Name: Ananth Ramesh Assignment 4

USC ID: 9441892027

Date: 9/16/2018

Average = 18 miles to the gallon

We need to calculate the Z score to identify the standard deviation

To get more than 21 gallons, there is a 15% probability
Therefore, to get <= 21 gallons, there is a (1-15=85%) probability
we can obtain the Z score using the standard normal inverse function
Z-score = 1.0364333895
Mean = 18
b = 21

The formula for calculating SD is given by, SD = (b-Mean)/Z-score

SD= 2.894542
The problem can be solved using binomial probability distribution

No. of successes = >53 times (let us consider this as number of failures)

Total no. of trials = 100
Fixed probability for the population = 0.49

P(winning at most 53 times) = 0.815982

P(winning more than 53 times) = 1- P(winning at most 53 times) = 18.4%
a) We should use Binomial distribution since it satisfies the four assumptions to identify a Binomial distribution
1. The experiment consists of a sequence of n smaller experiments called trials,
where n is fixed in advance of the experiment.
2. Each trial can result in one of the same two possible outcomes (dichotomous
trials), which we generically denote by success (S) and failure (F).
3. The trials are independent, so that the outcome on any particular trial does not
influence the outcome on any other trial.
4. The probability of success P(S) is constant from trial to trial; we denote this
probability by p.

b) The probability of getting 4 yes's is obtained by using the excel function for binomial distribution

Where, no. of successes = 4

no. of trials = 4
probability of success for the entire population is fixed at 0.7
it is not cumulative since we want to find the probability of getting exactly 4 yes's

P(4 yes's) = 24.01%

to identify a Binomial distribution -

or binomial distribution

g exactly 4 yes's
Number of good bolts
that are needed to No. of
assemble the toy 18 samples 18

Percentage of defective bo 6%

Total number of bolts in

the package 20 (population)

Number of defective Number of

bolts in the package 1 good bolts 19 (success in population)

Using hypergeometric distribution, we can find the probability of not encountering a defective bolt in the package

Therefore, probability of
not encountering a
defective bolt is 0.10
olt in the package
 Avg. No. of customers = 8
Customers expected the next day = 6

Probability of 6 customers coming in

the next day is found out by Poisson
distribution probability, 12.21% (by using poisson distribution)
 Probability of success is = 0.7 P(success) P(failure) = 0.3
Probability of going into business = Probability of investing money into bank = 0.5

Forming a decision tree, we get,

P(Business) P(success) 0.7

0.5
P(failure) 0.3

P(Bank)
0.5

Therefore, Probability of succeeding in Business = 35%

Probability of failing in Business = 15%

Under the circumstances, going into business and earning $100,000 has a 35% chance of succeeding.
Since losing $200K has 15% probability of happening, it makes sense to go into business since the probability of m
 P(Business) = P(Bank)

5% chance of succeeding.
o business since the probability of making money is more than the probability of losing it
Defect Test
Base Rate = 0.0005 (no. of defective parts in 2000 test subjects)
Non-defective parts = 0.9995

False positive rate = 0.01

False negative rate = 0.0200
Defect Indicator = D
Probability (defect) = 0.0005 = p(defect)
Probaility (non-defect) = 0.9995 = p(non-defect)

Probability (testing defect,

given that subject has
defect) = p(D|defect) = 0.98

Probability (testing defect,

given that subject has no
defect) = p(D|non-defect) = 0.01

From Baye's Theorem,

p(defect|D) = [p(D|defect)*p(defect)]/[p(D|defect)*p(defect) + p(D|non-defect)*p(non-defect)]

Probability (defect|D) = 4.67334%

If the test shows defective, it is 93.4668574154

 Probability(accurately
identifying defect for all
defects among test
subjects) = P(D|defect)*P(defect) = 0.00049

Probability(falsely
identifying as defect even
though it has no defect) = P(D|non-defect)*P(defect) = 0.009995

Probability(identifying defect
regardless of test subject
t)*p(non-defect)] condition) = 0.010485

times more likely to be defective

min 2
max 14

Normal Distribution for 70th percentile 0.7

9.048801 (norm.inv)
0.7 (norm.dist)

Uniform Distribution for 70th percentile 0.7

Range 12
10.4

Beta distribution for 70th percentile 0.7

alpha 4 9.137112 (beta.inv)

beta 4
0.7 (beta.dist)

Triangular distribution for 70th percentile