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22 pages in 2 sections www.business-standard.com
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VOLUME XXIII NUMBER 201

PUBLISHED SIMULTANEOUSLY FROM AHMEDABAD, BENGALURU, BHUBANESWAR, CHANDIGARH, CHENNAI, HYDERABAD, KOCHI, KOLKATA, LUCKNOW, MUMBAI (ALSO PRINTED IN BHOPAL), NEW DELHI AND PUNE

VERDICT BJP NDA CONG UPA OTHERS

2019 303 351 51 89 102
1 7 t h L O K S A B H A 2014 TALLY 282 334 44 61 148

MODI TSUNAMI BLOWS AWAY OPPN

Note: Figures include leads and wins. The data is as of 12:00 am

BJP returns with bigger mandate than 2014; Cong decimated in all big states; Rahul Gandhi loses Amethi
ARCHIS MOHAN Party-Bahujan Samaj Party-Rashtriya Lok Dal to stop INSIDE
New Delhi, 23 May the BJP’s juggernaut, it not only won or was leading
in 64 seats, along with two of the ally Apna Dal, but

N
ever since Indira Gandhi’s famous 1971 bagged a staggering vote share of 49.6 per cent. EDIT: HIGH-FIVES
electoral triumph had an incumbent In effect, the BJP in UP improved significantly on FOR MR MODI PAGE 13
prime minister returned with a major- its 2014 vote share of 42.3 per cent. In 2014, the BJP THE ‘PRO-INCUMBENCY’
ity. Never since 1984 had a party alliance had won 73 seats, including two of the Apna FACTOR
crossed the 300-seat mark. Dal. The mahagathbandhan could win or was lead- AAKAR PATEL PAGE 13
On Thursday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi ing in only 15 seats, with the Bahujan Samaj Party
became the first ever non-Congress prime minister winning 10 and Samajwadi Party five. However, BSP MODI-SHAH OUTWIT
to return to power after a full term, and also the first chief Mayawati thanked her allies, indicating the CONGRESS, AND THE REST
in 48 years to return with a majority. alliance was likely to continue for the 2022 UP SHEKHAR GUPTA PAGE 13
The BJP, at the time of filing this report, was lead- Assembly polls. 2 STEPS EAST, 2 STEPS
ing in 303 seats, and in 353 seats along with its allies. The BJP made inroads into states it had termed its SOUTH GAVE BJP A TRIPLE
The last time a party crossed “final frontiers”, including West CENTURY PAGE 2
the 300-seat mark was in 1984, Bengal, Odisha and Telangana. In
when the Congress won more than
400 seats in the wake of Indira
SENSEX SWING West Bengal, the BJP won or was
leading in 18 seats against the
MODI, YOGI TRUMP
MAHAGATHBANDHAN
Gandhi’s assassination. Trinamool Congress’ 22, with a vote
The scale and spread of the share of 40.2 per cent. In
IN UTTAR PRADESH PAGE 4
BJP’s victory are impressive. Apart Telangana, the BJP won four seats.
from winning an unprecedented Nationally, the BJP is on its way to
majority, the BJP vote share in 12 increasing its vote share from its
states is more than 50 per cent, all-time high of 31 per cent in 2014
including in big states such as to nearly 37 per cent.
Karnataka, Gujarat, Madhya At the BJP’s victory celebrations
Pradesh and Rajasthan. In Uttar in the national capital in the
Pradesh and Tripura, the BJP vote evening, Modi appealed to his
share is 49 per cent. NET CHANGE % CHANGE workers to exhibit humility in what
The Congress, expected to is the “greatest electoral triumph
challenge the BJP at least in some -298.82 -0.76 since the independence in 1947”.
of the Hindi heartland states after “We have to move ahead. We
its Assembly poll successes in
December, won or was leading in
MARKETS PAGE 10 have to take everyone with us,
even our opponents. We have to
a mere 52 seats. It had won 44 > STREET FIGHT: work for the benefit of the coun- CHANAKYA NITI:
seats in 2014. DAY OF RISE AND FALL try,” he said, adding he would not AMIT SHAH HAS KEPT
No one from the Congress may do anything with bad intent even BJP'S POLL MACHINERY
get the status of the leader of the though he might at times commit
WELL OILED PAGE 6
opposition party in the Lok Sabha — for the second a mistake on the job.
time in succession — because it does not have 10 per According to sources, the prime minister is like-
PM TALKS UNITY,
cent of the strength of the House. ly to ask all his ministers to prepare a 100-day agen-
The Congress could not win a single seat in as da for the government. The BJP will hold its parlia-
HUMILITY AFTER
many as 14 states including Rajasthan, Gujarat and mentary party meeting in the central hall of
LANDSLIDE WIN PAGE 8
Haryana. In bigger states such as Madhya Pradesh, Parliament on Sunday, where the newly elected MPs
UP, Jharkhand, Karnataka and Maharashtra, the of the party will elect Modi their leader. The President
Congress could win or was leading in one seat each. would subsequently invite Modi, and his council of “It is an endorsement
To rub salt into its wounds, the BJP’s Smriti Irani ministers, to take oath of office. In 2014, the swearing- of the reforms and
defeated Congress President Rahul Gandhi in his in took place on May 26. The Cabinet will meet on huge changes
stronghold of Amethi by over 55,000 votes. Gandhi, Friday to recommend the dissolution of the current underway”
who won his other seat from Kerala’s Wayanad, has Lok Sabha to the President. N CHANDRASEKARAN
offered to quit as his party's chief. The BJP’s win will be interpreted in various ways Chairman,
In states like Uttar Pradesh, where some had in the days to come. Prime Minister Narendra Modi (left) and BJP President Amit Shah receive a grand welcome at the party Tata Sons
expected the ‘mahagathbandhan’ of the Samajwadi Turn to Page 11 >
headquarters in New Delhi on Thursday PHOTO: PTI

Top bureaucracy set CABINET COMPOSITION

for major reshuffle
NIVEDITA MOOKERJI &
SUBHOMOY BHATTACHARJEE
New Delhi, 23 May
The Narendra Modi government has started
working on the names for a bureaucratic
reshuffle in key ministries and departments
even before the new council of ministers takes
charge.
As Cabinet Secretary P K Sinha’s term
comes to an end on June 14, the government’s
priority is to find a replacement for the 1977
batch Uttar Pradesh cadre IAS officer. Home
Secretary Rajiv Gauba, a 1982 batch
Jharkhand cadre officer, appears to be a
strong contender for the top bureaucrat’s job.
Sinha, who was appointed cabinet secretary in
May 2015, has already got two extensions.
Talk of a new national security advisor
(NSA) at the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) is
also gaining momentum. If 74-year-old Ajit
Doval, an IPS officer of 1968 batch from
Kerala, moves out to take up another crucial
role, the buzz in the corridors of power is that
the government could consider former for-
eign secretary S Jaishankar, who now works
with the Tatas as global corporate affairs pres-
Shahmaydebut,Jaitley’sroleuncertain
ARCHIS MOHAN
New Delhi, 23 May
IN THE RUNNING FOR KEY POSTS
The most anticipated induction into
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s
council of ministers is likely to be
that of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
President Amit Shah when the new
government takes oath next week.
Shah, who has debuted in the Lok
Sabha, could join the Cabinet
Committee on Security (CCS) of the
second Modi government, sources
said. Apart from the prime minister,
the CCS comprises the top four of the
government – defence, home, exter-
nal affairs and finance ministers.
In Gujarat, Shah had served as
home minister in the governments
led by Modi. However, Rajnath
Singh, who has retained his Lucknow
seat, is one of the senior-most party
leaders and served as home minister
in the first Modi government.
It remains to be seen if Nirmala
Sitharaman, who ably defended the
government on the alleged irregu-
larities in the Rafale fighter jet deal,
would continue to remain defence
if Jaitley’s health will permit him
to join the ministry at the current
juncture.
Jaitley, who has not been attend-
ing office for about three weeks now,
has held the finance portfolio (briefly
defence) for most of the duration of
the Modi government.
He had undergone surgery in the
US on January 22 for a reported soft
tissue cancer in his left leg, an ill-
ness that led to him not being able to
Finance Minister BJP chief Amit Shah Textiles Minister present the Modi government's sixth
and final Budget of its current term.
Arun Jaitley’s health could get one of the Smriti Irani, who Goyal had presented that Budget.
remains a concern; He top four portfolios: defeated Rahul Sushma Swaraj, who has served
didn't even attend the Defence, home, Gandhi from Amethi, as external affairs minister, decided
party's victory external affairs, and could get a meatier not to contest the Lok Sabha polls.
celebrations finance portfolio Currently, Swaraj is not a member of
either of the two Houses. She recent-
ly attended the Shanghai
Cooperation Organisation (SCO)
minister, and whether Railway health. He was discharged from New meeting in Bishkek. The PM is set to
Minister Piyush Goyal, who has Delhi’s AllMS on Thursday and did- attend a key SCO meeting in Bishkek
emerged the government’s crisis n't attend the party's victory cele- on June 14-15, where he would be
manager, gets a more high-profile brations at the BJP headquarters in meeting not just Chinese President
portfolio. the evening. Given the challenges Xi Jinping but Pakistan PM Imran
However, there are concerns over on the economic front in the months Khan also.
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley’s to come, the concern in the party is Turn to Page 11 >

ident, for the NSA's job. However, a senior
government official said the 64-year-old 1977
batch IFS officer's recent corporate back-
ground may be a hurdle in appointing him to
a sensitive position.
The term of Principal Secretary to the PM
Nripendra Misra, who was at the centre of pol-
icy decisions in the past five years, may be
renewed, sources in the know said. It is not
known whether the 1967 batch UP cadre IAS
will again get a term, which is co-terminus with
the PM, or it will be for a shorter duration in case
the government decides not to have bureau-
crats beyond the age of 75 years. If Misra’s tenure
is for a shorter duration, Additional Principal
Secretary to the PM P K Mishra (1972 batch
Gujarat cadre), who’s 70, may be elevated as
Principal Secretary to the PM.
There’s also a buzz that NITI Aayog CEO
Amitabh Kant (1980 batch Kerala cadre) may
move to the PMO soon.
Another key post is falling vacant as
Defence Secretary Sanjay Mitra, a 1982 batch
West Bengal cadre IAS, is set to retire at the
end of this month. Among the prominent
names doing the rounds as a possible choice
(Clockwise from top left) Home Secretary Rajiv
Gauba, Sanitation Secretary Parameswaran
Iyer, former foreign secretary S Jaishankar
and Environment Secretary C K Mishra
to replace Mitra are three Bihar cadre IAS
officers — Environment Secretary C K
Mishra, Industry Secretary Ramesh
Abhishek and Rural Development Secretary
Amarjeet Sinha.
There are indications of significant bureau-
cratic changes in the finance ministry as well.
Gujarat Chief Secretary J N Singh, a 1983
batch IAS, is also being seen as a contender for
a top bureaucratic post at the Centre, sources
pointed out. Lt Governor of Delhi Anil Baijal
(1969 batch IAS) is another name doing the
rounds for a Central posting.
Among others who are expected to get larg-
er responsibilities include the man who drove
the Swachh Bharat campaign, Drinking Water
and Sanitation Secretary Parameswaran Iyer,
a 1981 batch UP cadre officer; and Corporate
Affairs Secretary Injeti Srinivas, a 1983 batch
IAS from the Orissa cadre.

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2 VERDICT 2019 MUMBAI | FRIDAY, 24 MAY 2019

I was right that economy is not an overpowering factor if I would like to tell party workers and candidates
Hindutva and anti-corruption are campaign issues. We — those who have won and lost — to not worry.
Taking the escaped incompetent macroeconomic performance We will fight and make sure our ideology wins
LEAD SUBRAMANIAN SWAMY, Rajya Sabha MP RAHUL GANDHI, Congress president

NARENDRA MODI
BJP
2 STEPS EAST, 2 IN SOUTH
STATES THAT MADE ALL THE DIFFERENCE: Modi garners nearly 37% votes nationally, courtesy massive gains
CONSTITUENCY:
Varanasi in West Bengal, Odisha, Karnataka, and Telangana
OPPONENT:
Shalini Yadav, SP
MARGIN:
ABHISHEK WAGHMARE
New Delhi, 23 May EXPANDING FOOTPRINT
KARNATAKA
479,505 votes n an unprecedented electoral performance, the

I
% Vote (4.4 31.9 7.0
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has shed its image share 41.2
43.4 11.1 51.4 9.7
as a force limited to the Hindi heartland and  BJP
western states, and made massive inroads into  INC
the east and the south. Apart from the near-clean THE BJP HAS  JDS
 Others 2014 2019
sweeps in its core regions, the BJP crossed a tally of MORE THAN
300 seats mainly owing to its advances in West DOUBLED ITS 17 25
Bengal, Odisha and Telangana, and consolidation of VOTER BASE IN No of 9 1
SMRITI IRANI its stronghold in Karnataka. seats
This ensured a resounding majority win for the BJP,
BENGAL, FROM 2 1
BJP 17% IN 2014, TO 1
balancing out the losses from the Mahagathbandhan in
CONSTITUENCY: Uttar Pradesh. While the BJP contained its loss in UP to NEARLY 40%. WEST BENGAL
Amethi nine seats — down to 62 from 71 it had won in 2014 — IN A SAVING % Vote 39.8 10.5 43.3 4.6
it gained 34 seats in the four states mentioned, when GRACE, THE share 9.7 5.6
OPPONENT: 23.0 6.3
this paper went to press. This happened courtesy an effi- TMC, TOO,  BJP 40.2
Rahul Gandhi,
cient conversion of vote share to seats in these states.  INC
INC
Nationally, the BJP has garnered over 37 per cent
IMPROVED ITS  TMC 17.0
MARGIN: 55,686 votes in the 2019 polls (according to Business Standard VOTE SHARE 

CPM
Others
2014 2019
votes calculations), adding six percentage points to the 31 FROM 40% TO
2 18
per cent in 2014. This performance is nearly compa- 44%, THOUGH No of
4 2
rable with Indira Gandhi’s in the 1967-1980 period, ITS SEATS seats
34 22
when the Congress's vote share hovered between 40 PLUMMETED TO 2
per cent and 43 per cent.
According to provisional data, the Congress gar-
ABOUT 22
nered just under 20 per cent votes, marginally higher
TELANGANA
% Vote
than 19.5 per cent in 2014. Its seat tally remained at 52 share 34.9 29.9 29.5 41.3
NITIN JAIRAM at the time of going to press. 24.7 19.5 9.7
GADKARI BJP  BJP
The BJP more than doubled its voter base in Bengal, A lane near Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's residence wears a deserted  INC
from 17 per cent in 2014, to nearly 40 per cent of the state look on the counting day, in Kolkata PHOTO:PTI  TRS 10.5
CONSTITUENCY:
voting for the saffron party in 2019. This helped the  Others 2014 2019
Nagpur
BJP increase its seat tally from 2 to 18. This poses a seri- dropped two percentage points, but remained strong cent this year. As a result, Karnataka became the
OPPONENT: ous threat to the political ambitions of Mamata at about 42 per cent. playground for Congress's biggest defeat in the coun- 1 4
Nana Patole, INC No of 3
Banerjee, the two-time chief minister. As a result, the Modi-led BJP poached seven seats try. It lost eight seats, retaining just one in a state seats 2
In a saving grace, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) from the BJD, and increased its tally to eight. The where it is in power, in coalition with the Janata Dal 11 9
MARGIN: 1
3
208,967 votes too improved its vote share from 40 per cent to 43.3
per cent. This reduced the damage to the party,
Congress, which got 26 per cent votes in the 2014 Lok
Sabha elections in Odisha, reduced its influence to
(Secular). The JD(S) remained a silent spectator, with
a trample damage of losing one seat.
though it lost 12 seats. about 14 per cent, but won one seat. From 20 seats in The absence of Telugu Desam Party (TDP) from
ODISHA
Both the TMC and the BJP gained vote share by 2014, BJD’s tally went down to 12 this time. the contest in Telangana threw up a surprising result. % Vote 44.8 5.2
share 26.0 7.4 13.6
severely denting the support base of the Left. The The BJP had emerged as the single largest party in All three parties — BJP, Congress and the Telangana 42.8
 BJP 38.4
vote share of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) Karnataka Assembly elections in 2018, with 36 per Rashtra Samithi — improved its vote share. But the  INC 21.9
(CPM) plummeted from 23 per cent in 2014, to less cent votes and 104 seats in the 224-seat Assembly, Congress and the BJP expended its effort in select  BJD
than 7 per cent. The BJP ate away half of the falling marginally short of majority. In 2019, it has seats, winning three and four seats, respectively. The  Others
2014 2019
Congress's base, too. now garnered more than 50 per cent vote share in the BJP nearly doubled its vote share, becoming a for-
SONIA GANDHI In Odisha too, the BJP is now standing neck and southern state, winning 25 of the 28 seats. midable saffron force in the state. Though TRS won 1 8
No of
INC neck against the Biju Janata Dal (BJD). The BJP’s Here, the BJP severely dented the support base of a landslide in the Assembly elections six months ago, seats 20 1
vote share in the state jumped from 22 per cent to 38 the Congress, whose vote share dropped significant- it lost two seats in the Lok Sabha election, reducing its 12
CONSTITUENCY: Note: Figures are as of 11 pm, subject to change as counting progresses
per cent. In comparison, the vote share of the BJD ly from 41 per cent in 2014 general election, to 32 per tally to nine.
Rae Bareli Source: ECI

OPPONENT:
Dinesh Pratap Singh,
MAPPING THE INDIA OF 2019
BJP
MARGIN: BJP Bengal breach
167,178 votes
BJP DEMOLISHES ALMOST ALL OPPOSITION, obliterates Left
PAINTS MAJORITY OF COUNTRY SAFFRON PHOTO: PTI
SAI MANISH
New Delhi, 23 May

Riding on a pro-incumbency wave, the The Communist Party of India (Marxist) has been officially
RAJNATH SINGH Bharatiya Janata Party, led by Prime routed in West Bengal — a state which had always sent a CPM
leader to Parliament since Independence.
BJP
CONSTITUENCY:
Minister Narendra Modi, is set to get a The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which won two seats in
2014, has bagged 18 seats in West Bengal — its highest ever tal-
Lucknow second term at the Centre with a full ly in the state. The Trinamool Congress has been reduced to 24
OPPONENT: majority. A look at how the party fared seats — 10 seats less than its 2014 tally, when even the com-
Poonam Shatrughan munists had managed to win two seats in the state. The BJP
Sinha, SP across the country, making inroads into increased its vote share from 16.4 per cent in 2014 to 38.6 per
cent in 2019 in the state.
MARGIN: many constituencies Mohammad Salim, the communist MP from West Bengal,
347,302 votes lost to the BJP’s Debasree Chaudhri and finished a distant
third in Raiganj. Badaroudoza Khan, the sitting Communist
MP from Murshidabad, failed to finish in the top three. The
seat was won by Trinamool candidate Abu Taher Khan with
Congress candidate Abu Hena finishing second. Even the
BJP’s Humayun Kabir had a better vote share than the com-
munist candidate.

AKHILESH YADAV
SP
Supporters celebrate the BJP’s lead in the Lok Sabha elections at the party headquarters
CONSTITUENCY:
Azamgarh
OPPONENT:
Dinesh Lal Yadav
Nirahua, BJP
MARGIN:
259,874 votes
LEFT ALONE? From 10 MPs in the outgoing Parliament, the
Left tally is set to come down to about five PHOTO: REUTERS
With all+
BJP’s ‘Bengal breach’ also echoed in Tripura where BJP
development for candidates Rebati Tripura and Pratima Bhoumick won
RAVI KISHAN all+ everybody's resoundingly to wrest the two seats from the Left Front.
BJP confidence = A similar story unfolded in Kerala where the party has been
upended by the Congress and its allies in 19 of the 20 seats. The
CONSTITUENCY: Victorious India. CPM, which had five MPs in the Lok Sabha from Kerala, was
Gorakhpur Together we desperately fighting to win in Alappuzha. At the time of going
to press, the CPM and Congress candidates were in a neck-and-
OPPONENT: grow. Together neck fight with near equal vote shares and a margin of less than
Rambhual Nishad, SP we prosper. 10,000 votes. The Communist Party of India (CPI) also lost its
MARGIN: Together we will only seat of Thrissur in Kerala to the Congress.
301,664 votes build a strong While the Left seems to have been obliterated from their bas-
tions, they will continue to be represented in the Lok Sabha. The
and inclusive CPI and CPM have won two seats each in Tamil Nadu with
India. India good margins. The CPI won in the textile manufacturing town
National Democratic wins yet again
of Tiruppur, in addition to Nagapattinam, while the CPM won
in the industrial town of Coimbatore, in addition to Madurai.
Alliance (NDA) NARENDRA MODI, With these heavy losses, the communists’ representation
Prime Minister in the Lok Sabha has reduced from 10 seats to five. While the
MULAYAM SINGH United Progressive Left was successful in mobilising farmers, who marched to
cities such as Mumbai, to be associated with farmers’ caus-
YADAV, SP Alliance (UPA) es in Sikar and Mandsaur, it doesn’t seem to have translated
CONSTITUENCY: into electoral gains for the party.
Mainpuri Mahagathbandhan In a statement after the verdict became clear, the CPM
General Secretary Sitaram Yechury said, “The Indian electorate
OPPONENT: Prem Singh (MGB) has given a decisive verdict in favour of the BJP and its allies.
Shakya, BJP The CPI(M) has suffered a severe setback in these elections. We
MARGIN: shall introspect the reasons for this and draw proper lessons for
94,389 votes Others the future. There are huge challenges ahead regarding the
defence of our secular democratic republic, institutions of
* Till 11 pm
Source: CVoter; Trends till 11 pm Constitutional authority, people’s rights & livelihood issues.”

