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    ( ong Rueschemaver, Dietrich and Jol D. Stephens, 199%. “Comparing Histor Sanne ~A Poca ad oro fanaa Cenpae Si seo 3872. Rucschemayer, Dicerch, Evelyne Huber Stephens, snd Job D. Stephens, 12, Captabie Devalpovone and Bencerssy. Chicago: University of Chieago Pres Salrvon, Wesley. 196, Sentife Explaueon a che Cancel Strumtere of be Medd Princeton, NF: Prineston University es Sarwor, Giovanni. WHT, Theory of Bemeracy Revised, Chatham, NI than ric. 199}, Maferw Eatin clseroum Reverie Boller, CO: Wesco, Sewell, Willan HL, Jr. 1996."Tlnce Bp, 285-30 in’ The Hirtris Tarn in she Homan Scewces, caved by J. MleDonild, Ana Arbor: University of Mbchigan Press, Skocpol, Theda. 1979. Sher and Sail Rewind Crnporarise suds of Frame Huet sf Ghia, Carobeige: Cabrilge Univeriey Press 1994. *Reflosions on Recent Sehalarshipaboot Social Revabutionsand How re Stuy Them.” Bp, 301-44 in Socie# Revi inthe Mader Hart, etd by ‘Thea Shospal, Cambridge; Cambridge University Pres, Skncpal, Theda and Margaret Somers. 180. “The Uses of Campicatve History in Macrosacal iquir.” Conger Sts Suicey and Fiery 22 17, Soult, Sc 176, Compan Masa Sui Sees. glenood CS, Hl Sornees, Margaret R. 1992. "Norsativiy, Narsarive Ment and Seal Action: Rex thinking English Worhing-Clas Fammation." SncnlSceuce Fiowry16-552-6, Sure, Kubin. 1996, “Beyorul History versus “Theory: Sutegic Narrative and Bocinlogies| Explanadon,” Smistgital Meru und Rercarck 24 D432. Wiekham-Crowley, Lint: 1992. Cherri and Nessun in Latin sierice Al Gpuraiie Side of Ieseryrms mad Regimes Since 1956. Princeton, Ne Princeton Universiy Press Xshas, Deborah 11997, Demuaiag Deutsniss Refir and Reston in Crt Rien ‘om Gusnests, 18704-1940, Sunland, CA: Stanford Universicy Pres, a7 Aligning Ontology and Methodology in Comparative Research Peter A, Hall Some ofthe liveliest debatesalout uethoxlology in the social sieaes center oon comparative research, This essay concentrates on comparative politics, 2 Geld often defined by reference we the use of a particular “comparativn omethod,” but it also bears on sociology, whore there is active comtaversy ‘about methodological issues. [use the term “methadoloyy” to eefer tthe scans scholars employ to increase confidence hat che inferences they make shout the socal and politcal world ate valid! ‘The moseimportanc ofthese areinferences about causal eationships, where the object afamethodalogy is to increase confidence in assertions that one variable ar event (s) exerts a causal effect om another {y). ‘One of the curious Feaures of contemporaty debates is that they pay more attention to methodology than to issues of uatology? “Oncology” ‘Lan grt wa Sorel Weer, Suse Dacye, sae Heaunscele, Tim Dishe, Did Cale, ‘ere Guarvtey Lar Migr, Baul Berm Jim Shawh, alien Stay Paul Steaber ‘Chrisdan Tat, Laurence Whitehend nd the elites af his volume for comments entice seesons ofthe aj, and ua Groepar2 Eker far any ucwsices, Tete to both internal” and “terol” validity wherethe former refers tecwofilenee tha the relidanhip che researcher penies berwcen x andy acral essa in he eaze at and and erst cunfence Gen ects rib, he ame seltzer cases liberty clawed ws heft on wh hea canceneaas id inwolresether ts, schathe lero! ‘feo aed the cnublstcent of ning exe, 9 which ae of madelgialiaves bat conered bee pp 2 The ae ado eet hiserdon, ining che ploneting workof Ragin (155, 2000) In sri, ther i lies Bory dete stot epee whi Tie a ht Susy oft ean toe singed iy inereis ken res and pesemoseniam owes a pet ee etal el eon 19% Geblcharp 197 Arar cca. 1008, sa alt refers (0 the cherseter of the world as ir accoally ig. Accordingly, I use the roem to refer to dhe fundamental assumpsions selushies wuike about the nature of the social and political world and especially ubout the nature of causel relodonships within thne world, Ifa methadolngy cansists of teche ‘iques for making observasions about causal relasions, an ontology con- -siss of premises about the deca causal structures of the world from which analysis begins and withaue which thearies aboue the sacial world would spor make sense, Ata fundamental level i i how we imagine the social sworl ro be. Used as itis here to refer to a see of assumptions, of course, an ontul- gy ig a theoretical eonstruet, ancl che line between it anu! the “thearios" of