PROBABILITY

BAYE’S THEOREM
If E1, E2 ,..., En are n non empty events which constitute a partition of sample space S, i.e. E1,
E2 ,..., En are pairwise disjoint and E1 E2 ...  En = S andA is any event of nonzero
probability, then

P (Ei).P (A/Ei)
P(Ei|A) = n
for any i = 1, 2, 3, ..., n
 P(Ej) P(A/Ej)
j1

Problems with solutions

Q1.Bag 1 contains 3 red and 4 black balls and Bag 2 contains 4 red and 5 black balls. One Ball is
transferred from Bag 1 to Bag 2 and then two balls are drawn at random (without replacement) from
Bag 2. The balls so drawn are found to be both red in color. Find the probability that the transferred
ball is red.

ANS: - Total No. of balls in 1st bag = 3+4= 7

And total No. of balls in 2nd bag = 4+5= 9

Let, E1: transferred ball is red

E2: transferred ball is black.

A: Getting both red from 2nd bag (after transfer)

3 4
P (E1) = and P (E2) =
7 7

P (A/E1) =P (getting both red balls from 2nd bag, when transfer ball is red)

10 2
= 5C2/10C2= =
45 9

P (A/E2) =P (getting both red balls from 2nd bag, when transfer ball is black)

6 2
= 4C2/10C2= =
45 15

Therefore, by Baye’s theorem

1
 P (E1).P (A/E1)
P (E1/A) =
P (E1).P (A/E1)  P (E2) .P (A/E2)

3 2
.
7 9 5
= 
3 2 4 2 9
.  .
7 9 7 15

Q2.Given three identical boxes 1,2and 3, each containing two coins. In box 1, both coins are gold
coins, in box 2, both are silver coins and in box 3, there is one gold and one silver coin. A person
chooses a box at random and takes out a coin. If the coin is of gold, what is probability tha5t the other
coin in the box is also of gold?

Solution: let E1,E2,and E3, be the events that boxes 1,2and 3 are chosen respectively.

1
Then, P (E1) = P (E2) = P (E3) =
3

Also, let A be the event that ‘the coin drawn is of gold’

2
Thus, P (A/E1) = P (a gold coin from bag1) = 1
2

P (A/E2) = P (a gold coin from bag2) = 0

1
P (A/E3) = P (a gold coin from bag3) =
2

Now the probability that the other coin in the box is of gold

= The probability that the gold coin is drawn from the box 1

= P (E1/A)

By Baye’s theorem, we know that

P (E1)P (A/E1)
P (E1/A) =
P (E1)P (A/E1)  P (E2) P (A/E2)  P (E3) P (A/E3)

1
X1
3 2
= 
1 1 1 1 3
X1  X 0  X
3 3 3 2

2
Q3.A man is known to speak truth 3 out of 4 times. He throws a die and report that it is a six. Find the
probability that it is actually a six.

1
Solution:P (E1) = Probability that six occurs =
6

5
P (E2) = Probability that six does not occurs =
6

P (A/E1) = Probability that the man reports that six occurs when six has actually occurred on the die.

3
Probability that the man speaks the truth =
4

P (A/E2) = Probability that the man reports that six occurs when six has not actually occurred on the
die.

3 1
Probability that the man speaks the truth = 1  
4 4

Thus by Baye’s theorem, we get

P (E1/A) = Probability that the report of the man that six has occurred actually a six.

1 3
X
P (E1).P (A/E1) 6 4 1 24 3
P (E1/A) = =  X 
P (E1).P (A/E1)  P (E2) .P (A/E2) 1 3 5 1 8 8 8
X  X
6 4 6 4

Q4.There are three coins. One is two headed coin (having head on both faces), another is a biased coin
that comes up heads 75% of the time and third is an unbiased coin. One of the three coins is chosen at
random and tossed, it shows heads, what is the probability that it was the two headed coin?

SOLUTION:

Let E1,E2 and E3 be the events that coins I ,II and III are chosen respectively.

Let A be the event of getting a head.

1
P(E1)=P(E2)=P(E3)=
3

3 1
P(A/E1)=1, P(A/E2)=75%= , P(A/E3)=
4 2

3
 P (E1).P (A/E1) 4
Required probability= p(E1/A) = =
P (E1).P (A/E1)  P (E2) .P (A/E2)  P(E3).P(A/ E3) 9

Q5. An insurance company insured 2000 scooter drivers, 4000 car drivers and 6000 truck drivers. The
probability of an accidents are 0.01, 0.03 and 0.15 respectively. One of the insured persons meets with
an accident. What is the probability that he is a scooter driver?

SOLUTION:

Insured scooter drivers=2000

Car drivers = 4000

Truck drivers=6000

Total drivers= 12000

Let E1,E2 and E3 be the events that scooter driver , car driver and truck driver are selecting
respectively

Let A be the event of meeting with an accident

2000 1 4000 1 6000 1

P(E1)=  , P(E2)=  ,P(E3)= 
12000 6 12000 3 12000 2

P(A/E1)=0.01 and P(A/E2)=0.03 and P(A/E3)=0.15

P (E1).P (A/E1) 1
By Bayes theorem P(E1/A) = =
P (E1).P (A/E1)  P (E2) .P (A/E2)  P(E3).P(A/ E3) 52

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION MEAN & VARIANCE OF RANDOM VARIABLE

The probability distribution of a random variable X is the system of numbers

X : x1 x2….... xn

P(X): p1 p2….... pn

n
Where, pi > 0,  Pi =1
i 1

Problem with solutions

1. From a lot of 30 bulbs which include 6 defectives, a sample of 4 bulbs is drawn at random with
replacement. Find the probability distribution of the number of defective bulbs.

Sol: Let X denotes the number of defective bulbs

4
 X= 0,1,2,3 or 4
6 1
Probability of getting a defective bulb= 
30 5

1 4
Probability of getting a non defective bulb= 1  
5 5

4 4 256
P(X=0)=P(no defective bulb)=p( all 4 good ones)= ( ) =
5 625
1 4 256
P(x=1)= 4c1 ( ) ( )3 =
5 5 625

1 2 4 2 96
P(x=2)= 4c2 ( ) ( ) =
5 5 625

1 3 4 16
P(x=3)= 4c3 ( ) ( ) =
5 5 625

1 4 1
P(x=4)= ( ) =
5 625
Probability distribution of X is

X 0 1 2 3 4
P(X) 256 256 96 16 1
625 625 625 625 625

PRACTICE QUESTIONS
1. Suppose a girl throws a die’ if she gets a 5 or 6, she tosses a coin three times and notes the
number of heads. If she gets 1,2,3 or 4 , she tosses a coin once and notes whether a head or tail
is obtained. If she obtained exactly one head, what is the probability that she threw1,2,3 or 4
with the die?
2. In answering a question on amultiple choice test, a student either knows the answer or
guesses. Let ¾ be the probability that he knows the answer and ¼ be the probability that he
guesses. Assuming that a student who guesses the answer will be correct with probability ¼.
What is the probability that a student knows the answer given that he answered it correctly?
3. Two numbers are selected at random (without replacement) from the first six positive integers.
Let X denote the larger of the two numbers obtained. Find the expectation of X.
4. Two cards are drawn simultaneously(or successively without replacement) from a well shuffled
pack of 52 cards. Find the mean, variance and standard deviation of the number of kings.

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