Republic of the Philippines

Tarlac State University

COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY
Tarlac City

M233

ENGINEERING DATA ANALYSIS

V
Probability

Prepared by

CID LAPUZ

AUGUST 2019
 V
Probability
PROBABILITY
- a branch of mathematics dedicated to building models to describe conditions of uncertainty and providing tools to
make decisions or draw conclusions on the basis of such models. In the broad sense, a PROBABILITY is a
measure of the degree to which an occurrence is certain [or uncertain].
𝑁𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑤𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝑖𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑛 ℎ𝑎𝑝𝑝𝑒𝑛
Probability of an event happening =
𝐓𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐧𝐮𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝐨𝐟 𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞𝐬

EXPERIMENT
- a controlled study in which the researcher attempts to understand cause-and-effect relationships. The study is
"controlled" in the sense that the researcher controls (1) how subjects are assigned to groups and (2) which
treatments each group receives. In the analysis phase, the researcher compares group scores on some dependent
variable . Based on the analysis, the researcher draws a conclusion about whether the treatment ( independent
variable ) had a causal effect on the dependent variable.

SAMPLE SPACE (S)

- a set of elements that represents all possible outcomes of a statistical experiment.

SAMPLE POINT
- an element of a sample space.

ELEMENT
- a subset of a sample space - one or more sample points.

TYPES OF EVENTS
 Two events are mutually exclusive if they have no sample points in common.
 Two events are independent when the occurrence of one does not affect the probability of the occurrence of the
other.

METHODS OF DESCRIBING A SAMPLE SPACE

1. If the sample space has a finite number of sample points, we may describe the set by listing the elements
separated by commas and enclosed in brackets.
2. If the space has large or finite number of sample points, describe the set by a statement or rule.

Example: an experiment consists of examining a bulb to determine whether or not it is defective. Using D for defective
and N for not defective, the sample space for this experiment is
S = {D, N}

Example: if the possible outcomes of an experiment are the set of universities in the Philippines with enrollees over
5,000, the sample space is written
S = {X|X is a university in the Philippines with enrollees over 5,000}

Example: Suppose the sample space is the set of all points in the first quadrant inside a circle of radius 3 centered at the
origin. We let (x, y) be any point. In the first quadrant, the abscissa of a point is positive and the ordinate is positive, i.e.,
x>0 and y>0. Since x2 + y2 = 9 describes any point within the perimeter of the prescribed circle, we write
S = {(x,y)|x2+y2<9, x>0,y>0}

TREE DIAGRAMS
- allow us to see all the possible outcomes of an event and calculate their probability. Each branch in a tree diagram
represents a possible outcome.
 A tree diagram which represent a coin being tossed three times:

From the tree diagram, we can see that there are eight possible outcomes. To find out the probability of a
particular outcome, we need to look at all the available paths (set of branches).

SOME RELATIONS FROM SET THEORY

1.
The event “either A or B or Both” will happen. This connotes the occurrence of event A or B or the simultaneous
occurrence of A and B.
2.
The event “both A and B” will happen. This connotes the simultaneous occurrence of A and B.
3. A’, the complement of A, is the event “not A” will happen. A’ is the set of all outcomes in S that is not in A.

COUNTING TECHNIQUES

MULTIPLICATION RULE
- to find the probability of the intersection of two events, multiply the two probabilities.

FACTORIAL FUNCTION (!)

- means to multiply a series of descending natural numbers.
Examples:
4! = 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 24
7! = 7 × 6 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 5,040
1! = 1

PERMUTATIONS
- an "arrangement number" or "order," is a rearrangement of the elements of an ordered list into a one-to-one
correspondence with itself.

PERMUTATIONS WITH REPETITION

When a thing has n different types ... we have n choices each time!
For example: choosing 3 of those things, the permutations are:
n × n × n (n multiplied 3 times)
More generally: choosing r of something that has n different types, the permutations are:
n × n × ... (r times)
(In other words, there are n possibilities for the first choice, THEN there are n possibilities for the second choice,
and so on, multiplying each time.)
Which is easier to write down using an exponent of r:
n × n × ... (r times) = nr
Example: In a lock, there are 10 numbers to choose from (0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9) and we choose 3 of them:
10 × 10 × ... (3 times) = 103 = 1,000 permutations

PERMUTATIONS WITHOUT REPETITION

1. The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken n at a time is
P = n!
Example: what order could 16 pool balls be in?
After choosing, say, number "14" we can't choose it again.
 So, our first choice has 16 possibilites, and our next choice has 15 possibilities, then 14, 13, 12, 11, ... etc.
And the total permutations are:
16P16=16! = 16 × 15 × 14 × 13 × ... = 20,922,789,888,000

