Problem 4.

Markov chains (Initial state multiplication):

Suppose that 4 types of soft drinks are obtained in the market: Colombian, Pepsi
Cola, Fanta and Coca Cola when a person has bought Colombian there is a
probability that they will continue to consume 40%, 20% of which will buy Pepsi
Cola, 10% that Fanta buys and 30% that Coca Cola consumes; when the buyer
currently consumes Pepsi Cola there is a probability that he will continue to buy
30%, 20% buy Colombiana, 20% that Fanta consumes and 30% Coca Cola; if
Fanta is currently consumed, the likelihood of it continuing to be consumed is 20%,
40% buy Colombian, 20% consume Pepsi Cola and 20% go to Coca Cola. If you
currently consume Coca Cola the probability that it will continue to consume is
50%, 20% buy Colombian, 20% that consumes Pepsi Cola and 10% that is passed
to Fanta.

At present, each Colombian brand, Pepsi Cola, Fanta and Coca Cola have the
following percentages in market share respectively (30%, 25%, 15% and 30%)
during week 3.

a. Find the transition matrix.

b. Find the probability that each user stays with the mark or change to another
for period 4 (problem 4) and period 5 (problem 5).

PEPSI COCA-
STATE COLOMBIANA COLA FANTA COLA
COLOMBIANA 0,40 0,2 0,1 0,3
PEPSI COLA 0,2 0,3 0,2 0,3
FANTA 0,4 0,2 0,2 0,2
COCA-COLA 0,2 0,2 0,1 0,5

PEPSI COCA-
COLOMBIANA COLA FANTA COLA
0,30 0,25 0,15 0,3

PEPSI COCA-
STATE COLOMBIANA COLA FANTA COLA
COLOMBIANA 0,30 0,22 0,13 0,35
PEPSI COLA 0,28 0,23 0,15 0,34
FANTA 0,32 0,22 0,14 0,32
COCA-COLA 0,26 0,22 0,13 0,39

PEPSI COCA-
COLOMBIANA COLA FANTA COLA
0,29 0,225 0,14 0,345
 PEPSI COCA-
STATE COLOMBIANA COLA FANTA COLA
COLOMBIANA 0,29 0,222 0,135 0,357
PEPSI COLA 0,286 0,223 0,138 0,353
FANTA 0,292 0,222 0,136 0,35
COCA-COLA 0,278 0,222 0,135 0,365

PEPSI COCA-
COLOMBIANA COLA FANTA COLA
0,29 0,2225 0,1365 0,355
COMPANIES
PEPSI COCA-
STATE COLOMBIANA COLA FANTA COLA
E0 COLOMBIANA 0,4 0,2 0,1 0,3
E1 PEPSI COLA 0,2 0,3 0,2 0,3
E2 FANTA 0,4 0,2 0,2 0,2
E3 COCA-COLA 0,2 0,2 0,1 0,5

PROBABILITY 0
PEPSI COCA-
COLOMBIANA COLA FANTA COLA
0,30 0,25 0,15 0,3

PROBABILITY 1
PEPSI COCA-
P0 * T = P1 COLOMBIANA COLA FANTA COLA
P1 = PERIOD 1 0,29 0,225 0,14 0,345

PROBABILITY 2
PEPSI COCA-
P1 * T = P2 COLOMBIANA COLA FANTA COLA
P2 = PERIOD 2 0,29 0,2225 0,1365 0,355

PROBABILITY 3
PEPSI COCA-
P2 * T = P3 COLOMBIANA COLA FANTA COLA
P23= PERIOD 3 0,2845 0,22225 0,1359 0,35735

PROBABILITY 4
P3 * T = P4 COLOMBIANA PEPSI FANTA COCA-
 COLA COLA
P4 = PERIOD 4 0,28408 0,222225 0,135815 0,35788