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Journal of Marketing Theory and Practice

ISSN: 1069-6679 (Print) 1944-7175 (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/mmtp20

Explaining and Predicting Consumer Intention to


Purchase Over the Internet: An Exploratory Study

Ronald E. Goldsmith

To cite this article: Ronald E. Goldsmith (2002) Explaining and Predicting Consumer Intention
to Purchase Over the Internet: An Exploratory Study, Journal of Marketing Theory and Practice,
10:2, 22-28, DOI: 10.1080/10696679.2002.11501913

To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10696679.2002.11501913

Published online: 07 Dec 2015.

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Download by: [University of California, San Diego] Date: 04 March 2016, At: 05:59
EXPLAINING AND PREDICTING CONSUMER
INTENTION TO PURCHASE OVER THE
INTERNET: AN EXPLORATORY STUDY

Ronald E. Goldsmith
Florida State University
Downloaded by [University of California, San Diego] at 05:59 04 March 2016

This study tested a model that organizes and presents factors that lead consumers to buy online. The model contained four
. explanatory variables (generalized innovativeness, innovativeness toward online buying, involvement with the Internet, and
frequency ofInternet use) and two response variables (amount of past purchasing done over the Internet and likelihood of future
online purchase). A sample of 107 undergraduates reported their Internet-related attitudes and behaviors in the context of a
longitudinal survey of purchasing behavior. Path analysis showed that a slightly modified model fit the data well. Frequency
of online buying and intent to buy online in the future were predicted by general innovativeness, an innovative predisposition
toward buying online, and involvement with the Internet. Thus, these appear to be important predictors of online buying that can
help profile consumers for marketing strategy.

INTRODUCTION BACKGROUND

As ecommerce grows in size and importance, marketing and People use the Internet for many reasons (see UCLA 2000, p.
consumer researchers devote more effort to studying 10). The domain of activities where Internet use and
Consumer Internet Behavior or how consumers make the consumption behavior overlap can be called Consumer
Internet a part of their consumption lives (Peterson et al. 1997; Internet Behavior. These activities include gathering
Cowles and Kiecker 2000). The topic of this study was online consumption information through exposure to advertising;
buying as a key component of consumer use of the Internet. shopping, which includes browsing, comparing products, and
The study was stimulated by questions regarding the deliberate information search; and online buying of goods,
motivating forces leading to online buying and to future services, and information (Goldsmith and Bridges 2000).
. intentions to buy online. Part of this concern came from the Most research into consumer Internet behavior has been
needs of ecommerce managers to understand why consumers descriptive in nature, yielding statistical information on what
buy online so that they can develop effective strategies to is purchased online and the demographic characteristics of
encourage consumers to access their web sites to spend time online buyers (e.g., Modahl 2000; Murphy 2000). Some
and money (Aldridge et al. 1997; Wysocki 2000). Another research has expanded beyond simple descriptions to explicit
concern was theoretical. Consumer behavior researchers and hypothesis testing regarding factors that influence online
theorists need to study Consumer Internet Behavior in order to buying (e.g., Degeratu, Rangaswamy, and Wu 2000; Phau and
determine how well existing consumer theory can be applied Poon 2000). Finally, a few attempts have been made to
to ecommerce and where new theories and models need to be develop models of online buying (e.g., Limayem et al. 2000).
developed (Cowles and Kiecker 2000; Phau and Poon 2000). The present study takes its place in this domain by proposing
To these ends, a model was developed (see Figure lA) a model of some characteristics of consumers that predispose
describing some reasons why consumers vary in amount of them to buy online and their intentions to buy online in the
online buying and in their intention to buy online in the future. future and by testing the model empirically.
The model was empirically tested and modified. Although the Causal modeling is an essential feature of marketing and
study is exploratory (Diamantopoulos and Siguaw 2000, p. consumer research for at least three reasons (Kenny 1979, p.
103), the modified model provides a basis for future model 5):
development. 1. Since most researchers either implicitly or
explicitly construct models, a formal development