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4 VERDICT 2019 MUMBAI | FRIDAY, 24 MAY 2019

Fake issues don’t work. What’s the Congratulations to the winners. But all losers are
accountability of those who brought a bad not losers. We have to do a complete review and
Falling name to India by raking up the VVPAT issue? then we will share our views with you all.
BEHIND ARUN JAITLEY, finance minister MAMATA BANERJEE, West Bengal chief minister

RAHUL GANDHI
UP THROWS UP JUGGERNAUT ROLLS ON

INC
CONSTITUENCY: Amethi
OPPONENT:
Smriti Irani, BJP
MARGIN:
A SURPRISE
55,686 votes SMRITI IRANI STUNS RAHUL GANDHI IN THE CONGRESS’
BASTION OF AMETHI
VIRENDRA SINGH RAWAT Anupriya Patel and Pakaudi Lal Kol, had won of pollsters also forecast the consolidation of
Lucknow, 23 May from their respective seats. votes by the mahagathanbhan in UP which
Meanwhile, the mahagathbandhan won had elected 73 members for the National
he duo of Prime Minister 15 seats in UP. Under the grand alliance, the Democratic Alliance in 2014.
DIMPLE YADAV
SP
CONSTITUENCY: Kannuj
OPPONENT:
T Narendra Modi and Uttar Pradesh SP and BSP contested 37 and 38 seats respec-
(UP) Chief Minister Yogi tively, while leaving two seats for the
Adityanath has trumped the Rashtriya Lok Dal and three for the Congress.
mahagathbandhan of regional heavy- The share of winning seats among SP and
weights Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan BSP stood at 5 and 10 respectively. SP patri-
Meanwhile, the election in the state sprung
other surprises, perhaps too many, for the
Congress and the mahagathbandhan. For
example, Akshay Yadav, the son of SP General
Secretary Ram Gopal Yadav, lost to BJP’s
Subrat Pathak, BJP Samaj Party (BSP) in the polls. arch Mulayam Singh Yadav and party presi- Chandra Sen Jadaon in Firozabad seat. In
MARGIN: With counting still on at the time of filing dent Akhilesh won from Mainpuri and Badaun, SP President Akhilesh Yadav’s
10,159 votes this report, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Azamgarh constituencies respectively.
had already won 61 parliamentary seats and The critical takeaway of the UP results is
cousin, Dharmendra Yadav, lost to BJP nom-
inee Sanghmitra Maurya, the daughter of UP
was leading in three others across UP, the the indication of a tactical shift in the vot- minister and BSP turncoat Swami Prasad
state which elects the maximum (80) mem- ing pattern away from caste and commu- Maurya. Similarly, UP Congress President Raj
bers to the Lok Sabha. nity considerations. The mahagathband- Babbar and former Union minister Jitin
In one of the biggest upsets of the election, han was aimed at consolidating backward, Prasad lost in Fatehpur Sikri and Dhaurhara
Congress President Rahul Gandhi was Muslim and Dalit votes to create a winning seats, respectively. Former union ministers
stunned in the Congress’ stronghold of axis against the BJP. Salman Khurshid and R P N Singh lost from
Amethi by the BJP’s Smriti Irani by more In contrast, the BJP focused on Modi, Farrukhabad and Kushinagar, respectively.
AJIT SINGH RLD than 55,000 votes. In 2014, he had defeated nationalism and the sabka saath, sabka vikas The SP had some shocks too. The SP
CONSTITUENCY: Irani by a narrow margin of 100,000 votes. mantra of taking all communities together President’s wife Dimple Yadav was defeated
Muzaffarnagar Those in the BJP who, at the without special consideration by BJP’s Subrat Pathak in Kannuj. SP’s
OPPONENT: time of going to press, had won towards a particular caste or Muslim face and former UP minister Mohd
Sanjeev Kumar included Prime Minister section of society. This Azam Khan won in Rampur by defeating BJP
Balyan, BJP Narendra Modi (Varanasi) and appeared to have delivered the nominee and party turncoat Jaya Prada.
Union Home Minister Rajnath goods for the party. Meanwhile, Bhojpuri cinema star and BJP
MARGIN:
Singh (Lucknow) who defeated The Congress fielded candi- candidate Ravi Kishan scored a big win in
6,526 votes SP candidate Poonam Sinha, dates in nearly 70 seats but Gorakhpur, the turf of Adityanath. The seat
the wife of BJP turncoat could win only in Rae Bareli had gone to the combined Opposition can-
Shatrughan Sinha who is him- where United Progressive didate Praveen Nishad in the bypolls. Hema
self a Congress candidate from Alliance (UPA) Chairperson Malini won from Mathura.
Patna Sahib. Union Minister THE CRITICAL Sonia Gandhi was in fray. The Meanwhile, the virtual rout of the maha-
General (Ret) V K Singh won Congress’ game plan to gal- gathbandhan in UP is likely to spur a rethink
from Ghaziabad. The mother-
TAKEAWAY IS vanise its cadres by deploying by the SP and the BSP. Although the two had
son duo of Menaka Gandhi and THE INDICATION Priyanka Gandhi Vadra and for- reiterated their commitment towards work-
MILIND MURLI Varun Gandhi also emerged OF A TACTICAL mer Union minister Jyotiraditya ing together for the coming 2022 UP elec-
DEORA INC victorious from Sultanpur and SHIFT IN THE Scindia to manage the cam- tions, the unexpected result is likely to make
Pilibhit constituencies. VOTING paign failed to create any chem- them re-strategise.
CONSTITUENCY: In these polls, the BJP con- istry with the voters. The coma- In Uttarakhand, the BJP won all the five
Mumbai South
PATTERN, AWAY
tested in 78 seats. It left the two tose party organisational seats. The victorious candidates included
seats of Mirzapur and
FROM CASTE, structure in UP did the rest. Ramesh Pokhriyal Nishank from Haridwar.
OPPONENT:
Arvind Ganpat Robertsganj for its junior ally, COMMUNITY The exit polls also predicted Former CM and Congress leader Harish Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath celebrates the BJP’s lead in the Lok Sabha
Sawant, Shiv Sena Apna Dal (S) whose candidates, CONSIDERATIONS a BJP sweep although a couple Rawat lost to the BJP’s Ajay Bhatt in Nainital. elections at the party office in Lucknow PHOTO: PTI

MARGIN:
100,067 votes
MAHARASHTRA ODISHA

Voters print a photocopy of Split voting to vault BJP’s LS

URMILA
MATONDKAR
2014 as Congress hits bottom score, but Patnaik holds sway
ABHISHEK WAGHMARE NIRMALYA BEHERA & JAYAJIT DASH as the battle of civil servants,
INC TALLY THIS TIME
New Delhi, 23 May Bhubaneswar, 23 May with Sarangi, a former IAS offi-
CONSTITUENCY: Seats cer, taking on the superannu-
Mumbai North Despite the exit polls predicting A resurgent Bharatiya Janata ated IPS officer Patnaik.
BJP 23
that the Opposition tally in Party (BJP) made inroads into Another superannated IPS offi-
OPPONENT: Shiv Sena 18
Maharashtra could touch 18, the Odisha, and was seen leading in cer Prakash Mishra (BJP), too, is
Gopal Shetty (BJP) NCP 4
Congress and the Nationalist nine of the 21 Lok Sabha (LS) con- staring at defeat with BJD’s MP
MARGIN: Congress Party (NCP) alliance Congress 1 stituencies in the state, till latest from Cuttack Bhartruhari
465,247 votes won only five of the 48 Lok Sabha
seats (till going to press).
AIMIM 1 voting trends emerged.
The party — leading in 22 of
Mahtab, maintaining a lead of
around 60,000.
The BJP, Shiv Sena and NCP
Independent 1 the 146 polled Assembly con- Kendrapara, considered the
clinched 23, 18 and four seats, “If there was a Modi wave in stituencies — could have, at pocket borough of the BJD, may
respectively, the same figure as 2014, there was a silent wave best, secured three LS seats, but be retained by the regional party.
that of 2014. Even their vote share which turned into a tsunami split voting is set to buttress its The constituency has turned out
may remain nearly the same, this time. I thank the middle numbers in Parliament. to be a battle of prestige both for
with Shiv Sena going two notch- class and the underprivileged The BJP, the key challenger the BJP and the BJD.
es up, while Congress losing a CM Devendra Fadnavis and Shiv Sena chief who voted for us...” to the ruling Biju Janata Dal (BJD) CM Naveen Patnaik congratulated PM Puri, another crucial seat,
DUSHYANT percentage point. Uddhav Thackeray celebrate NDA’s victory in — DEVENDRA FADNAVIS in Odisha, had also profited from Narendra Modi for the BJP’s impressive is going through a see-saw of
CHAUTALA This result reinforces the Mumbai on Thursday PHOTO: PTI split voting in the state’s three- victory in the Lok Sabha polls electoral fortunes. After lead-
JANNAYAK JANATA PARTY authority of Chief Minister tier panchayat polls earlier, where ing in the initial rounds of
CONSTITUENCY: Devendra Fadnavis (48), who steered the campaign in Aurangabad. Imtiyaz Jaleel, a former journalist and a it performed exceptionally well, dislodging the Congress counting and later trailing Patra narrowly, BJD’s MP
Hisar the state, and avoided any loss of seats. member on the state Assembly won by a paltry margin of as the main Opposition. Pinakhi Mishra has again wrested advantage and was
Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray, too, retained his 5,000 votes. He belongs to the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Riding on the split voting phenomenon, the BJP is seen leading by a puny margin of 376 votes.
OPPONENT: tally. However, the mandate also compels the saffron Muslimeen (AIMIM), led by Asaduddin Owaisi. seemingly narrowing the gap with the redoubtable The BJP is also leading in Bolangir, Kalahandi,
Brijendra Singh, BJP alliance to stay together, despite differences. Nitin Gadkari won by 200,000 votes in Nagpur. BJD, which had whitewashed Opposition in 2014, bag- Sambalpur, Sundargarh and Bargarh.
MARGIN: The biggest surprise is the defeat of Ashok Chavan, NCP lost two of its incumbent seats, Kolhapur and ging 20 of the 21 seats. At Kandhamal, Achyutananda Samanta contesting on
314,068 votes president of the Congress state unit. The Congress failed Madha, which Sharad Pawar represented during UPA
to capitalise the anti-incumbency factor in the state, and years. It won two seats in Pune and Raigad districts, by
In the run-up to the 2019 elections, Prime Minister BJD ticket, is on the edge of a massive win, leading his
Narendra Modi, BJP President Amit Shah and a posse of nearest competitor — Kharabela Swain (BJP) — by over
shed its vote share from 18.6 per cent to 16.2 per cent. slender margins. Television actor Amol Kolhe won with a national party leaders campaigned extensively. 109,000 votes. In the Sambalpur Lok Sabha constituency,
Another surprise, and a moment of lost prestige for margin of about 60,000 votes in Shirur. In Konkan, former In Bhubaneswar, Aparajita Sarangi (BJP) is main- BJD’s candidate and the government’s former works sec-
Shiv Sena, is the defeat of Chandrakant Khaire, incumbent state irrigation minister Sunil Tatkare defeated Union taining a lead of over 18,100 votes over her nearest com- retary Nalini Kanta Pradhan was trailing BJP’s Nitesh
Shiv Sena MP from Marathwada’s administrative centre, heavy industries minister Anant Geete from Raigad. petitor Arup Patnaik of the BJD. Bhubaneswar is billed Ganga Deb by a margin of 15,098 votes.

SUSHILKUMAR

Bengal’s Green Fort falls

SHINDE INC
CONSTITUENCY:
Solapur
OPPONENT: As you would have already guessed it, the sonal popularity was tremendously high. with me at your own peril. Her language But all this would have possibly made quences of her brazen pandering to
Jai Sidheshwar big story of Verdict 2019 is not the Modi Yet Bengal fell to the Modi Juggernaut in got coarser and cruder. On one occasion, little or no difference to the outcome of Islamism in the guise of Muslim rights.
Shivachary Tsunami that has swept through nearly all the most spectacular fashion on May 23. while addressing a public rally, she used a the parliamentary elections had it not This ranged from offensive orders on
Mahaswamiji, BJP of India, felling all Opposition and slaying Once a favoured ally now turned bitter foe, Bengali bazar expression that broadly been for the reverse polarisation that was Durga Puja celebrations to allowing crim-
MARGIN: political stalwarts in their bastions. The Mamata Banerjee could not stop the BJP means to push a bamboo up a person’s set into motion not by the BJP’s incen- inals to run riot in places across the state.
big story is the storming of West Bengal. from occupying West Bengal, or at least large backside while threatening Amit Shah. diary identity politics but Mamata The Bengali Hindu middleclasses
158,608 votes Although BJP president chunks of it across con- Between last May’s panchayat elections Banerjee’s misplaced policy of promoting responded by striking a belligerent pos-
Amit Shah kept insisting stituencies. So what went and this summer’s parliamentary elec- Muslims over Hindus, simply because in ture that till now has been alien to Bengal:
that his party was poised wrong? Ironically, Mamata tions, it was a downward spiral as she West Bengal they form a sizeable com- Jai Shri Ram and the celebration of Hindus
to strike big in this state, Banerjee resorted to the became increasingly protective of her munity of a third or more of the state’s festivals largely observed in the northern
there were few takers for same tactics that had been political base while betraying her ambi- voters. She was able to dislodge the Left states became the counterfoil to Mamata
this claim, primarily on used by the CPI(M)-led Left tion to emerge as a national level player. Front from power by cornering the Banerjee’s perceived communal bias. No
account of three reasons. Front, against which she She held a joint rally with opposition par- Muslim vote and adding incremental amount of her chanting Hindu mantras
First, the BJP has no fought a long battle, finally ties and projected herself as an alternative support to it. She thought that was from public platforms could dilute the
PRAKASH RAJ local organisation worth its bringing it down, to deny to Narendra Modi at the head of a coalition enough to keep her in power. conviction that she had become inimical to
INDEPENDENT name in the state and the any space to a political com- government in which the TMC would have What she had not accounted for, and Hindu interests.
leadership there is tired petitor. Her hegemony had the largest number of seats. what was missed by most political The BJP capitalised on this. And histo-
CONSTITUENCY: and jaded. Second, West KANCHAN GUPTA to be complete, just as the It’s this driving ambition that made her observers and analysts, is the counter ry was made on May 23. This could well
Bangalore Central Bengal had shut its doors Left Front’s was. lose all sense of proportion: She had to win polarisation among Hindus who faced turn into the undoing of TMC Raj, just as
OPPONENT: to the BJP during the high tide of the Towards that end she used suppres- all 42 seats in West Bengal at any cost. the brunt of assertive Islamisation of Singur and Nandigram had turned the tide
P C Mohan, BJP Ayodhya movement although the party sive means that did little to shore up her Meanwhile, she drifted away from the con- society and culture in West Bengal’s hin- against the Left leading to the CPI(M)’s evic-
had fielded high profile candidates like image of a dictatorial leader. Last year’s stitutional obligations of an elected Chief terland. The Left Front had been able to tion from power. Between now and 2021
MARGIN:
Victor Banerjee. A ‘north Indian party’ was bloody panchayat elections which wit- Minister, refusing to cooperate with central astutely manage demographic changes Bengal’s politics could change irrevocably.
573,947 votes unwelcome. Third, Chief Minister Mamata nessed the brutalisation of democracy at agencies like the CBI and the NIA. Her pub- caused by illegal immigration from
* Till 11 pm
Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress had the village level were meant to push back lic utterances transmogrified into a relent- Bangladesh; Mamata Banerjee allowed The author is a Distinguished Fellow at
both muscle and local support: Didi’s per- the BJP with a stern message: Entangle less rant, often bereft of logic and reason. herself to be unmindful of the conse- Observer Research Foundation

