COSMIC PATTERNS Toun NeisonTABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION FOREWARD CHAPTER 1 Introduction to Sunspots, the lonosphere, znd Shortwave Radio CHAPTER 2 Early Research Period CHAPTER 3 The Search For Angles CHAPTER 4 The Search for Harmonic Refinements CHAPTER S Summary APPENDIX 7 29 37 69 walINTRODUCTION This book deals with one of the most controversial questions in the field of solar system science: Do the planets play a past in the development and behavior of sunspots and magnetic storms? The author, who has spent almost 30 years doing detailed research in this field, has produced very strong evidence that the planets de, when in certain arrangements, cause: changes in the particular solar radiations that are associ- ated with magnetic storms in the atmosphere of the earth. John Nelson was employed to study sunspots by RCA Com-, munications, the largest shortwave radio communication organt- , zation in the world, because sunspots were believed to be the - cause of magnetic storms which from time to time'would dis- Tupt shortwave radio communications. The shortwave radio industry needed a reliable magnetic storm forecasting service so that advance preparations could be made for these periodic dis- ruptions. (There were steps that could be taken by communica- tions engineers to alleviate the effects of the magnetic storms on the shortwave radio circuits and for this reason a reliable fore- casting service for the industry was needed.) In 1946, when the author was assigned to do research for RCA on this subject no reliable forecasting system existed, although other researchers, both in government and observa- + tories, were working on the problem. Little or no progress was being made, and what forecasting services were available a( that time were not adequate for RCA’s requirements. Therefore it was decided that an. attempt should be made to develop a fore- casting service within the company that would be tailor-made for their own requirements.During the first two year period of intensive, but unreward- ing, sunspot research, 2 two-way mutual assistance program was arranged between RCA Observatory in New York—which housed a very good six-inch refracting telescope—and several ionospheric-magnetic research centers in this country and abroad. This mutual assistance program entailed the exchange of detailed data and also periodic visits between the author and - members of these organizations. The cooperative spirit of assis- tance and data exchange which began in the early period of this research program has continued to the present without inter- ruption. During the International Geophysical Year which began on July J, 1957 and lasted until the end of 1958, the cooperation between RCA Observatory and those several centers of research was far beyond the call of duty on both sides. After about two years of careful research with both sun- spots and magnetic storms Mr. Nelson concluded that sunspots were only a small part of the answer. it was evident to him that some natural forces besides sunspots were in some way involved in the phenomena he was studying. He read everything he could find relating to the subject of sunspots and magnetic storms and came into contact with material that led him to the thought that perhaps the planets, as they circled the sun in their never-ending joumey through space, were a part of the answer. He then tumed to this approach and researched the subject in depth. The results were very gratifying and within a few years he was able to build a: satisfactory. forecasting service for RCA and Numerous other shortwave communications facilities through- out the wosld, based upon 2 study of sunspots combined with planetary interrelationships. This book explains in great detail the methods he used. In April 1951, RCA released to the news media a detailed account ‘of Mr. Nelson's research regarding the planetary posi- tion effect that he had found. This news release generated con- siderable interest among those in the field of astronomy, but with mixed reactions. Some astronomers were favorably impressed while others reacted with skepticism.One prominent astronomer who went to see Mr. Nelson was quite skeptical and typified the astronomers’ opposition. He argued that the planets were too small and too far from the sun to possibly have any effect upon its behavior. Mr. Nelson countered this by saying that he agreed the planets had very little, if any, effect upon the main body of the sun but that they could have considerable effect in the solar atmosphere where sunspots existed. Here, in the very unstable electrified area of the sun’s surface, a very small force from the planets could produce an avalanche effect and create turbulence in the solar atmosphere which resulted in solar storms and sunspots, Mr. Nelson had expected a reaction from the world of astronomy that would be both pro and con but he was totally unprepared for the reaction that came from the world of astrology—this, he says, came as a complete surprise to him. In the January 1974 issue of the Saturday Evening Post there is an article on astrology in‘ which the writer states that with this news release Mr. Neison immediately became the darling of astrologers all over the world. It was not long after the 1951 news 3 release that Nelson.- learned there had been quite a battle going on, between the, astronomers and the astrologers for generations arid that he was right in the middle of it. He decided at this point that he would be friendly and cooperative to both the astronomers and the astrologers and take a neutral stand, a position he has maintained through the years. He has lectured on numerous occasions during the past. 25 years lo astronomers, amateur astronomers, radio engineers, and smateur radio operators. He has also lectured to science classes in both high schools and universities, and to several astrology clubs. (During the question and answer period following one of his lectures to an astrology club he was asked by a reporter if he believed in astrology. He answered that he had never studied astrology and was there- fore not qualified to believe or disbelieve»in the subject.) Probably his most important iecture was to a group of NATO communications engineers and scientists at the Uni- versity of Naples, Italy in May 1961. His trip to Naples wasSPORSOTEU Vy Yui ROM ane tires Mee oe request from NASA asking Mr. Netson to write a a formal paper for ¢elivery at this very important meeting. Mr. Nelson has also written numerous articles describing his work for various technical journals and magazines. He wrote one zrticle for an astrology magazine. The Foundation for the Study of Cycles in 1952 presented Mr. Nelson with a gold medal for his work in the field of radio propagation. The foundation maintains a file on him which con- tains not Only his research material, but letters of commenda- tion from the many people Mr, Nelson has served throughout the world. Because of the well-known success of the forecasting system derived from the planetary position approach, and its usefulness both to astronomers and users of the forecasts, the opposition of the astronomers dropped to negligible proportions after a” few years. Nelson has been under considerable pressure from various gTOups to produce an extensive report’ on his work rather than the periodic progress reports that he has made from. time to time in the. form of formal papers. This book is the Tesuit, and it is hoped that it will generate enough interest in the Subject 10 prompt other researchers to investigate the area farther. Executive Secretary. American Federation of AstrologersFOREWORD Perhaps it is well for me to state at the beginning of this book that I am neither an accredited astronomer nor an astrologer. Frequent reference to solar research and to planetary angles might give the reader the impression that I belong in one or the other of these professions. My own profession, that of shortwave radio propagation analyst, has created this situation. As propagation analyst, it was my duty to forecast magnetic storms which have a profound influence on the behavior of shortwave radio signals. The principal responsibilities assigned to my office were monthly frequency predictions for about 100 RCA shortwave radio circuits scattered throughout the world: . daily, monthly, and sometimes yearly forecasts Of shortwave ~ radio signal qualities, as well as keeping careful records of both signal qualities and frequency behavior. The records were necessary for research purposes with a view toward both developing the forecasting system and improving frequency utilization. ] had to use both sunspots and planets to do this. Magnetic storms have their origin on the surface of the sun and are usually associated with sunspots. Therefore it was- necessary for me to engage in sunspot research in order to carry on my duties. This is close to astronomy. Early in this research program, I determined by careful correlation that sunspot activity, the behavior of shortwave radio signals, and certain ‘angular planetary arrangements were interrelated in such a manner that it was possible to predict the behavior of shortwave radio signals by studying the angles made between the planets as * they cireled the sun, This is close to astrology.The research was productive in both of the aforementioned ries and continued for the full 25 years that I held this with sunspots, using a six inch refracting telescope led on the roof of the central radio office building located in Gowntown Manhattan. From 1946 until 1948 sunspots were carefully studied and correlated with both shortwave radio sig- nal qualities and changes in frequency behavior, but the results were discouraging. There was strong evidence that natural forces other than just sunspots were involved. During 1949, 1 incorpo- heliocentric planetary positions into the program, and by combining sunspot research with planetary position research, I began to make important progress. . Year by year refinements in both sunspot research and the study of certain planetary arrangements gradually produced a forecasting system of quite high reliability. How this was done is the subject of this book.CHAPTER 1 Introduction to Sunspots, the Ionosphere and Shortwave Radio Sunspots were first observed in a systematic manner (by telescope) about 200 years ago and since that time have been a source of wonderment to both professional astronomers and laymen. This situation hasn’t changed much, although today with the development of highly sophisticated instrumentation and years and years of research we do know’a great'deal about, them. We do not know why the sun has spots on it; and we do- not know for certain what a sunspot really is. However, We fiavé - learned much about the behavior of sunspots ‘and how they manifest their existence by causing changes inthe ‘magnetic field and in the ionosphere which surrourids our earth. We know that they discharge electromagnetic particles into outer space and that when these particles impinge upon the magnetic field of the earth, the ionosphere becomes disturbed, which in turn creates a disturbance in shortwave radio communications throughout the world, usually referred to as a magnetic storm. Severe magnetic storms not only affect the ionosphere but also cause earth currents in old-fashioned undersea cables, and in telegraph lines and power transmission lines. So we see that «sunspots actually do have an effect on the life of man upon this earth, We know that sunspots come in cycles and that the princi-. pal cycles are approximately 11 and 22 years. But there