22 Journal of Marketing THEORY AND PRACTICE


of the method would assist these researchers. of the product category (Taylor 1977; Goldsmith 1995).
2. Causal modeling can assist the development, Anlount of use can be hypothesized to be a function of how
modification, and extension of measurement and involved (interested and enthusiastic) consumers are with the
substantive theory. Internet (H4) and of how innovative they are in general (H5).
3. Causal modeling can give marketing a strong basis Higher levels of product .involvement are associated with
for applying theory to solving marketing problems. greater product use in many studies (Flynn and Goldsmith
1993). General innovativeness is positively linked to usage
Structural models allow researchers to explicitly incorporate (Goldsmith et al. 1998). Descriptions of Internet use have
measurement error into their models to assess its influence on shown. that users. are more open to new technology than non-
the model fit. Moreover, developing and testing models users (Modahl 2000; Murphy 2000). Thus, there is a
allows researchers to study interdependent relationships among hypothesized positive path from global innovativeness to
multiple variables simultaneously, thereby providing a more Internet iIinovativeness (H6). Goldsmith et al. (1996) showed
. veridical view of the reality of the phenomena of interest. that global innovativeness, conceptualized and measured as a
Models of online buying represent an opportunity to develop willingness to try new things, was positively correlated with
key model constructs and their operationalizations in order to innovativeness for a specific product category. Finally, (H7)
enhance explanations of this aspect of consumer behavior for innovativeness for a product 'category is highly correlated with
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both marketing theorists and practitioners. involvement with that category (Flynn and Goldsmith 1993;
Goldsmith 1995). Thus, the model contains seven positive
A few attempts have been made to model consumer Internet paths.
behavior. Eastlick and Lotz (1999) used logistic regression to
test hypotheses regarding personal characteristics that function FIGUREl
as antecedents of online buying. While not proposing a true A MODEL OF BUYING ONLINE
A: FintModtJ
model of online buying, their research did find evidence for
the influence of key variables predisposing consumers to buy I...O_I_Db_al_ _ _ _tl H5 .06. ~ IlntemetUIO ~
online. A positive relationship between personal .26. Ffl,\.07
innovativeness and intent to shop online was detected, as well H6 ;:&.1r-Onlin-'-D--' HI .66· I LWIy
as a positive influence oftelevision shopping and intent to use
the Internet, implymg that the earliest online buyers were
H4 .04
r"lntem--et-,-..,.....-,/~I·In_ . P' 1.10/
H3
Buying
L.-..:.....::.-.J---_
to)3uy

heavy users of other electronic shopping media. Citrin et aI. ~--------~ m •


(2000) proposed a simple model in which Internet uSe arid
I!it.IDlIiw
personal innovativeness were both positively related to self- C'wlth 7 dearus offreedom - 30.9.p - .00007
Samdanllzcd root mem sguano ....iduaJ - .11 IDa - .2601 -I-·.16Inv +'27.4Ezr. a' - .O({1
reported online shopping. Limayem et al. (2000) developed a GoodnoA ofl'tt-.92 U.. - .0S9Gl -I- ~036lnv -I- 3A&r, a' - .029-
more complex model containing a variety of constructs Ac\jllltoci Cloodneu ofPIt - .76 Bay - .D96YIm ....06BU.. + .6!1Bn-. it' • .30
Nonaeci Pit lIuIox - .79 Like - .66Buy ... .SIijirr. R.' - .43 '
hypothesized to be related to Internet shopping. Again, Ncm-Nonned PIt IDcIcx - .60
Comp~ve Fit lDdIIlC -.82
personal innovativeness was positively associated with
intentions to shop, which were in tum positively associated
with Internet shopping. Thus, although the present study was B: Secimd Model
conducted independently and before these other studies were
published, it contains some of the same constructs and
hypothetical relationships. I OlDbal
Proposed Model and Hypotheses