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6 VERDICT 2019
As my lead nears 50,000 with 72 per cent
counted, I feel like a batsman who has scored
Taking the a century while his team has lost!
LEAD SHASHI THAROOR, Thiruvananthapuram MP
RAHUL GANDHI INC
CHANAKYA NITI
CONSTITUENCY:
Wayanad DELIVERING MODI 2.0: Amit Shah has kept BJP's poll machinery
OPPONENT: P P Suneer,
CPI
well oiled. He may now be rewarded with a Cabinet post
MARGIN:
ARCHIS MOHAN
431,770 votes New Delhi, 23 May
haratiya Janata Party (BJP)
B President Amit Shah has had a mete-
oric rise in national politics. Almost
a decade back in mid-2010, Shah
spent time in jail in the Sohrabuddin Sheikh
encounter case. Four years later, Shah was
DR. SHASHI the BJP chief and could now be the most
THAROOR INC important minister in the new Narendra
Modi cabinet. Many in his party believe Shah
CONSTITUENCY: would be the natural successor to Modi.
Thiruvananthapuram On Thursday, Shah won the Gandhinagar
OPPONENT: seat, his first Lok Sabha contest, by over
Kummanam 555,000 votes. More than that, while the BJP
Rajasekharan, BJP won on a second term under Modi’s leader-
ship, party credits Shah, the Chanakya, of
MARGIN: masterminding the win, as he has done on
99,989 votes several occasions in the last five years.
Shah as BJP chief, ever since he took
over from Rajnath Singh in July 2014, has
kept the party galvanised and battle ready
at all times. His objective is to have the BJP
rule from "panchayat to Parliament". Over
the past five years, Shah has delivered
unlikely electoral victories for the BJP.
The BJP chief has also nursed younger
SADHVI PRAGYA
leaders, and unlike the rival Congress where
SINGH THAKUR BJP
it can take leaders years before they get any
CONSTITUENCY: rewards, Shah has fast-tracked key leaders to
Bhopal key ministerial posts at the Centre or in states,
or ensure their entry into the Rajya Sabha.
OPPONENT: Digvijaya
The key difference between Shah’s tenure
Singh, INC
and those of his predecessors, younger lead-
MARGIN: ers say, is that he rewards parakram when
364,822 votes earlier only those indulging in parikrama, or
spending time around leaders in Delhi,
would get promoted in the party.
Another feature of Shah’s tenure has
been to strengthen party organisation, build
ASADUDDIN BIHAR
OWAISI ALL INDIA
MAJLIS-E-ITTEHADUL
MUSLIMEEN Caste no longer in equation, NDA wins
CONSTITUENCY:
Hyderabad
OPPONENT: Dr.
big; Tejashwi’s leadership in question
Bhagavanth Rao, BJP SATYAVRAT MISHRA
MARGIN: Patna, 23 May
282,186 votes Decimating the Congress-Rashtriya Janata Dal’s
(RJD’s) Grand Alliance, which was banking on
the caste factor to defeat the National
Democratic Alliance (NDA), the Modi tsunami
is making a clean sweep in Bihar.
The NDA has bagged a whopping 39 out of
the 40 seats in the Lok Sabha polls in the state.
This is so far the best performance by any polit-
GIRIRAJ SINGH BJP ical formation in Bihar in decades.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had been
CONSTITUENCY:
leading in all the 17 seats it contested in the
Begusarai state, while Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (U) or
OPPONENT: Kanhaiya JD(U) had been ahead in 16 constituencies at the
Kumar, CPI time of filing of this report.
MARGIN: The JD(U) was locked in a close contest in
the Jehanabad seat, where it maintained a thin
422,217 votes margin of just a thousand plus votes.
Meanwhile, the JD(U)’s Syed Mahmmood
Ashraf had been behind Congress’s
Mohammad Jawed in Kishanganj. On the oth-
er hand, Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti
Party (LJP), the third NDA constituent in Bihar,
maintained a clear lead in all the six seats it
contested this time.
ANURAG SINGH Major leaders of the NDA in the state, includ-
THAKUR BJP ing all the Union ministers and prominent faces,
are well ahead in their respective constituencies.
CONSTITUENCY: Union minister Giriraj Singh won in Begusarai
Hamirpur with a margin of 419,000 votes, while former
OPPONENT: Ram Lal Jawaharlal University students’ union leader
Thakur, INC Kanhaiya Kumar bagged only 267,000 votes.
MARGIN:
399,572 votes
RAJASTHAN
In just five months, BJP’s fortunes
CHIRAG KUMAR
PASWAN
take a sharp turn for the better
LOK JANSHAKTI PARTY SHREYA JAI
New Delhi, 23 May
CONSTITUENCY:
Jamui In just five months after facing a defeat in the
OPPONENT: Bhudeo Assembly election in Rajasthan, the Bhartiya
Choudhary, RLSP Janata Party (BJP) made a stunning comeback.
The party increased its vote share to 58.4 per
MARGIN: cent in this Lok Sabha election from 39.3 per
241,049 votes cent in the state polls, which were held in
December 2018.
It is a déjà vu for the BJP which in the 2014
general election had swept all seats in the state.
For the ruling Congress in the state, it was an
embarrassing result -- it did not win a single
seat. Even Vaibhav Gehlot, son of Chief Minister
Ashok Gehlot, lost the election from Jodhpur by
JUAL ORAM BJP nearly 200,000 votes. The BJP's Gajendra Singh
Shekhawat defeated him.
CONSTITUENCY: Although, Gehlot senior remains popular,
SUNDERGARH there was anger in the public regarding his
promise of a farm loan waiver, which is yet to be
OPPONENT: George
Tirkey, INC implemented.
The Modi juggernaut was also inevitable to
MARGIN:
be stalled in the state. The BJP’s strong cam-
218,097 votes paign built around military actions in Pulwama
and Balakot clicked the most in Rajasthan.
* Till 11 pm In Barmer, Kailash Chaudhury had an easy
win, thanks to the dialogue around military
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MUMBAI | FRIDAY, 24 MAY 2019
It is high time for the Opposition to introspect and
shun politics of negativity. People have rejected
the negative politics of casteism, dynastic politics
YOGI ADITYANATH, Uttar Pradesh CM
party offices and libraries in hundreds of other parties, weather Himanta Biswa Sarma
districts across the country. from the Congress in Assam or Mukul Roy
Under Shah, the BJP’s poll machinery is from the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal.
well oiled, with practices like appointing If Sarma helped the BJP win the Assam
panna pramukh, or polling booth workers, Assembly polls of 2016, Roy’s importance
being adopted by other parties, however, has been proved in the Lok Sabha elections
with not as much success since they lack in Bengal with the BJP winning its highest
the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh’s sup- number of seats in that state. Sarma has
port. With the huge membership drive that also strengthened the BJP in the rest of the
Shah undertook in 2016, he has tried to northeastern states. Shah, his associates
reduce the BJP’s reliance on the RSS. say, has always believed that the allies
For the 2019 polls, the BJP chief deployed would keep coming as long as the party is
over 7,000 leaders to oversee the work of delivering in the polls.
polling committees on the over 400-seats the The year 2010 was one of the bleakest
BJP contested. These committees were asked for Shah. He had been to jail and later the BJP President Amit Shah arrives at the party headquarters in Delhi PHOTO: PTI
to focus on 120-seats the party had lost in Supreme Court had barred him from living
2014, but believed it could win in 2019. The in Gujarat. Shah then spent time in Delhi electoral performance in the state. The year ended with the BJP wresting
BJP also deployed 3,000 full-time workers. and Uttar Pradesh. In 2013, then BJP chief However, 2015 did not go well for the Himachal Pradesh from the Congress and
Under Shah, the BJP has become an Rajnath Singh appointed him the general BJP. The Modi government was criticised retaining Gujarat in a tough election.
effective vehicle to spread the message of secretary of the state. for its land Bill. The Opposition swooped on Another of the BJP’s success was defeating
Modi government’s policies, programmes Few had expected Shah to deliver 73 of the PM’s choice of attire when he wore a suit its ideological rival the Left Front in Tripura.
and schemes. Ministers are frequently roped UP’s 80 Lok Sabha seats in 2014, which includ- monogrammed with his name. The BJP suf- The BJP performed well in Karnataka to
in to address the media, or even ed two seats of ally Apna Dal. A fered a huge defeat in Delhi and then by the emerge the single largest party in the elec-
party workers in different parts few months later, Shah replaced end of that year in Bihar. tions in May 2018, but could not prevent the
of the country to popularise Singh as the BJP chief. Shah then In Bihar, Modi and Shah waited for their Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular) from
Modi government schemes. proceeded to deliver Haryana, opportunity and kept their channels of forming the government.
A backroom strategist to start Jharkhand and Maharashtra. communication open with Janata Dal The BJP suffered defeats in the Hindi
with, Shah has now become a Until then, the BJP had nev- (United) chief Nitish Kumar. As Kumar’s heartland states of Chhattisgarh, Madhya
political leader in his own right. er formed governments in frustration with the Rashtriya Janata Dal Pradesh and Rajasthan in December 2018.
In the 2019 polls, he led from the Haryana and Maharashtra on increased and Congress President Rahul However, the BJP by sweeping these states
front, holding over 161 rallies its own steam. In both Haryana Gandhi refused to ditch his party’s old ally in the Lok Sabha polls has somewhat
and visiting over 312 Lok Sabha and Maharashtra, Shah took the to support Kumar, the BJP swooped in. The undone the damage. The Karnataka and
seats, clocking over 158,000 km. IN THE 2019 risk of severing ties with allies result was that Kumar’s JD (U) was back in Madhya Pradesh governments have wafer-
The BJP under Shah has like the Haryana Janhit the NDA fold by July 2017. thin majorities and the two states could soon
proved to be an election-win-
POLLS, SHAH Congress and Shiv Sena. The year 2016 proved marginally better see BJP governments.
ning machine, but it has also HELD OVER 161 For the Jammu and for the BJP as the party improved its vote In his speeches, Shah frequently praises
been keen to strike alliances RALLIES AND Kashmir Assembly polls, Shah share in West Bengal and formed its first ancient Indian philosopher Chanakya and
wherever the task of winning VISITED OVER deputed party leader Ram ever government in Assam. Shah’s next big Hindu Mahasabha leader V D Savarkar. At his
an election on its own has been 312 LOK SABHA Madhav to give shape to an success came in 2017 when the BJP won a official residence at 11, Akbar Road in Lutyens
difficult. On occasions, the BJP SEATS alliance government after the massive win in Uttar Pradesh, held on to Delhi, only two sketches adorn Shah’s living
has imported key leaders from BJP turned out its best ever Goa by getting smaller parties to support it. room wall, that of Chanakya and Savarkar.
Chronicle of a
victory foretold
Kripal Yadav had been ahead of RJD superemo I wrote recently in these pages, “In they have been handed out by the
Lalu Prasad’s daughter Misa Bharti in the parliamentary elections…, one Modi juggernaut.
Patliputra. Union minister Raj Kumar Singh is
ahead in Arrah.
candidate, Narendra Modi of the The biggest loser of them all is
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is fight- India’s grand old party, the Congress,
Meanwhile, the once kingmaker of national ing… in 543 constituencies,” (“Modi: now reduced to a Gandhi family fief-
politics, Lalu Prasad and his Muslim-Yadav line From pariah to messiah?” Business dom. It may have improved its tally
has completely gone off track. Standard,May 7, 2019), a refrain since a bit from 2014, but possibly not
The Congress is leading in only one seat, at picked up by many others. Mr Modi enough to claim the position of the
the time of filing of this report. Even jailed RJD was theissue. Such has been his com- leader of opposition. This improve-
chief’s elder son Tej Pratap Yadav’s estranged mand over the electoral discourse ment is confined to Tamil Nadu,
father-in-law Chandrika Roy was thrown away and imagination (evident even last Kerala and Punjab, in all of which its
in this renewed Modi wave. December when the BJP lost three central leadership — read president
The results are expected to fuel further in- state elections), his victory was fore- Rahul Gandhi —played no role.
fighting in the RJD’s first family as Tej had told, and the party was bound to Wherever the Congress faced the BJP
2014 2019* raised questions on the leadership ability of his repeat its 2014 performance. Exit one-on-one, it fared pathetically, win-
Seats Political parties Seats younger brother and Lalu’s heir apparent poll after exit poll indicated this five ning seats fewer than fingers on one
won won Tejashwi Yadav. days ago, and the results announced hand in each state. Rahul Gandhi
16 Bharatiya Janata Party 17 Tej has staked claim to the RJD’s leadership yesterday confirmed that it had done may have displayed much energy
and also fielded his aides in as many as five con- even better. Mr Modi had made this and strained his vocal chords, but his
1
2
Indian National Congress
Janata Dal (United)
1
16 stituencies against RJD candidates in Bihar. claim in his last campaign rally, but narrative of the Modi corruption, bor-
5 Lok Jan Shakti Party 6 The state is set to go to assembly polls later most of us treated it as mere propa- dering on the vituperative, found no
3 Rashtriya Janata Dal 0 next year. ganda hyperbole. purchase at all in the campaign. His
Not just Lalu, former chief minister Jitan This victory also signals the near- possible loss in the family pocket bor-
2 Rashtriya Lok Samata Party 0
Ram Manjhi and ex-Union minister Upendra certain end of some long-running ough of 40 years, Amethi, says it all.
Source: EC *Total number of seats: 40 Kushwaha are also facing defeat in this elec- political shows. N Chandrababu The Congress was supposed to be
tion. Neither Manjhi nor Kushwaha could get Naidu’s agitprop shenanigans as the seeking revival rather than survival,
“The margin of my victory will be larger than voters’ support as nationalism hogged the lime- electoral process but since it has not
the vote Kanhiya would get,” the Union minis- light, setting aside caste equations. reached its finale quite revived, its
ter and BJP nominee from Begusarai had told Kushwaha lost in both Karakat and were clearly born survival may have
Business Standard a few days ago. Ujaiyarpur constituencies, while Manjhi lost out of a despera- been put at risk.
On the other hand, senior Union minister Gaya to JD(U)’s Vijay Manjhi. The election put tion caused by Yogendra Yadav
Ravi Shankar Prasad defeated his friend- a huge question mark on their political future as defeat in both has provocatively
turned-political-foe Shatrughan Sinha by both of them once again failed the electoral test assembly and par- called for the
almost 134,000 votes. Union minister Ram after the 2015 Bihar assembly election. liamentary elec- Congress’ demise.
tions looming Another set of
large, but the com- losers are the pun-
plete wipe-out of dits who engaged
the Telugu Desam
SHREEKANT SAMBRANI wildly in
(TDP) was not whataboutery dur-
expected. It would ing the campaign.
be a matter of time of what is left of it Coomi Kapoor wrote two days ago,
finds safer havens in Jagan Mohan “When it comes to elections, experts
Reddy’s party, with the BJP always … often tend to wear blinkers”
waiting to accommodate all comers. (“Unseeing the wave,” The Indian
Navin Patnaik has won a fifth term in Express, May 22, 2019), something
Odisha, but he never appeared to rel- with which I whole-heartedly agree.
operations. The Barmer region has important ish much the brutal battle of the bal- Some experts have already begun
military installations like Jaisalmer Air Force lot. Given concerns about his health explaining with alacrity what they
station, Uttarlai Air Force station, and the and there being virtually no second could not foresee. Crows in the vicin-
Pokhran test range. Barmer has the longest con- rung, this regional party could also ity of media centres are endangered!
tinuous border with Pakistan among all con- meet the same fate as the TDP. For the BJP, winning the election
stituencies. If, as widely expected, the totter- was the easy part, with all due appre-
In Jaipur Rural, the fight was between two ing Karnataka coalition collapses in ciation of the effort — and the mon-
sports icons. The BJP re-fielded Rajyavardhan the aftermath of the BJP national ey! — spent. It faces many challenges
Rathore, minister of state for information and victory, the father-sons proprietary — slowing economy, disappearing
technology, and sports and youth affairs, a concern of the Janata Dal (Secular) jobs, distressed peasantry — that are
decorated Army officer, an Olympics silver would be yet another casualty. And only too well-known. More immedi-
medal winner, and three-time the crew of the leaky ship of the ately, it has a major mountain to
Commonwealth Games gold medal winner in Nationalist Congress Party would climb to get its business done. Last
the double-trap shooting. start thinking of abandoning its mas- five years have shown that small
The Congress candidate was Krishna Poonia, ter, Sharad Pawar. Some have numbers of the opposition can often
a Commonwealth Games gold medallist, and a already done so. Without the glue of exacerbate difficulties in passing the
two-time Asian Games bronze medal winner power, the mahagathbandhans of legislative agenda. Since neither the
in the discus. She is a member of the Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh and Bihar will wither winners nor the losers are likely to
Assembly from Sadulpur. Both Poonia and away, and the family firms of the two show grace, we should be prepared
Rathore have been awarded the Padma Shri. Yadav patriarchs, Mulayam Singh for noisier and more frequent parlia-
The Congress also hoped to draw Jat votes 2014 2019* and Lalu Prasad, will not be able to mentary disruptions.
--------------------------------- --------------------------------------------
with Poonia. But none worked in their favour. withstand fissures within the family, But, in the end, as Brinda Karat
Seats Political parties Seats
Rathore won by a margin of more than not to speak of outside influences. had said after the Left bounced back
won won
380,000 votes. The two doughty ladies, Mayawati in 2004, this is the moment for Mr
The Bhartiya Tribal Party (BTP), which was 25 Bharatiya Janata Party
0 Rashtriya Loktantrik Party
24
1
and Mamata Banerjee, have rather Modi and the BJP to savour their
supposed to pull tribal votes in southern more loyal bands of followers, but famous victory.
Rajasthan areas, had no impact whatsoever, as 0 Indian National Congress 0 their aura has much diminished,
analysts said they all went to the BJP. Source: EC *Total number of seats: 25 possibly grievously, at the reverses The writer is an economist
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MUMBAI | FRIDAY, 24 MAY 2019 VERDICT 2019 7

The numbers have come down from places The results are unexpected. I respect the mandate
where we expected Oppn to win. Today is the of the people and congratulate PM Narendra Modi
day of Modi’s success. ‘Jo jeeta wohi sikandar’ for emerging victorious for the second time
Falling
OMAR ABDULLAH, National Conference vice-president H D KUMARASWAMY, Karnataka chief minister BEHIND

STATE POLLS BUCK TREND

LOCAL STALWARTS: Naveen Patnaik is set for a fifth term in Odisha; Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSR Congress sweeps
JYOTIRADITYA
SCINDIA INC

Andhra Pradesh; SKM ahead of ruling SDF in Sikkim; Prema Khandu-led BJP set to retain Arunachal Pradesh CONSTITUENCY:
Guna
OPPONENT: Krishna Pal
JAYAJIT DASH, B DASARATH REDDY & ISHITA AYAN DUTT Singh, BJP
Bhubaneswar/ Hyderabad/ Kolkata, 23 May MARGIN:

he Assembly elections in Odisha,

125,549 votes

T Andhra Pradesh and Sikkim appear

to have bucked the Modi wave.
In Odisha, Naveen Patnaik has
retained his bastion; in Andhra Pradesh, Y S
Jagan Mohan Reddy has stunned
Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party
(TDP) with a huge victory while the Sikkim
Krantikari Morcha (SKM) may be set to BHUPINDER SINGH
upset the Sikkim Democratic Front’s (SDF’s) HOODA INC
winning streak.
Odisha Chief Minister (CM) Naveen CONSTITUENCY: Sonipat
Patnaik is coasting home to a fifth straight OPPONENT:
term in power, contradicting naysayers on Ramesh Chander
anti-incumbency and dip in mass appeal. Kaushik, BJP
Patnaik, who first tasted electoral success MARGIN:
in Odisha’s Assembly poll in 2000, has seen
colossal mandates in his favour in each elec-
164,864 votes
tion thereafter. Latest trends show his Biju
Janata Dal (BJD) is winning or leading in 113 of (From left) A Jagan Mohan Reddy supporter celebrates the victory of YSR Congress Party in Andhra Pradesh. BJD workers rejoice the party’s win in Odisha
the 146 Assembly segments.
Elections in Patkura, a constituency in the ly rooted for the BJD, overwhelmed by the What might have clicked for him however
coastal district of Kendrapara, had to be CM’s unblemished record, his suite of reforms HOW THE STATES FARED IN ASSEMBLY POLLS
is his year-long padyatra in the run-up to elec-
deferred first due to the demise of BJD’s nom- and people-centric programmes. Going by the tions 2019. Just as his father had done in the
inee Ved Prakash Agarwal and later as the trends in Odisha Assembly poll outcome, peo- run up to the 2004 elections, that brought vic-
state government appealed to the Election ple here have not widely accepted either the
ODISHA ANDHRA PRADESH SIKKIM tory for the Congress party, Jagan undertook MEHBOOBA MUFTI
 2014  2019  
Commission of India to pull back dates after BJP or Congress. Also, the BJP gaining hand-  2014 outcome (147/147)
2014 2019 PDP
the padyatra, covering more than 3,500 km
the state was pounded by the cataclysmic somely at the national level and the same trend Voting trends in 2019 polls (146/147)* (175 seats)
150
(32 seats) over 13 districts. The stage is now set for Jagan CONSTITUENCY:
storm Fani. Even as Patnaik rules the Odisha not reflecting in Odisha calls for an introspec- 117 113 Reddy to become the next CM. Anantnag
Assembly, the BJP is sure to improve its tally tion by the party”, said an analyst. 103 The SDF in Sikkim — in power since 1994 —
in 2019. The BJP, leading in 22 seats, is seen rel- The BJD, tipped to emerge as the single is, however, trailing. Pawan Chamling, the OPPONENT:
egating Congress, the principal Opposition in largest party in Odisha, has polled 44.6 per 66 longest serving CM of India with five terms — Hasnain Masoodi,
Odisha, to the third spot. cent of the votes cast. BJP is next that put him in the league of West Bengal’s National Conference
The BJD in 2014, had won a with 32.62 per cent share whereas 22 16 24 22 Jyoti Basu — was seeking a sixth this time. MARGIN:
10 9 4 2 6 - 15 10 17
landslide victory, grabbing 117
of the Assembly’s strength of
the Congress could manage bare-
ly 16 per cent in a bipolar battle.
But the Sikkim Kranti Morcha (SKM) has won
14 seats and is leading in three of the 32-seat
9,656 votes
BJD BJP Congress Others TDP YSR Others SDF SKM
147. Congress was a distant sec- In Andhra Pradesh, Opposition * Lead/won till 11 pm Congress assembly, according to the Election
ond with 16 seats while BJP had YSR Congress Party, headed by Commission trends. The SDF has won nine
to contend at the third spot with Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy, has and is leading in six.
wins in only 10 seats. swept the polls, winning or lead- Congress candidates. father YS Rajasekhara Reddy’s untimely death SDF’s tally is a major upset compared to the
2019 elections are an ing in 150 out of the 175 seats, dec- Actor-politician Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena in September 2009, he battled against the results of 2014 when it had won 22 of the seats.
encore for the BJD as the imating CM N Chandrababu Party, that had fought the elections inde- Congress leadership and against Chandrababu In 2009, it had won all the seats. The BJP —
regional party is again headed Naidu’s TDP. Compared to 103 pendently, lost wherever it contested. Pawan Naidu after losing out to the TDP in 2014 elec- which formed an alliance with the SKM but
for a crushing two-thirds IN CONTRAST TO seats in the previous Assembly Kalyan has lost from both the Kapu-dominat- tions, by a narrow margin. YSR CP had won 66 parted ways ahead of the elections — has not MALLIKARJUN
majority in the Assembly. The THE NATIONAL elections, the TDP has won or is ed Gajuwaka seat in Visakhapatnam district as seats in the previous Assembly elections. bagged any seat. But then Sikkim has always KHARGE INC
Congress, on the other hand, is TREND, THE BJP leading in just 24 this time. well as Bhimavaram in West Godavari district. He also faced a tough political challenge in favoured local parties.
CONSTITUENCY:
left licking the wounds of its
2014 disaster with the party
FAILED TO MARK wasThe surge in favour of Reddy In contrast to the national trend, the BJP the hands of Naidu when the ruling party had In Arunchal Pradesh, Prema Khandu-led
complete with several high failed to mark its presence in Andhra Pradesh’s poached 20 of YSR Congress’s elected repre- BJP is set to retain his hold hold with the par- Gulbarga
leading in just nine seats. ITS PRESENCE IN profile leaders from the ruling fiercely fought electoral battle. sentatives. Jagan has been facing charges of ty having won 23 seats and leading in seven of OPPONENT:
“In Odisha, it was a contest ANDHRA AND TDP, including Naidu’s son and The elections of 2019 finally gave Jagan quid pro quo financial gains in 12 cases filed by the 60-seat assembly. The Congress has won Umesh G Jadhav, BJP
between Brand Modi and Brand ODISHA POLLS minister Nara Lokesh facing Reddy’s eight-year political struggle a suc- the Central Bureau of Investigation on the three and is leading in one while the Janata Dal MARGIN:
Naveen. People in Odisha large- defeat in the hands YSR cessful closure. In the first four years, after his direction from the AP High Court. (United) has won six and is leading in one.
95,452 votes
N FOCUS ON ECONOMY N

MODI FARES Need for new Modinomics SHARAD YADAV

RJD

BETTER THAN CHALLENGES: The incoming govt will have to encourage CONSTITUENCY:
Madhepura
private investments, bring down cost of capital
MANMOHAN IN INDIVJAL DHASMANA & ARUP ROYCHOUDHURY
OPPONENT: Dinesh
Chandra Yadav, JD(U)
MARGIN:
CONTROLLING New Delhi, 23 May
251,242 votes
The Narendra Modi dispensation has little
INFLATION time to celebrate the landslide win in the
Lok Sabha election as it will have to imme-
diately address challenges facing the econ-
omy, which is witnessing a slowdown.
While the economy is stuck at 7-7.2 per
The first stintof the Narendra Modi governmentis leaving behind half the inflation rate for its cent growth for the last two financial years,
second avatar compared to what it gotfrom the UPA-2. UPA-1 had also handed over a high and is not expected to grow any better this MANVENDRA
inflation rate of more than 8 per centto its second variant. The NDAgovernment, however, time, the government found hard to meet SINGH INC
could not accelerate the economic growth rate much. It is officiallyprojected to be just 7 per the fiscal deficit target of 3.4 per cent for CONSTITUENCY:
centfor FY19, which is only0.6 percentage pointhigher than what UPA-2 had left for the NDAin FY19. The challenge now is to turn around Barmer
the so-called policyparalysis year. Though exports growth in the final year of the NDA the economy in these circumstances.
governmentlooks quite higher than what UPA-2 had left, this kind of gauge gives one-sided The incoming government is set out to OPPONENT:
picture as the outbound shipments declined in two years ofthe Modi government. As such, stamp its reform agenda fast, with the buzz Kailash Choudhary,
that an informal cabinet meeting could be BJP
exports in the lastyear ofthe NDAgovernmentrose just5.3 per centas compared to the
terminal year of UPA-2. On the other hand, this growth was at a staggering 70 per centin held as early as Friday. MARGIN:
the concluding year of UPA-2 over the lastyear of UPA-1. INDIVJAL DHASMANA Even before the voting had ended, the
Prime Minister’s Office had directed all
323,808 votes
 What UPA-2 inherited from UPA-1  What Modi government inherited from UPA-2 departments to come up with a ‘100-day
 What the next government will inherit plan’, listing all the steps and reforms that
could be taken over the next coming days. The BJP has promised in its manifesto zero-interest loans of up to ~100,000 to
The Finance Ministry has also listed farmers for five years
13.59

such steps that can be carried out. “The

past five years were about cleaning up and resources to the rest of the economy.” the infrastructure sector by 2024 is too
331.02

consolidating the system. The next five As the economy faces muted rural con- much of an ambitious task.
314.40

JAYAPRADA
9.85

years will be about growth and unshackling sumption, financial services firm Nomura The total capital expenditure is esti-
9.06

the system,” said a senior Finance Ministry suggested that the Pradhan Mantri Kisan mated at ~9.61 trillion for FY19 (revised esti- NAHATA BJP
8.06****

official a day before the results. Samman Nidhi Yojana reach every farmer. mates). This is projected to decline mar-
7.0**