2. The number of permutations of n distinct objects taken r at a time is

!
P = nPr = ( )!
Example: Example: how many arrangements of 3 balls taken from a 16 pool balls?
!
P = 16P3 = ( )!
= 16 × 15 × 14 = 3,360

3. The number of permutations of n objects of which n1 are identical, n2 are identical, …, nm are identical is
𝑛!
𝑃=
𝑛 !𝑛 !…𝑛 !
Example: calculating the number of arrangements of the letters in MISSISSIPPI:
There are 11 letters in total
There are 4 identical I's
There are 4 identical S's
There are 2 identical P's
!
So, the total number of possible arrangements = =
( !)( !)( !)

4. The number of permutations of n distinct objects arranged in a circle is

a. If clockwise and anti clock-wise orders are different, then total number of circular-permutations is given
by (n-1)!
Example: If we arrange these 3 persons around a round table as show in the picture below, we notice
that all the different arrangements are not actually different, rather they all are same. How? Well… If
you move clockwise, start with A, round the table in the picture shown below you will always get A-B-C.
See for yourself.

So it turns out that 3 linear permutations is actually 1 circular permutation.

Hence in general if we have n elements then total linear permutation of n elements taken all at a time is n!
And we observe that n linear permutations correspond to 1 circular permutation.
So for n elements, circular permutation = n! / n = (n-1)!
Now if we solve the above problem, we get total number of circular permutation of 3 persons taken all at
a time = (3-1)! = 2.

b. If clock-wise and anti-clock-wise orders are taken as not different, then total number of circular-
permutations is given by (n-1)!/2
if you consider 5 diamonds and you want to make a necklace. In this case 5 diamonds can be arranged in
a circle in (5-1)! = 24 ways. But in case of forming a necklace the clockwise and counter clockwise
arrangements cannot be distinguished. So the total circular permutation in this case = (5-1)! / 2 = 4! / 2 =
12 ways.

COMBINATIONS
- the number ways of selecting r items from a set of n.
!
nCr = = )!
!(
Example: In how many ways can a coach choose three swimmers from among five swimmers?
There are 5 swimmers to be taken 3 at a time.
!
5C3 = =
!( )!
The coach can choose the swimmers in 10 ways.
PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT

PROPERTIES OF PROBABILITY
1. Positiveness 0≤P(A)≤1
2. Certainty P(S)=1, the probability of a sure event

Example: There are 18 tickets marked with numbers 1 to 18. What‘s the probability of selecting a ticket having the
following property:
a) even number
b) number divisible by 3
c) prime number
d) number divisible by 6
Solution:

ADDITIVE RULES
If events A and B are mutually exclusive (disjoint), then
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)
Otherwise,
P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A and B)
Example: mutually exclusive
In a group of 101 students 30 are freshmen and 41 are sophomores. Find the probability that a student picked from this
group at random is either a freshman or sophomore.
Note that P(freshman) = 30/101 and P(sophomore) = 41/101. Thus
P(freshman or sophomore) = 30/101 + 41/101 = 71/101
This makes sense since 71 of the 101 students are freshmen or sophomores.
Example: not mutually exclusive
In a group of 101 students 40 are juniors, 50 are female, and 22 are female juniors. Find the probability that a student
picked from this group at random is either a junior or female.
Note that P(junior) = 40/101 and P(female) = 50/101, and P(junior and female) = 22/101. Thus
P(junior or female) = 40/101 + 50/101 – 22/101 = 68/101
This makes sense since 68 of the 101 students are juniors or female.
Not sure why? When we add 40 juniors to 50 females and get a total of 90, we have overcounted. The 22 female juniors
were counted twice; 90 minus 22 makes 68 students who are juniors or female.
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
- finding the probability that a second event will occur given that the first event has occurred.

MULTIPLICATION RULE: When two events, A and B, are dependent, the probability of both occurring is

Example: The probability that it is Friday and that a student is absent is 0.03. Since there are 5 school days in a
week, the probability that it is Friday is 0.2. What is the probability that a student is absent given that today is Friday?
Solution:
P(Friday and Absent) 0.03
P(Absent|Friday) = = = 0.15 = 15%
P(Friday) 0.2
Example: At Kennedy Middle School, the probability that a student takes Technology and Spanish is 0.087. The
probability that a student takes Technology is 0.68. What is the probability that a student takes Spanish given that
the student is taking Technology?
Solution:
P(Technology and Spanish) 0.087
P(Spanish|Technology) = = = 0.13 = 13%
P(Technology) 0.68