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Arq4-1 Zerocurves PDF
Arq4-1 Zerocurves PDF
Ken Adams
Risk and other market professionals often show a smooth interpolation. There is a simple
keen interest in the smooth interpolation of mathematical definition of smoothness, namely, a
interest rates. Though smooth interpolation is smooth function is one that has a continuous
intuitively appealing, there is little published differential. Thus, any zero curve that can be
research on its benefits. Adams and van represented by a function with a continuous first
Deventer’s (1994) investigation into whether derivative is necessarily smooth. However,
smooth interpolation affected the accuracy of interpolated zero curves are not necessarily
pricing swaps lends some credence to the smooth; for example, curves that are created by
intuitive belief that smooth interpolation gives the well-known technique of linear interpolation
more accurate results than linear interpolation. of a set of yields are not smooth, since the first
The authors took swap rates for maturities of derivative is discontinuous. This article extends
one, two, three, five, seven and 10 years together the simple mathematical definition of
with the six-month zero rate, removed the seven- smoothness, and then describes the implications
year swap rate from the data and created the of the extended definition for the smooth
implied zero-rate curve from the remaining data. interpolation of zero curves.
The resulting zero-rate curve was used to
calculate the missing seven-year swap rate which The mathematics of zero curves
was then compared to the actual seven-year swap
The mathematics of zero curves is derived from
rate. The authors found that swap rates the prices of discount bonds; a discount bond
calculated with smoothly interpolated zero-rate being a security that pays, with certainty, a unit
curves were closer to the actual seven-year swap amount at maturity. The following axioms define
rate than swap rates calculated with curves that the discount bond market:
were linearly interpolated.
• The market trades continuously over its
This paper aims to describe the mathematics and trading horizon: it extends from the current
finance theory necessary for an understanding of time to some distant future time such that
the maturities of all the instruments to be maturity of coupon-bearing bonds and yield
valued fall between now and the trading curves derived from the continuously
horizon. compounded yields to maturity of zero coupon
(discount) bonds. This article is concerned only
• The market is frictionless: no transaction with the latter, which are called zero curves. In
costs or taxes are incurred in trading, there addition, the term zero yield is used to refer to
are no restrictions on trade (legal or the continuously compounded yield to maturity
otherwise) such as margin requirements on of a zero coupon bond. Note that all rates are
short sales, and the goods in the market are continuously compounded. It is an easy matter to
infinitely divisible. convert to and from periodic compounding, and
the use of continuous compounding enables the
• The market is competitive: every trader can
expression of the mathematics of zero curves in a
buy and sell as many bonds as desired
particularly simple and elegant form, which
without changing the market price.
greatly simplifies the discussion.
• The market is efficient: information is
Prices and yields
available to all traders simultaneously, and
every trader makes use of all the available Consider a bond which is sold now, at time t, and
information. is due to mature at time x, where t ≤ x < x∞ . The
• The market is complete: any desired cash trading horizon, x ∞ , is much greater than zero
flow can be obtained from a suitable self- and is longer than the maturity of any bond.
financing strategy based on a portfolio of Suppose the price of the bond is denoted by
discount bonds. P ( t ,x ) . Since the bond pays a unit amount at
• There are no arbitrage opportunities: the maturity, we must have P(x ,x) = 1 . When t < x
price of a portfolio is the sum of its the bond sells at a discount and P(t ,x) < 1 . Thus,
constituent parts. in general, we have P(t ,x) ≤ 1 .
• All traders in the market act to maximize Now, define the zero yield in terms of the bond
their profits: they are rational and prefer price. The zero yield, as seen at time t, of a bond
more to less. that matures at time x, t ≤ x < x∞ , is denoted by
y ( t, x ) and is defined, for t < x , by the relationship
These axioms are necessary for the development
of the mathematics of zero curves. However, they
P (t,x) = exp ( – ( x – t ) y ( t, x ) ) (1)
may not apply to real markets. For example, one
conclusion that can be drawn from the axioms is Equation 1 states that the price of the bond at
that the market prices equal the intrinsic value of time t is equal to its discounted value. Note that
the bonds; that is, there is no “noise” in the
this relationship does not define y(t ,t) since
market prices. Further, the market completeness
P ( T, T ) = 1 for all T; so, for a discount bond
axiom implies that all points on the zero curve
are known. In fact, the zero curve is not defined maturing at t = T , both sides of the equation are
by an infinite set of values, but rather by a equal to unity, irrespective of the value of y(t ,t) .
discrete, finite set. The zero yield in terms of the price of a bond is
obtained by rearranging Equation 1:
Discount bonds are often called zero coupon
bonds, in contrast to coupon bonds that make – ln ( P(t ,x) )
y (t,x) = -------------------------- (2)
more than one cash payment to their owner. It is x–t
usual to distinguish between yield curves derived
from the periodically compounded yields to provided t < x .