are shorter cycles and longer cycles, both of which modulate the regular cycles causing them to -be either higher or lower than normal. We also know that sunspots have a polarity, and thatthe sunspot which leads a group in the northern hemisphere will have the opposite polarity of a simifar group in the southern hemisphere. And we know that when one cycle dies out and the next cycle begins, the sunspots in each hemisphere will reverse their polarities. We do nor know why this happens. The sun rotates upon its axis in relation to the earth once in 37.28 days, and as it rotates, it carries spots into view at its eastem edge (limb). J have observed spots on the extreme easter edge of the sun on numerous occasions using the RCA sixinch telescope with a 100 power eyepiece. On several occasions there was a “nick,” shaped like the letter V, or a half-oval depression on the edge of the sun while the spot was in this favorable position for such a view. This indicates that some sunspots are actually holes in the outermost gaseous layer of the sun's envelope, quite probably a vortex caused by whirling fas similar to a tornado on earth. | have never reported this in any past literature or lecture because it was so obvious that [ assumed others had also seen it; however, | have not found reference to this in any of the books or articles | have read. So, from my ‘own experience, | will state that at least some sunspots are holes in the yisible surface of the sun. There is considerable variation in the size of sunspots. Some are barely visible pinholes while others are super-giants measur- ing from, 80,000 to 100,000 miles Jong and 40,000 to 50,000 miles wide. The small spots are mostly wrabra with very little penembrs. The giants are mostly penumbra interspersed With several dark umbral areas. The majority of sunspots are between - these two extremes but vary greatly in appearance; rarely are two alike except in the cases of single spots which are known as umipolars. These unipolars may appear for a week of More, exhibiting 0 apparent change. The groups, on the other hand, show day to day changes, some increasing in size, others decreasing until they are finally so smal! that they can no longer be seen. The length of time that an individual sunspot exists also varies widely, with some lasting only one or two days while Others exist for several solar rotation periods. Now to bring sunspots and shortwave radio together. Due to 10the fact that severe shortwave radio blackouts have been reported in the news media from time to time—in sometimes dramatic fashion—sunspots have been given a bad name. The truth of the matter is that they are actually very beneficial to shortwave radio and there is only an occasional maverick spot that causes istuble. The efficiency of shortwave radio would be considerably impaired if sunspots were taken away from us entirely. The reason for this is as follows: Sunspots radiate strongly in ultraviolet light, which is the principal radiation from the sun that creates and sustains our ionosphere. Without it, the ionosphere would be weak and we would have to use frequencies much lower than those we do use for long distance communications. The usable frequency spec- trum would become very narrow and the thousands of radio circuits now operating between 3 and 30MC (Megicycles) would be forced into a much narrower band, possibly between 3 and 10MC. This would create untenable crowding which would.- result in an interference problem of major proportions. So, in the shortwave communication industry, we say “We like sun- spots.” It is just that occasional maverick we do not like. © The ionosphere. is the highway surrounding the earth in all directions, under which our shortwave signals travel. Without it, shortwave communications would be limited to short distances. It is electrical in nature and has the ability to reflect shortwave signals (on the proper frequency) back to the earth where they can be picked up on an antenna. Our ionosphere varies greatly in density since its very exis- tence is dependent upon sunlight. Where sunlight is strong and prolonged, the ionosphere is strong. Where sunlight is weak or non-existent, the ionosphere is weak. The strong ionosphere of the daylight portion of the earth's surface will reflect back to earth the higher frequencies of the 3 to 30MC band. Conversely, on the nightside of the earth, the ionosphere is weak and will not reflect the higher frequencies so we have to alter our fre- quencies (o a lower part of the band. The best communication is attained by altering our frequencies throughout the day and night in such a manner as to match this daily change. The heightof the ionosphere we use for long distance communications is approximately 200 miles. In addition to the amount of sunlight changing the density of the ionosphere, we have other variables; the principal one of which is the sunspot. | mentioned previously that sunspots. radiate very strongly in ‘ultraviolet light, and that ultraviolet Plays a very important part in the creation of the ionosphere. Thus it is seen that when there are but few sunspots, or no sunspots at all, the ionosphere will be weaker than when there afe many sunspots. There is an | J-year cycle in sunspots which produces an } 1-year cycle in the strength of the ionosphere. ‘There are short-term changes in sunspot abundance and these also must be taken into consideration by the propagation analyst due to their influence upon the choice of frequencies. The size of 2 sunspot has very little to do with its disturbance-producing potential. This is what misled me during the early days of my research. I did not realize that the gigantic Spots were & source of abundant ultraviolet radiation and that this radiation was actually producing a strong stable ionosphere that was beneficial to the shortwave signals. Some of the large * Spots were associated with disturbances, but most often the: disturbances came from new, smaller, very active spots: . T also learned by experimentation that there were two “pre- ferred” zones of location on the'sun from whence a sunspot had its greatest destructive potential, The first zone discovered was in the form of a semi-circle just east of the sun’s central vertical meridian. This zone was about 30 degrees wide. Several years later, during the International Geophysical Year, I delineated another similar zone that appears to be 25 to.30 degrees wide * on the extreme western edge of the sun. These zones were found to de quite reliable during the high parts of the past two sunspot cycles (which came in 1958 and 1969) but have been found to be less reliable during the inter- mediate parts of these cycles. During the extreme low parts of sunspot cycles, severe magnetic storms can and do take place with no visible spots on the sun at all. Fortunately these storms are predictable by the planetary arrangement technique out- 12lined in detail later in this book. * There are other important variables too numerous and intri- cate to mention here. For those who wish further information on either the subject of sunspots or shortwave radio, | suggest a visit to your local library. My purpose here is to give you the highlights of the subject so that you can better understand the following chapters. A complete knowledge of either sunspots or shortwave radio would require years of study and experimenta- tion. Both are very complex subjects. PREQUENC’? |N MEGACYCLES. M 4A 8A N oP OP OM Mo4a SANG OP OM JANUARY 1954 JANUARY 1953 ‘ZERO SUNSPOTS 203 SUNSPOTS . MOST USEFUL FREQUENCY SPREAD COMPARED WITH SUNSPOT COUNT IN E.S.T. Figare 1. Chere showing the monthly everoge of optimum working frequencies between New York end Central Europe at sunspot minimum and sunspot maximum, Note thé considerable difference in useful requency ranges between the two periods, .Meanwhile, you can conduct a simple test on your ordinary home AM radio that will show you the very considerable effect tha: sunlight has on a zadio signal. The frequencies used on the ordinary broadcast band are very much lower than those used ig distance communications. These lower frequencies are subject to suntight absorption to a much greater extent than are those used on shortwave. During the night hours, a broadcast Station can cover a great area but after sunrise the station fades out. Usually it is no longer audible after it travels for about 100 miles, but this distance can vary somewhat depending upon the power of the transmitter. At about 10:00 or 11:00 pm local time, tune in a distant city broadcast station and note the quality of the signal. Then shut the receiving set off. Leave the dial as it is. At 10:00 or 11:00 am the next day turn the set on again. You will notice that the signal you heard so well the night before is no longer there, or if it is there, it is very weak. During the winter months, when sunlight is not strong, the signals will travel greater distances both day and night. On the other hand, the frequencies used for international Satellite communiéations are very, very much higher than those used on either ordinary broadcasting stations or on shortwave radio stations. These extremely high frequencies are not subject * to interference from sunspots, and they pass through the iono- sphere as if it were.not there. They can work at fantastic speeds with excellent reliability. During the 1960s decade, long dis- tance international communications were rapidly shifted from shoriwave to satellites, until now practically all the important long distance circuits are on satellites worldwide. . This high performance capability of the satellites has naturally reduced the importance of forecasting but it hes not reduced the importance of research to find out why the phenomena | have been studying and writing about take place. For instance, what makes a sunspot become a maverick and change rapidly from a quiet beneficial spot into a disturbing desteuctive sunspot? The research | have been engaged in for. the past 25 years indicates very strongly that planetary interrela- tionships have something to do with it. My interest in thissubject: has compeltcd me to continue this research and now, almost five years after my formal retirement from the commer- cial world of radio, { find myself as enthusiastic as ever. | heve a six-inch reflecting telescope at home with which | continu to watch the day-to-day changes in sunspots. I have a good short- wave receiver with which I continue to listen to distant stations and record their day-to-day changes in quality. | have continued to forecast on a consultant basis for several communications centers throughout the world. It is a fascinating field of research, Even after the many, many years that I have been involved in this subject, I find chat there are many new things to learn. No two sunspots are alike, No two combinations of planets are alike~consequently there are new things to learn almost every day. Today, | work almost entirely with what I have classified as Simultaneous Multiple Harmonic Relations involving several planets. These relaiion- ships cannot repeat exactly in thousands and thousands of years. when four, five, or six planets are involved. { have no solid theory to expiain what I have observed, but the similarity between an electric generator with’ its carefully placed magnets and, the sun with its ever-changing planets fs intriguing. In the generator, the magnets are fixed and produce a constant electrical current. If we consider that the planets are Magnets and the sun is the armature, we have a considerable _ similarity to the generator. However, in this case, the magnets are moving. For this reason, the electrical-magnetic stability of the solar system varies widely. This is what one would expect. _ Ashortwave radio signal is objective and convenient because ~ it is very sensitive to changes in solar radiation characteristics. It produces an overall evaluation of the ionosphere, which tells us in this manner what is taking place on the sun. Thus we can trace the observed changes in the-signals to their fundamenta)_ causes, which my research has led me to believe lies in the ever-changing arrangements of the planets around the sun. 4SCHAPTER 2 "Barly Research Period When the chief engineer of RCA Communications decided easly in 1946 that it would be a good plan for RCA to have its own forecasting department, he decided at the same time thet the man chosen to manage the project should be well experi- enced in shortwave signal behavior and also know enough about astronomy to-get the project started. I had by that time accum- ulated almost 25 years of experience in radio, both long-wave and short-wave, and had been in supervisory work for over 15 . years, An added advantage was that I had been an ‘amateur : “astronomer since grammiar school and owned a sixtinth reflect- ” ing telescope that I had made myself in 1931. In April 1946 I was formally transferred from supirvisory duties to Solar Research and given the title of Propagation Analyst. A short time later I was provided with a very good sixinch refracting telescope housed in a suitable observatory located on the roof of our central radio office in downtown Manhattan. Many, many thousands of radiograms passed through this central radio office every day coming from and _ going to the four comers of the world. 