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UBS Debt Investors
UBS Debt Investors
Stockholm
20 February 2008
Mikael Inglander, CFO
Jan Lilja, Head of Group Treasury
The leading bank in four small countries
Sweden Estonia
Total population: 9.2m Total population: 1.3m
Employees: 8,750 Employees: 3,227
Share of group lending
Private customers: 4.1m Private customers: 1.2m
Corp. customers: 275,000 Corp. customers: 88,000
Organisations: 120,000 Branches: 94
Branches: 459 Typical market share: 50%
Typical market share: 25%
80%
Latvia Lithuania
Total population: 2.3m Total population: 3.5m
Employees: 2,501 Employees: 3,384 6% 5% 5%
Private customers: 0.8m Private customers: 3.0m 4%
Corp. customers: 53,000 Corp. customers: 78,000
Lithuania
Estonia
Latvia
Sweden
Others
Branches: 77 Branches: 128
Typical market share: 30% Typical market share: 30%
Swedbank is the leading bank in The Baltic economies are Swedbank has a small but
Sweden. Profitability is high and experiencing strong economic growing presence in Ukraine and
stable and the bank is growth that is expected to remain Russia . Long-term, a significant
consolidating its market shares in for many years. As the largest share of Swedbank’s growth will
important segments in both the bank in the region, growing with be generated in these markets.
private and corporate sectors. the market ensures Swedbank an
attractive earnings growth.
(3)
Swedbank, group overview
Shared
Asset
Swedish Baltic Swedbank International Services
Management
Banking Banking Markets Banking & Group
& Insurance
Staffs
60%
52% Share of Group net profit, Q1-3 2007
50%
40%
32%
30%
20%
8% 8%
10%
2%
0%
-10% -2%
(4)
2007 – A successful and eventful year
• Profit attributable to shareholders increased 10% to SEK 12bn
– Net interest income increase by 20%
– Net commission income increased by 11%
• Swedish Banking show a stable result, low risks and high return on
equity
• Record result in Baltic Banking with balanced risks
• Swedbank Markets’ results on same level as last year’s all time high
(5)
Q4 2007 – Good development and strong results
• Good volume development in Sweden
– Stable margins on new lending
• Continued strong results in Baltic banking
– Economic slowdown align with expectations
• Strong finish of the year for Swedbank Markets
– Success in fixed income trading and structured investment products in
Sweden and corporate finance in Norway
• Swedbank Ukraine continues to develop well
(6)
Solid profit development
SEKm SEKm
17,000 17,000
15,000 15,000
13,000 13,000
11,000 11,000
9,000 9,000
7,000 7,000
5,000 5,000
3,000 3,000
1,000 1,000
-1,000 -1,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
*Loan losses, net = write-offs + provisions – recoveries + change in property taken over
Minor direct effects from the credit turmoil
Q4 Q3
Valuation- and accounting effects, SEK M 2007 2007
Swedbank Markets – 40 – 60
(8)
Business volumes
Savings Lending
SEKbn SEKbn
500 1,200
1,103
398 401
1,000 919
400
334
289 800
300
600
475
200 425 390
400 333
102
100 84
200
24 31 53 77 74 100
13 19 34 61
0 0
Deposits, Deposits, AM funds, AM funds, Structured Lending, Private, Corporate, Private, Corporate, Other
Sweden Baltics Sweden Baltics products, Group Sweden Sweden Baltics Baltics
bonds
Dec, 2006 Dec, 2007 Dec, 2006 Dec, 2007
(9)
Credit quality, group
%
0.64
0.56
0.48
0.40
0.32
0.24
0.16
0.08
0.00
-0.08
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Loan loss ratio, net Share of impaired loans
Share of provisions
(10)
Margins
% Lending Deposits
%
6.0 6.0
5.0 5.0
4.0 4.0
3.0 3.0
2.0 2.0
1.0 1.0
0.0 0.0
Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4-
06 06 07 07 07 07 06 06 07 07 07 07
Estonia Latvia Estonia Latvia
Lithuania Sweden Lithuania Sweden
(11)
Swedish Banking
• Continued stable earnings and high profitability
SEKm % • Strong corporate lending during Q4
5,000 0.7
– Total lending increased by 4% vs. Q3 and 14%
4,500 during the full year
0.6
4,000 • Continued good deposit trend
3,500 0.5
– Deposits increased by 3% vs. Q3 and 15% during
3,000 0.4 the full year
2,500 • Share of new savings from households
0.3
2,000 increased to 18% (17% in Dec 06)
1,500 0.2 • Rise in funding costs are gradually, but with
1,000 certain delay, passed on through higher lending
0.1
500 rates
0 0.0 • Minor valuation effects as a consequence of the
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 turmoil on the credit market
06 06 06 07 07 07 07
• Covered bonds as from Q2 2008
• In agreement to sell 8 branches to savings
Income Costs C/I-ratio banks
• Swedish economy still relatively strong.
