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Aviation Transport Accident Statistics: Risk Assessment Data Directory
Aviation Transport Accident Statistics: Risk Assessment Data Directory
Aviation
transport
accident
statistics
International Association of Oil & Gas Producers
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The International Association of Oil & Gas Producers has access to a wealth of technical
knowledge and experience with its members operating around the world in many different
terrains. We collate and distil this valuable knowledge for the industry to use as guidelines
for good practice by individual members.
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RADD – Aviation transport accident statistics
contents
1.0 Scope and Application ........................................................... 1
1.1 Scope ............................................................................................................... 1
1.2 Application ...................................................................................................... 1
1.3 Definitions ....................................................................................................... 1
2.0 Summary of Recommended Data ............................................ 2
2.1 Helicopter Transport....................................................................................... 2
2.2 Fixed Wing Aircraft Transport ....................................................................... 4
3.0 Guidance on use of data ........................................................ 6
3.1 General validity ............................................................................................... 6
3.2 Uncertainties ................................................................................................... 6
3.3 Application of frequencies to specific locations ......................................... 6
3.3.1 Helicopter Risk ........................................................................................................... 7
3.3.2 Fixed Wing Aircraft Risk............................................................................................ 8
4.0 Review of data sources ......................................................... 9
4.1 Basis of data presented ................................................................................. 9
4.1.1 Helicopter Transport .................................................................................................. 9
4.1.2 Fixed Wing Aircraft Transport................................................................................. 15
4.2 Other data sources ....................................................................................... 18
4.2.1 Helicopter Transport ................................................................................................ 18
4.2.2 Fixed Wing Aircraft Transport................................................................................. 18
5.0 Recommended data sources for further information ............ 18
6.0 References .......................................................................... 19
6.1 Helicopter References .................................................................................. 19
6.2 Fixed Wing Aircraft References................................................................... 19
6.3 Other References .......................................................................................... 20
Appendix I – Statistical Methods .................................................... 21
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Abbreviations:
CAA (UK) Civil Aviation Authority
DNV Det Norske Veritas
E&P Exploration and Production
FAR Fatal Accident Rate
GoM Gulf of Mexico
ICAO International Civil Aviation Organisation
IR Individual Risk
MTOW Maximum Take Off Weight
NATS National Air Traffic Services
OGP Oil and Gas Producers
POB Personnel On Board
PLL Potential Loss of Life
QRA Quantitative Risk Assessment
SMS Safety Management System
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1.2 Application
This datasheet contains global data plus more detailed regional/national data where
relevant or where available. When using these data, it should be noted that they may
not be directly applicable to the specific location under study. Guidance on using
location specific data is given in Section 3.3.
1.3 Definitions
The data presented in Section 2.0 are for persons travelling by air during take-off,
flight and landing. They exclude risks to persons on the ground: ground staff,
flight/cabin crew and passengers boarding/leaving the air transport. Helicopter
transport risks also exclude non transport activities such as search and rescue
missions and winching.
Transport risks to persons are presented as:
• Individual Risk (IR): risk per year of fatality to a specific individual
• Fatal Accident Rate (FAR): risk of fatality per 108 exposed hours1
The following are used in the risk models presented in Sections 2.0 and 3.0:
• Probability of fatal accident Probability that an accident results in at least
one fatality
• Probability of death in fatal accident Probability of death for one individual
on board aircraft/helicopter involved in fatal
accident
1
It should be noted that FARs are convenient for describing the risk in individual activities
(e.g. working on the drill floor, flying in a helicopter). Unlike individual risks per year, they do
not require any assumptions about what the individual does for the rest of the year. However,
they may be misleading because they represent a rate of risk per unit time in the activity. FAR
values for offshore workers are typically based on 26 weeks’ exposure per year (for a 2 weeks
on, 2 weeks off rota pattern), equivalent to 4380 hours per person per year; the corresponding
helicopter transport exposure is of the order of 30 hours per year. Hence, in contrast to
individual risks per year, FARs cannot sensibly be added together. Whereas FAR values are in
the range 144 to 815 for offshore transport (see Table 2.3), the total FAR in offshore activities
may be only 10 to 20. Adding these values would give a misleading impression of the relative
contribution of helicopter risk to the overall risk. Although it may still be a significant
contributor to the total IR and PLL, it should be judged in the context of those measures, and
the helicopter FAR value should not be added to the FAR values from other risks. However, it
may be compared with FAR values for other modes of transport (e.g. fixed wing aircraft.)