1 was charged with the responsibility of developing a forecasting service based upon the observation and study of sunspots and the analysis of short- wave signal behavior under various sunspot conditions. That is how it all began. The first few months of research showed that there was a definite correlation between the number of spots on the sun and the changes in frequency behavior on transatlantic short-wave radio circuits. This was valuable information but not what 1 was actually searching for; 1 was primarily interested in 17finding something on the sun that would be reliable for the prediction of low quality signals. Although low quality signals _ and below normal frequency requirements go hand in hand in many cases, there are also many cases where the frequencies will rop to below normal but the signals will continue to be of 20rmal quality. Days of this nature came to be known as low frequency days, , Finding a correlation between low quality signals and sun- spots was-more difficult. When this research program was started, the sun was changing from the low sunspot number period of 194445 to the high sunspot number period of 1947-'48 and there were so many spots on the sun that it was very difficult to decide which sunspot was causing the low quality signals. This had to be established before forecasts could ‘be made with any degree of confidence. The first step towards the solution of this problem was made when we devised a map of the sun that showed solar iongitude and latitude as viewed from the earth. The method was slightly different from the method we usé to make a map of the earth. For the equator of the sun we used the optical equator, which i$ actually ‘the ecliptic. The real equator of the sun can vary from this line by several degrees throughout the year. North and south of the equator was then divided into 15 degree intervals. The lines of longitude were adjusted in such a way as to depict the distance a sunspot would move from east. to west in one earth day. The.gua zotates upon its own axis in relation to the sarth once in 27-28:devsend this. motion caries a sunspot from east to west, approximately 13 degrees per day. The positions of the visible sunspots were mapped each day and filed. One blank map was affixed to a drawing board and Used as a master map, Each day low quality signals appeared, a black dot was placed on this master map showing the position of each sunspot or sunspot group the sun carried that day. Over 2 period of a few months, this master map became covered with dots but distinctly showed-a concentration of dots in one par- ticular area—just what } was lookisig for. The area of interest delineated by the black dots on the‘The author demonstrating how sunspots are projected onto.e s0ler mop. master map occupied a zone just east of the north-south central vertical meridian of the sun and ‘subsequent refinement placed the center of-this-cone atthe optical center of the sun as.seen from_the earth. The zone of interest measured about 26-40-30" degrees north, east, and south of the optical center of the sun. This 26-30 degree semi-circle was referred to as the “critical: zone” and became the foundation for the development of a forecasting technique based upon sunspots. It required aboul one year of research to establish this zone, and it is gratifying to be able to state that even now (1974) this zone is still valuable. aHowever, the establishment of this critical zone actually created other problems, It did not take long to learn that sun- spots had distinct “personalities.” Some were plus spots with a particular characteristic that improved signal qualities, some were minus spots with a characteristic that degraded signal qualities; some did nothing perceptible at all. So, the new prob- lem that the critical zone generated was that a method had to be devised to indicate ahead of time which Personality each sunspot was endowed with. Further research helped to solve this problem, to. ‘some degree but not to the point where forecasts could be issued with a high level of confidence. By carefully analyzing major devi- ations from normal signals, it was found that Jarge old sunspots with an extensive area of penumbra wese often the plus spots. New, smaller, but very active spots with a minimum of penumbra and very sharply defined umbra were very often the sinus spots. This new knowledge helped considerably and { finally launched into a daily forecasting service. The forecast issued each day at about noontime was based upon an analysis of three items ‘of importance: sunspots, current signal qualities, and current frequency behavior. The signal qualities and frequency characteristics of the day were determined at 10:00 a.m. EST on transatlantic signals because that hour is the best time. of the day for signals from the European area. From these three items, which were carefully analyzed and compared with previous records, a forecast was constructed for the following night and day. These’ forecasts attained an accuracy of about 65 to 70 percent but this was not adequate for our requirements, An accuracy in the neighbor- hood of 85 percent was needed, During the winter of 1949 I. came to the conclusion that natural phenomena other than sunspots alone were playing an important part in this program. We had to find out what these phenomena were in order to improve the forecasting accuracy to an acceptable level. At this time I learned that some astrono- mers and meteorologists had conducted research on past sun- spot cycles, endeavoring to determine if the gravitational pull of 20the piancts on the sun had anything to do with the cyche behavior of numbers of sunspots. Books and papers written by several researchers were studied. Two books, one by Ellsworth Huatington, and one by Henry Helm Clayton were found at the New York public library and proved to be very helpful. Also material by Fernando Sanford, and by Mrs. Maunder were studied. Some remarks in Dr. Harlan True Stetson’s book Sunspots in Action lent further credence to the theory that the gravitational pull of the planets did have an influence upon sunspot numbers. The works of these pioneers were sufficiently convincing to urge me into similar research. Eventually J came to the further conclusion that if the planets could influence the sunspot cycles, they also could have an influence upon individual sunspot groups and cause.them to become active when certain planetary arrange- ments took place. The research of these early investigators concemed itself primarily with conjunctions and oppositions of the planets in relation to the sun. In other words, the center of their circle was the sun itself. This is known as heliocentric planetary astron- omy. Since | was interested in what was happening on the-sun, . this of course was the procedure I also chose to follow. A egnjunction takes place when two planets are lined up on’ the same side of the sun; an opposition, when the two planets are on opposite sides of the sun. The early researchers were study- ing the gravitational influence the planets had on the sun, so these two positions were the logical approach to the problem. Before going into the details of planetary configurations and their ultimate effect upon the ionosphere and shortwave radio signals, it seems wise to me to discuss some of the variabilities . imposed upon the ionosphere by solar radiations. (There is a great deal more to the subject than just the amount of sunlight that falls upon any particular area of the Earth's surface.) First of all, there is the daily change in the length of day- light or darkness. This, we know, varies with latitude. At the equator, daylight and darkness are almost exactly 12 hours each throughout all four seasons, regardless of whether the sun is 2hnorth of the equator, south of the equator, or directly over- head. The equator is the only place on the earth where this is true, As we move north or south of the equator, this character- istic changes according to latitude. At the north pole the day is 24 hours long in summer and the ionosphere is bathed in con- tinuous sunlight. In the winter the night is 24 hours long and the ionosphere is in continuous darkness. These periods of the year are, of course, associated with the summer and the winter solstices. The rate of change from daylight to darkness and from darkness to daylight, varies with the seasons of the year for any particular latitude. The rate of change is most rapid near the equinoxes and slowest near the solstices in the North Atlantic area of 60 degrees tatitude, which is of particular concern to us. as we will leam later. . . ‘The rapidity of the daily change, has a direct bearing upon the stability of ‘the ionosphere at any given point upon the earth’s surface. During March and September, the months of the vernal and autumnal equinoxes respectively, the change is so - rapid that at sunset- and dawn on the North-Atlantic path a shortwave radio circuit must alter frequencies to match the strength of the ionosphere three, and sometimes four, times within @ few hours. This event is also prominent during the months each side of March and September, Under normal sun- spot and magnetic conditions these frequency transitions take place smoothly and with a minimum of interruption to the communication channels, Under subnornial conditions fre- quency transitions can be chaotic, These are the times of day when low quality signals are most frequent. Research through- out the years has shown that, on the average, magnetic storms are most severe during these months. During the summer and winter solstice periods these prob- lems are greatly alleviated. Throughout some parts of the t1- year sunspot cycle it is possible to communicate with Europe for the full 24 hours of the summer day using only one fre- quency, and only two during the winter. Shostwave radio signals are much better during the summer