Statistical Deception

You might also like

Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 2

Cherry picking

Cherry-picking occurs when a person makes a claim about a subject and then selects only
the tests that support the claim or ignores any translation of the data that could refute the
claim. In other words, it's about selecting your data to prove your claim.

Ignoring the baseline


dictionary, "a measurement, calculation or location used as a basis for comparison".
"Ignoring the baseline is like comparing apples with motorbikes and Wednesdays."
(Wing Commander Alex Hicks, Ministry of Defence)
I like to think of the baseline as the context for a comparison. Things have to be compared in
similar contexts, otherwise the comparison might be meaningless. For example, you can't
claim the sidewall of a building is taller than the rear wall if you measure one from the floor
and the other from the foundations; you can't claim your village is safer than the town
because there are fewer burglaries in the village each year; and you can't claim the residents
of Nevada look after their cars better than those from Alaska because their cars last longer.

Using relative language instead of absolute language

Facts are stubborn things, but statistics are more pliable."


(American author and humorist Mark Twain, 1835–1910)
Statistics can be moulded into many shapes depending on the whim of the user. And, unless
you're looking carefully, it's often difficult to spot the manipulation.

Let's imagine there's a new cancer drug out that, if taken every day, will reduce the risk of
stomach cancer by 50%. Fantastic, sign me up you'd say. But, unfortunately and as usual,
that's not the whole story. If the cancer rate is 1 in 50 of the population (2 in 100), then the
drug will only work for 1 in 100 people. Suddenly, that doesn't sound so impressive. The
"50%" describes the situation in relative terms, whereas the "1 in a 100" describes it in
absolute terms.

Use of deceptive images


We all know that a picture is worth a thousand words. We all know that graphs are a great
way to portray complex information, and we all know that graphs are a powerful way to
deliver a message. We tend to be more trusting of graphs than words. After all, seeing is
believing. But don't think you're in safe territory when you're presented with a graph. There
are tricks to spin those too.
Changing the Graphical Baseline
A common trick to make a result look more favourable is to change the baseline when
presenting the data graphically

Using small samples


Using a small sample pool is a common way to achieve the results you need. Let's imagine I
was trying to sell you a potion that guaranteed heads every time you tossed a coin. Defying
the inertia of large numbers.

Using different types of average


The three different types of average used in statistical descriptions are mean median and
mode. When calculated from the same data set, the values of all these averages are
different. From this it can be known that there is no accuracy about the averages that
statistical is derived from data sets.

Failing to do research
Researchers who are not highly-skilled for property committed to doing social research often
feel to conduct a proper systematic and accurate research. as a result the data collected in
the research is not reliable which intern generates unreliable statistical inferences and
descriptions.

You might also like