Company Update

July 12, 2012

Rating matrix
Rating : Strong Buy Bharti Airtel (BHATE)
Target : | 420
Target Period : 12 months | 306
Potential Upside : 37%
WHAT’S CHANGED…
Key Financials PRICE TARGET....................................................................................................Unchanged
| Crore FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E EPS (FY13E)........................................................................................................Unchanged
Net Sales 59,467 71,450.8 81,268.0 90,104.4
EPS (FY14E)........................................................................................................Unchanged
EBITDA 19,960.8 23,657.3 26,931.7 30,690.3
Net Profit 6,046.8 4,259.4 5,609.6 8,106.4 RATING.............................................................................Changed from Buy to Strong Buy
EPS (|) 15.9 11.2 14.8 21.4
Case for a Strong Buy…
Valuation summary Bharti Airtel is the market leader with ~30.1% revenue market share and
FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E strongest fundamentals in the industry. Falling capex intensity, repayment
P/E 19.2 27.3 20.7 14.3 of debt and reduced interest expense thereon, margin expansion in the
Target P/E 26.4 37.5 28.4 19.7 African business and high quality subscribers (first takers of 3G) led
EV / EBITDA 8.8 7.7 6.6 5.4 uptake in 3G services would drive EPS to almost double by FY14E.
P/BV 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.8 Spectrum pricing and other regulatory overhang may remain in the near
RoNW (%) 12.4 8.4 10.1 12.8
term but it seems to be already priced in. Bharti with strongest
RoCE (%) 8.6 8.4 10.1 12.3
fundamentals in the industry would be the last man standing after the
outcome of ongoing regulatory proceedings. With a favourable risk-
Stock data reward ratio, we rate the stock as STRONG BUY with a target price of
Market Capitalization (| Crore) 116,286.2 | 420 per share.
Total Debt (FY12) (| Crore) 69,023.2
Cash and Investments (FY12) (| Crore) 3,843.2
Strong fundamentals; EPS to nearly double by FY14…
EV (| Crore) 181,466.2 Bharti is a dominant market leader in the industry with revenue market
52 week H/L 441 / 282 share of 30.1% in the industry and a subscriber market share of 19.8%
Equity capital | 1898.2 Crore (24.3% on VLR basis) indicating strong quality of subscribers. Total 91.4%
Face value |5 of subscribers are active as per the visitor location register (VLR) data as
MF Holding (%) 8.2 against 74.6% of the industry. Also, the African business has started
FII Holding (%) 16.9 showing meaningful improvement in EBITDA margins. We expect
revenues to grow at a CAGR of 12.3% in FY12-14E on the back of an
Price movement increase in traffic in both domestic as well as African business. The
6,000 500 company is past its peak capex cycle and on a consolidated level would
5,500 450 be generating free cash flow in excess of | 10000 crore each year, which
5,000 400 would be used to repay the debt. Led by an improving operational
4,500 350 performance and reduction in interest outgo on account of debt
300
4,000 repayment, we expect EPS to grow 1.9x to | 21.4 by FY14E from the FY12
250
3,500 200
EPS of | 11.2.
3,000 150 Valuation
2,500 100
2,000 50 Using the DCF methodology for valuing Bharti and assuming a revenue
Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 CAGR of 7.9% in FY12-20E and a terminal growth of 3.0% thereon, we
Price (R.H.S) Nifty (L.H.S) have arrived at a target price of | 420. The risk reward seems to be
favourable at this point. We rate the stock as STRONG BUY.
Exhibit 1: Key Financials
Analyst’s name
(Year-end March) FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E
Karan Mittal Net Sales (| crore) 39,615.0 59,467.2 71,450.8 81,268.0 90,104.4
karan.mittal@icicisecurities.com EBITDA (| crore) 16,026.6 19,960.8 23,657.3 26,931.7 30,690.3
Net Profit (| crore) 9,102.5 6,046.8 4,259.4 5,609.6 8,106.4
Anil Shenoy
anil.shenoy@icicisecurities.com EPS (|) 24.0 15.9 11.2 14.8 21.4
P/E (x) 12.8 19.2 27.3 20.7 14.3
Price / Book (x) 2.8 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.2 8.8 7.7 6.6 5.4
RoCE (%) 19.7 8.6 8.4 10.1 12.3
RoE (%) 22.0 12.4 8.4 10.1 12.8