time t, a bond that matures at time x 2 is bought; Differentiating Equation 8 with respect to x gives
the price of this bond is P ( t, x2 ) . Note that the
– P x(t, x)
complete-market axiom guarantees that these ------------------- = y(t, x) + ( x – t )y x(t, x) (9)
P(t, x)
bonds exist. In addition, the axiom specifying
that there are no arbitrage opportunities implies Finally, by direct comparison of Equation 7 and
that the price of the bond maturing at time x2 Equation 9
must be equal to the product of the price of the – P x(t ,x)
bond maturing at time x1 and the forward price: f(t ,x) = ------------------ (10)
P(t ,x)
P(t ,x2) = P(t ,x1)P(t ,x1 ,x 2) (3) It is now possible to define y(t, t) , which, as noted,
is not defined by Equation 2. First, note that
Let the implied forward rate, as seen at time t, for Equation 7 implies f(t ,t) = y(t ,t) . Then, noting
the period x 1 to x2 be f ( t, x 1, x 2 ) , defined by: that P(t, t) = 1 , Equation 10 can be used to
obtain
P(t ,x1 ,x 2) = exp ( – ( x2 – x 1 ) f ( t ,x 1 ,x2 ) ) (4)
– P x(t ,x)
y(t ,t) = lim ------------------ = lim – P x(t ,x)
Note the similarity between the definition of the x → t P(t ,x) x→t
This completes the essential mathematical methods, here, we consider those methods that
theory of zero curves. In the following sections, require knowledge of the data points only. This
the relevance of this theory to the interpolation excludes, for example, Hermitian interpolation,
of zero curves is shown, with particular emphasis which requires knowledge of the derivative
on smoothest forward-rate interpolation. values as well as the values at the data points. In
addition, the use of algebraic polynomials, such
The smooth interpolation of zero curves as Lagrange polynomials, are excluded because
the order of the interpolating polynomial must, in
To construct zero curves from market data, general, be n – 1 , which implies that there could
assume that the n data values are be as many as n – 2 maxima and minima, and this
{ (x1,y 1) ,(x2,y 2) ,… ,(x n,y n) }
is not a desirable property of a zero curve.
Consequently, we consider only piecewise spline
where 0 ≤ x1 < x2 < … < xn < x∞ are the times to curves. Splines were originally strips of elastic
maturity of n ≥ 1 zero coupon bonds and material used by engineering draughtsmen to
y i = y ( 0 ,xi ) is the zero rate corresponding to the draw smooth curves through a given set of
time to maturity x i ( i = 1 ,2 ,… ,n ). Note that we points, known as knot points. Being elastic, the
splines assume the shape that minimizes their
have implicitly set t = 0 , as is customary when strain energy. Unconstrained, this shape is a
constructing a zero curve from current market straight line. However, when the splines are
data. This allows the simplification of the constrained to pass through a set of points, and
notation as follows. Use y(x) and f(x) to denote no other constraints are imposed (e.g., they were
y ( 0 ,x ) and f ( 0, x ) , respectively. Using this new not twisted at the ends), an elastic spline assumes
notation, yi = y ( xi ) . a shape that is “as straight as possible.”
In developing the mathematical theory of zero Analogously, the zero curve is defined by the n
curves, it is assumed that the value of y ( t, x ) for data points { (x1,y1) ,(x2,y2) ,… ,(xn,yn) } , where each
( t ≤ x ≤ x∞ ) is known. In reality, the current zero one of the data values represents a knot point,
that is a point at which the (as yet unspecified)
curve is not defined by this infinite set of values
spline segments join. If the spline segment
implied by the complete market axiom, but,
function for the interval x i ≤ x < x i + 1 is denoted
rather, by a set of discrete data values { (xi,yi) } ,
by S i , then the zero curve can be defined by the
each value comprising a time to maturity and a
zero rate. If we wish to use the mathematics of set of functions {S1, S 2 ,… ,S n – 1} . If it is necessary
zero curves derived above, the discrete set of to extrapolate beyond the end values, (x 1,y1) and
values must be extended to an infinite set. This is (xn,y n) ,
two further spline functions, S 0 and S n ,
achieved by defining the current zero curve by a
will be needed; the former being used for the
combination of the set of discrete data values and
range at the left-hand end, 0 ≤ x < x 1 , and the
a method for interpolating those values. Given
these, the value of y ( x ) for any value of x in the latter for the range at the right-hand end,
xn ≤ x < x ∞ . Though nothing has been said about
range ( 0 ≤ x < x ∞ ) can be found. Note that one
the form of the spline functions, polynomial
consequence of this definition of the zero curve is
splines are sufficient for our purpose.