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Data for the following helicopter activities are presented in Sections 2.1 and 4.1.1:
• Offshore (all offshore helicopter activity)
• Seism ic (onshore seismic surveys)
• Geophysical (onshore geophysical activity)
• Pipeline (onshore pipeline surveys and support)
• Other (all other onshore activity, e.g. crew changes, rig moves, non seismic
external loads)
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Table 2.2 Other Activities Helicopter Flight Accident Data for Risk
Estim ation Model
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Table 2.4 Average W orldwide W estern Jet Data (excluding hostile attacks
and personal accidents 1 )
Measure Value
2 -7
Fatal accident frequency per flight 6.2 × 10
2 -7
Fatal accident frequency per flight hour 3.4 × 10
-7
Individual risk per person flight 4.1 × 10
-7
Individual risk per person flight hour 2.3 × 10
FAR 23
Notes
1. Such as ground crew fatal injuries, slips, trips and falls.
2. Defined as fatality within 30 days of the accident. Excludes
fatal illnesses on board aircraft.
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other national or regional institutions, or the facility operator's or local air transport
operator's data.
Should local data not be available, or their reliability/applicability be uncertain, then
the data in this datasheet could be used after factoring for local circumstances.
However, data which have been adjusted to allow for local circumstances should
always be used with caution: the assumptions made are likely to be judgemental and
hence may reduce the reliability of the adjusted data vis-à-vis reality. Each
assumption should be clearly documented so that an audit trail is maintained.
3.3.1 Helicopter Risk
In Sections 3.1 and 3.3 the use of local data wherever possible is recommended.
However, the number of fatal accidents is relatively small. It is therefore
recom m ended that local accident frequencies, where available, are
com bined with the generic probabilities given in Section 2.1.
The following example illustrates how the data in Section 2.1 can be used to estimate
helicopter transport annual risks.
A North Sea installation crew member works 2 weeks on, 2 weeks off. The flight from
the heliport to their installation is in 2 stages (i.e. via another installation) and the total
time in the air is 1 hour. Their IR would be calculated as follows.
Total flight stages = 13 offshore trips/year × 2 flights/trip × 2 stages/flight = 52 stages/year
Total flight time = 13 offshore trips/year × 2 flights/trip × 1 hour/flight = 26 hours/year
In-flight IR = Accident frequency in-flight (8.5 × 10-6 per flight hour) ×
Flight time (26 hours/year) ×
Probability of fatal accident (0.20) ×
Probability of death in fatal accident (0.85)
-5
= 3.8 × 10 per year
TO/L IR = Accident frequency in TO/L (1.0 × 10-5 per flight stage) ×
No of flight stages (52/year) ×
× Probability of fatal accident (0.17) ×
× Probability of death in fatal accident (0.48)
-5
= 4.2 × 10 per year
Total IR = 3.8 × 10-5 + 4.2 × 10-5 per year = 8.0 × 10-5 per year
The annual PLL (Potential Loss of Life) from helicopter transport for the installation
can be calculated with the following additional information.
The platform POB is 48. 2 crews operate back-to-back. Helicopter transport is
provided by the S-76, which has a passenger capacity of 12. Hence each crew change
requires 4 helicopter flights.
Total PLL = Total IR × no. of crews × flights/crew × passengers/flight
=8.0 × 10-5 per year × 2 × 4 × 12 = 7.7 × 10-3
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However, it should be noted that in practice not all personnel visiting a platform work
exactly 2 weeks on, 2 weeks off. Additional personnel may be flown out for specific
tasks lasting perhaps just a few days; there may be visitors to the platform, perhaps
arriving and departing within the same day. Hence true risk estimates may vary
between individuals.