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

 Dominant position
Bharti is a dominant market leader in the industry with revenue market
share of 30.1% in the industry and subscriber market share of 19.8%
(24.3% on VLR basis) indicating strong quality of subscribers. Total 91.4%
of subscribers are active as per the visitor location register (VLR) data as
against 74.6% of the industry. These high-end subscribers will be the first
to move on to 3G services. Consequently, the company also boasts of
highest 3G subscribers in the country with ~8 million subscribers. The
company also has the highest ARPU and MoU among listed players at
| 189 and 431 minutes, respectively.
Exhibit 2: Strong market leader

33.9 33.3 33.1 33.3

35.0 32.7 32.7 32.8 33.3 32.2 32.0
33.0 31.2 31.1 31.8 30.9 30.5
30.1
31.0
29.0
27.0 24.6 25.0 25.1 24.3 24.3
23.7 23.0
25.0 22.1 21.7
23.0 21.0 20.4
20.1 20.0 19.9 19.8 19.8
21.0
19.0
17.0
15.0
Q109 Q309 Q110 Q310 Q111 Q311 Q112 Q312

Subscriber Market Share Revenue Market Share

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 3: Key metrics - Assumptions

Bharti Airtel Unit FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14
Subscribers millions 162 181 204 221
ARPU | 201 188 191 193
MOU minutes 456 431 440 449
ARPM Paisa 44.1 43.6 43.3 43.1
Traffic Billion minutes 792.1 888.5 1018.2 1146.5

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Though the company has been marginally losing its revenue market share
with the entrance of new operators in the industry, the market share still
remains at a strong level of above 30%. With imminent consolidation in
the industry, we expect Bharti to retain its market share subsequently.
Going forward, though the ARPM would be pressurised by the
competition among incumbents, we expect MoU and ARPU to improve
significantly. This will drive revenues, going forward.

We expect the Indian mobile business to grow at a CAGR of 12.9% in

FY12-14E led by 13.6% growth in total minutes on the network and a
marginal decline in the ARPM to 43 paisa.
African operations to drive growth subsequently
Though the improvement in African operations has been lower than
expectations, the trend seems to be reversing in the last two quarters.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 2

 Exhibit 4: Improvement in African EBITDA margin
Financials of Africa Units Q1FY12 Q2FY12 Q3FY12 Q4FY12
Revenue $ mn 978.7 1,030.2 1,057.2 1,071.0
EBITDA $ mn 261.2 270.4 282.1 297.9
EBITDA Margin % 26.7 26.2 26.7 27.8
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

While the ARPM in the African business is expected to reduce, going

forward, owing to the competition in African markets, we expect the
growth in MoU and the subscriber base to more than cover up for the
slump in ARPM. We expect African revenues to grow at a CAGR of 15.5%
in FY12-14E from | 19826.7 crore to | 26470.8 crore on the back of an
increase in the subscriber base from 53.1 million to 70.0 million and
growth in MoU from 123 to 134.
Exhibit 5: KPI assumptions
Key Metrics for Africa Units FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E
Subscriber base Millions 44.2 53.1 61.6 70.0
ARPU US$ 5.4 7.1 6.8 6.7
MoU Min 122 123 126 134
ARPM US¢ 6.2 5.8 5.4 5.0
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 6: African operations - Revenue & EBITDA growth

30,000 27.9 29
27.6
28
25,000 26.7
27
20,000
26
| crore

15,000 23.9 25

%
24
10,000
23
5,000
22
13,083.4 19,826.7 23,755.8 26,470.8
0 21
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