(12)
Baltic Banking Operations
• Continued high profitability
SEKm %
• Net interest income increased 7% vs. Q3
2,400 0.5
2,200 • Lending growth in 2007 was 33%, the gradual
2,000
0.4 slowdown is expected to continue
1,800
1,600 • Weak trading income due to market turmoil
1,400 0.3
• Costs affected by
1,200
1,000 0.2
– Annual wage increases in Latvia and Lithuania,
800 hits P&L as of October every year
600 – Investments in operational excellence project
0.1
400
for increased productivity
200
0 0.0 – High marketing costs.
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
06 06 06 07 07 07 07
(13)
Credit quality, Baltic Banking
2.0% Share of impaired loans (12 month old portfolio)
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Estonia Latvia Lithuania Baltics Group
1.2%
0.4%
-1.2%
-2.0%
(14)
Estonia Latvia Lithuania Group
Decreasing Baltic lending growth
8,000 Hansabank, Estonia 60% 7,000 Hansabank, Latvia 100%
90%
7,000 6,000
50% 80%
6,000 5,000 70%
40%
5,000 60%
4,000
4,000 30% 50%
3,000 40%
3,000
20% 30%
2,000
2,000
20%
10% 1,000
1,000 10%
0 0% 0 0%
05/Jun
06/Jun
07/Jun
05/Jun
06/Jun
07/Jun
05/Mar
06/Mar
07/Mar
05/Mar
06/Mar
07/Mar
05/Sep
06/Sep
07/Sep
05/Sep
06/Sep
07/Sep
05/Dec
06/Dec
07/Dec
05/Dec
06/Dec
07/Dec
6,000 Hansabank, Lithuania 70% 20,000 Baltic Banking 70%
18,000
5,000 60% 60%
16,000
50% 14,000 50%
4,000
40% 12,000 40%
3,000 10,000
30% 8,000 30%
2,000 6,000
20% 20%
1,000 4,000
10% 10%
2,000
0 0% 0 0%
05/Jun
06/Jun
07/Jun
05/Jun
06/Jun
07/Jun
05/Mar
06/Mar
07/Mar
05/Mar
06/Mar
07/Mar
05/Sep
06/Sep
07/Sep
05/Sep
06/Sep
07/Sep
05/Dec
06/Dec
07/Dec
05/Dec
06/Dec
07/Dec
1 1
0 0 (15)
0Total lending, EURm YoY growth
0
, 0
%
0
0
Baltic macro development
• Economic slowdown in Estonia continues: GDP growth slows from ~7% in 2007 to ~5% in
2008; the bottom of the cycle is expected to be in Q2 2008
• In Latvia growth slows from ~10.5% to 6% in 2008, the bottom of the cycle is expected to be
in H2 of 2008
• Slowdown in Lithuania started in Q4 2007: GDP growth will slow from 2007’s 8.7% to ~7.5%
in 2008
• Weak domestic demand reduces imports and exports growth continues. Trade and current
account deficits are falling. CPI will peak in Q1 2008. Long term GDP growth (6-7%) will be
above EU average.
Real GDP growth CPI growth
12%
12%
10%
10%
8%
8%
6% 6%
4% 4%
2% 2%
0% 0%
2005 2006 2007F 2008F 2009F 2005 2006 2007 2008F 2009F
Est Lat Lit Est Lat Lit
(16)
(17)
International Banking
SEKm
• Continued strong lending growth in Ukrainian
100
Banking, + 112% to SEK 11bn in 2007
75
• Loan loss ratio, net in Ukrainian Banking
50
decreased after adjusting calculation method
25
to Swedbank Group’s principles
0
• Annual lending growth in Russian Banking
-25
was 50% to SEK 10bn
-50
• Following positive court rulings regarding VAT
-75 dispute in leasing operations, a reversal of
-100 SEK 60m was made in Russian Banking
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
06 06 06 07 07 07 07 • Lending in Nordic branches more than
doubled in 2007, reaching SEK 13bn.