4.29
6.7*

CONSTITUENCY:
6.4

The government will have to create con- The interim Budget for FY20 had pro- ginally to ~9.53 trillion in the Budget
185.29

2.6***

dition for perking up private investments in vided for ~6,000 a year to all farmer families Estimates for 2019-20. To take this to ~100
Rampur
4.66

2.4

the economy. After measures such as owning up to two hectares of land in three trillion, or over 10 times, is a tall order. OPPONENT:
1.7

Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, and oth- phases a year. This would cost the exchequer Neeru Ahuja, partner at Deloitte, said: Mohammad Azam
er steps to clean up the banks, the govern- just ~12,000 crore over the current ~75,000 “We look forward to a new direction and Khan, SP
ment is expected to take a few more steps crore a year, since 86 per cent of farmers fresh ideas from the next finance minister MARGIN:
GDP growth in Exports Exports growth Current a/c deficit WPI inflation to further bring down the cost of capital to families have been covered under it. leading to an easier and simpler direct tax
(% YoY) ($ bn) in (% YoY) as (% of GDP) (% YoY) boost investment, an official said. Nomura also suggested the govern- regime.” On indirect tax front, the issue of 109,997 votes
Encouraging private investments ment not to go for farm-debt waiver but simplification of GST returns is in the
requires that fiscal deficit is kept under focus on easier and cheaper access of works. But the task lies more between the
12,026
350,162

check so that resources are not crowded
out. William Foster, vice-president of
Moody’s Investors Service, said: “At this
stage, we expect the broad push towards
245,258.5
credit to farmers. The BJP promised in its Centre and states.
manifesto zero-interest loans of up to ~1 There is also talk of beginning judicial
lakh to farmers for five years. Currently, the reforms after discussions with the judiciary.
government bears a burden of ~15,000 This is at the heart of everything that the

(Jan ‘14)
411.9

8.0

fiscal consolidation to remain, although crore a year to enable farmers get crop PM hopes to do in the second stint.
4.4

3,300

304.2

with greater policy emphasis on support- loans at 3 per cent. If 3 per cent additional Even pending initiatives such as land MOON MOON SEN
6.0

5,759##
3.4#

251.9

(Apr ‘19)
143,061

ing low incomes.” subvention is given, the burden would reforms cannot be carried forward until TMC
6.0
(Apr ‘09)
4.75

There are different views as well. D K increase to ~30,000 crore. judicial reforms happen, said an official.
Srivastava, chief policy advisor at EY, said CRISIL said as consumer demand The government has bitten the bullet CONSTITUENCY:
the Centre should set up a counter-cycli- improves gradually, capacity utilisation on bank mergers. It will now be expanding Asansol
cal fund and let fiscal deficit widen up to will increase and private investments in it to create economies of scale. OPPONENT:
Centre’s fiscal Total installed Roads Forex reserves at Policy rate 1.5 percentage of GDP at the time of select sectors would inch up. But a mate- Some banks are being considered for
the end of yr Babul Supriyo, BJP
deficit as power capacity constructed (%) a slowdown. Shubhada Rao, chief econo- rial change in the private capex cycle is merger. Punjab National Bank and Canara
% of GDP (MW) (km) ($ bn) MARGIN:
mist at YES Bank, said: “With political and unlikely this fiscal due to ongoing Bank could merge with themselves small-
*Based on earlier 2004-05 series and different methodology, ** second advance estimates, *** first nine months, policy continuity in place, it is imperative deleveraging, it said. er banks. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, chief eco- 197,637 votes
****based on 2004-05 series, # revised estimates, ## till Nov, 2018 that the central government steps up The government’s promise that it will nomic advisor at the SBI group, said it is * Till 11 pm
Source: MoSPI, budget papers, RBI, Central Electricity Authority, Transport Ministry, Commerce Department spending so as to unlock the flow of make capital investment of ~100 trillion in better to start early.

https://t.me/SSC4Exams https://t.me/Banking4Exams https://t.me/UPSC4Exams

 https://t.me/TheHindu_Zone_official

8 VERDICT 2019 MUMBAI | FRIDAY, 24 MAY 2019

I am confident that the govt will now push through Over the next five years, NDA 2.0 must introduce policies that are
Global wishes decisive structural reforms on the foundation of a bold, innovative and transformational to translate the economic
rules-based economic order that is now firmly in place potential into prosperity for all
POUR IN KUMAR MANGALAM BIRLA, chairman, Aditya Birla Group KIRAN MAZUMDAR-SHAW, chairperson, Biocon

PM TALKS UNITY, HUMILITY

“CONGRATULATIONS TO PRIME
MINISTER @NARENDRAMODI
AND HIS BJP PARTY ON THEIR
BIG ELECTION VICTORY! GREAT
THINGS ARE IN STORE FOR THE
US-INDIA PARTNERSHIP WITH
THE RETURN OF PM MODI AT THE
HELM. I LOOK FORWARD TO
CONTINUING OUR IMPORTANT
WORK TOGETHER!”
DONALD TRUMP, President, US
“I AM CONVINCED THAT AS PM OF
INDIA, YOU WILL CONTINUE
EFFORTS TO HELP STRENGTHEN
LONG-TIME FRIENDSHIP
BETWEEN OUR PEOPLE & ENSURE
THE ALL-ROUND DEVELOPMENT
OF THE RUSSIAN-INDIAN
STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP”
VLADIMIR PUTIN, President, Russia
40-MINUTE SPEECH: Modi underlines his commitment to nationalism and welfare of the poor
ARCHIS MOHAN fibre” of his being for the people of India.
New Delhi, 23 May Decrying those who have used caste divi-
sions for electoral benefits, the PM said
n his and his party’s most glorious the country will now have only two castes
I hour, Prime Minister Narendra — the poor and those who want to alle-
Modi on Thursday appealed to par- viate poverty. He said his government’s
ty workers to show humility, take responsibility would be to help not only
everyone along and resolved not to take the poor, but also those who want to lift
any step out of ill intent. people out of poverty. Voters have dealt a
The Prime Minister addressed hun- huge blow to the parties doing politics
dreds of rapturous party workers and in the names of castes, he said.
supporters at the Bharatiya Janata Party “People are chanting Modi, Modi. But
(BJP) national headquarters in the this is not a victory of Modi, it is the victory
national capital, who had waited amid a of people who are desperate for honesty in
steady drizzle to listen to him after it the system,” Modi said.
became evident that their party was on The PM said the victory was of toiling
its way to an unprecedented and historic farmers who struggle to feed the nation,
electoral triumph. of those who now live in proper houses,
In his address to the people of the coun- of the middle class that follows the rules,
try, Modi said he might at times commit a pays taxes, but wondered if his taxes
mistake but he will not do anything with were being used for the benefit of the
bad intent. He also advised workers and country. In the last five years, people
supporters to show restraint. have realised that the mon-
"We have to move ahead. ey they are contributing in
We have to take everyone “YOU HAVE taxes has been put to
with us, even our opponents. FILLED THIS nation-building, he said.
We have to work for the ben- “I will not do anything for
efit of the country,” he said.
FAKIR'S BAG myself. I will devote every
Modi urged everyone to for- WITH A LOT OF moment of my time and
get the rancour of the bitter HOPE. ALL YOUR every fibre of my being for
and often nasty campaign. HOPES, DREAMS, my countrymen,” the PM
“What's past is past,” he said. AMBITIONS ARE said. “Whenever you judge
The PM’s nearly 40- DEPENDENT me, judge me on these three
minute speech was a mix of parameters. If I fall short on
him underlining his com-
ON IT” these, curse me. But I assure
mitment to nationalism but my countrymen that what I PM Narendra Modi and BJP President Amit Shah pay tribute to S P Mukherjee and Deen Dayal Upadhyay at the party
also to the welfare of the have said in public I will do headquarters, in New Delhi on Thursday PHOTO: PTI
poor. Modi also hinted at his humble my best to fulfil,” he said.
beginnings, that he did not want anything The PM said his government is com- ical party could not level even one charge that he stood for Hastinapur, and people government was committed to provid-
for himself and his life was devoted to the mitted to the spirit of federalism, follow of corruption,” he said. have spoken in the elections that they ing housing for all by 2022. Modi
people of the country. “You have filled the constitution and take everyone along Modi said the verdict has vindicated stood for India. reminded people that the electoral win
this fakir's bag with a lot of hope. All your as the country is run with consensus. his view that it was not parties but people The PM said this win was of people has come at a time when the country is
hopes, dreams, ambitions are dependent Modi said the 2019 election was a rare one who fought this election. Modi likened who were pining for an honest govern- celebrating 150 years of Mahatma
on it," he said. where corruption and inflation were not the elections with the Mahabharata. He ment, a victory of those who had for Gandhi's birth, and appealed to the peo-
Modi said he is committed to devote planks on which the opposition fought. said Krishna was asked after the war the last 70 years lacked even the most ple to treat the next five years as the
“every moment” of his time and “every “This was the first one in which any polit- which side he supported and he answered basic amenities, like toilets. He said his period between 1942 and 47.

“THE RESULTS ARE A

RE-APPROVAL OF YOUR
LEADERSHIP AND THE WAY YOU
LEAD THE GREATEST
DEMOCRACY... WE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THE
GREAT FRIENDSHIP BETWEEN
US & INDIA AND ISRAEL”
BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, PM, Israel
“ON THE OCCASION OF THE NDA
WINNING THE 17TH LOK SABHA
ELECTION OF INDIA UNDER YOUR
LEADERSHIP, I WOULD LIKE TO
EXTEND MY HEART-FELT
CONGRATULATIONS”
XI JINPING, President, China
“I CONGRATULATE PRIME
MINISTER MODI ON THE
ELECTORAL VICTORY OF BJP
AND ALLIES. LOOK FORWARD
TO WORKING WITH HIM FOR
PEACE, PROGRESS AND
PROSPERITY IN SOUTH ASIA”
IMRAN KHAN, PM, Pakistan
Sweets & slogans: Historic mandate Young stars who
sparks jubilation at BJP HQs made their mark
ARUP ROYCHOUDHURY
New Delhi, 23 May
As the numbers flashed for Amethi, a huge
cheer went up among the crowd of Bharatiya
Janata Party (BJP) supporters gathered in front
of the giant television at the party’s national
headquarters in central Delhi. At noon, Rahul
Gandhi was trailing Smriti Irani by about 6,500
votes. “Someone get an oxygen cylinder fast —
Rahul baba is about to faint,” quipped a BJP
worker, a party flag resting on his shoulders.
It turned out that the jibe wasn’t premature.
By evening, Irani had emerged as a giant killer,
defeating the Congress president in his family
bastion by over 50,000 votes.
There were scenes of utter jubilation at the
BJP’s imposing new headquarters on Deen
Dayal Upadhyay Marg. Thousands of
supporters thronged the complex to celebrate
the huge mandate that the voters had given
the party. A part of the crowd spilled on to the
street, blocking traffic on the busy arterial
road. They were waving BJP flags, bursting
crackers, dancing to drum beats, chanting
slogans and giving impromptu bytes to
reporters.
Till early evening, busloads of supporters
were being brought in from the National Capital
Region and the neighbouring states. Though
men outnumbered women, there were lots of
women supporters as well — from those
dressed in resplendent sarees to younger
women wearing T-shirts bearing legends like
‘NaMo Again’ and ‘Main Bhi Chowdikar’.
The celebrations began right from the
morning, the moment early leads showed that
the BJP was headed for another majority. The
slogans that were raised ranged from “Ek hi
naara, ek hi kaam, Jai Shri Ram, Jai Shri Ram”
to “Har Har Modi, ghar ghar Modi” to the
outright bizarre, “Tel laga lo Dabur kaa, naam
mita do Babar kaa”. Of course, the standard
slogan of “Bharat Mata ki Jai” was still there.
And in the midst of it all, the presence of the
man in whose name this election was fought
and won loomed large everywhere. The party
office was filled with Narendra Modi’s larger-
than-life cutouts and posters. Even children
were made to dress up like him.
If you asked the supporters what secured
their party the largest Lok Sabha mandate since
with huge wins
Known for his firebrand speeches, Tejasvi Surya, 28, has
become the Bharatiya Janata Party’s youngest MP, defeating
Congress’s B K Hariprasad in the Bangalore South constituency
by 331,000 votes.
In West Bengal, Trinamool Congress’s Mimi Chakraborty, an
actor, registered a big victory from the Jadavpur seat with 688,000
votes against BJP’s Anupam Hazra. Nusrat Jahan, another actor
who fought on a TMC ticket, was on her way to victory from
Basirhat, with 718,000 votes, when this paper went to press.
Prajwal Revanna, son of Karnataka’s PWD minister
H D Revanna, won from
Hassan seat. He turned out to
be the only face saver for the
HD Deve Gowda family.
A political worker from
Kerala, Ramya Haridas, won
from the reserved
constituency of Alathur with a
margin of over 158,000 votes.
Congress-led UDF candidate TEJASVI SURYA,
Hibi Eden, who is also a sitting 28, BJP
MLA in Ernakulam, and Dean CONSTITUENCY:
Kuriakose, were the other Bangalore South
candidates who emerged
(Karnataka),
The party office was filled with Narendra Modi’s larger-than-life cutouts and posters. Even victorious.
POLITICAL WORKER
children were made to dress up like him PHOTO: PTI ARCHIS MOHAN &PTI
1984 and brought Modi back as the first non- way from Bijnor.
Congress Prime Minister for a second term, the By afternoon, the huge, 1.7 lakh square feet
answers were consistent. BJP headquarters was packed with people. The
“This election proves that nationalism is the ground floor and the front courtyard were
biggest issue in the country. Today, the global chock-a-bloc with party workers, journalists
trend is that only nationalists parties win. There and security persons. In the backyard, a line of
should be no place for anti-national makeshift studios were set up as the BJP
sentiments,” said Satyendra Chauhan, a BJP brought out its cadre of spokespersons in full
supporter. strength. The canteen and the makeshift buffet
MIMI CHAKRABORTY, NUSRAT JAHAN RUHI,
It was clear that the promises made during were bursting at the seams. In the upper floors,
campaigning, and the core issues on which the where the senior leadership of the party have 30, AITC 29, TRINAMOOL CONGRESS
party’s campaign was built, was still resonating their offices, sweets were being distributed and CONSTITUENCY: CONSTITUENCY:
Jadavpur, Basirhat,
with the supporters. “I want Modijito finish selfies clicked.
(West Bengal) (West Bengal)
terrorism in Kashmir and make Pakistan bite Some were reminding the general
the dust again and again like he did in Balakot. I secretaries about the hard work they had put in: ACTOR ACTOR
am confident that Modijiwill also make the “Sir, we are the Telangana group, we worked
temple in Ayodhya,” said Sameer Ahuja, a BJP hard.” Or, “Sir, we’re from the Bengal group, we
worker from Delhi. fulfilled our promises.”
“I am so happy that I am speechless. We have One by one, the BJP’s national leaders
got more than what we expected. This mandate started trooping in. Party president Amit Shah
means that BJP is not only winning in 2019, but would arrive later. But the one they were all
also in 2024,” said Aditya Sharma, a party waiting for was their hero. They were waiting for
supporter, who had come to celebrate all the Narendra Modi.

PRAJWAL REVANNA, RAMYA HARIDAS,

28, JD(S) 32, INC
 396 mn tweets were and Gujarati THE MOST MENTIONED PROFILES CONSTITUENCY: CONSTITUENCY:
TWITTER SEES made between Jan 1  National security @narendramodi 54,344 times Hassan, (Karnataka) Alathur, (Kerala)
and May 23
RECORD ACTIVITY  600% rise in
emerged as the most
talked about election-
@BJP4India 18,834, H D DEVE GOWDA’S GRANDSON POLITICAL WORKER

“CONGRATULATIONS TO PM DURING ELECTIONS conversations on related topic, followed

@NARENDRAMODI ON A
STRONG MANDATE FROM THE
PEOPLE OF INDIA. THE GOVT AND
THE PEOPLE OF AFGHANISTAN
LOOK FORWARD TO EXPANDING
COOPERATION BETWEEN OUR
TWO DEMOCRACIES IN PURSUIT
OF REGIONAL COOPERATION”
ASHRAF GHANI, President,
Afghanistan
by religion, jobs and
@RahulGandhi 9,997 times
@AmitShah 9,099 times
Twitter during the
Experts may be divided on the elections employment,
agriculture, and TRENDS ON THE COUNTING DAY
role Twitter played in the just-  #LokSabhaElections2019
emoji featured hashtags demonetisation 3.2 million Tweets were made,
concluded general elections, between April 11
in not just English and one-third of these recorded
but going by the numbers, the and May 19 between 3 pm and 4 pm
Hindi, but also Tamil
medium was certainly used 407,000 Election-related tweets
THE MOST POPULAR HASHTAGS HIBI EDEN, DEAN KURIAKOSE,
extensively during the period. 36, INC 37, INC
#ElectionResults2019, #Verdict2019, 252,000 Retweets
Here is a look: CONSTITUENCY: CONSTITUENCY:
#LokSabhaElections2019, #VijayiBharat, 164 Unique hashtags Ernakulam, Idukki, (Kerala)
Data as of 7 pm; sources: Twitter, Indraprastha Institute of #ModiAaRahaHai, #Amethi and #ModiAaGaya
Information Technology Delhi and Hyderabad NEHA ALAWADHI (Kerala) ADVOCATE AND
MLA YOUTH LEADER

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MUMBAI | FRIDAY, 24 MAY 2019 VERDICT 2019 9

I congratulate Narendra Modi for this historic Representation of Dalits and the deprived
win and look forward to working together for sections has increased over the years, but the
the betterment of the people of Delhi ruling BJP has totally hijacked it through the EVMs
Taking the
ARVIND KEJRIWAL, Delhi chief minister MAYAWATI, BSP president LEAD

CONGRESS: ENDGAME
LOSING STREAK: Who is responsible for the party’s yet another
ABHISHEK
BANERJEE TMC

defeat? For Rahul, it is between ‘my party and me’ CONSTITUENCY:

Diamond Harbour
OPPONENT:
ADITI PHADNIS alliance — it did not win anywhere on Sonia Gandhi from Rae Bareli), the par- Nilanjan Roy, BJP
New Delhi, 23 May its own steam. In Tamil Nadu, the ty’s entire top leadership in Karnataka
MARGIN:
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) (including the former leader of the
he Congress’s precipitous defeat helped the party. In Kerala, it led the Opposition Mallikarjuna Kharge and sen- 320,678 votes
T in the Lok Sabha election has United Democratic Front. Being part of
many top leaders of the party the mahagathbandhan in Bihar did not
wondering if it will still be help it — the party won a single seat.
around or whether the BJP has attained Only in Punjab did the party report a
its objective of ‘Congress-mukt Bharat’. handsome victory on its own.
ior leaders like B K Hariprasad) was
defeated. In Madhya Pradesh, its former
chief minister Digvijaya Singh lost from
Bhopal as did Jyotiraditya Scindia from
Guna. Scindia was considered so influ-
The party that hovered around 50 seats, The party is now terribly afraid that it ential that he was also made party in
marginally more than the 45 in the last will lose at least two of its state govern- charge of western UP.
Lok Sabha, managed to get seats prima- ments — one in Karnataka and the other The party fielded Priyanka Gandhi BABUL SUPRIYO
rily in Punjab and south India (four in Madhya Pradesh — as it has a wafer- Vadra as its scout in eastern UP. Her BJP
in Telangana, eight in Tamil Nadu and 19 thin majority in both states. political influence appears to have been
in Kerala). In the 2018 Karnataka minimal. CONSTITUENCY:
“We seriously have to Assembly election, having The party has been wiped out in Asansol
introspect. It is time for a won 104 seats, the BJP failed Maharashtra and despite reporting earli- OPPONENT:
complete organisational to secure a majority (113 seats er gains in Gujarat, it has not been able to Moon Moon Sen, TMC
overhaul,” said a party con- out of a total of 224 in the win a single seat there. It did not report
testant from Tamil Nadu, assembly). As a result, the any victories from Himachal Pradesh or MARGIN:
who was leading his rivals. JD(S) with 38 seats and the Uttarakhand. Though it was leading from 197,637 votes
The party had to deny spec- Congress with 77 seats came in three seats in Assam, Sushmita Dev,
ulation that Congress together to form the govern- the charismatic Mahila Congress chief
President Rahul Gandhi had THE PARTY IS ment. According to this deal, who contested from Silchar, was way Congress General
offered his resignation as H D Kumaraswamy became behind — by over 80,000 votes. Secretary Priyanka
party president. NOW TERRIBLY the chief minister. It needs The party will no doubt set up a com- Gandhi Vadra and
“The reports are incor- AFRAID THAT IT just nine MLAs to cross the mittee to understand why it lost the elec- leader Rajeev Shukla
rect,” said spokesperson WILL LOSE AT floor and topple the govern- tions. In 2007, then party president Sonia during the party
Randeep Singh Surjewala. LEAST TWO OF ment. In Madhya Pradesh, Gandhi had set up the committee to President Rahul
KIREN RIJIJU
When asked on fixing ITS STATE the majority margin is even address future challenges. Gandhi’s press
BJP
responsibility for the loss, lower with the difference The panel which included big names conference following
Rahul said: “This is between
GOVERNMENTS between the Congress and as members, including Sam Pitroda, con- the Lok Sabha polls CONSTITUENCY:
my party and me. Between — ONE IN the BJP being just five MLAs. tinues to have a presence — on the web- results, at AICC Arunachal West
me and the Congress CWC.” KARNATAKA The losers are so many it is site of the party. The leadership might headquarters in
OPPONENT:
The sobering fact for the AND THE OTHER hard to count. Apart from think of reviving it now in the face of its New Delhi on
Nabam Tuki,
Congress is that everywhere IN MADHYA Rahul Gandhi himself losing defeat and looming elections in Thursday PHOTO: PTI
INC
it managed to win in the PRADESH from Amethi (the party’s lone Maharashtra and Haryana due at the end
south, it was part of an winner in Uttar Pradesh was of the year. MARGIN:
126,928 votes
TELANGANA & ANDHRA PRADESH
No takers for
Jagan in control as Naidu routed; ‘kingmakers’
KCR on top, but TRS loses sheen ADITI PHADNIS
New Delhi, 23 May

