‘AL-QAEDA 3.

0’ - EXPANDING CAPABILITIES IN THE WAKE

OF THE CALIPHATE’S DECLINE
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Contrary to claims of the terror-group’s looming irrelevance this decade, Al-Qaeda (AQ) remains a deadly
Islamist terrorist organization that poses a genuine critical threat to Western interests. Terrorism experts
believe that in the wake of the recent decline of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), Al-Qaeda seeks
to retain its primacy within the Salafist global terror movement. Al-Qaeda, as a core organization, has
become less structured, and more loosely-comprised of like-minded groups that sometimes cooperate
(and other times do not). Referred to recently as ‘Al-Qaeda 3.0’ by terrorism expert Bruce Riedel at the
Brookings Institution, the organization has expanded its number of affiliate groups and regions of
influence in the Middle East and Africa, with mixed results in successfully carrying out planned attacks
over the past decade. Yet AQ remains focused on its long-term goal of “weakening and destroying
America,”1 and while it continues to utilize tried and true methods in dealing with its “near enemies,” the
terror organization continues to view the realm of aviation as part of its overall strategy at targeting its
“far enemies,” including the U.S.
According to the most recent Worldwide Threat Assessment issued by the Office of the Director of
National Intelligence Dan Coats (2018), “[Al-Qaeda] ...will remain a major actor in global terrorism because
of the combined staying power of its five affiliates.” Yet while the “primary threat to US and Western
interests from [Al-Qaeda’s] global network ...will be in or near affiliates’ operating areas,” the report also
notes that Al-Qaeda leaders and affiliated media will continue to call for its followers to carry out attacks
in the West. However, some U.S. intelligence analysts currently believe these appeals are not likely to
create a spike in inspired attacks since few such attacks have materialized since 2010.
Yet other intelligence services have publicly acknowledged that the terrorist group will continue to pursue
its goal of attacking an airliner or cargo flights through the technological innovation of explosive materials.
In an interview with The Sunday Times in December 2018, the United Kingdom’s (UK) Security Minister
Ben Wallace warned that “a ‘resurgent’ Al-Qaeda is targeting Europe for terror attacks against airliners
and airports. [...] They have explored other ways of getting bombs on planes....” The UK government is
reportedly investing over $32 million into researching how to protect planes from new methods of
explosion as well as “insider threats.” Preventing terrorists from seizing the initiative and using innovative
new technologies and tactics is also a key aspect of U.S. homeland security policy.

BACKGROUND & EVOLUTION

It is the view of Western government officials and terrorism analysts that Al-Qaeda remains a prevalent
threat to the West, primarily due to their fascination with aviation as a tool for terror. Since the attacks
of September 11, 2001, the group has consistently pursued engineering new IEDs (improvised explosive
devices) able to circumvent security, either via suicide bombers as passengers, or as cargo embedded with
explosive devices. Notable attempts include:

 December 22, 2001: British national Richard Reid’s unsuccessful attempt to detonate an explosive
device packed into his shoes on American Airlines Flight 63 from Paris to Miami. According to FBI