Revenue EBITDA margins

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

EPS to almost double by FY14E

We expect revenues to post a CAGR of 12.3% from FY12-14E owing to
strong KPIs and its leadership position in the domestic market. The
EBITDA margin is expected to improve from 33.1% in FY12 to 34.1% in
FY14 due to its operating leverage. The company is past its peak capex
cycle. On a consolidated level, Bharti would be generating free cash flow
in excess of | 10000 crore each year, which would be used to repay the
debt. Led by an improving operational performance and reduction in
interest outgo on account of debt repayment, we expect the EPS to grow
1.9x to | 21.4 by FY14E from FY12 EPS of | 11.2.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 3

 Exhibit 7: Improving revenue & EBITDA trend

34.1
100000.0 34.2
90000.0 34.0
80000.0 33.6 33.8
70000.0 33.6
60000.0
33.1 33.4
50000.0 33.1
Revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of 12.3% in 33.2
40000.0
FY12-14E from | 71451 crore to | 90104 crore while the 30000.0 33.0
EBITDA margin is expected to increase from 33.1% to 20000.0 32.8
34.1% 10000.0 59467 19961 71451 23657 81268 26932 90104 30690 32.6
0.0 32.4
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

Revenue EBITDA EBITDA Margins

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 8: PAT to improve on reduced interest outgo

9000 8106.4 70000.0

8000 60000.0
7000 6046.8
Net debt is expected to reduce from | 65180.0 crore in 5609.6 50000.0
6000
FY12 to | 50681.9 crore in FY14 leading to a reduction in 4259.4 40000.0
5000
| crore

interest outgo from | 3818.5 crore to | 3592.5 crore. PAT

4000 30000.0
would grow at a CAGR of 38.0% from | 4259.4 crore to 2181.3 4348.6
3000 3818.5
| 8106.4 crore 3592.5 20000.0
2000
1000 10000.0
60090.9 65180.0 60825.7 50681.9
0 0.0
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

Net Debt Interest PAT

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 9: Capex intensity to decline

20000 30.0
18000 25.3
16000 25.0
14000 19.7 20.0
The company is past its peak capex cycle and is expected
12000 16.6
| crore

to witness a decline in capex intensity from 25.3% in FY12

10000 15.0
%

to 16.6% in FY14. The absolute capex is expected to 18,075.9

8000 16,000.0 15,000.0
decrease from | 18075.9 crore to ~| 15000 crore 6000 10.0
4000 5.0
2000
0 0.0
FY12E FY13E FY14E

Capex Capex Intensity

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 4

 Regulatory overhang remains…
The industry has been marred by regulatory issues since 2010 when the
first set of recommendations were issued by Trai for the new telecom
policy. In the latest set of recommendations, several issues ranging from
spectrum refarming, one time spectrum charges and high reserve prices
for auction to spectrum liberalisation have been raised.

Most of these issues have been widely opposed by industry participants.

While several new operators like DB Etisalat, STel and Loop have already
decided to shut shop after the Supreme Court cancelled their licenses,
Uninor and SSTL have announced that they will not participate in auctions
if the recommendation on high reserve price is accepted by the
government. We believe even incumbents would shy away from
participating if reserve prices are not rationalised.

However, some of the media reports suggest that the EGoM may relax
the recommendations considerably to aid industry growth. To factor in
the financial impact on Bharti Airtel, we have assigned a 25% probability
to the reserve price being kept at current levels, 50% probability to it
being lowered by 50% and 25% probability to it being cut by 75%. Based
on our analysis, the company may have to shell out ~ | 30700 crore (at
the base price) as one-time spectrum fee and for retaining its spectrum as
and when it comes up for renewal.
Exhibit 10: Estimated payout
(| Crore) Current At 50% Discount At 75% Discount
Pan India Spectrum Fees 900 MHz 1800 MHz 900 MHz 1800 MHz 900 MHz 1800 MHz
(per MHz) 7244.4 3622.2 3622.2 1811.1 1811.1 905.5
Payout for Bharti Airtel
Current At 50% Discount At 75% Discount
Entire Spectrum 11404.4 5702.2 2851.1
Equal Equal Equal
Above 4.4 MHz 5068.8 2534.4 1267.2
Probability Probability Probability
Above 6.2 MHz 2518.5 1259.2 629.6
Estimated Payout on one
6330.6 3165.3 1582.6
time spectrum fees
NPV of spectrum retention
48253.1 24126.6 12063.3
charges
Total Payout 54583.7 27291.8 13645.9
Assigned Probability 25% 50% 25%
Estimated Payout 30703.3
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