than they are during 22the winter, and are at their worst during the equinoxes through- out all parts of the 1 l-year cycle. Shortwave radio signals—in fact all radio signals—travel over the surface of the Earth in a straight line. That is, they auto- matically select the shortest distance between the transmitter and the receiver. The shortest distance is, of course, the great circle path between these two points. Between New York and Europe, the great circle path passes over the North Atlantic. This area is not only the location of great meteorological storms but is also subject to great magnetic storms. A shortwave signal destined for Europe leaves New York on an antenna that is especially designed to beam the signal zlong that particular great circle path. In Europe, the’ receiving antenna is also especially designed to receive signals along this path, Due to the curvature of the Earth's surface-and the height of the ionosphere above it, the first contact that a transmitted signal makes with the ionosphere is about 2000 KM in a north- easterly direction. It is then reflected from the Jqwer boundary” of the ionosphere and thence down. to the surtace -of the” ocean, Here, the surface of the ocean: tums it again back to the ionosphere about 2000 KM further along the path. These “hops” of reflections take place three or four times betwéen the trans- mitter and the receiver. If the lower boundary of the ionosphere is relatively smooth and stable, the signal proceeds along its route in a normal manner and provides good reception at the distant terminal. However, the lower boundary is not always,smooth. During magnetic storms it can become badly distorted and thus hap- hezerdly seatter the radio signal energy so badly at each contact that finally there is very little, or nothing left of the signal. ‘Under these circumstances we have what is usually referred to as a radio disturbance. These disturbances can be mild, moder- ate, or severe depending upon the amount of turbulence at the point of contact. lonospheric absorption which further weakens the signals can also take place under these circumstances. Charged particles, scattered throughout the upper atmosphere, absorb the energy of the radio signal much in the same manner 23. that ground fog absorbs the light from the headlights ofa car at night. The gseat circle path between these two continents passes over the North Atlantic close to the SOth and 60th parallels of latitude. This area is referred to as the North Auroral Zone because the greatest number of visible auroras takes place at these latitudes. The zone is about 15 to 20 degrees wide and is approximately circular, with its center on the magnetic north pole of the earth. The circle passes over the North Atlantic, over northern Canada, across Alaska, and thence through northern Siberia. Even a moderate aurora can stop a shortwave signal either by atmospheric—i.e., ionospheric—absorption, or by scattering the signal to parts of the world other than its intended destination. Auroras take place with magnetic storms and are actually a part of the phenomenon. The basic cause of a Magnetic storm and its concomitant aurora are traceable to solar activity. Great circle paths which are south of this zone are affected to a lesser degree in the cases of great magnetic storms. Com- munication engineers were quick to realize this and found that by using more southerly routes they could set up relay points over which messages could pass with a minimum of interrup- tion. During the 1930s decade it was found that automatic relays could be set up at Buenos Aires and at Rio de Janeiro to Channel signals at high speed between’ New York and any European communications center. Here we have a case in which, while the relatively short great circle path between New York and Europe was unworkable, the very much longer great circle path connecting New York to these South American Points and the even longer great circle path between South America and Europe would handle high speed messages with In the 1940s it was learned that North Africa was also an excellent relay point, and a permanent relay was constructed at ‘Tangier, Morocco, with sufficient equipment to take care of all Europe, the Near East, and India. This was man’s answer to the aurora and is an excellent example of the old adage, “If you 24can’t go through it—go around it.” - : One might ask at this point, “What causes the ‘auroral zone?” and “Why does the auroral zone permit shortwave sig- nals to pass through in a perfectly normal manner for several days or weeks, and then suddenly change its characteristics in such a manner as to be a barrier for the signals?” A great deal of scientific research indicates that the mag- netic field of the earth is very strong over both the north mag- netic pole and the south magnetic pole, and extends for thousands of miles out into space. Electrically charged particles emanating from active solar areas are pulled into the Earth’s atmosphere by this strong attraction as they pass the Earth. When these particles spiral downward through the atmosphere, they disrupt the ionosphere. This causes both an ionospheric storm and a magnetic storm. Further down in the atmosphere these particles collide with the atoms of rare gases and from that collision we get the glew-of the-aurore. Incidently, there are also daytime auroras but these are not visible to the eye. The truly “great” magnetic storms are nearly always associ- ated with majer selew@ares which take place near very active: sunspots. But let us not be misled here and think that just’ because there is a flare on the sun, even a great flare, that there will-aiso be a magnetic storm. Shortwave'radio has experienced hundreds of important solar flares that were not followed by magnetic storms. Whether or not a flare will be followed by a magnetic storm depends upon other factors. One of these is the location of the sunspot that produced the flage.‘Fhe chances of - a Slare causing a magnetic storm are greater if the flare takes place—neer_or_-within-the-eforomentioned-eritieal-zones-on-the sun. Another factor is that there must also be ‘a significant planetary arrangement. When all three of thése factors are present at the same time, the chances that a flare will be followed by a magnetic storm are very high. My present fore- casting technique is based upon this principle. Flare intensities have 3 wide range, varying from insignifi- cant or barely visible to major. Sometimes there are hundreds of smait insignificant flares during a month which, instead of being 25This & the first atlerfiare ever photographed by cn astrosaut from e spacecroft. Taken on Jane 15, 1973, {tt reproduced from one of the frames of flight fim recovered from the Hydrogen Alpha Telescope No, 1. There are two HA telescopes on ATM (Apolo Telescope Mount) which are used by the astronauts to guide the mab ultraviolet end X-ray telescope 10 precixe targets on the Sun, One of these telescozex provides « photographic record of the soler disc et the exact time of ATM experiments for loter dete analysis, Both telescopes provide TY displays of the Sun to the astronauts on board Skylab, At the time of this flere, there wer an opposition between Earth and Saturn at the same tiote there was one between Venus end Mors, with the twa oppositions 45 degree: apart and Venus at perihelion.damaging to the Earth’s ionosphere, are actually heipful. T= small flares are producing ultraviolet light in sufficient quazity to be beneficial to the ionosphere instead of destructive. A: we can see from the foregoing discussion of the various phenorsna associated with the sun and radio, we have a topic thet is very puzzling and difficult to understand fully. As we move into the planetary position aspect of ihis work, we find that even greater puzzles await us. The third chester will begin with a planetary position analysis of the grezrest shortwave radio blackout in history. This disturbance began on the afternoon of March 23, 1940 and lasted for severel days, 1 selected this event for my first attempt to correlate the pisne- tary positions with poor signals because if the planets wers in any way involved, something significant should appz2r in chis case. It turned out to be a veritable goldmine of information— actually a planetary position Rosetta Stone. 27CHAPTER 3 ~ The Search for Angles Starting out with no preconceived notions as to what I was going to find in the realm of heliocentric planetary angular relationships, I decided that the most logical approach to the problem for a beginner would be to calculate the angles that acteally existed during some of the past important radio dis- turbanoes and magnetic storms. I had excellent records going - back to the late 1920s—records that not only indicated which, _ dates had disturbances; but also in many cases gave, the.e exact hour that the disturbances began. . The greatest radio blackout on recoid was found io be Easter Sunday, March 23, 1940. It was preceded by about ten days of unusually good radio signals. (Incidently, I learned dur- ing later research that this characteristic in signal qualities was quite common during the period just preceding an important disturbance, probably due to an excess. of ultraviolet which strengthened the ionosphere.) The magnetic storm began abruptly in the late afternoon and almost instantly wiped out all European signals. The signals did not return until the day- light hours of the 27th. Several solar flares took place during _ this period, indicating that there was a very active sunspot in existence. Stesms. that begin.as abruptly as this one are known as “sudden: commencement storms” in today’s terminology. They are caused by the arrival of a shower of protons emanating from a very active sunspot and usuaily follow a great solar flare. Armed with the data pertaining to this great storm and several lesser storms of the 5940s, I returned to the New York public library to find out what planetary angles existed during 29these periods. Heliocentric planetary positions are recorded in the American Ephemeris and Nautical Almanac, published yearly by the US Naval Observatory, and from this book one can obtain tht exact heliocentric longitude of any planet for each dzy of the year. The library had the almanacs back to the mid-1850s. Using a simple three-inch protractor compass, J laid out the heliocentric position of each planet from Mercury to Saturn on a piece of ordinary typewriting paper, placing zero degrees of the protractor on zero degrees of heliocentric longitude. Zero degrees heliocentric Jongitude is the position in space occupied by the center of the sun on the date. of the Vernal Equinox, which is always near March 21st and heralds the beginning of spring for the northem hemisphere each year. It is astronomi- cally known as “the first point of Aries” and varies by an infinitesimal amount each year. This point in space, zero degrees heliocentric longitude, is the point from which the position of all planets is derived. A planet which is 45 degrees from this point on any given date would be listed as having heliocentric longitude 45 degrees for that date. 1 did not know the official symbol for each planet so ¥ numbered them in order of their distance from the sun with Mercury-1, Venus-2, Earth-3, Mars-4, Jupiter-5, Saturn-6. There are Of course three more planets beyond Satum but I did not conceive that these three, Uranus, Neptune, and Pluto, could have any influence on the subject that 1 was investigating because of their great distance from the sun. This decision was a grave miateke-as I learned a few years