1 William Rosenau and Alexander Powell. Al-Qaeda Core: A Case Study. CNA Corporation, October 2017.
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forensic analysis, the chemicals PETN and TATP (triacetone triperoxide), were identified as those
packed into the hollowed portion of the shoes. Reid had traveled to Afghanistan where he trained
and became a member of al-Qaeda.
 August 2006 transatlantic aircraft plot: On August 9, 24 suspects were arrested in and around London
in connection to a terror plot to detonate liquid explosives across several aircraft destined for the U.S.
and Canada. The plot was discovered by British police during an extensive surveillance operation,
resulting in unprecedented security measures installed at airports. According to Metropolitan Police
reports, the plotters had perfected a technique of using household objects, including powdered
drinks, batteries, and explosive peroxide-based liquids including TATP (acetone peroxide), along with
improvised detonators, and planned to smuggle these items in hollowed-out beverage containers into
the plane’s cabin. While the plot was not formally claimed by AQ, then-Department of Homeland
Security (DHS) Secretary Michael Chertoff stated evidence was "suggestive of an al-Qaeda plot."2
 December 25, 2009: Nigerian-born Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, attempts to blow up Northwest
Airlines Flight 253 with a bomb in his underwear. While he managed to ignite the bomb, injuring
himself and two other passengers, the main charge failed detonate, and the airplane safely landed in
Detroit. Abdulmutallab had attended a training camp in the Shabwah region of Yemen, where he
reportedly met with Anwar al-Awlaki, the spiritual leader of AQ affiliate AQAP (Al-Qaeda in the
Arabian Peninsula) several times. Al-Awlaki was killed in a CIA-direct drone strike in Yemen on
September 30, 2011.
 October 2010: Authorities in the UK and U.S. are alerted to the detection of explosive materials, or
IEDs (improvised explosive devices) inside the ink cartridges of two boxed computer printers due to
be loaded on U.S. bound cargo flights. According to officials, the sophisticated devices, due to be
transported on separate UPS and FedEx planes, originated in Yemen, and at least one of the packages
was reportedly transported on a passenger flight before it was discovered by authorities. One package
was held in Dubai while the other in the U.K. for further inspection. Both U.S. and British officials
suspected the devices were intended to detonate while on the planes. AQAP claimed responsibility
for the plot in a November 2010 issue of Inspire, the group’s propaganda magazine.3
 February 2, 2016: One suicide bomber was killed and two others injured in an explosion on a Daallo
Airlines flight bound for Turkey which blew a hole in the shell of the airplane. According to
investigators, the device was unable to down the aircraft as it was detonated 20 minutes into the
flight when the plane was at 12,000 feet, and before reaching cruising altitude. The suspected bomber
was reportedly blown out of the plane and his body recovered on the ground near Mogadishu. Two
passengers on board were also injured. Investigators found parts of a laptop computer in the
wreckage, and determined the explosive device, which contained military grade TNT, was hidden

2 The attempted bombings appear to have been intended as a coordinated attack—a common characteristic of attacks
by al-Qaeda and its affiliated groups. (START 2010)
3
Ibid. AQAP’s English-language Inspire magazine, first published in June 2010, included an “Open Source Jihad”
section, which was continued in later issues. The section was seen as a “primer for would-be terrorists...” (AEI 2018)
AQAP also took credit for the September crash of a UPS cargo flight in Dubai. However, U.S. and U.A.E. officials
concluded that the crash was not an act of terrorism .
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inside. According to media reports, given the location of the suicide bomber with the laptop on the
plane, the blast likely would have set off a catastrophic secondary explosion in the fuel tank if the
plane had reached cruising altitude.4 AQ affiliate al-Shabaab, a group not known at the time for its
technical sophistication with explosives, is believed to have worked with AQAP bombmakers in
crafting the device.

AQAP (AL-QAEDA IN THE ARABIAN PENINSULA)

According to terrorism analysts, AQAP became Al-Qaeda’s primary link for conducting attacks in the early
2010s. The group’s sanctuary in Yemen has enabled AQAP to recruit, vet, and train foreigners for attacks,
including Americans. Yemen therefore serves as a critical safe haven to support Al-Qaeda’s global
operations.
Saudi citizen Ibrahim Hassan al Asiri, AQAP’s late bomb maker, trained others in his tradecraft, and is
believed to have created the explosive devices used in the 2009 Christmas Day bombing attempt as well
as the printer-cartridge devices discovered by authorities in October 2010. AQAP is regarded as a pivotal
facilitator of Al-Qaeda’s global operations, with AQAP-trained bombmakers sent to assist AQ affiliates in
Syria and Libya in 2011 and 2012. Counterterrorism experts widely believe that of all of Al-Qaeda’s
regional affiliates, AQAP is the most active organization seeking to carry out a successful attack inside the
United States.5
According to U.S. authorities, AQAP continues to pursue the remote radicalization of U.S. citizens, while
also planning to carry out an attention- grabbing terrorist bombing on U.S. soil. In the November 2010
issue of the groups’ Inspire magazine, AQAP claimed that the October 2010 air cargo bomb plot was part
of a long-term strategy to launch many small-scale attacks against the United States.6 Thus analysts
believe that the longer the war in Yemen continues, the more al-Qaeda will benefit from the instability
and chaos it provides to obscure their plans. Former AQAP leader Nasir al-Wuhayshi, a disciple of Osama
bin Laden, was known as “a firm believer in taking jihad to faraway enemies.”7 Yemeni-born Qasim al-
Raymi, the current emir of AQAP, is equally as zealous in attacking the U.S., releasing a message in July
2015 calling for renewed attacks against the U.S.: "All of you must direct and gather your arrows and
swords against [America]."8
The group remains supremely significant since its founding in 2009. During his lifetime, cleric Anwar al-
Awlaki was pivotal in inspiring multiple terrorist plots and attacks in the U.S., UK, and Canada. Cases
include the London suicide bombings in 2005, the radical Islamic terror attacks in Toronto in 2006, the
2007 Fort Dix attack plot, the jihadist-perpetrated shooting in 2009 at the Little Rock military recruiting

