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The Financial Crisis Western Banking Ver
The Financial Crisis Western Banking Ver
The Financial Crisis Western Banking Ver
1, 2011
Abstract: The financial crisis has had a devastating impact on financial markets in the
US and other western countries. Particularly hard hit were investors who purchased
mortgaged backed securities, since as the value of the asset declined below the amount
of debt, investors took large losses. Countries that follow Islamic Banking and Finance
(IBF) have largely been spared this loss due to the types of bonds that are allowed. This
research summarises the problem in the Western World and then compares it to a simi-
lar problem faced by Dubai World who had a ‘standstill’ when they were unable to make
a required payment. It appears that holders of Dubai World sukuk will be spared losses
because of Islamic banking laws. We examine both the short term and long term effects.
†
The Richard Stockton College, USA; e-mail: Michael.busler@stockton.edu
Copyright © 2011 WASD 1
2 M. Busler
foreclosure proceedings on nearly 2.3 Dubai, was quick to follow the US hous-
million properties, an 81% increase from ing market collapse and plummeting oil
2007. By August of 2008, 9.2% of all US prices. With prices for real estate falling,
mortgages outstanding were either delin- big developers such as Nakheel, a subsiary
quent or in foreclosure. One year later, of Dubai World, began halting construc-
this figure rose to 14.4% (Standard and tion and laying-off staff.
Poor’s, 2008).
The extremely large decrease in the
The collapse of a US housing market price of oil hit the Middle East very hard
led to a global housing bubble collapse, in 2009. The reversal of capital inflows
which caused the value of securities tied combined with deterioration in exter-
to real estate pricing to plummet, dam- nal financing conditions created serious
aging financial institutions globally. problems for the region. Local property
Questions regarding bank solvency, de- and equity markets were put under in-
clines in credit availability, the lack of tense pressure, domestic liquidity con-
liquidity, and damaged investor confi- ditions deteriorated and credit spreads
dence, all had an impact on global stock soared for some firms (World Economic
markets, where securities suffered large Outlook, 2009). Financial system strains
losses during late 2008 and early 2009. emerged in a number of countries and
Economies worldwide slowed during many sovereign wealth funds suffered
this period as credit tightened and inter- substantial losses from investments in
national trade declined (World Econom- global markets. Furthermore, export
ic Outlook, 2009). growth and tourism revenues sharply de-
clined. Particularly in the UAE, the exit
The Oil Price surge anD DuBai of external funds, which had entered the
WOrlD country on speculation of a currency re-
valuation, contributed to a large contrac-
Another important part of the financial tion in liquidity, a sizable fall in property
crisis as it relates to Dubai World and and equity prices, and substantial pres-
their standstill, is the oil price surge that sure in the banking system (World Eco-
was cre-ated following the collapse in the nomic Outlook, 2009).
housing bubble. The price of a barrel of
crude oil nearly tripled from $50 in 2007 More specifically, Dubai had been
to a peak of $147 in July of 2008. As the struggling with a very large debt burden
financial crisis began to take hold in late since the bursting of the property bub-
2008, oil prices plummeted by nearly 75% ble in the fall of 2008. The UAE entities
to a low of $37 in December 2008 (Futures were aggressive borrowers in internation-
Trading Charts, 2008). The price of oil is al markets over the previous years, with
the lifeblood of the Persian Gulf economy, Dubai Inc. entities leading the way. In
especially in Dubai, where high oil prices total, UAE raised $135 billion from ex-
are a crucial support to Dubai property ternal public syndicated loan and bond
values. Real Estate, the other mainstay for markets during 2006–2008, an amount
4 M. Busler
equivalent to 53% of GDP, the highest tourism. With the impending economic
of any major emerging market. Addition- slowdown, especially in the real estate sec-
ally, the local banking sector experienced tor, Dubai finances became particularly
rapid credit growth, averaging around vulnerable.
