Increasing Passing Attempts Per Game Have

Affected Passer Rating Positively

By: Ryan Rice

Abstract
Abstract. The National Football League (NFL) has notably become more of a “pass-first” league
within the recent years. Number of attempts has increased, and game-scripts have become far
more driven by passing on early downs. In this report, I will analyze how average passing
attempts across the league have changed since 1960. I will utilize these statistics to compare with
the most well-known Quarterback Efficiency statistic: Passer Rating. I will also use statistics
from pro-football-reference.com to analyze how average passer rating has changed since 1960.
Because Passer Rating is an efficiency measure, attempts should not directly increase its value.
Thus, it will be interesting to see if attempts correlate in any way to passer rating.

1. Introduction
The NFL is a league with rich history. Since the creation of the league in 1920, it has seen the style of play of its
teams drastically change over time. The normal game-flow has changed from being largely run-dominated to a
current day passing domination. We will see in this report how passing attempts per game has been increasing
since 1960. I will be comparing 2 variables to see the relationship between them since 1960. The variables are:
average passing attempts per game and average passer rating. Many NFL fans are familiar with the passer rating
statistic. It is a statistic used to measure the efficiency of a QB for a particular game and can be averaged across
a season. This statistic is calculated by the formula shown below. As seen in the equation, all of the variables
include statistics per attempt. Thus, the number of attempts itself should in theory not impact the value of the
passer rating calculated by the formula. However,
through analysis, we will see that there tends to be a
positive relationship. My aim is to show this relationship.
In Section 2 of the report, I will describe my data
collections process. In Section 3, I will display my data and results. In Section 4, I will analyze the data and
results, and I will describe the relationships and correlations between the variables, along with providing some
external context to explain the trends. In Section 5, I will conclude the report.

2. Data and Statistical Models

To gather data for this report, I utilized pro-football-reference.com. I first searched for data that displayed
average yearly passing attempts per game as well as yearly passer rating average. I was able to find a table that
displayed both statistics. In order to get a fairly large sample size, I utilized the statistics from 1960 – Present. I
then exported this data to Excel. I went through and deleted all columns not related to my study. Then, I made a
couple of graphs. I made one that displayed the change in passing attempts for every year since 1960. I then
made another displaying the change in passer rating for every year since 1960. Then I made one graph
displaying both the yearly passing attempts and yearly passer rating for each year since 1960.

3. Results
This graph shows how total passing attempts per game increased each year since 1960 until 2019. The increase
is fairly consistent, with a few outliers in between. In 1960, average total attempts by both teams added to 26.4.
Now in 2019, we see that total at 35.1. This is an 8.7 increase in passing attempts.
 Passing Attempts Per Game Since 1960
40
Passing Attempts Per Game

35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

2008
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006

2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
Years

This graph shows how average total passer rating has changed each year since 1960. The increase is also fairly
consistent, with a few outliers. It is important to note that passer rating does dip a decent amount around the
same time passing attempts dipped in the 70’s. In 1960, the average passer rating was 64.2. Now in 2019, we
see the total at 94.2. This is a drastic 30-point increase.

Passer Rating Each Year Since 1960

100
90
80
70
Passer Rating

60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1998
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996

2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018

Year
This graph takes the data from the previous two graphs and plots them onto one plane. It is not extremely
detailed as the scale for passer rating is in the upper 100’s and attempts are in the 20’s and 30’s, but the graph
serves as a simple visual comparison between the two variables.