that changing the interpolation method changes
the zero curve. The simplest type of interpolation algorithm is
the two-point algorithm, where interpolation of
Interpolation
values in the interval xi ≤ x < x i + 1 depends only
Interpolation methods provide a means to on the two points (x i,yi) and (xi + 1,y i + 1) . In
calculate values of y ( x ) for times xi that do not
contrast, the multi-point algorithm requires
coincide with the given times to maturity, knowledge beyond the adjacent knot points. The
x 1 ,x2 ,… ,x n . Though there are many interpolation well-known technique of linear interpolation is a
two-point algorithm, and cubic-spline Though the theory of strain energy is not
interpolation is a multi-point algorithm. discussed, note that the smaller the quantity, the
less the strain energy or, intuitively, the smaller
Smoothness the “bending” of the elastic spline. This quantity
Recall that a smooth function is one that has a is taken as the measurement of smoothness for
continuous differential. Thus, any zero curve that the splines: the smaller this measure of
can be represented by a continuous function is smoothness, the smoother the interpolating
smooth. However, the same is not necessarily curve. The measure of smoothness shall be used
true for interpolated zero curves; for example, to determine the “best” interpolation methods
curves that are created by linear interpolation are for zero curves.
not smooth. This observation applies to all two- A second property of elastic splines is useful.
point interpolation formulae, since, in general, Since the only constraints are that the splines
there is a discontinuity in the first derivative at must pass through the given points, the parts of
the knot points. For similar reasons, it also the splines that project beyond the curve defined
applies to any method that does not use the full by the specified points are not subject to any
set of data points in the construction of the spline constraints. This implies that the portions of the
curve. In general, there must be at least one knot splines beyond the ends of the specified points
point at which the derivatives are not are linear (since this minimizes the strain energy
continuous. Consequently, only those in those parts of the splines). Thus, the second
interpolation methods that use all of the data derivatives of the splines beyond the given data
points to construct the spline curve are points are zero.
considered.
The determination of the smoothest possible
The mathematical definition of smoothness does interpolation method depends on whether we
not help to distinguish between different spline want to find the smoothest zero curve or the
functions; in particular, it does not provide a
smoothest forward-rate curve (specifically, the
measure of smoothness. To define a measure of
smoothest continuously compounded forward-
smoothness, we begin with a simple idea that rate curve). Thus, two interpolation methods are
makes intuitive sense and then give it a precise considered. Cubic-spline interpolation
meaning. Intuitively, interpolation functions with
guarantees the smoothest zero curve, and
the smallest number of maxima and minima have
smoothest forward-rate interpolation guarantees
the fewest possible “bends,” that is, they are as the smoothest continuously compounded
close as possible to a straight line. Recall that forward-rate curve. Since cubic-spline
straight lines can not be used to join the knot
interpolation is a standard technique dealt with
points, because when data sets contain more
in many books on numerical methods, it is
than two points, linear interpolation is not reviewed only briefly here.
smooth.
Values beyond the two end points are calculated Smoothest forward-rate interpolation
using linear extrapolation. However, if the
gradient of this line is too steep, the extrapolated Though smooth zero curves are desirable,
values may be unacceptably high (positive practitioners often state a preference for zero
gradient) or negative (negative gradient). If our curves that have the smoothest forward rates.
aim is to create a zero curve with a better shape, The interpolating function that guarantees the
smoothest continuously compounded
it is possible to constrain the cubic spline so that
instantaneous forward-rate curve is a quartic
the gradient at the right-hand end is zero; the
spline. Recall that the data consist of zero rates,
constrained spline behaves like zero curves that
not forward rates. Therefore, the quartic spline
tend to flatten at longer maturities. Then linear
that is constructed does not pass through the
extrapolation gives a smooth curve, albeit a data points. In this section, the equations of the
horizontal one for maturities longer than the smoothest forward-rate interpolating function
maturities in the data set. are given, and the linear equations to be solved
to find the coefficients defining that function are
A financial cubic spline denotes a cubic spline specified.
that is constrained so that its derivative at its
right-hand end is zero, and its second derivative We wish to construct a quartic spline for each of
at the left-hand end is also zero. These additional the n – 1 sections between the knot points. The
constraints mean that it will have a slightly ith spline segment can be expressed as
different shape than the natural cubic spline 2 3 4
S i(x) = a + bx + cx + dx + ex (12)
passing through the same set of points, so it will
not be the smoothest curve to interpolate those
where S i(x) represents the function f(x) over the
points (the natural cubic spline is). However, no
other interpolation function that is subject to the range x i ≤ x < xi + 1 .
same constraints as the financial cubic spline,
Each spline segment is a quartic polynomial and
and which fits the given data, is smoother than
there are n – 1 segments; 5 ( n – 1 ) = 5n – 5
the financial cubic spline that interpolates that unknown coefficients must be found.
data.