33% annually for the prior three years
(Nazim, 2009). The total credit port-folio In Dubai, issuance in international
of the UAE banking sector reached an es- debt markets increased sharply, totaling
timated $275 billion in June 2009 which $72.6 billion between 2006 and 2008, or
was 108% of GDP. While specific infor- 88% of Dubai’s 2008 GDP. This debt issu-
ma-tion about Dubai Inc. in particular is ance was used mostly to finance the expan-
not public information, analysts estimate sion of the real estate sector and activity of
that banks in Dubai and Abu Dhabi have conglomerates, which accounted for 25.1%
lent a total of $40 billion to Dubai Inc. and 26.4% of debt issued during this peri-
entities, and a further $20 billion to the od, respectively. This debt had an average
Dubai gov-ernment. Added to the $47 maturity of four and a half years and was
billion of Dubai Inc. cross-border debt of channeled toward long-term projects, espe-
loans and bonds, it can be estimated that cially in the real estate sector (Razgallah,
the total borrowing of Dubai Inc. cor- 2009). The concentration of issuance over
porations was approximately $75 billion the recent years explains the heavy redemp-
(Razgallah, 2009). tion schedule for Dubai entities between
2010 and 2013. The size of the maturity
In addition to the collapse of local as- mismatch may explain the extreme impact
set values, refinancing needs were a press- of the financial crisis on Dubai.
ing concern in Dubai. In February 2009,
the government of Dubai launched $20 The DuBai WOrlD sTanDsTill
billion bonds, easing default worries, and
UAE central bank immediately subscribed The debt, put on ‘standstill’, were three
to $10 billion. With the exception of the issuances by Nakheel, totalling over $5.2
Dubai government, however, no Dubai billion (Nasdaq Dubai 2009). The issues
entity was able to raise funds in public can be summarised: Of particular inter-
markets in 2009 (Nazim, 2009). There- est is the Nakheel Development Limit-
fore, Dubai entities would need assistance ed issue, which is the largest sukuk issue
in order to meet debt maturities due in to date in the history of Islamic bank-
2010. While Abu Dhabi, the capital of ing and is the first of its kind in both Is-
UAE, had been supportive, providing over lamic and conventional capital mar-kets
$15 billion over the course of 2009 help- (Islam Finance News, 2006). The sukuk
ing to refinance maturing debt, the fiscal was structured as per the rules of Sharia
position of the government of Dubai re- and was approved by the Sharia board of
mained under severe strain. The major- the Dubai Islamic Bank. The transaction
ity of the government’s revenues are from was structured as a three year Pre-QPO
fees, including fees related to land transfer, Equity Linked Sukuk al-Ijarah (Appen-
mortgage registration, immigration and dix 1–4). Under a purchase agreement,
Western Banking versus Islamic banking 5
QPO
Sukuk Listing date Maturity Amount Type
yield
certain pre-identified assets were sold to back at $3.52 billion at the end of three
Nakheel Development Limited, an off- years. The SPV will lease out the under-
shore Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV). The lying assets to Nakheel and Nakheel will
underlying assets were comprised of the pay ‘rent’ every six months to the SPV.
leasehold rights for a term of 50 years The SPV will collect the semiannual rents
over certain land, buildings and other and distribute them to sukuk holders. At
property at Dubai Waterfront. This su- maturity, the sukuk holder sells his su-
kuk’s structure was the first of its kind kuk back to the SPV at face value. In cas-
in Islamic capital markets. Originally es of default, the long lease would be re-
planned at US$2.5 billion, the issue was purchased by Nakheel and that deferred
oversubscribed by more than 2.5 times rental payment would be made.
and closed at US$3.52 billion. The Qual-
ifying Public Offering (QPO) yield does In order to comprehend the role
not reflect the actual coupon payments of Islamic Banking and Finance (IBF)
of the bond, as they float depending on in the Dubai World debt standstill, we
the profit earned by Nakheel. The QPO must be able to distinguish between con-
yield is used for comparison to tradition- ventional and Islamic bonds. Conven-
al bonds so that the sukuk can be priced tional bonds do not represent owner-
competitively. ship on the part of the bond holders in
the commercial or industrial enterprises
sukuks anD cOnvenTiOnal for which the bonds were issued. Rather,
WesTern sTYle BOnDs they document the interest-bearing debt
owed to the bondholders by the issuer,
At first glance, the details of the sukuks the owner of the enterprise. With the ex-
may appear as conventional bonds, as ception of zero-coupon bonds, regular in-
they pay semi-annual coupons. Howev- ter-estpaymentsaremadetothebondhold-
er, the sukuk al-ijara is compliant with ers.The amount of interest can be fixed
Sharia, as the semi-annual payments are or floating, but does not reflect a percent-
considered to be rent charges for the leas- age of actual profits. Bonds guarantee
ing of assets, in this case land. Nakheel the return of prin-cipal when redeemed
technically sells the $3.52 billion of su- at maturity, regardless of whether the
kuk assets to the SPV promising to buy it enterprise was profitable or otherwise.