International Banking, profit for the period
of which Russian Banking
of which Ukrainian Banking Operations
(18)
Business areas
Swedish Baltic Internat. Swedbank Asset
Banking Banking Banking Markets Mgmt
2007 vs 2006, SEKm 2007 % 2007 % 2007 % 2007 % 2007 %
Net interest income 11,701 5,667 986 1,343 83
Net commission income 4,504 1,854 196 1,441 1,868
Other income 1,473 1,252 97 773 232
Total income 17,678 4 8,773 42 1,279 3,557 1 2,183 19
Staff costs 4,296 2,044 405 1,239 425
Other expenses 4,704 1,502 366 753 463
Total expenses 9,000 3 3,546 32 771 1,992 3 888 31
Profit before loan losses 8,678 5 5,227 50 508 1,565 0 1,295 13
Loan losses 71 450 170 0 0
Operating profit 8,607 -2 4,777 49 338 1,565 -1 1,295 13
Tax 2,413 455 70 427 320
Profit for the period 6,194 4,322 268 1,138 975
To Swedbank's
shareholders 6,182 –2 4,322 46 268 1,010 3 975 11
Return on allocated equity % 23.2 31.2 6.9 24.2 57.0
(19)
Key figures
Jan - Dec, Jan - Dec,
2007 2006
Return on equity, % 18.9 19.3
Earnings per share, SEK 23.28 21.11
Equity per share, SEK 131.96 116.37
C/I ratio before loan losses 0.51 0.52
Loan loss ratio, net, % 0.07 – 0.02
Share of impaired loans, % 0.13 0.07
Dividend, SEK* 9.00 8.25
Tier 1 capital ratio, new principles, % 8.5 -
Tier 1 capital ratio, transition principles, % 6.2 6.5 **
Capital adequacy ratio, new principles, % 12.7 9.8 **
(20)
Tier-1 ratio, Group
% %
10 10 • Tier 1 ratio amounted to 8.5%
9 9
• Tier 1 ratio, according to transition
8 8
principles, was 6.2%
7 7
6 6 • As of January 1, 2008, tier 1 ratio
5 5 according to transition principles,
4 4 increased by 31 bps due to the gradual
3 3
implementation of Basel 2 regulations.
2 2
1 1
0 0
Q1-05
Q2-05
Q3-05
Q4-05
Q1-06
Q2-06
Q3-06
Q4-06
Q1-07
Q2-07
Q3-07
Q4-07
Swedbank Group,
excl. Swedbank Swedbank
49% 51%
Mortgage Mortgage
SEK 542bn SEK 561bn
(22)
Swedbank Mortgage – Credit Risk
31-dec
700
Municipalities
Commercial 3% (4) Agriculture
6% (6) 600
buildings
1% (1)
500
400
Multi-family housing
SEKm
incl. Condominium
associations 300
16% (17)
200
100
Single-family homes
Individual 61% (61) 0
condominiums
13% (11)
-100
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Credit losses
= 90% Residential loans -Net recoveries during 2007
Net
70,00
3000
60,00
2500
50,00
%
40,00 2000
SEKm
30,00 1500
20,00 1000
10,00
500
0,00
0
<30% 30-60% 60-75% 75-85% >85%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Distribution of loan to value
(24)
Swedbank Mortgage – Long Term Funding
Swedbank Mortgage - Long Term Funding
250 000
200 000
150 000
100 000
50 000
0
<1y 1-2y 2-3y 3-4y 4-5y >5y
Action plan:
• Conversion to covered bonds during Q2, 2008 and covered bond issues, approx. EUR 6.0bn
• Continuous activities in the market for private placements, approx. EUR 1.5bn
• Continuous issues on tap in the Swedish mortgage bond market under existing mortgage
bond programme, approx. EUR 7.5bn
• The issue of a new 5-year Swedish benchmark bond Swedbank Mortgage 177
• The maturity of SPI173 in June, 2008 is smaller than the average yearly maturing domestic
benchmark bond
(25)
Additional questions?
Johannes Rudbeck
Investor relations
johannes.rudbeck@swedbank.se
+46858593322