They were billed as kingmakers and groups that would make or

SUKHBIR SINGH
BADAL
SHIROMANI AKALI DAL
CONSTITUENCY:
YSRC chief says his priority would be to secure special status for Andhra break the future of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and
extract their due to support the candidature of Narendra Modi as
Firozpur
prime minister. OPPONENT:
B DASARATH REDDY But the Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS), the Biju Janata Dal Sher Singh Ghubaya,
Hyderabad, 23 May (BJD), and the YSR Congress will now have limited utility in the INC
National Democratic Alliance (NDA), which has emerged as the MARGIN:
The Lok Sabha election in Andhra Pradesh is
bringing about a paradigm shift in political equa-
prime challenger to the governments in Telangana and Odisha.
The BJP kept its sword sheathed while campaigning in
198,850 votes
tions in favour of the YSR Congress and its chief Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. It targeted the Congress and the
Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy. Telugu Desam Party (TDP) as its
However, in neighbouring Telangana, chief primary enemy, letting off the TRS
minister K Chandrasekhara Rao (also known as and the YSR Congress from any
KCR) and his party, the Telangana Rashtra Samiti blame for misrule.
(TRS), are set to receive a jolt. The contrast was even more
The TRS is winning only nine out of the 17 Lok stark in Odisha where throughout
Sabha seats, down by two from its tally in the pre- the election campaign the BJP SUNNY DEOL
vious election. This is in complete contrast to attacked the Biju Janata Dal’s fam- BJP
what KCR had expected. ily rule, its inefficiency and cor-
CONSTITUENCY:
On the other hand, the YSR Congress was lead- ruption, but at the fag end of the
ing in 22 of the 25 Lok Sabha seats in Andhra and campaign, as Odisha was grap-
Gurdaspur
the Telugu Desam Party or TDP was ahead in the pling with the cyclone, held a OPPONENT: Sunil
remaining three. press conference with Chief Jakhar, INC
Senior leaders in Andhra, such a former civil YSR Congress President Y S Jaganmohan Reddy (right) enjoys a cordial relationship with the PM Minister Naveen Patnaik, calling MARGIN:
aviation minister Ashok Gajapati Raju, and former his handling of the cyclone ‘effi-
Union minister V Kishore Chandra Dev, who ship with the BJP leader- Kavitha faced defeat at the cient’ and effective’. 82,459 votes
fought in the election on a TDP ticket, faced defeat ship, particularly Prime
REPORT CARD hands of BJP candidate This is despite the fact that for
at the hands of YSR Congress candidates. Minister Narendra Modi. ANDHRA PRADESH 2019 2014* Dharmapuri Aravind. several days after the cyclone, the
With 22 seats in its kitty and seeing a close This may help him get addi- BJP snatched three seats capital, Bhubaneshwar, was with-
Telugu Desam 3 17
contest in Vijayawada and Srikakulam con- tional financial support, from TRS in its bastions — out water and electricity.
stituencies, the YSR Congress could emerge the among other things, from Yuvajana Sramika Nizamabad, Karimnagar and The BJP has now emerged as
third largest party in the Lok Sabha after nation- the Centre. Rythu Congress Party 22 9 Adilabad — while retaining the principal opposition in
al parties BJP and the Congress, if it can add one Meanwhile in Telangana, TELANGANA the Secunderabad seat. Telangana. TDP President Chandrababu
more to its tally. the Lok Sabha election is This comes despite the Not only the chief minister’s Naidu addresses a press KIRRON KHER BJP
Despite winning big number of seats, the proving to be a big morale All India Majlis-e party changing its candidate daughter, K Kavitha, has been conference in Undavalli on
YSR Congress may have little influence in booster for the BJP. It has -Ittehadul Muslimeen 1 1 and denying ticket to former defeated from Nizamabad by the Thursday PHOTO: PTI
CONSTITUENCY:
national politics and may not even make much won four seats in the state minister and sitting MP BJP’s Dharmapuri Aravind, but Chandigarh
Bharatiya Janata Party 4 3
headway towards achieving the special catego- compared to only one it had Bandaru Dattatreya. also the party has managed to win Karimnagar and Adilabad, while OPPONENT: Pawan
ry status for Andhra, the promise it made dur- won in the previous elections. Indian National Congress 3 1 The TRS had won 88 of retaining the Secunderabad seat despite fielding a new candidate, Kumar Bansal,
ing the elections. This is because the NDA needs The Congress has also Telangana Rashtra the 119 seats in the G Kishan Reddy, who replaced former minister and MP Bandaru INC
no additional support to form the government increased its tally to three Samithi 9 11 Telangana Assembly polls Dattatreya. Kishan Reddy is expected to get a berth in the council of MARGIN:
at the Centre. seats in this elections com- in December 2018. This ministers.
Jagan had declared his support for the par- pared to one in 2014.
*In 2014, Andhra Pradesh was yet to be
bifurcated and had 42 seats. Currently,
victory was a bigger one In Andhra Pradesh, the BJP has not got a single seat in the assem- 46,970 votes
ty, which will support and give special category KCR had targeted to win Andhra Pradesh has 25 seats, while compared to the previous bly or get an MP to the Lok Sabha from the state. The consequence
status to Andhra. In an interview to a national 16 seats and had hoped that Telangana has 17 seats state polls. But the party could be that the government led by YSR Congress’s Jagan Mohan
news channel on Thursday, Jagan reiterated this would catapult him to a was jolted by the Lok Sabha Redy will be neutral towards the central government. BJP chief
that his priority would be to secure special sta- national role. In the 17th seat, he has backed his shocker just four months later. Amit Shah has congratulated Reddy for his victory.
tus for his state as that can only change the for- friend, MIM president Asaduddin Owaisi. The Congress is also seeing a presence this A new realignment should be expected in equations between
tunes of its people. KCR’s hopes received a big setback after his time after being beaten badly in the December the non-BJP, non-Congress parties and the government at the
Jagan maintains a cordial working relation- daughter and sitting MP from Nizamabad K Assembly elections. Centre.
COL.
RAJYAVARDHAN
RATHORE BJP

Time to stimulate: Fiscally, and monetarily CONSTITUENCY:

Jaipur Rural
OPPONENT: Krishna
Poonia, INC
Elections are often checkpoints, in an — where a fair amount of economic around, or the time to bear the fruits of overall stimulus bias will likely be more over the last one week. But beyond that,
economy and the market's long-term reform (GST, IBC) was initiated, and some hard work, the first time around. consumption oriented. This needs to be it’s the business, earnings and MARGIN:
journey. This 2019 checkpoint is now India’s corporate and small business So, what should the new government supported by a substantially aggressive investment outlook that will once again 393,171 votes
past, and with no big sector has been do now? We believe the need, and the monetary stimulus, and approach, from take over. That cycle is muted for now,
surprises, should allow restructuring, and path, is reasonably well laid out. The the RBI. Rates need to be lower, and and in the normal course of events, one
the government and taking fair pain. A lot of government has to get India’s subdued liquidity needs to be enhanced, if banks, should expect only moderate market
the market to quickly this readjustment and business cycle going, and it will not NBFCs and other intermediaries start returns over the next year. The new
focus on the road pain is now likely in happen by itself, or only by the new lending again, to get the economic cycle government, however, does come with
ahead. One of the their last legs, or behind government formation. The back on track. While this approach will a long new term, a mandate to get
bigger positives of this — but has been showing government needs to make it happen. It probably not find favour with fiscal growth back up. If it were to embark on
election verdict is that in the last of investment should provide a fiscal stimulus to the conservatives — but if growth has to a fairly aggressive fiscal and monetary HEMA MALINI BJP
the new government or consumption economy, with the very first Budget. come back, this is the way to get a stimulus and have the backdrop of a
should have a fair idea measures. The timing of The government has shown such virtuous growth cycle back. This will relatively benign global environment, it CONSTITUENCY:
of the road map, has the government's intent with its last budget — with its also eventually flow through to the would bring more cheer to the Mathura
the policymaking ADITYA NARAIN second term should, PM-KISAN programme, or the income economy’s well being: On growth, economy, and stronger returns for the OPPONENT: Kunwar
engine running, and therefore, be a lot better support approach, and which it will savings and a reducing fiscal deficit. market, and investors. Narendra Singh, RLD
can get to work than the first time likely build on it (already there in the So what is in it for the markets. Relief
immediately. It also comes after a fairly around; and could well be the manifesto). We would also expect a to start with — though that’s largely The writer is head-Research, Institutional MARGIN:
bumpy economic ride over the last term opportunity it did not have the last time further investment push, although the reflected in the market’s performance Equities, Edelweiss Securities 293,471 votes
* Till 11:00 pm

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10 VERDICT 2019 MUMBAI | FRIDAY, 24 MAY 2019

Having continuity in the government with Industry is tremendously excited about Modi 2.0.
an even bigger majority means the This is a win for India, a win for India’s people, a
Falling government can take stronger measures win for India’s development
BEHIND N R NARAYANA MURTHY, Co-founder, Infosys VIKRAM S KIRLOSKAR, President, Confederation of Indian Industry

STREET FIGHT: TAKING STOCK: THE SECOND INNINGS

RISE & FALL

VAIBHAV GEHLOT
INC
CONSTITUENCY:
Jodhpur
OPPONENT:
Gajendra Singh
Shekhawat, BJP TRENDING DOWN: Sensex plunges 1,300 after topping 40,000
MARGIN:
274,440 votes intra-day as economic concerns trigger profit-booking
SAMIE MODAK & HAMSINI KARTHIK materially different from NDA 1.0,” said on the domestic as well as the global front.
Mumbai, 23 May Prabhat Awasthi, Head (India), Nomura. “The next two quarters look challeng-
Profit-taking emerged at higher levels ing. There are concerns over the monsoons
he benchmark indices ended with amid weak global cues, as investors had and its impact on the rural economy. In

ATISH
CONSTITUENCY:
AAP T losses, even as the Narendra Modi- largely priced in an NDA victory after the
led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) exit polls, said experts. On Monday, the
was set to record a landslide win in benchmark indices had rallied close to 4
the general elections. The higher-than- per cent, their biggest single-day gain in
expected seat tally for the National six years, after most exit polls indicated
addition, the revival of non-banking finan-
cial companies is critical for the automo-
bile sector demand, and for the overall earn-
ings growth revival. Budgetary allocation
towards capital and revenue expenditure
East Delhi Democratic Alliance (NDA) triggered that Modi will retain power with a com- will be important to watch,” said A
OPPONENT: Dinesh aggressive buying in early trade, taking the fortable margin. Balasubramanian, chief executive officer of D-DAY: THE ROAD TAKEN
Gautam Gambhir, Sensex and Nifty past 40,000 and 12,000, “Investors who took positions ahead of Aditya Birla Sun Life.
respectively, for the first time ever. The the election outcome unwound their posi- There were more declining stocks as Lok Sabha elections SENSEX
BJP
MARGIN: indices, however, gave up all gains in the tions,” said Anand Radhakrishnan, manag- compared to advancing ones, on both the Year Results date Results date close High Low Swings
last hour of trade as investors fret over eco- ing director and chief investment officer at Sensex, Nifty and overall markets. HDFC 1996 05/12/96 3,750.4 3,751.8 3,711.5 1.1
476,828 votes nomic slowdown, sluggish earnings growth, Franklin Templeton India. “The election Bank, ITC and HDFC were the biggest drag 1998 03/03/98 3,646.0 3,772.2 3,600.1 4.8
and expensive valuations. verdict comes in the backdrop of the earn- on the Sensex. IndusInd Bank and ICICI
The Sensex ended at 38,811.4, down 299 ings season and results commentary that Bank — which rose 5.2 per cent and 1.3 per
1999 10/07/99 4,963.1 4,985.2 4,810.2 3.6
points, or 0.8 per cent over its previous day’s hasn’t been strong. Investors will be in a cent — made the best contribution. 2004 05/13/04 5,399.5 5,487.3 5,131.0 6.9
close. The index dropped 1,314 points, or wait-and-watch mode before taking aggres- The fall in mid- and small-cap indices 2009 05/16/09 14,284.2 14,284.2 13,479.4 6.0
3.27 per cent, from a record sive positions. More broad- was relatively lower, at 0.2 per cent each. 2014 05/16/14 24,121.7 25,375.6 23,873.2 6.3
intra-day high of 40,125. In based earnings growth is The India VIX, a gauge that measures 2019 05/23/19 38,811.4 40,125.0 38,651.6 3.8
terms of points, this was the important for wider recovery volatility, plunged 29 per cent. The index
DEEPENDER biggest intra-day slide since in the market.” had surged to four-year highs on account of
SINGH HOODA January 2008. The Nifty fell 81 Wild swings are fairly com- uncertainty surrounding the results. MOVERS AND SHAKERS TRACKING THE RUN
INC points, or 0.7 per cent, to close mon following election results, FPIs bought shares worth ~1,352 crore, BSE price in ~ Nifty50 intra-day
at 11,657, after climbing to but Thursday’s range of 3.3 per while their domestic counterparts were net
CONSTITUENCY: Rohtak 12,041 earlier in the session. cent, in comparison, was nar- sellers to the tune of ~594 crore. This week, GAINERS May 23 1-day % change 12,100
OPPONENT: The rupee ended at 70.02, rower than the previous two FPIs have bought shares worth nearly IndusInd Bank 1,596.9 5.2
Arvind Kumar 0.35 per cent lower over its pre- occasions. ~3,000 crore. Coal India 244.1 1.6
Sharma, BJP vious close of 69.67 to the dol- In 2009 and 2014, the Foreign brokerages said the election out- 12,000
MARGIN: lar. The 10-year government Sensex had swung 6 per cent in come would be positive for the markets and
Hero MotoCorp 2,739.7 1.5
11,657.1
YES Bank 139.8 1.5
2,636 votes security closed at 7.24 per cent,
compared to previous close of
intra-day trade.
From a valuation stand-
economy. In a note, Morgan Stanley said it
expects low food prices, lower inflation, fis- ICICI Bank 410.6 1.3
11,900
7.26 per cent. PROFIT-TAKING point, there is little legroom for cal consolidation, infrastructure spending,
“The election result, in EMERGED AT the markets to rally sharply focus on FDI, and strong foreign policies 11,800
essence, is a clear status quo HIGHER LEVELS from current levels, say after Modi’s return. The brokerage expects LOSERS
scenario, given the continued AS INVESTORS experts. The benchmark Nifty the Sensex to climb to 45,000 and the Nifty Vedanta 157.3 -5.5
BJP majority. From a market is currently trading at 18 times to top 13,500, by June 2020.
11,737.9
HAD LARGELY ITC 288.5 -3.7 11,700
perspective, the result its one-year forward earnings Goldman Sachs in a note said: “Going
removes uncertainty and
PRICED IN AN estimate, higher than the 10- forward, we see potential structural
HDFC Bank 2,334.4 -2.9
MISA BHARTI infuses political stability. NDA VICTORY year average of 16 times. reforms focusing on four key themes land, Tata Motors 175.0 -2.5 11,600
RJD Longer term, the big question AFTER THE Besides lofty valuations, mar- labour, privatisation and export Bajaj Fin 3,378.0 -2.0 May 22 May 23,’19
CONSTITUENCY: is whether NDA 2.0 would be EXIT POLLS kets also face challenges both promotion.” Compiled by BS Research Bureau

Pataliputra
OPPONENT: Ram Kripal
Yadav, BJP VOICES
MARGIN:
39,321 votes ADI GODREJ PAWAN GOENKA KAKU NAKHATE VETRI SUBRAMANIAM HARSH MARIWALA
Chairman, CEO & MD, President and Country Head, Group President & Head (equity), Chairman,
Godrej Group Mahindra & Mahindra Bank of America UTI Mutual Fund Marico Group

Centre should focus Manufacturing has Majority augurs Credit, liquidity Priorities have to
SHATRUGHAN
on GDP growth to be competitive well for policy should top agenda change in 2nd term
SINHA INC I think it is very good The mandate is even Today’s verdict is pro- For the market and The performance of the
CONSTITUENCY: that the NDA has come more decisive than incumbency and economy, the return of ruling coalition in the
Patna Sahib back to power. It will what the most staunch reflects the general Modi signals continuity elections has beaten
lead to economic supporters of BJP+ satisfaction of voters in policy. The outcome all expectations,
OPPONENT:
growth, which we would have expected. on the government’s has also voided any tail including exit polls.
Ravi Shankar Prasad, badly need right now. This augurs well for the performance. The risk related to a Having said that, we
BJP The verdict will give country because this is electorate rewarded potentially unstable need to have a
MARGIN: the government a a reconfirmation on the government for its coalition government. stronger opposition. I
284,657 votes mandate to take
action. That is key. They were earlier in
the direction the
Centre had taken during its first term.
consistent policies and
project execution capabilities, in both
Equity markets have
moved up recently, signaling comfort with
think, there is need for
introspection among opposition parties.
election mode. Now they will get down to We all wanted a strong Centre with a social as well as economic spheres. this outcome, but face headwinds from The focus of the new government
business, which is important for the decisive mandate from the people, to A clear majority augurs well for policy valuations. The focus shifts from politics to should shift from welfare to reforms. The
development of the economy. allow them to take bold decisions. The continuity and supports our house view of economy and policy. last five years saw greater thrust on
Above all, GDP growth is what it should next five years can be golden provided the fiscal prudence in the years to come. We Bloomberg consensus forecasts for FY20 welfare rather than on reforms, though
concentrate on. That is because growth government, industry and the civil society think lowering lending rates, bank GDP growth for have started pointing to a there were some key measures such as the
will bring jobs, improve income, and work together. recapitalisation, and re-couping forex dip from September 2018. High-frequency Goods and Services Tax, and Insolvency
spending power. It will also help address The immediate job for the government reserves will top the Centre’s agenda. With indicators and company feedback suggest and Bankruptcy Code. Demonetisation,
RAGHAV CHADHA distress, especially in rural areas and bring has to be getting the consumption cycle a commitment to lowering cost of capital, weakness in demand and constrained while not a reform, was needed to reduce
AAP about some revival in those markets. going, which has been on a pause mode the government will now focus on credit availability. A post-election seasonal dependence on cash. But now, the focus
CONSTITUENCY: The Centre should look at reducing for a few months, supposedly because of injecting liquidity. Land and labour growth uptick is likely, but addressing the should be on implementing reforms such
South Delhi corporate tax rates. They had announced the elections. Stimulus of government reforms, and digitisation are also key credit market pressures and tight liquidity as land, labour and agricultural reforms.
this earlier, but it was done only for small spending will be required and I hope the initiatives the government could focus on. should be top the government’s and RBI’s The Centre hasn’t moved strongly in
OPPONENT: companies, not the large ones. next Budget will focus on this. As global trade conflicts intensify, the agenda. Given the current CPI (consumer these, and I believe priorities have to
Ramesh Bidhuri, BJP We all know that Indian corporate tax Moving beyond the short term, one of government must seize the opportunity to price index) inflation, there is room for the change during the second term. The thrust
MARGIN: rates are the highest in the world. I think the initiatives that got slightly on the back invite multinationals to set up base here, monetary policy committee to ease rates, on privatisation also has to grow. Further,
367,043 votes this can be looked into more closely, and
also addressed immediately. As soon as
burner was ‘Make in India’. If we want a
trillion-dollar manufacturing economy, a
boosting job creation. The verdict clearly
vindicates the government’s stance of
but injecting liquidity is equally crucial.
The market will hope the track record
the government has to address the issue
of liquidity, increase infrastructure
the government takes action on lot more has to be done for making Indian driving growth through investments, on controlling inflation continues. Policy spending, improve credit offtake, and
improving GDP growth as well as kicking manufacturing more competitive. instead of handouts. This means road needs to target better balance between simplify direct tax laws. All this will create
off further reforms, private sector One of the biggest long-term concern construction, infrastructure development, consumption aspirations and financial jobs, as well as improve sentiment and
investment will follow. I don’t think it will has to be job creation and therefore housing, and projects like ‘Smart Cities’ savings of the Indian household. This will spending power. Private sector will set up
come with a lag if the government is industries that generate jobs must get will dominate the new government’s enhance macro-economic stability, while plants and increase manufacturing
committed to reviving growth. higher priority. decision-making process. creating room for investment revival. capacity only if consumption grows.