social sclenee isa fine ane. However, use use term to refer ca espe- cially funelamencal assumptions abou the causal structures af the social ar polities! world that may or nay not be explicit in a theory but are always implicit in the “aniddle-range” theories on which most comparativsts con- eenirme, In this sespece, ontologies are unalngons #0 the "scciaeconamic machines” that Cartwright (1997) posits ax the indispensable antecedent for more specific causal statements. Many theories about a phenomenon, such as stable democracy, neacarparstit arrangements, or political rolee- ance, share che same overarching ontology, but different theories can also reference different oatolagis. ‘Ontology is ultimarely erucial rn mw#heclology because the approprince ness ofa particular set of mctheds for a ven problem curs un assumpcions about tke nurure af the causal selatios they are meant co discover, It mmabes line seneeta apply methods desigrel mmesablish the presence of functional relationships, for instance, ifwe confronca world ia which causal relation shipsare not funetional. To be valid che methodologier ced in a field must by congruent with its prevailing ontologies. Tos jee alvious. “Hlowever, my analysis is motivated by the observacion dhata substancal gup has opened up between the methodologies popular in comparative politics andl the ontologies dhe Buld embraces. Compacative politics is a nee with snany euerents but, as Lijphare (1975, p. 165) neces, ther been “a postwar trend in cemnparative politics” towarl statistical methads, based preeminently an the standard rogeession model? InPucatial texts now give priority tm such approaches, and may scholars have become critical of other methods (Geddes 1990; King, Keuhane, and Vecba 1994, * The current popalariey of wnledsensseesione ine seicaseyrowiansis ane mania fshin rend, 374 “Aligning Qotolagy aral Metololegy Goldchorpe 1997), Over the same perind, the ontologies of the field have moved in a different direction: toward theories, such as those based on path dependence or srateyic interaction, whose conceptions of the cams seructuces undeelying outcomes are-ac odds with dhe assumptions reqpited for sandard regression teelenigues and conventional comparative method ve provide valid coisa inferences (ef, Bates, Greif, Levi, Roventhl, anc ‘Weingast 1998; Pierson 2000a}. The onsologies of comparacive policies have substantially outrun its medbodulogies. ‘The purpuse of this essay isto reexarning the aligoment ofuntalugy and sncthodolagy in comparative polities with a-view se establishing the ray- aioude of the prablem and potential solutions fr it, Tt hegins wie a br accounc of the deselapment af the field in order to shows hor ontologies and methodologies developed in tndem. I then-cximine the canremporary slivergonce beaveen ontology and methodelogy in more detail. After re» ‘iewing several response: to that divergence, argue that smull-N research designs based on tic process analysis offer considerible potential for resolving the dilemmas posed by this eiveryence. [conclude by noting ‘ts implications of these developmencs for conventional underscondings of vase studies and the comparative metho, ‘Thre Development of Ontology ated Metboulology in Comparative Politics A complece sucvey of how the intricate relationships between oncology and nethedology developed in comparative policies is beyond the scope of this essay: However, a synoptic review will illustrate how chese two sides of scholarship developed in tandem. At the cost of sonue simplification, we ram see haw the field hac moved eo ies eurrene erase ars ‘As Eckstein (1963) points nut, the modern field of comparative politics ccigieaced with the snudy of constitutions and legal systems, This was the bocigvrl “natinutionalism The approach focuscd on the formal institutions of governance and, while appropriately cynieal abou their more ceremonial feawures, tended 10 assume that one could say most of what needed 10 be 4 Far mare enteaiveeviens of therstical development inthe Geld of omparaie poles ‘ee Eaten and Apar (1962), Dll and fTardzeare (1972), Ciloste€1 981), anal Lchbac ted Zesbermss (927). said obout the pucks of mation by describing its legal system and nation history (cf Bagehut 1847; Wlonn [89% Friedrich 1950; Eckstein and pro 1963), Frucn dhe perspective af