Consumer intentions to behave are an important concept as


they represent the best estimate of future behavior available to
market researchers (Kalwani and Silk 1982). Thus, "likelihood
'of future online buying" appears as the ultimate dependent
variable in the model. Since past behavior is a good predictor
ll1lDdiw...
of future behavior (Bentler and Speckart 1981), the first Cl'withs daJ!l'llll afhcdam -lO.7.p- .OSB
hypothesized relationship in the model is a positive link from Stmsdanllzed lOot IDOII1 oqUIIio naldvl! - .019 ' iDD -.26Gl -I- .loSInv -t 27.4B1r. as ••067
000dD_ ofP'rt~.97 UIO - .0S9GI -I- .036la.v + JABn-. r· .029
current level of online buying to intent to buy online in the Adjllllcd Goociuui ofPk - .87 Buy - .0961n1l'" .D68U...... 69Bn-. R.'-.30
Nazmocl P'JlllIdox - .93 LIke- .OSBIlm -I- .46Buy +.0231Dv -I- .47llzr. a' - .5.
future. Current online buying is hypothesized to be a function Nan-Nazmocl Pit Index - .87
of two constructs: (H2) amount of Internet use and (H3) Comparallve PIt Inclex - .!16

Internet innovativeness. Those who use the Internet more are


likely to buy more online than those who use it less (Feather
2000, p. 300), and how innovative a consumer is regarding a .
product category is positively related to the amount purchased

Spring 20()2 23
METHOD the consumer deems the product to be. To represent amount
of Internet Use, the respondents were asked to report the
The data came from a convenience sample of 117 average number of hours per day they spent on the Internet in
undergraduate business students at a large southeastern US the past week. These estimates ranged from 0 hours (only one
university who participated for extra course credit. Student person) to 10 hours (three respondents) per day in the last
consumers are an appropriate sample because they represent week. The majority (54.5%) reported using the Internet 1 to
the younger end of the market for online buying that cyber 2 hours per day during the week. This usage is similar to that
marketers want to attract owing to their long-term potential as reported by the Georgia Institute of Technology's Graphics,
affluent customers (ModahI2000). Lack of randomness in the Visualization and Usability (GVU) tenth survey of Internet
sample, however, limits generalizability of the point and usage.
interval estimates to a larger population; but since the main
purpose of the study was to develop a model of online buying, TABLE ONE
MEASURES, FACTOR LOADINGS, AND RELIABILITY
this is a minor limitation (Calder et al. 1981). To participate
in a longitudinal survey of several aspects of consumption, the
Scale Items Factor Factor Coefficient
students completed a questionnaire at the start of the semester Loadinf( Alpha
in January, a second questionnaire about seven weeks later, Internet Innovativeness •
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and a final one at the end of the semester in April, fifteen In general, I am the last in my circle of .815
weeks after the first. Complete responses to the measures . friends to know the names of the latest
places to shop on the Internet.
were obtained from 107 survey participants. I know more about shopping over the .802
Internet than other people.
Demographic items appeared in the first questionnaire asking In general, I am among the last in my .756
the students to report their age, gender, class standing, and circle of friends to purchase something