6 M. Busler
Whatever profits may have been earned the beginning of the process, regardless
by the enterprise accrue entirely and ex- of their true or market value at maturi-
clusively to the issuer. ty (Usmani, 2009). It should be noted
that what is being called an ‘incentive’ in
Generally, sukuk represent owner- these sukuk may not truly be an incentive
ship shares in assets that bring revenues but rather a method for marketing sukuk
and produce profit, like leased assets. In on basis of interest rates. In order for su-
reference to coupons, most of the sukuk kuk to be purchased by investors around
that have been issued are identical to con- the world, they need to be comparable to
ventional bonds with regard to the dis- traditional bonds. Providing a fixed nu-
tribution of profits from their enterpris- merical interest rate allows the bonds to
es at percentages based on interest rates be priced efficiently on the market.
(LIBOR or EIBOR). In order to justify
this practice, the issuers include a para- In September 2009, Dubai World
graph in the contract which states that announced that they were in the pro-
if the actual profits from the enterprise cess of rescheduling $12 billion of debt.
exceed the percentage based on interest Dubai Ruler Sheikh Mohammed reas-
rates, then that amount of excess shall be sured Dubai investors, as he said during a
paid in its entirety to the enterprise man- press conference that he was ‘not worried’
ager as an incentive for the manager to about Dubai’s ability to repay its debts (Al
manage effectively (Usmani, 2009). If the Maktoum, 2009a,b). In October 2009,
actual profits are less than the prescribed Dubai World claimed that the organisa-
per-centage, then the manager may take tional restructuring was nearly over and
it upon himself to pay out the difference that it would be able to save $800 mil-
(between the actual profits and the pre- lion over the next three years. They also
scribed percentage) to the sukuk hold- cut their global workforce by 15%. On
ers, as an interest free loan to the sukuk 25 November, the government of Dubai
holders. Then, that loan will be recovered announced that it had raised $5 billion
by the lending manager either from the from two Abu Dhabi government owned
amounts in excess of the interest rate dur- banks, National Bank of Abu Dhabi and
ing subsequent periods, or from lowering Al Hilal Bank, as part of its $20 billion
the cost of repurchasing assets at the time long term bond program. Hours later,
the sukuk are redeemed. Virtually all of the government of Dubai announced
the sukuk issued today guarantee the re- that Dubai World would be restructured
turn of principal to the sukuk holders at to address its financial obligations. As a
maturity, in exactly the same way as con- first step, Dubai World intended to ask
ventional bonds. This is accomplished by creditors to Dubai World and its entity,
means of a binding promise from either Nakheel, for a standstill and extend ma-
the issuer or the manager to repurchase turities until at least 30 May 2010. The
the assets represented by the sukuk at government also specified that the $5
the stated price at which these were origi- billion raised earlier in the day was not
nally purchased by the sukuk holders at linked to this restructuring.
Western Banking versus Islamic banking 7
estimated yields than US Treasury secu- announcement, they were trading at 60%
rities. Many corporate bonds, of com- on the dollar (Bryan-Low, 2009). Howev-
parable maturity and credit quality, also er, while it is unknown if investors will
carry higher yields as investors demand a receive their full principal in the short-
higher interest rate to compensate for pre- term, it is likely that they will receive their
payment risk and resulting uncertainty in full invest-ment at some point in time
the average life of an ABS. due to contrac-tual agreement outlined
in the sukuk.
According to Sharia, sukuk must be
tied to actual assets. In sukuk al-ijara, the Although creditors and debtors have
underlying assets are ‘sold’ to the SPV come to an agreement on both Nakheel
which issued the sukuk, who then ‘rents’ and Dubai’s recapitalisation plans, we
the asset back to the company. The com- might wonder what may have happened
pany pays ‘rent’ to the sukuk holders. In had this dilemma been brought to court.
