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 Air travel on Mountain Airlines for the past 18 weeks was:

Week Passengers Week Passengers

1 405 10 440
2 410 11 446
3 420 12 451
4 415 13 455
5 412 14 464
6 420 15 466
7 424 16 474
8 433 17 476
9 438 18 482

b. Use an appropriate technique to develop a forecast for the expected number of passengers for the next
three weeks. (Round your intermediate calculations to 4 decimal places and final answers to 2
decimal places.)

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Week Forecasted Demand
19 484.25

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20 488.84
21 493.44

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References
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Worksheet Problem 3-8 Learning Objective: 03-11 Prepare a linear trend forecast.
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Air travel on Mountain Airlines for the past 18 weeks was:

Week Passengers Week Passengers

1 405 10 440
2 410 11 446
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3 420 12 451
4 415 13 455
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5 412 14 464
6 420 15 466
7 424 16 474
8 433 17 476
9 438 18 482
sh is

b. Use an appropriate technique to develop a forecast for the expected number of passengers for the next
three weeks. (Round your intermediate calculations to 4 decimal places and final answers to 2
Th

decimal places.)

Week Forecasted Demand

19 484.25 ± 0.5
20 488.84 ± 0.5
21 493.44 ± 0.5

b.
T y t*y t2
1 405 405 1
2 410 820 4
3 420 1260 9
4 415 1660 16
5 412 2060 25
6 420 2520 36
7 424 2968 49
8 433 3464 64

https://www.coursehero.com/file/11981906/chapter-3-OM/
 9 438 3942 81
10 440 4400 100
11 446 4906 121
12 451 5412 144
13 455 5915 169
14 464 6496 196
15 466 6990 225
16 474 7584 256
17 476 8092 289
18 482 8676 324

Forecasted demand for the next three weeks are:

Y19 = 396.9738 + (4.5934)(19) = 484.25
Y20 = 396.9738 + (4.5934)(20) = 488.84

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Y21 = 396.9738 + (4.5934)(21) = 493.44

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 After plotting demand for four periods, an emergency room manager has concluded that a trend-adjusted
exponential smoothing model is appropriate to predict future demand. The initial estimate of trend is based
on the net change of 30 for the three periods from 1 to 4, for an average of +10 units.

Period Actual Period Actual

1 210
2 227
3 229
4 240
5 254
6 261
7 275
8 270
9 295
10

Use α=.5 and β=.1, and TAF of 250 for period 5. Obtain forecasts for periods 6 through 10. (Round your
intermediate calculations and final answers to 2 decimal places.)

t Period TAFt
6 262.50
7 274.75
8 284.87

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9 295.89
305.92

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References

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Worksheet Problem 3-10 Learning Objective: 03-12 Prepare a trend-adjusted exponential

rs e smoothing forecast.
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After plotting demand for four periods, an emergency room manager has concluded that a trend-adjusted
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exponential smoothing model is appropriate to predict future demand. The initial estimate of trend is based
on the net change of 30 for the three periods from 1 to 4, for an average of +10 units.

Period Actual Period Actual

1 210 6 261
2 227 7 275
3 229 8 270
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4 240 9 295
5 254 10
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Use α=.5 and β=.1, and TAF of 250 for period 5. Obtain forecasts for periods 6 through 10. (Round your
intermediate calculations and final answers to 2 decimal places.)
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t Period TAFt
262.00 ± 0.05
6
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271.70 ± 0.05
7

283.50 ± 0.05
8

287.07 ± 0.05
9

300.68 ± 0.05
10

The initial estimate of trend is based on the net change of 30 for the three periods from 1 to 4, for an
average of +10 units. Use α = .5 and β=.1
Initial trend = (240 – 210) / 3 = 10

t Period At Actual
Model 1 210
Development 2 227
3 229
4 240

https://www.coursehero.com/file/11981906/chapter-3-OM/
 t Period At Actual TAFt TAFt + α(At – TAFt) = St Tt–1 + β( TAFt – TAFt–1 – Tt–1) = Tt
5 254 250* 250 + .5(254 – 250) = 252.00 10.00 + .1(0) = 10.00
6 261 262.00 262.00 + .5(261 – 262.00) = 261.50 10.00 + .1(262.00 – 250 – 10.00) = 10.20
Model Test 7 275 271.70 271.70 + .5(275 – 271.70) = 273.35 10.20 + .1(271.70 – 262.00 – 10.00) = 10.15
8 270 283.50 283.50 + .5(270 – 283.50) = 276.75 10.15 + .1(283.50 – 271.70 – 10.15) = 10.32
9 295 287.07 287.07 + .5(295 – 287.07) = 291.03 10.32 + .1(287.07 – 283.50 – 10.32) = 9.65
Next Forecast 10 300.68
* Estimated by the manager

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 A manager of a store that sells and installs spas wants to prepare a forecast for January, February, and
March of next year. Her forecasts are a combination of trend and seasonality. She uses the following
equation to estimate the trend component of monthly demand: Ft = 100 + 6t, where t = 0 in June of last
year. Seasonal relatives are 1.09 for January, .96 for February, and 1.05 for March. What demands should
she predict? (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.)

Month Forecast
January of the next year 233.26
February of the next year 211.20
March of the next year 237.30

References

Worksheet Learning Objective: 03-11

Prepare a linear trend forecast.

Problem 3-11 Learning Objective: 03-13

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Compute and use seasonal

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relatives.

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A manager of a store that sells and installs spas wants to prepare a forecast for January, February, and
March of next year. Her forecasts are a combination of trend and seasonality. She uses the following
equation to estimate the trend component of monthly demand: Ft = 100 + 6t, where t = 0 in June of last
year. Seasonal relatives are 1.09 for January, .96 for February, and 1.05 for March. What demands should
she predict? (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.)
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Month Forecast
January of the next year 233.26 ± 0.05
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February of the next year 211.20 ± 0.05

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March of the next year 237.30 ± 0.05

Yt = 100 + 6t t = 0 (June of last year)

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t = 1 (July of last year)

t = 7 (January of this year)
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t = 8 (February of this year)

t = 9 (March of this year)
t = 19 (January of next year)
t = 20 (February of next year)
t = 21 (March of next year)
YJan. = 100 + (6)(19) = 214
YFeb. = 100 + (6)(20) = 220
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YMar. = 100 + (6)(21) = 226

Forecast = (Trend) * (Seasonal Relative)

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Month Trend * Seasonal Relative = Forecast

January 214 * 1.09 233.26
February 220 * .96 211.20
March 226 * 1.05 237.30

https://www.coursehero.com/file/11981906/chapter-3-OM/
 The manager of a fashionable restaurant open Wednesday through Saturday says that the restaurant does
about 29 percent of its business on Friday night, 28 percent on Saturday night, and 15 percent on Thursday
night. What seasonal relatives would describe this situation?(Round your answers to 2 decimal places.)

Wednesday 1.12
Thursday 0.60
Friday 1.16
Saturday 1.12

References

Worksheet Problem 3-15 Learning Objective: 03-13 Compute and use seasonal relatives.

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The manager of a fashionable restaurant open Wednesday through Saturday says that the restaurant does
about 29 percent of its business on Friday night, 28 percent on Saturday night, and 15 percent on Thursday

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night. What seasonal relatives would describe this situation?(Round your answers to 2 decimal places.)

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Wednesday 1.12 ± 0.05
Thursday 0.60 ± 0.05
Friday 1.16 ± 0.05
Saturday 1.12 ± 0.05
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Wednesday= .28 × 4 = 1.12

Thursday = .15 × 4 = .60
Friday = .29 × 4 = 1.16
Saturday = .28 × 4 = 1.12
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