KANHAIYA KUMAR

India Inc bets big on economic revival under NDA 2.0

CPI
CONSTITUENCY:
Begusarai
OPPONENT: BS REPORTERS
Giriraj Singh, BJP Mumbai, 23 May
MARGIN:
A decisive mandate for the National
422,217 votes Democratic Alliance (NDA) on Thursday
has raised expectations of a higher pace of
economic reforms. Coming a day after the
United Nations (UN) lowered its FY20 gross
domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for
India, corporate leaders said a stable
government at the Centre will help boost
infrastructure spend, address agricultural
distress, and encouraging employment.
SHEILA DIKSHIT “To me, it is very simple — the people of
INC this country want Narendra Modi to
continue his job of restructuring the Indian
CONSTITUENCY: economy, as well as the governance
North East Delhi structure, and lead the country on to a high
OPPONENT: Manoj sustained growth path,” said RC Bhargava,
Tiwari, BJP chairman of Maruti Suzuki India.
MARGIN: Anil Agarwal, chairman of Vedanta, said
global trade and ushering in more tax-
friendly laws is important,” he said.
Kiran Majumdar Shaw, chairman of
Biocon, said the economic engine requires
revving up with bolder reforms and the
implementation of a simpler GST with
minimal slabs to boost sagging businesses
and revive consumer spending. “ The agri-
rural economy needs urgent attention and
farmer producers’ organisations must be
the focus,” she added.
Sunil Bharti Mittal, founder and
chairman of Bharti Enterprises, said a
strong and stable government would be
well-placed to give the reform agenda a
push. “This is needed to give an impetus to
investor confidence, given the current state
of the global economy,” he said.
The UN World Economic Situation and
Prospectsreport, released on Wednesday,
said India was in line with the global trend
exports. The trend prompted the UN to
lower its FY20 GDP growth forecast (for
India) to 7.1 per cent from 7.5 per cent.
Consumer-facing businesses in categories
such as staples and discretionary are
already seeing their slowest growth in six
quarters, impacting earnings.
Rashesh Shah, chairman and chief
executive officer of Edelweiss Group, said:
“A majority mandate will help to build on
some hard reforms and address some of the
challenges upfront. The current liquidity
tightness in the markets has to ease, and
there is a need as well as an opportunity to
get both risk appetite and growth back.”
Suresh Narayanan, chairman and
managing director of Nestle India, said the
new government would have to focus on
rural areas in its bid to revive growth. “With
inflationary pressures growing and a
forecast of a below-normal monsoon this
partner at AZB Partners, said it was vital to
re-look at pain points to ensure larger
foreign direct investment into the country.
“The government may need to open up
more sectors to FDI and look at data
localisation and e-commerce sensibly.
Transparency and better ease of doing
business would be great,” she said.
Niranjan Hiranandani, managing
director of the Hiranandani group, said real
estate developers were looking at more
structural reforms. “We are hopeful the
government will address the liquidity crisis
and rationalise taxes by subsuming stamp
duty under the GST,” he said.
Venu Srinivasan, chairman of TVS
Motor, said transport majors were hoping
to see consumer lending make its way back,
given that sales are dependent on it. “We
would like to see the Reserve Bank of India
relax the cash reserve ratio, putting some
of Pharmaceutical Producers of India, said
that healthcare challenges needed to be
addressed urgently. “The first is increasing
public spending on healthcare. Second,
policy support is necessary to address
healthcare financing, including
encouraging innovative new models such
as social impact bonds. Third, policy
support for significantly improving the
quality of our healthcare infrastructure is
crucial, from primary health care centres
through district hospitals and tertiary care
centres,” he said.
SpiceJet chairman and managing
director Ajay Singh said structural
challenges in the aviation sector need to be
addressed quickly for Indian carriers to
become global leaders.
Shally Seth Mohile, Sohini Das, Aneesh Phadnis,
Dev Chatterjee, Pavan Lall, Aditi Divekar,

366,102 votes there is a need for simplification of policies

and tackling critical issues such as job
* Till 11 pm creation. “Strengthening India’s position in
in terms of a broad-based economic
slowdown, led by lower consumption
year, giving impetus to the income of rural
households is the need of the hour,” he said.
money into banks and non-banking
financial companies.”
Raghavendra Kamath, T E Narasimhan,
Arnab Dutta, Megha Manchanda, Jyoti Mukul
demand, industrial production and Zia Mody, founder and managing A Vaidheesh, president of Organisation and Viveat Pinto contributed to this story

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>
MUMBAI | FRIDAY, 24 MAY 2019 BRAND WORLD 11

Brands join the frenzy, step

gingerly around poll politics
Ad rates soar on television, Indian elections top the trend lists on social media,
even as brands step in with celebratory messages
TOP 5 NEWS CHANNELS
Channels Impressions
(000s) sum
HINDI
Aaj Tak 141,950
India TV 119,927
Republic Bharat 113,526
News18 India 110,785
ABP News 1002,11
ENGLISH
Republic TV 613
URVI MALVANIA
Mumbai, 23 May DD India 540
Times Now 452

O
n a day that had
nearly every Indian
glued to a screen,
advertisers made hay. Brands
stepped in for a slice of the
action with cheeky celebrato-
ry messages, careful to com-
pliment the voter without
raising a toast for the victor
while television channels, dig-
ital news portals and social
media timeliness boiled over
in cacophonous frenzy.
Experts said that this is the
event to beat all events in the
country and no advertiser
wants to be left behind. At the
same time, they want to step
carefully around party align-
ments, without antagonising
a single consumer.
“Big brands with national
presence and deep pockets
will look at events like elec-
tions and the counting day
with keen interest. The general
elections result in the nation
engaging in one conversation,
which then they try and lever-
age for their advertising goals,”
says Saurabh Uboweja, CEO
Brands of Desire.
Over the past month-and-
a-half through the nine phases
of the election, a large number
of brands such as KFC,
Zomato, McDonald’s,
Samsonite, Benetton have
Top L to R: Amul and SpiceJet congratulated the
PM; (Bottom L to R) Kingfisher and IndiGo used
humour to convey an inclusive message
waded into the electoral arena
using humour to get their
messages across. As the D-day
drew closer, more and more
citizens were drawn deeper
into conversations around
politics, providing what
experts say, the best opportu-
nity for brands to strike.
On social media it led to
trending Twitter hashtags and
on television, increased view-
ers. In April for example, the
viewership on news channels
saw a 60 per cent growth year
on year, a trend which contin-
ued into the month of May.
And on counting day, news
channels were estimated to
have clocked in numbers sur-
passing that of the Indian
Premier League finals.
According to one media plan-
ner, the average rates
(throughout the day) on a typ-
ical Thursday would be in the
rate of ~3000 to ~7000.
However on May 23, rates
were in the range of ~2.5-3
lakh, he said.
Avinash Pandey, CEO, ABP
News Network says, “Chan-
nels are selling just one third
of the inventory on election
day since the focus is on pro-
viding as much in-depth cov-
erage as possible. Moreover,
with a fairly decisive result,
viewership is expected to
trickle over into the weekend
since there may be some com-
munication from PM Modi.”
With the time available for
ads going down, brands
sought out innovative ways to
make their presence felt. On
ticker boards flashing at the
bottom of the screen, labels on
state-wise breakdowns of elec-
toral results and of course via
ads on social media. The rates
for a flashing band on the
channels was going for
around one lakh rupees, said
industry sources.
On television, brands took
a fairly routine form of mes-
saging, keeping it simple and
India Today TV 323
CNN News18 316
Hindi : HSM (U+R) : NCCS All : 15+
Individuals
English : All India (U+R) : NCCS AB :
Males 22+ Individuals
Week: May 11-17
straightforward with just a
name being flashed or run-
ning an old commercial.
However on social media,
many brands took a humor-
ous swipe at the results. The
airline IndiGo tweeted a photo
in its trademark blue back-
ground and the copy read,
“We have seats for everyone”.
SpiceJet didn’t couch its mes-
sage, congratulating the Prime
Minister and declaring that it
was time for ‘Saffron on the
ground, red in the sky’.
Uboweja says that brands
ought to be cautious at such
times, more than what they
were when Article 377 was
struck down or the World Cup
final is played. “When it
comes to a political event,
especially the general assem-
bly elections, brands have to
be very careful. They could
end up alienating a part of the
consumer base, employees or
commercial partners other-
wise,” he adds.

> FROM PAGE 1

Modi tsunami... Congress government in

In a statement, the Rashtriya
Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS),
the ideological parent of the
BJP, said the election was
between two “ideas of Bharat”,
one that believes in its
“ancient spiritualism based on
integral, holistic and all-inclu-
sive worldview” versus the un-
Indian worldview of looking at
society through the prism of
identities and exclusion.
At the celebrations, BJP
chief Amit Shah introduced
Modi as one of the most pow-
erful leaders of the world.
Congratulatory messages
poured from leaders across the
world, including from Chinese
President Xi Jinping, Japanese
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe,
Russian President Vladimir
Putin and Pakistan Prime
Minister Imran Khan. The PM
is set to visit Bishkek to attend
the Shanghai Cooperation
Organisation summit in mid-
June, when he is set to meet
Xi and Khan.
The PM’s immediate chal-
lenge would be to revive both
consumption and investment
in the economy. There would
also short- as well as long-term
ramifications of the BJP’s win.
The Janata Dal (Secular)-
Karnataka could face trouble,
as could the Congress’ Madhya
Pradesh government, which
has a slim majority in the
state’s Assembly.
In his speech, while Shah
congratulated Odisha Chief
Minister Naveen Patnaik and
Andhra Pradesh’s YSR Cong-
ress Party on their respective
wins in the Assembly polls in
the two states, he warned that
the BJP would soon conquer
West Bengal. While the BJP
now has a brute majority of its
own in the Lok Sabha, it still
needs the support of its allies
in the Rajya Sabha to get key
bills passed. The BJP can hope
to have numbers that are more
comfortable in the Rajya
Sabha by 2022 to push
through, with the help of its
allies, constitution amend-
ment bills, which require pas-
sage by two-thirds of the mem-
bers of the two Houses.
In its second term, the BJP
could also pursue with more
intent its core agenda of abol-
ishing Article 370 of the
Constitution, which gives
Jammu and Kashmir special
status, constructing a Ram
temple in Ayodhya, and
implementing a uniform civil
code. The situation in Jammu
and Kashmir remains a chal-
lenge for the new Modi gov-
ernment. The opposition to
the BJP could come from the
parties in southern Indian
states. The BJP has now em-
erged a challenger to K Chan-
drasekhar Rao-led Telangana
Rashtra Samiti and Dravida
Munnetra Kazhagam has
swept the polls in Tamil Nadu.
In his speech at the BJP
headquarters in front of sup-
porters unfazed by the drizzle,
the PM said the BJP respected
India’s constitution and feder-
alism, but was deeply commit-
ted to its ideological tenets. He
likened the electoral battle to
that of Mahabharata, and
thanked the people for their
support to him, who is a sim-
ple fakir, or ascetic.
Amid cries of ‘Bharat mata
ki jai’, Modi said the BJP’s
inspiration was its commit-
ment to nationalism, but also
said the electoral triumph
belonged to the poor, who
have benefited from his gov-
ernment’s social welfare
schemes.
He renewed his promise to
provide housing to all by 2022.
The PM said this was a rare
election where inflation and
corruption were not electoral
planks. He said the electoral
verdict of 2019 had dealt a
blow to those who exploited
caste for electoral benefits.
“Now, there are only two castes
— one of the poor, and the oth-
er of those who can help uplift
those who are in poverty,” he
said.
Shah may...
Textiles Minister Smriti Irani,
who proved to be a giant-killer
by defeating Congress Presi-
dent Rahul Gandhi from the
Amethi seat, could be elevated
too. The PM and Shah would
also find it difficult to ignore
the claims of such leaders as V
K Singh, who has won his seat
by a huge margin from
Ghaziabad. Senior leader Ravi
Shankar Prasad has also
debuted in the Lok Sabha after
years spent in the Rajya Sabha.
The Modi government
would need to factor in the
upcoming Assembly polls in
Maharashtra, Haryana and
Jharkhand and give MPs from
these states representation in
the council of ministers. Party
sources said some ministries,
particularly the agriculture
ministry, could see a change.
Some of the younger MPs
could also be inducted in the
council of ministers.

> BS SUDOKU # 2751 Change of guard: #Chowkidaar

to make way for new campaign
NEHA ALAWADHI &
KARAN CHOUDHURY
New Delhi/Bengaluru, 23 May
It seems chowkidaar would not be
guarding BJP’s interest on the back
of which it won its massive mandate.
The tagline has been dropped from
the Twitter handle of the PM. And
other leaders, sources said, might fol-
low suit.
“The time has come to take the
chowkidaar spirit to the next level.
The word chowkidaar goes from my
Twitter name but it remains an
integral part of me. Urging you all
SOLUTION TO #2750 Very easy to do the same too!” Modi tweeted
« on Thursday evening.
Solution According to sources in Bharatiya
Janata Party, the party is going to coin
tomorrow
a new term that would replace
HOW TO PLAY chowkidaar. This term would portray
Fill in the grid so how the government would function
that every row, over the next five years. “The people
every column and of India became chowkidaars and
every 3x3 box rendered great service to the nation.
contains the Chowkidaar has become a powerful
digits 1 to 9 symbol to safeguard India from the
evils of casteism, communalism, cor-
ruption and cronyism,” the PM said
in another tweet.
A call on a new campaign would
be taken soon. The social media
managers of the party, in the mean-
time, are working on the next big
campaign slogan and tagline. “The
tagline and the campaign would
focus on good governance and what
the government plans to do for the
people. But those things are yet to
be finalised. Everyone in the lead-
ership has been told to stay put for
the next big thing,” a source said.
According to sources, Modi will
launch the new campaign in the
months to come.
On March 15, BJP launched its
‘Main bhi Chowkidaar’ campaign,
with the Prime Minister, several
Cabinet ministers and BJP supporters
putting ‘Chowkidar’ or watchman
before their name on Twitter. The
campaign resonated with the voter
base, with the ruling party even cre-
ating a radio song around the theme
during their election campaign.
More on business-standard.com

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12 ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
>
MUMBAI | FRIDAY 24 MAY 2019

> CHINESE WHISPERS

Chinks in the armour
Public facing systems around the world must tighten security and
put together disaster recovery plans
glomeration of 2.8 million. On May 7,
hackers took control of municipal com-
puter systems. They seized control of
10,000-odd municipal computers and
encrypted access to the servers.
Hence, government email systems
are down, payments to the city depart-
ments can’t be made except by cash,
real estate transactions, birth and death
certificates, and so on, can’t be pro-
cessed. The city has been forced to
QUANTUM LEAP resort to paper transactions to keep
municipal services running.
DEVANGSHU DATTA The hackers demanded 13 bitcoin —
worth roughly $100,000 — to give the
city access via a digital key that will
sive loss as well.
This is the 20th detected cyber-ran-
som attack on municipal systems in the
US alone, in 2019. Baltimore was hit ear-
lier, in March 2018 by an attack, which
knocked the 911 emergency responses
offline for a day. That same month,
Atlanta, Georgia, suffered losses of $17
million and took several months to
recover from a cyber-attack.
The concept is simple. The hackers
enter a network, and encrypt data on it.
They may use various means to gain
access, and various types of programmes
to do this. Then, they ask for money
(payable in bitcoin, or some other cryp-
recovery plan in place, with full backups,
it may be possible to ignore the cyber-
attack. But that in itself costs money.
Initially, cyber ransom attacks
focussed on businesses and any busi-
ness is of course, still at risk. But hitting
a municipality, or some other public ser-
vice, has become much more popular.
There are several reasons while munic-
ipalities are tempting and soft targets.
Businesses often have high security
and backups in place. Municipal sys-
tems are, by definition, designed to
interface with the public and usually
have lower security. They are often
accessible from thousands of machines
used by under-trained clerical staff.
Gaining access is easier. It’s hugely
politically embarrassing for a munici-
pal system providing critical services,
to be knocked offline. This makes pay-
offs more likely.
Encrypting is a relatively easy task.
It is gaining access that’s difficult.
impossible to decrypt data locked up
with a well-designed encryption pro-
gramme.
Baltimore has been hit by
“RobbinHood”, which encrypts servers
running a system and require a digital
key to access the servers. RobbinHood
uses a combination of public and private
keys to do the encryption. The user
receives a message with details of how
to contact hackers for payment, and
decryption “services”. Bitcoin-style cryp-
to currencies are hard to trace and easily
converted into multiple currencies.
In Baltimore’s case, the hackers
threatened to escalate the demand by
$10,000 for every additional day and
also claimed data would be unrecover-
able after 10 days. That deadline has
long passed. The city will have to
rebuild networks and figure out how
malware was introduced.
There’s a lesson here for municipal-
ities around the world. Not only must
DMDK builds muscle
Actor-turned-politician Vijayakanth’s
party, Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam
(DMDK), an ally of the National Democratic
Alliance, might have missed the mark this
election, but it has grabbed the No 2 spot in
another ranking. A report prepared by the
Association for Democratic Reforms on
donations received by 48 regional political
parties during FY18 shows the party’s
income during the financial year has grown
93 per cent, just behind the YSR-Congress’
95 per cent. It has overtaken the donation
growth of the DMK (40 per cent). The same
survey shows 14 regional parties registered
a decline in overall donations received.
These include Goa's Maharashtrawadi
Gomantak Party, the Shiv Sena and the
Rashtriya Janata Dal. Tamil Nadu's ruling
party All India Anna Dravida Munnetra

B
altimore in Maryland, USA, is
becoming a test case for cyber-
ransom. The Baltimore munici-
pality has a population of about 600,000
and it’s the hub of a metropolitan con-
unlock three key servers. Since the
municipality has refused to pay on
principle, it will take millions to get sys-
tems up and running again and of
course, the disruption has caused mas-
tocurrency) to decrypt the network.
The victim must take a call on the
costs of reloading from scratch, versus
paying up, (assuming the attacker will
decrypt the data). If there’s a disaster
Encryption utilities often come pre-
loaded with modern operating systems,
for the legitimate user’s security and
privacy. It’s also possible to create mal-
ware that does the job. It may be plain
security be tightened. Disaster recovery
plans must be introduced as well, as a
contingency measure. Public facing
systems, accessed by millions, will
inevitably have gaps in security.
Kazhagam did not declare the donations it
received this fiscal year.
No room for fakes
The Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) has
just made the job a bit more difficult for
corporate boards. It has mandated that

Modi reigns supreme. This is his India now every corporate director must have his
photograph clicked standing next to a
signage that mentions the name of the
company with its address. The signage, in
turn, should be on an outside wall of the

Now, economy awaits

govern like one. The members
of parliament that actually got
elected won’t count for much
anyway, given how heavily their
campaign leaned on Modi’s
charisma. As for the party and
its ideology, the BJP’s identifi-
cation with Modi is now com-
plete. He has a clear five-year
runaway to shape the national
agenda, and his ministers will
ANDY MUKHERJEE have to back him to the hilt.
for signs of repair or further
degradation.
Investors will want to know
if Modi still has an appetite for
arbitrary action, such as his
overnight ban on 86 per cent of
the country’s cash. The state of
the economy offers zero scope
for more ill-conceived experi-
mentation. Consumption is
slowing because of poor wage
growth in villages and
unfavourable prices of
food commodities.
This election was fought and won over identity — the identity
of the country and the identity of Indians
not until the 1990s did the party
enter a permanent decline.
Modi’s successive victories
mark another era of Indian poli-
tics. No other political chieftains
are holding the balance of power;
only Modi matters. Back in the
days of one-party rule, a syco-
phantic Congress politician said
of his leader: Indira is India. That
was hyperbole. But no politician
MIHIR SHARMA since Indira Gandhi has had as
powerful a claim to be identified
with India’s conception of itself
whelming number of these 400
million voters see in him a self-
made man, one who has every
intention of asserting India’s
centrality to world affairs. More,
he appears strong and decisive,
and wishes to impose a unity
and uniformity on Indian poli-
tics. This clarity is comforting
for most of his core voters.
The India of the past saw
itself as a patchwork of compet-
ing identities, represented by the
multiple powerful satraps of the
building that houses the firm's
headquarters. These photos must then be
uploaded on the MCA website. In case a
company has more than one subsidiary, it
has to click separate photos for each
subsidiary and upload them on the
website. This move, say MCA officials, is
aimed to weed out shell companies. They
complain they have often found “several
thousands of companies” operating from
a single room.
Dual celebration

I A
f Narendra Modi’s 2014
popular mandate was
India’s biggest in three
decades, his 2019 re-election is
an even bigger feat.
It’s a remarkable demonstra-
tion of voters’ faith in Modi’s
carefully crafted strongman
image. What he has pulled off
in the world’s biggest democra-
cy could give some pointers
even to the United States
President Donald Trump. That
the Indian leader has cruised to
victory amid agrarian distress,
youth unemployment, high
income inequality, anemic
growth, a broken financial sys-
tem and the promise of a basic
income for 50 million of the
country’s poorest families by
the Opposition Congress Party,
makes the win all the more
momentous.
In a UK-style parliamentary
democracy, people voted for
Modi as though he was their de
facto president. He may well
Private investment is fter a long and arduous as Modi now does. coalition era and by the many
expected only in select election, with months of How has he earned that claim? factions within the umbrella tra-
areas like road con- campaigning and voting Multiple explanations for the dition of the Congress prior to
struction, and not in spread over seven phases, India’s BJP’s victory have already been that. The BJP, under Modi, per-
things like power and 879 million voters have spoken. trotted out: The organisational mits no such balancing. India is
telecom. Shadow And, if not with one voice, then strength of the party, its vast strong if it is united, Modi’s vot-
lenders are retreating, close to it. The Bharatiya Janata advantages in money and ers feel, and unity requires the
amplifying a funding Party of Prime Minister resources, the covert and overt welding of these multiple iden-
crunch for India Inc. Narendra Modi has been handed backing of supposedly indepen- tities into a single one.
Now that the elec- another historic mandate. dent institutions — all hallmarks The BJP’s electoral logic has BSE, formerly Bombay Stock Exchange,
tions are out of the way, Modi’s 2014 victory was of democratic strongmen globally. long been incredibly simple: announced a cake-cutting ceremony on
Shiv Sena supporters in Thane celebrate the government’s own already record-setting — the first Others will point to the weakness Over four-fifths of India is Hindu Thursday after Sensex topped 40,000 in
NDA’s lead during the counting of votes budget deficits will time a single party had attained of the Opposition and its crisis of and the BJP is the party that best opening trade after early trends made it
need more honest a parliamentary majority in three leadership, or to Modi’s reputation represents Hindu interests. If clear that Prime Minister Narendra Modi
Analysts will have many accounting. Big-ticket privati- decades. To win once at that scale for incorruptibility, his muscular most Hindus vote for them out was set for a landslide victory. The
questions after this week’s sation, a missed opportunity of was astounding, a black swan foreign policy and the popularity of religious solidarity rather than Sensex, however, failed to close above
euphoria in stock markets has Modi’s first term, will need a event. To win twice means that of some of his welfare schemes. on economic, class or caste inter- 40,000 amid profit-taking and ended
calmed down. For one thing, determined push. Decimation Indian politics, and India itself, All these, of course, are factors. ests, then the BJP will win. below 39,000. The exchange routinely
the composition of the new eco- of a credible opposition in par- has changed beyond recognition. But they didn’t determine this The truth is that this is celebrates Sensex milestones; however,
nomics team, a particularly liament opens up the possibility For the first decades after inde- election. This election was increasingly what Modi and the it typically considers the index’s closing
weak point of the Modi admin- of muscular action minus the pendence, India was a democracy fought and won over identity — party have achieved. Their tri- levels. The sharp fall in the market at
istration’s first five years, will be usual constraints of a noisy but nevertheless a one-party state. the identity of India and the umph isn’t merely a product of day's end didn’t deter the exchange
keenly awaited. Institutions democracy. The next five years The Indian National Congress identity of Indians. political management. It is a from going ahead with the cake-cutting
such as the central bank and the will determine to what extent that spearheaded the indepen- Modi is the perfect represen- rhetorical and ideological bat- ceremony, which seemed more like a
statistics department, which Modi uses the policy space, and dence movement dominated tative for the young, aspira- tle, a culture war, which they victory celebration for the PM, with
have seen their independence what he makes of it. most states and had a strangle- tional, majoritarian, impatient have won. many present showing up in “Namo
and credibility come under hold on power in New Delhi. It Indians who have put him into Again” t-shirts.
attack, will also be watched – © 2019 Bloomberg was voted out once in 1977. Still, office twice now. An over- © 2019 Bloomberg