causality, the ontology vaderlying the field ‘was cireumseribed, Although the nacueal world is said to be governed by Lavlike regularities, che fiona oF he polivieal weld were sce primarily as the produet afmational histories. [n this respect, che incipient fieht oF comparative poliies was less developed than dhove of soctology, OF economies, where Mars, Weber, Durkicim, Marshal, end others a begun to posit general causal forces dziving social and p “The methods adopted by the pioneers in this fick were apprupriate to such an ontology. The wialyses werg Icgely desceiptive, often idioe eraphic in the sense thos they sought complete understaniling of one case rucher dhan generalizations that could travel aeross ease, and their rien tation +as frequently nocmative, Where the early comparativises engaged in eausal explanation, they adopted the methods of historians focused on, Hetailed narrative about the chain of events leading up to a phenomenon, Crose-natiaeal comparison concentrated primarily aa formel institutions Altkougls the study of American politice became more sophistieate in the interwar years, following the paths blazed by Bentley (1908), Lasswell 0946), and Scuatschneider (1935), che ambitions of eemparstive politics remained ciccumspect, lis methods were appropekae to its ontology, bit, ‘de Laver miicaced against systematic exoss-national generalization. ‘The Comporstive Revalunon In this enmtext, developsnesits:in te field during the 1950s and 1960s were! genuinely revolutionary. Although ofen conserucd as methodolagical, they ‘were initially ontological. Following American studies that found mbole new diittensions to politics hidden bencatl the facial goweramencal sy- tent, in the clash of social imterests and the operation af political machines, the field expanded its conception uf what lay within the purvicw of political inquiry. Secking cemns with which tn characterize the broader ambit of tit new politics, Easton (1983, 1963} and Almond (1956; Amend and Porvell 1966) summed for inspiration to Parsonss (1951) view af social relations a5 strucuired patterns of roles and belies fostered by an overarching social system (of. Mecton 1949). They esnerged with 2 concept of the “political aystem™ whose operntian wal stuctured nat only by gaveraunental inst tutions, ut by a wide range of formal and isforuval relationships among individuals, rooted in the secondary associations of a nation or ics political | 376 1g Ontology and Mechadology setofvalues ur attitudes often affeccve or norma ‘ec in nature (Almond and Verba 1963). This expansion ia the scope of alia inquiry was the fest hey postwar development revolutionizing the rudy of comparative politics. “Theseoond wasa movement coward viewsehat sav the political world in terms nonally applied to the natueal world, namely, asa sphere envemes tyr el clon that take te fonn of lute epalaies operating 1 Gos BOSE and ime. With tis ontological hil, de new poll seience esate norogielinguiayoreated to De dicey of casi genec- iaations expected co bold acrass a diverse range of cases. Explanation wns construed ar a process of identifying “eovcring laws” under which specific Leer Eetand Ge ean Souler Menanedl mented is Soapcee ‘Sonolist rerms, vo imply someshing liky fogkal nevessity ar, in eenpisicist erm, 4s constanceonjunetion, thatis, to demote the Fact finds x ane Suds y (Elunte 1748; Hempel 1965; Magel 1961; Moon 1973). ‘Comparative polled 4 mee ion "The thitd development ccntzal to entoleyieal aife of the 1950s and 19606, drawing on biology rather than physics for inspiration and allendsnly copa wilh hc adhe was the glowing porary of fanctionslisc conceptions of rauenion. Generally speaking, a functionalist vicw assumes that she presence ofa phenomenon san be exlainl bys ences (Elster 1983), The presence of a specific set of political in- stitutions, far instance, might be explained by che concibutien it makes to the efficient fmetioning ofa social or political sysvem, ‘The holism char- acteristic of postwar views ofthe politica! syxtezn encouraged funcxionalist perspectives. If the polity forms a coherent whole of interselsted part, it fs but = short step to see the relationships among these pars as functional “These ontological shifs encouraged a set of methadalogleal derelap- 7a “dependenc” variable fs said to be bles construed