later. When the planetary diagram for this period of disturbance was completed, | noted that Mercury and Jupiter had been in opposition (180 degrees) on March 22nd and Mercury and Saturn had been in opposition on March 26th. On March 24th, 2 day during which no signals were heard all day, | found Venus to be 90 degrees ahead of Saturn. The [80 degree angles on Mercury, and the 90 degree angles on Venus immediately drew my attention because the 180 degree angle was one of the angles that the early investigators of planetary arrangements and 30sunspot cycles had used. Furthermore, 180 degrees is twice 90 degrees, which was the other angle attached to Venus ducing this period. Catching a fish this dig on my fisst try fired my enthusizsm, and | then investigated the other disturbed dates | had brought with me. In each case F found that Mercury, Venus, Earth, or Mars was making.a conjunction (O degrees), a square (90 degrees), or an opposition (180 degrees) with-some other planet during the disturbance. These angles were labelled significant and special attention was then devoted to them in the investiga- tion of other disturbances. Several more trips were made to the New York public library to investigate other disturbances. The significant angles of O degrees, 90 degrees, and 180 degrees were prominent in every disturbance that was tested. The four inner planets. Mercury, Venus, Earth and Mars, were considered as fast planets and Jupiter end Satur as slow planets. On this basis, a rule was, set up that required one of the fast planets to bein a significert relation to one of the. slow planets, or a significant relation could take place between any: two of the fast planets. Such relationships were then deemed “critical” and an.attempt was made to try this system in actual forecasting. I now had a “critical zone” on the sun.for sunspots and a “critical arrange- ment” in space for the planets. This was a big step forward but I did not delude myself into thinking that these two items alone would solve all! my problems. I knew by then that I was dealing with a very whimsical opponent and much hard work lay in the - future. Wisely, it was first decided to combine this new knowledge with that which had been used formerly rather than to rely entirely on the critical planetary angles. The new technique: was thus composed of sunspot observations, ionospheric analysis, and the arrangements of the planets calculated on a day-by-day basis. The necessary American Ephernieris and Nautical Almanac for the period was acquired, and the new method put into operation, This was during fate 1949 and early 1950, Concurrent with the inauguration of this new technique, an 31extensive research program was started which entailed the calcu- lation’ of all the critical planetary angles made between Mercury, Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter, and Saturn for a five-year period on a day-by-day basis. For each of these days, the quality of the signals was also extracted from the records and correlated with the selected angles. ‘The results of this lengthy research program confirmed my previous observations that conjunctions, squares, and opposi- tions were allied to low quality signals and magnetic storms. There was, however, one very disconcerting result: a eritical arrangement of the planets was not always associated with a magnetic ston. There was a difference between these various configurations of the planets. Some would work and some would fait. In other words, these planetary configurations had a “personality” similar to those found in sunspot research. I had to find out what the differences were before I could be on safe ground. Further testing brought forth the knowledge that the chances of ‘2 disturbance were greater if thers were three or mere planets interrelated at thése angles on the same day. An example would be planets 1 and 5 at 90 degrees from one another while plane.2 was either 0 degrees or 180 degrees from either one of them. This test came out so well that a forma! paper was written on the subject in 1952 dealing only with these. particular combinations between Mercury, Venus, and Jupiter. The term mudsiple configuretion was coined to differen- tiate these configurations from others, and became part of my terminology henceforth. ‘The use of multiples added significantly to the accuracy of. the forecasts. However, this was not the end of my difficulties because some of the multiples would be associated with more severe disturbances than others. The reason for this discrepancy had to be found. Refining the system further to overcome this took several years of very intensive research. The solar system was put together in a much more intricate manner than the easy-to-use 0-90-5180 degree angles with which I began had indicated. 32ar RCA News photograph, released April 12, 1951, demonstrcting © significant plantetary grouping which would coincide with a severe magnetic storm. Concurrent with the development of the multiples refine- ment, I decided to try out another angle i thought might be of importance. This was the 120 degree angle, which of course is one-third of the 360 degree circle. The 90 degree angle was one-fourth and the 180 degree angle was one-half, so why not try out the one-third? . The 120 degree angle produced another surprise. When this angle occurred between just two planets and there was no 90 or 180 degree angle attached to either of them, there was a tendency for the signals to be normal or above normal inquality, and the best frequencies would also be above normal. However, if either of the two planets at 120 degrees was, on the same day, separated by 90 or 180 degrees from a third planet, there would often be a decline in signal quatity and frequency behavior, Furthermore, if the two planets at-120 degrees were also associated with one of the standard multiples previously mentioned, there was a strong tendency for the disturbance to be increased. Following this experiment with the 120 degree angle, I decided to test the 6@-degree angle of one-half of 120 or one- sixth of the full circle. This angle showed the same character- istios 2 the 120 degree angle but to a lesser degree, This indicated to me that hasmonics (even multiples of angles) could be playing a part in the entire phenomenon and led me into the investigation of other angles besides the 0-90-180 degree group. “This particular part of my research program, however, was not sufficiently advanced to be included in my first formal paper which appeared in‘the March 1951 issue of The RCA Review * entitled “Shortwave Radio Propagation Correlation with Plane- tary Positions” but did appear in later papers. It required many years of research to unravel the influence of harmonics. At this point, I would like to interject a statement designed to prevent a possible misunderstanding. From a scientific stand- point, it is not proper for me to say that J think these particular planetary arrangements are causing the events that [ have been + discussing. I have ‘no proof that they are causing either good or bad signals because my research has not produced any physical evidence. It is therefore more proper to say that these planetary ‘arrangements coincide with, or are associated with, the changes in the signals and in the magnetic ficld of the Earth. Let this be understood. Perhaps some future investigator will find a-cause and effect relationship. In the meantime, I see no reason why this system shouldn't be used for forecasting purposes since © many years of practice has shown me that it does work. During the winter of 1950 and 1951 1 prepared my first paper On this subject. It appeared in the RCA Review, a techni- ca! journa) published by RCA Laboratories, Princeton, NewJersey, that is largely devoted to the dissemination of new knowledge in connection with research. The next chapter will deal with the impact this paper had on both the scientific and the non-scientific worlds—and on my own work. Suffice it to say that the entire course of my profes- sional life was changed rather abruptly.CHAPTER 4 The Search for Harmonics Refinements The RCA Review paper received worldwide publicity ia the form of an official press release by RCA. The story was carried by numerous newspapers, magazines, radio, and television pro- grams in both this country and Europe.* Mail became very heavy within a week or two and continued that way for several years. Many visitors, both scientific and non-scientific, came to see me to discuss the subject in depth. Some offered sugges- tions, others just wanted more information, | was surprised to lear that there was such a widespread interest in this field... About two months later, Jack Clark, a short-wave eommuni- cations engineer in New York, telephoned to tell |me that he had been testing the angles mentionéd in my paper. He told me that his findings confirmed by statements but that the results would be improved if all the planets were used instead of only the first six, i.c., Mercury to Saturn. Taking his advice, 1 then edded Uranus, Neptune, and Pluto into the system. This complicated my technique considerably because of the additional angles that I had to isolate and analyze: However, it definitely brought about an improvement in forecasting accuracy and explained several mysteries that had been bothering me. The advantages obtained by using all nine planets instead of the original six far outweighed the disadvantages caused by the extra work. | further tested these three most distant planets by incorporating ‘This news retease appears as an appendix at the end of this book, 37their positions inte the original six charts that | had mode for my initial experiment The results were quite striking as wit be seen from the following dicusssion pertaining lo these particular diagrams. Officit US. Nery photograph, Febrwery 16, 1956.Before we go into the fine-grained aspects of this work, which will deal with the various—and numerous—harmonics, let us again return to that famous magnetic storm of Easter Sunday, March 23, 1940. This storm is of major importance because had the analysis not come out as it did, it is quite possible I would have abandoned the’ subject then and there. This would have been a very grave error because J am quite sure I could not have survived very long as a forecaster if | were forced to rely only upon telescopic observations of the sun and its spots! Prior to testing the planets, J was of the opinion that if they had any connection with magnetic storms, something unusual and’ definite should certainly be in evidence with this storm. Fortunately there was, and this success led me to test severat other storms. : ‘The various planetary arrangements associated with these magnetic storms are shown in Figures | to VI in a manner that is similar to that which | used for my very first experiment. It can be seen at first glance that the angles I have mentioned wére prominent and eye-catching. However as my tecknique became more and more refined in later years, [ learned ‘that these original drawings showed but’a small part of the picture indeed, The positions of the planets in all of these diagrams is shown in the heliocentric frame of reference, which means that the sun is in the center of the circle. 