Nakheel’s sukuk contracts, it states that Islamic jurisprudence may have rejected
the issuer will buy back the underlying the per-missibility of principal protection
assets at full price at maturity. This is of sukuk investors, but scholarly opinion
exactly why Dubai was forced to have a may have permitted repayment of the
‘standstill’. They were unable to pay the original asset value at the time of issu-
Nakheel Development Limited sukuk ance. According to Sharia, in general, is-
that was maturing on 14 December 2009. suers cannot guarantee principal through
Instead, they asked for creditors to defer the repurchase of underlying assets for a
payment for six months, a time Dubai fixed nominal value or offer a credit guar-
World felt would be sufficient to raise the antee. Any repurchase can only occur at
funds to pay back its creditors in full. In net value or fair market value. However,
the US, however, this would not be the since the Nakheel transaction involved
case. Many investors who owned ABS commercial leasehold properties, the le-
and MBS that defaulted received only a gal action consistent with currentAAO-
fraction of their initial investment. IFIrecommendationsonsukuk al-ijara
would have permitted repayments up to
Although the Federal Reserve inter- the amount of remaining lease payments
vened to fund the purchase of these secu- or original asset value, which would have
ritised products, many investors around resulted in a forbearance on interest.
the world suffered significant losses. The
investors in Dubai World and Nakheel Sharia law requires payoffs from
however, may not experience the same time-contingent profit/loss sharing ar-
magnitude of loss if they hold their posi- range-ments; this principle is tied to con-
tions. If they decided to sell their sukuks tractual certainty associated with direct
on the secondary market, they will likely ownership. However, the original terms
suffer losses. Nakheel sukuks were pur- and conditions of the Nakheel sukuk
chased at 110% on the dollar in the be- ruled out such direct asset linkage. Inves-
ginning of the issue; after the standstill tor claims arising from the sukuk were
10 M. Busler
considered only assetbased, not secured on Islamic bonds. In June 2009, the
asset-backed, handing investors own- Saad Group, part of the struggling fam-
ership of the cash flows but not of the ily-owned conglomerate based in Saudi
assets themselves. In terms of the risk/ Arabia, began restructuring due to its in-
return profile, asset-backed sukuk are ability to make payments on $650 million
arguably closer to an equity position be- sukuk. Banks and investors are estimated
cause sukuk holders own the underlying to be owed more than $20 billion by the
asset and have no recourse to the origina- Saad Group and its subsidiaries, and
tor in the event of a payment shortfall. lenders have taken legal action against
On the other hand, asset-based sukuk, the company in New York, the Cayman
like Nakheel’s sukuk al-ijara, are closer to Islands and the Gulf. The legal proceed-
debt because sukuk holders have recourse ings against both of these companies, and
to the originator if there is a shortfall in for East Cameron Partners, are still cur-
payments. The ijara sukuk with a repur- rently under-way. Therefore, accurately
chase agreement at par creates a stream of predicting the results of Dubai World’s
rental income from the underlying asset. debt standstill is virtually impossible.
However, Nakheel’s contract had a repur-
chase clause where the issuer repurchases In the UAE, there is no precedent for
the asset at par in cases of default, making a restructuring of the size of Dubai World
the instrument debt. The sukuk holders and Nakheel, and its government owner-
have no recourse to take possession of the ship. As a result, investors will be watch-
asset; their claims are transformed into ing events related to the Nakheel bonds
unsecured debt obligations against the for a road map for future restructurings
issuer. Therefore, if sukuk holders keep in the region. How the underlying legal
their position, it is likely they will receive structures would fare in a court of law in
their investment back in full. Because the comparison with conventional bonds is
debt of the Dubai World standstill was a uncertain. Although sukuk must comply
sukuk al-ijara, a debt instrument of IBF, with Islamic law, they are governed as well
investors are likely better off. The returns by the secular law under which they are
to investors of conventional bonds or issued, like bonds. In the case of Dubai
ABS in default are likely less than those World, a bailout by Abu Dhabi has ob-
of sukuk holders. viated the need to address this question
directly. In addition, the role and efficacy
The lack OF PreceDenT of Sharia governance arrangements and
due diligence for Sharia compliance have
This better-off analysis is mainly hypo- attracted attention. Given the relatively
thetical due to the lack of precedence in early stage of development of sukuk in
the issue. In May 2009, Investment Dar particular and of IBF in general, sukuk
Company, the Kuwait owner of half of are likely to continue to evolve.