Sensitivity tests can involve applying extra (or fewer) modification factors to obtain
realistic ranges. For example in example 4 above, no trend factor was applied as older
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Table 4.2 Sum m ary of Other Operational and Accident Statistics 1998-2006
Seismic Flight Hours Take-Offs and Landings Accidents by heli type Fatals by heli type
Flight Accidents SE Fatal Fatalitie
Phase SE LT MT HT SE LT MT HT LT MT HT s SE LT MT HT s
In-flight 317,127 7,071 67,927 6,029 - - - - 18 17 0 1 0 5 4 0 1 0 7
Take-off - - - - - - - - 13 11 0 2 0 2 1 0 1 0 5
Landing - - - - - - - - 11 11 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1
TO/L - - - - 1,221,253 9,046 146,785 9,072 24 22 0 2 0 3 2 0 1 0 6
Pipeline Flight Hours Take-Offs and Landings Accidents by heli type Fatals by heli type
Flight Accidents SE Fatal Fatalitie
Phase SE LT MT HT SE LT MT HT LT MT HT s SE LT MT HT s
In-flight 183,288 6,832 25,312 6,138 - - - - 14 11 0 1 2 5 2 0 1 2 16
Take-off - - - - - - - - 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1
Landing - - - - - - - - 7 5 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 4
TO/L - - - - 189,149 8,144 96,940 18,385 8 6 0 1 1 2 1 0 1 0 5
Other Flight Hours Take-Offs and Landings Accidents by heli type Fatals by heli type
Flight Accidents SE Fatal Fatalitie
Phase SE LT MT HT SE LT MT HT LT MT HT s SE LT MT HT s
In-flight 175,687 21,465 99,741 131,271 - - - - 16 11 1 3 1 4 2 1 0 1 28
Take-off - - - - - - - - 5 4 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 3
Landing - - - - - - - - 12 8 1 1 2 2 0 0 1 1 2
TO/L - - - - 292,044 24,774 396,507 158,576 17 12 1 1 3 3 1 0 1 1 5
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Table 4.5 Individual Risks on Large W estern Com m ercial Jets, 1990-2002
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At the time of the analysis, these accident frequencies were not significantly different
from the frequencies for other regions. Note that, compared with the exposure and
accident statistics given in Table 4.1 and SE = Single Engine; LT = Light Twin; MT =
Medium Twin; HT = Heavy Twin
Table 4.2, the numbers of flights and accidents are small, giving wide confidence
limits on the results.
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[22] provides an interesting model for comparing risks of using different transport
modes. However, it does not present any advantages or improved data analysis
compared with those presented in the preceding sections (and in the datasheets Land
Transport Accident Statistics and Water Transport Accident Statistics).
6.0 References
6.1 Helicopter References
[1] OGP 1999. Safety performance of helicopter operations in the oil & gas
industry 1998, Report No. 6.83/300. http://www.ogp.org.uk/pubs/300.pdf
(No report published with 1999 data; see [9].)
[2] OGP 2002. Safety performance of helicopter operations in the oil & gas
industry: 2000 data, Report No. 6.61/333.
http://www.ogp.org.uk/pubs/333.pdf
[3] OGP 2003. Safety performance of helicopter operations in the oil & gas
industry: 2001 data, Report No. 341.
http://www.ogp.org.uk/pubs/341.pdf
[4] OGP 2004. Safety performance of helicopter operations in the oil & gas
industry: 2002 data, Report No. 354.
http://www.ogp.org.uk/pubs/354.pdf
[5] OGP 2005. Safety performance of helicopter operations in the oil & gas
industry: 2003 data, Report No. 366.
http://www.ogp.org.uk/pubs/366.pdf
[6] OGP 2006. Safety performance of helicopter operations in the oil & gas
industry: 2004 data, Report No. 371.
http://www.ogp.org.uk/pubs/371.pdf
[7] OGP 2007. Safety performance of helicopter operations in the oil & gas
industry: 2005 data, Report No. 401.
http://www.ogp.org.uk/pubs/401.pdf
[8] OGP 2007. Safety performance of helicopter operations in the oil & gas
industry: 2006 data, Report No. 402.
http://www.ogp.org.uk/pubs/402.pdf
[9] OGP, private com m unication, 2008. Helicopter operational data for
1999; additional data on helicopter accidents.