as ones 1 sdepeneney ofthe vain tate explined and. of exch uaher, The searel feamained a namathetic one, focused on disco ering exis repuluctvs, Lut Hhose segulaeies were 90w construcd in new terms, ‘The methodalogies of camparative polities changed in tandem with stere shift in ontology. The influential textbook by Pricworski and! “TEune (1970) exemplifies the sechodclogical eimphasis of the era. It ceflected growing interest in the metho: of agreement and difference devised by ‘Mil (1872) chac establish the existence ofa causal relaionshp berween two sraribles by carparing ensesthut are similac in all respects except for the values taken by che Gro-voriables of interestor that differ inall relevanc re= pects bu che correspondence amongsuch variables. Rellecing the intercat political explanations rooted in in Praeworski and Teune evinced 9 preference for the lazer, which they 379 tdyal-level behavior popular ae that ( Halt sermed a “must different systems” design, becaice ¥ allows one so exaun Jationships among variables below the level of che nation or system in a diverse range of eunteats. Building on uhe work of Smelser (1966, 1974), 3 this book selstantially advanced che practice of what becarte known 25 the “comparative method" ~ the method nermally applied when a small nurahur af ears are being examined, namely, in snall-N research dasigns ‘The quintessential expression of the-coruparative methexl was provided by Lijphaet (1971, 1975), whose views exemplify what hecame the domis nant understanding in uhe Held. Lijphart defined the comparative methexd bby contcasting it ta two ather methods, The “experimental” method is one in which investigntors actively alter the wacisbles with whieh Hhey expect to explain an outcoroe in cases randomly assigned to a treatment soup, compacing the outcomes Ureee with those in cases randornly assigned to a concral group where the eelevant variables have mot been alcered. This ga powerful method for testing: exusal inferences, but ic is rarely prac the sphere of comparative polities, where [.jphare suggested that the best substitute would be tke “statistical” methnd, Praceitioners ofthe statistical method inspect a large aursher of eases showing various cembinations of valueson amumber ofexplanatory varinblesand caleulntethe partial coreela- tions hewcea thea and a dependent variable, using the cules of probability to cstablsh the likelihood that each potential explanatory variable has 2a effect on dhe dependent vachble 2s well as the magnitude of each effece. Lijpharc’s conception af the comparntive method was deeply influenced bby his framing efit. This framework led him to see the comparative method as enc analuguus to the stanstia! method and different from it largely be cause only-s tall number nf exces are inspected. Again, he busts far that fngpaceinn are Mills mathods of agreecnent and eliforence } The investiga tor Jonks across a range of cases for the sinilareies in explanatory variables that would explain similarities in aurcames or for difference on one orewo explanatory vatiables that would explain corresponding differences in out comics. The key point is that, as portrayed by Lijphart and moat others, the comparative method js essentially cortelational, It buses inference about causal celations on covariation between a dependent variable and a small set of independent variables, and inspecsion of che cates is used primarily te determing the prasunce or value of such variables in hem. 5 ijphace (1971, ps 88) notes, es hare many thers C6 Smelee 1976 bf Gy EIU, tak either Mille Durkin believed thee methads could hezpplel inthe ciel sciences, Tra he jer theiraijesons foc being “lownlsd on tow excises sandr” 330 Aligning Ontology and Methodology ¢ “This conception of how sanall-N cousparison should be conducted ond of the comparative meched became highly influential. ILconditioned both the haraeter of debate and the grata metkodologieal movementin the field. Concer term, the comparative method is a distinctly fragile ne for establishing eavsal in variable bias” thac ariee when one has many variables and few cases to consider (Lieberson 1985), The method yields stcong inferences only if uve explanatory variobles can be seen as “neceséary” or “sufficient” coupes ofthe zelovantoutcome zndleausil olatiansasdeterministc, even thoughscholars