4 'Sophisticated' laptop bomb on Somali plane got through X-ray machine. CNN.com, February 2, 2016.
5 Al Qaeda and Affiliates: Historical Perspective, Global Presence, and Implications for U.S. Policy. Congressional
Research Service (CRS), January 25, 2011.
6 Al-Qaeda and U.S. Policy: Middle East and Africa. Congressional Research Service, August 11, 2016.
7 Al-Wuhayshi was killed in a U.S. drone strike in Yemen on 12 June 2015; he was replaced by the group’s military

commander, Qasim al-Raymi.

8 "New AQAP leader renews allegiance to the 'beloved father,' Ayman al Zawahiri". The Long War Journal. July 9

2015.
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office, and the 2010 Times Square bomber. In each case the suspects were devoted to al-Awlaki's
message, which they listened to online and on audio compact disks.
According to officials with the Federal Bureau of Investigation, al-Awlaki was a known, important "senior
recruiter for al Qaeda," and a spiritual motivator.9 It is unclear if any one individual has attained the same
degree of infamy and influence within the organization.

AL-QAEDA “CORE”
Core al-Qaeda,10 based in Afghanistan since 1988, has been involved in fewer international attacks and
plots over the past five years, a dramatic decline from a decade ago. One of the last core Al-Qaeda driven
plots was in 2009, when Afghan-American Najibullah Zazi planned suicide attacks against the subway
system in New York City. The bombing attacks at the April 2013 Boston Marathon by the Tsarnaev brothers
were also said to be inspired by al-Qaeda. Yet Al-Qaeda is viewed as more formidable when its affiliate
organizations are factored into the whole: Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), al Shabab in
Somalia,11 Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), and the al-Nusra Front in Syria.
Ayman al-Zawahiri, an eye surgeon who helped found the Egyptian militant group Islamic Jihad, was
named as the new leader of al-Qaeda in June 2011, a few weeks after the targeted assassination of Osama
Bin Laden. Since the initial defeat of the Taliban in 2002 by U.S. forces, al-Zawahiri is believed to be in
hiding in the Afghan-Pakistan border region, and continues to evade capture. Although considered a
“technocrat” lacking in charisma by some observers, Zawahiri has been one of al-Qaeda's most prominent
spokesman, appearing in dozens of videos and audiotapes since 2003. In his most recent video posted in
March 2018, entitled "America is the First Enemy of the Muslims," al-Zawahiri defends the Muslim
Brotherhood and claims that the US is "working with Saudi Arabia to train imams and rewrite religious
textbooks."12

PREEMPTIVE MEASURES
The two packages discovered in the October 2010 incident were discovered not through routine screening
by government or airline workers, but because intelligence agents operating in several countries became
aware of the plot and alerted swift-acting authorities in England and the United Arab Emirates, who were
able to intercept the packages before being loaded. The packages reportedly contained pentaerythritol
tetranitrate (PETN), a military-grade white powder plastic explosive, the same explosive used by the Umar
Farouk Abdulmutallab in December 2009. Explosives such as PETN are odorless and almost impossible to

9 Fort Hood shooting: radical Islamic preacher also inspired July 7 bombers". The Daily Telegraph, November 23,
2009.
10 Also known as Al-Qaeda Central
11 Al-Qaeda affiliate al Shabaab serves as a key link between the Middle East and Africa for the Al-Qaeda network,

having gained ground in Somalia

12 “Al-Qaeda's remaining leaders.” BBC News, June 16, 2015.; “Al Qaeda chief Al Zawahiri defends Muslim

Brotherhood in new video.” The National, March 22, 2009.