INSIGHT

Dilemmas of community participation may be safer in the hands of experts in

A return to community norms and cultural visions, without encouraging exclusivity and
barriers, is an extremely delicate task, says the author in the concluding part of a series
raising money from inside those groups
and police any potential breaches main-
ly internally.
On the other hand, for the individ-
ual members of such groups the bene-
fits of community bonds come with a
palpable cost. The price of social help
and insurance is the group’s authority
over individual members’ freedoms.
Traditional extended families or kin-
ship groups can be quite authoritarian
PRANAB BARDHAN in their treatment particularly of
younger and female members. The lat-
ter, for example, have to accept many
limits on competition and on the indi-
vidual’s autonomy of desire and
needs) and egalitarianism.
Another such conflict arises in the
context of two different aspects of lib-
eral democracy — the “procedural”
and the “participatory” aspects. The
former has to do with due process and
respect for minority rights which
majoritarian communities often tend
to ride roughshod over. The latter in
their impatience with institutional
rules and procedures are often com-
plicit in their leaders’ illiberal under-
economic literature on fiscal federalism
that people can ‘vote with their feet’ in
the face of different bundles of tax and
public expenditure in different areas
does not quite apply. In any case resi-
dents of rural communities of poor coun-
tries are often face-to-face, and social
norms sharply distinguish ‘outsiders’
from ‘insiders’ especially with respect to
entitlement to community services.
The recent experience of community
participation in developing countries
has also shown only limited gains in
many areas, particularly in those with
the hospital in the nearby town (provid-
ed by the market or the state). On an
administrative level providing for street
cleaning or garbage collection may be
easy to organise for the municipal
authority, but for power generation and
transmission, bulk supply of clean
water and public sanitation or develop-
ing school curriculum or digital con-
nectivity it will often need outside help
and expertise (from the upper levels of
the state and the market).
Beyond administrative accountabil-
ity to the grassroots the case for commu-
nity, however, ultimately depends on the
salience of common cultural bonds and
norms for a healthy liberal society. The
cultural gulf here between the blue-col-
lar workers and the liberal professional
munities. While fulminating against
supra-national organisations and regu-
lations, they have, if anything, cen-
tralised power at the national level.
Paradoxically, in such attempts to
strengthen the nation-state the right-
wing populists are sometimes in the
uncomfortable/unwitting company of
state socialists and other anti-globalists
on the left, and ideologically pitted
against them are the motley bunch of
anarcho-communitarians, small-is-
beautiful Gandhian thinkers, and
Hayekian libertarians, as well as pro-
global separatists (like those in
Catalonia or Scotland).
Take this larger imagined political
community of the nation. Citizens may
legitimately feel pride in their national
autonomy and cultural history, but one

F
rom the point of view of a liberal
democracy there is a dilemma in
social insurance against risks and
financial crunch at the community level.
On the one hand, kinship groups in tra-
ditional communities often provide to
their members scarce credit as well as
emotional support at times of emergency
need, and help in small loans for regular
business or job referrals for migrating
members and insure against idiosyncratic
risks — these useful functions and recip-
rocal obligations make such group ties
quite resilient (and help some ethnic busi-
ness groups to succeed in conditions of
scarcity of entrepreneurial opportunities
and capital).
Group obligations can serve even
better than market or government con-
tracts, since the latter ultimately
depend for contract enforcement on
costly third-party (legal-juridical) veri-
fication and arbitration, whereas in the
case of within-group arrangements
breaches are more easily observable and
negotiable within the group. There are
many stories of how Chinese lineage-
based business families negotiate bil-
lions of dollars’ worth of real estate deals
in Hong Kong (or how caste-based
Gujarati migrant families have captured
the motel business in large parts of the
US) without any formal contracts for
restrictions on their choice of work
associates and marriage partners, sanc-
tions on departures from due deference
to the aged leaders, and injunctions on
sharing the benefits from individual
efforts and innovations.
Take the case of old age support. In
traditional communities children have
the social obligation to look after their
parents in their old age. The commu-
nity keeps a watchful eye that as the
children grow up they do not stray too
far out of community controls. A lib-
eral may actually prefer the state and
market alternatives (social security
plus financial market products like
annuities) to the community-provided
support system obligating children.
More generally, in such societies even
when democratic, group rights often
take precedence over individual rights:
your freedom of expression can be
restricted if some group claims offence
at your expression or speech. As liber-
alism emphasises individual rights,
these may sometimes violate commu-
nity norms — in this sense ‘liberty’
and ‘fraternity’ may be in serious con-
flict. One can see this conflict in com-
plex thinkers like Gandhi, who as an
ardent champion of the local commu-
nity was less warm to liberalism (par-
ticularly if it comes without serious
mining of the institutional insulation
or independence of the judiciary,
police and the civil service particularly
in developing countries where these
institutions are already weak. The
emphasis is on winning elections
through majoritarian mobilisation.
Of course, the enthusiasts for partic-
ipatory politics often complain about the
failures of representative democracy, as
the representatives tend to come to them
only at election time and meanwhile del-
egate vital issues to the unelected elite
experts or an insulated technocracy. If
both the procedural and participatory
aspects of liberal democracy are to be
given their due weight, one clearly has
to strike a balance between the need for
evidence- and knowledge-based gover-
nance indispensable in many complex
situations and the need for frequent and
meaningful checks ensuring account-
ability to the people. In poor countries
even when there are vigorous local gov-
ernments, one financial problem for
local accountability is that many local
areas are too poor to have elastic sources
of revenue. So even if they have some
political power it is limited by their
dependence on money coming from
above. Accountability is thus separated
from financial responsibility. In such a
context the standard presumption of the
entrenched inequality. Lending institu-
tions like the World Bank have long
emphasised participatory programs like
Community-Driven Development in
public goods projects. While several
such programmes have delivered mod-
erately successfully to the poor, it is not
always clear that in the process the local
institutional set-ups deficient in
empowerment of the poor have mea-
surably or durably changed. Yet there
is now scattered evidence of local delib-
erative democracy sprouting in differ-
ent parts of the world, and showing
results, if not always in terms of policy
outcome, at least in the process of
claims to dignity and discursive
demands for accountability — the evi-
dence is not just from the town halls of
rich countries or participatory budget-
ing in progressive Brazilian cities, but
even from high-inequality low-literacy
villages of India (as a recent book, Oral
Democracy, by P Sanyal and V Rao
shows for a fairly large sample of village
assemblies in south India).
On expertise, while there are issues
where local expertise or indigenous
knowledge is enough, this is clearly not
the case always. When someone in the
village is seriously ill the community
leaders may send for the traditional
healers in the neighbourhood, but you
elite has become particularly wide in
recent years. Labour organisations,
instead of serving only as narrow wage-
bargaining platforms or lobbies, can play
a special role here in bridging this gulf.
They may take an active role in the local
cultural life, involving the neighbour-
hood community and religious organi-
sations, as they used to do in some
European and Latin American countries,
and thus tamed and transcended some
of the nativist passions.
A return to community norms and
cultural visions, without encouraging
exclusivity and barriers is, of course, an
extremely delicate task. Success in this
will vary from one area to another, often
depending on organisations and lead-
ers. It is often the case that dislocations
due to market or technological disrup-
tions and the consequent job-related
despair and sense of insecurity for those
who find it difficult to adapt and adjust
to the changes make them turn to faith-
or identity-based communities for
solace or anchor and alternative sources
of pride, which are sometimes not very
inclusive. The populist demagogues in
different parts of the world who have
rallied communities for the cause of
‘taking back control’, apart from being
rabidly exclusivist, have, however,
rarely devolved power to the local com-
has to be careful that such pride does not
derive its oxygen from the majoritarian
ethnicity, marginalising minorities or
demonising immigrants. One can try to
advocate a kind of “civic nationalism,”
which combines pride in one’s cultural
distinctiveness (and maybe local soccer
teams) without giving up on some
shared universal humanitarian values,
including tolerance for diversity (as evi-
dent sometimes in the composition of
those soccer teams).
The state, the market, and the com-
munity are all robust coordination
mechanisms, each important in its
own context in potentially fortifying
liberal democracy and each in many
ways complementary with the others,
but one has to remain vigilant that
their excesses or dysfunctionalities do
not undermine the foundations of a
liberal society.
(Concluded)
(The article was first published in the
international blog 3 Quarks Daily)
The author is professor of Graduate School
at University of California, Berkeley. His
most recent two books are Awakening
Giants, Feet of Clay: Assessing the Economic
Rise of China and India; & Globalisation,
Democracy and Corruption: An Indian
Perspective

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 https://t.me/TheHindu_Zone_official

>
OPINION 13
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ILLUSTRATION: BINAY SINHA

Volume XXIII Number 201
MUMBAI | FRIDAY, 24 MAY 2019

High-fives for Mr Modi

The question is what Mr Modi has learnt from his first term, and
whether that will make him more reformist in the second

T
hirty years ago, the transition from a Congress-centric political system
began as Hindu qua Hindu mobilisation got under way. The quarter- BJP in Bengal. What the party has achieved in its
century that followed was an interregnum that saw the birth of new strongholds is astonishing. It happens rarely in first-
caste-based and regional parties, and a succession of coalition gov- past-the-post systems like ours and the one in the
United Kingdom that the winning party wins 50 per
ernments. Now the transition is complete, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
cent of the vote. Especially rarely in multi-party
virtually embedded in the northern heartland and in the western states, and democracies like ours where it is not normal for one

The ‘pro-incumbency’
spreading its reach east and south to become a truly national party. Prime force to overwhelm all others. A 50 per cent vote-
Minister Narendra Modi and party president Amit Shah have formed an impres- share at the local level is irresistible. Meaning it can-
sive team, and should congratulate themselves on a comprehensive victory that not be resisted.
carries with it more-than-usual significance. That is what the BJP has delivered in critical
states including, apparently and quite amazingly,

factor
Few had thought it possible during the campaigning that the BJP would
Uttar Pradesh. Even if it doesn’t quite touch that
increase its vote share as well as seats tally. Many believed that the party’s 2014 number, it doesn’t matter because it has improved
victory, emphatic as it was, was a fluke since a fragmented Opposition gave the on a base of over 40 per cent. Incredible.
BJP a single-party majority on the back of just 31 per cent of the vote. The Rahul Gandhi will be held accountable for the
party’s string of setbacks in recent Assembly polls and by-elections, plus some The election results are anything but a failure of the Opposition loss of the Congress and that is as it should be.
However, it is unclear if he is to blame. All the things
coalescing of Opposition parties, had led them to conclude that 2019 would see

W
hat a terrific election this has been. The first Uttar Pradesh became the critical state early on, that he was previously faulted for — taking it easy,
some slippage in the BJP’s performance. As it has turned out, the combination
in 50 years that returned a government with and it was here that we saw the Opposition swallow not being aggressive enough, going off on holidays,
of high-touch government programmes, demonstrative leadership, effective two consecutive majorities. This is what the its pride and align against the ruling party. It would not warming up to the Opposition — he addressed
oratory that drilled home key themes, overwhelming financial muscle and word mandate means. It means endorsement and have been difficult to get two parties as the Bahujan all of those things. We could say that he didn’t deliver
mobilisation of ground troops has worked seamlessly to deliver even better acceptance and ratification from the voter of the agen- Samaj Party and the Samajwadi Party to align. They and that is a fact. But he tried what he could.
results than before, while blunting the Opposition’s attacks on economic under- da you lay out and the achievements you boast of. settled the question of who would be the bigger part- For now, we must admire the craft and the abili-
performance and corruption. The last person to achieve two consecutive ner and divided the 80 seats. ties of Modi, easily the most talented politician of
majorities was Indira Gandhi and The difficulties at the level of our generation.
Mr Modi’s role has of course been pivotal. This is manifest in the big difference
this was five decades ago. It shows the worker and the candidate can The BJP has held two constituencies for a long
in voting for Parliament and Assembly — not just in the four states where the how totally dominant Narendra only be imagined. For the Dalit of time (it had about a quarter of the national vote
party performed sub-optimally a few months ago in Assembly elections, and Modi has been in the contempo- northern India, oppression comes under Atal Bihari Vajpayee). The first is the com-
where it has performed so impressively now, but also in Odisha, where Assembly rary politics of India. He was care- not from the Brahmin or the munities that align themselves with the party locally.
and Parliament elections were held simultaneously. Voters are willing to look at ful to say through the campaign Baniya but the Other Backward And so the Patels in Gujarat, the Lingayats in
alternatives when it comes to state Assemblies, but vote more for the BJP when that he was witnessing “pro-incum- Classes that they deal with in their Karnataka and so on. These are communities that
bency ” and that he would again daily lives. stay no matter who leads the party.
they look for national leadership. We are back to the overarching presence of a win a majority. He has done that. For them, to get together and The second constituency is that of Hindutva and
dominant political figure with nationwide appeal, reminiscent of Indira Gandhi. This result gives him the man- fight an election shows that they those who have gravitated towards the BJP because
Indira Gandhi hard-wired a kind of unproductive state socialism into the date to pursue his ideas of trans- realised the strength of the coming of its anti-minority and especially anti-Muslim pos-
country’s thinking process, from which it is still to free itself. What will Mr forming India. We can quibble over storm and did what they could. If ture. It is likely that, for whatever reasons, which
Modi do? On the economic front, he has merely tinkered so far, while on the whether or not some of these ideas
— say in economics and national
REPLY TO ALL they have lost to a phenomenon
they are not to be blamed.
we need not go into here, they have been satisfied
with the 2014-19 era.
social and political planes he has already changed much of the country’s DNA.
security in particular — have pro- AAKAR PATEL In West Bengal, a tough and To these, Modi appears to have added a third
As he steps out triumphantly for a second innings, the majoritarian impulse duced the results they were meant fresh Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) constituency: Those of us who have accepted his
has gone from being politically incorrect to aggressively respectable, even as to, or might be the right thing to do. was held to an honourable draw by Mamata thesis of an old India, dynastic, corrupt and weak,
the Left and liberals resist ineffectively. Though no de jure institutional arrange- However, all of it stands endorsed and approved Banerjee. Honourable, that is, for the BJP. Banerjee making way for a new one that is meritocratic, clean,
ments may be immediately attempted, a long-delayed res- by our people, and overwhelmingly. We should did the best she could. Bengal is the cauldron where efficient and above all strong.
The dynastic olution of the Ramjanmabhoomi dispute is awaited, and expect that such things will be more forcefully the majoritarian ideology and the BJP have their Such numbers as this election has thrown up
illusion that the Kashmir Valley is in tense limbo. What action-reaction implemented. birth: Syama Prasad Mookerjee and all that. That need to be understood at a deep level. It will be fas-
throwing Priyanka The Opposition will be attacked for being incom- land has not seen the sort of politics that the BJP is cinating to see how the shattered opposition — the
Gandhi into the sequence awaits on these issues remains hidden in the petent and unable to put up a fight. But it is not easy capable of introducing and the churn in society that Battle of Karnal comes to mind (the combined
fray might achieve pregnant folds of the future. to see what else they could have done differently comes with it. Mughal armies were laid low by Nadir Shah) —
something has Meanwhile, Rahul Gandhi’s unconvincing leadership and what they could have done more. There will be bigger and better results for the recovers from a wound as seemingly fatal as this.
been properly of the Congress has left it where it was, as a rump, falling
exposed, most short of 10 per cent of the seats in the Lok Sabha and there-
emphatically and
fore unable once again to formally claim leadership of the
embarrassingly
at Amethi Opposition. The dynastic illusion that throwing Priyanka
Gandhi into the fray might achieve something has been
properly exposed, most emphatically and embarrassingly
Modi-Shah outwit Congress, and the rest
H
at Amethi. If anything, her induction gave more grist to the Modi mill as he ere are a dozen quick takeaways from though the devastation of the Left is opening up that Rajiv Gandhi would be aghast. Is it a good idea to lib-
hammered away at entitlement politics. It is hard to see how the Congress can me on the 2019 verdict as the trends become space. In Punjab, you see a stark truth play out that eralise these laws: Editorially, yes. But then go get your
clear: Congress usually detests: A state leader who can win votes from editorialists.
extricate itself from its predicament. It can’t survive without its dynastic lead-
by himself, even stop a wave. This makes the BJP’s 9. One highlight of our travels during the cam-
ership, and won’t prosper with it. 1. The Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress fought strategy easy: Target directly the states where the paigns over the past decade is a rising aversion of
The smaller parties feel the squeeze even more than the Congress in West with fundamentally different strategies. The BJP want- Congress is the main rival. Go, sign up regional forces the young to dynastic entitlement and elitism. From
Bengal, Odisha, Telangana, Bihar and Maharashtra. Once important entities ed to make it a national presidential-style contest. The elsewhere. Watch out for YSRCP in Andhra and KCR Gujarat to Tripura and Jammu to
like the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Nationalist Congress Party have been all Congress and its allies tried to make it 543 individual in Telangana going ahead. Naveen Patnaik in Odisha Thiruvananthapuram, one consistent view is: Nice
but decimated, and the Telugu Desam will be lucky to get a single seat in the elections. They failed. The BJP succeeded spectacularly is a deal already half done. guy, but Rahul has no experience yet. Why did he
in making it a presidential election, and with only one 6. You can blame the media with much justification. not handle a ministry and learn when his party was
House. Others, like the Trinamool Congress, the Biju Janata Dal and the Telangana
candidate: Narendra Modi. The BJP has used political power brilliantly to build in power for 10 years? Non-committed voters are
Rashtra Samithi, can feel the BJP closing the space available to them. These sin- 2. The Congress walked into the trap deeper. They or buy its own media, and to put down what remains, more brutal: What does he do to earn his living and
gle-leader or single-family parties, born mostly in the 1990s, may be an endan- didn’t bother offering even a notional alternative and or aspired to remain, objective. But, having accepted fund his lifestyle? I’d also love to be a trained diver,
gered species if the BJP continues its juggernaut journey. Already, the country is also decided to focus their attack entirely on Narendra that, what story did the Congress offer them? Even pilot, martial arts black belt. But how would I pay for
back to being a single-dominant party democracy. Indeed, a two-thirds majority Modi. It is hard to fight to your adversary’s strength. It Rahul’s big media interviews came in the last phases it? How does he? As we’ve been saying for a decade
for the BJP-led alliance is almost within reach and, given the party’s everything- can also be foolhardy if you do not have a convincing of the polls. To anybody watching this closely, it was now, and recording in my ‘Writings On The Wall’
message. Of the one-and-a-half planks the Congress evident that the Congress was blundering into delusion series, India is seeing the rise of a generation of post-
goes approach to buying support, could well be engineered in the coming months.
built its counter on, Chowkidar chor hai (Modi is cor- over impact on Twitter and applause of the faithful. ideological, I-don’t-owe-you-or-your-parent-nothing
The stock market has given a high-five response, first to the exit poll numbers rupt) and Rafale (the half) failed to 7. Modi critics will never give generation. Very few go to JNU. They just compare
and now to the actual vote and seat tallies. Guaranteed government stability is a excite anyone except the committed him the credit for it, but his gov- earthy, self-made Modi deservingly living it up now,
matter of relief for investors, but profit-booking is also in evidence — as should Congress voter. Confusing the chor ernment was incredibly efficient at with Rahul merely living out his elite entitlement.
be expected at current valuations. Expectations of further bullishness should be echo at Rahul’s rallies with a change the delivery of key welfare pro- 10. What was Priyanka Gandhi doing? She was
tempered by the knowledge that difficult economic challenges lie ahead. Expect in the larger public mood, especially grammes. I had written two articles used as a guest artiste and never as a strategic asset.
when you begin with a 10-15 per cent recently: One on the five areas on The Congress’s obsession with a UP revival is self-
a cold shower when the January-March numbers for quarterly gross domestic
negative gap from 2014, is like taking the economy/infrastructure where destructive. She might have made greater difference
product get published next week. The Budget, when it is presented, will be an retweets for votes. BJP had done phenomenally better in Rajasthan, MP, Karnataka and Maharashtra where
eye-opener on how little wiggle room the government has for tax cuts to stimulate 3. “Love and tolerance” sound won- than UPA-II, and the second on the the party was in a straight shoot-out with the BJP.
flagging consumption. The government also has little money to sustain its push derful and heart-warming, but in a four reasons that put it ahead of She was the most convincing Congress campaigner,
for infrastructure investment, while private investment is hobbled because many congregation of the faithful. Voters the competition. Two among these and wasted in eastern UP.
leading companies and their promoters are still focused on deleveraging. Salvation need a positive offering. For Congress- SHEKHAR GUPTA are the electoral equivalent of killer 11. Modi plugging his achievements is fine. Rahul
Rahul, it was NYAY. It was too com- apps: A pan-national upper caste can counter him. Show me when Rahul listed UPA-
could come from the Bimal Jalan committee, which is considering how much plex, too late. In 10 weeks of travels vote bank that counters lower- II’s formidable achievements. T N Ninan had listed
of the Reserve Bank’s reserves should be transferred to the government. across India during the campaign, I did not find one caste/minority combinations and very low inflation, these in his usual pithy 500-odd words. Between
As for policy change, the question is what Mr Modi has learnt from his first likely beneficiary who had even heard of it. Happens which anaesthetised joblessness and individual eco- 2009 and 2014, 10 Janpath, egged on by the extra-
term, and whether that will make him more reformist in the second — pushing when you have a scheme designed with incredible nomic distress in the short term. constitutional centreof power (the National Advisory
for privatisation and market-oriented change. The stagnation in exports and the clumsiness — happens also when you ask French-Left 8. In the past five years, the Congress Party’s high Council), spent five years undermining its own gov-
failure of the manufacturing initiative need to be addressed. Agriculture needs economists to game the poorest Indian voter. Data point wasn’t so much its wins in Chhattisgarh, ernment because the durbaris couldn’t stand out-
shows that nearly half the voters did indeed hear about Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan as running Modi so sider Manmohan Singh winning a bigger second
special attention, the challenge being how best to deal with the growing surpluses NYAY, but they were the upper half. So those who were close in Gujarat in the winter of 2017. It made two term. I had then called it the Congress party’s auto-
that have depressed prices and farmers’ incomes. The proposed codification of to get NYAY, knew nothing about it. Those who were things evident: One, that rural and farmer distress immune disease, a withering condition when, as we
multiple labour laws needs to be pushed through, even as the financial sector’s to pay for it, mostly did. You can add it up. were hurting BJP voters. And two, that since Modi know, a body’s immune system turns on itself. That
problems are not over. In the wake of the shadow-bank crisis, both the availability 4. Amit Shah and Narendra Modi (putting Shah had no quick fixes, he will switch to a three-point hasn’t changed.
and cost of credit have become issues for small and medium enterprises. first is deliberate), did an enormously better job of campaign of nationalism, Hinduism and corruption- 12. And finally: Think about the Left. It will fail to
building alliances. To be fair, the front-runner is a busting, with the first as the central prong. This is cross two figures nationally, score a zero in its bastions
Cabinet formation will be watched keenly. If there are question marks over
stronger magnet. But they also showed much greater where his challengers failed. I can write a whole article of West Bengal and Tripura, and get most of its five-
Arun Jaitley’s health, and he seeks a lighter portfolio, the choice of finance large-heartedness. The clearest example is the space on this and may be some of you an entire thesis. But six seats from Tamil Nadu, hanging on to a DMK and
minister will be the most important decision to make. Amit Shah is serving an given to Nitish Kumar in Bihar. Compare it with the you cannot fight the still young Indian nationalism the Congress, which it opposes nationally.
extended term as party president and may wish to play on new turf, in the Congress cussedness. In UP, Delhi and Haryana. In with the woolly-headedness of the European Left. I We can sum up as follows: Conventional wisdom
Cabinet. Tested stalwarts like Piyush Goyal will look for meatier portfolios. Three short, the BJP built alliances looking at the future, the bet you a meal anywhere, including in Khan Market has it that the loser learns more from defeat than
experienced chief ministers have been put out to pasture; since the party is not Congress stayed obsessed with its glorious past. (sorry Modi ji, if it’s a copyright violation), that too the winner. Between the Congress and the BJP,
5. With the exception of Kerala and Punjab, the BJP many of the geniuses who inserted those promises to they’ve reversed that logic.
brimming with talent, they may need to be inducted via the Rajya Sabha.
march has only been stopped by regional parties. This repeal the sedition law, dilute AFSPA and Aadhaar live
includes Tamil Nadu. Kerala is early days for the BJP, in another country, if not another planet. Indira or By special arrangement with ThePrint

Cook who made Apple great again
ality that had helped his predecessor garner
the respect and adulation of zillions of Apple
loyalists across the world.
In fact, when Mr Cook was appointed
CEO in August 2011, industry insiders were
so sceptical that some of them even predict-
BOOK REVIEW ed that without its iconic founder, Apple was
doomed — it would soon go from a pioneer
DHRUV MUNJAL in innovation to just an average enterprise
that would invariably suffer a downturn in
Apple the first company to cross the tril-
lion-dollar mark in market cap. Having cov-
ered the company for over two decades, Mr
Kahney is the ultimate Apple insider. He
previously authored a book on Mr Jobs, as
well as one on Jony Ive, Apple’s long-run-
ning chief design officer, who was, inciden-
tally, among the front-runners to replace
Mr Jobs for the top post.
Mr Kahney’s work is an interesting read,
For instance, Mr Kahney mentions a
shocking encounter Mr Cook had with the
Ku Klux Klan while riding his bicycle as a
young boy in the 1970s. “The Klansmen Cook
witnessed had assembled their flaming cross
on the property of a local black family,” he
writes. The veracity of the incident has been
questioned by some locals, but Mr Cook in
years since has maintained that the experi-
ence had a lasting impact on him and the
business practices he would later employ.
Taking over from Mr Jobs was never
going to be easy, and Mr Cook got a taste of
the challenge fairly quickly. Within months
agement is the antithesis of Mr Jobs’ tena-
cious nonconformist approach, and such a
strategy is more suited to Apple’s culture in
the long run. Mr Jobs, in fact, is likened to a
“chief product officer”, whereas Mr Cook is
portrayed as the real deal — a man who has
his finger on the pulse of everything hap-
pening at his company, right from produc-
tion to marketing.
Mr Kahney is an unapologetic Apple
enthusiast and such glowing praise for Mr
Cook lends itself to hagiographic tendencies.
At times, Mr Cook comes across as a super-
human boss seemingly with no limitations.
San Bernardino shooting of 2015.
Mr Kahney concludes with the tenden-
tious argument that Mr Cook could be the
best CEO Apple has ever had. That is a dif-
ficult comparison because Mr Jobs was the
man who built the company and then
rebuilt it when it was on the verge of
bankruptcy in the late 1990s. Also, Mr Cook
will still be judged by the innovations he
makes. The Apple Watch and the Apple
AirPods are breakthroughs that Mr Cook
perhaps doesn’t get enough credit for, but
he is yet to come up with something that
can rival the astronomical success of the

T
hat Tim Cook was a somewhat sur-
prising and unnatural choice to suc-
ceed Steve Jobs as CEO of Apple is a
fairly well-known fact. The move seemed
all the more astonishing simply because Mr
Jobs, in ill health and fighting cancer at the
time, had handpicked Mr Cook for the role.
The consternation was understandable: Mr
Cook was clearly devoid of the trailblazing
qualities that had made Mr Jobs a global
tech phenomenon. He possessed none of
Mr Jobs’ disruptive talents, nor was he
blessed with the kind of maverick person-
https://t.me/SSC4Exams
growth and revenue. Some of the most fab-
ulously successful companies of the 20th
century — Sony, Disney, Ford, Polaroid —
all stumbled after the departure of the lead-
ers who built them, and critics feared that
Apple was headed down the same road.
Leander Kahney’s Tim Cook: The
Genius Who Took Apple to the Next Level is
essentially the story of how an unassuming
man from a town of 5,000 people in
Alabama crushed such doubts and defied
all expectations, and succeeded in not only
furthering Mr Jobs’ legacy, but also making
partly because this is the first comprehen- of taking charge, Apple shares plummeted
sive account of Mr Cook’s life. The bulk of it on the back of missed iPhone sales forecasts.
is based on his time at Apple, but equally Worse, there was buzz that Samsung phones
delightful is the lowdown on Mr Cook’s were overtaking Apple in some markets.
childhood — how a deeply private but well- Around the same time, Mr Cook had to get
liked boy won admirers at school and devel- rid of Scott Forstall, the executive behind
oped an early moral compass centred on Apple Maps, a colossal failure for which the
teachings from two of his heroes, Martin CEO had to eventually apologise.
Luther King Jr and Robert F Kennedy. In Mr Jobs would have never made such
fact, much of what Mr Cook has implement- an apology, notes Mr Kahney. Such com-
ed at Apple — equal rights, greater focus on parisons are a recurring motif in the book.
the environment, new charitable endeav- A lot of Mr Kahney’s premise is based on
ours — had its roots in his childhood. how Mr Cook’s more humane style of man-
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Which isn’t to say that Mr Cook hasn’t
improved Apple. Under him, the company,
with a special emphasis on user privacy,
racial diversity and women empowerment,
has set a sterling example for other corpora-
tions to follow. Even as the likes of Facebook
and Twitter have been engulfed by privacy
concerns in recent times, Apple has
remained largely unscathed in that respect.
The book, in fact, has a fascinating passage
on how Mr Cook denied the Federal Bureau
of Investigation access to an iPhone that
belonged to Syed Farook, a suspect in the
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iPhone. Moreover,, with the company
launching a slew of new services to make
up for sliding iPhone sales, Mr Cook’s legacy
is far from certain. What is certain, though,
as Mr Kahney so ably explains, is that Mr
Cook has made Apple — and the world — a
significantly better place.
TIM COOK:The Genius Who
Took Apple to the Next Level
Leander Kahney
Penguin Business; ~699, 303 pages
 https://t.me/TheHindu_Zone_official
14
>
MUMBAI | FRIDAY, 24 MAY 2019 1

Hindujas & Etihad fail

to strike a deal on Jet
Lenders express reservations to consider unsolicited bids over financial depth
ARINDAM MAJUMDER based Adi Partners and Darwin
New Delhi, 23 May Platform Group, which has
investments across various sec-
et Airways’ future tors, including oil and gas, hos-

J remained uncertain as
Hinduja Group and Abu
Dhabi-based Etihad Airways
failed to make headway in their
negotiations for joint ownership
of the airline.
Simultaneously, it has been
learnt that lenders have
expressed reservations to con-
sider the unsolicited bids, as
they find them lacking finan-
cial and managerial depth.
Multiple entities, including
UK-based entrepreneur Jason
Unsworth, Mumbai-based
Darwin Platform Group,
London-based AdiGro
Aviation, and Russian aviation
professional Oleg Evdokimov,
were not shortlisted by the
lenders but had submitted
bids after the deadline.
Officials of Hinduja Group
met Etihad executives’ on
Thursday at the Etihad head-
quarters in Abu Dhabi to dis-
cuss the deal. Top executives of
State Bank of India (SBI), which
leads the lenders’ consortium,
were also present at the meeting
in Abu Dhabi, the corporate
headquarters of Etihad.
“No decision has been tak-
en regarding the partnership.
The Hinduja Group is uncer-
tain about making any invest-
ment in Jet. Initial talks are
still under way. It is unlikely
that they will translate into
investment,” said a person
aware of the development.
As part of the Jet resolution
process, lenders had called bids
to buy up to 76 per cent in the
troubled airline. But it was only
Etihad which had submitted a
conditional bid, forcing the
lenders to look for a partner will-
ing to buy majority stake.
As part of the process, SBI
Caps, the investment banking
subsidiary of SBI, has reached
out to various Indian conglom-
erates and government-owned
National Investment and
Infrastructure Fund. It has also
started discussion with unso-
licited bidders like London-
pitality, and realty.
But sources said that both
lenders and Etihad are not com-
fortable with the entities hold-
ing stake in Jet as they have no
proven credentials in running
a big business.
Sources close to the bidding
process said that lenders took
legal opinion on whether to con-
sider the unsolicited bids which
came after the deadline and
finally decided against it.
Simultaneously, the credibility
of the entities also doesn’t fit for
managing Jet, which would
require large investment to
revive it. “Some of the entities
don’t have a head leading the
organisation. Some of them
have been unable to submit a
balance sheet of the last five
years. The lenders have decided
not to engage any more with the
parties,” said a senior executive
of a public sector bank.
IPL REACH UP BY 12%
TO 462 MN THIS YEAR TDS relief for elders with
With nail-biting last-ball thrillers and last-
over finishes, the 12th season of the Vivo
income up to ~500,000
PRESS TRUST OF INDIA taxpayers The amendments by
Indian Premier League (IPL) managed to keep New Delhi, 23 May the CBDT states that banks and
the viewers glued to their TV sets. This was financial institutions would
Senior citizens with a taxable accept Form 15H from
coupled with Star India’s robust distribution income of up to ~500,000 can assessees whose tax liability is
and telecast strategy, making this now submit in banks and post 'nil' after considering rebate
offices Form 15H to claim available under Section 87A of
tournament the most viewed IPL ever exemption from TDS on inter- the Income Tax Act, 1961.
URVI MALVANIA est income on deposits, accord- Senior citizens, above 60
ing to a CBDT notification. years of age, have to submit
 The tournament was  Pockets of viewers Earlier, the limit for seeking Form 15H to banks at the begin-
telecast in 8 languages showed growth in Tax Deducted at Source (TDS) ning of a financial year to
exemption was ~250,000. ensure that no tax is deducted
which resulted in viewership, including The Central Board of Direct at source on interest income.
overall reach increasing adult male viewers. Taxes (CBDT) has issued a noti- To provide tax relief to the
by 12 per cent in Viewership among kids fication amending Form 15H to taxpayers earning income up

Nippon Life, RCap sign

2018. Reach for the showed most growth give effect to the Budget to ~500,000 a year, the Budget
tournament was at 27 per cent, which announcement. The Union increased the rebate under
462 million across the broadcaster Budget 2019-20 has given full Section 87A from ~2,500 to
tax rebate to individuals hav- ~12,500, thereby ensuring that
TV and digital attributes to its ing a taxable annual income of those earning income up to

deal for sale of MF arm  TV viewership also saw

an increase with IPL
2019 registering 27.3
million viewers in
strategy of program-
ming weekend feeds
that catered specially
to the family
up to ~500,000, benefitting
around 30 million middle class
~500,000 do not have to pay
any taxes.

Japanese company will hike holding in Reliance MF to 75% from 43% terms of average audiences
impressions  The Hindi-speaking
JASH KRIPLANI & SAMIE MODAK  Total consumption in market (HSM) saw
Mumbai, 23 May
terms of total time maximum growth in
spent watching the both reach and
Anil Ambani group firm Reliance
Capital (RCap) has signed a definitive tournament increased consumption (2019
agreement with Nippon Life to sell its from 300 billion over 2018). This was a
stake in Reliance Nippon Life Asset minutes in 2018 to market that has seen
Management (RNAM). Under the agree- 338 billion minutes some attrition in
ment, the Japanese firm will hike its viewership in 2018
shareholding in RNAM from 42.88 per
this year
cent to 75 per cent by buying shares
from public shareholders and RCap. VIEWERSHIP AT A RECORD HIGH
To ensure compliance of the 25 per  Consumption (billion minutes) Average impressions (million)
cent public shareholding norms,  Reach (million) Figures in brackets are growth
Nippon Life will first launch an open in 2019 over 2018 (%)
offer to acquire the entire 14.6 per cent IPL Growth over
public shareholding in RNAM. 2019 IPL 2018 (%) 27.3 (15)
Depending on the shares tendered Kids
338 13 4.3 (27)
in the open offer, Nippon will acquire All-India (2-14 years)
462 12
RCap’s stake to take its shareholding tal-
234 14 9.8 (14) Females
ly to 75 per cent. HSM
287 17 (15+ years)
For instance, if the open offer is ful-
ly subscribed, Nippon Life’s stake will go 104 10
up from 42.88 per cent to 57.48 per cent. DEAL CONTOURS South
175 3 13.2 (11) Males
The company would then buy another (15+ years)
| Nippon and RCap own 42.88% each | Nippon will pay ~230 per share Source: BARC data provided by Star India
17.52 per cent from RCap, to take its stake
in RNAM currently to both minority shareholders
to 75 per cent.
Nippon has set the acquisition price | Nippon Life plans to hike its stake to and RCap
—both for the open offer as well as 75%, becoming sole promoter | Nippon not obligated to acquire DP World-NIIF joint
Rcap’s stake — at ~230 per share, lower pledged shares if ‘relevant terms’
than RNAM’s latest close of ~234 per
| Japanese firm announced open offer
not met venture to acquire
for 14.2% stake from public
share. The price, however, is at a 15 per
shareholders | RCap to sell up to 8.6% stake 76% in KRIBHCO Infra
cent premium to the stock’s previous
| Nippon could acquire anywhere through OFS on Friday
60-day average, a threshold to arrive at Hindustan Infralog, a joint
an open offer price. between 17.5% and 32% from RCap, | RCap to fully exit from RNAM venture of DP World and the
Meanwhile, RCap has announced depending on open offer acceptance eventually National Investment and
that it will offload 5.25 per cent stake Infrastructure Fund,
through the offer for sale (OFS) route on “The monetisation of the RNAM Nippon Life will continue with the announced the acquisition
Friday. The company has put on block stake is part of our value unlocking strat- existing management and fund man- of a 76 per cent stake in
32.1 million shares and set the floor price egy. We expect this transaction, togeth- agers of RNAM. Sources said Sundeep KRIBHCO Infrastructure. The
at ~218 per share, 6.4 per cent discount to er with other deals underway, to sub- Sikka, chief executive officer, RNAM latter is an integrated multi-
last closing price. Under the definitive stantially reduce RCap’s debt by over 50 had signed a long-term bond with modal logistics operator. The
agreement, RCap plans to offload its per cent in the current financial year,” Nippon Life to ensure continuity of the acquisition was done thro-
entire stake in RNAM. The stake left said Anil Ambani, chairman, top-leadership of the fund house. ugh HIPL’s 90 per cent owned
after Friday’s OFS and share sale to Reliance Group. Further, sources privy to the devel- arm, Continental Warehous-
Nippon will again be offered in the open Minoru Kimura, executive officer opment said Nippon Life and RCap had ing Corporation (Nhava
market at a later date. and head-Asia Pacific, Nippon Life also entered into a non-compete agree- Sheva). KRIBCHO (Krishak
According to RCap, it aims to mop Insurance, said, “Nippon Life also has ment, which would prevent RCap from Bharati Cooperative Society)
up a total of ~6,000 crore by selling its strong network in US and Europe, which operating as a mutual fund player will continue to retain the
holding in RNAM. The sale proceeds we can leverage to bring the money in for one year after the deal is remaining 24 per cent equity
will be used for deleveraging. India.” successfully concluded. in KRIL. JYOTI MUKUL

Telcos grapple to keep network costs in check

ROMITA MAJUMDAR
Mumbai, 23 May
The financials of telecom companies
indicate that network cost as a per cent
of mobile revenues ranged between 25
and 30 per cent between financial
years 2013 to 2018.
But entry of Reliance Jio in FY17
led to a massive 4G rollout by the tel-
cos across circles, leading to a rise in
network cost. Vodafone Idea Ltd
currently leads the pack with almost
43.3 per cent network operating
expenses (opex) as per cent of rev-
enue. It, however, managed to
reduce it by around 10 per cent in
the March quarter.
The reason for high network
spends lately has been due to incum-
bent telcos trying to provide 4G servic-
es on a par with Reliance Jio.
According to the March data of the
Telecom Regulatory Authority of India
(TRAI), Airtel has 20.35 per cent broad-
band market share, Vodafone Idea
19.57 per cent share while Jio leads the
pack with 54.45 per cent.
Prashant Singhal, emerging mar-
kets telecom, media and technology
leader, EY, said, “Globally, the trend is
for telecom operators to spend
between 25 and 30 per cent of their
revenues as network capital expendi-
ture (capex). Over the past few years,
companies have rushed to spend on
3G-4G technology. The next line of
spending will be on 5G rollout but that
can be expected two years later.
However, the technology cycle is get-
ting shorter as a result of which the
network spend is likely to remain
high.” Analysts note that stabilisation
is far off with telcos stuck in a perpet-
ual cycle of new technology roll out.
Bharti Airtel’s network cost as a per
cent of mobile revenue is at 28 per
cent, Jio’s is at 30 per cent and
Vodafone has reduced it from 48 per
cent last quarter as part of their syner-
gy drive.
“A look at telcos’ financials indi-
cate that network cost as a per cent of
mobile revenues ranged between 25
and 30 per cent between financial
years 2013 and 2018. But entry of
Reliance Jio in FY17 led to the massive
4G rollout by the telcos across circles,
leading to rise in network companies,”
said Hetal Gandhi, director, CRISIL
Research.
Gandhi added that during FY19,
Bharti Airtel’s and Reliance Jio’s net-
work operation costs grew by around
16 per cent and 85 per cent year-on-
year (YoY), respectively.
CRISIL Research believes the net-
work cost will remain high in FY20
owing to continued incremental net-
work roll-out in rural areas and build-
ing capacities in high congestion
areas, after which there may be some
stabilisation. Also, accelerated net-
work integration in India’s largest
telco, Vodafone Idea, has led to
realisation of synergy in the recent
quarters and is expected to see
more synergies which will check
network opex.
Network spends have been the
highest for Vodafone Idea, which has
been on a drive to synergise infra-
structure to pare costs. Their 10 per
cent reduction of network costs
helped improve earnings before
interest, tax, depreciation and amor-
tisation (EBITDA) by 87 per cent in
the March quarter, much higher than
analyst estimates.
“The underlying opex (including
network opex) reduction is equiva-
lent to an annualised synergy reali-
sation of around Rs 5,100 crore, 60
per cent of the Rs 8400 crore opex
synergy target outlined by the com-
pany,” wrote Viju K George,
research analyst, JP Morgan. He
added this may not necessarily
indicate that Vodafone Idea’s
steady state margins will rise to
higher than the level they had fore-
cast. George rather felt that
Vodafone Idea is likely to see an
accelerated reduction of the quarte-
ly operating cash outgo in the
forthcoming quarters on network
opex as the synergy benefits set in.
Vodafone Idea eliminated 4,894
mobile broadband sites in Q4 FY19 (-1
per cent quarter-on-quarter or QoQ)
and 8,000 2G sites (-3 per cent QoQ)
during the quarter.

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