now tend to view many such relations as probabilistic." Lijphart (1971, 1975) responded heroically to these concerns, suggesting several ways 0 improve coxoporative research desl gns, essentially by inerensing the realer ofcases, reframing the variables tosedvee their mumber, ar focusing om nee that provide “evitical” texts fora theory: But its notdiffieult to ste why he and many othersconeludled thac*Leczuse the eoenpazative method mustbe | camsidered the weaker neched, icis usually advisable vo shifttathe statistical smethes! ifsufficienc cases are available forinvestigation” (1975, p. 165) “This stance set the tome for touch ofthe subsequent debore, Some schol- arshave suggested important refinements ta the comparative method, and nay continue to tely on it (Campbell 1975; George 19795 Skucpol und Somers 1980} Collier 1991). But uneze is @ growing tendency to regard statistical methods a5 superior far establishing causal infeecnees (Geddes 1990; King ct al. 1994; Goldthorpe 1997}. In practice, his means 2 heavy ‘emphasis on regression: analysis. The vast majority of stodies in comparative politics employing stadstical techniques use some form of regreasion anal- ysie, whether probit, logit, generalize, ne ordinary lenst squares. The deive te secure enough cites s0 employ such mnethexls now leads many scholars tw privilege studies based on pooled crase-sertional thnesseres data , fraoght with problems of Yomixted The Contemporary Ditenrma ‘Whac thn is the contemporary dlermana facing the eld? Sustdard eegees- ‘Sonanalysis and the comparative method understood inconventiona! terns This ftlows whether cual relatos sre antlegelly probabil, i.e operate oy in = censin proparioa ofthe caesar dcteninisc but sere wey in preparclan of fhe cheerios teense of errs in essere ae research design. The peoecn orzo: because i c1urs yin cy 80 percent of the eer, when un ne ewe ce of y sraont 6 dant Kaw wheter a does nov cause y oF wheter toe es re par of fhe cxceptonal IO pereent. ML a Ht Provide strong tnses for causa] inferences only when dhe causal sernenures in the world to which hey are applied coaform wo an exacting set of ase sumptions, Both medhexls imply spevife antelogies. [The comparative snechod euquires espérally demanding assumptions | {e provides effective tests only where the world conforms to 4 Huncan dntology thar assoc! -sousatian with constant eonjunetian of where dhe aus variables bring sought are necessary causes of on eticome, dst is, | solimportanc io it that usey muse be presemt for thacautcmme ta cceur (xe | Braimoetter 2500) Regression analysiris mone exible. [cis well aluprette anentology chat He causation and, given enaugh cases, it cin cope wih soene iatersetion effects (ef. Jackson 1994), Henverer, the types of regros sion analyses cemmonly used co stutly comparative politics provide valid suppect fr caus inferences only ifthe caus relarions dhay are eramising meet a rigotors sr of sssumpeions (see Wallerscin 2000), In generat rmethed assumes unichomogensity whith ito say tha, cher things being qual achasgein thevalue of easal variable rwill produce u cartespond- ing change in che value of the outcome variable y of the same magoituda uemssall the cases. Ir assumes no systernatie correlation between the causal vtiables included in che analysié sa) favables omitted fam — Ice correlated wish the depeodene-vacible- assumes that ll the el vat interaesion effets anvirge-the caer: variblaa hare_besartapeimed i interaction cerns in the regression. [emssumtes that the cases are fully ndepenttanr:suelr that the values of the causal variables in one cose are wwoaffocted by tke value ofthe causal variables ur niteomes in other eagea? Alchough instrumental variables can sometiniss be used, most regresiion smalls assiame that there is no reciprocal rausation, thae is, thoe che causa variables are unaffected by the dependent variable. Tn shout, the comparative method, as itis usually undcrstond, and the standard repression inoles exployed in eomparstive police make strong 320 of assumptions about dhe narure ofthe cawsl elatgus they are being wused to examine. They de not assess cans relationships well if the world tlpes not conform to chat antatogy. ‘The problem i that the world may not have this exusal structure, Even \whea thestandard regression mowel was on the ise, sre