…but Bharti Airtel would remain the last man standing

We believe in such a scenario the company would raise tariffs to support
high capital expenditure. We assume the ARPM will go up to 60 paisa,
which would result in an MoU decline of about 25% from 431 currently to
323. Moreover, the tariff increase would also be supported by reduced
competition since post these auctions most of the operators who were
awarded licenses in 2008 would cease to exist.
Exhibit 11: Estimates after considering the payouts and increase in prices
FY13 FY14
(| Crore) Current Estimates After Payout Current Estimates After Payout
Revenue 81268.0 81161.7 90104.4 90368.1
EBITDA 26931.7 29230.7 30690.3 33350.7
Depreciation 14703.8 15453.8 15914.0 17414.0
Interest 4348.6 6271.5 3592.5 5677.5
PBT 7999.3 7545.4 11303.7 10305.4
PAT 5609.6 5291.4 8106.4 7390.5
EPS (|) 14.8 13.9 21.4 19.5
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 5

 Valuation
We believe at current valuations the stock looks attractive as most of the
negatives seem to be already priced in. The stock has been subdued
since the first set of recommendations was released in 2010. We believe
once the auctions are conducted and there is more clarity on regulatory
policy coupled with reduced competition, the company would get re-
rated.

Currently, the stock is trading at a P/E of 14.3x, which is way below the
last five year’s average PE of 21.2. We believe that as regulatory clarity
starts emerging, the stock will start inching towards its long term average.

Exhibit 12: One year forward P/E chart

900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Price
0
Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-09 May-10 Oct-10 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12

CLOSE PER 35 PER 29 PER 23 PER 17 PER 11

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Using the DCF methodology for valuing Bharti and assuming a revenue
CAGR of 7.9% in FY12-20E and a terminal growth of 3.0% thereon, we
have arrived at a target price of | 420. The risk reward seems to be
favourable at current valuations. We rate the stock as STRONG BUY.

Exhibit 13: DCF valuation

| in Crore
WACC 10.7%
Revenue CAGR over FY12-20E 7.9%
Present Value of Cash Flow till FY20E 90,105.9
Terminal Growth 3.0%
Present Value of terminal cash flow 138,413.3
PV of firm 228,519.2
Less: Current Debt 69,023.2
Total present value of the Equity 159,496.0
Number of Equity Shares outstanding 379.6
DCF - Target price (|) 420
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 14: Valuation table

Sales Growth EPS Growth PE EV/EBITDA RoNW RoCE
(| cr) (%) (|) (%) (x) (x) (%) (%)
FY11 59467.2 7.2 15.9 7.5 19.2 8.8 12.4 8.6
FY12 71450.8 20.2 11.2 -29.6 27.3 7.7 8.4 8.4
FY13E 81268.0 13.7 14.8 31.7 20.7 6.6 10.1 10.1
FY14E 90104.4 10.9 21.4 44.5 14.3 5.4 12.8 12.3
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 6