Average Pass Attempts vs. Average Passer Rating by Year

100
90
Pass Attempts & Passer Rating

80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0

Year
Attempts Passer Rating

4. Analysis of Results
This data provided somewhat predictable, yet interesting results. We see that since 1960, passing attempts have
increased all the way from 26.4 to 35.1 in the most recent year. This is a 33% increase. We also see that since
1960, average passer rating has increased all the way from 64.2 to 94.2 in the most recent year. This is a 47%
increase. We could just assume that passing attempts have a direct effect on passing rating and passing more
will equate to a better passer rating score. However, the passer rating formula does not change for attempts.
Rather, it only increases based on success per attempt. For example, yards per attempt, TD’s per attempt, and
other measures effect passer rating. Attempts themselves do not impact the rating. Therefore, something else is
going on to provide the positive correlation. Next, we need to look at other factors that could be increasing
passer rating as time goes on. One theory for the increase in passer rating is the development of youth football.
Vox.com states that 2.5 million boys aged 5-13 play tackle football each year. This high number of youth
players is making the development process for skill positions like Quarterbacks begin much earlier. This early
development could be leading to higher performance which is operating like a trickle-down effect all the way to
high school, then college, and finally the NFL. Another theory to explain the passer rating increase is the
emphasis on passing in the NFL in general. Certain teams like the Dan Marino-led Dolphins really
revolutionized the way the game is played. Dan Marino threw a record (at the time) 48 touchdowns in the 1984
season. This led them to a 14-2 record and an incredibly effective, high scoring offense. BleacherReport.com
states this season as one that was incredibly impactful to the style of play within the NFL. The theory is that
other teams took note of offenses such as Marino’s and began to play copy-cat football. After decades of
perfecting the passing offense, we now see Quarterbacks that are much more refined and have the decision-
making key to producing a high passer rating. Furthermore, teams perfecting the passing offense over time have
developed complicated, effective playbooks with diverse route trees designed to help the QB have a multitude
of options when scanning the field. This second theory that I have introduced is really the idea of “practice
makes perfect”. The third and final theory to explain the passer rating increase I would like to introduce is the
idea that “opportunity breeds confidence.” With the average passing attempts per game being only 26.4 in 1960,
Quarterbacks did not have as great of an opportunity to grow their confidence in their ability to pass the ball
effectively. With QB’s now averaging over 35 attempts per game in total, they have infinitely more ability to
grow as a player, both physically, and mentally. Peakendurancesport.com cites confidence as “sureness of
feeling that you are equal to the task at hand.” With Quarterbacks being more and more exposed to the task of
throwing high volumes of passes, they are able to grow their confidence within their play, and it is showing
within their passer ratings.

5. Conclusion
To conclude this report, we have seen how the style of play has evolved in the NFL over the last 58-59 years.
Specifically, we have seen how passing attempts have increased, and passer rating has increased accordingly,
but to a higher degree. We have also seen that while we at first glance would assume more passing attempts will
always lead to a higher passer rating, the passer rating formula is not directly affected by number of attempts.
Rather, passer rating is affected by the ability to capitalize on these attempts. Thus, we concluded that passer
rating must be improving due to other factors than just increased passing attempts. One theory suggests the vast
increase in youth development is improving QB play. The second theory suggests that practice makes perfect,
so increasing attempts are just sharpening QB skills and making them more effective. The third theory suggests
that increased attempts are making QB’s more confident in their abilities. While further studies can be
conducted to better understand the reason for passer rating improvements, that is beyond the scope of this
report. Perhaps, it is something I will further research in the future. The NFL is a constantly evolving league,
and Quarterback efficiency is no different.

6. References
Hogg, Curt. “5 Wide: The Evolution Of The Quarterback.” Bleacher Report, Bleacher Report, 30 Sept. 2017,
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/313993-5-wide-the-evolution-of-the-quarterback.
Nowinski, Chris. “Youth Tackle Football Will Be Considered Unthinkable 50 Years from Now.” Vox, Vox, 3 Apr. 2019,
https://www.vox.com/2019/3/27/18174368/football-concussion-brain-injury-cte-youth-football.
“NFL Season By Season Passing.” Pro, https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/passing.htm.
“Sports Psychology: Self-Confidence in Sport – Make Your Ego Work for You!” Peak Performance, 17 Feb. 2017,
https://www.peakendurancesport.com/endurance-psychology/coping-with-emotions/sports-psychology-self-
confidence-sport-make-ego-work/.
“Sports Psychology: What Really Makes A Great Quarterback?” Sport Psychology: Sport Psychology Programs For
Athletes, Their Parents, Spouses And Coaches, https://stayinthezone.com/sports-psychology-what-really-makes-
a-great-quarterback/.