argued thot ic did ? Taber mands, ams sich ales sume oii elec oft sort wo mlich Gaon sow guration, Alsaugh theres texhnignes ar ameng sh ells, heya mel ‘rey in exmpartve pial nui 3a Aligning Oncology and Mechodoloyy socio 1968 Wan 196%, Richa LO). In ects, Rom, soeand mec the renee enbraed by compartir als alte sumptions chor eal scores tht mes be wali f mes on tt andar regresion melo comseonal compotion at 10 be rll, Conse ho diferent he cries od now dere teen wansons to deoeae ar rom the pesos generliinn of 9 clderlcerarace aban the conitions for stable deroneracy (cf. Lipser 1959; (©'Doonell andl Schiritter 1986). Tle eausalrekrionshipson which scholoes nent fos ate deren fom thaee pried we devas og, a! tae scinonfedge orm ofmlscosaly shat wevious wok gure, Ron's 1987) plenering wor kent many of hase cael em plesties under the rubric of "cmultiple cnnjunctural eausaion” (soe ako. Lieberson 1985). [n most cases the problems arise feat derueion efter aniong czwsol or cantertual variables that standard analyses tend r-assumme away “Traditional meshoxls focuzed on idensifying a set of independent ils (24 ...a} chas exert consistent causal effects nn ae autcome > sypes of enosal relationshipss tend to miss the [ollowi i. We find instances in which an inerense in x (evel of esonomic devel- opment} causes an ineeease im y (movernent award democracy) in some eases bat dacs aot bave this effec in nchers, where 9 is eaused yan cacirely different set of variables, FOP eae ea el om ie gover. nance) is associated with an iocrease in y (Social spending) at ene ict senor at another point in Sri nes caus taser a (ala od ened an qutome 9 (goverment tanoves) i sone ese! but an enticly different owcome (repression) in other cases. doy i We nd istancrin whieh an ounce yee wos em sion} depends on thevalueof many utr variables~o (uaton density, 1» facial democratic governance), um x (social policy regime} whose values are in torn jointly dependent ar exch other vy. We find cxses in whieb increases in x Gaupport for democracy) inerease y (he stability af democracy) and in whi also tend to increase x * Foe eboney, dope a aie xen) 9p teresa pnt nie ed te Fev ya Be me ra penn on sya Hatrevdry ol the lsat es 790009 Frorof wera incaling exeeiente apcovches fe agi 12,0) ws ( Abt If causal structures of this snet were unusual i€ righ be Feasible 49 raleate them to the real of the unknowable in ardor w concentrate on, simpler celtioaships that ean be ascaied. Buc growing numbers of schokus have conch that these ypes of causal structures are eorumon features ‘of the pultial world, Some of the 1st proniinent theories in compar- itive plitics now understand the world in terms that do not confer to ‘he noummpions required by standard regression analysis, Tivo major fines of theorizing are especially importonc. Each i distinctive and inthesndal among a different gronp of scholars, buclodh advance entalnyres that pose sSngular problems for conventional mnetheds uf analysis. ‘Tiers ofthese twa lines of tkeuretieal development ragards politcal otcomesasthe result ofutrategt interncsion among setorsof asort thatcan ‘often bemodaled by noncoopceative game thesry, New applic sues, this perspective sees political autcomesasthe result ofchainsof choices that thesctors makein sesporse o eachother chrough ieraced rounds ofin- teraction. st cach point in rime che choices ofshe aecors may be influenced by the presence of specific rypes of instinations, ur the Inter meely specify a unique equilibrium, Asa sesuly, dieeueome wsuly depends ona further set of condisions - seal, exanumic, er cultural - that can be coniples or cermescent, ln the tree diagrams of games presented ia extensive form, there are many branches, A shifcin the coaditions underpinning strategie choice at one junetorecon hase radical effects on later ooteomncs. Asa rceul, although some clements of these theories, including conjectures abut the equilibrium iespact of various types of institutions, can be texted ving: scmdare couiparative analysis ic is usually dilfcule w recce che chains ‘of causution envisioned. bp such theories te a slinphy set of independent ‘otiales (cE. Knight and Senec! 