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detect by x-ray machines. TATP (triacetone triperoxide), the explosive used by Richard Reid in 2001, is
regarded as too volatile to successfully carry on-board to a flight and detonate.
In 2007, the TSA moved to install new screening technologies into airports across the country, with the
most well-known device a so-called “back scanner ray.” This apparatus reportedly transmits radiation
through a person’s clothing where it bounces off the skin or other objects with relatively high atomic
density. Less well known is millimeter wave scanning, which according to technology experts sends an
electromagnetic wave between the 1- and 10-millimeter range toward the subject, passing through the
person’s clothing. The beam is said to bounce off of skin as well as explosive materials, cash and liquids.
Most millimeter wave scanners are also equipped with automated target recognition software, allowing
the machine to better identify strange objects. According to recent guidelines issued by the
Transportation Security Administration (TSA), the technology currently available for the purpose of
detecting any potentially explosive materials inside cargo includes: non-Computed Tomography (Non-CT)
Transmission X-Ray Devices; Explosive Trace Detection (ETD) Devices; Electronic Metal Detection (EMD)
Devices; and Explosive Detection Systems (EDS).13
Recent counter-terrorism research indicates that terror groups are exchanging technology and know-how
more successfully than in the past. AQAP’s base in Yemen is considered optimal for this purpose; Yemen’s
much poorer population is more disperse, rural, and geographically isolated than its neighbors. The
central government, known for its poor governance and corruption, remains unable to exercise any direct
control over several of its own governorates without first seeking tribal support. According to the
testimonies of former AQ fighters, such camp and battlefield environments are ideal for improving
fighters’ military capabilities, from building improvised explosive devices (IEDS), to refining their
counterintelligence skills as well as practicing complex attacks.
The latest and most relevant response by the federal government in dealing with the evolving threats
from explosive devices is the TSA’s (Transportation Security Administration) recognition in October 2018
of the FAA Reauthorization Act of 2018, which includes the TSA Modernization Act. The bill authorizes TSA
to enhance its established use of explosive detection canines, or EDCs, by employing qualified third-party
explosives detection canine teams. Canine explosives screening has consistently proven to be more
efficient, accurate, and quicker over other methods (i.e. x-ray, CTX, explosive trace), and can dramatically
reduce acceptance time at air cargo facilities, which translate into faster processing of freight at cargo
terminals and reducing truck detention times.

13 TSA Air Cargo Screening Technology List (ACSTL), Version 10.7. Release Date: August 27, 2018.
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SOURCES
Al-Qa’ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). START - National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and
Responses to Terrorism. April 2015.

“Al Qaeda chief Al Zawahiri defends Muslim Brotherhood in new video.” The National, March 22, 2009.
https://www.thenational.ae/world/mena/al-qaeda-chief-al-zawahiri-defends-muslim-brotherhood-in-
new-video-1.715209

“Al-Qaeda's remaining leaders.” BBC News, June 16, 2015. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-south-

asia-11489337

Background Report: Package Bombs on Cargo Planes November 1, 2010. START - National Consortium for
the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism. November 1, 2010.

Bruce Hoffman, Council on Foreign Relations. Al-Qaeda’s Resurrection. March 6, 2018.

Bruce Riedel. “Al-Qaeda gains ground in Yemen war.” Al-Monitor, April 3, 2015. http://www.al-
monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/04/al-qaeda-benefits-yemen-war.html

CNN.com. "Security chief: Airline terror plot 'close to execution'" CNN. Archived from the original on 22
February 2011. http://www.cnn.com/2006/US/08/10/us.security/index.html

CNN Library - AQAP Fast Facts. CNN.com, updated 11:25 PM ET, Wed September 5, 2018.