race. They were also given six categories to report the socio- over the Internet..
economic status of their families that ranged from "Unskilled Compared to my friends, I do little .706
worker, perhaps unemployed," to "the local elite with inherited shopping over the Internet.
wealth and family tradition." Ages ranged from 20 to 37 years If I heard that a new product that I was .643
with a mean of21.9 years (SD =2.3). There were 58 men and interested in was available over the
Internet, I would be interested enough to
59 women in the sample. Twenty-four of the .respondents buy it.
(20.5%) were juniors; the rest were seniors. The distribution I will consider buying something over the .462 .85
of race categories was very close to that of the university as Internet, even if I haven't heard of it
whole: 89 white (76.1 %),15 black (12.8%), 7 Hispanics (6%), before.
and 6 other (5.1 %). The distribution for socio-economic status
Global Innovativeness b
was: 3 elite (2.6%),19 executive (16.2%), 46 business owners I am generally open to accepting new .880
(39.3%), 34 white-collar workers (29.1%), 13 semi-skilled ideas.
workers (11.1%), 1 unskilled (.9%), and 1 missing. There I am willing to trv new things. .798
were no statistically significant (p < .05) relationships among I tend to feel new ways of living and .726
the demographic variables other than seniors were older than doing things are improvements over the
past.
juniors, and socio-economic status was not independent from I feel that I am an innovative person. .660 .85
race.
Internet Involvement e
Items measuring the six variables in the model appeared in the Excitinf( - - - - - - Unexcitinf( .870
second and third questionnaires (see Table 1). The Domain Mundane - - - - - - Fascinatinf( .832
Uninvolvinf( - - - - - - Involvinf( .687
Specific Innovativeness Scale (Goldsmith and Hofacker 1991) Appealinf( - - - - - - Unappealinf( .628
appeared in the second questionnaire. The items were written Interestinf( - - - - - - Uninteresting .435
to measure how innovative consumers are with regard to Valuable - - - - - - - Worthless .805
buying over the Internet. Summed scores formed the measure Important - - - - - - - Unimportant .776
of Internet Innovativeness. 'Fhe third questionnaire contained Irrelevant - - - - - - - Relevant .632
Needed - - - - - - - Not Needed .503
measures of the remaining variables representing Internet-
Means nothing to me - - - - Means a lot to .399 .89
related buying. A general predisposition to be innovative, to me
be willing to try new things, was measured by four items from • Used a five-pomt "agree-disagree" response format.
Hurt, Joseph, and Cook's (1977) scale. These were summed to b Used a seven-point "agree-disagree" response format.
e Seven response points separated the pairs of adjectives.
represent Global Innovativeness. The ten items of
Zaichkowsky's Personal Involvement Inventory were summed
to measure Internet Involvement. Zaichkowsky (I994) chose Three questions measured amo~nt of Online Buying. The first
these bi-polar adjective pairs to measure two elements of asked "How often would you say that you purchase online?"
involvement with products, (I) how interested and excited the and used a five-point response format where 1 = never, 2 =
consumer is with regard to the product and (2) how important rarely, 3 = sometimes, 4 = often, and 5 = very often. The
second question asked " ... how often do you purchase