39oe FIGURE 1 Date: March 23rd, 1940 Remarks: Severe magnetic storm from March 23rd to March 27th. : . : . This diagram shows us that Mercury is in opposition to Jupiter followed a few days later by an opposition to Saturn plus a square to Venus, whilst Venus was square to Saturn. This involved four planets; but when Uranus, Neptune, and Pluto are added to the diagram we find that Venus was in conjunction to Pluto and Mars was square to Neptune. With the addition of these three most distant planets we find that actually seven of thé sun’s nine planets took part in this configuration. The full nine planet diagram is shown in Fig. 11, and careful examination of this shows us further that Jupiter was very close to perihelion and Venus also was close to perihelion. Research throughout the following years showed us that if-e-pienet is at perihelion at the it configuration with other time-tt-comes-into~en-impontant « planets; the disturbance will ofien-be-intensified. (Perihelion is that point in space during which the planet passes elosest to the sun.) The short line marked O HL represents zero degrees helio- centric longitude. The point where all the lines meet represents the sun.FIGURE Ll March 23, 1940 4)FICURE Ili . Daie: August 4th, 1941 Remarks: Severe disturbance August 4th and Sth. From this diagram it is immediately apparent that Mars is square to Jupiter, but this is not the whole picture. Mercury, moving six degrees per day at this: part of its orbit, also made a “square with Mars whilst it was in conjunction with Jupiter. The other important features in this diagram are that Marg was at perihelion, while Mercury was but a short distance past its ascending Node. The importance of these two later features was not known at the time, but was discovered with later research. When the outer planets—Uranus, Neptune, and Pluto—are added to ihe diagram we find that Mercury was also in conjunction wits Uranus during this disturbance, which means that Uranus ° ‘and Jupiter were very close t0 conjunction themselves. There are other points of importance to this diagram but a full dis- cussion would become too lengthy. 42FIGURE IV Date: September 18th, 1941 - Remarks: Severe disturbance September 18th to 2ist. The principal point of interest in this diagram is that Venus is square to Mars and the Earth is very close to Mats. Also Mercury is in opposition to Jupiter. When we add the’ three outer planets to the diagram we find that Neptune wes in opposition to Earth and Mars. This disturbance took place only a few days before the autumnal equinox, a period during which the ionosphere of the earth is very sensitive. 43FIGURE V Date: October 2nd, 1942 Remarks: Severe disturbance October 2nd to Sth. in this diagram we see thiat there is an opplstion taking place between Mercury and Venus at the same time there is another opposition taking place between Earth and Mars, Carry- ing the analysis still further, we note that Mercury and Venus were both square to Saturn and Earth and Mars were both square to Jupiter. Later analysis showed that the three outer planets were not involved in this case, except that Saturn and Uranus are almost in conjunction.2. “> om ott FIGURE VI Date: February 7th, 1944 Remarks: Very severe disturbance from February 7th to 2th. The square, actually 2 double square, involving Mercury and Venus with Earth and Jupiter is outstanding, but one important feature that does not show in this diagram is that Mercury was passing through its descending Node at the time, This intensi- fied the disturbance considerably. The three outer planets are not involved in this case. 45em ONE FIGURE VII : : Date: March 27th, 1945 Remarks: Extremely severe disturbance from March 26th to 30th. In this diagram the opposition between Mercury and Mars stands out prominently as does the conjunction between Venus and Jupiter. When we put the three outer planets into the dia- gram we find that at the same time Earth was in conjunction with Neptune. In addition, Mercury was in conjunction with Pluto while Mars was in opposition to Pluto AGThe excellent correlation found between magnetic storms of such importance and conjunctions, squares, and oppositions of the planets was very encouraging and gave me the confidence I needed to investigate the subject even more deeply. In the early to mid-1950s I decided’to look closely into the area of harmonics, and since I had divided the 360 degrees of the full circle into angles of one-half, one-third, and one-quarter with such significant success, 1 concluded that perhaps if 1 divided the 90 degree angle into smaller arts IT would find something of value there also. The 90 degree angle was divided by two, giving us 45 degrees, three, giving us 30 degrees, four, giving us 22% degrees, five, giving us 18 degrees, and six, giving us 15 degrees. I then incorporated these smailer angles, which are called sub- harmonies, into the research program and rechecked past magnetic storms to determine whether or not they had any importance, I also used them in the daily forecasting program, which was quite well established by that time. Jt was.quickly noted that these smaller angles did play a part in.the program wheu. they were attached to either of the two planets engaged in a standard conjunction, square, or opposition. When a standard configuration was, I might say contaminated, with two, three, or sometimes four sub-harmonic angles, the intensity of a dis- turbance would be increased. As we worked in collaboration with each other, Jack Clark and I noticed ‘that three other angles were showing evidence of importance. These were 37% degrees, 67% degrees, and 7% degrees. The 7% degree angle was one-half of the subharmonic of 15 degrees: the 37% degree angle was one-half of 75 degrees—which is’ a multiple of 15 degrees and therefore harmonically related. The 67% degree angle is one half of 135 degrees, which is also a multiple of 15 degrees and three times 45 degrees. We had isolated a group of harmonics which tumed out to be of great value to us in this work. We found that by doubling or splitting various angles that were related to the prime angles of conjunctions, squares, and appositions, we could produce a family of other angtes that had no significantimportance by themselves but wese important when they were simultaneously associated with a prime angle. For several years now I have been referring to this technique as the isolation of simulzaneous multiple harmonics, abbreviated in my work simply as SMH. It is the backbone of my present technique. The great sensitivity of a radio signal's response to a change in solar behavior made it possible to work with such close tolerances as even one-half degree. It should be apparent from the foregoing that this work is very, very complicated. Some mistakes are inevitable because new combinations of planets will from time to time be pro- duced. These new combinations can be associated with changes on the sun that a forecaster has not previously experienced, The proper procedure to take in such situations is to analyze these particular arrangements of the planets very carefully and record what is found for future use. In this particular type of research ‘we can learn more from an occasional mistake than we can from a long line of successes. | speak from experience. On the following pages are produced several diagrams of the. planets that were associated with important magnetic storms in Mose recent years than those previously used. My reason for using two widely separated periods of time is to demonstrate that the system has continued to work. The diagrams used in the following discussion will be analyzed in greater detail than the cases which appear on the preceding pages. To avoid sounding too repetitive, 1 will refer frequently to conjunctions, squares, and oppositions as hard angles because in many cases they all work the same anyway. 1 have selected eight cases for this purpose, all of which were related to outstanding magnetic storms. Since they are -Such outstanding storms, there should also be, according to the tules upon which my system is based, outstanding planetary arrangements taking place at the same time. My experience indicates that the niles of the game, for severe storms, are that there must be one fast planet executing a hard angle with some other planet that is further away from the sun, and at the same lime be in harmonic relationship to lwo or 43three other planets. The harmonics can be made with either other fast planets or slow planets. The fast planets in the system T use are Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Mars. The slow planeis are Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, and Pluto. The major storms analyzed in the following discussions will often contain more: than one hard angle and numerous har- monics. Sometimes several hard angles with their associated har- monics follow one another in quite rapid succession, resulting in major storms, some of which can be prolonged for this rezson. The planet Mercury is of major importance. One would expect this since it is the closest planet to the sun and hes the greatest orbital velocity. (It also has considerable gravitational effects when at perihelion, however I do not wish to get into the area of gravitation since my prime interest is in angles.) 1 think it is safe to say that in at least 90 percent of the cases Mercury is the trigger planet. The planets slower than Mercury can be all set up on a major pattern but a storm usually does not begin until Mercury moves into a hard angle with one of them, or as a harmonic to two that are already asso inted i ina” hard angle.* Simple, uncontaminated conjunctions, squates, and Oppo- sitions involving only two planets can usually be ignored. Simultaneous multiple harmonics are the key. There are so many hard angles made by Mercury and Venus because of their velocity that, if every hard angie presaged a storm, shortwave radio would-have s very difficult time surviving. “Another rule. is that the intensity of a storm will be greater ‘i€ « plenet meking a hard angle is at, or close to, either its nodhi point or perihelion point in space. As a result of detailed new photographs and data from the Mariner spacecraft, scientists are having to revise many of their previous theories about Mercury. Among ‘other things, they have found that the planet has both an atmosphere and a magnetic: fiei4; and because Mercury has a lightweight, moontike surface enclosing a heary crater, inveatiqations are alse undereny ter cleteroiine if it has « lige don cone, 9 possibility previously unsuspected, 49The analysis of each diagram will be presented in caption manner and in some cases will of necessity be quite lengthy. These diagrams are in the “multiples of 15 degrees” frame of reference. The “multiples of 18 degrees” are usually associated with storms of lesser importance. The following cases all pertain to major storms. In addition to angles, I will refer at times to perihelion and nodes, At perihelion a planet is at that point in its orbit which | brings it closest to the sun. Nodes are the places in a planet's orbit at which it crosses the plane of the Earth's orbit which means, of course, that-the planet is crossing the ecliptic. There are two nodes, known as the ascending node, the point at which the planet crosses from below the ecliptic to above the ecliptic, and the descending node (180 degrees away), at which point the planet crosses from above to below the ecliptic. My research throughout the years-has shown that these points in space are very important in this work. The research relating to the nodes has revealed that the point halfway between the nodes is also a very sensitive area in space—apparently as important as the nodes themseives. At this “point in space the planet pauses for an instant in the motion that is taking it away from the ecliptic, and then starts back again towards the ecliptic. Perhaps in doing this it