Aston Martin Lagonda Limited, missed
a payment on $100 million of debt, be- In some ways, the Dubai World case
coming the first Gulf company to default is a typical example of what happens at
Western Banking versus Islamic banking 11
the end stage of a real estate cycle. Com- mortgaged back securities to lose most of
mercial real estate always involves what their value. This set off a chain of events
economist Hyman Minsky calls Ponzi that crippled credit markets and ultimate-
finance (Minsky, 1982). In the Ponzi ly lead to a world wide recession, as inves-
finance stage, business cash flows are tors suffered large losses.
not sufficient to meet current debt pay-
ments nor does expected income meet In countries that follow Islamic
future payment requirements. Therefore Banking, this financial meltdown essen-
the company lacks the ability to pay ei- tially did not occur. The reason seems to
ther interest or principal payments and be that investors will likely not suffer any
must depend on borrowing in order to losses. Even when a ‘standstill’ (the west-
finance debt commitments. For Dubai ern equivalent of a default) occurs, the
World, the collapsing real estate mar- result is that investors will likely not lose
ket in Dubai, combined with dimin- any of their capital.
ishing tourism revenues, significantly
decreased their income. They were un- Our assessment is that Islamic bank-
able to meet their debt obligations and ing minimises the risk to investors since
were forced to call a standstill. Luckily they are not likely to ever suffer losses.
for Dubai World, the government of
Dubai and the government of UAE in With Western banking, losses could
Abu Dhabi stepped in to support them. occur, thereby increasing risk. The con-
Without the support of the government, clusion then, is that Islamic banking plac-
it is likely the Dubai World debt stand- es virtually all of the risk on the borrow
still would have triggered a larger cata- (the entrepreneur). This increased risk
strophic event for Dubai World and the increases the cost to the entrepreneur so
region. that fewer projects may be undertaken.
It is possible, that while Islamic bank-
cOnclusiOns ing protects the investor, it places extra
burdens on borrowers who may become
It appears that the financial crisis in the reluctant to take on additional projects.
Western world was fueled by government This could result in slowing overall de-
efforts to relax borrowing standards so velopment. Admittedly more research is
that more citizens could purchase homes needed in this area.
using ‘sub-prime’ mortgages. Ultimately
these mortgages were packaged and used BiOgraPhY
to back securities that would derive value
from increased payments. When adjust- Dr. Michael Busler is an Associate Pro-
able rate mortgage holders experienced fessor of Finance, Finance Track Coor-
large increase in payments and when the dinator and a Fellow at The William J.
houses that collateralised the mortgages Hughes Center for Public Policy at Rich-
began to loose value, defaults increased. ard Stockton College. He teaches under-
Lenders foreclosed on homes causing the graduate courses in Finance and Game
12 M. Busler
Minsky, H.P. (1982). ‘Can ‘It’ Happen Usmani, M.T. (2009). President of the
Again? Essays on Instability and AAOIFI Shariah Council, Su-
Finance’, Finance and Profits: The kuk and their Contemporary
Changing Nature of American Business Applcations.
Cycles, M.E. Sharpe.
World Economic Outlook (2009). Crisis
Nazim, Z. (2009). ‘Cutting through the and Recovery, International Mon-
haze: further thoughts on Dubai etary Fund, April.
Western Banking versus Islamic banking 13
aPPenDiX 1
Global sukuk data
aPPenDiX 2
Nakheel development limited sukuk structure
Source: Offering circular for Nakheel Development Limited Sukuk, 13 December 2006
Western Banking versus Islamic banking 15
aPPenDiX 3
Nakheel development 2 limited sukuk structure
Source: Offering Circular for Nakheel Development 2 Limited Sukuk, 15 January 2008
16 M. Busler
aPPenDiX 4
Nakheel development 3 limited sukuk structure
Source: Offering Circular for Nakheel Development 3 Limited Sukuk, 8 May 2008
Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission.