Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Technical Analysis Wisdom - Nishant Arora
Technical Analysis Wisdom - Nishant Arora
Technical Analysis Wisdom - Nishant Arora
1. However, in this specific stock's case, there is a hidden bullish divergence with RSI, Stoch
and MACD. The reason I've used MACD here is that between both the points, price was
trending all the time, first uptrend and then downtrend. MACD is a wonderful tool for trending
environments while RSI/Stoch is better is non-trendling environments. Moreover, as I said a
divergence with MACD or RSI or Stoch, all mean different things. But as a thumb rule, MACD
works in trends while RSI/Stoch work in non-trending scenario.
2. MACD for trends an RSI/Stoch for ranges
3. Hidden Bullish Divergence With RSI on Daily Chart
At A, price is 50
At B, price is 70
At A, RSI is 65
At B, RSI is 55
This is a clear hidden bullish divergence.
At A, RSI was 65
Means, 100-[100/(1+RS)] = 65
which means that RS = 1.85 (Do the maths yourself)
Which means that at A, the average gains of past 14 days were 1.85 times more than average losses.
At B, RSI was 55
Means, 100-[100/(1+RS)] = 55
which means that RS = 1.2 (Do the maths yourself)
Which means that at B, the average gains of past 14 days were 1.2 times more than average losses.
But price was greater at B despite the fact that average gains over losses figure dropped at B as
compared to A.
At A, price is 50
At B, price is 70
At A, RSI is 40
At B, RSI is 30
At A, RSI was 40
Means, 100-[100/(1+RS)] = 40
which means that RS = 0.67 (Do the maths yourself)
Which means that at A, the average gains of past 14 days were 0.67 times more than average losses. In
another way of saying, average losses were 1.5 times more than average gains.
At B, RSI was 30
Means, 100-[100/(1+RS)] = 30
which means that RS = 0.43 (Do the maths yourself)
Which means that at B, the average gains of past 14 days were 0.43 times more than average losses. In
another way of saying, average losses were 2.3 times more than average gains.
But price was greater at B despite the fact that average losses over gains figure increased at B as
compared to A.
At A, price is 50
At B, price is 70
At A, RSI is 65
At B, RSI is 40
At A, RSI was 65
Means, 100-[100/(1+RS)] = 65
which means that RS = 0.67 (Do the maths yourself)
Which means that at A, the average gains of past 14 days were 2.85 times more than average losses.
At B, RSI was 40
Means, 100-[100/(1+RS)] = 40
which means that RS = 0.43 (Do the maths yourself)
Which means that at B, the average gains of past 14 days were 0.67 times more than average losses. In
another way of saying, average losses were 1.5 times more than average gains.
But price was greater at B despite the fact that at A average gains of past 14 days were more than
average losses and at B, average losses of past 14 days were more than average gains.
The crux is that Price rose despite the fact the average gains decreased or average losses increased,
whatever way you want to put it.
It means that, DESPITE A FALL IN POSITIVE MOMENTUM, PRICE MANAGED TO STAND ITS
COURSE HENCE BULLISH. WHAT IS MOMENTUM SHOWN BY RSI? IT IS THAT OVER
LAST 14 DAYS, THE PRICE, ON AN AVERAGE, IS SHOWING MORE BEARISH BIAS THAN
BULLISH. THIS KIND OF CALCULATION DOES NOT REQUIRE A TREND. IT JUST
REQUIRES MOVEMENT IN PRICE. SO EVEN IF THERE IS LITTLE RISE IN PRICE BETWEEN
A AND B, STILL RSI CAN HAVE A HIDDEN BULLISH DIVERGENCE. ALSO, SCENARIO C.
IS MOST STRONG BECAUSE MOMENTUM IS TURNING FROM POSITIVE TO NEGATIVE
AND STILL PRICE IS ABOVE THE PREVIOUS POINT.
3 Possibilities here
But since B is lower than A, it means that the distance between 12 DEMA and 26 DEMA is lesser at B
than A but 12 DEMA is above 26 DEMA at both A and B.
Which means that At A, price moved sharply higher over last 12 days than last 26 days. But at B, price
moved less sharply higher over last 12 days than last 26 days.
But since B is lower than A, it means that the distance between 12 DEMA and 26 DEMA is more at B
than A but 12 DEMA is below 26 DEMA at both A and B.
Which means that At A, price moved lower less sharply over last 12 days than last 26 days. But at B,
price moved more sharply lower over last 12 days than last 26 days.
The CRUX is that despite a fall in VELOCITY OF PRICE, price is still above its previous point, which
shows bullishness. IT SHOWS THAT PRICE OVER 12 DAYS ARE MOVING MORE OR LESS
SHARPLY THAN PRICE OVER 26 DAYS. THUS THIS CAN BE CAPTURED VERY WELL IN
TRENDS. THE BEHAVIOR OF MACD WILL ACCENTUATE DURING TRENDS. THUS, TO
FORM A HIDDEN BULLISH DIVERGENCE IN MACD, PRICE HAS TO MAKE SHARP
MOVEMENTS. ALSO, POINT C. IS MOST STRONG BECAUSE VELOCITY OF PRICE MOVE
HAS GONE FROM FLAT TO NEGATIVE AND YET PRICE IS HIGHER
Ref Image 2
1. Too many candles at same level. Acts as support/resistance in the context of price.
2. Exhaustion gap occurs when the trend is ending. If it is uptrend, then its a gap when all the
bulls put all their efforts and exhaust. Trend reversal follows soon.
Ref Image 3
Ref Image 3 Notes
Ref Image 4
1. The circled candle is the pivot which has two candles to its left and two to its right. The
left one is a high pivot with two candles on the left and right each making lower highs.
The right one is a low pivot with two candles on the left and right each making higher
lows
2.
3.
Ref Image 5
1. See MothersonSumi, the angle of the slope of tops was continuously falling even though
price was rising. This gave way to the big picture view. Then of course we can get into
price patterns and specific candles.
Ref Image 6
Ref Image 6 Notes
1. Use stochastics in ranges. Secondly, the oscillations in stoch must be close and several. So lets say
price is in a range and stock is rising. But it will only pass SBTS test if the rising stoch is full of close
oscillations. Also, the use of MACD is completely wrong. You can't just draw an ascending line just
because MACD is rising. In fact, MACD was rising below and such situations are perfect for shorting
because majority of times, MACD turns back from 0 line presenting a wonderful short opportunity. In
fact, if you'd check your chart, you find the same thing. MACD never crossed above 0 in 3 minute
frame since your screenshot time.
Ref Image 7
Ref Image 9
8. When something is falling relentlessly, do not search for supports rather search for
resistances on the bounce. Similarly when something is rising relentlessly, do not search
for resistances but search for supports on the pullbacks.
9. A Very Important Tip
Horizontal lines are far more effective than sloping lines when it comes to defining
supports & resistances. Even if you have a sloping trend-line in place, always consider
tentative horizontal lines from swing highs and swing lows as points of reference.
10. WHAT TO SEE IN THE CHART
a) Overall Price structure
b) Price patterns
c) Candle Patterns
d) Indicators & Oscillators, if needed, to confirm the above thesis.
This should be the order. This is applicable across time-frames. However, beginners start with 4th
& never reach 1st
11. PRICE PATTERNS comprise of shapes which are documented in technical analysis
textbooks, be it continuation patterns like symmetrical triangles, flags, pennants or
reversal patterns like Head & Shoulders, Double tops/bottoms and so on. Of course,
every pattern has a psychological basis, but they are set patterns anyway.
12. PRICE STRUCTURE is the art side of chart viewing.
So, when I say PRICE STRUCTURE, I literally mean CHARACTER of the price. Every
stock's chart has a specific intrinsic character. For example, you see a chart and you
realize that every time this stock rises, it rises on small candles and falls on small candles
as well. With some other stock you may find that it tends to form a lot of V and inverted V
shapes which means quite fierce and abrupt action by bulls and bears. In some stock,
the case might be that it tends to create long shadows. You see, just looking at the
chart's history and habits, you can learn a lot about the type of parties involved in that
stock. And mostly a stock character doesn't change for a long long time because major
controlling parties don't change easily. So, by character, I mean, looking at the nature of
rises, nature of falls, size of candles, steepness of rise and falls, count of candles in rise
vs count of candles in falls, frequency of consolidation and trends, whether the stocks
tends to make V bottoms or U bottoms and so on. I mean it is so artistic that you can
unveil a lot of secrets
13. Price patterns give you a directional bias, individual candles give you the execution trigger
14. If it ain't simple, it ain't worth a look.
15. It is most healthy when the size of the candles are smaller. Every time it trends on
smaller candles it goes a long way
16. The moment average size of the candle increases it becomes erratic
17. OI Spurt + Good Chart Setup + Price in trading zone offering good risk reward
18. No but generally most corrections stop at 38.2%, 50% or 61.8%. If they don't, then it's not correction
but a reversal. 50% is a safe zone to enter.
19. The size of candles was getting uncomfortable bhai. I like to get in small candles and get out
in big ones.
20. Use stochastics in ranges. Secondly, the oscillations in stoch must be close and several. So lets say
price is in a range and stock is rising. But it will only pass SBTS test if the rising stoch is full of close
oscillations. Also, the use of MACD is completely wrong. You can't just draw an ascending line just
because MACD is rising. In fact, MACD was rising below and such situations are perfect for shorting
because majority of times, MACD turns back from 0 line presenting a wonderful short opportunity. In
fact, if you'd check your chart, you find the same thing. MACD never crossed above 0 in 3 minute
frame since your screenshot time.
21. Rather extraordinary volumes on a bearish candle in mid of a downfall would be bullish due to
exhaustion phenomena.
22. .A breakout candle distorts the risk reward scenario. My personal view on trading breakout candle is
this. In case of a breakout, I go long in two scenarios only. One, when the next candle breaches high of
the breakout candle, i.e., continued momentum. In this case, I get an anchor to put my stop at, breakout
candle's high/close (whatever I deem fit). The second scenario is that post the breakout candle, price
pulls back and confirms the previous resistance as support. In that case too, I get a good anchor to put a
stop, i.e., below the support. But in this specific case, what happened was that the next candle to the
breakout candle went higher than the breakout candle, getting me in the trade but then soon it fell
below breakout candle's close, hitting my stop. Once that happened, I got ready to buy if the pullback
takes support at the previous resistance which it didn't, and fell below the breakout resistance. Hence,
no positions (BREAKOUT VIEW)
23. Price tells you the level at which people want to buy/sell. Volume tells you the urgency
with which they want to buy/sell.
24. So, if price is rising on high volume with a rising OI, it means LONG PLAYERS are
dominating.
If price is rising on a high volume with a falling OI, it means SHORT COVERING
PLAYERS are dominating.
If price is falling on high volume with a rising OI, it means SHORT PLAYERS are
dominating.
If price is falling on high volume with a falling OI, it means LONG UNWINDING
PLAYERS are dominating
25. the overall context matters a lot in identifying the difference between consolidation and
distribution. However the signature style of a consolidation is smaller movements within
the range (low volatility) combined with low volume. While the distribution's signature
style is bigger movements in the range (high volatility) combined with high volume
26. Horizontal lines are far more effective than sloping lines when it comes to defining
supports & resistances
27. Daily open/close, weekly open close and monthly open/close matter because between any
two candles, market is CLOSED. But intraday open/close do not matter as market is already
OPEN and it is YOU who is trying to divide an already OPEN market into OPENS and
CLOSES and market doesn't know YOU
28. Scenario-1:
Price OPENED at 100 then made a low of 88 and then zoomed to 118 and closed at 110.
Scenario-2:
Price OPENED at 100 then made a high of 118, fell to make a low of 88 and then closed at
110.
No, in the first case price opened and then made a quick low showing the reaction of
amateurs but then professionals took over and brought it higher to 118 but then due to profit
booking price fell and closed at 110. This price action is BULLISH. Here price made a high
and due to profit booking it closed a little lower.
In the second case, price opened and then the euphoria of amateurs took it to 118 but it could
not sustain at the high and then it started falling and touched a low of 88. Then somehow it
recovered near the end of the day and closed at 110. It is NOT THAT BULLISH RATHER
DOUBTFUL. Here price made a low and recovered to close higher.
29. The only reason a beginner holds losing trades and cuts winning trades too soon is that
he treats every single trade as a matter of life and death and attaches too much
importance to any single trade. The moment he accepts that this is a futile activity and
trading is not about winning every trade but about being net positive over a number of
trades, emotions stop hampering and trading becomes rational.
30. R:R ratio & Position sizing & STOPS:
Risk-reward is not a static thing. It is a dynamic thing. It changes while we are in a trade.
My focus is on controlling my risk, which effectively means a good entry. Now, even if
risk-reward is 1:1, I can tilt it in my favor by position sizing while in the trade. There are so
many trades where I entered on 1:1 or 1:1.5 kind of risk reward and by the time I exited,
the risk reward was 1:10 as per my original risk. I am a very short term trader and if I'd
keep 1:8 or 1:10 kind of parameter along with the fact that technical stop should be no
more than 2% of my capital, trust me, I won't have anything to trade. So, my mantra is
that I control my risk by refining my entry and then tilt the things by adding and reducing
positions.
1:1 R:R will always lose over the long term. At least 1:3 to be a long term winner. It actually
depends on the setup sometimes you can catch 1:10 or even more. But minimum should be
definitely more than 1:2 . That's my opinion and the way I prefer. RRR is always dynamic.
There is no harm entering a 1:1 because it may become 1:5 while in the trade. By contrast
even a 1:5 can turn into a 2:1 after entering.
The primary thing is Stop, then comes entry and then comes position sizing.
EXAMPLE:
Your capital is 10 Lac.
You buy 5000 shares at 100 of ABC because a technical stop is established at 98 that is
less than 2% of your capital. So, you effectively risk 10000 which is 1% of your capital.
Now, stock moves to 110, your MTM is 50000 and you trail your stop to 105 (based on
technical picture).
Your net risk has become negative as you have taken up a risk of 5 bucks or 25000 and
your MTM is 10 bucks or 50000.
You put up another lot of 5000 shares at 110.
Now your quantity is 10000 shares. Your MTM is 50000 and your risk is 50000 thus you
are risking 0% of your capital even by adding 5000 more shares.
Now, you have assumed power of leverage with 0 risk effectively.
Now price goes to 115 let's say and you cash out. You made a total of 20 points at an
initial risk of 5 points.
20 points because you made 10 points on 1 lot from 100 to 110 and 5 points on 2 lots
from 110 to 115.
This is using the price movie to your advantage by adding quantity at no risk.
Let'say price wold have moved to 113, your MTM would have been 80000, you would be
able to add one more lot if you are getting a good stop even at 107. I hope you're getting
my point.
See once you have moved in the positive territory, your capital risk becomes negative if
you trail the stop to technical points. And the only way to utilize negative risk is to scale
in.
Now, even if price had moved from 110 to 105, you could have scaled out 1 lot and still
keep 5000 shares and you would still have a window based on 2% of capital.
So, it all depends upon lot size and position sizing. That is the gist of trading
31.
47.