1095; Milner 1999; Boots etal 1998), “The second fine uf thenry chat is trmséormning our understanding: oF ccrusal scructures is odvanced by an influencal licerauure abaue path do pendence (Collier and Collier [9915 Thelen 1999, 2000; Mahoney 2000s; Fierson 00a}. Although their views aboue how path dependence should bo defined and what propels & unit along a path vary, analysts taking thie perspective tend toageee un to points wth serious implications for eats analysis, Fest, usey agree that causal developments of great inors fr the charseter of an ultimate outcome often occur early in dhe lang exusal chain that eas to ehae outcome, perhaps even in-dhe distant past If the inypact Of subsequent developments in all the relewrat eases were hore ieencous across thesn, this observation would nor be a msjar problem for a4 Aligning Ontolagy and Methodology C conventional matherks variables representing early developments could be ineneporated inte a standard regression analysis. However, appronches to polities usually abanee a second euntention. They suggest chat a key development in the distant past Grhether a fateful choice ar jC event] often affers a cases deeply: tat pac of sullequen deselopmentsthere, thereby viating rhe assamtion thar uel dévelopiments x, 7, £c40 be expected to bave the sime impact acnast Gaz. Inveffece, this is a coaten cam molly mony analysts of path dependence, chere is debate about whether the key developments arc typically contingcne or predictable and whether they occur mmninly at critical junctures dat are broadly transformative in charace ter of ar multiple points. in time, with effects that ave initially incremental ‘butinorense over ime, Flowever,puthslependlent images of the world chal= lenge tea ditional methods because they contend thatearly develnments ean change the cantest of case so radically that subsequent developments will have different effects in each of the cases. Interaction elfecs build up over tine, carrying eases down such different paths tat it becomes unceasoa- able ta suppose that an + occusting today bas the same effect, 7, eros all settings In shor, theories of sran see the world not as a terrain marked by the operation of timeless causil regularities, bur as a branching cee whose tips represent the outcomes of events that unfold aver dine (ef. Sewell L994), If chis is wus, che siming of a parccular development cin matter 2 grent deal to its effect, The sequence in which developments oceur hacomes important to the effects uae they generate (Pierson 20006; Thelen 2000; ¢6 Binder e¢al. 1971). The prote- typical contention is that the impact of « will depend on whether i occurs before or ster w. The effect of industrialisauion depends en whether it occurs in the lte eighteenth or nineteenth century (Goescheakon 1962), ‘The overarching premise is that contest matters: the impactof x~will rarely bbe independene of the value of other variables (u, v, 24}, andl contents] heterngeneicy i a funccion of evencs unfolding over time. “Theosies of path dependence explicily draw ouratcension to the fmpor= tance of history. They imply hat curren outcomes can rarely be explained by reference only to the present or the inmediate past. But cheories of strategie interaction also reference a chain of iterated choices, alten ex- tendingginto the distant past. Both approaches militate against analyses ints on tha feets eocur aver time and seraction and af path dependence both 385 swhich past developments are simply imporsed asa i hhecise chey iinply iar the cansal impast of such fon where they ace lucaved within che histovial chit Aldhough ebims of this sore pose prafaurul challenges co mainstream analysis, chay have a great deal of ineuitive plrusbility, Six years of social dlemocrae gover: but it almost certainly did noc have the sane ianpact as si years of soe) democratic governance in the 19603. Moreover, becntse the impact afsoeial Usmocratis rovernanee can be conditioned by other Fietorg, it may noc hs the same geross eases even at one poiac in time,” When the effects of a few variables ate very strong and measurabl regression anzlyses can assess sore ofthese types of interaction effoets. In practiee, bowever, the intecaction effects are often so complex and the darn so limited that regression analysis eonmoe tast the relevant ptopaiiions. Many acalysts simply assume thera avy. “The new theories in comporative pailites basal on strategic internction or patke

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