ModelingAndSimulation PDF

‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ اﻟﻤﻠﻚ ﺳﻌﻮد‬
‫ﻗﺴﻢ اﻹﺣﺼﺎء وﺑﺤﻮث اﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎت‬
‫اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‬
‫ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام‬
‫‪Excel, SIMAN, Arena and General Purpose‬‬
‫)‪Simulation System (GPSS WORLD‬‬
‫ﺗﺄﻟﻴﻒ د‪ .‬ﻋﺪﻧﺎن ﻣﺎﺟﺪ ﻋﺒﺪاﻟﺮﺣﻤﻦ ﺑﺮي‬

‫أﺳﺘﺎذ اﻹﺣﺼﺎء وﺑﺤﻮث اﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎت اﻟﻤﺸﺎرك‬
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‫ﺑﺴﻢ ﷲ اﻟﺮﺣﻤﻦ اﻟﺮﺣﯿﻢ‬
‫اﻟﺤﻤﺪ ! رب اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﯿﻦ واﻟﺼﻼة واﻟﺴﻼم ﻋﻠﻰ اﺷﺮف ﺧﻠﻖ ﷲ ﺳﯿﺪﻧﺎ وﻧﺒﯿﻨﺎ ﻣﺤﻤﺪ‬
‫وﻋﻠﻰ آﻟﮫ وﺻﺤﺒﮫ وﺳﻠﻢ‪.‬‬
‫أﻣﺎ ﺑﻌﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ھﺬه ھﻲ اﻟﻤﺴﻮدة اﻷوﻟﻰ ﻟﻜﺘﺎب اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪Excel, SIMAN,‬‬
‫‪Arena and General Purpose Simulation System (GPSS‬‬
‫)‪ WORLD‬ﻟﻄﻼب ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ اﻟﺒﻜﺎﻟﻮرﯾﻮس‪.‬‬
‫وﻛﻤﺎ ذﻛﺮت ﻓﻲ ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﻛﺘﺎﺑﻲ " طﺮق اﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ – ﺟﺰء أول – " ھﺬا اﻟﻜﺘﺎب‬
‫ﺳﯿﻈﻞ ﻣﺴﻮدة إﻟﻰ ﻣﺎﺷﺎء ﷲ ﻷﻧﻲ وﺑﺈذن ﷲ ﺗﻌﺎﻟﻰ ﺳﻮف أﻗﻮم ﺑﺘﻄﻮﯾﺮه وﺗﺠﺪﯾﺪه‬
‫وﺗﺤﺴﯿﻨﮫ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﺴﺘﻤﺮ وﺳﯿﻈﻞ ﺑﺸﻜﻠﮫ اﻹﻟﻜﺘﺮوﻧﻲ ھﺬا ﻷﻧﻲ أﻋﺘﻘﺪ ان اﻟﻌﻠﻮم واﻟﺘﻘﻨﯿﺔ‬
‫ﺗﺘﻄﻮر ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ وﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﺘﺴﺎرع ﺑﺤﯿﺚ ان وﺿﻌﮭﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻛﺘﺎب ﺟﺎﻣﺪ ﺳﺘﺎﺗﯿﻜﻲ ﻻﯾﺘﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻣﻊ‬
‫دﯾﻨﺎﻣﯿﻜﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻮﺿﻮع وﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺼﺮ ﺛﻮرة اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت واﻹﻧﺘﺮﻧﺖ‪.‬‬
‫ﯾﻐﻄﻲ اﻟﻜﺘﺎب اﻷﺳﺎﺳﯿﺎت اﻷوﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻮﺿﻮع وﯾﺘﻄﺮق إﻟﻰ اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام‬
‫‪ Microsoft Excel‬و ﺣﺰم اﻟﻤﺤﻜﺎة ‪ SIMAN‬و ‪ Arena‬و ‪GPSS World‬‬
‫وﻛﺎن إﺧﺘﯿﺎري ﻟﮭﺬه اﻟﺤﺰم ھﻮ إﻧﺘﺸﺎرھﺎ اﻟﻜﺒﯿﺮ و ﺟﻮدﺗﮭﺎ اﻟﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻹﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﮭﺎ‬
‫ﺧﻮارزﻣﺎت أﻛﺜﺮ ﻓﺎﻋﻠﯿﺔ وﻗﻮﺗﮭﺎ اﻟﺤﺴﺎﺑﯿﺔ وإﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﮭﺎ اﻟﻮاﺳﻊ ﻛﻤﺎ اﻧﮫ ﻗﺪ ﺗﻢ إﺧﺘﺒﺎرھﺎ‬
‫ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﻜﺜﻒ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ اﻟﻜﺜﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﯿﻦ ﻣﻊ ﻏﯿﺮھﺎ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺒﺮاﻣﺞ ﻓﻜﺎﻧﺖ ﻣﻦ أواﺋﻞ‬
‫اﻟﺒﺮاﻣﺞ اﻟﻤﺼﻨﻔﺔ ﺑﺠﻮدﺗﮭﺎ ﻛﻤﺎ أن ‪ GPSS‬أﺻﺒﺢ ﻣﻦ ﻟﻐﺎت اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ذات اﻟﻤﻨﺤﻰ‬
‫اﻟﺸﯿﺌﻲ ‪ Object-Oriented‬وھﺬة ﻣﯿﺰة ﻋﻈﯿﻤﺔ ﺟﺪا ﻷي ﻟﻐﺔ ﻧﻤﺬﺟﺔ وﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪،‬‬
‫ﺑﺄﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ إﻟﻰ وﺟﻮد ﻧﺴﺦ ﻣﺠﺎﻧﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻄﻼب ﻋﻠﻰ اﻹﻧﺘﺮﻧﺖ‪.‬‬
‫إن إﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﺑﺮاﻣﺞ ﺻﻔﺤﺎت اﻟﻨﺸﺮ ﻣﺜﻞ ‪ Excel‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة اﺻﺒﺢ ﻣﻨﺘﺸﺮا‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻛﺜﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺠﺎﻣﻌﺎت‪ ،‬واﺻﺒﺤﺖ ﻧﻤﺬﺟﺔ ﺻﻔﺤﺎت اﻟﻨﺸﺮ ‪Spreadsheet‬‬
‫‪ Modelling‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻮاﺿﯿﻊ اﻟﻤﮭﻤﺔ ﺟﺪا واﻟﻀﺮورﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﻌﻠﯿﻢ اﻟﺠﺎﻣﻌﻲ وﻣﺎ ﻗﺒﻠﮫ‬
‫وذﻟﻚ ﻟﻤﻘﺪرﺗﮭﺎ اﻟﮭﺎﺋﻠﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﺑﻜﻞ أﺷﻜﺎﻟﮭﺎ ﺑﺼﻮرة ﻟﻢ ﺗﻜﻦ ﻣﺘﻮﻓﺮة ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ‬
‫إﻧﺘﺸﺎر اﻟﺤﺎﺳﺒﺎت اﻵﻟﯿﺔ‪ ،‬وﻷدل ﻋﻠﻰ ذﻟﻚ ﻟﻘﺪ ﻟﺠﺄ اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﻮن اﻷواﺋﻞ ﻓﻲ أواﺋﻞ اﻟﻘﺮن‬
‫اﻟﻌﺸﺮﯾﻦ ) ﻓﻲ اﻟﻔﺘﺮة ﻣﻦ ‪ 1920‬م‪ 1960 -‬م( إﻟﻰ إﺳﺘﺨﺪام طﺮق ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ‬
‫‪ Approximation Methods‬وﺗﻘﺎرﺑﯿﺔ ‪ Asymptotic Methods‬وﺟﺪاول‬
‫ورﺳﻮﻣﺎت ﺑﯿﺎﻧﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ ﻟﻌﺪم وﺟﻮد أو ﺗﻮﻓﺮ طﺮق ﺣﺴﺎﺑﯿﺔ أوﺗﻮﻣﺎﺗﯿﻜﯿﺔ‪،‬‬
‫وﻟﻸﺳﻒ اﻟﺸﺪﯾﺪ ﻻﯾﺰال اﻟﻜﺜﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﯿﻦ واﻟﺮﯾﺎﺿﯿﯿﻦ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺎم ﻣﻨﻐﻠﻘﯿﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫اﻟﻄﺮق اﻟﻘﺪﯾﻤﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ طﻮرت ﺣﯿﻨﺬاك وﻟﻢ ﯾﺴﺘﻐﻠﻮا اﻟﻘﺪرات اﻟﮭﺎﺋﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﺎﺳﺒﺎت اﻟﺤﺪﯾﺜﺔ‪،‬‬
‫وﺣﺠﺘﮭﻢ أن ﺗﻠﻚ اﻟﻄﺮق ھﻰ طﺮق أﺳﺎﺳﯿﺔ ﻻﺗﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻣﻊ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ؟ إﻧﻨﻲ ﻷﻋﺠﺐ ﻣﺎذا ﻛﺎن‬
‫ﺳﯿﻔﻌﻞ ﻓﺸﺮ وﺟﻮﺳﺖ وﺑﻼﻛﻮﯾﻞ وﻛﺮﯾﻤﺮ وﻏﯿﺮھﻢ ﻟﻮﻛﺎن أﺣﺪھﻢ ﯾﻤﻠﻚ ﺣﺎﺳﺐ ﻣﺜﻞ‬
‫ﺣﺎﺳﺒﺎت ھﺬا اﻟﻌﺼﺮ!!! إﻧﻲ أﺟﺰم ﻟﺸﺎھﺪﻧﺎ طﺮق إﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ ﻏﯿﺮ اﻟﺘﻲ ﻧﺪرﺳﮭﺎ وﻧﺪرﺳﮭﺎ‬
‫اﻟﯿﻮم‪.‬‬
‫ﻟﻘﺪ ﺗﻄﺮﻗﺖ ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻜﺘﺎب إﻟﻰ طﺮق اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة اﻟﯿﺪوﯾﺔ واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻌﺘﺒﺮ ﻣﮭﻤﺔ وﺿﺮورﯾﺔ‬
‫ﻟﺘﻤﺮﯾﻦ اﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﻔﻜﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘﻲ واﻹﺣﺴﺎس ﺑﻤﺎ ﯾﺤﺪث أﺛﻨﺎء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة وھﻲ ﺗﺸﺒﺔ‬
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‫ﺗﺪرﯾﺐ اﻟﺠﻨﻮد ﻋﻠﻲ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻣﻤﻞ ﺷﺎق ﻣﺜﻞ ﺣﻤﻞ ﻋﺒﻮﺋﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺮﻣﻞ ﺗﺰن ‪ 50‬ﻛﺠﻢ وﯾﺼﻌﺪ‬
‫ﺑﮭﺎ ﺗﻞ وﯾﮭﺒﻂ ﻣﺌﺔ ﻣﺮة‪ ،‬أو ﻛﻼﻋﺐ ﻛﺮة اﻟﻘﺪم اﻟﺬي ﯾﺄﻣﺮه اﻟﻤﺪرب ﺑﺎﻟﺘﮭﺪﯾﻒ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻣﺮﻣﻰ ﻓﺎرغ ﻟﻤﺌﺔ ﻣﺮة‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﻰ اﻷﺟﺰاء اﻷوﻟﻰ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻜﺘﺎب ﻗﻤﺖ ﺑﺈﻋﻄﺎء أﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة اﻟﯿﺪوﯾﺔ ﺛﻢ ﺗﺒﻊ ذﻟﻚ أﻣﺜﻠﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪ Excel‬وﻓﻲ اﻷﺟﺰاء اﻷﺧﯿﺮة ﺗﻢ ﺗﻄﻮﯾﺮ وﺣﻞ ﻧﻤﺎذج ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام‬
‫‪ Arena‬و ‪ . GPSS World‬ﻓﻲ إﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﻲ ﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ‪ Microsoft Excel‬أﺳﺘﻌﻤﻠﺖ‬
‫اﻷواﻣﺮ واﻟﺪوال واﻟﺘﻲ أﺳﻤﯿﮭﺎ ‪ Minimal Excel‬اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻓﺮة ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻺﺻﺪارات‬
‫‪ 97‬و‪ 2000‬وﻟﻢ أﺳﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﻜﺜﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ دوال ﺗﻌﺮﯾﻒ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪم ‪User Defined‬‬
‫‪ Functions‬اﻟﺘﻲ طﻮرﺗﮭﺎ ﻹﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﻲ اﻟﺸﺨﺼﻲ واﻟﺘﻲ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺳﺘﺴﮭﻞ ﺣﻞ اﻟﻜﺜﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ‬
‫اﻷﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﺑﻄﺮق اﺳﮭﻞ واﻓﻀﻞ وذﻟﻚ ﻟﻌﺪم ﺗﻮﻓﺮھﺎ ﻟﻠﺠﻤﯿﻊ‪.‬‬
‫ھﺬا وارﺟﻮا ﻣﻦ ﷲ ان ﯾﻮﻓﻘﻨﻲ ﻓﻲ إﻧﺠﺎز ھﺬا اﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻟﻮﺟﮭﮫ اﻟﻜﺮﯾﻢ وﻹﺛﺮاء اﻟﻤﻜﺘﺒﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻌﺮﺑﯿﺔ اﻟﻔﻘﯿﺮة إﻟﻰ ﻣﺜﻞ ھﺬا اﻟﻜﺘﺎب‪.‬‬
‫ﺳﯿﻜﻮن ھﺬا اﻟﻜﺘﺎب ﻣﺠﺎﻧﻲ ﻷي طﺎﻟﺐ ﻋﻠﻢ وﺳﯿﻜﻮن ﻣﺘﻮاﺟﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﺒﻜﺔ اﻹﻧﺘﺮﻧﺖ ﻓﻲ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻮﻗﻊ ‪http://www.abarry.net/or/SimulationBook.pdf‬‬
‫وﷲ اﻟﻤﻮﻓﻖ‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺆﻟﻒ‬
‫د‪ .‬ﻋﺪﻧﺎن ﻣﺎﺟﺪ ﻋﺒﺪ اﻟﺮﺣﻤﻦ ﺑﺮي‬

‫رﺑﯿﻊ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ‪ 1423‬ھـ‬
‫ﯾﻮﻟﯿﺔ ‪ 2002‬م‬
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‫ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺘﻮﯾﺎت‪:‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻘﺪﻣﺔ ‪.......................................................................................‬‬
‫‪10‬‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻷول ‪................................................................................‬‬
‫‪10‬‬ ‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﻤﺎدة اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪........................................................................‬‬
‫‪10‬‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺎرﯾﻒ اﺳﺎﺳﯿﺔ ‪..............................................................................‬‬
‫‪11‬‬ ‫اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ‪............................................................................ Model‬‬
‫‪13‬‬ ‫أﻧﻮاع اﻟﻨﻤﺎذج ‪.................................................................................‬‬
‫‪14‬‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺮﯾﻒ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪..............................................................................‬‬
‫‪14‬‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻰ ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪........................................................................‬‬
‫‪16‬‬ ‫ﺧﻄﻮات إﻋﺪاد اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪......................................................................‬‬
‫‪20‬‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ‪..................................................................................‬‬
‫‪20‬‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺤﻜﺎة اﻟﯿﺪوﯾﺔ ﻟﺒﻌﺾ اﻷﻣﺜﻠﺔ‪................ Hand Simulation Examples :‬‬
‫‪20‬‬ ‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪ : 1‬طﺎﺑﻮر اﻟﺼﻒ اﻟﻮاﺣﺪ ‪........................ Single Channel Queue‬‬
‫‪24‬‬ ‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪ :2‬أﺣﻤﺪ وﺑﻜﺮ ﻟﻠﺨﺪﻣﺔ اﻟﺴﺮﯾﻌﺔ ‪.......................................................‬‬
‫‪26‬‬ ‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪ :3‬ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺑﺎﺋﻊ اﻟﺼﺤﻒ ‪................................................................‬‬
‫‪29‬‬ ‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪ :4‬ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﺨﺰﯾﻦ ‪..................................................................‬‬
‫‪38‬‬ ‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪ 5‬ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ‪..................................................................‬‬
‫‪45‬‬ ‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪ :6‬ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻧﻈﺎم ﺗﺨﺰﯾﻦ )‪..................................................... (M,N‬‬
‫‪50‬‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪..................................................................................‬‬
‫‪50‬‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﺻﻔﺤﺎت اﻟﻨﺸﺮ ‪...........................................................‬‬
‫‪50‬‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ إﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪............................................. Excel‬‬
‫‪53‬‬ ‫أﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪............................................................ Excel‬‬
‫‪53‬‬ ‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪ :1‬ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻣﺎﻛﻨﺔ ﺑﯿﻊ أوﺗﻮﻣﺎﺗﯿﻜﻲ ‪....................................................‬‬
‫‪54‬‬ ‫ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻣﺨﺮﺟﺎت اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪.............................................. Excel‬‬
‫‪58‬‬ ‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪ :2‬ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة طﺎﺑﻮر اﻟﺼﻒ اﻟﻮاﺣﺪ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪............................... Excel‬‬
‫‪60‬‬ ‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪ :3‬ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة أﺣﻤﺪ وﺑﻜﺮ ﻟﻠﺨﺪﻣﺔ اﻟﺴﺮﯾﻌﺔ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪...................… Excel‬‬
‫‪64‬‬ ‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪ :4‬ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺑﺎﺋﻊ اﻟﺼﺤﻒ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪.......................................... Excel‬‬
‫‪65‬‬ ‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪ :5‬ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻧﻈﺎم ﺗﺨﺰﯾﻦ )‪ (M,N‬ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪.............................. Excel‬‬
‫‪66‬‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ ‪..................................................................................‬‬
‫‪66‬‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ أرﻗﺎم ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ‪..........................................................................‬‬
‫‪66‬‬ ‫ﺧﻮاص اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ‪...................................................................‬‬
‫‪68‬‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ أرﻗﺎم ﺷﺒﮫ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ‪....................................................................‬‬
‫‪68‬‬ ‫طﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﺘﻄﺎﺑﻖ اﻟﺨﻄﻲ ‪......................... Linear Congruential Method‬‬
‫‪70‬‬ ‫إﺧﺘﺒﺎرات ﻟﻸرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ‪..................................................................‬‬
‫‪70‬‬ ‫إﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎوي ‪....................................................................‬‬
‫‪70‬‬ ‫إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻛﻮﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮروف – ﺳﻤﯿﺮﻧﻮف ‪............. Kolmogrov-Smirnov Test‬‬
‫إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻛﻮﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮروف – ﺳﻤﯿﺮﻧﻮف ‪ Kolmogrov-Smirnov Test‬ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام‬
‫‪72‬‬ ‫‪......................................................................................... Excel‬‬
‫‪74‬‬ ‫إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻛﺎي ‪.................................................... Chi-square Test‬‬
‫‪74‬‬ ‫إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻣﺮع ﻛﺎي ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪.....................................................… Excel‬‬
‫‪77‬‬ ‫إﺧﺘﺒﺎرات اﻹﺳﺘﻘﻼل ‪...........................................................................‬‬
‫‪77‬‬ ‫اﻟﺠﺮي ﻷﻋﻠﻰ واﻟﺠﺮي ﻷﺳﻔﻞ ‪.................... Runs Up and Runs Down‬‬
‫‪6‬‬
‫‪77‬‬ ‫اﻟﺠﺮي ﻷﻋﻠﻰ واﻟﺠﺮي ﻷﺳﻔﻞ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪........................................ Excel‬‬
‫‪80‬‬ ‫اﻟﺠﺮي ﻓﻮق وﺗﺤﺖ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪............ Runs above and below the mean‬‬
‫‪80‬‬ ‫اﻟﺠﺮي ﻓﻮق وﺗﺤﺖ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪......................................… Excel‬‬
‫‪82‬‬ ‫إﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﺘﺮاﺑﻂ اﻟﺬاﺗﻲ ‪..........................................................................‬‬
‫‪82‬‬ ‫إﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﺘﺮاﺑﻂ اﻟﺬاﺗﻲ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪...............................................… Excel‬‬
‫‪83‬‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ‪............................................................................... :‬‬
‫‪83‬‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮات ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ‪.....................................................................‬‬
‫‪84‬‬ ‫طﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﺘﺤﻮﯾﻞ اﻟﻌﻜﺴﻲ ‪..................... Inverse Transform Technique‬‬
‫‪85‬‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪات ﻣﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﯾﺘﺒﻊ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻷﺳﻲ ‪................................‬‬
‫‪86‬‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪات ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻷﺳﻲ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪................................... Excel‬‬
‫‪87‬‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪات ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎوي ﺑﯿﻦ )‪....................................... (a,b‬‬
‫‪88‬‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪات ﻣﻦ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ وﯾﺒﻞ ‪..........................................… Weibull‬‬
‫‪88‬‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪات ﻣﻦ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ وﯾﺒﻞ ‪ Weibull‬ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪........................ Excel‬‬
‫‪89‬‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪات ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺜﻠﺜﻲ ‪................... Triangular Distribution‬‬
‫ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪات ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺜﻠﺜﻲ ‪ Triangular Distribution‬ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام‬
‫‪90‬‬ ‫‪......................................................................................... Excel‬‬
‫‪92‬‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻌﺎت اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ ‪................................... Empirical Distributions‬‬
‫‪92‬‬ ‫ﻣﺜﺎل ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﻲ اﻟﻤﻨﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪............................... Excel‬‬
‫‪93‬‬ ‫ﻣﺜﺎل ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﻲ اﻟﻤﺘﺼﻞ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪............................... Excel‬‬
‫‪94‬‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪات ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﻲ اﻟﻤﻨﻔﺼﻞ ‪..........................................‬‬
‫‪95‬‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪات ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﻲ اﻟﻤﺘﺼﻞ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪...................... Excel‬‬
‫‪98‬‬ ‫طﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﺘﺤﻮﯾﻞ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﻟﻠﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻄﺒﯿﻌﻲ ‪............ Direct Transformation‬‬
‫‪99‬‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺴﺎدس‪.............................................................................. :‬‬
‫‪99‬‬ ‫ﻧﻤﺬﺟﺔ اﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼت ‪.................................................... Input Modeling‬‬
‫‪99‬‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻌﺮف ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات ‪......................................................‬‬
‫‪101‬‬ ‫ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻔﺌﺎت ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻜﻞ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري ‪...........................................‬‬
‫‪103‬‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻌﺮف ﻋﻠﻰ وإﺧﺘﯿﺎر اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات ‪...........................................‬‬
‫‪103‬‬ ‫ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ذات اﻟﺤﺪﯾﻦ ‪........................................................… Binomial‬‬
‫‪103‬‬ ‫ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ذات اﻟﺤﺪﯾﻦ اﻟﺴﺎﻟﺐ ‪..................................... Negative Binomial‬‬
‫‪104‬‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﮭﻨﺪﺳﻲ ‪......................................... Geometric Distribution‬‬
‫‪104‬‬ ‫ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﺑﻮاﺳﻮن ‪...............................................................… Poisson‬‬
‫‪105‬‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻄﺒﯿﻌﻲ ‪.............................................................… Normal‬‬
‫‪106‬‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻄﺒﯿﻌﻲ اﻟﻠﻮﻏﺎرﺛﻤﻲ ‪........................................… Lognormal‬‬
‫‪106‬‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻷﺳﻲ ‪........................................................… Exponential‬‬
‫‪107‬‬ ‫ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﺟﺎﻣﺎ ‪...................................................................… Gamma‬‬
‫‪108‬‬ ‫ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﺑﯿﺘﺎ ‪..........................................................................… Beta‬‬
‫‪108‬‬ ‫ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ إرﻻﻧﺞ ‪...................................................................… Erlang‬‬
‫‪109‬‬ ‫ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ وﯾﺒﻞ ‪..................................................................… Weibull‬‬
‫‪110‬‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎوي اﻟﻤﺘﺼﻞ أو اﻟﻤﻨﻔﺼﻞ ‪Discrete or Continuous Uniform‬‬
‫‪111‬‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺜﻠﺜﻲ ‪..........................................................… Triangular‬‬
‫‪112‬‬ ‫اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﻲ ‪........................................................… Empirical‬‬
‫‪112‬‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺪﯾﺮ اﻟﻤﻌﺎﻟﻢ ‪.............................................. Parameters Estimation‬‬
‫‪113‬‬ ‫ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﻤﻘﺪرات اﻟﻤﻘﺘﺮﺣﺔ ﻟﺒﻌﺾ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻌﺎت ‪.............................................‬‬
‫‪7‬‬
‫‪113‬‬ ‫إﺧﺘﺒﺎرات ﺣﺴﻦ أو ﺟﻮدة اﻟﺘﻄﺎﺑﻖ ‪...................... Goodness of Fit Tests‬‬
‫‪113‬‬ ‫رﺳﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﺮﺑﯿﻌﺎت‪-‬اﻟﺮﺑﯿﻌﺎت ‪........................ Quantile-Quantile Plots‬‬
‫‪114‬‬ ‫رﺳﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﺮﺑﯿﻌﺎت‪-‬اﻟﺮﺑﯿﻌﺎت ‪ Quantile-Quantile Plots‬ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪.... Excel‬‬
‫‪115‬‬ ‫إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻛﺎي ﻟﺠﻮدة اﻟﺘﻄﺎﺑﻖ ‪....... Chi-square Goodness of Fit Test‬‬
‫إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻛﺎي ﻟﺠﻮدة اﻟﺘﻄﺎﺑﻖ ‪Chi-square Goodness of Fit Test‬‬
‫‪115‬‬ ‫ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪............................................................................. Excel‬‬
‫إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻛﻮﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮروف‪ -‬ﺳﻤﯿﺮﻧﻮف ﻟﺠﻮدة اﻟﺘﻄﺎﺑﻖ ‪K-S Goodness of Fit‬‬
‫‪117‬‬ ‫‪........................................................................................... Test‬‬
‫‪117‬‬ ‫‪ Test‬ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪.................................................................... Excel‬‬
‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻊ‪:‬‬
‫‪119‬‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻟﻐﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪................................................ SIMAN‬‬
‫‪119‬‬ ‫ﺧﻄﻮات إﺟﺮاء ‪................................................................... SIMAN‬‬
‫‪120‬‬ ‫أﺳﺎﺳﯿﺎت اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ ﻓﻲ ‪............................................................ SIMAN‬‬
‫‪120‬‬ ‫ﻗﻮاﻋﺪ ﻟﻐﺔ ‪......................................................................... SIMAN‬‬
‫‪120‬‬ ‫ﻗﻮاﻟﺐ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ‪.................................................................................‬‬
‫‪121‬‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ ‪...............................................................................‬‬
‫‪123‬‬ ‫ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ اﻟﻤﺎﻛﻨﺔ اﻟﻮاﺣﺪة ‪........................................................................‬‬
‫‪126‬‬ ‫ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ اﻟﻤﺎﻛﻨﺔ اﻟﻮاﺣﺪة ﻣﻄﻮرة ‪...............................................................‬‬
‫‪129‬‬ ‫ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻧﻮﻋﯿﻦ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻮظﺎﺋﻒ وﻣﺤﻄﺘﻲ ﻋﻤﻞ ‪................................................‬‬
‫‪133‬‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺜﺎﻣﻦ‪:‬‬
‫‪133‬‬ ‫اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﺣﺰﻣﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪...........................… ARENA‬‬
‫‪134‬‬ ‫ﺑﻨﺎء اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ‪...................................................................................‬‬
‫‪147‬‬ ‫ﻧﺘﯿﺠﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة واﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ ‪.....................................................................‬‬
‫‪148‬‬ ‫إدﺧﺎل ﺗﺤﺴﯿﻨﺎت ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ‪..............................................................‬‬
‫‪158‬‬ ‫ﻧﺘﯿﺠﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة واﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ ‪......................................................................‬‬
‫‪159‬‬ ‫ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻤﺨﺮﺟﺎت ‪................................................... Output Analysis‬‬
‫‪165‬‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﺳﻊ‪................................................................................ :‬‬
‫‪165‬‬ ‫اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﺣﺰﻣﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪................................... GPSS‬‬
‫‪165‬‬ ‫أواﻣﺮ ‪................................................................................ GPSS‬‬
‫‪167‬‬ ‫ﻋﺒﺎرات ﻗﻮاﻟﺐ ‪..................................................................... GPSS‬‬
‫‪173‬‬ ‫اﻟﺼﻔﺎت اﻟﻌﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻓﺮة ﻓﻲ ‪............................................ GPSS‬‬
‫‪180‬‬ ‫اﻟﻌﻤﺎل ‪ Operators‬اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻓﻲ ‪............................................ GPSS‬‬
‫‪183‬‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺷﺒﺎك ﺗﺬاﻛﺮ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺧﻞ ﻣﻠﻌﺐ ﻛﺮة اﻟﻘﺪم ‪.........................................‬‬
‫‪183‬‬ ‫ﻋﺮض اﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ‪................................................................................‬‬
‫‪183‬‬ ‫ﻋﺮض اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺑﻠﻐﺔ ‪.............................................................. GPSS‬‬
‫‪183‬‬ ‫وﺻﻒ ﻋﻤﻞ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ‪........................................................................‬‬
‫‪184‬‬ ‫إﺟﺮاء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪...............................................................................‬‬
‫‪186‬‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ‪.................................................................................‬‬
‫‪186‬‬ ‫داﺧﻞ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪................................................................................‬‬
‫‪190‬‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻧﻈﺎم ھﺎﺗﻒ ﺑﺴﯿﻂ ‪....................................................................‬‬
‫‪190‬‬ ‫ﻋﺮض اﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ‪...............................................................................‬‬
‫‪190‬‬ ‫ﻋﺮض اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺑﻠﻐﺔ ‪............................................................. GPSS‬‬
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‫‪191‬‬ ‫وﺻﻒ ﻋﻤﻞ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ‪........................................................................‬‬
‫‪193‬‬ ‫إﺟﺮاء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪...............................................................................‬‬
‫‪193‬‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ‪.................................................................................‬‬
‫‪194‬‬ ‫داﺧﻞ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪................................................................................‬‬
‫‪199‬‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻧﻈﺎم ﺗﺨﺰﯾﻦ ﺑﻤﺮاﺟﻌﺔ دورﯾﺔ ‪.......................................................‬‬
‫‪199‬‬ ‫ﻋﺮض اﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ‪...............................................................................‬‬
‫‪200‬‬ ‫وﺻﻒ ﻋﻤﻞ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ‪........................................................................‬‬
‫‪204‬‬ ‫إﺟﺮاء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪................................................................................‬‬
‫‪204‬‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ‪.................................................................................‬‬
‫‪205‬‬ ‫داﺧﻞ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪................................................................................‬‬
‫‪208‬‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ورﺷﺔ ﺗﺼﻠﯿﺢ ﺗﻠﻔﺰﯾﻮن ‪..............................................................‬‬
‫‪208‬‬ ‫ﻋﺮض اﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ‪...............................................................................‬‬
‫‪209‬‬ ‫وﺻﻒ ﻋﻤﻞ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ‪........................................................................‬‬
‫‪213‬‬ ‫إﺟﺮاء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪................................................................................‬‬
‫‪213‬‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ‪.................................................................................‬‬
‫‪213‬‬ ‫داﺧﻞ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪................................................................................‬‬
‫‪217‬‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻧﻈﺎم اﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﻓﻲ ﺟﻮدة‪...............................................................‬‬
‫‪217‬‬ ‫ﻋﺮض اﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ‪...............................................................................‬‬
‫‪218‬‬ ‫وﺻﻒ ﻋﻤﻞ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ‪........................................................................‬‬
‫‪223‬‬ ‫إﺟﺮاء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪................................................................................‬‬
‫‪223‬‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ‪..................................................................................‬‬
‫‪224‬‬ ‫داﺧﻞ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪.................................................................................‬‬
‫‪227‬‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻧﻈﺎم ﺗﺨﺰﯾﻦ ﺑﻨﻘﻄﺔ طﻠﺐ ‪............................................................‬‬
‫‪227‬‬ ‫ﻋﺮض اﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ‪...............................................................................‬‬
‫‪227‬‬ ‫وﺻﻒ ﻋﻤﻞ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ‪........................................................................‬‬
‫‪228‬‬ ‫إﺟﺮاء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪................................................................................‬‬
‫‪230‬‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ‪..................................................................................‬‬
‫‪230‬‬ ‫داﺧﻞ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪.................................................................................‬‬
‫‪232‬‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻧﻈﺎم ﺗﺼﻨﯿﻊ ﻗﻄﻊ إﻟﻜﺘﺮوﻧﯿﺔ ‪........................................................‬‬
‫‪232‬‬ ‫ﻋﺮض اﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ‪...............................................................................‬‬
‫‪232‬‬ ‫وﺻﻒ ﻋﻤﻞ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ‪........................................................................‬‬
‫‪234‬‬ ‫إﺟﺮاء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪...............................................................................‬‬
‫‪234‬‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ‪..................................................................................‬‬
‫‪234‬‬ ‫داﺧﻞ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪.................................................................................‬‬
‫‪237‬‬ ‫ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺳﻮق ﻣﺮﻛﺰي ‪........................................................................‬‬
‫‪237‬‬ ‫ﻋﺮض اﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ‪...............................................................................‬‬
‫‪238‬‬ ‫وﺻﻒ ﻋﻤﻞ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ‪........................................................................‬‬
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‫‪241‬‬ ‫إﺟﺮاء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪...............................................................................‬‬
‫‪241‬‬ ‫ﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ‪.................................................................................‬‬
‫‪241‬‬ ‫داﺧﻞ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪.................................................................................‬‬
‫‪244‬‬ ‫ﻣﻠﺤﻖ )‪ (1‬ﻗﻮاﻟﺐ ‪.................................................................... GPSS‬‬
‫‪262‬‬ ‫ﻣﻠﺤﻖ )‪ (2‬أواﻣﺮ ‪................................................................… GPSS‬‬
‫‪269‬‬ ‫ﻣﻠﺤﻖ )‪ (3‬اﻟﺼﻔﺎت اﻟﻌﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم ‪..........................................................‬‬
‫‪272‬‬ ‫ﻣﻠﺤﻖ )‪ (4‬ﻋﻤﺎل ‪.................................................................... GPSS‬‬
‫‪274‬‬ ‫ﻣﻠﺤﻖ )‪ (5‬أﺷﻜﺎل ﺗﻤﺜﯿﻞ ﻗﻮاﻟﺐ ‪................................................... GPSS‬‬
‫‪275‬‬ ‫ﻣﻠﺤﻖ )‪ (6‬أﺳﺌﻠﺔ اﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎرات اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ وأﺟﻮﺑﺘﮭﺎ ‪............................................‬‬
‫‪407‬‬ ‫ﺗﻤﺎرﯾﻦ ‪..........................................................................................‬‬
‫‪421‬‬ ‫‪..................................................................................‬‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺮاﺟﻊ‬
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‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻷول‪:‬‬
‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﻤﺎدة اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ھﻲ اﺣﺪ اﻟﻮﺳﺎﺋﻞ اﻟﻤﮭﻤﺔ ﻟﺤﻞ اﻟﻤﺸﺎﻛﻞ ‪ Problem Solving Techniques‬وھﻲ اﻟﻮﺳﯿﻠﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻮﺣﯿﺪة واﻷﺧﯿﺮة ﻟﺤﻞ أي ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ إذا ﻣﺎ إﺳﺘﻌﺼﻰ ﺣﻠﮭﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﺮق اﻟﺘﺤﻠﯿﻠﯿﺔ ‪ Analytic Methods‬او‬
‫‪Resampling‬‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺪدﯾﺔ ‪ .Numerical Methods‬وﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻋﻠﻲ طﺮق إﻋﺎدة اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ‬
‫‪ Methods‬وﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ أرﻗﺎم وﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮات ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﻟﮭﺎ ﺻﻔﺎت ﻣﻌﯿﻨﺔ‪ .‬ﺳﻮف ﻧﺒﺪأ أوﻻ ﺑﺘﻌﺮﯾﻒ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‬
‫وﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺗﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺗﻌﺎرﯾﻒ اوﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ‪: System‬‬
‫ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻷﺷﯿﺎء ﺗﺘﻔﺎﻋﻞ وﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻌﻀﮭﺎ اﻟﺒﻌﺾ‪.‬‬
‫ﻛﺎﺋﻦ ‪: Entity‬‬
‫وھﻮ ﺷﯿﺊ أو ﻛﯿﻨﻮﻧﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻟﻨﺎ ﺑﮭﺎ إھﺘﻤﺎم ﺧﺎص‪.‬‬
‫ﺻﻔﺔ ‪: Attribute‬‬
‫وھﻮ ﺧﺎﺻﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻜﺎﺋﻦ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﺸﺎط ‪: Activity‬‬
‫أي ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺔ ﺗﺴﺒﺐ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪.‬‬
‫ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ‪: State of the System‬‬
‫وھﻲ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮات ﺗﺼﻒ ﻛﻞ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت وﺻﻔﺎﺗﮭﺎ واﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻋﻨﺪ ﻟﺤﻈﺔ ﻣﻌﯿﻨﺔ‪.‬‬
‫وﯾﺪرس ﺗﻄﻮر اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﺑﺘﺘﺒﻊ اﻟﺘﻐﯿﺮات ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺘﮫ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل‪:‬‬
‫ﻟﻨﻌﺘﺒﺮ ﻣﺼﻨﻊ ﯾﻨﺘﺞ ﺑﻀﺎﻋﺔ وﯾﺠﻤﯿﻊ ﻗﻄﻌﮭﺎ‪ .‬اﻷﺟﺰاء اﻷﺳﺎﺳﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ھﻲ ﻗﺴﻢ اﻟﺘﺼﻨﯿﻊ‬
‫اﻟﺬي ﯾﺼﻨﻊ اﻟﻘﻄﻊ وﻗﺴﻢ اﻟﺘﺠﻤﯿﻊ اﻟﺬي ﯾﺠﻤﻊ ھﺬه اﻟﻘﻄﻊ ﻹﻧﺘﺎج اﻟﺒﻀﺎﻋﺔ وﻗﺴﻢ اﻟﻤﺸﺘﺮﯾﺎت اﻟﺬي‬
‫ﯾﺆﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻮاد اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺔ وﻗﺴﻢ اﻟﺸﺤﻦ اﻟﺬي ﯾﺠﮭﺰ اﻟﺒﻀﺎﻋﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺤﻦ وﻗﺴﻢ ﻣﺮاﻗﺒﺔ اﻹﻧﺘﺎج اﻟﺬي ﯾﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ‬
‫اﻟﻄﻠﺒﺎت ﻋﻠﻲ اﻟﺒﻀﺎﻋﺔ وﯾﻘﺴﻢ اﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻲ ﺑﻘﯿﺔ اﻷﻗﺴﺎم‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪:‬‬

‫اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت ھﻲ‪ :‬اﻻﻗﺴﺎم‪ ،‬اﻟﻄﻠﺒﺎت‪ ،‬اﻷﺟﺰاء‪ ،‬اﻟﺒﻀﺎﺋﻊ اﻟﺦ‬
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‫اﻟﻨﺸﺎطﺎت ھﻲ‪ :‬ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﺼﻨﯿﻊ وﻋﻤﻠﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﺠﻤﯿﻊ وﻋﻤﻠﯿﺔ ﺷﺮاء اﻟﻤﻮاد اﻟﺨﺎم وﻋﻤﻠﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﺠﮭﯿﺰ‬
‫واﻟﺸﺤﻦ اﻟﺦ‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﺼﻔﺎت ھﻲ‪ :‬اﻟﻜﻤﯿﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ طﻠﺐ‪ ،‬ﻧﻮع اﻟﻘﻄﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻋﺪد اﻟﻤﻜﺎﺋﻦ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ ﻗﺴﻢ اﻟﺦ‬
‫واﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﯾﻌﻄﻲ اﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻷﻧﻈﻤﺔ ﻣﻌﯿﻨﺔ وﺑﻌﺾ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺗﮭﺎ‪:‬‬
‫اﻧﺸﻄﺔ‬ ‫ﺻﻔﺎت‬ ‫ﻛﺎﺋﻨﺎت‬ ‫اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‬

‫ﺳﻮاﻗﺔ‬ ‫ﺳﺮﻋﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺴﺎﻓﺔ‬ ‫ﺳﯿﺎرات‬ ‫ﻣﺮور‬
‫ﺳﺤﺐ ﻧﻘﺪ‪ ،‬طﻠﺐ‬ ‫داﺋﻦ‪ ،‬رﻗﻢ اﻟﺤﺴﺎب‬ ‫زﺑﺎﺋﻦ‬ ‫ﺑﻨﻚ‬
‫ﻗﺮض‬
‫إرﺳﺎل‪ ،‬ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻞ‬ ‫طﻮل اﻟﻤﻜﺎﻟﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﺟﮭﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻜﺎﻟﻤﺎت‪ ،‬رﺳﺎﺋﻞ‬ ‫إﺗﺼﺎﻻت‬
‫اﻹﺗﺼﺎل‬
‫دﻓﻊ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﺸﺘﺮﯾﺎت‬ ‫ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ اﻟﺘﺴﻮﯾﻖ‬ ‫زﺑﺎﺋﻦ‬ ‫ﺳﻮق ﻣﺮﻛﺰي‬
‫وھﺬا اﻟﺠﺪول ﻻﯾﻌﻄﻲ ﺣﺼﺮ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﻟﺠﻤﯿﻊ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت واﻟﺼﻔﺎت واﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻟﮭﺬه اﻷﻧﻈﻤﺔ ﻷن ذﻟﻚ‬
‫ﯾﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ اﻷھﺪاف اﻟﺘﻲ ﻣﻦ اﺟﻠﮭﺎ ﻧﺪرس اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪ .‬وإﻋﺘﻤﺎدا ﻋﻠﻲ اﻷھﺪاف اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ‬
‫ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ وﺻﻒ أدق ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم وﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺗﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﯿﺌﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪:‬‬
‫ﯾﺘﺄﺛﺮ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺤﺪث ﺧﺎرﺟﮫ ﻛﻤﺎ اﻧﮫ ﯾﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻲ اﻟﻤﺤﯿﻂ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻮﻟﮫ ﻣﺜﻞ ھﺬه اﻟﺘﻐﯿﺮات‬
‫ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻲ ﺑﯿﺌﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪ .‬ﻓﻤﻦ اﻟﻤﮭﻢ ﺟﺪا ﻋﻨﺪ ﻧﻤﺬﺟﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ان ﻧﻤﯿﺰ اﻟﺤﺪود ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم وﺑﯿﺌﺘﮫ وھﺬا‬
‫ﯾﺘﺤﺪد ﺑﻤﻌﺮﻓﺔ اﻷھﺪاف ﻣﻦ وراء دراﺳﺔ ھﺬا اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﻔﻲ ﻣﺜﺎل اﻟﻤﺼﻨﻊ اﻟﻌﻮاﻣﻞ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﻠﺒﺎت ﻋﻠﻲ اﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎت ﺗﻌﺘﺒﺮ ﺧﺎرج ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم وﻟﮭﺬا‬
‫ﻓﮭﻲ ﺟﺰء ﻣﻦ ﺑﯿﺌﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم وﻟﻜﻦ إذا ﻛﺎن ﻟﻠﻌﺮض ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻋﻠﻲ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻓﯿﺠﺐ اﺧﺬ ذﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﻷﻋﺘﺒﺎر إذ ان‬
‫ھﻨﺎك ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﺨﺮﺟﺎت اﻟﻤﺼﻨﻊ ووﺻﻮل اﻟﻄﻠﺒﺎت وﯾﺴﻤﻰ ھﺬا ﺗﻐﺬﯾﺔ ﺧﻠﻔﯿﺔ ‪ Feedback‬وﺗﻌﺘﺒﺮ‬
‫ھﺬة اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ﻧﺸﺎط ﻣﻦ اﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪.‬‬
‫اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﺪاﺧﻠﯿﺔ ‪ :Endogenous Activities‬وﺗﺼﻒ اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ داﺧﻞ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪.‬‬
‫اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﯿﺔ ‪ :Exogenous Activities‬وﺗﺼﻒ اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺑﯿﺌﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻲ‬
‫ھﺬا اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪ .‬اﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﺬي ﻻﯾﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺑﺄﻧﺸﻄﺔ ﺧﺎرﺟﯿﺔ ﯾﺴﻤﻲ ﻧﻈﺎم ﻣﻐﻠﻖ ﺑﻌﻜﺲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﺬي ﯾﺘﺄﺛﺮ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﯿﺔ واﻟﺬي ﯾﻮﺻﻒ ﺑﺄﻧﮫ ﻧﻈﺎم ﻣﻔﺘﻮح‪.‬‬
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‫اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺪدة ‪ :Deterministic Activities‬وھﻲ اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺠﮭﺎ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺗﺎم ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﻣﺪﺧﻼﺗﮭﺎ‪.‬‬
‫اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ‪ : Stochastic Activities‬وھﻲ اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮھﺎ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ وﺗﻜﻮن‬
‫ﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺠﮭﺎ إﻣﻜﺎﻧﯿﺎت ﻣﺘﻌﺪدة ﺗﻮﺻﻒ ﺑﺘﻮزﯾﻊ إﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﻤﺜﻼ اﻟﻮﻗﺖ اﻟﺬي ﺗﺴﺘﻐﺮﻗﮫ آﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺠﻤﯿﻊ ﯾﻮﺻﻒ‬
‫ﺑﺘﻮزﯾﻊ إﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻛﻤﺎ ان اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﺑﯿﻦ إﻋﻄﺎل آﻟﺔ ﯾﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ‪.‬‬
‫اﻷﻧﻈﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﺼﻠﮫ ‪:Continuous Systems‬‬
‫وھﻲ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻓﯿﮭﺎ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﺘﺼﻞ وﻣﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﻓﻤﺜﻼ إﺗﺠﺎه ﺣﺮﻛﺔ طﺎﺋﺮة ﻓﻲ ﻣﺴﺎر ﺟﻮي‬
‫ﺗﺤﺖ ﺗﺤﻜﻢ اﻟﻄﯿﺎر اﻵﻟﻲ ﺗﺤﺪث ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻧﺎﻋﻢ ‪ Smooth‬ﻟﺘﺼﺤﯿﺢ اﻹﺗﺠﺎه‪.‬‬
‫اﻷﻧﻈﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﻨﻔﺼﻠﺔ ‪:Discrete Systems‬‬
‫واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻓﯿﮭﺎ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﺘﻘﻄﻊ ﻣﻊ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﻓﻤﺜﻼ إﻛﻤﺎل ﺑﻀﺎﻋﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺼﻨﻊ ﯾﺤﺪث‬
‫ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﺘﻘﻄﻊ‪ ،‬وﺻﻮل طﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻲ اﻟﺒﻀﺎﺋﻊ ﯾﺤﺪث ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﺘﻘﻄﻊ اﻟﺦ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﻤﺬﺟﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ‪:System Modeling‬‬
‫اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ‪: Model‬‬
‫ھﻮ ﺗﺠﺮﯾﺪ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم ﯾﺘﻜﻮن ﻣﻦ ﺗﺠﻤﻊ ﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﺣﻮل اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻟﻐﺮض دراﺳﺘﮫ‪ .‬وﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﻧﻈﺎم ﻣﺎ ﯾﺠﺐ‬
‫ان ﻧﻜﻮن او ﻧﺒﻨﻲ ﻧﻤﻮذج ‪ Model‬ﻟﻮﺻﻒ ھﺬا اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻟﻐﺮض إﺟﺮاء ﺗﺠﺎرب ﻟﻺﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻋﻠﻲ أﺳﺌﻠﺔ‬
‫وإﻓﺘﺮاﺿﺎت ﻻﯾﻤﻜﻦ إﺟﺮاﺋﮭﺎ ﻋﻠﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮة وذﻟﻚ ﺣﺘﻲ ﻻﯾﻀﻄﺮب اﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻷﺻﻠﻲ وﯾﺤﺪث‬
‫إرﺗﺒﺎك ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﮫ ﯾﺆدي اﻟﻲ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم وﻓﻘﺪاﻧﮫ ﻟﺨﻮاﺻﮫ اﻷﺻﻠﯿﺔ ﻛﻤﺎ ان دراﺳﺔ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﺑﺪﻻ ﻣﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﺗﻤﻜﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺗﺠﺮﺑﺔ ﻋﺪة ﺣﻮارات ﺣﻮل اﻟﻨﻈﺎم وذﻟﻚ ﺑﺈﻋﺎدة اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج اﻟﻲ اﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ اﻷﺻﻠﯿﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ‬
‫إﺟﺮاء ﻛﻞ ﺣﻮار ﺑﻌﻜﺲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻷﺻﻠﻲ اﻟﺬي إذا ﺗﻐﯿﺮ ﻻﯾﻤﻜﻦ إﻋﺎدﺗﺔ ﻣﺮة اﺧﺮى ﻟﺤﺎﻟﺘﺔ اﻷﺻﻠﯿﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻤﺜﻼ ﻟﺪراﺳﺔ ﻧﻈﺎم إﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﺑﺘﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺎت اﻟﻌﺮض واﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻗﺪ ﯾﺆدي اﻟﻲ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻻﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﻋﻜﺴﮭﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻛﻤﺎ أن اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﯾﺪرس ﻓﻲ أزﻣﻨﺔ إﻓﺘﺮاﺿﯿﺔ ﻓﻤﺜﻼ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ إﺟﺮاء ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام‬
‫اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج وﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺑﻌﺾ ﺗﺼﺮﻓﺎت اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻟﻔﺘﺮات ﻋﺪة اﺷﮭﺮ او ﺳﻨﯿﻦ ﻓﻲ دﻗﺎﺋﻖ ﻗﻠﯿﻠﺔ‪ .‬وﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ‬
‫ﻋﻦ طﺮﯾﻖ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج دراﺳﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻗﺒﻞ إﻧﺸﺎﺋﮫ ووﺟﻮده اﺻﻼ ﻓﻤﺜﻼ ﻧﺮﯾﺪ ﺑﻨﺎء ﻣﺼﻨﻊ وﻟﺪﯾﻨﺎ ﻋﺪة‬
‫ﺧﯿﺎرات ﻟﻠﺒﻨﺎء ﻓﻠﺘﺤﺪﯾﺪ اي ﺧﯿﺎر اﻓﻀﻞ ﻧﻜﻮن ﻧﻤﻮذج ﻟﻜﻞ ﺧﯿﺎر وﻧﺤﺎﻛﻲ ﺗﺼﺮف اﻟﻤﺼﻨﻊ ﺗﺤﺖ ھﺬه‬
‫اﻟﺨﯿﺎرات‪.‬‬
‫أﻧﻮاع اﻟﻨﻤﺎذج‪:‬‬
‫ﻓﯿﺰﯾﺎﺋﯿﺔ ) ﻣﺎدﯾﺔ ( ‪ :Physical Models‬وھﻲ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺒﻨﻲ ﺑﻤﻮاد ﺣﺴﯿﺔ ﻣﺜﻞ ﺑﻨﺎء ﻧﻤﻮذج ﻟﻄﺎﺋﺮة ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ اﻟﺘﺼﻤﯿﻢ وذﻟﻚ ﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر ھﯿﻜﻠﮭﺎ ﺗﺤﺖ ظﺮوف ﻣﻌﯿﻨﺔ‪.‬‬
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‫رﯾﺎﺿﯿﺔ ) ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠﯿﺔ او ﺗﺠﺮﯾﺪﯾﺔ ( ‪:Mathematical Models‬‬
‫واﻟﺘﻲ ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻟﺒﻨﺎﺋﮭﺎ ﻋﻼﻗﺎت رﯾﺎﺿﯿﺔ ) ﺗﻮزﯾﻌﺎت إﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪ ،‬دوال‪ ،‬ﺟﺪاول‪ ،‬رﺳﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﺦ(‬
‫ھﻨﺎك اﯾﻀﺎ ﺗﺼﻨﯿﻒ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﺎذج اﻟﺠﺎﻣﺪة ‪ Static Models‬واﻟﺘﻲ ﻻﺗﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﺣﺎﻟﺘﮭﺎ ﻣﻊ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ واﻟﻨﻤﺎذج‬
‫اﻟﺤﺮﻛﯿﺔ أو اﻟﺪﯾﻨﺎﻣﯿﻜﯿﺔ ‪ Dynamic Models‬واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﺣﺎﻟﺘﮭﺎ ﻣﻊ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ‪.‬‬
‫وﻛﻤﺜﺎل ﻋﻠﻲ اﻟﻨﻤﺎذج اﻟﻔﯿﺰﯾﺎﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﺠﺎﻣﺪة ﻧﻤﻮذج ﻟﺒﻨﺎء اﻟﻤﺴﺠﺪ اﻟﺤﺮام‪ ،‬ﻧﻤﻮذج ﺳﻔﯿﻨﺔ او طﺎﺋﺮة ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﻣﻜﺘﺐ ﺳﯿﺎﺣﻲ اﻟﺦ وﻛﻤﺜﺎل ﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﻓﯿﺰﯾﺎﺋﻲ ﺣﺮﻛﻲ ﻧﻤﺎذج آﻟﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﺮاق اﻟﺪاﺧﻠﻲ ﻓﻲ ورﺷﺔ‬
‫ﻛﻠﯿﺔ اﻟﮭﻨﺪﺳﺔ وﻛﺜﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻤﺎذج اﻟﻔﯿﺰﯾﺎﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﺤﺮﻛﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻗﺴﻢ اﻟﻔﯿﺰﯾﺎء ﺑﻜﻠﯿﺔ اﻟﻌﻠﻮم‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻤﺮﯾﻦ‪ :‬أذﻛﺮ أﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻟﺒﻌﺾ اﻟﻨﻤﺎذج اﻟﺮﯾﺎﺿﯿﺔ اﻟﺠﺎﻣﺪة وﻛﺬﻟﻚ اﻟﺤﺮﻛﯿﺔ‪ ).‬إﯾﻌﺎذ‪ :‬اﻟﻈﻮاھﺮ اﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫ﺗﻮﺻﻒ ﺑﻤﻌﺎدﻻت ﺗﻔﺎﺿﻠﯿﺔ أو ﻓﺮوﻗﯿﺔ ﺗﻜﻮن ﺣﺮﻛﯿﺔ(‬
‫وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﻤﺜﯿﻞ اﻧﻮاع اﻟﻨﻤﺎذج ﺑﯿﺎﻧﯿﺎ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪MODELS‬‬
‫‪PHYSICAL‬‬ ‫‪MATHEMATICAL‬‬
‫‪STATIC‬‬ ‫‪DYNAMIC‬‬ ‫‪STATIC‬‬ ‫‪DYNAMIC‬‬
‫‪NUMERICAL‬‬ ‫‪ANALYTICAL‬‬ ‫‪NUMERICAL‬‬ ‫‪SIMULATION‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﻮﺿﯿﺢ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻗﺴﻤﻨﺎ اﻟﻨﻤﺎذج اﻟﺮﯾﺎﺿﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﺎﻛﻨﺔ إﻟﻰ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠﯿﺔ ‪ Analytical‬و ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ‬
‫‪ Numerical‬واﻟﻨﻤﺎذج اﻟﺮﯾﺎﺿﯿﺔ اﻟﺤﺮﻛﯿﺔ إﻟﻰ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠﯿﺔ ‪ Analytical‬و ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ‪ Numerical‬و ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة‬
‫‪ Simulation‬وذﻟﻚ ﻷن اﻟﻘﻠﯿﻞ ﺟﺪا ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻤﺎذج اﻟﺮﯾﺎﺿﯿﺔ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﺣﻠﮭﺎ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠﯿﺎ وذﻟﻚ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام‬
‫اﻟﻨﻈﺮﯾﺎت اﻟﺮﯾﺎﺿﯿﺔ واﻹﺳﺘﻨﺘﺎﺟﺎت اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘﯿﺔ‪ ،‬وأﻏﻠﺒﮭﺎ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﺣﻠﮭﺎ ﻋﺪدﯾﺎ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻄﺮق‬
‫واﻟﺨﻮارزﻣﺎت اﻟﻌﺪدﯾﺔ‪ ،‬وﺟﻤﯿﻌﮭﺎ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﺣﻠﮭﺎ ﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻌﺮﯾﻒ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ھﻮ ﺗﻘﻠﯿﺪ او ﺗﻤﺜﯿﻞ ﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻧﻈﺎم ﺣﻘﯿﻘﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺘﺮة زﻣﻨﯿﺔ ﻣﻌﯿﻨﺔ‪ .‬وﺳﻮاء اﺟﺮﯾﻨﺎ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﯾﺪوﯾﺎ‬
‫او ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﺤﺎﺳﺐ ﻓﺈﻧﮭﺎ ﺗﺸﺘﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﺗﺎرﯾﺦ ﻣﺼﻄﻨﻊ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم وذﻟﻚ ﻟﻐﺮض إﺳﺘﻨﺘﺎج‬
‫اﻟﺨﻮاص اﻟﺘﺸﻐﯿﻠﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﻲ‪.‬‬
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‫واﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻄﻮﯾﺮ ﻧﻤﻮذج ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﻲ‪ .‬ھﺬا اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﯾﻜﻮن ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﻌﻤﻞ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم وھﺬه اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺎت ﺗﻜﻮن ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻋﻼﻗﺎت رﯾﺎﺿﯿﺔ او ﻣﻨﻄﻘﯿﺔ‬
‫او رﻣﺰﯾﺔ ‪ Symbolic‬ﺑﯿﻦ ﻛﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪ .‬ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻄﻮﯾﺮ وﺗﻔﻌﯿﻞ ‪ validate‬اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﮫ ﻹﺟﺮاء‬
‫ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرب اﻟﺘﻲ ﻻﯾﻤﻜﻦ إﺟﺮاﺋﮭﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﻲ وذﻟﻚ ﻟﻐﺮض ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ وإﺳﺘﻨﺘﺎج‬
‫اﻟﺘﻐﯿﺮات واﻟﺘﻔﺎﻋﻼت اﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﻗﺪ ﺗﻄﺮأ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ إﺟﺮاﺋﮭﺎ ﻋﻠﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺘﻰ ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﺘﻄﻮر اﻟﻜﺒﯿﺮ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺤﺎﺳﺒﺎت ووﺟﻮد ﺑﺮاﻣﺞ ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻋﻠﻰ درﺟﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺮوﻧﺔ وﺳﮭﻮﻟﺔ‬
‫اﻹﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﺟﻌﻞ ﻣﻦ إﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻓﻲ ﺣﻞ اﻟﻤﺸﺎﻛﻞ اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﯿﺔ واﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎدﯾﺔ واﻹﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯿﺔ‬
‫واﻟﻄﺒﯿﺔ واﻟﺒﯿﺌﯿﺔ اﻷﻣﺮ اﻟﺴﮭﻞ ﻟﺪرﺟﺔ ان ھﻨﺎك اﻟﻜﺜﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﺎء اﻟﺬﯾﻦ اﻋﺎدوا ﺻﯿﺎﻏﺔ اﻟﻜﺜﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻌﻠﻮم اﻟﺘﻄﺒﯿﻘﯿﺔ ﻣﻌﺘﻤﺪﯾﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﻀﻤﻨﺔ وراﺛﯿﺎ ‪ Inherited Information‬داﺧﻞ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات اﻟﻤﻼﺣﻈﺔ ﻣﻌﻤﻠﯿﺎ او ﻣﯿﺪاﻧﯿﺎ وﺑﺪون اﻹﻓﺘﺮاض ﻣﺴﺒﻘﺎ ﺑﺄي ﻓﺮﺿﯿﺎت ﻗﺪ ﻻﺗﻜﻮن ﺻﺤﯿﺤﺔ‬
‫ﻣﺜﻞ ان ﻧﻔﺘﺮض ان اوزان ﻓﺌﺮان اﻟﺘﺠﺎرب اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﮭﺎ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ طﺒﯿﻌﻲ وﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﺪم ﺗﺤﻘﻖ ھﺬه‬
‫اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ ﻧﻘﻮم ﺑﺈﺟﺮاء ﺗﺤﻮﯾﻞ ‪ Transformation‬ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪة ﻟﺠﻌﻠﮭﺎ طﺒﯿﻌﯿﺔ وﻟﻮ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ‬
‫ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺒﻲ وھﺬا ﯾﺸﺒﮫ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﺎ ﻣﺘﺠﺮ ﻟﺒﯿﻊ اﻷﺣﺬﯾﺔ ﻟﺪﯾﮫ اﺣﺬﯾﺔ ﺑﻤﻘﺎس واﺣﺪ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻓﺄي زﺑﻮن ﺗﻜﻮن ﻗﺪﻣﮫ‬
‫أﺻﻐﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺤﺬاء ﯾﻘﻮم اﻟﺒﺎﺋﻊ ﺑﺤﺸﻮ اﻟﺤﺬاء ﺑﻘﻄﻊ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﻄﻦ ﺣﺘﻰ ﯾﺼﺒﺢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻘﺎس اﻟﻘﺪم أﻣﺎ إذا‬
‫ﻛﺎﻧﺖ اﻟﻘﺪم اﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺤﺬاء ﻓﺈن اﻟﺒﺎﺋﻊ ﯾﺒﺘﺮ إﺻﺒﻌﺎ او إﺻﺒﻌﯿﻦ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺗﺪﺧﻞ اﻟﻘﺪم ﻓﻲ اﻟﺤﺬاء )ھﺬا‬
‫ﻣﺜﻞ إﻓﺘﺮاﺿﻲ(‪ .‬وﻟﮭﺬا ﻓﺈن اﻹﺗﺠﺎة اﻟﺤﺪﯾﺚ ھﻮ " دع اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪة ﺗﺘﻜﻠﻢ ﻋﻦ ﻧﻔﺴﮭﺎ " وھﻜﺬا‬
‫ﺗﻄﻮرت طﺮق إﻋﺎدة اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ ‪ Resampling Methods‬واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﻜﺜﻒ‪.‬‬
‫وﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة اﻵن ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺒﯿﺮ وﻣﻜﺜﻒ ﻓﻲ ﻛﺜﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻷﺑﺤﺎث اﻟﻌﻠﻤﯿﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺮﯾﺔ أو اﻟﺘﻄﺒﯿﻘﯿﺔ‬
‫وھﻲ ﻣﻦ أھﻢ اﻟﻤﻮاد اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺪرس أﻛﺎدﻣﯿﺎ ﺿﻤﻦ ﺑﺤﻮث اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺎت وﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻨﻈﻢ وﻣﻦ ﻣﻤﯿﺰاﺗﮭﺎ‪:‬‬
‫‪ (1‬اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺗﻤﻜﻦ ﻣﻦ دراﺳﺔ وإﺟﺮاء ﺗﺠﺎرب ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﻔﺎﻋﻼت اﻟﺪاﺧﻠﯿﺔ ﻷي ﻧﻈﺎم ﻣﻌﻘﺪ او‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺟﺰء ﻣﻦ ذﻟﻚ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪.‬‬
‫‪ (2‬اﻟﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎدﯾﺔ واﻟﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ واﻹﺟﺘﻤﺎﻋﯿﺔ واﻟﺒﯿﺌﯿﺔ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﺗﺤﺎﻛﻰ وﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ ھﺬا اﻟﺘﻌﺪﯾﻞ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺼﺮف اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‪.‬‬
‫‪ (3‬ﻣﻦ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺔ اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻧﺘﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻣﻔﯿﺪة ﺟﺪا ﻟﺘﺤﺴﯿﻦ إداء اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‬
‫اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﻲ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (4‬ﺑﺘﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﻣﺪﺧﻼت اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة وﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ اﻟﻤﺨﺮﺟﺎت اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺠﺔ ﯾﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﻤﮭﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫اﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﻲ وﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ اﻟﻄﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﻔﺎﻋﻞ ﺑﮭﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (5‬ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻟﺘﻌﻀﯿﺪ اﻟﻜﺜﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺒﺤﺜﯿﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺮﯾﺔ‪.‬‬
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‫‪ (6‬ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ ﺗﺼﺎﻣﯿﻢ وﺳﯿﺎﺳﺎت ﺟﺪﯾﺪة ﻟﻢ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﻣﻤﺎ ﯾﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻓﮭﻤﮭﺎ وﺗﻘﺒﻠﮭﺎ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺣﺪوﺛﮭﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (7‬وﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻟﻠﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺤﻠﻮل اﻟﺘﺤﻠﯿﻠﯿﺔ واﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺻﺤﺘﮭﺎ‪ .‬ﻷن ﻧﻤﺎذج اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺗﺠﺮى‬
‫‪ Run‬وﻻﺗﺤﻞ ﻓﺒﻮﺟﻮد ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﺤﺪدة ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼت وﺧﻮاص ﻣﺤﺪدة ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮذج ﯾﻘﺎم‬
‫ﺑﺈﺟﺮاء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة وﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ اﻟﻤﺨﺮﺟﺎت‪.‬‬
‫وﻟﻜﻦ ھﻨﺎك ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﻌﯿﻮب او ﺑﺎﻻﺣﺮى اﻟﺼﻌﻮﺑﺎت ﻣﺜﻞ‪:‬‬

‫‪ (1‬ﺑﻨﺎء ﻧﻤﻮذج ﯾﺤﺘﺎج اﻟﻰ ﺧﺒﺮة وﺗﺪرﯾﺐ ﺧﺎص ﺑﻞ ان اﻟﺒﻌﺾ ﯾﻘﻮل ان ﺑﻨﺎء ﻧﻤﻮذج ھﻮ ﻓﻦ إذ‬
‫ﻟﯿﺲ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ﯾﺘﻌﻠﻢ ﻛﺘﺎﺑﺔ اﻟﺨﻂ ﯾﺼﺒﺢ ﺧﻄﺎط‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ان ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ إﻋﻄﺎء ﻧﻔﺲ اﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ‬
‫ﻟﺸﺨﺼﯿﻦ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﯿﻦ ﻗﺪ ﯾﺒﻨﻲ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﮭﻤﺎ ﻧﻤﻮذج ﻟﺬﻟﻚ وﺗﻜﻮن ھﻨﺎك اﺷﯿﺎء ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻛﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻨﻤﻮذﺟﯿﻦ اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺠﯿﻦ وﻟﻜﻦ اﻹﺧﺘﻼﻓﺎت ﻛﺒﯿﺮة وﻟﻦ ﯾﻜﻮن اﻟﻨﻤﻮذﺟﯿﻦ ﻣﻨﻄﺒﻘﯿﻦ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (2‬ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة او ﻣﺨﺮﺟﺎﺗﮭﺎ ﻗﺪ ﯾﻜﻮن ﻣﻦ اﻟﺼﻌﺐ ﺗﻔﺴﯿﺮھﺎ وﺧﺎﺻﺔ إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ اﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼت‬
‫ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﻣﻤﺎ ﯾﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻨﺔ ﻣﺨﺮﺟﺎت ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﯾﻜﻮن ﻣﻦ اﻟﺼﻌﺐ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻓﯿﻤﺎ إذا‬
‫ﻛﺎﻧﺖ اﻹﺧﺘﻼﻓﺎت اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺠﺔ ھﻰ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ام ﻣﻦ ﺗﻔﺎﻋﻞ ﺣﻘﯿﻘﻲ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات‪.‬‬
‫‪ (3‬اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ واﻟﺘﺤﻠﯿﻞ وﺟﻤﻊ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﻟﻐﺮض اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﯾﺴﺘﻐﺮق وﻗﺘﺎ طﻮﯾﻞ ﺟﺪا وﯾﻜﻮن ﻣﻜﻠﻒ‬
‫اﺣﯿﺎﻧﺎ ﻛﻤﺎ ان إﺧﺘﺼﺎر او ﻗﻄﻊ ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﻤﺼﺎدر ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺔ ﺑﻨﺎء اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﯾﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻨﮭﺎ ﻧﻤﻮذج‬
‫ﻧﺎﻗﺺ ﻻﯾﻨﻄﺒﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﻲ وﺗﺼﺒﺢ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺠﮫ ﻋﺪﯾﻤﺔ اﻟﻔﺎﺋﺪة‪.‬‬
‫وﻟﻜﻦ ﺣﺎﻟﯿﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﺒﺮاﻣﺞ اﻟﺬﻛﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺤﻮى ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻤﺎذج ﺟﺎھﺰة ﻟﻜﺜﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻷﻧﻈﻤﺔ اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﯿﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺸﺎﺋﻌﺔ وھﺬه اﻟﺒﺮاﻣﺞ ﺗﻐﺬى ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼت ﻓﻘﻂ ﻓﺘﻌﻄﻲ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺟﯿﺪة‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ان ھﺬه اﻟﺒﺮاﻣﺞ ﺗﺤﻮي ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺑﺮاﻣﺞ ﻣﺴﺎﻋﺪة ﻟﺘﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼت واﻟﻤﺨﺮﺟﺎت ﺗﻘﻮم ﺑﻜﻞ اﻟﻌﻤﻞ اﻟﺸﺎق اﻟﺬي ﺗﻄﻠﺒﮫ ھﺬه اﻷﻧﺸﻄﺔ‬
‫وﺗﻌﻄﻲ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺟﯿﺪة وﺷﺎﻣﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛﺎ ان ھﺬه اﻟﺒﺮاﻣﺞ ﺗﻘﻮم ﺑﺈﺟﺮاء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻟﻠﻨﻤﺎذج اﻟﻤﻌﻘﺪة ﻓﻲ اوﻗﺎت‬
‫ﻗﯿﺎﺳﯿﺔ ﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﺑﺒﺮاﻣﺞ طﻮرت ﻗﺒﻞ ﻋﻘﺪ او ﻋﻘﺪﯾﻦ‪.‬‬
‫ﺧﻄﻮات إﻋﺪاد اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪:‬‬

‫ھﻨﺎك ﺧﻄﻮات ﻋﺮﯾﻀﺔ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ اﻹھﺘﺪاء ﺑﮭﺎ ﻹﻋﺪاد دراﺳﺔ ﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة وﺑﻨﺎء ﻧﻤﻮذج ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﺼﻔﮭﺎ ﺑﻤﺨﻄﻂ اﻹﻧﺴﯿﺎب اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
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Problem formulation
Setting of objectives and overall

project plan
Model conceptualization Data collection
Model translation
No
Verified?
Yes
No No
Validated?
Yes
Experimental design
Production runs and analysis
Yes Yes
More runs?
No
Documentation and
reporting Implementation
17
‫وﺳﻮف ﻧﺸﺮح ﻛﻞ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺗﻜﻮﯾﻦ او ﺗﺸﻜﯿﻞ اﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ‪: Problem formulation‬‬
‫وھﺬه اﻟﺨﻄﻮة ھﻲ اھﻢ اﻟﺨﻄﻮات ﻓﻲ ﺑﻨﺎء ﻧﻤﻮذج ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة وﺗﺘﻢ ﺑﻌﺮض واﺿﺢ وﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ او‬
‫اﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﻤﺮاد دراﺳﺘﮫ وﺗﺘﻢ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻌﺎون ﻣﻊ واﺿﻌﻲ اﻟﻘﺮارات واﻟﺬﯾﻦ ﺗﮭﻤﮭﻢ ﺣﻞ ھﺬه اﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺛﻢ‬
‫وﺿﻌﮭﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻧﻤﻮذج رﯾﺎﺿﻲ اوﻟﻲ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﻟﻠﺘﻄﻮﯾﺮ ﻻﺣﻘﺎ‪.‬‬
‫وﺿﻊ اﻷھﺪاف واﻟﺨﻄﺔ اﻟﺸﺎﻣﻠﺔ ‪: Setting of objectives and overall plan‬‬
‫اﻷھﺪاف ﺗﺘﻜﻮن ﻣﻦ اﻷﺳﺌﻠﺔ اﻟﻤﺮاد اﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ ﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة وھﻨﺎ ﯾﺠﺐ اﻷﺧﺬ ﻓﻲ اﻹﻋﺘﺒﺎر‬
‫ﻓﯿﻤﺎ إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ھﻲ اﻟﻄﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﻟﺤﻞ ھﺬه اﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ آﺧﺬﯾﻦ ﻓﻲ اﻹﻋﺘﺒﺎر اﻷھﺪاف‬
‫اﻟﻤﺮﺟﻮه وﺗﻜﻮﯾﻦ اﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺨﻄﻮة اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ وﻋﻠﻰ ﺿﻮء ذﻟﻚ إذا ﺗﻘﺮر أن اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ھﻲ‬
‫اﻟﻄﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﻞ ﻓﯿﺠﺐ وﺿﻊ اﻟﺨﻄﺔ اﻟﺸﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺑﺤﯿﺚ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ دراﺳﺔ اﻟﺒﺪاﺋﻞ اﻟﻤﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم‬
‫واﻟﻤﻮارد اﻟﻤﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻓﺮﯾﻖ ﻋﻤﻞ وﻣﻮاد وﻣﺼﺎدر ﻣﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﺦ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻔﮭﻢ وﺑﻨﺎء اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ‪: Model conceptualization and Building‬‬
‫ﺑﻨﺎء ﻧﻤﻮذج ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم ﯾﻌﺘﺒﺮ ﻓﻨﺎ ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﻰ اﻧﮫ ﻋﻠﻢ وذﻟﻚ ﻷﻧﺔ ﻟﯿﺲ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻤﻜﻦ اﻋﻄﺎء ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ‬
‫اﻟﺘﻌﻠﯿﻤﺎت واﻟﺘﻲ ﺳﺘﻘﻮد ﺑﺎﻟﻀﺮورة اﻟﻰ ﺑﻨﺎء ﻧﻤﻮذج ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ وﻟﻜﻦ ھﻨﺎك ﺧﻄﻮط رﺋﯿﺴﯿﺔ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ‬
‫اﻹھﺘﺪاء ﺑﮭﺎ‪ .‬إن ﻓﻦ اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ ﯾ ّ‬
‫ُﻌﺰز ﺑﺎﻟﻤﻘﺪرة ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺠﺮﯾﺪ اﻟﺨﻮاص اﻷﺳﺎﺳﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻹﺧﺘﯿﺎر‬
‫وﺗﻄﻮﯾﺮ اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺎت اﻷﺳﺎﺳﯿﺔ واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻤﯿﺰ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم وﻣﻦ ﺛﻢ إﻏﻨﺎء وزﯾﺎدة ﺗﻔﺎﺻﯿﻞ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﺣﺘﻰ‬
‫ﻧﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺐ ﺟﯿﺪ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم وﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻣﻘﺒﻮﻟﺔ وﻗﺎﺑﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻄﺒﯿﻖ‪ ،‬وﻟﮭﺬا ﻓﻤﻦ اﻟﻀﺮوري اﻟﺒﺪء ﺑﻨﻤﻮذج‬
‫ﺑﺴﯿﻂ ﺛﻢ زﯾﺎدة اﻟﺘﻔﺎﺻﯿﻞ اﻟﻤﮭﻤﺔ ﺣﺴﺐ اﻟﻀﺮورة ھﺘﻰ ﻧﺼﻞ إﻟﻰ درﺟﺔ اﻟﺘﻌﻘﯿﺪ اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ واﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫ﻻﯾﺠﺐ ان ﺗﺰﯾﺪ ﻋﻦ اﻟﮭﺪف اﻟﻤﺮاد ﻣﻊ اﻷﺧﺬ ﻓﻲ اﻹﻋﺘﺒﺎر اﻧﮫ ﻟﯿﺲ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻀﺮوري ان ﯾﻜﻮن‬
‫اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﺻﻮرة طﺒﻖ اﻷﺻﻞ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﻲ ﺑﻞ ان روح اﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﻲ ھﻲ اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﯾﻨﺼﺢ‬
‫ﺑﺄن ﯾﻜﻮن اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻔﯿﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﻣﺸﺎرﻛﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺟﻤﯿﻊ ھﺬه اﻟﻤﺮاﺣﻞ وذﻟﻚ ﻷﺧﺬ وﺟﮭﺔ ﻧﻈﺮة ﻓﻲ‬
‫اﻹﻋﺘﺒﺎر وﻣﺴﺎﻋﺪﺗﮫ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﮭﻢ وإﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‪.‬‬
‫ﺟﻤﻊ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ‪: Data collection‬‬
‫ھﻨﺎك ﺗﻔﺎﻋﻞ ﺣﻘﯿﻘﻲ ﺑﯿﻦ ﺑﻨﺎء اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج وﺟﻤﻊ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻀﺮورﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺪﺧﻼت ﻓﺒﻘﺪر دﻗﺔ وﺻﺤﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻤﺪﺧﻠﺔ ﯾﺘﻘﺮر ﺻﺤﺔ ودﻗﺔ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ اﻟﻤﺨﺮﺟﺎت واﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻛﻤﺎ ﯾﺠﺐ ﺟﻤﻊ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﺪﺧﻼت أﺛﻨﺎء وﺿﻊ اﻟﺨﻄﻮط اﻟﺮﺋﯿﺴﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮذج وزﯾﺎدﺗﮭﺎ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺗﻄﻮر ﺗﻌﻘﯿﺪ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﻛﻤﺎ ان‬
‫اﻷھﺪاف اﻟﻤﻮﺿﻮﻋﺔ ﺗﺤﺪد ﻧﻮع اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﺟﻤﻌﮭﺎ ﻓﻤﺜﻼ ﻋﻨﺪ دراﺳﺘﻨﺎ ﻟﻨﻈﺎم طﺎﺑﻮر ﻟﻐﺮض‬
‫ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ طﻮل طﺎﺑﻮر اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر وﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻣﻦ اھﻢ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﺟﻤﻌﮭﺎ أزﻣﻨﺔ‬
‫ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل ﻟﻠﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﻤﻠﺘﺤﻘﯿﻦ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ﻹﯾﺠﺎد ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ زﻣﻦ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل وأزﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ‬
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‫ﻹﯾﺠﺎد ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ زﻣﻦ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﮭﻢ‪ ،‬وﻣﻦ اﻟﻀﺮوري ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻌﺎت اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺨﯿﺔ )اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ( اﯾﻀﺎ‬
‫ﻟﺘﺼﺪﯾﻖ ‪ Validate‬ﻧﻤﻮذج اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﺮﺟﻤﺔ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ‪: Model translation‬‬
‫ﺑﻤﺎ ان ﻣﻌﻈﻢ اﻷﻧﻈﻤﺔ اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﯿﺔ ﺗﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻨﮭﺎ ﻧﻤﺎذج ﺗﺤﺘﺎج إﻟﻰ ﺗﺨﺰﯾﻦ ﻛﻢ ھﺎﺋﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت وإﻟﻰ‬
‫ﻣﻘﺪرة ﺣﺎﺳﻮﺑﯿﺔ ﻗﻮﯾﺔ ﻓﻠﮭﺬا ﯾﺠﺐ ﺗﺮﺟﻤﺔ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج إﻟﻰ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻣﻔﮭﻮم ﻣﻦ اﻟﺤﺎﺳﺐ إﻣﺎ ﺑﻜﺘﺎﺑﺔ اﻟﺒﺮاﻣﺞ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ أو إﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﺣﺰﻣﺔ ﺑﺮاﻣﺞ ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻣﺜﻞ ‪ GPSS/PC‬او ‪ SIMAN‬او ‪ ARENA‬او‬
‫‪ SIMPROCESS‬وﺑﺮاﻣﺞ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة اﻟﻤﺬﻛﻮرة أﻛﺜﺮ ﻗﻮة وﻣﺮوﻧﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺒﺮاﻣﺞ اﻟﻤﻜﺘﻮﺑﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ُﻣﺘﺤﻘﻖّ ؟ ?‪: Verified‬‬
‫اﻟﺘﺤﻘﻖ ھﻨﺎ ﺧﺎص ﺑﻔﺤﺺ إذا ﻣﺎ ﻛﺎن اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ اﻟﻤﺘﺮﺟﻢ ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮذج ﯾﻘﻮم ﻓﻌﻼ ﺑﺄﻹداء اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب‬
‫واﻟﺼﺤﯿﺢ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻔﻲ اﻟﻨﻤﺎذج اﻟﻤﻌﻘﺪة ﻣﻦ اﻟﺼﻌﺐ ﺑﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺤﯿﻞ ﺗﺮﺟﻤﺔ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﺑﺸﻜﻠﮫ اﻟﻜﺎﻣﻞ‬
‫ﺑﻨﺠﺎح ﺑﻞ ﯾﺘﻄﻠﺐ اﻷﻣﺮ اﻟﻜﺜﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﺼﺤﯿﺢ واﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺐ ﺣﺘﻰ ﻧﻨﺘﮭﻲ إﻟﻰ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺟﯿﺪ وﻣﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺻﻼﺣﯿﺘﮫ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣُﺼﺪّق؟ ?‪: Validated‬‬
‫اﻟﺘﺼﺪﯾﻖ ﯾﻜﻮن ﺑﺘﺤﺪﯾﺪ ﻓﯿﻤﺎ إذا ﻛﺎن اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﯾﻤﺜﻞ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ دﻗﯿﻖ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﻲ وﺗﺘﻢ ﺑﻤﻌﺎﯾﺮة اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‬
‫وذﻟﻚ ﺑﻤﻘﺎرﻧﺘﮫ ﻣﻊ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﻲ وﺗﻌﺪﯾﻠﺔ إذا ﻟﺰم اﻷﻣﺮ وھﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺔ ﺗﻜﺮارﯾﺔ ﺗﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺗﻜﻮن‬
‫اﻹﺧﺘﻼﻓﺎت ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج واﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﻲ ﻣﮭﻤﻠﺔ أو ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﮭﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ان ھﺬه اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺔ ﺗﻌﻄﻲ ﺑﻌﺪ ﻧﻈﺮ‬
‫وﻓﮭﻢ اﻋﻤﻖ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﻲ واﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرب ‪: Experimental design‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ھﺬه اﻟﺨﻄﻮة ﻧﺤﺪد اﻟﺒﺪاﺋﻞ اﻟﻤﺮاد ﻓﺤﺼﮭﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‪ ،‬وﻏﺎﻟﺒﺎ ﻣﺎ ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‬
‫ﻹﺟﺮاء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﺎﻟﺒﺪاﺋﻞ اﻻﺧﺮى‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﯾﻘﺮر ﻓﻲ ھﺬه اﻟﺨﻄﻮة طﻮل ﻓﺘﺮة اﻟﺒﺪء ‪Initialization‬‬
‫‪ period‬وطﻮل إﺟﺮاﺋﺎت ‪ Simulation runs‬اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة وﻋﺪد اﻟﺘﻜﺮارات ﻟﻜﻞ إﺟﺮاء‪.‬‬

‫اﻹﺟﺮاﺋﺎت اﻹﻧﺘﺎﺟﯿﺔ واﻟﺘﺤﻠﯿﻞ ‪: Production runs and anaysis‬‬
‫وﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ھﺬه اﻟﺨﻄﻮة ﻟﺘﻘﺪﯾﺮ ﻣﻘﺎﯾﯿﺲ اﻷداء ‪ Performance Measures‬ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﻰ‪.‬‬
‫ھﻞ ﻧﻘﻮم ﺑﺈﺟﺮاﺋﺎت اﻛﺜﺮ؟ ?‪: More runs‬‬
‫إﻋﺘﻤﺎدا ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻹﺟﺮاﺋﺎت اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻧﻘﺮر ﻓﯿﻤﺎ إذا ﻛﺎن ھﻨﺎك ﺣﺎﺟﺔ ﻹﺟﺮاﺋﺎت إﺿﺎﻓﯿﺔ وﻣﺎھﻲ‬
‫اﻟﺒﺪاﺋﻞ اﻟﻤﻤﻜﻦ إﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﮫ ﻓﻲ ھﺬه اﻹﺟﺮاﺋﺎت‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﺘﻮﺛﯿﻖ واﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ ‪: Documentation and reporting‬‬
‫وھﺬه ﺧﻄﻮة ﻣﮭﻤﺔ ﺟﺪا ﻧﻘﻮم ﻓﯿﮭﺎ ﺑﺘﻮﺛﯿﻖ اﻟﺒﺮاﻣﺞ اﻟﺤﺎﺳﻮﺑﯿﺔ وﺗﻮﺛﯿﻖ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﻧﻔﺴﮫ ﺣﺘﻰ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ‬
‫إﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﮭﺎ ﻣﻦ اي ﺑﺎﺣﺚ ﻻﺣﻘﺎ ﻛﻤﺎ اﻧﮭﺎ ﻣﻔﯿﺪة ﺟﺪا ﻟﻤﻦ وﺿﻊ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج اﺻﻼ ﻟﻜﻲ ﯾﺘﺬﻛﺮ ﺗﻔﺎﺻﻞ‬
‫‪19‬‬
‫ﻋﻤﻠﮫ ﺑﻌﺪ زﻣﻦ‪ .‬اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ ھﻮ اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ اﻟﻨﮭﺎﺋﻲ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻞ ﻛﻠﮫ وھﻮ اﻟﺬي ﯾﻘﺪم إﻟﻰ ﺻﺎﻧﻊ اﻟﻘﺮار وﯾﺘﻜﻮن ﻣﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﻤﺘﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻤﯿﻊ اﻟﺨﻄﻮات اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ وﯾﺠﺐ ان ﯾﺤﻮي ﻣﻠﺨﺺ ‪ Summary‬وﻧﺘﯿﺠﺔ‬
‫‪ Conclusion‬واﺿﺤﺘﯿﻦ ﻟﺼﺎﻧﻊ اﻟﻘﺮار‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﺘﻄﺒﯿﻖ ‪: Implementation‬‬
‫وﻧﺠﺎح ھﺬه اﻟﺨﻄﻮة ﯾﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﺠﺎح اﻟﺨﻄﻮات اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ وﻣﺪى اﻹﻟﺘﺰام ﺑﺘﻄﺒﯿﻘﮭﺎ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺟﯿﺪ‪ .‬وﯾﺠﺐ‬
‫ﻣﺮاﻗﺒﺔ وﻣﺮاﺟﻌﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻟﻔﺘﺮة ﻟﻜﻲ ﻧﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺪى ﻧﺠﺎح اﻟﺘﻮﺻﯿﺎت اﻟﻨﮭﺎﺋﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫أﻧﻈﺮ ﻣﺮﺟﻊ )‪(4‬‬
‫‪20‬‬
‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺤﻜﺎة اﻟﯿﺪوﯾﺔ ﻟﺒﻌﺾ اﻷﻣﺜﻠﺔ‪Hand Simulation Examples :‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة اﻟﯿﺪوﯾﺔ ﺗﻌﻄﻲ ﺑﻌﺪ ﻧﻈﺮ ﻋﻤﯿﻖ ﻓﻲ ﺗﻔﺎﺻﯿﻞ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة وﯾﺠﺐ اﻻﺗﻐﻔﻞ إطﻼﻗﺎ ﻷﻧﮭﺎ ﺑﻤﺜﺎﺑﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺘﮭﯿﺌﺔ واﻹﻋﺪاد ﻛﻤﺎ ﯾﮭﯿﺊ اﻟﺠﻨﺪي ﻟﻠﻤﻌﺮﻛﺔ او اﻟﻼﻋﺐ ﻟﻠﻤﺒﺎراة‪.‬‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﻘﻮم ﺑﺈﺟﺮاء ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﯾﺪوﯾﺔ ﻟﻌﺪة أﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻟﻜﻲ ﻧﺴﺘﻌﺮض ﻣﺪى ﻗﻮة اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻛﺄداة ﻟﺤﻞ اﻟﻤﺸﺎﻛﻞ‬
‫وﻟﺼﻨﻊ اﻟﻘﺮارات‪:‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪ : 1‬طﺎﺑﻮر اﻟﺼﻒ اﻟﻮاﺣﺪ ‪Single Channel Queue‬‬
‫ﻣﺤﻞ ﺑﻘﺎﻟﺔ ﺻﻐﯿﺮ ﻟﮫ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺐ واﺣﺪ‪ .‬ﯾﺼﻞ اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ إﻟﻰ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ اﻟﺪﻓﻊ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﯾﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﯿﻨﮭﻤﺎ‬
‫أزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ وﺻﻮل ‪ Interarrival times‬ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 1‬و ‪ 8‬دﻗﺎﺋﻖ وھﺬه اﻷزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ وﺻﻮل ﻟﮭﺎ ﻧﻔﺲ‬
‫اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺟﺪول ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ أزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل‪:‬‬
‫‪Time between‬‬
‫‪Arrivals‬‬ ‫‪Cumulative‬‬ ‫‪Random Numbers‬‬
‫)‪(Minutes‬‬ ‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪Assignment‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.125‬‬ ‫‪0.125‬‬ ‫‪0.0000-0.1250‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.125‬‬ ‫‪0.250‬‬ ‫‪0.1251-0.2500‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.125‬‬ ‫‪0.375‬‬ ‫‪0.2501-0.3750‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.125‬‬ ‫‪0.500‬‬ ‫‪0.3751-0.5000‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0.125‬‬ ‫‪0.625‬‬ ‫‪0.5001-0.6250‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪0.125‬‬ ‫‪0.750‬‬ ‫‪0.6251-0.7500‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪0.125‬‬ ‫‪0.875‬‬ ‫‪0.7501-0.8750‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪0.125‬‬ ‫‪1.000‬‬ ‫‪0.8751-1.0000‬‬
‫أزﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ‪ Sevice times‬ﺗﺘﺮاوح ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 1‬و ‪ 6‬دﻗﺎﺋﻖ ﺑﺈﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻت ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺟﺪول ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ أزﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪Service Time‬‬ ‫‪Cumulative‬‬ ‫‪Random Numbers‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬ ‫‪0.000-0.100‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬ ‫‪0.30‬‬ ‫‪0.101-0.300‬‬
‫‪21‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.30‬‬ ‫‪0.60‬‬ ‫‪0.301-0.600‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.85‬‬ ‫‪0.601-0.850‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬ ‫‪0.95‬‬ ‫‪0.851-0.950‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬ ‫‪0.951-1.000‬‬
‫اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻮدﯾﻦ اﻷﺧﯿﺮﯾﻦ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺪاول اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺳﻮف ﻧﻔﺴﺮھﺎ ﻻﺣﻘﺎ‪ .‬اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﺑﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‬
‫وﺻﻮل وﺧﺪﻣﺔ ‪ 20‬زﺑﻮﻧﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻹﺟﺮاء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﯾﺪوﯾﺎ ﻧﺤﺘﺎج إﻟﻰ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ أزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ وﺻﻮل وأزﻣﻨﺔ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ زﺑﻮن وذﻟﻚ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻌﺎﺗﮭﺎ اﻟﻤﻌﻄﺎة ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺪوﻟﯿﻦ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﯿﻦ‪ .‬ﻟﻜﻲ ﻧﻔﻌﻞ ذﻟﻚ ﻧﺴﺘﻔﯿﺪ ﻣﻦ طﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﺘﺤﻮﯾﻞ‬
‫اﻟﻌﻜﺴﻲ ‪ Inverse Transform Technique‬واﻟﺘﻲ ﺳﺘﺸﺮح ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻔﺼﯿﻞ ﻓﻲ ﺑﺎب ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات‬
‫اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻧﻜﻮن اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺮاﻛﻤﻲ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﻤﻮد اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ﻣﻦ ﻛﻞ ﺟﺪول‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺮاﻛﻤﻲ ﻧﻮﺟﺪ ﻓﺘﺮات اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﯾﺄﺧﺬھﺎ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ‬
‫اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﻧﻮﻟﺪ رﻗﻢ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام آﻟﺔ ﺣﺎﺳﺒﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -4‬ﻧﻨﻈﺮ إﻟﻰ اﻟﻔﺘﺮة اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﻘﻊ ﻓﯿﮭﺎ اﻟﺮﻗﻢ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﯿﻦ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻮد اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺪول‪ ،‬اﻟﺮﻗﻢ‬
‫اﻟﺬي ﯾﻘﻊ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﻤﻮد اﻷول اﻟﺘﺎﺑﻊ ﻟﮭﺬه اﻟﻔﺘﺮة ھﻮ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام آﻟﺔ ﺣﺎﺳﺒﺔ وﺟﺪﻧﺎ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺟﺪول ازﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل ﻟﻠﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ اﻟـ ‪20‬‬
‫‪Random Number‬‬ ‫‪Arrivals‬‬
‫‪Customer‬‬ ‫‪Generated‬‬ ‫)‪(Minutes‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.8879‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.4065‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.0799‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.8029‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0.9915‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪0.0381‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪0.7456‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪0.5014‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪0.1786‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪22‬‬
‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪0.2481‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪11‬‬ ‫‪0.4027‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪0.2708‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪13‬‬ ‫‪0.9065‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬
‫‪14‬‬ ‫‪0.6057‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪0.7184‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪0.4033‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪17‬‬ ‫‪0.8510‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬
‫‪18‬‬ ‫‪0.3966‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪19‬‬ ‫‪0.6224‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪0.7386‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫وﺑﻨﻔﺲ اﻟﻄﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﻧﻜﻮن ﺟﺪول ﻷوﻗﺎت اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ زﺑﻮن ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫ﺟﺪول ازﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ اﻟـ ‪20‬‬
‫‪Random Number‬‬ ‫‪Sevice Times‬‬
‫‪Customer‬‬ ‫‪Generated‬‬ ‫)‪(Minutes‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.869‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.878‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.623‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.251‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0.074‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪0.952‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪0.440‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪0.496‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪0.878‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪0.665‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪11‬‬ ‫‪0.954‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪0.627‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪13‬‬ ‫‪0.087‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪14‬‬ ‫‪0.628‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪0.354‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪0.366‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪17‬‬ ‫‪0.763‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪23‬‬
‫‪18‬‬ ‫‪0.598‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪19‬‬ ‫‪0.902‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪0.302‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫اﻵن ﻧﻜﻮن ﺟﺪول ﯾﺘﺘﺒﻊ اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ أﺛﻨﺎء ﻣﺮورھﻢ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪ ،‬ﻣﻊ ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ أن اﻟﺰﺑﻮن اﻷول ﻟﮫ زﻣﻦ ﻣﺎ‬
‫ﺑﯿﻦ وﺻﻮل ﻣﻦ ﺳﺎﻋﺔ اﻟﺼﻔﺮ ﻟﻠﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﯾﺴﺤﺐ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺠﺪول ﻛﻤﺎ ان زﻣﻦ ﻓﺮاغ اﻟﺨﺎدم ﻣﻦ ﺳﺎﻋﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺼﻔﺮ ﺣﺘﻰ وﺻﻮل اﻟﺰﺑﻮن اﻷول ﯾﺤﺴﺐ ﺻﻔﺮا‪:‬‬
‫ﺟﺪول ﻣﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪:‬‬
‫‪Custom‬‬ ‫‪Interarri‬‬ ‫‪Arrival‬‬ ‫‪Servi‬‬ ‫‪Start‬‬ ‫‪of‬‬ ‫‪End of‬‬ ‫‪Time‬‬ ‫‪Time in‬‬ ‫‪Idle time‬‬
‫‪er‬‬ ‫‪val‬‬ ‫‪Time‬‬ ‫‪ce‬‬ ‫‪service‬‬ ‫‪service‬‬ ‫‪in‬‬ ‫‪system‬‬ ‫‪of server‬‬
‫‪Number‬‬ ‫‪Time‬‬ ‫‪Time‬‬ ‫‪queue‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪13‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪13‬‬ ‫‪18‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪13‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪18‬‬ ‫‪22‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪22‬‬ ‫‪24‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪28‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪28‬‬ ‫‪29‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪29‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪29‬‬ ‫‪34‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪35‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪35‬‬ ‫‪38‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪40‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪40‬‬ ‫‪43‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪42‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪43‬‬ ‫‪48‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪44‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪48‬‬ ‫‪52‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪11‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪48‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪52‬‬ ‫‪57‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪52‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪57‬‬ ‫‪61‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪13‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪60‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪61‬‬ ‫‪62‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪14‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪65‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪65‬‬ ‫‪69‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪71‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪71‬‬ ‫‪74‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪75‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪75‬‬ ‫‪78‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪17‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪82‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪82‬‬ ‫‪86‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪18‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪86‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪86‬‬ ‫‪89‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪19‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪91‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪91‬‬ ‫‪96‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪97‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪97‬‬ ‫‪99‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪Totals‬‬ ‫‪96‬‬ ‫‪71‬‬ ‫‪23‬‬ ‫‪94‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬
‫‪24‬‬
‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻧﻮﺟﺪ ﻣﻘﺎﯾﯿﺲ اﻷداء ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر=زﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر‪/‬ﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ = ‪ 1.15= 23/20‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‬
‫‪ -2‬إﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻓﻲ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر =ﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﺬﯾﻦ اﻧﺘﻈﺮوا‪ /‬ﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ=‪0.4= 8/20‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﺨﺎدم=‪ -1‬زﻣﻦ اﻟﻔﺮاغ‪/‬اﻟﺰﻣﻦ اﻟﻜﻠﻲ =‪ 0.78= 20/91 -1‬أي ‪%78‬‬
‫‪ -4‬ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ= ﻣﺠﻤﻮع ازﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ‪/‬ﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ=‪ 3.55=71/20‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‬
‫‪ -5‬ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ازﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل=ﻣﺠﻤﻮع ازﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل‪ /‬ﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ=‪4.8= 96/20‬‬
‫دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‬
‫‪ -6‬ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻟﻤﻦ اﻧﺘﻈﺮوا= زﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر‪ /‬ﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﺬﯾﻦ اﻧﺘﻈﺮوا=‪23/8‬‬
‫=‪ 2.875‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‬
‫‪ -7‬ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻜﻮث ﺑﺎﻟﻨﻈﺎم= زﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻜﻮث ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪/‬ﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ=‪ 4.7= 94/20‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪ :2‬أﺣﻤﺪ وﺑﻜﺮ ﻟﻠﺨﺪﻣﺔ اﻟﺴﺮﯾﻌﺔ‪:‬‬

‫اﻟﻐﺮض ﻣﻦ ھﺬا اﻟﻤﺜﺎل ھﻮ ﻋﺮض طﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻋﻨﺪ وﺟﻮد اﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺴﺎر او ﺻﻒ طﺎﺑﻮر‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻄﻌﻢ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ ﺳﺮﯾﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﯿﺎرات ﯾﻘﻮم ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻠﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﻄﻠﺒﺎت ﺧﺎدﻣﯿﻦ ﻷﺧﺬ وﺗﻮﺻﯿﻞ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻟﻠﺴﯿﺎرات‬
‫اﻟﻮاﺻﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﻄﻌﻢ‪ .‬ﺗﺼﻞ اﻟﺴﯿﺎرات إﻟﻰ اﻟﻤﻄﻌﻢ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ازﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪Arrivals‬‬ ‫‪Cumulative‬‬ ‫‪Random Numbers‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.000-0.250‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.40‬‬ ‫‪0.65‬‬ ‫‪0.251-0.650‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬ ‫‪0.85‬‬ ‫‪0.651-0.850‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬ ‫‪0.851-1.000‬‬
‫اﻟﺨﺎدﻣﯿﻦ ﯾﺪﻋﻰ اﺣﺪھﻢ اﺣﻤﺪ واﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﺑﻜﺮ‪ ،‬اﺣﻤﺪ اﻛﺜﺮ ﻗﺪرة وﺧﺒﺮة ﻣﻦ ﺑﻜﺮ )وﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﯾﻔﻀﻠﺔ اﻏﻠﺐ‬
‫اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ( ﻛﻤﺎ اﻧﮫ اﺳﺮع ﻓﻲ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‪ ،‬ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ازﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ اﺣﻤﺪ وﺑﻜﺮ ھﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫اﻟﺘﻮاﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺟﺪول ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ أزﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻷﺣﻤﺪ‪:‬‬
‫‪Service Time‬‬ ‫‪Cumulative‬‬ ‫‪Random Numbers‬‬
‫‪25‬‬
2 0.30 0.30 0.000-0.300
3 0.28 0.58 0.301-0.580
4 0.25 0.83 0.581-0.830
5 0.17 1.00 0.831-1.000
:‫ﺟﺪول ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ أزﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﺒﻜﺮ‬

Service Time Cumulative Random Numbers
(Minutes) Probability Probability Assignment
3 0.35 0.35 0.000-0.350
4 0.25 0.60 0.351-0.600
5 0.20 0.80 0.601-0.800
6 0.20 1.00 0.801-1.000
.‫اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻟﻤﻌﺮﻓﺔ أداﺋﮫ‬

‫اﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﯾﺒﯿﻦ ﻣﺮاﺣﻞ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‬
Ahmad Bakur
_______________________________________________
Cus Random Time Clock Random Time Time Time Time Time
Tomer Number between Time of Number Sevice Service Service Sevice Sevice Service in
No. for Arrivals Arrival Arrival for Service Start Time Ends Start Time Ends Queue
1 0.99284 4 4 0.398244 4 3 7 - - - 0
2 0.463490 2 6 0.485853 - - - 6 4 10 0
3 0.654933 3 9 0.018479 9 2 11 - - - 0
4 0.008010 1 10 0.375450 - - - 10 4 14 0
5 0.017539 1 11 0.380226 11 3 14 - - - 0
6 0.027118 1 12 0.071695 14 2 16 - - - 2
7 0.294307 2 14 0.794733 - - - 14 5 19 0
8 0.703278 3 17 0.048615 17 2 19 - - - 0
9 0.305171 2 19 0.744830 19 4 23 - - - 0
10 0.029153 1 20 0.082780 - - - 20 3 23 0
11 0.294875 2 22 0.913267 23 5 28 - - - 1
12 0.846545 3 25 0.625406 - - - 25 5 30 0
13 0.991276 4 29 0.987133 29 5 34 - - - 0
14 0.684252 3 32 0.641578 - - - 32 5 37 0
15 0.642370 2 34 0.416842 34 3 37 - - - 0
16 0.369203 2 36 0.916370 37 5 42 - - - 1
17 0.222240 1 37 0.712437 - - - 37 5 42 0
18 0.437991 2 39 0.770969 42 4 46 - - - 3
19 0.119146 1 40 0.061159 - - - 42 3 45 2
20 0.662990 3 43 0.934648 - - - 45 6 51 2
21 0.288916 2 45 0.923251 46 5 51 - - - 1
26
‫‪22‬‬ ‫‪0.903758‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪49‬‬ ‫‪0.355554‬‬ ‫‪51‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪54‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪23‬‬ ‫‪0.948593‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪53‬‬ ‫‪0.682907‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪53‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪58‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪24‬‬ ‫‪0.375286‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪55‬‬ ‫‪0.379748‬‬ ‫‪55‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪58‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪25‬‬ ‫‪0.273955‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪57‬‬ ‫‪0.273077‬‬ ‫‪58‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪60‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪26‬‬ ‫‪0.664870‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪60‬‬ ‫‪0.358811‬‬ ‫‪60‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪63‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪27‬‬ ‫‪0.125086‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪61‬‬ ‫‪0.831475‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪61‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪67‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪28‬‬ ‫‪0.804005‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪64‬‬ ‫‪0.736537‬‬ ‫‪64‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪68‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪29‬‬ ‫‪0.431573‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪66‬‬ ‫‪0.755743‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪67‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪72‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪30‬‬ ‫‪0.785686‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪69‬‬ ‫‪0.389873‬‬ ‫‪69‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪72‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪Totals‬‬ ‫‪69‬‬ ‫‪61‬‬ ‫‪56‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬
‫ﻣﺪة اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪ 72‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‬

‫‪ -1‬ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ أﺣﻤﺪ = ‪ 0.847 = 61/72‬أو ‪%85‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﺑﻜﺮ = ‪ 0.777 = 56/72‬أو ‪%78‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﻋﺪد اﻟﻠﺬﯾﻦ ﺧﺪﻣﮭﻢ أﺣﻤﺪ = ‪ 18‬ﻣﻦ ‪ 30‬أي ‪ %60‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‬
‫‪ -4‬ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻷﺣﻤﺪ = ‪ 3.39= 61/18‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ )ﻗﺎرﻧﮭﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﯿﺔ(‬
‫‪ -5‬ﻋﺪد اﻟﻠﺬﯾﻦ ﺧﺪﻣﮭﻢ ﺑﻜﺮ= ‪ 12‬ﻣﻦ ‪ 30‬أو ‪ %40‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‬
‫‪ -6‬ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﺒﻜﺮ = ‪ 4.67 = 56/12‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ )ﻗﺎرﻧﮭﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﯿﺔ(‬
‫‪ -7‬ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻟﻠﺠﻤﯿﻊ = ‪ 0.53 = 16/30‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‬
‫‪ -8‬ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻟﻤﻦ اﻧﺘﻈﺮوا ﻓﻌﻼ= ‪ 1.6 = 16/10‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‬
‫‪ -9‬ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل= ‪ 2.3 = 69/30‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ )ﻗﺎرﻧﮭﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﯿﺔ(‬
‫‪ -10‬إﺣﺘﻤﺎل ان اﻟﺰﺑﻮن ﯾﻨﺘﻈﺮ=‪0.33 = 10/30‬‬
‫‪ -11‬ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻜﻮث ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم= ‪ 2.4 = 72/30‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪ :3‬ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺑﺎﺋﻊ اﻟﺼﺤﻒ‪:‬‬

‫ھﺬه ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺗﻘﻠﯿﺪﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻈﺎم اﻟﻤﺨﺰون وﺗﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺸﺮاء وﺑﯿﻊ ﺻﺤﻒ‪ .‬ﺑﺎﺋﻊ اﻟﺼﺤﻒ ﯾﺸﺘﺮي اﻟﺼﺤﯿﻔﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻮاﺣﺪة ﺑـ ‪ 150‬ھﻠﻠﺔ وﯾﺒﯿﻌﮭﺎ ﺑـ ‪ 200‬ھﻠﻠﺔ‪ ،‬اﻟﺼﺤﻒ اﻟﻤﺘﺒﻘﯿﺔ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﯿﻮم ﺗﺒﺎع ﻟﻤﺼﻨﻊ ﻗﺮاطﯿﺲ‬
‫ﺑﺴﻌﺮ ‪ 10‬ھﻠﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﺼﺤﯿﻔﺔ اﻟﻮاﺣﺪة‪ .‬ﯾﺸﺘﺮي اﻟﺒﺎﺋﻊ اﻟﺼﺤﻒ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻮزع ﻓﻲ ﺣﺰم ﺗﺘﻜﻮن ﻣﻦ ‪10‬‬
‫ﺻﺤﻒ )أي ﯾﻤﻜﻨﮫ ﺷﺮاء ‪ 10‬او ‪ 20‬او ‪ 30‬وھﻜﺬا‪ ...‬ﺻﺤﯿﻔﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺮة(‪ .‬اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺼﺤﻒ‬
‫ﯾﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻮع اﻷﺧﺒﺎر ﻓﻲ ذﻟﻚ اﻟﯿﻮم ﻓﮭﻨﺎك ﯾﻮم أﺧﺒﺎر ﺟﯿﺪ وﯾﻮم أﺧﺒﺎر ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ وﯾﻮم أﺧﺒﺎر‬
‫ﺿﻌﯿﻒ ﺑﺈﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻت ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﻮاﻟﻲ ‪ 0.35‬و ‪ 0.45‬و ‪ 0.20‬ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺼﺤﻒ ﻟﻜﻞ ﯾﻮم‬
‫ﺣﺴﺐ ﻧﻮع أﻷﺧﺒﺎر ھﻮ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪27‬‬
‫‪Demand Probability Distribution‬‬
‫___________________________________________‬
‫‪Demand‬‬ ‫‪Good‬‬ ‫‪Fair‬‬ ‫‪Poor‬‬
‫‪40‬‬ ‫‪0.03‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬ ‫‪0.44‬‬
‫‪50‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪0.18‬‬ ‫‪0.22‬‬
‫‪60‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪0.40‬‬ ‫‪0.16‬‬
‫‪70‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬ ‫‪0.12‬‬
‫‪80‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.08‬‬ ‫‪0.06‬‬
‫‪90‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪0.04‬‬ ‫‪0.00‬‬
‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪0.07‬‬ ‫‪0.00‬‬ ‫‪0.00‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ اﻟﻌﺪد اﻷﻣﺜﻞ ﻟﻌﺪد اﻟﺼﺤﻒ اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺸﺘﺮﯾﮭﺎ ﺑﺎﺋﻊ اﻟﺼﺤﻒ‪.‬‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﺤﺎﻛﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻟﻤﺪة ‪ 20‬ﯾﻮﻣﺎ وﻧﺤﺪد اﻟﺮﺑﺢ اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ واﻟﺬي ﯾﺤﺴﺐ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪Revenue‬‬ ‫‪Cost of‬‬ ‫‪Lost profit from‬‬ ‫‪Salvage from sale‬‬
‫= ‪Profit‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪+‬‬
‫‪From Sales newspapers‬‬ ‫‪excess demand‬‬ ‫‪of scrap papers‬‬
‫اﻟﺮﺑﺢ = ﺻﺎﻓﻲ اﻟﺒﯿﻊ – ﺳﻌﺮاﻟﺼﺤﻒ – اﻟﺮﺑﺢ اﻟﻀﺎﺋﻊ ﻣﻦ زﯾﺎدة اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ‪ +‬اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻨﻘﺬ ﻛﻤﺒﺎع‬
‫ﻟﻠﻘﺮاطﯿﺲ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺷﺮح اﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻧﺠﺪ ان‪:‬‬
‫ﺻﺎﻓﻲ اﻟﺒﯿﻊ = ‪ * 200‬ﻋﺪد اﻟﺼﺤﻒ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﻋﺔ‬
‫ﺳﻌﺮ اﻟﺼﺤﻒ = ‪ * 150‬ﻋﺪد اﻟﺼﺤﻒ اﻟﻤﺸﺘﺮاة‬
‫اﻟﺮﺑﺢ اﻟﻀﺎﺋﻊ ﻣﻦ زﯾﺎدة اﻟﻄﻠﺐ = ‪) * 50‬ﻋﺪد اﻟﺼﺤﻒ اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ – ﻋﺪد اﻟﺼﺤﻒ اﻟﻤﺸﺘﺮاة( ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ان ﺗﻜﻮن ﻋﺪد اﻟﺼﺤﻒ اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ اﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺼﺤﻒ اﻟﻤﺸﺘﺮاة‬
‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻨﻘﺬ ﻛﻤﺒﺎع ﻟﻠﻘﺮاطﯿﺲ = ‪ ) * 10‬ﻋﺪد اﻟﺼﺤﻒ اﻟﻤﺸﺘﺮاة – ﻋﺪد اﻟﺼﺤﻒ اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ( ﻋﻠﻰ ان‬
‫ﺗﻜﻮن ﻋﺪد اﻟﺼﺤﻒ اﻟﻤﺸﺘﺮاة اﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺼﺤﻒ اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻟﺤﻞ ھﺬه اﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﯾﺠﺐ ﻋﻠﯿﻨﺎ ﺗﺒﻨﻲ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺔ ﺷﺮاء ﻋﺪد ﻣﻌﯿﻦ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺼﺤﻒ ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ ﺛﻢ ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة‬
‫اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺼﺤﻒ ﻟﻤﺪة ‪ 20‬ﯾﻮﻣﺎ وﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ اﻟﺮﺑﺢ اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ‪ ،‬اﻟﺴﯿﺎﺳﺔ )وھﻲ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺼﺤﻒ اﻟﻤﺸﺘﺮاة(‬
‫ھﺬه ﺗﻐﯿﺮ ﺣﺘﻰ ﻧﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺼﺤﻒ اﻟﻤﺸﺘﺮاة اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﻜﻮن اﻟﺮﺑﺢ ﻋﻨﺪھﺎ اﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﺎ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﺠﺪاول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ ﻧﻮع ﯾﻮم اﻷﺧﺒﺎر‪:‬‬
‫‪28‬‬
Cumulative Random Numbers
Type of Newsday Probability Probability Assignment
Good 0.35 0.35 0.000-0.350
Fair 0.45 0.80 0.351-0.800
Poor 0.20 1.00 0.801-1.000
:‫واﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺼﺤﻒ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻧﻮع ﯾﻮم اﻷﺧﺒﺎر‬
Cumulative Probability Random Numbers Assignment
__________________________________________________
Demand Good Fair Poor Good Fair Poor
40 0.03 0.10 0.44 0.000-0.030 0.000-0.100 0.000-0.440
50 0.08 0.28 0.66 0.031-0.080 0.101-0.280 0.441-0.660
60 0.23 0.68 0.82 0.081-0.230 0.281-0.680 0.661-0.820
70 0.43 0.88 0.94 0.231-0.430 0.681-0.880 0.821-0.940
80 0.78 0.96 1.00 0.431-0.780 0.881-0.960 0.941-1.000
90 0.93 1.00 1.00 0.781-0.930 0.961-1.000
100 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.931-1.000
:‫ ﯾﻮم وﺣﺴﺎب اﻟﺮﺑﺢ اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ‬20 ‫ ﺻﺤﯿﻔﺔ ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ ﻟﻤﺪة‬70 ‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﻜﻮن ﺟﺪوﻻ ﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺷﺮاء‬
Random
Numbers for Random Revenue Lost Profits Salvage
Type of Type of Numbers for from from Excess from Sale Daily
Day Newsday Newsday Demand Demand Sales Demand of Scrap Profit
1 0.668258 Fair 0.516101 60 12000 - 500 2000
2 0.059141 Good 0.421215 70 14000 - - 3500
3 0.844465 Poor 0.122752 40 8000 - 1500 -1000
4 0.575663 Fair 0.417585 60 12000 - 500 2000
5 0.777212 Fair 0.873137 70 14000 - - 3500
6 0.721669 Fair 0.028883 40 8000 - 1500 -1000
7 0.940940 Poor 0.442408 40 8000 - 1500 -1000
8 0.739749 Fair 0.154498 50 10000 - 1000 500
9 0.322162 Good 0.789384 80 16000 2000 - 3500
10 0.933698 Poor 0.948650 70 14000 - - 3500
29
‫‪11‬‬ ‫‪0.682856‬‬ ‫‪Fair‬‬ ‫‪0.462126‬‬ ‫‪60‬‬ ‫‪12000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪500‬‬ ‫‪2000‬‬
‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪0.948467‬‬ ‫‪Poor‬‬ ‫‪0.427917‬‬ ‫‪40‬‬ ‫‪8000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪1500‬‬ ‫‪-1000‬‬
‫‪13‬‬ ‫‪0.321750‬‬ ‫‪Good‬‬ ‫‪0.436062‬‬ ‫‪70‬‬ ‫‪14000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪3500‬‬
‫‪14‬‬ ‫‪0.576449‬‬ ‫‪Fair‬‬ ‫‪0.852654‬‬ ‫‪70‬‬ ‫‪14000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪3500‬‬
‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪0.469982‬‬ ‫‪Fair‬‬ ‫‪0.664128‬‬ ‫‪60‬‬ ‫‪12000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪500‬‬ ‫‪2000‬‬
‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪0.325208‬‬ ‫‪Good‬‬ ‫‪0.551011‬‬ ‫‪80‬‬ ‫‪16000‬‬ ‫‪2000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪3500‬‬
‫‪17‬‬ ‫‪0.119710‬‬ ‫‪Good‬‬ ‫‪0.149210‬‬ ‫‪60‬‬ ‫‪12000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪500‬‬ ‫‪2000‬‬
‫‪18‬‬ ‫‪0.526681‬‬ ‫‪Fair‬‬ ‫‪0.992919‬‬ ‫‪90‬‬ ‫‪18000‬‬ ‫‪4000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪3500‬‬
‫‪19‬‬ ‫‪0.355738‬‬ ‫‪Fair‬‬ ‫‪0.339435‬‬ ‫‪60‬‬ ‫‪12000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪500‬‬ ‫‪2000‬‬
‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪0.734686‬‬ ‫‪Fair‬‬ ‫‪0.231963‬‬ ‫‪50‬‬ ‫‪10000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪1000‬‬ ‫‪500‬‬
‫‪244000‬‬ ‫‪8000‬‬ ‫‪11000‬‬ ‫‪37000‬‬
‫ﻧﻼﺣﻆ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺠﺪول ﻣﻦ ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪ 20‬ﯾﻮﻣﺎ أن ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﻟﺮﺑﺢ اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ ھﻮ ‪ 1850‬ھﻠﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ أﺳﺎس‬
‫ﺷﺮاﺋﮫ ‪ 70‬ﺻﺤﯿﻔﺔ ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ‪ .‬ﯾﺘﺮك ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﻛﺘﻤﺮﯾﻦ ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة اﻟﺴﯿﺎﺳﺎت اﻷﺧﺮى )ﺷﺮاء ‪ 40‬و ‪ 50‬و‬
‫‪ 60‬و ‪ 80‬و ‪ 90‬و‪ 100‬ﺻﺤﯿﻔﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﯿﻮم(‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪ :4‬ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﺨﺰﯾﻦ‪:‬‬

‫طﻠﺐ اﻟﺸﺮاء اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﺘﺞ ﻣﻌﯿﻦ ﯾﺘﺒﻊ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪Daily Demand‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬

‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪0.33‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬ ‫‪0.12‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬
‫ﯾﻔﺤﺺ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ﻣﻦ ھﺬا اﻟﻤﻨﺘﺞ ﻛﻞ ﺳﺒﻌﺔ اﯾﺎم ﻓﺈذا وﺟﺪ اﻧﮫ اﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ او ﯾﺴﺎوي ‪ 6‬وﺣﺪات ﯾﺘﻢ طﻠﺐ‬
‫‪ 10‬وﺣﺪات‪ .‬أي طﻠﺒﯿﺔ ﺗﺤﻘﻖ ﺑﻘﺪراﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮد وﻻﺗﺆﺧﺬ طﻠﺒﯿﺎت ﺗﻌﻮﯾﻀﯿﺔ )أي ﺗﺤﻘﻖ ﺑﻌﺪ‬
‫وﺻﻮل ﻣﺨﺰون ﺟﺪﯾﺪ(‪ .‬زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻘﺪم ‪) Lead Time‬وھﻮ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻘﻄﻮع ﻣﻦ ﺣﯿﻦ وﺿﻊ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ‬
‫ﺣﺘﻰ وﺻﻮﻟﮫ( ﯾﺘﺒﻊ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫)‪Lead Time (Days‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬

‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬
‫‪30‬‬
‫ﻣﺒﺘﺪا ﻣﻦ اول اﻷﺳﺒﻮع إذا ﻛﺎن اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﺒﺪاﺋﻲ ‪ 12‬وﺣﺪة وﻻﺗﻮﺟﺪ طﻠﺒﯿﺎت ﻟﺮﻓﻊ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ﺑﻌﺪ‬
‫ﻓﺤﺎﻛﻲ ﯾﺪوﯾﺎ ‪ 6‬أﺳﺎﺑﯿﻊ ﻟﮭﺬا اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ‪ .‬ﺣﺪد ﻧﺴﺒﺔ اﻷﯾﺎم اﻟﺘﻲ ﺣﺪث ﻓﯿﮭﺎ ﻧﻘﺺ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ طﻠﺒﯿﺔ وﻧﺴﺒﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻮﺣﺪات اﻟﺘﻲ طﻠﺒﺖ وﻟﻢ ﺗﺤﻘﻖ و ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻮﺣﺪات اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮاء اﺳﺒﻮﻋﯿﺎ‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﺤﻞ‪:‬‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة اﻟﯿﺪوﯾﺔ ﻧﻜﻮن اﻟﺠﺪاول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺟﺪول ﻣﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪Demand‬‬ ‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪Cumulative Probability‬‬ ‫‪Random Number‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0.33‬‬ ‫‪0.33‬‬ ‫‪0.00 – 0.33‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.58‬‬ ‫‪0.34 – 0.58‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬ ‫‪0.78‬‬ ‫‪0.59 – 0.78‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.12‬‬ ‫‪0.90‬‬ ‫‪0.79 – 0.90‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬ ‫‪0.91 – 1.00‬‬
‫ﺟﺪول ﻣﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻘﺪم‪:‬‬

‫‪Lead Time‬‬ ‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪Cumulative Probability‬‬ ‫‪Random Number‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.00 – 0.30‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪0.31 – 0.80‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪1.0‬‬ ‫‪0.81 – 1.00‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪:‬‬
‫اﻻﺳﺒﻮع اﻷول‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻷول‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮد‪ 12 :‬وﺣﺪة‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻟﮭﺬا اﻟﯿﻮم ‪ :‬اﻟﺮﻗﻢ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ‪ 0.419225‬ﻣﻦ ﺟﺪول اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﯾﻜﻮن ‪ 1‬وﺣﺪة‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻟﮭﺬا اﻟﯿﻮم‪ :‬اﻟﺮﻗﻢ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ‪ 0.672281‬ﻣﻦ ﺟﺪول اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﯾﻜﻮن ‪ 2‬وﺣﺪة‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮد‪ 9 :‬وﺣﺪات‪.‬‬
‫‪31‬‬
‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺴﺎدس‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻊ‪:‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻷﺳﺒﻮع اﻷول ﺗﺒﻘﻰ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ‪ 8‬وﺣﺪات‬
‫ﻧﺘﯿﺠﺔ اﻟﻔﺤﺺ‪ :‬ﻻﺗﻀﻊ طﻠﺒﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫اﻷﺳﺒﻮع اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪32‬‬
‫)ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻧﻘﺺ وﺣﺪﺗﯿﻦ(‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻷﺳﺒﻮع اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻢ ﯾﺘﺒﻘﻰ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ﺷﯿﺊ وﺣﺪث ﻧﻘﺺ ‪ 4‬وﺣﺪات‬
‫ﻧﺘﯿﺠﺔ اﻟﻔﺤﺺ‪ :‬ﺿﻊ طﻠﺒﯿﺔ ‪ 10‬وﺣﺪات‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻮﻋﺪ وﺻﻮل اﻟﻄﻠﺒﯿﺔ‪ :‬اﻟﺮﻗﻢ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ‪ 0.315576‬زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻘﺪم ‪ 2‬ﯾﻮم‪.‬‬
‫اﻷﺳﺒﻮع اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ‪) :‬وﺻﻠﺖ اﻟﻄﻠﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﺠﺪﯾﺪة(‬
‫‪33‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻷﺳﺒﻮع اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ﻟﻢ ﯾﺘﺒﻘﻰ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ﺷﯿﺊ وﻟﻢ ﯾﺤﺪث ﻧﻘﺺ‪.‬‬
‫اﻷﺳﺒﻮع اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ‪:‬‬
‫)ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻧﻘﺺ ‪ 4‬وﺣﺪات(‬
‫‪34‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻷﺳﺒﻮع اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ ﻟﻢ ﯾﺘﺒﻘﻰ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ﺷﯿﺊ وﺣﺪث ﻧﻘﺺ ‪ 7‬وﺣﺪات‪.‬‬
‫اﻷﺳﺒﻮع اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‪) :‬وﺻﻠﺖ اﻟﻄﻠﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﺠﺪﯾﺪة(‬
‫‪35‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻷﺳﺒﻮع اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ ﺗﺒﻘﻰ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ‪ 3‬وﺣﺪات وﺣﺪث ﻧﻘﺺ ‪ 2‬وﺣﺪة ﻓﻲ ﺑﺪاﯾﺔ اﻷﺳﺒﻮع‪.‬‬
‫اﻷﺳﺒﻮع اﻟﺴﺎدس‪:‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻷﺳﺒﻮع اﻟﺴﺎدس ﺗﺒﻘﻰ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ‪ 2‬وﺣﺪات وﻟﻢ ﯾﺤﺪث ﻧﻘﺺ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻮﻋﺪ وﺻﻮل اﻟﻄﻠﺒﯿﺔ‪ :‬اﻟﺮﻗﻢ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ‪ 0.892844‬زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻘﺪم ‪ 3‬اﯾﺎم‪.‬‬
‫‪36‬‬
‫)ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة(‬
‫وﻧﻀﻊ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻓﻲ ﺟﺪول ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫زﻣﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﺮﻗﻢ‬ ‫اﻟﻨﻘﺺ‬ ‫ﻧﺘﯿﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺒﻘﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﻄﻠﺐ‬ ‫اﻟﺮﻗﻢ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺨﺰون‬ ‫اﻷﯾﺎم‬
‫اﻟﺘﻘﺪم‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺤﺺ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺨﺰون‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮد‬
‫ﻟﻮﺻﻮل‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻄﻠﺐ‬
‫اﻟﻄﻠﺒﯿﺔ‬
‫اﻷﺳﺒﻮع )‪(1‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.419225‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻷول‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.672281‬‬ ‫‪11‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.556692‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0.179291‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0.066128‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0.136442‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺴﺎدس‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0.219630‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻊ‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫ﻻﺗﻀﻊ طﻠﺒﯿﺔ‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻷﺳﺒﻮع‬
‫اﻷﺳﺒﻮع)‪(2‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.345517‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻷول‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.520493‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.616346‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.639711‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0.330888‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.949622‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺴﺎدس‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.640219‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻊ‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.315576‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫ﺿﻊ طﻠﺒﯿﺔ‪10‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻷﺳﺒﻮع‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.753165‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻷول‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0.132686‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‬
‫وﺻﻮل‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0.203047‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.592781‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.641142‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.711578‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺴﺎدس‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.976901‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻊ‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.940874‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻷول‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.830444‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‬
‫‪37‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.823155‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.996509‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.382630‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺴﺎدس‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0.018751‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻊ‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.599484‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻷول‬
‫وﺻﻮل‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.583797‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.835045‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.362963‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.699827‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0.089972‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺴﺎدس‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0.155004‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻊ‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.373323‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻷول‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.379252‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.584059‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0.138283‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.615948‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺴﺎدس‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.928577‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻊ‬
‫اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﻨﻘﺺ ) اﻟﻄﻠﺐ اﻟﻀﺎﺋﻊ(‬ ‫ﻋﺪد اﻷﯾﺎم اﻟﺘﻲ ﺣﺪث ﻓﯿﮭﺎ ﻧﻘﺺ‬ ‫اﻟﻄﻠﺐ‬ ‫اﻷﺳﺒﻮع‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪17‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪11‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪65‬‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮع‬
‫‪38‬‬
‫ھﻨﺎك ‪ 6‬أﯾﺎم ﺣﺪث ﻓﯿﮭﺎ ﻧﻘﺺ اي ‪ 14.3%‬ﻣﻦ اﻷﯾﺎم‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﺪد اﻟﻮﺣﺪات اﻟﺘﻲ طﻠﺒﺖ وﻟﻢ ﺗﺤﻘﻖ ھﻲ ‪ 15‬وﺣﺪة أي ‪ 23.07%‬ﻧﺴﺒﺔ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ اﻟﻀﺎﺋﻊ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻮﺣﺪات اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮاء اﺳﺒﻮﻋﯿﺎ ‪ 10.83‬وﺣﺪة وھﻲ اﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻮﺣﺪات اﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫ﯾﺘﻢ طﻠﺒﮭﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪ 5‬ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ‪:‬‬

‫ﯾﺮﯾﺪ أﺣﺪ اﻟﺨﺒﺎزﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﺪد أرﻏﻔﺔ أﻟﺨﺒﺰ اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﻌﺪھﺎ ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ‪ .‬اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ أﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﻌﺪد‬
‫اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ ﯾﻌﻄﻰ ﺑﺎﻟﺠﺪول‪:‬‬
‫‪Number of Customers/Day‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪14‬‬

‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.30‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬
‫ﻛﻞ زﺑﻮن ﯾﺸﺘﺮي ﻋﺪد ﻣﻦ اﻷرﻏﻔﺔ ﺣﺴﺐ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪Number of Loafs/Customer‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬

‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬
‫ﺣﺎﻛﻲ ﯾﺪوﯾﺎ ﺧﻤﺴﺔ أﯾﺎم ﻋﻤﻞ وﺣﺪد ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﺪد اﻷرﻏﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﻌﺪھﺎ اﻟﺨﺒﺎز ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﻌﺪ ﺟﺪول )‪ (1‬ﻟﻌﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﻟﻜﻞ ﯾﻮم‬
‫‪Number of Customers‬‬ ‫‪CDF‬‬ ‫‪Random Number‬‬

‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.01 - 0.35‬‬
‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪0.65‬‬ ‫‪0.36 - 0.65‬‬
‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪0.90‬‬ ‫‪0.66 – 0.90‬‬
‫‪14‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.91 - 1‬‬
‫ﻧﻌﺪ ﺟﺪول )‪ (2‬ﻟﻌﺪد اﻷرﻏﻔﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ زﺑﻮن‬
‫‪39‬‬
Number of Loafs CDF Random Number
4 0.40 0.01 - 0.40
8 0.70 0.41 - 0.70
12 0.90 0.71 – 0.90
16 1 0.91 - 1
8 ‫( ﻧﺠﺪ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‬1) ‫ وﻣﻦ ﺟﺪول‬R = 0.25 :‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻷول‬
Customer Number R Number of Loafs

1 0.01 04
2 0.93 16
3 0.70 08
4 0.66 08
5 0.74 12
6 0.79 12
7 0.47 08
8 0.68 08 Total = 76
8 ‫( ﻧﺠﺪ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‬1) ‫ وﻣﻦ ﺟﺪول‬R = 0.18 :‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‬

1 0.88 12
2 0.07 04
3 0.99 16
4 0.51 08
5 0.04 04
6 0.01 04
7 0.43 08
8 0.60 08 Total = 64
10 ‫( ﻧﺠﺪ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‬1) ‫ وﻣﻦ ﺟﺪول‬R = 0.59 :‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ‬
40
1 0.55 08
2 0.64 08
3 0.10 04
4 0.61 08
5 0.22 04
6 0.85 12
7 0.42 08
8 0.01 04
9 0.98 16
10 0.05 04 Total = 76
8 ‫( ﻧﺠﺪ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‬1) ‫ وﻣﻦ ﺟﺪول‬R = 0.20 :‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ‬

1 0.11 04
2 0.23 04
3 0.68 08
4 0.41 08
5 0.96 16
6 0.48 08
7 0.11 04
8 0.59 08 Total = 60
8 ‫( ﻧﺠﺪ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‬1) ‫ وﻣﻦ ﺟﺪول‬R = 0.11 :‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ‬

1 0.10 04
2 0.25 04
3 0.01 04
4 0.93 16
5 0.70 08
41
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪0.66‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪0.74‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪0.79‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪Total = 64‬‬
‫وھﻜﺬا ﻓﺈن ﻋﺪد أﻷرﻏﻔﺔ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺧﻤﺴﺔ أﯾﺎم ھﻲ‪ 76,64,76,60,64 :‬رﻏﯿﻔﺎ‪ .‬إذا ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﺪد‬
‫اﻷرﻏﻔﺔ ھﻮ ‪ 68‬رﻏﯿﻔﺎ‪.‬‬
‫إﺟﺮاء آﺧﺮ‪:‬‬
‫ﻹﺟﺮاء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة اﻟﯿﺪوﯾﺔ ﻧﻜﻮن ﺟﺪاول ﻟﻠﻤﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺟﺪول ﻣﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﻟﻜﻞ ﯾﻮم‬
‫‪Number of Customers/Day‬‬ ‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪Cumulative Probability‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬
‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪0.30‬‬ ‫‪0.65‬‬
‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.90‬‬
‫‪14‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬
‫ﺟﺪول ﻣﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ ﻋﺪد اﻷرﻏﻔﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ زﺑﻮن‬

‫‪Number of Loafs/Customer‬‬ ‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪Cumulative Probability‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬
‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.9‬‬
‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪1.0‬‬
‫ﻧﻮﺟﺪ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﺑﺴﺤﺐ رﻗﻢ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ‪ 0.125002‬وﺑﻤﺎ أن ھﺬا اﻟﺮﻗﻢ ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 0‬و ‪ 0.35‬إذا ﻋﺪد‬
‫اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﻟﻠﯿﻮم اﻷول = ‪8‬‬
‫ﻧﺤﺪد اﻵن ﻋﺪد اﻷرﻏﻔﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ زﺑﻮن ﻣﻦ اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ اﻟـ ‪8‬‬
‫‪Number of Customer‬‬ ‫‪Random Number‬‬ ‫‪Number of Loafs‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.747727‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.165930‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬

‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.807279‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫‪42‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.691822‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0.332073‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪0.865662‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪0.954414‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪0.605033‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪Total‬‬ ‫‪76‬‬
‫إذا ﻋﺪد اﻷرﻏﻔﺔ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﻟﻠﯿﻮم اﻷول = ‪ 76‬رﻏﯿﻔﺎ‬

‫ﻧﻮﺟﺪ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﺑﺴﺤﺐ رﻗﻢ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ‪ 0.436581‬وﺑﻤﺎ أن ھﺬا اﻟﺮﻗﻢ ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 0.35‬و‪ 0.65‬إذا‬
‫ﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﻟﻠﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ = ‪10‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.795704‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.191331‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬

‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.326339‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.760580‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0.232169‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪0.766908‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪0.897992‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪0.498371‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪0.593898‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪0.917927‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬
‫‪Total‬‬ ‫‪92‬‬
‫إذا ﻋﺪد اﻷرﻏﻔﺔ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﻟﻠﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ = ‪ 92‬رﻏﯿﻔﺎ‬

‫‪43‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.500345‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.377338‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬

‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.497917‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.560237‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0.742156‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪0.066540‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪0.953874‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪0.048342‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪0.133688‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪0.145730‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪11‬‬ ‫‪0.313932‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪0.656628‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪13‬‬ ‫‪0.146369‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪14‬‬ ‫‪0.688054‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪Total‬‬ ‫‪96‬‬
‫إذا ﻋﺪد اﻷرﻏﻔﺔ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﻟﻠﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ = ‪ 96‬رﻏﯿﻔﺎ‬

‫ﻧﻮﺟﺪ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﺑﺴﺤﺐ رﻗﻢ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ‪ 0.852771‬وﺑﻤﺎ أن ھﺬا اﻟﺮﻗﻢ ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 0.65‬و ‪ 0.90‬إذا‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.102021‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.352606‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬

‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.739246‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.278503‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0.495604‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪0.471064‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪0.214966‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪0.784797‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪0.922574‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬
‫‪44‬‬
‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪0.011573‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪11‬‬ ‫‪0.530562‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪0.811989‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫‪Total‬‬ ‫‪100‬‬
‫إذا ﻋﺪد اﻷرﻏﻔﺔ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﻟﻠﯿﻮم اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ = ‪ 100‬رﻏﯿﻔﺎ‬

‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.113377‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.682001‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬

‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.860924‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.616596‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0.670505‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪0.996726‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪0.203282‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪0.616869‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪0.337997‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪0.273178‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪11‬‬ ‫‪0.832140‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪0.575714‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪Total‬‬ ‫‪96‬‬
‫إذا ﻋﺪد اﻷرﻏﻔﺔ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﻟﻠﯿﻮم اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ = ‪ 96‬رﻏﯿﻔﺎ‬

‫إذا ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﺪد اﻷرﻏﻔﺔ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ ھﻮ‬
‫‪76 + 92 + 96 + 100 + 96 460‬‬
‫= ‪Average Number of Loafs‬‬ ‫=‬ ‫‪= 92‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫وﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ اﻷﻓﻀﻞ ﻟﻠﺨﺒﺎز إﻋﺪاد ‪ 92‬رﻏﯿﻔﺎ ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪45‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪ :6‬ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻧﻈﺎم ﺗﺨﺰﯾﻦ )‪: (M,N‬‬
‫ﻟﻨﻔﺘﺮض ان اﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ﻟﻠﺘﺨﺰﯾﻦ )‪ 11 (M‬وﺣﺪة وﻓﺘﺮة اﻟﻤﺮاﺟﻌﺔ )‪ (N‬ھﻲ ‪ 5‬أﯾﺎم‪ .‬ﻧﺮﯾﺪ ان ﻧﻘﺪر‬
‫ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﻟﻮﺣﺪات اﻟﻤﺘﺒﻘﯿﺔ وﻋﺪد اﻷﯾﺎم اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺤﺪث ﻓﯿﮭﺎ ﻧﻘﺺ‪ .‬اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﻟﻌﺪد اﻟﻮﺣﺪات اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﯿﻮم ﺗﻌﻄﻰ ﺑﺎﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪Demand‬‬ ‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪Cumulative Probability‬‬ ‫‪Random Numbers‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬ ‫‪0.00 – 0.10‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.11 – 0.35‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.70‬‬ ‫‪0.36 – 0.70‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.21‬‬ ‫‪0.91‬‬ ‫‪0.71 – 0.91‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.09‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬ ‫‪0.92 – 1.00‬‬
‫زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻘﺪم ﺑﺎﻷﯾﺎم ﻟﮫ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪Lead Time Probability Cumulative Probability‬‬ ‫‪Random Numbers‬‬

‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.00 – 0.60‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.9‬‬ ‫‪0.61 – 0.90‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪1.0‬‬ ‫‪0.91 – 1.00‬‬
‫أﻓﺘﺮض ان وﺿﻊ اﻟﻄﻠﺒﯿﺔ ﺗﻮﺿﻊ ﻓﻲ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﯿﻮم اﻷﺧﯿﺮ وﺗﺴﺘﻘﺒﻞ ﻛﻤﺎ ھﻮ ﻣﺤﺪد ﺑﺰﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻘﺪم‪ .‬ﺣﺎﻛﻲ‬
‫اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻟﻤﺪة ‪ 5‬دورات واوﺟﺪ اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب‪.‬‬
‫ﻟﻨﻔﺘﺮض أﻧﻨﺎ ﺑﺪأﻧﺎ ﺑﺄﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ﻟﻠﺘﺨﺰﯾﻦ ‪ 11‬وﺣﺪة وﻻﺗﻮﺟﺪ طﻠﺒﯿﺎت ﻟﺘﻌﺪﯾﻞ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ) اﻟﻤﺜﺎل‬
‫ﯾﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻋﻦ اﻟﻜﺘﺎب اﻟﻤﻘﺮر ﻓﻲ ھﺬه اﻟﺒﺪاﯾﺔ (‬
‫اﻟﺪورة اﻷوﻟﻰ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻷول‪ :‬اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮد ‪ 11‬وﺣﺪة‪ .‬ﻧﻮﻟﺪ رﻗﻢ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﯾﺪ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ‪ 0.664078‬وﻣﻦ‬
‫اﻟﺠﺪول اﻷول ﻧﺠﺪ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ھﻮ ‪ 2‬وﺣﺪة‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‪ :‬اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮد ‪ 9‬وﺣﺪات‪ .‬ﻧﻮﻟﺪ رﻗﻢ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﯾﺪ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ‪ 0.607454‬أي‬
‫اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ‪ 2‬وﺣﺪات‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ‪ :‬اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮد ‪ 7‬وﺣﺪات‪ .‬ﻧﻮﻟﺪ رﻗﻢ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﯾﺪ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ‪ 0.607326‬أي‬
‫‪46‬‬
‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ‪ :‬اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮد ‪ 5‬وﺣﺪات‪ .‬ﻧﻮﻟﺪ رﻗﻢ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﯾﺪ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ‪ 0.906827‬أي‬
‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ‪ :‬اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮد ‪ 2‬وﺣﺪات‪ .‬ﻧﻮﻟﺪ رﻗﻢ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﯾﺪ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ‪ 0.526820‬أي‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﺪورة اﻷوﻟﻰ‪ :‬اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮد ‪ 0‬وﺣﺪة‪ .‬ﺗﻮﺿﻊ طﻠﺒﯿﺔ ‪ 11‬وﺣﺪة‪ .‬زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻘﺪم ﯾﺤﺪد‬
‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﺑﺴﺤﺐ رﻗﻢ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ‪ 0.880703‬أي زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻘﺪم ‪ 2‬ﯾﻮم‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﺪورة اﻟﺜﺎﻧﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻷول‪ :‬اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮد ‪ 0‬وﺣﺪة‪ .‬ﻧﻮﻟﺪ رﻗﻢ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﯾﺪ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ‪ 0.017586‬أي اﻟﻄﻠﺐ‬
‫‪ 0‬وﺣﺪات‪.‬‬
‫) ﻧﻘﺺ ‪ 1‬وﺣﺪة (‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﺪورة اﻟﺜﺎﻧﯿﺔ‪ :‬اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮد ‪ 6‬وﺣﺪة‪ .‬ﺗﻮﺿﻊ طﻠﺒﯿﺔ ‪ 5‬وﺣﺪات‪ .‬زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻘﺪم ﯾﺤﺪد‬
‫اﻟﺪورة اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ 4‬وﺣﺪات‪.‬‬
‫) ﻧﻘﺺ ‪ 1‬وﺣﺪة (‬
‫‪47‬‬
‫) ﻧﻘﺺ ‪ 1‬وﺣﺪة (‬
‫) ﻧﻘﺺ ‪ 2‬وﺣﺪة (‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﺪورة اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ‪ :‬اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮد ‪ 0‬وﺣﺪة‪ .‬ﺗﻮﺿﻊ طﻠﺒﯿﺔ ‪ 11‬وﺣﺪات‪ .‬زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻘﺪم ﯾﺤﺪد‬
‫اﻟﺪورة اﻟﺮاﺑﻌﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ 3‬وﺣﺪات‪.‬‬
‫) ﻧﻘﺺ ‪ 3‬وﺣﺪة (‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﺪورة اﻟﺮاﺑﻌﺔ‪ :‬اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮد ‪ 3‬وﺣﺪة‪ .‬ﺗﻮﺿﻊ طﻠﺒﯿﺔ ‪ 8‬وﺣﺪات‪ .‬زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻘﺪم ﯾﺤﺪد‬
‫اﻟﺪورة اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺴﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ 2‬وﺣﺪات‪.‬‬
‫‪48‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﺪورة اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺴﺔ‪ :‬اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮد ‪ 1‬وﺣﺪة‪ .‬ﺗﻮﺿﻊ طﻠﺒﯿﺔ ‪ 10‬وﺣﺪات‪ .‬زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻘﺪم ﯾﺤﺪد‬
‫وھﻜﺬا ‪...‬‬
‫وﻧﻠﺨﺺ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪Days Until‬‬
‫‪Beginning‬‬ ‫‪Ending‬‬ ‫‪Shortage‬‬ ‫‪Order‬‬ ‫‪Order‬‬
‫‪Cycle Day‬‬ ‫‪Inventory‬‬ ‫‪Demand Inventory‬‬ ‫‪Quantity‬‬ ‫‪Quantity‬‬ ‫‪Arrives‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪11‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪11‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪11‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪11‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪11‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬
‫‪49‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪53‬‬ ‫‪85‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬
‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﻟﻮﺣﺪات اﻟﻤﺘﺒﻘﯿﺔ ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ =‪ 3.4 = 85/25‬وﺣﺪة‪.‬‬

‫ﻋﺪد اﻷﯾﺎم اﻟﺘﻲ ﺣﺪث ﻓﯿﮭﺎ ﻧﻘﺺ ‪ 5‬أﯾﺎم أي ‪ %20‬ﻣﻦ اﻷﯾﺎم‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﻨﻘﺺ ﯾﺸﻜﻞ )‪ ( 8/53‬اي ‪ %15.09‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ اﻟﻜﻠﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪ :7‬ﻛﻢ ﯾﻜﺴﺐ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﻮل‪:‬‬
‫ﺗﻤﺮ أﺣﺪ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﻮﻻت ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﻨﺎزل ﺗﺴﺘﺠﺪي ﻣﺒﻠﻐﺎ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺎل‪ .‬ﻣﻦ ﺧﺒﺮﺗﮭﺎ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺗﻘﺪر أن ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﯾﺨﺎطﺒﮭﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻠﻒ اﻟﺒﺎب ﯾﺸﻜﻞ ‪ 80%‬ﻣﻨﮭﻢ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﺴﺎء و ‪ 20%‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﺮﺟﺎل‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ اﻧﮭﺎ ﺗﻘﺪر أن‬
‫‪ 70%‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﺴﺎء اﻟﻶﺗﻲ ﯾﺨﺎطﺒﻨﮭﺎ ﯾﻘﻤﻦ ﺑﺈﻋﻄﺎﺋﮭﺎ ﻣﺒﻠﻎ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺎل وﻟﻜﻦ ﻓﻘﻂ ‪ 40%‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﺮﺟﺎل‬
‫اﻟﺬﯾﻦ ﯾﺨﺎطﺒﻮﻧﮭﺎ ﯾﻔﻌﻠﻮن ذﻟﻚ‪ .‬أﯾﻀﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺧﺒﺮﺗﮭﺎ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺗﻘﺪر أن اﻟﻤﺒﻠﻎ اﻟﺬي ﯾﻌﻄﯿﮫ اﻟﻨﺴﺎء ﯾﺘﺒﻊ‬
‫ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﺘﺴﺎوي ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 18‬و‪ 22‬﷼ ﺑﯿﻨﻤﺎ ذﻟﻚ ﻟﻠﺮﺟﺎل ﯾﺘﺒﻊ اﯾﻀﺎ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﺘﺴﺎوي ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 7‬و ‪ 10‬﷼‬
‫‪ .‬إذا ﻋﻠﻤﺖ أن اﻟﻤﺘﺴﻮﻟﺔ ﺗﻐﻄﻲ ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 10‬إﻟﻰ ‪ 15‬ﻣﻨﺰﻻ ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ ﺑﻨﻔﺲ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﻓﻘﺪر ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ دﺧﻠﮭﺎ‬
‫اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻌﺪد ‪ 5‬أﯾﺎم ﺗﺴﻮل‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﻜﻮن ﺟﺪاول اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺟﺪول ﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻤﻨﺎزل اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺰورھﺎ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﻮﻟﺔ‬
‫‪Number of Houses‬‬ ‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪CDF‬‬ ‫‪Random Number‬‬
‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪1/6‬‬ ‫‪0.1666‬‬ ‫‪0.00000-0.16666‬‬
‫‪11‬‬ ‫‪1/6‬‬ ‫‪0.3332‬‬ ‫‪0.16667-0.33320‬‬
‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪1/6‬‬ ‫‪0.4998‬‬ ‫‪0.33321-0.49980‬‬
‫‪13‬‬ ‫‪1/6‬‬ ‫‪0.6664‬‬ ‫‪0.49981-0.66640‬‬
‫‪14‬‬ ‫‪1/6‬‬ ‫‪0.8330‬‬ ‫‪0.66641-0.83300‬‬
‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪1/6‬‬ ‫‪1.0000‬‬ ‫‪0.83301-1.00000‬‬
‫ﺟﺪول ﻣﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ اﻟﻤﺨﺎطﺐ‬

‫‪Who Answer‬‬ ‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪CDF‬‬ ‫‪Random Number‬‬
‫‪Female‬‬ ‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪0.00 - 0.80‬‬
‫‪Male‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪1.0‬‬ ‫‪0.81 - 1.00‬‬
‫ﺟﺪول ﻣﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ اﻧﺜﻰ ھﻞ ﺗﺪﻓﻊ ﻣﺒﻠﻎ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺎل‬
‫‪50‬‬
‫?‪Female Donate‬‬ ‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪CDF‬‬ ‫‪Random Number‬‬
‫‪Yes‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.00 - 0.70‬‬
‫‪No‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪1.0‬‬ ‫‪0.71 - 1.00‬‬
‫ﺟﺪول ﻣﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ إذا ﻛﺎن رﺟﻞ ھﻞ ﯾﺪﻓﻊ ﻣﺒﻠﻎ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺎل‬

‫?‪Male Donate‬‬ ‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪CDF‬‬ ‫‪Random Number‬‬
‫‪Yes‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.00 - 0.40‬‬
‫‪No‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪1.0‬‬ ‫‪0.41 - 1.00‬‬
‫ﺟﺪول ﻣﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ اﻟﻤﺒﻠﻎ اﻟﺬي ﺗﺪﻓﻌﮫ اﻷﻧﺜﻰ‬

‫‪Female Donation‬‬ ‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪CDF‬‬ ‫‪Random Number‬‬
‫‪18‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.00 - 0.20‬‬
‫‪19‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.21 - 0.40‬‬
‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.41 - 0.60‬‬
‫‪21‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪0.61 - 0.80‬‬
‫‪22‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪1.0‬‬ ‫‪0.81 - 1.00‬‬
‫ﺟﺪول ﻣﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ اﻟﻤﺒﻠﻎ اﻟﺬي ﯾﺪﻓﻌﮫ اﻟﺮﺟﻞ‬

‫‪Male Donation‬‬ ‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪CDF‬‬ ‫‪Random Number‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.000 - 0.250‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.50‬‬ ‫‪0.251 - 0.500‬‬
‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.75‬‬ ‫‪0.501 - 0.750‬‬
‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬ ‫‪0.751 - 1.000‬‬
‫اﺧﯿﺮا ﻧﻜﻮن ﺟﺪول اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة )ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ‪ :‬ﺳﻮف ﻻﻧﺪون اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﺣﺘﻰ ﻻﯾﻀﯿﻖ اﻟﺠﺪول(‬
‫ﻣﺠﻤﻮع اﻟﯿﻮم‬ ‫ﻛﻢ ﯾﺪﻓﻊ‬ ‫ھﻞ ﯾﺪﻓﻊ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺨﺎطﺐ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻨﺰل‬ ‫ﻋﺪد اﻟﻤﻨﺎزل‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم‬
‫‪21‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪15‬‬ ‫اﻷول‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫رﺟﻞ‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪19‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪20‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪18‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪51‬‬
‫‪18‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫‪19‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪7‬‬
‫‪19‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪8‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫رﺟﻞ‬ ‫‪9‬‬
‫‪22‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪10‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪11‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫رﺟﻞ‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫‪18‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪13‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫رﺟﻞ‬ ‫‪14‬‬
‫‪196‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪15‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ‪13‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪10‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫رﺟﻞ‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪20‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫‪22‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪7‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪8‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪9‬‬
‫‪19‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪10‬‬
‫‪18‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪11‬‬
‫‪21‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫‪139‬‬ ‫‪22‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪13‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪11‬‬
‫‪18‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪18‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪20‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪20‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪52‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫رﺟﻞ‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪7‬‬
‫‪20‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪8‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫رﺟﻞ‬ ‫‪9‬‬
‫‪22‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪10‬‬
‫‪118‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫رﺟﻞ‬ ‫‪11‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ ‪10‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫رﺟﻞ‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪18‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫رﺟﻞ‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪21‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪19‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫‪19‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪7‬‬
‫‪20‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪8‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪9‬‬
‫‪131‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪10‬‬
‫‪22‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ ‪14‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫رﺟﻞ‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪22‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫رﺟﻞ‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫رﺟﻞ‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪7‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪8‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫رﺟﻞ‬ ‫‪9‬‬
‫‪20‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪10‬‬
‫‪19‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪11‬‬
‫‪21‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫‪53‬‬
‫‪19‬‬ ‫ﻧﻌﻢ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪13‬‬
‫‪131‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫ﻻ‬ ‫اﻧﺜﻰ‬ ‫‪14‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ ‪ 5‬اﯾﺎم ﺟﻤﻌﺖ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﻮﻟﺔ ‪ 715‬﷼ أي دﺧﻠﮭﺎ اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 143‬﷼‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻤﺮﯾﻦ‪ :‬أﺣﺴﺐ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺮﯾﺔ )اﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ ‪ 148.5‬﷼(‪.‬‬
‫‪54‬‬
‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﺻﻔﺤﺎت اﻟﻨﺸﺮ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ إﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪: Excel‬‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪم ‪ Excel‬ﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ أزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل اﻟﺘﻲ ﻟﮭﺎ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪Time between arrivals‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬
‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125‬‬
‫ﻛﻮن داﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ ‪ CDF‬ﺛﻢ أدﺧﻞ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺼﻔﺤﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﯾﺠﺐ أن ﺗﻜﻮن ﻗﯿﻢ داﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ ‪ CDF‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﻤﻮد اﻷول واﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﻤﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ‬
‫اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﻤﻮد اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺗﺒﺪأ ﻗﯿﻢ داﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺼﻔﺮ ) ‪ ( 0‬وﺗﻨﺘﮭﻲ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺴﺒﻖ ) ‪ ( 1.00‬ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮة‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﻤﻮد اﻟﻤﺮاد ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻗﯿﻢ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻧﺪﺧﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺨﻠﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ ) ﻣﺜﻼ ‪(C2‬‬
‫)‪= VLOOKUP( RAND(), RANGE OF SAMPLING TABLE, 2‬‬
‫ﺣﯿﺚ ‪ RANGE OF SAMPLING TABLE‬اﻟﻤﺠﺎل اﻟﺬي أدﺧﻠﻨﺎ ﻓﯿﮫ ﺟﺪول اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ وﻓﻲ ﻣﺜﺎﻟﻨﺎ‬
‫ھﺬا اﻟﻤﺠﺎل ھﻮ ‪ .$A$2:$B$9‬ﻻﺣﻆ إﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﻨﺎ ﻟﻠﺪاﻟﺔ )(‪ RAND‬اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻮﻟﺪ )‪. U ( 0,1‬‬
‫‪ -4‬ﻧﺴﺤﺐ )ﻧﻨﺴﺦ( اﻟﺨﻠﯿﺔ ‪ C2‬ﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ اي ﻋﺪد ﻟﺤﺠﻢ ﻋﯿﻨﺔ ﻣﻄﻠﻮب‪.‬‬
‫‪55‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل آﺧﺮ‪:‬‬
‫ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ أزﻣﻨﺔ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ ﺣﺴﺐ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ‬
‫‪Service Times‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪0.01‬‬ ‫‪0.020 0.30‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬
‫ﻛﻮن داﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺛﻢ أدﺧﻞ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺼﻔﺤﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﻛﺮراﻟﺨﻄﻮات ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺜﺎل اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‪.‬‬

‫اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻮزﯾﻌﺎت ﻧﻈﺮﯾﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻄﺒﯿﻌﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﻟﻨﻔﺮض ان أطﻮال طﻼب ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ اﻟﻤﻠﻚ ﺳﻌﻮد ﻣﻮزﻋﺔ طﺒﯿﻌﯿﺎ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 165‬ﺳﻢ وإﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﯿﺎري‬
‫‪ 5‬ﺳﻢ‪ .‬ﻧﺮﯾﺪ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻋﯿﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ أطﻮال اﻟﻄﻼب ﻣﻘﺎﺳﺔ ﻷﻗﺮب ﺳﻢ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺻﻔﺤﺔ ﻧﺸﺮ ﻧﺪﺧﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ھﻨﺎ اﺳﺘﺨﺪﻣﻨﺎ ‪ 3‬دوال‪:‬‬

‫‪ -1‬اﻟﺪاﻟﺔ )‪ .ROUND( number, num_digits‬وھﺬه اﻟﺪاﻟﺔ ﺗﻘﺮب اﻟﻌﺪد ‪ number‬ﺑﺪﻗﺔ‬
‫‪.num_digits‬‬
‫‪56‬‬
‫‪ -2‬اﻟﺪاﻟﺔ )‪ .NORMINV(probability,mean,standard_dev‬وھﺬه اﻟﺪاﻟﺔ ﺗﻌﻄﻲ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪة‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻟﮫ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ طﺒﯿﻌﻲ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ mean‬وإﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﯿﺎري ‪ .standard_dev‬ﻻﺣﻆ‬
‫ان ‪ probability‬ﺗﻮﻟﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺪاﻟﺔ )(‪.RAND‬‬
‫‪ -3‬اﻟﺪاﻟﺔ ) (‪ RAND‬واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻌﻄﻲ )‪.U ( 0,1‬‬
‫ﺑﻨﺴﺦ اﻟﺨﻠﯿﺔ ﻧﺴﺘﻄﯿﻊ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ اﻟﻌﺪد اﻟﻤﺮاد ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ اﻟﻤﻌﯿﻦ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻄﺒﯿﻌﻲ )طﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﺧﺮى(‪:‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺻﻔﺤﺔ ﻧﺸﺮ ﺣﺪد اﻟﺨﻠﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺮاد ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﺑﮭﺎ‪ ،‬ﺛﻢ اﺧﺘﺎر ‪ Tools‬و ‪Data‬‬
‫‪ Analysis‬ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫‪57‬‬
‫ﻓﺘﻈﮭﺮ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة‬
‫ﻧﺨﺘﺎر ‪ .Random Number Generation‬ﻓﺘﻈﮭﺮ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة‬
‫‪58‬‬
‫ﻧﺴﺘﻄﯿﻊ إﺧﺘﯿﺎر أي ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ‬
‫وﺑﺤﺴﺐ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺨﺘﺎر ﺗﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻧﻮاﻓﺬ اﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼت ﻓﻤﺜﻼ ﻟﻠﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻄﺒﯿﻌﻲ ﺗﻜﻮن اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة‬
‫‪59‬‬
‫ﺣﯿﺚ أدﺧﻠﻨﺎ ‪ 1‬ﻟﻌﺪد اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات )أو اﻷﻋﻤﺪة( اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺮاد ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪھﺎ‪ ،‬و ‪ 20‬ﻟﻌﺪد اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ‬
‫وﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﻌﺎﻟﻢ ‪ Parameters‬اﺑﻘﯿﻨﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﻘﺘﺮﺣﺔ )‪ (Default‬وھﻲ ‪ 0‬ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ و ‪1‬‬
‫ﻟﻺﻧﺤﺮاف اﻟﻤﻌﯿﺎري‪ .‬ﻟﻢ ﻧﺪﺧﻞ ﺷﯿﺌﺎ ﻟﻠﻨﻮاة اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ‪ Random Seed‬ﻛﻤﺎ أﺧﺘﺮﻧﺎ ﺑﺪاﯾﺔ ﺧﻠﯿﺔ‬
‫اﻹدﺧﺎل ‪ $A$2‬وﯾﻨﺘﺞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪60‬‬
‫ﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ أي ﻋﺪد ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﺒﻊ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة‬
‫واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻌﻄﯿﻨﺎ اﻹﺧﺘﯿﺎر ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 7‬ﺗﻮزﯾﻌﺎت‪ .‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ ﺳﻮف ﻧﺪرس ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﻄﺮق ﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ‬
‫ﻣﺸﺎھﺪات ﻷي ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ‪.‬‬
‫‪61‬‬
‫أﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪Excel‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪ :1‬ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻣﺎﻛﻨﺔ ﺑﯿﻊ أوﺗﻮﻣﺎﺗﯿﻜﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺗﺮﯾﺪ اﺣﺪ ﺷﺮﻛﺎت ﻣﻜﺎﺋﻦ ﺑﯿﻊ اﻟﻌﻠﻚ اﻻوﺗﻮﻣﺎﺗﯿﻜﯿﺔ ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻌﻠﺐ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻀﻌﮭﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﻜﯿﻨﺔ ﺑﺤﯿﺚ‬
‫ﻻﺗﺒﺪو ﺧﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﻜﻲ ﺗﻮﺣﻲ ﻟﻠﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ان اﻟﻌﻠﻚ ﯾﻐﯿﺮ دورﯾﺎ وھﻮ طﺎزج ﺗﻤﺎﻣﺎ‪ .‬اﻟﻤﻜﯿﻨﺔ ﺗﺴﺘﻮﻋﺐ ‪80‬‬
‫ﻋﻠﺒﺔ ﻋﻠﻚ وﻟﮭﺬا ﻓﺈن ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺗﻌﺒﺌﺔ اﻟﻤﻜﯿﻨﺔ ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﻧﻘﺼﺖ ﻋﻦ ‪ 40‬ﻋﻠﺒﺔ‪ .‬ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﺠﻤﯿﻊ ﺑﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﻋﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻜﯿﻨﺔ ﻛﻮن اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﻠﻄﻠﺐ اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻌﻠﻚ‬
‫‪Demand‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬ ‫‪0.30‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪم ‪ Excel‬ﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ھﺬا اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‬

‫أﻓﺘﺢ ﺻﻔﺤﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ Excel‬وأدﺧﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺨﻼﯾﺎ اﻟﻤﻮﺿﺤﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪1) A1 => Number of Days to sell 40 items‬‬
‫‪2) A4 => Day‬‬
‫‪3) B4 => Demand‬‬
‫‪4) C3 => Cumulative‬‬
‫‪5) C4 => Demand‬‬
‫‪6) A5 = 1‬‬
‫‪7) E4 => CDF‬‬
‫‪8) F4 => x‬‬
‫‪9) E5:E10 = 0 , 0.1 , 0.25 , 0.45 , 0.75 , 0.95‬‬
‫‪10) F5:F10 = 0 , 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5‬‬
‫)‪11) B5 = VLOOKUP(RAND( ),$E$5:$F$10,2‬‬
‫‪12) C5 = B5‬‬
‫)” ”‪13) A6 = IF(C5<40,A5+1,‬‬
‫)” ”‪14) B6 = IF(C5<40,VLOOKUP(RAND(),$E$5:$F$10,2),‬‬
‫)” ”‪15) C6 = IF(C5<40,B6+C5,‬‬
‫‪16) A7:A45 = A6‬‬
‫‪17) B7:B45 = B6‬‬
‫‪18) C7:C45 = C6‬‬
‫)‪19) D1= MAX(A5:A45‬‬
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‫ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ‪ :‬اﻟﺴﮭﻢ اﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ ﻟﻸﺳﻔﻞ ﯾﻌﻨﻲ إﺧﺘﯿﺎر اﻟﺨﻠﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺑﺠﺎﻧﺐ اﻟﺴﮭﻢ وﻧﺴﺨﮭﺎ ﺣﺘﻰ آﺧﺮ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺠﺎل‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﺘﻨﺘﺞ اﻟﺼﻔﺤﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬
‫اﺧﺘﺎر ‪ D1‬واﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﻔﺘﺎح )‪ (F9‬ﻓﺘﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻘﯿﻢ ﻓﻲ اﻷﻋﻤﺪة ‪ A‬و ‪ B‬و ‪ C‬وﻛﺬﻟﻚ اﻟﺨﻠﯿﺔ ‪D1‬‬
‫واﻷﺧﯿﺮة ﺗﻌﻄﻲ ﻋﺪد اﻷﯾﺎم اﻟﻼزﻣﺔ ﻟﺒﯿﻊ ‪ 40‬ﻋﻠﺒﺔ ﻋﻠﻚ‪ .‬ﺳﺠﻞ اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺠﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺨﻠﯿﺔ ‪ D1‬ﻟﻌﺪد ‪21‬‬
‫ﺗﺠﺮﺑﺔ وأوﺟﺪ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ واﻟﺘﺒﺎﯾﻦ ﻟﮭﺬه اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ وأوﺟﺪ ﺣﺪود ﺛﻘﺔ ‪.%95‬‬
‫ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﻣﺨﺮﺟﺎت اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪: Excel‬‬

‫ﺑﻀﻐﻂ اﻟﻤﻔﺘﺎح )‪ (F9‬ﯾﻘﻮم ‪ Excel‬ﺑﺈﻋﺎدة ﺣﺴﺎب ﺻﻔﺤﺔ اﻟﻌﻤﻞ وﯾﻨﺘﺞ ﻋﻦ ھﺬا إﺟﺮاء ﺟﺪﯾﺪ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺮة‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﻌﺪ اﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻧﻤﻮذج اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﺎﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب‪ ،‬ﻧﻘﻮم ﺑﺈﺟﺮاء اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﻋﺪد ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺮات وھﺬا‬
‫اﻟﻌﺪد ﯾﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺠﻢ اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻘﯿﺎس ﻣﻦ ﻣﻘﺎﯾﯿﺲ اﻹداء‪ ،‬وﺣﯿﺚ أن اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺗﺠﺮى‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺎﺳﺐ ﻓﺈﻧﮫ ﺑﺎﻹﻣﻜﺎن أﺧﺬ أﺣﺠﺎم ﻋﯿﻨﺎت ﻛﺒﯿﺮة ﺗﺒﻠﻎ اﻟﻤﺌﺎت ﺑﻞ اﻵﻻف ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻔﺮدات‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﺨﻄﻮة اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ھﻲ ﺗﻜﺮار إﺟﺮاء اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﻋﺪة ﻣﺌﺎت ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺮات وﺗﺴﺠﯿﻞ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ‬
‫اﻟﺨﻼﯾﺎ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺤﻮى ﻣﻘﺎﯾﯿﺲ اﻹداء اﻟﻤﺮاد ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠﮭﺎ‪ ،‬وﻟﻨﻔﺘﺮض اﻧﻨﺎ ﻧﺮﯾﺪ ‪ 150‬ﺗﻜﺮارا ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮذج‬
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‫وﺗﺨﺰﯾﻦ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺻﻔﺤﺔ ‪ Worksheet‬ﺟﺪﯾﺪة ﻣﻦ دﻓﺘﺮ اﻟﻌﻤﻞ ‪ Workbook‬وﻟﻨﺴﻤﯿﮭﺎ‬
‫‪ .Simulation‬ﻧﻘﻮم ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﺘﺴﻤﯿﺔ اﻟﺼﻔﺤﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ .1‬ﻧﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪.insert‬‬
‫‪ .2‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ اﻟﻈﺎھﺮة ﻧﺨﺘﺎر ‪ Worksheet‬ﻧﻼﺣﻆ أن ‪ Excel‬أﺿﺎف ﺻﻔﺤﺔ ﺟﺪﯾﺪة ﻟﺪﻓﺘﺮ اﻟﻌﻤﻞ‪.‬‬
‫‪ .3‬ﻧﻀﻐﻂ ‪.Format‬‬
‫‪ .4‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ اﻟﻈﺎھﺮة ﻧﻀﻐﻂ ‪.Worksheet‬‬
‫‪ .5‬وﻓﻲ اﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﻧﻀﻐﻂ ‪.Rename‬‬
‫‪ .6‬ﻧﻼﺣﻆ ان اﺳﻢ اﻟﻮرﻗﺔ اﺻﺒﺢ ﻣﺨﺘﺎرا ﻓﻨﻜﺘﺐ ‪ Simulation‬ﺑﺪل اﻹﺳﻢ اﻷﺻﻠﻲ‪.‬‬
‫‪ .7‬ﻧﻀﻐﻂ ‪.Enter‬‬
‫ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ‪ :‬ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ وﺟﻮد ﺻﻔﺤﺔ ﺧﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ دﻓﺘﺮ اﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻧﻌﯿﺪ ﺗﺴﻤﯿﺘﮭﺎ ﻓﻘﻂ وﻧﺒﺪأ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺨﻄﻮة ‪.3‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ اﻟﺼﻔﺤﺔ اﻟﺠﺪﯾﺪة اﻟﺘﻲ ﺳﻤﯿﻨﺎھﺎ ‪ Simulation‬ﻧﺪﺧﻞ اﻷرﻗﺎم ﻣﻦ ‪ 1‬إﻟﻰ ‪ 150‬ﻣﺒﺘﺪﺋﯿﻦ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺨﻠﯿﺔ‬
‫‪ A3‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﻣﻠﺊ اﻟﺨﻼﯾﺎ ﻣﻦ ‪ 1‬إﻟﻰ ‪ 150‬ذاﺗﯿﺎ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪ .1‬أﻛﺘﺐ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻷوﻟﯿﺔ )‪ (1‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﺨﻠﯿﺔ ‪ A3‬واﺿﻐﻂ ‪.Enter‬‬
‫‪ .2‬اﺧﺘﺎر اﻟﺨﻠﯿﺔ ‪.A3‬‬
‫‪ .3‬اﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ Edit‬ﺛﻢ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ ‪ Fill‬ﺛﻢ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ ‪.Series‬‬
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‫‪ .4‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﺼﻨﺪوق اﻟﻈﺎھﺮ اﺧﺘﺎر ‪ Series in Columns‬وادﺧﻞ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ‪ Stop value‬اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ ‪150.‬‬
‫‪ .5‬اﺿﻐﻂ ‪.OK‬‬
‫ﺳﯿﻤﻠﺊ ‪ Excel‬ذاﺗﯿﺎ اﻟﺨﻼﯾﺎ ﺗﺤﺖ ‪ A3‬ﺑﺎﻷرﻗﺎم ﺣﺘﻰ ‪.150‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﻧﺴﻤﻲ اﻟﺼﻔﺤﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺤﻮي اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ‪ Demand‬ﺑﺎﻟﻄﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺷﺮﺣﻨﺎھﺎ ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺎ‪ .‬ﻧﺮﯾﺪ ﻣﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ ﻋﺪد‬
‫اﻷﯾﺎم ﻟﺒﯿﻊ ‪ 40‬ﻗﻄﻌﺔ أي اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺨﻠﯿﺔ ‪ D1‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﺼﻔﺤﺔ اﻟﻤﺴﻤﺎة ‪ Demand‬ﻟﮭﺬا ﻧﻔﻌﻞ‬
‫اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ .1‬ﻧﺪﺧﻞ اﻟﺼﯿﻐﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺨﻠﯿﺔ ‪B3‬‬
‫‪=’Demand’!D1‬‬
‫‪ .2‬اﺧﺘﺎر اﻟﻤﺠﺎل ‪ A3‬وﺣﺘﻰ ‪.B152‬‬
‫‪ .3‬اﺿﻐﻂ ‪.Data‬‬
‫‪ .4‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ اﻟﻈﺎھﺮة اﺿﻐﻂ ‪ What-If-Analysis‬ﺛﻢ ‪ .Data Table‬ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫‪ .5‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻈﺎھﺮة ادﺧﻞ ‪ A1‬ﻓﻲ ‪.Column input cell‬‬
‫‪ .6‬اﺿﻐﻂ ‪.OK‬‬
‫‪ .7‬اﺿﻐﻂ ‪ F9‬ﻹﻋﺎدة ﺣﺴﺎب اﻟﺼﻔﺤﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﻼﺣﻆ اﻧﻨﺎ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺎ ﻧﻀﻐﻂ ‪ F9‬ﯾﻌﺎد ﺣﺴﺎب اﻟﺼﻔﺤﺔ وﻟﻜﻲ ﻧﺜﺒﺖ اﻟﻘﯿﻢ ﻟﻐﺮض ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﻧﻔﻌﻞ‬
‫‪ .1‬اﺧﺘﺎر اﻟﻤﺠﺎل ‪ B3‬وﺣﺘﻰ ‪.B152‬‬
‫‪ .2‬اﺿﻐﻂ ‪.Edit‬‬
‫‪ .3‬اﺿﻐﻂ ‪.Copy‬‬
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‫‪ .4‬اﺿﻐﻂ ‪.Edit‬‬
‫‪ .5‬اﺿﻐﻂ ‪.Paste Special‬‬
‫‪ .6‬اﺿﻐﻂ ‪.Values‬‬
‫‪ .7‬اﺿﻐﻂ ‪.OK‬‬
‫‪ .8‬اﺿﻐﻂ ‪.Enter‬‬
‫وھﻜﺬا ﺗﺼﺒﺢ اﻟﻘﯿﻢ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﻤﻮد ‪ B‬ارﻗﺎم ﺛﺎﺑﺘﺔ ﻻﺗﺘﻐﺮ ﺑﺈﻋﺎدة ﺣﺴﺎب اﻟﺼﻔﺤﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ‪ :‬ھﻨﺎك طﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﺧﺮى ﻟﺘﺜﺒﯿﺖ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ .1‬اﺿﻐﻂ ‪.Tools‬‬
‫‪ .2‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ اﻟﻈﺎھﺮة اﺿﻐﻂ ‪.Options‬‬
‫‪ .3‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻈﺎھﺮة اﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪.Calculation‬‬
‫‪ .4‬اﺧﺘﺎر ‪.Automatic Except Tables‬‬
‫‪ .5‬اﺿﻐﻂ ‪.OK‬‬
‫وﺗﻨﺘﺞ اﻟﺼﻔﺤﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
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‫ﻟﻜﻲ ﻧﺤﺴﺐ اﻟﺼﻔﺎت اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ ‪ Days‬ﻧﻌﻤﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﻓﺘﻈﮭﺮ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻹﺧﺘﯿﺎرات اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
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‫ﻧﺨﺘﺎر ‪ Descriptive Statistics‬ﻓﺘﻈﮭﺮ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة‬
‫ﻋﺒﺊ اﻟﻔﺮاﻏﺎت ﻛﻤﺎ ھﻮ ﻣﺒﯿﻦ ﻓﯿﻨﺘﺞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
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‫ﻧﺨﺘﺒﺮ اﻵن اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ أن ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﺪد اﻷﯾﺎم اﻻزﻣﺔ ﻟﺒﯿﻊ ‪ 40‬ﻋﻠﺒﺔ ﻋﻠﻚ ھﻲ ‪ µ = 16‬أي‬
‫‪H 0 : µ = 16‬‬
‫‪H1 : µ ≠ 16‬‬
‫ﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر ھﺬه اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ ﻧﻮﺟﺪ اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﺔ ) ˆ‪ t = ( µˆ − µ 0 ) se ( µ‬وﻧﻌﻤﻞ ذﻟﻚ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪1) C19 => t‬‬
‫‪2) C20 => p-value‬‬
‫‪3) D19 = (E3-16)/E4‬‬
‫)‪4) D20 = TDIST(D19,20,2‬‬
‫ﻛﻤﺎﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
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‫اﺿﻐﻂ ‪ OK‬ﻓﺘﻨﺘﺞ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ ان اﻟـ ‪ p-value‬ﺗﺴﺎوي ‪ 0.7368‬أي أن ‪ P ( t ≥ 0.34075 ) = 0.7368‬أو ﺑﻤﻌﻨﻰ آﺧﺮ ﺑﻤﺎ ان‬
‫ﻗﯿﻤﺔ اﻟـ ‪ p-value‬أﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ ‪ α = 0.05‬ﻓﺈﻧﻨﺎ ﻻﻧﺮﻓﺾ اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ اﻟﺼﻔﺮﯾﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ‪. α = 0.05‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪ :2‬ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة طﺎﺑﻮر اﻟﺼﻒ اﻟﻮاﺣﺪ ‪ Single Channel Queue‬ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام‬

‫‪:Excel‬‬
‫اﻓﺘﺢ ﺻﻔﺤﺔ ﺟﺪﯾﺪة ﻓﻲ ‪ Excel‬وأدﺧﻞ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﻛﻤﺎ ھﻮ ﻣﻮﺿﺢ‬
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‫ﺑﻌﺪ إدﺧﺎل اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ وﺑﺎﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻔﺘﺎح ‪ F9‬ﺗﻨﺘﺞ اﻟﺼﻔﺤﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬
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‫ﺑﺎﻟﻀﻐﻂ اﻟﻤﺘﻜﺮر ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻔﺘﺎح ‪ F9‬ﺗﻌﺎد ﺣﺴﺎب اﻟﺼﻔﺤﺔ وﺗﺘﻜﺮر اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة وﺗﻨﺘﺞ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺮة ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ‬
‫ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺳﺠﻞ ﻣﻘﺎﯾﯿﺲ اﻷداء ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم ﻟﻌﺪد ‪ 21‬إﺟﺮاء وأﺧﺘﺒﺮ ﻓﺮﺿﯿﺎت ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺜﺎل اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪ :3‬ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة أﺣﻤﺪ وﺑﻜﺮ ﻟﻠﺨﺪﻣﺔ اﻟﺴﺮﯾﻌﺔ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪:Excel‬‬

‫أﻓﺘﺢ ﺻﻔﺤﺔ ﺟﺪﯾﺪة ﻓﻲ ‪ Excel‬وأدﺧﻞ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﻓﻲ اﻟﺨﻼﯾﺎ ‪ A1:F6‬ﻛﻤﺎ ھﻮ ﻣﻮﺿﺢ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪:‬‬
‫أدﺧﻞ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺨﻼﯾﺎ ‪ G1:G104‬اﻷرﻗﺎم ‪ 1:104‬ﺛﻢ ادﺧﻞ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻛﻤﺎھﻮ ﻣﻮﺿﺢ‪:‬‬

‫)‪H3=> =VLOOKUP(RAND(),$A$3:$B$6,2‬‬
‫‪I3=> =H3‬‬
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I4=> =I3+H4
J3=> =I3
J4=> =IF(L3<=I4,I4,"")
J5=>
=IF(AND(MAX(L$3:L4)<=MAX(O$3:O4),MAX(L$3:L4)>=I5),MAX(L$3:L4),IF(MAX(L$3:L4)<=I
5,I5,""))
K3=> =VLOOKUP(RAND(),$C$3:$D$6,2)
K4=> =IF(J4="","",VLOOKUP(RAND(),$C$3:$D$6,2))
L3=> =J3+K3
L4=> =IF(J4="","",K4+J4)
M4=> =IF(J4="",I4,"")
M5=>
=IF(J5<>"","",IF(AND(MAX(L$3:L4)>MAX(O$3:O4),MAX(O$3:O4)>=I5),MAX(O$3:O4),IF(MAX
(L$3:L4)>I5,I5,"")))
N4=> =IF(M4="","",VLOOKUP(RAND(),$E$3:$F$6,2))
O4=> =IF(M4="","",M4+N4)
P3=> =IF(J3<>"",J3-I3,M3-I3)
E10=> =SUM(K3:K102)
E11=> =SUM(N3:N102)
E12=> =SUM(P3:P102)
E14=> =E10/MAX(L3:L102)
E15=> =E11/MAX(O3:O102)
E16=> =E12/MAX(G3:G102)
‫ﻓﺘﻨﺘﺞ اﻻﺷﻜﺎل اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬
73
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻔﺘﺎح ‪ F9‬ﺗﻨﺘﺞ اﻟﺼﻔﺤﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪74‬‬
‫ﻣﺸﺎھﺪة اﺧﺮى‪:‬‬
‫ﺗﻤﺮﯾﻦ‪ :‬أوﺟﺪ ﻣﻘﺎﯾﯿﺲ اﻷداء ﻟﮭﺬا اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج وأﺧﺘﺒﺮ ﻓﺮﺿﯿﺎت ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺜﺎل اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪ :4‬ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺑﺎﺋﻊ اﻟﺼﺤﻒ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪:Excel‬‬
‫أدﺧﻞ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﻛﻤﺎ ھﻮ ﻣﻮﺿﺢ ﻓﻲ اﻷﺷﻜﺎل اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪75‬‬
‫ﻓﺘﻈﮭﺮ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺗﻤﺎرﯾﻦ‪:‬‬
‫‪ (1‬ﻏﯿﺮ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺼﺤﻒ اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺸﺘﺮﯾﮭﺎ ﺑﺎﺋﻊ اﻟﺼﺤﻒ ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ ﻣﻦ ‪ 40‬ﺻﺤﯿﻔﺔ ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ وﺣﺘﻰ ‪100‬‬
‫ﺻﺤﯿﻔﺔ ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ ) ﺑﺰﯾﺎدة ‪ 10‬ﺻﺤﻒ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺮة ( وﺣﺪد اﻟﻌﺪد اﻷﻣﺜﻞ ﻟﻌﺪد اﻟﺼﺤﻒ اﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫ﯾﺸﺘﺮﯾﮭﺎ ﺑﺎﺋﻊ اﻟﺼﺤﻒ ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (2‬ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺤﺎوﻟﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺤﺎوﻻت اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ أﺟﺮي اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪ 50‬ﻣﺮة وأوﺟﺪ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺮﺑﺢ اﻟﺼﺎﻓﻲ ‪.Net Profit‬‬
‫‪ (3‬ﻏﯿﺮ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻌﺎت اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪ ،‬وأﺟﺮي ﺗﺠﺎرب إﺳﺘﻜﺸﺎﻓﯿﺔ ﻋﻠﻲ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪ :5‬ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻧﻈﺎم ﺗﺨﺰﯾﻦ )‪ (M,N‬ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪: Excel‬‬

‫اﻷﺷﻜﺎل اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﺗﻮﺿﺢ طﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻧﻈﺎم اﻟﺘﺨﺰﯾﻦ اﻟﻤﺬﻛﻮر ﻓﻲ ﻣﺜﺎل ‪ 6‬ﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ ‪Excel‬‬
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77
‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪ :6‬ﻛﻢ ﯾﻜﺴﺐ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﻮل‪:‬‬
‫ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ طﺒﯿﻌﻲ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 20‬﷼ وإﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﯿﺎري ‪ 3‬﷼ ﺑﯿﻨﻤﺎ ذﻟﻚ ﻟﻠﺮﺟﺎل ﯾﺘﺒﻊ اﯾﻀﺎ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ‬
‫طﺒﯿﻌﻲ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 10‬﷼ وإﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﯿﺎري ‪ 2‬﷼‪) .‬إذا ﻋﻠﻤﺖ أن اﻟﻤﺘﺴﻮﻟﺔ ﺗﻐﻄﻲ ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 10‬إﻟﻰ‬
‫‪ 15‬ﻣﻨﺰﻻ ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ ﺑﻨﻔﺲ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎل( ﻓﻘﺪر ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ دﺧﻠﮭﺎ )اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ( )ﻓﻲ زﯾﺎرة ﻟﻌﺪد ‪ 200‬ﻣﻨﺰل‪(.‬‬
‫أدﺧﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺻﻔﺤﺔ ﻧﺸﺮ‬
‫ﻧﺠﺮي اﻟﻤﺤﻜﺎة ‪ 200‬وﻧﺴﺠﻞ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‬
‫‪78‬‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﻧﺘﯿﺠﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻧﺠﺪ أن اﻟﻤﺘﺴﻮﻟﺔ ﺗﺠﻤﻊ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 233‬و ‪ 242‬﷼ ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ وﺑﺈﺣﺘﻤﺎل ‪. 95%‬‬
‫‪ (1‬أﺟﺮي اﻟﻤﺜﺎل اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺑﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻛﻤﯿﺔ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻷﻋﻈﻢ ‪Maximum Inventory‬‬
‫‪ Level‬واﻟﻜﻤﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻌﺎد طﻠﺒﮭﺎ ‪Reorder Quantity‬‬
‫‪ (2‬ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ إﺟﺮاء أوﺟﺪ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﻟﻮﺣﺪات اﻟﺒﺎﻗﯿﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون وﻋﺪد اﻷﯾﺎم اﻟﺘﻲ ﺣﺪث ﻓﯿﮭﺎ‬
‫ﻧﻘﺺ وﻋﺪد اﻟﻮﺣﺪات اﻟﻨﺎﻗﺼﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (3‬أوﺟﺪ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻌﺎت اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻜﻤﯿﺎت اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻔﻘﺮة )‪ (2‬اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ وأﺧﺘﺒﺮ اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺎت‬
‫اﻟﻤﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ‪.‬‬
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‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ‪:‬‬
‫ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ أرﻗﺎم ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺳﻮف ﻧﺴﺘﻌﺮض وﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺳﺮﯾﻊ ﻷﺣﺪ اﻟﻄﺮق اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ أرﻗﺎم ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ‬
‫وذﻟﻚ ﻷن ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﻛﻤﺎ رأﯾﻨﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻔﺼﻮل اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻣﮭﻢ ﺟﺪا ﻓﻲ إﺟﺮاء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﺮﺿﻨﺎ اﻟﺴﺮﯾﻊ ﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ھﻨﺎ ھﻮ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻹﻋﻄﺎء ﻓﻜﺮة ﻋﻦ اﻟﻄﺮق اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫اﻟﺤﺎﺳﺒﺎت اﻟﯿﺪوﯾﺔ واﻟﺤﺎﺳﺒﺎت اﻵﻟﯿﺔ واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم طﺮق ﻣﺘﻄﻮرة ﺟﺪا وﺧﻮارزﻣﺎت ﻣﻌﻘﺪة ﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ‬
‫اﻷرﻗﺎم واﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ واﻟﺘﻲ اﺻﺒﺤﺖ ﻋﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﺠﻮدة وﺗﻌﻄﻲ أﻋﺪاد وﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮات ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ‬
‫ذات ﻣﻮﺛﻮﻗﯿﺔ ﻛﺒﯿﺮة‪.‬‬
‫ﺧﻮاص اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫أي ﻣﺘﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ‪ R1 , R2 ,...,‬ﯾﺠﺐ ان ﺗﺤﻘﻖ ﺧﺎﺻﯿﺘﯿﻦ إﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ ﻣﮭﻤﺔ وھﻲ‬
‫اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎوي واﻹﺳﺘﻘﺮار‪ .‬ﻛﻞ رﻗﻢ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ‪ Ri‬ھﻮ ﻋﺒﺎرة ﻋﻦ ﻋﯿﻨﺔ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ ﻣﺴﺤﻮﺑﺔ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﺘﺴﺎوي ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 0‬و ‪ 1‬أي ان داﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﮫ ﺗﺘﺒﻊ اﻟﺼﯿﻐﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪1, 0 ≤ x ≤ 1‬‬
‫‪f ( x) = ‬‬
‫‪0, otherwise‬‬
‫واﻟﺘﻲ ﻟﮭﺎ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪1.2‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪0.8‬‬
‫)‪f(x‬‬
‫‪0.6‬‬
‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪0.2‬‬
‫‪0‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1.2‬‬
‫‪x‬‬
‫اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ‪ Ri‬ھﻲ‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪x2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫= ‪E ( R ) = ∫ xdx‬‬ ‫=‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪2 0 2‬‬
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‫وﺗﺒﺎﯾﻦ‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪x3‬‬ ‫‪1 1 1 1‬‬
‫= ‪V ( R ) = ∫ x dx −  E ( R ) ‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫= ‪−  = −‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪3 0  2  3 4 12‬‬
‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﺨﻮاص اﻟﻤﮭﻤﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎوي واﻹﺳﺘﻘﻼل ھﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪ (1‬إذا ﻗﺴﻤﺖ اﻟﻔﺘﺮة )‪ (0,1‬إﻟﻰ ‪ n‬ﻓﺌﺔ ذات أطﻮال ﻣﺘﺴﺎوﯾﺔ ﻓﺈن ﻋﺪد اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻛﻞ ﻓﺌﺔ ھﻲ ‪ N n‬ﺣﯿﺚ ‪ N‬ﻋﺪد اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات اﻟﻜﻠﻲ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (2‬إﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﻣﺸﺎھﺪة ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻓﺘﺮة ﻣﻌﯿﻨﺔ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ ﻋﻦ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ أرﻗﺎم ﺷﺒﮫ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫اﻷرﻗﺎم ﺷﺒﮫ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ‪ Pseudo-Random Numbers‬ھﻲ أرﻗﺎم ﻟﮭﺎ ﺧﻮاص اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ‬
‫وﻟﻜﻨﮭﺎ ﺗﻮﻟﺪ ﺑﺼﯿﻎ رﯾﺎﺿﯿﺔ ﻣﺤﺪدة إذ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻧﻔﺲ اﻟﻤﺘﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻷرﻗﺎم ﻛﯿﻒ ﻧﺸﺎء‪ .‬ﻟﻜﻲ ﻧﻮﻟﺪ‬
‫أرﻗﺎم ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﺣﻘﯿﻘﯿﺔ ﻻﺑﺪ ﻣﻦ إﺳﺘﺨﺪام آﻟﯿﺔ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﺑﺤﺘﺔ ﻣﺜﻞ ﻛﺘﺎﺑﺔ اﻷرﻗﺎم ﻣﻦ ‪ 0‬إﻟﻰ ‪ 9‬ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫أوراق او ﻛﺮات وﺧﻠﻄﮭﺎ ﺟﯿﺪا وﺳﺤﺐ ورﻗﺔ او ﻛﺮة ﻣﻨﮭﺎ وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ أرﻗﺎم ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﺣﻘﯿﻘﯿﺔ‬
‫ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﻧﻜﺘﺐ اﻷرﻗﺎم ﻣﻦ ‪ 0‬إﻟﻰ ‪ 9‬ﻋﻠﻰ أوراق وﺗﻮﺿﻊ ﻓﻲ وﻋﺎء وﺑﻌﺪ اﻟﺨﻠﻂ اﻟﺠﯿﺪ ﻟﻸوراق ﻧﺴﺤﺐ ورﻗﺔ‬
‫وﻟﯿﻜﻦ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ اﻟﺮﻗﻢ ‪ 9‬ﻧﺨﻠﻂ اﻷوراق ﻣﺮة اﺧﺮى ﺟﯿﺪا ﺑﻌﺪ إﻋﺎدة اﻟﻮرﻗﺔ اﻟﻤﺴﺤﻮﺑﺔ وﻧﺴﺤﺐ ورﻗﺔ‬
‫اﺧﺮى وﻟﯿﻜﻦ اﻟﺮﻗﻢ اﻟﻤﻜﺘﻮب ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ ‪ 4‬وھﻜﺬا ﻧﺴﺤﺐ ﺑﻨﻔﺲ اﻟﻄﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ اوراق اﺧﺮى وﻟﺘﻜﻦ ‪ 7‬و‬
‫‪ 3‬و ‪ 7‬ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﻮاﻟﻲ اﻵن ﻧﻜﻮن اﻟﺮﻗﻢ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ اﻷول وھﻮ ‪ 0.94737‬وھﻜﺬا ﻧﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﺣﺘﻰ ﻧﻮﻟﺪ‬
‫اﻟﻌﺪد اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﻣﻦ اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ‪ .‬واﺿﺢ ﺟﺪا ان ھﺬه اﻟﻄﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﻏﯿﺮ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺔ وﺗﺤﺘﺎج إﻟﻰ وﻗﺖ‬
‫وﺟﮭﺪ ﻛﺒﯿﺮ ﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻋﺪد ﺑﺴﯿﻂ ﻣﻦ اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ‪ ،‬ﻟﮭﺬا ﻛﺎن ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﮭﻢ ﺟﺪا إﯾﺠﺎد طﺮق اﺧﺮى‬
‫ﺳﺮﯾﻌﺔ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﺑﺮﻣﺠﺘﮭﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺤﺎﺳﺒﺎت ﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ اﻋﺪاد ﻛﺒﯿﺮة ﻣﻦ اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫أﺣﺪ ھﺬه اﻟﻄﺮق ھﻲ‪:‬‬
‫طﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﺘﻄﺎﺑﻖ اﻟﺨﻄﻲ ‪Linear Congruential Method‬‬
‫ھﺬه اﻟﻄﺮﯾﻘﺔ وﺗﺮاﻛﯿﺒﮭﺎ ﺗﻌﻄﻲ اﻟﻤﺘﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ اﻟﻌﺪدﯾﺔ ‪ X 1 , X 2 ,...,‬ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺼﻔﺮ و ‪ m − 1‬ﺣﺴﺐ اﻟﺼﯿﻐﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺘﻜﺮارﯾﺔ‬
‫‪X i +1 = ( aX i + c ) mod m, i = 0,1, 2,...‬‬
‫اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻷوﻟﯿﺔ ‪ X 0‬ﺗﺴﻤﻰ اﻟﻨﻮاة ‪ Seed‬واﻟﺜﺎﺑﺖ ‪ a‬ﯾﺴﻤﻰ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ اﻟﺘﻀﺎﻋﻒ و اﻟﺜﺎﺑﺖ ‪ c‬ﯾﺴﻤﻰ‬
‫اﻟﺰﯾﺎدة و ‪ m‬ﯾﺴﻤﻰ اﻟﻘﯿﺎس ‪ . Modulus‬ﻻﺣﻆ أن ‪ a = b mod m‬ﯾﻌﻨﻲ ان ) ‪ ( a − b‬ﯾﻘﺴﻢ ‪m‬‬
‫‪81‬‬
‫ﺑﺪون ﺑﺎﻗﻲ‪ .‬إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ‪ c ≠ 0‬ﺗﺴﻤﻰ اﻟﻤﻌﺎدﻟﺔ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ طﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﺘﻄﺎﺑﻖ اﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻂ وﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﻜﻮن ‪c = 0‬‬
‫ﺗﺴﻤﻰ طﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﺘﻄﺎﺑﻖ اﻟﺘﻀﺎﻋﻔﻲ‪.‬‬

‫إن إﺧﺘﯿﺎر اﻟﻘﯿﻢ ‪ X 0‬و ‪ a‬و ‪ c‬و ‪ m‬ﯾﺆﺛﺮ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺒﯿﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺨﻮاص اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ ﻟﻸرﻗﺎم اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻟﺪة‬
‫وﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﻰ طﻮل اﻟﺪورة ‪ Cycle Length‬واﻟﺘﻲ ﺳﻨﺸﺮﺣﮭﺎ ﻻﺣﻘﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل‪) :‬ﻣﺜﺎل ‪ 8.1‬ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺮﺟﻊ )‪((4‬‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪم طﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﺘﻄﺎﺑﻖ اﻟﺨﻄﻲ ﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﺘﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﺑﺄﺧﺬ اﻟﻘﯿﻢ‬
‫‪X 0 = 27, a = 17, c = 43, m = 100‬‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ ان اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﺘﻲ ﺳﺘﻮﻟﺪ ﺳﺘﻜﻮن ﻣﻮزﻋﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺴﺎوي ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 0‬و‪ 99‬ﻷن ) ‪ ( m − 1 = 99‬ﻻﺣﻆ اﯾﻀﺎ‬
‫ان اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻟﺪ أﻋﺪاد ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ وﻟﯿﺴﺖ أرﻗﺎم وﻟﻜﻲ ﻧﻮﻟﺪ ﻣﻦ ھﺬه اﻟﻤﺘﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ أرﻗﺎم ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﻟﮭﺎ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ‬
‫ﻣﺘﺴﺎوي ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 0‬و ‪ 1‬ﻧﻮﺟﺪ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪Xi‬‬
‫= ‪Ri‬‬ ‫‪, i = 1, 2,...‬‬
‫‪m‬‬
‫ﺗﺤﺴﺐ اﻟﻤﺘﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪X 0 = 27‬‬
‫‪X 1 = (17 × 27 + 43) mod 100 = 502 mod 100 = 2‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫= ‪R1‬‬ ‫‪= 0.02‬‬
‫‪100‬‬
‫‪X 2 = (17 × 2 + 43) mod 100 = 77 mod 100 = 77‬‬
‫‪77‬‬
‫= ‪R2‬‬ ‫‪= 0.77‬‬
‫‪100‬‬
‫‪M‬‬
‫وھﻜﺬا‪...‬‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ اﻷرﻗﺎم ﺷﺒﮫ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻮﻟﺪة ﺑﻄﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﺘﻄﺎﺑﻖ اﻟﺨﻄﻰ او ﻏﯿﺮھﺎ ان ﺗﺤﻘﻖ ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ إﻟﻰ‬
‫واﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﺧﺎﺻﯿﺘﻲ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎوي واﻹﺳﺘﻘﻼل ﺧﺎﺻﯿﺔ اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﻌﻈﻤﻰ ‪Maximum Density‬‬
‫ﺗﻌﻨﻲ ان اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺄﺧﺬھﺎ ‪ Ri , i = 1, 2,...‬ﻻﺗﺘﺮك ﺛﻐﺮات ﻛﺒﯿﺮة ﻓﻲ اﻟﻔﺘﺮة ]‪ . [ 0,1‬وﺧﺎﺻﯿﺔ اﻟﺪورة‬
‫اﻟﻌﻈﻤﻰ ‪ Maximum Period or Cycle‬اﻟﺘﻲ ﻧﻔﺴﺮھﺎ ﺑﻤﻼﺣﻈﺔ ان اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻤﻮﻟﺪة ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان‬
‫‪1 2‬‬ ‫‪m −1‬‬
‫‪ 0, , ,...,‬ﻓﻘﻂ ﻓﺈذا ﺗﻜﺮر اي رﻗﻢ ﻓﺈن اﻟﻤﺘﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﺗﺘﻜﺮر ﻣﻦ ﺟﺪﯾﺪ‬ ‫ﺗﺄﺧﺬ اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﻤﺤﺪودة‬
‫‪m m‬‬ ‫‪m‬‬
‫وﻟﮭﺬا ﻓﺈن أﻋﻈﻢ دورة ﻟﻠﻄﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ھﻲ ‪ m‬وﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮل ﻋﻠﻰ أﻋﻈﻢ دورة ﯾﺠﺐ إﺧﺘﯿﺎر ﻗﯿﻢ ‪X 0‬‬
‫و ‪ a‬و ‪ c‬و ‪ m‬ﺑﻌﻨﺎﯾﺔ ﺷﺪﯾﺪة وﻟﮭﺬا ﺗﺆﺧﺬ ﻗﯿﻢ ‪ m‬ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ m = 231 − 1‬وﻣﺜﻞ ھﺬه اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻓﻲ اﻟﺤﺎﺳﺒﺎت ﻛﻤﺎ ﯾﺠﺐ ان ﺗﻜﻮن ‪ c‬و ‪) m‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ‪ ( c ≠ 0‬اوﻟﯿﯿﻦ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﺒﻌﻀﮭﻤﺎ )اي‬
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‫ﻻﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﻛﺔ ﺑﯿﻨﮭﻤﺎ( وﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﯾﺠﺐ ان ﺗﻜﻮن ‪ X 0‬ﻋﺪد ﻓﺮدي و ‪ a‬ﺗﺄﺧﺬ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻣﺜﻞ‬
‫‪ a = 1 + 4k , a = 3 + 8k , a = 5 + 8k‬ﻟﻠﺮﻗﻢ ‪ . k = 0,1,...‬ﺳﻮف ﻻﻧﺘﻮﺳﻊ ﻛﺜﯿﺮا ﻓﻲ ﻣﻮﺿﻮع ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ‬
‫اﻷرﻗﺎم ﺷﺒﮫ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ وﻧﺘﻄﺮق ﻟﺒﻌﺾ اﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎرات اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺠﺮى ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ ﻟﻠﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻧﮭﺎ ﺗﺤﻮى‬
‫اﻟﺨﻮاص اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ‪.‬‬
‫إﺧﺘﺒﺎرات ﻟﻸرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ‪:‬‬

‫ھﻨﺎك ﻋﺪد ﻛﺒﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎرات اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺠﺮى ﻋﻠﻰ اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻮاﺻﮭﺎ اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ‬
‫واﻟﺘﻲ ھﻲ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎوي ‪ Uniformity‬واﻹﺳﺘﻘﻼل ‪ Independence‬وﻋﻠﯿﮫ ﻓﺈن‬
‫اﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎرات اﻟﺘﻲ ﺳﻮف ﻧﺴﺘﻌﺮﺿﮭﺎ ﺗﻨﻘﺴﻢ إﻟﻰ ﻗﺴﻤﯿﻦ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﻘﺴﻢ اﻷول ﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎوي وھﻮ إﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﺘﻜﺮار ‪Frequency Test‬‬
‫اﻟﻘﺴﻢ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻹﺳﺘﻘﻼل وﯾﺘﻜﻮن ﻣﻦ إﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﺠﺮي ‪ Runs Test‬وإﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﺘﺮاﺑﻂ اﻟﺬاﺗﻲ‬
‫‪. Autocorrelation Test‬‬
‫إﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎوي‪:‬‬

‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﺨﺘﺒﺮ اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ‬
‫‪H 0 : Ri‬‬ ‫]‪distributed as U [ 0,1‬‬
‫‪H1 : Ri‬‬ ‫]‪is not distributed as U [ 0,1‬‬
‫ﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر ھﺬه اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪم إﻣﺎ إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻛﻮﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮروف – ﺳﻤﯿﺮﻧﻮف ‪Kolmogrov-‬‬

‫‪ Smirnov Test‬أو إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻛﺎي ‪Chi-square Test‬‬
‫‪ -1‬إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻛﻮﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮروف – ﺳﻤﯿﺮﻧﻮف ‪Kolmogrov-Smirnov Test‬‬
‫ھﺬا اﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﯾﻘﺎرن ﺑﯿﻦ داﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺮاﻛﻤﻲ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻤﺮة ) ‪ F ( x‬ﻟﻠﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎوي وداﻟﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺮاﻛﻤﻲ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﻲ ‪ Empirical CDF‬ﻟﻠﻌﯿﻨﺔ ) ‪ S N ( x‬ﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ ﺣﺠﻤﮭﺎ ‪. N‬‬

‫ﻓﻤﻦ اﻟﺘﻌﺮﯾﻒ ﻧﺠﺪ‬
‫‪F ( x ) = x, 0 ≤ x ≤ 1‬‬
‫وﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻮﻟﺪة ‪ R1 , R2 ,..., RN‬ﻓﺈن داﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺮاﻛﻤﻲ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﻲ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻌﯿﻨﺔ ) ‪ S N ( x‬ﺗﻌﺮف ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫‪number of R1 , R2 ,..., RN which are ≤ x‬‬
‫= ) ‪SN ( x‬‬
‫‪N‬‬
‫‪83‬‬
‫وإذا رﺗﺒﺖ اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻮﻟﺪة ‪ R1 , R2 ,..., RN‬ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ ) ‪ R(1) , R( 2) ,..., R( N‬ﺑﺤﯿﺚ‬
‫) ‪ R(1) ≤ R( 2) ≤ ... ≤ R( N‬ﻓﺈن‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪ 0,‬‬ ‫)‪x < R(1‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪k‬‬
‫‪SN ( x ) =  ,‬‬ ‫‪R( k ) ≤ x < R( k +1) , k = 1, 2,..., N‬‬
‫‪N‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪ 1,‬‬ ‫) ‪x ≥ R( N‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ اﻧﮫ ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﺗﻜﺒﺮ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ‪ N‬ﻓﺈن ) ‪ S N ( x‬ﺗﺼﺒﺢ اﻛﺜﺮ ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺒﺎ ﻟﻠﺪاﻟﺔ ) ‪ F ( x‬ﻋﻠﻰ أﺳﺎس ﺻﺤﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ اﻟﺼﻔﺮﯾﺔ‪ .‬داﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺮاﻛﻤﻲ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻟﻠﻌﯿﻨﺔ ھﻲ داﻟﺔ درﺟﯿﺔ ‪Step Function‬‬
‫ذات ﻗﻔﺰات ﻋﻨﺪ ﻛﻞ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪة )ﺳﻮف ﻧﺸﺮﺣﮭﺎ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﻔﺼﻞ ﻓﻲ ﻓﺼﻞ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼت(‬
‫وﻟﮭﺬا ﻓﺈن اﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﯾﻔﺤﺺ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻘﺔ ﻷﻛﺒﺮ إﻧﺤﺮاف ﺑﯿﻦ ) ‪ F ( x‬و ) ‪ S N ( x‬أي اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﺔ‬
‫) ‪D = max F ( x ) − S N ( x‬‬
‫اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻌﯿﻨﻲ ﻟﻺﺣﺼﺎﺋﺔ ‪ D‬ﻣﻌﺮوف وﻣﺠﺪول وﻟﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺳﻮف ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﺼﯿﻐﺔ اﻟﺘﻘﺎرﺑﯿﺔ‬
‫‪ Asymptotic Formula‬ﻟﻺﺣﺼﺎﺋﺔ ‪ D‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﻜﻮن ‪ N ≥ 35‬ﻷن ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻋﯿﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻻرﻗﺎم‬
‫اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ اﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪ 35‬ﻷي ﻣﻮﻟﺪ ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﻨﺼﻔﺔ ﻟﮫ‪.‬‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﻺﺣﺼﺎﺋﺔ ‪D‬‬
‫‪N‬‬ ‫‪D0.10‬‬ ‫‪D0.05‬‬ ‫‪D0.01‬‬
‫‪1.22‬‬ ‫‪1.36‬‬ ‫‪1.63‬‬

‫‪≥ 35‬‬
‫‪N‬‬ ‫‪N‬‬ ‫‪N‬‬
‫ﻹﺟﺮاء اﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﺗﺤﺖ ﻓﺮﺿﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎوي ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﺨﻮارزم اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫ﺧﻄﻮة )‪ : (1‬رﺗﺐ اﻷرﻗﺎم ﺗﺼﺎﻋﺪﯾﺎ‪ .‬ﻓﺈذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ) ‪ R(i‬ھﻲ اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪة اﻟﺘﻲ رﺗﺒﺘﮭﺎ ‪ i‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﺼﻐﺮ ﻓﺈن‬
‫اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﯾﻜﻮن ) ‪R(1) ≤ R( 2) ≤ L ≤ R( N‬‬
‫ﺧﻄﻮة )‪ : (2‬أﺣﺴﺐ اﻟﻜﻤﯿﺎت‬

‫‪i‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪D + = max  − R(i ) ‬‬
‫‪1≤ i ≤ N‬‬
‫‪N‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪i − 1‬‬
‫‪D − = max  R( i ) −‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪1≤i ≤ N‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪N ‬‬
‫ﺧﻄﻮة )‪ : (3‬أﺣﺴﺐ اﻟﻜﻤﯿﺔ ) ‪D = max ( D + , D −‬‬
‫‪84‬‬
‫ﺧﻄﻮة )‪ : (4‬ﺣﺪد اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺤﺮﺟﺔ ‪ Dα‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻟﻘﯿﻢ ﻣﻌﯿﻨﺔ ﻟﻤﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﻌﻨﻮﯾﺔ ‪ α‬وﻟﻠﺤﺠﻢ‬
‫اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ ‪N ≥ 35‬‬
‫ﺧﻄﻮة )‪ : (5‬إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺴﻮﺑﺔ ﻟﻺﺣﺼﺎﺋﺔ ‪ D‬اﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﺠﺪوﻟﺔ ‪ Dα‬ﻓﺈﻧﻨﺎ ﻧﺮﻓﺾ‬
‫اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ اﻟﺼﻔﺮﯾﺔ ﺑﺄن اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻮﻟﺪة ﺗﺘﺒﻊ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎوي وإﻻ ﻓﺈﻧﻨﺎ ﻧﺴﺘﻨﺘﺞ اﻧﻨﺎ ﻟﻢ‬
‫ﻧﻜﺘﺸﻒ ﻓﺮق ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﻲ ﻟﻸرﻗﺎم } ‪ { R1 , R2 ,..., RN‬واﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎوي‪.‬‬
‫إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻛﻮﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮروف – ﺳﻤﯿﺮﻧﻮف ‪ Kolmogrov-Smirnov Test‬ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام‬

‫‪: Excel‬‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﺴﺘﻌﺮض ھﺬا اﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﯿﻦ ‪) Excel‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﺔ ھﺬا إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻟﻤﻮﻟﺪ اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ‪ ( Excel‬ﻓﻲ ﺻﻔﺤﺔ ﺟﺪﯾﺪة ﻣﻦ ‪ Excel‬أدﺧﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪85‬‬
‫ﻓﺘﻨﺘﺞ اﻷرﻗﺎم ﺷﺒﮫ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﻧﺮﺗﺐ اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺠﺔ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪86‬‬
‫أدﺧﻞ اﻟﺼﯿﻎ ﻛﻤﺎھﻮ ﻣﻮﺿﺢ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫وﻧﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ ان ﻧﺘﯿﺠﺔ اﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻣﻮﺟﺒﺔ أي اﻧﻨﺎ ﻟﻢ ﻧﻜﺘﺸﻒ ﻓﺮق ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﻲ ﻟﻸرﻗﺎم‬
‫} ‪ { R1 , R2 ,..., R1000‬واﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎوي‪.‬‬
‫ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﺣﺴﺎب ﻗﯿﻢ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻟﻔﻌﻠﯿﺔ ﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر ‪ K-S‬ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﺼﯿﻎ‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪0.11  ‬‬
‫‪P ( D > Dobs ) = Q   N + 0.12 +‬‬ ‫‪ D , N ≥ 2‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪N ‬‬
‫∞‬
‫‪j −1‬‬ ‫‪2 2‬‬
‫‪Q ( λ ) = 2∑ ( −1) e −2 j λ‬‬
‫‪j =1‬‬
‫واﻟﺘﻲ ﻧﺤﺴﺒﮭﺎ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪ Excel‬ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪87‬‬
‫ﺑﻮﺿﻊ ﻗﯿﻢ ﻟﺪرﺟﺎت اﻟﺤﺮﯾﺔ ‪ N‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﺨﻠﯿﺔ ‪ D3‬واﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺴﻮﺑﺔ ‪ Dobs‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﺨﻠﯿﺔ ‪ D4‬ﻧﺤﺼﻞ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﯿﻢ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻟﻔﻌﻠﯿﺔ ‪ p-value‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﺨﻠﯿﺔ ‪ D6‬ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -2‬إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻛﺎي ‪Chi-square Test‬‬

‫إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻛﺎي ﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﺔ‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫∑ = ‪χ 02‬‬
‫) ‪( Oi − Ei‬‬
‫‪i =1‬‬ ‫‪Ei‬‬
‫‪ Oi‬ھﻮ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪة ﻓﻲ اﻟﻔﺌﺔ ‪ i‬و ‪ Ei‬ھﻮ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻔﺌﺔ ‪ i‬و‬
‫‪ n‬ﻋﺪد اﻟﻔﺌﺂت‪ .‬ﻟﻠﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎوي اﻟﻌﺪد اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻘﻊ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻔﺌﺔ ‪ i‬ھﻮ‬
‫‪ Ei = N n‬ﺣﯿﺚ ‪ N‬ﺣﺠﻢ اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ‪ .‬اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﺔ ‪ χ 02‬ﺗﻮزع ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺒﺎ ﻛﺘﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻛﺎي‬
‫ﺑﺪرﺟﺎت ﺣﺮﯾﺔ ‪. n − 1‬‬
‫‪88‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل‪ :‬إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻛﺎي ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪:Excel‬‬
‫أدﺧﻞ اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺻﻔﺤﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪Excel‬‬
‫‪R‬‬
‫‪0.34‬‬ ‫‪0.83‬‬ ‫‪0.96‬‬ ‫‪0.47‬‬ ‫‪0.79‬‬ ‫‪0.99‬‬ ‫‪0.37‬‬ ‫‪0.72‬‬ ‫‪0.06‬‬ ‫‪0.18‬‬
‫‪0.9‬‬ ‫‪0.76‬‬ ‫‪0.99‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.71‬‬ ‫‪0.17‬‬ ‫‪0.51‬‬ ‫‪0.43‬‬ ‫‪0.39‬‬ ‫‪0.26‬‬
‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.79‬‬ ‫‪0.77‬‬ ‫‪0.17‬‬ ‫‪0.23‬‬ ‫‪0.99‬‬ ‫‪0.54‬‬ ‫‪0.56‬‬ ‫‪0.84‬‬ ‫‪0.97‬‬
‫‪0.89‬‬ ‫‪0.64‬‬ ‫‪0.67‬‬ ‫‪0.82‬‬ ‫‪0.19‬‬ ‫‪0.46‬‬ ‫‪0.01‬‬ ‫‪0.97‬‬ ‫‪0.24‬‬ ‫‪0.88‬‬
‫‪0.87‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.56‬‬ ‫‪0.56‬‬ ‫‪0.82‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪0.81‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.64‬‬
‫‪0.44‬‬ ‫‪0.81‬‬ ‫‪0.41‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪0.93‬‬ ‫‪0.66‬‬ ‫‪0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.94‬‬ ‫‪0.64‬‬ ‫‪0.47‬‬
‫‪0.12‬‬ ‫‪0.94‬‬ ‫‪0.52‬‬ ‫‪0.45‬‬ ‫‪0.65‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪0.69‬‬ ‫‪0.96‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬
‫‪0.21‬‬ ‫‪0.74‬‬ ‫‪0.73‬‬ ‫‪0.31‬‬ ‫‪0.37‬‬ ‫‪0.42‬‬ ‫‪0.34‬‬ ‫‪0.58‬‬ ‫‪0.19‬‬ ‫‪0.11‬‬
‫‪0.46‬‬ ‫‪0.22‬‬ ‫‪0.99‬‬ ‫‪0.78‬‬ ‫‪0.39‬‬ ‫‪0.18‬‬ ‫‪0.75‬‬ ‫‪0.73‬‬ ‫‪0.79‬‬ ‫‪0.29‬‬
‫‪0.67‬‬ ‫‪0.74‬‬ ‫‪0.02‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪0.42‬‬ ‫‪0.49‬‬ ‫‪0.49‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪0.62‬‬ ‫‪0.78‬‬
‫ﺛﻢ ﻋﺒﺊ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺗﻌﺒﺄ ‪ C‬ﻣﻦ ﺗﻘﺴﯿﻢ اﻟﻔﺘﺮة )‪ [0,1‬إﻟﻰ ‪ 10‬ﻓﺘﺮات ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ )‪[0,0.1), [0.1,0.2), …, [0.9,1.0‬‬
‫وﺗﺪﺧﻞ اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﻌﻠﯿﺎ ﻟﻠﻔﺌﺎت ‪ 0.1, 0.2, ,…, 1.0‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺠﺎل ‪C2:C11‬‬
‫أﺧﺘﺎر ‪ Tools => Data Analysis => Histogram‬وﻋﺒﺊ اﻟﻔﺮاﻏﺎت ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪89‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺠﺎل ‪ F2:F11‬أدﺧﻞ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ ‪ Ei = N n = 100 10 = 10‬ﺛﻢ أدﺧﻞ اﻟﺼﯿﻎ ﻛﻤﺎﻓﻲ ‪G1:G4‬‬
‫)اﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼت ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﻤﻮد ‪ I‬ﻟﺤﺴﺎب ‪ CHITEST‬ﻣﻦ ﺻﯿﻐﺔ اﻟﺘﻌﺮﯾﻒ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ(‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﻼﺣﻆ ان اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺴﻮﺑﺔ ﻟﻤﺮﺑﻊ ﻛﺎي ‪ 3.4‬ﺑﺪرﺟﺎت ﺣﺮﯾﺔ ‪ 9‬اﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺠﺪوﻟﯿﺔ ‪16.92‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ﻣﻌﻨﻮﯾﺔ ‪ α = 0.05‬وﺑﮭﺬا ﻓﺈن ﻧﺘﯿﺠﺔ اﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻣﻮﺟﺒﺔ أي اﻧﻨﺎ ﻟﻢ ﻧﻜﺘﺸﻒ ﻓﺮق ﺑﯿﻦ‬
‫اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﻲ ﻟﻸرﻗﺎم } ‪ { R1 , R2 ,..., R100‬واﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎوي‪.‬‬
‫‪90‬‬
‫إﺧﺘﺒﺎرات اﻹﺳﺘﻘﻼل‪:‬‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﺨﺘﺒﺮ اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ‬
‫‪H 0 : Ri‬‬ ‫‪distributed independently‬‬
‫‪H1 : Ri‬‬ ‫‪is not distributed independently‬‬
‫ﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر ھﺬه اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ ھﻨﺎك ﻋﺪة إﺧﺘﺒﺎرات ﺗﺴﻤﻰ ﺑﺈﺧﺘﺒﺎرات اﻟﺠﺮي ‪ Runs Tests‬أﺣﺪھﺎ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﺠﺮي ﻷﻋﻠﻰ واﻟﺠﺮي ﻷﺳﻔﻞ ‪:Runs Up and Runs Down‬‬
‫وھﻮ إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻻﻣﻌﻠﻤﻲ ‪ Nonparametric Test‬وﺳﻮف ﻧﺸﺮﺣﮫ ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺜﺎل اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﺠﺮي ﻷﻋﻠﻰ واﻟﺠﺮي ﻷﺳﻔﻞ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪: Excel‬‬
‫أدﺧﻞ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺻﻔﺤﺔ ‪Excel‬‬
‫‪R‬‬
‫‪0.41‬‬ ‫‪0.68‬‬ ‫‪0.89‬‬ ‫‪0.94‬‬ ‫‪0.74‬‬ ‫‪0.91‬‬ ‫‪0.55‬‬ ‫‪0.62‬‬ ‫‪0.36‬‬ ‫‪0.27‬‬
‫‪0.19‬‬ ‫‪0.72‬‬ ‫‪0.75‬‬ ‫‪0.08‬‬ ‫‪0.54‬‬ ‫‪0.02‬‬ ‫‪0.01‬‬ ‫‪0.36‬‬ ‫‪0.16‬‬ ‫‪0.28‬‬
‫‪0.18‬‬ ‫‪0.01‬‬ ‫‪0.95‬‬ ‫‪0.69‬‬ ‫‪0.18‬‬ ‫‪0.47‬‬ ‫‪0.23‬‬ ‫‪0.32‬‬ ‫‪0.82‬‬ ‫‪0.53‬‬
‫‪0.31‬‬ ‫‪0.42‬‬ ‫‪0.73‬‬ ‫‪0.04‬‬ ‫‪0.83‬‬ ‫‪0.45‬‬ ‫‪0.13‬‬ ‫‪0.57‬‬ ‫‪0.63‬‬ ‫‪0.29‬‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ ان اﻷرﻗﺎم ﺗﺪﺧﻞ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺨﻼﯾﺎ ‪ A2:A41‬ﺛﻢ ﺑﻘﯿﺔ اﻟﺨﻼﯾﺎ ﻛﺎﻵﺗﻲ‪:‬‬

‫))"‪B2=IF(A2<A3,"+",IF(A3="","","-‬‬
‫ﺛﻢ ﺗﻨﺴﺦ ﺣﺘﻰ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺠﺎل‬
‫‪C2 = 1‬‬
‫ﺛﻢ‬
‫))‪C3=IF(B3="","",IF(B3=B2,C2,C2+1‬‬
‫وﺗﻨﺴﺦ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺑﻘﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺠﺎل‬
‫)‪D2 =MAX(C:C‬‬
‫)‪E2 =COUNT(A:A‬‬
‫‪F2 =(2*E2-1)/3‬‬
‫)‪G2 =SQRT((16*E2-29)/90‬‬
‫‪G4 =(D2-F2)/G2‬‬
‫)‪G6 =NORMSDIST(G4‬‬
‫‪91‬‬
‫ﻓﻨﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﺘﯿﺠﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺸﺮح‪:‬‬
‫ﯾﻌﺮف اﻟﺠﺮي ﻋﻠﻰ اﻧﮫ ﻣﺘﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻹﺷﺎرات اﻟﻤﺘﺸﺎﺑﮭﮫ ﻓﻔﻲ اﻟﻤﺜﺎل اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ‪ 26‬ﺟﺮي‬
‫‪92‬‬
‫‪Run Mark‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪+++‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪−‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪+‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪−‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪+‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪−−−‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪++‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪−‬‬
‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪+‬‬
‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪−−‬‬
‫‪11‬‬ ‫‪+‬‬
‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪−‬‬
‫‪13‬‬ ‫‪+‬‬
‫‪14‬‬ ‫‪−−‬‬
‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪+‬‬
‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪−−‬‬
‫‪17‬‬ ‫‪+‬‬
‫‪18‬‬ ‫‪−‬‬
‫‪19‬‬ ‫‪++‬‬
‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪−−‬‬
‫‪21‬‬ ‫‪++‬‬
‫‪22‬‬ ‫‪−‬‬
‫‪23‬‬ ‫‪+‬‬
‫‪24‬‬ ‫‪−−‬‬
‫‪25‬‬ ‫‪++‬‬
‫‪26‬‬ ‫‪−‬‬
‫ﻓﺈذا ﻓﺮﺿﻨﺎ أن ‪ a‬ھﻮ اﻟﻌﺪد اﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﺠﺮي ﻓﻲ ﻣﺘﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﯿﺔ ﻓﺈن ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫وﺗﺒﺎﯾﻦ ‪ a‬ﺗﻌﻄﻰ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎت‬
‫‪2N −1‬‬
‫= ‪µa‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪N − 29‬‬
‫= ‪σ a2‬‬
‫‪90‬‬
‫ﺣﯿﺚ ‪ N‬ﺣﺠﻢ اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﺈذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ‪ N > 20‬ﻓﺈن ‪ a‬ﯾﻜﻮن ﻟﮭﺎ ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺒﺎ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ) ‪ N ( µ a , σ a2‬وﻧﺨﺘﺒﺮ‬
‫‪a − µa‬‬
‫= ‪ Z 0‬اﻟﺘﻲ ﻟﮭﺎ‬ ‫ﻓﺮﺿﯿﺔ إﺳﺘﻘﻼل اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﺑﺈﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﺠﺮي ﺑﺤﺴﺎب اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﺔ‬
‫‪σa‬‬
‫‪93‬‬
‫ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺒﺎ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ طﺒﯿﻌﻲ ﻗﯿﺎﺳﻲ ﺗﺤﺖ اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ اﻟﺼﻔﺮﯾﺔ‪ .‬ﺑﻌﺪ ﺣﺴﺎب ‪ Z 0‬وﻋﻨﺪ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ﻣﻌﻨﻮﯾﺔ ‪α‬‬
‫ﻧﻘﺎرﻧﮭﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﺠﺪوﻟﯿﺔ ﻓﺈذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ‪ − zα 2 ≤ Z 0 ≤ zα 2‬ﻓﺈﻧﻨﺎ ﻻﻧﺮﻓﺾ اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ اﻟﺼﻔﺮﯾﺔ‪.‬‬

‫اﻟﻘﺮار ‪ :‬ﯾﺘﺮك ﻛﺘﻤﺮﯾﻦ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻟﺐ ‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﺠﺮي ﻓﻮق وﺗﺤﺖ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪: Runs above and below the mean‬‬
‫إذا ﻧﻈﺮﻧﺎ ﺑﺘﻤﻌﻦ ﻟﻸرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺜﺎل اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ وﻗﺎرﻧﺎ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪة ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات ﻧﺠﺪ‬
‫ان ﻧﺼﻒ اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات اﻷول )اﻟـ ‪ 20‬ﻣﺸﺎھﺪة اﻷوﻟﻰ ( ﻛﻠﮭﺎ أﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ وﺟﻤﯿﻊ اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات‬
‫ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﺼﻒ اﻵﺧﺮ أﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ وﺣﺪوث ﻣﺜﻞ ھﺬا اﻟﻨﻤﻂ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪات ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﺎ ﻏﯿﺮ‬
‫ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻞ ﻟﮭﺬا ﯾﻘﺘﺮح إﺟﺮاء إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻟﻠﺠﺮي ﻓﻮق وﺗﺤﺖ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻟﻠﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻣﻦ إﺳﺘﻘﻼﻟﯿﺔ اﻷرﻗﺎم‬
‫اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻮﻟﺪة‪.‬‬
‫إﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﺠﺮي ﻓﻮق وﺗﺤﺖ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﯾﺠﺮى ﺑﻨﻔﺲ طﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ وذﻟﻚ ﺑﻤﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﻛﻞ‬
‫ﻣﺸﺎھﺪة ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات ﻓﺈذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻓﻮق اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻧﻀﻊ ‪ +‬أﻣﺎ إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺗﺤﺖ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻓﻨﻀﻊ‬
‫‪ -‬ﺛﻢ ﻧﺤﺴﺐ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺠﺮي اﻟﻜﻠﻲ‪ .‬وﻧﺠﺮي اﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ‪ n1‬ﻋﺪد اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات اﻟﺘﻲ ھﻲ ﻓﻮق اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ و ‪ n2‬ﻋﺪد اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات اﻟﺘﻲ ھﻲ ﺗﺤﺖ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ و ‪ b‬ﻋﺪد اﻟﺠﺮي اﻟﻜﻠﻲ )ﻻﺣﻆ أن ‪ (1 ≤ b ≤ n1 + n2 = N‬ﻓﺈن ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ وﺗﺒﺎﯾﻦ ‪ b‬ﺗﻌﻄﻰ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎت‪:‬‬
‫‪2n1n2 1‬‬
‫= ‪µb‬‬ ‫‪+‬‬
‫‪N‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫) ‪2n n ( 2 n n − N‬‬
‫‪σ b2 = 1 2 2 1 2‬‬
‫)‪N ( N − 1‬‬
‫ﻓﺈذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ اي ﻣﻦ ‪ n1‬و ‪ n2‬أﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ ‪ 20‬ﻓﺈن ‪ b‬ﺗﺤﺖ اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ اﻟﺼﻔﺮﯾﺔ ﯾﻜﻮن ﻟﮭﺎ ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺒﺎ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ‬
‫‪b − µb‬‬
‫= ‪ Z 0‬وﻋﻨﺪ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ﻣﻌﻨﻮﯾﺔ ‪ α‬ﻧﻘﺎرﻧﮭﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﯿﻢ‬ ‫طﺒﯿﻌﻲ وﻹﺟﺮاء اﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻧﻜﻮن اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﺔ‬
‫‪σb‬‬
‫اﻟﺠﺪوﻟﯿﺔ ﻓﺈذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ‪ − zα 2 ≤ Z 0 ≤ zα 2‬ﻓﺈﻧﻨﺎ ﻻﻧﺮﻓﺾ اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ اﻟﺼﻔﺮﯾﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل‪ :‬اﻟﺠﺮي ﻓﻮق وﺗﺤﺖ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪Runs above and below the mean‬‬
‫ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪:Excel‬‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﻮﺟﺪ إﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﺠﺮي ﻓﻮق وﺗﺤﺖ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻟﻸرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺜﺎل اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‪ .‬أدﺧﻞ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺻﻔﺤﺔ ﺟﺪﯾﺪة ﻣﻦ ‪ Excel‬ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪94‬‬
‫ﻓﻨﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬
‫‪95‬‬
‫اﻟﻘﺮار ‪ :‬ﯾﺘﺮك ﻛﺘﻤﺮﯾﻦ ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻟﺐ ‪.‬‬
‫إﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﺘﺮاﺑﻂ اﻟﺬاﺗﻲ‪:‬‬
‫وھﺬا إﺧﺘﺒﺎر آﺧﺮ ﻹﺳﺘﻘﻼﻟﯿﺔ اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ وﯾﺨﺘﺒﺮ اﻹﻋﺘﻤﺎد أو اﻹرﺗﺒﺎط ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﺘﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ‬
‫اﻷﻋﺪاد‪ .‬ﺳﻮف ﻧﺘﻄﺮق إﻟﻰ طﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻓﻘﻂ ﻷن اﻟﻨﻈﺮﯾﺔ ﺧﻠﻒ ھﺬا اﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﺗﺘﻄﻠﺐ ﺧﻠﻔﯿﺔ‬
‫اﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ھﺬا اﻟﻜﺘﺎب وﺳﻮف ﺗﺪرس ﻓﻲ ﻣﺎدة ‪ 221‬ﺑﺤﺚ )طﺮق اﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ(‪ .‬أﻧﻈﺮ‬
‫ﻛﺘﺎب طﺮق اﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ اﻟﺠﺰء اﻷول ﺗﺄﻟﯿﻒ د‪ .‬ﻋﺪﻧﺎن ﻣﺎﺟﺪ ﺑﺮي‪(3) .‬‬
‫)ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ‪ :‬ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻤﺜﺎل ﺳﻮف ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﺻﯿﻐﺔ ﻟﺤﺴﺎب اﻟﺘﺮاﺑﻂ اﻟﺬاﺗﻲ أﻋﻢ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺼﯿﻎ اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮدة‬
‫ﻓﻲ اﻟﻜﺘﺎب اﻟﻤﻘﺮر وھﺬه اﻟﺼﯿﻐﺔ أﻛﺜﺮ إﻧﺘﺸﺎرا وإﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻛﺘﺐ اﻹﺣﺼﺎء(‬
‫ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺜﺎل اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺳﻮف ﻧﺨﺘﺒﺮ ﻓﺮﺿﯿﺔ اﻹﺳﺘﻘﻼل وذﻟﻚ ﺑﺈﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻗﯿﻢ اﻟﺘﺮاﺑﻂ اﻟﺬاﺗﻲ ﻟﻤﺘﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات‪ .‬ﻓﺈذا ﻓﺮﺿﻨﺎ أن ‪ ρi‬ھﻮ اﻟﺘﺮاﺑﻂ اﻟﺬاﺗﻲ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺪرﺟﺔ ‪ i‬واﻟﺬي ﯾﻌﻄﻰ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬
‫‪N −i‬‬
‫‪ρi‬‬ ‫=‬
‫‪∑ ( R − R )( R‬‬
‫‪t =1‬‬ ‫‪t‬‬ ‫‪t +i‬‬ ‫)‪− R‬‬
‫‪, i = 0,1, 2,...‬‬
‫‪N‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫)‪∑ (R − R‬‬ ‫‪t =1‬‬ ‫‪t‬‬
‫اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﺔ ‪ ρi‬ﻟﻤﺘﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﯿﺔ ﻟﮭﺎ اﻟﺨﻮاص اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬

‫‪E ( ρi ) = 0, i = 1, 2,...‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫= ) ‪V ( ρi‬‬ ‫‪, i = 1, 2,...‬‬
‫‪N‬‬
‫‪Approx‬‬
‫‪ρi‬‬ ‫) ‪N ( 0,1 N‬‬
‫ﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻹﺳﺘﻘﻼل ﻓﺈن اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ ھﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪H 0 : ρi = 0‬‬
‫‪H1 : ρ i ≠ 0‬‬
‫إﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﺘﺮاﺑﻂ اﻟﺬاﺗﻲ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪:Excel‬‬

‫ﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر ھﺬه اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪ Excel‬أدﺧﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺻﻔﺤﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪Excel‬‬
‫‪96‬‬
‫ﻓﺘﻈﮭﺮ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻼﺣﻆ أن ﻗﯿﻢ ‪ ρi , i = 1, 2,...,5‬ﻛﻠﮭﺎ ﺗﻘﻊ داﺧﻞ اﻟﻔﺘﺮة ) ‪ ( −0.3099,0.3099‬وھﺬا ﯾﺆﯾﺪ اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ‬

‫اﻟﺼﻔﺮﯾﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪97‬‬
‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮات ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫إن ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮات ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﺗﺘﺒﻊ ﺗﻮزﯾﻌﺎ ﻣﻌﯿﻨﺎ ھﻲ أﺳﺎس اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة إذ ﯾﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ أﺣﺪاث ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ‬
‫ﺗﺤﺎﻛﻲ أي ﻧﻈﺎم ﺣﻘﯿﻘﻲ وذﻟﻚ ﺑﻤﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ ﺗﻮزﯾﻌﺎت إﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﺗﻨﻄﺒﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ أﺣﺪاث و ﺧﻮاص ھﺬا اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﻤﺜﻼ أزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل ﻓﻲ أﻧﻈﻤﺔ اﻟﻄﻮاﺑﯿﺮ وھﻲ أﺣﺪاث ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﺗﻨﻤﺬج ﻏﺎﻟﺒﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ‬
‫اﻷﺳﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ھﻨﺎك ﻋﺪة طﺮق وﺧﻮارزﻣﺎت ﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮات ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﻌﯿﻦ وﺳﻮف ﻧﺴﺘﻌﺮض اھﻤﮭﺎ‬
‫وأﻛﺜﺮھﺎ إﻧﺘﺸﺎرا وذﻟﻚ ﻟﻐﺮض اﻹﻟﻤﺎم ﺑﮭﺬه اﻟﻄﺮق ﻓﻘﻂ وﻟﯿﺲ ﻹﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﮭﺎ إذ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﺔ أن‬
‫اﻟﺨﻮارزﻣﺎت اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺑﺮاﻣﺞ اﻟﺤﺎﺳﺐ اﻛﺜﺮ ﺗﻄﻮرا وﺗﻌﻄﻲ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻋﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻮﺛﻮﻗﯿﺔ وﻗﺪ ﺗﻢ‬
‫ﻓﺤﺼﮭﺎ وإﺧﺘﺒﺎرھﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ اﻟﻜﺜﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﯿﻦ ﻓﻲ أﺑﺤﺎث ﻣﻮﺛﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺠﻼت اﻟﺒﺤﺚ اﻟﻌﻠﻤﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﯾﺘﺒﻊ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ‬ ‫ﻟﻜﻲ ﻧﻮﻟﺪ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪات ‪ x1 , x2 ,...‬ﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ‪X‬‬
‫∞ < ‪FX ( x ) = P ( X ≤ x ) , − ∞ < x‬‬
‫ﻓﺈﻧﻨﺎ ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻣﺘﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ‪ R1 , R2 ,...‬ﺣﯿﺚ ﻛﻞ ‪ Ri‬ﻟﮭﺎ داﻟﺔ ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ إﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬
‫‪1, 0 ≤ x ≤ 1‬‬
‫‪fR ( x) = ‬‬
‫‪0, otherwise‬‬
‫وداﻟﺔ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﺗﺮاﻛﻤﻲ‬
‫‪ 0,‬‬ ‫‪x<0‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪FR ( x ) =  x, 0 ≤ x ≤ 1‬‬
‫‪ 1,‬‬ ‫‪x >1‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫وﯾﻘﺎل أن )‪ Ri U ( 0,1‬ﻟﺠﻤﯿﻊ ﻗﯿﻢ ‪. i‬‬
‫طﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﺘﺤﻮﯾﻞ اﻟﻌﻜﺴﻲ ‪Inverse Transform Technique‬‬

‫وھﻲ اﻟﻄﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻷﻛﺜﺮ إﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﺎ وﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻮزﯾﻌﺎت اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ إﯾﺠﺎد ) ‪ FX−1 ( x‬ﻟﮭﺎ‬
‫وﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻟﻠﺘﻮزﯾﻌﺎت اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ ‪ Empirical Distributions‬وﺗﻘﻮم ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﻄﺎﺑﻖ‬
‫‪FX ( X ) = R‬‬
‫وﺳﻮف ﻧﺸﺮﺣﮭﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻔﺼﯿﻞ ﻟﻠﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻷﺳﻲ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ‪ :‬اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻌﺎت اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺬﻛﻮرة ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ واﻟﺘﻲ ﺳﻨﻮﻟﺪ ﻣﻨﮭﺎ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪات ﻣﺸﺮوﺣﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻔﺼﯿﻞ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺴﺎدس ﻋﻦ ﻧﻤﺬﺟﺔ اﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼت‪.‬‬
‫‪98‬‬
‫ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪات ﻣﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﯾﺘﺒﻊ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻷﺳﻲ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ‪ X‬ﯾﺘﺒﻊ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻷﺳﻲ إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ داﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﮫ ھﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪λ e − λ x , x ≥ 0‬‬
‫‪f X ( x) = ‬‬
‫‪ 0,‬‬ ‫‪x<0‬‬
‫وداﻟﺔ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﺗﺮاﻛﻤﻲ‬

‫‪x‬‬ ‫‪1 − e − λ x , x ≥ 0‬‬
‫∫ = )‪F ( x‬‬ ‫‪f ( t ) dt = ‬‬
‫∞‪−‬‬
‫‪ 0,‬‬ ‫‪x<0‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ ‪ λ‬ﯾﻔﺴﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ أﻧﺔ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺤﺪوث ﻓﻲ وﺣﺪة زﻣﻨﯿﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻤﺜﻼ ﻟﻮ ﻛﺎن ﻷزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻮﺻﻮل ‪ X 1 , X 2 ,...‬ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ أﺳﻲ ﺑﻤﻌﺪل ‪ λ‬ﻓﺈن ‪ λ‬ﺗﻔﺴﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻧﮭﺎ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻮﺻﻮل ﻟﻮﺣﺪة‬
‫زﻣﻨﯿﺔ أو ﻣﻌﺪل اﻟﻮﺻﻮل‪ .‬ﻻﺣﻆ اﻧﮫ ﻷي ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ‪ i‬ﻓﺈن‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫= ) ‪E ( Xi‬‬
‫‪λ‬‬
‫وھﻜﺬا ﻓﺈن ‪ 1 λ‬ھﻮ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل‪.‬‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﻮﻟﺪ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪات ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ‪ X 1 , X 2 ,...‬واﻟﺘﻲ ﻟﮭﺎ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ أﺳﻲ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام‬
‫طﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﺘﺤﻮﯾﻞ اﻟﻌﻜﺴﻲ ﺑﺎﻟﺨﻮارزم اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺧﻄﻮة )‪ :(1‬أوﺟﺪ داﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺮاﻛﻤﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﺒﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ‪. X‬‬
‫ﻟﻠﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻷﺳﻲ داﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺮاﻛﻤﻲ ھﻲ ‪F ( x ) = 1 − e − λ x , x ≥ 0‬‬
‫ﺧﻄﻮة )‪ :(2‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺠﺎل ‪ X‬ﺿﻊ ‪F ( X ) = R‬‬
‫ﻟﻠﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻷﺳﻲ ‪ 1 − e− λ X = R‬ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﺠﺎل ‪. x ≥ 0‬‬

‫ﺧﻄﻮة )‪ :(3‬ﺣﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ‪ F ( X ) = R‬ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ ‪ X‬ﺑﺪﻻﻟﺔ ‪. R‬‬
‫ﻟﻠﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻷﺳﻲ ﻧﺤﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ‪ 1 − e− λ X = R‬ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ ‪ X‬ﺑﺪﻻﻟﺔ ‪ R‬ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪1 − e− λ X = R‬‬
‫‪e−λ X = 1 − R‬‬
‫) ‪−λ X = ln (1 − R‬‬
‫‪−1‬‬
‫=‪X‬‬ ‫) ‪ln (1 − R‬‬
‫‪λ‬‬
‫‪99‬‬
‫‪−1‬‬
‫= ‪ X‬ﺗﺴﻤﻰ ﻣﻮﻟﺪ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻟﻠﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻷﺳﻲ وھﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻌﺎدﻟﺔ ) ‪ln (1 − R‬‬
‫‪λ‬‬
‫) ‪. X = F −1 ( R‬‬
‫ﺧﻄﻮة )‪ :(4‬وﻟﺪ اﻟﻌﺪد اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﻣﻦ اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ‪ R1 , R2 ,...‬وﻣﻦ ﺛﻢ اﺣﺴﺐ اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات ﻣﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ‪ X‬ﺣﺴﺐ اﻟﺼﯿﻐﺔ ) ‪. X i = F −1 ( Ri‬‬
‫ﻟﻠﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻷﺳﻲ ﻣﻌﻄﻰ اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ‪ R1 , R2 ,...‬ﻧﺤﺴﺐ ‪ X 1 , X 2 ,...‬ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫‪−1‬‬
‫= ‪Xi‬‬ ‫‪ln (1 − Ri ) , i = 1, 2,3,...‬‬
‫‪λ‬‬
‫‪−1‬‬
‫= ‪) X i‬ﻟﻤﺎذا؟(‬ ‫ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ‪ :‬ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﺒﺴﯿﻂ ھﺬه اﻟﺼﯿﻐﺔ إﻟﻰ ‪ln Ri , i = 1, 2,3,...‬‬
‫‪λ‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل )‪ (1‬ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪات ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻷﺳﻲ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪:Excel‬‬

‫وﻟﺪ ‪ 1000‬ﻣﺸﺎھﺪة ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ‪ X‬اﻟﺬي ﯾﺘﺒﻊ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻷﺳﻲ ‪. λ = 1‬‬
‫أﻓﺘﺢ ﺻﻔﺤﺔ ﺟﺪﯾﺪة ﻓﻲ ‪ Excel‬وأدﺧﻞ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﻛﻤﺎ ھﻮ ﻣﻮﺿﺢ‬
‫‪100‬‬
‫ﺑﻌﺪ إدﺧﺎل اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﻔﺘﺎح ‪ F9‬ﻓﺘﺤﺴﺐ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﯿﺴﺎر ﻣﻀﻠﻊ ﺗﻜﺮاري ﻟﻸرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﺑﯿﻨﻤﺎ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﻷﯾﻤﻦ ﻣﻀﻠﻊ ﺗﻜﺮاري‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺎھﺪات اﻟﻤﻮﻟﺪة ﻟﻠﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻷﺳﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻻﺣﻆ أن اﻟﻤﻀﻠﻊ اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري ‪ Histogram‬ھﻮ ﻣﻘﺪر ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺒﻲ‬
‫ﻟﺪاﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل )‪ (2‬ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪات ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎوي ﺑﯿﻦ )‪: (a,b‬‬
‫إذا ﻛﺎن ) ‪ X ~ U ( a, b‬ﻓﺈن داﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﮭﺎ ﺗﻌﻄﻰ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬
‫‪ 1‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪, a≤ x≤b‬‬
‫‪f ( x) = b − a‬‬
‫‪ 0,‬‬ ‫‪otherwise‬‬
‫ﻟﻜﻲ ﻧﺸﺘﻖ ﻣﻮﻟﺪ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ) ‪ X ~ U ( a, b‬ﻧﺘﺒﻊ ﺧﻄﻮات اﻟﺨﻮارزم اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫اﻟﺨﻄﻮة )‪ :(1‬ﻧﻮﺟﺪ داﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺮاﻛﻤﻲ‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪ 0,‬‬ ‫‪x<a‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪x−a‬‬
‫‪F ( x) = ‬‬ ‫‪, a≤ x≤b‬‬
‫‪b − a‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪ 1,‬‬ ‫‪x>b‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫اﻟﺨﻄﻮة )‪ :(2‬ﻧﻀﻊ ‪ F ( X ) = ( X − a ) ( b − a ) = R‬ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﺠﺎل ‪. a ≤ x ≤ b‬‬
‫‪101‬‬
‫اﻟﺨﻄﻮة )‪ :(3‬ﻧﺤﻞ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ‪ F ( X ) = ( X − a ) ( b − a ) = R‬ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ ‪ X‬ﺑﺪﻻﻟﺔ ‪ R‬ﻓﯿﻨﺘﺞ‬
‫‪. X = a + (b − a ) R‬‬
‫ﺗﻤﺮﯾﻦ‪ :‬وﻟﺪ ‪ 1000‬ﻣﺸﺎھﺪة ﻣﻦ اﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ) ‪. X ~ U ( 0,10‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل )‪ (3‬ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪات ﻣﻦ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ وﯾﺒﻞ ‪: Weibull‬‬

‫اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ‪ X‬ﯾﺘﺒﻊ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ وﯾﺒﻞ إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ داﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﮫ ھﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ β  x  β −1 − x ‬‬
‫‪β‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪e α  ,‬‬ ‫‪x≥0‬‬

‫‪f ( x ) =  α  α ‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪0,‬‬ ‫‪otherwise‬‬
‫ﺣﯿﺚ ‪ α > 0‬و ‪ β > 0‬ھﻲ ﻣﻌﺎﻟﻢ اﻟﺤﺠﻢ واﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﻟﻠﺘﻮزﯾﻊ ) ﻣﻌﻠﻢ اﻟﻤﻮﻗﻊ ‪ ν = 0‬ﻓﻲ ھﺬه اﻟﺼﯿﻐﺔ(‪.‬‬
‫ﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪات ﻣﻦ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ وﯾﺒﻞ ﻧﺘﺒﻊ اﻟﺨﻄﻮات اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﺨﻄﻮة )‪ :(1‬ﻣﻦ داﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻧﺠﺪ ان داﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺮاﻛﻤﻲ ھﻲ‬
‫‪β‬‬
‫‪ x‬‬
‫‪− ‬‬
‫‪α ‬‬
‫‪F ( x) = 1− e‬‬ ‫‪, x≥0‬‬
‫‪β‬‬
‫‪x‬‬
‫‪− ‬‬
‫‪F ( x) = 1− e‬‬ ‫‪α ‬‬
‫اﻟﺨﻄﻮة )‪ :(2‬ﺿﻊ ‪= R‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪X = α  −ln (1 − R ) ‬‬ ‫‪β‬‬
‫اﻟﺨﻄﻮة )‪ :(3‬أوﺟﺪ ‪ X‬ﺑﺪﻻﻟﺔ ‪ R‬ﻓﯿﻨﺘﺞ‬
‫ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪات ﻣﻦ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ وﯾﺒﻞ ‪ Weibull‬ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪: Excel‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫= ‪ α‬و ‪ β = 2‬ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪ Excel‬ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬ ‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﻮﻟﺪ ‪ 1000‬ﻣﺸﺎھﺪة ﻣﻦ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ وﯾﺒﻞ ﻟﻘﯿﻢ‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪102‬‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺎھﺪات اﻟﻤﻮﻟﺪة ﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ وﯾﺒﻞ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل )‪ (4‬ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪات ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺜﻠﺜﻲ ‪: Triangular Distribution‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ‪ X‬ﯾﻜﻮن ﻟﮫ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﺜﻠﺜﻲ ] ‪ Tri [ a, b, c‬إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ داﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﮫ ھﻲ‪:‬‬
‫)‪ 2( x − a‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪, a≤ x≤b‬‬
‫) ‪ ( b − a )( c − a‬‬
‫)‪ 2 (c − x‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪f ( x) = ‬‬ ‫‪, b< x≤c‬‬
‫) ‪ ( c − b )( c − a‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪ 0,‬‬ ‫‪elsewhere‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫ﺣﯿﺚ ‪ a ≤ b ≤ c‬وداﻟﺔ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﺗﺮاﻛﻤﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪‬‬
‫‪ 0,‬‬ ‫‪x≤a‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫)‪ ( x − a‬‬ ‫‪a< x≤b‬‬
‫‪ ( b − a )( c − a ) ,‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪F ( x) = ‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫(‬ ‫)‪c − x‬‬
‫‪1 − c − b c − a , b < x ≤ c‬‬
‫( ‪‬‬ ‫()‬ ‫)‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪ 1,‬‬ ‫‪x>c‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪103‬‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﻮﻟﺪ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪات ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ‪ X‬اﻟﺬي ﻟﮫ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﺜﻠﺜﻲ ]‪ Tri [ 0,1, 2‬ﺑﺪاﻟﺔ‬
‫ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ إﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ x,‬‬ ‫‪0 ≤ x ≤1‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪f ( x ) =  2 − x, 1 < x ≤ 2‬‬
‫‪ 0,‬‬ ‫‪elsewhere‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫وﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﺗﺮاﻛﻤﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪ 0,‬‬ ‫‪x≤0‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪ x2‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪,‬‬ ‫‪0 < x ≤1‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪F ( x) =  2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪−‬‬
‫‪(2 − x) ,‬‬ ‫‪1< x ≤ 2‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪ 1,‬‬ ‫‪x>2‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫ﻣﻦ داﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺮاﻛﻤﻲ ﻧﻼﺣﻆ‪:‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪X2‬‬
‫≤ ‪ 0 ≤ R‬وﻋﻨﺪھﺎ ﯾﻜﻮن ‪X = 2 R‬‬ ‫= ‪ R‬وﯾﻜﻮن ﻣﺠﺎل ‪ R‬ھﻮ‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ‪ 0 ≤ X ≤ 1‬ﻓﺈن‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪ R = 1 −‬وﯾﻜﻮن ﻣﺠﺎل ‪ R‬ھﻮ ‪ ≤ R ≤ 1‬وﻋﻨﺪھﺎ ﯾﻜﻮن‬
‫وﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ‪ 1 ≤ X ≤ 2‬ﻓﺈن ) ‪( 2 − X‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫) ‪ X = 2 − 2 (1 − R‬وھﻜﺬا ﻓﺈن ﻣﻮﻟﺪ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪات ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ‪ X‬ﯾﻌﻄﻰ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪2R ,‬‬ ‫≤‪0≤ R‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪X =‬‬
‫‪ 2 − 2 (1 − R ) ,‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪< R ≤1‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪات ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺜﻠﺜﻲ ‪ Triangular Distribution‬ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام‬

‫‪Excel‬‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﻮﻟﺪ ‪ 1000‬ﻣﺸﺎھﺪة ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ‪ X‬ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪ Excel‬ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪104‬‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺎھﺪات اﻟﻤﻮﻟﺪة ﻟﻠﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺜﻠﺜﻲ‪.‬‬
‫‪105‬‬
‫اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻌﺎت اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ ‪ Empirical Distributions‬أو ﺗﻮزﯾﻌﺎت‬
‫اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ ‪Sampling Distributions‬‬
‫ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻌﺎت اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ أو ﺗﻮزﯾﻌﺎت اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﺪم وﺟﻮد ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﯾﻨﻄﺒﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻈﺎم ﯾﺮاد ﻧﻤﺬﺟﺘﮫ وﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎﺗﮫ‪ .‬وھﺬا ﯾﻨﻄﺒﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ‬
‫اﻧﻈﻤﺔ ﺣﻘﯿﻘﯿﺔ وﯾﻨﺪر ﻣﺎ ﺗﻨﻄﺒﻖ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﻌﻠﻤﻲ‪ .‬ﻓﺈذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻟﺪﯾﻨﺎ ﻋﯿﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات‬
‫‪ x1 , x2 ,..., xn‬ﻓﺈن داﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﻲ أو داﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ ﻟﻠﻌﯿﻨﺔ ﺗﺤﺴﺐ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫رﺗﺐ اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات ‪ x1 , x2 ,..., xn‬ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ )‪ x(1) , x( 2) ,..., x( n‬ﺑﺤﯿﺚ )‪ x(1) ≤ x( 2) ≤ ... ≤ x( n‬أﺣﺴﺐ‬
‫داﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‪:‬‬

‫‪‬‬
‫‪ 0,‬‬ ‫)‪x < x(1‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪k‬‬
‫‪Sn ( x ) =  ,‬‬ ‫‪x( k ) ≤ x < x( k +1) , k = 1, 2,..., n‬‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪ 1,‬‬ ‫) ‪x ≥ x( n‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺴﺐ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﻓﺈن اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻌﺎت اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ ﺗﻜﻮن إﻣﺎ ﻣﺴﺘﻤﺮة او ﻣﺘﻘﻄﻌﺔ ) ﻣﻨﻔﺼﻠﺔ ( وﺳﻮف‬
‫ﻧﺴﺘﻌﺮض ﻛﻼھﻤﺎ ﺑﻤﺜﺎل‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﻲ اﻟﻤﻨﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪:Excel‬‬
‫ﯾﺼﻞ اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ إﻟﻰ أﺣﺪ اﻟﻤﻄﺎﻋﻢ وﻗﺖ اﻟﻐﺬاء ﻓﻲ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺎت ﺗﺘﺮاوح ﻣﻦ ﺷﺨﺺ واﺣﺪ إﻟﻰ ﺛﻤﺎﻧﯿﺔ‬
‫أﺷﺨﺎص‪ .‬ﺟﻤﻌﺖ ﺑﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﻋﻦ ھﺬا اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﺣﺘﻰ إﺳﺘﻜﻤﺎل وﺻﻮل ‪ 300‬ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻜﺎﻧﺖ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪106‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب إﯾﺠﺎد داﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺮاﻛﻤﻲ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﻲ‬
‫اﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﻷﯾﺴﺮ ﯾﻌﻄﻲ اﻟﻤﻀﻠﻊ اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري اﻟﻨﺴﺒﻲ وھﻮ ﻣﻘﺪر ﻟﺪاﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺘﻠﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﻷﯾﻤﻦ ﯾﻌﻄﻲ اﻟﻤﺪرج اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري اﻟﻨﺴﺒﻲ وھﻮ داﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﻲ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪: Excel‬‬
‫اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﻸزﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺴﺘﻐﺮﻗﮭﺎ ‪ 500‬طﺎﻟﺐ ﻓﻲ إﻣﺘﺤﺎن ﻣﺎدة ﻣﺎ ﻛﺠﺰء ﻣﻦ وﻗﺖ اﻹﻣﺘﺤﺎن‬
‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬
‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬
‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.9‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.9‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.9‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬
‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪1.0‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪1.0‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬
‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬
‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬
‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬
‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪1.0‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬
‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪107‬‬
‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪0.9‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬
‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬
‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.9‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬
‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬
‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬
‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬
‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬
‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬
‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪1.0‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.9‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪0.9‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪0.9‬‬
‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.8‬‬
‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬
‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.9‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬
‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬
‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.9‬‬ ‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬
‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬
‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬
‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬
‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب إﯾﺠﺎد داﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺮاﻛﻤﻲ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﻲ‬

‫ﻛﺎﻟﻤﺜﺎل اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‬
‫اﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﻷﯾﺴﺮ ﯾﻌﻄﻲ اﻟﻤﻀﻠﻊ اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري اﻟﻨﺴﺒﻲ وھﻮ ﻣﻘﺪر ﻟﺪاﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺘﻠﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﻷﯾﻤﻦ ﯾﻌﻄﻲ اﻟﻤﺪرج اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري اﻟﻨﺴﺒﻲ وھﻮ داﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل )‪ (5‬ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪات ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﻲ اﻟﻤﻨﻔﺼﻞ‪:‬‬
‫ﻟﻘﺪ ﺳﺒﻖ وأن ﺗﻄﺮﻗﻨﺎ إﻟﻰ ﻣﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﻲ اﻟﻤﻨﻔﺼﻞ ﻓﻲ أول اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ﺗﺤﺖ ﻋﻨﻮان‬
‫اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ إﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪.Excel‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل )‪ (6‬ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪات ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﻲ اﻟﻤﺘﺼﻞ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪:Excel‬‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﻌﺎﯾﻦ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺘﺼﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪Interval‬‬ ‫‪CDF‬‬
‫‪108‬‬
‫‪0.25 ≤ x ≤ 0.50 0.31‬‬
‫‪0.50 < x ≤ 1.00 0.41‬‬
‫‪1.00 < x ≤ 1.50 0.66‬‬
‫‪1.50 < x ≤ 2.00 1.00‬‬
‫أﻓﺘﺢ ﺻﻔﺤﺔ ﻓﻲ ‪ Excel‬وأدﺧﻞ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﻛﻤﺎ ھﻮ ﻣﻮﺿﺢ‪:‬‬
‫ﻓﻨﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪109‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل )‪ (7‬ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪات ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﻲ اﻟﻤﺘﺼﻞ‪:‬‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﻌﺎﯾﻦ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺘﺼﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪Interval‬‬ ‫‪CDF‬‬
‫‪0.00 < x ≤ 0.80‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬
‫‪0.80 < x ≤ 1.24‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪1.24 < x ≤ 1.45‬‬ ‫‪0.6‬‬
‫‪1.45.0 < x ≤ 1.83 0.8‬‬
‫‪1.83 < x ≤ 2.76‬‬ ‫‪1.0‬‬
‫أﻓﺘﺢ ﺻﻔﺤﺔ ﻓﻲ ‪ Excel‬وأدﺧﻞ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﻛﻤﺎ ھﻮ ﻣﻮﺿﺢ‪:‬‬
‫ﺗﺤﺖ ‪ Observations‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﻤﻮد ‪ F1‬أدﺧﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪=IF(A2<=$C$3,$D$2+$E$2*(A2- C$2),IF(A2<=$C$4,$D$3+$E$3*(A2-$3),IF(A2<=$C$5,‬‬
‫‪110‬‬
‫‪$D$4+$E$4*(A2-C$4),IF(A2<=$C$6,$D$5+$E$5*(A2-$C$5),IF(A2<=$C$7,$D$6+$E$6*(A2-‬‬
‫)))))‪$C$6),2‬‬
‫ﻓﺘﻈﮭﺮ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬
‫وﺳﻮف ﻧﺸﺮح ﻛﯿﻔﯿﺔ ﻋﻤﻞ اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺠﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﻌﻄﺎة ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺜﺎﻟﯿﻦ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﯿﻦ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫اﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﺪاﻟﺔ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﺗﺮاﻛﻤﻲ ﺗﺠﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻣﺘﺼﻞ‪.‬‬
‫‪1.2‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫)‪(2.76,1.0‬‬
‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫)‪(1.83,0.80‬‬
‫‪0.6‬‬ ‫)‪(1.45,0.60‬‬
‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫)‪(1.24,0.40‬‬
‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫)‪(0.80,0.20‬‬
‫)‪(0,0‬‬
‫‪0‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1.5‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2.5‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪111‬‬
‫ﻟﻜﻲ ﻧﻮﻟﺪ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪات ﻣﺘﺼﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ھﺬا اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻹﺳﺘﻜﻤﺎل اﻟﺨﻄﻲ ‪Linear‬‬
‫‪ Interpolation‬ﻓﻠﻜﻲ ﻧﻮﺟﺪ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ ‪ x‬ﺑﺪﻻﻟﺔ ‪ y‬ﺗﻘﻊ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻨﻘﻄﺘﯿﻦ ) ‪ ( x1 , y1 ) = ( 0, 0‬و‬
‫) ‪ ( x2 , y2 ) = ( 0.8,0.2‬وﻟﺘﻜﻦ إﺣﺪاﺛﯿﺎﺗﮭﺎ ﻣﺜﻼ ) ‪ ( x, y‬ﻧﻌﻮض ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬
‫‪ x −x ‬‬
‫‪x = x1 + ( y − y1 )  2 1 ‬‬
‫‪ y2 − y1 ‬‬
‫ﻓﻤﺜﻼ إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ‪ y = 0.18‬ﻓﺈن‬

‫‪ 0.8 − 0 ‬‬
‫‪x = 0 + ( 0.18 − 0 ) ‬‬ ‫‪ == 0.72‬‬
‫‪ 0.2 − 0 ‬‬
‫ﻓﻠﻜﻲ ﻧﻮﻟﺪ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪات ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺮاﻛﻤﻲ ﻧﻮﺟﺪ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ‪ R‬ﻓﺈذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ‪ yi < R ≤ yi +1‬ﻓﺈن‬
‫‪ x −x ‬‬
‫‪X = xi + ( R − yi )  i +1 i ‬‬
‫‪ yi +1 − yi ‬‬
‫ﻓﻤﺜﻼ ﻟﻮ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ‪ R = 0.71‬أي ‪ 0.6 < R < 0.8‬ﻓﺈن‬

‫‪ 1.83 − 1.45 ‬‬
‫‪X = 1.45 + ( 0.71 − 0.6 ) ‬‬ ‫‪ = 1.659‬‬
‫‪ 0.8 − 0.6 ‬‬
‫اﻟﻨﻘﺎط‬ ‫وﺑﻤﻌﺮﻓﺔ‬ ‫)‪R ~ U ( 0,1‬‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﺑﻘﯿﻢ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻌﺎدﻟﺔ‬ ‫ھﺬه‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻌﻮﯾﺾ‬ ‫وھﻜﺬا‬
‫ﻧﺴﺘﻄﯿﻊ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ اﻟﻌﺪد اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﻣﻦ‬ ‫‪( xi , yi ) , i = 1, 2,..., Number of‬‬ ‫‪Classes of CDF‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻤﺮﯾﻦ‪ :‬وﻟﺪ ﯾﺪوﯾﺎ ‪ 10‬ﻣﺸﺎھﺪات ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‪.‬‬
‫طﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﺘﺤﻮﯾﻞ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﺷﺮ ﻟﻠﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻄﺒﯿﻌﻲ ‪: Direct Transformation‬‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﺴﺘﻌﺮض ﺧﻮارزم ﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪات ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻄﺒﯿﻌﻲ اﻟﻘﯿﺎﺳﻲ ﺑﺪون ان ﻧﺘﻄﺮق ﻟﻠﺨﻠﻔﯿﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺮﯾﺎﺿﯿﺔ ﻟﮫ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻌﻄﻰ رﻗﻤﯿﻦ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﯿﻦ )‪ R1 ~ U ( 0,1‬و )‪ R2 ~ U ( 0,1‬اﻟﺼﯿﻎ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﺗﻌﻄﻲ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪﺗﯿﻦ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ )‪Z ~ N ( 0,1‬‬

‫‪12‬‬
‫) ‪Z1 = ( −2ln R1 ) cos ( 2π R2‬‬
‫‪12‬‬
‫) ‪Z1 = ( −2ln R1 ) sin ( 2π R2‬‬
‫ﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ ) ‪ X ~ N ( µ , σ 2‬ﻧﺠﺮي اﻟﺘﺤﻮﯾﻞ ‪. X = µ + σ Z‬‬
‫‪112‬‬
‫طﺮق اﺧﺮى‪:‬‬
‫ھﻨﺎك اﻟﻜﺜﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻄﺮق ﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪات ﻣﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻣﻌﻄﻰ ﻻﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﻐﻄﯿﺘﮭﺎ ھﻨﺎ ﻛﻤﺎ اﻧﮫ‬
‫ﻻﯾﻠﺰم ﺗﻐﻄﯿﺘﮭﺎ ﻷن اﻟﻜﺜﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻮﻟﺪات ﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات ﻣﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻣﺒﺮﻣﺠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ ﺣﺰم‬
‫ﺑﺮاﻣﺞ اﻹﺣﺼﺎء وﺑﺤﻮث اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺎت وﺑﺮاﻣﺞ ﺻﻔﺤﺎت اﻟﻨﺸﺮ وھﻲ ﻋﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﺠﻮدة واﻟﻤﻮﺛﻮﻗﯿﺔ وﻗﺪ ﺗﻢ‬
‫إﺧﺘﺒﺎرھﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ اﻟﻜﺜﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﯿﻦ‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ ان ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﻄﺮق اﻟﻤﺬﻛﻮرة ﻓﻲ اﻟﻜﺘﺐ اﻟﻜﻼﺳﯿﻜﯿﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻣﺜﻞ طﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻹﻟﺘﻔﺎف ‪ Convolution Method‬وطﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﻘﺒﻮل واﻟﺮﻓﺾ‬
‫‪ Acceptance-Rejection Method‬ھﻲ طﺮق ﻏﯿﺮ ﻓﺎﻋﻠﺔ ‪ Unefficient‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﺎﺣﯿﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺨﻮارزﻣﯿﺔ وﻟﮭﺬا ﻟﻢ ﻧﺘﻄﺮق ﻟﮭﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻤﺮﯾﻦ‪:‬‬
‫وﻟﺪ ‪ 1000‬ﻣﺸﺎھﺪة ﻣﻦ ) ‪ X ~ N (160,9‬ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪. Excel‬‬
‫‪113‬‬
‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺴﺎدس‪:‬‬
‫ﻧﻤﺬﺟﺔ اﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼت ‪: Input Modeling‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺳﻮف ﻧﻘﻮم ﺑﺪراﺳﺔ ﻧﻤﺬﺟﺔ وﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼت‪ ،‬وھﻲ ﻣﻦ اھﻢ اﻟﺨﻄﻮات اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫ﺗﺘﺨﺬ ﻟﺒﻨﺎء اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج اﻟﺬي ﺳﻮف ﻧﺠﺮي ﻋﻠﯿﮫ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرب أﺛﻨﺎء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﻤﺬﺟﺔ وﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼت ﺗﺸﻤﻞ ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢ وأﺧﺬ ﻋﯿﻨﺎت ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﻤﺮاد ﻧﻤﺬﺟﺘﺔ ﺛﻢ ﺗﻘﺪﯾﺮ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻌﺎت‬
‫اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺼﺮف اﻟﻨﻈﺎم وﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ ﺗﻮزﯾﻌﺎت ﻧﻈﺮﯾﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪة إذا‬
‫أﻣﻜﻦ ذﻟﻚ‪ ،‬ﻓﺎﺋﺪة اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻌﺎت اﻟﻨﻈﺮﯾﺔ ھﻮ إﻣﻜﺎﻧﯿﺔ إﺟﺮاء ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺣﺴﺎﺳﯿﺔ ‪Sensitivity Analysis‬‬
‫ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم وﻟﻜﻦ إذا ﺗﻌﺬر ﺗﻘﺪﯾﺮھﺎ أي ﻟﻢ ﻧﺘﻤﻜﻦ ﻣﻦ إﯾﺠﺎد ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻧﻈﺮي ﯾﻨﻄﺒﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات‬
‫وﯾﺠﺘﺎز إﺧﺘﺒﺎرات ﺣﺴﻦ اﻟﺘﻄﺒﯿﻖ ‪ Goodness of Fit Tests‬ﻓﺈﻧﮫ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﻓﻲ ھﺬه اﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ إﺳﺘﺨﺪام‬
‫اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻌﺎت اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﺒﺎﺣﺜﯿﻦ ﯾﻔﻀﻞ إﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻌﺎت اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ أﺻﻼ ﻷﻧﮭﺎ ﺗﻤﺜﻞ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‬
‫اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﻲ أﻓﻀﻞ وﺧﺎﺻﺔ إذا ﺟﻤﻌﺖ اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺎت ﺑﻌﻨﺎﯾﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻻﻧﺘﻄﺮق إﻟﻰ ﺗﺼﻤﯿﻢ وأﺧﺬ اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺎت ﻷن ھﺬا ﻣﻮﺿﻮع ﯾﺸﻤﻞ دراﺳﺔ طﺮق اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ وھﻮ‬
‫ﻣﻮﺿﻮع ﻣﺎدة ﻛﺎﻣﻠﺔ ﺗﺪرس ﺿﻤﻦ ﻋﻠﻢ اﻹﺣﺼﺎء‪ ،‬ﺳﻮف ﻧﻔﺘﺮض ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻤﻘﺮر أﻧﮫ ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﻟﺪﯾﻨﺎ‬
‫ﻣﺸﺎھﺪات ﺟﺎھﺰة وﻗﺪ ﺗﻤﺖ ﻣﻌﺎﯾﻨﺘﮭﺎ ) أي ﻣﺸﺮوع ﻓﻲ ﺑﺤﻮث اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺎت ﻻﺑﺪ ان ﯾﻘﻮم ﺑﮫ ﻓﺮﯾﻖ ﯾﺸﻤﻞ‬
‫ﻣﺘﺨﺼﺼﯿﻦ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺠﺎﻻت ﺑﺤﻮث اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺎت واﻹﺣﺼﺎء واﻟﺤﺎﺳﺐ وأي ﺗﺨﺼﺺ ﺿﺮوري ﻟﮫ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﻲ ﻓﺈذا ﻛﺎن اﻟﻨﻈﺎم إﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﻣﺜﻼ ﻓﯿﺠﺐ ان ﯾﻜﻮن ﻓﻲ اﻟﻔﺮﯾﻖ أﺣﺪ اﻟﻤﺘﺨﺼﺼﯿﻦ ﻓﻲ‬
‫اﻹﻗﺘﺼﺎد (‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﺘﻌﺮف ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات‪:‬‬

‫إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻟﺪﯾﻨﺎ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪات ﻓﺈن اول ﺧﻄﻮة ﻧﻘﻮم ﺑﮭﺎ ھﻲ إﯾﺠﺎد ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﯾﻨﻄﺒﻖ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ وذﻟﻚ‬
‫ﺑﺘﻘﺪﯾﺮ ﻣﻌﺎﻟﻢ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ‪ ،‬وﻟﻜﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ أن ﻧﻘﻮم ﺑﺬﻟﻚ ﻋﻠﯿﻨﺎ اﻟﺘﻌﺮف ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻜﻞ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ وذﻟﻚ ﺑﺈﯾﺠﺎد‬
‫اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري أو اﻟﻤﻀﻠﻊ اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري ‪ Histogram‬واﻟﺬي ﯾﻌﺘﺒﺮ ﻣﻘﺪرا اوﻟﻲ ﻟﺪاﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺘﻠﺔ‬
‫اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات ﻣﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻣﻨﻔﺼﻞ او داﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات ﻣﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻣﺘﺼﻞ‪.‬‬
‫وﻧﻘﻮم ﺑﺈﻧﺸﺎء اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ (1‬ﻗﺴﻢ ﻣﺠﺎل اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات إﻟﻰ ﻓﺘﺮات ﻣﺘﺴﺎوﯾﺔ ذات ﻋﺪد ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (2‬ﻣﺜﻞ ھﺬه اﻟﻔﺘﺮات ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﺤﻮر اﻷﻓﻘﻲ‪.‬‬
‫‪ (3‬ﻋﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﻜﺮاراﻟﻨﺴﺒﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ ﻓﺘﺮة‪.‬‬
‫‪ (4‬ﻗﺴﻢ إﺣﺪاﺛﯿﺎت اﻟﻤﺤﻮر اﻟﺮأﺳﻲ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﯾﻤﺜﻞ اﻟﺘﻜﺮارات اﻟﻨﺴﺒﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪114‬‬
‫‪ (5‬أرﺳﻢ اﻟﺘﻜﺮارات اﻟﻨﺴﺒﯿﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻓﺘﺮة‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﺪد اﻟﻔﺘﺮات ﯾﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺠﻢ اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ وﻋﻠﻰ إﻧﺘﺸﺎر اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات‪ ،‬ﻓﺈذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ اﻟﻔﺘﺮات ﻋﺮﯾﻀﺔ‬
‫وﻗﻠﯿﻠﺔ ﻓﺈن اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري ﺳﯿﺒﺪو ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﻔﺼﻞ و ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺑﻠﻮﻛﺎت وﺑﮭﺬا ﻓﺈن ﺷﻜﻠﮫ‬
‫وﺗﻔﺎﺻﯿﻠﮫ ﻟﻦ ﺗﻜﻮن واﺿﺤﺔ‪ ،‬أﻣﺎ إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ اﻟﻔﺘﺮات ﺿﯿﻘﺔ ﺟﺪا وﻛﺜﯿﺮة ﻓﺈن اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري‬
‫ﺳﯿﺒﺪو ﺧﺸﻦ ﻛﺜﯿﺮ اﻟﺘﻔﺎﺻﯿﻞ وﻟﻦ ﯾﻤﮭﺪ اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات‪ .‬ھﻨﺎك ﻗﺎﻋﺪة ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺒﯿﺔ ﻷﺣﺠﺎم اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ واﻟﻜﺒﯿﺮة وھﻮ أﺧﺬ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻔﺘﺮات ﯾﺴﺎوي اﻟﺠﺬر اﻟﺘﺮﺑﯿﻌﻲ ﻟﺤﺠﻢ اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات‪ .‬اﻟﻤﺜﺎل‬
‫اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﯾﺒﯿﻦ أﺛﺮ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻔﺘﺮات ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻜﻞ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل‪ :‬ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻔﺌﺎت ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻜﻞ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري‪:‬‬
‫اﻷﺷﻜﺎل اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﺗﺒﯿﻦ أﺛﺮ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻔﺌﺎت ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻜﻞ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺎھﺪات اﻟﻤﺘﺼﻠﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪115‬‬
‫اﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﯾﺒﯿﻦ أﺛﺮ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻔﺘﺮات ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻜﻞ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺎھﺪات اﻟﻤﻨﻔﺼﻠﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪116‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات اﻟﻤﻨﻔﺼﻠﺔ ﻻﺗﻌﺎﻧﻲ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺸﺎﻛﻞ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻔﺘﺮات ﺧﺎﺻﺔ إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﻤﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ‬
‫اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ اﻟﻤﻨﻔﺼﻞ ﻗﻠﯿﻠﺔ‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﺘﻌﺮف ﻋﻠﻰ وإﺧﺘﯿﺎر اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات‪:‬‬

‫ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﻣﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﺷﻜﻞ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺮف اﻟﻤﺒﺪﺋﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻜﻞ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻨﻈﺮي اﻟﻤﻘﺘﺮح‬
‫وﻣﻦ ﺛﻢ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﻘﺘﺮح ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات او اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري وإﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﺣﺴﻦ اﻟﺘﻄﺎﺑﻖ‬
‫ﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ أﺣﺪ اﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎرات ﻣﺜﻞ إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻛﻮﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮروف – ﺳﻤﯿﺮﻧﻮف أو إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻛﺎي‪.‬‬
‫ھﻨﺎك اﻟﻜﺜﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻌﺎت اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺮﯾﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻄﺒﻖ ﻋﺎدة ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪة وﻣﻦ أھﻢ‬
‫ھﺬه اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻌﺎت وأﻛﺜﺮھﺎ إﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﺎ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ (1‬ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ذات اﻟﺤﺪﯾﻦ ‪ : Binomial‬وﯾﻨﻤﺬج ﻋﺪد ﻣﺮات اﻟﻨﺠﺎح ﻓﻲ ‪ n‬ﻣﺤﺎوﻟﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﺮط‬
‫ان ﺗﻜﻮن اﻟﻤﺤﺎوﻻت ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ وﻟﮭﺎ ﻧﻔﺲ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎل‪ .‬وﻧﻘﻮل ان اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ اﻟﻤﻨﻔﺼﻞ‬
‫‪ X‬ﻟﮫ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ذات اﻟﺤﺪﯾﻦ إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ داﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺘﻠﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﮫ ھﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ n  x‬‬
‫‪  p (1 − p ) , x = 0,1, 2,..., n ; 0 ≤ p ≤ 1, n = 1, 2,...‬‬
‫‪n−x‬‬
‫‪P ( X = x ) = p ( x ) =  x ‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪otherwise‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪0,‬‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻟﻢ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ ھﻲ ‪ n, p‬وﻟﮫ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻣﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ )ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ( وﺗﺒﺎﯾﻦ‬

‫) ‪E ( X ) = np, V ( X ) = np (1 − p‬‬
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‫وﺷﻜﻞ داﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺘﻠﺔ ﻟﮫ ھﻲ‬
‫‪Binomial pmf‬‬
‫‪0.3‬‬
‫‪0.25‬‬
‫‪0.2‬‬
‫‪0.15‬‬
‫‪0.1‬‬
‫‪0.05‬‬
‫‪0‬‬
‫‪ (2‬ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ذات اﻟﺤﺪﯾﻦ اﻟﺴﺎﻟﺐ ‪ : Negative Binomial‬وﺗﺸﻤﻞ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﮭﻨﺪﺳﻲ‬

‫‪ Geometric Distribution‬ﻛﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ وﺗﻨﻤﺬج ﻋﺪد اﻟﻤﺤﺎوﻻت اﻟﻤﺒﺬوﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮل‬
‫ﻋﻠﻲ ﻋﺪد ‪ k‬ﻧﺠﺎح ) ﻟﻠﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﮭﻨﺪﺳﻲ ‪ .( k = 1‬وﻧﻘﻮل ان اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ اﻟﻤﻨﻔﺼﻞ‬
‫‪ X‬ﻟﮫ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ذات اﻟﺤﺪﯾﻦ اﻟﺴﺎﻟﺒﺔ إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ داﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺘﻠﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﮫ ھﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ x + k − 1 k‬‬ ‫‪x‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬ ‫‪p (1 − p ) , x = 0,1,...; 0 ≤ p ≤ 1, k = 1, 2,...‬‬
‫‪p ( x ) =  x‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪ 0,‬‬ ‫‪otherwise‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻟﻢ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ ھﻲ ‪ k , p‬اﻟﺘﻮﻗﻊ واﻟﺘﺒﺎﯾﻦ ھﻤﺎ‬

‫) ‪k (1 − p‬‬ ‫) ‪k (1 − p‬‬
‫= ) ‪E(X‬‬ ‫= ) ‪, V (X‬‬
‫‪p‬‬ ‫‪p2‬‬
‫‪Negative B ino mial pmf with k=5‬‬
‫‪0.3‬‬
‫‪0.25‬‬
‫‪0.2‬‬
‫‪0.15‬‬
‫‪0.1‬‬
‫‪0.05‬‬
‫‪0‬‬
‫ﻛﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻣﻦ ھﺬا اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ ھﻲ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﮭﻨﺪﺳﻲ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ‪k = 1‬‬
‫‪118‬‬
‫‪ p (1 − p ) , x = 0,1,...; 0 ≤ p ≤ 1‬‬
‫‪x −1‬‬
‫‪p ( x) = ‬‬
‫‪0,‬‬ ‫‪otherwise‬‬
‫‪Geometric pmf‬‬
‫‪0.8‬‬
‫‪0.7‬‬
‫‪0.6‬‬
‫‪0.5‬‬
‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪0.3‬‬
‫‪0.2‬‬
‫‪0.1‬‬
‫‪0‬‬
‫‪ (3‬ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﺑﻮاﺳﻮن ‪ : Poisson‬وﯾﻨﻤﺬج ﻋﺪد اﻷﺣﺪاث اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺤﺪث ﻓﻲ ﻓﺘﺮة زﻣﻨﯿﺔ‬
‫ﺛﺎﺑﺘﺔ أو ﻓﺴﺤﺔ ﻣﻜﺎﻧﯿﺔ ﺛﺎﺑﺘﺔ‪ .‬وﻧﻘﻮل ان اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ اﻟﻤﻨﻔﺼﻞ ‪ X‬ﻟﮫ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﺑﻮاﺳﻮن‬
‫إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ داﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺘﻠﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﮫ ھﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪α x −α‬‬
‫‪ e , x = 0,1,...; α > 0‬‬
‫!‪p ( x ) =  x‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫ﻣﻌﻠﻢ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ ھﻮ ‪ ، α > 0‬اﻟﺘﻮﻗﻊ واﻟﺘﺒﺎﯾﻦ ھﻤﺎ‬
‫‪E(X ) =V (X ) =α‬‬
‫وداﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺘﻠﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﮫ ﻟﮭﺎ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬

‫‪P o isso n pmf‬‬
‫‪0.3‬‬
‫‪0.25‬‬
‫‪0.2‬‬
‫‪0.15‬‬
‫‪0.1‬‬
‫‪0.05‬‬
‫‪0‬‬
‫‪ (4‬اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻄﺒﯿﻌﻲ ‪ : Normal‬وﯾﻨﻤﺬج ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺔ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ إﻋﺘﺒﺎرھﺎ ﻛﻤﺠﻤﻮع ﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺎت‬

‫ﺟﺰﺋﯿﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻤﺜﻼ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻐﺮق ﻟﺼﻨﻊ ﺳﯿﺎرة ھﻮ ﻣﺠﻤﻮع اﻷزﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺴﺘﻐﺮﻗﮭﺎ ﺗﺼﻨﯿﻊ‬
‫‪119‬‬
‫ﻛﻞ ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﻓﯿﮭﺎ‪ .‬ﻻﺣﻆ ان اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻄﺒﯿﻌﻲ ﻗﺪ ﯾﻌﻄﻲ ﻗﯿﻢ ﺳﺎﻟﺒﺔ واﻟﺘﻲ ھﻲ ﻣﺴﺘﺤﯿﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﺰﻣﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻐﺮق ﻟﺼﻨﻊ ﺳﯿﺎرة‪ .‬ﻧﻘﻮل ان اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ اﻟﻤﺘﺼﻞ ‪ X‬ﻟﮫ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ طﺒﯿﻌﻲ إذا‬
‫ﻛﺎﻧﺖ داﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﮫ ھﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪−‬‬ ‫‪( x − µ )2‬‬
‫= )‪f ( x‬‬ ‫‪e‬‬ ‫‪2σ 2‬‬
‫‪, − ∞ < x < ∞ ; − ∞ < µ < ∞, σ 2 > 0‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪2πσ‬‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻟﻢ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ھﻤﺎ ‪ ، − ∞ < µ < ∞, σ 2 > 0‬وﻟﮫ ﺗﻮﻗﻊ وﺗﺒﺎﯾﻦ ‪E ( X ) = µ , V ( X ) = σ 2‬‬
‫ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ھﻲ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻄﺒﯿﻌﻲ اﻟﻘﯿﺎﺳﻲ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﻜﻮن ‪. µ = 0, σ 2 = 1‬‬

‫وداﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﮫ ﻟﮭﺎ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪:‬‬
‫)‪N (0,1‬‬
‫‪0.0045‬‬
‫‪0.004‬‬
‫‪0.0035‬‬
‫‪0.003‬‬
‫‪0.0025‬‬
‫‪0.002‬‬
‫‪0.0015‬‬
‫‪0.001‬‬
‫‪0.0005‬‬
‫‪0‬‬
‫‪ (5‬اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻄﺒﯿﻌﻲ اﻟﻠﻮﻏﺎرﺛﻤﻲ ‪ : Lognormal‬وﯾﻨﻤﺬج ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺔ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ إﻋﺘﺒﺎرھﺎ‬

‫ﻛﺘﻀﺎﻋﻒ ﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺎت ﺟﺰﺋﯿﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻤﺜﻼ ﻣﻌﺪل اﻟﺪﺧﻞ ﻣﻦ إﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﺮﻛﺐ اﻟﺮﺑﺢ ھﻮ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ‬
‫ﺿﺮب اﻟﺪﺧﻮل ﻋﻠﻲ ﻋﺪد ﻣﻦ اﻟﻔﺘﺮات‪ .‬ﻧﻘﻮل ان اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ اﻟﻤﺘﺼﻞ ‪ X‬ﻟﮫ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ‬
‫طﺒﯿﻌﻲ ﻟﻮﻏﺎرﺛﻤﻲ إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ داﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﮫ ھﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪−‬‬ ‫‪( log x − µ )2‬‬
‫‪2σ 2‬‬
‫= )‪f ( x‬‬ ‫‪e‬‬ ‫‪, x > 0 ; µ > 0, σ 2 > 0‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪x 2πσ‬‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻟﻢ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ھﻤﺎ ‪ ، µ > 0, σ 2 > 0‬وﻟﮫ ﺗﻮﻗﻊ وﺗﺒﺎﯾﻦ‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫‪µ+ σ 2‬‬ ‫(‬
‫‪2 µ +σ 2‬‬ ‫)‬ ‫) ‪( 2 µ +σ‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪E(X ) = e‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬

‫‪, V (X ) =e‬‬ ‫‪−e‬‬
‫‪120‬‬
‫‪Lognormal‬‬
‫‪0.7‬‬
‫‪0.6‬‬
‫‪0.5‬‬
‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪0.3‬‬
‫‪0.2‬‬
‫‪0.1‬‬
‫‪0‬‬
‫‪ (6‬اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻷﺳﻲ ‪ : Exponential‬وﯾﻨﻤﺬج أزﻣﻨﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ أﺣﺪاث ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ‪ .‬ﻧﻘﻮل ان اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ‬

‫اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ اﻟﻤﺘﺼﻞ ‪ X‬ﻟﮫ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﺳﻲ إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ داﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ وداﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ ﻟﮫ‬
‫ھﻤﺎ‪:‬‬
‫‪λ e − λ x , x ≥ 0; λ > 0‬‬
‫‪f ( x) = ‬‬
‫‪ 0,‬‬ ‫‪otherwise‬‬
‫‪ 0,‬‬ ‫‪x<0‬‬

‫‪F ( x) = ‬‬
‫‪1 − e , x ≥ 0‬‬
‫‪−λ x‬‬
‫ﻣﻌﻠﻢ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ ھﻮ ‪ ، λ > 0‬وﻟﮫ ﺗﻮﻗﻊ وﺗﺒﺎﯾﻦ‬

‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫= ) ‪E(X‬‬ ‫‪, V (X ) = 2‬‬
‫‪λ‬‬ ‫‪λ‬‬
‫‪Exponential‬‬
‫‪2.5‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪1.5‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪0.5‬‬
‫‪0‬‬
‫‪ (7‬ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﺟﺎﻣﺎ ‪ : Gamma‬وھﻮ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﺮن ﺟﺪا ﯾﻨﻤﺬج اي ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻏﯿﺮ ﺳﺎﻟﺐ‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ اﻟﻤﺘﺼﻞ ‪ X‬ﻟﮫ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﺟﺎﻣﺎ إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ داﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ وداﻟﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ ﻟﮫ ھﻤﺎ‪:‬‬
‫‪121‬‬
‫‪ βθ‬‬ ‫‪β −1 − βθ x‬‬
‫‪ Γ β ( βθ x ) e , x > 0; β > 0, θ > 0‬‬
‫) ( ‪f ( x) = ‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪∞ βθ‬‬

‫‪1 − ∫x Γ β ( βθ t ) e dt ,‬‬
‫‪β −1 − βθ t‬‬
‫‪x>0‬‬
‫‪F ( x) = ‬‬ ‫) (‬
‫‪‬‬
‫اﻟﺪاﻟﺔ ‪ Γ ( β ) = ∫0 x β −1e− x dx‬ﺗﺴﻤﻰ داﻟﺔ ﺟﺎﻣﺎ وﻓﻲ اﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﻜﻮن ‪ β‬ﻋﺪد ﺻﺤﯿﺢ ﻓﺈن‬
‫∞‬
‫!)‪ ، Γ ( β ) = ( β − 1‬ﻣﻌﺎﻟﻢ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ ھﻲ ‪ ، β > 0, θ > 0‬وﻟﮫ ﺗﻮﻗﻊ وﺗﺒﺎﯾﻦ‬

‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫= ) ‪E(X‬‬ ‫= ) ‪, V (X‬‬
‫‪θ‬‬ ‫‪βθ 2‬‬
‫ﯾﻤﻜﻦ إزاﺣﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ ﻋﻦ اﻟﺼﻔﺮ ﺑﺈﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ‪ .‬وداﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﮫ ﻟﮭﺎ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪:‬‬
‫‪Gamma‬‬
‫‪ (8‬ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﺑﯿﺘﺎ ‪ : Beta‬وھﻮ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﺮن ﺟﺪا ﯾﻨﻤﺬج اي ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻣﺤﺪود ) أي ﻟﮫ‬
‫ﺣﺪود ﻋﻠﯿﺎ ودﻧﯿﺎ ﺛﺎﺑﺘﺔ (‪ .‬اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ اﻟﻤﺘﺼﻞ ‪ X‬ﻟﮫ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﺑﯿﺘﺎ إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ داﻟﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﮫ ھﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ 1‬‬ ‫‪β −1‬‬
‫‪ Β α , β x (1 − x ) , 0 < x < 1; α , β = 1, 2,...‬‬
‫‪α −1‬‬
‫( ‪f ( x) = ‬‬ ‫)‬
‫‪‬‬
‫) ‪Γ (α ) Γ ( β‬‬
‫= ) ‪ Β (α , β‬ﻟﻘﯿﻢ ‪ α‬و ‪ β‬ﻣﻮﺟﺒﺔ وﺻﺤﯿﺤﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﺎﻟﻢ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ ھﻲ ‪ α‬و‬ ‫اﻟﺪاﻟﺔ‬
‫) ‪Γ (α + β‬‬
‫‪ ، β‬اﻟﺘﻮﻗﻊ واﻟﺘﺒﺎﯾﻦ ھﻤﺎ‬

‫‪α‬‬ ‫‪αβ‬‬
‫= ) ‪E(X‬‬ ‫=) ‪, V (X‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪α +β‬‬ ‫)‪(α + β ) (α + β + 1‬‬
‫‪122‬‬
‫ﯾﻤﻜﻦ إزاﺣﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ ﻋﻦ اﻟﺼﻔﺮ ﺑﺈﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ﻛﻤﺎ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﻮﺳﯿﻊ ﻣﺠﺎﻟﮭﺎ ﻣﻦ ]‪ [ 0,1‬ﺑﺎﻟﻀﺮب‬
‫ﺑﺜﺎﺑﺖ‪ .‬وداﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﮫ ﻟﮭﺎ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪:‬‬
‫‪Beta‬‬
‫‪0.06‬‬
‫‪0.05‬‬
‫‪0.04‬‬
‫‪0.03‬‬
‫‪0.02‬‬
‫‪0.01‬‬
‫‪0‬‬
‫‪ (9‬ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ إرﻻﻧﺞ ‪ : Erlang‬وﯾﻨﻤﺬج ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺔ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ إﻋﺘﺒﺎرھﺎ ﻛﻤﺠﻤﻮع ﻟﻌﺪة ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺎت ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﮭﺎ‬
‫ﻟﮫ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﺳﻲ‪ .‬اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ اﻟﻤﺘﺼﻞ ‪ X‬ﻟﮫ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ إرﻻﻧﺞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺪرﺟﺔ ‪ k‬ﺣﯿﺚ‬
‫‪ k = 1, 2,...‬إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ داﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﮫ ھﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ kθ‬‬ ‫‪k −1 − kθ x‬‬
‫‪ k − 1 ! ( kθ x ) e , x > 0 ; k = 1, 2,..., θ > 0‬‬
‫(‪f ( x) = ‬‬ ‫)‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫وھﺬا ﯾﻌﻨﻲ أن ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ إرﻻﻧﺞ‬ ‫ﻻﺣﻆ ان ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ‪ k = 1‬ﻓﺈن ھﺬا اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ ﯾﺼﺒﺢ اﺳﻲ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫‪θ‬‬
‫ﯾﻤﻜﻦ إﻋﺘﺒﺎرة ﺗﻮزﯾﻌﺎ ﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ھﻮ ﻋﺒﺎرة ﻋﻦ ﻣﺠﻤﻮع ‪ k‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻘﻠﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﻟﻜﻞ واﺣﺪ ﻣﻨﮭﺎ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﺳﻲ‪ .‬ﻣﻌﺎﻟﻢ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ إرﻻﻧﺞ ھﻤﺎ ‪ k‬و ‪ θ‬واﻟﺘﻮﻗﻊ واﻟﺘﺒﺎﯾﻦ‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫= ) ‪ . E ( X ) = , V ( X‬وداﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﮫ ﻟﮭﺎ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪:‬‬ ‫ھﻤﺎ‬
‫‪θ‬‬ ‫‪kθ 2‬‬
‫‪Erlang‬‬
‫‪0.6‬‬
‫‪0.5‬‬
‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪0.3‬‬
‫‪0.2‬‬
‫‪0.1‬‬
‫‪0‬‬
‫ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ وﯾﺒﻞ ‪ :Weibull‬وﯾﻨﻤﺬج اﻟﺰﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻐﺮق ﺣﺘﻰ ﯾﺤﺪث ﻓﺸﻞ ﻟﻤﺮﻛﺒﺔ‬ ‫‪(10‬‬
‫‪ .Time-to-failure‬ﻓﻤﺜﻼ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻐﺮق ﺣﺘﻲ ﯾﺘﻌﻄﻞ ﺟﮭﺎز اﻟﺘﻜﯿﯿﻒ‪ .‬اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ‬
‫‪123‬‬
‫اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ اﻟﻤﺘﺼﻞ ‪ X‬ﻟﮫ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ وﯾﺒﻞ إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ داﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ وداﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ ﻟﮫ‬
‫ھﻤﺎ‪:‬‬
‫‪ β  x −ν  β −1 − x −ν ‬‬
‫‪β‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪e  α  , x ≥ ν ; −∞ < ν < ∞, α > 0, β > 0‬‬

‫‪f ( x ) =  α  α ‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪ 0,‬‬ ‫‪x <ν‬‬

‫‪‬‬
‫‪F ( x) = ‬‬ ‫‪ x −ν ‬‬
‫‪−‬‬
‫‪β‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪1 − e  α  , x ≥ ν‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﻌﺎﻟﻢ اﻟﺜﻼﺛﺔ ∞ < ‪ −∞ < ν‬ﻣﻌﻠﻢ اﻟﻤﻜﺎن ‪ Location Parameter‬و ‪ α > 0‬ﻣﻌﻠﻢ اﻟﻘﯿﺎس‬
‫‪ Scale Parameter‬و ‪ β > 0‬ﻣﻌﻠﻢ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ ‪ . Shape Parameter‬اﻟﺘﻮﻗﻊ واﻟﺘﺒﺎﯾﻦ ھﻤﺎ‬
‫‪1 ‬‬ ‫‪ 2   1‬‬ ‫‪ ‬‬

‫‪2‬‬
‫‪E ( X ) = ν + α Γ  + 1 , V ( X ) = α  Γ  + 1 −  Γ  + 1  ‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪β ‬‬ ‫‪  β‬‬ ‫‪   β   ‬‬
‫وداﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﮫ ھﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪Weibull‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪1.8‬‬
‫‪1.6‬‬
‫‪1.4‬‬
‫‪1.2‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪0.8‬‬
‫‪0.6‬‬
‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪0.2‬‬
‫‪0‬‬
‫اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎوي اﻟﻤﺘﺼﻞ أو اﻟﻤﻨﻔﺼﻞ ‪Discrete or Continuous‬‬ ‫‪(11‬‬

‫‪ : Uniform‬وﯾﻨﻤﺬج ﻋﺪم اﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ اﻟﺘﺎم إذ ان ﺟﻤﯿﻊ اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﻤﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻟﮭﺎ ﻧﻔﺲ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎل‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ اﻟﻤﺘﺼﻞ ‪ X‬ﻟﮫ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﺘﺴﺎوي إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ داﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ وداﻟﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ ﻟﮫ ھﻤﺎ‪:‬‬
‫‪ 1‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫∞ < ‪, a ≤ x ≤ b ; −∞ < a < b‬‬
‫‪f ( x) = b − a‬‬
‫‪ 0,‬‬ ‫‪otherwise‬‬
‫‪124‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪ 0,‬‬ ‫‪x<a‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪x−a‬‬
‫‪F ( x) = ‬‬ ‫‪,‬‬ ‫‪a≤ x≤b‬‬
‫‪b − a‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪ 1,‬‬ ‫‪x≥b‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫= ) ‪.E(X‬‬
‫‪a+b‬‬
‫= ) ‪, V (X‬‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻟﻢ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ ھﻲ ‪ a‬و ‪ ، b‬اﻟﺘﻮﻗﻊ واﻟﺘﺒﺎﯾﻦ ھﻤﺎ ) ‪( b − a‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫داﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎوي اﻟﻤﺘﺼﻞ واﻟﻤﻨﻔﺼﻞ‬
‫‪Unif orm‬‬
‫‪1.2‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪0.8‬‬
‫‪0.6‬‬
‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪0.2‬‬
‫‪0‬‬
‫داﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺘﻠﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎوي اﻟﻤﻨﻔﺼﻞ‬

‫‪Uniform‬‬
‫‪1.2‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪0.8‬‬
‫‪0.6‬‬
‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪0.2‬‬
‫‪0‬‬
‫اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺜﻠﺜﻲ ‪ : Triangular‬وﯾﻨﻤﺬج ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺎت ﻻﻧﻌﺮف ﻋﻨﮭﺎ ﻏﯿﺮ اﻟﻘﯿﻢ‬ ‫‪(12‬‬

‫اﻟﺼﻐﺮى واﻟﻜﺒﺮى واﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺣﺪوﺛﺎ )اﻟﻤﻨﻮال(‪ .‬اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ اﻟﻤﺘﺼﻞ ‪ X‬ﻟﮫ‬
‫ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﺘﺴﺎوي إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ داﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ وداﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ ﻟﮫ ھﻤﺎ‪:‬‬
‫)‪ 2( x − a‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪, a≤ x≤b‬‬
‫) ‪ ( b − a )( c − a‬‬
‫)‪ 2 (c − x‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪f ( x) = ‬‬ ‫‪, b< x≤c‬‬
‫) ‪ ( c − b )( c − a‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪125‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪ 0,‬‬ ‫‪x≤a‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫)‪ ( x − a‬‬ ‫‪,‬‬ ‫‪a< x≤b‬‬
‫) ‪ ( b − a )( c − a‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪F ( x) = ‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫(‬ ‫)‪c − x‬‬
‫‪1 − c − b c − a , b < x ≤ c‬‬
‫( ‪‬‬ ‫()‬ ‫)‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪ 1,‬‬ ‫‪x>c‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻟﻢ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ ∞ < ‪ −∞ < a‬ﯾﻤﺜﻞ اﻗﻞ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ‪ X‬و اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ‬
‫∞ < ‪ −∞ < b‬ﯾﻤﺜﻞ اﻛﺒﺮﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ‪ X‬و اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ ∞ < ‪ −∞ < c‬ﯾﻤﺜﻞ‬
‫اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺣﺪوﺛﺎ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ‪ X‬ﺣﯿﺚ ‪ a ≤ b ≤ c‬اﻟﺘﻮﻗﻊ اﻟﺘﺒﺎﯾﻦ ھﻤﺎ‬
‫‪a+b+c‬‬ ‫‪19‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬
‫= ) ‪E(X‬‬ ‫) ‪, V ( X ) = ( a 2 + b 2 + c 2 ) + ( ab + ac + bc‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪18‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬
‫وﺷﻜﻞ داﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ ﻟﮫ ھﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪Triangular‬‬
‫‪0.6‬‬
‫‪0.5‬‬
‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪0.3‬‬
‫‪0.2‬‬
‫‪0.1‬‬
‫‪0‬‬
‫اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﻲ ‪ : Empirical‬إﻋﺎدة اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻔﺲ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻌﺔ‬ ‫‪(13‬‬

‫وﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻋﺎدة ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻻﻧﺠﺪ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻧﻈﺮي ﯾﻨﻄﺒﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات‪ .‬وﻗﺪ ﺗﻄﺮﻗﻨﺎ ﻟﻌﺪة أﻣﺜﻠﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻨﮫ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻔﺼﻮل اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻘﺪﯾﺮ اﻟﻤﻌﺎﻟﻢ ‪: Parameters Estimation‬‬

‫ﺑﻌﺪ اﻟﺘﻌﺮف ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﻘﺘﺮح‪ ،‬ﻧﻘﻮم ﺑﺘﻘﺪﯾﺮ ﻣﻌﺎﻟﻢ ھﺬا اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﺮق اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻌﺮوﻓﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﻤﻦ اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات اﻟﻤﻌﻄﺎة وﺑﻌﺪ اﻟﺘﻌﺮف ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻜﻞ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﺮق اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻧﻘﻮم ﺑﺘﻘﺪﯾﺮ ﻣﻌﺎﻟﻤﮫ‪،‬‬
‫وﻣﻦ أھﻢ ھﺬه اﻟﻤﻌﺎﻟﻢ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ وﺗﺒﺎﯾﻦ اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻌﻄﻰ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎت‪:‬‬
‫‪126‬‬
‫ﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ ﺣﺠﻤﮭﺎ ‪ n‬ﻣﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ‪ X‬واﻟﺘﻲ ﻧﺮﻣﺰ ﻟﮭﺎ } ‪ { x1 , x2 ,..., xn‬ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ ھﻮ‬
‫‪1 n‬‬
‫=‪x‬‬ ‫‪∑ xi‬‬
‫‪n i =1‬‬
‫وﺗﺒﺎﯾﻦ اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ ھﻮ‬
‫‪1  n 2‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫= ‪s2‬‬ ‫‪‬‬ ‫∑‬ ‫‪xi − nx 2 ‬‬
‫‪n − 1  i =1‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫وﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات ﻣﺠﻤﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻓﺌﺎت ﺗﻜﺮارﯾﺔ ﻓﺈن اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ھﻮ‬

‫‪k‬‬ ‫‪n‬‬
‫=‪x‬‬
‫∑‬ ‫‪i =1‬‬
‫‪f i xi‬‬
‫=‬
‫∑‬ ‫‪i =1‬‬
‫‪f i xi‬‬
‫‪k‬‬
‫∑‬ ‫‪i =1‬‬
‫‪fi‬‬ ‫‪n‬‬
‫ﺣﯿﺚ ‪ fi‬ﺗﻜﺮار اﻟﻔﺌﺔ رﻗﻢ ‪ i‬و ‪ k‬ﻋﺪد اﻟﻔﺌﺎت‪ ،‬وﺗﺒﺎﯾﻦ‬

‫‪1  k‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫= ‪s2‬‬ ‫‪‬‬ ‫∑‬ ‫‪fi xi2 − nx 2 ‬‬
‫‪n − 1  i =1‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﻤﻘﺪرات اﻟﻤﻘﺘﺮﺣﺔ ﻟﺒﻌﺾ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻌﺎت‪:‬‬

‫اﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﯾﺒﯿﻦ ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻌﺎت اﻟﻤﮭﻤﺔ وﻣﻌﺎﻟﻤﮭﺎ واﻟﻤﻘﺪرات اﻟﻤﻘﺘﺮﺣﺔ ﻟﺘﻠﻚ اﻟﻤﻌﺎﻟﻢ‪:‬‬
‫‪Distribution‬‬ ‫‪Parameters‬‬ ‫‪Suggested Estimators‬‬
‫‪Poisson‬‬ ‫‪α‬‬ ‫‪αˆ = x‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪Exponential‬‬ ‫‪λ‬‬ ‫= ˆ‪λ‬‬
‫‪x‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪Gamma‬‬ ‫‪β ,θ‬‬ ‫‪βˆ = 0.105 + 0.504 ‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫‪ ln x − ∑ ln xi ‬‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪n i =1‬‬ ‫‪‬‬

‫‪1‬‬
‫=ˆ‪θ‬‬
‫‪x‬‬
‫‪n +1‬‬
‫‪Uniform‬‬ ‫‪b‬‬ ‫= ˆ‪b‬‬ ‫) ‪Max ( x‬‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫) ‪on ( 0, b‬‬
‫‪Normal‬‬ ‫‪µ ,σ 2‬‬ ‫‪µˆ = x , σˆ 2 = s 2‬‬
‫‪127‬‬
‫‪1β‬‬
‫‪1 n‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪Weibull‬‬ ‫‪α,β‬‬ ‫‪αˆ =  ∑ xiβ ‬‬
‫‪ i =1 ‬‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫‪with ν = 0‬‬
‫‪x‬‬
‫‪βˆ'0 = , βˆ j = βˆ j −1 −‬‬
‫(‬
‫‪f βˆ" j −1‬‬ ‫)‬
‫‪s‬‬ ‫(‬
‫‪f ′ βˆ" j −1‬‬ ‫)‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫‪n n‬‬ ‫‪n∑ i =1 xiβ lnxi‬‬
‫= ) ‪f (β‬‬ ‫‪+ ∑ lnxi −‬‬ ‫‪n‬‬
‫‪β i =1‬‬ ‫‪∑ xiβ‬‬ ‫‪i =1‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫‪n n∑ i =1 xi ( lnxi ) n‬‬
‫‪f ′( β ) = − 2 −‬‬
‫‪β‬‬
‫‪+‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫) ‪( ∑ x lnx‬‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫‪i =1 i‬‬
‫‪β‬‬
‫‪i‬‬
‫‪n‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪β‬‬ ‫‪∑ i=1 xiβ‬‬ ‫) ‪(∑ x‬‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫‪i =1 i‬‬
‫‪β‬‬
‫إﺧﺘﺒﺎرات ﺣﺴﻦ أو ﺟﻮدة اﻟﺘﻄﺎﺑﻖ ‪: Goodness of Fit Tests‬‬

‫اوﻻ‪ :‬رﺳﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﺮﺑﯿﻌﺎت‪-‬اﻟﺮﺑﯿﻌﺎت ‪: Quantile-Quantile Plots‬‬
‫إذا ﻛﺎن ‪ X‬ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻟﮫ داﻟﺔ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﺗﺮاﻛﻤﻲ ∞ < ‪ F ( x ) = P ( X ≤ x ) , − ∞ < x‬ﻓﺈن اﻟﺮﺑﯿﻊ‬
‫‪ q‬ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ‪ X‬ھﻮ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ ‪ γ‬ﺑﺤﯿﺚ ‪ F (γ ) = P ( X ≤ γ ) = q, 0 < q < 1‬إذا ﻛﺎن‬
‫ﻟﻠﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺮاﻛﻤﻲ ﻣﻘﻠﻮب ﻓﺈن ) ‪ . γ = F −1 ( q‬ﻟﯿﻜﻦ } ‪ { x1 , x2 ,..., xn‬ﻋﯿﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪: X‬‬
‫اﻟﺨﻄﻮة )‪ :(1‬رﺗﺐ اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات ﻣﻦ اﻷﺻﻐﺮ ﻟﻸﻛﺒﺮ وﻟﺘﻜﻦ ﺑﻌﺪ اﻟﺘﺮﺗﯿﺐ } )‪ { y(1) , y( 2) ,..., y( n‬ﺣﯿﺚ‬
‫)‪ y(1) ≤ y( 2) ≤ ... ≤ y( n‬ﻟﺘﻜﻦ ‪ j‬رﻗﻢ اﻟﺘﺮﺗﯿﺐ أي ان ‪ j = 1‬ﯾﺮﻣﺰ ﻟﻸﺻﻐﺮ و ‪ j = n‬ﺗﺮﻣﺰ ﻟﻸﻛﺒﺮ‪.‬‬
‫‪j − 0.5 ‬‬

‫‪. F −1 ‬‬ ‫اﻟﺨﻄﻮة )‪ :(2‬أﺣﺴﺐ ‪‬‬
‫‪ n ‬‬
‫‪j − 0.5 ‬‬
‫‪. F −1 ‬‬ ‫اﻟﺨﻄﻮة )‪ :(3‬أرﺳﻢ ‪ y j‬ﺿﺪ ‪‬‬
‫‪ n ‬‬
‫اﻟﺨﻄﻮة )‪ :(4‬إذا ﻛﺎن اﻟﺮﺳﻢ اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺒﺎ ﺧﻂ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﯿﻢ ﻟﮫ ﻣﯿﻞ ‪ 1‬ﺻﺤﯿﺢ ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺒﺎ ﻓﺈﻧﻨﺎ ﻧﺴﺘﻨﺘﺞ ان ‪X‬‬
‫ﯾﻨﻄﺒﻖ ﻋﻠﯿﮫ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ ) ‪. F ( x‬‬
‫رﺳﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﺮﺑﯿﻌﺎت‪-‬اﻟﺮﺑﯿﻌﺎت ‪ Quantile-Quantile Plots‬ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪Excel‬‬

‫ﯾﻌﺘﻘﺪ ان اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﺗﺄﺗﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﺳﻲ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪: 2‬‬
‫‪0.20692‬‬ ‫‪0.39297‬‬ ‫‪1.05554‬‬ ‫‪4.30203‬‬ ‫‪1.19646‬‬ ‫‪1.09374‬‬ ‫‪4.37080‬‬ ‫‪0.89192‬‬
‫‪0.58793‬‬ ‫‪1.49500‬‬ ‫‪0.44567‬‬ ‫‪2.49832‬‬ ‫‪2.00545‬‬ ‫‪1.97417‬‬ ‫‪1.28729‬‬ ‫‪0.75789‬‬
‫‪1.21450‬‬ ‫‪2.44013‬‬ ‫‪2.55631‬‬ ‫‪5.17293‬‬ ‫‪2.47376‬‬ ‫‪0.16207‬‬ ‫‪2.91489‬‬ ‫‪1.37260‬‬
‫‪0.41281‬‬ ‫‪1.92938‬‬ ‫‪1.59807‬‬ ‫‪3.51228‬‬ ‫‪1.14820‬‬ ‫‪0.67742‬‬ ‫‪1.34904‬‬ ‫‪0.94249‬‬
‫‪1.31682‬‬ ‫‪0.15600‬‬ ‫‪0.33593‬‬ ‫‪0.22544‬‬ ‫‪0.55138‬‬ ‫‪6.34901‬‬ ‫‪5.42604‬‬ ‫‪2.39745‬‬
‫‪0.29661‬‬ ‫‪5.91988‬‬ ‫‪6.20755‬‬ ‫‪6.50522‬‬ ‫‪4.09509‬‬ ‫‪3.61865‬‬ ‫‪5.78524‬‬ ‫‪3.28936‬‬
‫‪3.21539‬‬ ‫‪2.58200‬‬ ‫‪0.59653‬‬ ‫‪1.90866‬‬ ‫‪5.18077‬‬ ‫‪5.66158‬‬ ‫‪3.23956‬‬ ‫‪0.83093‬‬
‫‪5.33858‬‬ ‫‪1.09586‬‬ ‫‪0.13079‬‬ ‫‪0.45222‬‬ ‫‪0.58391‬‬ ‫‪0.37610‬‬ ‫‪6.51468‬‬ ‫‪0.73263‬‬
‫‪2.09976‬‬ ‫‪4.20245‬‬ ‫‪2.76867‬‬ ‫‪0.06469‬‬ ‫‪0.53511‬‬ ‫‪0.67374‬‬ ‫‪2.25422‬‬ ‫‪1.53591‬‬
‫‪1.18708‬‬ ‫‪1.09669‬‬ ‫‪1.99443‬‬ ‫‪0.50055‬‬ ‫‪5.33081‬‬ ‫‪0.59829‬‬ ‫‪1.35675‬‬ ‫‪1.38920‬‬
‫‪2.97769‬‬ ‫‪5.00697‬‬ ‫‪0.99720‬‬ ‫‪2.48196‬‬ ‫‪0.23273‬‬ ‫‪0.01717‬‬ ‫‪1.95070‬‬ ‫‪1.45426‬‬
‫‪1.41334‬‬ ‫‪0.39858‬‬ ‫‪1.01247‬‬ ‫‪2.09068‬‬ ‫‪0.33408‬‬ ‫‪1.41298‬‬ ‫‪0.42152‬‬ ‫‪0.76330‬‬
‫‪0.67564‬‬ ‫‪2.92840‬‬ ‫‪4.08498‬‬ ‫‪0.33031‬‬
‫أﺳﺘﺨﺪم رﺳﻢ ‪ q-q‬ﻟﺘﻌﻀﯿﺪ او ﺿﺤﺪ ھﺬا اﻹﻋﺘﻘﺎد‪.‬‬
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‫اﻟﺤﻞ‪ :‬أدﺧﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺻﻔﺤﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪: Excel‬‬
‫ﻓﯿﻨﺘﺞ اﻟﺮﺳﻢ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫واﺿﺢ ﻣﻦ رﺳﻢ ‪ q-q‬أن اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات ﻗﺪ ﻻﯾﻜﻮن ﻟﮭﺎ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﺳﻲ‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ‪ :‬ھﺬا اﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﯾﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺮأي اﻟﺸﺨﺼﻲ وﻻﯾﺆﺧﺬ ﺑﮫ ﻣﻨﻔﺮدا ﺑﻞ ﯾﺠﺐ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ أﺣﺪ‬
‫اﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎرات اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
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‫ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺎ‪ :‬إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻛﺎي ﻟﺠﻮدة اﻟﺘﻄﺎﺑﻖ ‪Chi-square Goodness of Fit‬‬
‫‪: Test‬‬
‫إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻛﺎي ﻟﺠﻮدة اﻟﺘﻄﺒﯿﻖ ﯾﺨﺘﺒﺮ اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ أن ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات ﺗﺄﺗﻲ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ‬
‫ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﯾﺘﺒﻊ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﻌﯿﻦ أي‬
‫) ‪H 0 : X is distributed with F ( x‬‬
‫) ‪H1 : X is not distributed with F ( x‬‬
‫وﻋﻠﻰ أﺳﺎس ﺻﺤﺔ اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ اﻟﺼﻔﺮﯾﺔ ﻓﺈن اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﺔ‬

‫‪2‬‬
‫∑ = ‪χ 02‬‬
‫‪k‬‬
‫) ‪( Oi − Ei‬‬
‫‪i =1‬‬ ‫‪Ei‬‬
‫ﯾﻜﻮن ﻟﮭﺎ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻛﺎي ﺑﺪرﺟﺎت ﺣﺮﯾﺔ ‪ k − 1‬ﺣﯿﺚ ‪ Oi‬ﻋﺪد اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻘﻊ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻔﺌﺔ ‪i‬‬
‫و ‪ Ei‬اﻟﻌﺪد اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات اﻟﺬي ﯾﻘﻊ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻔﺲ اﻟﻔﺌﺔ ﻣﺤﺴﻮب ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﻔﺮوض‪.‬‬
‫إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻛﺎي ﻟﺠﻮدة اﻟﺘﻄﺎﺑﻖ ‪Chi-square Goodness of Fit Test‬‬

‫ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪: Excel‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﯾﻌﺘﻘﺪ ان ﻟﮭﺎ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﺑﻮاﺳﻮن ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪3‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫أﺧﺘﺒﺮ ﺟﻮدة ﺗﻄﺎﺑﻖ اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات ﻣﻊ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﺑﻮاﺳﻮن ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪3‬‬
‫ﺗﺤﺴﺐ اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬
‫‪Ei = n × P ( X = xi ) , xi = 0,1, 2,...‬‬
‫ﻓﻤﺜﻼ ﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ ‪ x1 = 0‬ﻓﺈن‬
‫‪30 −3‬‬
‫× ‪E1 = 100 × P ( X = 0 ) = 100‬‬ ‫‪e‬‬
‫!‪0‬‬
‫ﻟﺤﺴﺎب ھﺬا أدﺧﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺻﻔﺤﺔ ‪Excel‬‬
‫‪130‬‬
‫ﻓﺘﻨﺘﺞ اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﻘﺮار‪ :‬ﯾﺘﺮك ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﻛﺘﻤﺮﯾﻦ‪.‬‬

‫إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻛﺎي ﻣﻦ اﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎرات اﻟﻀﻌﯿﻔﺔ وﻟﻜﻲ ﻧﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻣﻮﺛﻮق ﺑﮭﺎ ﻻﺑﺪ ان ﺗﻜﻮن‬
‫ﺣﺠﻢ اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ ﻛﺒﯿﺮ وﺗﻜﻮن ﺟﻤﯿﻊ اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ أﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ ‪ 5‬ﻓﻔﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ وﺟﻮد ﻗﯿﻢ ﻣﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ أﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪5‬‬
‫ﺗﺪﻣﺞ ھﺬه اﻟﻘﯿﻢ ﻣﻊ ﻗﯿﻢ اﻟﻔﺌﺎت اﻟﻤﺠﺎورة ﻟﮭﺎ‪ .‬إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻛﻮﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮروف‪-‬ﺳﻤﯿﺮﻧﻮف أﻗﻮى ﻣﻦ إﺧﺘﺒﺎر‬
‫ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻛﺎى وأﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻮﺛﯿﻘﯿﺔ ﻛﻤﺎ اﻧﮫ ﯾﺼﻠﺢ ﻷﺣﺠﺎم ﻋﯿﻨﺔ ﺻﻐﯿﺮة‪.‬‬
‫ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺎ‪ :‬إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻛﻮﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮروف‪ -‬ﺳﻤﯿﺮﻧﻮف ﻟﺠﻮدة اﻟﺘﻄﺎﺑﻖ ‪K-S Goodness of‬‬
‫‪: Fit Test‬‬
‫إذا ﻛﺎن ‪ X‬ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻟﮫ داﻟﺔ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﺗﺮاﻛﻤﻲ ∞ < ‪ F ( x ) = P ( X ≤ x ) , − ∞ < x‬وﻛﺎﻧﺖ‬
‫ﻟﺪﯾﻨﺎ ﻋﯿﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ھﺬا اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ } ‪ { x1 , x2 ,..., xn‬ﻓﺈن داﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺮاﻛﻤﻲ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﻲ ﺗﻌﻄﻰ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪131‬‬
‫‪number of x1 , x2 ,..., xn ≤ x‬‬
‫= ) ‪Sn ( x‬‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫وإذا رﺗﺒﺖ اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات ‪ x1 , x2 ,..., xn‬ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ ) ‪ x(1) , x( 2) ,..., x( n‬ﺑﺤﯿﺚ ) ‪x(1) ≤ x( 2) ≤ ... ≤ x( n‬‬
‫ﻓﺈن‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪ 0,‬‬ ‫)‪x < x(1‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪k‬‬
‫‪Sn ( x ) =  ,‬‬ ‫‪x( k ) ≤ x < x( k +1) , k = 1, 2,..., n‬‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪ 1,‬‬ ‫) ‪x ≥ x( n‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫ﻓﻠﻜﻲ ﻧﺨﺘﺒﺮ اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ أن اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ ﺗﺄﺗﻲ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺮاﻛﻤﻲ ) ‪ F ( x‬ﻧﺤﺴﺐ اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﺔ‬
‫) ‪D = max F ( x ) − S n ( x‬‬
‫وﻟﻘﯿﻢ ‪ n ≥ 35‬ﺗﻘﺎرن اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﺔ ﻣﻊ ‪ 1.36 n‬وذﻟﻚ ﻟﻤﺴﺘﻮى ﻣﻌﻨﻮﯾﺔ ‪. α = 0.05‬‬

‫‪ Test‬ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪: Excel‬‬
‫ﯾﻌﺘﻘﺪ أن اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ طﺒﯿﻌﻲ ﻗﯿﺎﺳﻲ‪ .‬أﺧﺘﺒﺮ ھﺬه اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ‪.α = 0.05‬‬
‫ﻧﺪﺧﻞ اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات ﻛﻤﺎ ھﻮ ﻣﻮﺿﺢ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻣﻊ اﻟﺼﯿﻎ اﻟﻤﻮﺿﺤﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﯾﻨﺘﺞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺼﻔﺤﺔ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺑﻌﺪ اﻟﺤﺴﺎب اﻟﻨﺘﯿﺠﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪132‬‬
‫اﻟﻘﺮار‪ :‬ﯾﺘﺮك ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﻛﺘﻤﺮﯾﻦ‪.‬‬
‫‪133‬‬
‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻊ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻟﻐﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة )‪SIMAN (SIMulation ANalysis‬‬
‫ﯾﺘﻜﻮن اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج اﻟﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪ SIMAN‬ﻣﻦ إطﺎر ﻧﻤﻮذج ‪ MODEL FRAME‬وإطﺎر ﺗﺠﺮﺑﺔ‬
‫‪EXPERIMENT FRAME‬‬
‫إطﺎر اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‪ :‬ﯾﺼﻒ اﻹﻧﺴﯿﺎب اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘﻲ ﻟﻸﺣﺪاث ﺿﻤﻦ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪ .‬واﻟﻌﺒﺎرات ﻓﻲ إطﺎر اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‬
‫ﺗﺴﻤﻲ ﻗﻮاﻟﺐ ‪ BLOCKS‬وﯾﻌﻄﻰ اﻟﻤﻠﻒ اﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ‪ MOD‬ﻛﻤﺜﺎل ‪SM.MOD‬‬
‫إطﺎر اﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ‪ :‬ﯾﻌﯿﻦ ﺷﺮوط اﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ ﻹﺟﺮاء اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‪ .‬اﻟﻌﺒﺎرات ﻓﻲ إطﺎر اﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ ﺗﺴﻤﻰ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ‬
‫‪ ELEMENTS‬وﯾﻌﻄﻰ اﻟﻤﻠﻒ اﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ‪ EXP‬ﻛﻤﺜﺎل ‪SM.EXP‬‬
‫ﺧﻄﻮات إﺟﺮاء ‪SIMAN‬‬

‫‪1- C:\SIMAN5\MODEL.EXE EXAMPLE.MOD ====> EXAMPLE.M‬‬
‫‪2- C:\SIMAN5\EXPMT.EXE EXAMPLE.EXP ====> EXAMPLE.E‬‬
‫‪3- C:\SIMAN5\LINKER.EXE EXAMPLE.M EXAMPLE.E ====> EXAMPLE.P‬‬
‫‪4- C:\SIMAN5\SIMAN.EXE EXAMPLE.P ====> EXAMPLE.OUT‬‬
‫‪Text File‬‬ ‫‪Text File‬‬

‫‪*.MOD‬‬ ‫‪*.EXP‬‬
‫‪MODEL‬‬ ‫‪EXPMT‬‬
‫‪*.M‬‬ ‫‪*.E‬‬
‫‪LINKER‬‬
‫‪*.P‬‬
‫‪SIMAN‬‬
‫‪*.OUT‬‬
‫‪134‬‬
SIMAN ‫أﺳﺎﺳﯿﺎت اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼت‬،‫ ﻧﻘﻮد‬،‫ ﺷﺎﺣﻨﺎت‬،‫ ﻗﻄﻊ‬،‫ أﺷﯿﺎء ﺗﻨﺴﺎب ﺧﻼل اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻣﺜﻞ اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‬: ENTITIES ‫ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت‬-
.‫اﻟﺦ‬
.‫ ﻣﻨﺎطﻖ إﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﺣﯿﺚ ﺗﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﺣﺮﻛﺔ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت ﻣﺆﻗﺘﺎ‬: QUEUES ‫ طﻮاﺑﯿﺮ‬-
،‫ ﺻﺮاف‬،‫ ﻋﻤﺎل‬،‫ أﺟﺰاء اﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﮭﺎ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت ﻣﺜﻞ اﻵﻻت‬: RESOURCES ‫ ﻣﻮارد‬-
.‫طﺎﺑﻌﺎت اﻟﺦ‬
‫ زﻣﻦ‬،‫ وﻗﺖ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل‬،‫ وﺗﻤﺜﻞ ﻗﯿﻢ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺑﻜﻞ ﻛﺎﺋﻦ ﻣﺜﻞ ﻧﻮع اﻟﻮظﯿﻔﺔ‬: ATTRIBUTES ‫ ﺻﻔﺎت‬-
.‫اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ اﻟﺦ‬
‫ وﺗﻤﺜﻞ ﻗﯿﻢ ﺗﺼﻒ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻣﺜﻞ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻮظﺎﺋﻒ‬: GLOBAL VARIABLES ‫ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮات ﻋﺎﻣﺔ‬-
.‫ ﻋﺪد اﻵﻻت اﻟﻤﺘﺎﺣﺔ اﻟﺦ‬،‫ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‬
: SIMAN ‫ﻗﻮاﻋﺪ ﻟﻐﺔ‬

: MODEL BLOCKS ‫ﻗﻮاﻟﺐ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‬
BEGIN, Model Listing, Model Name;
CREATE, Batch Size, Offset Time: Interval, Maximum
Batches; ( CREATE: EXPONENTIAL(4.4) )
ASSIGN: Variable or Attribute = Value: repeats;
QUEUE, Queue ID, Capacity, Balk Label;
SEIZE, Priority: Resource ID, Number of Units:repeats;
(SEIZE,3: Worker, 2; / SEIZE: Machine:Worker)
DELAY: Duration, Storage ID;
RELEASE: Resource ID, Quantity to Release: repeats;
COUNT: Counter ID, Counter Increment;
(COUNT: JobsDone; / COUNT: 7, BatchSize)
DISPOSE;
MARK (Attribute ID);
* A modifier that can be added to any block in the
model.
* It stores the time at which an entity
arrives at the block in an attribute of the
activating entity
135
TALLY: Tally ID, Value;
* Tally ID: specifies the tally register to which
the observations are added (Tally’s name or
number defined in TALLIES)
* Value: specifies the value recorded at each
entity’s arrival at the block. It can be any
SIMAN defined or user defined variable or an
expression involving one or more variables
* Interval( Attribute ID): To record the elapsed
time (TNOW – Attribute Value)
* Between: To Record the time between successive
arrivals to the block. (TNOW – Time of
Previous Arrival)
BRANCH, Max Number of Branches:
WITH, Probability, Label:
IF, Condition, Label:
ELSE, Label:
ALWAYS, Label;
(BRANCH, 2: ALWAYS, Repeat:
IF, TNOW < 4, Go;)
: EXPERIMENT ELEMENTS ‫ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ‬

PROJECT, Title, Analyst Name,Date,Summary Report;
ATTRIBUTES: Number, Name(Index), Initial Values,
…:repeats;
QUEUES: Number, Name, Ranking Criterion: repeats; {FIFO,
LIFO, LVF(A ID), HVF(A ID)}
RESOURCES: Number, Name, Capacity: repeats;
COUNTERS: Number, Name, Limit, Initialize Option, Output
File: repeats;
REPLICATE: Number of Replications, Beginning Time,
Replication Length, Initialize System,
Initialize Statistics, Warm-Up Period;
136
DSTATS: Number, Expression, Name, Output File: repeats;
* To record statistics about time-dependent
variables
* For sequences of values persisting over a
period of time
* The statistics for the sequences of values are
weighed by the length of the period the value
persist
TALLIES: Number, Name, Output File: repeats;
* To record statistics about observational data
* For sequences of values that are one-shot
(non-persistent)
* The statistics for the sequences are based on
equally weighed observations
VARIABLES: Number, Name(Index), Initial Values, …:
repeats;
STORAGES: Number, Name: repeats; (Associated with DELAY
block)
137
‫ﻣﺜﺎل‪ :1‬ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ اﻟﻤﻜﯿﻨﺔ اﻟﻮاﺣﺪة ‪The Single Machine Problem‬‬
‫ورﺷﺔ ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺎﻛﻨﺔ واﺣﺪة ﻹﻧﺘﺎج ﻧﻮﻋﯿﻦ ﻣﻨﻔﺼﻠﯿﻦ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻨﺘﺠﺎت‪ .‬اﻟﻨﻮع اﻷول ﺗﺼﻞ ﻗﻄﻌﮫ ﻛﻞ‬
‫‪ 10‬دﻗﺎﺋﻖ وﯾﺤﺘﺎج إﻟﻰ ‪ 4‬دﻗﺎﺋﻖ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﯿﮫ ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺎﻛﻨﺔ‪ .‬اﻟﻨﻮع اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﻄﻊ ﯾﺼﻞ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺧﻤﺴﺔ‬
‫دﻗﺎﺋﻖ ﻣﻦ وﺻﻮل أول ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻮع اﻷول ﺛﻢ ﺗﺼﻞ ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﻣﺘﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻛﻞ ‪ 6‬دﻗﺎﺋﻖ وﺗﺤﺘﺎج اﻟﻘﻄﻌﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻨﺔ ‪ 3‬دﻗﺎﺋﻖ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﺎﻛﻨﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺣﺪد ﻋﺪد اﻟﻘﻄﻊ ﻣﻦ ﻛﻞ ﻧﻮع واﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ إﻧﺘﺎﺟﮭﺎ ﻓﻲ ‪ 8‬ﺳﺎﻋﺎت‪.‬‬
‫‪Type 1 Arrivals‬‬
‫‪Out‬‬
‫‪Buffer‬‬
‫‪Machine‬‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ أن‪:‬‬
‫‪ -‬اﻟﻘﻄﻊ ھﻲ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻧﻮع اﻟﻮظﯿﻔﺔ ‪ JobTybe‬و زﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻘﻄﻌﺔ ‪ ProcessTime‬ھﻲ ﺻﻔﺎت‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ھﻨﺎ ﻧﺮﻣﺰ ﻟﺔ ‪. Buffer‬‬
‫‪ -‬اﻟﻤﺎﻛﻨﺔ ھﻲ ﻣﻮرد‪.‬‬
‫إﻧﺴﯿﺎب اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻖ‪:‬‬
‫‪- CREATE arriving jobs.‬‬
‫‪-ASSIGN values to ProcessTime and JobType.‬‬
‫‪- QUEUE the jobs for machine in the Buffer‬‬
‫‪- SEIZE the machine.‬‬
‫‪- DELAY by ProcessTime.‬‬
‫‪- RELEASE the machine.‬‬
‫‪- COUNT the JobType completed.‬‬
‫‪- DISPOSE of the finished jobs.‬‬
‫‪138‬‬
SM.EXP :‫ﻣﻠﻒ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ‬
BEGIN;
;Single Machine job Shop
PROJECT, Single Machine, OR241;

ATTRIBUTES: 1, JobType:
2, ProcessTime;
RESOURCES: 1, Machine, capacity(1);
QUEUES: 1, Buffer;
COUNTERS: 1, Type 1 Job Count:
2, Type 2 Job Count;
REPLICATE, 1, 0, 480;
END;
SM.MOD :‫ﻣﻠﻒ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‬
BEGIN;
;Single machine job shop
;Attributes: JobType, ProcwssTime
;Resources: Machine
;Queue: Buffer
CREATE: 10; Create type 1 jobs

ASSIGN: JobType=1:
ProcessTime=4:
NEXT(process);
CREATE, 1, 5: 6; Create type 2 jobs
ASSIGN: JobType=2:
ProcessTime=3;
processQUEUE, Buffer;
SEIZE, 1: machine, 1;
DELAY: ProcessTime;
139
RELEASE: machine;
COUNT: JobType;
DISPOSE;
END;
:‫ﺑﻌﺪ ﻛﺘﺎﺑﺔ ﻣﻠﻔﺎت اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج واﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ ﻧﻘﻮم ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
1- C:\SIMAN5\MODEL.EXE SM.MOD ====> SM.M
2- C:\SIMAN5\EXPMT.EXE SM.EXP ====> SM.E
3- C:\SIMAN5\LINKER.EXE SM.M SM.E ====> SM.P
4- C:\SIMAN5\SIMAN.EXE SM.P ====> SM.OUT
:‫ﻓﯿﻨﺘﺞ‬
SM.OUT :‫ﻣﻠﻒ اﻟﻤﺨﺮﺟﺎت‬
SIMAN V - License #6666666
Systems Modeling Corporation
Summary for Replication 1 of 1
Project: Single Machine Run execution date : 7/28/2002

Analyst: OR241 Model revision date: 7/28/2002
Replication ended at time : 480.0
COUNTERS
Identifier Count Limit

_________________________________________
Type 1 Job Count 48 Infinite

Execution time: 0.00 minutes.

Simulation run complete.
140
‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪: 2‬‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﻄﻮر اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺑﺤﯿﺚ أن ازﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل ﻟﻠﻘﻄﻊ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻮع اﻷول ﯾﻜﻮن أﺳﻲ‬
‫ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 10‬دﻗﺎﺋﻖ وﻟﻠﻘﻄﻊ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻮع اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ أﺳﻲ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 6‬دﻗﺎﺋﻖ‪ ،‬زﻣﻦ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ )اﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫اﻟﻘﻄﻌﺔ( ﻟﻠﻨﻮع اﻷول ﻣﺘﺴﺎوي ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 2‬و ‪ 6‬دﻗﺎﺋﻖ وﻟﻠﻨﻮع اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻣﺘﺴﺎوي ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 1.5‬و ‪ 4.5‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫اﺟﻤﻊ اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺎت اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺎﻛﻨﺔ ‪. Machine Utilization‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻋﺪد اﻟﻘﻄﻊ اﻟﻤﺘﻈﺮة ﻓﻲ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬اﻟﺰﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻐﺮق ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻟﻠﻘﻄﻊ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -4‬ازﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺨﺮوج‪.‬‬
‫)‪EXP(10‬‬
‫‪Out‬‬
‫‪Buffer‬‬
‫‪Machine‬‬
‫‪Type 2 Arrivals‬‬ ‫‪Type 1 PT‬‬
‫)‪U(2,6‬‬
‫)‪EXP(6‬‬
‫‪Type 2 PT‬‬
‫)‪U(1.5,4.5‬‬
‫ﻣﻠﻒ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ‪SM2.EXP :‬‬

‫;‪BEGIN‬‬
‫‪;Modified Single Machine job Shop‬‬
‫;‪PROJECT, Single Machine, OR241‬‬

‫‪ATTRIBUTES:‬‬ ‫;‪JobType: ProcessTime: ArrTime‬‬
‫‪RESOURCES:‬‬ ‫;‪Machine‬‬
‫‪QUEUES:‬‬ ‫;‪Buffer‬‬
‫‪COUNTERS: Type 1 Job Count:‬‬
‫;‪Type 2 Job Count‬‬
‫‪TALLIES:‬‬ ‫‪Flowtime:‬‬
‫;‪ExitPeriod‬‬
‫‪141‬‬
DSTATS: NQ(Buffer), Queue Length:
NR(Machine), Machine Utilization:
END;
SM2.MOD :‫ﻣﻠﻒ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‬

BEGIN;
;Modified Single machine job shop
CREATE: EXPO(10): MARK(ArrTime);

ASSIGN: JobType=1:
ProcessTime=UNIF(2,6):
NEXT(process);
CREATE, 1, 5: EXPO(6): MARK(ArrTime);
ASSIGN: JobType=2:
ProcessTime=UNIF(1.5,4.5);
process QUEUE, Buffer;
SEIZE: machine;
DELAY: ProcessTime;
RELEASE: machine;
TALLY: 1, INTERVAL(ArrTime);
TALLY: 2, BETWEEN;
COUNT: JobType;
DISPOSE;
END;
1- C:\SIMAN5\MODEL.EXE SM2.MOD ====> SM2.M
2- C:\SIMAN5\EXPMT.EXE SM2.EXP ====> SM2.E
3- C:\SIMAN5\LINKER.EXE SM2.M SM2.E ====> SM2.P
4- C:\SIMAN5\SIMAN.EXE SM2.P ====> SM2.OUT
142
SM2.OUT :‫ﻣﻠﻒ اﻟﻤﺨﺮﺟﺎت‬
SIMAN V - License #6666666

Systems Modeling Corporation
Project: Single Machine Run execution date :

7/29/2002
Analyst: OR241 Model revision date:
7/29/2002
TALLY VARIABLES
Identifier Average Variation Minimum Maximum

Observations
____________________________________________________________________________
___
Flowtime 7.6548 .56697 1.5939 18.865 116

ExitPeriod 4.1137 .61447 1.5089 18.021 115
DISCRETE-CHANGE VARIABLES
Identifier Average Variation Minimum Maximum Final

Value
____________________________________________________________________________
___
Queue Length 1.0582 1.1846 .00000 5.0000 1.0000

Machine Utilization .80701 .48902 .00000 1.0000 1.0000
COUNTERS

_________________________________________

Execution time: 0.00 minutes.

143
‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪: 3‬‬
‫ﻧﻮﻋﯿﻦ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻮظﺎﺋﻒ وﻣﺤﻄﺘﻲ ﻋﻤﻞ ‪: Two Job Types and Two Workstation‬‬
‫‪Repair‬‬ ‫‪Reject‬‬
‫‪Depart‬‬
‫‪Good‬‬
‫‪Buffer‬‬ ‫‪Buffer‬‬
‫‪Machine‬‬ ‫‪Inspector‬‬
‫اﻟﻘﻄﻊ اﻟﻤﺮاد ﺗﺼﻨﯿﻌﮭﺎ ﺗﺪﺧﻞ وﺗﻨﺘﻈﺮ دورھﺎ ﻟﻜﻲ ﯾﺘﻢ اﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ ﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ ﻣﺎﻛﻨﺔ واﺣﺪة‪ .‬ﺑﻌﺪ إﻧﺘﮭﺎء‬
‫ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﺼﻨﯿﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﺎﻛﻨﺔ ﻓﺈن اﻟﻘﻄﻊ ﺗﺴﺘﻤﺮ إﻟﻰ ﻣﺎﻛﻨﺔ ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺔ ﺣﯿﺚ ﯾﺘﻢ ﻓﺤﺼﮭﺎ‪ .‬ﻋﻨﺪ ﻣﺤﻄﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻔﺤﺺ ﺗﺼﻨﻒ اﻟﻘﻄﻊ اﻟﻤﺼﻨﻌﺔ ﻛﺠﯿﺪة او ﻣﺮﻓﻮﺿﺔ او ﯾﻌﺎد ﺗﺼﻨﯿﻌﮭﺎ‪ ،‬اﻟﻘﻄﻊ اﻟﺠﯿﺪة واﻟﻘﻄﻊ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺮﻓﻮﺿﺔ ﺗﻐﺎدر اﻟﻨﻈﺎم واﻟﻘﻄﻊ اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﻌﺎد ﺗﺼﻨﯿﻌﮭﺎ ﺗﺮﺟﻊ ﻣﺮة اﺧﺮى إﻟﻲ اﻟﻤﺎﻛﻨﺔ اﻷوﻟﻰ ﺣﯿﺚ‬
‫ﯾﻌﺎد اﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ‪ ،‬اﻧﻈﺮ اﻟﻤﺨﻄﻂ اﻋﻼه‪.‬‬
‫زﻣﻦ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل ﻟﻠﻘﻄﻊ ﻣﻮزع اﺳﯿﺎ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 9‬دﻗﺎﺋﻖ‪ .‬ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﻧﻮﻋﯿﻦ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻮظﺎﺋﻒ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺼﻞ‬
‫ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ‪ 30% ،‬ﻣﻨﮭﺎ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻮع اﻷول و ‪ 70%‬ﻣﻨﮭﺎ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻮع اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‪ ،‬اﻟﻘﻄﻊ اﻟﻤﻨﺘﻈﺮة‬
‫ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ ﺗﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺎﻛﻨﺔ وﻣﺤﻄﺔ اﻟﻔﺤﺺ‪ ،‬وظﺎﺋﻒ اﻟﻨﻮع اﻷول ﻟﮭﺎ اﻓﻀﻠﯿﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫وظﺎﺋﻒ اﻟﻨﻮع اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﺿﻤﻦ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر اﻟﻮاﺣﺪ‪ ،‬اﻟﺠﺰء اﻷول ﻣﻦ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ﯾﺤﻮي اﻟﻨﻮع اﻷول ﻣﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻮظﺎﺋﻒ ﻣﺮﺗﺒﺔ ﺣﺴﺐ زﻣﻦ وﺻﻮﻟﮭﺎ ﻓﻠﻰ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر‪ ،‬واﻟﻨﻮع اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻮظﺎﺋﻒ ﯾﺘﺒﻊ اﻟﻨﻮع اﻷول‬
‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﻮظﺎﺋﻒ وﯾﻜﻮن ﻣﺮﺗﺐ ﺣﺴﺐ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل اﯾﻀﺎ‪ .‬ﻧﻈﺎم اﻷﻓﻀﻠﯿﺔ ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﻔﺮغ ﺑﻤﻌﻨﻰ إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ‬
‫وظﯿﻔﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻮع اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﯾﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ أﺛﻨﺎء وﺻﻮل وظﯿﻔﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻮع اﻷول ﻓﺈن اﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﯾﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫اﻟﻘﻄﻌﺔ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﯿﺔ وﻻﯾﻘﻄﻊ‪ ،‬اﻟﻘﻄﻊ اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﻌﺎد ﺗﺼﻨﯿﻌﮭﺎ ﺗﻌﻮد إﻟﻰ طﺎﺑﻮر اﻟﻤﺎﻛﻨﺔ ﺑﺄﻗﻞ اﻓﻀﻠﯿﺔ وﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻟﮭﺎ‬
‫أﻗﻞ أﻓﻀﻠﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺔ إﻋﺎدة اﻟﻔﺤﺺ‪ ،‬وھﻜﺬا ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﺛﻼث إﺻﻨﺎف ﻣﻦ اﻷﻓﻀﻠﯿﺔ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻋﻨﺪ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺎﻛﻨﺔ وﻋﻨﺪ ﻣﺤﻄﺔ اﻟﻔﺤﺺ ‪ :‬ﻧﻮع أول وﻧﻮع ﺛﺎﻧﻲ وﻧﻮع ﻣﻌﺎد ﺗﺼﻨﯿﻌﮫ‪.‬‬
‫زﻣﻦ اﻟﻔﺤﺺ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻗﻄﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﻐﺾ اﻟﻨﻈﺮﻋﻦ ﻧﻮﻋﮭﺎ أو ﻧﻮع اﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ‪ ،‬ﻟﮫ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﺜﻠﺜﻲ )‪( 5,8,10‬‬
‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﻮظﺎﺋﻒ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻔﺤﺺ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻣﺤﻄﺔ اﻟﻔﺤﺺ ‪ 80%‬ﻣﻨﮭﺎ ﺗﺼﻨﻒ ﺟﯿﺪة وﺗﻐﺎدر اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪10% ،‬‬
‫ﻣﻨﮭﺎ ﺗﺼﻨﻒ ﻣﺮﻓﻮﺿﺔ وﺗﻐﺎدر اﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﯾﻀﺎ‪ 10% ،‬ﻣﻨﮭﺎ ﺗﺼﻨﻒ ﯾﻌﺎد ﺗﺼﻨﯿﻌﮭﺎ وﺗﻌﻮد إﻟﻰ طﺎﺑﻮر‬
‫اﻟﻤﺎﻛﻨﺔ‪ ،‬ﻧﻔﺲ اﻟﻨﺴﺐ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺗﻨﻄﺒﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻮﻋﯿﻦ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻮظﺎﺋﻒ ﺑﻐﺾ اﻟﻨﻈﺮ ﻋﻦ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ‬
‫إﻋﺎدة اﻟﺘﺼﻨﯿﻊ‪ ،‬ﻻﺣﻆ ان اي وظﯿﻔﺔ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ إﻋﺎدة اﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ ﻋﺪة ﻣﺮات‪.‬‬
‫‪144‬‬
‫زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﺤﻀﯿﺮ واﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻘﻄﻊ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻮع اﻷول واﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ واﻟﻤﻌﺎد ﺗﺼﻨﯿﻌﮭﺎ ﻟﮫ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ طﺒﯿﻌﻲ‬
‫ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻄﺎت وإﻧﺤﺮاﻓﺎت ﻣﻌﯿﺎرﯾﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﻗﺎﺋﻖ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪Regular‬‬ ‫‪Rework‬‬
‫‪Mean‬‬ ‫‪Std‬‬ ‫‪Mean‬‬ ‫‪Std‬‬
‫‪Type 1‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪Type 2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫ھﺪﻓﻨﺎ ھﻮ ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ھﺬا اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻟﻤﺪة ‪ 480‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ وﺗﺴﺠﯿﻞ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻘﻄﻊ اﻟﻤﻨﺘﮭﯿﺔ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻧﻮع اﻟﻮظﯿﻔﺔ‬
‫وﻛﺬﻟﻚ اﻟﻌﺪد اﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﻘﻄﻊ اﻟﻤﺮﻓﻮﺿﺔ‪ .‬ﻧﺮﯾﺪ اﯾﻀﺎ ان ﻧﺠﻤﻊ إﺣﺼﺎﺋﺎت ﻋﻦ طﻮل ﻛﻞ طﺎﺑﻮر وﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻮارد ) وﺗﺸﻤﻞ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﻔﺤﺺ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻧﻮع ﻣﻦ اﻧﻮاع اﻟﻮظﺎﺋﻒ ( واﻟﺰﻣﻦ اﻟﺬي ﺗﺴﺘﻐﺮﻗﮫ اﻟﻘﻄﻊ ﻓﻲ‬
‫اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻠﻒ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ‪SM3.EXP :‬‬
‫‪145‬‬
SM3.MOD :‫ﻣﻠﻒ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‬

1- C:\SIMAN5\MODEL.EXE SM3.MOD ====> SM3.M
2- C:\SIMAN5\EXPMT.EXE SM3.EXP ====> SM3.E
3- C:\SIMAN5\LINKER.EXE SM3.M SM3.E ====> SM3.P
4- C:\SIMAN5\SIMAN.EXE SM3.P ====> SM3.OUT
146
‫ﻣﻠﻒ اﻟﻤﺨﺮﺟﺎت‪SM3.OUT :‬‬
‫‪147‬‬
:‫ أدرس وﻓﺴﺮ ﻋﻤﻞ اﻟﺒﺮاﻣﺞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬:‫ﺗﻤﺎرﯾﻦ‬
1) MODEL FILE: SIMPLE QUEUEING EXAMPLE
BEGIN;
CREATE: EXPO(4.4);
QUEUE, BUFFER;
SEIZE: MACHINE;
DELAY: TRIA(3.2,4.2,5.2);
RELEASE: MACHINE;
COUNT: JOBSDONE;
DISPOSE;
END;
EXPERMINT FILE: SIMPLE QUEUEING EXAMPLE

BEGIN;
PROJECT, SAMPLE PROBLEM;
DISCRETE, 100;
QUEUES: BUFFER;
RESOURCES: MACHINE;
COUNTERS: JOBSDONE;
END;
148
2) MODEL FILE: Simple Processing System
;
;
; Model statements for module: Arrive 1
;
42$ CREATE, 1:EXPO( 5.0):MARK(Time of Arrival);
3$ STATION, In Door;
51$ TRACE, -1,"-Arrived to system at station In Door\n":;
6$ ASSIGN: Picture=Default;
27$ DELAY: 0.;
55$ TRACE, -1,"-Transferred to next module\n"::NEXT(0$);
;
;
; Model statements for module: Server 1
;
0$ STATION, Machine;
158$ TRACE, -1,"-Arrived to station Machine\n":;
121$ DELAY: 0.;
165$ TRACE, -1,"-Waiting for resource Machine_R\n":;
82$ QUEUE, Machine_R_Q:MARK(QueueTime);
83$ SEIZE, 1:
Machine_R,1;
192$ BRANCH, 1:
If,RTYP(Machine_R).eq.2,193$,Yes:
If,RTYP(Machine_R).eq.1,95$,Yes;
193$ MOVE: Machine_R,Machine;
95$ TALLY: Machine_R_Q Queue Time,INT(QueueTime),1;
202$ DELAY: 0.0;
TRACE, -1,"-Delay for processing time TRIA( 1, 4, 8)\n":;
149
84$ DELAY: TRIA( 1, 4, 8);
166$ TRACE, -1,"-Releasing resource\n":;
85$ RELEASE: Machine_R,1;
149$ DELAY: 0.;
172$ TRACE, -1,"-Transferred to next module\n"::NEXT(2$);
;
;
; Model statements for module: Depart 1
;
2$ STATION, Out Door;

233$ TRACE, -1,"-Arrived to station Out Door\n":;
203$ DELAY: 0.;
225$ COUNT: Production,1;
230$ TALLY: Flowtime,Interval(Time of Arrival),1;
240$ TRACE, -1,"-Disposing entity\n":;
232$ DISPOSE;
EXPERMINT FILE: Simple Processing System

PROJECT, Simple Processing System,Desdemona Rocketship;
ATTRIBUTES: QueueTime:
Time of Arrival;
QUEUES: Machine_R_Q,FIFO;
PICTURES: Default;
RESOURCES: Machine_R,Capacity(1,),-,Stationary;
150
STATIONS: In Door:
Out Door:
Machine;
COUNTERS: Production;
TALLIES: Machine_R_Q Queue Time:

Flowtime;
DSTATS: NR(Machine_R),Machine_R Busy:

NQ(Machine_R_Q),# in Machine_R_Q:
MR(Machine_R),Machine_R Available;
REPLICATE, 1,0.0,15,Yes,Yes;
151
3) MODEL FILE: Electronic Assembly and Test
;
;
;
50$ CREATE, 1:EXPO( 5 ):MARK(Arrival Time);

51$ ASSIGN: Sealer Time=TRIA( 1 , 3 , 4 );
11$ STATION, Part A Arrive;

59$ TRACE, -1,"-Arrived to system at station Part A Arrive\n":;
35$ DELAY: 0.;
64$ TRACE, -1,"-Transferred to station Part A Prep\n":;
37$ ROUTE: 2,Part A Prep;
;
;
;
129$ CREATE, 4:EXPO( 30 ):MARK(Arrival Time);

130$ ASSIGN: Sealer Time=NORM( 2.4 , 0.5 );
90$ STATION, Part B Arrive;

138$ TRACE, -1,"-Arrived to system at station Part B Arrive\n":;
114$ DELAY: 0.;
143$ TRACE, -1,"-Transferred to station Part B Prep\n":;
116$ ROUTE: 2,Part B Prep;
152
;
;
0$ STATION, Part A Prep;

245$ TRACE, -1,"-Arrived to station Part A Prep\n":;
208$ DELAY: 0.;
252$ TRACE, -1,"-Waiting for resource Part A Prep_R\n":;
169$ QUEUE, Part A Prep_R_Q:MARK(QueueTime);
170$ SEIZE, 1:
Part A Prep_R,1;
279$ BRANCH, 1:
If,RTYP(Part A Prep_R).eq.2,280$,Yes:
If,RTYP(Part A Prep_R).eq.1,182$,Yes;
280$ MOVE: Part A Prep_R,Part A Prep;
182$ TALLY: Part A Prep_R_Q Queue Time,INT(QueueTime),1;
289$ DELAY: 0.0;
TRACE, -1,"-Delay for processing time TRIA( 1 , 4 , 8 )\n":;
171$ DELAY: TRIA( 1 , 4 , 8 );
172$ RELEASE: Part A Prep_R,1;
236$ DELAY: 0.;
258$ TRACE, -1,"-Transferred to station Sealer\n":;
176$ ROUTE: 2,Sealer;
;
;
;
2$ STATION, Part B Prep;

366$ TRACE, -1,"-Arrived to station Part B Prep\n":;
329$ DELAY: 0.;
153
373$ TRACE, -1,"-Waiting for resource Part B Prep_R\n":;
290$ QUEUE, Part B Prep_R_Q:MARK(QueueTime);
291$ SEIZE, 1:
Part B Prep_R,1;
400$ BRANCH, 1:
If,RTYP(Part B Prep_R).eq.2,401$,Yes:
If,RTYP(Part B Prep_R).eq.1,303$,Yes;
401$ MOVE: Part B Prep_R,Part B Prep;
303$ TALLY: Part B Prep_R_Q Queue Time,INT(QueueTime),1;
410$ DELAY: 0.0;
TRACE, -1,"-Delay for processing time TRIA( 3 , 5 , 10 )\n":;
292$ DELAY: TRIA( 3 , 5 , 10 );
293$ RELEASE: Part B Prep_R,1;
357$ DELAY: 0.;
379$ TRACE, -1,"-Transferred to station Sealer\n":;
297$ ROUTE: 2,Sealer;
;
;
; Model statements for module: Inspect 1
;
4$ STATION, Sealer;
523$ TRACE, -1,"-Arrived to Inspect station Sealer\n":;
464$ DELAY: 0.;
411$ QUEUE, Sealer_R_Q:MARK(QueueTime);
412$ SEIZE, 1:
Sealer_R,1;
576$ BRANCH, 1:
If,RTYP(Sealer_R)==2,577$,Yes:
If,RTYP(Sealer_R)==1,425$,Yes;
577$ MOVE: Sealer_R,Sealer;
154
425$ TALLY: Sealer_R_Q Queue Time,INT(QueueTime),1;
594$ DELAY: 0.0;
TRACE, -1,"-Delay for processing time Sealer Time with failure
probability 0.09\n
":;
413$ DELAY: Sealer Time;
420$ BRANCH, 1:
With,0.09,531$,Yes:
Else,530$,Yes;
531$ TRACE, -1,"-Entity failed inspection\n":;
516$ DELAY: 0.0;
475$ RELEASE: Sealer_R,1;
500$ DELAY: 0.;
535$ TRACE, -1,"-Transferred to station Rework\n":;
419$ ROUTE: 2,Rework;
530$ TRACE, -1,"-Entity passed inspection\n":;

515$ DELAY: 0.0;
414$ RELEASE: Sealer_R,1;
499$ DELAY: 0.;
541$ TRACE, -1,"-Transferring to station Shipping\n":;
418$ ROUTE: 2,Shipping;
;
;
; Model statements for module: Inspect 2
;
6$ STATION, Rework;
707$ TRACE, -1,"-Arrived to Inspect station Rework\n":;
648$ DELAY: 0.;
595$ QUEUE, Rework_R_Q:MARK(QueueTime);
155
596$ SEIZE, 1:
Rework_R,1;
760$ BRANCH, 1:
If,RTYP(Rework_R)==2,761$,Yes:
If,RTYP(Rework_R)==1,609$,Yes;
761$ MOVE: Rework_R,Rework;
609$ TALLY: Rework_R_Q Queue Time,INT(QueueTime),1;
778$ DELAY: 0.0;
TRACE, -1,"-Delay for processing time EXPO( 45 ) with failure
probability .2\n":;
597$ DELAY: EXPO( 45 );
604$ BRANCH, 1:
With,.2,715$,Yes:
Else,714$,Yes;
715$ TRACE, -1,"-Entity failed inspection\n":;
700$ DELAY: 0.0;
659$ RELEASE: Rework_R,1;
684$ DELAY: 0.;
719$ TRACE, -1,"-Transferred to station Scrap\n":;
603$ ROUTE: 2,Scrap;
714$ TRACE, -1,"-Entity passed inspection\n":;

699$ DELAY: 0.0;
598$ RELEASE: Rework_R,1;
683$ DELAY: 0.;
725$ TRACE, -1,"-Transferring to station Salvaged Parts\n":;
602$ ROUTE: 2,Salvaged Parts;
;
;
;
156
8$ STATION, Shipping;
809$ TRACE, -1,"-Arrived to station Shipping\n":;
779$ DELAY: 0.;
801$ COUNT: Shipping_C,1;
806$ TALLY: Shipping_Ta,Interval(Arrival Time),1;
808$ DISPOSE;
;
;
;
9$ STATION, Salvaged Parts;

848$ TRACE, -1,"-Arrived to station Salvaged Parts\n":;
818$ DELAY: 0.;
840$ COUNT: Salvaged Parts_C,1;
845$ TALLY: Salvaged Parts_Ta,Interval(Arrival Time),1;
847$ DISPOSE;
;
;
;
10$ STATION, Scrap;

887$ TRACE, -1,"-Arrived to station Scrap\n":;
857$ DELAY: 0.;
879$ COUNT: Scrap_C,1;
884$ TALLY: Scrap_Ta,Interval(Arrival Time),1;
157
886$ DISPOSE;
EXPERMINT FILE: Electronic Assembly and Test
PROJECT, Electronic Assembly and Test,Mr. Munchkin;
ATTRIBUTES: Sealer Time:

Arrival Time:
QueueTime;
QUEUES: Part B Prep_R_Q,FIFO:

Rework_R_Q,FIFO:
Part A Prep_R_Q,FIFO:
Sealer_R_Q,FIFO;
PICTURES: Default;
RESOURCES: Sealer_R,Capacity(1,),-,Stationary:
Part A Prep_R,Capacity(1,),-,Stationary:
Rework_R,Capacity(1,),-,Stationary:
Part B Prep_R,Capacity(1,),-,Stationary;
STATIONS: Part B Arrive:

Shipping:
Rework:
Part B Prep:
Sealer:
Part A Prep:
Scrap:
Part A Arrive:
Salvaged Parts;
COUNTERS: Salvaged Parts_C:
158
Scrap_C:
Shipping_C;
TALLIES: Salvaged Parts_Ta:

Rework_R_Q Queue Time:
Sealer_R_Q Queue Time:
Scrap_Ta:
Part B Prep_R_Q Queue Time:
Shipping_Ta:
Part A Prep_R_Q Queue Time;
DSTATS: NQ(Rework_R_Q),# in Rework_R_Q:

NR(Part A Prep_R),Part A Prep_R Busy:
NQ(Sealer_R_Q),# in Sealer_R_Q:
MR(Part B Prep_R),Part B Prep_R Available:
NQ(Part A Prep_R_Q),# in Part A Prep_R_Q:
MR(Sealer_R),Sealer_R Available:
MR(Part A Prep_R),Part A Prep_R Available:
MR(Rework_R),Rework_R Available:
NR(Sealer_R),Sealer_R Busy:
NR(Rework_R),Rework_R Busy:
NR(Part B Prep_R),Part B Prep_R Busy:
NQ(Part B Prep_R_Q),# in Part B Prep_R_Q;
REPLICATE, 1,0.0,2000,Yes,Yes;
159
‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺜﺎﻣﻦ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﺣﺰﻣﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪: ARENA‬‬
‫ﻣﻘﺪﻣﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺗﺨﺘﺺ ‪ Arena‬ﻓﻲ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ و ﻧﻤﺬﺟﺔ وﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺎت ‪Process Analysis, Modeling and‬‬
‫‪ Simulation‬ﻟﺪﻋﻢ ﻗﺮارات اﻷﻋﻤﺎل ‪.Business Decision Support‬‬

‫واﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺔ ‪ Process‬ھﻲ أي إﺟﺮاء أو ﻋﻤﻞ ﯾﺘﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﺎﺋﻦ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ ﻣﻮرد ‪ Resource‬ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﻣﻮارد اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪.‬‬
‫واﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت ھﻲ أﺷﯿﺎء ﺣﺮﻛﯿﺔ ﺗﺘﻔﺎﻋﻞ ﻣﻊ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎت اﻟﻨﻈﺎم وﻣﻊ ﺑﻌﻀﮭﺎ اﻟﺒﻌﺾ وﺗﻘﻮم ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام‬
‫ﻣﻮارد اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪ .‬وﻗﺪ ﯾﻜﻮن ھﻨﺎك أﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻮع واﺣﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﻮاﺣﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻘﻮم ‪ Arena‬ﺑﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺎت وذﻟﻚ ﺑﻤﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻛﺎﺋﻨﺎت ﺗﻤﺮ ﺑﻤﺮاﺣﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺎت ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎت ‪:Arena‬‬
‫ﺷﻐﻞ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ‪ Arena‬ﻓﺘﻈﮭﺮ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ ﻣﻨﻈﺮ ﻣﺨﻄﻂ اﻹﻧﺴﯿﺎب واﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺘﻢ ﻓﯿﮫ إدﺧﺎل اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻣﺨﻄﻂ إﻧﺴﯿﺎب وﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ ﻣﻨﻈﺮ ﺻﻔﺤﺔ اﻟﻨﺸﺮ وﯾﻈﮭﺮ ﻓﯿﮫ ﺧﻮاص ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎت‬
‫اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺻﻔﺤﺔ ﻧﺸﺮ وﻋﺎﻣﻮد اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع ‪ Project Bar‬وﯾﺤﻮي ﻋﻠﻰ ﻟﻮﺣﺔ اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺎت‬
‫اﻷﺳﺎﺳﯿﺔ ‪ Basic Process Panel‬وﻟﻮﺣﺔ اﻟﺘﻘﺎرﯾﺮ ‪ Reports Panel‬وﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﺠﻮال ‪Navigate‬‬
‫‪ Panel‬ﻛﻤﺎﯾﻤﻜﻦ إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻟﻮﺣﺎت اﺧﺮى ﺑﺎﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﺑﺰر اﻟﻔﺎرة اﻷﯾﻤﻦ داﺧﻞ ﻋﺎﻣﻮد اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع ﻓﺘﻈﮭﺮ‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار أﺧﺘﺎر ﻣﻨﮭﺎ ‪ Attach...‬ﻓﺘﻈﮭﺮ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻠﻔﺎت ﺗﺤﻮي ﻟﻮﺣﺎت ﻣﺘﻄﻮرة ﻣﺜﻞ اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺎت‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻄﻮرة ‪ Advanced Process Panel‬وﻟﻮﺣﺔ اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ ‪ Blocks Panel‬وﻟﻮﺣﺔ اﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ‬
‫‪ Elements Panel‬وﻏﯿﺮھﺎ‪.‬‬
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161
‫ﻟﻐﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة )‪SIMAN ( SIMulation ANalysis‬‬
‫ﯾﺘﻜﻮن اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج اﻟﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪ SIMAN‬ﻣﻦ إطﺎر ﻧﻤﻮذج ‪ MODEL FRAME‬وإطﺎر ﺗﺠﺮﺑﺔ‬
‫‪EXPERIMENT FRAME‬‬
‫إطﺎر اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‪ :‬ﯾﺼﻒ اﻹﻧﺴﯿﺎب اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘﻲ ﻟﻸﺣﺪاث ﺿﻤﻦ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪ .‬واﻟﻌﺒﺎرات ﻓﻲ إطﺎر اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‬
‫ﺗﺴﻤﻲ ﻗﻮاﻟﺐ ‪ BLOCKS‬وﯾﻌﻄﻰ اﻟﻤﻠﻒ اﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ‪ MOD‬ﻛﻤﺜﺎل ‪SM.MOD‬‬
‫إطﺎر اﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ‪ :‬ﯾﻌﯿﻦ ﺷﺮوط اﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ ﻹﺟﺮاء اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‪ .‬اﻟﻌﺒﺎرات ﻓﻲ إطﺎر اﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ ﺗﺴﻤﻰ ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ‬
‫‪ ELEMENTS‬وﯾﻌﻄﻰ اﻟﻤﻠﻒ اﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ‪ EXP‬ﻛﻤﺜﺎل ‪SM.EXP‬‬
‫وﻟﻐﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪ SIMAN‬ھﻲ ﻣﻦ أﻗﻮى ﻟﻐﺎت اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة وأﻗﺪﻣﮭﺎ وﺗﺘﺒﻊ اﻹﺗﺠﺎه اﻟﻤﻨﺤﻰ ﺷﯿﺌﻲ‬
‫‪ Object-Orientation‬وﻗﺪ أﺳﺘﺨﺪﻣﮭﺎ ﻣﻄﻮري ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ‪ Arena‬ﻛﺂﻟﺔ اﻟﻌﻤﻞ اﻟﺨﻔﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻘﻮم ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻤﻞ‬
‫اﻟﻔﻌﻠﻲ واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺨﺘﻔﻲ ﺗﺤﺖ واﺟﺔ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﺼﻮرﯾﺔ ‪ GUI‬ﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ‪ .Arena‬وﻗﺪ ﺟﻌﻠﮭﺎ ﻣﻄﻮري‬
‫ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ‪ Arena‬ﻓﻲ ﻣﺘﻨﺎول اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﻤﺘﻄﻮر ) ﻣﻊ ﻟﻐﺔ اﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﺔ ‪ VBA‬اﯾﻀﺎ ( ﻟﻜﻲ ﯾﺴﺘﻄﯿﻊ ﻛﺘﺎﺑﺔ‬
‫وﺣﺪات ﺟﺪﯾﺪة ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﺘﻮﻓﺮة ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﻌﺎدي‪.‬‬
‫وﺳﻮف ﻧﺴﺘﻌﺮﺿﮭﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻷﻣﺜﻠﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
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‫أوﻻ‪ :‬أﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺎت اﻷﺳﺎﺳﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪:1‬‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﺒﺪأ ﺑﺒﻨﺎء ﻧﻤﻮذج أوﻟﻲ ﺑﺴﯿﻂ ﺛﻢ ﻧﺰﯾﺪه ﺗﻔﺎﺻﯿﻞ أﻛﺜﺮ ﺣﺘﻰ ﻧﺼﻞ إﻟﻰ إﺳﺘﻌﺮاض ﻣﻌﻈﻢ‬
‫ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎت ‪.Arena‬‬
‫ﻟﺒﻨﺎء ﻧﻤﻮذج ﻧﺤﺘﺎج إﻟﻰ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﻔﺎﻋﻞ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم وﻣﻦ ﺛﻢ ﻧﺤﺘﺎج إﻟﻰ اﻟﺘﺨﻠﺺ ﻣﻦ ھﺬه‬
‫اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت‪.‬‬
‫ﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻛﺎﺋﻨﺎت ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪم وﺣﺪة ‪ Create Module‬وﻟﻠﺘﺨﻠﺺ ﻣﻨﮭﺎ ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﻮﺣﺪة ‪Dispose Module‬‬
‫وﺣﺪة وﻟﺪ )ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ( ‪Create Module‬‬
‫ﯾﺘﻢ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت ﺑﻮﺣﺪة ‪ Create Module‬إﺳﻢ اﻟﻮﺣﺪة ﯾﻜﺘﺐ ﻓﻲ داﺧﻠﮭﺎ وﻓﻲ اﻟﻄﺮف اﻷﯾﻤﻦ‬
‫(‪.‬‬ ‫اﻟﺴﻔﻠﻲ ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ )وﯾﻈﮭﺮ ﺣﺎﻟﯿﺎ ﺻﻔﺮ( ﻛﻤﺎ ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﻣﺨﺮج واﺣﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻮﺣﺪة )‬
‫ﻧﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ھﺬة اﻟﻮﺣﺪة ﻣﻦ ﺳﺤﺐ أﯾﻘﻮﻧﺘﮭﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺎت اﻷﺳﺎﺳﯿﺔ ‪ Basic Process‬واﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﻓﻲ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ‪ Arena‬وھﺬه اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة ﺗﺨﺘﺺ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺎت اﻷﺳﺎﺳﯿﺔ واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻌﺘﺒﺮ أھﻢ وأول اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺎت‬
‫ﻓﻲ ‪ Arena‬واﻷﻛﺜﺮ ﺷﯿﻮﻋﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ اﻷﻧﻈﻤﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﺘﻮﻟﺪ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت ﺑﻨﺎء ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻮﻗﺖ ‪ Schedule‬او ﻋﻠﻰ ازﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ‪Inter Creation Time‬‬
‫)‪ .(ICT‬وﺗﺘﺤﺮك اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻟﺘﺘﻢ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺔ أو ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺎت ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪ .‬وﯾﺘﺤﺪد ﻧﻮع اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ أﺛﻨﺎء‬
‫ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪه ﻓﻲ ھﺬه اﻟﻮﺣﺪة‪.‬‬
‫وﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﻮﺣﺪة ‪ Create‬ﻏﺎﻟﺒﺎ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪ -‬ﻛﺒﺪاﯾﺔ ﻹﻧﺘﺎج ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺧﻂ ﺗﺼﻨﯿﻊ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬وﺻﻮل وﺛﯿﻘﺔ ) ﻣﺜﻞ طﻠﺐ أو أﻣﺮ ﺻﺮف أو إﺳﺘﻤﺎرة اﻟﺦ( ﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺔ ﺗﺠﺎرﯾﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬وﺻﻮل زﺑﻮن ﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺔ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ )ﻣﺜﻞ ﻣﻄﻌﻢ أو ﺑﻨﻚ أو ﺑﻘﺎﻟﺔ أو ﻣﻮظﻒ إﻋﻼم اﻟﺦ(‪.‬‬
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‫ﻹظﮭﺎر ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺧﻮاﺻﮭﺎ ﻧﺴﺤﺐ وﺣﺪة ‪ Create‬وﻧﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻔﺎرة ﻣﺮﺗﯿﻦ ﻓﺘﻈﮭﺮ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺧﻮاص‬
‫‪ Create‬اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺨﻮاص ﻓﻲ طﻮر ﻣﺨﻄﻂ اﻹﻧﺴﯿﺎب‪:‬‬
‫واﻟﺘﻲ ﻧﻜﺒﺮھﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪164‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار ﻧﻮع ‪ Type‬ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ )‪Random(Expo‬‬
‫‪165‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار ﻧﻮع ‪ Type‬ﺗﻮﻗﯿﺖ )ﺟﺪوﻟﺔ( ‪Schedule‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺤﻮار ﻧﻮع ‪ Type‬ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ‪Constant‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار ﻧﻮع ‪ Type‬ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ‪Expression‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار ﻧﻮع ‪ Type‬ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ‪ Expression‬ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ‪Expression‬‬
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‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺨﻮاص ﻓﻲ طﻮر ﺻﻔﺤﺔ اﻟﻨﺸﺮ‪:‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار ﻧﻮع ‪ Type‬ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ )‪Random(expo‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار ﻧﻮع ‪ Type‬ﺗﻮﻗﯿﺖ )ﺟﺪوﻟﺔ( ‪Schedule‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺤﻮار ﻧﻮع ‪ Type‬ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ‪Constant‬‬
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‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار ﻧﻮع ‪ Type‬ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ‪Expression‬‬
‫وﻧﻔﺼﻞ ﻧﻮاﻓﺬ اﻟﺨﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﻛﺎﻵﺗﻲ‪:‬‬

‫اﻟﻮﺻﻒ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب‬
‫وھﻮ ﻣﻌﺮف ﻟﻠﻮﺣﺪة ‪ Module Identifier‬وﺣﯿﺪ‬ ‫إﺳﻢ ‪Name‬‬
‫ﻻﯾﺘﻜﺮر وﯾﻈﮭﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻜﻞ اﻟﻮﺣﺪة‪.‬‬

‫إﺳﻢ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﺬي ﺳﯿﻮﻟﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻧﻮع اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ ‪Entity Type‬‬
‫ﻧﻮع "ﺳﯿﻞ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل" ‪ Arrival Streem‬اﻟﺬي‬ ‫ﻧﻮع ‪Type‬‬
‫ﺳﯿﻮﻟﺪ وﯾﺸﻤﻞ "ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ" ‪ Random‬أو‬

‫"ﻣﻮﻗﺖ" ‪ Schedule‬أو "ﺛﺎﺑﺖ" ‪ Constant‬أو‬
‫"ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ" ‪.Expression‬‬
‫وﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻓﻘﻂ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﻜﻮن اﻟﻨﻮع "ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ"‬ ‫ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ‪Value‬‬
‫)ﻓﯿﻌﻄﻲ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ( أو "ﺛﺎﺑﺖ" )وﺗﻌﻄﻰ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ‬

‫ﺛﺎﺑﺘﺔ ﻣﺜﻞ ‪.(20‬‬
‫وﯾﻌﺮف "إﺳﻢ اﻟﺘﻮﻗﯿﺖ" اﻟﺬي ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺨﺪم‪.‬‬ ‫إﺳﻢ اﻟﺘﻮﻗﯿﺖ ‪Schedule Name‬‬
‫"اﻟﺘﻮﻗﯿﺖ" ﯾﻌﺮف ﻧﻤﻂ وﺻﻮل اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم‪.‬‬

‫وﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻓﻘﻂ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﻜﻮن اﻟﻨﻮع "ﺗﻮﻗﯿﺖ"‪.‬‬
‫أي ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ أو ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﺗﺤﺪد "زﻣﻦ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ"‪.‬‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ‪Expression‬‬
‫وﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻓﻘﻂ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﻜﻮن اﻟﻨﻮع "ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ"‪.‬‬

‫وﺣﺪات اﻟﺰﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻟـ"ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ"‬ ‫وﺣﺪات ‪Units‬‬
‫أوﻟـ"زﻣﻦ أول ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ" ‪First Creation Time‬‬
‫وﻻﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﻜﻮن اﻟﻨﻮع "ﺗﻮﻗﯿﺖ"‪.‬‬

‫ﻋﺪد اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺳﺘﺪﺧﻞ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻋﻨﺪ ﻛﻞ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻛﺎﺋﻦ ﻟﻜﻞ وﺻﻮل ‪Entities per Arrival‬‬
‫أﻗﺼﻰ ﻋﺪد ﻟﻠﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺳﺘﻮﻟﺪ‪ .‬وﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﺼﻞ‬ ‫أﻗﺼﻰ وﺻﻮل ‪Max Arrival‬‬
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.‫ﻋﺪد اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻟﻤﻮﻟﺪة ﻟﮭﺬا اﻟﺮﻗﻢ ﯾﺘﻮﻗﻒ اﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ‬
.‫زﻣﻦ اﻟﺒﺪئ ﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ أول ﻛﺎﺋﻦ ﯾﺪﺧﻞ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‬ First Creation ‫أول ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ‬
."‫وﻻﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﻜﻮن اﻟﻨﻮع "ﺗﻮﻗﯿﺖ‬
: SIMAN ‫ ﺑﻠﻐﺔ‬Create ‫وﺣﺪة ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ‬

:‫ﻣﻠﻒ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ‬
PROJECT, "Unnamed Project","Dr. A.
Barry",,,No,Yes,Yes,Yes,No,No,No;
VARIABLES: Create
1.NumberOut,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude");
PICTURES: Picture.Airplane:
Picture.Green Ball:
Picture.Blue Page:
Picture.Telephone:
Picture.Blue Ball:
Picture.Yellow Page:
Picture.EMail:
Picture.Yellow Ball:
Picture.Bike:
Picture.Report:
Picture.Van:
Picture.Widgets:
Picture.Envelope:
Picture.Fax:
Picture.Truck:
Picture.Letter:
Picture.Box:
Picture.Woman:
Picture.Package:
Picture.Man:
169
Picture.Diskette:
Picture.Boat:
Picture.Red Page:
Picture.Green Page:
Picture.Red Ball;
REPLICATE, 1,,,Yes,Yes,,,,24,Hours,No,No;
ENTITIES: Entity
1,Picture.Report,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,AUTOSTATS(Yes,,)
;
:‫ﻣﻠﻒ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‬
;
; Model statements for module: Create 1
;
0$ CREATE,
1,HoursToBaseTime(0.0),Entity
1:HoursToBaseTime(EXPO(1)):NEXT(1$);
1$ ASSIGN: Create 1.NumberOut=Create

1.NumberOut + 1;
Dispose Module (‫وﺣﺪة ﺗﺨﻠﺺ )إﻧﮭﺎء‬
.‫وﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ھﺬه اﻟﻮﺣﺪة ﻹﻧﮭﺎء وﺟﻮد اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﺑﻌﺪ إﺗﻤﺎم ﻣﮭﺎﻣﮫ‬
:‫وﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻏﺎﻟﺒﺎ‬
.‫ أﺟﺰاء ﻣﺼﻨﻌﺔ ﺗﻐﺎدر اﻟﻤﺼﻨﻊ ﻟﻠﺴﻮق‬-
.‫ إﻧﮭﺎء ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺔ ﺗﺠﺎرﯾﺔ‬-
170
‫‪ -‬زﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﯾﻐﺎدرو ﺑﻘﺎﻟﺔ‪.‬‬
‫وﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺨﻮاص ﻓﻲ طﻮر ﻣﺨﻄﻂ اﻹﻧﺴﯿﺎب‪:‬‬
‫وﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺨﻮاص ﻓﻲ طﻮر ﺻﻔﺤﺔ اﻟﻨﺸﺮ‪:‬‬
‫وﺗﺤﻮي‪:‬‬
‫إﺳﻢ وﺣﯿﺪ ﻟﺘﻌﺮﯾﻒ اﻟﻮﺣﺪة وﺗﻈﮭﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻜﻞ‬ ‫إﺳﻢ ‪Name‬‬
‫اﻟﻮﺣﺪة‪.‬‬
‫وﺗﺤﺪد ﻓﯿﻤﺎ إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ إﺣﺼﺎءات اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﻘﺎدم‬ ‫ﺳﺠﻞ إﺣﺼﺎءات اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ ‪Record Entity‬‬
‫ﺗﺴﺠﻞ أوﻻ‪.‬‬ ‫‪Statistics‬‬
‫وﺣﺪة ﺗﺨﻠﺺ ‪ Dipose‬ﺑﻠﻐﺔ ‪: SIMAN‬‬

‫ﻣﻠﻒ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪PROJECT,‬‬ ‫‪"Unnamed Project","Dr. A.‬‬
‫;‪Barry",,,No,Yes,Yes,Yes,No,No,No‬‬
‫‪VARIABLES:‬‬ ‫‪Dispose‬‬
‫;)"‪1.NumberOut,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude‬‬
‫‪REPLICATE,‬‬ ‫;‪1,,,Yes,Yes,,,,24,Hours,No,No‬‬
‫ﻣﻠﻒ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‪:‬‬
‫;‬
‫;‬ ‫‪Model statements for module:‬‬ ‫‪Dispose 1‬‬
‫‪171‬‬
‫;‬
‫‪0$‬‬ ‫‪ASSIGN:‬‬ ‫‪Dispose 1.NumberOut=Dispose‬‬
‫;‪1.NumberOut + 1‬‬
‫‪1$‬‬ ‫‪DISPOSE:‬‬ ‫;‪Yes‬‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﻘﻮم ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻤﺜﺎل ﺑﺈﺳﺘﻌﺮاض اﻟﻮﺣﺪﺗﯿﻦ ‪ Create‬و ‪ .Dispose‬ﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﯾﺼﻠﻮ وﯾﻐﺎدرو‬
‫ﻧﻨﻈﺮ إﻟﻰ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺧﻮاص ‪ Create‬ﺑﻄﻮر ﻣﺨﻄﻂ اﻹﻧﺴﯿﺎب‪:‬‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ إﺳﻢ ‪ Name‬وﺣﺪة اﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ ‪ Customers Arrive‬وﻧﻮع اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ ‪ Entity Type‬ھﻮ ‪Customer‬‬
‫زﻣﻦ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل ‪ Time Between Arrivals‬ﻧﻮﻋﮫ ‪ Type‬ھﻮ )‪ Random (Expo‬وﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫زﻣﻦ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل ﻟﻠﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻷﺳﻲ ‪ Value‬ھﻲ ‪ 1‬ووﺣﺪات اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ‪ Units‬ھﻨﺎ دﻗﺎﺋﻖ ‪Minutes‬‬
‫ﻋﺪد اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻮﻟﺪ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻛﻞ ﺣﺪث وﺻﻮل ‪ Entities per Arrival‬ھﻨﺎ ‪ 1‬وأﻗﺼﻰ ﻋﺪد ﻟﻠﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت‬
‫اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺼﻞ ‪ Max Arrival‬ھﻨﺎ ﻻﻧﮭﺎﺋﻲ ‪ Infinite‬وزﻣﻦ أو ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ )وﺻﻮل( ‪ First Creation‬ھﻨﺎ ‪0.0‬‬
‫ﻧﻨﻈﺮ إﻟﻰ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺧﻮاص ‪ Create‬ﺑﻄﻮر ﺻﻔﺤﺔ اﻟﻨﺸﺮ‪:‬‬
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‫ھﺬا اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج اﻟﺒﺴﯿﻂ ﺟﺪا ﻻﯾﺤﻮي ﺳﻮي ﻛﺎﺋﻨﺎت ﺗﺼﻞ وﺗﻐﺎدر‪ .‬ﺳﻮف ﻧﻨﻈﺮ إﻟﻰ أﺣﺪ وﺣﺪات‬
‫اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ‪ Data Modules‬وھﻲ‬
‫وﺣﺪة اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ ‪Entity Module‬‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ وﺣﺪة اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻣﻮد اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع ﺗﺤﺖ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺎت اﻷﺻﻠﯿﺔ واﻟﺬي ﻟﮫ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ‬
‫ﯾﻈﮭﺮ ﻓﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج )ﻣﻨﻈﺮ ﺻﻔﺤﺔ اﻟﻨﺸﺮ( اﻟﺴﻄﺮ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫وﻟﺘﻮﺿﯿﺤﮫ ﻧﻘﺴﻤﮫ إﻟﻰ ﺳﻄﺮﯾﻦ‬
‫ووﺣﺪة اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ ﺗﻌﺮف ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ أﻧﻮاع اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت وﺻﻮرھﺎ اﻷوﻟﯿﺔ وﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﺗﻌﻄﯿﻠﮭﺎ وﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻀﺎﻓﺔ اﻷوﻟﯿﺔ وﻗﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ ﻏﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﻀﺎﻓﺔ اﻷوﻟﯿﺔ وﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر اﻷوﻟﻲ وﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻹﻧﺘﻘﺎل اﻷوﻟﻰ‬
‫وأي ﺗﻜﺎﻟﯿﻒ أوﻟﯿﺔ اﺧﺮي ﻛﻤﺎ ﻧﺴﺘﻄﯿﻊ ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ إذا أردﻧﺎ ﺗﺴﺠﯿﻞ إﺣﺼﺎءات أم ﻻ‪.‬‬
‫وﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻋﺎدة‪:‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻗﻄﻊ ﺗﻨﺘﺞ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺼﻨﻊ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻣﺴﺘﻨﺪات ﻓﻲ ﻣﻜﺘﺐ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬زﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﻓﻲ ﺑﻨﻚ‪.‬‬
‫‪173‬‬
‫وﯾﻈﮭﺮ ﻓﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮذج اﻟﺒﺴﯿﻂ وﺣﺪة ﺑﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ ﺗﺨﺘﺎر ﺑﺎﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫)ﺻﻔﺤﺔ اﻟﻨﺸﺮ( اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ )ﻗﺴﻤﺖ ﺟﺰﺋﯿﻦ ﻟﻠﺘﻮﺿﯿﺢ(‪:‬‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻄﻮر ﻧﺴﺘﻄﯿﻊ إدﺧﺎل ﺑﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﻋﻦ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻟﺪ ﻣﺜﻞ إﻋﻄﺎﺋﺔ ﺻﻮرة أوﻟﯿﺔ ‪Initial‬‬
‫‪) Picture‬ھﻨﺎ أﺧﺘﺮﻧﺎ ﺻﻮرة رﺟﻞ ‪ (Picture Man‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ إدﺧﺎل اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺴﺎﻋﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﻄﯿﻞ‬
‫‪ Holding Cost/Hour‬واﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻷوﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻀﺎﻓﺔ ‪ Initial VA Cost‬واﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻷوﻟﯿﺔ ﻏﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﻀﺎﻓﺔ‬
‫‪ Initial NVA Cost‬وﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر اﻷوﻟﯿﺔ ‪ Initial Waiting Cost‬وﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﻨﻘﻞ اﻷوﻟﯿﺔ ‪Initial‬‬
‫‪ Tran Cost‬وأي ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ أوﻟﯿﺔ ‪) Initial Other Cost‬ﻻﺣﻆ ان ھﺬة اﻟﻘﯿﻢ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ أن ﺗﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ‬
‫ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ أو ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ أﺛﻨﺎء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة أوﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ وﺣﺪة أﺳﻨﺪ ‪ (Assign Module‬وأﺧﯿﺮ إذا أردﻧﺎ إﺣﺼﺎءات‬
‫ﻋﻦ ھﺬه اﻟﻮﺣﺪة ﻧﺆﺷﺮ ﻓﻲ ‪.Report Statistics‬‬
‫ﻗﺒﻞ إﺟﺮاء اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﻻﺑﺪ أن ﻧﻘﻮم ﺑﺘﺠﮭﯿﺰه ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ اﻟﺮﺋﯿﺴﺔ ﻧﺨﺘﺎر ‪ Run‬ﺛﻢ ‪Setup...‬‬
‫‪174‬‬
‫ﻓﺘﻈﮭﺮ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار اﻟﺘﺠﮭﯿﺰ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻣﻌﺎﻟﻢ اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع ‪ Project Parameters‬أدﺧﻠﻨﺎ ﻋﻨﻮان اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع ‪ Project Title‬وإﺳﻢ ﻣﺤﻠﻞ‬
‫اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ‪ Analyst Name‬وﻓﻲ اﻹﺣﺼﺎءات اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻌﺔ ‪ Statistics Collection‬أﺧﺘﺮﻧﺎ "ﻛﺎﺋﻨﺎت"‬
‫‪) Entities‬ﻟﯿﺲ ﻟﺪﯾﻨﺎ ﺳﻮاھﺎ ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج(‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﻣﻌﺎﻟﻢ اﻟﺘﻜﺮار )ﻋﺪد ﻣﺮات إﺟﺮاء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة(‬
‫‪Replication Parameters‬‬
‫‪175‬‬
‫ﻋﺪد ﻣﺮات اﻟﺘﻜﺮار ‪ Number of Replications‬ھﻨﺎ ‪ 1‬ﻓﺘﺮة اﻟﺘﺤﻤﯿﺔ )أو اﻟﺘﺴﺨﯿﻦ( ‪Warm-up‬‬
‫‪ Period‬ھﻨﺎ ‪ 0.0‬ووﺣﺪاﺗﮭﺎ ‪ Time Units‬ﺑﺎﻟﺴﺎﻋﺔ )ﻓﺘﺮة اﻟﺘﺴﺨﯿﻦ ھﻮ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ اﻟﺬي ﻧﺠﺮي ﻓﯿﮫ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﺪون ﺗﺴﺠﯿﻞ أي إﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺎت وذﻟﻚ ﺗﺤﺴﺒﺎ ﻟﻠﻔﺘﺮة اﻹﻧﺘﻘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ‪ Transient State‬اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﻤﺮ ﺑﮭﺎ‬
‫اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﺣﺘﻰ ﯾﺼﻞ إﻟﻰ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ اﻟﺘﻮازن ‪ .(Steady State‬طﻮل اﻟﺘﻜﺮار ‪ Replication Length‬ھﻨﺎ‬
‫‪ 10‬ﺳﺎﻋﺎت‪ .‬ﻋﺪد اﻟﺴﺎﻋﺎت ﻓﻲ اﻟﯿﻮم ‪ Hours Per Day‬ھﻨﺎ ‪ 24‬ووﺣﺪاﺗﮫ ﺳﺎﻋﺔ ) اﻟﻐﺮض ﻣﻦ ھﺬا‬
‫ھﻮ ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ ﺳﺎﻋﺎت ﯾﻮم اﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻣﺜﻼ ﻗﺪ ﯾﻜﻮن ‪ 8‬ﺳﺎﻋﺎت(‪ .‬واﻟﻮﺣﺪة اﻷﺳﺎﺳﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﺰﻣﻦ ‪Base Time‬‬
‫‪ Units‬وھﻨﺎ ﺳﺎﻋﺔ ‪ . Hours‬ﺑﻘﯿﺔ اﻟﻘﯿﻢ ﻣﺜﻞ اﻟﺴﺮﻋﺔ ‪ Speed‬واﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﺑﺄﻹﺟﺮاء ‪Run Control‬‬
‫واﻟﺘﻘﺎرﯾﺮ ‪ Reports‬ﻧﺒﻘﯿﮭﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻗﯿﻤﮭﺎ اﻹﻓﺘﺮاﺿﯿﺔ ‪.Default‬‬

‫اﻹﺟﺮاء‪:‬‬
‫ﻗﺒﻞ إﺟﺮاء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻧﻘﻮم ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج وذﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻔﺘﺎح ‪ F4‬أو ﻧﺨﺘﺎر ‪ Run‬ﻣﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ اﻟﺮﺋﯿﺴﺔ ﺛﻢ ‪Check Model‬‬
‫‪176‬‬
‫إذا ﻛﺎن اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﺳﻠﯿﻢ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﺎﺣﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘﯿﺔ ﺗﻈﮭﺮ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة‬
‫ﻣﻊ اﻟﺮﺳﺎﻟﺔ " ﻻﺗﻮﺟﺪ أﺧﻄﺎء أو ﺗﺤﺬﯾﺮات ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج"‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ اﻷدوات اﻟﻘﯿﺎﺳﯿﺔ‬ ‫ﻹﺟﺮاء اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج إﻣﺎ ﻧﻀﻐﻂ ﻣﻔﺘﺎح ‪ F5‬أو ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻓﻲ اﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ اﻟﺮﺋﯿﺴﺔ أو ﻣﻦ ‪ Run‬ﺛﻢ ‪Go‬‬
‫اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ‬
‫‪177‬‬
.‫ ﯾﺘﺮك ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﺗﺼﻔﺢ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ وﺗﻔﺴﯿﺮ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‬:‫ﺗﻤﺮﯾﻦ‬
SIMAN ‫اﻟﻤﺜﺎل ﺑﻠﻐﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻠﻒ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ‬
PROJECT, "First Example ( Create - Dispose )","Dr.
A. Barry",,,No,Yes,No,No,No,No,No;
VARIABLES: Customers
Arrive.NumberOut,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):
Customers
Leave.NumberOut,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude");
178
Picture.Green Ball:
Picture.Blue Page:
Picture.Telephone:
Picture.Blue Ball:
Picture.EMail:
Picture.Bike:
Picture.Report:
Picture.Van:
Picture.Widgets:
Picture.Envelope:
Picture.Fax:
Picture.Truck:
Picture.Letter:
Picture.Box:
Picture.Woman:
Picture.Package:
Picture.Man:
Picture.Diskette:
Picture.Boat:
Picture.Red Page:
Picture.Green Page:
Picture.Red Ball;
REPLICATE,
1,,HoursToBaseTime(10),Yes,Yes,,,,24,Hours,No,No;
ENTITIES:
Customer,Picture.Man,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,AUTOSTATS(Ye
s,,);
‫ﻣﻠﻒ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‬
179
;
1$ CREATE,
1,MinutesToBaseTime(0.0),Customer:MinutesToBaseTime(EXPO(
1)):NEXT(2$);
2$ ASSIGN: Customers
Arrive.NumberOut=Customers Arrive.NumberOut + 1:NEXT(0$);
;
;
; Model statements for module: Dispose 1
;
Leave.NumberOut=Customers Leave.NumberOut + 1;
5$ DISPOSE: Yes;
180
‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪:2‬‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﻄﻮر اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺑﺤﯿﺚ ﻧﺠﻌﻞ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻣﻮرد ‪ Resource‬ﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﮫ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت ﻋﻨﺪ‬
‫دﺧﻮﻟﮭﻢ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻟﮭﺬا اﻟﻐﺮض ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪم وﺣﺪة اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺔ ‪ Process Module‬واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻘﻮم ﺑﻌﻤﻞ ﻣﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ أو‬
‫ﻟﻠﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت وﻟﮭﺎ اﻟﺘﺮﻛﯿﺐ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫وﺣﺪة اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺔ ‪:Process Module‬‬
‫إﺳﻢ اﻟﻮﺣﺪة ﯾﻜﺘﺐ ﻓﻲ داﺧﻠﮭﺎ وﻣﺤﺘﻮى اﻟﻮﺣﺪة ﯾﻜﺘﺐ ﻓﻲ اﺳﻔﻠﮭﺎ وھﻮ ﺣﺎﻟﯿﺎ ﺻﻔﺮ وﻟﻠﻮﺣﺪة ﻣﺪﺧﻞ‬
‫(‪.‬‬ ‫( وﻣﺨﺮج واﺣﺪ )‬ ‫واﺣﺪ )‬
‫وھﺬة اﻟﻮﺣﺪة ﺗﻘﻮم ﺑﺎﻟﻤﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ أو اﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة وﺗﺤﻮي ﺧﯿﺎرات ﻹﻣﺴﺎك وﺗﺮك اﻟﻤﻮارد‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﺎﺣﺔ‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﺑﮭﺎ ﺧﯿﺎر إﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻧﻤﻮذج ﻓﺮﻋﻲ ‪ Submodel‬وﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ اﻟﺘﺴﻠﺴﻞ اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘﻲ اﻟﺬي‬
‫ﯾﻌﻄﻰ ﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪم ‪ .Hierarchical User-defined Logic‬زﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ ﯾﻌﻄﻰ ﻟﻠﻜﺎﺋﻦ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ھﺬه اﻟﻮﺣﺪة وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﯾﻜﻮن "ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻣﻀﺎﻓﺔ" ‪ ) Value Added‬وھﺬا ﯾﻌﻨﻲ أن اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺔ ﺗﺰﯾﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ‬
‫أو ﺗﺮﻓﻊ ﻣﻦ ﺷﺄن أو ﺗﻀﯿﻒ ﺷﯿﺊ إﻟﻰ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ( أو "ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﻀﺎﻓﺔ" ‪ Non-value Added‬أو‬
‫"إﻧﺘﻘﺎل" ‪ Transfer‬أو "إﻧﺘﻈﺎر" ‪ Wait‬أو اي "ﺷﯿﺊ آﺧﺮ" ‪ .Other‬اﻟﺘﻜﺎﻟﯿﻒ اﻟﻤﺘﺮﺗﺒﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻌﻤﻞ‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﺗﻀﺎف ﻟﻠﻔﺌﺔ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪181‬‬
‫وإﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﺎﺗﮭﺎ ﺗﻜﻮن ﻏﺎﻟﺒﺎ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻣﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﺑﺂﻟﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻣﺮاﺟﻌﺔ وﺛﯿﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ طﻠﺒﺎت‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺧﺪﻣﺔ زﺑﻮن‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار ﻧﻮع ‪: Type‬‬
‫‪182‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻖ ‪ Logic‬ﺗﺼﺮف ‪: Action‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار ﻧﻮع اﻟﺘﺄﺧﯿﺮ ‪) Delay Type‬ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﺜﻠﺜﻲ ‪(Triangular‬‬
‫‪183‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار ﻧﻮع اﻟﺘﺄﺧﯿﺮ ‪) Delay Type‬ﺛﺎﺑﺖ ‪(Constant‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار ﻧﻮع اﻟﺘﺄﺧﯿﺮ ‪) Delay Type‬طﺒﯿﻌﻲ ‪(Normal‬‬
‫‪184‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار ﻧﻮع اﻟﺘﺄﺧﯿﺮ ‪) Delay Type‬ﻣﺘﺴﺎوي ‪(Uniform‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار ﻧﻮع اﻟﺘﺄﺧﯿﺮ ‪) Delay Type‬ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ‪(Expression‬‬
‫‪185‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار اﻟﺘﻌﯿﯿﻦ ‪Allocation‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺨﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﻓﻲ طﻮر ﺻﻔﺤﺔ اﻟﻨﺸﺮ‪:‬‬

‫ﻣﻊ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار ﻧﻮع‬
‫‪186‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار اﻟﺘﺼﺮف‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار ﻧﻮع اﻟﺘﺄﺧﺮ )ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ(‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار اﻟﺘﻌﯿﯿﻦ‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ‬
‫وﻧﻔﺼﻞ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺨﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﻛﺎﻵﺗﻲ‪:‬‬

‫وھﻮ ﻣﻌﺮف ﻟﻠﻮﺣﺪة ‪ Module Identifier‬وﺣﯿﺪ‬ ‫إﺳﻢ ‪Name‬‬
‫ﻻﯾﺘﻜﺮر وﯾﻈﮭﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻜﻞ اﻟﻮﺣﺪة‪.‬‬

‫طﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻖ داﺧﻞ اﻟﻮﺣﺪة‪ .‬ﻣﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﻧﻮع ‪Type‬‬
‫‪187‬‬
‫"ﻗﯿﺎﺳﯿﺔ" ‪ Standard‬ﺗﺤﺪد ان ﻛﻞ اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻖ ﺳﻮف‬
‫ﯾﺨﺰن داﺧﻞ وﺣﺪة اﻟﻤﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ وﯾﻌﺮف ﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ‬
‫إﺟﺮاء ﻣﻌﯿﻦ‪" .‬ﻧﻤﻮذج ﻓﺮﻋﻲ" ‪Submodel‬‬
‫ﯾﺤﺪد أن اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻖ ﺳﻮف ﯾﻌﺮف ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺗﺴﻠﺴﻠﻲ‬

‫ﻓﻲ ﻧﻤﻮذج ﻓﺮﻋﻲ واﻟﺬي ﻗﺪ ﯾﺸﻤﻞ أي ﻋﺪد ﻣﻦ‬
‫وﺣﺪات اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻖ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﻮع اﻟﻤﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺳﺘﺤﺪث داﺧﻞ اﻟﻮﺣﺪة‪.‬‬ ‫إﺟﺮاء ‪Action‬‬
‫"ﺗﺄﺧﯿﺮ" ‪ Delay‬ﯾﺤﺪد ﺑﺒﺴﺎطﺔ اﻧﮫ ﺳﯿﺤﺪث‬

‫ﺗﺄﺧﯿﺮ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺔ ﺑﺪون إﻋﻄﺎء ﻟﻤﻮرد‪" .‬إﻣﺴﺎك‬
‫ﺗﺄﺧﺮ" ‪ Seize Delay‬ﯾﻌﻨﻲ أن ﻣﻮرد ﺳﻮف‬
‫ﯾﻌﻄﻰ ﻣﻊ ﺣﺪوث ﺗﺄﺧﺮ وﻟﻜﻦ ﺗﺮك اﻟﻤﻮرد ﺳﯿﺘﻢ‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪ وﻗﺖ آﺧﺮ‪" .‬إﻣﺴﺎك ﺗﺄﺧﺮ ﺗﺮك" ‪Seize‬‬
‫‪ Delay Release‬ﯾﻌﻨﻲ أن ﻣﻮرد ﺳﻮف ﯾﻌﻄﻰ‬

‫ﯾﺘﺒﻊ ﺑﻌﻤﻠﯿﺔ ﺗﺄﺧﺮ ﺛﻢ ﯾﺘﻢ ﺗﺮك اﻟﻤﻮرد‪" .‬ﺗﺄﺧﺮ‬
‫ﺗﺮك" ‪ Delay Release‬ﯾﻌﻨﻲ أن اﻟﻤﻮرد ﻗﺪ‬
‫اﻋﻄﻲ ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺎ وأﻧﮫ ﺳﯿﺤﺪث "ﺗﺄﺧﺮ" ﺛﻢ "ﯾﺘﺮك"‬
‫اﻟﻤﻮرد‪ .‬وھﺬا اﻷﺧﯿﺮ ﯾﻄﺒﻖ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﻜﻮن‬
‫اﻟﻨﻮع "ﻗﯿﺎﺳﻲ"‪.‬‬
‫ﻗﯿﻤﺔ اﻷوﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻜﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﺬي ﯾﻨﺘﻈﺮ ﻋﻨﺪ ھﺬه اﻟﻮﺣﺪة‬ ‫أوﻟﯿﺔ ‪Priority‬‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﻮرد اﻟﻤﺤﺪد‪ .‬وﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﻜﻮن ﻛﺎﺋﻦ أو‬

‫أﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ وﺣﺪة اﺧﺮى ﯾﻨﺘﻈﺮ ﻧﻔﺲ اﻟﻤﻮرد‪.‬‬
‫وﻻﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﻜﻮن اﻹﺟﺮاء "ﺗﺄﺧﺮ" أو‬
‫"ﺗﺄﺧﺮ ﺗﺮك" أو ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﻜﻮن اﻟﻨﻮع "ﻧﻤﻮذج‬
‫ﻓﺮﻋﻲ"‪.‬‬
‫وﯾﻌﺪد اﻟﻤﻮارد أو ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻮارد واﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﻮارد ‪Resources‬‬
‫ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻟﻤﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ‪ .‬ﻻﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﻜﻮن‬

‫اﻹﺟﺮاء "ﺗﺄﺧﺮ" أو ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﻜﻮن اﻟﻨﻮع "ﻧﻤﻮذج‬
‫ﻓﺮﻋﻲ"‪.‬‬
‫‪188‬‬
‫ﻧﻮع اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ أو طﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ ﻣﻌﺎﻟﻢ اﻟﺘﺄﺧﺮ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻧﻮع اﻟﺘﺄﺧﺮ ‪Delay Type‬‬
‫"ﺛﺎﺑﺖ" ‪ Constant‬و "ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ" ‪Expression‬‬
‫ﺗﺤﺘﺎج ﻗﯿﻤﺔ واﺣﺪة ﺑﯿﻨﻤﺎ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻌﺎت "طﺒﯿﻌﻲ"‬

‫‪ Normal‬و "ﻣﺘﺴﺎوي" ‪ Uniform‬و"ﻣﺜﻠﺜﻲ"‬
‫‪ Triangular‬ﺗﺤﺘﺎج ﻋﺪة ﻣﻌﺎﻟﻢ‪.‬‬
‫وﺣﺪات اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﻟﻤﻌﺎﻟﻢ اﻟﺘﺄﺧﺮ‪.‬‬ ‫وﺣﺪات ‪Units‬‬
‫وﺗﺤﺪد ﻛﯿﻔﺔ ﺗﺨﺼﯿﺺ زﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻤﻞ وﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﻌﻤﻞ‬ ‫ﺗﺨﺼﯿﺺ ‪Allocation‬‬
‫ﻟﻠﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت‪ .‬واﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﻧﻌﺘﺒﺮه "ﻗﯿﻤﺔ‬

‫ﻣﻀﺎﻓﺔ" ‪ Value Added‬أو "ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﻀﺎﻓﺔ"‬
‫‪ Non-value Added‬أو "إﻧﺘﻘﺎل" ‪ Transfer‬أو‬
‫"إﻧﺘﻈﺎر" ‪ Wait‬أو "ﻏﯿﺮ ذﻟﻚ" ‪Other‬‬
‫واﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺤﺎﺻﻠﺔ ﺳﻮف ﺗﻀﺎف ﻟﻠﻔﺌﺔ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ‬

‫ﻟﻠﻜﺎﺋﻦ واﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺧﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﯾﺪ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺼﻐﺮى ﻟﻠﺘﻮزﯾﻊ‬ ‫أﺻﻐﺮ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ‪Minimum‬‬
‫"اﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎوي" أو "اﻟﻤﺜﻠﺜﻲ"‪.‬‬
‫ﺧﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﯾﺪ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻟﻠﺘﻮزﯾﻊ "طﺒﯿﻌﻲ"‬ ‫ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ‪Value‬‬
‫أو ﻗﯿﻤﺔ "ﺛﺎﺑﺖ" ﻟﺘﺄﺧﯿﺮ زﻣﻨﻲ أو اﻟﻤﻨﻮال‬

‫ﻟﻠﺘﻮزﯾﻊ "ﻣﺜﻠﺜﻲ"‪.‬‬
‫ﺧﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﯾﺪ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻜﺒﺮى ﻟﻠﺘﻮزﯾﻊ‬ ‫أﻛﺒﺮ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ‪Maximum‬‬
‫"ﻣﺘﺴﺎوي" أو "ﻣﺜﻠﺜﻲ"‪.‬‬
‫ﺧﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﯾﺪ اﻹﻧﺤﺮاف اﻟﻤﻌﯿﺎري ﻟﻠﺘﻮزﯾﻊ‬ ‫اﻹﻧﺤﺮاف اﻟﻤﻌﯿﺎري ‪Std Dev‬‬
‫"طﺒﯿﻌﻲ"‪.‬‬
‫ﺧﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﯾﺪ "ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ" ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻗﯿﻤﺘﮫ ﺑﻌﺪ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ‪Expression‬‬
‫ﺗﻌﯿﻨﮭﺎ زﻣﻦ "ﺗﺄﺧﺮ" اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺔ‪.‬‬

‫ﯾﺤﺪد ﻓﯿﻤﺎ إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ‬ ‫أﻋﻄﻲ ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺮ إﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ ‪Report Statistics‬‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﺗﺠﻤﻊ ذاﺗﯿﺎ أو ﻻ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار اﻟﻤﻮارد ﻟﻮﺣﺪة اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺔ ‪Process Module – Resources Dialog‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪ إﺧﺘﯿﺎر ‪ Seize Delay Release‬ﯾﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻤﻮارد ﻟﻠﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
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‫وﯾﺠﺐ إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻧﻮع اﻟﻤﻮرد ﻓﺒﺎﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ …‪ Add‬ﺗﻈﮭﺮ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار اﻟﻤﻮارد‪:‬‬
‫ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻌﯿﻦ أو إﺧﺘﯿﺎر ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻦ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻧﻮع ‪Type‬‬
‫‪190‬‬
‫ﻣﻮارد ‪.Resource Set‬‬
‫إﺳﻢ اﻟﻤﻮرد اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب إﻣﺴﺎﻛﮫ و‪/‬أو ﺗﺮﻛﮫ‪.‬‬ ‫إﺳﻢ اﻟﻤﻮرد ‪Resource Name‬‬
‫وﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻓﻘﻂ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﻜﻮن اﻟﻨﻮع "ﻣﻮرد"‪.‬‬

‫إﺳﻢ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻮارد واﻟﺘﻲ ﻣﻨﮭﺎ ﺳﯿﺘﻢ إﻣﺴﺎك‬ ‫إﺳﻢ اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ‪Set Name‬‬
‫و‪/‬أو ﺗﺮك "ﻣﻮرد"‪ .‬ﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻓﻘﻂ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﻜﻮن‬

‫اﻟﻨﻮع "ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ" ‪.Set‬‬
‫ﻋﺪد اﻟﻤﻮارد ذات إﺳﻢ ﻣﺤﺪد أو ﻣﻦ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﻛﻤﯿﺔ ‪Quantity‬‬
‫ﻣﺤﺪدة واﻟﺘﻲ ﺳﯿﺘﻢ إﻣﺴﺎﻛﮭﺎ و‪/‬أو ﺗﺮﻛﮭﺎ‪.‬‬

‫وﻟﻠﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺎت‪ ،‬ھﺬه اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ ﺗﻌﯿﻦ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻤﻮارد‬
‫اﻟﻤﺨﺘﺎرة واﻟﺘﻲ ﺳﯿﺘﻢ إﻣﺴﺎﻛﮭﺎ و‪/‬أو ﺗﺮﻛﮭﺎ طﺒﻘﺎ‬
‫ﻟﺴﻌﺔ اﻟﻤﻮرد وﻟﯿﺲ ﻋﺪد اﻓﺮاد اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﺗﻤﺴﻚ‪/‬ﺗﺘﺮك‪.‬‬
‫طﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻹﺧﺘﯿﺎر ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﻮارد اﻟﻤﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﻋﺪة اﻹﺧﺘﯿﺎر ‪Selection Rule‬‬
‫ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ‪" .‬دوري" ‪ Cyclical‬وﯾﺘﻢ اﻹﺧﺘﯿﺎر‬

‫ﺑﺸﻜﻞ دوري ﺑﯿﻦ اﻷﻋﻀﺎء اﻟﻤﺘﺎﺣﯿﻦ‪.‬‬
‫"ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ" ‪ Random‬وﯾﺘﻢ اﻹﺧﺘﯿﺎر ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺎ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻷﻋﻀﺎء‪" .‬ﺗﺮﺗﯿﺐ اﻷﻓﻀﻞ"‬
‫‪ Preferred Order‬وﯾﺘﻢ إﺧﺘﯿﺎر اول ﻋﻀﻮ ﻣﺘﺎح‬
‫اﻷول ﺛﻢ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ وھﻜﺬا‪" .‬ﻋﻀﻮ ﻣﺤﺪد"‬
‫‪ Specific Member‬وھﺬا اﻹﺧﺘﯿﺎر ﯾﺤﺘﺎج إدﺧﺎل‬
‫"ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﺻﻔﺔ" ‪) Attribute Value‬واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻜﻮن ﻗﺪ‬
‫ﺧﺰﻧﺖ ﻓﻲ "ﻣﺠﺎل ﺧﺰن ﺻﻔﺔ" ‪Save‬‬
‫‪ ( Attribute Field‬ﻟﺘﺤﺪﯾﺪ أي ﻋﻀﻮ ﻣﻦ‬

‫اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻄﻠﻮب‪" .‬أﻛﺒﺮ ﺳﻌﺔ ﻣﺘﺒﻘﯿﺔ"‬
‫‪ Largest Remaining Capacity‬و "اﻗﻞ ﻋﺪد‬
‫ﻣﺸﻐﻮل"‪ Smallest Number Busy‬ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم‬
‫ﻟﻤﻮارد ذات ﺳﻌﺎت ﻣﺘﻌﺪدة وﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻓﻘﻂ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ‬
‫ﯾﻜﻮن اﻟﻨﻮع "ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ"‪.‬‬
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‫إﺳﻢ اﻟﺼﻔﺔ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﺤﻔﻆ رﻗﻢ اﻹﺳﻨﺎد ﻓﻲ‬ ‫ﺧﺰن ﺻﻔﺔ ‪Save Attribute‬‬
‫ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ اﻷﻋﻀﺎء اﻟﺘﻲ اﺧﺘﯿﺮت‪.‬ھﺬه اﻟﺼﻔﺔ‬

‫ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﺗﺴﺘﺪﻋﻰ ﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ ﻗﺎﻋﺪة اﻹﺧﺘﯿﺎر‬
‫"ﻋﻀﻮ ﻣﺤﺪد" ‪ .Specific Member‬ﻻﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﻜﻮن ﻗﺎﻋﺪة اﻹﺧﺘﯿﺎر "ﻋﻀﻮ ﻣﺤﺪد"‪ .‬إذا‬
‫ﻋﯿﻦ اﻟﻨﺸﺎط ﻋﻠﻰ اﻧﮫ "ﺗﺄﺧﯿﺮ ﺗﺮك" ﻓﺈن اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺤﺪدة ﺗﻌﯿﻦ أي ﻣﻦ اﻋﻀﺎء اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺳﯿﺘﻢ‬
‫ﺗﺮﻛﮫ‪ .‬وإذا ﻟﻢ ﺗﺤﺪد ﺻﻔﺔ ﻓﺈن اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ ﺳﻮف‬
‫ﯾﺘﺮك ﻋﻀﻮ اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ اﻟﺬي أﻣﺴﻚ ﻓﻲ اﻵﺧﺮ‪.‬‬
‫"رﻗﻢ اﻹﺳﻨﺎد" ‪ Index Number‬ﻓﻲ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ‬ ‫ﺳﻨﺪ اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ‪Set Index‬‬
‫اﻷﻋﻀﺎء اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﯿﻦ‪ .‬وﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻓﻘﻂ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﻜﻮن‬

‫ﻗﺎﻋﺪة اﻹﺧﺘﯿﺎر ھﻲ "ﻋﻀﻮ ﻣﺤﺪد"‪ .‬إذا ﺣﺪد‬
‫اﻟﻨﺸﺎط ﻋﻠﻰ اﻧﮫ "ﺗﺄﺧﯿﺮ ﺗﺮك" ﻓﺈن اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺤﺪدة ﺗﻌﺮف أي ﻋﻀﻮ )رﻗﻢ اﻹﺳﻨﺎد( ﻣﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ اﻟﺬي ﺳﯿﺘﻢ ﺗﺮﻛﮫ‪.‬‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﻘﺪم وﺣﺪﺗﯿﻦ ﻣﻦ وﺣﺪات اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ‪ Data Modules‬ھﻲ‪:‬‬

‫وﺣﺪة اﻟﻤﻮرد ‪Resource Module‬‬
‫وﻋﻨﺪ اﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ ﯾﻈﮭﺮ اﻟﺴﻄﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺻﻔﺤﺔ اﻟﻨﺸﺮ‬ ‫وﻟﮭﺎ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫وﯾﻌﺮف اﻟﻤﻮارد ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم وﺗﺸﻤﻞ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻋﻦ ﺗﻮﻓﺮ اﻟﻤﻮارد وﻧﻮع اﻟﺴﻌﺔ وﻣﻘﺪار اﻟﺴﻌﺔ وﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻮرد ﻋﻨﺪ إﺷﻐﺎﻟﮫ ﻟﻮﺣﺪة زﻣﻦ وﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻓﺮاﻏﺔ وﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻛﻞ إﺳﺘﺨﺪام وإﺳﻢ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ اﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ وﻓﺸﻞ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻮرد وإﻋﻄﺎء إﺣﺼﺎءات‪.‬‬
‫وﺣﺪة اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ‪Queue Module‬‬
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‫وﯾﻈﮭﺮ اﻟﺴﻄﺮ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫وﻟﮭﺎ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ووﺣﺪة اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻟﺘﻌﺮﯾﻒ اﻟﻄﻮاﺑﯿﺮ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم وﻟﺘﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﻧﻈﺎم اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر وإذا ﻣﺎﻛﺎن اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر‬
Service ‫ ﻻﺣﻆ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﯾﻮﺟﺪ طﺎﺑﻮرﯾﻦ‬.‫ﻣﺸﺘﺮك وھﻞ ﯾﺴﺠﻞ إﺣﺼﺎءات‬
.File.Queue ‫ و‬Station.Queue
SIMAN ‫ ﺑﻠﻐﺔ‬Process Module ‫وﺣﺪة ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺔ‬
VARIABLES: Process
1.NumberOut,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):
Process
1.WIP,CLEAR(System),CATEGORY("Exclude-Exclude"):
Process
1.NumberIn,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude");
; Model statements for module: Process 1
;
0$ ASSIGN: Process 1.NumberIn=Process
1.NumberIn + 1:
Process 1.WIP=Process
1.WIP+1;
2$ DELAY: Triangular(.5,1,1.5),,VA;
49$ ASSIGN: Process 1.NumberOut=Process
1.NumberOut + 1:
193
Process 1.WIP=Process 1.WIP-
1;
194
‫ﻧﻄﻮر اﻟﻤﺜﺎل اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ وذﻟﻚ ﺑﻮﺻﻮل زﺑﺎﺋﻦ إﻟﻰ ﻧﻈﺎم وﯾﻠﺘﺤﻘﻮ ﺑﻄﺎﺑﻮر وﺗﺠﺮى ﻟﮭﻢ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ ﻣﻌﯿﻨﺔ ﺛﻢ‬
‫ﯾﻨﺼﺮﻓﻮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‬
‫ﻗﻤﻨﺎ ﺑﺘﻌﺪﯾﻞ ﺧﻮاص ‪ Create‬ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺧﻮاص ‪Process‬‬
‫إﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺔ ‪ Customers Service‬ﻧﻮﻋﮭﺎ ‪ Standard‬اﻹﺟﺮاء ‪" Action‬إﻣﺴﺎك ‪ -‬ﺗﺄﺧﯿﺮ ‪ -‬ﺗﺮك"‬

‫‪ Seize Delay Release‬اﻷﻓﻀﻠﯿﺔ ‪ Priority‬ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻄﺔ أو ‪ Medium(2) 2‬اﻟﻤﻮارد ‪: Resources‬‬
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‫اﻟﻨﻮع "ﻣﻮرد" إﺳﻢ اﻟﻤﻮرد ‪ Resource Name‬ھﻨﺎ ﺧﺎدم ‪ Server‬ﻛﻤﯿﺘﮭﺎ ‪ Quantity‬ھﻨﺎ ‪ .1‬وﺑﺎﻟﻌﻮدة‬
‫ﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة ﺧﻮاص اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺔ أﺧﺘﺮﻧﺎ ﻧﻮع اﻟﺘﺄﺧﯿﺮ ‪ Delay Type‬ﻣﻮزع طﺒﯿﻌﯿﺎ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 5‬وإﻧﺤﺮاف‬
‫ﻣﻌﯿﺎري ‪ 1‬اﻟﻮﺣﺪات اﻟﺰﻣﻨﯿﺔ دﻗﺎﺋﻖ واﻟﺘﺨﺼﯿﺺ "ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﻀﺎﻓﺔ"‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﺴﺘﻄﯿﻊ أن ﻧﺸﺎھﺪ ﻧﻔﺲ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺨﻮاص ﻟﺼﻔﺤﺔ اﻟﻨﺸﺮ‬
‫ﻧﻨﻈﺮ إﻟﻰ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺑﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻄﻮاﺑﯿﺮ واﻟﺘﻲ ﻧﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ إﺳﻢ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ‪ Customer Service Queue‬اﺿﯿﻒ ذاﺗﯿﺎ ﻧﻮع اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ‪" Type‬ﻣﻦ ﯾﺪﺧﻞ أوﻻ‬
‫ﯾﺨﺮج أوﻻ" ‪ First In First Out‬أو ‪ FIFO‬ﺑﻘﯿﺔ اﻟﻘﯿﻢ ﺗﺮﻛﺖ ﺑﻘﯿﻤﮭﺎ اﻹﻓﺘﺮاﺿﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﻨﻈﺮ إﻟﻰ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺑﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻤﻮارد واﻟﺘﻲ ﻧﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫‪196‬‬
‫ﻛﺎﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻗﺴﻤﻨﺎ ﺟﺰﺋﯿﻦ ﻟﺘﻮﺿﯿﺢ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ ھﻮ ﻣﻮﺿﺢ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ إﺳﻢ ‪ Name‬اﻟﻤﻮرد ‪Server‬‬
‫ﻧﻮﻋﮫ ‪" Type‬ﺳﻌﺔ ﺛﺎﺑﺘﺔ" ‪ Fixed Capacity‬وﺳﻌﺘﮫ ‪ 1 Capacity‬ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﺎﻋﺔ ‪Busy/Hour‬‬
‫‪ 0.0‬ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ ﻓﺮاﻏﮫ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﺎﻋﺔ ‪ 0.0 Idle/Hour‬ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺘﮫ ﻟﻺﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻮاﺣﺪ ‪ 0.0 Per Use‬وﺑﻘﯿﺔ اﻟﻘﯿﻢ‬
‫إﻓﺘﺮاﺿﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻗﺒﻞ إﺟﺮاء اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﻧﻀﯿﻒ ﺷﯿﺊ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺮﺳﻮم اﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻛﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﻟﻜﻲ ﻧﻈﮭﺮ ﺻﻮر اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ وھﻢ ﯾﻤﺮو ﺑﺎﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻧﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ أﯾﻘﻮﻧﺔ ‪ Entity‬ﻓﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺎت‬
‫اﻷﺳﺎﺳﯿﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻋﻤﻮد اﻟﻤﺸﺮوع ﻓﯿﻈﮭﺮ‬
‫)ﺟﺰﺋﻨﺎھﺎ ﻟﻺﯾﻀﺎح( ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻺﺳﻘﺎط ﺗﺤﺖ ‪ Initial Picture‬ﻧﺨﺘﺎر ﺻﻮرة رﺟﻞ ‪. Picture Man‬‬
‫واﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ إﺿﺎﻓﺔ رﺳﻮم ﻣﺘﺤﺮﻛﺔ ﺗﻤﺜﻞ اﻟﺨﺎدم وذﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ أﯾﻘﻮﻧﺔ ‪Resource‬‬
‫ﯾﻤﻜﻦ إﯾﺠﺎدھﺎ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ اﻟﺮﺋﯿﺴﺔ ﺑﺈﺧﺘﯿﺎر ‪ View‬ﺛﻢ ‪ Toolbars...‬ﻓﺘﻈﮭﺮ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة إﺧﺘﯿﺎر اﻟﻘﻮاﺋﻢ أﺧﺘﺎر‬
‫‪ Animate‬إن ﻟﻢ ﺗﻜﻦ ﻣﺨﺘﺎرة ﻓﺘﻈﮭﺮ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ أدوات اﻟﺮﺳﻮم اﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻛﺔ‬
‫ﺗﻈﮭﺮ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة رﺳﻮم اﻟﻤﻮارد‬ ‫ﻋﻨﺪ اﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ أﯾﻘﻮﻧﺔ ‪Resource‬‬
‫‪197‬‬
‫أي وﺿﻊ اﻟﻔﺮاغ ﻟﻠﺨﺎدم ﺛﻢ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺮﺳﻮم ﻧﺨﺘﺎر اﻟﺮﺳﻢ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻣﺜﻼ‬ ‫ﻧﺨﺘﺎر‬
‫ﻓﯿﺼﺒﺢ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ‬ ‫وﻧﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ أﻧﻨﺎ أﺧﺘﺮﻧﺎ ﻣﻦ ‪ Identifier‬اﻟﻤﻮرد ‪ Server‬وﻣﻦ ‪ State‬اﻟﻮﺿﻊ ‪ Idle‬وھﺬا ﺳﯿﻤﺜﻞ اﻟﺨﺎدم ﻓﻲ‬
‫وﺿﻊ اﻟﻔﺮاغ‪ .‬ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺜﻞ ﻟﻮﺿﻊ ﻣﺸﻐﻮل ‪ Busy‬ﻧﻘﻮم ﺑﺈﺧﺘﯿﺎر اﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻓﯿﺼﺒﺢ‬
‫‪198‬‬
‫ﻧﺘﺮك اﻟﻮﺿﻌﯿﻦ اﻵﺧﺮﯾﻦ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻮﺿﻊ اﻹﻓﺘﺮاﺿﻲ ‪ Default‬ﻷﻧﻨﺎ ﻟﻦ ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﮭﻢ ھﻨﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﺨﺘﺎر ‪ Auto Scale‬و ‪ Seize Area‬ﺛﻢ ‪ OK‬ﺗﺨﺘﻔﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة رﺳﻮم اﻟﻤﻮارد وﯾﺼﺒﺢ ﺷﻜﻞ اﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ ‪+‬‬
‫أﺿﻐﻂ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﻜﺎن اﻟﻤﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻓﺘﻈﮭﺮ ﺻﻮرة اﻟﺨﺎدم ﺷﻜﻞ ﺣﺠﻤﮭﺎ ﻛﯿﻔﻤﺎ ﺗﺸﺎء ﻓﯿﺼﺒﺢ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ‬
‫ﺗﺠﮭﯿﺰ اﻹﺟﺮاء‪:‬‬
‫‪199‬‬
‫ﻧﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﺑﺎﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ F4‬ﻓﻨﺠﺪ أﻧﮫ ﻻﯾﻮﺟﺪ أﺧﻄﺎء أو ﺗﺤﺬﯾﺮات ﺛﻢ ﻧﺠﺮي اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪F5‬‬
‫‪200‬‬
‫اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ‪:‬‬
‫ﺗﻤﺮﯾﻦ‪ :‬ﺗﺼﻔﺢ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ وأﺳﺘﺨﺮج اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‪.‬‬

‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﻀﯿﻒ ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﺘﺤﺴﯿﻨﺎت ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮذج وذﻟﻚ ﺑﺈﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺳﺎﻋﺔ ﻟﺘﺒﯿﻦ زﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة وﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﺗﻘﻮﯾﻢ‬
‫ﻹﻋﻄﺎء اﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺦ وﻋﺪدات ﻟﻌﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﻤﻐﺎدرﯾﻦ واﻟﻘﺎدﻣﯿﻦ رﺳﻢ اﻟﻤﺪرج اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري ﻟﻌﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻠﺬﯾﻦ أﻛﻤﻠﻮ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ورﺳﻢ ﻟﻌﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﺪاﺧﻠﯿﻦ‪ .‬ﻣﻦ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ اﻟﺮﺳﻮم اﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻛﺔ‬
‫‪201‬‬
‫ﺗﻈﮭﺮ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار اﻟﺘﻘﻮﯾﻢ‬ ‫ﺗﻈﮭﺮ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار اﻟﺴﺎﻋﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺗﻈﮭﺮ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫وﻣﻨﮭﺎ ﻧﺨﺘﺎر اﻟﺘﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻹﺳﻘﺎط‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ اﻟﺮﺳﻮم‬ ‫ﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻧﺼﻮص ﻣﻔﺴﺮة ﻧﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻓﺘﻈﮭﺮ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة إدﺧﺎل اﻟﻨﺼﻮص‬
‫‪202‬‬
‫ﺑﻌﺪ ﻛﺘﺎﺑﺔ اﻟﻨﺺ اﻟﻤﺮاد ﻧﻀﻐﻂ ‪ OK‬ﻓﯿﺼﺒﺢ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ اﻟﻔﺎرة ‪ +‬وﻧﻀﻐﻂ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻔﺮاغ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻓﯿﻈﮭﺮ‬
‫ﻧﺪﺧﻞ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ وﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻟﻠﺮﺳﻢ ﻧﻀﻐﻂ‬ ‫اﻟﻨﺺ‪ .‬ﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﻤﺪرج اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري ﻧﻀﻐﻂ‬
‫ﻧﺪﺧﻞ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ‬

‫اﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﯾﺒﯿﻦ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﺑﻌﺪ إدﺧﺎل ھﺬه اﻟﺘﺤﺴﯿﻨﺎت‪.‬‬
‫‪203‬‬
PROJECT, "Unnamed
Project","amb",,,No,Yes,Yes,Yes,No,No,No;
VARIABLES: Service
Station.WIP,CLEAR(System),CATEGORY("Exclude-Exclude"):
Service
Station.NumberIn,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):
Service
Station.NumberOut,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):
Customers
Finish
Service.NumberOut,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude");
QUEUES: Service
Station.Queue,FIFO,Shared,AUTOSTATS(Yes,,);
Picture.Green Ball:
Picture.Blue Page:
Picture.Telephone:
Picture.Blue Ball:
Picture.EMail:
Picture.Bike:
Picture.Report:
Picture.Van:
Picture.Widgets:
Picture.Envelope:
Picture.Fax:
Picture.Truck:
204
Picture.Letter:
Picture.Box:
Picture.Woman:
Picture.Package:
Picture.Man:
Picture.Diskette:
Picture.Boat:
Picture.Red Page:
Picture.Green Page:
Picture.Red Ball;
RESOURCES:
Server,Capacity(1),,,COST(0.0,0.0,0.0),CATEGORY(Resources
),,AUTOSTATS(Yes,,);
REPLICATE,
10,,MinutesToBaseTime(480),Yes,Yes,,,,24,Hours,No,No;
ENTITIES:
s,,);
;
;
2$ CREATE,
1,MinutesToBaseTime(0.0),Customer:
MinutesToBaseTime(DISC(0.125,1,0.25,2,0.375,3,0.5,4,0.625
,5,0.75,6,0.875,7,1.0,8)):NEXT(3$);
205
;
;
;
0$ ASSIGN: Service
Station.NumberIn=Service Station.NumberIn + 1:
Service Station.WIP=Service
Station.WIP+1;
9$ QUEUE, Service Station.Queue;
8$ SEIZE, 2,VA:
Server,1:NEXT(7$);
7$ DELAY: MinutesToBaseTime(DISC(
0.1,1,0.3,2,0.6,3,0.85,4,0.95,5,1.0,6 )),,VA;
6$ RELEASE: Server,1;
54$ ASSIGN: Service
Station.NumberOut=Service Station.NumberOut + 1:
Service Station.WIP=Service
Station.WIP-1:NEXT(1$);
;
;
;
1$ ASSIGN: Finish
Service.NumberOut=Finish Service.NumberOut + 1;
57$ DISPOSE: Yes;
:3 ‫ﻣﺜﺎل‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﻄﻮر اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺑﺤﯿﺚ ﯾﻜﻮن ﻓﻲ اﻹﻣﻜﺎن إﺗﺨﺎذ ﻗﺮار ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺮور اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‬
:‫ ﯾﻘﻮم ﺑﮭﺬا وﺣﺪة اﻟﻘﺮار اﻟﺘﻲ ﻟﮭﺎ اﻟﺘﺮﻛﯿﺐ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬.‫ﺗﺒﻌﺎ ﻟﺼﺪﻓﺔ أو ﻧﺴﺒﺔ أو إﺣﺘﻤﺎل وﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﺮط‬
206
‫وﺣﺪة اﻟﻘﺮار ‪Decide Module‬‬
‫( واﻵﺧﺮ ﻟﻠﻘﺮار‬ ‫( وﻣﺨﺮﺟﯿﻦ أﺣﺪھﻤﺎ ﻟﻠﻘﺮار اﻟﺼﺢ )‬ ‫وﻟﮭﺬة اﻟﻮﺣﺪة ﻣﺪﺧﻞ واﺣﺪ )‬
‫( ﻻﺣﻆ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻘﺮارات ﻋﻨﺪ ﻛﻞ ﻓﺮع ﺣﺎﻟﯿﺎ ﻣﺴﺎوﯾﺎ ﻟﻠﺼﻔﺮ‪.‬‬ ‫اﻟﺨﻄﺄ )‬

‫ھﺬه اﻟﻮﺣﺪة ﺗﻤﻜﻦ ﻣﻦ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺎت أﺧﺬ ﻗﺮار ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪ .‬وﺗﺸﻤﻞ ﻋﺪة ﺧﯿﺎرات ﻷﺧﺬ ﻗﺮار إﻋﺘﻤﺎدا ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺷﺮط أو أﻛﺜﺮ )ﻣﺜﻞ‪ :‬إذا ﻛﺎن ﻧﻮع اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ ﺑﻄﺎﻗﺔ ذھﺒﯿﺔ( أو ﻋﻠﻰ إﺣﺘﻤﺎل أو أﻛﺜﺮ )ﻣﺜﻞ‪ 75% :‬ﺻﺢ‬
‫‪ 25% ،‬ﺧﻄﺄ(‪ .‬وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ اﻟﺸﺮوط ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﯿﻢ ﺻﻔﺎت )ﻣﺜﻞ‪ :‬اﻷوﻟﯿﺔ( أو ﻗﯿﻢ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ )ﻣﺜﻞ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﻌﺪد اﻟﻤﺮﻓﻮض( أو ﻧﻮع اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ أو اﻟﺘﻌﺒﯿﺮ‪.‬‬
‫ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﻣﺨﺮﺟﯿﻦ ﻣﻦ وﺣﺪة اﻟﻘﺮار ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﻜﻮن ﻧﻮﻋﮭﺎ اﻟﻤﺤﺪد‪ ،‬إﻣﺎ طﺮﯾﻘﯿﻦ إﺣﺘﻤﺎل او طﺮﯾﻘﯿﻦ‬
‫ﺷﺮط‪ ،‬وﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﻣﺨﺮج واﺣﺪ ﻟﻠﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺤﻘﻖ "ﺻﺢ ‪ "True‬وواﺣﺪ ﻟﻠﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺤﻘﻖ "ﺧﻄﺄ‬
‫‪ ."False‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﺤﺪد ﻋﺪة طﺮق إﺣﺘﻤﺎل ‪ N-way Chance‬أو ﺷﺮوط ﻓﺴﯿﻜﻮن ھﻨﺎك ﻋﺪة ﻣﺨﺎرج‬
‫ﻟﻜﻞ إﺣﺘﻤﺎل أو ﺷﺮط وﻣﺨﺮج واﺣﺪ ﻟﻐﯿﺮ ذﻟﻚ ‪ .Else‬ﻋﺪد اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺨﺮج ﻣﻦ ﻛﻞ ﻧﻮع‬
‫)ﺻﺢ‪/‬ﺧﻄﺄ( ﺗﻈﮭﺮ ﻟﻠﻄﺮﯾﻘﯿﻦ ﻓﻘﻂ‪.‬‬
‫إﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﺎت وﺣﺪة اﻟﻘﺮار اﻟﻤﻌﺘﺎدة‪:‬‬
‫‪ -‬إرﺳﺎل ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﻏﯿﺮ ﺻﺎﻟﺤﺔ ﻹﻋﺎدة اﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬إرﺳﺎل اﻟﺸﯿﻜﺎت اﻟﻤﻘﺒﻮﻟﺔ ﻟﺠﮭﺔ واﻟﻐﯿﺮ ﻣﻘﺒﻮﻟﺔ ﻟﺠﮭﺔ اﺧﺮى‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬إرﺳﺎل زﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﻟﮭﻢ أﻓﻀﻠﯿﺔ إﻟﻰ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪207‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار ﻧﻮع‬

‫ﻣﻊ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺤﻮار ﻧﻮع‬
‫‪208‬‬
‫وﺗﺒﯿﻦ ﻓﯿﻤﺎ إذا ﻛﺎن اﻟﻘﺮار ﯾﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ "ﺷﺮط"‬ ‫ﻧﻮع ‪Type‬‬
‫)ﻣﺜﻞ‪ (IF X>Y :‬أو ﻋﻠﻰ "إﺣﺘﻤﺎل" أو "ﻧﺴﺒﺔ"‬

‫)ﻣﺜﻞ‪ (60%, yes; 40%, no:‬وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ‬
‫اﻟﻨﻮع ﻛﻄﺮﯾﻘﯿﻦ أو ﻋﺪة طﺮق‪" .‬طﺮﯾﻘﯿﻦ" ﯾﺴﻤﺢ‬
‫ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﺷﺮط واﺣﺪ أو إﺣﺘﻤﺎل )ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻟﻤﺨﺮج‬
‫‪" (False‬ﻋﺪة طﺮق" ﯾﺴﻤﺢ ﻟﺘﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﻋﺪة ﺷﺮوط‬
‫أو إﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻت ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻟﻤﺨﺮج ‪.Else‬‬
‫ﺗﻌﺮف ﺷﺮط أو اﻛﺜﺮ ﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻟﺘﻮﺟﯿﮫ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت‬ ‫ﺷﺮوط ‪Conditions‬‬
‫إﻟﻰ وﺣﺪات ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪ .‬وﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻓﻘﻂ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﻜﻮن‬

‫اﻟﻨﻮع "ﻋﺪة طﺮق ﺑﺎﻟﺸﺮط"‪.‬‬
‫وﺗﺤﺪد ﻧﺴﺒﺔ أو أﻛﺜﺮ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻟﺘﻮﺟﯿﮫ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت‬ ‫ﻧﺴﺐ ﻣﺌﻮﯾﺔ ‪Percentages‬‬
‫إﻟﻰ وﺣﺪات ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪ .‬وﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻓﻘﻂ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﻜﻮن‬

‫اﻟﻨﻮع "ﻋﺪة طﺮق ﺑﺈﺣﺘﻤﺎل"‪.‬‬
‫وﺗﺤﺪد ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻟﺘﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺨﺮج‬ ‫ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺻﺢ ‪Percent True‬‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﻣﺨﺮج "ﺻﺢ" ﻣﻌﻄﻰ‪.‬‬

‫أﻧﻮاع اﻟﺸﺮوط اﻟﻤﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻘﯿﯿﻢ‪.‬‬ ‫إذا ‪IF‬‬
‫ﺗﺤﺪد إﻣﺎ "إﺳﻢ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ" أو "ﺻﻔﺔ" أو "ﻧﻮع‬ ‫ﻣﺴﻤﻰ ‪Named‬‬
‫ﻛﺎﺋﻦ" واﻟﺬي ﺳﯿﻘﺪر ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﺪﺧﻞ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﻮﺣﺪة‪.‬‬

‫وﻻﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻋﻨﻤﺎ ﯾﻜﻮن اﻟﻨﻮع "ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ"‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻘﺪر ﻟﻠﺸﺮط‪ .‬وﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻓﻘﻂ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﻜﻮن "ﺷﺮط‬ ‫ھﻞ ‪IS‬‬
‫ﺻﻔﺔ" أو "ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ"‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ واﻟﺬي ﻗﺪ ﯾﻘﺎرن ﺑﺼﻔﺔ أو ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ أو اﻟﺬي‬ ‫ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ‪Value‬‬
‫ﺳﯿﻘﺪر ﻛﺘﻌﺒﯿﺮ واﺣﺪ ﻟﺘﺤﺪﯾﺪ إذا ﻛﺎن "ﺻﺢ" أو‬

‫"ﺧﻄﺄ"‪ .‬ﻻﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻟﻨﻮع "ﻛﺎﺋﻦ ﺷﺮطﻲ"‪ .‬إذا‬
‫ﻛﺎن اﻟﻨﻮع "ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ" ﻓﺈن ھﺬه اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ ﻻﺑﺪ ان‬
‫ﺗﺸﻤﻞ اﻟﻤﻘﺪر )ﻣﺜﻞ‪.(Color<>Red :‬‬
‫‪209‬‬
‫وﺣﺪة ﻗﺮار ‪ Decide Module‬ﺑﻠﻐﺔ ‪SIMAN‬‬
‫‪VARIABLES:‬‬ ‫‪Decide 1.NumberOut‬‬

‫‪True,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):‬‬
‫‪Decide 1.NumberOut‬‬
‫;)"‪False,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude‬‬
‫;‬ ‫‪Model statements for module:‬‬ ‫‪Decide 1‬‬
‫;‬
‫‪0$‬‬ ‫‪BRANCH,‬‬ ‫‪1:‬‬
‫‪With,50/100,1$,Yes:‬‬
‫;‪Else,2$,Yes‬‬
‫‪1$‬‬ ‫‪ASSIGN:‬‬ ‫‪Decide 1.NumberOut‬‬
‫;‪True=Decide 1.NumberOut True + 1‬‬
‫‪2$‬‬ ‫‪ASSIGN:‬‬ ‫‪Decide 1.NumberOut‬‬
‫;‪False=Decide 1.NumberOut False + 1‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻤﺜﺎل ﺳﻮف ﻧﺤﺎﻛﻲ ﻣﺤﻞ ﻟﻠﺤﻼﻗﺔ ﯾﻌﻤﻞ ﻓﯿﮫ ﺣﻼﻗﯿﻦ أﺣﺪھﻢ ﯾﻘﻮم ﺑﻘﺺ اﻟﺸﻌﺮ ﻓﻘﻂ واﻵﺧﺮ‬
‫ﯾﻐﺴﻞ اﻟﺸﻌﺮ وﯾﻘﺼﮫ‪ .‬ﯾﺼﻞ اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ إﻟﻰ اﻟﻤﺤﻞ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﺑﺤﯿﺚ أن زﻣﻦ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل ﻟﮫ‬
‫ﺗﻮزﯾﮫ اﺳﻲ ﺑﻤﻌﺪل ‪ 4‬زﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺪﻗﯿﻘﺔ‪ 25% .‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﯾﺮﯾﺪو ﻗﺺ ﺷﻌﺮ ﻓﻘﻂ‪ .‬اﻟﺤﻼق اﻟﺬي‬
‫ﯾﻘﺺ اﻟﺸﻌﺮ ﯾﻘﻮم ﺑﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﻲ زﻣﻦ ﯾﻜﻮن ﻟﮫ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ طﺒﯿﻌﻲ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 3‬دﻗﺎﺋﻖ وإﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﯿﺎري ‪1‬‬
‫دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‪ .‬ﺣﻼق اﻟﻐﺴﻞ واﻟﻘﺺ ﯾﻘﻮم ﺑﺬﻟﻚ ﺑﺰﻣﻦ طﺒﯿﻌﻲ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 5‬دﻗﺎﺋﻖ وإﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﯿﺎري ‪ 2‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ھﺬا اﻟﻨﻈﺎم وﻗﯿﺎس أداؤه‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‪:‬‬
‫‪210‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺧﻮاص ‪ Create‬ﻓﻲ طﻮر ﻣﺨﻄﻂ اﻹﻧﺴﯿﺎب‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺧﻮاص ‪ Create‬ﻓﻲ طﻮر ﺻﻔﺤﺔ اﻟﻨﺸﺮ‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺧﻮاص ‪ Decide‬ﻓﻲ طﻮر ﻣﺨﻄﻂ اﻹﻧﺴﯿﺎب‬
‫‪211‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺧﻮاص ‪ Decide‬ﻓﻲ طﻮر ﺻﻔﺤﺔ اﻟﻨﺸﺮ‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺧﻮاص ‪ Process‬ﻟﺤﻼﻗﺔ اﻟﺸﻌﺮ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺑﻄﻮر ﻣﺨﻄﻂ اﻹﻧﺴﯿﺎب‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار اﻟﻤﻮرد ﻟﺤﻼق اﻟﺸﻌﺮ ﻓﻘﻂ‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺧﻮاص ‪ Process‬ﻟﺤﻼﻗﺔ اﻟﺸﻌﺮ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺑﻄﻮر ﺻﻔﺤﺔ اﻟﻨﺸﺮ‬
‫‪212‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار ‪ Process‬ﻟﻐﺴﻞ وﺣﻼﻗﺔ اﻟﺸﻌﺮ طﻮر ﻣﺨﻄﻂ اﻹﻧﺴﯿﺎب‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار اﻟﻤﻮرد ﻟﻐﺴﻞ وﺣﻼﻗﺔ اﻟﺸﻌﺮ طﻮر ﻣﺨﻄﻂ اﻹﻧﺴﯿﺎب‬
‫‪213‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮارﺧﻮاص ‪ Process‬ﻟﺤﻼﻗﺔ اﻟﺸﻌﺮ وﻟﻐﺴﯿﻞ وﺣﻼﻗﺔ اﻟﺸﻌﺮ ﺑﻄﻮر ﺻﻔﺤﺔ اﻟﻨﺸﺮ‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻄﻮر ﻧﺴﺘﻄﯿﻊ ﺗﺤﺮﯾﺮ اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺘﯿﻦ ﻣﻌﺎ‪.‬‬
‫وأﺧﯿﺮا ﻧﻮاﻓﺬ ﺣﻮار ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ‪Dispose‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة وﺣﺪة اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﻟﻠﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار وﺣﺪة اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﻟﻠﻄﻮاﺑﯿﺮ‬
‫‪214‬‬
‫وﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار وﺣﺪة اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﻟﻠﻤﻮارد‬
‫ﻧﻀﯿﻒ ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﺮﺳﻮﻣﺎت‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ اﻟﺮﺳﻮم اﻟﻤﺘﺤﺮﻛﺔ‬ ‫ﻻﺣﻆ ھﻨﺎ أﺿﻔﻨﺎ ﺷﺎﻗﻮل اﻓﻘﻲ ‪) Level‬ﻣﯿﺰان ﻟﻘﯿﺎس اﻹﻣﺘﻼء(‬
‫ﻟﯿﺒﯿﻦ ﻣﻘﺪار إﻣﺘﻼء وﺷﻐﻮل‬

‫اﻟﻤﻮرد‪.‬‬
‫وأﺧﯿﺮا ﻗﺒﻞ إﺟﺮاء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻧﺠﮭﺰ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‬
‫‪215‬‬
‫ﻧﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﺑﺎﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ F4‬ﺛﻢ ﻧﺠﺮي اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﺎﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪.F5‬‬
‫‪216‬‬
.‫ ﺻﻔﺤﺔ واﻟﺼﻔﺤﺔ اﻟﻤﺒﯿﻨﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﺗﻌﻄﻲ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﺤﻼﻗﺎن‬14 ‫اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ ﯾﺘﻜﻮن ﻣﻦ‬
.‫ ﺗﺼﻔﺢ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ واﺳﺘﺨﺮج ﻣﻘﺎﯾﯿﺲ اﻷداء اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ‬:‫ﺗﻤﺮﯾﻦ‬
PROJECT, "Barber Shop","Dr. A.
Barry",,,No,Yes,Yes,Yes,No,No,Yes;
VARIABLES: Hair Cut Only?.NumberOut

False,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):
Hair
Cut.WIP,CLEAR(System),CATEGORY("Exclude-Exclude"):
217
Customers
Hair
Cut.NVATime,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):
Hair
Cut.NumberIn,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):
Hair Cut and
Shampoo.VATime,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):
Hair
Cut.WaitTime,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):
Hair Cut and
Shampoo.NumberIn,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):
Customer
Finish.NumberOut,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):
Hair Cut and
Shampoo.NumberOut,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):
Hair Cut and
Shampoo.WIP,CLEAR(System),CATEGORY("Exclude-Exclude"):
Hair
Cut.NumberOut,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):
Hair Cut and
Shampoo.WaitTime,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):
Hair Cut Only?.NumberOut
True,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude");
QUEUES: Hair Cut and

Shampoo.Queue,FIFO,,AUTOSTATS(Yes,,):
Hair Cut.Queue,FIFO,,AUTOSTATS(Yes,,);
Picture.Green Ball:
Picture.Blue Page:
Picture.Telephone:
Picture.Blue Ball:
218
Picture.EMail:
Picture.Bike:
Picture.Report:
Picture.Van:
Picture.Widgets:
Picture.Envelope:
Picture.Fax:
Picture.Truck:
Picture.Letter:
Picture.Box:
Picture.Woman:
Picture.Package:
Picture.Man:
Picture.Diskette:
Picture.Boat:
Picture.Red Page:
Picture.Green Page:
Picture.Red Ball;
RESOURCES:
Shampoo,Capacity(1),,,COST(0.0,0.0,0.0),CATEGORY(Resource
s),,AUTOSTATS(Yes,,):
Hair Cut
Server,Capacity(1),,,COST(0.0,0.0,0.0),CATEGORY(Resources
TALLIES: Hair
Cut.TotalTimePerEntity,,DATABASE(,"Total
Time","Process","Hair Cut"):
Hair Cut and
Shampoo.VATimePerEntity,,DATABASE(,"VA
Time","Process","Hair Cut and Shampoo"):
219
Hair Cut.NVATimePerEntity,,DATABASE(,"NVA
Hair Cut.WaitTimePerEntity,,DATABASE(,"Wait
Hair Cut and
Shampoo.WaitTimePerEntity,,DATABASE(,"Wait
Time","Process","Hair Cut and Shampoo"):
Hair Cut and
Shampoo.TotalTimePerEntity,,DATABASE(,"Total
Time","Process","Hair Cut and Shampoo");
OUTPUTS: Hair Cut.NVATime,,Hair Cut Accum NVA

Time,DATABASE(,"Accum NVA Time","Process","Hair Cut"):
Hair Cut.NumberIn,,Hair Cut Number
In,DATABASE(,"Number In","Process","Hair Cut"):
Hair Cut and Shampoo.VATime,,Hair Cut and
Shampoo Accum VA Time,DATABASE(,"Accum VA
Time","Process",
"Hair Cut and Shampoo"):
Hair Cut.WaitTime,,Hair Cut Accum Wait
Time,DATABASE(,"Accum Wait Time","Process","Hair Cut"):
Hair Cut and Shampoo.NumberIn,,Hair Cut and
Shampoo Number In,DATABASE(,"Number In","Process",
Hair Cut and Shampoo.NumberOut,,Hair Cut
and Shampoo Number Out,DATABASE(,"Number Out","Process",
Hair Cut.NumberOut,,Hair Cut Number
Out,DATABASE(,"Number Out","Process","Hair Cut"):
Hair Cut and Shampoo.WaitTime,,Hair Cut and
Shampoo Accum Wait Time,DATABASE(,"Accum Wait
Time","Process",
"Hair Cut and Shampoo");
220
REPLICATE,
ENTITIES:
s,,);
;
;
;
4$ CREATE,
1,MinutesToBaseTime(0.0),Customer:MinutesToBaseTime(EXPO(
4)):NEXT(5$);
;
;
; Model statements for module: Decide 1
;
0$ BRANCH, 1:
With,25/100,8$,Yes:
Else,9$,Yes;
8$ ASSIGN: Hair Cut Only?.NumberOut
True=Hair Cut Only?.NumberOut True + 1:NEXT(1$);
9$ ASSIGN: Hair Cut Only?.NumberOut

False=Hair Cut Only?.NumberOut False + 1:NEXT(2$);
221
;
;
;
1$ ASSIGN: Hair Cut.NumberIn=Hair
Cut.NumberIn + 1:
Hair Cut.WIP=Hair Cut.WIP+1;
39$ STACK, 1:Save:NEXT(13$);
13$ QUEUE, Hair Cut.Queue;

12$ SEIZE, 2,NVA:
Hair Cut Server,1:NEXT(11$);
11$ DELAY:
MinutesToBaseTime(Normal(3,1)),,NVA:NEXT(54$);
54$ ASSIGN: Hair Cut.WaitTime=Hair

Cut.WaitTime + Diff.WaitTime;
18$ TALLY: Hair
Cut.WaitTimePerEntity,Diff.WaitTime,1;
20$ TALLY: Hair
Cut.TotalTimePerEntity,Diff.StartTime,1;
44$ ASSIGN: Hair Cut.NVATime=Hair
Cut.NVATime + Diff.NVATime;
45$ TALLY: Hair
Cut.NVATimePerEntity,Diff.NVATime,1;
10$ RELEASE: Hair Cut Server,1;
59$ STACK, 1:Destroy:NEXT(58$);
58$ ASSIGN: Hair Cut.NumberOut=Hair

Cut.NumberOut + 1:
Hair Cut.WIP=Hair Cut.WIP-
1:NEXT(3$);
222
;
;
;
3$ ASSIGN: Customer
Finish.NumberOut=Customer Finish.NumberOut + 1;
61$ DISPOSE: Yes;
;
;
;
2$ ASSIGN: Hair Cut and
Shampoo.NumberIn=Hair Cut and Shampoo.NumberIn + 1:
Hair Cut and
Shampoo.WIP=Hair Cut and Shampoo.WIP+1;
91$ STACK, 1:Save:NEXT(65$);
65$ QUEUE, Hair Cut and Shampoo.Queue;

64$ SEIZE, 2,VA:
Shampoo,1:NEXT(63$);
63$ DELAY:
MinutesToBaseTime(Normal(5,2)),,VA:NEXT(106$);

Shampoo.WaitTime=Hair Cut and Shampoo.WaitTime +
Diff.WaitTime;
70$ TALLY: Hair Cut and
Shampoo.WaitTimePerEntity,Diff.WaitTime,1;
223
Shampoo.TotalTimePerEntity,Diff.StartTime,1;
Shampoo.VATime=Hair Cut and Shampoo.VATime + Diff.VATime;
Shampoo.VATimePerEntity,Diff.VATime,1;
62$ RELEASE: Shampoo,1;
111$ STACK, 1:Destroy:NEXT(110$);

Shampoo.NumberOut=Hair Cut and Shampoo.NumberOut + 1:
Hair Cut and
Shampoo.WIP=Hair Cut and Shampoo.WIP-1:NEXT(3$);
224
‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪:4‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻤﺜﺎل ﺳﻮف ﻧﺴﺘﻌﺮض وﺣﺪة أﺳﻨﺪ ‪ Assign Module‬واﻟﺘﻲ ﻟﮭﺎ اﻟﺘﺮﻛﯿﺐ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫وﺣﺪة أﺳﻨﺪ ‪Assign Module‬‬
‫وﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ھﺬه اﻟﻮﺣﺪة ﻹﺳﻨﺎد ﻗﯿﻢ ﺟﺪﯾﺪة ﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات أو ﻛﺎﺋﻨﺎت أو ﺻﻔﺎت أو أﻧﻮاع ﻛﺎﺋﻨﺎت أو ﺻﻮر‬
‫ﻛﺎﺋﻨﺎت أو اي ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮات ﻧﻈﺎم‪ .‬وﯾﻤﻜﻦ إﺳﻨﺎد ﻋﺪة أﺷﯿﺎء ﺑﻮﺣﺪة إﺳﻨﺎد واﺣﺪة‪.‬‬
‫اﻹﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﺎت اﻟﻌﺎدﯾﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺗﺮاﻛﻢ ﻋﺪد أﺟﺰاء اﻟﺘﺠﻤﯿﻊ اﻟﻤﻀﺎﻓﺔ ﻟﻘﻄﻌﺔ ﺗﺼﻨﻊ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺗﻐﯿﺮ ﻧﻮع ﻛﺎﺋﻦ ﻟﯿﻤﺜﻞ ﻧﺴﺨﺔ اﻟﻌﻤﯿﻞ ﻟﻔﺎﺗﻮرة‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬إﻋﻄﺎء زﺑﻮن أﻓﻀﻠﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫وﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺨﻮاص ﻓﻲ طﻮر ﻣﺨﻄﻂ اﻹﻧﺴﯿﺎب‪:‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار إﺳﻨﺎدات ‪Assignments‬‬
‫‪225‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار إﺳﻨﺎدات ﻟﻠﻨﻮع‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺤﻮار ﻟﻺﺳﻨﺎدات‬
‫وﯾﺤﺪد إﺳﻨﺎد أو أﻛﺜﺮ واﻟﺬي ﺳﯿﻌﻄﻰ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ‬ ‫إﺳﻨﺎد ‪Assignment‬‬
‫ﯾﺪﺧﻞ ﻛﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﻮﺣﺪة‪.‬‬

‫ﻧﻮع اﻹﺳﻨﺎد اﻟﺬي ﺳﯿﺘﻢ‪ .‬اﻟﻨﻮع "ﻏﯿﺮذﻟﻚ"‬ ‫ﻧﻮع ‪Type‬‬
‫‪ Other‬ﯾﻤﻜﻦ أن ﺗﺸﻤﻞ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮات ﻧﻈﺎم ﻣﺜﻞ ﺳﻌﺔ‬

‫اﻟﻤﻮرد أو زﻣﻦ إﻧﺘﮭﺎء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪.‬‬
‫إﺳﻢ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﺬي ﺳﺘﺴﻨﺪ إﻟﯿﮫ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﺟﺪﯾﺪة ﻋﻨﺪ‬ ‫إﺳﻢ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ ‪Variable Name‬‬
‫دﺧﻮل اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﻮﺣﺪة‪ .‬وﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻓﻘﻂ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ‬

‫ﯾﻜﻮن اﻟﻨﻮع "ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ"‪.‬‬
‫‪226‬‬
‫إﺳﻢ "ﺻﻔﺔ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ" اﻟﺘﻲ ﺳﺘﺴﻨﺪ إﻟﯿﮭﺎ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﺟﺪﯾﺪة‬ ‫إﺳﻢ اﻟﺼﻔﺔ ‪Attribute Name‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪ دﺧﻮل اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﻮﺣﺪة‪ .‬وﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻓﻘﻂ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ‬

‫ﯾﻜﻮن اﻟﻨﻮع "ﺻﻔﺔ"‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﻮع اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﺠﺪﯾﺪ اﻟﺬي ﺳﯿﺴﻨﺪ إﻟﯿﮫ ﻋﻨﺪ دﺧﻮﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻧﻮع اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ ‪Entity Type‬‬
‫اﻟﻮﺣﺪة‪ .‬وﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻓﻘﻂ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﻜﻮن اﻟﻨﻮع "ﻧﻮع‬

‫ﻛﺎﺋﻦ" ‪Entity Type‬‬
‫ﻧﻮع "ﺻﻮرة ﻛﺎﺋﻦ" اﻟﺠﺪﯾﺪة واﻟﺘﻲ ﺳﺘﺴﻨﺪ إﻟﯿﮫ‬ ‫ﺻﻮرة ﻛﺎﺋﻦ ‪Entity Picture‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪ دﺧﻮﻟﮫ اﻟﻮﺣﺪة‪ .‬وﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻓﻘﻂ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﻜﻮن‬

‫اﻟﻨﻮع "ﺻﻮرة ﻛﺎﺋﻦ"‪.‬‬
‫وﺗﻌﯿﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﺨﺎص واﻟﺬي ﺳﯿﺴﻨﺪ إﻟﯿﮫ‬ ‫ﻏﯿﺮ ذﻟﻚ ‪Other‬‬
‫ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﺟﺪﯾﺪة ﻋﻨﺪ دﺧﻮل اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﻮﺣﺪة‪ .‬وﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم‬

‫ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﻜﻮن اﻟﻨﻮع "ﻏﯿﺮذﻟﻚ"‪.‬‬
‫ﻗﯿﻤﺔ اﻹﺳﻨﺎد ﻟﻠﺼﻔﺔ أو اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ أو ﻏﯿﺮذﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺠﺪﯾﺪة ‪New Value‬‬
‫ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪ .‬ﻻﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﻜﻮن اﻟﻨﻮع‬

‫"ﻧﻮع ﻛﺎﺋﻦ" أو "ﺻﻮرة ﻛﺎﺋﻦ"‪.‬‬
‫وﺣﺪة أﺳﻨﺪ ‪ Assign Module‬ﺑﻠﻐﺔ ‪SIMAN‬‬
‫;‬
‫;‬ ‫‪Model statements for module:‬‬ ‫‪Assign 1‬‬
‫;‬
‫‪0$‬‬ ‫;‪ASSIGN‬‬
‫‪227‬‬
‫ورﺷﺔ ﺗﺼﻠﯿﺢ ﻣﻌﺪات ﺛﻘﯿﻠﺔ‪ .‬ﯾﻌﻤﻞ ﺑﮭﺎ ﻋﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ أﺣﺪھﻢ ﻣﺎھﺮ وﯾﻘﻮم ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺼﻠﯿﺤﺎت اﻟﺴﺮﯾﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺎﺣﻨﺎت‬
‫اﻟﺼﻐﯿﺮة ذات اﻻﻓﻀﻠﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﺼﻠﯿﺢ واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺄﺗﻲ ﻟﻠﻮرﺷﺔ ﺑﺄزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ وﺻﻮل ﻣﻮزﻋﺔ اﺳﯿﺎ ﺑﻤﻌﺪل‬
‫ﺳﯿﺎرة ﻛﻞ ‪ 15‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ وﯾﺴﺘﻐﺮق ﻓﻲ إﺻﻼﺣﮭﺎ زﻣﻦ ﻣﻮزع طﺒﯿﻌﯿﺎ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 5‬دﻗﺎﺋﻖ وإﻧﺤﺮاف‬
‫ﻣﻌﯿﺎري ‪ 1‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‪ .‬اﻟﺸﺎﺣﻨﺎت اﻟﻜﺒﯿﺮة واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺄﺗﻲ ﻟﺘﺼﻠﯿﺤﺎت ﺟﺎﻧﺒﯿﺔ ﺗﺼﻞ ﻟﻠﻮرﺷﺔ ﺑﺄزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ‬
‫وﺻﻮل ﻣﻮزﻋﺔ اﺳﯿﺎ ﺑﻤﻌﺪل ﺳﯿﺎرة ﻛﻞ ‪ 10‬دﻗﺎﺋﻖ وﯾﻘﻮم ﺑﺈﺻﻼﺣﮭﺎ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﺎھﺮ ﻓﻲ زﻣﻦ‬
‫ﻣﻮزع طﺒﯿﻌﻲ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 6‬دﻗﺎﺋﻖ وإﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﯿﺎري ‪ 1‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺣﺎﻛﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم وأوﺟﺪ ﻣﻘﺎﯾﯿﺲ اﻹداء‪.‬‬
‫وﻧﻘﺴﻢ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ ﻟﻠﺘﻮﺿﯿﺢ‬
‫‪228‬‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﺒﯿﻦ ﻧﻮاﻓﺬ اﻟﺨﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﻓﻲ طﻮر ﺻﻔﺤﺔ اﻟﻨﺸﺮ ﻓﻘﻂ‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ‪Cteate‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ‪Assign‬‬
‫‪229‬‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ ھﻨﺎ أﺳﻨﺪﻧﺎ أﻓﻀﻠﯿﺔ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻧﻮع اﻟﺼﻔﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻧﻮع ﻣﻦ أﻧﻮاع اﻟﺸﺎﺣﻨﺎت‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ‪Decide‬‬
‫وﺣﺪة ‪ Decide‬ﻗﺎﻣﺖ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﺻﻔﺔ اﻷﻓﻀﻠﯿﺔ ﻟﻜﻲ ﺗﺮﺳﻞ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ )اﻟﺸﺎﺣﻨﺔ( إﻟﻰ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﺳﺐ‪.‬‬
‫‪230‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ‪Process‬‬
‫‪231‬‬
.‫ ﯾﺘﺮك ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻟﺐ إﺳﺘﺨﺮاج اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‬:‫ﺗﻤﺮﯾﻦ‬

PROJECT, "WorkShop","Dr. A.
ATTRIBUTES: Priority;
VARIABLES: Which Worker?.NumberOut

True,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):
Skilled.NumberIn,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):
232
Not
Skilled.NumberIn,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):
Normal
Repair.NumberOut,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):
Skilled.NumberOut,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):
Not
Skilled.NumberOut,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):
Not
Skilled.WIP,CLEAR(System),CATEGORY("Exclude-Exclude"):
Finished
Which Worker?.NumberOut
Fast
Skilled.WIP,CLEAR(System),CATEGORY("Exclude-Exclude");
QUEUES: Skilled.Queue:
Not Skilled.Queue,FIFO,,AUTOSTATS(Yes,,);
Picture.Green Ball:
Picture.Blue Page:
Picture.Telephone:
Picture.Blue Ball:
Picture.EMail:
Picture.Bike:
Picture.Report:
Picture.Van:
Picture.Widgets:
233
Picture.Envelope:
Picture.Fax:
Picture.Truck:
Picture.Letter:
Picture.Box:
Picture.Woman:
Picture.Package:
Picture.Man:
Picture.Diskette:
Picture.Boat:
Picture.Red Page:
Picture.Green Page:
Picture.Red Ball;
RESOURCES: Skilled
Worker,Capacity(1),,,COST(0.0,0.0,0.0),CATEGORY(Resources
),,AUTOSTATS(Yes,,):
Not Skilled
Worker,Capacity(1),,,COST(0.0,0.0,0.0),CATEGORY(Resources
REPLICATE,
ENTITIES:
Van,Picture.Van,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,AUTOSTATS(Yes,,):
Truck,Picture.Truck,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,AUTOSTATS(Yes
,,);
;
;
234
6$ CREATE,
1,MinutesToBaseTime(0.0),Truck:MinutesToBaseTime(EXPO(10)
):NEXT(7$);
7$ ASSIGN: Normal
Repair.NumberOut=Normal Repair.NumberOut + 1:NEXT(0$);
;
;
; Model statements for module: Assign 1
;
0$ ASSIGN: Priority=2:NEXT(2$);
;
;
;
2$ BRANCH, 1:
If,Priority==1,10$,Yes:
Else,11$,Yes;
10$ ASSIGN: Which Worker?.NumberOut
True=Which Worker?.NumberOut True + 1:NEXT(3$);
11$ ASSIGN: Which Worker?.NumberOut

False=Which Worker?.NumberOut False + 1:NEXT(4$);
;
;
;
235
3$ ASSIGN:
Skilled.NumberIn=Skilled.NumberIn + 1:
Skilled.WIP=Skilled.WIP+1;
15$ QUEUE, Skilled.Queue;
14$ SEIZE, 2,VA:
Skilled Worker,1:NEXT(13$);
13$ DELAY:
MinutesToBaseTime(Normal(5,1)),,VA;
12$ RELEASE: Skilled Worker,1;
60$ ASSIGN:
Skilled.NumberOut=Skilled.NumberOut + 1:
Skilled.WIP=Skilled.WIP-
1:NEXT(5$);
;
;
;
5$ ASSIGN: Finished
Repair.NumberOut=Finished Repair.NumberOut + 1;
63$ DISPOSE: Yes;
;
;
;
4$ ASSIGN: Not Skilled.NumberIn=Not
Skilled.NumberIn + 1:
Not Skilled.WIP=Not
Skilled.WIP+1;
67$ QUEUE, Not Skilled.Queue;
236
66$ SEIZE, 2,VA:
Not Skilled
Worker,1:NEXT(65$);
65$ DELAY:
MinutesToBaseTime(Normal(6,1)),,VA;
64$ RELEASE: Not Skilled Worker,1;
112$ ASSIGN: Not Skilled.NumberOut=Not
Skilled.NumberOut + 1:
Not Skilled.WIP=Not
Skilled.WIP-1:NEXT(5$);
;
;
;
115$ CREATE,
1,MinutesToBaseTime(0.0),Van:MinutesToBaseTime(EXPO(15)):
NEXT(116$);
116$ ASSIGN: Fast Repair.NumberOut=Fast

Repair.NumberOut + 1:NEXT(1$);
;
;
; Model statements for module: Assign 2
;
1$ ASSIGN: Priority=1:NEXT(2$);
237
‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪:5‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻤﺜﺎل ﻧﺴﺘﻌﺮض اﻟﻮﺣﺪﺗﯿﻦ ﺣﺰم و ﻓﺼﻞ ‪ Batch Module‬و ‪ Separate Module‬وﺗﻘﻮم‬
‫اﻻوﻟﻰ ﺑﺤﺰم أو ﺟﻤﻊ ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺤﻘﻖ ﺻﻔﺔ أو ﺷﺮط أو ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﻣﻌﯿﻦ ﻣﻊ ﺑﻌﻀﮭﺎ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞ ﻛﺎﺋﻦ ﺟﺪﯾﺪ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ داﺋﻢ أو ﻣﺆﻗﺖ وﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﺤﺰم اﻟﻤﺆﻗﺖ ﺗﻘﻮم وﺣﺪة ﻓﺼﻞ ﺑﻔﺼﻠﮭﻢ إﻟﻰ‬
‫ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺗﮭﻢ اﻷﺻﻠﯿﺔ‪ .‬وﻟﮭﻢ اﻟﺘﺮاﻛﯿﺐ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫وﺣﺪة ﺣﺰم ‪Batch Module‬‬
‫وھﺬه اﻟﻮﺣﺪة ﻟﮭﺎ ﻣﺪﺧﻞ واﺣﺪ وﻣﺨﺮج واﺣﺪ وﯾﻌﻄﻲ اﻟﺮﻗﻢ ﻓﻲ أﺳﻔﻞ اﻟﻮﺣﺪة ﻋﺪد اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫ﺗﺤﺰم‪.‬‬
‫وﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ھﺬه اﻟﻮﺣﺪة ﻛﺂﻟﯿﺔ ﺗﺠﻤﯿﻊ داﺧﻞ ﻧﻤﻮذج اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪ .‬اﻟﺤﺰم ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﺗﺠﻤﻊ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ أﺑﺪي أو‬
‫ﻣﺆﻗﺖ‪ .‬اﻟﺤﺰم اﻟﻤﺆﻗﺘﺔ ﯾﺠﺐ ان ﺗﻔﺮق أو ﺗﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ اﻟﻮﺣﺪة ﻓﺼﻞ ”‪.“Separate Module‬‬
‫اﻟﺘﺤﺰﯾﻢ ﯾﺘﻢ إﻣﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺪد ﻣﺤﺪد ﻣﻦ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺪﺧﻞ اﻟﻮﺣﺪة أو ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﺎﺋﻨﺎت ﺗﺤﻘﻖ ﺻﻔﺔ ﻣﻌﯿﻨﺔ‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺼﻞ إﻟﻰ وﺣﺪة ﺣﺰم ﺗﻮﺿﻊ ﻓﻲ طﺎﺑﻮر ﺣﺘﻰ ﯾﺘﺠﻤﻊ اﻟﻌﺪد اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﻣﻨﮭﺎ‪ .‬وﺑﻌﺪ‬
‫ﺗﺠﻤﯿﻌﮭﺎ ﯾﻮﻟﺪ ﻛﺎﺋﻦ ﺟﺪﯾﺪ ﯾﻤﺜﻠﮭﺎ‪.‬‬
‫اﻹﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﺎت اﻟﻌﺎدﯾﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺗﺠﻤﯿﻊ ﻋﺪد ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﻄﻊ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺗﺼﻨﯿﻊ ﺟﮭﺎز‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬إﻋﺎدة ﺗﺠﻤﯿﻊ ﻧﺴﺦ ﻣﻦ ﺻﯿﻐﺔ ﺳﺒﻖ ﻓﺼﻠﮭﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺟﻤﻊ ﻣﺮﯾﺾ ﻣﻊ ﻣﻠﻔﮫ ﻗﺒﻞ دﺧﻮﻟﮫ ﻋﻠﻰ طﺒﯿﺐ‪.‬‬
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‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺤﻮار ﻟﻠﻨﻮع‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺤﻮار ﻟﻤﻌﯿﺎر اﻟﺤﻔﻆ ‪Save Criterion‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺤﻮار ﻟﻠﻘﺎﻋﺪة‬
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‫ﻣﻊ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار اﻟﻨﻮع‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار ﻣﻌﯿﺎر اﻟﺤﻔﻆ‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺤﻮار ﻟﻠﻘﺎﻋﺪة‬
‫طﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﺣﺰم اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت ﻣﻌﺎ‪.‬‬ ‫ﻧﻮع ‪Type‬‬
‫ﻋﺪد اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺳﺘﺤﺰم‪.‬‬ ‫ﺣﺠﻢ اﻟﺤﺰﻣﺔ ‪Batch Size‬‬
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‫طﺮﯾﻘﺔ إﺳﻨﺎد ﻛﺎﺋﻦ ﯾﻤﺜﻞ اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ وﻣﻌﺮف‬ ‫ﻣﻌﯿﺎر اﻟﺤﻔﻆ ‪Save Criterion‬‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪم‪.‬‬
‫وﺗﺤﺪد ﻛﯿﻔﯿﺔ ﺣﺰم اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻟﻘﺎدﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﻮﺣﺪة‪" .‬أي‬ ‫ﻗﺎﻋﺪة ‪Rule‬‬
‫وﺣﺪة" ‪ Any Entity‬ﺳﻮف ﺗﺄﺧﺬ أول "ﺣﺠﻢ‬

‫ﺣﺰﻣﺔ" ﻣﻦ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻟﻘﺎدﻣﺔ وﺗﺤﺰﻣﮭﺎ ﻣﻌﺎ‪.‬‬
‫"ﺑﺎﻟﺼﻔﺔ" ‪ By Attribute‬ﺗﺤﺰم ﻣﻌﺎ "ﺣﺠﻢ‬
‫ﺣﺰﻣﺔ" ﻛﻞ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻟﻘﺎدﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم واﻟﺘﻲ ﻟﮭﺎ‬
‫ﺻﻔﺔ ﻣﻌﯿﻨﺔ‪.‬‬
‫إﺳﻢ اﻟﺼﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﻞ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ‬ ‫إﺳﻢ اﻟﺼﻔﺔ ‪Attribute Name‬‬
‫ﺳﺘﺤﺰم ﻣﻌﺎ أن ﺗﺸﺘﺮك ﻓﯿﮭﺎ‪ .‬وﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ‬

‫ﺗﻜﻮن اﻟﻘﺎﻋﺪة "ﺑﺎﻟﺼﻔﺔ"‬
‫وﺣﺪة ﺣﺰم ‪ Batch Module‬ﺑﻠﻐﺔ ‪SIMAN‬‬
‫‪VARIABLES:‬‬ ‫‪Batch‬‬
‫;)"‪1.NumberOut,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude‬‬
‫‪QUEUES:‬‬ ‫;)‪Batch 1.Queue,FIFO,,AUTOSTATS(Yes,,‬‬
‫;‬
‫;‬ ‫‪Model statements for module:‬‬ ‫‪Batch 1‬‬
‫;‬
‫‪0$‬‬ ‫‪QUEUE,‬‬ ‫;‪Batch 1.Queue‬‬
‫‪1$‬‬ ‫‪GROUP,‬‬ ‫;)‪,Permanent:2,Last:NEXT(2$‬‬
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‫‪2$‬‬ ‫‪ASSIGN:‬‬ ‫‪Batch 1.NumberOut=Batch‬‬
‫;‪1.NumberOut + 1‬‬
‫وﺣﺪة ﻓﺼﻞ ‪Separate Module‬‬
‫وﻟﮭﺎ ﻣﺪﺧﻞ وﻣﺨﺮﺟﯿﻦ ﻟﻠﻨﺴﺦ اﻷﺻﻠﯿﺔ وﯾﻌﻄﻲ ﻋﺪدھﺎ ﻓﻮق اﻟﻤﺨﺮج وﻟﻠﻨﺴﺦ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺮﺟﺔ وﯾﻌﻄﻰ‬
‫ﻋﺪدھﺎ اﺳﻔﻞ اﻟﻮﺣﺪة‪.‬‬
‫ھﺬه اﻟﻮﺣﺪة ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم إﻣﺎ ﻟﻨﺴﺦ ﻛﺎﺋﻦ ﻗﺎدم إﻟﻰ ﻋﺪة ﻧﺴﺦ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت أو ﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﻛﺎﺋﻨﺎت ﺗﻢ‬
‫ﺣﺰﻣﮭﺎ ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺎ‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﻌﻄﻰ ﻗﻮاﻋﺪ ﺗﺨﺼﯿﺺ ﺗﻜﺎﻟﯿﻒ وأزﻣﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﺴﺦ اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺠﺔ‪ .‬ﻋﻨﺪ ﻓﺼﻞ ﺣﺰم ﻓﺈن‬
‫اﻟﻤﻤﺜﻞ ﻟﺘﻠﻚ اﻟﺤﺰم ﯾﺘﻢ اﻟﺘﺨﻠﺺ ﻣﻨﮫ وﺗﺴﺘﺮﺟﻊ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻷﺻﻠﯿﺔ‪ .‬وﺗﺘﺤﺮك اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺠﺔ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ‬
‫ﺗﺘﺎﺑﻌﻲ ﺣﺴﺐ اﻟﺘﺮﺗﯿﺐ اﻟﺬي ﺗﻢ ﺑﮫ ﺗﺠﻤﯿﻌﮭﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺤﺰﻣﺔ‪ .‬ﻋﻨﺪ ﻧﺴﺦ ﻛﺎﺋﻨﺎت ﻓﺈن اﻟﻌﺪد اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﻣﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻨﺴﺦ ﯾﺘﻢ ﻋﻤﻠﮫ وإرﺳﺎﻟﮫ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻮﺣﺪة ﻛﻤﺎ أن اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ اﻷﺻﻠﻲ ﯾﻐﺎدر اﻟﻮﺣﺪة‪.‬‬
‫اﻹﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﺎت اﻟﻤﻌﺘﺎدة‪:‬‬
‫‪ -‬إرﺳﺎل ﻛﺎﺋﻨﺎت ﻣﻨﻔﺼﻠﺔ ﺗﻤﺜﻞ ﺻﻨﺎدﯾﻖ ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺮﺟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺣﺎوﯾﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬إرﺳﺎل أﺻﻞ إﺳﺘﻤﺎرة ﻣﻊ ﻧﺴﺨﮭﺎ ﻟﻜﻲ ﯾﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻮازي‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻓﺼﻞ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻨﺪات ﺟﻤﻌﺖ ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺎ‪.‬‬
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‫وھﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺣﻮار اﻟﻨﻮع ﻋﻨﺪ ﻧﺴﺦ اﻷﺻﻞ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار اﻟﻨﻮع‬
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‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار اﻟﻨﻮع ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﺼﻞ ﺣﺰﻣﺔ‬

‫ﻣﻊ ظﮭﻮر ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار اﻟﻨﻮع‬
‫ﺣﻮار اﻟﻨﻮع ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﺼﻞ ﺣﺰﻣﺔ‬
‫طﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﻓﺼﻞ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻟﻘﺎدﻣﺔ‪" .‬ﻧﺴﺦ اﻷﺻﻞ"‬ ‫ﻧﻮع ‪Type‬‬
‫‪ Duplicate Original‬وﯾﺘﻢ ﻧﺴﺦ ﻋﺪد ﻣﺤﺪد ﻣﻦ‬
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‫اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ اﻷﺻﻠﻲ‪" .‬ﻗﺴﻢ اﻟﺤﺰﻣﺔ اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮدة"‬
‫‪ Split Existing Batch‬وھﻨﺎ ﯾﺘﻢ ﻓﺼﻞ ﻛﺎﺋﻦ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞ ﺣﺰﻣﺔ ﺟﻤﻌﺖ ﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ اﻟﻮﺣﺪة "ﺣﺰم" إﻟﻰ‬
‫اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻷﺻﻠﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻌﻄﻲ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ وزﻣﻦ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﻘﺎدم ﻟﻠﻨﺴﺦ اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﺔ‬ ‫ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﻨﺴﺦ ‪Percent Cost to‬‬
‫وھﺬه اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ ﺗﺤﺪد ﻛﻨﺴﺒﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻷﺳﺎﺳﯿﺔ‬ ‫‪Duplicates‬‬
‫ﻟﻠﻜﺎﺋﻦ اﻷﺻﻠﻲ )ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ (100-0‬وھﺬه اﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬

‫ﺗﻮزع ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺴﺎوي ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻨﺴﺦ اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺠﺔ وﻣﺎ ﯾﺘﺒﻘﻰ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﻧﺴﺒﺔ ﺗﻈﻞ ﻟﻠﻜﺎﺋﻦ اﻷﺻﻠﻲ‪ .‬وﺗﺴﺘﻌﻤﻞ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ‬
‫ﯾﻜﻮن اﻟﻨﻮع "ﻧﺴﺦ اﻷﺻﻞ"‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﺪد اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺠﺔ واﻟﺘﻲ ﺳﺘﻐﺎدر اﻟﻮﺣﺪة‬ ‫ﻋﺪد اﻟﻨﺴﺦ ‪# of Duplicates‬‬
‫ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ إﻟﻰ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ اﻷﺻﻠﻲ‪ .‬ﺗﺴﺘﻌﻤﻞ ﻓﻘﻂ‬

‫ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﻜﻮن اﻟﻨﻮع "ﻧﺴﺦ اﻷﺻﻞ"‪.‬‬
‫طﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﻛﯿﻔﯿﺔ إﺳﻨﺎد ﻗﯿﻢ ﺻﻔﺎت اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ‬ ‫ﺻﻔﺎت اﻟﻌﻀﻮ ‪Member Attributes‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﻤﺜﻞ ﻟﻠﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ إﻟﻰ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻷﺻﻠﯿﺔ‪ .‬ھﺬه‬

‫اﻹﺧﺘﯿﺎرات ﺗﻌﻮد إﻟﻰ ‪ 6‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﺼﻔﺎت اﻟﺨﺎﺻﺔ‬
‫) ‪Entity.Type, Entity.Picture,‬‬
‫‪Entity.Station, Entity.Sequence,‬‬
‫‪( Entity.HoldCostRate, and Entity.Jobstep‬‬
‫وﻟﻜﻞ اﻟﺼﻔﺎت اﻟﻤﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪم‪ .‬وﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﻜﻮن اﻟﻨﻮع "ﻗﺴﻢ اﻟﺤﺰﻣﺔ اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻌﺔ"‪.‬‬
‫إﺳﻢ ﺻﻔﺔ أو ﺻﻔﺎت اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﻤﻤﺜﻞ واﻟﺘﻲ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ‬ ‫إﺳﻢ اﻟﺼﻔﺔ ‪Attribute Name‬‬
‫ﻣﺴﻨﺪة ﻟﻠﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻷﺻﻠﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺤﺰﻣﺔ وﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم‬

‫ﻓﻘﻂ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﻜﻮن "ﺻﻔﺎت اﻟﻌﻀﻮ" ھﻲ ‪“Take‬‬
‫”‪Specific Representative Value‬‬
‫وﺣﺪة ﻓﺼﻞ ‪ Separate Module‬ﺑﻠﻐﺔ ‪SIMAN‬‬
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VARIABLES: Separate 1.NumberOut

Dup,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):
Separate 1.NumberOut
Orig,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude");
; Model statements for module: Separate 1
;
0$ DUPLICATE, 100 - 50:
1,3$,50:NEXT(2$);
2$ ASSIGN: Separate 1.NumberOut

Orig=Separate 1.NumberOut Orig + 1;
3$ ASSIGN: Separate 1.NumberOut
Dup=Separate 1.NumberOut Dup + 1;
246
‫وﻧﺴﺘﻌﺮﺿﮭﻢ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺜﺎل اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺷﺮﻛﺔ طﯿﺮان ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﺗﻤﺘﻠﻚ طﺎﺋﺮات ﺻﻐﯿﺮة ﺗﺤﻤﻞ ‪ 10‬رﻛﺎب ﻓﻘﻂ‪ .‬ﺗﻘﻮم ھﺬه اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺑﺮﺣﻼت‬
‫إﻟﻰ ﺟﺪة واﻟﺪﻣﺎم واﻟﻤﺪﯾﻨﺔ‪ .‬اﻟﺮﻛﺎب اﻟﻤﻐﺎدرون إﻟﻰ ﺟﺪه ﯾﺼﻠﻮ ﺑﺄزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ وﺻﻮل ﺗﺘﺒﻊ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ‬
‫اﻻﺳﻲ ﺑﻤﻌﺪل ‪ 7‬رﻛﺎب ﻓﻲ اﻟﺪﻗﯿﻘﺔ ورﻛﺎب اﻟﺪﻣﺎم ﯾﺼﻠﻮ ﺑﺄزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ وﺻﻮل ﺗﺘﺒﻊ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻻﺳﻲ‬
‫ﺑﻤﻌﺪل ‪ 6‬رﻛﺎب ﻓﻲ اﻟﺪﻗﯿﻘﺔ و ورﻛﺎب اﻟﻤﺪﯾﻨﺔ ﯾﺼﻠﻮ ﺑﺄزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ وﺻﻮل ﺗﺘﺒﻊ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻻﺳﻲ‬
‫ﺑﻤﻌﺪل ‪ 8‬رﻛﺎب ﻓﻲ اﻟﺪﻗﯿﻘﺔ‪ .‬اﻟﻄﺎﺋﺮة ﻻﺗﻘﻠﻊ ﺣﺘﻰ ﯾﻜﺘﻤﻞ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺮﻛﺎب‪ .‬زﻣﻦ اﻟﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﻟﺠﺪة ﻟﮫ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ‬
‫ﻣﺘﺴﺎوي ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 1.9‬و ‪ 2.2‬ﺳﺎﻋﺔ وﻟﻠﺪﻣﺎم ﻟﮫ اﯾﻀﺎ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﺘﺴﺎوي ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 0.9‬و ‪ 1.1‬ﺳﺎﻋﺔ وﻟﻠﻤﺪﯾﻨﺔ‬
‫اﯾﻀﺎ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﺘﺴﺎوي ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 1.15‬و ‪ 1.25‬ﺳﺎﻋﺔ‪ .‬ﺣﺎﻛﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم وأوﺟﺪ ﻣﻘﺎﯾﯿﺲ اﻷداء‪.‬‬
‫وﻧﻘﺴﻤﮫ ﻟﻠﺘﻮﺿﯿﺢ‬
‫‪247‬‬
248
‫ﻧﻜﺘﻔﻲ ﺑﻌﺮض ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ اﻟﻮﺣﺪات ﺑﻄﻮر ﺻﻔﺤﺔ اﻟﻨﺸﺮ‬
‫ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ‪Create‬‬
‫ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ‪Batch‬‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ أن ﻧﻮع اﻟﺤﺰم ‪ Type‬ﻣﺆﻗﺖ ‪ .Temporary‬ﺣﺠﻢ اﻟﺤﺰﻣﺔ ‪ Batch Size‬ھﻮ ‪) 10‬ﺳﻌﺔ اﻟﻄﺎﺋﺮة(‬
‫و ﻣﻌﯿﺎر ﺣﻔﻆ اﻟﺤﺰﻣﺔ ‪ Save Criterion‬ھﻮ آﺧﺮ ‪ Last‬ﻛﺎﺋﻦ )راﻛﺐ( ﯾﺼﻞ واﻟﻘﺎﻋﺪة )ﻟﻠﺤﻔﻆ(‬
‫‪ Rule‬ﺑﺎﻟﺼﻔﺔ ‪ By Attribute‬وإﺳﻢ اﻟﺼﻔﺔ ‪ Attribute Name‬ھﻮ ﻧﻮع اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ ‪Entity.Type‬‬
‫ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ‪Decide‬‬
‫ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ‪Process‬‬
‫‪249‬‬
‫ﻧﻮاﻓﺬ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ اﻟﻤﻮارد‬
‫ﺧﻮاص ‪Separate‬‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ ھﻨﺎ ﻧﻮع اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ‪ Type‬ھﻮ ﻓﺼﻞ اﻟﺤﺰﻣﺔ اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮدة ‪ Split Existing Batch‬وﺻﻔﺔ اﻷﻋﻀﺎء‬
‫‪ Member Attribute‬ھﻮ اﻹﺑﻘﺎء ﻋﻠﻰ ﻗﯿﻢ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻷﺻﻠﯿﺔ ‪.Retain Original Entity Values‬‬
‫أﺧﯿﺮا ﺧﻮاص ‪.Dispose‬‬
‫‪250‬‬
.‫ ﯾﺘﺮك ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻟﺐ إﺳﺘﺨﺮاج اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‬:‫ﺗﻤﺮﯾﻦ‬

PROJECT, "Private
Air","amb",,,No,Yes,Yes,Yes,No,No,No;
VARIABLES: To
Madina.NumberOut,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):
To
Jedda.NumberOut,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):
251
To
Dammam.NumberIn,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):
To Madina
To
Jedda.NumberIn,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):
To Dammam
Fly
To.NumberOut,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):
Dispose
1.NumberOut,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):
To
Madina.NumberIn,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):
To Jedda
To
Jedda.WIP,CLEAR(System),CATEGORY("Exclude-Exclude"):
To
Dammam.NumberOut,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):
To
Madina.WIP,CLEAR(System),CATEGORY("Exclude-Exclude"):
Arrival Terminal.NumberOut
Orig,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):
To
Dammam.WIP,CLEAR(System),CATEGORY("Exclude-Exclude");
QUEUES: Fly To.Queue,FIFO,,AUTOSTATS(Yes,,):

To Dammam.Queue:
To Jedda.Queue,FIFO,,AUTOSTATS(Yes,,):
To Madina.Queue;
Picture.Green Ball:
252
Picture.Blue Page:
Picture.Telephone:
Picture.Blue Ball:
Picture.EMail:
Picture.Bike:
Picture.Report:
Picture.Van:
Picture.Widgets:
Picture.Envelope:
Picture.Fax:
Picture.Truck:
Picture.Letter:
Picture.Box:
Picture.Woman:
Picture.Package:
Picture.Man:
Picture.Diskette:
Picture.Boat:
Picture.Red Page:
Picture.Green Page:
Picture.Red Ball;
RESOURCES: Flight
Three,Capacity(1),,,COST(0.0,0.0,0.0),CATEGORY(Resources)
,,AUTOSTATS(Yes,,):
Flight
One,Capacity(1),,,COST(0.0,0.0,0.0),CATEGORY(Resources),,
AUTOSTATS(Yes,,):
Flight
Two,Capacity(1),,,COST(0.0,0.0,0.0),CATEGORY(Resources),,
AUTOSTATS(Yes,,);
253
REPLICATE,
1,,HoursToBaseTime(10),Yes,Yes,,,,24,Hours,No,No;
ENTITIES: To Dammam
Passinger,Picture.Man,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,AUTOSTATS(Y
es,,):
To Madina
es,,):
To Jedda
es,,);
;
;
7$ CREATE, 1,MinutesToBaseTime(0.0),To
Jedda Passinger:MinutesToBaseTime(EXPO(7)):NEXT(8$);
8$ ASSIGN: To Jedda Arrive.NumberOut=To

Jedda Arrive.NumberOut + 1:NEXT(0$);
;
;
; Model statements for module: Batch 1
;
0$ QUEUE, Fly To.Queue;
11$ GROUP,
Entity.Type,Temporary:10,Last:NEXT(12$);
12$ ASSIGN: Fly To.NumberOut=Fly

To.NumberOut + 1:NEXT(3$);
254
;
;
;
3$ BRANCH, 1:
If,Entity.Type==To Jedda
Passinger,6$,Yes:
If,Entity.Type==To Dammam
Passinger,4$,Yes:
If,Entity.Type==To Madina
Passinger,5$,Yes:
Else,2$,Yes;
;
;
;
2$ ASSIGN: Dispose 1.NumberOut=Dispose
1.NumberOut + 1;
15$ DISPOSE: Yes;
;
;
;
6$ ASSIGN: To Jedda.NumberIn=To
Jedda.NumberIn + 1:
To Jedda.WIP=To Jedda.WIP+1;
19$ QUEUE, To Jedda.Queue;
18$ SEIZE, 2,NVA:
Flight One,1:NEXT(17$);
255
17$ DELAY: Uniform(1.9,2.2),,NVA;
16$ RELEASE: Flight One,1;
64$ ASSIGN: To Jedda.NumberOut=To
Jedda.NumberOut + 1:
To Jedda.WIP=To Jedda.WIP-
1:NEXT(1$);
;
;
; Model statements for module: Separate 1
;
1$ SPLIT::NEXT(67$);
67$ ASSIGN: Arrival Terminal.NumberOut

Orig=Arrival Terminal.NumberOut Orig + 1:NEXT(2$);
;
;
;
4$ ASSIGN: To Dammam.NumberIn=To
Dammam.NumberIn + 1:
To Dammam.WIP=To
Dammam.WIP+1;
73$ QUEUE, To Dammam.Queue;
72$ SEIZE, 2,NVA:
Flight Two,1:NEXT(71$);

70$ RELEASE: Flight Two,1;
256
118$ ASSIGN: To Dammam.NumberOut=To
Dammam.NumberOut + 1:
To Dammam.WIP=To Dammam.WIP-
1:NEXT(1$);
;
;
;
5$ ASSIGN: To Madina.NumberIn=To
Madina.NumberIn + 1:
To Madina.WIP=To
Madina.WIP+1;
124$ QUEUE, To Madina.Queue;
123$ SEIZE, 2,NVA:
Flight Three,1:NEXT(122$);

121$ RELEASE: Flight Three,1;
169$ ASSIGN: To Madina.NumberOut=To
Madina.NumberOut + 1:
To Madina.WIP=To Madina.WIP-
1:NEXT(1$);
;
;
;

Dammam Passinger:MinutesToBaseTime(EXPO(6)):NEXT(173$);
257
173$ ASSIGN: To Dammam
Arrive.NumberOut=To Dammam Arrive.NumberOut + 1:NEXT(0$);
;
;
;

Madina Passinger:MinutesToBaseTime(EXPO(8)):NEXT(177$);
177$ ASSIGN: To Madina

Arrive.NumberOut=To Madina Arrive.NumberOut + 1:NEXT(0$);
258
‫ﻹﻛﻤﺎل إﺳﺘﻌﺮاض ﻣﻘﺪرات ‪ Arena‬ﺳﻮف ﻧﻘﺪم ﺑﻘﯿﺔ اﻟﻮﺣﺪات ﻓﻲ ﻟﻮﺣﺔ اﻟﻮﺣﺪات اﻷﺳﺎﺳﯿﺔ وھﻲ‪:‬‬
‫وﺣﺪة ﺗﺴﺠﯿﻞ ‪Record Module‬‬
‫ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ھﺬه اﻟﻮﺣﺪة ﻟﺠﻤﻊ إﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺎت ﻓﻲ ﻧﻤﻮذج اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪.‬‬

‫اﻹﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﺎت اﻟﻤﻌﺘﺎدة‪:‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺗﺠﻤﯿﻊ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻤﮭﺎم اﻟﺘﻲ اﻛﻤﻠﺖ ﻛﻞ ﺳﺎﻋﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻋﺪ ﻛﻢ طﻠﺐ ﺗﺄﺧﺮ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻘﮭﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺳﺠﻞ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ اﻟﺬي ﻗﻀﺎه زﺑﻮن ﺑﺄﻓﻀﻠﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ طﺎﺑﻮر اﻟﻔﺤﺺ اﻷوﻟﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺨﻮاص ﻓﻄﻮر ﻣﺨﻄﻂ اﻹﻧﺴﯿﺎب‪:‬‬
‫وﺗﻈﮭﺮ اﻟﻨﻮع ﻋﺪ ‪Count‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار ﻧﻮع ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ إﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺎت اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار ﻧﻮع ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﺘﺮة زﻣﻨﯿﺔ‬
‫‪259‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار ﻧﻮع ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﺑﯿﻦ‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار ﻧﻮع ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ‬

‫ﻣﻊ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار ﻧﻮع ظﺎھﺮة‬
‫‪260‬‬
‫ﻧﻮع اﻹﺣﺼﺎءات ﻣﺸﺎھﺪة أو ﻋﺪ واﻟﺘﻲ ﻣﻄﻠﻮب‬ ‫ﻧﻮع ‪Type‬‬
‫ﺟﻤﻌﮭﺎ‪" .‬ﻋﺪ" ‪ Count‬ﯾﺰﯾﺪ أو ﯾﻨﻘﺺ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ‬

‫إﺣﺼﺎﺋﺔ ﻣﺴﻤﺎة ﺑﺎﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺪدة‪" .‬إﺣﺼﺎءات‬
‫اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ" ‪ Entity Statistics‬ﯾﻮﻟﺪ إﺣﺼﺎءات‬
‫ﻋﺎﻣﺔ ﻋﻦ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ‪" .‬ﻓﺘﺮة زﻣﻦ" ‪Time Interval‬‬
‫ﯾﺤﺴﺐ وﯾﺴﺠﻞ اﻟﻔﺮق ﺑﯿﻦ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﺻﻔﺔ ﻣﺤﺪدة‬

‫وزﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة اﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ‪" .‬زﻣﻦ ﺑﯿﻦ" ‪Time‬‬
‫‪ Between‬ﯾﺘﺎﺑﻊ وﯾﺴﺠﻞ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت‬

‫اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺪﺧﻞ اﻟﻮﺣﺪة‪" .‬ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ" ‪ Expression‬ﺗﺴﺠﻞ‬
‫ﻗﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺘﻌﺒﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﻌﻄﻰ‪.‬‬
‫ﻹﺳﻢ اﻟﺼﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺳﺘﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻗﯿﻤﺘﮭﺎ ﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺎت‬ ‫إﺳﻢ اﻟﺼﻔﺔ ‪Attribute Name‬‬
‫اﻟﻔﺘﺮة‪ .‬وﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻓﻘﻂ إذا ﻛﺎن اﻟﻨﻮع "ﻓﺘﺮة"‪.‬‬

‫اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺳﺘﺴﺠﻞ ﻟﻺﺣﺼﺎﺋﺔ اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪة ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ‪Value‬‬
‫ﯾﻜﻮن اﻟﻨﻮع "ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ" أو ﺗﻀﺎف إﻟﻰ اﻟﺘﻌﺪاد‬

‫ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﻜﻮن اﻟﻨﻮع "ﻋﺪ"‪.‬‬
‫ھﺬه اﻟﺨﺎﻧﺔ ﺗﻌﺮف إﺳﻢ رﻣﺰ اﻟﺘﺴﺠﯿﻞ واﻟﺬي‬ ‫إﺳﻢ اﻟﺘﺴﺠﯿﻞ ‪Tally Name‬‬
‫ﺳﺘﺴﺠﻞ ﻓﯿﮫ اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات وﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻓﻘﻂ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ‬

‫ﯾﻜﻮن اﻟﻨﻮع "ﻓﺘﺮة زﻣﻦ" أو "زﻣﻦ ﺑﯿﻦ" أو‬
‫"ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ"‪.‬‬
‫‪261‬‬
‫وﯾﻌﺮف إﺳﻢ اﻟﺮﻣﺰ ﻟﻠﻌﺪاد اﻟﺬي ﺳﯿﺰاد أو‬ ‫إﺳﻢ اﻟﻌﺪاد ‪Counter Name‬‬
‫ﯾﻨﻘﺺ‪ .‬وﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻓﻘﻂ إذا ﻛﺎن اﻟﻨﻮع "ﻋﺪاد"‪.‬‬

‫وﯾﺨﺘﺎر ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺘﺄﻛﯿﺪ ﻟﻜﻲ ﯾﺤﺪد ﻓﯿﻤﺎ إذا ﻛﺎن‬ ‫ﺳﺠﻞ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ‪Record into Set‬‬
‫ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺨﺪم أم ﻻ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺳﺠﻞ أو ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ‬

‫ﻋﺪاد‪.‬‬
‫إﺳﻢ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ اﻟﺴﺠﻞ اﻟﺬي ﺳﯿﺴﺘﺨﺪم‬ ‫إﺳﻢ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺳﺠﻞ ‪Tally Set Name‬‬
‫ﻟﻺﺣﺼﺎﺋﺎت ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻮع اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪ‪ .‬وﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ‬

‫ﯾﻜﻮن اﻟﻨﻮع "ﻓﺘﺮة زﻣﻦ" أو "زﻣﻦ ﺑﯿﻦ" أو‬
‫"ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ"‪.‬‬
‫إﺳﻢ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ اﻟﻌﺪاد اﻟﺘﻲ ﺳﺘﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻟﺘﺴﺠﯿﻞ ﻧﻮع‬ ‫إﺳﻢ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻋﺪاد ‪Counter Set Name‬‬
‫اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻌﺪ وﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎﯾﻜﻮن‬

‫اﻟﻨﻮع "ﻋﺪ"‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺳﺠﻞ او ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻋﺪد‪.‬‬ ‫ﻣﺆﺷﺮ اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ‪Set Index‬‬
‫وﻛﺬﻟﻚ وﺣﺪﺗﯿﻦ ﻣﻦ وﺣﺪات اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ھﻲ‪:‬‬

‫وﺣﺪة ﺗﻮﻗﯿﺖ ‪Schedule Module‬‬
‫وﯾﻈﮭﺮ اﻟﺴﻄﺮ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫وﻟﮭﺎ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ‬
‫وﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻣﻊ وﺣﺪة ﻣﻮرد ﻟﺘﻌﺮﯾﻒ ﺗﻮﻗﯿﺖ ﺗﺸﻐﯿﻞ ﻟﻠﻤﻮرد أو ﻣﻊ وﺣﺪة اﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻟﺘﻌﺮﯾﻒ ﺗﻮﻗﯿﺖ‬
‫وﺻﻮل‪.‬‬
‫وإﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﺎﺗﮫ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺗﻮﻗﯿﺖ ﺷﻐﻞ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺼﻨﻊ وﯾﺸﻤﻞ اﻟﺘﻌﻄﯿﻼت ﻟﻠﻌﻤﺎل‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻧﻤﻂ ﺗﻌﻄﻞ اﻵﻻت‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﺣﺠﻢ اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﻮاﺻﻠﯿﻦ ﻟﻤﺘﺠﺮ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻋﻨﺎﺻﺮ ﻣﻨﺤﻨﻰ اﻟﺘﻌﻠﯿﻢ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﺎل اﻟﺠﺪد‪.‬‬
‫وﺣﺪة اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ‪Set Module‬‬
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‫وﺳﻄﺮه‬ ‫وﻟﮫ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ‬
‫وﯾﻌﺮف ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ أﻧﻮاع اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺎت ﺑﻤﺎﻓﯿﮭﺎ اﻟﻤﻮارد واﻟﻌﺪادات واﻟﺴﺠﻼت وأﻧﻮاع اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت وﺻﻮر‬
‫اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ ان ﻣﺠﺎﻣﯿﻊ اﻟﻤﻮارد ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻓﻲ وﺣﺪة اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺔ و واﻟﻌﺪادات واﻟﺴﺠﻼت ﯾﻤﻜﻦ‬
‫ان ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻓﻲ وﺣﺪة اﻟﺘﺴﺠﯿﻞ‪.‬‬
‫وإﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﺎﺗﮭﺎ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -‬اﻟﻤﻜﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻘﻮم ﺑﻨﻔﺲ اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺼﻨﻊ ﻣﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬اﻟﻤﺸﺮﻓﯿﻦ واﻟﺼﺮاﻓﯿﻦ ﻓﻲ ﺳﻮﺑﺮﻣﺎرﻛﺖ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬اﻟﻤﻮظﻔﯿﻦ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻜﺘﺐ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺻﻮر ﻋﺎﺋﺪة ﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ أﻧﻮاع اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت‪.‬‬
‫وﺣﺪة ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ‪Variable Module‬‬
‫وﺳﻄﺮھﺎ‬ ‫وﻟﮭﺎ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ‬
‫وﯾﻌﺮف أﺑﻌﺎد اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ ‪ Variable Dimension‬وﻗﯿﻤﮫ اﻷوﻟﯿﺔ‪ .‬وﯾﻤﻜﻦ أن ﺗﺴﺘﺮﺟﻊ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ‬

‫اﻟﻮﺣﺪات )ﻣﺜﻞ وﺣﺪة اﻟﻘﺮار( أو ﯾﻌﺎد إﺳﻨﺎد ﻗﯿﻢ ﻟﮭﺎ )ﻣﺜﻞ وﺣﺪة اﺳﻨﺪ( وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻓﻲ أي‬
‫ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ‪.‬‬
‫إﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﺎﺗﮭﺎ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -‬ﻋﺪد اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻨﺪات اﻟﻤﻜﻤﻠﺔ ﻛﻞ ﺳﺎﻋﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬أرﻗﺎم ﺗﺴﻠﺴﻠﯿﺔ ﺗﻌﻄﻰ ﻟﻘﻄﻊ ﻣﻦ أﺟﻞ اﻟﺘﻌﺮﯾﻒ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -‬اﻟﻔﺮاغ اﻟﻤﺘﺎح ﻓﻲ ﺗﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ‪.‬‬
‫وﺣﺪة ﺗﺴﺠﯿﻞ ﺑﻠﻐﺔ ‪SIMAN‬‬
‫‪263‬‬
COUNTERS: Record 1,,,,DATABASE(,"Count","User

Specified","Record 1");
;
; Model statements for module: Record 1
;
0$ COUNT: Record 1,1;
264
‫‪Case‬‬ ‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﺴﺘﻌﺮض وﺣﺪات اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﻄﻮرة و ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﮭﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻻت دراﺳﺔ‬
‫‪.Studies‬‬
‫اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﻄﻮرة‬
‫وﺣﺪات ﻣﺨﻄﻂ اﻹﻧﺴﯿﺎب ‪Flowchart Modules‬‬
‫‪ -1‬وﺣﺪة ﺗﺄﺧﯿﺮ ‪Delay Module‬‬
‫وﺣﺪة اﻟﺘﺄﺧﯿﺮ ﺗﻘﻮم ﺑﺘﺄﺧﯿﺮ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ ﻣﻘﺪار ﻣﺤﺪد ﻣﻦ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ‪ .‬وأﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ إﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﮭﺎ‬
‫‪ -1‬اﻟﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﻣﻦ ﺷﯿﻚ ﻓﻲ ﺑﻨﻚ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺗﺠﮭﯿﺰ آﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻞ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﻧﻘﻞ ﻣﺴﺘﻨﺪ إﻟﻰ ﻗﺴﻢ آﺧﺮ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺨﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﻓﻲ طﻮر ﻣﺨﻄﻂ اﻹﻧﺴﯿﺎب‪:‬‬
‫أ( ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار اﻟﺘﻌﯿﯿﻦ ‪Allocation‬‬
‫ب( ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار وﻗﺖ اﻟﺘﺄﺧﯿﺮ ‪Delay Time‬‬
‫‪265‬‬
‫ج( ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار وﺣﺪات اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ‪Units‬‬
‫أ( ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار اﻟﺘﻌﯿﯿﻦ ‪Allocation‬‬
‫ب( ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار وﻗﺖ اﻟﺘﺄﺧﯿﺮ ‪Delay Time‬‬
‫‪266‬‬
‫ج( ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار وﺣﺪات اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ‪Units‬‬
‫اﻟﻮﺣﺪة ﺑﻠﻐﺔ ‪SIMAN‬‬

‫‪DELAY:‬‬ ‫;‪0.0,,Other‬‬
‫وﺣﺪة إﺳﻘﺎط )إﯾﺪاع( ‪Dropoff Module‬‬
‫وﺣﺪة اﻹﺳﻘﺎط ﺗﻘﻮم ﺑﺈزاﻟﺔ ﻋﺪد ﻣﻦ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت ﻣﻦ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت وﺗﺮﺳﻠﮭﻢ إﻟﻰ وﺣﺪة اﺧﺮى‬
‫ﺗﺤﺪد ﺑﺘﻮﺻﯿﻠﺔ ﻣﺨﻄﻄﺔ ‪ .Graphical Connection‬وأﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ إﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﺎﺗﮭﺎ‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺗﺤﻤﯿﻞ أرﻓﻒ ﺑﺒﻀﺎﺋﻊ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻓﺼﻞ ﻣﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪة ﺻﻮر ﻟﻺﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ ﻋﺪة أﻗﺴﺎم‪.‬‬
‫‪267‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار ﺻﻔﺎت اﻟﻌﻀﻮ‬

‫وﻧﻈﮭﺮ أﯾﻀﺎ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار ﺻﻔﺎت اﻟﻌﻀﻮ‬

‫‪DROPOFF,‬‬ ‫‪1,1:,‬‬
‫‪268‬‬
‫;*‬
‫وﺣﺪة إﻣﺴﺎك )ﻣﻨﻊ( ‪Hold Module‬‬
‫ھﺬه اﻟﻮﺣﺪة ﺗﻘﻮم ﺑﺈﻣﺴﺎك ﻛﺎﺋﻦ ﻓﻲ طﺎﺑﻮر ﻟﯿﻨﺘﻈﺮ إﺷﺎرة )ﻣﻦ وﺣﺪة اﻹﺷﺎرة ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج( أو‬
‫ﻟﯿﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﺷﺮط ﻣﻌﯿﻦ أو ﯾﻤﺴﻚ ﻷﻣﺪ ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﺤﺪد ) ﻟﻜﻲ ﯾﺰال ﺑﻌﺪ ذﻟﻚ ﺑﻮﺣﺪة إزاﻟﺔ(‪ .‬وأﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫إﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﺎﺗﮫ ھﻲ‬
‫‪ -1‬إﻧﺘﻈﺎر إﺷﺎرة ﻣﺮور ﻟﺘﺘﺤﻮل إﻟﻰ اﻟﻠﻮن اﻷﺧﻀﺮ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻣﺴﻚ ﻣﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﺣﺘﻰ ﯾﺄﻣﺮ ﺑﻔﺴﺤﮫ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﻓﺤﺺ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ آﻟﺔ أو ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺗﻜﻤﻞ اﻟﺘﺸﻐﯿﻞ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار ﻧﻮع ‪Type‬‬
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‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار ﻧﻮع اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ‪Queue Type‬‬

‫وﻧﻈﮭﺮ أﯾﻀﺎ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار ﻧﻮع‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار ﻧﻮع اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر‬
‫‪270‬‬
‫‪QUEUE,‬‬ ‫;‪Hold 1.Queue‬‬
‫‪WAIT:‬‬ ‫;‪1‬‬
‫وﺣﺪة ﺗﻄﺎﺑﻖ ‪Match Module‬‬
‫وﺣﺪة اﻟﺘﻄﺎﺑﻖ ﺗﺠﻤﻊ ﻣﻊ ﺑﻌﺾ ﻋﺪد ﻣﺤﺪد ﻣﻦ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻟﻤﻨﺘﻈﺮة ﻓﻲ طﻮاﺑﯿﺮ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﻔﻖ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺻﻔﺔ ﻣﻌﯿﻨﺔ‪ .‬ﻋﻨﺪ دﺧﻮل ﻛﺎﺋﻦ وﺣﺪة ﺗﻄﺎﺑﻖ ﯾﻮﺿﻊ ﻓﻲ واﺣﺪ ﻣﻦ ‪ 5‬طﻮاﺑﯿﺮ وذﻟﻚ ﺣﺴﺐ اﻟﻨﻘﻄﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫دﺧﻞ ﻣﻨﮭﺎ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ إﻟﻰ اﻟﻮﺣﺪة وﺗﺒﻘﻰ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ﺣﺘﻰ ﯾﺤﺼﻞ ﺗﻄﺎﺑﻖ وﻣﻦ ﺛﻢ ﺗﻐﺎدر اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫ﺗﻢ ﺗﻄﺎﺑﻘﮭﺎ اﻟﻮﺣﺪة‪ .‬وأﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ إﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﮭﺎ‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺗﺠﻤﯿﻊ ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺧﻂ إﻧﺘﺎج‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺗﺠﻤﯿﻊ ﻋﺪة ﻣﻨﺘﺠﺎت ﺣﺴﺐ طﻠﺐ زﺑﻮن‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﺗﺠﻤﻊ ﻋﺪد ﻣﻦ اﻟﺮﻛﺎب ﻓﻲ ﻣﺤﻄﺔ ﺳﯿﺎرات ﻟﻠﺴﻔﺮ ﻟﺠﺔ ﻣﻌﯿﻨﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪271‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار ﻋﺪد اﻟﺘﻄﺎﺑﻖ ‪Number of Match‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار ﻧﻮع ‪Type‬‬

‫وﺗﻈﮭﺮ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار ﻋﺪد اﻟﺘﻄﺎﺑﻖ‬
‫‪272‬‬
‫‪0$‬‬ ‫‪QUEUE,‬‬ ‫‪Match‬‬
‫;‪1.Queue1:DETACH‬‬
‫‪3$‬‬ ‫‪QUEUE,‬‬ ‫‪Match‬‬
‫;‪1.Queue2:DETACH‬‬
‫‪MATCH:‬‬ ‫‪0$:‬‬
‫;‪3$‬‬
‫وﺣﺪة إﻟﺘﻘﺎط ‪Pickup Module‬‬
‫وﺗﻘﻮم ھﺬه اﻟﻮﺣﺪة ﺑﺈﻟﺘﻘﺎط ﻋﺪد ﻣﻦ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ طﺎﺑﻮر ﻣﻌﻄﻰ ﻣﺒﺘﺪا ﻋﻨﺪ رﺗﺒﺔ ﻣﻌﯿﻨﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر‪ .‬اﻟﻮﺣﺪات اﻟﻤﻠﺘﻘﻄﺔ ﺗﻀﺎف إﻟﻰ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻗﺎدﻣﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت‪ .‬وأﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫إﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﺎﺗﮭﺎ‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺗﺠﻤﯿﻊ طﻠﺐ ﻣﻦ طﻮاﺑﯿﺮ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻮاﻗﻊ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺗﺠﻤﯿﻊ ﺻﯿﻎ ﻣﻨﺘﮭﯿﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ اﻷﻗﺴﺎم‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﺗﺠﻤﯿﻊ اﻟﺘﻼﻣﯿﺬ ﺑﺤﺎﻓﻠﺔ ﻣﺪرﺳﺔ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪273‬‬
‫‪PICKUP:‬‬ ‫;‪Queue 1,1,1‬‬
‫وﺣﺪة ﻗﺮاءة وﻛﺘﺎﺑﺔ ‪ReadWrite Module‬‬
‫وﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ھﺬه اﻟﻮﺣﺪة ﻟﻘﺮاﺋﺔ ﺑﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﻣﻦ ﻣﻠﻒ إدﺧﺎل أو ﻣﻦ ﻟﻮﺣﺔ اﻟﻤﻔﺎﺗﯿﺢ وإﺳﻨﺎد اﻟﻘﯿﻢ ﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات أو‬
‫ﺻﻔﺎت )أو أي ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ آﺧﺮ( وﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻟﻜﺘﺎﺑﺔ ﺑﯿﺎﻧﺎت إﻣﺎ ﻟﻤﻠﻒ إﺧﺮاج أو إﻟﻰ اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ‪ .‬وأﻣﺜﻠﺔ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ إﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﮭﺎ‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻗﺮاءة ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت وﺻﻮل وﻣﻐﺎدرة رﺣﻼت اﻟﻄﯿﺮان‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻹدﺧﺎل ﺑﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﻋﻦ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج أﺛﻨﺎء ﺗﺸﻐﯿﻞ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﻛﺘﺎﺑﺔ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻋﻦ طﻠﺐ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻠﻒ‪.‬‬
‫‪274‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ‪Add..‬‬
‫ﻟﻠﻨﻮع‬
‫‪275‬‬
‫وﻹﺳﻢ اﻟﺼﻔﺔ‬

‫ﻣﻊ إظﮭﺎر ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار اﻟﻨﻮع‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮارﻗﺮاءة ﻣﻦ ﻟﻮﺣﺔ اﻟﻤﻔﺎﺗﯿﺢ‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار ﻗﺮاءة ﻣﻦ ﻣﻠﻒ‬

‫;‪READ:‬‬
‫‪276‬‬
‫وﺣﺪة إطﻼق )ﻓﻚ( ‪Release Module‬‬
‫وﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ھﺬه اﻟﻮﺣﺪة ﻹطﻼق وﺣﺪات ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻮارد واﻟﺘﻲ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻣﻤﺴﻜﺔ ﺑﻜﺎﺋﻦ‪ .‬وﻗﺪ ﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻹطﻼق‬
‫ﻣﻮارد ﻣﻨﻔﺮدة أو ﻣﻦ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ‪ .‬ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻮرد ﯾﺮاد إطﻼﻗﺔ ﺗﺤﺪد إﺳﻤﮫ وﻋﺪد اﻟﻮﺣﺪات اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب‬
‫إطﻼﻗﮭﺎ‪ .‬ﻋﻨﺪ دﺧﻮل ﻛﺎﺋﻦ ھﺬه اﻟﻮﺣﺪة ﻓﺈﻧﺔ ﯾﺘﺮك اﻟﻤﻮرد اﻟﺬي أﻣﺴﻚ ﺑﮫ وأي ﻛﺎﺋﻦ ﯾﻨﺘﻈﺮ ﻓﻲ‬
‫طﺎﺑﻮر ھﺬا اﻟﻤﻮرد ﯾﺴﺘﻄﯿﻊ إﻣﺴﺎﻛﮫ ﻓﻮرا‪ .‬وأﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ إﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﮫ‬
‫‪ -1‬إﻧﺘﮭﺎء ﻣﻦ طﻠﺐ زﺑﻮن ) ﯾﻄﻠﻖ اﻟﺨﺎدم(‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻣﻐﺎدرة اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺸﻔﻰ )ﯾﻄﻠﻖ اﻷطﺒﺎء واﻟﻤﻤﺮﺿﯿﻦ وﻏﺮﻓﺔ اﻟﻌﻼج(‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ‪Add...‬‬
‫‪277‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻧﻮع ﺻﻔﺔ‬

‫ﻣﻊ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار ﻧﻮع ﺻﻔﺔ‬

‫;‪RELEASE‬‬
‫‪278‬‬
‫وﺣﺪة إزاﻟﺔ ‪Remove Module‬‬
‫وﯾﻘﻮم ﺑﺈزاﻟﺔ ﻛﺎﺋﻦ واﺣﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻮﻗﻊ ﻣﺤﺪد ﻓﻲ طﺎﺑﻮر وإرﺳﺎﻟﮫ إﻟﻰ وﺣﺪة ﻣﻌﯿﻨﺔ‪ .‬وأﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫إﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﮫ‬
‫‪ -1‬إزاﻟﺔ طﻠﺐ ﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻻﯾﺨﺘﺺ ﺑﮭﺎ ﻗﺴﻢ إﻟﻰ ﻗﺴﻢ آﺧﺮ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬إﺳﺘﺪﻋﺎء ﻣﺮﯾﺾ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺠﺮة اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻟﻌﯿﺎدة ﻣﻌﯿﻨﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬أﺧﺬ راﻛﺐ ﻣﻦ رﻛﺎب اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻋﻠﻰ ﺟﻤﯿﻊ اﻟﺮﺣﻼت ﻟﻠﺴﻔﺮ‪.‬‬

‫‪REMOVE:‬‬ ‫;‪1,Queue 1‬‬
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‫وﺣﺪة إﻣﺴﺎك )أﺧﺬ( ‪Seize Module‬‬
‫وﯾﻘﻮم ﺑﺈﻋﻄﺎء اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ وﺣﺪات ﻣﻦ ﻣﻮرد أو أﻛﺜﺮ ﺗﺒﻌﺎ ﻟﺼﻔﺔ أو ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ‪ .‬ﻋﻨﺪ دﺧﻮل ﻛﺎﺋﻦ ھﺬه اﻟﻮﺣﺪة‬
‫ﻓﺈﻧﮫ ﯾﻨﺘﻈﺮ ﻓﻲ طﺎﺑﻮر ﺣﺘﻰ ﺗﺘﻮﻓﺮ ﺟﻤﯿﻊ اﻟﻤﻮارد اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺘﻄﻠﺒﮭﺎ ﻣﺮة واﺣﺪة )ﻣﻌﺎ( ﻛﻤﺎ ان ﻧﻮع‬
‫ﺗﺨﺼﯿﺺ إﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻤﻮرد ﯾﺤﺪد ھﻨﺎ‪ .‬وﻣﻦ أﻣﺜﻠﺔ إﺳﺘﺨﺪﻣﺎﺗﮫ‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺑﺪاﯾﺔ طﻠﺐ زﺑﻮن )إﻣﺴﻚ اﻟﺨﺎدم(‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬دﺧﻮل ﻣﺴﺘﺸﻔﻰ )إﻣﺴﺎك ﻏﺮﻓﺔ وطﺒﯿﺐ اﻟﺦ(‪.‬‬
‫‪280‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار اﻟﺘﻌﯿﯿﻦ‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار اﻷﻓﻀﻠﯿﺔ ‪Priority‬‬
‫‪281‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار إﺿﺎﻓﺔ‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻧﻮع‬
‫‪282‬‬

‫ﻣﻊ إظﮭﺎر ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ اﻟﺘﻌﯿﻦ‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار اﻟﻤﻮارد‬
‫‪283‬‬

‫‪QUEUE,‬‬ ‫;‪Seize 1.Queue‬‬
‫‪SEIZE,‬‬ ‫;‪2,Other‬‬
‫‪DELAY:‬‬ ‫;‪0.0,,VA‬‬
‫وﺣﺪة ﺑﺤﺚ ‪Search Module‬‬
‫وﯾﻘﻮم ﺑﺎﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻓﻲ طﺎﺑﻮر أو ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ أو ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﻟﯿﺠﺪ رﺗﺒﺔ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ أو ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻋﺎم ) ‪ ( J‬ﯾﺤﻘﻖ‬
‫ﺷﺮط ﺑﺤﺚ ﻣﺤﺪد‪ .‬وﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻣﺜﻼ ﻓﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬اﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻋﻦ رﻗﻢ رﺗﺒﺔ ﻣﻌﯿﻨﺔ ﻓﻲ طﺎﺑﻮر‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬اﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻋﻦ ﻧﻮع ﻣﻌﯿﻦ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﻄﻊ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ أي ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺎت ﯾﺪﺧﻠﮭﺎ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ إﻋﺘﻤﺎدا ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻮﻓﺮ اﻟﻤﻮرد )ﺑﺎﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻓﻲ ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ(‪.‬‬
‫‪284‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺨﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﻓﻲ طﻮر ﺻﻔﺤﺎت اﻟﻨﺸﺮ‪:‬‬

‫ﻣﻊ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار اﻟﻨﻮع‬

‫‪0$‬‬ ‫‪SEARCH,‬‬ ‫;‪Queue 1‬‬
‫‪285‬‬
‫‪1$‬‬ ‫‪BRANCH,‬‬ ‫‪1:‬‬
‫‪If,J<>0,2$,Yes:‬‬
‫;‪Else,3$,Yes‬‬
‫‪2$‬‬ ‫‪DELAY:‬‬ ‫;‪0.0,,VA‬‬
‫‪3$‬‬ ‫‪DELAY:‬‬ ‫;‪0.0,,VA‬‬
‫وﺣﺪة اﻹﺷﺎرة ‪Signal Module‬‬
‫‪) Wait‬أﻧﻈﺮ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ‬ ‫وﯾﻘﻮم ﺑﺈرﺳﺎل ﻗﯿﻤﺔ إﺷﺎرة ﻟﻜﻞ وﺣﺪة إﻧﺘﻈﺎر ‪Module‬‬
‫‪ (Blocks‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج وﯾﻄﻠﻖ اﻛﺒﺮ ﻋﺪد ﻣﻦ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻟﻤﺤﺪد‪ .‬وﻣﻦ إﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﺎﺗﮫ‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ أﻧﻤﺎط اﻟﺴﯿﺮ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﻘﺎطﻊ طﺮق ) ﯾﺆﺷﺮ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﺘﺤﻮل اﻟﻀﻮء ﻟﻸﺧﻀﺮ(‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬اﻟﺘﺄﺷﯿﺮ ﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻟﻜﻲ ﯾﻜﻤﻞ طﻠﺐ ﻛﺎن ﯾﻨﺘﻈﺮ ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﻏﯿﺎر‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺨﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﻓﻲ طﻮر ﺻﻔﺤﺔ ﻧﺸﺮ‪:‬‬

‫‪SIGNAL:‬‬ ‫;‪1‬‬
‫‪286‬‬
‫وﺣﺪة ﺗﺨﺰﯾﻦ ‪Store Module‬‬
‫وﯾﻀﯿﻒ ﻛﺎﺋﻦ إﻟﻰ ﻣﺨﺰن‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ اﻧﮫ ﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻟﻌﺮض ﺻﻮر ﻣﺘﺤﺮﻛﺔ ﻟﻠﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت ﺧﻼل اﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ ﻓﻲ‬
‫وﺣﺪات اﺧﺮى ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ إﻟﻰ ﺟﻤﻊ إﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺎت ﻋﻦ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت‪ .‬وأﻣﺜﻠﺔ إﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﮫ‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻋﺮض ﺻﻮر ﻣﺘﺤﺮﻛﺔ ﻋﻦ ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﺗﻤﺮ ﺑﻌﺪة ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺎت‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺗﺘﺒﻊ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ داﺧﻞ ﺑﻘﺎﻟﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪287‬‬

‫‪STORE:‬‬ ‫;‪Storage 1‬‬
‫وﺣﺪة إﺧﺮج ﻣﺨﺰون ‪Unstore Module‬‬
‫ﯾﻘﻮم ﺑﺈﺧﺮاج ﻛﺎﺋﻦ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺨﺰن ﺳﺒﻖ أن دﺧﻠﮫ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻟﻮﺣﺪة ﻣﺨﺰن‪ .‬وﻟﮫ ﻋﻜﺲ إﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﺎت‬
‫اﻟﻮﺣﺪة ﻣﺨﺰن‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺨﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﻟﻄﻮر ﻣﺨﻄﻂ اﻹﻧﺴﯿﺎب‪:‬‬
‫‪288‬‬

‫;‪UNSTORE‬‬
‫‪289‬‬
‫وﺣﺪات اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﻄﻮرة‪:‬‬
‫وﺣﺪة اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﻄﻮرة ‪Advanced Set Module‬‬
‫وﯾﺤﺪد ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺎت اﻟﻄﻮاﺑﯿﺮ ‪ Queue Sets‬وﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺎت اﻟﻤﺨﺎزن ‪ Storage Sets‬وأي ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺎت‬

‫اﺧﺮى ﻛﺎ أﻧﮭﺎ ﺗﻌﺮف أﻋﻀﺎء ھﺬة اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺎت‪ .‬واﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ‪ Set‬ﺗﻌﺮف ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ‪ Group‬ﻣﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ اﻟﻤﺘﺸﺎﺑﮭﺔ واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺴﺘﺪﻋﻰ ﺑﺈﺳﻢ ﻣﺸﺘﺮك و ﻣﺆﺷﺮ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ‪ .Set Index‬ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺎت‬
‫اﻟﻄﻮاﺑﯿﺮ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ أن ﺗﻌﺮف داﺧﻞ اﻟﻮﺣﺪة أﻣﺴﻚ ‪ Seize‬أو أي وﺣﺪة ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻮع اﻟﺬي ﯾﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻊ اﻟﻤﻮاد‬
‫‪ .Material Handling Type Module‬ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺎت اﻟﻤﺨﺎزن ﯾﻤﻜﻦ أن ﺗﻌﺮف ﻓﻲ وﺣﺪات ﺗﺨﺰﯾﻦ‬
‫‪ Store‬وإﺧﺮاج ﻣﺨﺰون ‪.Unstore‬‬
‫وﺣﺪة ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ‪Expression Module‬‬
‫وھﺬه اﻟﻮﺣﺪة ﺗﻌﺮف ﺗﻌﺎﺑﯿﺮ ‪ Expressions‬واﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻟﮭﺎ‪ .‬وﺗﺴﺘﺪﻋﻰ اﻟﺘﻌﺎﺑﯿﺮ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‬
‫ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام أﺳﻤﺎﺋﮭﺎ‪ .‬ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﻌﺮﯾﻒ اﻟﺘﻌﺎﺑﯿﺮ ﻛﺼﻔﻮف ‪ Arrays‬ذات ﺑﻌﺪ أو ﺑﻌﺪﯾﻦ‪ .‬وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﺸﻜﯿﻞ‬
‫اﻟﺘﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﺗﺮاﻛﯿﺐ ﻣﻦ اﻷﻋﺪاد اﻟﺼﯿﺤﺔ واﻷﻋﺪاد اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﯿﺔ وأﺳﻤﺎء رﻣﻮز وﺗﻮزﯾﻌﺎت‬
‫إﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ )ﻣﺜﻞ )‪ (NORM(10,2‬وﻋﻤﻠﯿﺎت ﺣﺴﺎﺑﯿﺔ )ﻣﺜﻞ ‪ +‬و*( وأﻗﻮاس وﻋﻤﻠﯿﺎت ﻣﻨﻄﻘﯿﺔ )ﻣﺜﻞ <‬
‫و ‪ (.GT.‬وﺻﻔﺎت وﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮات‪ .‬ﯾﻤﻜﻦ إﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ آﺧﺮ وﻟﻜﻦ ﻻﯾﺴﻤﺢ ﻟﻠﺘﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﻓﻲ‬
‫إﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻧﻔﺴﮫ‪.‬‬
‫‪290‬‬
‫وﺣﺪة ﻓﺸﻞ ‪Failure Module‬‬
‫وﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻣﻊ اﻟﻤﻮارد‪ .‬ﻋﻨﺪ ﺣﺪوث ﻓﺸﻞ ﻓﺈن اﻟﻤﻮرد ﻛﻠﮫ ﯾﻔﺸﻞ‪ .‬وھﻲ ﻣﺼﻤﻤﺔ ﻟﻺﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻣﻊ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻮارد أﺣﺎدﯾﺔ اﻟﺴﻌﺔ أو ﻣﺘﻌﺪدة اﻟﺴﻌﺔ واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻔﺸﻞ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎﺗﮭﺎ ﻣﻌﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻔﺲ اﻟﻮﻗﺖ‪.‬‬
‫وﺣﺪة ﻣﻠﻒ ‪File Module‬‬
‫وﯾﺠﺐ أن ﯾﻜﻮن ﻣﻮﺟﻮدا ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﺮاد إﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻣﻠﻒ ﺧﺎرﺟﻲ ﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ اﻟﻮﺣﺪة ‪ .ReadWrite‬وھﺬه‬
‫اﻟﻮﺣﺪة ﺗﺤﺪد إﺳﻢ اﻟﻤﻠﻒ اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻲ وطﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل واﻟﺘﺸﻜﯿﻞ وﺧﻮاص اﻟﻤﻠﻒ اﻻﺧﺮى‪.‬‬
‫وﺣﺪة ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ‪StateSet Module‬‬
‫وﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻟﺘﺤﺪﯾﺪ ﺣﺎﻻت ﻣﻮرد أو ﻋﺪد ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻮارد‪ .‬واﻟﺤﺎﻻت ﯾﻤﻜﻦ أن ﺗﻜﻮن ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻄﺔ ﺑﺤﺎﻟﺔ ذاﺗﯿﺔ‬
‫‪ Autostate‬أو ﺑﺤﺎﻻت ﺟﺪﯾﺪة ﻟﻠﻤﻮرد‪ .‬وﺣﺪة ‪ Resource‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺎت اﻷﺳﺎﺳﯿﺔ ﺗﺴﺘﺪﻋﻲ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ واﻟﺘﻲ ﺳﻮف ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﺑﻤﻮرد ﻣﻌﯿﻦ‪.‬‬
‫وﺣﺪة إﺣﺼﺎء ‪Statistic Module‬‬
‫وﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻟﺘﺤﺪﯾﺪ إﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺎت إﺿﺎﻓﯿﺔ ﻟﻜﻲ ﺗﺠﻤﻊ اﺛﻨﺎء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪.‬‬

‫وﺣﺪة ﺗﺨﺰﯾﻦ ‪Storage Module‬‬
‫وﯾﻌﺮف إﺳﻢ ﻣﺨﺰن‪ .‬واﻟﻤﺨﺎزن ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﺗﻮﻟﺪ ذاﺗﯿﺎ ﺑﺄي وﺣﺪة ﺗﺴﺘﺪﻋﯿﮭﺎ‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﻮﺣﺪات اﻟﻤﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ ‪:Advanced Modules‬‬

‫ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﺑﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ‪ Arena‬وﺣﺪات اﺧﺮي )ھﺬة اﻟﻮﺣﺪات ﻓﻲ اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﺔ ﺗﺮاﻛﯿﺐ ﻟﻐﺔ ‪ SIMAN‬واﻟﺘﻲ ھﻲ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺤﺮك اﻟﺨﻔﻲ ﻓﻲ ‪ (Arena‬ﻣﺜﻞ وﺣﺪات اﻹﻧﺘﻘﺎل اﻟﻤﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ ‪Advanced Transfer Modules‬‬
‫‪291‬‬
‫ووﺣﺪات اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ ‪ ) Blocks‬ﻣﻦ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎت ﻟﻐﺔ ‪(SIMAN‬‬
‫ووﺣﺪات اﻟﻌﻨﺎﺻﺮ ‪ ) Elements‬ﻣﻦ ﻣﻜﻮﻧﺎت ﻟﻐﺔ ‪(SIMAN‬‬
‫‪292‬‬
‫ووﺣﺪات اﻟﺤﺰم ‪Packaging‬‬
‫وﻏﯿﺮھﺎ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻮﺣﺪات اﻟﻤﺘﻘﺪﻣﺔ ﺟﺪا‪ .‬ﺳﻮف ﻧﺸﺮح أي وﺣﺪة ﻧﺤﺘﺎﺟﮭﺎ ﻣﻦ ھﺬه اﻟﻮﺣﺪات ﻋﻨﺪ اﻟﻠﺰوم‪.‬‬
‫‪293‬‬
‫ﺣﺎﻻت دراﺳﺔ ‪:Case Studies‬‬
‫طﺎﺑﻮر اﻟﺼﻒ اﻟﻮاﺣﺪ‪:‬‬
‫‪Arrivals‬‬ ‫‪Cumulative‬‬
‫)‪(Minutes‬‬ ‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪Probability‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.125‬‬ ‫‪0.125‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.125‬‬ ‫‪0.250‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.125‬‬ ‫‪0.375‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.125‬‬ ‫‪0.500‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0.125‬‬ ‫‪0.625‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪0.125‬‬ ‫‪0.750‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪0.125‬‬ ‫‪0.875‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪0.125‬‬ ‫‪1.000‬‬
‫أزﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ‪ Sevice times‬ﺗﺘﺮاوح ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 1‬و ‪ 6‬دﻗﺎﺋﻖ ﺑﺈﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻت ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪294‬‬
‫‪Service Time‬‬ ‫‪Cumulative‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬ ‫‪0.30‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.30‬‬ ‫‪0.60‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.85‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬ ‫‪0.95‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﺑﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة وﺻﻮل وﺧﺪﻣﺔ ‪ 500‬زﺑﻮﻧﺎ‪.‬‬

‫ﺑﻨﺎء اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﺑﺴﯿﻂ ﺟﺪا‪ ،‬زﺑﻮن ﯾﺘﺠﮫ ﻟﻠﺼﺮاف وﯾﻠﺘﺤﻖ ﺑﻄﺎﺑﻮر‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ﺧﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫أ‪ -‬اﻟﺼﺮاف ﺧﺎﻟﻲ‪ :‬ﯾﺒﺪأ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮة وﯾﻨﺼﺮف ﺑﻌﺪ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ ﺧﺪﻣﺘﮫ‪.‬‬
‫ب‪ -‬اﻟﺼﺮاف ﻣﺸﻐﻮل‪ :‬ﯾﻨﺘﻈﺮ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺧﻠﻮ اﻟﺨﺎدم ﺛﻢ ﯾﺴﺘﻠﻢ اﻟﺨﺎدم وﯾﺒﺪأ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ وﯾﻨﺼﺮف ﺑﻌﺪ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ‬
‫ﺧﺪﻣﺘﮫ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ﻏﯿﺮ ﺧﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫أ‪ -‬ﯾﻠﺘﺤﻖ ﺑﻨﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر وﯾﻨﺘﻈﺮ ﺣﺘﻰ ﯾﺼﺒﺢ اﻷول ﻓﻲ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر وﯾﺒﺎﺷﺮ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ وﯾﻨﺼﺮف ﺑﻌﺪ‬
‫ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ ﺧﺪﻣﺘﮫ‪.‬‬
‫ب‪ -‬ﻻﯾﻤﻜﻦ أن ﯾﻐﺎدر اﻟﻨﻈﺎم إﻻ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ ﺧﺪﻣﺘﮫ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﺤﺘﺎج إﻟﻰ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ زﺑﺎﺋﻦ وذﻟﻚ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪ Create‬أﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ وأﺳﺤﺐ أﯾﻘﻮﻧﺔ ‪Create‬‬
‫‪295‬‬
‫اﻟﺨﺎدم ﯾﻤﺜﻞ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪Process‬‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ اﻟﺨﻂ اﻟﻮاﺻﻞ ﺑﯿﻨﮭﻤﺎ واﻟﺬي ﯾﺤﺪث ﺗﻠﻘﺎﺋﯿﺎ )ﺗﺄﻛﺪ ﻣﻦ أن اﻟﺘﻮﺻﯿﻞ اﻟﺬاﺗﻲ ﻣﺨﺘﺎر ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫وإﻻ ﻗﻢ ﺑﺠﻤﯿﻊ اﻹﺧﺘﯿﺎرات ﻛﻤﺎھﻮ ﻣﻮﺿﺢ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﻋﻼه(‬

‫ﺛﻢ ﯾﻨﺼﺮف اﻟﺰﺑﻮن وﯾﺨﺮج ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ‪Dispose‬‬
‫‪296‬‬
‫اﻵن ﻧﺪﺧﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻋﻦ طﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ واﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ واﻟﺨﺮوج ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪.‬‬
‫أﺧﺘﺎر ‪ Create‬وأﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ ﻣﺮﺗﯿﻦ ﻓﺘﻈﮭﺮ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺧﻮاﺻﮭﺎ‬
‫ﺗﻌﺒﺊ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ‪.‬‬

‫ﻻﺣﻆ ﻓﻲ ﺣﻮار "ﻧﻮع" ‪ Type‬أﺧﺘﺮﻧﺎ "ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ" ‪ Expression‬وﻓﻲ ﺣﻮار "ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ" اﺧﺘﺮﻧﺎ‬
‫)…‪DISC(P1,V1,‬‬
‫واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻌﻨﻲ أن اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ ﻷزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل ھﻮ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﻨﻔﺼﻞ ﻣﻌﻄﻰ ﺑﺠﺪول و اﻟﺰوج ‪P1,V1‬‬
‫ھﻮ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻷوﻟﻰ ﻟﺪاﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺮاﻛﻤﻲ واﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻷوﻟﻰ اﻟﻤﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ "زﻣﻦ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻮﺻﻮل" واﻟﻤﺪﺧﻞ ھﻮ‬
‫‪DISC( F‬‬ ‫) ‪( x1 ) , x1, F ( x2 ) , x2 ,..., F ( xn ) , xn‬‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ ﺑﻌﺪ اﻹﻧﺘﮭﺎء ﻣﻦ إدﺧﺎل اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت وﻋﻨﻤﺎ ﺗﻜﻮن ‪ Create‬ﻣﺨﺘﺎرة ﯾﻈﮭﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺻﻔﺤﺔ اﻟﻨﺸﺮ ھﺬه‬
‫اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‬
‫‪297‬‬
‫ﻧﺴﺘﻄﯿﻊ ﻣﻦ ھﻨﺎ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻟﺨﻮاص إذا أردﻧﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﺨﺘﺎر ‪ Process‬وﻧﻈﮭﺮ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺧﻮاﺻﮭﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﻣﺮﺗﯿﻦ‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ ﻓﻲ ﺣﻮار "ﻣﻮارد" ‪ Resources‬ﺿﻐﻄﻨﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ …‪ Add‬ﻓﻈﮭﺮت اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة‬
‫وﻣﻠﺌﻨﺎ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻛﻤﺎھﻮ ﻣﻮﺿﺢ‪.‬ﺛﻢ ﻧﻀﻐﻂ ‪ OK‬ﺛﻢ ‪.OK‬‬

‫ﻻﺣﻆ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺻﻔﺤﺔ اﻟﻨﺸﺮ )ﻗﺴﻤﺖ ﺟﺰﺋﯿﻦ ﻟﻠﺘﻮﺿﯿﺢ(‬
‫‪298‬‬
‫ﻧﺴﺘﻄﯿﻊ ﻣﻦ ھﻨﺎ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ أو ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻞ أي ﺧﺎﺻﯿﺔ ﻧﺸﺎء‪.‬‬
‫وأﺧﯿﺮا ﻧﺨﺘﺎر ‪ Dispose‬وﻧﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ ﻣﺮﺗﯿﻦ ﻓﺘﻈﮭﺮ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺧﻮاﺻﮭﺎ‬
‫وﺻﻔﺤﺔ اﻟﻨﺸﺮ‬
‫اﻵن اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﺟﺎھﺰ ﻟﻺﺟﺮاء‪ .‬ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻷدوات ﻧﺨﺘﺎر ‪ Run‬و ‪Setup‬‬
‫ﻓﺘﻈﺮ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﻮار اﻟﺘﺠﮭﯿﺰ‬
‫‪299‬‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﻣﻌﺎﻟﻢ اﻟﺘﻜﺮار ‪ Replication Parameters‬ﻧﺪﺧﻞ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺘﻜﺮارات ‪Number of‬‬
‫‪ Replications‬وھﻨﺎ أﺧﺘﺮﻧﺎ ‪ 10‬ﺗﻜﺮارات وطﻮل اﻟﺘﻜﺮار ‪ 480 Replication Length‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ وﻋﺪد‬

‫اﻟﺴﺎﻋﺎت ﻓﻲ اﻟﯿﻮم ‪ 24‬ﺳﺎﻋﺔ وﻣﺪة اﻟﺘﺴﺨﯿﻦ ‪ 0.0‬وﻧﺒﻘﻲ ﺑﻘﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻌﺎﻟﻢ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻮاﻓﺬ اﻷﺧﺮي ﻛﻤﺎ ھﻲ‬
‫‪.Default Values‬‬
‫ﺑﺈﺧﺘﯿﺎر ‪ Run‬ﺛﻢ ‪ Go‬ﺗﺠﺮي اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺣﺘﻰ اﻹﻧﺘﮭﺎء وﯾﻈﮭﺮ‬
‫ﻟﻜﻲ ﻧﺸﺎھﺪ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ ﻧﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪Yes‬‬
‫‪300‬‬
‫اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ اﻟﺬي ﺗﻈﮭﺮه ‪ Arena‬ﻣﻔﺼﻞ ) ﯾﺤﻮي ھﻨﺎ ‪ 9‬ﺻﻔﺤﺎت ( وﺳﻮف ﻧﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺿﺮة‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ اﻟﻌﻤﻮد اﻷﯾﺴﺮ واﻟﺬي ﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻟﻠﺘﺠﻮال ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ‪.‬‬
‫وھﺬة ﻟﻘﻄﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‬
‫‪301‬‬
PROJECT, "mm1","amb",,,No,Yes,Yes,Yes,No,No,No;
VARIABLES:
FinishedService.NumberOut,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Excl
ude"):
Customers.NumberOut,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):
Service.NumberIn,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):
Service.NumberOut,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):
Service.WIP,CLEAR(System),CATEGORY("Exclude-
Exclude");
QUEUES: Service.Queue,FIFO,,AUTOSTATS(Yes,,);
302
Picture.Green Ball:
Picture.Blue Page:
Picture.Telephone:
Picture.Blue Ball:
Picture.EMail:
Picture.Bike:
Picture.Report:
Picture.Van:
Picture.Widgets:
Picture.Envelope:
Picture.Fax:
Picture.Truck:
Picture.Letter:
Picture.Box:
Picture.Woman:
Picture.Package:
Picture.Man:
Picture.Diskette:
Picture.Boat:
Picture.Red Page:
Picture.Green Page:
Picture.Red Ball;
RESOURCES:
service1,Capacity(1),,,COST(0.0,0.0,0.0),CATEGORY(Resource
s),,AUTOSTATS(Yes,,);
REPLICATE,
303
ENTITIES:
Arrival,Picture.Report,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,AUTOSTATS(Y
es,,);
SETS: Servers,service1;
‫ﻣﻠﻒ اﻟﻨﻮذج‬
;
;
;
2$ CREATE,
1,MinutesToBaseTime(0.0),Arrival:MinutesToBaseTime(EXPO(1
)),100:NEXT(3$);
3$ ASSIGN:
Customers.NumberOut=Customers.NumberOut + 1:NEXT(0$);
;
;
;
0$ ASSIGN:
Service.NumberIn=Service.NumberIn + 1:
Service.WIP=Service.WIP+1;
9$ QUEUE, Service.Queue;
8$ SEIZE, 2,VA:
SELECT(Servers,POR,
),2:NEXT(7$);
7$ DELAY:
MinutesToBaseTime(Uniform(.5,1.5)),,VA;
6$ RELEASE: SELECT(Servers,LAST),2;
304
54$ ASSIGN:
Service.NumberOut=Service.NumberOut + 1:
Service.WIP=Service.WIP-
1:NEXT(1$);
;
;
;
1$ ASSIGN:
FinishedService.NumberOut=FinishedService.NumberOut + 1;
57$ DISPOSE: Yes
305
‫أﺣﻤﺪ وﺑﻜﺮ ﻟﻠﺨﺪﻣﺔ اﻟﺴﺮﯾﻌﺔ‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.40‬‬ ‫‪0.65‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬ ‫‪0.85‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.30‬‬ ‫‪0.30‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.58‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.83‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0.17‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬
‫ﺟﺪول ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ أزﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﺒﻜﺮ‪:‬‬

‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.60‬‬
‫‪306‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬ ‫‪0.80‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻟﻤﻌﺮﻓﺔ أداﺋﮫ‪.‬‬

‫ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﻧﻤﺬﺟﺔ ھﺬا اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﺑﻌﺪة طﺮق‪ .‬أﻵﺗﻲ ﻧﻤﻮذج ﻣﻘﺘﺮح وﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﻣﻠﺊ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻧﻮاﻓﺬ ﺧﺼﺎﺋﺺ ﺟﻤﯿﻊ اﻟﻮﺣﺪات‬
‫وﻧﺠﺰﺋﮫ ﻟﻠﺘﻮﺿﯿﺢ‬
‫ﺗﻤﺮﯾﻦ‪ :‬ﺣﺎول ﻧﻤﺬﺟﺔ ھﺬا اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﺑﻌﺪة طﺮق اﺧﺮى وﻗﺎرن ﺑﯿﻨﮭﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪307‬‬
PROJECT, "Unnamed
Project","amb",,,No,Yes,Yes,Yes,No,No,No;
ATTRIBUTES: Ahmad Service.Busy;
VARIABLES: Wait
Line.NumberOut,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):
Ahmad Available?.NumberOut
True,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):
Bakur
Customers
Ahmad Available?.NumberOut
Customers
Leave.NumberOut,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):
Ahmad
Bakur
Wait
Line.NumberIn,CLEAR(Statistics),CATEGORY("Exclude"):
Wait
Line.WIP,CLEAR(System),CATEGORY("Exclude-Exclude"):
Bakur
Service.WIP,CLEAR(System),CATEGORY("Exclude-Exclude"):
Ahmad
Ahmad
Service.WIP,CLEAR(System),CATEGORY("Exclude-Exclude");
308
QUEUES: Wait Line.Queue,FIFO,,AUTOSTATS(Yes,,);
Picture.Green Ball:
Picture.Blue Page:
Picture.Telephone:
Picture.Blue Ball:
Picture.EMail:
Picture.Bike:
Picture.Report:
Picture.Van:
Picture.Widgets:
Picture.Envelope:
Picture.Fax:
Picture.Truck:
Picture.Letter:
Picture.Box:
Picture.Woman:
Picture.Package:
Picture.Man:
Picture.Diskette:
Picture.Boat:
Picture.Red Page:
Picture.Green Page:
Picture.Red Ball;
RESOURCES:
Ahmad,Capacity(1),,,COST(0.0,0.0,0.0),CATEGORY(Resources),
,AUTOSTATS(Yes,,):
Bakur,Capacity(1),,,COST(0.0,0.0,0.0),CATEGORY(Resources),
,AUTOSTATS(Yes,,);
309
REPLICATE,
ENTITIES:
Customr,Picture.Van,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,AUTOSTATS(Yes,
,);
;
;
;
5$ CREATE,
1,MinutesToBaseTime(0.0),Customr:MinutesToBaseTime(EXPO(3)
):NEXT(6$);
;
;
;
0$ ASSIGN: Wait Line.NumberIn=Wait
Line.NumberIn + 1:
Wait Line.WIP=Wait
Line.WIP+1;
12$ QUEUE, Wait Line.Queue;
11$ SEIZE, 2,NVA:
Ahmad,1:
Bakur,1:NEXT(10$);
310
10$ DELAY: 0.016666666666667,,NVA;
57$ ASSIGN: Wait Line.NumberOut=Wait
Line.NumberOut + 1:
Wait Line.WIP=Wait Line.WIP-
1:NEXT(1$);
;
;
;
1$ BRANCH, 1:
If,Ahmad
Service.Busy==0,60$,Yes:
Else,61$,Yes;
60$ ASSIGN: Ahmad Available?.NumberOut
True=Ahmad Available?.NumberOut True + 1:NEXT(2$);
61$ ASSIGN: Ahmad Available?.NumberOut

False=Ahmad Available?.NumberOut False + 1:NEXT(3$);
;
;
;
2$ ASSIGN: Ahmad Service.NumberIn=Ahmad
Service.NumberIn + 1:
Ahmad Service.WIP=Ahmad
Service.WIP+1;
63$ DELAY: MinutesToBaseTime(NORM( 3 ,
0.5 )),,VA;
62$ RELEASE: Ahmad,1;
311
110$ ASSIGN: Ahmad Service.NumberOut=Ahmad
Service.NumberOut + 1:
Ahmad Service.WIP=Ahmad
Service.WIP-1:NEXT(4$);
;
;
;
Leave.NumberOut=Customers Leave.NumberOut + 1;
113$ DISPOSE: Yes;
;
;
;
3$ ASSIGN: Bakur Service.NumberIn=Bakur
Service.NumberIn + 1:
Bakur Service.WIP=Bakur
Service.WIP+1;
115$ DELAY: MinutesToBaseTime(NORM( 4 , 1
)),,VA;
114$ RELEASE: Bakur,1;
162$ ASSIGN: Bakur Service.NumberOut=Bakur
Service.NumberOut + 1:
Bakur Service.WIP=Bakur
Service.WIP-1:NEXT(4$);
312
‫ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﻨﻚ‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﺴﺘﻌﺮض ﻧﻤﻮذج ﺑﺴﯿﻂ ﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﺗﺘﻢ ﻓﯿﮫ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ أﻧﺸﻄﺔ ھﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼت ﺳﺤﺐ ﻧﻘﺪ آﻟﻲ ‪ATM Transactions‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺎت ﺻﺮاﻓﺔ ‪Teller Operation‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼت ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺴﯿﺎرة ‪"Drive Thru" Transactions‬‬
‫ﺗﺠﻤﻊ إﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺎت ﻋﻦ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﻤﻨﺘﻈﺮﯾﻦ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ وزﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‪ :‬ﻣﻨﻈﺮ ﻋﺎم‬
‫ﺟﺰء ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼت اﻟﺴﯿﺎرات‬
‫ﺟﺰء ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺎت اﻟﺼﺮاﻓﺔ‬
‫‪313‬‬
‫ﺟﺰء اﻟﺴﺤﺐ اﻵﻟﻲ‬
‫ﻧﻼﺣﻆ ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج وﺣﺪﺗﯿﻦ ﺟﺪﯾﺪة ﻣﻦ وﺣﺪات اﻟﻨﻘﻞ اﻟﻤﺘﻄﻮرة ‪Advanced Transfer Mdules‬‬
‫ھﻤﺎ ‪ Station Module‬و ‪.Route Module‬‬
‫وﺣﺪة ﻣﺤﻄﺔ ‪Station Module‬‬
‫‪314‬‬
‫وھﺬه اﻟﻮﺣﺪة ﺗﻌﺮف ﻣﺤﻄﺔ )أو ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﺤﻄﺎت( واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻨﻤﺬج ﻣﻜﺎن ﻣﺎدي أو ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻲ ﺣﯿﺚ ﺗﺤﺪث‬
‫اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺔ‪ .‬وﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺗﻌﺮﯾﻔﮫ ﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺤﻄﺎت ﻓﮭﺬا ﺑﺪﯾﮭﯿﺎ ﯾﻌﺮف ﻋﺪة أﻣﺎﻛﻦ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻠﯿﺎت‪.‬‬
‫وﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻏﺎﻟﺒﺎ ﻓﻲ أﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ آﻻت اﻟﺨﺮاطﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻧﻮاﻓﺬ ﺷﺮاء ﺗﺬاﻛﺮ ﻣﻠﻌﺐ ﻛﺮة ﻗﺪم‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﻣﻄﺎﻋﻢ ﻓﻲ ﺳﻮق ﻣﺮﻛﺰي‪.‬‬
‫وﻧﻮاﻓﺬ ﺧﻮاﺻﮭﺎ‪:‬‬
‫ﻣﻠﻒ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ ﺑﻠﻐﺔ ‪SIMAN‬‬

‫‪STATIONS:‬‬ ‫;‪Station 1‬‬
‫‪315‬‬
‫ﻣﻠﻒ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﺑﻠﻐﺔ ‪SIMAN‬‬
‫;‬
‫;‬ ‫‪Model statements for module:‬‬ ‫‪Station 1‬‬
‫;‬
‫‪0$‬‬ ‫‪STATION,‬‬ ‫;‪Station 1‬‬

‫‪3$‬‬ ‫‪DELAY:‬‬ ‫;‪0.0,,VA‬‬
‫وﺣﺪة ﻣﺴﺎر ‪Route Module‬‬
‫وﺗﻘﻮم ﺑﻨﻘﻞ ﻛﺎﺋﻦ إﻟﻰ ﻣﺤﻄﺔ ﻣﻌﯿﻨﺔ أو اﻟﻰ اﻟﻤﺤﻄﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﻄﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺳﺘﺰار ﺑﺎﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ‪.‬‬
‫وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ زﻣﻦ ﺗﺄﺧﺮ ﻟﻺﻧﺘﻘﺎل‪.‬‬
‫وإﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﺎﺗﮭﺎ ﺗﻜﻮن ﻣﺜﻼ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬إرﺳﺎل ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ طﻮر اﻟﺘﺼﻨﯿﻊ إﻟﻰ ﻣﺤﻄﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺎت ﺗﺒﻌﺎ ﻟﻘﺴﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﺴﺎر‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬إرﺳﺎل زﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻄﻌﻢ ﻟﻄﺎوﻟﺔ ﻣﻌﯿﻨﺔ‪.‬‬
‫وﻧﻮاﻓﺬ ﺧﻮاﺻﮭﺎ‬
‫ﻣﻠﻒ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ ﺑﻠﻐﺔ ‪SIMAN‬‬
‫‪316‬‬
STATIONS: Station 1;
SIMAN ‫ﻣﻠﻒ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﺑﻠﻐﺔ‬

;
; Model statements for module: Route 1
;
0$ ROUTE: 0.,Station 1;
317
‫ﻟﻤﺜﺎل اﻟﺒﻨﻚ ﻧﺴﺘﻌﺮض ﺧﻮاص اﻟﻮﺣﺪات ﻛﺎﻵﺗﻲ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﯾﺤﻮي ﺛﻼﺛﺔ وﺣﺪات ‪ Create‬ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺧﻮاﺻﮭﺎ‬
‫وﺛﻼﺛﺔ وﺣﺪات ‪Process‬‬
‫وﺗﻔﺼﯿﻞ ﻣﻮاردھﺎ ﻛﺎﻵﺗﻲ‬
‫‪318‬‬
‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ‪ 8‬ﻣﺤﻄﺎت ‪) Station Module‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﻄﻮرة( ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺧﻮاﺻﮭﺎ‬
‫و ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ‪ 6‬ﻣﺴﺎرات ‪) Route Module‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﻄﻮرة( ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺧﻮاﺻﮭﺎ‬
‫ووﺣﺪﺗﯿﻦ ‪ Dispose‬ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺧﻮاﺻﮭﺎ‬
‫‪319‬‬
‫ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼت ﻓﻲ ‪Arena‬‬
‫ﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼت ‪ Input Analyser‬واﻟﺬي ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﻣﻊ ‪ ) Arena‬وﻟﻜﻦ ﯾﻌﻤﻞ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻼ‬
‫ﻋﻨﮭﺎ( ﻟﺘﻄﺒﯿﻖ ﺗﻮزﯾﻌﺎت إﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﺧﺎﻣﺔ وذﻟﻚ ﻹﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﮭﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ اﻟﻜﻤﯿﺔ‬
‫‪) Quatitative Modeling‬وﺗﺴﻤﻰ اﯾﻀﺎ ﻧﻤﺬﺟﺔ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻤﺪﺧﻠﺔ ‪.( Input-Data Modeling‬‬
‫ﺗﻮﺿﻊ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻠﻒ ﻧﺼﻲ ‪ ASCII File‬ﺗﻔﺼﻞ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻛﻞ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ واﺧﺮى ﻓﺮاغ وﯾﻤﻜﻦ‬
‫إدﺧﺎل اي ﻋﺪد ﻣﻦ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﻓﻲ اﻟﺴﻄﺮ اﻟﻮاﺣﺪ ﻛﻤﺎ ان اﻷﺳﻄﺮ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﺗﻜﻮن ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﺘﺴﺎوﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻋﺪد ﺑﯿﺎﻧﺎﺗﮭﺎ‪ .‬ﺧﺰن اﻟﻤﻠﻒ ﺑﺈﻣﺘﺪاد ‪ *.dst‬وﺷﻐﻞ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼت ﻣﻦ داﺧﻞ ‪ Arena‬أو ﻣﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺠﻠﺪ اﻟﺬي ﯾﺤﻮي ‪Arena‬‬
‫ﻓﺘﻈﮭﺮ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة إدﺧﺎل‬ ‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ اﻟﺮﺋﯿﺴﺔ أﺧﺘﺎر ‪ File‬ﺛﻢ ‪ New‬أو أﺿﻐﻂ‬
‫‪320‬‬
‫ﺛﻢ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﻠﺌﻤﺔ اﻟﺮﺋﯿﺴﺔ اﺧﺘﺎر ‪ File‬ﺛﻢ ‪ Data File‬ﺛﻢ … ‪Use Existing‬‬
‫ﻣﺘﻈﮭﺮ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة إﺧﺘﯿﺎر اﻟﻤﻠﻒ‬
‫‪321‬‬
‫اﺧﺘﺎر اﻟﻤﻠﻒ اﻟﺬي ﯾﺤﻮي اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت واﻟﺬي ﻟﮫ اﻹﻣﺘﺪاد ‪ dst‬ﺛﻢ اﺿﻐﻂ ‪ Open‬ﻓﯿﻨﺘﺞ‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ أن اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺷﻜﻞ ﻣﺪرج ﺗﻜﺮاري ﻟﻠﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ذاﺗﯿﺎ ﺑﻌﺪد ‪ 31‬ﻓﺌﺔ )ھﺬا ھﻮ اﻟﻌﺪد اﻹﻓﺘﺮاﺿﻲ(‪.‬‬
‫اﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ Fit‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ اﻟﺮﺋﯿﺴﺔ ﺛﻢ ‪Fit All‬‬
‫‪322‬‬
‫ھﺬا ﺳﯿﺠﻌﻞ اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﯾﻄﺒﻖ ﻛﻞ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻌﺎت اﻟﻤﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ ذاﺗﯿﺎ ﺛﻢ ﯾﺨﺘﺎر اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺬي ﯾﻌﻄﻲ أﻓﻀﻞ‬
‫ﺗﻄﺎﺑﻖ وذﻟﻚ ﺑﺈﺟﺮاء إﺧﺘﺒﺎري ‪ Chi Square Test‬و ‪ K-S Test‬ﯾﻤﻜﻦ إﺧﺘﯿﺎر ‪ K-S Test‬ﻣﻦ‪:‬‬
‫ﺛﻢ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻤﺪﺧﻠﺔ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ اﻟﻨﺘﯿﺠﺔ ھﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪Distribution Summary‬‬
‫‪Distribution: Weibull‬‬
‫‪Expression:‬‬ ‫)‪WEIB(4.91, 1.03‬‬
‫‪Square Error: 0.000756‬‬
‫‪Chi Square Test‬‬

‫‪Number of intervals = 15‬‬
‫‪Degrees of freedom = 12‬‬
‫‪323‬‬
Test Statistic = 14.4
Corresponding p-value = 0.284
Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test
Corresponding p-value > 0.15
Data Summary
Number of Data Points = 1000

Min Data Value = 0.0022
Max Data Value = 38.5
Sample Mean = 4.92
Sample Std Dev = 5.01
Histogram Summary
Histogram Range = 0 to 39
Number of Intervals = 31
SUMMARY.OUT ‫وﻣﻠﻒ اﻹﺧﺘﺼﺎر‬
Fit All
Document: C:\Documents and Settings\amb\Desktop\InputAnalysis\exp.dst
Data File: C:\Documents and Settings\amb\Desktop\InputAnalysis\exp.dst
Function Sq Error
--------------------------------
Weibull 0.000756
Gamma 0.000818
Erlang 0.000846
Exponential 0.000846
Beta 0.00203
324
Lognormal 0.00625
Normal 0.0391
Triangular 0.0632
Uniform 0.0957
.‫ﻻﺣﻆ أن ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ وﯾﺒﻞ ھﻮ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻷﻓﻀﻞ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت‬
‫ ﻻﺣﻆ أن اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻟﻌﺪد‬.‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﺴﺘﻌﺮض ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ ﻋﺪد ﻓﺌﺎت اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﻄﺒﯿﻖ‬
:‫ ﻧﻐﯿﺮ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻔﺌﺎت ﻣﻦ‬.31 ‫ﻓﺌﺎت‬
‫ﺛﻢ‬
‫ ﻓﯿﻌﺎد اﻟﺘﻄﺒﯿﻖ ذاﺗﯿﺎ وﯾﻨﺘﺞ‬OK ‫ ﺛﻢ‬20 ‫وﺿﻌﻨﺎ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻔﺌﺎت‬
Distribution Summary
Distribution: Exponential
Expression: EXPO(4.92)
Square Error: 0.000421
Chi Square Test

Number of intervals = 11
Degrees of freedom = 9
Corresponding p-value = 0.639
325
Data Summary

Sample Mean = 4.92
Histogram Summary
.‫ﻻﺣﻆ أن اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻷﺳﻲ اﻵن ھﻮ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻷﻓﻀﻞ ﺗﻄﺒﯿﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت‬
Fit All
Function Sq Error
----------------------------------
Erlang 0.000421
Exponential 0.000421
Gamma 0.000422
Weibull 0.00048
326
Beta 0.00277
Lognormal 0.00784
Normal 0.06
Triangular 0.101
Uniform 0.148
.‫ﻻﺣﻆ أن اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻷﺳﻲ ھﻮ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ إرﻻﻧﺞ‬
10 ‫ﻣﺎذا ﻟﻮ ﻛﺎن ﻋﺪد اﻟﻔﺌﺎت‬
Distribution: Exponential
Expression: EXPO(4.92)
Chi Square Test

Data Summary

Sample Mean = 4.92
Histogram Summary
327
Fit All
Function Sq Error
---------------------------------
Erlang 6.8e-005
Exponential 6.8e-005
Weibull 0.000107
Gamma 0.000166
Beta 0.00158
Lognormal 0.00868
Normal 0.0976
Triangular 0.202
Uniform 0.281
‫ راﺟﻊ ﻓﺼﻞ‬.‫ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻷﺳﻲ ھﻮ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺧﺎﺻﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻌﯿﻦ إرﻻﻧﺞ ووﯾﺒﻮل‬:‫ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ‬
.‫ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼت‬
328
‫ﻣﻠﺤﻖ ‪1‬‬
‫اﻟﻌﻤﺎل‬
‫‪329‬‬
‫اﻟﺪوال اﻟﺮﯾﺎﺿﯿﺔ‬
‫‪330‬‬
331
‫ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮات ﺗﺮاﻛﯿﺐ ‪SIMAN‬‬
‫‪332‬‬
333
‫ﺟﺪول ﻣﺨﺘﺼﺮ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات‬
‫‪334‬‬
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
‫ﻣﻜﺘﺒﺔ اﻟﺮﺳﻮﻣﺎت‬
‫‪351‬‬
352
353
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
‫‪Arena 3‬‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﺴﺘﻌﺮض طﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪ ARENA‬ﻟﺤﻞ اﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ھﺬا اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﯾﻤﺜﻞ اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺎت اﻷﺧﯿﺮة ﻹﻧﺘﺎج ﻧﻮﻋﯿﻦ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﯿﻦ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻮﺣﺪات اﻹﻟﻜﺘﺮوﻧﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻐﻠﻘﺔ‬
‫‪ Sealed‬واﻟﺬي ﯾﻤﺜﻞ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪Scrapped‬‬
‫‪20%‬‬
‫‪Part A Prep‬‬ ‫‪Rework‬‬
‫‪Part A‬‬
‫)‪EXPO(5‬‬
‫‪Sealer‬‬ ‫‪9%‬‬
‫)‪TRIA(1,4,8‬‬ ‫)‪EXPO(45‬‬ ‫‪80%‬‬
‫‪Salvaged‬‬
‫‪Arrivals‬‬ ‫‪and‬‬
‫‪Shipped‬‬
‫‪Part BPrep‬‬
‫‪Part B‬‬
‫‪Part A‬‬
‫)‪TRIA(1,3,4‬‬ ‫‪91%‬‬
‫‪Batch of 4‬‬ ‫‪Shipped‬‬
‫)‪EXPO(30‬‬ ‫‪Part B‬‬
‫)‪NORM(2.4,0.5‬‬
‫‪TRIA(3,5,10‬‬
‫اﻟﻘﻄﻊ اﻟﻮاﺻﻠﺔ ﻋﺒﺎرة ﻋﻦ ﺻﻨﺎدﯾﻖ ﻣﻌﺪﻧﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻮﺣﺪات اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻢ ﺻﻨﻌﮭﺎ ﻟﺘﻮﺿﻊ داﺧﻠﮭﺎ وﺗﻠﺤﻢ‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﻮﺣﺪات اﻷوﻟﻰ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺴﻤﻰ ‪ Part A‬ﺗﻨﺘﺞ ﻓﻲ ﻗﺴﻢ آﺧﺮ ﺧﺎرج ﺣﺪود اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج وﺗﺼﻞ إﻟﻰ ﻧﻤﻮذﺟﻨﺎ‬
‫ﺑﺰﻣﻦ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ وﺻﻮل ‪ Interarrival Times‬ﻣﻮزع اﺳﯿﺎ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 5‬دﻗﺎﺋﻖ‪ ،‬ﻋﻨﺪ وﺻﻮل ھﺬه‬
‫اﻟﻘﻄﻊ ﺗﻨﻘﻞ إﻟﻰ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ اﻟﺘﺤﻀﯿﺮ ‪ Part A Prep‬وﯾﺴﺘﻐﺮق ھﺬا اﻟﻨﻘﻞ ‪ 2‬دﻗﺎﺋﻖ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺘﺤﻀﯿﺮ ﯾﺘﻢ ﺑﺮد وﺻﻘﻞ وﺗﻨﻈﯿﻒ ھﺬه اﻟﺼﻨﺎدﯾﻖ ﻟﻜﻲ ﯾﻜﻮن اﻟﻠﺤﺎم ﺟﯿﺪا وھﺬا اﻟﺘﺤﻀﯿﺮ ﯾﺴﺘﻐﺮق‬
‫زﻣﻨﺎ ﯾﺘﺒﻊ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺜﻠﺜﻲ )‪ ،(1,4,8‬ﺛﻢ ﯾﻨﻘﻞ ھﺬا اﻟﺠﺰء اﻟﻰ اﻟﻠﺤﺎم ‪ Sealer‬وﯾﺴﺘﻐﺮق اﻟﻨﻘﻞ ‪2‬‬
‫دﻗﺎﺋﻖ‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﻮﺣﺪات اﻟﺜﺎﻧﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺴﻤﻰ ‪ Part B‬ﺗﻨﺘﺞ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺒﻨﻰ آﺧﺮ ﺧﺎرج ﺣﺪود اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج وﺗﺠﻤﻊ ﻓﻲ وﺣﺪات‬
‫ﻣﻦ ارﺑﻊ )‪ (4‬ﻗﻄﻊ ﻗﺒﻞ ان ﺗﺮﺳﻞ إﻟﻰ وﺣﺪة اﻟﺘﺤﻀﯿﺮ ‪ Part B Prep‬واﻟﺘﻰ ﺗﺼﻠﮭﺎ ﺑﺰﻣﻦ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ‬
‫وﺻﻮل ﻟﮫ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﺳﻲ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 30‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﻌﺪ وﺻﻮل ھﺬه اﻟﻘﻄﻊ ﯾﺘﻢ ﻓﺼﻠﮭﺎ ﻋﻦ ﺑﻌﻀﮭﺎ اﻟﺒﻌﺾ‬
‫وﺗﻌﺎﻟﺞ ﻛﻞ ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﺑﺈﻧﻔﺮاد‪ ،‬اﻟﻤﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ اﻟﺘﺤﻀﯿﺮ ‪ Part B Prep‬ﺗﺘﺒﻊ ﻧﻔﺲ اﻟﺜﻼﺛﺔ ﺧﻄﻮات‬
‫ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ اﻟﺘﺤﻀﯿﺮ ‪ Part A Prep‬ﻣﺎﻋﺪا ان زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﺤﻀﯿﺮ ﯾﺘﺒﻊ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺜﻠﺜﻲ )‪(3,5,10‬‬
‫ﺛﻢ ﺗﺮﺳﻞ اﻟﻘﻄﻊ اﻟﻰ اﻟﻠﺤﺎم ﻣﺴﺘﻐﺮﻗﺔ ‪ 2‬دﻗﺎﺋﻖ ﻟﻠﻮﺻﻮل‪ .‬ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺔ اﻟﻠﺤﺎم ﺗﺘﻢ ﺑﻮﺿﻊ اﻟﻘﻄﻊ اﻹﻟﻜﺘﺮوﻧﯿﺔ‬
‫داﺧﻞ اﻟﺼﻨﺎدﯾﻖ وﻣﻦ ﺛﻢ ﻟﺤﻤﮭﺎ‪ ،‬زﻣﻦ ھﺬه اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺔ ﯾﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻮع اﻟﻘﻄﻌﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻠﻠﻘﻄﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻮع ‪Part‬‬
‫‪ A‬ﯾﻜﻮن ﻟﮫ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﺜﻠﺜﻲ )‪ (1,3,4‬وﻟﻠﻘﻄﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻮع ‪ Part B‬ﯾﻜﻮن ﻟﮫ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ طﺒﯿﻌﻲ)‪.(2.4,0.5‬‬
‫‪362‬‬
‫‪ 91%‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﻄﻊ اﻟﻤﻠﺤﻮﻣﺔ ﺗﻤﺮ ﺑﻤﻨﻄﻘﺔ اﻟﻔﺤﺺ وﺗﺮﺳﻞ ﻟﻘﺴﻢ اﻟﺸﺤﻦ‪ ،‬اﻟﻘﻄﻊ اﻟﻤﺮﻓﻮﺿﺔ ﺗﺮﺳﻞ‬
‫ﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘﺔ إﻋﺎدة اﻟﺘﺼﻨﯿﻊ ‪ Rework‬ﺣﯿﺚ ﯾﺘﻢ ﺗﻔﻜﯿﻜﮭﺎ وإﻋﺎدة ﺻﻘﻠﮭﺎ و ﺗﻨﻈﯿﻔﮭﺎ وﻟﺤﻤﮭﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺟﺪﯾﺪ‬
‫وﻣﻦ ھﺬه اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺔ ‪ 80%‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﻮﺣﺪات ﺗﻤﺮ ﺑﺎﻟﻔﺤﺺ وﺗﺮﺳﻞ إﻟﻰ ﻗﺴﻢ اﻟﺸﺤﻦ و اﻟﺒﺎﻗﻲ ﯾﻌﺎد إﻟﻲ‬
‫ﺟﮭﺘﮫ اﻷﺻﻠﯿﺔ ﺧﺎرج اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‪ .‬اﻟﺰﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻐﺮق ﻹﻋﺎدة اﻟﺘﺼﻨﯿﻊ ﯾﺘﺒﻊ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻻﺳﻲ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪45‬‬
‫دﻗﯿﻘﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ اﻟﻘﻄﻊ‪ ،‬أزﻣﻨﺔ اﻹﻧﺘﻘﺎل ﻣﻦ ﺟﮭﺔ ﻻﺧﺮى ﺗﺴﺘﻐﺮق ‪ 2‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪Resource‬‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﺟﻤﻊ إﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺎت ﻋﻦ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﺮﻓﺔ ﻣﺪى إﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻤﻮارد‬
‫‪ ، Utilization‬ﻋﺪد اﻟﻘﻄﻊ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ طﺎﺑﻮر ‪ ، Number in Queue‬اﻟﺰﻣﻦ اﻟﺬي ﺗﺴﺘﻐﺮﻗﺔ اﻟﻘﻄﻌﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻲ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ‪ Time in Queue‬وزﻣﻦ ﻣﻜﻮث اﻟﻘﻄﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ‪ Cycletime‬أو ‪Flowtime‬‬
‫ﻟﻜﻞ ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ارﺳﻠﺖ ﻟﻠﺸﺤﻦ أو اﻋﯿﺪ ﺗﺼﻨﯿﻌﮭﺎ او ارﺳﻠﺖ ﻟﻤﺼﺪرھﺎ اﻷﺻﻠﻲ‪.‬‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﺤﺎﻛﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻟﻤﺪة ‪ 2000‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ وﺳﻮف ﻧﺒﻨﻲ ﻧﻤﻮذج ﺑﺼﻮر ﻣﺘﺤﺮﻛﺔ ‪. Animation‬‬
‫ﺑﻨﺎء اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‪:‬‬
‫ﺷﻐﻞ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ‪ ARENA‬وأﻓﺘﺢ ﻣﻠﻒ ﺟﺪﯾﺪ ‪ File > New‬أﺧﺘﺎر ‪Common panel‬‬
‫وﻣﻨﮭﺎ أﻧﺴﺦ وأﻟﺼﻖ اﻷﺟﺰاء اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪363‬‬
‫اﻵن أﺿﻐﻂ ﺑﺎﻟﻔﺄرة ﻣﺮﺗﯿﻦ ﻋﻠﻲ ‪ Arrive 1‬ﺗﻈﮭﺮ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬
‫‪364‬‬
:‫أدﺧﻞ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﻛﻤﺎ ھﻮ ﻣﻮﺿﺢ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
Enter Data
Station Part A Arrive
Arrival Data
Batch Size 1
Time Between EXPO(5)
Mark Time Attribute Arrival Time
Leave Data
Station Part A Prep
Route Time 2
Assignments
Attribute Sealer Time
Value TRIA(1,3,4)
‫ ﺗﻈﮭﺮ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬Assign… ‫ﺛﻢ أﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
365
‫أﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ …‪ Add‬ﻓﺘﻈﮭﺮ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬
‫أﺧﺘﺎر ‪ Attribute‬إذا ﻟﻢ ﺗﻜﻦ ﻣﺨﺘﺎرة ﺛﻢ ادﺧﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ‪ Sealer Time‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة اﻣﺎم ﻛﻠﻤﺔ‬
‫‪ Attribute:‬و)‪ TRIA(1,3,4‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة اﻣﺎم ‪ Value:‬ﺛﻢ اﺿﻐﻂ ‪ OK‬ﻟﻘﻔﻞ ﺟﻤﯿﻊ اﻟﻨﻮاﻓﺬ‪.‬‬
‫أﻓﻌﻞ ﻧﻔﺲ اﻟﺸﯿﺊ ﻣﻊ ‪ Arrive 2‬وأدﺧﻞ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﻛﻤﺎﯾﻠﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪Enter Data‬‬
‫‪366‬‬
Station Part B Arrive
Arrival Data
Batch Size 4
Time Between EXPO(30)
Mark Time Attribute Arrival Time
Leave Data
Station Part B Prep
Route Time 2
Assignments
Attribute Sealer Time
Value NORM(2.4,0.5)
‫ اﺿﻐﻂ ﻣﺮﺗﯿﻦ وأدﺧﻞ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬Server 1 ‫اﻵن ﻧﻨﺘﻘﻞ إﻟﻰ‬

Enter Data
Station Part A Prep
Server Data
Resource Part A Prep_R
Capacity Type Capacity
Capacity 1
Process Time TRIA(1,4,8)
Leave Data
Station Sealer
Route Time 2
‫ﻓﺘﺒﺪو ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬
367
‫ اﺿﻐﻂ ﻣﺮﺗﯿﻦ وأدﺧﻞ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬Server 2 ‫اﻵن ﻧﻨﺘﻘﻞ إﻟﻰ‬
Enter Data
Station Part B Prep
Server Data
Resource Part B Prep_R
Capacity 1
Process Time TRIA(3,5,10)
Leave Data
Station Sealer
Route Time 2
368
:‫ إﺿﻐﻂ ﻣﺮﺗﯿﻦ وأدﺧﻞ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﻛﻤﺎ ﯾﻠﻲ‬Inspect 1 ‫ﻧﻨﺘﻘﻞ إﻟﻲ‬
Enter Data
Station Sealer
Server Data
Resource Sealer _R
Capacity 1
Process Time Sealer Time
Failure Probability 0.09
Pass Inspection Leave Data
Station Shipping
Route Time 2
Fail Inspection Leave Data
Station Rework
Route Time 2
369
:‫ وأدﺧﻞ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﻛﻤﺎ ﯾﻠﻲ‬Inspect 2 ‫وأﻓﻌﻞ ﻧﻔﺲ اﻟﺸﯿﺊ ﻣﻊ‬
Enter Data
Station Rework
Server Data
Resource Rework _R
Capacity 1
Process Time EXPO(45)
Station Salvaged Parts
370
Route Time 2
Station Scrap
Route Time 2
‫ وادﺧﻞ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬Depart 3 ‫اﺿﻐﻂ ﻣﺮﺗﯿﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
Enter Data
Station Shipping
Count
Counter Shipping_C
Increament 1
Tally
371
Tally Shipping_Ta
Type of Statistics
Attribute Arrival Time
Enter Data
Count
Counter Salvaged Parts _C
Increament 1
372
Tally
Tally Salvaged Parts _Ta
Type of Statistics
Enter Data
Station Scrap
Count
Counter Scrap _C
Increament 1
Tally
Tally Scrap _Ta
373
Type of Statistics
:‫ وأدﺧﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬Simulate ‫وأﺧﯿﺮا إﺿﻐﻂ ﻣﺮﺗﯿﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
Replicate
Number of Replications 1
Beginning Time 0.0
Length of Replication 2000
374
‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﺠﺪول اﻷﯾﻤﻦ‬ ‫أﻵن ﻧﺤﺪد ﻣﺴﺎرات اﻷﺟﺰاء ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج وذﻟﻚ ﺑﺈﺧﺘﯿﺎر ﻣﻔﺘﺎح اﻟﻤﺴﺎر‬
‫ﻓﺘﻈﮭﺮ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬
‫اﺿﻐﻂ ‪ OK‬ﻓﯿﺘﺤﻮل اﻟﻤﺆﺷﺮ اﻟﻰ ‪ +‬ووﺻﻞ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ اﻷﺟﺰاء ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫‪375‬‬
‫ ﺳﻮف ﺗﺒﺪأ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة وﺳﻮف ﺗﺮى‬RUN > GO ‫اﻵن ﻧﺠﺮي اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة وذﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
:‫اﻟﻮﺣﺪات وھﻲ ﺗﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﻓﻲ اﻷﺟﺰاء اﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج وﺣﯿﻨﻤﺎ ﺗﻨﺘﮭﻲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﯾﻨﺘﺞ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﻧﺘﯿﺠﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة واﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ‬
ARENA Simulation Results

amb - License #9400000
Project: Electronics Assembly Run execution date :30/31/2001

Analyst: Dr.Adnan Barry Model revision date: 3/11/2001
TALLY VARIABLES
Identifier Average Half Width Minimum Maximum Observations

____________________________________________________________________________
Salvaged Parts_Ta 540.48 (Insuf) 101.91 874.90 31

Shipping_Ta 35.911 (Corr) 9.7800 117.85 548
Scrap_Ta 334.79 (Insuf) 76.343 821.27 4
Rework_R_Q Queue Time 429.95 (Insuf) .00000 782.19 36
Part A Prep_R_Q Queue 6.0259 (Corr) .00000 28.804 365
Sealer_R_Q Queue Time 1.9247 (Corr) .00000 12.850 603
Part B Prep_R_Q Queue 42.308 (Insuf) .00000 105.34 240
376
Identifier Average Half Width Minimum Maximum Final Value

____________________________________________________________________________
Rework_R Available 1.0000 (Insuf) 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

Sealer_R Available 1.0000 (Insuf) 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000
Part A Prep_R Availabl 1.0000 (Insuf) 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000
Part B Prep_R Busy .72774 (Insuf) .00000 1.0000 .00000
Part A Prep_R Busy .79647 (Corr) .00000 1.0000 1.0000
# in Rework_R_Q 11.615 (Insuf) .00000 22.000 19.000
# in Part B Prep_R_Q 5.0770 (Insuf) .00000 19.000 .00000
# in Sealer_R_Q .58031 (Corr) .00000 4.0000 .00000
Sealer_R Busy .77139 (Corr) .00000 1.0000 .00000
# in Part A Prep_R_Q 1.0999 (Corr) .00000 6.0000 2.0000
Rework_R Busy .99029 (Insuf) .00000 1.0000 1.0000
Part B Prep_R Availabl 1.0000 (Insuf) 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000
COUNTERS

_________________________________________
Scrap_C 4 Infinite
Shipping_C 548 Infinite
Salvaged Parts_C 31 Infinite
Simulation run time: 5.48 minutes.

.‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﻨﺎﻗﺶ ھﺬا اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺿﺮة‬

‫إدﺧﺎل ﺗﺤﺴﯿﻨﺎت ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‬
‫ ﺗﻌﻤﻞ‬Rework ‫ ﻟﻨﻔﺘﺮض ان ﻣﺤﻄﺔ إﻋﺎدة اﻟﻠﺤﺎم‬،‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﻀﯿﻒ ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﺘﻐﯿﯿﺮات ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‬
(‫ دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‬480) ‫ ﺳﺎﻋﺎت‬8 ‫ اﻟﺪورﯾﺔ اﻷوﻟﻰ ﯾﻌﻤﻞ ﻓﯿﮭﺎ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ واﺣﺪ ﻟﻤﺪة‬Shift ‫ﻋﻠﻰ دورﯾﺘﯿﻦ‬
‫ ﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ ھﺬه اﻹﺿﺎﻓﺎت ﺑﺎﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬،‫ ﺳﺎﻋﺎت اﯾﻀﺎ‬8 ‫واﻟﺪورﯾﺔ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﯿﺔ ﯾﻌﻤﻞ ﻓﯿﮭﺎ ﻋﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ ﻟﻤﺪة‬
:‫ ﻧﻌﻤﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬ARENA
‫ ﻓﺘﻈﺮ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ واﻟﺘﻲ ﻧﺪﺧﻞ ﻓﯿﮭﺎ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬Rework ‫اﺿﻐﻂ ﻣﺮﺗﯿﻦ ﻋﻠﻲ ﻣﺤﻄﺔ اﻟﻔﺤﺺ‬
Enter Data
Station Rework
377
Server Data
Resource Rework _R
Capacity Type Scedule
Scedule Rework Schedule Ignore
Process Time EXPO(45)
Route Time 2
Station Scrap
Route Time 2
‫ )اﺳﻔﻞ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة ﻣﻦ اﻟﯿﺴﺎر( ﺗﻈﮭﺮ ﻟﻚ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬Schedule ‫إﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
378
‫إﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ …‪ Add‬ﻓﺘﻈﮭﺮ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﺧﺮى‬
‫إﺿﻐﻂ ‪ OK‬ﺛﻢ ﻛﺮر اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺔ ﻣﺮة اﺧﺮى ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫وﺗﻨﺘﺞ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻨﮭﺎﺋﯿﺔ‬
‫‪379‬‬
‫اﻟﺬي ﻋﻤﻠﻨﺎه ھﻮ ﻧﻤﺬﺟﺔ دورﯾﺘﯿﻦ ﺳﻌﺔ اﻷوﻟﻰ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ واﺣﺪ وﺗﺴﺘﻐﺮق اﻟﺪورﯾﺔ ‪ 480‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ وﺳﻌﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺜﺎﻧﯿﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ وﺗﺴﺘﻐﺮق اﯾﻀﺎ ‪ 480‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻟﻨﻔﺘﺮض أﯾﻀﺎ ان ﻣﻜﯿﻨﺔ ﻣﺤﻄﺔ اﻟﻠﺤﺎم ‪ Sealer‬ﺗﺼﺎب ﺑﺈﻋﻄﺎل ﻣﻦ وﻗﺖ ﻵﺧﺮ ﻓﺈذا ﻛﺎن ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ‬
‫اﻟﺰﻣﻦ اﻟﺬي ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﻓﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻜﯿﻨﺔ ‪ Uptime‬ھﻮ اﺳﻲ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 120‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ وزﻣﻦ ﺗﺼﻠﯿﺢ وإﻋﺎدة‬
‫ﺗﺸﻐﯿﻞ وﯾﻄﻠﻖ ﻋﻠﯿﮫ ‪ Downtime‬ﻟﮫ اﯾﻀﺎ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﺳﻲ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 4‬دﻗﺎﺋﻖ‪ .‬ﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ ھﺬا إﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻣﺤﻄﺔ اﻟﻔﺤﺺ ‪ Sealer‬ﻣﺮﺗﯿﻦ ﻟﺘﻈﮭﺮ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة‬
‫‪380‬‬
‫ﻓﺘﻈﮭﺮ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة‬ ‫إﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫‪381‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺰء ﺗﺤﺖ ‪ Failures‬إﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ …‪ Add‬ﻓﺘﻈﮭﺮ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة وﻋﺒﺊ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﮫ‬
‫‪Failure‬‬ ‫‪Sealer Failure‬‬
‫‪Failure Based On‬‬ ‫‪Time‬‬
‫‪Fai When‬‬ ‫‪Wait‬‬
‫‪Uptime‬‬ ‫)‪EXPO(120‬‬
‫‪Downtime‬‬ ‫)‪EXPO(4‬‬
‫ﺳﻨﻀﯿﻒ إﻟﻰ ﻧﻤﻮذﺟﻨﺎ ﻣﺮﻛﺒﺔ إﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ ﻟﺠﻤﻊ ﺑﻌﺾ اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﺎت ﻟﺘﺤﻠﯿﻠﮭﺎ ﻻﺣﻘﺎ ﻟﺬﻟﻚ أﺧﺘﺎر ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﻟﻮﺣﺔ ‪Common‬‬
‫وھﻮ اﻟﻤﻜﺘﻮب ﻋﻠﯿﮫ ‪ Statistics‬ﺛﻢ أﺧﺘﺎر ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺧﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺤﺮر اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج وأﻟﺼﻖ‬ ‫اﻟﺰر‬
‫اﻟﻤﺮﻛﺒﺔ‬
‫‪382‬‬
‫إﺿﻐﻂ ﻣﺮﺗﯿﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ Statistics‬ﻓﺘﻈﺮ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة‬
‫ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺰء ﺗﺤﺖ ‪ Time-Persistent‬أﺿﻐﻂ …‪ Add‬ﻓﺘﻈﺮ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة‬
‫‪383‬‬
‫ﺛﻢ أﻣﻠﺊ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬
Data Object
Queue select
Queue Name Part B Prep_R_Q
Save Observation to a File check

OS File Name in Double Quotes “Prep B_Q.dat”
:‫ﻛﺮر اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻟﻠﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬

Data Object
Queue select
Queue Name Sealer_R_Q

OS File Name in Double Quotes “Sealer_Q.dat”
384
Data Object
Queue select
Queue Name Rework_R_Q

OS File Name in Double Quotes “Rework_Q.dat”
‫ ﻓﺘﻈﺮ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬Add… ‫ أﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ‬Tallies ‫ﺗﺤﺖ‬
‫أدﺧﻞ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬

Tally Name Shipping_Ta
Save Observations to a File check
OS File Name in Double Quotes “Ship.dat”
‫ وأدﺧﻞ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬Add… ‫ أﺿﻐﻂ‬Frequencies ‫أﺧﯿﺮا ﺗﺤﺖ‬

Expression NQ(Rework_R_Q)
Constant or Range Constant
Value 0
Constant or Range Range
Value 0
High Value 10
Constant or Range Range
Value 10
High Value 20
385
‫‪Constant or Range‬‬ ‫‪Range‬‬
‫‪Value‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬
‫‪High Value‬‬ ‫‪30‬‬
‫…‬
‫ﻓﺘﻨﺘﺞ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة‬
‫اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ ﺳﻮف ﺗﺒﺪو ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪386‬‬
.‫ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺗﻌﻮد اﻟﻰ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺗﺤﺮﯾﺮ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‬OK ‫أﺿﻐﻂ‬
:‫أﺟﺮي اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻛﺎﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ وأطﺒﻊ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﻧﺘﯿﺠﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة واﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ‬

Project: Electronics Asse Run execution date : 11/ 1/2001

Analyst: Dr.Adnan Barry Model revision date: 3/11/2001
TALLY VARIABLES
Identifier Average Half Width Minimum Maximum

Observations
____________________________________________________________________________
Salvaged Parts_Ta 302.17 (Corr) 19.439 1229.2 1199

Rework_R_Q Queue Time 193.93 48.888 .00000 674.58 1467
Sealer_R_Q Queue Time 6.2386 1.5828 .00000 50.795 16499
Scrap_Ta 285.39 (Insuf) 25.366 1159.2 267
Part B Prep_R_Q Queue 70.972 (Corr) .00000 541.65 6624
Shipping_Ta 57.472 (Corr) 9.0197 564.91 15031
Part A Prep_R_Q Queue 15.183 2.5646 .00000 99.536 9876
Identifier Average Half Width Minimum Maximum Final

Value
____________________________________________________________________________
Part A Prep_R Busy .85391 .02036 .00000 1.0000 1.0000

# in Rework_R_Q 5.6899 1.6284 .00000 28.000 .00000
# in Sealer_R_Q 2.0586 .59611 .00000 21.000 .00000
Part B Prep_R Availabl 1.0000 (Insuf) 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000
# in Part A Prep_R_Q 2.9990 .61504 .00000 24.000 1.0000
Sealer_R Available 1.0000 (Insuf) 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000
Part A Prep_R Availabl 1.0000 (Insuf) 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000
Rework_R Available 1.4992 (Insuf) 1.0000 2.0000 1.0000
Sealer_R Busy .84177 .02003 .00000 1.0000 .00000
Rework_R Busy 1.3732 .06088 .00000 2.0000 1.0000
387
Part B Prep_R Busy .79305 .04708 .00000 1.0000 .00000
# in Part B Prep_R_Q 9.4023 (Corr) .00000 88.000 .00000
COUNTERS

_________________________________________
Salvaged Parts_C 1199 Infinite

Scrap_C 267 Infinite
Shipping_C 15031 Infinite
FREQUENCIES
--Occurrences-- Standard
Restricted
Identifier Category Number AvgTime Percent Percent
____________________________________________________________________________
Value(NQ(REWORK_R_Q)) Constant(0,) 112 81.559 18.27 18.27

Range(0,10) 163 197.97 64.54 64.54
Range(10,20) 63 120.45 15.18 15.18
Range(20,30) 11 91.559 2.01 2.01
STATE(Sealer_R) BUSY 3635 11.578 84.18 84.18

IDLE 3339 1.9188 12.81 12.81
FAILED 387 3.8871 3.01 3.01

.‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﻨﺎﻗﺶ ھﺬا اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺿﺮة‬

: Output Analysis ‫ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻤﺨﺮﺟﺎت‬
‫ ﺑﺤﺚ ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة‬342 ‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﺘﻄﺮق ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻔﺼﯿﻞ إﻟﻰ ﻣﻮﺿﻮع ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻤﺨﺮﺟﺎت ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺤﻜﺎة ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﻘﺮر‬
‫ واﻟﺬي ﯾﺄﺗﻲ ﻣﻊ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬Output Analyser ‫ ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻮى ﺳﻮف ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬. 2
.‫ ﻟﺘﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺑﺴﯿﻂ ﻟﻠﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺟﻤﻌﻨﺎھﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺮﻛﺒﺔ اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﻮﺿﻮع اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‬ARENA
‫ او ﻣﻦ اﯾﻘﻮﻧﺘﺔ ﻷن اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﯾﻌﻤﻞ‬ARENA ‫ إﻣﺎ ﻣﻦ داﺧﻞ‬Output Analyser ‫إﺑﺪأ ﺑﺘﺸﻐﯿﻞ‬
‫ ﺑﻌﺪ اﻟﺘﺸﻐﯿﻞ ﺗﻈﮭﺮ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة‬،‫ ﻟﻜﻲ ﯾﻌﻤﻞ‬ARENA ‫ﺑﺬاﺗﺔ وﻻﯾﺤﺘﺎج‬
388
‫أﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻲ ‪ File > New‬ﻓﺘﻈﮭﺮ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة‬
‫أﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻲ …‪ Add‬ﻓﯿﻈﮭﺮ ﻣﺠﻠﺪ اﻟﻤﻠﻔﺎت‬
‫‪389‬‬
‫أﺧﺘﺎر اﻟﻤﻠﻔﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺧﺰﻧﺖ ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺎ ﻛﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻣﻠﻔﺎت ﺑﯿﺎﻧﺎت ‪Data Group Files‬‬
‫اﻵن ﻟﻨﺮﺳﻢ اﻟﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻓﻲ طﺎﺑﻮر ﺗﺤﻀﯿﺮ اﻟﻘﻄﻊ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﯿﺔ ‪ ، Prep B_Q‬أﺧﺘﺎر ‪ Graph > Plot‬ﻓﺘﻈﮭﺮ‬
‫اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة‬
‫‪390‬‬
‫اﺿﻐﻂ …‪ Add‬واﺧﺘﺎر ‪ Prep B_Q.dat‬ﺛﻢ ‪OK‬‬
‫وھﻮ رﺳﻢ ﻟﻌﺪد اﻟﻮﺣﺪات ﻓﻲ طﺎﺑﻮر ﺗﺤﻀﯿﺮ اﻟﻘﻄﻊ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﯿﺔ‬

‫ﻟﻨﺮﺳﻢ رﺳﻢ آﺧﺮ ﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت طﺎﺑﻮر إﻋﺎدة اﻟﺘﺼﻨﯿﻊ‬
‫‪391‬‬
‫ﻓﻨﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺮﺳﻢ‬
‫وأﺧﯿﺮا ﻟﻨﻨﻈﺮ اﻟﻰ اﻟﻤﺪرج اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري ﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر إﻋﺎدة اﻟﺘﺼﻨﯿﻊ‬
‫‪392‬‬
‫واﻟﺬي ﯾﻌﻄﻲ اﻟﺮﺳﻢ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﺗﻮﺟﺪ طﺮق ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ إﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ ﻛﺜﯿﺮة ﻓﻲ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ‪ Output Analyser‬ﺳﻮف ﻧﺴﺘﻌﺮض ﺑﻌﻀﮭﺎ‬
‫ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺳﺮﯾﻊ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺿﺮة‪.‬‬
‫‪393‬‬
‫اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﺳﻊ‪:‬‬
‫ﻧﻈﺎم اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪ GPSS World‬ﺑﺎﻷﻣﺜﻠﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل‪1‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻤﺜﺎل ﺳﻮف ﻧﺴﺘﻌﺮض ﻛﯿﻔﯿﺔ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ او ﻣﺘﻔﺎﻋﻠﯿﻦ ‪ Transactions‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم وﻛﯿﻔﯿﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺘﺨﻠﺺ ﻣﻨﮭﻢ أو إﺧﺮاﺟﮭﻢ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﺑﻌﺪ إﻧﺘﮭﺎء وظﺎﺋﻔﮭﻢ أو ﻣﮭﺎﻣﮭﻢ‪.‬‬
‫ﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪ GENERATE‬ﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻮل ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم وﻟﮫ اﻟﺘﺮﻛﯿﺐ‬
‫‪The GENERATE Block:‬‬
‫‪GENERATE‬‬ ‫‪A,B,C,D,E‬‬
‫ﺣﯿﺚ اﻟﻌﻤﺎل ‪Operands‬‬
‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ ‪ ،‬وھﻮ إﺧﺘﯿﺎري وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﯾﻜﻮن ﻻﺷﯿﺊ )‪ (Null‬او إﺳﻢ‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫)‪ (Name‬أو رﻗﻢ )‪ (Number‬او ﺣﺮوف )‪ (String‬أو ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ أﻗﻮاس‬

‫)‪ (Parenthesized Expression‬أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮة )‪(Direct SNA‬‬
‫وﻻﯾﻤﻜﻦ إﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻣﻌﺎﻟﻢ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ‬
‫ﻧﺼﻒ ﻣﺠﺎل زﻣﻦ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ أو ﻣﻌﺪل داﻟﺔ ‪ ،‬وھﻮ إﺧﺘﯿﺎري وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﯾﻜﻮن‬ ‫‪B‬‬
‫ﻻﺷﯿﺊ )‪ (Null‬او إﺳﻢ )‪ (Name‬أو رﻗﻢ )‪ (Number‬او ﺣﺮوف )‪ (String‬أو ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ‬

‫ﺑﯿﻦ أﻗﻮاس )‪ (Parenthesized Expression‬أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮة ) ‪Direct‬‬
‫‪ (SNA‬وﻻﯾﻤﻜﻦ إﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻣﻌﺎﻟﻢ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ‬

‫ﺑﺪاﯾﺔ زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﺄﺧﯿﺮ وھﻮ زﻣﻦ ﺗﺄﺧﯿﺮ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ أول ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ‪ ،‬وھﻮ إﺧﺘﯿﺎري وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان‬ ‫‪C‬‬
‫ﯾﻜﻮن ﻻﺷﯿﺊ )‪ (Null‬او إﺳﻢ )‪ (Name‬أو رﻗﻢ )‪ (Number‬او ﺣﺮوف )‪ (String‬أو‬

‫ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ أﻗﻮاس )‪ (Parenthesized Expression‬أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮة‬
‫)‪ (Direct SNA‬وﻻﯾﻤﻜﻦ إﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻣﻌﺎﻟﻢ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ‬
‫‪394‬‬
‫ﺣﺪ اﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ أو اﻟﻌﺪد اﻷﻗﺼﻰ ﻟﻌﺪد اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ اﻟﺬﯾﻦ ﯾﺘﻢ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪھﻢ ‪ ،‬واﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻹﻓﺘﺮاﺿﯿﺔ‬ ‫‪D‬‬
‫ﻟﮭﺬا اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ ﻻﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ ‪ ،‬وھﻮ إﺧﺘﯿﺎري وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﯾﻜﻮن ﻻﺷﯿﺊ )‪ (Null‬او إﺳﻢ )‪(Name‬‬
‫أو رﻗﻢ )‪ (Number‬او ﺣﺮوف )‪ (String‬أو ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ أﻗﻮاس ) ‪Parenthesized‬‬
‫‪ (Expression‬أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮة )‪ (Direct SNA‬وﻻﯾﻤﻜﻦ إﺳﺘﺨﺪام‬

‫ﻣﻌﺎﻟﻢ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ‬
‫ﯾﻜﻮن ﻻﺷﯿﺊ‬ ‫ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻷﻓﻀﻠﯿﺔ ‪ ،‬وھﻮ إﺧﺘﯿﺎري وﻗﯿﻤﺘﮫ اﻹﻓﺘﺮاﺿﯿﺔ ‪ 0‬وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان‬ ‫‪E‬‬
‫)‪ (Null‬او إﺳﻢ )‪ (Name‬أو رﻗﻢ )‪ (Number‬او ﺣﺮوف )‪ (String‬أو ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ‬
‫أﻗﻮاس )‪ (Parenthesized Expression‬أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮة ) ‪Direct‬‬
‫‪ (SNA‬وﻻﯾﻤﻜﻦ إﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻣﻌﺎﻟﻢ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ‬
‫ﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪ TERMINATE‬ﻟﻠﺘﺨﻠﺺ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ وإﺧﺮاﺟﮭﻢ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم وإﻧﻘﺎص ﻋﺪاد‬

‫اﻹﻧﮭﺎء وﻟﮫ اﻟﺘﺮﻛﯿﺐ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫‪The TERMINATE Block:‬‬
‫‪TERMINATE‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫ﺣﯿﺚ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ‬
‫ﻣﻘﺪار إﻧﻘﺎص ﻋﺪاد اﻹﻧﮭﺎء واﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻹﻓﺘﺮاﺿﯿﺔ ﻟﮫ ‪ 0‬وھﻮ إﺧﺘﯿﺎري وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫ﯾﻜﻮن ﻻﺷﯿﺊ )‪ (Null‬او إﺳﻢ )‪ (Name‬أو رﻗﻢ ﺻﺤﯿﺢ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ )‪ (PosInteger‬أو‬

‫ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ أﻗﻮاس )‪ (Parenthesized Expression‬أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم )‪ (SNA‬أو‬
‫ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ )‪(SNA*Parameter‬‬
‫‪Example 1:‬‬
‫‪GENERATE 1‬‬
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‫‪TERMINATE 1‬‬
‫أدﺧﻞ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻓﻲ ﺻﻔﺤﺔ ﻧﻤﻮذج ﻓﻲ ‪GPSS‬‬
‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ اﻟﺮﺋﯿﺴﺔ اﺧﺘﺎر ‪ Command‬ﺛﻢ ‪Create Simulation‬‬
‫‪396‬‬
‫إذا ﻛﺎن اﻟﺘﺮﻛﯿﺐ اﻟﻠﻐﻮي ﻟﻠﻐﺔ ‪ GPSS‬ﺻﺤﯿﺢ ﻓﯿﻨﺘﺞ‬
‫ﻛﻠﻤﺔ ‪ Ready‬ﺗﻌﻨﻲ أن اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺻﺤﯿﺢ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﺣﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﺮﻛﯿﺐ اﻟﻠﻐﻮي وﻟﻜﻦ ﻻﯾﻀﻤﻦ ﺻﺤﺘﮫ ﻣﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻨﺎﺣﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘﯿﺔ )طﺒﻌﺎ اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ اﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ ﺑﺴﯿﻂ وواﺿﺢ ﺻﺤﺘﮫ اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘﯿﺔ( ﻗﺒﻞ إﺟﺮاء اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﻣﻦ‬
‫اﻷﻓﻀﻞ ﻣﺮاﻗﺒﺔ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ واﻟﺘﻲ ﻧﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ اﻟﺮﺋﯿﺴﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ Window‬ﺛﻢ‬
‫إﺧﺘﯿﺎر ‪ Simulation Window‬وﻣﻨﮭﺎ ﻧﺨﺘﺎر ‪ Blocks Window‬ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﻓﺘﻈﮭﺮ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ‬
‫‪397‬‬
‫اﻵن ﻧﺠﺮي اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة وذﻟﻚ ﺑﺈﺧﺘﯿﺎر ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ اﻟﺮﺋﯿﺴﺔ ‪ Command‬ﺛﻢ ‪START‬‬
‫ﻓﺘﻈﮭﺮ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺤﻮار‬
‫‪398‬‬
‫أدﺧﻠﻨﺎ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ ‪ 100‬ﻟﻌﺪاد اﻹﻧﮭﺎء وھﺬا ﯾﻌﻨﻲ إﺟﺮاء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺣﺘﻰ ﯾﻜﻤﻞ اﻟﻘﻠﺐ ‪TERMINATE‬‬
‫إﻧﮭﺎء ‪ 100‬ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺗﻢ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪھﻢ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪ GENERATE‬واﻟﺬي ﯾﻮﻟﺪ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻏﯿﺮﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﯾﻤﺮ‬
‫ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم وﯾﻨﺘﮭﻲ ﻋﻨﺪ ‪ .TERMINATE‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻧﻀﻐﻂ ‪ OK‬ﺗﺠﺮى اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة وﻧﺮى ﺗﻔﺎﻋﻠﯿﺎ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ ﻛﯿﻒ ﯾﺘﻢ ذﻟﻚ وﺗﻨﺘﮭﻲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﺈﻧﺘﮭﺎء ﻣﺮور ‪ 100‬ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﻈﺎم وﯾﻈﮭﺮ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ وﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ ودون ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺎﺗﻚ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪2‬‬
‫‪399‬‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﻄﻮر اﻟﻤﺜﺎل اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻗﻠﯿﻼ وذﻟﻚ ﺑﺈﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ ADVANCE‬اﻟﺬي ﯾﻨﻤﺬج ﺗﺄﺧﯿﺮاﻹﺳﺘﻤﺮار أو‬
‫اﻟﻤﻜﻮث ﻓﻲ ﺟﺰء ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻟﻔﺘﺮة ﻣﻌﯿﻨﺔ ﻗﺪ ﺗﻜﻮن زﻣﻦ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ أو زﻣﻦ إﺳﺘﻌﻤﺎل ﺗﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ أو‬
‫ﻣﺨﺰن ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم أو ﻓﻘﻂ ﻣﺮور ﻓﺘﺮة زﻣﻨﯿﺔ ﺗﻤﺜﻞ زﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﻘﺎل ﻣﻦ ﺟﺰء ﻟﺠﺰء آﺧﺮ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم وﻟﮭﺎ‬
‫اﻟﺘﺮﻛﯿﺐ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫‪The ADVANCE Block:‬‬
‫‪ADVANCE‬‬ ‫‪A,B‬‬
‫ﺣﯿﺚ اﻟﻌﻤﺎل‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﺰﯾﺎدة ﻓﻲ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ‪ ،‬وھﻲ ﺿﺮورﯾﺔ وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﯾﻜﻮن إﺳﻢ )‪ (Name‬أو‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫رﻗﻢ )‪ (Number‬او ﺣﺮوف )‪ (String‬أو ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ أﻗﻮاس ) ‪Parenthesized‬‬
‫‪ (Expression‬أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم )‪ (SNA‬أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ‬

‫)‪(SNA*Parameter‬‬
‫ﻧﺼﻒ ﻣﺠﺎل اﻟﺰﻣﻦ او ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ إﺳﺘﺨﺪام داﻟﺔ ﻓﯿﻜﻮن ﻣﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﺪاﻟﺔ ‪ ،‬وھﻮ إﺧﺘﯿﺎري‬ ‫‪B‬‬
‫وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﯾﻜﻮن ﻻﺷﯿﺊ )‪ (Null‬او إﺳﻢ )‪ (Name‬أو رﻗﻢ )‪ (Number‬او ﺣﺮوف‬

‫)‪ (String‬أو ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ أﻗﻮاس )‪ (Parenthesized Expression‬أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم )‪ (SNA‬أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ )‪(SNA*Parameter‬‬
‫‪ADVANCE‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪TERMINATE‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫ﻧﺪﺧﻞ ھﺬا ﻓﻲ اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‬
‫‪400‬‬
‫ﺛﻢ‬
‫وﺗﺘﻢ ﺗﺮﺟﻤﺔ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‬
‫ﻻﻧﻨﺴﻰ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ وﺑﺈﺟﺮاء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﻮﺿﻊ ‪ START 100‬ﯾﻨﺘﺞ‬
‫‪401‬‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ أﻧﮫ ﺗﻢ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ‪ 105‬ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﺮو ﺑﺎﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻣﻨﮭﻢ ‪ 5‬ﻻزاﻟﻮ ﻣﺘﺄﺧﺮﯾﻦ ﻋﻨﺪ اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪.ADVANCE‬‬
‫أدرس اﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺑﺘﻤﻌﻦ ودون ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺎﺗﻚ‪.‬‬
‫‪402‬‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﻄﻮر اﻟﻤﺜﺎل اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺑﺤﯿﺚ ﻧﻈﮭﺮ إﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ ﻟﻠﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪ ADVANCE‬وذﻟﻚ ﻋﻦ‬
‫طﺮﯾﻖ اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺒﯿﻦ ‪ SEIZE‬وﺗﻌﻨﻲ أﺳﺘﻠﻢ أو اﻣﺴﻚ أو أﺷﻐﻞ اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪ADVANCE‬‬
‫واﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ و ‪ RELEASE‬واﻟﺬي ﯾﻌﻨﻲ أﺗﺮك أو أﻓﺮغ أو ﻏﺎدر اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ‬

‫‪ ADVANCE‬وﻟﮭﻢ اﻟﺘﺮﻛﯿﺐ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪The SEIZE Block:‬‬
‫‪SEIZE‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫ﺣﯿﺚ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ‪:‬‬
‫)‪ (Name‬أو‬ ‫رﻗﻢ او إﺳﻢ اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ ‪ Facility‬وھﻮ ﺿﺮوري وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﯾﻜﻮن إﺳﻢ‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫رﻗﻢ ﺻﺤﯿﺢ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ )‪ (PosInteger‬أو ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ أﻗﻮاس ) ‪Parenthesized‬‬

‫‪The RELEASE Block:‬‬
‫‪RELEASE A‬‬
‫ﺣﯿﺚ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ‪:‬‬
‫رﻗﻢ او إﺳﻢ اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ ‪ Facility‬وھﻮ ﺿﺮوري وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﯾﻜﻮن إﺳﻢ )‪ (Name‬أو‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫رﻗﻢ ﺻﺤﯿﺢ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ )‪ (PosInteger‬أو ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ أﻗﻮاس ) ‪Parenthesized‬‬

‫‪403‬‬
‫ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ ھﺎﻣﺔ‪ :‬ﻻﺣﻆ أن ‪ SEIZE‬و ‪ RELEASE‬ﺗﺄﺗﻲ ﻣﺘﺰاوﺟﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺑﻌﻀﮭﺎ وﻻﯾﻤﻜﻦ إﺳﺘﺨﺪام‬
‫أﺣﺪھﺎ دون اﻵﺧﺮ ﻛﻤﺎ اﻧﮫ ﯾﺠﺐ ان ﺗﺴﺒﻖ ‪ SEIZE‬اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ اﻟﺬي ﯾﻤﺜﻞ اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ أي ‪ ADVANCE‬ﻛﻤﺎ‬
‫ان ‪ RELEASE‬ﯾﺠﺐ أن ﺗﺘﺒﻊ اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ اﻟﺬي ﯾﻤﺜﻞ اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ أي ‪ADVANCE‬‬
‫‪SEIZE‬‬ ‫‪Server‬‬
‫‪ADVANCE‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪RELEASE‬‬ ‫‪Server‬‬
‫ﻧﺪﺧﻞ اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ اﻹﺿﺎﻓﯿﺔ‬
‫ﻧﺘﺮﺟﻢ اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ وﻧﻈﮭﺮ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ‬
‫‪404‬‬
‫ﻧﺠﺮي اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻛﺎﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ‪ START 100‬وﯾﻨﺘﺞ‬
‫‪405‬‬
‫‪ GENERATE‬ﺣﺘﻰ‬ ‫ﻻﺣﻆ أن اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪ SEIZE‬ﻣﻨﻊ دﺧﻮل اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﻮﻟﺪﯾﻦ ﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ‬
‫ﯾﺘﻢ إﻓﺮاغ اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪ ADVANCE‬ﻣﻦ أي ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﮫ ﻣﻤﺎ ﺳﺒﺐ ﺗﺰاﺣﻢ ﺷﺪﯾﺪ ﻋﻨﺪ اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ‬
‫‪) GENERATE‬ﻻﺣﻆ ﻋﻼﻣﺔ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر اﻷﺣﻤﺮ إﻟﻰ اﻟﯿﺴﺎر ﻣﻦ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ GENERATE‬ﻓﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة‬
‫اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ ﻛﻤﺎ أن اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪ GENERATE‬ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﺑﮫ ‪ 400‬ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻓﻲ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر( اﯾﻀﺎ ﻻﺣﻆ ان اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ‬
‫‪ SEIZE‬ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﺑﮫ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ واﺣﺪ ﯾﻘﻮم ﺑﺈﺳﺘﻼم اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻤﺮﯾﻦ‪ :‬ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ‪ A‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪ ADVANCE‬ﺑﻘﯿﻢ أﺻﻐﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺤﺎﻟﯿﺔ وﻗﺎرن‬
‫اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‪.‬‬
‫‪406‬‬
‫ﻧﻼﺣﻆ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺜﺎل اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺗﻜﻮن طﺎﺑﻮر أو ﺧﻂ إﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻟﻠﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻤﺎ ھﻲ اﻟﻮﺳﯿﻠﺔ ﻟﺠﻤﻊ إﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺎت‬
‫ﻋﻦ ھﺬا اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر؟ ﻟﮭﺬا اﻟﻐﺮض ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﻗﺎﻟﺒﯿﻦ ﻣﺘﺰاوﺟﯿﻦ ھﻤﺎ ‪ QUEUE‬و اﻟﺬي ﯾﺒﺪأ ﺑﺘﺴﺠﯿﻞ‬
‫اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺎت ﻋﻨﺪ دﺧﻮل ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ إﻟﻰ طﺎﺑﻮر اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر واﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪ DEPART‬و اﻟﺬي ﯾﻨﮭﻲ ﺗﺴﺠﯿﻞ‬
‫اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺎت ﻋﻨﺪ ﺧﺮوج ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻦ طﺎﺑﻮر اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر وﻟﮭﻤﺎ اﻟﺘﺮﻛﯿﺐ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫‪The QUEUE Block:‬‬
‫‪QUEUE‬‬ ‫‪A,B‬‬
‫)‪ (Name‬أو رﻗﻢ‬ ‫رﻗﻢ أو إﺳﻢ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ‪ ،‬وھﻮ ﺿﺮوري وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﯾﻜﻮن إﺳﻢ‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫ﺻﺤﯿﺢ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ )‪ (PosInteger‬أو ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ أﻗﻮاس )‪ (Parenthesized Expression‬أو‬

‫ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم )‪ (SNA‬أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ )‪(SNA*Parameter‬‬
‫ﻋﺪد اﻟﻮﺣﺪات اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺰﯾﺪ ﺑﮭﺎ طﻮل اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر وﻗﯿﻤﺘﮫ اﻹﻓﺘﺮاﺿﯿﺔ ‪ 1‬وھﻮ إﺧﺘﯿﺎري‬ ‫‪B‬‬
‫وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﯾﻜﻮن ﻻﺷﯿﺊ )‪ (Null‬او إﺳﻢ )‪ (Name‬أو رﻗﻢ ﺻﺤﯿﺢ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ )‪(PosInteger‬‬
‫أو ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ أﻗﻮاس ) ‪ (Parenthesized Expression‬أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم )‪(SNA‬‬
‫أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ )‪(SNA*Parameter‬‬
‫‪The DEPART Block:‬‬
‫‪DEPART A,B‬‬
‫)‪ (Name‬أو رﻗﻢ‬ ‫رﻗﻢ أو إﺳﻢ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ‪ ،‬وھﻮ ﺿﺮوري وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﯾﻜﻮن إﺳﻢ‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫ﺻﺤﯿﺢ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ )‪ (PosInteger‬أو ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ أﻗﻮاس )‪(Parenthesized Expression‬‬

‫أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم )‪ (SNA‬أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ )‪(SNA*Parameter‬‬
‫‪407‬‬
‫إﺧﺘﯿﺎري‬ ‫ﻋﺪد اﻟﻮﺣﺪات اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﻨﻘﺺ ﺑﮭﺎ طﻮل اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر وﻗﯿﻤﺘﮫ اﻹﻓﺘﺮاﺿﯿﺔ ‪ 1‬وھﻮ‬ ‫‪B‬‬
‫وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﯾﻜﻮن ﻻﺷﯿﺊ )‪ (Null‬او إﺳﻢ )‪ (Name‬أو رﻗﻢ ﺻﺤﯿﺢ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ‬

‫)‪ (PosInteger‬أو ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ أﻗﻮاس ) ‪ (Parenthesized Expression‬أو ﺻﻔﺔ‬
‫ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم )‪ (SNA‬أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ )‪(SNA*Parameter‬‬
‫ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ ھﺎﻣﺔ‪ :‬ﻻﺣﻆ أن ‪ QUEUE‬و ‪ DEPART‬ﺗﺄﺗﻲ ﻣﺘﺰاوﺟﺔ ﻣﻊ ﺑﻌﻀﮭﺎ وﻻﯾﻤﻜﻦ إﺳﺘﺨﺪام‬

‫أﺣﺪھﺎ دون اﻵﺧﺮ ﻛﻤﺎ اﻧﮫ ﯾﺠﺐ ان ﺗﺴﺒﻖ ‪ QUEUE‬اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ اﻟﺬي ﯾﻤﺜﻞ إﺳﺘﻼم اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ أي ‪SEIZE‬‬
‫ﻛﻤﺎ ان ‪ DEPART‬ﯾﺠﺐ أن ﺗﺘﺒﻌﮫ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﺔ ﻣﻮﺿﻊ اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪ DEPART‬ﯾﺤﺪد اﻟﻨﻘﻄﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺘﻮﻗﻒ‬
‫ﻓﯿﮭﺎ ﺗﺴﺠﯿﻞ زﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻣﻦ ﻟﺤﻈﺔ دﺧﻮل اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪ QUEUE‬وﯾﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻣﻮﻗﻌﮭﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﻣﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج أو اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺗﻄﻮﯾﺮ ﻟﻠﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﯾﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻤﻊ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﻼت ﻋﻦ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر‬
‫ﻧﺘﺮﺟﻢ وﻧﺠﺮي اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ وﻟﻜﻦ ﺳﻮف ﻧﻘﺪم ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺟﺪﯾﺪة ﺗﺴﻤﻰ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ وﻧﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ ﻛﻨﺎﻓﺬة‬
‫اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﺎ‬
‫ﻓﺘﻈﮭﺮ‬
‫‪408‬‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ اﻧﮫ ﻻﯾﻈﮭﺮ أي ﺷﯿﺊ ﻓﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ ﻗﺒﻞ إﺟﺮاء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻓﻌﻼ‪ ،‬اﻵن ﻧﺨﺘﺎر ‪START 100‬‬
‫ﻓﯿﻨﺘﺞ‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ‪:‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻼت‪:‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ‪:‬‬
‫‪409‬‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ أن اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ﺗﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﻨﺪ اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪ QUEUE‬واﻧﺘﮭﺖ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة واﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ﯾﺤﻮي ﻋﻠﻰ ‪400‬‬
‫ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻻﺣﻆ ان ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ ھﻲ ‪ 0.998‬وھﻲ ﻋﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﺟﺪا وﺗﻌﻜﺲ ﻣﺪي إﻧﺸﻐﺎل اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ ﻛﻤﺎ‬
‫أن اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر وﺻﻞ طﻮﻟﮫ اﻷﻗﺼﻰ إﻟﻰ ‪ 402‬ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ‪ .‬أﻧﻈﺮ إﻟﻰ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ وﻧﺎﻓﺬﺗﻲ اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ‬
‫واﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻼت و ﺳﺠﻞ ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺎﺗﻚ‪ ،‬أﺟﺮي ﺗﺠﺎرب ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج وذﻟﻚ ﺑﺘﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﻣﻌﻠﻢ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ‬
‫‪ ADVANCE‬وﻻﺣﻆ ﻣﺎذا ﯾﺤﺪث‪.‬‬
‫‪410‬‬
‫ﻧﻄﻮر اﻟﻤﺜﺎل اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺑﺈدﺧﺎل ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم وذﻟﻚ ﺑﺠﻌﻞ أزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﺗﺘﺒﻊ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ‬
‫) (‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎوي ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 3‬و ‪ 7‬أو ‪ U 3,7‬وﯾﺮﻣﺰ ﻟﮭﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺮﻛﯿﺐ ‪ GPSS‬ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ‪ 5 ± 2‬ﺣﯿﺚ ‪5‬‬
‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ و ‪ 2‬ﻧﺼﻒ ﻣﺠﺎل زﻣﻦ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ وﯾﻜﺘﺐ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ اﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫‪GENERATE‬‬ ‫‪5,2‬‬
‫وﯾﺼﺒﺢ اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ‬ ‫أﯾﻀﺎ ﺳﻨﺠﻌﻞ زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﺄﺧﯿﺮ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﯾﺘﺒﻊ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎوي ‪4 ± 1‬‬
‫‪ADVANCE‬‬ ‫‪4,1‬‬
‫ﻧﺠﺮي ھﺬا اﻟﺘﻌﺪﯾﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‬
‫ﻧﺘﺮﺟﻢ اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ وﻧﻈﮭﺮ ﻧﻮاﻓﺬ اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ واﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻼت ﻛﻤﺎ ﻧﻘﺪم ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺟﺪﯾﺪة ھﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻄﻮاﺑﯿﺮ‬
‫وﻧﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ ﻛﻤﺎ ﺣﺼﻠﻨﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﻮاﻓﺬ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‬
‫وﻧﺠﺮي اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻓﯿﻨﺘﺞ‬

‫‪411‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻄﻮاﺑﯿﺮ‪:‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ‪:‬‬
‫ﺗﻤﺮﯾﻦ‪ :‬ﯾﺘﺮك ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﺗﻔﺴﯿﺮ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‪.‬‬
‫‪412‬‬
‫ﻟﻨﻄﻮر اﻟﻤﺜﺎل اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺑﺤﯿﺚ ﻧﻜﻮن ﺟﺪول ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﺗﻜﺮاري ﻷﺣﺪ ﺻﻔﺎت اﻟﻨﻈﺎم وﯾﺘﻢ ذﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﻷﻣﺮ‬
‫‪The TABLE Command:‬‬
‫‪NAME‬‬ ‫‪TABLE‬‬ ‫‪A,B,C,D‬‬
‫ﺣﯿﺚ ‪ NAME‬ﻋﻼﻣﺔ او إﺳﻢ ﻟﻠﺠﺪول وﺿﺮوري وﺟﻮده وﯾﺠﺐ أن ﯾﻜﻮن إﺳﻢ‬

‫اﻟﻌﻮاﻣﻞ‪:‬‬
‫ﺿﺮوري‬ ‫ﺣﺠﺔ اﻟﺠﺪول وھﻮ إﺳﻢ أو رﻣﺰ ﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺮاد ﺟﺪوﻟﺘﮭﺎ وھﻮ‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﯾﻜﻮن إﺳﻢ )‪ (Name‬أو رﻗﻢ )‪ (Number‬او ﺣﺮوف )‪ (String‬أو ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ‬
‫أﻗﻮاس )‪ (Parenthesized Expression‬أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم )‪(SNA‬‬
‫اﻟﺤﺪ اﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﻟﻠﻔﺌﺔ اﻻوﻟﻰ وھﻮ ﺿﺮوري وﯾﺠﺐ ان ﯾﻜﻮن رﻗﻢ‬ ‫‪B‬‬
‫ﺣﺠﻢ اﻟﻔﺌﺎت وھﻮ ﺿﺮوري وﯾﺠﺐ ان ﯾﻜﻮن رﻗﻢ‬ ‫‪C‬‬
‫ﻋﺪد اﻟﻔﺌﺂت وھﻮ ﺿﺮوري وﯾﺠﺐ ان ﯾﻜﻮن رﻗﻢ ﺻﺤﯿﺢ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ‬ ‫‪D‬‬
‫ﯾﺄﺗﻲ ﻣﻊ اﻷﻣﺮ ‪ TABLE‬اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪ TABULATE‬اﻟﺬي ﯾﻘﻮم ﻓﻌﻠﯿﺎ ﺑﺠﻤﻊ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻼزﻣﺔ وﺟﺪوﻟﺘﮭﺎ‬
‫ﺣﯿﺚ اﻷﻣﺮ ‪ TABLE‬ﯾﻌﻄﻲ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻛﯿﻔﯿﺔ ﺷﻜﻞ وﺗﻜﻮﯾﻦ اﻟﺠﺪول وﻟﯿﺲ ﻟﮫ ﻋﻼﻗﺔ ﺑﺠﻤﻌﮭﺎ‪ .‬اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ‬
‫‪ TABULATE‬ﻟﮫ اﻟﺘﺮﻛﯿﺐ‬
‫‪The TABULATE Block:‬‬
‫‪TABULATE‬‬ ‫‪A,B‬‬
‫إﺳﻢ اﻟﺠﺪول أو رﻗﻤﮫ وھﻮ ﺿﺮوري وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﯾﻜﻮن إﺳﻢ )‪ (Name‬أو رﻗﻢ ﺻﺤﯿﺢ‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫ﻣﻮﺟﺐ )‪ (PosInteger‬أو ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ أﻗﻮاس ) ‪ (Parenthesized Expression‬أو ﺻﻔﺔ‬
‫‪413‬‬
‫ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم )‪ (SNA‬أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ )‪(SNA*Parameter‬‬
‫ﻋﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻮزن وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﯾﻜﻮن ﻻﺷﯿﺊ )‪ (Null‬او إﺳﻢ )‪ (Name‬أو رﻗﻢ )‪ (Number‬أو‬ ‫‪B‬‬
‫ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ أﻗﻮاس) ‪ (Parenthesized Expression‬أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم )‪ (SNA‬أو‬

‫ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ )‪(SNA*Parameter‬‬
‫ﻟﻨﻮﺟﺪ اﻵن اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري ﻟﺰﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻜﻮث ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ‪ M1‬أو زﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﻘﺎل ‪ Transit Time‬وھﻮ‬
‫ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﻟﮭﺎ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ‬
‫ﻧﺘﺒﻊ اﻟﻤﻌﺘﺎد ﻹﺟﺮاء ھﺬا اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺳﻮف ﻧﻘﺪم ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺟﺪﯾﺪة ﺗﺴﻤﻰ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺠﺪول وﻧﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ‬
‫ﻛﺒﻘﯿﺔ اﻟﻨﻮاﻓﺬ‬
‫ﻋﺪى ان ھﺬه اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة ﺗﻌﻄﯿﻚ ﻓﻲ ﺧﯿﺎرھﺎ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺑﺄﺳﻤﺎء اﻟﺠﺪاول اﻟﻤﻤﻜﻦ إﺧﺘﯿﺎرھﺎ‬
‫‪414‬‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ اﻧﮫ ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﺟﺪول واﺣﺪ ﻓﻘﻂ ھﻮ ‪ TTime‬وھﻮ اﻟﺬي ﯾﺘﻢ إﺧﺘﯿﺎره طﺒﻌﺎ ﻓﺘﻈﮭﺮ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ اﻧﮭﺎ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة رﺳﻢ‬

‫ﻧﺠﺮي اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻣﻊ ‪ START 500‬ﻓﯿﻨﺘﺞ‬
‫‪415‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺠﺪاول‪:‬‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ اﻧﮫ ﻧﺘﺞ ﻣﺪرج ﺗﻜﺮاري ﻟﺰﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺮور ﺑﺎﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪.‬‬

‫‪416‬‬
FACILITY ENTRIES UTIL. AVE. TIME AVAIL. OWNER PEND INTER RETRY
DELAY
SERVER 500 0.798 3.991 1 0 0 0 0
0
QUEUE MAX CONT. ENTRY ENTRY(0) AVE.CONT. AVE.TIME AVE.(-0)

RETRY
LINE 1 0 500 366 0.048 0.239 0.892
0
TABLE MEAN STD.DEV. RANGE RETRY FREQUENCY

CUM.%
TTIME 4.231 0.772 0
3.000 - 4.000 202
40.40
4.000 - 5.000 243
89.00
5.000 - 6.000 45
98.00
6.000 - 7.000 9
99.80
7.000 - 8.000 1
100.00
.‫ ﯾﺘﺮك ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﺗﻔﺴﯿﺮ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‬:‫ﺗﻤﺮﯾﻦ‬
417
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﻘﺪم ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻤﺜﺎل اﻷﻣﺮ ‪ QTABLE‬واﻟﺬي ﯾﺠﺪول اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري ﻷزﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر وﻟﮫ‬
‫اﻟﺘﺮﻛﯿﺐ‬
‫‪The QTABLE Command:‬‬
‫‪NAME‬‬ ‫‪QTABLE‬‬ ‫‪A,B,C,D‬‬
‫ﺣﯿﺚ ‪ NAME‬ﻋﻼﻣﺔ او إﺳﻢ ﻟﻠﺠﺪول وﺿﺮوري وﺟﻮده وﯾﺠﺐ أن ﯾﻜﻮن إﺳﻢ‬

‫اﻟﻌﻮاﻣﻞ‪:‬‬
‫إﺳﻢ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر وھﻮ ﺿﺮوري وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﯾﻜﻮن إﺳﻢ )‪ (Name‬أو رﻗﻢ ﺻﺤﯿﺢ‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫)‪(PosInteger‬‬
‫اﻟﺤﺪ اﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﻟﻠﻔﺌﺔ اﻻوﻟﻰ وھﻮ ﺿﺮوري وﯾﺠﺐ ان ﯾﻜﻮن رﻗﻢ‬ ‫‪B‬‬
‫ﺣﺠﻢ اﻟﻔﺌﺎت وھﻮ ﺿﺮوري وﯾﺠﺐ ان ﯾﻜﻮن رﻗﻢ‬ ‫‪C‬‬
‫ﻋﺪد اﻟﻔﺌﺂت وھﻮ ﺿﺮوري وﯾﺠﺐ ان ﯾﻜﻮن رﻗﻢ ﺻﺤﯿﺢ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ‬ ‫‪D‬‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﺠﺮب ھﺬا اﻷﻣﺮ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺜﺎﻟﻨﺎ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‬

‫‪TTime‬‬ ‫‪TABLE‬‬ ‫‪M1,1,1,10‬‬
‫‪QTime‬‬ ‫‪QTABLE‬‬ ‫‪Line,1,1,10‬‬
‫‪QUEUE‬‬ ‫‪Line‬‬
‫‪DEPART‬‬ ‫‪Line‬‬
‫‪ADVANCE‬‬ ‫‪4,1‬‬
‫‪TABULATE‬‬ ‫‪TTime‬‬
‫اﻧﻈﺮ ﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة ﺟﺪول اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫‪418‬‬
‫ﺛﻢ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺤﻮار‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ ان ھﺬه اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة ﺗﻌﻄﻰ إﻣﻜﺎﻧﯿﺔ إﺧﺘﯿﺎر أي ﺟﺪول وﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻧﺨﺘﺎر ‪Qtime‬‬
‫ﺗﻈﮭﺮ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة‬
‫أدﺧﻞ ھﺬا اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ وأﺟﺮه ﺑـ ‪START 500‬‬
‫‪419‬‬
‫ﺟﻤﯿﻊ اﻟﻤﺨﺮاﺟﺎت اﻻﺧﺮى ھﻲ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺜﺎل اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ وﯾﻈﮭﺮ ﺟﺪول اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر‬
‫واﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ‬
DELAY
SERVER 500 0.798 3.991 1 0 0 0 0
0

RETRY
LINE 1 0 500 366 0.048 0.239 0.892
0

CUM.%
TTIME 4.231 0.772 0
3.000 - 4.000 202
40.40
4.000 - 5.000 243
89.00
5.000 - 6.000 45
98.00
6.000 - 7.000 9
99.80
7.000 - 8.000 1
100.00
QTIME 0.239 0.524 0
_ - 1.000 454
90.80
1.000 - 2.000 35
97.80
420
‫‪2.000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪3.000‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬
‫‪99.80‬‬
‫‪3.000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪4.000‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪100.00‬‬
‫ﺗﻤﺮﯾﻦ‪ :‬ﯾﺘﺮك ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﺗﻔﺴﯿﺮ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‪.‬‬
‫‪421‬‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﺴﺘﻌﺮض ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻤﺜﺎل اﻷﻣﺮ ‪ FUNCTION‬واﻟﺬي ﯾﻌﺮف طﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﺒﺤﺚ ﻓﻲ ﺟﺪول‬
‫وﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻟﻠﻤﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻋﯿﻨﻲ ﻣﻌﻄﻰ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻜﻞ ﺟﺪول وﻟﮭﺎ اﻟﺘﺮﻛﯿﺐ‬
‫‪The FUNCTION Command:‬‬
‫‪NAME‬‬ ‫‪FUNCTION‬‬ ‫‪A,B‬‬
‫ﺣﯿﺚ اﻟﻌﻤﺎل‬
‫ﺣﺠﺔ اﻟﺪاﻟﺔ وھﻲ ﺿﺮورﯾﺔ وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﯾﻜﻮن إﺳﻢ )‪ (Name‬أو رﻗﻢ ﺻﺤﯿﺢ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫)‪ (PosInteger‬أو ﻧﺺ )‪ (String‬أوﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ أﻗﻮاس ) ‪Parenthesized Expression‬‬
‫( أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم )‪ (SNA‬أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ )‪(SNA*Parameter‬‬

‫ﻧﻮع اﻟﺪاﻟﺔ )ﺣﺮف واﺣﺪ( ﯾﺘﺒﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻔﻮر ﺑﻌﺪد أزواج اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﻓﻲ اﻟﺪاﻟﺔ وھﻮ‬ ‫‪B‬‬
‫ﺿﺮوري‬
‫أﻧﻮاع اﻟﺪوال‪:‬‬
‫)‪ (Continuous‬وﯾﻌﺮف داﻟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻮع ﻣﺴﺘﻤﺮ‬ ‫‪C‬‬
‫)‪ (Discrete‬وﯾﻌﺮف داﻟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻮع ﻣﺘﻘﻄﻊ‬ ‫‪D‬‬
‫)‪ (Discrete Attribute‬ﯾﻌﺮف داﻟﺔ وﺻﻔﯿﺔ‬ ‫‪E‬‬
‫)‪ (List‬داﻟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻮع ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ‬ ‫‪L‬‬
‫)‪ (List Attribue‬داﻟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻮع ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺻﻔﺎت‬ ‫‪M‬‬
‫وﺳﻮف ﻧﺸﺮح ﻛﻞ ﻧﻮع ﻋﻨﺪ اﻟﺘﻄﺮق ﻟﮭﺎ ﺑﻤﺜﺎل‪.‬‬
‫‪Single Channel Queue‬‬ ‫طﺎﺑﻮر اﻟﺼﻒ اﻟﻮاﺣﺪ‬

‫‪422‬‬
Arrivals Cumulative
(Minutes) Probability Probability
1 0.125 0.125
2 0.125 0.250
3 0.125 0.375
4 0.125 0.500
5 0.125 0.625
6 0.125 0.750
7 0.125 0.875
8 0.125 1.000
:‫ دﻗﺎﺋﻖ ﺑﺈﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻت ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬6 ‫ و‬1 ‫ ﺗﺘﺮاوح ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ‬Sevice times ‫أزﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ‬
423
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬ ‫‪0.30‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.30‬‬ ‫‪0.60‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.85‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬ ‫‪0.95‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﺑﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة وﺻﻮل وﺧﺪﻣﺔ ‪ 500‬زﺑﻮﻧﺎ‪.‬‬

‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﻀﻊ ﺟﺪول ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ أزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻜﻞ داﻟﺔ‬
‫‪IAT‬‬ ‫‪FUNCTION RN1,D8‬‬

‫‪0.125,1/0.25,2/0.375,3/0.5,4/0.625,5/0.75,6/0.875,7/1.0,8‬‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ‪:‬‬
‫‪ (1‬إﺳﻢ اﻟﺪاﻟﺔ ھﻮ ‪IAT‬‬
‫‪ (2‬ﺣﺠﺔ اﻟﺪاﻟﺔ ھﻮ ﻣﻮﻟﺪ اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ اﻷول ﻓﻲ ‪) GPSS‬ﻻﺣﻆ ان ‪ GPSS‬ﯾﺤﻮي ‪ 16‬ﻣﻮﻟﺪا‬

‫ﻟﻸرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ RN1‬وﺣﺘﻰ ‪(RN16‬‬
‫‪ (3‬ﻧﻮع اﻟﺪاﻟﺔ ﻣﺘﻘﻄﻊ وﯾﺤﻮي ‪ 8‬أزواج ﻣﻦ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت‬
‫‪ (4‬ﺗﺪﺧﻞ اﻷزواج ﻓﻲ ﺳﻄﺮ ﻣﻨﻔﺼﻞ وﺑﺪون ﺗﺮك ﻓﺮاغ ﻓﻲ اول اﻟﺴﻄﺮ وﺗﺮﺗﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ‬
‫‪ F(x1),x1/F(x2),x2/…/F(xn),xn‬ﺣﯿﺚ )‪ F(x‬ﻗﯿﻤﺔ داﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺮاﻛﻤﻲ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ‬
‫اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ‪X=x‬‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺜﻞ ﻧﻀﻊ ﺟﺪول ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ أزﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺷﻜﻞ داﻟﺔ‬
‫‪STime FUNCTION RN1,D6‬‬

‫‪0.1,1/0.3,2/0.6,3/0.85,4/0.95,5/1.0,6‬‬
‫‪424‬‬
‫وﻧﻄﻮر اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‬
‫‪TTime‬‬ ‫‪TABLE‬‬ ‫‪M1,1,1,10‬‬

‫‪QTime QTABLE‬‬ ‫‪Line,1,1,10‬‬
‫‪IAT‬‬ ‫‪FUNCTION‬‬ ‫‪RN1,D8‬‬
‫‪0.125,1/0.25,2/0.375,3/0.5,4/0.625,5/0.75,6/0.875,7/1.0,8‬‬
‫‪STime‬‬ ‫‪FUNCTION‬‬ ‫‪RN1,D6‬‬
‫‪0.1,1/0.3,2/0.6,3/0.85,4/0.95,5/1.0,6‬‬
‫‪GENERATE‬‬ ‫‪FN$IAT‬‬
‫‪ADVANCE‬‬ ‫‪FN$STime‬‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ ﻛﯿﻒ اﺳﺘﺨﺪﻣﻨﺎ اﻟﺪاﻟﺘﯿﻦ ﻓﻲ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ أزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ وﺻﻮل‬

‫‪GENERATE‬‬ ‫‪FN$IAT‬‬
‫اﺧﺬﻧﺎ إﺳﻢ اﻟﺪاﻟﺔ ‪ IAT‬وﺳﺒﻘﻨﺎه ﺑﺮﻣﺰ اﻟﺪاﻟﺔ ‪ FN$‬وﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻓﻌﻠﻨﺎ ﻧﻔﺲ اﻟﺸﯿﺊ ﻷزﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ‬
‫‪ ADVANCE‬ﻧﺪﺧﻞ اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ وﻧﺠﺮﯾﮫ ‪ 500‬ﻣﺮة‬
‫واﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‪:‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻼت‬
‫‪425‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻄﻮاﺑﯿﺮ‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺟﺪول اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر‬
DELAY
SERVER 501 0.749 3.232 1 501 0 0 0
0

RETRY
LINE 6 1 501 229 0.509 2.196 4.044
0

CUM.%
TTIME 5.438 3.513 0
_ - 1.000 30
6.00
1.000 - 2.000 48
15.60
2.000 - 3.000 76
30.80
3.000 - 4.000 85
47.80
4.000 - 5.000 68
61.40
426
‫‪5.000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪6.000‬‬ ‫‪52‬‬
‫‪71.80‬‬
‫‪6.000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪7.000‬‬ ‫‪43‬‬
‫‪80.40‬‬
‫‪7.000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪8.000‬‬ ‫‪30‬‬
‫‪86.40‬‬
‫‪8.000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪9.000‬‬ ‫‪13‬‬
‫‪89.00‬‬
‫‪9.000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫_‬ ‫‪55‬‬
‫‪100.00‬‬
‫‪QTIME‬‬ ‫‪2.200‬‬ ‫‪3.227‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫_‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪1.000‬‬ ‫‪284‬‬
‫‪56.80‬‬
‫‪1.000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪2.000‬‬ ‫‪51‬‬
‫‪67.00‬‬
‫‪2.000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪3.000‬‬ ‫‪46‬‬
‫‪76.20‬‬
‫‪3.000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪4.000‬‬ ‫‪37‬‬
‫‪83.60‬‬
‫‪4.000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪5.000‬‬ ‫‪24‬‬
‫‪88.40‬‬
‫‪5.000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪6.000‬‬ ‫‪17‬‬
‫‪91.80‬‬
‫‪6.000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪7.000‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬
‫‪93.60‬‬
‫‪7.000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪8.000‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫‪94.80‬‬
‫‪8.000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪9.000‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬
‫‪96.40‬‬
‫‪9.000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫_‬ ‫‪18‬‬
‫‪100.00‬‬
‫ﺗﻤﺮﯾﻦ‪:‬‬
‫ﯾﺘﺮك ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻟﺐ إﺳﺘﺨﺮاج ﻣﻘﺎﯾﯿﺲ اﻷداء ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺮﺟﺎت‬
‫‪427‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻤﺜﺎل ﺳﻮف ﻧﺴﺘﻌﺮض ﻛﯿﻔﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﺸﻌﺐ واﻹﻧﺘﻘﺎل ﻣﻦ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ إﻟﻰ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ آﺧﺮ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻏﯿﺮ‬
‫ﻣﺘﺴﻠﺴﻞ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮف ﻧﺴﺘﻌﺮض اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪ TRANSFER‬واﻟﺬي ﯾﺴﺒﺐ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻨﺸﻂ اﻹﻧﺘﻘﺎل إﻟﻰ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ‬
‫آﺧﺮ ﻻﯾﺘﺒﻊ اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ اﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ ﺗﺤﺖ ﺷﺮوط ﻣﻌﯿﻨﺔ وﻟﮫ اﻟﺘﺮﻛﯿﺐ‬
‫‪The TRANSFER Block:‬‬
‫‪TRANSFER‬‬ ‫‪A,B,C,D‬‬
‫ﺣﯿﺚ اﻟﻌﻤﺎل‬
‫طﻮر ﻗﺎﻟﺐ اﻹﻧﺘﻘﺎل وﺳﻮف ﻧﺼﻔﮫ ﻻﺣﻘﺎ وھﻮ إﺧﺘﯿﺎري وﯾﺠﺐ ان ﯾﻜﻮن ‪ BOTH‬او‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫‪ ALL‬او ‪ PICK‬او ‪ FN‬او ‪ P‬او ‪ SBR‬او ﻛﺴﺮ ‪ fraction‬أو إﺳﻢ ‪ Name‬او ﻋﺪد ﺻﺤﯿﺢ‬
‫ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ‪ PosInteger‬او ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ أﻗﻮاس ‪ ParenthesizedExpression‬او ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم ‪ SNA‬او ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ ‪SNA*Parameter‬‬
‫رﻗﻢ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ أو ﻣﻜﺎن أو ﻣﻘﺪار اﻟﺰﯾﺎدة ﻓﻲ داﻟﺔ أو اﻟﻄﻮر ‪ P‬وھﻮ إﺧﺘﯿﺎري وﯾﺠﺐ ان ﯾﻜﻮن‬ ‫‪B‬‬
‫إﻣﺎ ﺧﺎﻟﻰ ‪ Null‬او إﺳﻢ ‪ Name‬او ﻋﺪد ﺻﺤﯿﺢ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ‪ PosInteger‬او ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ أﻗﻮاس‬
‫‪ ParenthesizedExpression‬او ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم ‪ SNA‬او ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ‬
‫‪SNA*Parameter‬‬
‫رﻗﻢ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ أو ﻣﻜﺎن أو ﻣﻘﺪار اﻟﺰﯾﺎدة ﻓﻲ داﻟﺔ أو اﻟﻄﻮر ‪ P‬وھﻮ إﺧﺘﯿﺎري وﯾﺠﺐ ان ﯾﻜﻮن‬ ‫‪C‬‬
‫رﻗﻢ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ أو ﻣﻜﺎن ﻟﻠﻄﻮر ‪ ALL‬وﻗﯿﻤﺘﮫ اﻹﻓﺘﺮاﺿﯿﺔ ‪ 1‬وھﻮ إﺧﺘﯿﺎري وﯾﺠﺐ ان ﯾﻜﻮن‬ ‫‪D‬‬
‫أطﻮار اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪TRANSFER‬‬
‫وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﻘﺎل ﻏﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺸﺮوط إﻟﻰ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ﻣﺤﺪد ﺑﺎﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ‪ B‬وذﻟﻚ‬ ‫اﻟﻄﻮر ﻏﯿﺮ اﻟﺸﺮطﻲ‬
‫ﺑﺈﻏﻔﺎل اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ‪ A‬ﻣﺜﻞ‬
‫‪428‬‬
‫‪TRANSFER‬‬ ‫‪,NewPlace‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﻜﻮن اﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻞ ‪ A‬ﻏﯿﺮ أﺳﺎﺳﻲ ﻓﺈن ھﺬا اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ﯾﻌﻤﻞ ﻓﻲ طﻮر‬ ‫اﻟﻄﻮر اﻟﻜﺴﺮي‬
‫اﻟﻜﺴﺮ ﻓﻤﺜﻼ‬
‫‪TRANSFER 0.75,,NewPlace‬‬
‫ﻓﺈن اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻨﺸﻂ اﻟﺬي ﯾﺪﺧﻞ ھﺬا اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ﯾﺬھﺐ ﻓﻲ ‪ 75%‬ﻣﻦ‬

‫اﻟﺤﺎﻻت إﻟﻰ اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ ‪NewPlace‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﻜﻮن اﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻞ ‪ A‬ھﻮ اﻟﻜﻠﻤﺔ ‪ BOTH‬ﻓﺈن اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻨﺸﻂ‬ ‫طﻮر ‪BOTH‬‬
‫ﯾﺤﺎول اﻟﺪﺧﻮل إﻟﻰ اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ اﻟﺬي ﯾﻮﺟﺪ رﻣﺰه ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻞ ‪ B‬ﻓﺈن ﻟﻢ‬
‫ﯾﺴﺘﻄﻊ ذﻟﻚ ﯾﺤﺎول اﻟﺪﺧﻮل إﻟﻰ اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ اﻟﺬي ﯾﻮﺟﺪ رﻣﺰه ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﻌﺎﻣﻞ‬
‫‪ C‬ﻓﺈن ﻟﻢ ﯾﺴﺘﻄﻊ ذﻟﻚ ﯾﻌﯿﺪ اﻟﻤﺤﺎوﻟﺔ ﻣﻊ ھﺬﯾﻦ اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺒﯿﻦ ﺣﺘﻰ ﯾﺘﻤﻜﻦ ﻣﻦ‬
‫دﺧﻮل اﺣﺪھﺎ وﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻛﻮن ﻛﻼ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺒﯿﻦ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ دﺧﻮﻟﮭﺎ ﯾﺪﺧﻞ‬
‫اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ اﻟﺬي رﻣﺰه ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ‪ B‬ﻣﺜﻞ‬
‫‪TRANSFER BOTH,FirstPlace,SecondPlace‬‬
‫وھﺬا ﯾﺠﻌﻞ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻨﺸﻂ اﻟﺪﺧﻮل إﻟﻰ اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ اﻟﻤﺮﻣﺰ ‪FirstPlace‬‬
‫ﻓﺈن ﻟﻢ ﯾﺘﻤﻜﻦ ﯾﺤﺎول اﻟﺪﺧﻮل إﻟﻰ اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ اﻟﻤﺮﻣﺰ ‪ SecondPlace‬ﻓﺈن‬

‫ﻟﻢ ﯾﺘﻤﻜﻦ ﯾﻌﯿﺪ اﻟﻤﺤﺎوﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻮل ﻟﻠﻘﺎﻟﺐ اﻷول وھﻜﺬا وﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺗﻤﻜﻨﮫ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻮل ﻷي ﻣﻨﮭﻢ ﺗﻜﻮن اﻷﻓﻀﻠﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﺎﻟﺐ اﻟﻤﺮﻣﺰ ‪FirstPlace‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻄﻮر ﯾﺘﻢ إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻋﺪد ﻛﺒﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ ﻹﻣﻜﺎﻧﯿﺔ إﻧﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫طﻮر ‪ALL‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻨﺸﻂ إﻟﯿﮭﺎ وﯾﺮﻣﺰ أول ھﺬه اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ ﺑﺮﻣﺰ وﻛﺬﻟﻚ آﺧﺮھﺎ‬
‫وﯾﺘﻢ اﻹﻧﺘﻘﺎل ﺑﯿﻨﮭﺎ ﺣﺘﻰ ﯾﺴﻤﺢ أﺣﺪ ھﺬه اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﺧﻮل إﻟﯿﮫ وﺗﻜﻮن‬
‫اﻷﻓﻀﻠﯿﺔ ﺣﺴﺐ اﻟﺘﺮﺗﯿﺐ اﻟﺘﺘﺎﺑﻌﻲ ﻟﻠﻘﻮاﻟﺐ ﻓﻤﺜﻼ‬
‫‪TRANSFER ALL,FirstPlace,LastPlace,2‬‬
‫ﯾﺘﻢ إﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ اﻟﻤﺮﻣﺰ ‪ FirstPlace‬ﻓﺈن ﺗﻌﺰر دﺧﻮﻟﮫ ﯾﻔﺤﺺ‬
‫اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ اﻟﺬي ﯾﺘﻠﯿﮫ ﺑﻘﺎﻟﺒﯿﻦ )ﻻﺣﻆ ‪ 2‬ﻓﻲ ﻣﻜﺎن اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ‪ (D‬وھﻜﺬا ﺣﺘﻰ‬
‫ﻧﺼﻞ اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ اﻟﻤﺮﻣﺰ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ ‪ LastPlace‬وﺑﻌﺪ ﻓﺤﺺ إﻣﻜﺎﻧﯿﺔ اﻟﺪﺧﻮل‬
‫اﻟﯿﮫ أم ﻻ ﯾﻌﺎد اﻟﻔﺤﺺ واﻟﻤﺤﺎوﻟﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ اﻷول وھﻜﺬا‬
‫ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻄﻮر ﯾﺘﻢ إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻋﺪد ﻛﺒﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ ﻹﻣﻜﺎﻧﯿﺔ إﻧﺘﻘﺎل‬ ‫طﻮر ‪PICK‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻨﺸﻂ اﻟﯿﮭﺎ وﯾﺮﻣﺰ أول ھﺬه اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ ﺑﺮﻣﺰ وﻛﺬﻟﻚ آﺧﺮھﺎ‬
‫وﯾﺘﻢ اﻹﺧﺘﯿﺎر ﺑﯿﻨﮭﺎ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﺣﺘﻰ ﯾﺴﻤﺢ أﺣﺪ ھﺬه اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ‬
‫‪429‬‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﺪﺧﻮل إﻟﯿﮫ وﺗﻜﻮن اﻷﻓﻀﻠﯿﺔ ﻷول ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ﺗﻢ إﺧﺘﯿﺎره ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺎ ﻓﻤﺜﻼ‬
‫‪TRANSFER PICK,FirstPlace,LastPlace‬‬
‫ﯾﺘﻢ إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺎ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ اﻟﻤﺮﻣﺰ ‪ FirstPlace‬واﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺮﻣﺰ ‪ LastPlace‬وﯾﺘﻢ دﺧﻮل اول ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ﯾﺴﻤﺢ ﺑﺬﻟﻚ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻄﻮر ﯾﺘﻢ اﻹﻧﺘﻘﺎل إﻟﻰ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ﯾﺨﺘﺎر ﻣﻦ ﺗﻘﯿﯿﻢ داﻟﺔ ﺗﺤﺪد‬ ‫طﻮر اﻟﺪاﻟﺔ ‪FN‬‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ‪ B‬وإﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﻣﻘﺪار زﯾﺎدة إﺧﺘﯿﺎري ﯾﺤﺪد ﺑﺎﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ‪ C‬ﻓﻤﺜﻼ‬

‫‪TRANSFER FN,Function1,5‬‬
‫ﺗﻘﺪر اﻟﺪاﻟﺔ ‪ Function1‬وﯾﻀﺎف إﻟﯿﮭﺎ ‪ 5‬ﻟﺘﺤﺪﯾﺪ اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ اﻟﺬي ﯾﻨﺘﻘﻞ إﻟﯿﮫ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻄﻮر ﯾﻨﺘﻘﻞ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻨﺸﻂ إﻟﻰ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ﯾﺤﺪد ﻣﻮﻗﻌﮫ ﺑﺠﻤﻊ‬ ‫طﻮر اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ ‪P‬‬
‫ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻣﻌﻠﻢ واﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺪدة ﺑﺎﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ‪ C‬وإذا ﻟﻢ ﯾﺤﺪد ‪ C‬ﯾﻨﺘﻘﻞ إﻟﻰ‬

‫اﻟﻤﻮﻗﻊ اﻟﻤﺤﺪد ﺑﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻻﻧﺘﻄﺮق ﻟﮭﺬا اﻟﻄﻮر ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺮﺣﻠﺔ اﻟﺤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬ ‫طﻮر اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ اﻟﻔﺮﻋﻲ‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻻﻧﺘﻄﺮق ﻟﮭﺬا اﻟﻄﻮر ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺮﺣﻠﺔ اﻟﺤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬ ‫طﻮر اﻟﺘﺰاﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪ TRANSFER‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺜﺎل اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫‪430‬‬
‫أﺣﻤﺪ وﺑﻜﺮ ﻟﻠﺨﺪﻣﺔ اﻟﺴﺮﯾﻌﺔ‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.40‬‬ ‫‪0.65‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬ ‫‪0.85‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.30‬‬ ‫‪0.30‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.58‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.83‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0.17‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬
‫ﺟﺪول ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ أزﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﺒﻜﺮ‪:‬‬

‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.60‬‬
‫‪431‬‬
5 0.20 0.80
6 0.20 1.00
.‫اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻟﻤﻌﺮﻓﺔ أداﺋﮫ‬

AHMD ‫ وزﻣﻦ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻷﺣﻤﺪ وﻧﺴﻤﯿﮫ‬IAT ‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﻜﻮن دوال أزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل وﻧﺴﻤﯿﮭﺎ‬
BKR ‫وﻟﺒﻜﺮ وﻧﺴﻤﯿﮫ‬

IAT FUNCTION RN1,D4
0.25,1/0.65,2/0.85,3/1.0,4
AHMD FUNCTION RN1,D4

0.3,2/0.58,3/0.83,4/1.0,5
BKR FUNCTION RN1,D4

0.35,3/0.6,4/0.8,5/1.0,6
‫وﯾﻜﻮن اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬
IAT FUNCTION RN1,D4

0.25,1/0.65,2/0.85,3/1.0,4
AHMD FUNCTION RN1,D4
0.3,2/0.58,3/0.83,4/1.0,5
BKR FUNCTION RN1,D4
0.35,3/0.6,4/0.8,5/1.0,6
TTime TABLE M1,1,1,10
QTime QTABLE Line,1,1,10
GENERATE FN$IAT
QUEUE Line
TRANSFER BOTH,,BAKUR
SEIZE AHMAD
DEPART Line
ADVANCE FN$AHMD
RELEASE AHMAD
TRANSFER ,FIN
BAKUR SEIZE BAKR

DEPART Line
432
‫‪ADVANCE‬‬ ‫‪FN$BKR‬‬
‫‪RELEASE‬‬ ‫‪BAKR‬‬
‫‪FIN‬‬ ‫‪TABULATE‬‬ ‫‪TTime‬‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ ‪ TRANSFER‬اﻷوﻟﻰ اﺳﺘﺨﺪﻣﻨﺎھﺎ ﻓﻲ طﻮر ‪ BOTH‬ﻟﻜﻲ ﻧﻌﻄﻲ اﻷﻓﻀﻠﯿﺔ ﻷﺣﻤﺪ واﻟﺜﺎﻧﯿﺔ‬

‫اﺳﺘﺨﺪﻣﻨﺎھﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻄﻮر ﻏﯿﺮ اﻟﺸﺮطﻲ ﻟﻜﻲ ﻧﻤﻨﻊ اﻟﺰﺑﻮن اﻟﺬي ﺗﺘﻢ ﺧﺪﻣﺘﮫ ﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ أﺣﻤﺪ ﻣﻦ ان ﺗﻌﺎد‬
‫ﺧﺪﻣﺘﮫ ﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ ﺑﻜﺮ‪ .‬أدﺧﻞ ھﺬا اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﻓﻲ ‪ GPSS‬وﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﺮﺟﻤﺘﮫ واﻟﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺻﺤﺔ ﺗﺮﻛﯿﺒﮫ اﻟﻠﻐﻮي‬
‫واﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘﻲ أظﮭﺮ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ‬
‫ﻟﻜﻰ ﻧﺸﺎھﺪ ﻋﻤﻞ اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ ‪ TRANSFER‬ﻧﺠﺮى اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﯾﺪوﯾﺎ وذﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ زر‬
‫واﻟﻤﻜﺘﻮب ﺗﺤﺘﮫ ‪ Step‬واﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮد ﻓﻲ اﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ اﻟﺮﺋﯿﺴﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ‪ .‬ھﺬا ﺳﯿﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪة‬
‫اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺧﻄﻮة ﺧﻄﻮة‪ .‬ﻻﺣﻆ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫‪-1‬‬
‫‪433‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺿﻐﻄﻨﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ Step‬ﺗﻮﻟﺪ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻋﻨﺪ اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪GENERATE‬‬
‫‪-2‬‬
‫اﺗﺠﮫ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ إﻟﻰ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر اﻟﻤﺸﺘﺮك ﻟﻠﺨﺎدﻣﯿﻦ‬

‫‪-3‬‬
‫ﺑﻤﺎ أن ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ أﺣﻤﺪ وﺑﻜﺮ ﺧﺎﻟﻲ وﺑﻤﺎ أن اﻷﻓﻀﻠﯿﺔ ﻷﺣﻤﺪ ﻓﺈن اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﯾﺘﺤﺮك إﻟﻰ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر اﻟﺬي‬
‫ﯾﺆدي ﻟﻺﻣﺴﺎك ﺑﺄﺣﻤﺪ و ﯾﺴﺘﻠﻢ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﺣﻤﺪ‬
‫‪-4‬‬
‫‪434‬‬
‫وذﻟﻚ ﺑﻤﻐﺎدرة اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر )ﻻﺣﻆ ان اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪ SEIZE‬ﺳﻤﺢ ﺑﺪﺧﻮل اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ وﻟﮭﺬا ﻓﺈن ﻣﺪة ﻣﻜﻮﺛﮫ ﻓﻲ‬
‫اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ‪( 0‬‬
‫‪-5‬‬
‫ﯾﺒﺪأ أﺣﻤﺪ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ‬

‫‪-6‬‬
‫‪435‬‬
‫ﯾﺪﺧﻞ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺟﺪﯾﺪ إﻟﻰ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪GENERATE‬‬
‫‪-7‬‬
‫ﯾﺪﺧﻞ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر اﻟﻤﺸﺘﺮك‬

‫‪-8‬‬
‫‪436‬‬
‫ﺑﻤﺎ ان اﺣﻤﺪ ﻣﺸﻐﻮل ﻓﻲ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ اﻟﺰﺑﻮن اﻷول ﻓﺈن ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ TRANSFER‬ﯾﻨﻘﻞ اﻟﺰﺑﻮن اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ إﻟﻰ‬
‫ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ SEIZE‬اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ ‪ BAKUR‬وذﻟﻚ ﻟﻜﻲ ﯾﺒﺪأ ﺑﻜﺮ ﺑﺨﺪﻣﺘﮫ‪.‬‬
‫وھﻜﺬا ﺗﺴﺘﻤﺮ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺣﺘﻰ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺘﮭﺎ )أﻛﻤﻞ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة اوﺗﻮﻣﺎﺗﯿﻜﯿﺎ(‪.‬‬
‫‪437‬‬
:‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺟﺪول اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر‬
:‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺟﺪول زﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻜﻮث ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‬
:‫اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ‬
DELAY
AHMAD 299 0.860 3.344 1 0 0 0 0
0
BAKR 202 0.727 4.183 1 501 0 0 0
0
438
‫‪QUEUE‬‬ ‫‪MAX CONT. ENTRY ENTRY(0) AVE.CONT. AVE.TIME‬‬ ‫)‪AVE.(-0‬‬
‫‪RETRY‬‬
‫‪LINE‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪501‬‬ ‫‪343‬‬ ‫‪0.352‬‬ ‫‪0.816‬‬ ‫‪2.589‬‬
‫‪0‬‬
‫‪TABLE‬‬ ‫‪MEAN‬‬ ‫‪STD.DEV.‬‬ ‫‪RANGE‬‬ ‫‪RETRY FREQUENCY‬‬

‫‪CUM.%‬‬
‫‪TTIME‬‬ ‫‪4.508‬‬ ‫‪1.951‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪1.000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪2.000‬‬ ‫‪58‬‬
‫‪11.60‬‬
‫‪2.000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪3.000‬‬ ‫‪112‬‬
‫‪34.00‬‬
‫‪3.000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪4.000‬‬ ‫‪114‬‬
‫‪56.80‬‬
‫‪4.000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪5.000‬‬ ‫‪101‬‬
‫‪77.00‬‬
‫‪5.000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪6.000‬‬ ‫‪53‬‬
‫‪87.60‬‬
‫‪6.000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪7.000‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬
‫‪91.60‬‬
‫‪7.000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪8.000‬‬ ‫‪17‬‬
‫‪95.00‬‬
‫‪8.000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪9.000‬‬ ‫‪14‬‬
‫‪97.80‬‬
‫‪9.000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫_‬ ‫‪11‬‬
‫‪100.00‬‬
‫‪QTIME‬‬ ‫‪0.816‬‬ ‫‪1.591‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫_‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪1.000‬‬ ‫‪403‬‬
‫‪80.44‬‬
‫‪1.000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪2.000‬‬ ‫‪33‬‬
‫‪87.03‬‬
‫‪2.000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪3.000‬‬ ‫‪25‬‬
‫‪92.02‬‬
‫‪3.000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪4.000‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬
‫‪96.01‬‬
‫‪4.000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪5.000‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬
‫‪97.60‬‬
‫‪5.000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪6.000‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪98.20‬‬
‫‪6.000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪7.000‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪99.20‬‬
‫‪7.000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪8.000‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪99.60‬‬
‫‪8.000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪9.000‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪99.80‬‬
‫‪9.000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫_‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪100.00‬‬
‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ ﻧﺠﺪ ﻣﻘﺎﯾﯿﺲ اﻷداء اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬

‫ﻋﺪد اﻟﻠﺬﯾﻦ ﺧﺪﻣﮭﻢ اﺣﻤﺪ = ‪ 299‬زﺑﻮن ﻣﻦ ‪ 500‬زﺑﻮن أي ‪59.8%‬‬
‫ﻋﺪد اﻟﻠﺬﯾﻦ ﺧﺪﻣﮭﻢ ﺑﻜﺮ = ‪ 202‬زﺑﻮن أي ‪40.4%‬‬
‫ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﺣﻤﺪ = ‪86%‬‬
‫ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﺑﻜﺮ = ‪72.7%‬‬
‫‪439‬‬
‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻻﺣﻤﺪ = ‪ 3.344‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﺒﻜﺮ = ‪ 4.183‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‬
‫أﻋﻈﻢ طﻮل ﻟﻠﻄﺎﺑﻮر = ‪ 4‬زﺑﺎﺋﻦ‬
‫ﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﺬﯾﻦ ﻟﻢ ﯾﻨﺘﻈﺮو = ‪ 343‬زﺑﻮن‬
‫إﺣﺘﻤﺎل ان اﻟﺰﺑﻮن ﯾﻨﺘﻈﺮ = ‪31.4% = (500/343) – 1‬‬
‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ طﻮل اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر = ‪ 0.352‬زﺑﻮن‬
‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻓﻲ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر = ‪ 0.816‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻓﻲ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ﻟﻤﻦ إﻧﺘﻈﺮ ﻓﻌﻼ = ‪ 2.589‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻜﻮث ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم = ‪ 4.508‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺟﺪول زﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻓﻲ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ﻧﺠﺪ ان ھﻨﺎك‬
‫‪ 403‬زﺑﻮن اﻧﺘﻈﺮو ﻓﻲ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 0‬و ‪ 1‬دﻗﺎﺋﻖ‬
‫و ‪ 33‬زﺑﻮن ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 1‬و ‪ 2‬دﻗﺎﺋﻖ‬
‫وھﻜﺬا‬
‫وﺑﻨﻔﺲ اﻟﻄﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﻔﺴﯿﺮ ﺟﺪول زﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻜﻮث ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪.‬‬
‫‪440‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪10‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻤﺜﺎل ﺳﻮف ﻧﻘﺪم اﻷﻣﺮﯾﻦ ‪ EQU‬و ‪ RMULT‬واﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ ‪ PREEMPT‬و ‪ RETURN‬و‬
‫‪PRIORITY‬‬
‫‪The EQU Command:‬‬
‫‪NAME‬‬ ‫‪EQU‬‬ ‫‪X‬‬
‫ھﺬا اﻷﻣﺮ ﯾﻘﺪر ﻋﺒﺎرة )ﺟﺒﺮﯾﺔ( وﯾﺴﻨﺪھﺎ إﻟﻰ إﺳﻢ ﺣﯿﺚ ‪ NAME‬ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻣﺴﻤﺎة ﻟﻜﻲ ﺗﺄﺧﺬ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻘﺪرة ﺑﺎﻟﻌﺒﺎرة اﻟﺠﺒﺮﯾﺔ وھﻮ ﺿﺮوري وﯾﺤﺐ أن ﯾﻜﻮن إﺳﻢ ‪ X‬ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺟﺒﺮي وھﻮ ﺿﺮوري‬
‫وﯾﺠﺐ أن ﯾﻜﻮن ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺟﺒﺮي‬
‫‪Price EQU 10‬‬
‫وھﺬا ﯾﻌﺮف اﻹﺳﻢ ‪ Price‬وﯾﻌﻄﯿﮫ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ ‪ 10‬وھﻜﺬا أﯾﻦ ﻣﺎﯾﻮﺟﺪ اﻹﺳﻢ ‪ Price‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﻓﺈن‬
‫‪ GPSS‬ﺳﯿﻌﻄﯿﮫ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ ‪10‬‬
‫‪The RMULT Command:‬‬
‫‪RMULT‬‬ ‫‪A,B,C,D,E,F,G‬‬
‫ھﺬا اﻷﻣﺮ ﯾﻌﻄﻲ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻟﻨﻮاة ﻣﻮﻟﺪات اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﺒﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ ‪GPSS‬‬
‫ﻧﻮاة ﻣﻮﻟﺪ اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ اﻷول ‪ RN1‬وھﻮ إﺧﺘﯿﺎري وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﯾﻜﻮن ﻻﺷﯿﺊ أو‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫ﻋﺪد ﺻﺤﯿﺢ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ‬

‫ﻧﻮاة ﻣﻮﻟﺪ اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ‪ RN2‬وھﻮ إﺧﺘﯿﺎري وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﯾﻜﻮن ﻻﺷﯿﺊ أو‬ ‫‪B‬‬

‫ﻧﻮاة ﻣﻮﻟﺪ اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ RN3‬وھﻮ إﺧﺘﯿﺎري وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﯾﻜﻮن ﻻﺷﯿﺊ أو‬ ‫‪C‬‬
‫‪441‬‬
‫ﻧﻮاة ﻣﻮﻟﺪ اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ ‪ RN4‬وھﻮ إﺧﺘﯿﺎري وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﯾﻜﻮن ﻻﺷﯿﺊ أو‬ ‫‪D‬‬

‫ﻧﻮاة ﻣﻮﻟﺪ اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ ‪ RN5‬وھﻮ إﺧﺘﯿﺎري وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﯾﻜﻮن ﻻﺷﯿﺊ أو‬ ‫‪E‬‬

‫ﻧﻮاة ﻣﻮﻟﺪ اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﺎدس ‪ RN6‬وھﻮ إﺧﺘﯿﺎري وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﯾﻜﻮن ﻻﺷﯿﺊ أو‬ ‫‪F‬‬

‫ﻧﻮاة ﻣﻮﻟﺪ اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻊ ‪ RN7‬وھﻮ إﺧﺘﯿﺎري وﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﯾﻜﻮن ﻻﺷﯿﺊ أو‬ ‫‪G‬‬

‫‪The PREEMPT Block:‬‬
‫‪PREEMPT‬‬ ‫‪A,B,C,D,E‬‬
‫ﯾﺠﺒﺮ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﺬي ﯾﺸﻐﻞ ﺗﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ ﺑﺈﺧﻼﺋﮭﺎ ﻣﺆﻗﺘﺎ ﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ آﺧﺮ أﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻨﮫ أﻓﻀﻠﯿﺔ‬
‫رﻗﻢ أو إﺳﻢ اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ وھﻮ ﺿﺮوري وﯾﺠﺐ ان ﯾﻜﻮن إﺳﻢ أو ﻋﺪد ﺻﺤﯿﺢ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫طﻮر اﻷﻓﻀﻠﯿﺔ وﯾﺮﻣﺰ ﻟﮭﺎ ‪ PR‬أو طﻮر اﻟﻤﻘﺎطﻌﺔ إذا اﻏﻔﻠﺖ اﻷﻓﻀﻠﯿﺔ وھﻮ إﺧﺘﯿﺎري‬ ‫‪B‬‬
‫وﯾﺠﺐ ان ﯾﻜﻮن ‪ PR‬أو ﻻﺷﯿﺊ ‪Null‬‬
‫إﺳﻢ او رﻗﻢ اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ اﻟﺬي ﯾﻨﺘﻘﻞ إﻟﯿﮫ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻤﺰاح ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ وھﻮ إﺧﺘﯿﺎري وﯾﺠﺐ‬ ‫‪C‬‬
‫أن ﯾﻜﻮن ﻻﺷﯿﺊ او إﺳﻢ او ﻋﺪد ﺻﺤﯿﺢ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ او ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ أﻗﻮاس او ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ‬
‫رﻗﻢ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ وھﻮ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ اﻟﺬي ﯾﻮﺿﻊ ﻓﯿﮫ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ اﻟﻀﺎﺋﻊ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻤﺰاح‬ ‫‪D‬‬
‫طﻮر اﻹﺑﻌﺎد ‪ RE‬وﯾﺒﻌﺪ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻋﻦ ھﺬه اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ ﻟﻸﺑﺪ وذﻟﻚ ﺑﺈرﺳﺎﻟﮭﺎ ﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ ﺑﺪﯾﻠﺔ‬ ‫‪E‬‬
‫ﯾﺠﺐ ان ﯾﻌﻄﻰ رﻣﺰھﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ ‪ C‬وﻋﻨﺪھﺎ ﯾﻜﻮن اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ ‪ C‬ﺿﺮوري‬

‫‪The RETURN Block:‬‬
‫‪RETURN‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫‪442‬‬
‫وﯾﻌﯿﺪ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻤﺰاح ﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ ‪ PREEMPT‬ﻓﻲ طﻮر ‪ PR‬إﻟﻰ اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﻛﺎن ﯾﺸﻐﻠﮭﺎ ﻣﺮة‬
‫اﺧﺮى ﺑﻌﺪ إﻧﺘﮭﺎء ﺧﺪﻣﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﺬي ﻟﮫ اﻓﻀﻠﯿﺔ أﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ‬
‫رﻗﻢ أو إﺳﻢ اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ وھﻮ ﺿﺮوري وﯾﺠﺐ أن ﯾﻜﻮن إﺳﻢ او ﻋﺪد ﺻﺤﯿﺢ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ او‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ أﻗﻮاس او ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ‬
‫‪The PRIORITY Block:‬‬
‫‪PRIORITY‬‬ ‫‪A,B‬‬
‫ﯾﺤﺪد او ﯾﻌﻄﻲ أﻓﻀﻠﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻨﺸﻂ‪.‬‬

‫اﻟﻌﻤﺎل‪:‬‬
‫ﻗﯿﻤﺔ اﻷﻓﻀﻠﯿﺔ اﻟﺠﺪﯾﺪة وھﻲ ﺿﺮورﯾﺔ وﯾﺠﺐ ان ﯾﻜﻮن إﻣﺎ إﺳﻢ أو ﻋﺪد ﺻﺤﯿﺢ أو ﻧﺺ‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫أو ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ أﻗﻮاس أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ‬
‫ﺧﯿﺎر اﻟﺬاﻛﺮة اﻟﻤﺆﻗﺘﺔ وﯾﻀﻊ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻨﺸﻂ ﺧﻠﻒ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ اﻟﻠﺬﯾﻦ ﻟﮭﻢ ﻧﻔﺲ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى‬ ‫‪B‬‬
‫اﻷﻓﻀﻠﯿﺔ وھﻮ إﺧﺘﯿﺎري وﯾﺠﺐ ان ﯾﻜﻮن ‪ BU‬او ﻻﺷﯿﺊ‬

‫‪PRIORITY‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬
‫ھﺬا اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ﯾﻌﻄﻲ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى أﻓﻀﻠﯿﺔ ‪ 10‬ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﯾﺪﺧﻞ إﻟﯿﮫ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ورﺷﺔ ﺗﺻﻠﯾﺢ ﺗﻠﻔزﯾون‬

‫ﺗﺳﺗﺧدم ورﺷﺔ إﺻﻼح اﺟﮭزة ﺗﻠﻔزﯾون ﻋﺎﻣل إﺻﻼح واﺣد ﻟﻠﺻﯾﺎﻧﺔ‬
‫اﻟدورﯾﺔ ‪ Overhaul‬ﻷﺟﮭزة اﻟورﺷﺔ اﻟﻣؤﺟرة وﻟﺻﯾﺎﻧﺔ اﺟﮭزة اﻟزﺑﺎﺋن‬
‫وﻟﻠﻘﯾﺎم ﺑﺈﺻﻼﺣﺎت ﺳرﯾﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺣﯾﻧﮭﺎ‪ .‬اﻟﺻﯾﺎﻧﺔ اﻟدورﯾﺔ ﻷﺟﮭزة اﻟورﺷﺔ ﺗﺑدأ‬
‫ﻛل ‪ 40±8‬ﺳﺎﻋﺔ وﺗﺳﺗﻐرق ‪ 10±1‬ﺳﺎﻋﺔ ﻹﻛﻣﺎﻟﮭﺎ‪ .‬اﻹﺻﻼﺣﺎت‬
‫اﻟﺳرﯾﻌﺔ ﻣﺛل ﺗﻐﯾﯾر ﻓﯾوز او ﺗﻌدﯾل ﻗﻧوات ﺗﺟري ﻓورﯾﺎ وﺗﺻل ﻛل ‪90±10‬‬
‫دﻗﯾﻘﺔ وﺗﺳﺗﻐرق ‪ 15±5‬دﻗﯾﻘﺔ‪ .‬أﺟﮭزة اﻟزﺑﺎﺋن اﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﺣﺗﺎج إﺻﻼح‬
‫وﺻﯾﺎﻧﺔ ﻋﺎدﯾﺔ ﺗﺻل ﻛل ‪ 5±1‬ﺳﺎﻋﺔ وﺗﺳﺗﻐرق ‪ 120±30‬دﻗﯾﻘﺔ‬
‫‪443‬‬
‫ أﺟﮭزة اﻟزﺑﺎﺋن ﻟﮭﺎ اﻷﻓﺿﻠﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺗﺻﻠﯾﺢ ﻋن اﻟﺻﯾﺎﻧﺔ اﻟدورﯾﺔ‬.‫ﻹﻧﺗﮭﺎﺋﮭﺎ‬
.‫ﻷﺟﮭزة اﻟورﺷﺔ‬
.‫ ﯾوم‬50 ‫ﺣﺎﻛﻰ ﻋﻣل اﻟورﺷﺔ ﻟﻣدة‬ -1
.‫ﺣدد ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯾﺔ ﻋﺎﻣل اﻟﺗﺻﻠﯾﺢ واﻟﺗﺄﺧﯾر ﻓﻲ ﺧدﻣﺔ اﻟزﺑﺎﺋن‬ -2
:‫اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬
Rseed EQU 39941
RMULT Rseed
Overhaul QTABLE Overhaul,10,10,20
Spot QTABLE Spot,10,10,20
Service QTABLE Service,10,10,20
Alljobs QTABLE Alljobs,10,10,20
GENERATE 2400,480,,,1
QUEUE Overhaul
QUEUE Alljobs
SEIZE Maintenance
DEPART Overhaul
DEPART Alljobs
ADVANCE 600,60
RELEASE Maintenance
TERMINATE
GENERATE 90,10,,,3
QUEUE Spot
QUEUE Alljobs
PREEMPT Maintenance,PR
DEPART Spot
DEPART Alljobs
ADVANCE 15,5
RETURN Maintenance
TERMINATE
444
GENERATE 300,60,,,2
QUEUE Service
QUEUE Alljobs
PREEMPT Maintenance,PR
DEPART Service
DEPART Alljobs
ADVANCE 120,30
RETURN Maintenance
TERMINATE
GENERATE 480
TERMINATE 1
:‫اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‬
445
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺟﺪول طﺎﺑﻮر ﺟﻤﯿﻊ اﻟﻮظﺎﺋﻒ‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة طﺎﺑﻮر طﺎﺑﻮر اﻟﺼﯿﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﺪورﯾﺔ‬
‫‪446‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة طﺎﺑﻮر ﺗﺼﻠﯿﺢ أﺟﮭﺰة اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة طﺎﺑﻮر اﻟﺘﺼﻠﯿﺤﺎت اﻟﺴﺮﯾﻌﺔ‬
DELAY
MAINTENANCE 353 0.796 54.138 1 401 0 0 0
0

RETRY
OVERHAUL 1 0 9 0 0.032 86.413 86.413
0
447
SPOT 1 0 265 265 0.000 0.000 0.000
0
SERVICE 2 0 79 67 0.033 10.019 65.960
0
ALLJOBS 2 0 353 332 0.065 4.445 74.726
0

CUM.%
OVERHAUL 86.413 60.070 0
_ - 10.000 1
11.11
10.000 - 20.000 2
33.33
20.000 - 30.000 0
33.33
30.000 - 40.000 0
33.33
40.000 - 50.000 0
33.33
50.000 - 60.000 0
33.33
60.000 - 70.000 0
33.33
70.000 - 80.000 0
33.33
80.000 - 90.000 0
33.33
90.000 - 100.000 0
33.33
100.000 - 110.000 2
55.56
110.000 - 120.000 2
77.78
120.000 - 130.000 0
77.78
130.000 - 140.000 1
88.89
140.000 - 150.000 0
88.89
150.000 - 160.000 0
88.89
160.000 - 170.000 1
100.00
SPOT 0.000 0.000 0
_ - 10.000 265
100.00
SERVICE 10.019 59.251 0
_ - 10.000 73
92.41
10.000 - 20.000 3
96.20
20.000 - 30.000 0
96.20
30.000 - 40.000 0
96.20
40.000 - 50.000 0
96.20
50.000 - 60.000 1
97.47
60.000 - 70.000 0
97.47
70.000 - 80.000 0
97.47
80.000 - 90.000 0
97.47
448
90.000 - 100.000 0
97.47
100.000 - 110.000 0
97.47
110.000 - 120.000 0
97.47
120.000 - 130.000 0
97.47
130.000 - 140.000 0
97.47
140.000 - 150.000 0
97.47
150.000 - 160.000 1
98.73
160.000 - 170.000 0
98.73
170.000 - 180.000 0
98.73
180.000 - 190.000 0
98.73
190.000 - _ 1
100.00
ALLJOBS 4.445 32.459 0
_ - 10.000 339
96.03
10.000 - 20.000 5
97.45
20.000 - 30.000 0
97.45
30.000 - 40.000 0
97.45
40.000 - 50.000 0
97.45
50.000 - 60.000 1
97.73
60.000 - 70.000 0
97.73
70.000 - 80.000 0
97.73
80.000 - 90.000 0
97.73
90.000 - 100.000 0
97.73
100.000 - 110.000 2
98.30
110.000 - 120.000 2
98.87
120.000 - 130.000 0
98.87
130.000 - 140.000 1
99.15
140.000 - 150.000 0
99.15
150.000 - 160.000 1
99.43
160.000 - 170.000 1
99.72
170.000 - 180.000 0
99.72
180.000 - 190.000 0
99.72
190.000 - _ 1
100.00
449
‫ﺗﻤﺮﯾﻦ‪ :‬ﯾﺘﺮك ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻟﺐ إﺳﺘﺨﺮاج وﺗﻔﺴﯿﺮ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‪.‬‬
‫‪450‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪:11‬‬
‫اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ ‪ Facility‬ھﻲ أي ﻣﻮرد ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﺗﺸﻐﻞ أو ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﺑﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ واﺣﺪ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻓﻲ أي وﻗﺖ‬
‫وﯾﺮﻓﺾ أي ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ آﺧﺮ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﻜﻮن ﻣﺸﻐﻮﻻ ‪ .‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﻛﺮﺳﻲ اﻟﺤﻼﻗﺔ ﻓﻲ دﻛﺎن ﺣﻼق واﺣﺪ‪.‬‬
‫واﻟﻤﺨﺰن ‪ Storage‬ھﻮ أي ﻣﻮرد ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﯾﺴﺘﻮﻋﺐ أﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻓﻲ وﻗﺖ واﺣﺪ وﻟﮫ ﺳﻌﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻌﯿﻨﺔ وﯾﺮﻓﺾ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ ﻋﻨﻤﺎ ﺗﺸﻐﻞ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﺳﻌﺘﮫ‪ .‬ﻣﺜﻞ ﻣﻘﺎﻋﺪ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻓﻲ دﻛﺎن ﻟﻠﺤﻼﻗﺔ‪.‬‬
‫)ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ‪ :‬ﻧﺴﺘﻄﯿﻊ ان ﻧﻨﻈﺮ ﻟﻠﻤﺨﺰن ﻋﻠﻰ اﻧﮫ ﻋﺪد ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻼت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﻣﻌﺎ(‪.‬‬
‫ﺳﺒﻖ أن ﻗﺪﻣﻨﺎ ﻛﯿﻔﯿﺔ إﺷﻐﺎل وإﺧﻼء اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ ﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ ‪ SEIZE‬و ‪ RELEASE‬ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺨﺰن ﻧﺤﺘﺎج إﻟﻰ أﻣﺮ ﻟﺘﻌﺮﯾﻒ ﺳﻌﺘﮫ وﻗﺎﻟﺒﯿﻦ ﻟﺪﺧﻮل واﻟﺨﺮوج ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺰن‪.‬‬
‫اﻷﻣﺮ ‪ STORAGE‬ﯾﻌﺮف او ﯾﺤﺪد ﺳﻌﺔ ﻣﺨﺰن وﻟﮫ اﻟﺘﺮﻛﯿﺐ‬
‫‪The STORAGE Command:‬‬
‫‪NAME‬‬ ‫‪STORAGE‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫ﺣﯿﺚ ‪ NAME‬ﻹﻋﻄﺎء إﺳﻢ ﻟﻠﻤﺨﺰن وھﻲ ﺿﺮورﯾﺔ وﯾﺠﺐ ان ﯾﻜﻮن إﺳﻢ‬

‫اﻟﺴﻌﺔ اﻟﻜﻠﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺨﺰن وھﻲ ﺿﺮورﯾﺔ وﯾﺠﺐ ان ﯾﻜﻮن ﻋﺪد ﺻﺤﯿﺢ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺒﯿﻦ ‪ ENTER‬و ‪ LEAVE‬ﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺎن ﻣﺘﺰاوﺟﯿﻦ ﻟﺸﻐﺮ أو إﺧﻼء وﺣﺪة ﻣﻦ وﺣﺪات اﻟﻤﺨﺰن‬

‫وﻟﮭﻢ اﻟﺘﺮﻛﯿﺒﺎت‬
‫‪The ENTER Block:‬‬
‫‪ENTER‬‬ ‫‪A,B‬‬
‫ﯾﺘﺴﺒﺐ ﻓﻲ أﺧﺬ أو إﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻋﺪد ﻣﺤﺪد ﻣﻦ وﺣﺪات اﻟﻤﺨﺰن‪.‬‬

‫رﻗﻢ أو إﺳﻢ اﻟﻤﺨﺰن وھﻮ ﺿﺮوري وﯾﺠﺐ أن ﯾﻜﻮن إﻣﺎ إﺳﻢ إو رﻗﻢ ﺻﺤﯿﺢ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫أو ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻗﻮﺳﯿﻦ أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ‪.‬‬
‫‪451‬‬
‫ﻋﺪد وﺣﺪات اﻟﻤﺨﺰن اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب إﺷﻐﺎرھﺎ واﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺘﻢ إﻧﻘﺎﺻﮭﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺳﻌﺔ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون‬ ‫‪B‬‬
‫وﻗﯿﻤﺘﮭﺎ اﻹﻓﺘﺮاﺿﯿﺔ ‪ 1‬وھﻲ إﺧﺘﯿﺎرﯾﺔ وﻗﺪ ﺗﻜﻮن ﻻﺷﯿﺊ أو إﺳﻢ أو ﻋﺪد ﺻﺤﯿﺢ‬
‫ﻣﻮﺟﺐ او ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻗﻮﺳﯿﻦ او ﺻﻔﮫ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم او ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ‪.‬‬
‫‪The LEAVE Block:‬‬
‫‪LEAVE‬‬ ‫‪A,B‬‬
‫ﯾﺘﺴﺒﺐ ﻓﻲ إﺧﻼء ﻋﺪد ﻣﻦ وﺣﺪات اﻟﻤﺨﺰن ورﻓﻊ ﺳﻌﺔ اﻟﻤﺨﺰن ﺑﻘﺪر ﻋﺪد اﻟﻮﺣﺪات اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻢ‬
‫إﺧﻼﺋﮭﺎ‪.‬‬
‫رﻗﻢ أو إﺳﻢ اﻟﻤﺨﺰن وھﻮ ﺿﺮوري وﯾﺠﺐ أن ﯾﻜﻮن إﻣﺎ إﺳﻢ إو رﻗﻢ ﺻﺤﯿﺢ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫ﻋﺪد وﺣﺪات اﻟﻤﺨﺰن اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب إﺷﻐﺎرھﺎ واﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺘﻢ إﻧﻘﺎﺻﮭﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺳﻌﺔ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون‬ ‫‪B‬‬
‫وﻗﯿﻤﺘﮭﺎ اﻹﻓﺘﺮاﺿﯿﺔ ‪ 1‬وھﻲ إﺧﺘﯿﺎرﯾﺔ وﻗﺪ ﺗﻜﻮن ﻻﺷﯿﺊ أو إﺳﻢ أو ﻋﺪد ﺻﺤﯿﺢ‬
‫ﻣﻮﺟﺐ او ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻗﻮﺳﯿﻦ او ﺻﻔﮫ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم او ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ‪.‬‬
‫‪Single Channel Queue with two‬‬ ‫طﺎﺑﻮر اﻟﺼﻒ اﻟﻮاﺣﺪ ﺑﺨﺎدﻣﯿﻦ‬
‫‪servers‬‬
‫ﻣﺤﻞ ﺑﻘﺎﻟﺔ ﺻﻐﯿﺮ ﻟﮫ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﻦ وطﺎﺑﻮر واﺣﺪ‪ .‬ﯾﺼﻞ اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ إﻟﻰ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ اﻟﺪﻓﻊ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﯾﻔﺼﻞ‬
‫ﺑﯿﻨﮭﻤﺎ أزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ وﺻﻮل ‪ Interarrival times‬ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 1‬و ‪ 8‬دﻗﺎﺋﻖ وھﺬه اﻷزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ وﺻﻮل ﻟﮭﺎ‬
‫ﻧﻔﺲ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.125‬‬ ‫‪0.125‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.125‬‬ ‫‪0.250‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.125‬‬ ‫‪0.375‬‬
‫‪452‬‬
4 0.125 0.500
5 0.125 0.625
6 0.125 0.750
7 0.125 0.875
8 0.125 1.000
‫ دﻗﺎﺋﻖ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺨﺎدﻣﯿﻦ ﺑﺈﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻت ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ‬6 ‫ و‬1 ‫ ﺗﺘﺮاوح ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ‬Sevice times ‫أزﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ‬
:‫اﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
:‫ﺟﺪول ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ أزﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ‬
Service Time Cumulative
(Minutes) Probability Probability
1 0.10 0.10
2 0.20 0.30
3 0.30 0.60
4 0.25 0.85
5 0.10 0.95
6 0.05 1.00
.‫ زﺑﻮﻧﺎ‬500 ‫اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﺑﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة وﺻﻮل وﺧﺪﻣﺔ‬

:‫ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬8 ‫ﻧﻄﻮر اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺜﺎل‬
TTime TABLE M1,1,1,10

QTime QTABLE Line,1,1,10
IAT FUNCTION RN1,D8
0.125,1/0.25,2/0.375,3/0.5,4/0.625,5/0.75,6/0.875,7/1.0,8
STime FUNCTION RN1,D6
0.1,1/0.3,2/0.6,3/0.85,4/0.95,5/1.0,6
Server STORAGE 2
GENERATE FN$IAT
QUEUE Line
ENTER Server
DEPART Line
453
‫‪ADVANCE‬‬ ‫‪FN$STime‬‬
‫‪LEAVE‬‬ ‫‪Server‬‬
‫ﻧﻘﺪم ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺟﺪﯾﺪة ھﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻤﺨﺎزن وﻧﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ ﻛﺎﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﻓﺘﻈﮭﺮ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻤﺨﺎزن‬
‫ﻧﺪﺧﻞ اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ وﻧﺠﺮﯾﮫ ‪ 500‬ﻣﺮة‬
‫‪454‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻤﺨﺎزن‪:‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺟﺪاول اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر‪:‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺟﺪول زﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻜﻮث ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪:‬‬
‫‪455‬‬
:‫واﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ‬
RETRY
LINE 2 0 500 487 0.007 0.034 1.308
0
STORAGE CAP. REM. MIN. MAX. ENTRIES AVL. AVE.C. UTIL. RETRY
DELAY
SERVER 2 2 0 2 500 1 0.689 0.345 0 0

CUM.%
TTIME 3.176 1.336 0
_ - 1.000 57
11.40
1.000 - 2.000 106
32.60
2.000 - 3.000 133
59.20
3.000 - 4.000 127
84.60
4.000 - 5.000 51
94.80
5.000 - 6.000 25
99.80
6.000 - 7.000 1
100.00
QTIME 0.034 0.221 0
_ - 1.000 496
99.20
1.000 - 2.000 4
100.00
.8 ‫ ﻗﺎرن ﺑﯿﻦ ھﺬه اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ وﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻣﺜﺎل‬:‫ﺗﻤﺮﯾﻦ‬
456
‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪12‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻤﺜﺎل ﺳﻮف ﻧﻘﺪم ﺑﻌﺾ اﻷواﻣﺮ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻌﺮف ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮات ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪.‬‬
‫‪The BVARIABLE Command:‬‬
‫‪NAME‬‬ ‫‪BVARIABLE‬‬ ‫‪X‬‬
‫ﯾﻌﺮف ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻲ ‪.Boolean‬‬

‫ﺣﯿﺚ ‪ NAME‬ﺗﻌﺮف رﻣﺰ او إﺳﻢ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ وھﻮ ﺿﺮوري وﯾﺠﺐ ان ﯾﻜﻮن إﺳﻢ‪.‬‬
‫‪ X‬ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺟﺒﺮي وھﻮ ﺿﺮوري وﯾﺠﺐ أن ﯾﻜﻮن ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل‬
‫‪AC‬‬ ‫)‪BVARIABLE (BV$A’AND’BV$C‬‬
‫ھﺬا اﻷﻣﺮ ﯾﻔﺤﺺ اﻟﻨﺘﯿﺠﺔ اﻟﻤﻨﻄﻘﯿﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻷﻗﻮاس وﯾﻌﯿﺪ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ‬
‫”‪BV$A1C = 1 “TRUE” IF BV$A = “TRUE” AND BV$C = “TRUE‬‬
‫‪= 0 “FALSE” OTHERWISE‬‬
‫‪The FVARIABLE Command:‬‬
‫‪NAME‬‬ ‫‪FVARIABLE‬‬ ‫‪X‬‬
‫وﯾﻌﺮف ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﺟﺒﺮي ﺣﻘﯿﻘﻲ ‪.Floating Point‬‬

‫ﻣﺜﺎل‬
‫‪VarX‬‬ ‫)‪FVARIABLE 5*LOG(Q$Line‬‬
‫ھﺬا اﻷﻣﺮ ﯾﻌﻄﻲ‬
‫)‪FV$VarX = 5*LOG(Q$Line‬‬
‫ﺣﯿﺚ ‪ Q$Line‬ﻣﺤﺘﻮى اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ‪.Line‬‬
‫‪The VARIABLE Command:‬‬
‫‪457‬‬
‫‪NAME‬‬ ‫‪VARIABLE‬‬ ‫‪X‬‬
‫وﯾﻌﺮف ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﺟﺒﺮي ﻋﺪدي‪.‬‬

‫ﻣﺜﺎل‬
‫‪VarX‬‬ ‫)‪VARIABLE 5*LOG(Q$Line‬‬
‫ھﺬا اﻷﻣﺮ ﯾﻌﻄﻲ‬
‫)‪V$VarX = 5*LOG(Q$Line‬‬
‫ﺣﯿﺚ ‪ Q$Line‬ﻣﺤﺘﻮى اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ‪.Line‬‬
‫‪458‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪13‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻤﺜﺎل ﻧﻘﺪم اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ ‪ ASSIGN‬و ‪ SAVEVALUE‬و ‪ TEST‬اﻟﻠﺬﯾﻦ ﻟﮭﻢ اﻟﺘﺮاﻛﯿﺐ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪The ASSIGN Block:‬‬
‫‪ASSIGN‬‬ ‫‪A,B,C‬‬
‫وﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻹﻋﻄﺎء أو ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻞ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻣﻌﻠﻢ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻨﺸﻂ )أي اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﺬي ﯾﺪﺧﻞ اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ(‪.‬‬
‫رﻗﻢ ﻣﻌﻠﻢ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻨﺸﻂ وھﻮ ﺿﺮوري وﯾﺠﺐ أن ﯾﻜﻮن إﺳﻤﺎ أو ﻋﺪد ﺻﺤﯿﺢ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫أو ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻗﻮﺳﯿﻦ أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ وﺗﺘﺒﻊ ﺑـ ‪ +‬أو – أو‬
‫ﻻﺷﯿﺊ‪.‬‬
‫ﻗﯿﻤﺔ وھﻲ ﺿﺮورﯾﺔ وﯾﺠﺐ أن ﯾﻜﻮن إﺳﻤﺎ أو ﻋﺪد أو ﻧﺺ أو ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻗﻮﺳﯿﻦ أو ﺻﻔﺔ‬ ‫‪B‬‬
‫ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ‪.‬‬

‫رﻗﻢ داﻟﺔ وھﻮ إﺧﺘﯿﺎري وﯾﺠﺐ أن ﯾﻜﻮن ﻻﺷﯿﺊ أو إﺳﻤﺎ أو ﻋﺪد ﺻﺤﯿﺢ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ أو ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ‬ ‫‪C‬‬
‫ﺑﯿﻦ ﻗﻮﺳﯿﻦ أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ‪.‬‬
‫‪The SAVEVALUE Block:‬‬
‫‪SAVEVALUE‬‬ ‫‪A,B‬‬
‫ﯾﻌﺮف وﯾﻐﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ "ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻣﺤﻔﻮظﺔ" وھﺬا اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻹﺟﺮاء ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺎت ﺟﺒﺮﯾﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻌﺎﻟﻢ‬
‫وﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪.‬‬
‫إﺳﻢ أو رﻗﻢ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﻔﻮظﺔ وھﻮ ﺿﺮوري وﻗﺪ ﺗﺘﺒﻊ ﺑـ ‪ +‬أو ‪ -‬ﻟﺠﻤﻊ او طﺮح ﻗﯿﻢ‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫اﺧﺮى ﻟﻠﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺤﺎﻟﯿﺔ وﯾﺠﺐ أن ﯾﻜﻮن إﺳﻤﺎ أو ﻋﺪد ﺻﺤﯿﺢ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ أو ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻗﻮﺳﯿﻦ‬
‫أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﺗﺨﺰﯾﻨﮭﺎ أو إﺿﺎﻓﺘﮭﺎ أو طﺮﺣﮭﺎ وھﻲ ﺿﺮورﯾﺔ وﯾﺠﺐ أن ﯾﻜﻮن إﺳﻤﺎ‬ ‫‪B‬‬
‫أو ﻋﺪد أو ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻗﻮﺳﯿﻦ أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ‪.‬‬
‫‪459‬‬
‫‪The TEST Block:‬‬
‫‪TEST O‬‬ ‫‪A,B,C‬‬
‫ﯾﻘﻮم ھﺬا اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ﺑﻤﻘﺎرﻧﺔ ﻗﯿﻤﺘﯿﻦ‪ ،‬ﻏﺎﻟﺒﺎ ﻣﺎﺗﻜﻮن ﺻﻔﺎت ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم‪ ،‬وﯾﺴﯿﻄﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻘﺼﺪ أو‬
‫اﻟﺠﮭﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﻨﺘﻘﻞ إﻟﯿﮭﺎ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻨﺸﻂ ﻧﺘﯿﺠﺔ ﻟﮭﺬه اﻟﻤﻘﺎرﻧﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻲ أو ﻋﻼﻗﺔ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ‪ A‬ﺑﺎﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ‪ B‬ﻟﻜﻲ ﯾﻜﻮن اﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﺻﺤﯿﺢ وھﻮ‬ ‫‪O‬‬
‫ﺿﺮوري وﯾﺠﺐ أن ﯾﻜﻮن ‪) E‬ﯾﺴﺎوي( أو ‪) G‬اﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ( أو ‪) L‬اﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ( أو ‪) GE‬اﻛﺒﺮ‬

‫ﻣﻦ أو ﯾﺴﺎوي( أو ‪) LE‬اﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ أو ﯾﺴﺎوي( أو ‪) NE‬ﻻﯾﺴﺎوي(‪.‬‬
‫ﻗﯿﻤﺔ اﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر )اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﺨﺘﺒﺮة( وھﻲ ﺿﺮورﯾﺔ وﯾﺠﺐ أن ﯾﻜﻮن إﺳﻢ أو ﻋﺪد أو ﻧﺺ‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫ﻗﯿﻤﺔ اﻹﺳﻨﺎد )اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻘﺎرن ﺑﮭﺎ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ اﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر( وھﻲ ﺿﺮورﯾﺔ وﯾﺠﺐ أن ﯾﻜﻮن‬ ‫‪B‬‬
‫إﺳﻢ أو ﻋﺪد أو ﻧﺺ أو ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻗﻮﺳﯿﻦ أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ‪.‬‬
‫رﻗﻢ أو إﺳﻢ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ اﻟﻤﻘﺼﺪ وھﻮ إﺧﺘﯿﺎري وﯾﺠﺐ أن ﯾﻜﻮن إﺳﻢ أو ﻋﺪد ﺻﺤﯿﺢ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ أو‬ ‫‪C‬‬
‫ﻻﺷﯿﺊ أو ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻗﻮﺳﯿﻦ أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ‪.‬‬
‫وﺳﻮف ﻧﺴﺘﻌﺮض إﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﮭﻢ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺜﺎل اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺑﺎﺋﻊ اﻟﺼﺤﻒ‪:‬‬

‫ھﺬه ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺗﻘﻠﯿﺪﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻈﺎم اﻟﻤﺨﺰون وﺗﺘﻌﻠﻖ ﺑﺸﺮاء وﺑﯿﻊ ﺻﺤﻒ‪ .‬ﺑﺎﺋﻊ اﻟﺼﺤﻒ ﯾﺸﺘﺮي اﻟﺼﺤﯿﻔﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻮاﺣﺪة ﺑـ ‪ 150‬ھﻠﻠﺔ وﯾﺒﯿﻌﮭﺎ ﺑـ ‪ 200‬ھﻠﻠﺔ‪ ،‬اﻟﺼﺤﻒ اﻟﻤﺘﺒﻘﯿﺔ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﯿﻮم ﺗﺒﺎع ﻟﻤﺼﻨﻊ ﻗﺮاطﯿﺲ‬
‫ﺑﺴﻌﺮ ‪ 10‬ھﻠﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﺼﺤﯿﻔﺔ اﻟﻮاﺣﺪة‪ .‬ﯾﺸﺘﺮي اﻟﺒﺎﺋﻊ اﻟﺼﺤﻒ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻮزع ﻓﻲ ﺣﺰم ﺗﺘﻜﻮن ﻣﻦ ‪10‬‬
‫ﺻﺤﻒ )أي ﯾﻤﻜﻨﮫ ﺷﺮاء ‪ 10‬او ‪ 20‬او ‪ 30‬وھﻜﺬا‪ ...‬ﺻﺤﯿﻔﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺮة(‪ .‬اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺼﺤﻒ‬
‫ﯾﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻮع اﻷﺧﺒﺎر ﻓﻲ ذﻟﻚ اﻟﯿﻮم ﻓﮭﻨﺎك ﯾﻮم أﺧﺒﺎر ﺟﯿﺪ وﯾﻮم أﺧﺒﺎر ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ وﯾﻮم أﺧﺒﺎر‬
‫ﺿﻌﯿﻒ ﺑﺈﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻت ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﻮاﻟﻲ ‪ 0.35‬و ‪ 0.45‬و ‪ 0.20‬ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺼﺤﻒ ﻟﻜﻞ ﯾﻮم‬
‫ﺣﺴﺐ ﻧﻮع أﻷﺧﺒﺎر ھﻮ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪460‬‬
‫__________________________‬
‫‪40‬‬ ‫‪0.03‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬ ‫‪0.44‬‬
‫‪50‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪0.18‬‬ ‫‪0.22‬‬
‫‪60‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪0.40‬‬ ‫‪0.16‬‬
‫‪70‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬ ‫‪0.12‬‬
‫‪80‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.08‬‬ ‫‪0.06‬‬
‫‪90‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪0.04‬‬ ‫‪0.00‬‬
‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪0.07‬‬ ‫‪0.00‬‬ ‫‪0.00‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ اﻟﻌﺪد اﻷﻣﺜﻞ ﻟﻌﺪد اﻟﺼﺤﻒ اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺸﺘﺮﯾﮭﺎ ﺑﺎﺋﻊ اﻟﺼﺤﻒ‪.‬‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﺤﺎﻛﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻟﻤﺪة ‪ 100‬ﯾﻮﻣﺎ وﻧﺤﺪد اﻟﺮﺑﺢ اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ واﻟﺬي ﯾﺤﺴﺐ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ Revenue   Cost of  Lost profit from  Salvage from sale ‬‬
‫‪Profit = ‬‬ ‫‪−‬‬ ‫‪−‬‬ ‫‪+‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪From Sales  newspapers   excess demand   of scrap papers ‬‬
‫أي‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﺮﺑﺢ = ﺻﺎﻓﻲ اﻟﺒﯿﻊ – ﺳﻌﺮاﻟﺼﺤﻒ – اﻟﺮﺑﺢ اﻟﻀﺎﺋﻊ ﻣﻦ زﯾﺎدة اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ‪ +‬اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻨﻘﺬ ﻛﻤﺒﺎع‬
‫ﻟﻠﻘﺮاطﯿﺲ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺷﺮح اﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻧﺠﺪ ان‪:‬‬
‫ﺻﺎﻓﻲ اﻟﺒﯿﻊ = ‪ * 200‬ﻋﺪد اﻟﺼﺤﻒ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﻋﺔ‬
‫ﺳﻌﺮ اﻟﺼﺤﻒ = ‪ * 150‬ﻋﺪد اﻟﺼﺤﻒ اﻟﻤﺸﺘﺮاة‬
‫اﻟﺮﺑﺢ اﻟﻀﺎﺋﻊ ﻣﻦ زﯾﺎدة اﻟﻄﻠﺐ = ‪) * 50‬ﻋﺪد اﻟﺼﺤﻒ اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ – ﻋﺪد اﻟﺼﺤﻒ اﻟﻤﺸﺘﺮاة( ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ان ﺗﻜﻮن ﻋﺪد اﻟﺼﺤﻒ اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ اﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺼﺤﻒ اﻟﻤﺸﺘﺮاة‬
‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻨﻘﺬ ﻛﻤﺒﺎع ﻟﻠﻘﺮاطﯿﺲ = ‪ ) * 10‬ﻋﺪد اﻟﺼﺤﻒ اﻟﻤﺸﺘﺮاة – ﻋﺪد اﻟﺼﺤﻒ اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ( ﻋﻠﻰ ان‬
‫ﺗﻜﻮن ﻋﺪد اﻟﺼﺤﻒ اﻟﻤﺸﺘﺮاة اﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺼﺤﻒ اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻟﺤﻞ ھﺬه اﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﯾﺠﺐ ﻋﻠﯿﻨﺎ ﺗﺒﻨﻲ ﺳﯿﺎﺳﺔ ﺷﺮاء ﻋﺪد ﻣﻌﯿﻦ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺼﺤﻒ ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ ﺛﻢ ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة‬
‫اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺼﺤﻒ ﻟﻤﺪة ‪ 100‬ﯾﻮﻣﺎ وﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ اﻟﺮﺑﺢ اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ‪ ،‬اﻟﺴﯿﺎﺳﺔ )وھﻲ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺼﺤﻒ‬
‫‪461‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺸﺘﺮاة( ھﺬه ﺗﻐﯿﺮ ﺣﺘﻰ ﻧﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺼﺤﻒ اﻟﻤﺸﺘﺮاة اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﻜﻮن اﻟﺮﺑﺢ ﻋﻨﺪھﺎ اﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﺎ‬
‫ﯾﻤﻜﻦ‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﺠﺪاول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ ﻧﻮع ﯾﻮم اﻷﺧﺒﺎر‪:‬‬

‫‪Cumulative‬‬
‫‪Type of Newsday‬‬ ‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪Probability‬‬
‫‪Good‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬
‫‪Fair‬‬ ‫‪0.45‬‬ ‫‪0.80‬‬
‫‪Poor‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬
‫واﻟﺬي ﻧﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ‪ GPSS‬ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬

‫‪NDay FUNCTION RN1,D3‬‬
‫‪0.35,GOOD/0.8,FAIR/1.0,POOR‬‬
‫واﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺼﺤﻒ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻧﻮع ﯾﻮم اﻷﺧﺒﺎر‪:‬‬
‫‪Cumulative Probability‬‬
‫_____________________‬
‫‪40‬‬ ‫‪0.03‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬ ‫‪0.44‬‬
‫‪50‬‬ ‫‪0.08‬‬ ‫‪0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.66‬‬
‫‪60‬‬ ‫‪0.23‬‬ ‫‪0.68‬‬ ‫‪0.82‬‬
‫‪70‬‬ ‫‪0.43‬‬ ‫‪0.88‬‬ ‫‪0.94‬‬
‫‪80‬‬ ‫‪0.78‬‬ ‫‪0.96‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬
‫‪90‬‬ ‫‪0.93‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬
‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬
‫واﻟﺬي ﻧﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ‪ GPSS‬ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫‪GOOD FUNCTION RN1,D7‬‬

‫‪0.03,40/0.08,50/0.23,60/0.43,70/0.78,80/0.93,90/1.0,100‬‬
‫‪FAIR FUNCTION RN1,D6‬‬
‫‪0.1,40/0.28,50/0.68,60/0.88,70/0.96,80/1.0,90‬‬
‫‪POOR FUNCTION RN1,D5‬‬
‫‪0.44,40/0.66,50/0.82,60/0.94,70/1.0,8‬‬
‫‪462‬‬
:‫واﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬
Npaper EQU 30
NewsDay FUNCTION RN1,D3

0.35,GOOD/0.8,FAIR/1.0,POOR
GOODF FUNCTION RN1,D7

0.03,40/0.08,50/0.23,60/0.43,70/0.78,80/0.93,90/1.0,100
FAIRF FUNCTION RN1,D6

0.1,40/0.28,50/0.68,60/0.88,70/0.96,80/1.0,90
POORF FUNCTION RN1,D5

0.44,40/0.66,50/0.82,60/0.94,70/1.0,8
GENERATE 1
TRANSFER FN,NewsDay
GOOD ASSIGN 1,FN$GOODF

TRANSFER ,Clcprft
FAIR ASSIGN 1,FN$FAIRF

TRANSFER ,Clcprft
POOR ASSIGN 1,FN$POORF
Clcprft SAVEVALUE PapersToBuy,(Npaper)

TEST GE (Npaper-P1),0,LostP
SAVEVALUE TotalProfit+,(2.0#P1-1.5#Npaper+0.1#(Npaper-P1))
TRANSFER ,FINS
LostP SAVEVALUE TotalProfit+,(2.0#Npaper-1.5#Npaper-0.5#(P1-

Npaper))
FINS SAVEVALUE AverageProfit,(X$TotalProfit/100)

TERMINATE 1
START 100
:‫ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺎت ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬

‫ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻄﻮر اﻟﺪاﻟﻲ ﻟﻜﻲ ﻧﻌﯿﻦ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻓﻲ‬TRANSFER ‫ اﺳﺘﺨﺪﻣﺖ ﻣﻊ اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ‬NewsDay ‫ اﻟﺪاﻟﺔ‬-1
.‫أي ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺣﺎﻻت ﯾﻮم اﻷﺧﺒﺎر‬
TRANSFER FN,NewsDay
‫( ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻨﺸﻂ )واﻟﺬي ﯾﻤﺜﻞ اﻟﯿﻮم( ﻗﯿﻤﺔ‬P1) 1 ‫ اﺳﺘﺨﺪم ﻹﻋﻄﺎء اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ‬ASSIGN ‫ اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ‬-2
.‫ﻟﻠﻄﻠﺐ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﯾﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﻮع اﻟﯿﻮم اﻷﺧﺒﺎري‬
463
‫‪ -3‬اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ ‪ SAVEVALUE‬اﻟﺜﻼﺛﺔ اﺳﺘﺨﺪم اﻷول ﻟﺤﻔﻆ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ واﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ )ﻗﺎﻟﺒﯿﻦ( ﻟﺤﺴﺎب‬
‫وﺣﻔﻆ اﻷرﺑﺎح اﻟﻜﻠﯿﺔ )ﺑﺎﻟﺮﯾﺎل( و اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ﻟﺤﺴﺎب وﺣﻔﻆ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﻟﺮﺑﺢ ﻟﻤﺌﺔ )‪ (100‬ﯾﻮم‪.‬‬
‫‪ -4‬اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪ TEST‬ﻗﺎم ﺑﺘﺤﺪﯾﺪ اﻟﺼﯿﻐﺔ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﻟﺤﺴﺎب اﻟﺮﺑﺢ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﺪﺧﻞ اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ وﻧﺘﺮﺟﻤﮫ‪ ،‬ﺳﻮف ﻧﻘﺪم ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﻤﺤﻔﻮظﺔ واﻟﺘﻲ ﻧﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ ﻛﻤﺎ ﺣﺼﻠﻨﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫اﻟﻨﻮاﻓﺬ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‬
‫ﻓﺘﻈﮭﺮ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة‬
‫‪464‬‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ اﻷﻣﺮ ‪ START 100‬وﺿﻊ ﺿﻤﻨﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ وذﻟﻚ ﻷﻧﻨﺎ ﺑﺮﻣﺠﻨﺎ ﻗﯿﻢ اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﻤﺤﻔﻮظﺔ ﻟﻜﻲ‬
‫ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﻟﺮﺑﺢ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺪى ‪ 100‬ﯾﻮم‪.‬‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ أﻧﻨﺎ أدﺧﻠﻨﺎ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺼﺤﻒ اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺸﺘﺮﯾﮭﺎ ﺑﺎﺋﻊ اﻟﺼﺤﻒ ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ‪ Npaper‬وﻧﻐﯿﺮ‬
‫ﻗﯿﻤﺘﮫ ﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻛﻞ اﻹﺧﺘﯿﺎرات ﻋﻦ طﺮﯾﻖ اﻷﻣﺮ ‪.EQU‬‬
‫ﻧﺒﺪأ ﺑﺸﺮاء ‪ 30‬ﺻﺤﯿﻔﺔ ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ ﻟﻤﺪة ‪ 100‬ﯾﻮم‬
‫‪ 40‬ﺻﺤﯿﻔﺔ‬
‫‪465‬‬
‫وﻧﻠﺨﺺ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻓﻲ ﺟﺪول‬

‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﻟﺮﺑﺢ ﻟـ ‪ 100‬ﯾﻮم )ﺑﺎﻟﺮﯾﺎل(‬ ‫ﻋﺪد اﻟﺼﺤﻒ اﻟﻤﺸﺘﺮاة ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ‬
‫‪-2.10‬‬ ‫‪30‬‬
‫‪466‬‬
‫‪7.90‬‬ ‫‪40‬‬
‫‪15.02‬‬ ‫‪50‬‬
‫‪18.78‬‬ ‫‪60‬‬
‫‪15.34‬‬ ‫‪70‬‬
‫‪7.34‬‬ ‫‪80‬‬
‫‪-4.50‬‬ ‫‪90‬‬
‫ﯾﻼﺣﻆ أﻧﮫ ﺑﺸﺮاء ‪ 60‬ﺻﺤﯿﻔﺔ ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ ﻓﺈﻧﮫ ﯾﺤﻘﻖ أﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ رﺑﺢ ﻋﻠﻰ أن ﺗﺒﻘﻰ ﺷﺮوط ﺑﻨﺎء‬
‫اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﺛﺎﺑﺘﺔ ﻻﺗﺘﻐﯿﺮ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪14‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻤﺜﺎل ﺳﻮف ﻧﻘﺪم اﻷﻣﺮ ‪ INITIAL‬واﻟﺬي ﯾﻌﻄﻲ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ أوﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات وﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﺤﻔﻆ وﻟﮭﺎ‬
‫اﻟﺘﺮﻛﯿﺐ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪The INITIAL Command:‬‬
‫‪INITIAL‬‬ ‫‪A,B‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺮاد إﺳﺘﮭﻼﻟﮫ وﯾﺒﺪأ ﺑﺎﻟﺤﺮف ‪ X‬وھﻮ ﺿﺮوري وﯾﺠﺐ أن ﯾﻜﻮن ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫‪ XPosInteger‬أو ‪.X$Name‬‬
‫اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﺴﻨﺪة وھﻲ إﺧﺘﯿﺎرﯾﺔ وﻗﯿﻤﺘﮭﺎ اﻹﻓﺘﺮاﺿﯿﺔ ‪ .1‬وﯾﻤﻜﻦ أن ﯾﻜﻮن ﻻﺷﯿﺊ أو ﻋﺪد أو‬ ‫‪B‬‬
‫ﻧﺺ أو إﺳﻢ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﺨﺰﯾﻦ‪:‬‬
‫‪Daily Demand‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪467‬‬
‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪0.33‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬ ‫‪0.12‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬
‫)‪Lead Time (Days‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬
‫ﻓﺤﺎﻛﻲ ‪ 52‬أﺳﺒﻮع ﻟﮭﺬا اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ‪ .‬ﺣﺪد ﻧﺴﺒﺔ اﻷﯾﺎم اﻟﺘﻲ ﺣﺪث ﻓﯿﮭﺎ ﻧﻘﺺ ﻓﻲ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ طﻠﺒﯿﺔ وﻧﺴﺒﺔ‬
‫ﻧﻜﻮن اﻟﺪوال اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫داﻟﺔ ﻣﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪DailyDemand‬‬ ‫‪FUNCTION RN1,D5‬‬

‫‪0.33,0/0.58,1/0.78,2/0.9,3/1.0,4‬‬
‫داﻟﺔ ﻣﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻘﺪم‪:‬‬

‫‪LeadTime‬‬ ‫‪FUNCTION RN1,D3‬‬
‫‪0.3,1/0.8,2/1.0,3‬‬
‫وﯾﻜﻮن اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ‪:‬‬
‫‪DailyDemand‬‬ ‫‪FUNCTION‬‬ ‫‪RN1,D5‬‬

‫‪0.33,0/0.58,1/0.78,2/0.9,3/1.0,4‬‬
‫‪LeadTime‬‬ ‫‪FUNCTION‬‬ ‫‪RN1,D3‬‬
‫‪0.3,1/0.8,2/1.0,3‬‬
‫‪INITIAL‬‬ ‫‪X$EOQ,10‬‬
‫‪INITIAL‬‬ ‫‪X$Point,6‬‬
‫‪INITIAL‬‬ ‫‪X$Stock,12‬‬
‫‪Inventory‬‬ ‫‪TABLE‬‬ ‫‪X$Stock,0,5,10‬‬
‫‪Sales‬‬ ‫‪TABLE‬‬ ‫‪P$Demand,1,2,10‬‬
‫‪468‬‬
GENERATE ,,,1
Again TEST L X$Stock,X$Point
ADVANCE FN$LeadTime
SAVEVALUE Stock+,X$EOQ
TRANSFER ,Again
GENERATE 1
ASSIGN Demand,FN$DailyDemand
TABULATE Inventory
TEST GE X$Stock,P$Demand
SAVEVALUE Stock-,P$Demand
SAVEVALUE Sold,P$Demand
TABULATE Sales
TERMINATE 1
.‫ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺴﻨﺪ ﻗﯿﻢ أوﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات‬INITIAL ‫ﻻﺣﻆ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ اﻷواﻣﺮ‬

‫أدﺧﻞ ھﺬا اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ وﺗﺮﺟﻤﮫ ﺛﻢ أظﮭﺮ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﻤﺤﻔﻮظﺔ‬
‫ أﺟﺮ اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬INITIAL ‫ﻻﺣﻆ أن اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﻤﺤﻔﻮظﺔ ﺑﺪأت ﺑﺎﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﺘﻲ اﺳﻨﺪت ﻟﮭﺎ ﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ اﻷواﻣﺮ‬
START 52
:‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﻤﺤﻔﻮظﺔ‬
:‫واﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ‬

CUM.%
INVENTORY 9.519 3.358 0
0.000 - 5.000 7
13.46
5.000 - 10.000 21
53.85
469
‫‪10.000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪15.000‬‬ ‫‪24‬‬
‫‪100.00‬‬
‫‪SALES‬‬ ‫‪1.327‬‬ ‫‪1.150‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫_‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪1.000‬‬ ‫‪32‬‬
‫‪61.54‬‬
‫‪1.000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪3.000‬‬ ‫‪17‬‬
‫‪94.23‬‬
‫‪3.000‬‬ ‫‪-‬‬ ‫‪5.000‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪100.00‬‬
‫‪SAVEVALUE‬‬ ‫‪RETRY‬‬ ‫‪VALUE‬‬

‫‪EOQ‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪10.000‬‬
‫‪POINT‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪6.000‬‬
‫‪STOCK‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪3.000‬‬
‫‪SOLD‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪4.000‬‬
‫ﺗﻤﺮﯾﻦ‪ :‬ﯾﺘﺮك ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻟﺐ إﺳﺘﺨﺮاج اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب وﺗﻔﺴﯿﺮ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‪.‬‬
‫‪470‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪15‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻤﺜﺎل ﺳﻮف ﻧﻘﺪم اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪ GATE‬واﻟﺬي ﯾﻐﯿﺮ ﺳﯿﺮ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ إﻋﺘﻤﺎدا ﻋﻠﻰ أو ﺑﺈﺧﺘﺒﺎر‬
‫وﻓﺤﺺ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻛﺎﺋﻦ‪ .‬وﻟﮫ اﻟﺘﺮﻛﯿﺐ‬
‫‪The GATE Block:‬‬
‫‪GATE O‬‬ ‫‪A,B‬‬
‫ﻋﺎﻣﻞ ﺷﺮطﻲ وھﻮ اﻟﺸﺮط اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﻣﻦ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ ان ﯾﺤﻘﻘﮫ‪ .‬وھﻮ ﺿﺮوري وﯾﺠﺐ ان‬ ‫‪O‬‬
‫ﯾﻜﻮن أﺣﺪ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪FNV, FV, I, LS, LR, M, NI, NM, NU, SE, SF, SNE,SNF, :‬‬
‫‪ SNV, SV, U‬وﺳﻮف ﻧﺸﺮح ﻣﺎﻧﺤﺘﺎج إﻟﯿﮫ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺜﺎل‪.‬‬

‫إﺳﻢ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ أو رﻗﻤﮫ اﻟﺬي ﯾﺨﺘﺒﺮ ﺣﯿﺚ ﻧﻮﻋﯿﺔ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ ﺗﻌﻄﻰ ﺿﻤﻨﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﺸﺮطﻲ‬ ‫‪A‬‬
‫وھﻮ ﺿﺮوري وﯾﺠﺐ ان ﯾﻜﻮن إﺳﻢ أو ﻋﺪد ﺻﺤﯿﺢ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ أو ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻗﻮﺳﯿﻦ أو‬
‫ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم او ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ‬
‫رﻗﻢ او رﻣﺰ اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ اﻟﺬي ﯾﺘﺠﮫ إﻟﯿﮫ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻓﺸﻞ اﻟﺸﺮط وھﻮ إﺧﺘﯿﺎري وﯾﺠﺐ أن‬ ‫‪B‬‬
‫ﯾﻜﻮن ﻻﺷﯿﺊ أو إﺳﻢ أو ﻋﺪد ﺻﺤﯿﺢ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ أو ﺗﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ ﻗﻮﺳﯿﻦ أو ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم‬
‫او ﺻﻔﺔ ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ‬
‫اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ‪:O‬‬
‫اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ اﻟﻤﻌﯿﻨﺔ ﺿﻤﻨﯿﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ‪ A‬ﯾﺠﺐ ان ﺗﻜﻮن ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﺘﻮﻓﺮة ﻟﻨﺠﺎح‬ ‫‪FNV‬‬
‫اﻟﺸﺮط‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ اﻟﻤﻌﯿﻨﺔ ﺿﻤﻨﯿﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ‪ A‬ﯾﺠﺐ ان ﺗﻜﻮن ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺘﻮﻓﺮة ﻟﻨﺠﺎح اﻟﺸﺮط‪.‬‬ ‫‪FV‬‬
‫اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ اﻟﻤﻌﯿﻨﺔ ﺿﻤﻨﯿﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ‪ A‬ﯾﺠﺐ ان ﺗﻜﻮن ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﺪم إﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻟﻨﺠﺎح‬ ‫‪NU‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺨﺰن اﻟﻤﻌﯿﻦ ﺿﻤﻨﯿﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ‪ A‬ﯾﺠﺐ ان ﯾﻜﻮن ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻓﺎرغ ﻟﻨﺠﺎح اﻟﺸﺮط أي‬ ‫‪SE‬‬
‫أن ﺟﻤﯿﻊ وﺣﺪات اﻟﻤﺨﺰن ﺗﻜﻮن ﺧﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪471‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺨﺰن اﻟﻤﻌﯿﻦ ﺿﻤﻨﯿﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ‪ A‬ﯾﺠﺐ ان ﯾﻜﻮن ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﻤﺘﻠﺊ ﻟﻨﺠﺎح اﻟﺸﺮط أي‬ ‫‪SF‬‬
‫أن ﺟﻤﯿﻊ وﺣﺪات اﻟﻤﺨﺰن ﺗﻜﻮن ﻣﺸﻐﻮﻟﺔ‪.‬‬

‫اﻟﻤﺨﺰن اﻟﻤﻌﯿﻦ ﺿﻤﻨﯿﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ‪ A‬ﯾﺠﺐ ان ﯾﻜﻮن ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻏﯿﺮ ﻓﺎرغ ﻟﻨﺠﺎح اﻟﺸﺮط‬ ‫‪SNE‬‬
‫أي أن ﻋﻠﻰ اﻷﻗﻞ وﺣﺪة واﺣﺪة ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺰن ﺗﻜﻮن ﻏﯿﺮ ﺧﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪.‬‬

‫اﻟﻤﺨﺰن اﻟﻤﻌﯿﻦ ﺿﻤﻨﯿﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ‪ A‬ﯾﺠﺐ ان ﯾﻜﻮن ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﻤﺘﻠﺊ ﻟﻨﺠﺎح‬ ‫‪SNF‬‬
‫اﻟﺸﺮط أي أن ﻋﻠﻰ اﻷﻗﻞ وﺣﺪة واﺣﺪة ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺰن ﯾﻤﻜﻦ إﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﮭﺎ‪.‬‬

‫اﻟﻤﺨﺰن اﻟﻤﻌﯿﻦ ﺿﻤﻨﯿﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ‪ A‬ﯾﺠﺐ ان ﯾﻜﻮن ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﺘﻮﻓﺮ ﻟﻨﺠﺎح‬ ‫‪SNV‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺨﺰن اﻟﻤﻌﯿﻦ ﺿﻤﻨﯿﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ‪ A‬ﯾﺠﺐ ان ﯾﻜﻮن ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺘﻮﻓﺮ ﻟﻨﺠﺎح اﻟﺸﺮط‪.‬‬ ‫‪SV‬‬
‫اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ اﻟﻤﻌﯿﻨﺔ ﺿﻤﻨﯿﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ‪ A‬ﯾﺠﺐ ان ﺗﻜﻮن ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ إﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻟﻨﺠﺎح اﻟﺸﺮط‪.‬‬ ‫‪U‬‬
‫ﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ﻧظﺎم ھﺎﺗف ﺑﺳﯾط‬
‫ﻧﻈﺎم ھﺎﺗﻒ ﺑﺴﯿﻂ ﯾﺘﻜﻮن ﻣﻦ ﺧﻄﯿﻦ‪ .‬اﻟﻤﻜﺎﻟﻤﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺄﺗﻲ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺨﺎرج ﺗﺼﻞ ﻛﻞ‬
‫دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‪.‬‬ ‫‪5±1‬‬ ‫دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‪ .‬إذا ﻛﺎن اﻟﺨﻂ ﻣﺸﻐﻮﻻ ﻓﺈن اﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﯾﻌﯿﺪ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺑﻌﺪ ﻣﺮور‬ ‫‪2 ±1‬‬
‫دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‪ .‬اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﺟﺪوﻟﺔ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ اﻟﻼزم اﻟﺬي ﯾﺴﺘﻐﺮﻗﺔ اﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ‬ ‫‪3±1‬‬ ‫ﺗﺴﺘﻐﺮق اﻟﻤﻜﺎﻟﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻹﻛﻤﺎل ﻣﻜﺎﻟﻤﺔ ﻧﺎﺟﺤﺔ‪ .‬ﻛﻢ طﻮل اﻟﻮﻗﺖ اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﻹﻛﻤﺎل ‪ 200‬ﻣﻜﺎﻟﻤﺔ؟‬

‫اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ‪:‬‬
‫‪Lines‬‬ ‫‪STORAGE‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬

‫‪TimeInsYS TABLE‬‬ ‫‪M1,.5,1,20‬‬
‫‪TryAgain‬‬ ‫‪GATE SNF‬‬ ‫‪Lines,Busy‬‬
‫‪ENTER‬‬ ‫‪Lines‬‬
‫‪ADVANCE‬‬ ‫‪3,1‬‬
‫‪LEAVE‬‬ ‫‪Lines‬‬
‫‪TABULATE‬‬ ‫‪TimeInSys‬‬
‫‪Busy‬‬ ‫‪ADVANCE‬‬ ‫‪5,1‬‬
‫‪472‬‬
‫‪TRANSFER‬‬ ‫‪,TryAgain‬‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ إﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪ GATE‬ﻣﻊ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﺸﺮطﻲ ‪ SNF‬أي اﻟﻤﺨﺰن اﻟﻤﻌﯿﻦ ﺿﻤﻨﯿﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ‪ A‬ﯾﺠﺐ‬
‫ان ﯾﻜﻮن ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﻤﺘﻠﺊ ﻟﻨﺠﺎح اﻟﺸﺮط أي أن ﻋﻠﻰ اﻷﻗﻞ ﺧﻂ واﺣﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻄﻮط اﻟﮭﺎﺗﻒ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ‬
‫إﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﮭﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪473‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻤﺨﺎزن‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺠﺪاول‬
LABEL LOC BLOCK TYPE ENTRY COUNT CURRENT COUNT RETRY
1 GENERATE 204 0 0
474
TRYAGAIN 2 GATE 295 0 0
3 ENTER 200 0 0
4 ADVANCE 200 0 0
5 LEAVE 200 0 0
6 TABULATE 200 0 0
7 TERMINATE 200 0 0
BUSY 8 ADVANCE 95 4 0
9 TRANSFER 91 0 0
STORAGE CAP. REM. MIN. MAX. ENTRIES AVL. AVE.C. UTIL. RETRY
DELAY
LINES 2 2 0 2 200 1 1.428 0.714 0 0

CUM.%
TIMEINSYS 5.040 4.550 0
1.500 - 2.500 38
19.00
2.500 - 3.500 73
55.50
3.500 - 4.500 40
75.50
4.500 - 5.500 0
75.50
5.500 - 6.500 0
75.50
6.500 - 7.500 7
79.00
7.500 - 8.500 15
86.50
8.500 - 9.500 9
91.00
9.500 - 10.500 0
91.00
10.500 - 11.500 3
92.50
11.500 - 12.500 1
93.00
12.500 - 13.500 2
94.00
13.500 - 14.500 1
94.50
14.500 - 15.500 2
95.50
15.500 - 16.500 0
95.50
16.500 - 17.500 0
95.50
17.500 - 18.500 3
97.00
18.500 - _ 6
100.00
.‫ ﯾﺘﺮك ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻟﺐ إﺳﺘﺨﺮاج وﺗﻔﺴﯿﺮ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‬:‫ﺗﻤﺮﯾﻦ‬
475
‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪16‬‬
‫ﻛﻢ ﯾﻜﺴﺐ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﻮل‪:‬‬
‫ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﺘﺴﺎوي ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 18‬و‪ 22‬﷼ ﺑﯿﻨﻤﺎ ذﻟﻚ ﻟﻠﺮﺟﺎل ﯾﺘﺒﻊ اﯾﻀﺎ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﺘﺴﺎوي ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 7‬و ‪10‬‬
‫﷼ ‪ .‬إذا ﻋﻠﻤﺖ أن اﻟﻤﺘﺴﻮﻟﺔ ﺗﻐﻄﻲ ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 10‬إﻟﻰ ‪ 15‬ﻣﻨﺰﻻ ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ ﺑﻨﻔﺲ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﻓﻘﺪر ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫دﺧﻠﮭﺎ اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻌﺪد ‪ 100‬أﯾﺎم ﺗﺴﻮل‪.‬‬
‫ﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ﯾﺨﺎطﺐ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﻮﻟﺔ ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﺪاﻟﺔ‬
‫‪WhoAnswer‬‬ ‫‪FUNCTION‬‬ ‫‪RN1,D2‬‬
‫‪0.8,Female/1.0,Male‬‬
‫ﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ ھﻞ ﺗﻌﻄﯿﮭﺎ أﻧﺜﻰ ﻣﺎل‬
‫‪FDonate‬‬ ‫‪FUNCTION‬‬ ‫‪RN1,D2‬‬
‫‪0.7,FYes/1.0,FNo‬‬
‫ﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ ھﻞ ﯾﻌﻄﯿﮭﺎ رﺟﻞ ﻣﺎل‬
‫‪MDonate‬‬ ‫‪FUNCTION‬‬ ‫‪RN1,D2‬‬
‫‪0.4,MYes/1.0,MNo‬‬
‫ﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ اﻟﻤﺒﻠﻎ اﻟﺬي ﺗﺪﻓﻌﮫ اﻷﻧﺜﻰ‬
‫‪FGive‬‬ ‫‪VARIABLE‬‬ ‫‪RN1@5+18‬‬
‫ﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ اﻟﻤﺒﻠﻎ اﻟﺬي ﯾﺪﻓﻌﮫ اﻟﺮﺟﻞ‬
‫‪MGive‬‬ ‫‪VARIABLE‬‬ ‫‪RN1@4+7‬‬
‫‪WhoAnswer‬‬ ‫‪FUNCTION‬‬ ‫‪RN1,D2‬‬
‫‪0.8,Female/1.0,Male‬‬
‫‪FDonate‬‬ ‫‪FUNCTION‬‬ ‫‪RN1,D2‬‬
‫‪0.7,FYes/1.0,FNo‬‬
‫‪MDonate‬‬ ‫‪FUNCTION‬‬ ‫‪RN1,D2‬‬
‫‪0.4,MYes/1.0,MNo‬‬
‫‪FGive‬‬ ‫‪VARIABLE‬‬ ‫‪RN1@5+18‬‬
‫‪MGive‬‬ ‫‪VARIABLE‬‬ ‫‪RN1@4+7‬‬
‫‪476‬‬
GENERATE 1
SAVEVALUE NumberOfHouses+,1
TRANSFER FN,WhoAnswer
Female TRANSFER FN,FDonate
FYes ASSIGN Donation,V$FGive
TRANSFER ,Fin1
FNo TRANSFER ,Fin2
Male TRANSFER FN,MDonate
MYes ASSIGN Donation,V$MGive
TRANSFER ,Fin1
MNo TRANSFER ,Fin2
Fin1 SAVEVALUE Total+,P$Donation
Fin2 TERMINATE
GENERATE 12.5,2.5
SAVEVALUE NumberOfDays+,1
TERMINATE 1
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﻤﺤﻔﻮظﺔ‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ‬
LABEL LOC BLOCK TYPE ENTRY COUNT CURRENT COUNT

RETRY
1 GENERATE 1232 0 0
477
2 SAVEVALUE 1232 0 0
3 TRANSFER 1232 0 0
FEMALE 4 TRANSFER 991 0 0
FYES 5 ASSIGN 695 0 0
6 TRANSFER 695 0 0
FNO 7 TRANSFER 296 0 0
MALE 8 TRANSFER 241 0 0
MYES 9 ASSIGN 100 0 0
10 TRANSFER 100 0 0
MNO 11 TRANSFER 141 0 0
FIN1 12 SAVEVALUE 795 0 0
FIN2 13 TERMINATE 1232 0 0
14 GENERATE 100 0 0
15 SAVEVALUE 100 0 0
16 TERMINATE 100 0 0
SAVEVALUE RETRY VALUE

NUMBEROFHOUSES 0 1232.000
TOTAL 0 14826.000
NUMBEROFDAYS 0 100.000
:‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻧﺠﺪ‬

‫ ﷼‬148.26 ‫ ﷼ أي ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ دﺧﻠﮭﺎ اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ ھﻮ‬14826 ‫ ﯾﻮم ﺟﻤﻌﺖ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﻮﻟﺔ‬100 ‫ ﻓﻲ‬-1
.( ‫ ﷼‬148.5 ‫) اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺮﯾﺔ‬
80.044.% ‫ أي ﻧﺴﺒﺔ‬1232 ‫ ﻣﻦ‬991 ‫ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻨﺴﺎء اﻵﺗﻲ أﺟﺒﻦ‬-2
70.13% ‫ دﻓﻌﻦ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﺴﻮﻟﺔ أي ﻧﺴﺒﺔ‬695 ‫ ﻣﻨﮭﻦ‬991 ‫ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻨﺴﺎء اﻵﺗﻲ أﺟﺒﻦ‬-3
478
‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪17‬‬
‫ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ‪:‬‬

‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.30‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬

‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬
‫ﺣﺪد ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﺪد اﻷرﻏﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﻌﺪھﺎ اﻟﺨﺒﺎز ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ‪.‬‬

‫ﻧﻜﻮن داﻟﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﻛﻞ ﯾﻮم‬
‫‪NCustmr‬‬ ‫‪FUNCTION RN1,D4‬‬
‫‪0.35,8/0.65,10/0.9,12/1.0,14‬‬
‫ﻧﻜﻮن داﻟﺔ ﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ ﻋﺪد اﻷرﻏﻔﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ زﺑﻮن‬
‫‪NLoaf FUNCTION RN1,D4‬‬
‫‪0.4,4/0.7,8/0.9,12/1.0,16‬‬
‫اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬
‫‪NCustmr‬‬ ‫‪FUNCTION‬‬ ‫‪RN1,D4‬‬

‫‪0.35,8/0.65,10/0.9,12/1.0,14‬‬
‫‪NLoaf‬‬ ‫‪FUNCTION‬‬ ‫‪RN1,D4‬‬
‫‪0.4,4/0.7,8/0.9,12/1.0,16‬‬
‫‪GENERATE‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪ASSIGN 1+,FN$NLoaf‬‬
‫‪ASSIGN 2,1‬‬
‫‪SAVEVALUE‬‬ ‫‪TotalCustomers+,P2‬‬
‫‪SAVEVALUE‬‬ ‫‪TotalLoafs+,P1‬‬
‫‪TERMINATE‬‬
‫‪479‬‬
‫‪GENERATE‬‬ ‫‪1,FN$NCustmr‬‬
‫‪SAVEVALUE‬‬ ‫‪TotalDays+,P1‬‬
‫اﻟﺤﻞ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ = ‪ 10.17 = 100/1017‬زﺑﻮن )ﻧﻈﺮﯾﺎ ‪ 10.2‬زﺑﻮن(‬

‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﺪد اﻷرﻏﻔﺔ = ‪ 82.28 = 100/8228‬رﻏﯿﻒ‪ ) .‬اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺮﯾﺔ ھﻲ ‪ 81.6‬رﻏﯿﻒ أو‬
‫ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺒﺎ ‪ 82‬رﻏﯿﻒ(‪.‬‬
‫‪480‬‬
‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪18‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻤﺜﺎل ﺳﻨﻘﺪم ﻛﯿﻔﯿﺔ إﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﺗﻮزﯾﻌﺎت ﻧﻈﺮﯾﺔ ﻣﺜﻞ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻄﺒﯿﻌﻲ واﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻻﺳﻲ ﻓﻲ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪.‬‬
‫دﻛﺎن ﺣﻼﻗﺔ ﯾﻌﻤﻞ ﺑﮫ ﻋﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ‪ ،‬ﯾﺼﻞ اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ إﻟﻰ اﻟﻤﺤﻞ ﺑﺄزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ وﺻﻮل ﻟﮭﺎ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﺳﻲ‬
‫ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 7‬دﻗﺎﺋﻖ‪ ،‬اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻷول ﯾﻘﻮم ﺑﺨﺪﻣﺔ اﻟﺰﺑﻮن ﺣﺴﺐ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ طﺒﯿﻌﻲ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 8‬دﻗﺌﻖ‬
‫وإﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﯿﺎري ‪ 3‬دﻗﺎﺋﻖ واﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ زﻣﻦ ﺧﺪﻣﺘﮫ اﯾﻀﺎ طﺒﯿﻌﻲ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 10‬دﻗﺎﺋﻖ‬
‫وإﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﯿﺎري ‪ 2‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ھﺬا اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﺣﺘﻰ ﺗﺘﻢ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ ‪ 100‬زﺑﻮن وأوﺟﺪ ﻣﻘﺎﯾﯿﺲ اﻷداء اﻟﻤﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﯾﻮﻟﺪ اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﺑﺄزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ وﺻﻮل ﻟﮭﺎ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﺳﻲ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 7‬دﻗﺎﺋﻖ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫‪GENERATE‬‬ ‫))‪(Exponential(1,0,7‬‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ دﻟﯿﻞ )‪ Exponential(1,0,7‬اﻟﺮﻗﻢ اﻷول ﯾﺪل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻮﻟﺪ اﻷﻋﺪاد اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ وھﻨﺎ أﺧﺘﺮﻧﺎ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻮﻟﺪ رﻗﻢ ‪) 1‬أي ‪ (RN1‬اﻟﺮﻗﻢ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻣﻌﻠﻢ اﻟﻤﻮﻗﻊ ﻟﻠﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻻﺳﻲ‬
‫) ‪( x−β‬‬
‫‪1 −‬‬
‫‪f ( x) = e‬‬ ‫‪λ‬‬ ‫‪, λ > 0, E ( X ) = λ + β , V ( X ) = λ 2‬‬
‫‪λ‬‬
‫اﻟﺮﻗﻢ اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ﻣﻌﻠﻢ اﻟﻘﯿﺎس ‪ Scale‬وھﻨﺎ ‪. λ = 7‬‬ ‫وھﻨﺎ ‪β = 0‬‬
‫زﻣﻦ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻷول ﯾﻮﻟﺪ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫‪ADVANCE‬‬ ‫))‪(Normal(1,8,3‬‬
‫اﻟﺮﻗﻢ اﻷول ﯾﺪل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻮﻟﺪ اﻷﻋﺪاد اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ وھﻨﺎ أﺧﺘﺮﻧﺎ اﻟﻤﻮﻟﺪ رﻗﻢ ‪1‬‬ ‫دﻟﯿﻞ )‪Normal(1,8,3‬‬
‫)أي ‪ (RN1‬اﻟﺮﻗﻢ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ واﻟﺮﻗﻢ اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ اﻹﻧﺤﺮاف اﻟﻤﻌﯿﺎري )ﻻﺣﻆ أﻧﻨﺎ ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻹﻧﺤﺮاف‬
‫اﻟﻤﻌﯿﺎري وﻟﯿﺲ اﻟﺘﺒﺎﯾﻦ(‪.‬‬
‫وﺑﺎﻟﻤﺜﻞ ﻟﻠﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‬
‫))‪ADVANCE (Normal(1,10,2‬‬
‫‪TRANSFER‬‬ ‫‪BOTH,Barb1,Barb2‬‬
‫‪Barb1‬‬ ‫‪SEIZE‬‬ ‫‪Barber1‬‬
‫‪ADVANCE‬‬ ‫))‪(Normal(1,8,3‬‬
‫‪481‬‬
RELEASE Barber1
TRANSFER ,Fin
Barb2 SEIZE Barber2
DEPART Line
ADVANCE (Normal(1,10,2))
RELEASE Barber2
Fin TERMINATE 1
‫اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‬

1 GENERATE 100 0 0
2 QUEUE 100 0 0
3 TRANSFER 100 0 0
BARB1 4 SEIZE 60 0 0
5 DEPART 60 0 0
6 ADVANCE 60 0 0
7 RELEASE 60 0 0
8 TRANSFER 60 0 0
BARB2 9 SEIZE 40 0 0
10 DEPART 40 0 0
11 ADVANCE 40 0 0
12 RELEASE 40 0 0
FIN 13 TERMINATE 100 0 0
482
DELAY
BARBER1 60 0.679 7.945 1 0 0 0 0
0
BARBER2 40 0.598 10.490 1 0 0 0 0
0

RETRY
LINE 6 0 100 50 0.540 3.793 7.585
0
.‫ ﯾﺘﺮك ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻟﺐ إﺳﺘﺨﺮاج وﺗﻔﺴﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب‬:‫ﺗﻤﺮﯾﻦ‬
483
‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪19‬‬
‫ﺗﺘﺤﺮك ﺳﯿﺎرات إﺳﻌﺎف ﻓﻲ ﻣﺪﯾﻨﺔ ﻛﺒﯿﺮة ﻣﺴﺘﺠﯿﺒﺔ ﻟﻨﺪاءات ﻧﺠﺪة ﺑﻤﻌﺪل واﺣﺪة ﻛﻞ ‪15 ± 10‬‬
‫دﻗﺎﺋﻖ‪ 15% .‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﺪاءات ﺗﻜﻮن ﻛﺎذﺑﺔ )أو ﻻﺗﺴﺘﺪﻋﻲ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ إﺳﻌﺎف( وﯾﺴﺘﻐﺮق اﻹﺳﻌﺎف ﻟﺘﻠﺒﯿﺘﮭﺎ‬
‫‪ 12‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‪ .‬ﺑﻘﯿﺔ اﻟﻨﺪاءات ﺟﺎدة وﺗﻜﻮن واﺣﺪة ﻣﻦ ﻧﻮﻋﯿﻦ‪ ،‬اﻟﻨﻮع اﻷول ﯾﺼﻨﻒ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻧﮫ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ‬ ‫‪±2‬‬
‫‪ 25‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ ﻹﻛﻤﺎﻟﮭﺎ أﻣﺎ ﺑﻘﯿﺔ اﻟﻨﺪاءات‬ ‫ﺣﺮﺟﺔ وﯾﺸﻜﻞ ‪ 15%‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﺤﺎﻻت اﻟﺠﺎدة وﺗﺴﺘﻐﺮق ‪± 5‬‬
‫‪ 20‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ ﻹﻛﻤﺎﻟﮭﺎ‪ .‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺮض اﻧﮫ ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﻋﺪد ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﺤﺪود ﻣﻦ ﺳﯿﺎرات‬ ‫ﻓﺈﻧﮭﺎ ﺗﺄﺧﺬ ‪± 10‬‬
‫اﻹﺳﻌﺎف وان اي ﻋﺪد ﻣﻨﮭﺎ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﯾﻜﻮن ﻓﻲ ﺗﻠﺒﯿﺔ ﻧﺪاء ﻣﺎ ﻋﻦ اي ﻟﺤﻈﺔ‪ .‬ﺣﺎﻛﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻟﺘﻠﺒﯿﺔ‬
‫‪ 500‬ﻧﺪاء‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ‪:‬‬
‫‪; Ambulance dispatch: Exersise 4.4‬‬
‫‪; Discrete-Event System Simulation,‬‬
‫‪; Banks,j et al‬‬
‫‪; Version 2‬‬
‫‪GENERATE‬‬ ‫‪15,10‬‬
‫‪QUEUE‬‬ ‫‪ALLQ‬‬
‫‪TRANSFER‬‬ ‫‪0.85,,NFALARM‬‬
‫‪QUEUE‬‬ ‫‪FALARMQ‬‬
‫‪SEIZE‬‬ ‫‪FALARMS‬‬
‫‪DEPART‬‬ ‫‪FALARMQ‬‬
‫‪ADVANCE‬‬ ‫‪12,2‬‬
‫‪RELEASE‬‬ ‫‪FALARMS‬‬
‫‪TRANSFER‬‬ ‫‪,OUT‬‬
‫‪NFALARM TRANSFER‬‬ ‫‪0.15,,SERIOUS‬‬
‫‪QUEUE‬‬ ‫‪NORMALQ‬‬
‫‪SEIZE‬‬ ‫‪NORMALS‬‬
‫‪DEPART‬‬ ‫‪NORMALQ‬‬
‫‪ADVANCE‬‬ ‫‪20,10‬‬
‫‪RELEASE‬‬ ‫‪NORMALS‬‬
‫‪TRANSFER‬‬ ‫‪,OUT‬‬
‫‪SERIOUS QUEUE‬‬ ‫‪SERIOUSQ‬‬
‫‪SEIZE‬‬ ‫‪SERIOUSS‬‬
‫‪DEPART‬‬ ‫‪SERIOUSQ‬‬
‫‪ADVANCE‬‬ ‫‪25,5‬‬
‫‪RELEASE‬‬ ‫‪SERIOUSS‬‬
‫‪OUT‬‬ ‫‪DEPART‬‬ ‫‪ALLQ‬‬
‫‪484‬‬

1 GENERATE 501 0 0
2 QUEUE 501 0 0
3 TRANSFER 501 0 0
4 QUEUE 76 0 0
5 SEIZE 76 0 0
6 DEPART 76 0 0
7 ADVANCE 76 0 0
8 RELEASE 76 0 0
9 TRANSFER 76 0 0
NFALARM 10 TRANSFER 425 0 0
11 QUEUE 359 0 0
12 SEIZE 359 0 0
13 DEPART 359 0 0
14 ADVANCE 359 1 0
15 RELEASE 358 0 0
16 TRANSFER 358 0 0
485
SERIOUS 17 QUEUE 66 0 0
18 SEIZE 66 0 0
19 DEPART 66 0 0
20 ADVANCE 66 0 0
21 RELEASE 66 0 0
OUT 22 DEPART 500 0 0
DELAY
NORMALS 359 0.952 20.068 1 501 0 0 0
0
SERIOUSS 66 0.222 25.475 1 0 0 0 0
0
FALARMS 76 0.121 12.087 1 0 0 0 0
0

RETRY
ALLQ 11 1 501 0 4.207 63.538 63.538
0
NORMALQ 8 0 359 26 2.879 60.678 65.416
0
SERIOUSQ 2 0 66 52 0.030 3.435 16.193
0
FALARMQ 1 0 76 71 0.002 0.237 3.595
0
.‫ ﯾﺘﺮك ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻟﺐ إﺳﺘﺨﺮاج وﺗﻔﺴﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‬:‫ﺗﻤﺮﯾﻦ‬
486
‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪20‬‬
‫ﺗﻄﻮع أﺣﺪ اﻵﺑﺎء ﻟﺘﺬﻛﯿﺮ اوﻟﯿﺎء اﻻﻣﻮر ﻟﺤﻀﻮر إﺟﺘﻤﺎع ﻣﺠﻠﺲ اﻵﺑﺎء ﺑﻤﺪرﺳﺔ اﻟﺤﻲ‪ .‬اﻋﻄﻲ ھﺬا‬
‫‪ 5‬ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺔ ﻟﯿﺠﺪ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺘﻄﻮع ﻣﻦ إدارة اﻟﻤﺪرﺳﺔ ﻗﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﺑﺘﻠﻔﻮﻧﺎت ‪ 100‬وﻟﻲ أﻣﺮ‪ .‬ﯾﺴﺘﻐﺮق اﻟﻤﺘﻄﻮع ‪± 2‬‬
‫‪ 30‬ﻟﺘﺬﻛﯿﺮه ﺑﺎﻹﺟﺘﻤﺎع‪.‬‬ ‫‪ 7 ± 2‬ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺔ ﻟﻄﻠﺐ اﻟﺮﻗﻢ و ‪± 5‬‬ ‫رﻗﻢ وﻟﻲ اﻷﻣﺮ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ و ﯾﺴﺘﻐﺮق‬
‫ھﻨﺎك إﺣﺘﻤﺎل ‪ 35%‬ان ﯾﺠﺪ اﻟﻤﺘﻄﻮع وﻟﻲ اﻷﻣﺮ ﻟﺘﺬﻛﯿﺮة‪ .‬ﻓﻜﻢ ﻋﺪد اوﻟﯿﺎء اﻻﻣﻮر اﻟﺬﯾﻦ أﺳﺘﻄﺎع‬
‫اﻟﺘﺤﺪث ﻣﻌﮭﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ اﺳﺎس اﻧﮫ ﯾﺤﺎول اﻟﻤﺤﺎدﺛﺔ ﻣﺮة واﺣﺪة ﻓﻘﻂ وﻛﻢ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻮﻗﺖ ﯾﺴﺘﻐﺮق ذﻟﻚ؟‬
‫اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬
‫‪; Parent Volunteer : Exersise 7.4‬‬
‫‪; Discrete-Event System Simulation,‬‬
‫‪; Banks,j et al‬‬
‫‪; Version 1‬‬
‫‪TTIME‬‬ ‫‪TABLE‬‬ ‫‪M1,10,10,20‬‬

‫‪GENERATE‬‬ ‫‪1,,,100‬‬
‫‪ADVANCE 5,2‬‬ ‫‪;FIND NUMBER‬‬
‫‪ADVANCE 7,2‬‬ ‫‪;DIAL NUMBER‬‬
‫‪TRANSFER‬‬ ‫‪0.65,,NCALL‬‬
‫‪ADVANCE 30,5‬‬ ‫‪;PLACE CALL‬‬
‫‪NCALL‬‬ ‫‪TABULATE‬‬ ‫‪TTIME‬‬
‫‪SAVEVALUE‬‬ ‫‪TOT +,M1‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﻤﺤﻔﻮظﺔ‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺠﺪاول‬
‫‪487‬‬
1 GENERATE 100 0 0
2 ADVANCE 100 0 0
3 ADVANCE 100 0 0
4 TRANSFER 100 0 0
5 ADVANCE 36 0 0
6 ASSIGN 36 0 0
NOCALL 7 TABULATE 100 0 0
8 SAVEVALUE 100 0 0
9 TERMINATE 100 0 0

CUM.%
TTIME 22.492 14.492 0
_ - 10.000 10
10.00
10.000 - 20.000 54
64.00
20.000 - 30.000 0
64.00
30.000 - 40.000 11
75.00
40.000 - 50.000 25
100.00

TOT 0 2249.236
.‫ ﯾﺘﺮك ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻟﺐ إﺳﺘﺨﺮاج وﺗﻔﺴﯿﺮ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‬:‫ﺗﻤﺮﯾﻦ‬
488
‫اﻟﻨﻤﺬﺟﺔ واﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﺣﺰﻣﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪: GPSS‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻔﺼﻞ ﺳﻮف ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﺣﺰﻣﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪ General Purpose Simulation System‬أو‬
‫‪ GPSS‬وھﻲ ﺣﺰﻣﺔ ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺗﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ أواﻣﺮ ‪ Commands‬وﻗﻮاﻟﺐ ‪ Blocks‬ﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة أي‬
‫ﻧﻈﺎم‪.‬‬
‫أواﻣر ‪: GPSS‬‬
‫‪• BVARIABLE‬‬
‫ﯾﻌرف ﻛﺎﺋن ﻣﺗﻐﯾر ﻣن اﻟﻧوع ‪Boolean‬‬
‫‪• CLEAR‬‬
‫ﯾﺻﻔر اﻟﻌدادات اﻹﺣﺻﺎﺋﯾﺔ وﯾﺗﺧﻠص ﻣن اﻟﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل ‪Transaction‬‬
‫‪• CONDUCT‬‬
‫ﯾﺟري ﺗﺟرﺑﺔ‬
‫‪• CONTINUE‬‬
‫ﯾﻛﻣل اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ‪ ،‬ﯾﺟﻌﻠﮭﺎ ﺗﺳﺗﻣر ﺑﻌد ﺗوﻗف‬
‫‪• EQU‬‬
‫ﯾﻌطﻲ ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾر اﻟﻣﺳﺗﺧدم‬
‫‪• EXIT‬‬
‫ﯾﻧﮭﻲ ﺟﻠﺳﺔ او دورة ‪GPSS‬‬
‫‪• FUNCTION‬‬
‫ﺗﻌرف ﻛﺎﺋن داﻟﺔ‬
‫‪• FVARIABLE‬‬
‫ﯾﻌرف ﻛﺎﺋن ﻣن ﻧوع ‪) Fvariable‬ﻣﺗﻐﯾر ﺗﺳﮭﯾﻠﺔ(‬
‫‪489‬‬
‫‪• HALT‬‬
‫ﯾوﻗف اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة وﯾﻣﺣﻲ ﻛل اﻷواﻣر اﻟﻣﻧﺗظرة اﻟﺗﻧﻔﯾذ ‪Queued Commands‬‬
‫‪• INCLUDE‬‬
‫ﯾﻘرأ وﯾﺗرﺟم ﻣﻠف ﻧﻣوذج ﺛﺎﻧوي‬
‫‪• INITIAL‬‬
‫ﯾﺳﺗﮭﻠل او ﯾطور ﻣﺣول ﻣﻧطﻘﻲ ‪ Logicswitch‬أو ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺣﻔظ ‪ Savevalue‬أو ﻛﺎﺋن ﻣﺻﻔوﻓﻲ ‪Matrix‬‬
‫‪Entity‬‬
‫‪• INTEGRATE‬‬
‫ﯾﻛﺎﻣل ﺗﻠﻘﺎﺋﯾﺎ ﻣﺷﺗﻘﺔ زﻣﻧﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺗﻐﯾر اﻟﻣﺳﺗﺧدم ‪User Variable‬‬
‫‪• MATRIX‬‬
‫ﯾﻌرف ﻛﺎﺋن ﻣﺻﻔوﻓﻲ‬
‫‪• QTABLE‬‬
‫ﯾﻌرف ﻛﺎﺋن ﻣن ﻧوع ‪) Qtable‬ﺟدول طﺎﺑور(‬
‫‪• REPORT‬‬
‫ﯾﺿﻊ إﺳﻣﺎ ﻟﻣﻠف اﻟﺗﻘرﯾر أو ﯾﺳﺗﺧدم ﻟطﻠب ﺗﻘرﯾر ﻓوري‬
‫‪• RESET‬‬
‫ﯾﺻﻔر إﺣﺻﺎﺋﯾﺎت اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة‬
‫‪• RMULT‬‬
‫ﯾﺿﻊ ﻧواة اﻟﻣوﻟدات اﻟﺳﺑﻌﺔ اﻻوﻟﻰ ﻟﻸﻋداد اﻟﻌﺷواﺋﯾﺔ‬
‫‪• SHOW‬‬
‫‪490‬‬
‫ﯾﻘدر ‪ evaluate‬و ﯾﻌرض ‪ display‬اﻟﻌﺑﺎرات ‪Expression‬‬
‫‪• START‬‬
‫ﯾﻌطﻲ ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﻟﻌداد اﻹﻧﮭﺎء ‪ Termination Count‬وﯾﺑدأ اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة‬
‫‪• STEP‬‬
‫ﯾﺟري اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ﺧطوة ﺑﺧطوة ﺑﺗﺟرﺑﺔ ﻋدد ﻣﺣدد ﻣن اﻟﻘواﻟب‬
‫‪• STOP‬‬
‫ﯾﺿﻊ ﺷرط ﺗوﻗف إﻋﺗﻣﺎدا ﻋﻠﻲ ﻣﺣﺎوﻻت دﺧول اﻟﻘﺎﻟب‬
‫‪• STORAGE‬‬
‫ﯾﻌرف ﻛﺎﺋن ﻣﺧزن ‪Storage Entity‬‬
‫‪• TABLE‬‬
‫ﯾﻌرف ﻛﺎﺋن ﺟدول ‪Table Entity‬‬
‫‪• VARIABLE‬‬
‫ﯾﻌرف ﻛﺎﺋن ﻣﺗﻐﺑر ‪Variable Entity‬‬
‫ﻋﺑﺎرات ﻗواﻟب ‪GPSS‬‬
‫‪The GPSS Block Statements‬‬
‫‪ADOPT‬‬
‫ﯾﻐﯾر ﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ اﻟﺗﺟﻣﯾﻊ ‪Assembly Set‬‬
‫‪ADVANCE‬‬
‫ﯾﺿﻊ ﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل ‪ Transaction‬ﻋﻠﻲ ﻗﺎﺋﻣﺔ اﻷﺣداث اﻟﻣﺳﺗﻘﺑﻠﯾﺔ ‪Future Events Chain‬‬
‫‪ALTER‬‬
‫‪491‬‬
‫ﯾﺧﺗﺑر وﯾﻌدل اﻟﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣﻠﯾن ﻓﻲ ﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ ‪Group‬‬
‫‪ASSEMBLE‬‬
‫ﯾﻧﺗظر وﯾﻧﮭﻲ اﻟﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣﻠﯾن اﻟﻣرﺗﺑطﯾن ‪related Transactions‬‬
‫‪ASSIGN‬‬
‫ﯾﻌدل ﻣﻌﻠم اﻟﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل ‪Transaction Parameter‬‬
‫‪BUFFER‬‬
‫ﯾﺿﻊ اﻟﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل ﻓﻲ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ ﻗﺎﺋﻣﺔ اﻷﺣداث اﻟﺣﺎﻟﯾﺔ ‪Current Events Chain‬‬
‫‪CLOSE‬‬
‫ﯾﻧﮭﻲ إدﺧﺎل ﺑﯾﺎﻧﺎت‬
‫‪COUNT‬‬
‫ﯾﺿﻊ ﺗﻌداد ‪ count‬اﻟﻛﺎﺋﻧﺎت ﻓﻲ ﻣﻌﻠم اﻟﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل ‪Transaction Parameter‬‬
‫‪DEPART‬‬
‫ﯾﻧﻘص ﻣن ﻣﺣﺗوﯾﺎت ﻛﺎﺋن طﺎﺑور ‪Queue Entity‬‬
‫‪DISPLACE‬‬
‫ﯾﻐﯾر اﻟﻘﺎﻟب اﻟﻣﺗﺳﻠﺳل اﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ‪ Next Sequential Block‬ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل‬
‫‪ENTER‬‬
‫اﻣﺗﻠك او اﻧﺗظر وﺣدات ﻣﺧزن ﻓﻲ ﻛﺎﺋن ﻣﺧزن ‪Storage Entity‬‬
‫‪EXAMINE‬‬
‫ﯾﺧﺗﺑر إﻧﺗﻣﺎء اﻟﻰ او ﻋﺿوﯾﺔ ﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ ‪group‬‬
‫‪EXECUTE‬‬
‫‪492‬‬
‫ﯾﻘوم ﺑﻧﺷﺎط ﺣدد ﺑواﺳطﺔ ﻗﺎﻟب آﺧر‬
‫‪FAVAIL‬‬
‫ﯾﻐﯾر ﻣن ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ‪ status‬ﻛﺎﺋن ﺗﺳﮭﯾﻠﺔ ‪ Facility Entity‬إﻟﻰ " ﻣﺗوﻓرة " "‪"available‬‬
‫‪FUNAVAIL‬‬
‫ﯾﻐﯾر ﻣن ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ‪ status‬ﻛﺎﺋن ﺗﺳﮭﯾﻠﺔ ‪ Facility Entity‬إﻟﻰ " ﻏﯾر ﻣﺗوﻓرة " "‪"not available‬‬
‫‪GATE‬‬
‫ﯾﺧﺗﺑر ﻛﺎﺋن وﯾﻌدل إﻧﺳﯾﺎب اﻟﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل ‪Transaction flow‬‬
‫‪GATHER‬‬
‫ﯾﻧﺗظر اﻟﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣﻠﯾن اﻟﻣرﺗﺑطﯾن ‪related Transactions‬‬
‫‪GENERATE‬‬
‫ﯾوﻟد ‪ Create‬ﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل ‪ Transaction‬وﯾﺿﻌﮫ ﻓﻲ ﻗﺎﺋﻣﺔ اﻷﺣداث اﻟﻣﺳﺗﻘﺑﻠﯾﺔ ‪Future Events Chain‬‬
‫‪INDEX‬‬
‫ﯾﻌدل ﻣﻌﻠم ﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل ‪Transaction Parameter‬‬
‫‪INTEGRATION‬‬
‫ﯾﺣول ﺗﻛﺎﻣل داﻟﺔ ﻣﺳﺗﺧدم ﻣن ‪ On‬إﻟﻰ ‪Off‬‬
‫‪JOIN‬‬
‫ﯾﺿﻊ ﻋﺿوا ﻓﻲ ﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ ﻋددﯾﺔ او ﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ ﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل ‪Numeric or Transaction Group‬‬
‫‪LEAVE‬‬
‫ﯾﺗرك او ﯾﺣرر وﺣدات ﻣﺧزن ‪ storage units‬ﻟﻛﺎﺋن ﻣﺧزن ‪Storage Entity‬‬
‫‪LINK‬‬
‫‪493‬‬
‫ﯾﻧﻘل او ﯾﺣرك ﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل اﻟﻰ ﻛﺎﺋن ﻗﺎﺋﻣﺔ ﻣﺳﺗﺧدم ‪Userchain Entity‬‬
‫‪LOGIC‬‬
‫ﯾﻌدل ﻛﺎﺋن ﻣﺣول ﻣﻧطﻘﻲ ‪Logicswitch Entity‬‬
‫‪LOOP‬‬
‫ﯾﻧﻘص ﻣن ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﻣﻌﻠم وﯾﻘﻔز اﻟﻲ ﻗﺎﻟب آﺧر إذا ﻛﺎﻧت اﻟﻧﺗﯾﺟﺔ ﻏﯾر ﺻﻔرﯾﺔ‬
‫‪MARK‬‬
‫ﯾﺿﻊ ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺳﺎﻋﺔ اﻟﻧظﺎم ﻓﻲ ﻣﻌﻠم اﻟﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل ‪Transaction Parameter‬‬
‫‪MATCH‬‬
‫ﯾﻧﺗظر اﻟﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣﻠﯾن اﻟﻣرﺗﺑطﯾن ﻟﻛﻲ ﯾﺻﻠوا إﻟﻲ ﻗﺎﻟب ‪ MATCH‬اﻟﻣﻘﺗرن‬
‫‪MSAVEVALUE‬‬
‫ﯾﻌطﻲ ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﻟﻌﻧﺻر ﻛﺎﺋن ﻣﺻﻔوﻓﺔ ‪Matrix Entity‬‬
‫‪OPEN‬‬
‫ﯾﺳﺗﮭﻠل إدﺧﺎل ﺑﯾﺎﻧﺎت‬
‫‪PLUS‬‬
‫ﯾﻘدر او ﯾﺣﺳب ﺗﻌﺎﺑﯾر ‪ PLUS‬وﯾﺣﻔظ اﻟﻧﺗﯾﺟﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻌﻠم‬
‫‪PREEMPT‬‬
‫ﯾزﯾﺢ او ﯾﺳﺗوﻟﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻠﻛﯾﺔ اﻟﺗﺳﮭﯾﻠﺔ‬
‫‪PRIORITY‬‬
‫ﯾﻌدل اﻓﺿﻠﯾﺔ ﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل‬
‫‪QUEUE‬‬
‫‪494‬‬
‫ﯾزﯾد ﻣﺣﺗوﯾﺎت ﻛﺎن طﺎﺑور‬
‫‪READ‬‬
‫ﯾﺣﺿر اﻟﺳطر اﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ ﻣن ﻣﻠف ﺑﯾﺎﻧﺎت‬
‫‪RELEASE‬‬
‫ﺣرر ﻛﺎﺋن اﻟﺗﺳﮭﯾﻠﺔ ‪Facility Entity‬‬
‫‪REMOVE‬‬
‫ﯾﺧرج ﻋﺿوا ﻣن ﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ ﻋددﯾﺔ او ﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ ﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل ‪Numeric or Transaction Group‬‬
‫‪RETURN‬‬
‫ﯾﺣرر ﻛﺎﺋن اﻟﺗﺳﮭﯾﻠﺔ ‪Facility Entity‬‬
‫‪SAVAIL‬‬
‫ﻏﯾر ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻛﺎﺋن اﻟﻣﺧزن إﻟﻰ " ﻣﺗوﻓر "‬
‫‪SAVEVALUE‬‬
‫ﺿﻊ ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﻟﻛﺎﺋن ‪Savevalue‬‬
‫‪SCAN‬‬
‫اﺧﺗﺑر ﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ ﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣﻠﯾن وﺿﻊ اﻟﻘﯾﻣﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻌﻠم‬
‫‪SEEK‬‬
‫ﻏﯾر ﻣؤﺷر اﻟﺳطر ﻓﻲ ﺑﯾﺎﻧﺎت ﻣدﺧﻠﺔ‬
‫‪SEIZE‬‬
‫اﻣﺗﻠك أو اﻧﺗظر ﻛﺎﺋن ﺗﺳﮭﯾﻠﺔ‬
‫‪495‬‬
‫‪SELECT‬‬
‫ﺿﻊ رﻗم اﻟﻛﺎﺋن اﻟﻣﺧﺗﺎر ﻓﻲ ﻣﻌﻠم اﻟﻣﺗﻔﺎﻋل‬
‫‪SPLIT‬‬
‫اﺧﻠﻖ ﻣﺗﻔﺎﻋل ﻣرﺗﺑط‬
‫‪SUNAVAIL‬‬
‫ﻏﯾر ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻛﺎﺋن اﻟﻣﺧزن إﻟﻰ " ﻏﯾر ﻣﺗوﻓر "‬
‫‪TABULATE‬‬
‫ﺟدد ﻛﺎﺋن ﺟدول‬
‫اﻧﮭﻲ ﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل واﻧﻘص ﻋداد اﻹﻧﮭﺎء‬
‫‪TEST‬‬
‫اﺧﺗﺑر اﻟﺷرط اﻟﺣﺳﺎﺑﻲ ‪ arithmetic condition‬وﻋدل إﻧﺳﯾﺎب اﻟﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل‬
‫‪TRACE‬‬
‫ﺿﻊ ﻣؤﺷر ﺗﻌﻘب ‪ Trace Indicator‬ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل اﻟﻧﺷط ‪Active Transaction‬‬
‫‪TRANSFER‬‬
‫ﺣرك او اﻧﻘل اﻟﻰ اﻟﻘﺎﻟب اﻟﻣﺣدد‬
‫‪UNLINK‬‬
‫ازل اﻟﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل ﻣن ﻛﺎﺋن ﻗﺎﺋﻣﺔ اﻟﻣﺳﺗﺧدم‬
‫‪UNTRACE‬‬
‫‪496‬‬
‫اﻏﻠﻖ ﻣؤﺷر اﻟﺗﻌﻘب ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل اﻟﻧﺷط‬
‫‪WRITE‬‬
‫ارﺳل ﻗﯾﻣﺔ اﻟﻲ ﻣﻠف اﻟﺑﯾﺎﻧﺎت‬
‫اﻟﺻﻔﺎت اﻟﻌددﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻧظﺎم اﻟﻣﺗوﻓرة ﻓﻲ ‪GPSS‬‬
‫‪System Numerical Attributes (SNA) available in GPSS:‬‬
‫‪• A1‬‬
‫ﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ اﻟﺗراﻛم ‪ Assembly Set‬ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل اﻟﻧﺷط‪ .‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺻﺣﯾﺣﺔ‬
‫‪• AC1‬‬
‫ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺳﺎﻋﺔ اﻟﻧظﺎم اﻟﻣطﻠﻘﺔ‪ .‬اﻟوﻗت اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﻰ ﻣن آﺧر ‪ .CLEAR‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺣﻘﯾﻘﯾﺔ‬
‫‪• BVEntnum‬‬
‫ﻧﺗﯾﺟﺔ ﺗﻘدﯾر ﻛﺎﺋن ﻣﺗﻐﯾر ﺑوﻟﻲ ‪ Boolean Variable Entity‬ﯾﺳﻣﻰ ‪ . Entnum‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺣﻘﯾﻘﯾﺔ‬
‫‪• C1‬‬
‫ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺳﺎﻋﺔ اﻟﻧظﺎم اﻟﻧﺳﺑﯾﺔ‪ .‬اﻟوﻗت اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﻰ ﻣن آﺧر ‪ .RESET‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺣﻘﯾﻘﯾﺔ‬
‫‪• CAEntnum‬‬
‫ﻣﺗوﺳط ﻣﺣﺗوى ﻗﺎﺋﻣﺔ اﻟﻣﺳﺗﺧدم‪ .‬اﻟﻣﺗوﺳط اﻟﻣوزون ﻟﻌدد ازﻣﻧﺔ اﻟﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣﻠﯾن اﻟﻣﺗﺳﻠﺳﻠﯾن ﻓﻲ ﻗﺎﺋﻣﺔ ﻣﺳﺗﺧدم ﺗﺳﻣﻰ‬
‫‪ .Entnum‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺣﻘﯾﻘﯾﺔ‬
‫‪• CCEntnum‬‬
‫ﻋدد اﻟدﺧول اﻟﻛﻠﻲ ﻟﻘﺎﺋﻣﺔ ﻣﺳﺗﺧدم‪ .‬ﺗﻌداد ﻛل اﻟﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣﻠﯾن اﻟﻣﺳﻠﺳﻠﯾن إﻟﻰ ﻗﺎﺋﻣﺔ اﻟﻣﺳﺗﺧدم اﻟﻣﺳﻣﺎة ‪. Entnum‬‬
‫ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺻﺣﯾﺣﺔ‬
‫‪• CHEntnum‬‬
‫‪497‬‬
‫ﻣﺣﺗوﯾﺎت ﻗﺎﺋﻣﺔ ﻣﺳﺗﺧدم ﺣﺎﻟﯾﺔ‪ .‬ﻋدد اﻟﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣﻠﯾن اﻟﺣﺎﻟﯾﯾن اﻟﻣﺳﻠﺳﻠﯾن إﻟﻰ ﻗﺎﺋﻣﺔ اﻟﻣﺳﺗﺧدم اﻟﻣﺳﻣﺎة ‪. Entnum‬‬
‫‪• CMEntnum‬‬
‫اﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺣﺗوى ﻟﻘﺎﺋﻣﺔ ﻣﺳﺗﺧدم‪ .‬اﻋﻠﻰ ﻋدد ﻣن اﻟﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣﻠﯾن اﻟﻣﺳﻠﺳﻠﯾن إﻟﻰ ﻗﺎﺋﻣﺔ اﻟﻣﺳﺗﺧدم اﻟﻣﺳﻣﺎة ‪. Entnum‬‬
‫‪• CTEntnum‬‬
‫ﻣﺗوﺳط زﻣن اﻟﻣﻛوث ﻓﻲ ﻗﺎﺋﻣﺔ ﻣﺳﺗﺧدم‪ .‬ﻣﺗوﺳط ﻣﻛوث ﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل ﻓﻲ ﻗﺎﺋﻣﺔ اﻟﻣﺳﺗﺧدم اﻟﻣﺳﻣﺎة ‪ . Entnum‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ‬
‫ﺣﻘﯾﻘﯾﺔ‬
‫‪• FEntnum‬‬
‫ﺗﺳﮭﯾﻠﺔ ﻣﺷﻐوﻟﺔ‪ .‬إذا ﻛﺎن ﻛﺎﺋن اﻟﺗﺳﮭﯾﻠﺔ اﻟﻣﺳﻣﺎة ‪ Entnum‬ﻣﺷﻐول ﺣﺎﻟﯾﺎ‪ Fentnum ،‬ﺗرﺟﻊ ‪ 1‬وإﻻ ﺗرﺟﻊ ‪0‬‬
‫‪• FCEntnum‬‬
‫ﺗﻌداد ﺷﻐل اﻟﺗﺳﮭﯾﻠﺔ‪ .‬ﻋدد اﻟﻣرات اﻟﺗﻲ اﻣﺗﻠك ‪ SEIZE‬او اﻓرغ ‪ PREEMPT‬ﻛﺎﺋن اﻟﺗﺳﮭﯾﻠﺔ اﻟﻣﺳﻣﻲ‬
‫‪ Entnum‬ﺑﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل‪ .‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺻﺣﯾﺣﺔ‬
‫‪• FIEntnum‬‬
‫اﻟﺗﺳﮭﯾﻠﺔ اﻟﻣﺳﻣﺎة ‪ Entnum‬ﻗوطﻌت‪ .‬إذا ﻛﺎن ﻛﺎﺋن اﻟﺗﺳﮭﯾﻠﺔ ‪ Entnum‬اﻓرغ ﺣﺎﻟﯾﺎ‪ FIEntnum ،‬ﺗرﺟﻊ ‪1‬‬
‫وإﻻ ﺗرﺟﻊ ‪ . 0‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺻﺣﯾﺣﺔ‬
‫‪• FNEntnum‬‬
‫داﻟﺔ‪ .‬ﻧﺗﯾﺟﺔ ﺗﻘﯾﯾم ﻛﺎﺋن اﻟداﻟﺔ ‪ . Entnum‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺣﻘﯾﻘﯾﺔ‬
‫‪• FREntnum‬‬
‫ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯾﺔ اﻟﺗﺳﮭﯾﻠﺔ‪ .‬اﻟﺟزء ﻣن اﻟزﻣن اﻟذي ﻛﺎن ﻓﯾﺔ ﻛﺎﺋن اﻟﺗﺳﮭﯾﻠﺔ ‪ Entnum‬ﻣﺷﻐول‪ .‬وﯾﻣﺛل ﻛﺟزء ﻣن ‪1000‬‬
‫ﺟزء وﻟﮭذا ﯾرﺟﻊ ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺑﯾن ‪ 0‬و ‪ 1000‬إﺷﺗﻣﺎﻻ‪ ،‬وﻗد ﯾﻛون ﻏﯾر ﺻﺣﯾﺢ )ﯾﺷﻣل ﺟزء ﻋﺷري( ‪ .‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺣﻘﯾﻘﯾﺔ‬
‫‪• FTEntnum‬‬
‫‪498‬‬
‫ﻣﺗوﺳط زﻣن إﻣﺳﺎك اﻟﺗﺳﮭﯾﻠﺔ‪ .‬ﻣﺗوﺳط اﻟزﻣن اﻟذى اﻣﺗﻠك ﻓﯾﮫ ﻛﺎﺋن اﻟﺗﺳﮭﯾﻠﺔ ‪ Entnum‬ﺑﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل‪ .‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺣﻘﯾﻘﯾﺔ‬
‫‪• FVEntnum‬‬
‫ﺗﺳﮭﯾﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺗوﻓر‪ FVEntnum .‬ﺗرﺟﻊ ‪ 1‬إذا ﻛﺎن ﻛﺎﺋن اﻟﺗﺳﮭﯾﻠﺔ ‪ Entnum‬ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺗوﻓر )أي ﻓﺎرﻏﺔ(‬
‫وإﻻ ﺗرﺟﻊ ‪ .0‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺻﺣﯾﺣﺔ‬
‫‪• GNEntum‬‬
‫ﺗﻌداد ﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ ﻋددﯾﺔ‪ GNEntnum .‬ﺗرﺟﻊ ﺗﻌداد ﻋﺿوﯾﺔ ﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ ﻋددﯾﺔ ‪ . Entnum‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺻﺣﯾﺣﺔ‬
‫‪• GTEntnum‬‬
‫ﺗﻌداد ﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ ﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣﻠﯾن‪ GTEntnum .‬ﺗرﺟﻊ ﺗﻌداد ﻋﺿوﯾﺔ ﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ ﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣﻠﯾن ‪ . Entnum‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺻﺣﯾﺣﺔ‬
‫‪• LSEntnum‬‬
‫ﻣﺣول ﻣﻧطﻘﻲ ﺟﺎھز‪ LSEntnum .‬ﺗﻌﯾد ‪ 1‬إذا ﻛﺎن ﻛﺎﺋن اﻟﻣﺣول اﻟﻣﻧطﻘﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ " ﺟﺎھز " وإﻻ ﺗﻌﯾد ‪. 0‬‬
‫‪• MBEntnum‬‬
‫ﯾوﻓﻖ ‪ Match‬ﻋﻧد ﻗﺎﻟب‪ MBEntnum .‬ﯾﻌﯾد ‪ 1‬إذا وﺟد ﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل ﻋﻧد ﻗﺎﻟب ‪ Entnum‬واﻟذي ﻟﮫ ﻧﻔس‬
‫ﻣﺟﻣوﻋﺔ اﻟﺗﺟﻣﯾﻊ ‪ Assembly Set‬ﻛﺎﻟﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل اﻟﻧﺷط ‪ MBEntnum .Active Transaction‬ﺗﻌﯾد ‪1‬‬
‫وإﻻ ‪ . 0‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺻﺣﯾﺣﺔ‬
‫‪• MPParameter‬‬
‫زﻣن اﻹﻧﺗﻘﺎل‪ ،‬ﻣﻌﻠم‪ .‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺳﺎﻋﺔ اﻟﻧظﺎم اﻟﻣطﻠﻘﺔ اﻟﺣﺎﻟﯾﺔ ﻧﺎﻗﺻﺎ ﻗﯾﻣﺔ اﻟﻣﻌﻠم ‪ . Parameter‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺣﻘﯾﻘﯾﺔ‬
‫)‪• MXEntnum(m,n‬‬
‫ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺣﻔظ ﻣﺻﻔوﻓﻲ‪ .‬ﯾﻌﯾد )ﯾﻌطﻲ( اﻟﻘﯾﻣﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺳطر ‪ m‬واﻟﻌﻣود ‪ n‬ﻟﻛﺎﺋن اﻟﻣﺻﻔوﻓﻲ ‪Entnum‬‬
‫‪• M1‬‬
‫اﻟوﻗت اﻹﻧﺗﻘﺎﻟﻲ‪ M1 .‬ﯾﻌﯾد ﺳﺎﻋﺔ اﻟﻧظﺎم اﻟﻣطﻠﻘﺔ ﻧﺎﻗﺻﺎ زﻣن اﻟﺗﺟﮭﯾز "‪ "Mark Time‬ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل‪ .‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺣﻘﯾﻘﯾﺔ‬
‫‪499‬‬
‫‪• NEntnum‬‬
‫ﺗﻌداد دﺧول ﻗﺎﻟب‪ .‬ﯾﻌﺎد ﻋدد اﻟﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣﻠﯾن اﻟﻛﻠﻲ اﻟذي دﺧل اﻟﻘﺎﻟب ‪ . Entnum‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺻﯾﺣﺔ‬
‫‪• PParameter or *Parameter‬‬
‫ﻗﯾﻣﺔ اﻟﻣﻌﻠم‪ Pparameter .‬أو ‪ *Parameter‬ﯾﻌﯾد ﻗﯾﻣﺔ اﻟﻣﻌﻠم ‪ Parameter‬ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل اﻟﻧﺷط‪ .‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ‬
‫ﺻﺣﯾﺣﺔ او ﺣﻘﯾﻘﯾﺔ او ﺣرﻓﯾﺔ‬
‫‪• PR‬‬
‫اﻓﺿﻠﯾﺔ ﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل‪ .‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ اﻓﺿﻠﯾﺔ ﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل ﻧﺷط‪ .‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺻﺣﯾﺣﺔ‬
‫‪• QEntnum‬‬
‫ﻣﺣﺗوﯾﺎت اﻟطﺎﺑور اﻟﺣﺎﻟﻲ‪ .‬ﺗﻌداد ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﻣﺣﺗوى ﻛﺎﺋن اﻟطﺎﺑور اﻟﺣﺎﻟﻲ ‪ . Entnum‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺻﺣﯾﺣﺔ‬
‫‪• QAEntnum‬‬
‫ﻣﺗوﺳط ﻣﺣﺗوي اﻟطﺎﺑور‪ .‬اﻟﻣﺗوﺳط اﻟزﻣﻧﻲ اﻟﻣوزون ﻟﻠﻌدد ﻓﻲ ﻛﺎﺋن اﻟطﺎﺑور ‪ . Entnum‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺣﻘﯾﻘﯾﺔ‬
‫‪• QCEntnum‬‬
‫اﻟﻌدد اﻟﻛﻠﻲ اﻟداﺧل ﻟﻠطﺎﺑور‪ .‬ﺟﻣﻊ ﺟﻣﯾﻊ ﺗﻌدادات اﻟدﺧول إﻟﻲ ﻛﺎﺋن طﺎﺑور ‪ . Entnum‬ﻗﺑﻣﺔ ﺻﺣﯾﺣﺔ‬
‫‪• QMEntnum‬‬
‫أﻗﺻﻰ ﻣﺣﺗوى ﻟﻠطﺎﺑور‪ .‬اﻟﺗﻌداد اﻷﻗﺻﻰ ﻟﻛﺎﺋن اﻟطﺎﺑور ‪ . Entnum‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺻﺣﯾﺣﺔ‬
‫‪• QTEntnum‬‬
‫ﻣﺗوﺳط زﻣن اﻟﻣﻛوث ﻓﻲ طﺎﺑور‪ .‬اﻟﻣﺗوﺳط اﻟزﻣﻧﻲ اﻟﻣوزون ﻟﻠﺗﻌداد ﻟﻛﺎﺋن اﻟطﺎﺑور ‪ . Entnum‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺻﺣﯾﺣﺔ‬
‫‪• QXEntnum‬‬
‫ﻣﺗوﺳط زﻣن اﻟﻣﻛوث ﻓﻲ طﺎﺑور ﻣﻊ ﻋدم إﻋﺗﺑﺎر اﻟﻣدﺧﻼت اﻟﺻﻔرﺑﺔ‪ .‬اﻟﻣﺗوﺳط اﻟزﻣﻧﻲ اﻟﻣوزون ﻟﻠﺗﻌداد ﻟﻛﺎﺋن‬
‫اﻟطﺎﺑور ‪ Entnum‬ﻣﻊ ﻋدم ﺣﺳﺎب اﻟداﺧﻠﯾن اﻟﺗﻲ ﻟﮭﺎ ازﻣﻧﺔ ﻣﻛوث ﺻﻔرﯾﺔ‪ .‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺣﻘﯾﻘﯾﺔ‬
‫‪• QZEntnum‬‬
‫‪500‬‬
‫ﺗﻌداد اﻟداﺧﻠﯾن اﻟﺻﻔرﯾﯾن ﻟﻠطﺎﺑور‪ .‬ﻋدد اﻟداﺧﻠﯾن ﻟﻛﺎﺋن اﻟطﺎﺑور ‪ Entnum‬اﻟﺗﻲ ﻟﮭﺎ ازﻣﻧﺔ ﻣﻛوث ﺻﻔرﯾﺔ‪ .‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ‬
‫ﺻﺣﯾﺣﺔ‬
‫‪• REntnum‬‬
‫ﻣﺗوﺳط ﺳﻌﺔ اﻟﻣﺧزن‪ .‬ﻣﺣﺗوﯾﺎت اﻟﻣﺧزن اﻟﻣﺗﺎﺣﺔ ﻟﻺﺳﺗﻌﻣﺎل ﺑﺎﻟﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣﻠﯾن اﻟداﺧﻠﯾن إﻟﻲ ﻛﺎﺋن اﻟﻣﺧزن ‪. Entnum‬‬
‫‪• RNEntnum‬‬
‫رﻗم ﻋﺷواﺋﻲ‪ RNEntnum .‬ﯾﻌﯾد رﻗم ﺻﺣﯾﺢ ﻋﺷواﺋﻲ ﺑﯾن ‪ 0-999‬ﻣن ﻣوﻟد اﻻرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺷواﺋﯾﺔ ‪Entnum‬‬
‫‪ .‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺻﺣﯾﺣﺔ‬
‫‪• SEntnum‬‬
‫اﻟﺗﺧزﯾن اﻟﻣﺳﺗﺧدم‪ SEntnum .‬ﯾﻌﯾد ﻣﻘدار ﻣﺣﺗوﯾﺎت اﻟﻣﺧزن اﻟﻣﺷﻐوﻟﺔ ﺣﺎﻟﯾﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣﻠﯾن اﻟداﺧﻠﯾن ﻛﺎﺋن‬
‫اﻟﻣﺧزن ‪ . Entnum‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺻﺣﯾﺣﺔ‬
‫‪• SAEntnum‬‬
‫ﻣﺗوﺳط اﻟﺗﺧزﯾن اﻟﻣﺳﺗﺧدم‪ SAEntnum .‬ﯾﻌﯾد اﻟﻣﺗوﺳط اﻟزﻣﻧﻲ اﻟﻣوزون ﻟﺳﻌﺔ اﻟﻣﺧزن اﻟﻣﺳﺗﻌﻣﻠﺔ ﻋﻧد ﻛﺎﺋن‬
‫اﻟﻣﺧزن ‪ . Entnum‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺣﻘﯾﻘﯾﺔ‬
‫‪• SCEntnum‬‬
‫ﺗﻌداد إﺳﺗﺧدام اﻟﻣﺧزن‪ .‬اﻟﻌدد اﻟﻛﻠﻲ ﻟوﺣدات اﻟﻣﺧزن اﻟﻣﺷﻐوﻟﺔ ﻣن ﻛﺎﺋن اﻟﻣﺧزن ‪ . Entnum‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺻﺣﯾﺣﺔ‬
‫‪• SEEntnum‬‬
‫اﻟﻣﺧزن ﻓﺎرغ‪ SEEntnum .‬ﺗﻌﯾد ‪ 1‬إذا ﻛﺎن ﻛﺎﺋن اﻟﻣﺧزن ‪ Entnum‬ﻣﺗوﻓر ﺑﻛﺎﻣﻠﮫ وإﻻ ﺗﻌﯾد ‪ . 0‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ‬
‫‪• SFEntnum‬‬
‫اﻟﻣﺧزن ﻣﻣﺗﻠﺊ‪ SFEntnum .‬ﺗﻌﯾد ‪ 1‬إذا ﻛﺎن ﻛﺎﺋن اﻟﻣﺧزن ‪ Entnum‬ﻣﻣﺗﻠﺊ ﺑﻛﺎﻣﻠﮫ وإﻻ ﺗﻌﯾد ‪ . 0‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ‬
‫‪• SREntnum‬‬
‫‪501‬‬
‫ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯾﺔ اﻟﻣﺧزن‪ .‬ﻛﺳر ﻣن اﻹﺳﺗﺧدام اﻟﻛﻠﻲ ﻣﺗﻣﺛل ﺑﻣﺗوﺳط اﻟﻣﺧزن اﻟﻣﺳﺗﺧدم ﻓﻲ ﻛﺎﺋن اﻟﻣﺧزن ‪. Entnum‬‬
‫وﯾﻌﺑر ﻋﻧﮫ ﻛﺟزء ﻣن اﻟف ﺟزء وﯾﻌﯾد ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺑﯾن ‪ 0-1000‬ﺣﺻرﯾﺎ وﻗد ﯾﺄﺧذ ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﻛﺳرﯾﺔ‪ .‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺣﻘﯾﻘﯾﺔ‬
‫‪• SMEntnum‬‬
‫أﻗﺻﻰ ﻣﺧزون ﻓﻲ اﻹﺳﺗﻌﻣﺎل ﻓﻲ ﻛﺎﺋن اﻟﻣﺧزن ‪ . Entnum‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺻﺣﯾﺣﺔ‬
‫‪• STEntnum‬‬
‫ﻣﺗوﺳط زﻣن اﻟﻣﻛوث ﻟﻛل وﺣدة ﻓﻲ ﻛﺎﺋن اﻟﻣﺧزن ‪ . Entnum‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺣﻘﯾﻘﯾﺔ‬
‫‪• SVEntnum‬‬
‫اﻟﻣﺧزن ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﺗوﻓر‪ SVEntnum .‬ﺗﻌﯾد ‪ 1‬إذا ﻛﺎن اﻟﻛﺎﺋن ‪ Entnum‬ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﺗوﻓر وإﻻ ﺗﻌﯾد ‪ . 0‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ‬
‫‪• TBEntnum‬‬
‫اﻟﻣﺗوﺳط ﻏﯾر اﻟﻣوزون ﻟﻠﻘﯾم ﻓﻲ ﻛﺎﺋن اﻟﺟدول ‪ . Entnum‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺣﻘﯾﻘﯾﺔ‬
‫‪• TCEntnum‬‬
‫ﺗﻌداد ﻗﯾم اﻟﺟدول اﻟﻐﯾر ﻣوزوﻧﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻛﺎﺋن اﻟﺟدول ‪ . Entnum‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺻﺣﯾﺣﺔ‬
‫‪• TDEntnum‬‬
‫اﻹﻧﺣراف اﻟﻣﻌﯾﺎري ﻟﻘﯾم اﻟﺟدول اﻟﻐﯾر ﻣوزوﻧﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻛﺎﺋن اﻟﺟدول ‪ . Entnum‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺣﻘﯾﻘﯾﺔ‬
‫‪• TG1‬‬
‫اﻟﺑﺎﻗﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻋداد اﻹﻧﮭﺎء‪ TG1 .‬ﺗﻌﯾد اﻟﻌد اﻟذي ﯾﺗﻧﺎﻗص ﺑواﺳطﺔ اﻟﻘواﻟب ‪ TERMINATE‬اﻟﺗﻲ ﯾﻛون ﻓﯾﮭﺎ‬
‫اﻟﻣﻌﻠم ‪ A‬ﻣوﺟب ‪ ،‬وھﻲ اﻟﺗﻲ ﺗﺳﺗﮭل ﺑﻌﺑﺎرة ‪ START‬وﺗﺑﯾن إﻧﺗﮭﺎء اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة ﻋﻧدﻣﺎ ﺗﻛون ﻗﯾﻣﺗﺔ ‪ . 0‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ‬
‫‪• VEntnum‬‬
‫ﻧﺗﯾﺟﺔ ﺗﻘﯾﯾم ﻛﺎﺋن اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾر ‪ Entnum‬اﻟﺣﺳﺎﺑﻲ او اﻟﻧﻘطﺔ اﻟﻌﺎﺋﻣﺔ ‪ . floating point‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺣﻘﯾﻘﯾﺔ‬
‫‪502‬‬
‫‪• WEntnum‬‬
‫ﺗﻌداد اﻟﻘﺎﻟب اﻟﺣﺎﻟﻲ‪ .‬ﻋدد اﻟﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣﻠﯾن اﻟﺣﺎﻟﯾﯾن ﻓﻲ ﻛﺎﺋن اﻟﻘﺎﻟب ‪ . Entnum‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺻﺣﯾﺣﺔ‬
‫‪• XEntnum‬‬
‫ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﻣﺣﻔوظﺔ ‪ . Savevalue‬ﺗﻌﺎد ﻗﯾﻣﺔ اﻟﻛﺎﺋن ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﻣﺣﻔوظﺔ ‪ . Entnum‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺻﺣﯾﺣﺔ او ﺣﻘﯾﻘﯾﺔ او ﺣرﻓﯾﺔ‬
‫‪• XN1‬‬
‫رﻗم اﻟﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل اﻟﻧﺷط‪ .‬ﯾﻌﺎد رﻗم اﻟﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل ﻟﻠﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل اﻟﻧﺷط‪ .‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺻﺣﯾﺣﺔ‬
‫‪• Z1‬‬
‫اﻟذاﻛرة اﻟﺣرة‪ .‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺗﻌﺎد ﺑواﺳطﺔ ﻧظﺎم اﻟﺗﺷﻐﯾل‪ .‬ﻗﯾﻣﺔ ﺻﺣﯾﺣﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻼﺣظﺎت‪:‬‬
‫رﻣز ‪) W22‬ﺻﻔﺔ اﻟﻌددﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻧظﺎم ‪ (SNA‬ﯾﻌﯾد ﻋدد اﻟﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣﻠﯾن اﻟﻣﻧﺗظرﯾن ﻓﻲ اﻟﻘﺎﻟب رﻗم ‪ . 22‬ﻣﻌرف اﻟﻘﺎﻟب‬
‫ﻓﻲ ھذه اﻟﺣﺎﻟﺔ ھو اﻟرﻗم ‪ 22‬وﻟﻛن ﯾوﺟد اﺷﻛﺎل اﺧرى ﻟﻠﺗﻌﺑﯾر ﻧﻔﺳﺔ وھﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪• Wj‬‬
‫ﺣﯾث ‪ j‬ﻋدد ﺻﺣﯾﺢ ﻣوﺟب‪ ،‬رﻗم اﻟﻘﺎﻟب ﻓﻲ اﻟﻣﺣﺎﻛﺎة‬
‫‪• W$Name‬‬
‫ﺣﯾث ‪ Name‬ھو ﻣوﻗﻊ اﻟﻘﺎﻟب اﻟﻣﻌﻧﻲ‬
‫‪• W*j‬‬
‫ﺣﯾث ‪ j‬ﻋدد ﺻﺣﯾﺢ ﻣوﺟب‪ ،‬رﻗم ﻣﻌﻠم اﻟﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل اﻟﻧﺷط اﻟذي ﯾﺣوي رﻗم اﻟﻘﺎﻟب اﻟﻣﻌﻧﻲ‪ .‬وھذه ﻋﻧوﻧﺔ ﻏﯾر ﻣﺑﺎﺷرة‬
‫‪indirect addressing‬‬
‫‪• W*Name‬‬
‫ﺣﯾث ‪ Name‬ھو إﺳم ﻣﻌﻠم اﻟﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل اﻟﻧﺷط اﻟذي ﯾﺣوي رﻗم اﻟﻘﺎﻟب اﻟﻣﻌﻧﻲ‪ .‬وھذه ﻋﻧوﻧﺔ ﻏﯾر ﻣﺑﺎﺷرة‬
‫‪503‬‬
‫‪• W*$Name‬‬
‫ﺣﯾث ‪ Name‬ھو إﺳم ﻣﻌﻠم اﻟﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل اﻟﻧﺷط اﻟذي ﯾﺣوي رﻗم اﻟﻘﺎﻟب اﻟﻣﻌﻧﻲ‪ .‬ﻣﻛﺎﻓﺋﺔ ﻟﺳﺎﺑﻘﺗﮭﺎ‬
‫‪• W*Parameter‬‬
‫وﺗﺑﯾن إﻣﻛﺎﻧﯾﺔ إﺳﺗﺧدام أي ﻣن ‪ W*j‬او ‪ W*Name‬او ‪W*$Name‬‬
‫اﻟﻌﻣﺎل ‪ Operators‬اﻟﻣﺳﺗﺧدﻣﺔ ﻓﻲ ‪:GPSS‬‬
‫^‬
‫اﻟرﻓﻊ ﻷس‪ A^B .‬ﺗﻌﯾد ‪ A‬ﻣرﻓوع ﻟﻠﻘوة ‪.B‬‬
‫‪#‬‬
‫ﺿرب‪ A # B .‬ﺗﻌﯾد اﻟﻧﺗﯾﺟﺔ اﻟﻌددﯾﺔ ﻟﺿرب ‪ A‬ﻓﻲ ‪B‬‬
‫‪/‬‬
‫ﻗﺳﻣﺔ‪ A / B .‬ﺗﻌﯾد ﻧﺗﯾﺟﺔ ﻗﺳﻣﺔ ‪ A‬ﻋﻠﻰ ‪B‬‬
‫\‬
‫اﻟﻘﺳﻣﺔ اﻟﺻﺣﯾﺣﺔ ‪ A \ B .Integer Division‬ﺗﻌﯾد ﻧﺗﯾﺟﺔ اﻟﻘﺳﻣﺔ اﻟﺻﺣﯾﺣﺔ ﻟـ ‪ A‬ﻋﻠﻰ ‪B‬‬
‫@‬
‫اﻟﻣﺗﺑﻘﻲ اﻟﺻﺣﯾﺢ ‪ A @ B .Integer Remainder‬ﺗﻌﯾد ﺑﺎﻗﻲ ﻗﺳﻣﺔ ‪ Modulo Division‬ﻟـ ‪ A‬ﻋﻠﻰ ‪B‬‬
‫‪-‬‬
‫طرح‪ A - B .‬ﺗﻌﯾد اﻟﻔرق ﺑﯾن ‪ A‬و ‪B‬‬
‫‪+‬‬
‫ﺟﻣﻊ‪ A + B .‬ﺗﻌﯾد ﻣﺟﻣوع ‪ A‬و ‪B‬‬
‫’‪>= ‘GE‬‬
‫‪504‬‬
‫أﻛﺑر ﻣن أو ﯾﺳﺎوي‪ A >= B .‬ﺗﻌﯾد ‪ 1‬إذا ﻛﺎﻧت ‪ A‬اﻛﺑر أو ﺗﺳﺎوي ﻋددﯾﺎ ‪ B‬وإﻻ ﺗﻌﯾد ‪ 0‬ﻏﯾر ذﻟك‬
‫’‪<= ‘LE‬‬
‫أﻗل ﻣن أو ﯾﺳﺎوي‪ A <= B .‬ﺗﻌﯾد ‪ 1‬إذا ﻛﺎﻧت ‪ A‬أﻗل أو ﺗﺳﺎوي ﻋددﯾﺎ ‪ B‬وإﻻ ﺗﻌﯾد ‪ 0‬ﻏﯾر ذﻟك‬
‫’‪> ‘G‬‬
‫أﻛﺑر ﻣن‪ A > B .‬ﺗﻌﯾد ‪ 1‬إذا ﻛﺎﻧت ‪ A‬أﻛﺑر ﻋددﯾﺎ ﻣن ‪ B‬وإﻻ ﺗﻌﯾد ‪ 0‬ﻏﯾر ذﻟك‬
‫’‪< ‘L‬‬
‫أﻗل ﻣن‪ A < B .‬ﺗﻌﯾد ‪ 1‬إذا ﻛﺎﻧت ‪ A‬أﻗل ﻋددﯾﺎ ﻣن ‪ B‬وإﻻ ﺗﻌﯾد ‪ 0‬ﻏﯾر ذﻟك‬
‫’‪= ‘E‬‬
‫ﻣﺳﺎوى‪ A = B .‬ﺗﻌﯾد ‪ 1‬إذا ﻛﺎﻧت ‪ A‬ﻣﺳﺎوى ﻋددﯾﺎ ﻣن ‪ B‬وإﻻ ﺗﻌﯾد ‪ 0‬ﻏﯾر ذﻟك‬
‫’‪!= ‘NE‬‬
‫ﻟﯾس ﻣﺳﺎوى ﻟـ ‪ A != B .‬ﺗﻌﯾد ‪ 1‬إذا ﻛﺎﻧت ‪ A‬ﻣﺧﺗﻠﻔﺔ ﻋددﯾﺎ ﻣن ‪ B‬وإﻻ ﺗﻌﯾد ‪ 0‬ﻏﯾر ذﻟك‬
‫’‪& ‘AND‬‬
‫و اﻟﻣﻧطﻘﯾﺔ‪ A & B .‬ﺗﻌﯾد ‪ 1‬إذا وﻓﻘط إذا ﻛﺎن ﻛل ﻣن ‪ A‬و ‪ B‬ﻏﯾر ﺻﻔرﯾﺔ وإﻻ ﺗﻌﯾد ‪ 0‬ﻏﯾر ذﻟك‬
‫’‪| ‘OR‬‬
‫أو اﻟﻣﻧطﻘﯾﺔ‪ A ‘OR’ B .‬ﺗﻌﯾد ‪ 1‬إذا ﻛﺎن ‪ A‬أو ‪ B‬أوﻛﻼھﻣﺎ ﻏﯾر ﺻﻔري وإﻻ ﺗﻌﯾد ‪ 0‬ﻏﯾر ذﻟك‬
‫ﻣﻼﺣظﺔ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﻛﺎﺋﻧﺎت اﻟﺗﺎﻟﯾﺔ ﯾﺟب إﻋﻼﻧﮭﺎ ‪ declared‬ﻗﺑل أن ﯾﻣﻛن إﺳﺗﺧداﻣﮭﺎ‪:‬‬
‫ﻛﺎﺋﻧﺎت اﻟﻣﺧزن ﯾﺟب إﻋﻼﻧﮭﺎ ﺑﻌﺑﺎرة ‪STORAGE‬‬ ‫•‬

‫اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾرات اﻟﺣﺳﺎﺑﯾﺔ ﯾﺟب إﻋﻼﻧﮭﺎ ﺑﻌﺑﺎرة ‪VARIABLE‬‬ ‫•‬
‫ﻣﺗﻐﯾرات اﻟﻧﻘطﺔ اﻟﻌﺎﺋﻣﺔ ‪ Floating point‬ﯾﺟب إﻋﻼﻧﮭﺎ ﺑﻌﺑﺎرة ‪FVARIABLE‬‬ ‫•‬
‫اﻟﻣﺗﻐﯾرات اﻟﺑووﻟﯾﺔ ‪ Boolean‬ﯾﺟب إﻋﻼﻧﮭﺎ ﺑﻌﺑﺎرة ‪BVARIABLE‬‬ ‫•‬
‫اﻟﻣﺻﻔوﻓﺎت ﯾﺟب إﻋﻼﻧﮭﺎ ﺑﻌﺑﺎرة ‪MATRIX‬‬ ‫•‬
‫‪505‬‬
‫اﻟﺟداول ﯾﺟب إﻋﻼﻧﮭﺎ ﺑﻌﺑﺎرة ‪TABLE‬‬ ‫•‬
‫ﺟداول اﻟطﺎﺑور ‪ Qtables‬ﯾﺟب إﻋﻼﻧﮭﺎ ﺑﻌﺑﺎرة ‪QTABLE‬‬ ‫•‬
‫اﻟدوال ﯾﺟب إﻋﻼﻧﮭﺎ ﺑﻌﺑﺎرة ‪ FUNCTION‬وﻋﺑﺎرة ﻣﺎﯾﺗﺑﻊ اﻟداﻟﺔ‬ ‫•‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﻟم اﻟﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣﻠﯾن ‪ Transaction Parameters‬ﯾﺟب إﻋﻼﻧﮭﺎ ﺑﻌﺑﺎرات ‪ ASSIGN‬و ‪MARK‬‬ ‫•‬
‫و ‪ READ‬و ‪ SELECT‬و ‪ SPLIT‬و ‪ COUNT‬و ‪TRANSFER SUB‬‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﺴﺘﻌﺮض ﺣﺰﻣﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪ GPSS‬ﻓﻲ اﻷﻣﺜﻠﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪506‬‬
.‫ ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺷﺒﺎك ﺗﺬاﻛﺮ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻣﺪﺧﻞ ﻣﻠﻌﺐ ﻛﺮة اﻟﻘﺪم‬-1
:‫ﻋﺮض اﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ‬
.‫ ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺔ وﯾﻘﻔﻮا ﻓﻲ طﺎﺑﻮر ﻟﺸﺮاء اﻟﺘﺬاﻛﺮ‬7±7 ‫ﯾﺼﻞ اﻟﻤﺸﺠﻌﻮن اﻟﻰ ﺷﺒﺎك ﺗﺬاﻛﺮ ﻣﻠﻌﺐ ﻛﺮة ﻗﺪم ﻛﻞ‬
.‫ ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺔ‬5±3 ‫ﯾﺴﺘﻐﺮق زﻣﻦ ﺷﺮاء اﻟﺘﺬاﻛﺮ واﻟﻮﺻﻮل اﻟﻰ داﺧﻞ اﻟﻤﻠﻌﺐ‬
.‫ ﻣﺸﺠﻊ اﻟﻰ داﺧﻞ اﻟﻤﻠﻌﺐ‬300 ‫اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﺑﻨﺎء ﻧﻤﻮذج ﻟﺘﺤﺪﯾﺪ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﻟﺪﺧﻮل‬
: GPSS ‫ﻋﺮض اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺑﻠﻐﺔ‬
; GPSS World Sample File - TURNSTIL.GPS, by Gerard F. Cummings

**************************************************************
* *
* Turnstile Model *
* Time is in seconds *
**************************************************************
In_use EQU 5 ;Mean time
Range EQU 3 ;Half range
GENERATE 7,7 ;People arrive
QUEUE Turn ;Enter queue
SEIZE Turn ;Acquire turnstile
DEPART Turn ;Depart the queue
ADVANCE In_use,Range ;Use turnstile
RELEASE Turn ;Leave turnstile
TERMINATE 1 ;One spectator enters
**************************************************************
:‫وﺻﻒ ﻋﻤﻞ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‬
GENERATE
‫ ) ھﻨﺎ اﻟﻤﺸﺠﻌﯿﻦ ( ﻟﻠﻮﺻﻮل‬Transactions ‫ ﯾﺴﺒﺐ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ‬GENERATE Block ‫اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ‬

.‫ ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺔ‬7±7 ‫ﻋﻨﺪ ﺷﺒﺎك اﻟﺘﺬاﻛﺮ ﻛﻞ‬
QUEUE
507
‫اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪ QUEUE‬ﻣﻊ اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪ DEPART‬ﯾﺠﻤﻊ إﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺎت ﻋﻦ طﺎﺑﻮر اﻟﻤﺸﺠﻌﯿﻦ اﻟﺬﯾﻦ ﻟﻢ‬
‫ﯾﺪﺧﻠﻮا اﻟﻤﻠﻌﺐ ﺑﻌﺪ وﻻزاﻟﻮا ﯾﻨﺘﻈﺮوا ﻋﻨﺪ ﺷﺒﺎك اﻟﺘﺬاﻛﺮ‪ .‬ﻛﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ‪ Queue Entity‬ﺑﻠﻐﺔ‬
‫‪ GPSS‬ﺳﻤﻰ ھﻨﺎ ‪Turn‬‬
‫‪SEIZE‬‬
‫اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪ SEIZE‬ﯾﺘﻢ اﻟﺪﺧﻮل اﻟﯿﮫ ﺑﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻨﺘﻈﺮ واﺣﺪ ﺑﻤﺠﺮد ﺧﻠﻮ ﺷﺒﺎك اﻟﺘﺬاﻛﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ‬
‫اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ إذا وﺟﺪ‪ .‬وھﺬا ﯾﺴﺒﺐ ﻓﻲ إﻧﺸﻐﺎل اﻟﺸﺒﺎك ﻣﻤﺎ ﯾﺆدي إﻟﻲ ﻣﻨﻊ اي ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻦ دﺧﻮل ﻗﺎﻟﺐ‬
‫‪SEIZE‬‬
‫‪DEPART‬‬
‫ﺑﻤﺠﺮد ان ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﯾﺸﻐﻞ ‪ SEIZE‬اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ ‪ Facility‬اﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﺑﺸﺒﺎك اﻟﺘﺬاﻛﺮ ﻓﺈﻧﮫ ﯾﺪﺧﻞ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ‬
‫‪ DEPART‬وذﻟﻚ ﻟﺠﻤﻊ إﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺎت ﻋﻦ ﻛﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ‪ Turn‬ﻻﺣﻆ ان زﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻻﯾﺸﻤﻞ‬
‫اﻟﺰﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻐﺮق ﻋﻨﺪ ﺷﺒﺎك اﻟﺘﺬاﻛﺮ‪.‬‬
‫‪ADVANCE‬‬
‫ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ ADVANCE‬ﯾﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﻓﻲ طﻮل زﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة اﻟﺬي ﯾﺴﺘﻐﺮﻗﮫ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻓﻲ إﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ‬
‫)ﺷﺒﺎك اﻟﺘﺬاﻛﺮ( واﻟﺘﻲ ﻗﺪ ﺗﻢ ﺷﻐﻠﮭﺎ ﺑﮭﺎ وﻓﻲ ھﺬه اﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﯾﺄﺧﺬ ﺷﺒﺎك اﻟﺘﺬاﻛﺮ ‪ 5±3‬ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺔ ﻹدﺧﺎل‬
‫اﻟﻤﺸﺠﻊ‪ .‬ﻻﺣﻆ اﻧﻨﺎ أﺳﺘﺨﺪﻣﻨﺎ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ إﺳﻤﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ ADVANCE‬وذﻟﻚ ﻟﺴﮭﻮﻟﺔ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ‬
‫ﻋﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪ Block operands‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺳﻨﺮى ﻻﺣﻘﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪RELEASE‬‬
‫ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ RELEASE‬ﯾﺴﺒﺐ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻓﻲ إﻓﺮاغ اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ ) ﺷﺒﺎك اﻟﺘﺬاﻛﺮ ( ﺑﺤﯿﺚ ﺗﻜﻮن ﻣﺘﻮﻓﺮه‬
‫ﻟﻜﻲ ﺗﺸﻐﻞ ﺑﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ آﺧﺮ وذﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﺧﻮل ﻓﻲ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪SEIZE‬‬
‫ﻣﮭﻤﺔ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ TERMINATE‬ھﻲ إزاﻟﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﻌﺪ ﻣﺮوره ﻣﻦ ﺷﺒﺎك اﻟﺘﺬاﻛﺮ‪.‬‬
‫إﺟﺮاء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﺨﻄﻮات اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﺗﺠﺮي اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة وﺗﻮﻟﺪ ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺮ ﻣﻌﯿﺎري‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺮﺋﯿﺴﯿﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ إﺧﺘﺎر‬
‫‪508‬‬
‫‪File / Open‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪ ظﮭﻮر ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار إﺧﺘﺎر‬
‫‪TURNSTIL‬‬
‫ﺛﻢ‬
‫‪Open‬‬
‫ﻹﺟﺮاء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة إﺧﺘﺎر‬
‫‪Command / Create Simulation‬‬
‫ﺛﻢ إﺧﺘﺎر‬
‫‪Command / START‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار اﺳﺘﺒﺪل ‪ 1‬ﺑـ‬
‫‪300‬‬
‫ﺛﻢ إﺿﻐﻂ‬
‫‪OK‬‬
‫ﺗﻨﺘﮭﻲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻋﻨﺪ ﻣﺮور ‪ 300‬ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺑﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪ TERMINATE‬وھﺬا ﯾﻤﺜﻞ ﻣﺮور ‪ 300‬ﻣﺸﺠﻊ‬
‫ﺑﺸﺒﺎك اﻟﺘﺬاﻛﺮ‪ .‬ﻋﻨﺪ إﻧﺘﮭﺎء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﯾﻘﻮم ‪ GPSS‬ﺑﻜﺘﺎﺑﺔ ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺮ إﻟﻲ ﻣﻠﻒ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ اﻟﺘﻘﻠﯿﺪي ‪default‬‬
‫‪ report file‬اﻟﻤﺴﻤﻲ ‪ Turnstil.1.1‬وﯾﻈﮭﺮ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ذاﺗﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﻘﺎرﯾﺮ واﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ‬
‫ﻣﺸﺎھﺪﺗﮭﺎ ﻓﻲ اي وﻗﺖ وذﻟﻚ ﺑﺈﺧﺘﯿﺎر ‪ File / Open‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺮﺋﯿﺴﯿﺔ ﺛﻢ إﺧﺘﯿﺎر ‪ Report‬ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻹﺧﺘﯿﺎرات ‪. Files of type‬‬
‫ﺗﻜﺘﺐ ﺗﻘﺎرﯾﺮ ‪ GPSS‬ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺧﺎص وﻟﻨﻘﻠﮭﺎ ﯾﺠﺐ ﻧﺴﺨﮭﺎ إﻟﻲ ﻟﻮﺣﺔ اﻟﻨﺴﺦ ‪ clipboard‬ﺛﻢ ﻟﺼﻘﮭﺎ‬
‫ﻓﻲ اي ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺗﻨﺴﯿﻖ ﻛﻠﻤﺎت ‪word processor‬‬
‫‪509‬‬
‫ﻣﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‪:‬‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ‪ End Time‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ اﻟﻤﻌﯿﺎري ﻧﺮي أن ‪ 2134.023‬ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺔ ﻣﺮت ﻟﺪﺧﻮل اﻟﻤﺸﺠﻊ رﻗﻢ‬
‫‪ 300‬ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﺷﺒﺎك اﻟﺘﺬاﻛﺮ ) ﺗﻜﺮﯾﺮ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻣﺮة اﺧﺮي ﯾﻌﻄﻲ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻗﻠﯿﻼ وذﻟﻚ‬
‫ﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﻈﺎھﺮة( ﻻﺣﻆ ان ﻗﻮاﻟﺐ ‪ QUEUE‬و ‪ DEPART‬ﻻﺗﻄﻮق أو ﺗﺤﺼﺮ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ‬
‫‪ ADVANCE‬وھﺬا ﯾﻌﻨﻲ ان اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ ﯾﺴﺠﻞ ﻟﮭﻢ زﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻓﻲ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ﻓﻘﻂ وﻟﯿﺲ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻛﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ‪ Queue Entity‬اﻟﻤﺴﻤﻲ ‪ Turn‬إذا ﻧﻈﺮﻧﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ إﻟﻲ اﻟﺠﺰء‬
‫اﻟﺨﺎص ﺑـ ‪ Queue Entity‬وﺗﺤﺖ ‪ QUEUE Turn‬ﻧﺮي ان اﻗﺼﻰ ﻋﺪد ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺠﻌﯿﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻨﺘﻈﺮﯾﻦ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ھﻮ ‪ 3‬وھﺬا ﻟﯿﺲ ﺳﯿﺌﺎ‪ .‬ﺳﻮف ﻧﺨﺘﺒﺮ ﺑﺪاﺋﻞ اﺧﺮى ﻻﺣﻘﺎ‪.‬‬
‫داﺧﻞ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪:‬‬
‫ﻟﻨﺴﺘﻜﺸﻒ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪ ending condition of the simulation‬واﻟﺬي وﻟﺪ ﻟﻨﺎ‬
‫اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ اﻟﻤﻌﯿﺎري ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﺳﻮف ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻷﻣﺮ ‪ SHOW‬ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺮ إﻟﻰ ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﺼﻔﺎت اﻟﻌﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم‬
‫‪ (SNA) System Numeric Attributes‬ﺣﯿﺚ اﻧﮭﺎ ﺳﮭﻠﺔ اﻹﺳﺘﺨﺪام وﺳﻨﺮي أي ﻣﻨﮭﺎ ﻣﺘﻮﻓﺮ‬
‫ﻟﻨﺎ ﻓﻲ ھﺬة اﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ‪.‬‬
‫اوﻻ ﺳﻨﻨﻈﺮ إﻟﻲ ﺳﺎﻋﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﺤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ‪ ،‬إﺧﺘﺎر‬
‫‪Command / SHOW‬‬
‫وﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار أﻛﺘﺐ ‪ AC1‬ﺛﻢ إﺿﻐﻂ ‪ OK‬ﻋﻠﻲ ﺧﻂ اﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ‪ status line‬ﻓﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة‬
‫اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ‪ Model Window‬ﺳﺘﺮى ان ﺳﺎﻋﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﺤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ھﻲ ‪2134.023‬‬
‫ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﺷﺒﺎك اﻟﺘﺬاﻛﺮ ‪ utilization‬واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻌﻄﻲ اﻟﺠﺰء ﻣﻦ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ اﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻹﻧﺸﻐﺎل اﻟﺸﺒﺎك ) ﻛﺄﺟﺰاء‬
‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﻒ( ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﺑﺈﺧﺘﯿﺎر اﻷﻣﺮ‬
‫ﺛﻢ إﺧﺘﺎر ‪ OK‬ھﺬا ﯾﻌﻄﻲ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ ‪689.67‬‬ ‫‪FR$Turn‬‬ ‫وﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار أﻛﺘﺐ‬
‫)‪ ( Fractional Busy Time‬وھﻮ ﻣﻌﻄﻲ ﻛﺎﺟﺰاء ﻣﻦ اﻟﻒ‬
‫ﻹﯾﺠﺎد ﻋﺪد اﻟﻤﺸﺠﻌﯿﻦ اﻟﻮاﺻﻠﯿﻦ ﻟﺸﺒﺎك اﻟﺘﺬاﻛﺮ إﺧﺘﺎر‬
‫‪510‬‬
‫وﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار اﻛﺘﺐ ‪ N1‬ﺛﻢ ‪ OK‬وﻛﻤﺎ ھﻮ ﻣﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﺳﺘﻜﻮن ‪300‬‬
‫اﻵن ﻟﻨﻔﺤﺺ ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﺮﺳﻮﻣﺎت‪ ،‬إﺧﺘﺎر‬
‫‪Window / Simulation Window / Facilities Window‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻼت ) ﻛﺒﺮ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة ﻟﺘﺮي ﻛﻞ ﻣﺤﺘﻮﯾﺎﺗﮭﺎ( ﻧﻼﺣﻆ ان ﺷﺒﺎك اﻟﺘﺬاﻛﺮ ﻛﺎن ﻣﺸﻐﻮﻻ‬
‫ﺣﻮاﻟﻲ ‪ 70%‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﻮﻗﺖ واﻧﮫ ﻓﻲ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻛﺎن ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﺸﻐﻮل ) ﻋﺎطﻞ ‪ ( idle‬ﻻﺣﻆ ان‬
‫اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ اﻟﻤﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﻟﺸﺒﺎك اﻟﺘﺬاﻛﺮ ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﺸﻐﻮﻟﺔ ) ﻟﻮﻧﮭﺎ رﻣﺎدي أي ﻏﯿﺮ ﻧﺸﻄﺔ( وﻻ ﯾﻤﻠﻜﮭﺎ اي‬
‫ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ‬
‫ﻟﻨﻠﻘﻲ ﻧﻈﺮة ﻋﻠﻲ اﯾﻦ ﯾﻮﺟﺪ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ‪ ،‬إﺧﺘﺎر‬
‫‪Window / Simulation Window / Blocks‬‬
‫وھﺬا ﯾﻌﻄﻰ اﻟﻤﻨﻈﺮ اﻟﻤﻔﺼﻞ ﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ ‪Detailed View of the Blocks Window‬‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ اﻧﺔ ﻻﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻓﻌﺎل او ﻧﺸﻂ وذﻟﻚ ﻷن اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ رﻗﻢ ‪ 301‬ﺗﻮا ﯾﺤﺎول اﻟﺪﺧﻮل إﻟﻲ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة وان اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ رﻗﻢ ‪ 300‬ﻗﺪ اﻧﺘﮭﻰ ﻟﺤﻈﯿﺎ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪ .‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﻨﻈﺮ اﻟﻤﻔﺼﻞ ﺗﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﻣﻦ ان‬
‫ﻧﺸﺎھﺪ ﺗﺎرﯾﺦ اﻟﺪﺧﻮل اﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﻘﻮاﻟﺐ اﺛﻨﺎء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪ .‬اﻟﻨﻈﺮ اﻟﻰ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ ﯾﺒﯿﻦ اﻟﻌﺪد اﻟﻜﻠﻲ‬
‫ﻟﺪﺧﻮل اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ وھﻮ ﯾﻤﻜﻨﺎ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﻣﻦ ان اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ ﯾﻤﺮوا ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻛﻤﺎ ھﻮ ﻣﺘﻮﻗﻊ‪ .‬اﻵن‬
‫اﻏﻠﻖ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ‪.‬‬
‫اﻵن ﺳﻮف ﻧﻌﯿﺪ إﺟﺮاء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻟﻨﻨﻈﺮ إﻟﯿﮭﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﻧﻮاﻓﺬ اﺧﺮى‪ .‬ﻟﻨﺒﺪأ ﺑﺘﺤﻀﯿﺮ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻌﺒﺎرات‬
‫اﻟﺠﺒﺮﯾﺔ ‪ Expressions Window‬إﺧﺘﺎر‬
‫‪Window / Simulation Window / Expressions Window‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻌﺒﺎرات اﻟﺠﺒﺮﯾﺔ وﻓﻲ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ ‪ Label‬اﻛﺘﺐ‬
‫‪Number of people‬‬
‫وﻓﻲ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﻌﺒﺎرة ‪ Expression field‬اﻛﺘﺐ ‪ N3‬ھﺬا ﺳﯿﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪة ﻋﺪد اﻟﻤﺸﺠﻌﯿﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺎرﯾﻦ ﺑﺸﺒﺎك اﻟﺘﺬاﻛﺮ‪ .‬ﻣﻦ ﺧﻮاص ‪ GPSS‬اﻧﮫ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺟﻤﻊ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﺑﻜﻞ ﺳﮭﻮﻟﺔ إذ اﻧﮫ ﯾﻮﻓﺮ‬
‫‪511‬‬
‫اﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ‪ 50‬ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﺗﻠﻘﺎﺋﯿﺎ واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺼﻒ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت‪ .‬اﻵن أﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻲ ‪ View‬ﺛﻢ ﻋﻠﻲ‬
‫‪Memorize‬‬
‫وھﺬا ﯾﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺣﻔﻆ اﻟﻌﺒﺎرات واﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ إﺳﺘﺨﺪاﻣﮭﺎ ﻻﺣﻘﺎ‪ .‬اﯾﻀﺎ ﺑﺤﻔﻆ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻓﺈن ھﺬا‬
‫ﺳﯿﺤﻔﻆ اﻟﻌﺒﺎرات ﻟﻺﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻣﺮة اﺧﺮي‪.‬‬
‫دﻋﻨﺎ ﻧﻨﻈﺮ اﯾﻀﺎ ﻟﻌﺪد اﻟﻤﺸﺠﻌﯿﻦ اﻟﺤﺎﻟﯿﯿﻦ ﻓﻲ طﺎﺑﻮر اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻟﺸﺒﺎك اﻟﺘﺬاﻛﺮ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻌﺒﺎرات‬
‫اﻟﺠﺒﺮﯾﺔ وﻓﻲ ﺣﻘﻞ ‪ Label‬اﻛﺘﺐ‬
‫‪Q Content‬‬
‫وﻓﻲ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﻌﺒﺎرة اﻛﺘﺐ ‪ Q$Turn‬ﺛﻢ إﺿﻐﻂ ‪ View‬و ‪ Memorize‬واﺧﯿﺮا ﻟﻨﻀﻒ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ‬
‫ﺛﺎﻟﺜﺔ ﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪة ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻋﻨﺪ ﺷﺒﺎك اﻟﺘﺬاﻛﺮ ﻓﻔﻲ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﺘﻤﯿﯿﺰ ‪ Label field‬اﻛﺘﺐ‬
‫‪ Avg Wait‬وﻓﻲ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﻌﺒﺎرة اﻛﺘﺐ ‪ QT$Turn‬إﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻲ ‪ View‬و ‪ Memorize‬ﺛﻢ‬
‫‪OK‬‬
‫ﻟﻨﺘﺨﻠﺺ اﻵن ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ وﻧﺼﻔﺮ اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﺮاﻛﻤﺔ وذﻟﻚ ﺑﺈﺧﺘﯿﺎر ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ اﻟﺮﺋﯿﺴﯿﺔ‬
‫وﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق‬ ‫‪Command / Clear‬ﺛﻢ ‪ OK‬و إﺧﺘﺎر اﻷﻣﺮ ‪Command / START‬‬
‫اﻟﺤﻮار ﺑﺪل ‪ 1‬ﺑـ ‪ 25,NP‬وﺛﻢ ‪ OK‬ﺳﻮف ﺗﺸﺎھﺪ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة وھﻲ ﺗﺠﺮي ﺣﺘﻲ ﯾﻐﺎدر اﻟﻤﺸﺠﻊ ‪25‬‬
‫ﺷﺒﺎك اﻟﺘﺬاﻛﺮ‪ .‬ﻟﻨﺮاﻗﺐ اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻤﺜﻞ ﺷﺒﺎك اﻟﺘﺬاﻛﺮ وﻟﻜﻦ اوﻻ اﻗﻔﻞ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﻌﺎﺑﯿﺮ اﻟﺠﺒﺮﯾﺔ‬
‫وﻟﻨﻨﻈﺮ إﻟﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻼت ) إذا ﻟﻢ ﺗﻜﻦ ﻣﻘﻔﻮﻟﺔ اﺻﻼ(‬
‫ﻟﻨﺒﺪأ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﺈﺟﺮاﺋﮭﺎ ‪ 25‬ﻣﺮة اﺧﺮى وﻧﻼﺣﻆ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻼت إﺧﺘﺎر‬
‫وﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار ﺑﺪل ‪ 1‬ﺑـ ‪ 25,NP‬وﻣﻦ ﺛﻢ ‪ OK‬ﻋﻨﺪ إﻧﺘﮭﺎء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة اﻗﻔﻞ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻼت‬
‫‪Facilities Window‬‬
‫‪512‬‬
‫ﻟﻨﺮى اﻵن ﻣﺎذا ﯾﺤﺪث اذا اﺧﺬ ﺷﺒﺎك اﻟﺘﺬاﻛﺮ ‪ 7±4‬ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺔ ﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ اﻟﻤﺸﺠﻊ ﺑﺪﻻ ﻣﻦ ‪ 5±3‬ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻷﻣﺮ ‪ Custom Command‬ﻟﺘﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﺑﻌﺾ اﺳﻤﺎء اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﺘﻲ ﻋﺮﻓﻨﺎھﺎ ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺎ ﻓﻲ‬
‫اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‪ .‬إﺧﺘﺮ‬
‫‪Command / Custom‬‬
‫وﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار اﻛﺘﺐ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺴﻄﺮ اﻷول ‪ In_use EQU 7‬ﺛﻢ اﺿﻐﻂ ﻣﻔﺘﺎح اﻹدﺧﺎل‬
‫ﻓﺘﻨﺘﻘﻞ اﻟﻲ اﻟﺴﻄﺮ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ واﻛﺘﺐ‬
‫‪Range EQU 4‬‬
‫ﺛﻢ اﺿﻐﻂ ‪ OK‬ﯾﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ إذا اردﻧﺎ إﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻷﻣﺮ ‪ SHOW‬ﻟﻠﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻣﻦ ان اﻟﺘﻐﯿﯿﺮات اﻟﺘﻲ ﻗﻤﻨﺎ ﺑﮭﺎ‬
‫ﻗﺪ ﺣﺼﻠﺖ ﻓﻌﻼ ﻓﻠﻨﺨﺘﺒﺮ ﻣﺜﻼ اﺣﺪ اﻟﻘﯿﻢ ﻟﻨﺮي ﻛﯿﻒ ﯾﺘﻢ ذﻟﻚ إﺧﺘﺮ ‪ Command / SHOW‬وﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار أﻛﺘﺐ ‪ Range‬ﺛﻢ ‪ OK‬ﯾﺠﺐ ان ﻧﺸﺎھﺪ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ ‪ 4‬ﻓﻲ ﺳﻄﺮ اﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ‪Status‬‬
‫‪ Line‬ﻟﻠﻨﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺮﺋﯿﺴﯿﺔ وﻓﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺠﺮﯾﺪة ‪ Journal Window‬أﯾﻀﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﻟﻨﺮى ﻣﺎذا ﺣﺪث ﻟﻠﻘﺎﻟﺐ اﻟﺠﺪﯾﺪ ‪ ADVANCE Block‬إﺧﺘﺎر ‪ Command / Clear‬ﺛﻢ‬

‫‪ OK‬اﻵن ﻟﻨﺼﻔﺮ اﻟﻌﺪدادات اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ وﻧﻌﯿﺪ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة إﻟﻰ اﻟﺸﺮوط اﻷوﻟﯿﺔ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺑﺪأﻧﺎ‪،‬‬
‫إﺧﺘﺎر ‪ Command / START‬وﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار اﻛﺘﺐ ‪ 300‬ﺑﺪﻻ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻮاﺣﺪ اﻟﺼﺤﯿﺢ‬
‫ﺛﻢ ‪ OK‬إﻧﺘﻈﺮ ﺣﺘﻰ ﺗﻨﺘﮭﻲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺛﻢ اﻓﺘﺢ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻌﺒﺎرات‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﺮي ﻛﻞ اﻟﻌﺒﺎرات اﻟﺜﻼﺛﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺘﺬﻛﺮ ‪Memorized Expressions box‬‬

‫إﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻲ ‪ Expression‬و ﻋﻠﻲ ‪ View‬ﻟﻜﻞ ﻋﺒﺎرة اﻵن إﺧﺘﺮ ‪ OK‬ﻻﺣﻆ ان أﻗﺼﻲ طﻮل‬
‫ﻟﻠﻄﺎﺑﻮر اﺻﺒﺢ اﻵن اﻋﻠﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺳﺎﺑﻘﮫ‪ ،‬اﯾﻀﺎ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر اﻋﻠﻲ وھﺬا ﯾﺒﯿﻦ ان اﻟﺘﺒﺎطﺆ ﻓﻲ‬
‫اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻗﺪ ﯾﺆدي اﻟﻲ دﺧﻮل ﺟﻤﯿﻊ اﻟﻤﺸﺠﻌﯿﻦ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻮﻗﺖ اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب وﻟﻜﻦ ھﺬا ﻗﺪ ﯾﺴﺒﺐ ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﺘﻤﻠﻞ‬
‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺸﺠﻌﯿﻦ‪.‬‬
‫ﯾﺠﺐ إﺛﺒﺎت ان اﻹﺧﺘﻼف ﺑﯿﻦ ھﺬه اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻻﯾﺮﺟﻊ اﻟﻲ اﻟﺼﺪﻓﺔ ﻛﻤﺎ ﯾﺠﺐ إﻗﺼﺎء اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﻤﺘﺄﺛﺮة‬
‫ﺑﺸﺮوط اﻟﺒﺪاﯾﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺎت اﻟﻨﮭﺎﺋﯿﺔ وذﻟﻚ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻷﻣﺮ ‪ RESET Command‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﯾﺠﺐ‬
‫ان ﻧﺨﻄﻂ ﻹﺟﺮاء ﻋﺪة ﺗﺠﺎرب واﻟﻘﯿﺎم ﺑﺘﺤﻠﯿﻞ ﺗﺒﺎﯾﻦ ‪ ANOVA‬ﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫زﻣﻨﻲ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ اﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻟﺸﺒﺎك اﻟﺘﺬاﻛﺮ‪.‬‬
‫‪513‬‬
‫ ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻧﻈﺎم ھﺎﺗﻒ ﺑﺴﯿﻂ‬-2
‫ اﻟﻤﻜﺎﻟﻤﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺄﺗﻲ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺨﺎرج ﺗﺼﻞ ﻛﻞ‬.‫ﻧﻈﺎم ھﺎﺗﻒ ﺑﺴﯿﻂ ﯾﺘﻜﻮن ﻣﻦ ﺧﻄﯿﻦ ﺧﺎرﺟﯿﯿﻦ‬
‫ ﺗﺴﺘﻐﺮق‬.‫ دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‬5±1 ‫ إذا ﻛﺎن اﻟﺨﻂ ﻣﺸﻐﻮﻻ ﻓﺈن اﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﯾﻌﯿﺪ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺑﻌﺪ ﻣﺮور‬.‫ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺔ‬100±60
‫ اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﺟﺪوﻟﺔ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ اﻟﻼزم اﻟﺬي ﯾﺴﺘﻐﺮﻗﺔ اﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﻹﻛﻤﺎل ﻣﻜﺎﻟﻤﺔ‬.‫ دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‬3±1 ‫اﻟﻤﻜﺎﻟﻤﺔ‬
‫ ﻣﻜﺎﻟﻤﺔ؟‬200 ‫ ﻛﻢ طﻮل اﻟﻮﻗﺖ اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﻹﻛﻤﺎل‬.‫ﻧﺎﺟﺤﺔ‬
:‫ﻋﺮض اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ‬
; GPSS World Sample File - TELEPHON.GPS, by Gerard F. Cummings

**************************************************************
* *
* *
* Telephone System Model *
* *
**************************************************************
* Simple Telephone Simulation *
* Time Unit is one minute *
Sets STORAGE 2
Transit TABLE M1,.5,1,20 ;Transit times
GENERATE 1.667,1 ;Calls arrive
Again GATE SNF Sets,Occupied ;Try for a line
ENTER Sets ;Connect call
ADVANCE 3,1 ;Speak for 3+/-1 min
LEAVE Sets ;Free a line
TABULATE Transit ;Tabulate transit time
TERMINATE 1 ;Remove a transaction
Occupied ADVANCE 5,1 ;Wait 5 minutes
TRANSFER ,Again ;Try again
**************************************************************
514
‫وﺻﻒ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ‪:‬‬
‫‪STORAGE‬‬
‫ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻛﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻟﻤﺨﺰن ‪ Storage Entity Sets‬وﺑﺴﻌﺔ ﻛﻠﯿﺔ ‪ 2‬وﺿﻌﺖ ﻟﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﺧﻄﯿﻦ ﻟﻠﺘﻠﻔﻮن‬
‫اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻲ‪.‬‬
‫‪TABLE‬‬
‫اﻟﺠﺪول اﻹﻧﺘﻘﺎﻟﻲ ‪ Table Transit‬ﻋﺮف ﺑﺤﯿﺚ ﯾﻌﻄﻲ ﻣﻀﻠﻊ ﺗﻜﺮاري ﻟﺰﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻜﺎﻟﻤﺎت واﻟﺬي‬
‫ﯾﻌﺮض ﺗﻔﺎﻋﻠﯿﺎ ﻋﻠﻲ اﻟﺸﺎﺷﺔ‪ .‬ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮة ﻗﺒﻞ إﻧﮭﺎء اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻓﺈن اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻌﺪدﯾﺔ ‪ SNA‬ﻟـ " اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﻓﻲ‬
‫اﻟﻨﻈﺎم " ‪ M1‬ﺗﺠﺪول وھﻲ ﺗﻤﺜﻞ اﻟﻮﻗﺖ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻐﺮق ﻟﻠﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﻣﻦ ﺑﺪﺋﮫ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ وﺣﺘﻲ إﻧﺘﮭﺎﺋﮫ ﻣﻦ‬
‫اﻟﺘﺤﺪث‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﯾﻤﺜﻞ ﻣﻜﺎﻟﻤﺔ ﯾﻮﻟﺪ ﻛﻞ ‪ 100±60‬ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪GATE‬‬
‫ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ GATE Block‬ﯾﺮﺳﻞ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻲ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪) Occupied‬ﻣﺸﻐﻮل( ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﻜﻮن ﺟﻤﯿﻊ‬
‫اﻟﺨﻄﻮط ﻣﺸﻐﻮﻟﺔ وھﺬا ﯾﺤﺪث ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﻜﻮن ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻛﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻟﻤﺨﺰن ﻣﻤﺘﻠﺌﺔ وھﻲ ﺗﻤﺜﻞ طﺎﻟﺐ‬
‫ﯾﺠﺐ ﻋﻠﯿﮫ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻗﺒﻞ إﻋﺎدة اﻟﻄﻠﺐ‪.‬‬
‫‪ENTER‬‬
‫إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ‪ 0‬او ‪ 1‬ﻣﻦ وﺣﺪات اﻟﻤﺨﺰن ﻓﻲ اﻹﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻓﺈن اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﯾﻤﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ‪GATE‬‬
‫‪ Block‬وإﻟﻲ ‪ ENTER Block‬وﺑﮭﺬا ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم وﺣﺪة ﺗﺨﺰﯾﻦ اﺧﺮى اﻣﺎ إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﺟﻤﯿﻊ وﺣﺪات‬
‫اﻟﺘﺨﺰﯾﻦ ﻣﺸﻐﻮﻟﺔ ﻓﻠﻦ ﯾﺴﻤﺢ ﺑﻤﺮور اي ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ‪ GATE Block‬وﺑﮭﺬا ﻓﺈن ﻣﺮور اي‬
‫ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ‪ ENTER Block‬ﯾﻤﺜﻞ ﻣﻜﺎﻟﻤﺔ ﺗﻢ اﯾﺼﺎﻟﮭﺎ ﺑﻨﺠﺎح‪.‬‬
‫‪ADVANCE‬‬
‫‪515‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺮوره ﻓﺈن اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ) اﻟﻤﻜﺎﻟﻤﺔ( ﺗﺪﺧﻞ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ ADVANCE Block‬واﻟﺬي ﯾﻤﺜﻞ‬
‫ﻣﻜﺎﻟﻤﺔ ﺗﺴﺘﻐﺮق ‪ 180±60‬ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺔ وﯾﺴﺘﻘﺮ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ﺣﺘﻲ ﯾﻤﺮ زﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪.‬‬
‫‪LEAVE‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪ دﺧﻮل ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ LEAVE Block‬ﻓﺈن ھﺬا ﯾﺠﻌﻞ اﺣﺪ وﺣﺪات ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ اﻟﺘﺨﺰﯾﻦ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻮﻓﺮة ﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ آﺧﺮ أي اﻧﺔ ﯾﻤﺜﻞ ﺗﻮﻓﺮ ﺧﻂ ﺧﺎرﺟﻲ ﺟﺪﯾﺪ‪.‬‬
‫ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ TABULATE Block‬ﯾﻀﯿﻒ طﻮل ﻣﻜﺎﻟﻤﺔ اﻟﻲ اﻟﻤﻀﻠﻊ اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري ﻷزﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﻤﻜﺎﻟﻤﺎت‬
‫اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ ‪Table Transit‬‬
‫ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ TERMINATE Block‬ﯾﺰﯾﻞ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ) ﻣﻜﺎﻟﻤﺔ( ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﻌﺪ إﻛﻤﺎل اﻟﻄﻠﺐ‪.‬‬
‫‪ADVANCE‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﺬي ﯾﺄﺗﻲ اﻟﻲ ‪ ADVANCE Block‬واﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻼﻣﺔ ‪ Occupied‬ﯾﻜﻮن ﻗﺪ ﺣﺎول‬

‫وﻓﺸﻞ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺤﺼﻮل ﻋﻠﻲ وﺣﺪة ﺗﺨﺰﯾﻦ ) ﺧﻂ ﺧﺎرﺟﻲ ( ﻣﻦ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻛﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻟﻤﺨﺰن ‪Storage‬‬
‫‪ Entity Sets‬وھﻲ ﺗﻤﺜﻞ زﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر اﻟﺬي ﯾﺠﺐ ﻗﻀﺎﺋﺔ ﻗﺒﻞ ان ﯾﺤﺎول اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻣﺮة اﺧﺮى‪.‬‬
‫‪ GATE Block‬اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻼﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ TRANSFER Block‬ﯾﺮﺳﻞ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻲ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ‬

‫‪ Again‬ﺣﯿﺚ ھﻨﺎك ﯾﺤﺎول اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺤﺼﻮل ﻋﻠﻲ وﺣﺪة ﺗﺨﺰﯾﻦ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﻛﺎﺋﻨﺎت‬
‫اﻟﻤﺨﺰن ﺑﻤﻌﻨﻲ آﺧﺮ ان اﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﯾﻌﯿﺪ طﻠﺐ اﻟﻤﻜﺎﻟﻤﺔ‪ .‬ھﺆﻻء اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ ﯾﻤﺜﻠﻮا اﻟﻤﻜﺎﻟﻤﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺑﺪأت‬
‫وﻟﻢ ﺗﺘﻢ‪ .‬إذا وﺟﺪ طﺎﻟﺐ ﺟﺪﯾﺪ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺨﻄﯿﻦ ﻣﺸﻐﻮل ﻓﺈن ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ GATE Block‬واﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ‬
‫‪ Again‬ﯾﺮﺳﻠﮫ ﻟﻺﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻓﻲ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ ADVANCE Block‬اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻼﻣﺔ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻼﻣﺔ‬
‫‪ Occupied‬ﻟﻤﺪة ‪ 5‬دﻗﺎﺋﻖ ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺒﺎ ﺑﻌﺪ ھﺬا اﻟﺘﺄﺧﯿﺮ ﻓﺈن اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﯾﻘﻔﺬ ﻋﺎﺋﺪا ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪GATE‬‬
‫‪ Block‬ﻟﻠﻤﺤﺎوﻟﺔ ﻣﺮة اﺧﺮى اﻟﻄﻠﺒﺎت اﻟﻨﺎﺟﺤﺔ ﺗﻤﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ GATE Block‬وﯾﺤﺪث ﻟﮭﺎ ﺗﺄﺧﯿﺮ‬
‫ﯾﻤﺜﻞ اﻟﻤﻜﺎﻟﻤﺔ ﺛﻢ ﺗﻐﺎدر اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪ .‬ﻵﺣﻆ ان ﻋﺪد ﺧﻄﻮط اﻟﮭﺎﺗﻒ ﻧﻤﺬﺟﺖ ﻛﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت ﻣﺨﺰن ﺑﺴﻌﺔ ‪2‬‬
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‫ﻻﺣﻘﺎ ﺳﯿﻜﻮن ﻣﻦ اﻟﺴﮭﻞ إﺟﺮاء ﺗﺠﺎرب ﻋﻠﻲ اﻷﺛﺮ اﻟﺬي ﯾﺴﺒﺒﮫ إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺧﻄﻮط اﺧﺮى‪ .‬إذا ﻟﻢ ﺗﺘﻤﻜﻦ‬
‫ﻣﻜﺎﻟﻤﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺮور ﻓﺈن اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ اﻟﻌﺎﺋﺪﯾﻦ اﻟﯿﮭﺎ ﯾﻨﺘﻈﺮوا ﻟﻤﺪة ‪ 5‬دﻗﺎﺋﻖ ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻓﻲ اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ‬
‫‪ ADVANCE Block‬اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻼﻣﺔ ‪ Occupied‬وﻋﺪد اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ ھﻨﺎ ﯾﻤﺜﻞ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻤﻜﺎﻟﻤﺎت‬
‫اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻨﺘﻈﺮ إﻋﺎدﺗﮭﺎ‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﻌﺒﺎرة ‪ TABLE statement‬ﺳﻮف ﺗﻨﺘﺞ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻣﻔﺼﻠﺔ ﻋﻦ طﻮل اﻟﻤﻜﺎﻟﻤﺎت اﻟﻤﺤﺎوﻟﺔ‬

‫وھﻜﺬا ﺑﺠﺪوﻟﺔ ‪ M1 SNA‬ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮة ﻗﺒﻞ إﻧﮭﺎء اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ ﻓﺈﻧﻨﺎ ﺳﻨﺘﻤﻜﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺑﻨﺎء ﻣﻀﻠﻊ ﺗﻜﺮاري‬
‫ﻟﻜﯿﻔﯿﺔ طﻮل اﻟﻮﻗﺖ اﻟﺬي ﯾﺴﺘﻐﺮﻗﺔ طﺎﻟﺐ ﻹﻛﻤﺎل ﻣﻜﺎﻟﻤﺎﺗﮭﻢ‪.‬‬
‫ﻹﺟﺮاء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة وﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺮ ﻣﻌﯿﺎري إﺧﺘﺎر ‪ File / Open‬وﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار اﺧﺘﺎر‬
‫‪TELEPHON‬ﺛﻢ اﺧﺘﺎر ‪ Open‬وﺑﻌﺪ ھﺬا ﯾﺠﺐ ﺧﻠﻖ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﺈﺧﺘﯿﺎر ‪Command /‬‬
‫‪Create Simulation‬‬
‫ﺛﻢ إﺧﺘﯿﺎر ‪ Command / START‬وﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار اﺳﺘﺒﺪل ‪ 1‬ﺑـ ‪ 200‬ﺛﻢ اﺿﻐﻂ‬
‫‪OK‬ﺳﺘﻨﺘﮭﻲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﻌﺪ ﻣﺮور ‪ 200‬ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺑﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪ TERMINATE Block‬وھﺬا ﯾﻤﺜﻞ‬
‫إﻛﻤﺎل ‪ 200‬ﻣﻜﺎﻟﻤﺔ‪ .‬ﻋﻨﺪ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺳﻮف ﯾﻘﻮم ‪ GPSS‬ﺑﻜﺘﺎﺑﺔ ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺮ ﻟﻤﻠﻒ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ اﻟﺘﻘﻠﯿﺪي‬
‫‪ Telephon.1.1‬واﻟﺬي ﯾﻈﮭﺮ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ذاﺗﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ‪ End Time‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ اﻟﻤﻌﯿﺎري ﻧﺮي ان ‪ 359.16‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ ﻣﺮت ﻹﻧﮭﺎء اﻟﻤﻜﺎﻟﻤﺔ رﻗﻢ‬
‫‪200‬طﺒﻌﺎ إﻋﺎدة اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻣﺮات اﺧﺮي ﺳﯿﻌﻄﻲ ﻗﯿﻢ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ وﻟﻜﻦ ﻗﺮﯾﺒﺔ ﻣﻦ ھﺬة اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ وذﻟﻚ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ اﻟﺠﺪول ‪ Table‬اﻟﻤﺴﻤﻲ ‪ Transit‬ﯾﻌﻄﻲ ﻣﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻣﻔﺼﻠﺔ ﻋﻦ ﻛﻢ طﻮل اﻟﻔﺘﺮة‬
‫اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺄﺧﺬھﺎ اﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﻹﻛﻤﺎل ﻣﻜﺎﻟﻤﺘﮫ‪ .‬ﺑﺮﻏﻢ ان ﻣﻌﻈﻢ اﻟﻤﻜﺎﻟﻤﺎت اﺳﺘﻐﺮﻗﺖ اﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪ 9.5‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ اﻟﻰ‬
‫ان ھﻨﺎك ﻣﻜﺎﻟﻤﺎت اﺳﺘﻐﺮﻗﺖ اوﻗﺎت اﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ھﺬه ﺑﻜﺜﯿﺮ واﻟﺘﻲ ﻗﺪ ﺗﺴﺒﺐ ﻋﺪم رﺿﺎء اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‪.‬‬
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‫ﻟﻨﺘﻘﺼﻰ اﻵن ﺷﺮط ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪ the ending condition of the simulation‬واﻟﺬي وﻟﺪ‬
‫اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ اﻟﺘﻘﻠﯿﺪي اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‪ ،‬اﻗﻔﻞ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ ودﻋﻨﺎ ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻌﺒﺎرات اﻟﺠﺒﺮﯾﺔ ‪Expressions‬‬
‫‪ Window‬ﻟﻨﻨﻈﺮ اﻟﻲ ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﺼﻔﺎت اﻟﻌﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم ‪ System Numeric Attributes‬اوﻻ‬
‫ﺗﺄﻛﺪ ﻣﻦ زﻣﻦ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪ ،‬إﺧﺘﺎر‬
‫ﺗﻔﺘﺢ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺗﺤﺮﯾﺮ اﻟﻌﺒﺎرات ‪ Edit Expressions Window‬ﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار وﻓﻲ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ‬
‫‪ Label field‬اﻛﺘﺐ ‪ Time‬وﻓﻲ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ ‪ Expression field‬اﻛﺘﺐ ‪ AC1‬ھﺬا ﯾﺪﻋﻨﺎ ﻧﻨﻈﺮ اﻟﻲ‬
‫اﻟﺰﻣﻦ اﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ‪ ،‬اﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻲ ‪ View‬و ﻋﻠﻲ ‪ Memorize‬اﻵن ﻟﻨﻨﻈﺮ إﻟﻲ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ ‪utilization‬‬
‫ﺧﻄﻮط اﻟﮭﺎﺗﻒ )ﻛﺄﺟﺰاء ﻣﻦ أﻟﻒ( ﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار وﻓﻲ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ ‪ Label field‬ﺑﺪل اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ‬
‫اﺳﺘﺒﺪل اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﺑـ‬ ‫اﻟﺤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﺑـ ‪ Util‬وﻓﻲ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﻌﺒﺎرات ‪Expression field‬‬
‫‪SR$Sets‬واﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻲ ‪ View‬وﻋﻠﻲ ‪ Memorize‬واﺧﯿﺮا دﻋﻨﺎ ﻧﻀﯿﻒ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ اﻟﺬي‬
‫ﯾﺸﻐﻞ ﻓﯿﺔ ﺧﻂ اﻟﮭﺎﺗﻒ‪ ،‬ﻓﻔﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار وﻓﻲ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ ‪ Label field‬اﺳﺘﺒﺪل اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﺑـ‬
‫‪ Avg. Call Time‬وﻓﻲ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﺘﻌﺎﺑﯿﺮ ‪ Expression field‬اﺳﺘﺒﺪل اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺤﻠﯿﺔ ﺑـ‬
‫ﺛﻢ اﺿﻐﻂ ‪ OK‬اﻟﻔﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ ھﻨﺎ ﯾﻌﺒﺮ ﻋﻨﮭﺎ‬ ‫‪ST$Sets‬واﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻲ ‪ View‬وﻋﻠﻲ ‪Memorize‬‬
‫ﻛﺠﺰء ﻣﻦ اﻟﻒ وﻧﺮي ان اﻟﺨﻄﻮط ﻟﮭﺎ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ ‪ 83%‬وھﻜﺬا ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻏﻢ ﻣﻦ وﺟﻮد ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ اﻟﻐﯿﺮ‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻓﺈن اﻟﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ﯾﻌﺘﺒﺮ ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﻘﺒﻮل‪ .‬ﻟﻨﻐﻠﻖ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﻌﺎﺑﯿﺮ‪.‬‬
‫ﻟﻨﻔﺘﺢ ﺑﻌﺾ ﻧﻮاﻓﺬ اﻟﺮﺳﻮﻣﺎت‪ ،‬إﺧﺘﺎر‬
‫‪Window / Simulation Window / Storages Window‬‬
‫ھﺬا ﯾﻌﻄﻲ ﻣﻨﻈﺮ ﻣﻔﺼﻞ ﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﺨﺰﯾﻦ ‪ Storages Window Detail View‬ﻻﺣﻆ اﻧﻨﺎ ﻧﺮي‬
‫ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﺨﻄﻮط ھﻨﺎ اﯾﻀﺎ ‪ . 83%‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻼﻣﺎت اﻟﺴﻔﻠﻰ واﻟﻌﻠﯿﺎ )‪(Min and Max values‬‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﺨﺰن اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻧﺮي ان ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻛﺎن ھﻨﺎك اوﻗﺎت ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻓﯿﮭﺎ‪ 0‬و ‪ 1‬او ‪ 2‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﺨﻄﻮط‬
‫ﻣﺸﻐﻮﻟﺔ‪ ،‬إﺳﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﻌﻤﻮد اﻟﻤﻨﺰﻟﻖ ﻓﻲ اﺳﻔﻞ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة ﻟﺘﺸﺎھﺪ اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻨﺎﻗﺶ‪ .‬إذا ﻓﺘﺤﻨﺎ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺠﺪول‬
‫‪ Table Window‬ﻓﺴﻨﺮى اﻟﻤﺪرج اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري ﻷزﻣﻨﺔ ﺗﻜﻤﻠﺔ اﻟﻤﻜﺎﻟﻤﺎت‪ ،‬إﺧﺘﺎر‬
‫‪Window / Simulation Window / Table Window‬‬
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‫وﺣﯿﺚ اﻧﮫ ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﺟﺪول واﺣﺪ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻓﻲ ھﺬه اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻓﺈﻧﻨﺎ ﺳﻨﺮي اﻟﻜﻠﻤﺔ ‪ Transit‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﺼﻨﺪوق‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﺪﻟﻰ‪ ،‬إﺧﺘﺎر ‪ OK‬ﺗﺄﻛﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻜﺒﯿﺮ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة ﺣﺘﻲ ﺗﺮي اﻟﺠﺪول ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ‪ ،‬ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻜﺎﻟﻤﺎت ھﻮ ‪ 2.99‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ ﻛﻤﺎ ھﻮ ﻣﺒﯿﻦ ﺑـ ‪ ST SNA‬ﻓﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﻌﺎﺑﯿﺮ ‪Expressions‬‬
‫‪Window‬وﻟﻜﻦ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﺷﺎﻣﻼ إﻋﺎدة اﻟﻤﻜﺎﻟﻤﺔ ھﻮ ‪ 14.27‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻧﺸﺎھﺪ ﻓﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة‬
‫اﻟﺠﺪول ‪ Table Window‬أي ان اﻟﻄﺎﻟﺒﯿﻦ ﯾﻘﻀﻮا زﻣﻦ طﻮﯾﻞ ﺟﺪا ﻹﻋﺎدة طﻠﺐ اﻟﻤﻜﺎﻟﻤﺔ إذا ﻣﺎ‬
‫ﺻﺪف وﻛﺎﻧﺖ اﻟﺨﻄﻮط ﻣﺸﻐﻮﻟﺔ وھﺬا ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﻘﺒﻮل‪.‬‬
‫ﻟﻨﻨﻈﺮ اﻵن اي ھﻢ اﻟﻤﺘﻔﺎﻋﻠﯿﻦ ‪ ، Transactions‬إﺧﺘﺎر‬
‫‪Window / Simulation Window / Blocks Window‬‬
‫ھﺬه ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ ‪ Blocks Window‬ﻻﺣﻆ اﻧﮫ ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ‪ 15‬زﺑﻮن ﯾﻨﺘﻈﺮوا إﻋﺎدة طﻠﺐ‬
‫ﻣﻜﺎﻟﻤﺎﺗﮭﻢ‪ ،‬اﻧﻈﺮ ﻟﺘﺎرﯾﺦ دﺧﻮل اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻣﻮد ﻋﺪد اﻟﺪﺧﻮل ‪Entry Count‬‬
‫‪Figure 2—1. Blocks Window Detailed View Showing TRANSFER Block.‬‬
‫ﻣﺎ اﻟﺬي ﯾﺤﺪث ھﻨﺎ؟ اﻧﻈﺮ اﻟﻲ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ ‪ Transaction‬اﻟﺬﯾﻦ دﺧﻠﻮا ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ADVANCE‬‬
‫‪ Block‬اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ) ﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر إﻋﺎدة اﻟﻤﻜﺎﻟﻤﺎت( !‪ 561‬وﻟﻜﻦ اﺟﺮﯾﺖ ﻓﻘﻂ ‪ 200‬ﻣﻜﺎﻟﻤﺔ‪ .‬ﻟﻨﻼﺣﻆ‬
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‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ ‪ Blocks Window‬وﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻣﻔﺎﺗﯿﺢ ‪ Ctrl+Alt+1‬ﺳﻮف ﻧﺠﺮي اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‬
‫ﺧﻄﻮة ﺧﻄﻮة ﯾﺪوﯾﺎ‪ ،‬إﻓﻌﻞ ذﻟﻚ ‪ 15‬او ‪ 20‬ﻣﺮة‪ ،‬ھﻞ ﺷﺎھﺪت ﻣﺎﻟﺬي ﯾﺤﺪث؟ ﻋﺪة طﺎﻟﺒﯿﻦ‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﻜﺎﻟﻤﺎت واﻟﺬﯾﻦ ﯾﻌﯿﺪون اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﯾﺠﺪوا اﻟﺨﻄﻮط ﻣﺸﻐﻮﻟﺔ وﻋﻠﯿﮭﻢ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر و إﻋﺎدة اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﺪة‬
‫ﻣﺮات‪ .‬ﺳﻮف ﻧﻘﻮم ﺑﺈﻋﺎدة إﺟﺮاء وﻣﺸﺎھﺪﺗﮭﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﻋﺪة ﻧﻮاﻓﺬ رﺳﻮﻣﯿﺔ‪ .‬ﻟﻨﺒﺪأ ﺑﻘﻔﻞ ﺟﻤﯿﻊ اﻟﻨﻮاﻓﺬ‬
‫ﻣﺎﻋﺪى ﻧﻮاﻓﺬ ‪ Blocks‬و ‪ Journal‬و ‪Model‬‬
‫ﻟﻨﻌﯿﺪ ﻓﺘﺢ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻌﺒﺎرات اﻟﺠﺒﺮﯾﺔ ‪ Expressions Window‬وﺑﺎﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺣﻔﻈﻨﺎھﺎ ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺎ ﻣﻊ‬
‫‪Active‬‬ ‫‪ call number‬واﻟﺬي ھﻮ اﯾﻀﺎ رﻗﻢ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻨﺸﻂ‬ ‫إﺿﺎﻓﺔ رﻗﻢ اﻟﻤﻜﺎﻟﻤﺔ‬
‫‪ ، Transaction number‬إﺧﺘﺎر‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق ﺣﻮار ﺗﺤﺮﯾﺮ اﻟﻌﺒﺎرات وﻓﻲ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ ‪ Label field‬اﻛﺘﺐ ‪ Call no‬وﻓﻲ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺘﻌﺎﺑﯿﺮ ‪ Expression field‬اﻛﺘﺐ ‪ XN1‬اﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻲ ‪ View‬وﻋﻠﻲ ‪ Memorize‬وﻗﺒﻞ‬
‫إﻗﻔﺎل اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة ﺳﻨﺴﺘﺮﺟﻊ اﻟﻌﺒﺎرات اﻟﻤﺤﻔﻮظﺔ ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺎ واﻟﺘﻲ ﺣﻔﻈﻨﺎھﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة اﻻوﻟﻰ ﻟﮭﺬا ﻓﻠﻜﻞ‬
‫ﻋﺒﺎرة ﻣﺤﻔﻮظﺔ إﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻲ ‪ Expression‬ﺛﻢ ﻋﻠﻲ ‪ View‬أﺧﯿﺮا وﺑﻌﺪ ظﮭﻮر ﻛﻞ اﻟﺘﻌﺎﺑﯿﺮ‬
‫اﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻲ ‪ OK‬ﻟﻨﺘﺨﻠﺺ ﻣﻦ ﻛﻞ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ ‪ Transactions‬وﻧﺼﻔﺮاﻟﻌﺪادات اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻓﻤﻦ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺮﺋﯿﺴﯿﺔ ‪ Main Menu‬إﺧﺘﺎر‬
‫‪Command / Clear‬‬
‫وﻓﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ ‪ Blocks Window‬ﺣﺮك ﻣﺆﺷﺮ اﻟﻔﺎرة ﻓﻮق اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ اﻷﺧﯿﺮ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‬
‫واﻟﺬي ھﻮ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ TRANSFER‬إﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻲ ‪ The TRANSFER Block‬وﻋﻠﻲ ‪The‬‬
‫‪ Place Icon in the Debug Toolbar‬ﺛﻢ ﺣﺮك اﻟﻨﻮاﻓﺬ اﻟﺜﻼﺛﺔ ‪ Blocks‬و ‪ Journal‬و‬
‫‪ Expressions‬ﺑﺤﯿﺚ ﯾﻤﻜﻨﻚ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪﺗﮭﺎ ﺑﻮﺿﻮح‪ ،‬إﺧﺘﺮ‬
‫وﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار ﺑﺪل اﻟﻮاﺣﺪ اﻟﺼﺤﯿﺢ ﺑـ ‪ 1000,NP‬وإﺿﻐﻂ ‪ OK‬اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺳﺘﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﻋﻨﺪ‬
‫اول ﻣﺤﺎوﻟﺔ ﻟﺪﺧﻮل اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ وھﺬا ﯾﺒﯿﻦ ان اﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﻟﻢ ﯾﺠﺪ ﺧﻄﺎ ﺷﺎﻏﺮا‪ .‬أﻛﻤﻞ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪Continue‬‬
‫وذﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻲ ‪ Ctrl+Alt+C‬ﻛﺮر ھﺬه اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺔ ﻋﺪة ﻣﺮات ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺮة ﺗﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﻓﯿﮭﺎ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‬
‫ﺗﺤﺖ ﺷﺮط اﻟﺘﻮﻗﻒ ‪ Stop Condition‬اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺳﻮف ﺗﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﻮﻗﻒ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺎ ﻛﺎن ﻋﻠﻲ طﺎﻟﺐ‬
‫‪520‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﻜﺎﻟﻤﺔ ان ﯾﻨﺘﻈﺮ وﺳﻮف ﺗﺸﺎھﺪ رﺳﺎﺋﻞ اﻟﺘﺘﺒﻊ ‪ trace messages‬ﻓﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺠﺮﯾﺪة ‪Journal‬‬
‫‪ Window‬واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺒﯿﻦ رﻗﻢ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ‪ Transaction number‬ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻒ ‪Stopped‬‬
‫‪ ، Transaction‬ﺣﯿﺚ اﻧﮫ ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ‪ GENERATE Block‬واﺣﺪ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‬
‫ﻓﯿﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ان ﻧﺮي ﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ رﻗﻢ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻛﻢ ﻣﺮة ﻋﻠﻲ اﻟﻤﻜﺎﻟﻤﺔ ان ﺗﺘﻮﻗﻒ وﻓﯿﻤﺎ إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ھﻨﺎك‬
‫ﻣﻜﺎﻟﻤﺎت ﻣﺘﻮﻗﻔﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺮة اﻟﺜﺎﻧﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪The‬‬ ‫دﻋﻨﺎ اﻵن ﻧﺰﯾﻞ ﺷﺮط اﻟﺘﻮﻗﯿﻒ ﻓﻔﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ ‪ Blocks Window‬إﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻲ‬
‫‪ Transfer Block‬وﻋﻠﻲ ‪ The Remove Icon in the Debug Toolbar‬ﺛﻢ اﻗﻔﻞ ﻧﻮاﻓﺬ‬
‫‪Blocks‬و ‪Expressions‬‬
‫اﺳﺘﻤﺮ ﻓﻲ إﺟﺮاء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة وذﻟﻚ ﺑﺎﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻲ ‪. Ctrl+Alt+C‬‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﺮاﻗﺐ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة وھﻲ ﺗﺠﺮي وذﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ‪Storages Window Non-‬‬
‫‪ Detailed View‬إﺧﺘﺮ‬
‫وﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺮﺋﯿﺴﯿﺔ ‪ Main Menu‬إﺧﺘﺮ‬
‫‪Edit / Entity Details‬‬
‫ﻟﺘﻔﻌﯿﻞ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ‪Non-Detailed View‬‬
‫ﻟﻨﺸﺎھﺪ اﻵن اﻟﻤﺪرج اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري ﻟﻠﻤﻜﺎﻟﻤﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﺄﺧﺮة وھﻮ ﯾﺒﻨﻰ ‪ ،‬إﺧﺘﺎر‬
‫وﺣﯿﺚ اﻧﮫ ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﺟﺪول واﺣﺪ ﻓﻘﻂ وإﺳﻤﮫ ﻣﻮﺟﻮد ﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار اﻟﻈﺎھﺮ ﻟﺬﻟﻚ اﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻲ‬
‫‪OK‬‬
‫اﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﻤﺴﻤﻰ ‪ Transit‬ﻣﺎھﻮ إﻻ ﻣﺪرج ﺗﻜﺮاري دﯾﻨﺎﻣﯿﻜﻲ وﯾﻤﻜﻦ اﻟﻨﻈﺮ اﻟﯿﮫ اي وﻗﺖ ﺷﺌﻨﺎ‪،‬‬
‫ﯾﺘﻀﺢ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺠﺪول ان ﻋﺪﯾﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﻻﯾﺘﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻲ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻣﺒﺎﺷﺮة وطﺒﻌﺎ ھﺬا ﯾﺴﺒﺐ ﻟﮭﻢ‬
‫اﻟﻜﺜﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺰﻋﺎج‪.‬‬
‫‪521‬‬
‫ﻣﺎذا ﻟﻮ اﺿﻔﻨﺎ ﺧﻄﻮط اﻛﺜﺮ؟ ﻟﻨﺤﺎﻛﻲ ‪ 4‬ﺧﻄﻮط ﺑﺪﻻ ﻣﻦ إﺛﻨﺎن‪ .‬إﺟﻌﻞ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﺨﺰﯾﻦ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﺔ ﺑﺎﺿﻐﻂ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻲ ‪ The Storages Window‬ﺛﻢ اﺧﺘﺎر ‪ Command / Clear‬ﺛﻢ ‪ OK‬ﺛﻢ اﺧﺘﺎر‬
‫‪ Command /Custom‬وﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار اﻛﺘﺐ‬
‫‪ Sets Storage 4‬ﺛﻢ ‪OK‬‬
‫ھﺬا ﺳﯿﻌﺪل ﻋﺪد ﺧﻄﻮط اﻟﮭﺎﺗﻒ‪ .‬ﻟﻨﺮى ﻣﺎذا ﺳﯿﺤﺪث‪ ،‬اﺧﺘﺎر ‪ Command / START‬وﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار اﺳﺘﺒﺪل اﻟﻮاﺣﺪ اﻟﺼﺤﯿﺢ ﺑـ ‪ 1000‬ﺛﻢ إﺿﻐﻂ ‪OK‬‬
‫ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﺧﻄﻮط اﻟﮭﺎﺗﻒ اﻗﻞ ﺑﻜﺜﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻟﻨﻈﺮ اﻟﻲ اﻟﻤﺪرج اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري ﻟﻄﻮل اﻟﻤﻜﺎﻟﻤﺔ ﻧﺠﺪ اﻧﮫ‬
‫اﻓﻀﻞ ﺑﻜﺜﯿﺮ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﻮاﻗﻊ ﻟﻮ ﻧﻈﺮﻧﺎ اﻟﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ ﻓﻲ ﺷﻜﻠﮭﺎ اﻟﻤﻔﺼﻞ ﺳﻨﺸﺎھﺪ ان ﻗﺎﻟﺐ‬
‫‪ TRANSFER Block‬ﻟﻢ ﯾﺮﺗﺎد وذﻟﻚ ﻷن اي ﻣﻦ اﻟﻄﺎﻟﺒﯿﻦ ﻟﻢ ﯾﺤﺘﺎج إﻋﺎدة اﻟﻄﻠﺐ‪ .‬وﯾﺒﺪو ان‬
‫ارﺑﻌﺔ ﺧﻄﻮط ازاﻟﺖ ﻛﻞ اﻟﻤﺸﺎﻛﻞ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﺔ ﯾﺠﺐ ﺑﺮھﻨﺔ ھﺬا ﺑﻄﺮﯾﻘﺔ إﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ وذﻟﻚ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻷﻣﺮ ‪ANOVA Command‬‬
‫ﺗﻤﺮﯾﻦ‪ :‬ﺟﺮب ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ﺧﻄﻮط ھﺎﺗﻒ وﻗﺎرن اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‪.‬‬
‫‪522‬‬
‫ ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻧﻈﺎم ﺗﺨﺰﯾﻦ ﺑﻤﺮاﺟﻌﺔ دورﯾﺔ‬-3
.‫ وﺣﺪة‬1000 ‫ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻹﺑﺘﺪاﺋﻲ ﯾﺘﻜﻮن ﻣﻦ‬.‫ﻣﺨﺰون ﻣﻨﺘﺞ ﻧﮭﺎﺋﻲ ﯾﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﺑﮫ ﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ ﻣﺮاﺟﻌﺔ دورﯾﺔ اﺳﺒﻮﻋﯿﺎ‬
‫ اي ان ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻞ‬،‫ وﺣﺪة‬1000 ‫ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﻤﺴﺘﮭﺪف ھﻮ‬.‫ وﺣﺪة وﺑﺈﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﻣﺘﺴﺎوي‬63 ‫ و‬40 ‫اﻟﻄﻠﺐ اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ ﯾﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ‬
‫ وﺣﺪة او‬800 ‫ ﻓﺈذا ﻛﺎن اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮد ھﻮ‬.‫ وﺣﺪة‬1000 ‫اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ﯾﺘﻢ ﺑﻄﻠﺐ اﻟﻔﺮق ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮد و‬
‫ ﻟﺘﻮﺻﯿﻞ‬lead time ‫ زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻘﺪم‬.‫ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﺑﻨﻈﺎم ﺧﻤﺴﺔ اﯾﺎم ﻟﻺﺳﺒﻮع‬.‫اﻛﺜﺮ ﻓﻠﻦ ﯾﻌﺪل اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ﻟﺬﻟﻚ اﻻﺳﺒﻮع‬
‫ ﯾﻮم وﺗﺤﻖ ﻓﯿﻤﺎ إذا ﻛﺎن ھﻨﺎك اي ﻧﻘﺺ ﻟﻠﻤﺨﺰون‬200 ‫ ﺣﺎﻛﻲ ﻧﻈﺎم اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ﻟﻤﺪة‬.‫اﻟﻄﻠﺒﯿﺔ ھﻮ اﺳﺒﻮع واﺣﺪ‬
stockouts
; GPSS World Sample File - PERIODIC.GPS, by Gerard F. Cummings

*******************************************************************
*
* Periodic Review Inventory Model
*
* Time units are in days
*
*********************************************************************
* Definitions of non block entities
RMULT 39941
Stock STORAGE 10000 ;Warehouse can hold 10000
Stock TABLE S$Stock,100,100,20 ;Table for inventory amts
Orderqty VARIABLE Target-S$Stock ;Order quantity
Demand VARIABLE RN1@24+40 ;Daily demand
Target EQU 1000 ;Initial stock level
Reorder EQU 800 ;Reorder point
*********************************************************************
* The reorder process
GENERATE 5,,,,1 ;Review xact, Priority=1
TEST L S$Stock,Reorder,Skip ;Is stock < Reorderpt
ASSIGN 2,V$Orderqty ;Parameter 2=Order quantity
Custwait ADVANCE 5 ;Lead time is 5 days
ENTER Stock,P2 ;Stock increases by P2
Skip TERMINATE ;Ordering xact is finished
*********************************************************************
523
* The daily demand decrements quantity on hand
GENERATE 1 ;Daily demand transaction
ASSIGN 1,V$Demand ;Parameter 1(P1)=daily
demand
TABULATE Stock ;Record daily stock
TEST GE S$Stock,P1,Stockout ;Can order be filled
LEAVE Stock,P1 ;Remove demand from stock
TERMINATE 1 ;Daily timer
Stockout TERMINATE 1 ;Daily timer
*********************************************************************
* Initialize the inventory
GENERATE ,,,1,10 ;Set initial stock
ENTER Stock,Target ;Set init stock level=target
TERMINATE ;Xact is terminated
*********************************************************************
: ‫وﺻﻒ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‬
RMULT
‫ ﺑﺘﻐﯿﯿﺮ اﻟﻨﻮاة ﯾﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﻗﯿﺎس ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ اﻟﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ‬.‫ھﺬا اﻷﻣﺮ ﯾﻀﻊ ﻧﻮاة ﻣﻮﻟﺪ اﻻﻋﺪاد اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ‬
GPSS ‫ ﻓﻲ‬ANOVA ‫ ﺗﻜﺮار اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﯾﺸﻜﻞ اﻷﺳﺎس ﻓﻲ إﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻣﺮ‬،‫اﻟﺒﺤﺖ‬
STORAGE
‫ وھﻲ اﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻜﺜﯿﺮ‬10000 ‫ اﻋﻄﯿﺖ ﻟﮫ ﺳﻌﺔ‬Storage Entity Stock ‫ﻛﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﺘﺨﺰﯾﻦ ﻟﻠﻤﺨﺰون‬
‫ ﺣﯿﺚ اﻧﮫ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﻟﻨﺎ‬warehouse ‫ﻣﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﺘﺨﺰﯾﻦ اﻟﻌﺎدي وﯾﻤﺜﻞ اﻟﺴﻌﺔ اﻟﻜﻠﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺨﺰن‬
Storage ‫ ﻣﺤﺘﻮي اﻟﻤﺨﺰن‬.‫اﻟﺴﻤﺎح ﻟﻤﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ﺑﺎن ﯾﺰﯾﺪ ﻋﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﻤﺴﺘﮭﺪف‬
‫ ﻟﮭﺬا ﻓﺈن ﻣﺴﺘﻮي اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ‬.‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﺳﻮف ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﮫ ﻟﯿﻤﺜﻞ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ‬
S$Stock ‫ ﺗﺴﻤﻲ‬SNA ‫ﺳﯿﺘﻮﻓﺮ ﺧﻼل اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻛﺼﻔﺔ ﻧﻈﺎم ﻋﺪدﯾﺔ‬
TABLE
‫ ووﺿﻊ ﻟﺘﺠﻤﯿﻊ ﺗﺎرﯾﺦ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ‬Stock ‫ﺟﺪول ﯾﺴﻤﻲ‬
ORDERQTY
524
‫اﻟﻜﻤﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺰﻣﻊ طﻠﺒﮭﺎ وھﻲ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﻤﺴﺘﮭﺪف ‪ Target‬ﻧﺎﻗﺺ ﻛﻤﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮدة‬
‫‪stock on hand‬‬
‫‪DEMAND‬‬
‫اﻟﻄﻠﺐ اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ وﯾﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ ‪ 40‬اﻟﻲ ‪ 63‬وﺣﺪة وﺑﺈﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻت ﻣﺘﺴﺎوﯾﺔ‪ .‬اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ @ ﯾﺮﻣﺰ اﻟﻰ‬
‫اﻟﺒﺎﻗﻲ ﺑﻌﺪ اﻟﻘﺴﻤﺔ ‪ modulo arithmetic‬ﻓﮭﻮ ﯾﺤﻮل اﻟﺮﻗﻢ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺠﺎل ‪ 0‬و ‪ 999‬إﻟﻲ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺠﺎل ‪ 0‬و ‪ 23‬وﻧﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻲ اﻟﻨﺘﯿﺠﺔ اﻟﻨﮭﺎﺋﯿﺔ ﺑﺈﺿﺎﻓﺔ ‪ 40‬اﻟﺮﻗﻢ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ ﻧﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﯿﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻟﺼﻔﺔ اﻟﻌﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم ‪ SNA‬اﻟﻤﺴﻤﺎة ‪V$Demand‬‬
‫‪TARGET‬‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﻤﺴﺘﮭﺪف ‪ target stock level‬وﯾﺴﻤﻲ ‪ Target‬وﻗﺪ وﺿﻊ ﻣﺴﺎوﯾﺎ‬

‫‪ 1000‬إﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﺳﻤﺎء ﻟﻠﻘﯿﻢ ﯾﺠﻌﻞ اﻷﻣﺮ اﺳﮭﻞ ﻋﻨﺪ إﺟﺮاء ﺗﺠﺎرب ﻋﻠﻲ طﺮﯾﻘﺔ إﻋﺎدة اﻟﻄﻠﺐ‬
‫‪reorder scheme‬‬
‫‪REORDER‬‬
‫ﻧﻘﻄﺔ إﻋﺎدة اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ‪ reorder point‬وﺳﻤﯿﻨﺎھﺎ ‪ Reorder‬ووﺿﻌﺖ ﻣﺴﺎوﯾﺔ ﻟـ ‪ 800‬ﻛﻤﺎ ذﻛﺮﻧﺎ‬

‫ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺎ إﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﺳﻤﺎء ﻟﻠﻘﯿﻢ ﯾﺠﻌﻞ اﻷﻣﺮ اﺳﮭﻞ ﻋﻨﺪ إﺟﺮاء ﺗﺠﺎرب ﻋﻠﻲ طﺮﯾﻘﺔ إﻋﺎدة اﻟﻄﻠﺐ‬
‫‪reorder scheme‬‬
‫ﺳﻨﻨﻈﺮ اﻵن إﻟﻲ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻌﺮف اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺪﺧﻠﮭﺎ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ ‪ Transactions‬ﻋﻨﺪ‬
‫إﺟﺮاء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪.‬‬
‫ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ GENERATE Block‬ﯾﻮﻟﺪ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ ‪ Transaction‬ﻣﺮة ﻛﻞ ‪ 5‬أﯾﺎم ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪ .‬ﻣﻦ‬

‫اﻵن ﻓﺼﺎﻋﺪا ﯾﺠﺐ إﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﯿﻮم ﻛﻮﺣﺪة زﻣﻨﯿﺔ ﻟﮭﺬه اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪ .‬ھﻨﺎ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﯾﻐﺎدر ﻗﺎﻟﺐ‬
‫‪ GENERATE‬ﻛﻞ ﺧﻤﺴﺔ اﯾﺎم ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻟﻐﺮض إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﺨﺰون وإﻋﺎدة اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻨﺪ‬
‫اﻟﺤﺎﺟﺔ ﻓﻘﻂ‪.‬‬
‫‪TEST‬‬
‫‪525‬‬
‫ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ TEST Block‬ﯾﺤﺪد ﻓﯿﻤﺎ إذا ﻛﺎن إﻋﺎدة اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺿﺮوري ام ﻻ وھﺬا ﯾﺤﺪث إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ‬
‫‪ S$Stock‬اﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪ Reorder‬وإﻻ ﻓﺈن اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﺪاﺧﻞ ﯾﻘﻔﺰ إﻟﻲ ‪ Skip‬و ﯾﺘﻢ إﻧﮭﺎﺋﮫ ﺑﺪون‬
‫ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة إﻋﺎدة طﻠﺐ‪.‬‬
‫‪ASSIGN‬‬
‫ﻓﺈن‬ ‫إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻧﺘﯿﺠﺔ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ TEST Block‬ھﻲ ﺷﺮط إﻋﺎدة طﻠﺐ ‪reorder condition‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﯾﻤﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪ ASSIGN Block‬وھﺬا ﯾﻌﻄﻲ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ رﻗﻢ ‪parameter 2‬‬
‫‪number 2‬ﻟﮭﺬا اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻜﻤﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﻌﺎد طﻠﺒﮭﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ADVANCE‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﺬي ﯾﻜﺘﺸﻒ ﺷﺮط إﻋﺎدة اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﯾﻨﺘﻈﺮ ‪ 5‬اﯾﺎم ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻤﺜﻞ زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻘﺪم ﻟﻠﻄﻠﺐ‬
‫‪ order lead time‬ﻻﺣﻆ ان اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ اﻵﺧﺮﯾﻦ ﻻﯾﻤﻨﻌﻮا ﻣﻦ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ‪.‬‬
‫‪ENTER‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪ وﺻﻮل اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺧﻤﺴﺔ اﯾﺎم ﻓﺈن اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﯾﺪﺧﻞ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ ENTER Block‬وﯾﻀﯿﻒ اﻟﻲ‬
‫ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ‪ S$Stock‬اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮدة ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ رﻗﻢ ‪parameter number 2 2‬‬
‫ﯾﻨﮭﻰ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﻮن ‪ Transactions‬ﺑﺪون إﻧﻘﺎص ﻋﺪاد اﻹﻧﮭﺎء ‪ ) Termination Count‬ﻋﺪاد‬

‫اﻹﻧﮭﺎء ﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻟﺘﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﺷﺮط ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة(‬
‫ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﯾﻤﺜﻞ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ‪ ،‬ﺗﻮﻟﺪ ﻣﺮة ﻛﻞ ﯾﻮم ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة‬
‫‪ASSIGN‬‬
‫اﻟﻄﻠﺐ اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ ﯾﻮﺿﻊ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ رﻗﻢ ‪ 1‬ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ‬
‫‪526‬‬
‫ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ TABULATE Block‬ﯾﺠﺪد اﻟﻤﺪرج اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ ﻟﻠﻤﺨﺰون ﻗﺒﻞ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ‬
‫اي طﻠﺒﺎت‬
‫‪TEST‬‬
‫ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ TEST Block‬ﯾﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻘﺺ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ‪ stockout‬ﻓﺈذا وﺟﺪ ﻧﻘﺺ ﻓﻼ ﯾﺤﻘﻖ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ‬
‫وﯾﺮﺳﻞ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ إﻟﻲ اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ ﺑـ ‪Stockout‬‬
‫‪LEAVE‬‬
‫إذا ﻛﺎن ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ﻛﺎف ﻓﺈن اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﯾﻨﻘﺺ ﻣﻦ ‪ S$Stock‬ﺑﻤﻘﺪار اﻟﻄﻠﺐ اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ وﯾﻘﻮم‬
‫ﺑﮭﺬا ﺑﺪﺧﻮﻟﮫ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ LEAVE Block‬وﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ رﻗﻢ ‪ 1‬ﻛﺎﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ ‪( operand B ) B‬‬
‫ﯾﻨﮭﻰ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ وﯾﻨﻘﺺ ﻋﺪاد اﻹﻧﮭﺎء ‪ Termination Count‬ﺑﻤﻘﺪار ‪ 1‬ﻣﺆﺷﺮا ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ ﯾﻮم‬
‫ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة‬
‫ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ TERMINATE Block‬اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﻣﺰ ‪ Stockout‬ﯾﺪﺧﻞ ﻓﻘﻂ إذا ﺷﻌﺮ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﯾﻮﻣﻲ‬
‫ان طﻠﺒﺔ اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ ﻻﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻘﮫ‬
‫ھﺬا اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ‪ GENERATE‬ﯾﻮﻟﺪ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ واﺣﺪ ﻋﻨﺪ ﺑﺪاﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻟﺒﺪء ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﺨﺰون‬
‫وﻟﮫ اﻋﻠﻰ اﻓﻀﻠﯿﺔ ﻟﻜﻲ ﻻ ﯾﺒﻄﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ اﻵﺧﺮﯾﻦ‬
‫‪ENTER‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻤﺒﺪﺋﻲ ‪ initializing Transaction‬ﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪ ENTER Block‬ﻟﺘﻐﯿﯿﺮ‬

‫ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ‪ S$Stock‬ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﺴﺘﮭﺪف ﻋﻨﺪ ﺑﺪاﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‬
‫‪527‬‬
‫ﯾﻨﮭﻲ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻤﺒﺪﺋﻲ ﺑﺪون إﻧﻘﺎص ﻋﺪاد اﻹﻧﮭﺎء‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺎت‪:‬‬
‫ﻋﻠﻲ ﻋﻜﺲ ﻟﻐﺎت اﻟﺒﺮﻣﺠﺔ ذات اﻟﻄﺒﻊ اﻟﻌﺎم ﻓﺈن ‪ GPSS‬ﯾﺴﻤﺢ ﻟﻌﺪة ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻮاﺟﺪ ﻓﻲ اﻣﺎﻛﻦ‬
‫ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻋﻨﺪ اي ﻟﺤﻈﺔ زﻣﻨﯿﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﯾﺘﻮﻟﺪ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺜﻼﺛﺔ‬
‫ﻗﻮاﻟﺐ ‪ GENERATE‬واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻮﻟﺪ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ اﻧﻮاع ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ‪ .‬ﻓﻔﻲ اﻟﺠﺰء اﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﯾﺘﻮﻟﺪ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻛﻞ ﺧﻤﺴﺔ اﯾﺎم ﻋﻤﻞ ﻟﻤﺮاﺟﻌﺔ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون وإﻋﺎدة اﻟﻄﻠﺐ إذا اﺣﺘﺎج اﻷﻣﺮ‪ .‬وﺑﻌﺪ ﺧﻤﺴﺔ اﯾﺎم‬
‫ﯾﺼﻞ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ وﯾﻮﺿﻊ ﻣﻊ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون‪ .‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺰء اﻷوﺳﻂ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ ھﻨﺎ ﯾﻤﺜﻠﻮا اﻟﻄﻠﺐ اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ و‬
‫ﯾﺴﺒﺒﻮا ﻓﻲ إزاﺣﺔ اﻟﻮﺣﺪات ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ اﻟﻜﻤﯿﺔ ﻛﺎﻓﯿﺔ‪ ،‬وﻟﻜﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ اﻟﻄﻠﺒﯿﺔ ﯾﺠﺪول‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺪول ‪ . Stock‬اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻮﺣﯿﺪ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻟﺪ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺰء اﻷﺧﯿﺮ ﯾﻀﻊ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﺒﺪاﺋﻲ ﻟـ ‪ 1000‬وﺣﺪة وﯾﻌﻄﻲ ﻟﮫ اﻋﻠﻲ اﻓﻀﻠﯿﺔ ﺣﺘﻲ ﻧﺘﺄﻛﺪ اﻧﮫ ﺳﯿﻜﻮن اول ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻧﺸﻂ‬
‫‪Active Transaction‬‬
‫وﺣﺪات اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ھﻨﺎ ھﻲ اﻟﯿﻮم‪ .‬اﻟﻤﺤﺘﻮى اﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺰن ‪ Storage Entity‬اﻟﻤﺴﻤﻰ‬
‫‪ Stock‬ﯾﻤﺜﻞ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ وھﺬه اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ ﯾﺘﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ ﻣﻦ ‪ SNA‬اﻟﻤﺴﻤﻰ ‪S$Stock‬‬
‫اﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﻤﺴﻤﻰ ‪ Stock‬ﯾﺠﻤﻊ ﻣﺪرج ﺗﻜﺮاري ﻟﻤﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ‪ .‬اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﻤﺴﻤﺎة‬
‫‪ Target‬و ‪ Reorder‬ﺗﻤﺜﻞ ﻣﻌﻠﻤﯿﻦ ﻣﮭﻤﯿﻦ ﺟﺪا ﻟﮭﺬا اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﻓـ ‪ Target‬ﺗﻀﻊ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى‬
‫اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﻤﺴﺘﮭﺪف و ‪ Reorder‬ﺗﻀﻊ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﺬي ﯾﺴﺒﺐ إﻋﺎدة اﻟﻄﻠﺐ‪ .‬ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام‬
‫ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮات إﺳﻤﯿﺔ ﯾﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﺑﺴﮭﻮﻟﺔ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ھﺬه اﻟﻤﻌﺎﻟﻢ ﻟﻜﻲ ﻧﺴﺘﻜﺸﻒ ﺑﺪاﺋﻞ اﺧﺮى‪.‬‬
‫ﻹﺟﺮاء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة وﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ اﻟﻤﻌﯿﺎري اﺧﺘﺎر ‪ File / Open‬وﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار اﺧﺘﺎر‬
‫‪ PERIODIC‬ﺛﻢ اﺿﻐﻂ ‪ Open‬ﺑﻌﺪﺋﺬن ﻧﻮﻟﺪ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪ ،‬اﺧﺘﺎر ‪Command / Create‬‬
‫‪ Simulation‬ﺛﻢ اﺧﺘﺎر ‪ Command / START‬وﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار ﺑﺪل ‪ 1‬ﺑﺎﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ‬
‫‪ 200‬ﺛﻢ اﺿﻐﻂ ‪ OK‬ﺳﺘﻨﺘﮭﻲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ ‪ 200‬طﻠﺐ ﯾﻮﻣﻲ‪ ،‬ﻋﻨﺪ إﻧﺘﮭﺎء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﯾﻮﻟﺪ‬
‫اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺮ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﻠﻒ ‪ . Periodic.1.1‬وﯾﻌﺮض اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ ﺗﻠﻘﺎﺋﯿﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪528‬‬
‫اﻟﺠﺪول ‪ Stock‬ﯾﻮﺿﺢ ان ﻧﻈﺎم اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ﯾﺤﻘﻖ ﻛﻞ اﻟﻄﻠﺒﺎت اﻟﯿﻮﻣﯿﺔ وﻟﻢ ﯾﻌﺎﻧﻲ ﻣﻦ اي ﻧﻘﺺ‬
‫‪ outage‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻧﻼﺣﻆ اﻧﮫ ﻻﺗﻮﺟﺪ اي ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ﯾﻮﻣﻲ ﻣﺠﺪوﻟﺔ اﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪ 300‬وھﺬا ﯾﺒﯿﻦ ان ﻋﻤﻞ‬
‫اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻣﺮﺿﻰ‪.‬‬
‫ﻟﻨﺴﺘﻜﺸﻒ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة واﻟﺬي وﻟﺪ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ اﻟﻤﻌﯿﺎري‪ .‬اوﻻ ﻟﻨﮭﻲء ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻌﺒﺎرات ﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪت‬
‫ﻗﯿﻤﺘﯿﻦ‪ .‬اﺧﺘﺎر‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺗﺤﺮﯾﺮ اﻟﻌﺒﺎرات وﻓﻲ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﺮﻣﺰ ‪ Label‬اﻛﺘﺐ‬
‫‪No. Stockouts‬‬
‫وﻓﻲ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﻌﺒﺎرات اﻛﺘﺐ ‪ N$Stockout‬ھﺬا ﺳﯿﺠﻌﻠﻨﺎ ﻧﺸﺎھﺪ ‪ stock outages‬اﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫‪ View‬و ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ Memorize‬ﻟﻨﻀﯿﻒ ﻣﺴﺘﻮي اﻟﺘﺨﺰﯾﻦ اﻷﻗﺼﻲ ‪maximum stock level‬‬
‫ﻓﻔﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار ﻋﻨﺪ ‪ Label‬اﺳﺘﺒﺪل اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﺑـ ‪ Max Stock‬وﻓﻲ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﺘﻌﺎﺑﯿﺮ‬
‫اﺳﺘﺒﺪل اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﺑـ ‪ SM$Stock‬اﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻲ ‪ View‬و ﻋﻠﻲ ‪ Memorize‬ﻟﻨﻀﯿﻒ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ ‪ Label‬اﺳﺘﺒﺪل اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ‬ ‫اﯾﻀﺎ ﻣﺴﺘﻮي اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ ‪current stock level‬‬
‫اﻟﺤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﺑـ ‪ Stock‬وﺧﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﺘﻌﺎﺑﯿﺮ ﺗﺴﺘﺒﺪل ﺑـ ‪ S$Stock‬اﻵن اﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻲ ‪ View‬وﻋﻠﻲ‬
‫‪ Memorize‬ﻟﻨﻀﯿﻒ اﺧﯿﺮا رﻗﻢ اﻟﯿﻮم‪ ،‬ﻏﯿﺮ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﺮﻣﺰ اﻟﻲ ‪ Day‬وﺧﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﻌﺒﺎرات اﻟﻲ‬
‫‪ AC1‬ﺛﻢ اﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻲ ‪ View‬وﻋﻠﻲ ‪ Memorize‬أﺧﯿﺮا اﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻲ ‪ OK‬ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻨﺎ ﻧﺎﺟﺢ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻣﻨﻊ ﻧﻘﺺ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ‪ outages‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻧﺸﺎھﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻋﺪد ﻧﻘﺺ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ‪ stockouts‬اﻟﻤﺨﺰون‬
‫اﻷﻗﺼﻲ ‪ Max Stock‬ﯾﺒﯿﻦ أﻗﺼﻲ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻟﻤﺴﺘﻮي اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ﺧﻼل اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة وھﻮ اﻋﻠﻲ ﻣﻤﺎ ﻛﻨﺎ‬
‫ﻧﺘﻮﻗﻊ‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺪرج اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري ﻟﻤﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ ﻧﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﯿﮫ ﺑﺈﺧﺘﯿﺎر‬
‫وﺑﻤﺎ اﻧﮫ ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﺟﺪول واﺣﺪ إﺿﻐﻂ ‪OK‬‬
‫‪529‬‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ ان ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ھﻮ ‪ 785.45‬وھﺬا ﯾﻤﺜﻞ اﻟﻤﺎل اﻟﻤﻌﻄﻞ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺒﻀﺎﺋﻊ اﻟﻤﺨﺰﻧﺔ‬
‫وھﻮ ﻣﻘﯿﺎس ﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪ ،‬ﻟﻨﺘﺎﺑﻊ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻣﻼﺣﻈﯿﻦ ﺟﺪول ‪Stock‬‬
‫اﯾﻀﺎ ﺳﻨﺮاﻗﺐ رﻗﻢ اﻟﯿﻮم وﻧﺤﻦ ﻧﺸﺎھﺪ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻌﺒﺎرات‪ ،‬ﺳﻮف ﻧﺒﺪأ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة وﻧﺠﻌﻠﮭﺎ ﺗﺠﺮي ﻟﻤﺪة‬
‫‪ 100‬ﯾﻮم‪ .‬إﺧﺘﺎر ‪ Command / START‬وﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار اﺳﺘﺒﺪل ‪ 1‬ﺑـ ‪100,NP‬‬
‫)‪ NP‬ﺗﻌﻨﻲ ﻻﺗﻮﻟﺪ ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺮ( ﺛﻢ اﺧﺘﺎر ‪ ، OK‬ﺳﻨﺸﺎھﺪ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت وھﻲ ﺗﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺧﻼل اﻟﻤﺌﺔ ﯾﻮم‬
‫اﻹﺿﺎﻓﯿﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﺸﻐﯿﻞ‪ .‬اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺔ اﻟﺪاﺧﻠﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺟﺪا ﺑﺴﯿﻄﺔ‪ ،‬ﻋﻨﺪ اﻟﺒﺪاﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺠﺰء‬
‫اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﯾﺒﺪأ ﻛﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺰن ‪ Storage Entity‬اﻟﻤﺴﻤﻲ ‪ . Stock‬ﺑﻌﺪﺋﺬن ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ ﯾﻮم‬
‫ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ طﻠﺐ ﯾﺘﻮﻟﺪ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺰء اﻷوﺳﻂ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج وﻛﻞ ﺧﺎﻣﺲ ﯾﻮم ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ إﻋﺎدة طﻠﺐ ﯾﺘﻮﻟﺪ ﻓﻲ‬
‫اﻟﺠﺰء اﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‪ .‬إﻋﺎدة اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻻﯾﺘﺤﻘﻖ إﻻ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺧﻤﺴﺔ اﯾﺎم اﺧﺮى‪ .‬اﻗﻔﻞ ﻧﺎﻓﺬﺗﻲ اﻟﺠﺪول‬
‫‪ Tables‬و اﻟﻌﺒﺎرات ‪. Expressions‬‬
‫ﻟﻨﻔﺘﺢ اﻵن ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺸﮭﺪ اﻟﻤﻔﺼﻞ‪ ،‬اﺧﺘﺎر ‪.‬‬
‫ھﺬا ﺳﯿﺒﯿﻦ اﻟﻌﺪد اﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻟﺪﺧﻮل اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ‬
‫ﺷﻜﻞ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺸﮭﺪ اﻟﻤﻔﺼﻞ‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﺸﺎھﺪ ﺗﺎرﯾﺦ ﺟﺮي اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪ ،‬اﺧﺘﺎر ‪ Command / Clear‬ﺛﻢ اﺧﺘﺎر ‪ OK‬و اﺧﺘﺎر‬
‫‪ Command / START‬وﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار اﺳﺘﺒﺪل ‪ 1‬ﺑـ ‪ 100,NP‬واﺿﻐﻂ ‪ OK‬ﻻﺣﻆ‬
‫‪530‬‬
‫ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ اﻟﻨﺸﺎطﺎت ﻓﻲ اﻷﺟﺰاء اﻟﻤﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪ ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﺸﺎھﺪ ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ اﻧﻮاع ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﻣﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ‬
‫ﺗﻤﺮﯾﻦ‪ :‬ﺟﺮب ﺑﺘﺨﻔﯿﺾ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﻤﺴﺘﮭﺪف إﻟﻲ ‪ 800‬وﺣﺪة وﻧﻘﻄﺔ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ إﻟﻲ ‪ 600‬وﺣﺪة‪.‬‬
‫ﻗﺎرن اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‪.‬‬
‫‪531‬‬
‫‪ -4‬ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ورﺷﺔ ﺗﺼﻠﯿﺢ ﺗﻠﻔﺰﯾﻮن‬
‫ﻋﺮض اﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ورﺷﺔ إﺻﻼح اﺟﮭﺰة ﺗﻠﻔﺰﯾﻮن ﻋﺎﻣﻞ إﺻﻼح واﺣﺪ ﻟﻠﺼﯿﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﺪورﯾﺔ ‪ overhaul‬ﻷﺟﮭﺰة‬
‫اﻟﻮرﺷﺔ اﻟﻤﺆﺟﺮة وﻟﺼﯿﺎﻧﺔ اﺟﮭﺰة اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ وﻟﻠﻘﯿﺎم ﺑﺈﺻﻼﺣﺎت ﺳﺮﯾﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺣﯿﻨﮭﺎ‪ .‬اﻟﺼﯿﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﺪورﯾﺔ‬
‫ﻷﺟﮭﺰة اﻟﻮرﺷﺔ ﺗﺒﺪأ ﻛﻞ ‪ 40±8‬ﺳﺎﻋﺔ وﺗﺴﺘﻐﺮق ‪ 10±1‬ﺳﺎﻋﺔ ﻹﻛﻤﺎﻟﮭﺎ‪ .‬اﻹﺻﻼﺣﺎت اﻟﺴﺮﯾﻌﺔ‬
‫ﻣﺜﻞ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﻓﯿﻮز او ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻞ ﻗﻨﻮات ﺗﺠﺮي ﻓﻮرﯾﺎ وﺗﺼﻞ ﻛﻞ ‪ 90±10‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ وﺗﺴﺘﻐﺮق ‪15±5‬‬
‫دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‪ .‬أﺟﮭﺰة اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺤﺘﺎج إﺻﻼح وﺻﯿﺎﻧﺔ ﻋﺎدﯾﺔ ﺗﺼﻞ ﻛﻞ ‪ 5±1‬ﺳﺎﻋﺔ وﺗﺴﺘﻐﺮق‬
‫‪120±30‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ ﻹﻧﺘﮭﺎﺋﮭﺎ‪ .‬أﺟﮭﺰة اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﻟﮭﺎ اﻷﻓﻀﻠﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﺼﻠﯿﺢ ﻋﻦ اﻟﺼﯿﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﺪورﯾﺔ ﻷﺟﮭﺰة‬
‫اﻟﻮرﺷﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺣﺎﻛﻰ ﻋﻤﻞ اﻟﻮرﺷﺔ ﻟﻤﺪة ‪ 50‬ﯾﻮم‪.‬‬ ‫‪-3‬‬

‫ﺣﺪد ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﺘﺼﻠﯿﺢ واﻟﺘﺄﺧﯿﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‪.‬‬ ‫‪-4‬‬
‫ﻋﺮض اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ‪:‬‬
‫‪; GPSS World Sample File - TVREPAIR.GPS, by Gerard F. Cummings‬‬

‫*****************************************************************‬
‫*‬ ‫‪Television Maintenance Man Model‬‬ ‫*‬
‫*****************************************************************‬
‫*‬ ‫‪Repair of rented sets, one each week‬‬ ‫*‬
‫*‬ ‫‪Time unit is one minute‬‬ ‫*‬
‫*****************************************************************‬
‫‪GENERATE‬‬ ‫‪2400,480,,,1‬‬ ‫‪;Overhaul of a rented set‬‬
‫‪QUEUE‬‬ ‫‪Overhaul‬‬ ‫‪;Queue for service‬‬
‫‪QUEUE‬‬ ‫‪Alljobs‬‬ ‫‪;Collect global statistics‬‬
‫‪SEIZE‬‬ ‫‪Maintenance‬‬ ‫‪;Obtain TV repairman‬‬
‫‪DEPART‬‬ ‫‪Overhaul‬‬ ‫‪;Leave queue for man‬‬
‫‪DEPART‬‬ ‫‪Alljobs‬‬ ‫‪;Collect global statistics‬‬
‫‪ADVANCE‬‬ ‫‪600,60‬‬ ‫‪;Complete job 10+/-1 hours‬‬
‫‪RELEASE‬‬ ‫‪Maintenance‬‬ ‫‪;Free repairman‬‬
‫‪TERMINATE‬‬ ‫‪;Remove one transaction‬‬
‫*****************************************************************‬
‫*‬ ‫‪On the spot repairs‬‬
‫‪GENERATE‬‬ ‫‪90,10,,,3‬‬ ‫‪;On-the-spot repairs‬‬
‫‪532‬‬
QUEUE Spot ;Queue for spot repairs
QUEUE Alljobs ;Collect global statistics
PREEMPT Maintenance,PR ;Get the TV repairman
DEPART Spot ;Depart the 'spot' queue
DEPART Alljobs ;Collect global statistics
ADVANCE 15,5 ;Time for tuning/fuse/fault
RETURN Maintenance ;Free maintenance man
TERMINATE
****************************************************************
* Normal repairs on customer owned sets
GENERATE 300,60,,,2 ;Normal TV Repairs
QUEUE Service ;Queue for service
QUEUE Alljobs ;Collect global statistics
PREEMPT Maintenance,PR ;Preempt maintenance man
DEPART Service ;Depart the 'service' queue
DEPART Alljobs ;Collect global statistics
ADVANCE 120,30 ;Normal service time
RETURN Maintenance ;Release the man
TERMINATE
*****************************************************************
GENERATE 480 ;One xact each 8 hr. day
TERMINATE 1
* Day counter
*****************************************************************
* Tables of queue statistics
Overhaul QTABLE Overhaul,10,10,20
Spot QTABLE Spot,10,10,20
Service QTABLE Service,10,10,20
Alljobs QTABLE Alljobs,10,10,20
*****************************************************************
:‫وﺻﻒ ﻋﻤﻞ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‬
GENERATE
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ واﻟﺬﯾﻦ ﯾﻤﺜﻠﻮا اﺟﮭﺰة اﻟﻮرﺷﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺤﺘﺎج اﻟﻲ ﺻﯿﺎﻧﺔ دورﯾﺔ ﺗﻮﻟﺪ ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ ھﺬه اﻹﺻﻼﺣﺎت ﺗﻌﻄﻲ اﻗﻞ اوﻟﻮﯾﮫ ﺑﺮﺗﺒﺔ‬.‫ وﺣﺪة اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﺳﺘﻜﻮن ﺑﺎﻟﺪﻗﺎﺋﻖ‬.‫ ﺳﺎﻋﺔ‬40 ‫اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻛﻞ‬
.1
533
‫‪QUEUE‬‬
‫ھﻨﺎ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻗﺎﻟﺒﯿﻦ ‪ QUEUE‬ﻟﺠﻤﻊ إﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺎت ﻣﻨﻔﺮدة‪ .‬ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ QUEUE‬ﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر‬

‫‪Queue Entity‬اﻟﻤﺴﻤﻲ ‪ Overhaul‬ﯾﺠﻤﻊ إﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺎت ازﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﺒﺪء ﻷﺟﮭﺰة اﻟﺼﯿﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﺪورﯾﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ QUEUE‬اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ‪ Queue Entity‬اﻟﻤﺴﻤﻲ ‪ Alljobs‬ﯾﻜﺮر ﻓﻲ اﻣﺎﻛﻦ‬
‫اﺧﺮى ﻟﻜﻲ ﯾﺠﻤﻊ إﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺎت ﻟﻸﻧﻮاع اﻷﺧﺮى ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﺼﻠﯿﺤﺎت ﻛﻤﺎ ﻟﮭﺬة‪.‬‬
‫‪SEIZE‬‬
‫إﺻﻼﺣﺎت اﻟﺼﯿﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﺪورﯾﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻨﺘﻈﺮ وﺗﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻲ إھﺘﻤﺎم ﻋﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﺘﺼﻠﯿﺢ ﺗﻤﺜﻞ ﺑﻜﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ‬
‫‪ Facility Entity‬اﻟﻤﺴﻤﺎة ‪Maintenance‬‬
‫‪DEPART‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﺤﺼﻞ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺻﯿﺎﻧﺔ دورﯾﺔ ﻋﻠﻲ إﻧﺘﺒﺎه ﺗﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﺘﺼﻠﯿﺢ ﯾﻨﺘﮭﻲ وﻗﺖ إﻧﺘﻈﺎره‪ .‬إﺛﻨﺎن‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﻗﻮاﻟﺐ ‪ DEPART‬ﺗﺴﺠﻞ وﻗﺖ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﯿﻦ طﺎﺑﻮر ‪ Queue entities‬ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ADVANCE‬‬
‫ھﺬا اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ﯾﺤﺎﻛﻲ زﻣﻦ اﻟﺼﯿﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﺪورﯾﺔ ‪ 600 ±60‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪RELEASE‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪ إﻛﻤﺎل ﺻﯿﺎﻧﺔ دورﯾﺔ ﻓﺈن اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﺬي ﯾﻤﺜﻠﮭﺎ ﯾﺨﻠﻲ ﺳﺒﯿﻞ ﻛﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ‬
‫اﻟﺘﺼﻠﯿﺢ ﻣﻤﺎ ﯾﺴﻤﺢ ﻟﺼﯿﺎﻧﺔ اﺧﺮى ﻓﻲ ان ﺗﺒﺪأ‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻤﻤﺜﻞ ﻟﺼﯿﺎﻧﺔ دورﯾﺔ ﯾﻨﮭﻰ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة وﺑﻮن إﻧﻘﺎص ﻋﺪاد اﻹﻧﮭﺎء ‪Termination‬‬
‫‪Count‬‬
‫‪534‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ ‪ Transactions‬اﻟﻤﻤﺜﻠﯿﻦ ﻟﻺﺻﻼﺣﺎت اﻟﻔﻮرﯾﺔ ﺗﻮﻟﺪ ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻛﻞ‬
‫‪90‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ وﻟﮭﻢ أﻓﻀﻠﯿﺔ أﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺼﯿﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﺪورﯾﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪QUEUE‬‬
‫ھﻨﺎ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻗﺎﻟﺒﯿﻦ ‪ QUEUE‬ﻟﺠﻤﻊ إﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺎت ﻣﻨﻔﺮدة‪ .‬ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ QUEUE‬ﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر‬

‫‪Queue Entity‬اﻟﻤﺴﻤﻲ ‪ Spot‬ﯾﺠﻤﻊ إﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺎت ازﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﺒﺪء ﻷﺟﮭﺰة اﻟﺼﯿﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﻔﻮرﯾﺔ‪ .‬ﻗﺎﻟﺐ‬
‫‪ QUEUE‬اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ‪ Queue Entity‬اﻟﻤﺴﻤﻲ ‪ Alljobs‬ﯾﻜﺮر ﻓﻲ اﻣﺎﻛﻦ اﺧﺮى‬
‫ﻟﻜﻲ ﯾﺠﻤﻊ إﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺎت ﻟﻸﻧﻮاع اﻷﺧﺮى ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﺼﻠﯿﺤﺎت ﻛﻤﺎ ﻟﮭﺬة‪.‬‬
‫‪PREEMPT‬‬
‫ﺑﻤﺎ ان اﻟﺼﯿﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﻔﻮرﯾﺔ ﺗﻘﻄﻊ ﻛﻞ اﻧﻮاع اﻟﺼﯿﺎﻧﺔ اﻻﺧﺮى ﻓﺈن اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﻤﺜﻠﯿﻦ ﻟﻠﺼﯿﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﻔﻮرﯾﺔ‬
‫ﺗﺤﺎول اﻟﺪﺧﻮل ﻓﻲ طﻮر أوﻟﻮﯾﺔ ﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ إﺧﻼء ‪ PREEMPT Block‬ﻟﻜﻲ ﺗﺘﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻲ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ‬
‫اﻟﺘﺼﻠﯿﺢ وھﺬا ﺳﯿﻮﻗﻒ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻣﺆﻗﺖ اي ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺔ ﺻﯿﺎﻧﺔ دورﯾﺔ او ﻋﺎدﯾﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪DEPART‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪ إﻣﺘﻼك ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺻﯿﺎﻧﺔ ﻓﻮرﯾﺔ ﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﺘﺼﻠﯿﺢ ﯾﻨﺘﮭﻲ وﻗﺖ إﻧﺘﻈﺎره‪ . .‬إﺛﻨﺎن ﻣﻦ ﻗﻮاﻟﺐ‬
‫‪ DEPART‬ﺗﺴﺠﻞ وﻗﺖ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﯿﻦ طﺎﺑﻮر ‪ Queue entities‬ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ADVANCE‬‬
‫ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ ADVANCE Block‬ﯾﺤﺎﻛﻲ وﻗﺖ اﻟﺘﺼﻠﯿﺢ ‪ 15±5‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪RELEASE‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪ إﻛﻤﺎل ﺻﯿﺎﻧﺔ ﻓﻮرﯾﺔ ﻓﺈن اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﺬي ﯾﻤﺜﻠﮭﺎ ﯾﺨﻠﻲ ﺳﺒﯿﻞ ﻛﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﻤﺜﻞ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ‬
‫اﻟﺘﺼﻠﯿﺢ ﻣﻤﺎ ﯾﺴﻤﺢ ﻟﺼﯿﺎﻧﺔ اﺧﺮى ﻓﻲ ان ﺗﺒﺪأ‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻤﻤﺜﻞ ﻟﺼﯿﺎﻧﺔ ﻓﻮرﯾﺔ ﯾﻨﮭﻰ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة وﺑﻮن إﻧﻘﺎص ﻋﺪاد اﻹﻧﮭﺎء ‪Termination‬‬
‫‪Count‬‬
‫‪535‬‬
‫‪GENERATE-TERMINATE‬‬
‫ھﺬا اﻟﺠﺰء ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﯾﻌﻤﻞ ﺗﻤﺎﻣﺎ ﻛﺎﻟﺠﺰء اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻣﻊ ﻓﺎرق واﺣﺪ‪ ،‬ﺣﯿﺚ ان اﻟﺼﯿﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﻔﻮرﯾﺔ‬
‫ﺗﻘﻄﻊ اي ﻣﻦ اﻧﻮاع اﻟﺼﯿﺎﻧﺔ اﻻﺧﺮى‪ ،‬اﻻ ان اﻟﺼﯿﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﯾﺔ ﺗﻘﻄﻊ ﻓﻘﻂ اﻟﺼﯿﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﺪورﯾﺔ وﻟﮭﺬا‬
‫ﻓﺈﻧﻨﺎ ﻧﻌﻄﻲ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﺬي ﯾﻤﺜﻞ ﺻﯿﺎﻧﺔ ﻋﺎدﯾﺔ اﻓﻀﻠﯿﺔ ﻣﺴﺎوﯾﺔ ‪ ) 2‬اﻓﻀﻠﯿﺔ ﺗﻘﻊ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻷﻓﻀﻠﯿﺘﯿﻦ‬
‫اﻻﺧﺮى(‬
‫ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻟﻌﺪ إﻧﻘﻀﺎء ﯾﻮم واﺣﺪ ﯾﻮﻟﺪ ﻛﻞ ‪ 8‬ﺳﺎﻋﺎت ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻌﺪ ‪ Counting Transaction‬ﯾﻨﺘﮭﻰ ﻓﻮرﯾﺎ‪ .‬ھﺬا ﯾﻨﻘﺺ ‪ 1‬ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪاد اﻹﻧﮭﺎء‬
‫‪ Termination Count‬ﻣﻤﺎ ﯾﺴﻤﺢ ﻟﻨﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﯿﻄﺮة ﻋﻠﻲ طﻮل اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ‪) A‬‬
‫‪ (operand A‬ﻓﻲ اﻣﺮ ‪START Command‬‬
‫‪QTABLE‬‬
‫ﻋﺒﺎرة ‪ QTABLE‬اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺒﺪأ ﺑـ ‪ Overhaul‬ﺗﻌﺮف ﻣﺪرﺟﺎت ﺗﻜﺮارﯾﺔ ﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺎت اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ﻛﻞ‬

‫ﻣﻨﮭﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺟﺪول ‪ Table Window‬واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻌﺮض ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ اﻟﻤﻌﯿﺎري‪ .‬ﻻﺣﻆ ھﻨﺎ اﻧﻨﺎ‬
‫ﻻﻧﺤﺘﺎج وﺿﻊ ﻗﻮاﻟﺐ ‪ TABULATE Blocks‬ﻟﺠﺪاول اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ‪ Qtables‬ﻷن اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺎت‬
‫ﺗﺴﺠﻞ ﺗﻠﻘﺎﺋﯿﺎ ﻋﻨﺪ اﻟﺪﺧﻮل اﻟﻲ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ DEPART Block‬اﻟﻤﻌﻨﻲ‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﻣﻨﻈﻢ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺪة أﺟﺰاء‪ .‬ﻛﻞ ﺟﺰء ﻟﮫ ﻧﻮع ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ‪ .‬اﻷﺟﺰاء اﻟﺜﻼﺛﺔ اﻻوﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺗﻤﺜﻞ اﻟﺼﯿﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﺪورﯾﺔ واﻟﺼﯿﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﻔﻮرﯾﺔ واﻟﺼﯿﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﯾﺔ ﻋﻠﻲ اﻟﺘﺮﺗﯿﺐ‪ .‬ھﺬة ﻛﻠﮭﺎ ﺗﺘﻨﺎﻓﺲ ﻋﻠﻲ‬
‫اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ ‪ Facility Entity‬اﻟﻮﺣﯿﺪة اﻟﻤﺴﻤﺎة ‪ Maintenance‬واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻤﺜﻞ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﺘﺼﻠﯿﺢ‪.‬‬
‫وظﺎﺋﻒ اﻟﺼﯿﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﺪورﯾﺔ اﻋﻄﯿﺖ اﻗﻞ اﻓﻀﻠﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﺠﺰء اﻟﺴﻔﻠﻲ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﯾﻮﻗﺖ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة وذﻟﻚ ﺑﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ وإﻧﮭﺎء ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻛﻞ ﯾﻮم ﻋﻤﻞ ﻣﺤﺎﻛﻰ‪ .‬ﻗﺎﻟﺐ‬
‫‪ TERMINATE‬ھﻨﺎ ھﻮ اﻟﻮﺣﯿﺪ اﻟﺬي ﯾﺴﺒﺐ ﻟﻌﺪاد اﻹﻧﮭﺎء ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﻨﺎﻗﺺ واﻟﺬي ﯾﻌﻄﻰ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل‬
‫اﻷﻣﺮ ‪ START Command‬واﻟﺬي ﯾﻮﻗﻒ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﺼﺒﺢ ﻋﺪاد اﻹﻧﮭﺎء‬
‫)‪ Termination Count (TG1‬ﺻﻔﺮا أو أﻗﻞ‪.‬‬
‫‪536‬‬
‫أوﻗﺎت اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻟﻜﻞ ﻧﻮع ﻣﻦ اﻧﻮاع اﻟﺼﯿﺎﻧﺔ ﺗﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ ﻛﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ‪Queue entities‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺴﻤﺎة ‪ Overhaul‬و ‪ Spot‬و ‪ Service‬أوﻗﺎت اﻟﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﻟﺠﻤﯿﻊ اﻟﻮظﺎﺋﻒ ﺗﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ ﻛﺎﺋﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ‪ Alljobs‬ھﺬه اﻷوﻗﺎت ﻻﺗﺸﻤﻞ أوﻗﺎت اﻟﺘﺼﻠﯿﺢ ﻓﻘﻂ اﻟﺘﺄﺧﺮ ﺣﺘﻲ ﯾﺒﺪأ اﻟﺘﺼﻠﯿﺢ‪.‬‬
‫ﻛﺎﺋﻨﺎت ‪ Qtable entities‬ﻋﺮﻓﻨﺎھﺎ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻛﺎﺋﻦ طﺎﺑﻮر ‪ Queue Entity‬وھﺬة طﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﺳﮭﻠﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮل ﻋﻠﻲ ﻣﺪرج ﺗﻜﺮاري ﺗﻠﻘﺎﺋﻲ ﻷوﻗﺎت اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻟﻜﻞ ﻧﻮع‪.‬‬
‫ﻹﺟﺮاء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة وﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺮ ﻣﻌﯿﺎري ﻧﺨﺘﺎر ‪ File / Open‬وﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار ﻧﺨﺘﺎر‬
‫‪Command /‬‬ ‫‪ TVREPAIR‬ﺛﻢ ﻧﺨﺘﺎر ‪ . Open‬ﻵﺑﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻠﻖ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﺈﺧﺘﯿﺎر‬
‫‪ Create Simulation‬ﺛﻢ ﻧﺨﺘﺎر ‪ Command / START‬وﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار ﻧﺴﺘﺒﺪل‬
‫اﻟﻮاﺣﺪ اﻟﺼﺤﯿﺢ ﺑـ ‪ 50‬وإﺿﻐﻂ ‪OK‬‬
‫ﺗﻨﺘﮭﻲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﻌﺪ ﻣﺮور ‪ 50‬ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ‪ Transactions‬ﺑﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪ TERMINATE Block‬وھﺬا‬

‫ﯾﻤﺜﻞ ‪ 50‬ﯾﻮم ﻋﻤﻞ‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﯾﻜﺘﺐ ‪ GPSS‬ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺮ ﻣﻌﯿﺎري ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﻠﻒ ‪ . TVRepair.1.1‬ﯾﻌﺮض ھﺬا‬

‫اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ ﺗﻠﻘﺎﺋﯿﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﻘﺎرﯾﺮ‪.‬‬
‫ﯾﻼﺣﻆ ان ﻋﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﺘﺼﻠﯿﺢ ﻛﺎن ﻣﺸﻐﻮﻻ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺟﯿﺪ إذ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺘﮫ ‪ . 78%‬ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ اوﻗﺎت اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر‬
‫ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ‪ 25‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ ﻟﺼﯿﺎﻧﺔ اﻷﺟﮭﺰة اﻟﺪورﯾﺔ و ‪ 51‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ ﻟﺼﯿﺎﻧﺔ اﻷﺟﮭﺰة اﻟﻌﺎدﯾﺔ‪ .‬ﻟﻢ ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ھﻨﺎك اي‬
‫ﺗﺄﺧﯿﺮ ﻟﻮظﺎﺋﻒ اﻟﺼﯿﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﻔﻮرﯾﺔ‪ .‬ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر اﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﺣﻮاﻟﻲ ‪ 12‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ وھﺬا ﻻﯾﺸﻤﻞ‬
‫اوﻗﺎت اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ طﺒﻌﺎ ﻧﻈﺮا ﻟﻮﺿﻊ ﻗﻮاﻟﺐ ‪DEPART Blocks‬‬
‫ﻟﻨﻨﻈﺮ إﻟﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ اﻟﻤﻌﯿﺎري‪.‬‬
‫‪537‬‬
‫اوﻻ ﻟﻨﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﺘﺼﻠﯿﺢ‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ‪ Model Window‬ﻧﺨﺘﺎر‬
‫‪ Command / SHOW‬وﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار أﻛﺘﺐ ‪ FR$Maintenance‬ﺛﻢ اﺿﻐﻂ‬
‫‪. OK‬‬
‫اﻟﻔﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﻧﺸﺎھﺪھﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺳﻄﺮ ‪ Status line‬ﻓﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﻟﮭﺬه اﻟﺼﻔﺔ اﻟﻌﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم‬
‫‪ SNA‬ﻣﻌﺒﺮ ﻋﻨﮭﺎ ﻛﺄﺟﺰاء ﻣﻦ اﻟﻒ واﻟﺘﻲ ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ‪78%‬‬
‫ﻟﻜﻲ ﻧﻨﻈﺮ إﻟﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ ‪ Facility‬اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻤﺜﻞ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﺘﺼﻠﯿﺢ ﻧﻔﺘﺢ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻼت‬
‫ﻟﻨﺨﺘﺎر ‪ Window / Simulation Window / Facilities Window‬ﻧﺤﻦ اﻵن ﻧﻨﻈﺮ‬