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[16] Roelen, A.L.C., Pikaar, A.J. & Ovaa, W ., 2000. An Analysis of the
Safety Performance of Air Cargo Operators, Report NLR-TP-2000-210,
National Aerospace Laboratory.
[17] CAA, UK Airline Statistics, Table 1 13 Public Transport Air Taxi Operations:
http://www.caa.co.uk/default.aspx?categoryid=80&pagetype=88&pageid=1&sglid=1
[18] NTSB. Accident Database and Synopses, 1962-present; query using
http://ntsb.gov/ntsb/query.asp
[19] Spouge, J.R., Smith, E.J., & Lewis, K.J., 1994. Helicopters or Boards – Risk
Management Options for Transport Offshore, SPE Paper No. 27277, Conf. on Health,
Safety & Environment in Oil & Gas Production, Jakarta, Society of Petroleum
Engineers.
[20] Collings, H., 1994. Comparative Accident Rates for Passengers by Model of
Transport – A Re-Visit, in Transport Statistics Great Britain 1994, Department of
Transport, London: HMSO.
[21] Leigh, J.P., 1995. Causes of Death in the Workplace, Quorum Books, Westport
CT, USA.
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The events may be accidents of a particular type, minor incidents with the potential to
lead to an accident, component failures or near misses. Examples are pipe leaks,
pump trips, ship collisions, lightning strikes, etc.
The associated exposure is a measure of size of the population from which the events
have been recorded. This is usually a number of items and/or a number of years. Both
the accident experience and the exposure must be comprehensive collections from
the same population.
This is a simple and convenient estimate, but may be an under-estimate if there are
few or no failures in the observed period. A more conservative estimate, which
assumes that a further failure was about to occur when the end of the period was
reached, is:
However, this is not normally used in QRA since it appears counter-intuitive, and is a
negligible correction for large numbers of failures.
In colloquial terms, this assumes that the system was '70% of the way to its first
failure' at the end of the observed period, or that '0.7 events' occurred in the period.
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It might be thought that the 95% confidence limit would be more appropriate for a
cautious best-estimate than the 50% limit. However, this would result in a frequency
equivalent to 3 events having occurred in the observed period (see below), which is
usually considered excessively conservative.
These imply a 90% chance that the true frequency lies within the stated range, a 5%
chance of it being lower than the lower limit, and a 5% chance of it being above the
upper limit. The upper limit as defined above takes account of the possibility that the
next event was about to occur when the end of the period was reached.
When no failures have occurred, the confidence limits cannot be expressed as
fractions of the mean (since this is zero). However, using a consistent approach, the
90% confidence range on the number of failures is then 0.05 to 3.0, with the 50%
confidence value being 0.7 as above.
These confidence ranges only take account of uncertainty due to estimating the
frequency from a small number of random events, assuming the underlying frequency
is constant. They do not take account of numerous other sources of uncertainty, such
as incomplete event data, inappropriate measures of exposure, trends in the
frequency etc. Therefore, the total uncertainty in the frequency may be much higher
than indicated, and the confidence limits estimated above may be misleading.
I.5 References
[23] Lees, F.P., 1996. Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 2nd. ed., Oxford:
Butterworth-Heinemann.
[24] CCPS, 1989. Chemical Process Quantitative Risk Analysis, Centre of Chemical
Process Safety, New York: American Institute of Chemical Engineers.
22 ©OGP
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