The system of linear equations is defined by the
A further property of cubic-spline interpolation is following constraints:
worthy of mention. The general equation for a
• the n original zero rates must be recoverable
cubic is y = a + bx + cx2 + dx 3 , suggesting the
from the zero curve
need for four coefficients (a, b, c and d) for each
section of the spline curve. However, it is also • there must be continuity:
possible to define a cubic spline in terms of the
given x and y values and the second derivatives • at the n – 2 interior knot points
at the knot points. Thus, to create a cubic-spline • of the first derivatives at the n – 2
zero curve, it is necessary to find only the second interior knot points
derivatives at the knot points, which leads to a
set of tri-diagonal linear equations. A standard • of the second derivatives at the n – 2
algorithm for solving sets of linear equations is interior knot points
LU decomposition and back-substitution. When • of the third derivatives at the n – 2
the set of equations is tri-diagonal, the algorithm interior knot points.
takes a particularly efficient form so that the
Thus far, n + 4 ( n – 2 ) = 5n – 8 conditions have
implementation of cubic-spline interpolation is
been defined. The additional three conditions
computationally efficient. These algorithms are
imposed are f ′(x n) = 0 , f ″(x1) = 0 and f ″(x n) = 0 .
described in standard texts on numerical
methods (see, e.g., Burden and Faires (1997)). The first condition, f ′(x n) = 0 , ensures that the
right-hand end of the curve is flat. The last two In the second case, where 0 < x1 , the spot rate at
of these conditions constrain the second time zero is unknown. Again, from Equation 11
derivatives of the forward curve at both the left-
x1
hand and right-hand ends to be zero. Together,
these ( 5n – 5 ) conditions ensure that the ò f(u) du = x1 y1 (16)
interpolating spline has the smoothest 0
0 xi xi
Hence, the extrapolated zero rate is
This is true for 1 ≤ i ≤ n – 1 . Substituting mx
y = f 1 + ------- – mx1 (20)
Equation 12 for f(x) in Equation 14 over this 2
range and integrating gives
The validity of Equation 20 can be checked by
bi 2
noting that y ( 0 ) = f1 – mx 1 = f ( 0 ) , as expected.
2 (15)
x i + 1 yi + 1 – xi yi = a i x i + 1 – xi + --- xi + 1 – xi Therefore,
2
3
ci 3 3 di 4 4 mx1 b1 x1 d1 x 1 4
+ --- ( x x + 1 – x i ) + ---- ( xi + 1 – xi ) y ( 0 ) = y 0 = f 1 – --------- = a 1 + ---------- – ---------- – e 1 x 1 (21)
3 4 2 2 2
Solving the system of equations Interpolating values from the zero curve
The linear equations defined above are arranged In order to interpolate the value of f(x) for
into blocks of five equations each. If the blocks x1 < x ≤ x n , first determine the index i such that
x 2 3 4
æ i x
ö æ x
ö fn = an – 1 + bn – 1 x n + c n – 1 xn + d n – 1 x n + e n – 1 xn
1-- ç 1-- ç
y = ò f(u) du + ò f(u) du = y i x i + ò f(u) du÷
÷
xç ÷ xç ÷
è0 xi ø è xi ø Thus, the integral of the forward rate is
1 bi 2 2
= -- æ x i y i + ai ( x – xi ) + --- ( x – xi ) xn
xè 2 x x
c i 3 3 di 4 4 ei 5 5 ò f(u) du = ò f ( u ) du + ò f ( u ) du
+ --- ( x – x i ) + ---- ( x – xi ) + --- ( x – x i ) ö
3 4 5 ø 0 0 xn
x (22)
S′ n – 1(x n) = 0 10 0.0931
15 0.0912
S′′ n – 1(xn) = 0
20 0.0857
Thus, it is possible to extrapolate the right-hand
end of the forward-rate curve with constant Table 1: Zero-rate data
The following three graphs show the zero- and extrapolated rates, but distorts the forward-rate
forward-rate curves interpolated from this data curve. Though the zero curve is smooth, there is
using the smoothest forward rate, natural cubic- an abrupt transition at the maximum maturity
spline and financial cubic-spline interpolation (20 years) where the forward-rate curve ceases to
methods. Note that though the maximum be smooth.
maturity in the data is 20 years, the graphs have
been extended to 30 years to show the
differences between the extrapolated values.
smooth curves to a finite set of points was of how to set up the system of linear equations to
adopted. This measure of smoothness implies solve for the coefficients of these quartic splines.
that there in no smoother interpolating function In addition, it is shown how to interpolate values
than the set of cubic splines interpolating the and how to deal with rates beyond the ends of
given points. the zero curve.