Weekly demand figures at Hot Pizza are as follows:

Demand ($) Level Forecast Error Absolute Error Squared Error

Week MADt %Error MAPEt TSt
Dt Lt Ft Et At MSEt
1 110
2 118
3 119
4 134 120
5 92 116 120 28 28.25 1596.13 56.50 30.71 30.71 1.00
6 115 115 116 1 0.75 399.31 14.50 0.65 15.68 2.00
7 90 108 115 25 25.00 474.35 17.75 27.78 29.24 3.00
8 106 101 108 2 1.75 200.28 7.50 1.65 16.18 4.00
9 118 107 101 -17 17.25 219.13 9.10 14.62 22.66 1.21
10 106 105 107 1 1.25 133.27 4.92 1.18 15.94 6.00
11 95 106 105 10 10.00 128.29 5.46 10.53 20.62 7.00
12 93 103 106 13 13.25 121.70 5.19 14.25 22.48 8.00

Moving Average
L12 103
F13=F14=F15=F16=L12 103
MAD12 5.19
Standard Deviation 6.484375
 Mean Squared
Demand ($) Level Forecast Error Absolute Error
Week Error MADt %Error MAPEt TSt
Dt Lt Ft Et At MSEt
0 108.00
1 110 108.20 108.00 -2.00 2.00 8.00 4.00 1.82 1.82 -1.00
2 118 109.18 108.20 -9.80 9.80 50.02 5.90 8.31 5.06 -2.00
3 119 110.16 109.18 -9.82 9.82 33.48 3.94 8.25 5.04 -3.00
4 134 112.55 110.16 -23.84 23.84 143.06 6.46 17.79 9.80 -4.00
5 92 110.49 112.55 20.55 20.55 85.23 4.51 22.33 12.08 4.11
6 115 110.94 110.49 -4.51 4.51 4.05 1.08 3.92 2.87 -6.00
7 90 108.85 110.94 20.94 20.94 63.22 3.28 23.27 12.54 5.78
8 106 108.56 108.85 2.85 2.85 1.51 0.61 2.69 2.25 1.40
9 118 109.51 108.56 -9.44 9.44 10.34 1.27 8.00 4.91 -9.00
10 106 109.16 109.51 3.51 3.51 1.63 0.55 3.31 2.56 2.74
11 95 107.74 109.16 14.16 14.16 18.58 1.47 14.90 8.36 8.28
12 93 106.27 107.74 14.74 14.74 18.44 1.40 15.85 8.83 9.13

Simple Exponential Smoothing

L0 108.00
L12 106.27
MAD12 1.40
Standard Deviation 1.743802026