creates a torque in the magnetic field of the sun. This can be demon- strated by dragging a canoe paddle through still water, then suddenly reversing the paddle; an eddy is created in the water. Could the same thing take place in the sun’s outer atmosphere? A similar, but not identical, situation can conceivably take place in the atmosphere and magnetic field of the Earth when a planet is in the position that is referred to as “stationary in declination.” Here, the planet pauses for an instant during its motion away from the Earth’s equator and starts to go in the opposite direction. At such a time perhaps an eddy is created in the atmosphere, resulting in a change’ of weather pattern. How~ ever, it would be very difficult to predict where on the Earth’s surface the change would take place, I have correlated stationary in declination planets with magnetic storms and $0found that there is a tendency for magnetic storms to be increased if such a planetary situation is in existence at the szme time. In such a case, perhaps there could be an eddy created in the Earth’s magnetic field.FIGURE VIII Date: Sept, 23, 1957 Remarks: Very severe magnetic storm 22nd and 23rd. Following‘ several days of exceptionally good shortwave radio signals, the night of the 22nd became badly disturbed and continued throughout the daylight hours. This was followed by an even worse night on the 23rd during which signals were entirely wiped out. It continued throughout the daylight hours and the following night, but with reduced intensity. The signals quickly returned to normal at daylight on the 24th. The: severity of this storm indicated a very strong simul- taneous multiple harmonic in planetary arrangements. An 52examination Of the diagram shows us that Mercury was square to Pluto at the same time that it was 60 degrees ahead of Earth and 120 degrees from Mars, while Mars and-Earth were in oppo- sition, Mercury was also 135 degrees from Venus, 165 degrees from Satum, followed“a few hours later with a separation of 150 degrees from Neptune. All of these angles are harmonically related to the base harmonic of 15 degrees} Also, this is the Autumnal Equinox period during which the Barth's ionosphere and magnetic field are very sensitive. The forecast for this storm was sent out to the worldwide radio industry on August 19th. (in the following diagrams, the position of Mercury is shown at the beginning of the day and the end of the day because of its rapid motion.) 53FIGURE IX Date: April 24, 1960 Remarks: Variable moderate to severe magnetic storm and radio disturbance from 24th to 30th. There were four hard angles during this disturbance. It Degan with Mercury square to Neptune, being at the same time 45 degrees behind Venus and 45 degrees ahead of Jupiter,which shows us that Venus was square té Jupiter while Venus itself was 45 degrees ahead of Mercury and 135 degrees ahead of Neptune. This is a very strong multiple harmonic. The storm continued as Mercury came into conjunction with Mars and the Earth came into conjunction with Neptune. Mercury also came into an opposition with Uranus before the prolonged dis- turbance ended. The forecast for this disturbance was mailed on March 21st. $sFIGURE X Date: July 15, 1960 Remarks: Severe magnetic storm and radio disturbance (Sth to 17th. There were two hard angles during this important dis- turbance. The most important is that Venus is square to Neptune while at the same time being 120 degrees from Mars and close to 30 degrees from Pluto. Of great importance is 56Venus only 3 degrees from its perihelion point. In addition to this we see that Mercury was involved in a double conjunction with Satur and Earth while Saturn was only 10 degrees from its descending node. Furthermore, research throughout the years has indicated that when three planets are involved in a simultaneous 90 degree and 120 degree arrangement (popularly referred to as a square and trine) the associated disturbance can be very severe. Venus, Mars, and Neptune were in this type of arrangement during this storm. The forecast for this disturbance was mailed on June 21st. 57FIGURE XI Date: August 30, 1960 Remarks: Extremely severe disturbance 30th and 3ist. This is a remarkable example oi a very strong simultaneous multiple harmonic involving several planets. An examination of this diagram shows us that Mercury was in conjunction with Pluto at the same time that it was in opposition to Earth and harmonically related to Mats and Jupiter, being 120 degrees ahead of Mars and 120 degrees berind Jupiter. This of course 58placed the Earth also in a strong harmonic relation, since it was 180. degrees from Mercury and Pluto. Mercury also made a 45 degree angle, with Venus, a 60 degree angle with Keptunejand a 15 degree angle with Uranus. At the beginning of the storm, Mercury also made 2 135 degree contact with Saturn. All nine planets in the solar system were involved in this arrangement. Shortwave signals were completely blacked out during the night of the 30th. This storm was predicted officially on July 19th with the statement that a complete blackout would take place on August 30th. . 59FIGURE XI Date: November }2, 1960 . Remarks: One of the most severe disturbances since March 231d, 1940. There ase four hard angles and two trines interrelated in this very strong simultaneous multiple harmonic. The first of importance is Mercury in conjunction with Mars at the peri- helica point in Mercury's orbit. The second being Venus square Earth whilst Earth was trine to Saturn, which was quickly followed by Mercury coming to the 120 degree position of Venus while Venus was still square to Earth. Of further impor- tance, Satum was only about five degrees from its node. The 60third hard angle is Venus in opposition to Uranus followed shortly by the fourth hard angle of Earth square Uranus, The storm began abruptly in the middle of the day on the 12th and bid not end until late on the 16th. A complete day and night blackout took place on the 13th accompanied by a very great eosmic ray shower that lasted until the 16th. Several great solar flares preceded the storm, The storm was officially predicted on Septembes 25, 1959, (over one year in advance) in response to a special request for a forecast for November 1960. The special request came. from NASA by telephone. On October 19, 1960 the regular monthly long-range forecast was sent out to the industry but with only slight change from the first forecast. 61Vale FIGURE XII Date: Aprit 14, 1961 Remarks: Prolonged moderate to severe disturbance from 10th to the 17th. Most severe on the 15th. Trere are several hard angles in this diagram. There is 2 conjusction between Venus and Earth, a conjunction between Mars ead Urenus, and a conjunction between Jupiter and Saturn which. is a long term affair. There are two squares, one between Venus and Jupiter/Saturn followed by Earth square Jupiter/ Satur:. Therz are two oppositions made by Mercury to Uranus and Mars. Cerrying the analysis further, we find that Venus and peeEarth, in addition to squaring Jupiter/Saturn. are also trine to Mercury and 60 degrees ahead of Mars and Uranus. The Jupiter/Saturn conjunction was 75 degrees from Neptune and 150 degrees from Uranus on one side and 30 degrees from Mercury on the other. The Venus/Earth conjunction took place while they were 15 degrees from Neptune. This was 2 truly major simultanegus multiple harmonic arrangement. The night hours of the !Sth were blacked out. Notice also that the Jupiter/Saturn conjunction was on Saturn's node, This disturbance was officially predicted on March 16th. It was further predicted on the previous December 28, 1966 ina jelter to two prominent American astronomers. ~63-FIGURE XIV Date: September 22, 1963 . Remarks: This was a badly disturbed month from beginning to tnd waile Jupiter passed through its perihelion point. One of the mest severely disturbed dates was the 23rd. jagram shows us that Venus was in opposition to Jupiter while Jupiter was at perihelion. Venus was harmonically selate¢ co Neptune and Pluto at the same time, being 30 degrees dening Neptune and 30 degrees ahead of Pluto. This places jupiter 150 degrees behind Pluto and 150 degrees ahead of Neptuzs, making a slow planet multiple harmonic. Mercury 65made a conjunction with Jupitér and an opposition to Venus on the 23rd, which was the most severely disturbed day with sigr nals in a complete blackout during the night hours. These are all strong harmonics especially when they occur at the same time and involve several planets. ” This disturbance was officially predicted as severe on the August 26th long-range forecast which was sent out to the com- munication industry. A letter of commendation was reéeived from the Jet Propulsion Laboratories division of NASA for this forecast. As an added note of interest, an important cosmic ray shower began on the 22nd and lasted until the 25th. 65There are numerous diagrams in my records that show the correlation between magnetic storms and planetary arrange- meats but I think that the addition of more would become so ‘ive as to make tiresome reading. However, 1 have one mere case that appears to be of such extreme importance that f weuld like to request your indulgence in this instance. On February 23, 1956 the greatest cosmic ray shower in recorded history took place. In Figure XV we note that Mercury and Mars were in conjunction. A conjunction between Mercury and Mars is, of course, nothing unusual in itself since it hazpens once in every 100-101 days. The important point is thst this conjunction took place when both of these planets were passing through their descending nodes. The descending the sun on the 22nd or 23rd. It would be of interest to know jus: how often these two planets have a conjunction at this . ¢xecst point in space—here is a job for a good mathematician. The month of February 1956 was also unusual in that is ‘ught about a remarkable increase in sunspot numbers. The , suzspot numbers rose fromt 30 on the 10th to 280 on the 18th. _ bre took place this month a multiple configuration involving r-Saturn-Pluto with Jupiter in conjunction with Pluto Saturn was square to both of them. The Earth entered the uration on the 16th with a conjunction to Jupiter and a square to Saturn. Jupiter and Saturn were square on the 17th. Suzspot numbers remained above -200 for the following six days. Further examination of Figure XV shows us that while. Mercury and Mars were in conjunction at their descending nodes, Venus was crossing its ascending node at almost the same _ time. This event placed all four of the sun’s inner planets, Me:cury, Venus, Earth, and Mars, on the same plane in refer- ence to the ecliptic. This is very, very rare, and the fact that this razz event was associated in timing with a very rare cosmic ray event Causes one to wonder if there might be some physical coznection between the two. 66FIGURE XV onFiguze XVI shows us the day-by-day changes in the sunspot number count for the month of February 1956 (the month under discussion} and shows excellent correlation with the three planet multiple configuration on the 16th and 17th during which there was a conjunction between the Earth and Jupiter/ Pluto and a square between the Earth and Saturn. In spite of the great burst of sunspots this month, radio signals were not significantly disturbed except on the 25th, when Mercury came into a conjunction with Saturn and a square to-Jupiter/Pluto. There were numerous sotar flares during the month which were not followed by significant magnetic activity. The ionosphere was very strong due to the excess of ultraviolet from the sun- spots, and the best frequency range rose by several megacycles. FIGURE XVI February 1956 Y Zuerich suaspot covet for February 1956 coincident with the following alonetary arrangerncats. 