24 Journal of Marketing THEORY AND PRACTICE


TABLE 2
DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS AND CORRELATIONS
Descriptive Statistics Correlations

Variable Range Mean SD Skew Kurtosis I 2 3 4 5 6

I. Global 4-28 21.5 4.0 -1.8 4.79 15.7 -.06 .12 .18 -.03 .01
Innovativeness

2. Internet 34-70 61.1 6.4 -.98 2.09 -1.5 41.4 .12 .18 .20* .30**
Involvement

3. Internet Use 0-10 2.1 1.9 2.4 7.51 .88 1.4 3.5 .27** .27** .26**

4. Internet 6-28 17.8 5.4 -.42 -.60 3.9 6.1 2.7 29.4 .55** .60**
Innovativeness

5. Online Buying -1.1-4.2 0.0 1.0 1.9 6.5 -.11 1.3 .50 3.0 1.0 .66**
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6. Likelihood to 1-5 3.5 1.0 -.15 -5.6 .03 1.9 .48 3.2 .66 1.3
Buy
Note: Pearson correlations above the dIagonal, vanances on the dIagonal, and covarlances below the dIagonal
* Correlation is significant at the .05 level (2-tailed).
** Correlation is significant at the .0 I level (2-tailed).

online?" using a six-point response fonnat where I = I never involvement were factor analyzed using the principal axis
do, 2 = less than once a month, 3 = less than once every two (common factor analysis) method in SPSS. Factor loadings
weeks, but more than once a month, 4 = only about once every appear in Table 1. These analyses showed the global
two weeks, 5 = about once a week, and 6 = more than once a innovativeness and Internet innovativeness scales to be
week. The third item asked respondents to record "How many unidimensional. Zaichkowsky's (1994) scale is composed of
times have you bought something online since January 1, two factors, representing interest and importance, and these
2000?" Since these three questions used different were apparent in the factor analysis. For the purposes of the
measurement scales, the responses were intercorrelated and present study, the involvement scale was treated as a
submitted to a principal components analysis. Only one unidimensional scale. Factor analyzing the 21 multi-scale
principal component with an eigenvalue greater than 1.0 was items together showed that the items from each scale loaded
extracted. It accounted for 84% of the variance in the on the same factor and not on the factors containing the other
correlation matrix. Factor scores were computed by the scale's items, indicating good discriminant validity (or no item
regression method to create a composite variable representing overlap) for the items. Computing Cronbach's alpha assessed
extent of online buying. Only 28 (24%) of the participants had internal consistency of the multi-item scales. These results
not bought online when the measure was taken. The high were sufficiently high for the purposes of the present study
proportion of online buyers in the sample may have resulted (see Table 1). Table 2 presents the descriptive statistics for all
from two contributing factors: (1) the universal availability of six variables in the model. Tests ofnonnality showed that few
the Internet to students on this college campus and (2) the of the individual items and none of the summed scales were
young age of the population, with its accompanying nonnally distributed. This lack of nonnality and the small
experience with computers and other technology. sample size suggested a path analysis instead of a structural
equation analysis. Path analysis is a "method for studying the
Finally, a single question asked "Regardless of how much you direct and indirect effects of variables taken as causes of
buy online now, how likely are you to buy online in the variables taken as effects" (Pedhazur 1982, p. 580). The
coming year?" and used a five-point response fonnat where 1 procedure described by Joreskog and Sorbom (1993, pp. 10-
= Definitely won't buy on-line, 2 = probably won't buy on-line, 15) was followed.
3 = might buy on-line, 4 = probably will buy on-line, and 5 =
definitely will buy on-line. This item measured how Likely to The six variables were intercorrelated, and the covariance
Buy Online the respondents thought they would be. Over half matrix was input to LlSREL 8 (see Table 2). Figure IA
of the participants (50.9%) said they definitely or probably presents the initial model proposed to account for online
would buy over the Internet in the coming year, while only buying and likelihood of future online buying. The fit indices
13.4% said they either definitely or probably would not buy. show that this first model did not provide a good fit. While
future online buying intentions were positively related to
RESULTS current and past online buying, as hypothesized, only Internet
Innovativeness (but not Internet use) was significantly related
Items from the three multi-items scales measuring global to online buying. In tJ,lrn, both Global Innovativeness and
innovativeness, Internet innovativeness, and Internet Internet Involvement were related to Internet Innovativeness,

Spring 2002 25
but neither was related to Internet Use. The modification Another implication is that amount ofInternet use may not be
indices provided by LISREL suggested changes to improve the a good indicator of buying on the Internet. Three possible
model fit. The first path added was a direct link from Internet explanations for this present themselves. First, the measure of
Innovativeness to Likely to Buy. Freeing this path improved Internet use may not be reliable or valid. Asking for estimates
the fit of the model substantially. A second change was of one week's use may not capture the true information
subsequently suggested by the modification indices, freeing because consumers can not remember or estimate their actual
the path from Internet Involvement to Likely to Buy. After use or are unwilling to reveal it. Also, weekly variations in
freeing this second path, the model was reestimated, and this use may render this specific measure unreliable. Second, the
revised model is shown in Figure 1B. The revised model not construct's position in the model may be inaccurate. The
only fit the data well, the paths added on the basis of the proper causal relationship may be that buying over the Internet
modification indices make good substantial sense (Joreskog results in more use over time, so the causal order among the
and Sorbom, 1993, p. 128; Diamantopoulos and Siguaw 2000, variables should be changed. Third, use may not in fact be
p. 109). Other models were tested, but none fit the data as related to buying. Consumers use the Web for many activities
well as the second model; and demographics were unrelated to (Nie and Erbring 2000), so amount of buying may simply be
any of the Internet variables. lost in the total amount of other activity. This suggests that the
measure of amount of Internet use should be changed or the
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DISCUSSION concept removed from the model.