Country Reports on Terrorism 2012 (May 2013). U.S. Department of State, Bureau of Counterterrorism,
released May 2013.
https://www.state.gov/documents/organization/210204.pdf

Daniel R. Coats, Director of National Intelligence. STATEMENT FOR THE RECORD WORLDWIDE THREAT
ASSESSMENT of the US INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY February 13, 2018

Daniel L. Byman and Jennifer R. Williams. Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula at a crossroads in Yemen.
Lawfare-Brookings Institution. April 21, 2015

DANIEL BYMAN, JENNIFER R. WILLIAMS. “Al Qaeda Is Losing the Battle for Jihadi Hearts and Minds.”
ForeignPolicy.com, August 19, 2015. https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/08/19/al-qaeda-losing-battle-jihadi-
hearts-minds-zawahiri-tape/

Eric Schmitt and Saeed Al‐Batati. The U.S. Has Pummeled Al Qaeda in Yemen. But the Threat Is Barely
Dented. The New York Times, Dec. 30, 2017.
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Fort Hood shooting: radical Islamic preacher also inspired July 7 bombers". The Daily Telegraph, November
23, 2009.

Humund, Carla E. Al-Qaeda and U.S. Policy: Middle East and Africa. Congressional Research Service,
R43756, August 11, 2016.

John Rollins. Al Qaeda and Affiliates: Historical Perspective, Global Presence, and Implications for U.S.
Policy. Congressional Research Service (CRS), January 25, 2011.

Katherine Zimmerman. AQAP: A Resurgent Threat. CTC Sentinel, September 2015.

Katherine Zimmerman, American Enterprise Institute. Statement before the House Committee on
Homeland Security Subcommittee on Counterterrorism and Intelligence on “The Persistent Threat: Al
Qaeda’s Evolution and Resilience.” July 13, 2017.

Katherine Zimmerman. Terrorism, Tactics, and Transformation: The West vs. The Salafi-Jihadi
Movement. American Enterprise Institute (AEI), November 2018.

Kim Cragin, Peter Chalk, et al. Sharing the Dragon’s Teeth: Terrorist Groups and the Exchange of New
Technologies. RAND Homeland Security Program, 2007.

Kriel, Cruickshank. “'Sophisticated' laptop bomb on Somali plane got through X-ray machine.” CNN.com,
February 2, 2016. https://www.cnn.com/2016/02/11/africa/somalia-plane-bomb/index.html

"New AQAP leader renews allegiance to the 'beloved father,' Ayman al Zawahiri". The Long War Journal,
July 9 2015.
https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2015/07/new-aqap-leader-renews-allegiance-to-the-beloved-
father-ayman-al-zawahiri.php

Patrick Tucker. “How Scared Should You Be of Al Qaeda’s New Butt Bomb?” DefenseOne.com, January 14,
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bomb/102906/

Seth G. Jones, The RAND Corporation. Rebuilding the Base How Al-Qaida Could Resurge. CT-479 Testimony
presented before the House Homeland Security Committee, Subcommittee on Counterterrorism and
Intelligence on July 13, 2017.

Shane, Scott. "Born in U.S., a Radical Cleric Inspires Terror". The New York Times, September 6,
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Sherwell, Philip; Duncan Gardham. "Fort Hood shooting: radical Islamic preacher also inspired July 7
bombers". The Daily Telegraph, November 23, 2009.
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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/6630555/Fort-Hood-shooting-
radical-Islamic-preacher-also-inspired-July-7-bombers.html

'Sophisticated' laptop bomb on Somali plane got through X-ray machine. CNN.com, February 2, 2016.

Statement for the Record. Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community. February
13, 2018. (10)

TSA Air Cargo Screening Technology List (ACSTL), Version 10.7. Release Date: August 27, 2018.
https://www.tsa.gov/sites/default/files/non-ssi_acstl.pdf

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William Rosenau and Alexander Powell. Al-Qaeda Core: A Case Study. CNA Corporation, October 2017.