17th twpiter-Saturn a 16th Earth Jupiter o V6th Earth-Saturn 2 20 0 xo ™o mm 20 00 ‘0 0 > ~ 2 o « » 1 8 4CHAPTER 5 . Summary It is of major importance to solar system science to establish ona definite yes or no basis that the planels do or do not cause changes in solar radiations. My research throughout these many years has convinced me that they do cause changes when they are in certain select harmonic arrangements. These harmonic arrangements are predictable far into the future. 1 could not have survived as a worldwide forecaster for 25 years if the methods I was using had no scientific foundation. : Edward R. Dewey, President of the Foundation for the - _ Study of Cycles, has said that predictability is‘orie form of” Proof of a relationship between two events. The ultimate proof is explaining why it happens, a job | have to teave to some future scientist, The foundation presented me with a'gold medal in 1952 for my work in the field of radio propagation, and they have given me excellent support and encouragement throughout these many years. . If the planets, in certain arrangements, can cause changes in solar atmospheric behavior, it is only reasonable to expect that they can also cause changes in some segmenty of our environ- ment here on Earth. Meteorological weather is one area, and perhaps short-term and long-ferm weather patterns are available to us if we known how to go about it. This is already under research by some individuals. It has also been shown in recent years that some unknown extraterrestrial forces are apparently causing changes in the biological-chemical areas of life. Perhaps these changes can be traced to the planets. (This is not my area, but a streak of boldness in me causes me to express an opinion ‘on the matter!) 69There appears to be harmonic synchronicity in planetary anguler relationships, caused possibly by the gravitational inter- action of one planet upon another throughout the millions of years the planets have been circling the sun. This manifests itself in the simultaneous multiple harmonics that are so important in my work. It does not seem reasonable to attribute this to chance alone. Perhaps some future computer can solve this problem. In any case, it should be investigated thoroughly, In summation, after more than 25 years of research in this field of solar system science, I can say without equivocation that there is very strong evidence that the planets when in certain predictable arrangements do cause changes to take place in those solar radiations that contro! our ionosphere. A chain reaction of planets to sun, sun to ionosphere and ionosphere to shortwave signals is very evident. There are stilt many problems to be solved, and one that still bothers me is found in the area of forecasting; there are still cases in which 2 magnetic storm that I predict for some future date will begin one day before or one day after the date | select, occasionally two days. These _ events usually take plece concomitant with very intricate "arrangements of the planets involving hard angles and several harmonics. Continued refinements will probably alleviate this problem but 1 doubt if it will every be solved completely, I said earlier in this book that J was dealing with a very whimsical sun and, after all these years, I am still of the same opinion. 70APPENDIX Release - Thursday, April 12, 1951 RCA SCIENTIST REPORTS EVIDENCE OF DIRECT RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EARTH’S MAGNETIC STORMS AND PLANET POSITIONS Critical Groupings of Planets in Solar System are Charted by John H. Nelson of RCA Communications, Inc., as Means of Predicting Radio Weather Months and Years Ahead—Finds Jupiter-Saturn Team Linked to Major Periods of Magnetic Disturbances Evidence that a direct relationship exists ‘between magretic storms on earth and the position of planets with respect to each other and the sun was disclosed today by John H. Nelson, radiowave analyst of RCA Communications. {nc. Findings of Mr. Nelson supporting this new approach to the cause of forces that disturb radio communications appeared for the first time as a documented report in the current issue of the RCA Review, a scientific quarterly of | RCA Laboratories. Heretofore, sunspots and allied activity © ‘on the solar surface have been considered prime causes of magnetic storms that bombard the earth. Mr. Nelson's report suggested that these disruptive forces may be forecast months or even years ahead of their materialization, thus permitting ample time to select the best radio channels to avoid curtailment of traffic. Based on Mr. Nelson's predictions for the 1951-'S2 winter season, selection already has been made by RCA for nNthe best wosking radio routes and frequencies of its world-wide radiotelegraph circuits to be used under the radio weather conditions forecast for that period. The conclusions reached in Mr. Nelson’s teport were the result of nearly five years of studying radiowave behavior in relation to sunspots and the movement of the planets. Using a six.inch telescope atop an RCA Communications building in the heart of New York's financial district, he daily plotted the position and characteristics of sunspots on the solar surface. . It was during the observation of sunspots that Mr. Nelson became convinced’ that, besides their activity, other forces acting upon the sun also affected magnetic weather conditions upon the earth’s surface. This conviction led him into research involving the exact position of planets with respect to the sun. By plotting the course of the six inner planets of the solar system on a daily basis, Mr. Nelson found that: 1. When two or more planets are at right angles (0 cach other, or in tine on the same side of the sun—or in line with the sun between them—magnetic disturbances occur more frequently on the earth's surface, 2, That the most disturbed 12 months period will be those preceding and following the positioning of Saturn and Jupiter in such a configuration with relation to the sun. 3. That -the most severe disturbances occur when Mars, Venus, Mercury and the Earth are in critical relationship near points of the Satum-Jupiter configuration. 4, When Saturn and Jupiter have moved away from their critical relationship, there is a corresponding decline in the severity of magnetic weather, although storms of shorter duration result from the critical combinations of smaller. planets, 5. That the seast disturbed periods occur when Saturn, Jupiter and Mars ase equally spaced by 120° 1By means of his planetary research, Mr. Nelson has been able to predict for two years in advance the approach of major magnetic disturbances on the earth’s surface. Combining his planetary observations with a daily telescapic inspection of the sex’s surface, he has obtained an accuracy of 85 per cent in his daily forecasts of good and bad radio weather. Conclusions presented by Mr. Nelson in the RCA Review lend support to other investigators, notably Ellsworth Huntington ‘and Henry Helm Clayton, who suspected that the planets had an influence upon sunspot activity and conducted extensive research on the subject. Although Mr. Nelson’s research was related to the earth's magnetic storms in relation to radio communications rather than sunspots, his study indicates that the planets influence the surface of the sun and the solar reactions frequently associated with sunspots. In developing cvideace of planetary influence,-Mr. Nelson. . prepared hundreds of charts of planet: positions, radiotele- graph circuit behavior and sunspots, and then compared the relationships between them. He found that because of their slow motion around the sun, Saturn and Jupiter may stay in a critical relation to each other for as much as two years, in which event the inner planets, as they circle the sun more rapidly, have an opportunity to create additional critical relationships, which add to the effects of the Saturn-Jupiter team. . In preparing his evidence, Mr. Nelson relied heavily on the hundreds of daily radio propagation reports gathered for him by RCA technicians at ‘Riverhead, L.I., and by overseas lwehnicians associated with Radio France and the Telegraph Administration in Sweden. Assistance also was rendered by his brother Carl W. Nelson, an amateur astronomer and meteorologist in Massachusetts, who aided in plotting the planetary configurations and in ascertaining the angles of least disturbance, Prior to planetary studies that have made possible his 73lorgrange predictions, Mr. Nelson achieved considcrable success in forecasts based solely upon his observations of suzspots. In 1948, he and his associates caused comment in mical circles by a report in which they said their investigations showed the size of sunspots to be “a mezningless criterion” in predicting disruption caused to racio circuits. The type of the sunspots, their age and activity, together with their position on the face of the sun, were declared to be the determining factors of disruptive boribardment. Moreover, Mr. Nelson and his associates established at the: time the existence of a “critical zone on the face of the sur—an area about 260° in radius from the optical center of the sun, on its eastem hemisphere. it was discovered that the position of the sunspots in relation to this critical zone was of utrost importance. Damaging effects were noted when new active spots were within this zone. Subsequent investigations by Mr. Nelson have shown this criz:cal zone to be expanding as the sunspot cycle approaches its sexy low point of activity, which is expected to occur at apr-oximately the end of 1954. This zone remains a valuable asset to Mr. Nelson in making his daily forecasts of magnetic weezher. 4ACKNOWLEDGMENTS iam indebted to so many people for the help they gave me in this research program that it would be impossible to even begin to name them al). They are scattered all over the world. Their help was mainly in the area of data collecting, so necessary to my work. RCA technicians supplied me with almost hour by hour reports on signals and frequencies from New York, San Francisco, Manila, and Tangier. In addition to this, daily reports of the same type came to me from Sweden. Germany, France! and Switzerland in Europe. In, the other direction, excelent’ reports came to me from Japan and Formosa..lt seemed that just about everyone wanted to help. In this country, I am especially indebted to, the Central Radio Propagation Laboratories of the U.S. Bureau of Stan- dards who supplied me with strictly scientific data not obtain- able elsewhere, General H.C. Ingles, the 1946 president of RCA Communi- cations, must be given my most grateful thanks for assigning me to the post of Propagation Analyst. I also thank hin for the interest and encouragement he gave to me throughout those first few difficult years. 78we OTHER FORMAL PAPERS BY THE AUTHOR . “Panetary Position Effects on Shortwave Signal Qualities." Eiectrical Engineering, May 1952. “Radio Weather Forecasting Techniques." Transactions of the IRE vol. CS-2, January 1954. wed Disturbance Forecasting for the High Frequency The RCA Engineer, Vol. 7, No. 5, Feb-Mar. 19€2. . Tre Effect of Disturbances of Solar Origin on Communications, Pergamon Press and Macmillan Company, New York, N.Y., 1963. Plenets and Radio. The Story of Our Times. The Grolier Soziety, New York, N.Y. 1952. “Do the Planets Cause Sun Storms. A Science Mystery. ” The Saturday Review, Oct. 6, 1962. 76