ISE500 Fall 2018

Assignment 04

Due on 09/17/2018 11:59 P.M. Individual Homework

Problem No. 1 Your car averages 18 miles to the gallon. 15% of the time you get more than
21 miles to the gallon. What is the standard deviation of your gas mileage? (0.1 points)
Definition of finding things in normal distribution

Problem No. 2 A slot machine in Las Vegas is set such that the probability of a player winning on
a given play is 49%. If a player plays one hundred times, what is the probability that he or she will
win more than 53 times? (0.1 points)

Problem No. 3 A class used the computer in class to determine whether we would have a
quiz or not 4 times. Each time it came out “Yes”. The probability is set at 70%.
a) Which distribution is applicable here and why? (0.1 points)
b) What is the probability of getting 4 yes’s as we did? Be sure to tell me how you got your
answer. (0.1 points)

Problem No. 4 You may remember getting toys for Christmas or your birthdays that your
parents had to assemble. One such toy requires the use of 18 bolts. Since the manufacturer
knows that he produces some defective bolts (about 6 % of his production), each package
contains two extra bolts, i.e., 20. What is the chance that your parents will not encounter a
defective bolt while assembling your toy? (0.2 points) hypergeometric

Problem No. 5 A car dealership averages 8 customers per day. What is the probability that 6
customers will come in tomorrow? (0.15 points)

Problem No. 6 I have to decide whether to go into a specific business or not. The probability
of the business succeeding is 70%.
If I do go into the business and it succeeds, I stand to make $100,000. If I do not go into the
business, I will make $8,000 on my money by investing in the bank. However, if I do go into
the business and it fails, I will lose most of my money ($200,000). Mathematically should I go
into the business? Why? What would you do under these circumstances?( 0.25 points) tree
diagram

Problem No. 7 A test has the capability to detect a defect with 98% accuracy. It also tends to
indicate a defect when there is none about 1% of the time. About 1 in 2000 test subjects has
a defect. What is the probably of that a subject chosen at random and is indicated to have a
defect, really does have a defect? (0.25 points) base rates

Problem No. 8 Given a distribution with a minimum of 2 and a maximum of 14, what are the
70th percentiles for a normal distribution, a uniform distribution and symmetrical beta and
triangular distributions? (0.25 points)