Financial summary
Profit and loss statement Cash flow statement
(| Crore) (| Crore)
(Year-end March) FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E (Year-end March) FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E
Total operating Income 59,467.2 71,450.8 81,268.0 90,104.4 Profit after Tax 6,046.8 4,259.4 5,609.6 8,106.4
Growth (%) 50.1 20.2 13.7 10.9 Add: Depreciation 10,206.6 13,368.1 14,703.8 15,914.0
Employee Expenses 3,280.3 3,515.9 3,855.9 4,175.5 (Inc)/dec in Current Assets -4,418.4 -1,337.4 -667.7 -426.9
Marketing Expenses 10,780.7 12,630.9 14,057.8 15,450.2 Inc/(dec) in CL and Provisions 15,519.6 1,032.0 862.2 2,685.3
Access Charges 7,476.4 9,736.1 11,485.0 12,711.0 Others 2,181.3 3,818.5 4,348.6 3,592.5
Network Operating 12,753.1 15,759.8 17,666.6 18,995.2 CF from operating activities 29,535.9 21,140.5 24,856.5 29,871.3
License Fee 5,173.0 6,109.9 6,943.7 7,718.6 (Inc)/dec in Investments 2,601.6 -2,817.0 0.0 0.0
Other Costs 42.9 40.9 327.3 363.6 (Inc)/dec in Fixed Assets -93,109.7 -18,075.9 -16,000.0 -15,000.0
Total Operating Expenditure 39,506.4 47,793.5 54,336.3 59,414.1 Others 6,142.1 -294.2 290.7 -690.7
EBITDA 19,960.8 23,657.3 26,931.7 30,690.3 CF from investing activities -84,365.9 -21,187.1 -15,709.3 -15,690.7
Growth (%) 24.5 18.5 13.8 14.0 Issue/(Buy back) of Equity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Depreciation 10,206.6 13,368.1 14,703.8 15,914.0 Inc/(dec) in loan funds 55,209.0 7,352.4 -6,000.0 -9,000.0
Interest 2,181.3 3,818.5 4,348.6 3,592.5 Dividend paid & dividend tax -442.8 -444.2 -444.2 -444.2
Other Income 136.3 55.0 120.0 120.0 Inc/(dec) in Sec. premium 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Non Operating Expenses 23.6 - - - Others -408.0 -5,789.2 -4,348.6 -3,592.5
PBT 7,685.6 6,525.7 7,999.3 11,303.7 CF from financing activities 54,358.2 1,119.0 -10,792.8 -13,036.7
MI / Profit from associates -140.2 6.1 -10.1 -24.2 Net Cash flow -471.9 1,072.5 -1,645.7 1,143.8
Total Tax 1,779.0 2,260.2 2,399.8 3,221.6 Opening Cash 1,429.4 957.5 2,030.0 384.3
PAT 6,046.8 4,259.4 5,609.6 8,106.4 Closing Cash 957.5 2,030.0 384.3 1,528.1
Growth (%) -33.6 -29.6 31.7 44.5 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
EPS (|) 15.9 11.2 14.8 21.4
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Balance sheet Key ratios

(| Crore) (Year-end March) FY11 FY12E FY13E FY14E
(Year-end March) FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E Per share data (|)
Liabilities EPS 15.9 11.2 14.8 21.4
Equity Capital 1,898.8 1,898.8 1,898.8 1,898.8 Cash EPS 42.8 46.4 53.5 63.3
Reserve and Surplus 46,868.0 48,712.5 53,877.9 61,540.1 BV 128.5 133.3 146.9 167.1
Total Shareholders funds 48,766.8 50,611.3 55,776.7 63,438.9 DPS 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Total Debt 61,670.8 69,023.2 63,023.2 54,023.2 Cash Per Share 2.5 5.3 1.0 4.0
Deferred Tax Liability 1,248.7 1,162.1 1,162.1 1,162.1 Operating Ratios
Others 6,272.6 6,685.5 6,675.4 6,651.2 EBITDA Margin (%) 33.6 33.1 33.1 34.1
Total Liabilities 117,958.9 127,482.1 126,637.4 125,275.4 PBT Margin (%) 12.9 9.1 9.8 12.5
PAT Margin (%) 10.2 6.0 6.9 9.0
Assets Inventory days 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7
Gross Block 160,391.0 178,466.9 194,466.9 209,466.9 Debtor days 21.1 30.3 29.5 27.5
Less: Acc Depreciation 31,516.7 44,884.8 59,588.6 75,502.6 Creditor days 113.2 120.6 107.0 101.0
Net Block 128,874.3 133,582.1 134,878.3 133,964.3 Return Ratios (%)
Investments 1,415.4 3,524.2 3,524.2 3,524.2 RoE 12.4 8.4 10.1 12.8
Inventory 213.9 130.8 158.6 162.3 RoCE 8.6 8.4 10.1 12.3
Debtors 5,492.9 6,373.5 6,763.0 6,814.4 RoIC 8.2 8.7 10.2 12.7
Loans and Advances 3,050.4 3,262.1 3,415.1 3,613.0 Valuation Ratios (x)
Other Current Assets 870.6 1,198.8 1,296.1 1,470.1 P/E 19.2 27.3 20.7 14.3
Cash 957.5 2,030.0 384.3 1,528.1 EV / EBITDA 8.8 7.7 6.6 5.4
Total Current Assets 10,585.3 12,995.1 12,017.1 13,587.9 EV / Net Sales 3.0 2.5 2.2 1.9
Creditors 23,968.4 23,265.0 24,382.5 25,483.4 Market Cap / Sales 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.3
Provisions 118.0 129.0 135.2 141.3 Price to Book Value 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.8
Other Current Liabilities 4,461.1 6,185.5 5,923.9 7,502.2 Solvency Ratios
Total Current Liabilities 28,547.5 29,579.5 30,441.7 33,126.9 Debt/EBITDA 3.1 2.9 2.3 1.8
Net Current Assets -17,962.2 -16,584.3 -18,424.5 -19,539.0 Debt / Equity 1.3 1.4 1.1 0.9
Others Assets 5,631.4 6,960.1 6,659.4 7,325.9 Current Ratio 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Application of Funds 117,958.9 127,482.1 126,637.4 125,275.4 Quick Ratio 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 7

ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (Telecom)
CMP M Cap EPS (|) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoCE (%) RoE (%)
Sector / Company (|) TP(|) Rating (| Cr) FY12 FY13E FY14E FY12 FY13E FY14E FY12 FY13E FY14E FY12 FY13E FY14E FY12 FY13E FY14E
Telecom
Bharti Airtel (BHATE) 306 420 Buy 116,286 11.2 14.8 21.4 27.3 20.7 14.3 7.7 6.6 5.4 8.4 10.1 12.3 8.4 10.1 12.8
Idea Cellular (IDECEL) 83 85 Hold 27,268 2.2 3.9 6.0 37.7 21.2 13.8 7.9 6.0 4.8 8.0 11.2 14.4 5.6 9.0 12.1
OnMobile (ONMGLO) 38 UR UR 438 7.2 8.0 9.2 5.3 4.7 4.2 2.3 1.0 0.5 5.8 10.0 10.8 9.4 9.6 10.0
Reliance Comm. (RELCOM) 69 67 Hold 14,221 4.5 2.5 4.4 15.3 27.9 15.6 9.0 8.2 7.3 2.3 2.7 3.3 2.9 1.6 2.8
TTML (HUGTEL) 14 12 Sell 2,647 NM NM NM NM NM NM 15.3 13.8 57.4 NM 0.4 NM NM NM NM
Tulip Telecom (TULITS) 117 96 Sell 1,698 21.4 13.8 15.1 5.5 8.5 7.8 4.1 4.7 4.6 16.3 13.4 13.3 21.3 12.3 12.0
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Exhibit 15: Recommendation History
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Jul-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Jul-12

Price Target Price

Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 16: Recent Releases

Date Event CMP Target Price Rating
4-Aug-11 Q1FY12 Result Update 422 450 HOLD
5-Oct-11 Q2FY12 Result Preview 370 450 BUY
4-Nov-11 Q2FY12 Result Update 398 450 BUY
6-Jan-12 Q3FY12 Result Preview 344 450 BUY
9-Feb-12 Q3FY12 Result Update 350 450 BUY
4-Apr-12 Q4FY12 Result Preview 337 450 BUY
3-May-12 Q4FY12 Result Update 318 420 BUY
5-Jul-12 Q1FY13 Result Preview 327 420 BUY
Source: ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 8

RATING RATIONALE
ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns
ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them
as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional
target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock.

Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction;
Buy: > 10%/ 15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively;
Hold: Up to +/-10%;
Sell: -10% or more;

Pankaj Pandey Head – Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC,
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093
research@icicidirect.com

ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Karan Mittal MBA, Anil Shenoy MBA research analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our
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view(s) in this report. Analysts aren't registered as research analysts by FINRA and might not be an associated person of the ICICI Securities Inc.

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