The purpose of the present study was to develop and to The addition of direct paths from Internet innovativeness and
empirically test a model of the relationships among constructs Internet involvement to future intent to buy, while suggested
hypothesized to lead consumers to buy online and to form by the path analysis, make good substantial sense. It is
future online buying intentions. Data from a survey of 117 plausible that consumers who are both interested in the
student consumers and path analysis were used to test the Internet and have an innovative disposition toward it may have
model. The results suggest that global innovativeness, formed intentions to buy that are independent of past and
involvement with the Internet, and Internet innovativeness all current buying activity. They may not be able to afford what
playa role in explaining online buying and buying intentions. they want to buy, what they want to buy may not be available
These findings agree with discussions ofthe Internet that claim at the present time, they may be delaying online purchase for
that consumers who are more innovative and adventuresome, some external reason, or there may be circumstances beyond
who want to try new types of technology, and who are their control (e.g., season of the year) which delay online
intrigued with the Internet as a gadget or gizmo are the ones buying. Concluding that these two direct paths are valid,
most likely to engage in ecommerce (Modahl 2000; Murphy however, must await future tests of the model with new data.
2000). The results are also consistent with other studies that
have found similar relationships between innovativeness and
online consumer behavior (Eastlick and Lotz 1999; Citrin et al. One surprising finding was the minor influence of Internet
2000; Limayem et al. 2000). involvement, either in the bivariate analyses or the path
analysis. Past studies (Flynn and Goldsmith 1993; Goldsmith
The modeling approach and this study in particular have both 1995) suggest large correlations between involvement and
advantages and disadvantages. The model tests the both innovativeness and purchasing. The weak path may
simultaneous relationships among the set of variables instead reflect a "ceiling effect" in that the overall distribution of
of focusing only on pairs of variables and bivariate analysis. involvement scores was shifted to the high end of the scale,
Thus, it gives us a more accurate picture of the phenomena with a mean of 61.1, close to the maximum of 70 and far from
under study. Moreover, the model in the present study is the theoretical mean of 40. In effect, most of these consumers
consistent with both previous empirical research and indicated they found the Internet extremely involving, so there
speculation about consumer Internet behavior. One of its was little variance in this measure. Future study of consumers
shortcomings, however, is that it omits critical variables, who vary more in involvement might reveal the strong
which are likely to account for addition variation in buying and correlation between involvement and innovativeness that one
buying intentions, beyond what the limited set of variables it expects to find.
contains can do (Diamantopoulos and Siguaw 2000, p. 13).
Future theory development and empirical study should The large, positive path between buying and intent to buy
concentrate on adding new variables to the model to give it suggests that online buyers must be relatively satisfied with
greater explanatory and predictive power. One possible the activity. The model could be improved by adding a
approach would be to add specific attitudes toward buying measure of satisfaction with online buying to assess
online, to represent, for example, concerns with safety and empirically the role of this construct in explaining future
ease of use, which have been argued to influence consumers' intent. Moreover, while thiS study did not include satisfaction,
likelihood of online buying (Cowles and Kiecker 2000; one can infer that, as many have suggested (e.g., Murphy
Goldsmith and Bridges 2000; Phau and Po on 2000; 2000), dissatisfaction with online buying will drive consumers
Vijayasarathy and Jones 2000). away from specific sites and, if pervasive, from buying online

26 Journal of Marketing THEORY AND PRACTICE


altogether; so that customer satisfaction should be a paramount while dissatisfied buyers will look elsewhere. Thus, web sites
managerial concern. Also, for ecommerce firms, the findings and order fulfillment efforts should focus on enhancing
suggest that current and future buyers are more adventuresome customer satisfaction. Second, it still seems to be the case that
and innovative consumers. They may be attracted to the novel, online buyers are more innovative with regard to ecommerce
stimulating features of online buying. Those who haven't than the majority of consumers.
bought online and hesitate to do so need different strategies
that appeal to their unique motivations and attitudes. These Future studies should test the model using larger samples of
should be studied to help ecommerce. consumers and multiple measures of the constructs to permit
use of structural equation modeling instead of path analysis.
The findings from this study, when added to the growing body Random sampling from other populations should provide the
of knowledge of consumer Internet behavior, yield several data to increase generalizability of the findings. Additional
implications for ecommerce managers. First, once consumers constructs should be added to the model to improve its
have been enticed to buy online, they are likely to continue to explanatory and predictive ability. Such efforts will result in
do so. Although the present study did not explicitly model a better understanding of this aspect of Consumer Internet
satisfaction, the evidence clearly shows that satisfied buyers Behavior to the benefit of both consumer theory and
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will be more likely to return to a web site and purchase again, management practice.

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AUTHOR BIOGRAPHY

Dr. Ronald E. Goldsmith (Ph.D. University of Alabama in Tuscaloosa) is currently professor of marketing at the Florida
State University. His articles have appeared in the Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, the Journal of
Advertising, the Journal ofBusiness Research, the Service Industries Journal, the Journal ofRetailing, Marketing
Intelligence and Planning, the European Journal ofMarketing, and others. His research interests include developing
measures of consumer behavior constructs, diffusion of innovations, and personality in consumer behavior.

28 Journal ofMarketing THEORY AND PRACTICE

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