‫اﻟﻲ اﻟﻤﻨﻈﺮ اﻟﻤﻔﺼﻞ ﻟﮭﺬه اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة‪ ،‬ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﺼﻠﯿﺢ ﺣﻮاﻟﻲ ‪ 52‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫إذا ﻓﺘﺤﻨﺎ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺠﺪول ‪ Table Window‬ﻟـ ‪ Overhaul Table‬ﺳﻨﺮى اﻟﻤﺪرج اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري‬
‫‪Window / Simulation Window / Table‬‬ ‫ﻷزﻣﻨﺔ إﻧﺘﻈﺎر اﻟﻮظﺎﺋﻒ‪ .‬ﻟﻨﺨﺘﺎر‬
‫و اﺧﺘﺎر‬ ‫‪The Down Arrow‬‬ ‫‪ Window‬وﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار إﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻲ‬
‫‪ OVERHAUL‬ﺛﻢ ‪OK‬‬
‫‪.‬ﺟﺪول اﻟﺼﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺪورﯾﺔ‬
‫‪538‬‬
‫ھﺬا ﯾﻌﻄﻲ ﻧﻔﺲ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺟﺪول ‪ Overhaul Table‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ اﻟﻌﯿﺎري‪ .‬ﻟﻜﻲ ﻧﺸﺎھﺪ‬
‫‪ Qtable entities‬اﻻﺧﺮى‪ ،‬ﻧﻜﺮر ﻣﺎ ﻓﻌﻠﻨﺎة ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺎ وﻟﻜﻦ ﻧﺨﺘﺎر اﻷﺳﻤﺎء ‪ Service‬او ‪ Spot‬أو‬
‫‪ Alljobs‬ﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار‪ .‬وﯾﺘﺮك ھﺬا ﻛﺘﻤﺮﯾﻦ‪.‬‬
‫أﻗﻔﻞ ﺟﻤﯿﻊ اﻟﻨﻮاﻓﺬ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪Model‬‬ ‫ﻟﻨﻨﻈﺮ اﻵن ﻟﻤﺎ ﯾﺤﺪث ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﺼﻞ اﻟﻮظﺎﺋﻒ ﻛﻞ ‪ 30‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‬
‫‪ Window‬ﻟﻨﺒﺤﺚ ﻋﻦ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ GENERATE‬اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ )ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺰء اﻟﺨﺎص ﺑﺎﻟﺼﯿﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﻌﺎدﯾﺔ ﻣﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج(‪ .‬ﻏﯿﺮ ھﺬا ﺑﺤﯿﺚ ﺗﺼﺒﺢ ﻋﻤﺎل ‪ operands‬ھﺬا اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪ A‬ﯾﺴﺎوي ‪ 30‬و ‪ B‬ﯾﺴﺎوي ‪5‬‬
‫ﺑﺪﻻ ﻣﻦ ‪ 300‬و ‪ . 60‬أﻋﺪ ﺗﺮﺟﻤﺔ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﺑﺈﺧﺘﯿﺎر ‪ . Command / Retranslate‬ﻟﻨﺠﮭﺰ‬
‫ﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺑﯿﺎﻧﻲ ﻗﺒﻞ إﻋﺎدة إﺟﺮاء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪ ،‬ﻟﻨﺨﺘﺎر ‪Window / Simulation Window / Plot‬‬
‫‪ Window‬ﺛﻢ ﻓﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺗﺤﺮﯾﺮ اﻟﺮﺳﻮﻣﺎت ‪ Edit Plot Window‬أدﺧﻞ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ‬
‫اﻟﺮﺳﻢ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪،‬‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺗﺤﺮﯾﺮ اﻟﺮﺳﻮﻣﺎت‬
‫‪539‬‬
‫‪.‬ﺳﻮف ﻧﺮﺳﻢ طﺎﺑﻮر اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ وﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﺘﺼﻠﯿﺢ ﻋﻠﻲ ﻧﻔﺲ اﻟﺮﺳﻢ‪ ،‬إﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻲ ‪ Plot‬و ﻋﻠﻲ‬
‫‪ Memorize‬ﺛﻢ أدﺧﻞ اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺮاد رﺳﻤﮭﺎ‪ ،‬اﻛﺘﺐ ‪ Maintenance Util‬ﻓﻲ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺮﻣﺰ و ‪ FR$Maintenance‬ﻓﻲ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﻌﺒﺎرة ﺛﻢ اﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻲ ‪ Plot‬و ‪ Memorize‬ﺛﻢ‬
‫‪ .OK‬ﻛﺒﺮ ﻗﻠﯿﻼ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة ﺑﺤﯿﺚ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪﺗﮭﺎ ﺑﻮﺿﻮح ﺛﻢ اﺧﺘﺎر ‪Command / START‬‬
‫وﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار ﺑﺪل ‪ 1‬ﺑﺎﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ ‪ 5‬ﺛﻢ ‪OK‬‬
‫رﺳﻢ ﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر اﻟﻔﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬
‫واﺿﺢ ان اﻟﻮرﺷﺔ اﺻﺒﺤﺖ ﻣﻠﯿﺌﺔ ﺑﺎﻷﺟﮭﺰة واﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﯾﻌﻤﻞ ﺑﺪون ﺗﻮﻗﻒ‪ .‬ﻟﻨﻨﻈﺮ اﻟﻲ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة اﺧﺮى‪،‬‬
‫أﻗﻔﻞ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺮﺳﻮﻣﺎت و اﻓﺘﺢ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻼت‪ ،‬اﺧﺘﺎر ‪Window / Simulation Window‬‬
‫‪ / Facilities Window‬ﻻﺣﻆ ان ھﺬه اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة ﺗﺆﻛﺪ اﻟﻔﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ واﻟﺘﻲ رأﯾﻨﺎھﺎ ﺗﻮا و اﻷﯾﻘﻮﻧﺔ‬
‫)‪ (icon‬ﺗﺒﯿﻦ طﺎﺑﻮر طﻮﯾﻞ ﻟﻠﻮظﺎﺋﻒ اﻟﻤﻨﺘﻈﺮة‪ ،‬ﺣﻮاﻟﻲ ‪ 62‬وظﯿﻔﺔ‪ ،‬اﺧﺘﺎر ‪Window /‬‬
‫‪ Simulation Window / Table Window‬ﻟﻜﻞ ﺟﺪول ﺗﺮﯾﺪ ان ﺗﺮاه وأﺧﺘﺎر إﺳﻢ اﻟﺠﺪول‬
‫اﻟﻤﻨﺎﺳﺐ‪ Overhaul ،‬أو ‪ Alljobs‬أو ‪ Spot‬أو ‪ Service‬ﻣﻦ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار اﻟﺬي ﯾﻈﮭﺮ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﻈﺎھﺮ ان ﻋﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﺘﺼﻠﯿﺢ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﺟﺔ اﻟﻲ ﻣﺴﺎﻋﺪة إذا اﺳﺘﻤﺮت اﻟﻮظﺎﺋﻒ ﺗﺼﻞ ﺑﮭﺬا اﻟﻤﻌﺪل وإﻻ‬
‫ﻓﺈن اﻟﻮرﺷﺔ ﺳﺘﻔﻘﺪ اﻟﻜﺜﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‪.‬‬
‫‪540‬‬
‫‪ -5‬ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻧﻈﺎم اﻟﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﻓﻲ ﺟﻮدة‬
‫ﺗﺼﻨﻊ ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﻋﻦ طﺮﯾﻖ ﻣﺘﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺎت‪ ،‬ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﮭﺎ ﺗﺘﺒﻊ ﺑﺪﻗﯿﻘﺘﯿﻦ ﻟﻠﻔﺤﺺ‪ .‬اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺔ اﻷوﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺗﺤﺘﺎج إﻟﻰ ‪ 20%‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﻄﻊ ﻟﯿﻌﺎد ﺗﺼﻨﯿﻌﮭﺎ‪ .‬اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺘﯿﻦ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﯿﺔ واﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ ﺗﺤﺘﺎج ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﮭﻤﺎ إﻟﻰ ‪ 15%‬و‬
‫‪ 5%‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﻄﻊ ﻟﯿﻌﺎد ﺗﺼﻨﯿﻌﮭﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﻮاﻟﻲ‪ 60% .‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﻄﻊ اﻟﻤﻌﺎد ﺗﺼﻨﯿﻌﮭﺎ ﺗﻜﻮن ﺗﺎﻟﻔﮫ و ﺗﻨﺒﺬ‬
‫‪ ، scrapped‬واﻟـ ‪ 40%‬اﻟﺒﺎﻗﯿﺔ ﺗﺤﺘﺎج اﻟﻲ إﻋﺎدة ﻣﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻢ ﻣﻨﮭﺎ اﻟﺮﻓﺾ‪.‬‬
‫ﺻﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﺟﺪﯾﺪة ﯾﺘﻢ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻛﻞ ‪ 30‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ ﺑﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﺳﻲ‪ .‬اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻠﯿﺔ اﻻوﻟﻰ ﯾﻌﻄﻰ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪Time For First Process‬‬
‫‪Frequency‬‬ ‫‪.05 .13 .16 .22 .29 .15‬‬
‫‪Process time (mins) 10 14 21 32 38 45‬‬
‫اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺔ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﯿﺔ ﺗﺴﺘﻐﺮق ‪ 15±6‬دﻗﺎﺋﻖ وزﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺔ اﻷﺧﯿﺮة ﻟﮫ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ طﺒﯿﻌﻲ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 24‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ و‬
‫إﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﯿﺎري ‪ 4‬دﻗﺎﺋﻖ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺣﺎﻛﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺎت اﻟﺘﺼﻨﯿﻊ ﻟـ ‪ 100‬ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﻣﻜﺘﻤﻠﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪ -2‬ﻋﯿﻦ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ اﻵزم ﻟﺬﻟﻚ وﻋﺪد اﻟﻘﻄﻊ اﻟﻤﺮﻓﻮﺿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪; GPSS World Sample File - QCONTROL.GPS, by Gerard F. Cummings‬‬

‫*****************************************************************‬
‫*‬ ‫*‬
‫*‬ ‫‪Quality Control Program‬‬ ‫*‬
‫*‬ ‫‪Time units are in minutes‬‬ ‫*‬
‫*****************************************************************‬
‫‪RMULT‬‬ ‫‪93211‬‬
‫*‬ ‫‪Definitions‬‬
‫‪Transit‬‬ ‫‪TABLE‬‬ ‫‪M1,100,100,20‬‬ ‫‪;Transit Time‬‬
‫‪541‬‬
Process FUNCTION RN1,D7
0,0/.05,10/.18,14/.34,21/.56,32/.85,38/1.0,45
*****************************************************************
GENERATE (Exponential(1,0,30))
ASSIGN 1,FN$Process ;Process time in P1
Stage1 SEIZE Machine1
ADVANCE P1 ;Process 1
RELEASE Machine1
ADVANCE 2 ;Inspection
TRANSFER .200,,Rework1 ;20% Need rework
*****************************************************************
ADVANCE 15,6 ;Process 2
RELEASE Machine2
*****************************************************************
ADVANCE (Normal(1,24,4)) ;Process 3
RELEASE Machine3
ADVANCE 2 ;Inspection 3
TRANSFER .050,,Rework3 ;5% need rework
TABULATE Transit ;Record transit time
TERMINATE 1
*****************************************************************
Rework1 TRANSFER .400,,Stage1
TERMINATE
TERMINATE
TERMINATE
: ‫وﺻﻒ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‬
RMULT
‫ ﻋﻨﺪ اﻟﺤﺎﺟﺔ ﻹﺟﺮاء ﺗﻜﺮارات ﻟﻠﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻓﺈﻧﻨﺎ ﻧﻐﯿﺮ ﻧﻮاة‬. 1 ‫ﻟﺒﺪء ﻧﻮاة ﻣﻮﻟﺪ اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ رﻗﻢ‬
.‫ﻣﻮﻟﺪ اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﻓﻘﻂ‬
542
‫‪TABLE‬‬
‫اﻟﺠﺪول اﻹﻧﺘﻘﺎﻟﻲ ‪ Table Transit‬ﺳﻮف ﯾﺠﻤﻊ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﻟﻠﻤﺪرج اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري واﻟﺬي ﺳﯿﺸﺎھﺪ‬
‫ﺗﻔﺎﻋﻠﯿﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪FUNCTION‬‬
‫داﻟﺔ ﻟﻐﺔ ‪ GPSS‬اﻟﻤﺴﻤﺎه ‪ PROCESS‬ﺗﻌﻄﻲ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ )إﻗﺮأ ﻣﻦ اﻟﯿﺴﺎر ﻟﻠﯿﻤﯿﻦ( ‪10, 14, 21,‬‬
‫‪32, 38, 45‬ﺑﺤﺴﺐ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻت اﻟﻤﻌﻄﺎة‪ .‬ﻻﺣﻆ اﻧﮫ ﻓﻲ دوال ‪ GPSS Functions‬ﯾﺠﺐ‬
‫‪ Cumulative Distribution Functions‬ﻟﺘﻌﯿﯿﻦ‬ ‫إﺳﺘﺨﺪام داﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺮاﻛﻤﻲ‬
‫اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻت‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﺼﻨﻊ ﻗﻄﻊ ﺟﺪﯾﺪة ﻛﻞ ‪ 30‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﺑﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﺳﻲ‪ .‬أﺳﺘﺨﺪﻣﻨﺎ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻷﺳﻲ اﻟﺪاﺧﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﻐﺔ‬
‫‪.GPSS‬‬
‫‪ASSIGN‬‬
‫زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﺼﻨﯿﻊ ﻟﻠﻤﺮﺣﻠﺔ اﻻوﻟﻰ ﻟﻠﻌﻤﻞ وﺿﻊ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻷول ‪ parameter number 1‬ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ‬
‫‪Transaction‬‬
‫‪SEIZE‬‬
‫اﻟﻌﻤﻞ او اﻟﻮظﯿﻔﺔ ﺗﻤﺘﻠﻚ أو ﺗﻨﺘﻈﺮ ﻛﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ ‪ Facility Entity‬اﻟﻤﺴﻤﻲ ‪Machine1‬‬
‫‪ADVANCE‬‬
‫ﺗﺒﻘﻲ اﻟﻮظﯿﻔﺔ ‪ Machine1‬ﻣﺸﻐﻮﻟﺔ ﺑﻤﻘﺪار اﻟﺰﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺰن ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻷول ‪parameter 1‬‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻤﻤﺜﻞ ﻟﻠﻮظﯿﻔﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪RELEASE‬‬
‫‪543‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻤﻤﺜﻞ ﻟﻠﻮظﯿﻔﺔ ﯾﺘﺮك ‪ Machine1‬واﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ﻋﻨﺪﺋﺬ إﺷﻐﺎﻟﮭﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻤﻨﺘﻈﺮ إذا‬
‫وﺟﺪ‪.‬‬
‫‪ADVANCE‬‬
‫اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪ ADVANCE Block‬ﯾﺤﺎﻛﻲ زﻣﻦ اﻟﻔﺤﺺ‪.‬‬
‫ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ TRANSFER Block‬ﺳﻮف ﯾﺨﺘﺎر ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ‪ 20%‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ ﻟﯿﺬھﺐ إﻟﻰ‬
‫اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ اﻟﻤﺮﻣﺰ ‪ . Rework1‬ھﺬا ﯾﻤﺜﻞ ﻓﺸﻞ اﻟﻘﻄﻌﺔ اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺠﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ . Stage1‬اﻟـ ‪ 80%‬ﻣﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ اﻻﺧﺮ ﯾﺴﺘﻤﺮوا ﻟﻠﻤﺮﺣﻠﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪SEIZE‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﺬي ﻣﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻔﺤﺺ ﯾﺘﻤﻠﻚ او ﯾﻨﺘﻈﺮ اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ ‪ Facility Entity‬اﻟﻤﺴﻤﺎة ‪.Machine2‬‬
‫‪ADVANCE‬‬
‫اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪ ADVANCE Block‬ﯾﺤﺎﻛﻲ زﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺮﺣﻠﺔ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﯿﺔ ‪.stage 2‬‬
‫‪RELEASE‬‬
‫وﺟﺪ‪.‬‬
‫‪ADVANCE‬‬
‫‪544‬‬
‫ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ TRANSFER Block‬ﺳﻮف ﯾﺨﺘﺎر ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ‪ 15%‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ ﻟﯿﺬھﺐ إﻟﻰ‬
‫اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ اﻟﻤﺮﻣﺰ ‪ . Rework2‬ھﺬا ﯾﻤﺜﻞ ﻓﺸﻞ اﻟﻘﻄﻌﺔ اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺠﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ . Stage2‬اﻟـ ‪ 85%‬ﻣﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ اﻻﺧﺮ ﯾﺴﺘﻤﺮوا ﻟﻠﻤﺮﺣﻠﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪SEIZE‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﺬي ﻣﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻔﺤﺺ ﯾﺘﻤﻠﻚ او ﯾﻨﺘﻈﺮ اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ ‪ Facility Entity‬اﻟﻤﺴﻤﺎة ‪.Machine3‬‬
‫‪ADVANCE‬‬
‫اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪ ADVANCE Block‬ﯾﺤﺎﻛﻲ زﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺮﺣﻠﺔ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﯿﺔ ‪ .stage 3‬اﻟﺰﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﻐﺮق ﻣﻮزع‬
‫طﺒﯿﻌﯿﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪RELEASE‬‬
‫وﺟﺪ‪.‬‬
‫‪ADVANCE‬‬
‫‪ 5%‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ ﻟﯿﺬھﺐ إﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ TRANSFER Block‬ﺳﻮف ﯾﺨﺘﺎر ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ‬
‫‪ 95%‬ﻣﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ اﻟﻤﺮﻣﺰ ‪ . Rework3‬ھﺬا ﯾﻤﺜﻞ ﻓﺸﻞ اﻟﻘﻄﻌﺔ اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺠﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ . stage 3‬اﻟـ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ اﻻﺧﺮ ﯾﻤﺜﻠﻮا اﻟﻘﻄﻊ اﻟﻤﻜﺘﻤﻠﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪545‬‬
‫ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ TABULATE Block‬ﯾﻀﯿﻒ زﻣﻦ اﻹﻛﻤﺎل اﻟﻰ اﻟﻤﺪرج اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري اﻟﺨﺎص ﺑﺎﻟﺠﺪول‬
‫اﻟﻤﺴﻤﻰ ‪ ، Transit‬ﺗﻜﺘﺐ اﻟﺠﺪاول ﺗﻠﻘﺎﺋﯿﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ اﻟﻤﻌﯿﺎري وﺗﺸﺎھﺪ ﻛﻤﺪرﺟﺎت ﺗﻜﺮارﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻧﻮاﻓﺬ اﻟﺠﺪاول ﻛﻞ ﻋﻠﻲ ﺣﺪة‪.‬‬
‫ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ TERMINATE Block‬ﯾﻨﮭﻲ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ وﯾﻨﻘﺺ ﻋﺪاد اﻹﻧﮭﺎء‪ .‬ﯾﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻋﺪد ﻣﻌﯿﻦ‬
‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﻄﻊ اﻟﻤﻜﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻋﺪاد ﻗﻄﻊ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ‪ ( operand A) A‬ﻣﻦ ﻋﺒﺎرة ‪START‬‬
‫‪.statement‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﻔﺸﻞ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ )ﻗﻄﻌﺔ( ﻓﺤﺺ اﻟﻘﻄﻊ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺮﺣﻠﺔ اﻻوﻟﻰ ﻓﺈن ﻟﮫ إﺣﺘﻤﺎل ‪ 40%‬ﻓﻲ ان ﯾﻌﺎد‬
‫إﻟﻰ اﻟﻤﺮﺣﻠﺔ اﻻوﻟﻰ‪ .‬وھﺬا ﯾﻤﺜﻞ ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﯾﻌﺎد ﺗﺼﻨﯿﻌﮭﺎ‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ اﻵﺧﺮﯾﻦ ﯾﺘﻢ إﻧﮭﺎﺋﮭﻢ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﺪون إﻧﻘﺎص ﻋﺪاد اﻟﻘﻄﻊ اﻟﻤﻜﻤﻠﺔ‪ .‬وھﺬا ﯾﻤﺜﻞ ﻧﺒﺬ‬
‫‪ scrapping‬اﻟﻘﻄﻊ‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﻔﺸﻞ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ )ﻗﻄﻌﺔ( ﻓﺤﺺ اﻟﻘﻄﻊ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺮﺣﻠﺔ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﯿﺔ وﯾﺮﺳﻞ اﻟﻰ ھﺬا اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ‬
‫‪ TRANSFER Block‬ﯾﻜﻮن ﻟﮫ إﺣﺘﻤﺎل ‪ 40%‬ﻓﻲ ان ﯾﻌﺎد اﻟﻰ اﻟﻤﺮﺣﻠﺔ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﯿﺔ‪ . .‬وھﺬا ﯾﻤﺜﻞ‬
‫ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﯾﻌﺎد ﺗﺼﻨﯿﻌﮭﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪546‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﻔﺸﻞ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ )ﻗﻄﻌﺔ( ﻓﺤﺺ اﻟﻘﻄﻊ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺮﺣﻠﺔ اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ ﻓﺈن ﻟﮫ إﺣﺘﻤﺎل ‪ 40%‬ﻓﻲ ان ﯾﻌﺎد إﻟﻰ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺮﺣﻠﺔ اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ‪ .‬وھﺬا ﯾﻤﺜﻞ ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﯾﻌﺎد ﺗﺼﻨﯿﻌﮭﺎ‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﻣﻨﻈﻢ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺪة أﺟﺰاء‪ .‬ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻌﺮﯾﻒ ﺟﺪول إﻧﺘﻘﺎﻟﻲ ‪ Transit Table‬وداﻟﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺔ‬
‫‪ Process Function‬ﻧﺠﺪ اﻧﮫ ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ أﺟﺰاء ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮذج ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﮭﺎ ﯾﻤﺜﻞ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺔ ﺗﺼﻨﯿﻊ‪ .‬ﻛﻞ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﯾﻤﺜﻞ ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ اﺣﺪ ﻣﺮاﺣﻞ اﻟﺘﺼﻨﯿﻊ‪ .‬وﺣﺪات اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ھﻲ اﻟﺪﻗﺎﺋﻖ‪ .‬ﻛﻞ ﺧﻄﻮة ﻟﮭﺎ إﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻت‬
‫ﻓﺸﻞ‪ ،‬واﻟﻠﺘﻲ ﻓﻲ ھﺬه اﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﯾﺮﺳﻞ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ إﻟﻰ أﺣﺪ اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ اﻟﻤﺮﻣﺰة ‪ Rework1‬أو ‪Rework2‬‬
‫أو ‪ Rework3‬ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﻮاﻟﻲ‪ .‬اﻟﻘﻄﻊ اﻟﻤﻌﺎد ﺗﺼﻨﯿﻌﮭﺎ ﻟﮭﺎ إﺣﺘﻤﺎل ‪ 60%‬ﻓﻲ ان ﺗﻨﺒﺬ وإﻻ ﺗﻌﯿﺪ‬
‫ﺧﻄﻮﺗﮭﺎ اﻷﺧﯿﺮة‪.‬‬
‫‪ File / Open‬وﻣﻦ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار ﻧﺨﺘﺎر‬ ‫ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺮﺋﯿﺴﯿﺔ ﻧﺨﺘﺎر‬

‫‪QCONTROL‬وﻧﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ Open‬وﻣﻦ ﺛﻢ ﯾﺠﺐ ﺧﻠﻖ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﺈﺧﺘﯿﺎر ‪Command /‬‬
‫‪ Create Simulation‬ﺛﻢ ﻧﺨﺘﺎر ‪ Command / START‬ﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار ﺑﺪل ‪ 1‬ﺑـ‬
‫‪ 100‬ﺛﻢ إﺿﻐﻂ ‪OK‬‬
‫ﺗﻨﺘﮭﻲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﺪﺧﻞ ‪ 100‬ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ‪ Transactions‬ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪TERMINATE Block‬‬

‫وھﺬا ﯾﻤﺜﻞ ‪ 100‬ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﻣﺼﻨﻌﺔ ﻛﺎﻣﻠﺔ‪ .‬ﻛﺎﻟﻤﻌﺘﺎد ﯾﻜﺘﺐ ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺮ ﻣﻌﯿﺎري اﻟﻰ اﻟﻤﻠﻒ ‪QControl.1.1‬‬
‫‪ .‬ھﺬا اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ ﯾﻈﮭﺮ اﯾﻀﺎ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺗﻠﻘﺎﺋﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﻘﺎرﯾﺮ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻦ زﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﮭﺎء ‪ End Time‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ اﻟﻤﻌﯿﺎري ﻧﺮى اﻧﮫ اﺳﺘﻐﺮق ‪ 4153.8‬دﻗﺎﺋﻖ أو ﺣﻮاﻟﻲ‬
‫‪ 69‬ﺳﺎﻋﺔ ﻹﻛﻤﺎل ‪ 100‬ﻗﻄﻌﺔ‪ .‬ﻣﻦ ﺗﻌﺪاد دﺧﻮل اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ ‪ Block entry counts‬ﻧﺴﺘﻄﯿﻊ إﯾﺠﺎد‬
‫‪547‬‬
‫ﻋﺪد اﻟﻘﻄﻊ اﻟﻤﺮﻓﻮﺿﺔ‪ .‬اﻟﻌﺪد اﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻟﺪﺧﻮل اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ ‪ Rework1‬و ‪ Rework2‬و ‪Rework3‬‬
‫ﯾﺒﯿﻦ ان ھﻨﺎك ‪ 22‬ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﻓﺸﻠﺖ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺮﺣﻠﺔ اﻻوﻟﻰ و ‪ 14‬ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﻓﺸﻠﺖ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺮﺣﻠﺔ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﯿﺔ و ‪ 4‬ﻗﻄﻊ‬
‫ﻓﺸﻠﺖ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺮﺣﻠﺔ اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ‪ .‬ھﺬا ﯾﺸﻜﻞ ‪ 40‬ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﻓﺎﺷﻠﺔ ﻣﻨﮭﺎ ‪ (11+7+3) 21‬ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﻧﺒﺬت‪.‬‬
‫ﻟﻨﺴﺘﻜﺸﻒ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻮﻟﺪ ﻋﻨﺪھﺎ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ اﻟﻤﻌﯿﺎري اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‪ .‬ﻟﻨﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻷﻣﺮ‬
‫‪System Numeric‬‬ ‫‪ SHOW Command‬ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺮ إﻟﻰ ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﺼﻔﺎت اﻟﻌﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم‬
‫‪ .Attributes‬اوﻻ ﻟﻨﺘﺄﻛﺪ ﻣﻦ زﻣﻦ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻟﻨﺨﺘﺎر ‪ Command / SHOW‬وﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار أﻛﺘﺐ ‪ AC1‬ﺛﻢ اﺿﻐﻂ ‪ OK‬ﻓﻲ ﺳﻄﺮ اﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ‪ Status Line‬ﺳﻨﺸﺎھﺪ ان اﻟﺰﻣﻦ‬
‫اﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ ﻣﺴﺎوﯾﺎ زﻣﻦ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‪ .‬ﻟﻨﺨﺘﺎر ‪ Command / SHOW‬وﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار أﻛﺘﺐ ‪ N$Rework1‬ﺛﻢ اﺿﻐﻂ ‪ ، OK‬ھﺬه اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ )‪ (22‬ھﻮ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻘﻄﻊ اﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫ﻓﺸﻠﺖ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺮﺣﻠﺔ اﻻوﻟﻰ‪.‬‬
‫ﻟﻨﺸﺎھﺪ ﺑﻌﺾ ﻧﻮاﻓﺬ اﻟﺮﺳﻮﻣﺎت‪ ،‬ﻟﻨﺨﺘﺎر‬
‫ھﺬه ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻼت‪ .‬ﻻﺣﻆ ان ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ ‪ Machine1‬ﻋﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﺟﺪا واﻧﮫ ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﻋﺪد ﻛﺒﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﻄﻊ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻨﺘﻈﺮة‪ ،‬ﯾﺒﺪوا أن ﻣﻌﺪل اﻟﻔﺸﻞ ﻋﻨﺪ ‪ Machine1‬ﻣﺜﯿﺮ ﻟﻠﻘﻠﻖ ﻷﻧﮫ ﯾﺤﻤﻞ ھﺬا اﻟﻤﺼﺪر اﻟﻤﺸﻐﻮل‬
‫ﺟﺪا اﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻤﺎ ﯾﻄﯿﻘﮫ‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﺠﺪول ‪ Table Transit‬ھﻮ ﻣﺪرج ﺗﻜﺮاري ﻷزﻣﻨﺔ اﻹﻛﻤﺎل‪ ،‬ﻟﻨﻨﻈﺮ إﻟﯿﮫ ﺑﺈﺧﺘﯿﺎر‬
‫وﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار ﺳﻨﺮى ﻛﻠﻤﺔ ‪ Transit‬ﻓﻘﻂ ﺣﯿﺚ اﻧﮫ ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﺟﺪول واﺣﺪ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻧﻀﻐﻂ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ‪OK‬‬
‫ﺑﺮﻏﻢ ان ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﮭﺎء ﻛﺎن ‪ 321‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ اﻻ ان ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﻘﻄﻊ اﺧﺬ اﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ‪ 800‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‪ .‬اﻵن‬
‫أﻗﻔﻞ ﻧﻮاﻓﺬ اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻼت واﻟﺠﺪاول‪.‬‬
‫اﻧﻨﻈﺮ اﻵن أﯾﻦ اﻟﻘﻄﻊ؟ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ ﺳﻮف ﺗﻌﻄﯿﻨﺎ ھﺬه اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‪ .‬ﻟﻨﺨﺘﺎر‬
‫‪548‬‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ اﻧﮫ ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ‪ 30‬ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﺗﻨﺘﻈﺮ ‪ Machine1‬ﻓﻲ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ . ASSIGN‬ﺳﻮف ﻧﺠﻠﺮي اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺟﺪﯾﺪ وﻟﻨﺸﺎھﺪھﺎ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼل ﺑﻌﺾ ﻧﻮاﻓﺬ اﻟﺮﺳﻮﻣﺎت‪ .‬ﻟﻨﺒﺪأ ﺑﻔﺘﺢ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻌﺒﺎرات وﻧﻌﺒﺌﮭﺎ ﺑﺒﻌﺾ اﻟﻘﯿﻢ‬
‫اﻟﺘﻲ ﻧﺮﻏﺐ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺘﮭﺎ‪ .‬ﻟﻨﺒﻘﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ ﻣﻔﺘﻮﺣﮫ ﻟﻜﻲ ﻧﺸﺎھﺪ إﻧﺴﯿﺎب اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة وﻧﻔﺘﺢ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة‬
‫اﻟﺘﻌﺎﺑﯿﺮ ﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪت ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﻤﺨﺘﺎرة ﺑﯿﻨﻤﺎ ﺗﺠﺮى اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪ .‬ﻟﻨﺨﺘﺎر‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق ﺗﺤﺮﯾﺮ اﻟﻌﺒﺎرات وﻓﻲ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﺮﻣﺰ أﻛﺘﺐ ‪ Rework1‬وﻓﻲ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﺘﻌﺒﯿﺮ أﻛﺘﺐ‬
‫‪ N$Rework1‬ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﻧﺸﺎھﺪ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة ﺳﻮف ﻧﺮى ﻛﻢ ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ارﺳﻠﺖ ﻹﻋﺎدة ﺗﺼﻨﯿﻌﮭﺎ ﻻﺣﻆ ان ﺟﺰء‬
‫ﻣﻨﮭﺎ ﺳﻮف ﯾﻨﺒﺬ‪ .‬اﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ View‬و ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ Memorize‬ﺛﻢ اﻧﻈﺮ اﻟﻰ إﻋﺎدة اﻟﺘﺼﻨﯿﻊ ﺑﻌﺪ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ ﺑﺎﻵﻟﺔ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﯿﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺗﺤﺮﯾﺮ اﻟﻌﺒﺎرات وﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار اﺳﺘﺒﺪل اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺤﻠﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺧﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﺮﻣﺰ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ ‪ Rework2‬وﻓﻲ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﺘﻌﺒﯿﺮ اﺳﺘﺒﺪل اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﺑـ ‪N$Rework2‬‬
‫أﺧﯿﺮا أﻧﻈﺮ اﻟﻰ إﻋﺎدة اﻟﺘﺼﻨﯿﻊ ﺑﻌﺪ اﻟﻤﻌﺎﻟﺠﺔ ﺑﺎﻵﻟﺔ اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻌﺒﺎرات ﻛﺎﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺑﺪل اﻟﺮﻣﺰ ﺑـ‬
‫‪ Rework3‬واﻟﺘﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺑـ ‪ N$Rework3‬ﺛﻢ اﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ View‬و ‪ . Memorize‬ھﺬا‬
‫ﺳﯿﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪت اﻟﻘﻄﻊ اﻟﻔﺎﺷﻠﺔ‪ ،‬اﯾﻀﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ ﺳﻮف ﻧﺸﺎھﺪ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ اﻟﻔﺎﺷﻠﯿﻦ‬
‫اﻟﺪاﺧﻠﯿﻦ ﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ ‪ Rework1‬و ‪ Rework2‬و ‪Rework3‬‬
‫ﻟﻨﻨﻈﺮ اﻟﻰ رﻗﻢ اﻟﻘﻄﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻨﺸﻂ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار وﻓﻲ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﺮﻣﺰ أﻛﺘﺐ ‪Part‬‬
‫‪ number‬وﻓﻲ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﻌﺒﺎرات أﻛﺘﺐ ‪ XN1‬اﺿﻐﻂ ‪ View‬و ‪ Memorize‬ﺛﻢ ‪OK‬‬
‫ﻟﻨﺘﺨﻠﺺ ﻣﻦ ﻛﻞ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ وﻧﺼﻔﺮ اﻟﻌﺪادات اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ‪ .‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﺎﺋﻤﺔ اﻟﺮﺋﯿﺴﯿﺔ ﻧﺨﺘﺎر‬

‫‪ Command / Clear‬و ‪ . OK‬اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ ‪ Part no.‬ﻟﻢ ﺗﺼﻔﺮ ﻷﻧﮭﺎ ﻻ ﺗﺘﺄﺛﺮ ﺑﻸﻣﺮ ‪ Clear‬ﺳﻮف‬
‫ﺗﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﺑﻤﺠﺮد ﺑﺪء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪ .‬ﺣﺮك اﻓﺬﺗﻲ اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ واﻟﺘﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﺤﯿﺚ ﺗﻈﮭﺮ ﻣﻌﺎ‪ .‬ﻧﺨﺘﺎر ‪Command‬‬
‫‪ / START‬وﺑﺪل ‪ 1‬ﺑـ ‪ 50‬ﺛﻢ ‪OK‬‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ ﻧﺎﻓﺬﺗﻲ اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ واﻟﺘﻌﺒﯿﺮ‪ .‬أﻛﺘﺐ ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺎﺗﻚ؟‬
‫اﻵن اﻗﻔﻞ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﻌﺎﺑﯿﺮ‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﻻﺣﻈﺖ ﻓﺈن ﻣﻌﻈﻢ اﻟﻘﻄﻊ ﻟﻢ ﺗﻔﺸﻞ‪ .‬دﻋﻨﺎ ﻧﻮﻗﻒ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻋﻨﺪ ﺣﺪوث‬
‫ﻓﺸﻞ ﻟﻘﻄﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺮﺣﻠﺔ اﻷوﻟﻰ‪ .‬أوﻗﻒ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪ (Ctrl+Alt+H) Halt‬وﻓﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ ﻧﺨﺘﺎر‬
‫‪ View / Entity Details‬ﻟﻜﻲ ﻧﺤﻮل اﻟﻲ اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪة اﻟﻤﺨﺘﺼﺮة‪ ،‬ﺿﻊ ﻣﺆﺷﺮ اﻟﻔﺎرة ﻋﻠﻲ اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ‬
‫‪549‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺮﻣﺰ ‪ Rework1‬وأﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﯿﮫ ﻓﯿﺼﺒﺢ ﻣﺨﺘﺎرا )ﯾﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻟﻮﻧﮫ( ﺛﻢ اﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ Place‬ﻓﻲ ﺳﻄﺮ‬
‫اﻷدوات‪ .‬إﺳﺘﻤﺮ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﺎﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻲ )‪ . (Ctrl+Alt+C‬ﺳﺘﺘﻮﻗﻒ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻋﻨﺪ ﻓﺸﻞ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪ ‪ Rework1‬اﻵن اﺟﺮى اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺧﻄﻮة ﺧﻄﻮة ﺑﺎﻟﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ )‪ (Ctrl+Alt+1‬ﻣﺮﺗﯿﻦ‪ .‬اﻵن‬
‫ﻗﻢ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﺑﻨﻔﺴﻚ‪ .‬ﺟﺮب ﺑﺪاﺋﻞ اﺧﺮى ودون ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺎﺗﻚ؟‬
‫‪550‬‬
:‫ ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻧﻈﺎم ﺗﺨﺰﯾﻦ ﺑﻨﻘﻄﺔ طﻠﺐ‬-6
‫ وﻛﻤﯿﺔ طﻠﺐ‬،‫ وﺣﺪة‬600 ‫ وﺿﻌﺖ ﻋﻨﺪ‬، order point ‫ﻧﻈﺎم ﺗﺨﺰﯾﻦ ﺗﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﺑﮫ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ طﻠﺐ‬
.‫ وﺣﺪة‬700 ‫ ﻛﻤﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻷوﻟﯿﺔ‬.‫ وﺣﺪة‬500 ‫ ﻣﻦ‬economic order quantity ‫إﻗﺘﺼﺎدﯾﺔ‬
‫ ﻣﻦ‬lead time ‫ زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻘﺪم‬.‫ وﺣﺪة ﻣﻮزﻋﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺴﺎوي‬63 ‫ إﻟﻰ‬40 ‫اﻟﻄﻠﺐ اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺠﺎل‬
.‫ أﯾﺎم‬5 ‫اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺣﺘﻲ ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻞ اﻟﺒﻀﺎﺋﻊ‬
‫ ﯾﻮم‬100 ‫ﺣﺎﻛﻲ ﻧﻈﺎم اﻟﺘﺨﺰﯾﻦ ﻟﻤﺪة‬
‫ﻋﯿﻦ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون واﻟﻤﺒﯿﻌﺎت اﻟﯿﻮﻣﯿﺔ اﻟﻔﻌﻠﯿﺔ‬
; GPSS World Sample File - ORDERPNT.GPS, by Gerard F. Cummings

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* *
* Order Point Inventory System *
* *
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* Initialize and define
INITIAL X$EOQ,500 ;Economic order qty.
INITIAL X$Point,600 ;Order point
INITIAL X$Stock,700 ;Set initial stock=700
Inventory TABLE X$Stock,0,50,20 ;Table of stock levels
Sales TABLE P$Demand,38,2,20 ;Table of sales levels
Var2 VARIABLE RN1@24+40
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GENERATE ,,,1
Again TEST L X$Stock,X$Point ;Order placed on successful
test
ADVANCE 5 ;Lead time = 1 week
SAVEVALUE Stock+,X$EOQ ;Economic order
TRANSFER ,Again ;Cycle transaction again
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GENERATE 1 ;Daily demand xact
ASSIGN Demand,V$Var2 ;Assign daily demand
TABULATE Inventory ;Record inventory
TEST GE X$Stock,P$Demand ;Make sure order can be filled
551
‫‪SAVEVALUE‬‬ ‫‪Stock-,P$Demand‬‬ ‫‪;Remove demand from stock‬‬
‫‪SAVEVALUE‬‬ ‫‪Sold,P$Demand‬‬ ‫‪;X$Sold=Daily demand‬‬
‫‪TABULATE‬‬ ‫‪Sales‬‬ ‫‪;Record daily sales‬‬
‫‪TERMINATE 1‬‬ ‫‪;Daily timer‬‬
‫*********************************************************************‬
‫اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﻣﺮﺗﺐ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺪة أﺟﺰاء‪ .‬ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ GENERATE‬اﻷول ﯾﻮﻟﺪ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻣﻔﺮد واﻟﺬي ﯾﻘﻮم‬
‫ﺑﺈﻋﺎدة اﻟﻄﻠﺐ‪ .‬ھﺬا اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﯾﻤﻀﻲ ﻣﻌﻈﻢ وﻗﺘﮫ ﺑﺈﻧﺘﻈﺎر اﻟﺪﺧﻮل ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ إﺧﺘﺒﺎر رﻓﺾ‬
‫‪ refuse mode TEST‬ﻣﺮﻣﺰ ‪ . Again‬ﻗﺎﻟﺐ اﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر ھﺬا ﯾﺸﻌﺮ ﺑﺤﺎﻟﺔ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ﻋﻨﻤﺎ‬
‫ﺗﻜﻮن ﺗﺤﺖ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ‪ .‬ﻋﻨﻤﺎ ﯾﻜﻮن ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ﺗﺤﺖ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻓﺈن اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻤﻨﺘﻈﺮ‬
‫ﯾﻤﺮ إﻟﻰ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ ADVANCE‬وﯾﻨﺘﻈﺮ ‪ 5‬أﯾﺎم وﯾﻀﯿﻒ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ إﻟﻰ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ﺛﻢ ﯾﻨﺘﻈﺮ ﻟﻠﻮﻗﺖ‬
‫اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻋﻨﻤﺎ ﯾﻜﻮن ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﺨﺰون أﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ‪.‬‬
‫ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ GENERATE‬اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﯾﻮﻟﺪ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ اﻟﯿﻮﻣﯿﺔ واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻤﺜﻞ طﻠﺒﺎت اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‪ .‬إذا ﻟﻢ ﯾﻜﻦ‬
‫ﻣﻤﻜﻨﺎ ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ طﻠﺐ ﯾﻤﻨﻊ دﺧﻮﻟﮫ إﻟﻰ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ . TEST‬ﯾﻤﻜﻨﻚ إﺣﺎطﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ إﺧﺘﺒﺎر رﻓﺾ ﺑﻘﻮاﻟﺐ‬
‫‪ QUEUE‬و ‪ DEPART‬إذا اردت ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺮا ﻋﻦ اﻟﺘﺄﺧﺮ ھﻨﺎك‪.‬‬
‫ﻟﻜﻲ ﻧﺠﺮي اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة وﻧﻮﻟﺪ ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺮا ﻣﻌﯿﺎري ﻧﺨﺘﺎر ‪ File / Open‬وﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار ﻧﺨﺘﺎر‬
‫‪ORDERPNT‬ﺛﻢ ‪ Open‬ﻗﺒﻞ ان ﻧﺒﺪأ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻟﻨﺠﮭﺰ رﺳﻢ ﻧﺸﺎھﺪ ﻣﻦ ﺧﻼﻟﮫ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﯾﻦ ﻓﻲ‬
‫اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‪ .‬ﻟﻜﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ ھﺬا ﯾﺠﺐ ﺧﻠﻖ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺣﺘﻲ ﻧﺴﺘﻄﯿﻊ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل إﻟﻰ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺮﺳﻢ‪ ،‬ﻧﺨﺘﺎر‬
‫‪ Command / Create Simulation‬ﺛﻢ ﻧﺨﺘﺎر‬
‫‪Window / Simulation Window / Plot Window‬‬
‫وﻓﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺗﺤﺮﯾﺮ اﻟﺮﺳﻮﻣﺎت أدﺧﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت ﻛﻤﺎ ھﻮ ﻣﺒﯿﻦ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
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‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﺮﺳﻢ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ وﻣﺴﺘﻮي اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ﻋﻠﻲ ﻧﻔﺲ اﻟﺮﺳﻢ‪ ) .‬ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ‪ :‬أدﺧﻞ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت‬
‫ﺑﺪون أن ﺗﻀﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻲ ﻣﻔﺘﺎح ‪ ( Enter‬إﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ Plot‬ﺛﻢ ‪ Memorize‬ﺛﻢ أدﺧﻞ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﻧﺮﯾﺪ رﺳﻤﮭﺎ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﺮﻣﺰ ﺑﺪل اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮدة ﺑـ ‪Inventory Level‬‬
‫وﻓﻲ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﺘﻌﺒﯿﺮ ﺑﺪل اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮدة ﺑـ ‪ X$Stock‬ﺛﻢ إﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ Plot‬و ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫‪ Memorize‬ﺛﻢ ‪ OK‬ﺣﺮك ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﯾﺠﻌﻠﮭﺎ ﺳﮭﻠﺔ اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪة اﺛﻨﺎء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺛﻢ إﺧﺘﺎر‬
‫‪ Command / START‬وﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار إﺳﺘﺒﺪل ‪ 1‬ﺑـ ‪ 100‬ﺛﻢ ‪OK‬‬
‫ﺗﻨﺘﮭﻲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﻌﺪ ﻣﺮور ‪ 100‬ﯾﻮم وﯾﻜﺘﺐ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ اﻟﻤﻌﯿﺎري إﻟﻰ اﻟﻤﻠﻒ ‪ Orderpnt.1.1‬ﻛﻤﺎ‬
‫ﯾﻌﺮض ﻓﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﻘﺎرﯾﺮ‪ .‬ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺮﺳﻢ ﺳﺘﺒﺪوا أﺛﻨﺎء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
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‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺮﺳﻮﻣﺎت‬
‫ﯾﺒﺪوا ﻣﻦ اﻟﺮﺳﻢ أن ﺗﺼﺮف ﻧﻈﺎم اﻟﻤﺨﺰون واﺿﺢ ﺣﯿﺚ ﻧﺸﺎھﺪ أن ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ﯾﺘﻐﯿﺮ‪.‬‬
‫ﺟﺪول اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ ﺗﺒﯿﻦ ان ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﺘﺨﺰﯾﻦ ﻟﻢ ﯾﻨﻘﺺ ﻋﻦ ‪ 300‬وﺣﺪة‪.‬‬
‫ﻟﻨﺴﺘﻜﺸﻒ اﻵن ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻮﻟﺪ ﻋﻨﺪھﺎ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‪ .‬ﻟﻨﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻷﻣﺮ ‪SHOW‬‬
‫ﻟﻨﻨﻈﺮ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ‪ Command / SHOW‬وﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار أﻛﺘﺐ‬
‫‪ TB$Inventory‬ﺛﻢ ‪OK‬‬
‫ھﺬا ﺳﯿﺒﯿﻦ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﺨﺰون‪ .‬وھﻮ ﻣﻘﯿﺎس ﻟﻜﻤﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺎل اﻟﻤﺮﺑﻮطﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون‪ .‬ﻋﻨﺪ ‪612‬‬
‫ﯾﺒﺪوا ﻧﺴﺒﯿﺎ ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻊ‪ .‬رﺑﻤﺎ ﻧﺴﺘﻄﯿﻊ ﺗﻮﻓﯿﺮ ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﻤﺎل ﺑﺘﻐﯿﯿﺮ ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼت ﻓﻲ ﻧﻈﺎم اﻟﺘﺨﺰﯾﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﻰ‪.‬‬
‫ﻟﻨﻨﻈﺮ إﻟﻰ ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﺮﺳﻮﻣﺎت‪ .‬أوﻻ ﺻﻐﺮ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺮﺳﻮم ﻷﻧﻨﺎ ﺳﻨﺤﺘﺎﺟﮭﺎ ﻻﺣﻘﺎ‪ .‬أﻓﺘﺢ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺟﺪول‬
‫اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ‪ Inventory Table‬إﺧﺘﺎر ‪Window / Simulation Window / Table‬‬
‫‪ Window‬وﺑﻤﺎ ان ‪ Inventory Table‬ﻣﻮﺟﻮدة ﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار إﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ . OK‬ھﺬه‬
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‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة ﺟﺪول ‪ Inventory Table‬ھﺬا اﻟﺠﺪول ﯾﺒﯿﻦ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ‪ .‬ﻟﻨﺮاﻗﺐ‬
‫ﻧﺸﺎط ﺑﻀﻌﺔ اﯾﺎم اﺧﺮى‪ ،‬ﻟﻨﺨﺘﺎر‬
‫‪ Command / START‬وﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار أﻛﺘﺐ ‪ 100,NP‬ﺛﻢ ‪ OK‬اﻗﻔﻞ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺠﺪول‬

‫وﻟﻨﻔﺘﺢ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ ‪ Window / Simulation Window / Blocks Window‬ﻧﻼﺣﻆ ان‬
‫ھﺬا اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﺑﺴﯿﻂ ﺟﺪا‪ .‬اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺰء اﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﯾﻨﺘﻈﺮ ﺷﺮط إﻋﺎدة طﻠﺐ‪ ،‬واﻟﺠﺰء اﻟﺴﻔﻠﻲ‬
‫ﯾﺨﻠﻖ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ ﯾﻤﺜﻠﻮا اﻟﻤﺒﯿﻌﺎت اﻟﯿﻮﻣﯿﺔ‪ .‬إﺟﺮ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻣﺮة اﺧﺮى وﻻﺣﻆ اﻹﻧﺴﯿﺎب ﻓﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة‬
‫اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ‪ .‬إﺧﺘﺎر ‪ Command / START‬وﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار أﻛﺘﺐ ‪ 50,NP‬ﺛﻢ ‪. OK‬‬
‫ﻟﻨﻐﯿﺮ ﺷﯿﺌﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻟﻨﺒﺪل ﻧﻘﻄﺔ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ إﻟﻰ ‪ 300‬ﺑﺪﻻ ﻣﻦ ‪ 600‬واﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻷوﻟﻲ إﻟﻰ ‪ 400‬ﺑﺪﻻ‬
‫ﺛﻢ‬ ‫ﻣﻦ ‪ ، 700‬ﻧﺨﺘﺎر ‪ Command / Custom‬وﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار أﻛﺘﺐ ‪Clear Off‬‬
‫‪ .OK‬اﻷﻣﺮ ‪ CLEAR‬ﯾﺰﯾﻞ ﻛﻞ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ ﻛﻤﺎ اﻧﺔ ﯾﺼﻔﺮ ﻛﻞ اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﻤﺤﻔﻮظﺔ ‪Savevalue‬‬
‫وﻟﻜﻦ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ ‪ Off‬ﺟﻌﻠﻨﺎة ﯾﺒﻘﻲ ﻋﻠﻲ اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﺤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﻤﺤﻔﻮظﺔ وﺳﻮف ﻧﻐﯿﺮ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺑﻌﺾ‬
‫اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﻤﺨﺘﺎرة ﻟﻠﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﻤﺤﻔﻮظﺔ ﻟﻨﺨﺘﺎر ‪ Command / Custom‬وﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار أﻛﺘﺐ‬
‫‪ INITIAL X$Point,300‬ﺛﻢ إﺿﻐﻂ ‪ Enter‬ﺛﻢ ﻓﻲ ﻧﻔﺲ اﻟﺼﻨﺪوق أﻛﺘﺐ ‪INITIAL‬‬
‫‪ X$Stock,400‬ﺛﻢ ‪ . OK‬ﻟﻢ ﻧﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻜﻤﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ إذ ﺳﺘﻈﻞ ‪ . 500‬ﻟﻨﻨﻈﺮ اﻟﻰ اﻟﺮﺳﻢ وﻧﺤﻦ‬
‫ﻧﺠﺮي اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪ ،‬أوﻻ اﻗﻔﻞ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ‪ .‬اﻷﻣﺮ ‪ CLEAR‬ﺻﻔﺮ اﻟﺮﺳﻢ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‪ ،‬ﻛﺒﺮ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺮﺳﻮم‬
‫وأﺑﺪأ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪ Command / START‬ﺛﻢ اﻛﺘﺐ ‪ 100,NP‬ﺛﻢ ‪ .OK‬ﻧﺤﺘﺎج ﻣﻌﺮﻓﺔ إذا ﻣﺎﺣﺪث‬
‫ﻧﻔﺎذ ﻣﺨﺰون ‪ stockout‬وھﺬا ﻧﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﯿﮫ ﻣﻦ ﻛﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﺠﺪول ‪ Inventory‬إﺧﺘﺎر ‪Window /‬‬
‫‪ Simulation Window / Table Window‬ﺛﻢ ‪OK‬‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ ان اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ﻟﻢ ﯾﻌﺎﻧﻲ اي ﻓﻘﺪ او ﺿﯿﺎع‪ .‬ھﺬا واﺿﺢ ﻷن ﻓﺌﺔ اﻟﺘﻜﺮار اﻟﻌﻠﯿﺎ اﻟﺘﻲ ﻗﯿﻤﺘﮭﺎ ‪0‬‬
‫ﻓﺎرﻏﺔ‪ .‬اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﺤﺪﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻔﺌﺎت اﻟﺘﻜﺮارﯾﺔ ﺗﻜﻮن ﻣﺸﻤﻮﻟﺔ داﺋﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﻤﻮد اﻟﺬي إﻟﻰ ﯾﺴﺎر اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ‪ .‬اﯾﻀﺎ‬
‫ﻧﺸﺎھﺪ ان ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ھﻮ ﻓﻘﻂ ‪ . 329.1‬وھﺬا ﺗﺤﺴﻦ ﺟﯿﺪ ﻋﻦ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‪ .‬ﻗﺒﻞ‬
‫ﺗﻘﺪﯾﻢ ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺮ ﻋﻦ ھﺬه اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﯾﺠﺐ ان ﻧﺒﺮھﻦ ان اﻟﻔﺮق ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذﺟﯿﻦ ﻟﻢ ﯾﺘﺄﺗﻰ ﺑﺎﻟﺼﺪﻓﺔ أي اﻧﺔ‬
‫ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﺑﺤﺖ‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ ﯾﺠﺐ اﻟﺘﺨﻠﺺ ﻣﻦ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ اﻟﺒﺪء ‪ starting conditions‬ﻣﻦ اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﺎت‬
‫اﻟﻨﮭﺎﺋﯿﺔ وذﻟﻚ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻷﻣﺮ ‪ RESET‬واﻟﺬي ﺳﻨﻨﺎﻗﺸﺔ ﻻﺣﻘﺎ ﻣﻊ اﻷﻣﺮ ‪. ANOVA‬‬
‫‪555‬‬
‫‪ -7‬ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻧﻈﺎم ﺗﺼﻨﯿﻊ ﻗﻄﻊ إﻟﻜﺘﺮوﻧﯿﺔ‬
‫ﻗﺴﻢ اﻟﺘﺼﻨﯿﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺷﺮﻛﺔ إﻟﻜﺘﺮوﻧﺎت ﯾﻘﻮم ﺑﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺳﺎﻋﺎت رﻗﻤﯿﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﻗﺴﻢ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ ﺗﻌﺒﺄ اﻟﺴﺎﻋﺎت‬
‫ﺑﺸﻜﻞ ﺗﻠﻘﺎﺋﻲ ﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ آﻟﺔ ﺗﻌﺒﺌﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻋﻠﺐ ﺟﺎھﺰة ﻟﻠﻌﺮض ﺑﺎﻟﻜﻤﯿﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﻄﻠﺒﮭﺎ اﻟﻤﻮزﻋﻮن‪ .‬ﺣﺠﻢ‬
‫اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﯾﻌﻄﻰ ﺑﺎﻟﺪاﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪Order Size‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪18‬‬ ‫‪24 30‬‬ ‫‪36 48‬‬
‫‪Frequency .10 .25 .30 .15 .12 .05 .03‬‬
‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﺑﯿﻦ وﺻﻮل اﻟﻄﻠﺒﺎت ‪ 15‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ ﻣﻮزع أﺳﯿﺎ‪ .‬زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻌﺒﺌﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ طﻠﺐ ‪ 120‬ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ إﻟﻰ ‪ 10‬ﺛﻮان ﻟﻜﻞ ﺳﺎﻋﺔ رﻗﻤﯿﺔ ﺗﻌﺒﺄ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ‪ .‬ﻗﺴﻢ اﻟﺘﺼﻨﯿﻊ ﯾﻨﺘﺞ اﻟﺴﺎﻋﺎت اﻟﺮﻗﻤﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺎت ﺑﺤﺠﻢ ‪ 60‬وﺣﺪة ﻓﻲ ‪ 455‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺣﺎﻛﻲ ‪ 5‬أﯾﺎم ﻣﻦ ﻧﺸﺎط اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻟﻜﻲ ﺗﻌﻄﻲ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻄﻠﺒﺎت اﻟﻤﻨﺘﻈﺮة ﻓﻲ ﻗﺴﻢ اﻟﺘﻌﺒﺌﺔ‬

‫‪ -2‬ﻛﻤﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﺎﻋﺎت اﻟﺮﻗﻤﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻮزﻋﺔ ﻛﻞ ﯾﻮم‬
‫‪ -3‬ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﻷوﻗﺎت اﻹﻧﺘﻘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ‪ transit times‬ﻟﻠﻄﻠﺒﺎت‬
‫‪; GPSS World Sample File - MANUFACT.GPS, by Gerard F. Cummings‬‬

‫*********************************************************************‬
‫*‬ ‫‪Manufacturing Company‬‬
‫*‬
‫*********************************************************************‬
‫*‬
‫*‬ ‫‪Time Unit is one hour‬‬
‫*‬
‫‪Sizeorder FUNCTION‬‬ ‫‪RN1,D7‬‬ ‫‪;Order size‬‬
‫‪.10,6/.35,12/.65,18/.80,24/.92,30/.97,36/1.0,48‬‬
‫‪Transit‬‬ ‫‪TABLE‬‬ ‫‪M1,.015,.015,20‬‬ ‫‪;Transit time‬‬
‫‪556‬‬
Number TABLE X1,100,100,20 ;No. packed each day
Ptime VARIABLE .0028#P1+0.0334 ;Packing time
Amount EQU 1000 ;Initial stock amount
Stock STORAGE 4000 ;Warehouse holds
; 4000 units
*********************************************************************
GENERATE (Exponential(1,0,0.25)) ;Order arrives
ASSIGN 1,1,Sizeorder ;P1=order size
TEST GE S$Stock,P1,Stockout ;Is stock sufficient?
LEAVE Stock,P1 ;Remove P1 from stock
QUEUE Packing
SEIZE Machine ;Get a machine
DEPART Packing
ADVANCE V$Ptime ;Packing time
RELEASE Machine ;Free the machine
SAVEVALUE 1+,P1 ;Accumulate no. packed
TERMINATE
Stockout TERMINATE
*********************************************************************
GENERATE 0.75,0.08334,1 ;Xact every 40+/-5 mins
ENTER Stock,60 ;Make 60, Stock
* increased by 60
Stockad TERMINATE
*********************************************************************
GENERATE 8 ;Xact every day
TABULATE Number
SAVEVALUE 1,0
TERMINATE 1
*********************************************************************
GENERATE ,,,1,10 ;Initial stock xact
ENTER Stock,Amount ;Set initial stock
TERMINATE
*********************************************************************
‫ ﺗﻮﺟﺪ‬Storage ‫ و‬variable ‫ و‬function ‫ ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻌﺮﯾﻒ اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت‬.‫اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﻣﻨﻈﻢ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺪة أﺟﺰاء‬

‫ واﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ‬،‫ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ ﻗﻲ اﻟﺠﺰء اﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﯾﻤﺜﻠﻮا اﻟﻄﻠﺒﺎت‬.‫أرﺑﻊ أﺟﺰاء ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‬
‫ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺰء‬،‫ ﺳﺎﻋﺔ رﻗﻤﯿﺔ إﻟﻰ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون‬60 ‫ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺰء اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﯾﻀﯿﻔﻮا ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺎت ﻣﻦ‬
557
‫اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﯾﺠﺪوﻟﻮا اﻟﻤﺒﯿﻌﺎت اﻟﯿﻮﻣﯿﺔ وﯾﻮﻗﺘﻮا زﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺤﻜﺎة اﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﺑﺎﻷﯾﺎم‪ ،‬واﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺰء اﻷﺧﯿﺮ‬
‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﯾﺴﺘﮭﻞ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﺨﺰون إﻟﻰ ‪ 1000‬وﺣﺪة‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻘﺎس وﺣﺪات اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﺎﻋﺎت‪ .‬ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ﻣﺜﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ ‪ ، S$Stock‬وھﻮ اﻟﻤﺤﺘﻮى‬
‫اﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻛﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ‪ Stock‬و ﻟﮭﺬا ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪم ‪ LEAVE‬ﻟﻜﻲ ﻧﺄﺧﺬ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون و‬
‫‪ ENTER‬ﻟﻜﻰ ﻧﻀﯿﻒ إﻟﯿﮫ‪ .‬اﻟﻄﻠﺒﺎت ﻏﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﻠﺒﺎة ھﻲ ﻣﺨﺰون ﻣﻨﺘﮭﻲ ‪ . stockouts‬ﻣﺴﺎﺣﺔ‬
‫ﺗﺨﺰﯾﻦ اﻟﺒﻀﺎﺋﻊ اﻟﻤﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﺗﻜﻔﻲ ﻟـ ‪ 4000‬وﺣﺪة‪ .‬ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﻤﻤﺜﻞ ﺑـ ‪ S$Stock‬ﯾﺴﺘﮭﻞ ﺑـ‬
‫‪ 1000‬وﺣﺪة ﻋﻨﺪ ﺑﺪاﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ذا اﻓﻀﻠﯿﺔ ﻋﻠﯿﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺰء اﻷﺧﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج‪.‬‬
‫ھﺬا اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺳﯿﻜﻮن أول ﻣﻦ ﯾﺘﺤﺮك ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪.‬‬
‫ﻟﻜﻲ ﻧﺠﺮي اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة وﻧﻮﻟﺪ ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺮ ﻣﻌﯿﺎري ﻧﺨﺘﺎر ‪ File / Open‬وﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار ﻧﺨﺘﺎر ‪MANUFACT‬‬
‫ﺛﻢ ﻧﻀﻐﻂ ‪ Open‬ﺛﻢ ﻧﺨﻠﻖ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﺎﻷﻣﺮ ‪ Command / Create Simulation‬ﺛﻢ ﻧﺨﺘﺎر ‪Command‬‬
‫‪/ START‬وﻧﻜﺘﺐ ‪ 5‬ﺑﺪﻻ ﻣﻦ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ‪ 1‬اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮدة ﺛﻢ ‪ OK‬ﺳﺘﻨﺘﮭﻲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻋﻨﺪ دﺧﻮل ‪ 5‬ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ‬
‫‪TERMINATE 1‬وھﺬا ﯾﻤﺜﻞ ‪ 5‬أﯾﺎم ﻣﻦ ﻋﻤﻞ اﻟﻤﺼﻨﻊ‪ .‬ﻛﺎﻟﻤﻌﺘﺎد ﺳﯿﻜﺘﺐ ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺮ ﻣﻌﯿﺎري إﻟﻰ اﻟﻤﻠﻒ‬
‫‪ Manufact.1.1‬ﻛﻤﺎ ان ھﺬا اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ ﯾﻌﺮض ذاﺗﯿﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﻘﺎرﯾﺮ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﺴﺘﻄﯿﻊ اﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻷﺳﺌﻠﺔ اﻟﻤﻄﺮوﺣﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺮض اﻟﻤﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺠﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ‪:‬‬
‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻄﻠﺒﺎت اﻟﻤﻨﺘﻈﺮة ﻓﻲ ﻗﺴﻢ اﻟﺘﻌﺒﺌﺔ ھﻮ ﻓﻘﻂ ‪ . 0.12‬وھﻮ ﻣﻦ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ‪ Ave. Cont.‬ﻓﻲ‬
‫اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ ﺗﺤﺖ ‪.Queue Entity Packing‬‬
‫ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺴﺎﻋﺎت اﻟﺮﻗﻤﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻮزﻋﺔ ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ ﻣﻌﻄﻰ ﻓﻲ ‪. Table Number‬‬
‫ﻟﻨﺴﺘﻌﺮض اﻵن ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻮﻟﺪ ﻟﺪﯾﮭﺎ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ‪ .‬ﻟﻨﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻷﻣﺮ ‪ SHOW‬ﻟﻨﻨﻈﺮ إﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﺼﻔﺎت اﻟﻌﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم ‪ . System Numeric Attributes‬أوﻻ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻄﻠﺒﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﻠﻘﺎه ‪،‬‬
‫ﻧﺨﺘﺎر ‪ Command / SHOW‬وﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار ﻧﻜﺘﺐ ‪ N1‬ﺛﻢ ‪ . OK‬ﺳﻮف ﺗﺸﺎھﺪ‬
‫اﻟﻨﺘﯿﺠﺔ ‪ 169‬ﻓﻲ ﺳﻄﺮ اﻟﺤﺎﻟﺔ ‪ Status Line‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺮﺋﯿﺴﯿﺔ وﻓﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺠﺮﯾﺪة ‪Journal‬‬
‫‪558‬‬
‫‪ Window‬ﻛﺬﻟﻚ‪ .‬ﺳﻮف ﻧﻔﺤﺺ اﻷن ﻋﺪد اﻟﻤﺮات اﻟﺘﻲ ﺣﺪث ﻓﯿﮭﺎ ﻧﻔﺎذ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ‪، stockout‬‬
‫ﻧﺨﺘﺎر ‪ Command / SHOW‬ﺛﻢ ﻧﻜﺘﺐ ﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار ‪ N$Stockout‬ﺛﻢ ‪. OK‬‬
‫ﻟﻨﺸﺎھﺪ ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﻨﻮاﻓﺬ اﻟﺮﺳﻮﻣﯿﺔ‪ ،‬ﻧﺨﺘﺎر‬
‫وھﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻤﺨﺎزن ‪ Storages Window‬ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ‪ stock level‬ﯾﻤﺜﻞ ﺑﺎﻟﻤﺤﺘﻮﯾﺎت‬

‫اﻟﺤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ‪ Storage Entity‬واﻟﺘﻲ ﻗﯿﻤﺘﮭﺎ ھﻨﺎ ‪ 898‬ﺳﺘﺠﺪ ھﺬه اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ ﺗﺤﺖ اﻟﻤﺨﺰن‬
‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪم ‪ Storage In Use‬ﻓﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻤﺨﺎزن ‪ . Storages Window‬ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﺨﺰون‬
‫اﻟﺤﺎﻟﻲ ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﺟﺪا‪ ،‬إذا ﻟﻢ ﻧﺘﻤﻜﻦ ﻣﻦ زﯾﺎدة اﻟﻤﺒﯿﻌﺎت ﻓﯿﺠﺐ ﻋﻠﯿﻨﺎ إﻧﻘﺎص ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻹﻧﺘﺎج‪ .‬ﻟﻨﺸﺘﻜﺸﻒ‬
‫‪Window / Simulation‬‬ ‫ﻧﻮاﻓﺬ رﺳﻮﻣﯿﺔ أﺧﺮى ﺑﻌﺪ إﻏﻼق ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻤﺨﺎزن‪ .‬ﻧﺨﺘﺎر‬
‫‪ . Window / Facilities Window‬ﻧﺸﺎھﺪ أن ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ آﻻت اﻟﺘﻌﺒﺌﺔ ﻣﻨﺨﻔﻀﺔ ﺟﺪا‪ .‬ﻟﻮن‬
‫اﻵﯾﻘﻮﻧﺔ ﯾﺒﯿﻦ ﻟﻨﺎ أن اﻵﻟﺔ ﻣﺸﻐﻮﻟﺔ ﺣﺎﻟﯿﺎ‪ .‬اﻟﻘﻲ ﻧﻈﺮة ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻷﺧﺮى اﻟﻤﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻟﻚ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺰء‬
‫اﻟﻤﻔﺼﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة‪ .‬ﻟﻨﻨﻈﺮ اﻵن إﻟﻲ اﻟﺠﺪول اﻹﻧﺘﻘﺎﻟﻲ ‪ Transit Table‬ﻟﻨﺨﺘﺎر‬
‫وﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار اوﺟﺪ ‪ Transit‬إﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ Transit‬ﺛﻢ إﺧﺘﺎر ‪ OK‬ھﺬا ﯾﺒﯿﻦ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ‬
‫اﻷزﻣﺎن اﻹﻧﺘﻘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻄﻠﺒﺎت ‪ . order transit times‬ﻟﻨﻨﻈﺮ إﻟﻰ ﺟﺪول اﻷﻋﺪاد ‪Number Table‬‬
‫إﺧﺘﺎر‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار ﺳﻨﺠﺪ ان اﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﻤﺴﻤﻲ ‪ Number‬ﻗﺪ إﺧﺘﯿﺮ ﻓﺄﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ ، OK‬ﺟﺪول‬
‫اﻷﻋﺪاد ﯾﺒﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﺪرج اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري ﻟﻠﺴﺎﻋﺎت اﻟﺮﻗﻤﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻌﺒﺌﺔ ﻛﻞ ﯾﻮم‪.‬‬
‫إﻗﻔﻞ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺮﺳﻮﻣﺎت‪ .‬ﻟﻨﻘﻢ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺠﺮﺑﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪ :‬ﻟﻨﺨﻠﻖ طﻠﺐ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﻜﻮن اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ﻋﻨﺪ أﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺴﺘﻮا‬
‫‪Window / Simulation Window / Blocks‬‬ ‫ﻟﮫ‪ .‬ﻧﻔﺘﺢ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ ﺑﺈﺧﺘﯿﺎر‬
‫‪ Window‬ﺑﺎﻹﺳﺘﻌﺎﻧﺔ ﺑﻤﺆﺷﺮ اﻟﻔﺎرة إﺧﺘﺎر اول ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ TERMINATE‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ) اﻟﺬي ﯾﺘﺒﻊ‬
‫ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ ( TABULATE‬وأﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﯿﮫ‪ .‬ﺳﺘﺸﺎھﺪ ان ﻟﻮن اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ﯾﻀﻲء‪ .‬اﻵن ﻟﻨﻀﻊ ﺷﺮط ﺗﻮﻗﻒ‬
‫‪ Stop Condition‬ﻋﻠﻰ ھﺬا اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ‪ ،‬إﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪The Place Icon in the Debugging‬‬
‫‪559‬‬
‫‪ Toolbar‬ﺛﻢ اﺧﺘﺎر ‪ Command / START‬وﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﻮق اﻟﺤﻮار أﻛﺘﺐ ‪ 5,NP‬ﺛﻢ ‪OK‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﺗﺘﻮﻗﻒ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺣﺮك اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻨﺸﻂ إﻟﻰ اﻷﻋﻠﻰ إﻟﻰ ﺟﺰء اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج اﻟﺨﺎص ﺑﺎﻟﻄﻠﺐ‪،‬‬
‫إﺧﺘﺎر ‪ Command / Custom‬وﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار أﻛﺘﺐ ‪ TRANSFER ,2‬ﺛﻢ ‪، OK‬‬
‫اﻵن ﻻﺣﻆ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺑﺈﺟﺮاء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺧﻄﻮة ﺧﻄﻮة ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪ Ctrl+Alt+1‬ﻟﻌﺪة ﻣﺮات‪ .‬ﻻﺣﻆ‬
‫اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ودون ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺎﺗﻚ‪.‬‬
‫ﻗﻢ ﺑﺒﻌﺾ اﻟﺘﺠﺎرب ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻌﺎﻟﻢ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم وﻻﺣﻆ ﻣﺎﯾﺤﺪث ﺛﻢ دون ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺎﺗﻚ‪.‬‬
‫‪560‬‬
‫‪ -8‬ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺳﻮق ﻣﺮﻛﺰي‬
‫ﯾﺼﻞ اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﺑﺴﯿﺎراﺗﮭﻢ ﻟﻠﺘﺴﻮق ﻓﻲ ﺳﻮق ﻣﺮﻛﺰي‪ .‬ﻣﻮﻗﻒ اﻟﺴﻮق ﯾﺘﺴﻊ ﻟـ ‪ 650‬ﺳﯿﺎرة‪ .‬إذا ﻟﻢ‬
‫ﯾﺘﻤﻜﻦ اﻟﺰﺑﻮن ﻣﻦ إﯾﺠﺎد ﻣﻮﻗﻒ ﻟﺴﯿﺎرﺗﺔ ﯾﻐﺎدر ﺑﺪون أن ﯾﺘﺴﻮق‪ .‬اﻟﻤﺴﺎﻓﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺴﯿﺮھﺎ اﻟﺰﺑﻮن ﻣﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻮﻗﻒ اﻟﻰ داﺧﻞ اﻟﺴﻮق ﺗﺴﺘﻐﺮق ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 60‬ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺔ‪ .‬اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﯾﻘﻮﻣﻮا ﺑﺸﺮاء ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 5‬إﻟﻰ‬
‫‪ 100‬ﻗﻄﻊ ﻣﻮزﻋﺔ ﺗﻮزﯾﻌﺎ ﻣﺘﺴﺎوﯾﺎ‪ .‬اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﺬﯾﻦ ﯾﺸﺘﺮوا ‪ 10‬ﻗﻄﻊ أو أﻗﻞ ﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻮا ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﺳﻼل‬
‫واﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﻣﻨﮭﺎ ‪ 70‬ﺳﻠﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻮق‪ .‬اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﺬﯾﻦ ﯾﺸﺘﺮوا أﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ‪ 10‬ﻗﻄﻊ ﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﻮا ﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻋﺮﺑﺎت‬
‫واﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﻣﻨﮭﺎ ‪ 650‬ﻋﺮﺑﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻮق‪ .‬زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﺴﻮق ﻟﻜﻞ زﺑﻮن ﯾﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻘﻄﻊ اﻟﻤﺸﺘﺮاه‬
‫وھﻮ ‪ 10‬ﺛﻮان ﻟﻜﻞ ﻗﻄﻌﺔ‪ .‬ﺑﻌﺪ إﺧﺘﯿﺎرھﻢ ﻟﻠﻤﺸﺘﺮﯾﺎت ﯾﻠﺘﺤﻖ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﻮﻗﻮن ﺑﺄﻗﺼﺮ طﺎﺑﻮر ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ‬
‫واﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺒﻠﻎ ﻋﺪدھﺎ ‪ 17‬ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺐ‪ .‬اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﺬﯾﻦ أﺷﺘﺮوا أﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪ 10‬ﻗﻄﻊ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﻄﺎﻋﺘﮭﻢ اﻟﻮﻗﻮف‬
‫ﺑﻄﺎﺑﻮر ﺧﺎص ﺳﺮﯾﻊ ﻟﻠﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ‪ .‬زﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﯾﺴﺘﻐﺮق ‪ 2‬ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﻣﺸﺘﺮاه‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ إﻟﻰ‬
‫زﻣﻦ اﻟﺪﻓﻊ اﻟﺬي ﯾﺴﺘﻐﺮق إﻣﺎ ‪ 25‬أو ‪ 30‬أو ‪ 35‬ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺔ‪ .‬ھﺬا اﻟﺰﻣﻦ اﻹﺿﺎﻓﻲ ﯾﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ طﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﺪﻓﻊ‬
‫إﻣﺎ ﻧﻘﺪا أو ﺑﺸﯿﻚ ) ﺳﻨﺪ ﻣﺼﺮﻓﻲ( او ﺑﻄﺎﻗﺔ إﻋﺘﻤﺎد واﻟﺘﻲ ﻟﮭﺎ ﺟﻤﯿﻌﺎ ﻧﻔﺲ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﻓﻲ اﻹﺳﺘﺨﺪام‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﻌﺪ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﺤﺴﺎب ﯾﺘﺠﮫ اﻟﺰﺑﻮن إﻟﻰ ﺳﯿﺎرﺗﮫ ﻓﻲ ﺣﻮاﻟﻲ ‪ 60‬ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺔ وﯾﺤﻤﻞ ﻣﺸﺘﺮﯾﺎﺗﮫ وﯾﻐﺎدر‬
‫اﻟﻤﻮﻗﻒ‪ .‬ﻣﻌﺪل وﺻﻮل اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ إﻟﻰ اﻟﺴﻮق اﻟﻤﺮﻛﺰي ﻣﻮزع أﺳﯿﺎ ﻣﺒﺘﺪا ﺑـ ‪ 600‬زﺑﻮن ﻓﻲ اﻟﺴﺎﻋﺔ‬
‫ﻟﻤﺪة ﻧﺼﻒ ﺳﺎﻋﺔ و ‪ 900‬زﺑﻮن ﻓﻲ اﻟﺴﺎﻋﺔ ﻟﻤﺪة ﺳﺎﻋﺔ و ‪ 450‬زﺑﻮن ﻓﻲ اﻟﺴﺎﻋﺔ ﻟﻤﺪة ﺳﺎﻋﺔ و‬
‫‪ 300‬زﺑﻮن ﻓﻲ اﻟﺴﺎﻋﺔ ﻟﺒﻘﯿﺔ ﯾﻮم اﻟﺘﺴﻮق‪.‬‬
‫‪ -1‬أﺟﺮ ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻟﻤﺪة ‪ 3‬ﺳﺎﻋﺎت‪.‬‬

‫‪ -2‬ﻋﯿﻦ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ‪ transit time‬اﻹﻧﺘﻘﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﻠﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﻋﯿﻦ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻣﻮﻗﻒ اﻟﺴﯿﺎرات و ﻋﺮﺑﺎت اﻟﺘﺴﻮق وﻟﻠﺴﻼل واﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﻦ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -4‬ﺟﺪول ﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺴﻮق اﻟﻤﺮﻛﺰي ﺑﺎﻟﺪﻗﯿﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪; GPSS World Sample File - SUPERMRK.GPS, by Gerard F. Cummings‬‬

‫*********************************************************************‬
‫*‬
‫*‬
‫*‬
‫‪561‬‬
* Supermarket Simulation Model
*
* Time Unit = 1/10 Of a Second
*
*********************************************************************
*
RMULT 1187
First EQU 2
Last EQU 18
Qty VARIABLE (RN1@96+5)
Finance VARIABLE (RN1@3+1)#50+200
Transit TABLE M1,10000,10000,7 ;Time in system
Items TABLE P$Quantity,10,10,10 ;No. of items bought
Shoppers TABLE X$Customers,100,50,12 ;No. of shoppers
Baskt STORAGE 70
Cart STORAGE 650
Park STORAGE 650
Checkout VARIABLE (P$Quantity)#20+P$Payment
Tshop VARIABLE P$Quantity#100
INITIAL X$Customers,0
*********************************************************************
*
Beg TRANSFER Both,,Lost ;Tries to park or leaves
ENTER Park ;Park in parking lot
ADVANCE 600 ;Time to walk from car
SAVEVALUE Customers+,1 ;One more customer
ASSIGN Quantity,V$Qty ;Param quantity = No.
; items bought
ASSIGN Payment,V$Finance ;Param payment = Method
; payment
TEST LE P$Quantity,10,Qcart ;Items >10 Get cart
GATE SNF Baskt,Qcart ;Check basket available
QUEUE Basket ;Queue for a basket
ENTER Baskt ;Get a basket
DEPART Basket ;Leave queue
ASSIGN Carrier,Baskt ;Param carrier
; assigned baskt
TRANSFER ,Shop ;Proceed to shop
*********************************************************************
*
Qcart QUEUE Carts ;Queue for a cart
562
ENTER Cart ;Get a cart
DEPART Carts ;Depart carts queue
ASSIGN Carrier,Cart ;Param carrier assigned
cart
Shop ADVANCE V$Tshop ;Shopping time elapses
TEST LE P$Quantity,10,Norm ;Items < 10 go to express
COUNT L Where,First,Last,1,Q ;Any empty checkouts?
TEST E P$Where,0,Norm ;Some empty checkouts?
QUEUE Xpress ;Queue at express
SEIZE Xpres ;Get express checkout
DEPART Xpress ;Depart express queue
ADVANCE V$Checkout ;Checkout time
RELEASE Xpres ;Free express checkout
LEAVE P$Carrier ;Leave the basket
TRANSFER ,Fin
*********************************************************************
*
Norm SELECT MIN Minque,First,Last,,Q ;Find minimum queue
QUEUE P$Minque ;Join the min queue
SEIZE P$Minque ;Get the checkout
DEPART P$Minque ;Depart the queue
ADVANCE V$Checkout ;Checkout time
RELEASE P$Minque ;Free the checkout
LEAVE P$Carrier ;Leave the cart
Fin TABULATE Transit ;Record transit time
TABULATE Items ;Record items bought
SAVEVALUE Customers-,1 ;One customer leaves
ADVANCE 600 ;Walk to the car
LEAVE Park ;Leave the car park
TERMINATE
Lost TERMINATE ;One customer lost
*********************************************************************
*
* Arrivals for 0 - 30 min.
GENERATE (Exponential(1,0,60)),,,300 ;A Customer
; arrives
TRANSFER ,Beg
* Arrivals for 30 - 90 min.
GENERATE (Exponential(1,0,40)),,18000,900 ;Arrival rate
; after .5
hours
563
‫‪TRANSFER‬‬ ‫‪,Beg‬‬
‫*‬ ‫‪Arrivals for 90 - 150 min.‬‬
‫‪GENERATE‬‬ ‫‪(Exponential(1,0,80)),,54000,450 ;Arrival rate‬‬
‫‪; after 1.5‬‬
‫‪hrs‬‬
‫*‬ ‫‪Arrivals for 150 min +‬‬
‫‪GENERATE‬‬ ‫‪(Exponential(1,0,120)),,90000‬‬ ‫‪;Arrival after‬‬
‫‪; 2.5 hours‬‬
‫*********************************************************************‬
‫*‬
‫‪GENERATE‬‬ ‫‪600‬‬ ‫‪;Xact each minute‬‬
‫‪TABULATE‬‬ ‫‪Shoppers‬‬ ‫‪;Record number of‬‬
‫‪customers‬‬
‫*********************************************************************‬
‫اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﻣﻨﻈﻢ ﻓﻲ ﻋﺪة أﺟﺰاء‪ .‬ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﻌﺮﯾﻒ ﻛﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ ‪ Variable Entities‬و ‪Storage‬‬
‫‪ Entities‬و إﺳﺘﮭﻼل ﻗﯿﻢ اﻟﺤﻔﻆ ‪ Savevalues‬ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ أﺟﺰاء ﻟﻠﻨﻤﻮذج‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺰء اﻷﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﯾﻤﺜﻠﻮا اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﻘﺎدﻣﯿﻦ ﻟﻤﻮﻗﻒ اﻟﺴﯿﺎرات‪ ،‬إذا وﺟﺪ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻛﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺰن اﻟﻤﺴﻤﻰ ‪ Park‬ﻣﻤﺘﻠﺊ ﻓﺈﻧﮫ ﯾﻐﺎدر اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪ ،‬وھﺬا ﯾﻤﺜﻞ زﺑﻮن ﻏﺎدر ﺑﺪون‬
‫دﺧﻮل اﻟﺴﻮق‪ .‬اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﺬﯾﻦ ﯾﺘﻤﻜﻨﻮا ﻣﻦ اﻟﺪﺧﻮل ﯾﺘﺤﺼﻠﻮا ﻋﻠﻲ ﻋﺮﺑﺔ أو ﺳﻠﺔ وﯾﺴﺘﻤﺮوا ﻓﻲ‬
‫اﻟﺘﺴﻮق‪ ،‬إذا ﻛﺎن ﻣﻊ اﻟﺰﺑﻮن أﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ‪ 10‬ﻗﻄﻊ ﯾﻠﺘﺤﻖ ﺑﺄﻗﺼﺮ طﺎﺑﻮر ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ‪ .‬ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ TEST‬ﻓﻲ‬
‫اﻟﺠﺰء اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﯾﻘﻮم ﺑﮭﺬا اﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر وﯾﺮﺳﻞ ﻣﺜﻞ ھﺬا اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ إﻟﻰ اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ اﻟﻤﺮﻣﺰ‬
‫‪ ، Normal‬اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر اﻷﻗﺼﺮ ﯾﺘﺤﺪد ﺑﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪ SELECT‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺰء اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج واﻟﺬي ﯾﻀﻊ‬
‫رﻗﻢ ﻛﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر اﻟﻤﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻌﻠﻢ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻤﺴﻤﻰ ‪ . Minque‬ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ اﻟﺬﯾﻦ ﻟﺪﯾﮭﻢ ‪10‬‬
‫ﻗﻄﻊ أو أﻗﻞ ﻓﺈن ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ COUNT‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺰء اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﯾﻔﺤﺺ ﻛﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر اﻟﻤﺮﻗﻤﮫ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ‪ 4‬وﺣﺘﻰ ‪ 20‬ﻟﻨﻘﻄﺔ ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﺧﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈذا ﻟﻢ ﺗﻮﺟﺪ واﺣﺪة ﯾﻠﺘﺤﻖ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﺑﻄﺎﺑﻮر اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺴﺮﯾﻊ‪ .‬اﻟﺠﺰء ﻣﺎ ﻗﺒﻞ اﻷﺧﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻤﻮذج ﯾﺤﺘﻮى ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺪة ﻗﻮاﻟﺐ ‪ GENERATE‬واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻔﺘﺢ‬
‫وﺗﻘﻔﻞ ‪ turn on and off‬ﻋﻨﺪ اﻟﻮﻗﺖ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻟﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻌﺪل اﻟﻮﺻﻮل‪ ،‬ﻛﺎن ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻤﻜﻦ‬
‫إﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ GENERATE‬واﺣﺪ ﺑﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ داﻟﻲ ﯾﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻲ ﺳﺎﻋﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪ .‬اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ ﻓﻲ‬
‫اﻟﺠﺰء اﻷﺧﯿﺮ ﺗﻮﻗﺖ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة وﺗﺠﺪول أﻋﺪاد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ ﻛﻞ دﻗﯿﻘﺔ و ﺗﻨﻘﺺ ﻋﺪاد اﻹﻧﮭﺎء‪.‬‬
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‫ﺛﻢ ‪ SUPERMRK‬ﺛﻢ ‪ ، Open‬ﻧﺨﻠﻖ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﺈﺧﺘﯿﺎر‬ ‫‪File / Open‬‬ ‫ﻧﺨﺘﺎر‬

‫‪ Command / Create Simulation‬ﺛﻢ ﻧﺨﺘﺎر ‪ Command / START‬وأﻛﺘﺐ ‪180‬‬
‫ﺛﻢ ‪OK‬‬
‫ﺗﻨﺘﮭﻲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﻌﺪ دﺧﻮل ‪ 180‬ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ TERMINATE 1‬وھﺬا ﯾﻤﺜﻞ ﻣﺮور ‪ 3‬ﺳﺎﻋﺎت‬
‫ﻋﻠﻲ ﻋﻤﻞ اﻟﺴﻮق‪ .‬ﻛﺎﻟﻌﺎدة ﯾﻜﺘﺐ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ اﻟﻌﯿﺎري إﻟﻰ اﻟﻤﻠﻒ ‪ Supermrk.1.1‬وﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﯾﺴﺘﻌﺮض‬
‫ذاﺗﯿﺎ ﻓﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﻘﺎرﯾﺮ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﺠﺪول اﻹﻧﺘﻘﺎﻟﻲ ‪ Table Transit‬أن ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﺴﻮق ﻛﺎن ‪ 23640‬ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺔ أو ‪394‬‬
‫دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‪ .‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ اﻟﺠﺰﺋﻲ ﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺰن ﻧﺮى أن أﻗﺼﻰ ﺗﻌﺪاد ﻟﻢ ﯾﺼﻞ ﻗﻂ اﻟﺴﻌﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻓﺮة‪ .‬ﻟﮭﺬا‬
‫ﻓﺈﻧﮫ ﯾﻮﺟﺪ داﺋﻤﺎ اﻣﺎﻛﻦ ﻣﺘﻮﻓﺮة ﻓﻲ ﻣﻮﻗﻒ اﻟﺴﯿﺎرات و أﻋﺪاد ﻛﺎﻓﯿﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺴﻼل واﻟﻌﺮﺑﺎت‪ ،‬وﻟﻜﻦ‬
‫ﻧﻼﺣﻆ وﺟﻮد ﻋﺪد ﻛﺒﯿﺮ ‪ 397‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﻣﻨﺘﻈﺮﯾﻦ ﻓﻲ طﻮاﺑﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﮭﻢ ﺑﮭﺬا ﯾﻤﻀﻮا ﻓﻲ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ وﻗﺖ اطﻮل ﻓﻲ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻋﻨﮫ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﺴﻮق‪ .‬اﻟﺠﺪول ‪ Table Shoppers‬ﯾﻌﻄﻲ ﻣﺪرج‬
‫ﺗﻜﺮاري ﻟﻠﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺴﻮق ﻣﻌﺎﯾﻦ ‪ sampled‬ﻋﻨﺪ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ ﻛﻞ دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪398.7‬‬
‫ﻣﺘﺴﻮق‪ ،‬ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺒﺎ أﻛﺜﺮھﻢ ﯾﻨﺘﻈﺮوا ﻓﻲ طﻮاﺑﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻟﻨﺴﺘﻌﺮض اﻵن ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻋﻨﺪ ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ‪ .‬ﻟﻨﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻷﻣﺮ ‪ SHOW‬ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺮ إﻟﻰ ﺑﻌﺾ‬
‫اﻟﺼﻔﺎت اﻟﻌﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻤﺜﻞ ﺑﺄﺟﺰاء ﻣﻦ اﻷﻟﻒ‪ .‬أوﻻ ﻧﺸﺎھﺪ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﻟﻔﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻼل‪ ،‬إﺧﺘﺎر‬
‫‪ Command / SHOW‬ﺛﻢ أﻛﺘﺐ ﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار ‪ SR$Baskt‬ﺑﻌﺪ ذﻟﻚ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﻌﺮﺑﺎت‪،‬‬
‫إﺧﺘﺎر ‪ Command / SHOW‬وﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار أﻛﺘﺐ ‪ SR$Cart‬ﺛﻢ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻣﻮاﻗﻒ‬
‫اﻟﺴﯿﺎرات‪ ،‬إﺧﺘﺎر ‪ Command / SHOW‬وﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار أﻛﺘﺐ ‪ ، SR$Park‬أﺳﮭﻞ‬
‫طﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪت ھﺬه اﻟﻔﻌﺎﻟﯿﺎت ﯾﻜﻮن ﻋﻦ طﺮﯾﻖ ﻓﺘﺢ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﻤﺨﺎزن ‪، Storages Window‬‬
‫ﻟﻨﺨﺘﺎر ‪ . Window / Simulation Window / Storages‬ھﺬا ﯾﺒﯿﻦ ﻛﺎﺋﻨﺎت اﻟﻤﺨﺎزن‬
‫اﻟﻤﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﺮﺑﺎت واﻟﺴﻼل و ﻣﻮاﻗﻒ اﻟﺴﯿﺎرات‪ ،‬ﻣﻦ ﻗﯿﻢ اﻹﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻷﻗﺼﻰ ﻧﺮى أن ﻟﯿﺲ ھﻨﺎك اي‬
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‫ﻣﻦ ھﺬه اﻹﻣﻜﺎﻧﯿﺎت اﺳﺘﺨﺪم ﻛﻠﯿﺎ ﺧﻼل اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪ .‬ﯾﻤﻜﻨﻨﺎ أن ﻧﺸﺎھﺪ اﻵن اﻟﻤﺪرج اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري ﻷوﻗﺎت‬
‫اﻟﺘﺴﻮق‪ ،‬ﻧﺨﺘﺎر ‪Window / Simulation Window / Table Window‬‬
‫إﺿﻐﻂ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ Transit‬ﺛﻢ إﺧﺘﺎر ‪ ، OK‬ﯾﻤﻜﻨﻚ أن ﺗﺸﺎھﺪ اﻟﻤﺪرﺟﺎت اﻟﺘﻜﺮارﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻄﻊ اﻟﻤﺸﺘﺮاه‬
‫وﻟﻠﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺴﻮق‪ ،‬ھﺬه اﻟﺠﺪاول ﻣﺴﻤﺎه ‪ Items‬و ‪ . Shoppers‬ﻟﻨﻠﻘﻲ ﻧﻈﺮة ﻋﻠﻰ أﻣﺎﻛﻦ ﺗﻮاﺟﺪ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ‪ ،‬ﻧﺨﺘﺎر‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ وﺟﻮد اﻟﻌﺪﯾﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ ﻓﻲ ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪) QUEUE‬ﻗﺎﻟﺐ رﻗﻢ ‪ (30‬اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪SELECT‬‬
‫ﯾﻨﺘﻈﺮوا دﺧﻮل ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ‪ SEIZE‬ھﺆﻻء اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﻮن ﯾﻤﺜﻠﻮا اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﺬﯾﻦ ﯾﺤﺎوﻟﻮا دﻓﻊ اﻟﺤﺴﺎب‪.‬‬
‫ﻟﻨﻨﻈﺮ اﻵن إﻟﻰ طﻮاﺑﯿﺮ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﻦ‪ ،‬ﻧﺨﺘﺎر ‪Window / Simulation Window /‬‬
‫إﺳﺘﺨﺪم ﻋﺎﻣﻮد اﻹﻧﺰﻻق ﻓﻲ ﺟﺎﻧﺐ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة ﻟﺘﺘﺤﺮك إﻟﻰ اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ اﻟﻤﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ اﻟﺴﺮﯾﻊ )‬
‫أو ﻛﺒﺮ اﻟﻨﺎﻓﺬة ﻷﻗﺼﺎھﺎ(‬
‫ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻼت اﻟﻤﻤﺜﻠﺔ ﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ اﻟﺴﺮﯾﻊ‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ ان ﺟﻤﯿﻊ ﻣﺤﻄﺎت اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﻣﺤﻤﻠﺔ ﻷﻗﺼﺎھﺎ وﻟﮭﺎ طﻮاﺑﯿﺮ طﻮﯾﻠﺔ ﻣﺎﻋﺪى طﺎﺑﻮر اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺴﺮﯾﻊ‪ ،‬واﺿﺢ ان ﻋﻠﻰ إدارة اﻟﺴﻮق ﺗﺠﻨﺐ ھﺬا اﻟﺰﺣﺎم وإﻻ ﺳﯿﻔﻘﺪوا اﻟﻜﺜﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‪ .‬أﻗﻔﻞ‬
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‫ﻧﻮاﻓﺬ اﻟﺮﺳﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﻤﻔﺘﻮﺣﮫ ودﻋﻨﺎ ﻧﺠﺮب إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ‪ 10‬ﻣﺤﻄﺎت ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ وﻧﻨﻈﺮ إذا ﻛﺎن ھﺬا ﺳﯿﺤﻞ‬
‫ﺑﻌﺾ ھﺬه اﻟﻤﺸﺎﻛﻞ‪ ،‬ﻏﯿﺮ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺴﻄﺮ اﻟﻤﺮﻣﺰ ﺑـ ‪ Last‬إﻟﻰ‪ 28‬ھﺬا ﺳﯿﺰﯾﺪ ﻋﺪد ﻣﺤﻄﺎت اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ‪ 17‬إﻟﻰ ‪ 27‬ﺑﺈﺧﺘﯿﺎر ‪Command / Custom‬‬
‫وﻓﻲ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻟﺤﻮار أﻛﺘﺐ ‪ Last EQU 28‬ﺛﻢ إﺿﻐﻂ ‪ OK‬إﺧﺘﺎر ‪Command / Clear‬‬
‫ﺛﻢ ‪ OK‬إﺑﺪأ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﺈﺧﺘﯿﺎر ‪ Command / START‬وأﻛﺘﺐ ‪ 180‬ﺛﻢ ‪ . OK‬ﺑﻌﺪ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة أﻧﻈﺮ إﻟﻰ أﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺎت اﻟﻤﮭﻤﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﻧﺎﻗﺸﻨﺎھﺎ ﺳﺎﺑﻘﺎ ودون ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺎﺗﻚ‪ .‬أوﺟﺪ اﻟﻌﺪد اﻷﻣﺜﻞ‬
‫ﻟﻤﺤﻄﺎت اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻔﻲ ﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ وﻻ ﺗﺮھﻖ إدارة اﻟﺴﻮق ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻋﺪد ﻣﺤﺎﺳﺒﯿﻦ أﻛﺜﺮ‬
‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﻀﺮوري )زﯾﺎدة رواﺗﺐ(‪ .‬ھﺬا ﯾﺴﺘﻌﺮض ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ إدارة اﻟﺴﻮق ﻓﻲ ﺿﺒﻂ اﻟﺘﻮازن ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﻜﻠﻔﺔ‬
‫واﻟﺪﺧﻞ وإرﺿﺎء اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‪.‬‬
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GPSS ‫( ﻗﻮاﻟﺐ‬1) ‫ﻣﻠﺤﻖ‬
ADOPT Blocks are used to change the Assembly Set of the
Active Transaction.
ADOPT A
A - Assembly Set. Required. The operand must be Name, PosInteger,
ParenthesizedExpression, SNA, or SNA*Parameter.
ADOPT 2000
ADVANCE Block delays the progress of a Transaction for a

specified amount of simulated time.
ADVANCE A,B
A - The mean time increment. Required. The operand must be Name, Number, String,
ParenthesizedExpression, SNA or SNA*Parameter.
B - The time half-range or, if a function, the function modifier. Optional. The operand must be
Null, Name, Number, String, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA, or SNA*Parameter.
ADVANCE 101.6,50.3
ALTER Block changes the priority or a Parameter of selected

members of a Transaction Group.
ALTER O A,B,C,D,E,F,G
O - Conditional operator. Relationship of E to F for the alteration to occur. These choices are
explained below. Optional. The operator must be Null, E, G, GE, L, LE, MAX, MIN, or NE.
A - Transaction Group. Group whose members will be tested for alteration. Required. The
operand must be Name, PosInteger, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA, or SNA*Parameter.
B - Limit. The maximum number of Transactions to be altered. The default is ALL. Optional.
The operand must be Null, Name, PosInteger, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA, or
SNA*Parameter.
C - Altered attribute. The member Transaction Parameter to be altered, or PR to alter the

member Transaction priority. The operand must be PR, Name, PosInteger,
D - Replacement value. The value which will replace attribute C. Required. The operand must
be Name, Number, String, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA, or SNA*Parameter.
E - Test value. PR or Parameter number. The member Transaction Parameter which

determines whether each Group member Transaction should be altered, or PR to use the
Transaction priority for the determination. It is evaluated with respect to the Transaction
568
Group member. Optional. The operand must be PR, Null, Name, PosInteger,
F - Reference value. The value against which the E Operand is compared. It is evaluated with
respect to the Active Transaction. Optional. The operand must be Null, Name, Number,
String, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA, or SNA*Parameter.
G - Alternate Block number. The alternate destination for the Active Transaction. Optional.
SNA*Parameter.
ALTER Inventory,ALL,Price,49.95
ALTER NE Bin7,10,Price,49.95,PartNum,99.95,Out
The conditional operator may be E, G, GE, L, LE, MAX, MIN, or NE. If no conditional operator
is used, E (equality) is assumed. When the condition is true, the Transaction being tested is
altered.
ASSEMBLE Wait for and destroy related Transactions.
ASSEMBLE A
A - Transaction count. Required. The operand must be Name, PosInteger,
ASSEMBLE 2
ASSIGN Blocks are used to place or modify a value in a

Transaction Parameter.
ASSIGN A,B,C
A - Parameter number of the Active Transaction. Required. The operand must be Name,
PosInteger, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA, or SNA*Parameter, followed by +, -, or Null.
B - Value. Required. the operand must be Name, Number, String, ParenthesizedExpression,

SNA, or SNA*Parameter.
C - Function number. Optional. The operand must be Null, Name, PosInteger,

ASSIGN 2000,150.6
ASSIGN TEXT,"Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair."
ASSIGN 2000+,-3
ASSIGN 2000-,-3
BUFFER Block places the Active Transaction on the Current

Events Chain behind its priority peers.
569
BUFFER
CLOSE Block terminates a Data Stream and retrieves its error

code.
CLOSE A,B,C
A - Transaction Parameter. Optional. The operand must be Null, Name, PosInteger,
B - Data Stream. Optional. The operand must be Null, Name, PosInteger,

ParenthesizedExpression, SNA, or SNA*Parameter. The default is 1.
C - Alternate Destination. Optional. The operand must be Null, Name, PosInteger,

CLOSE Error_Parm,2
COUNT Block places an entity count into a Parameter of the

Active Transaction.
COUNT O A,B,C,D,E
O - Conditional operator or logical operator. These choices are explained below. Required.
The operator must be FNV, FV, I, LS, LR, NI, NU, SE, SF, SNE, SNF, SNV, SV, U, E, G, GE,
L, LE, MIN, MAX, or NE.
A - Parameter number to receive count. Required. The operand must be Name, PosInteger,
B - Number or name of entity at lower end of range. The entity number of the first entity to be
tested. The entity type is implicitly specified by the logical operator or by Operand E.
Required. The operand must be Name, PosInteger, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA, or
SNA*Parameter.
C - Number or name of entity at upper end of range. The entity number of the last entity to be
tested. Required. The operand must be Name, PosInteger, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA,
or SNA*Parameter.
D - Reference value for E Operand. Required only when in Conditional Mode. Optional. The
operand must be Null, Name, Number, String, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA, or
SNA*Parameter.
E - SNA class name. Entity attribute specifier for Conditional Mode tests. Required only for
Conditional Mode. The type of SNA implies the entity type. You do not specify the entity
number in Operand E. This is done automatically as the entity number range is searched. You
may use any entity SNA class. The operand must be Null or entitySNAclass.
COUNT SF FullCount,Warehouse1,Warehouse13
COUNT E EmptyCount,FirstQueue,LastQueue,0,Q
570
Either a conditional operator or a logical operator is required. The logical operator may be
FNV, FV, I, LS, LR, NI, NU, SE, SF, SNE, SNF, SNV, SV, or U. When the logical operator is
true, the entity being tested is counted.
The conditional operator may be E, G, GE, L, LE, MAX, MIN, or NE.
DEPART Block registers statistics which indicate a reduction in

the content of a Queue Entity.
DEPART A,B
A - Queue Entity name or number. Required. The operand must be Name, PosInteger,
B - Number of units by which to decrease content of the Queue Entity. Default value is 1.
Optional. The operand must be Null, Name, PosInteger, String, ParenthesizedExpression,
DEPART WaitingLine
DISPLACE Block moves any Transaction.
DISPLACE A,B,C,D
A - Transaction number. Required. The operand must be Name, PosInteger,
B - Displaced Transaction destination. Block name or number. Required. The operand must
be Name, PosInteger, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA, or SNA*Parameter.
C - Parameter number. Parameter of displaced Transaction to receive residual time if

preempted Transaction is removed from FEC. Optional. The operand must be Null, Name,
PosInteger, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA, or SNA*Parameter.
D - Alternate destination for the Active Transaction. Block name or number. Optional. The
operand must be Null, Name, PosInteger, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA, or
SNA*Parameter.
DISPLACE X$Culprit,Compensate,Residual,NotCaught
ENTER Block When a Transaction attempts to enter an ENTER

Block, it either takes or waits for a specified number of storage
units.
ENTER A,B
A - Storage Entity name or number. Required. The operand must be Name, PosInteger,
B - Number of units by which to decrease the available storage capacity. Default value is 1.
Optional. The operand must be Null, Name, PosInteger, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA, or
SNA*Parameter.
571
ENTER Toolkit,2
EXAMINE Block may be used to test for membership in a

Numeric Group or a Transaction Group.
EXAMINE A,B,C
A - Group number. Group whose members will be examined. Required. The operand must be
Name, PosInteger, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA, or SNA*Parameter.
B - Numeric Mode only. The value to be tested for membership in the Numeric Group.
Optional. The operand must be Null, Name, Number, String, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA,
or SNA*Parameter.
C - Block number. Alternate destination for Active Transaction if no membership is found.

SNA*Parameter.
EXAMINE ValidColors,P$Color,NotCorrectColor
EXAMINE ValidXNs,,NotValidXN
EXECUTE Block can cause any Block routine in the simulation

to be done on behalf of the Active Transaction.
EXECUTE A
A - Block number. The name or number of the Block to be "performed". required. The
EXECUTE P$ActiveBlock
FAVAIL Block ensures that a Facility Entity is in the available

state.
FAVAIL A
A - Facility number. Required. The operand must be Name, PosInteger,
FAVAIL Teller1
FUNAVAIL Blocks are used to make a Facility Entity unavailable

for ownership by Transactions.
FUNAVAIL A,B,C,D,E,F,G,H
A - Facility name or number. Required. The operand must be Name, PosInteger,
B - REmove or COntinue Mode for owning Transaction. Optional. The operand must be RE,
CO, or Null.
572
C - Block number. New Block for Transaction owning the Facility Entity. Optional. The
SNA*Parameter.
D - Parameter number. Parameter to receive residual time if owning Transaction is removed

from FEC. Optional. The operand must be Null, Name, PosInteger, ParenthesizedExpression,
SNA or SNA*Parameter.
E - REmove or COntinue Mode for preempted Transactions. Optional. The operand must be
RE, CO or Null.
F - Block number. New Block for Transactions preempted at the Facility Entity. Optional. The
operand must be Null, Name, PosInteger, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA or SNA*Parameter.
G - REmove or COntinue Mode for Transactions pending or delayed at the Facility Entity.
Optional. The operand must be RE, CO or Null.
H - Block number. New Block for Transactions pending or delayed at the Facility Entity.
Optional. The operand must be Null, Name, PosInteger, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA or
SNA*Parameter.
FUNAVAIL Teller1
FUNAVAIL TELLER,RE,TLR2,300,RE,MGR,CO
GATE Block alters Transaction flow based on the state of an

entity.
GATE O A,B
O - Conditional operator. Condition required of entity to be tested for successful test.
Required. The operator must be FNV, FV, I, LS, LR, M, NI, NM, NU, SE, SF, SNE, SNF,
SNV, SV, or U.
A - Entity name or number to be tested. The entity type is implied by the conditional operator.
SNA*Parameter.
B - Destination Block number when test is unsuccessful. Optional. The operand must be Null,
Name, PosInteger, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA, SNA*Parameter.
GATE SNF MotorPool
GATE SNE MotorPool,CupboardIsBare
The conditional operator is required. It may be FNV, FV, I, LS, LR, M, NI, NM, NU, SE , SF,
SNE, SNF, SNV, SV, or U. When the condition is true, the Transaction enters the GATE
Block and proceeds to the Next Sequential Block.
GATHER Wait for related Transactions.
GATHER A
573
A - Transaction count. Required. The operand must be Name, PosInteger,
GATHER 2
GENERATE Block creates Transactions for future entry into the

simulation.
GENERATE A,B,C,D,E
A - Mean inter generation time. Optional. The operand must be Null, Name, Number, String,
ParenthesizedExpression, or DirectSNA. You may not use Transaction Parameters.
B - Inter generation time half-range or Function Modifier. Optional. The operand must be Null,
Name, Number, String, ParenthesizedExpression, or DirectSNA. You may not use
Transaction Parameters.
C - Start delay time. Time increment for the first Transaction. Optional. The operand must be
Null, Name, Number, String, ParenthesizedExpression, or DirectSNA. You may not use
Transaction Parameters.
D - Creation limit. The default is no limit. Optional. The operand must be Null, Name,
PosInteger, String, ParenthesizedExpression, or DirectSNA. You may not use Transaction
Parameters.
E - Priority level. Optional. Zero is the default. The operand must be Null, Name, integer,
String, ParenthesizedExpression, or DirectSNA. You may not use Transaction Parameters.
GENERATE 0.1
INDEX Block updates a Parameter of the Active Transaction.
INDEX A,B
A - Parameter number. Parameter with source value. Required. The operand must be Name,
B - Numeric value. Number to be added to contents of Parameter. The result goes into
Parameter 1. Required. The operand must be Name, Number, ParenthesizedExpression,
INDEX 2,11.7
JOIN Block adds the Active Transaction to a Transaction Group,

or adds a number to a Numeric Group.
JOIN A,B
A - Group entity number. Group to which a member will be added. Required. The operand
must be Name, PosInteger, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA, or SNA*Parameter.
B - Numeric value. Number to be added to numeric Group. Optional. The operand must be
Null, Name, Number, String, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA, or SNA*Parameter.
574
JOIN Solditems
LEAVE Block increases the accessible storage units at a

Storage Entity.
LEAVE A,B
A - Storage Entity name or number. Required. The operand must be Name, PosInteger,
B - Number of storage units. The default is 1. Optional. The operand must be Null, Name,
LEAVE RepairMen,10
LINK Block controls the placement of the Active Transaction on

the User Chain of a Userchain Entity.
LINK A,B,C
A - Userchain number. The Userchain Entity which may receive the entering Transaction.
SNA*Parameter.
B - Chain ordering. The placement of new Transactions on the Userchain. Required. The
operand must be LIFO, FIFO, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA, or SNA*Parameter.
C - Next Block location. The destination Block for Transactions which find the Link Indicator of
the Userchain in the off state (reset). Optional. The operand must be Null, Name, PosInteger,
LINK OnHold,FIFO
LOGIC Block changes the state of a Logicswitch entity.
LOGIC O A
O - Logic operator. Required. The operator must be S, R, or I.
A - Logicswitch Entity number. Required. The operand must be Name, PosInteger,

LOGIC S PowerSwitch
A logical operator is required. It may be S, R, or I with the following effect:
• S - The logic switch is left in the "set" or on state.
• R - The logic switch is left in the "reset" or off state.
• I - The logic switch is inverted.
575
LOOP Block modifies a Parameter and controls the destination
of the Active Transaction based on the result.
LOOP A,B
A - Parameter containing count. required. The operand must be Name, PosInteger,
B - Block number. Next Block if count nonzero after decrement. Optional. The operand must
be Null, Name, PosInteger, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA, or SNA*Parameter.
LOOP Customer_Count,Start_Over
MARK Block places an absolute clock time stamp into the

Active Transaction or into its Parameter.
MARK A
A - Parameter number. Parameter to receive value of system clock. Optional. The operand
must be Null, Name, PosInteger, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA, or SNA*Parameter.
MARK Beginning
MATCH A pair of MATCH Blocks cause Transactions to wait for

each other.
MATCH A
A - Block name or number. Conjugate MATCH Block to be tested for a matching (same
Assembly Set) Transaction. Required. The operand must be Name, PosInteger,
A_Is_Done MATCH B_Is_Done
B_Is_Done MATCH A_Is_Done
MSAVEVALUE Block updates an element of a Matrix Entity.
MSAVEVALUE A,B,C,D
A - Matrix Entity name or number, with optional + or -. Required. the operand must be Name,
PosInteger, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA, or SNA*Parameter, followed by +, -, or Null.
B - Row number. Required. The operand must be Name, PosInteger,

C - Column number. Required. The operand must be Name, PosInteger,

D - Value to be stored, added, or subtracted. Required. The operand must be Name, Number,
String, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA, or SNA*Parameter.
576
MSAVEVALUE Sales+,Part23,Cust77,6.234
MSAVEVALUE Parts,Part23,Description,"Zippo lighter"
OPEN Block initializes a Data Stream.
OPEN A,B,C
A - Data Stream descriptor. Required. The operand must be Name, PosInteger, String,
B - Data Stream number. Optional. The operand must be Null, Name, PosInteger,
ParenthesizedExpression, SNA or SNA*Parameter. Default is 1.
C - Alternate Destination Block name or number. Optional. The operand must be Null, Name,
OPEN ("MYFILE.TXT"),2,Error_Block
PREEMPT Block displaces a Transaction from ownership of a

Facility Entity.
PREEMPT A,B,C,D,E
B - Priority Mode. PR, for Priority Mode, or Interrupt Mode, if omitted. Optional. The operand
must be PR or Null.
C - Block name or number. New destination for Transaction presently owning the Facility.
SNA*Parameter.
D - Parameter number. Parameter of preempted Transaction to receive residual time if

preempted Transaction is removed from FEC. Optional. The operand must be Null, Name,
E - REmove Mode. Removes preempted Transaction from contention for the Facility.
Optional. The operand must be RE, or Null. If RE, you must specify a destination in Operand
C.
PREEMPT Teller1
PREEMPT Teller1,,Teller2,101,RE
PREEMPT Teller1,PR,Teller2
PRIORITY Block sets the priority of the Active Transaction.
PRIORITY A,B
577
A - New priority value. Required. The operand must be Name, integer, String,
B - Buffer option. Places Active Transaction behind priority peers on CEC. Optional. The
operand must be BU or Null.
PRIORITY 10
QUEUE Block updates Queue Entity statistics to reflect an

increase in content.
QUEUE A,B
A - Queue Entity name or number. Required. The operand must be Name, PosInteger,
B - Number of units by which to increase the content of the Queue Entity. Default value is 1.
SNA*Parameter.
QUEUE WaitingLine
RELEASE Block releases ownership of a Facility, or removes a

preempted Transaction from contention for a Facility.
RELEASE A
RELEASE Teller1
REMOVE Block removes members from a Numeric Group or a

Transaction Group.
REMOVE O A,B,C,D,E,F
O - Conditional operator. Relationship of D to E for removal to occur. These choices are
explained below. Optional. The operator must be Null, E, G, GE, L, LE, MAX, MIN, or NE.
A - Group number. Group from which a member or members will be removed. Required. The
B - Removal limit. The maximum number of Transactions to be removed. Optional. The

operand must be ALL, Null, Name, PosInteger, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA or
SNA*Parameter.
C - Numeric value. Numeric value to be removed from a Numeric Group. Optional. The
operand must be Null, Name, Number, String, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA or
SNA*Parameter.
D - Test value. PR or Parameter number. The member attribute which determines whether
each Group member Transaction should be removed, or PR to use the Transaction priority for
578
the determination. It is evaluated with respect to the Transaction Group member. Optional.
The operand must be PR or Null, Name, PosInteger, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA, or
SNA*Parameter.
E - Reference value. The value against which the D Operand is compared. The reference
value is evaluated with respect to the Active Transaction. Optional. The operand must be Null,
Name, Number, String, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA or SNA*Parameter.
F - Block number. The alternate destination for the entering Transaction. Optional. The
operand must be Null, Name, PosInteger, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA or SNA*Parameter.
REMOVE Inventory
REMOVE G 3,10,,300,11.6,Jump_Block
removed from the Group
RETURN Block releases ownership of a Facility, or removes a

preempted Transaction from contention for a Facility.
RETURN A
RETURN Teller1
SAVAIL Block ensures that a Storage Entity is in the available

state.
SAVAIL A
A - Storage name or number. Required. The operand must be Name, PosInteger,
SAVAIL MotorPool
SAVEVALUE Block changes the value of a Savevalue Entity.
SAVEVALUE A,B
A - Savevalue Entity number. Required. May be followed by + or - to indicate addition or
subtraction to existing value. Required. The operand must be Name, PosInteger,
ParenthesizedExpression, SNA, or SNA*Parameter, followed by +, -, or Null.
B - The value to be stored, added, or subtracted. Required. The operand must be Name,
Number, String, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA, or SNA*Parameter.
SAVEVALUE Account,99.95
SAVEVALUE The_Bard,"A rose by any other name ..."
579
SCAN Block passes information from a Transaction Group
member to the Active Transaction.
SCAN O A,B,C,D,E,F
O - Conditional operator. Relationship of B to C for the Transaction Group member to be
chosen. These choices are explained below. Optional. The operator must be Null, E, G, GE,
L, LE, MAX, MIN, or NE.
A - Transaction Group number. Group whose members will be scanned. Required. The
B - Test value. PR or Parameter number. The member attribute which determines whether
the Group member Transaction should be selected. It is evaluated with respect to the
Transaction Group member. Optional. The operand must be PR or Null, Name, PosInteger,
C - Reference value. The value against which the B Operand is compared. The default is 0.
Optional. The operand must be Null, Name, Number, String, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA,
or SNA*Parameter.
D - Retrieved value. PR or Parameter number. The member attribute which is to be assigned

to a Parameter of the Active Transaction. It is evaluated with respect to the Transaction
Group member. Required. The operand must be PR, Name, PosInteger,
E - Receiving Parameter number. The Parameter number of the entering Transaction which
will receive the value retrieved from Operand D. Required. The operand must be Name,
F - Alternate Block number. The alternate destination for the entering Transaction. Optional.
SNA*Parameter.
SCAN MAX Inventory,P$Price,,P$PartNumber,100
SCAN E Lot11,PartNum,127,Price,Price,Phone
selected
SEEK Block sets the Current Line Position of a Data Stream.
SEEK A,B
A - New Current Line Position. Required. The operand must be Name, PosInteger,
B - Data Stream Entity. Optional. The operand must be Null, Name, PosInteger,
SEEK 20,Data_Base
580
SEIZE Block When the Active Transaction attempts to enter a
SEIZE Block, it waits for or acquires ownership of a Facility
Entity.
SEIZE A
SEIZE Teller1
SELECT Block chooses an entity and places its entity number in

a Parameter of the Active Transaction.
SELECT O A,B,C,D,E,F
O - Conditional operator or logical operator. These choices are explained below. Required.
The operator must be FNV, FV, I, LS, LR, NI, NU, SE, SF, SNE, SNF, SNV, SV, U, E, G, GE,
L, LE, MIN, MAX, or NE.
A - Parameter name or number to receive the number of the selected entity. Required. The
B - Lower entity number. Required. The operand must be Name, PosInteger,

C - Upper entity number. Required. The operand must be Name, PosInteger,

D - Reference value for E Operand when in Conditional Mode. Optional. The operand must
be Name, Number, String, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA, or SNA*Parameter. Not used with
MAX or MIN.
E - SNA class name. Entity attribute specifier for Conditional Mode tests. Required only for
Conditional Mode. The type of SNA implies the entity type. You do not specify the entity
number in Operand E. This is done automatically as the entity number range is searched. You
may use any entity SNA class. Optional. The operand must be Null or entitySNAclass.
F - Alternate Block number. The destination Block if no entity is selected. Optional. The
SNA*Parameter.
SELECT SNF Not_Full,Bin1,Bin3
10 Bin1 EQU 1
20 Bin2 EQU 2
30 Bin3 EQU 3
40 Bin1 STORAGE 11
50 Bin2 STORAGE 1000
581
60 Bin3 STORAGE 150
100 SELECT SNF,3,Bin1,Bin3,,,No_Room
Either a conditional operator or a logical operator is required. The logical operator may be
FNV, FV, I, LS, LR, NI, NU, SE, SF, SNE, SNF, SNV, SV, or U. When the logical operator is
true, the entity being tested is selected.
Either a conditional operator or a logical operator is required. The conditional operator may be
E, G, GE, L, LE, MAX, MIN, or NE. The conditions are defined as follows:
SPLIT Block creates Transactions in the same Assembly Set as

the Active Transaction.
SPLIT A,B,C
A - Count. Number of related Transactions to be created. Required. The operand must be
B - Block number. Destination for new Transactions. Optional. The operand must be Null,
C - Parameter number. Parameter to receive serial number. Optional. The operand must be
Null, Name, PosInteger, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA, or SNA*Parameter.
SPLIT 1
SPLIT 3,P20,20
SPLIT 3,Pro,17
SUNAVAIL Block ensures that a Storage Entity is in the

unavailable state.
SUNAVAIL A
A - Storage name or number. Required. The operand must be Name, PosInteger,
ParenthesizedExpression, SNA, SNA*Parameter.
SUNAVAIL MotorPool
TABULATE Block triggers the collection of a data item in a Table

Entity.
TABULATE A,B
A - Table Entity name or number. Required. The operand must be Name, PosInteger,
582
B - Weighting factor. Optional. The operand must be Null, Name, Number,
TABULATE Sales
TERMINATE Block removes the Active Transaction from the

simulation and optionally reduces the Termination Count.
TERMINATE A
A - Termination Count decrement. Default is 0. Optional. The operand must be Null, Name,
TERMINATE 1
TEST Block compares values, normally SNAs, and controls the

destination of the Active Transaction based on the result of the
comparison.
TEST O A,B,C
O - Relational operator. Relationship of Operand A to Operand B for a successful test.
Required. The operator must be E, G, GE, L, LE, or NE.
A - Test value. Required. The operand must be Name, Number, String,

B - Reference value. Required. The operand must be Name, Number, String,

C - Destination Block number. Optional. The operand must be Null, Name, PosInteger,
TEST G C1,70000
TEST G Q$Teller1_Line,Q$Teller2_Line,Teller1
TRACE Block turns on the Trace Indicator of the Active

Transaction.
TRACE
TRANSFER Block causes the Active Transaction to jump to a

new Block location.
TRANSFER A,B,C,D
A - Transfer Block mode. Described below. Optional. The operand must be BOTH, ALL,
PICK, FN, P, SBR, SIM, fraction, Name, PosInteger, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA,
SNA*Parameter, or Null.
583
B - Block number or location. Parameter name or number when in P Mode. Optional. The
SNA*Parameter.
C - Block number or location. Increment value in FN or P Mode. Optional. The operand must
be Null, Name, PosInteger, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA, or SNA*Parameter.
D - Block number increment for ALL Mode. Default is 1. Optional. The operand must be Null,
Unconditional Mode
TRANSFER ,New_Place
Fractional Mode
TRANSFER .75,,New_Place
Both Mode
TRANSFER BOTH,First_Place,Second_Place
All Mode
TRANSFER ALL,First_Place,Last_Place,2
Pick Mode
TRANSFER PICK,First_Place,Last_Place
Function Mode
TRANSFER FN,Func1,5
Parameter Mode
TRANSFER P,Placemarker,1
Subroutine Mode
TRANSFER SBR,New_Place,Placemarker
Simultaneous Mode
TRANSFER SIM,Nodelay_Place,Delay_Place
UNLINK Block removes Transactions from the User Chain of a

Userchain Entity.
584
UNLINK O A,B,C,D,E,F
O - Relational operator. Relationship of D to E for removal to occur. These choices are
explained below. Optional. The operator must be Null, E, G, GE, L, LE or NE.
A - User Chain number. User Chain from which one or more Transactions will be removed.
SNA*Parameter.
B - Block number. The destination Block for removed Transactions. Required. The operand
must be Name, PosInteger, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA, or SNA*Parameter.
C - Removal limit. The maximum number of Transactions to be removed. If not specified, ALL
is used. Optional. The operand must be ALL, Null, Name, PosInteger,
D - Test value. The member Transaction Parameter name or number to be tested, a Boolean
variable to be tested, or BACK to remove from the tail of the chain. Optional. The operand
must be Null, Name, PosInteger, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA, SNA*Parameter or BACK.
E - Reference value. The value against which the D Operand is compared. Optional. The
operand must be Null, Name, Number, String, ParenthesizedExpression, SNA, or
SNA*Parameter. Operand E is not used if Operand D is a Boolean Variable.
F - Block number. The alternate destination for the entering Transaction. Optional. The
SNA*Parameter.
UNLINK OnHold,Reentry,1
The relational operator may be E, G, GE, L, LE, or NE. If no relational operator is used, E
(equality) is assumed. When the relationship is true and the limit condition has not been
reached, the Transaction being tested is removed from the User Chain
UNTRACE Block turns off the Trace Indicator of the Active

Transaction.
UNTRACE
585
GPSS ‫( أواﻣﺮ‬2) ‫ﻣﻠﺤﻖ‬
BVARIABLE Command defines a Bvariable Entity.
NAME BVARIABLE X
NAME - Entity Label for this entity. Required. The field must be Name.
X - Expression. Required. Must be Expression. Expressions are discussed in Section 3.4.
LINE11 BVARIABLE (BV$CLK’AND’BV$PHASE2)
CLEAR Command returns the simulation to the unused state.
CLEAR A
A - ON or OFF. If the A Operand is omitted, ON is assumed. Optional. The operand must be
ON, OFF or Null.
CONDUCT Command begins an experiment.
CONDUCT A
A - PLUS Experiment Procedure Call. Optional. The operand must be ProcedureCall.
CONDUCT MyExperiment( NumberOfTellers, StartingReplicateNumber )
CONTINUE Command causes a halted simulation to resume.
CONTINUE
EQU Command evaluates an Expression and assigns the result

to a Named Value.
NAME EQU X
NAME - Named Value to receive a value. Required. The field must be Name.
X - Expression. Required. Must be Expression. Expressions are discussed in Section 3.4.
Price EQU 19.95
EXIT Command concludes the GPSS World Session.
EXIT
FUNCTION Command defines the rules for a table lookup.
NAME FUNCTION A,B
586
NAME - Entity Label this entity. Required. The field must be Name.
A - Function argument. Required. The operand must be Name, PosInteger, String,

B - Function type (one letter) followed immediately by the number of data pairs in the
Function Follower Statements. Required.
Type C Functions
Output FUNCTION V$Input,C3
1.1,10.1/20.5,98.7/33.3,889.2
Xpdis FUNCTION RN200,C24
0,0/.1,.104/.2,.222/.3,.355/.4,.509/.5,.69/.6,.915/.7,1.2/.75,1.38
.8,1.6/.84,1.83/.88,2.12/.9,2.3/.92,2.52/.94,2.81/.95,2.99/.96,3.2
.97,3.5/.98,3.9/.99,4.6/.995,5.3/.998,6.2/.999,7/.9998,8
Type D Functions
DIis1 FUNCTION X$A2,D5
1.1,6.9/2.1,7/6.33,9.4/7,10/9.9,12.01
Ran1 FUNCTION RN1,D5
0,0/.2,7.2/.4,6.667/.8,9.92/1.0,10
Type E Functions
Edisc FUNCTION X$QRA,E5
1,S$Stor1/3,S$Stor2/5,S$Stor3/9,S$Stor5/10,S$Stor6
Type L Functions
Listtype FUNCTION Q$Barber,L5
1,PAR1/2,PAR2/3,PAR3/4,PAR4/5,PAR5
Type M Functions
Mlist FUNCTION X$Name1,M5
1,Q$Nnam1/2,Q$NamX/3,Q$Nam4/4,Q$Nam6/5,F$Tan1
FVARIABLE Command defines a "floating point arithmetic"

Variable Entity.
587
NAME FVARIABLE X
X - Expression. Required. Expressions are discussed in Section 3.4.
VAR1 FVARIABLE 5#LOG(Q$WAITINGLINE)
HALT Command interrupts the simulation and purges the

Command Queue.
HALT
INCLUDE Command Translates a file of Model Statements.
INCLUDE A
A - Filespec. A string representing the file specification of the Secondary Model File or
Command List to be Translated. Required. Operand must be String.
INCLUDE "SAMPLE1.GPS"
INITIAL Command initializes a Logicswitch Entity, Savevalue

Entity, or an element of a Matrix Entity.
INITIAL A,B
A - Logicswitch, Savevalue, or Matrix element specified as SNA. Operand A must have the
form of an LS, X, or MX class SNA. Required. The operand must be LSPosInteger,
LS$Name, XPosInteger, X$Name, MXPosInteger(m,n) or MX$Name(m,n). Coordinates (m,n)
must be Name or PosInteger.
B - Value to be assigned. The default is 1. Optional. The operand must be Null, Number,
String or Name.
INITIAL X$Quote,"Now is the time ... "
INITIAL MX$Inventory(Part_39,Stocklevel),200
MATRIX Command defines a GPSS Matrix Entity.
NAME MATRIX A,B,C

A - Unused field (for compatibility with older GPSS implementations).
B - Number of matrix rows. Required. The operand must be PosInteger.
C - Number of matrix columns. Required. The operand must be PosInteger.
588
Inventory MATRIX ,1000,5
QTABLE Command initializes a queue time frequency

distribution table.
NAME QTABLE A,B,C,D

A - Name of Queue Entity. Required. The operand must be PosInteger or Name.
B - Upper limit of first frequency class. The maximum argument which causes the first
frequency class to be updated. Required. The operand must be Number or String.
C - Size of frequency classes. The difference between the upper limit and lower limit of each
frequency class. Required. The operand must be Number or String.
D - Number of frequency classes. The operand must be PosInteger.
WaitTimes QTABLE WaitingLine,100,100,10
REPORT Command causes a report to be created immediately.
REPORT A,B
A - Must be Null.
B - NOW, to write a Standard Report, immediately. Optional. the operand must be NOW or
Null.
RESET Command marks the beginning of a measurement

period.
RESET
RMULT Command sets the seeds for random number

generators.
RMULT A,B,C,D,E,F,G
A - Seed for random number generator number 1. Optional. The operand must be Null, or
PosInteger.
B - Seed for random number generator number 2. Optional. The operand must be Null, or
PosInteger.
C - Seed for random number generator number 3. Optional. The operand must be Null, or
PosInteger.
D - Seed for random number generator number 4. Optional. The operand must be Null, or
PosInteger.
589
E - Seed for random number generator number 5. Optional. The operand must be Null, or
PosInteger.
F - Seed for random number generator number 6. Optional. The operand must be Null, or
PosInteger.
G - Seed for random number generator number 7. Optional. The operand must be Null, or
PosInteger.
RMULT ,,111
SHOW Command sends an Expression for evaluation by the

Simulation Object, and writes the result in the Status Line.
SHOW X
X - Expression.
SHOW 2#LOG(Q$Barber)
SHOW C1
SHOW 4#(SQR(2)+SIN(C1))
SHOW N1^W$Chair
START Command begins a simulation.
START A,B,C,D
A - Termination count. Required. The operand must be PosInteger.
B - Printout operand. NP for "no printout". Default is to print a standard report. Optional. The
operand must be NP or Null.
C - Not used. Kept for compatibility with older dialects of GPSS.
D - Chain printout. 1 to include the CEC and FEC in the standard report. Optional. The
operand must be Null, or PosInteger.
START 1000,,,1
STEP Command causes the simulation to proceed a specified

number of Block entries.
STEP A
A - Block entry count. Required. A must be a positive integer, more formally, PosInteger.
STEP 1
STOP Command sets or removes a Stop Condition.
590
STOP A,B,C
A - Transaction number. A must be a positive integer. If the A Operand is omitted, any
Transaction number will satisfy the condition. Optional. The operand must be Null, or
PosInteger.
B - Block number. If the B Operand is omitted, any Block will satisfy the condition. Optional.
The operand must be Null, Name, or PosInteger.
C - ON or OFF. If the C Operand is omitted, ON is assumed. Optional. The operand must be

ON, OFF or Null.
STOP 100,52
STOP
STOP ,,OFF
STOP 2
STOP ,Chair
STOP ,Chair,OFF
STORAGE Command defines a Storage Entity.
NAME STORAGE A
A - Total storage capacity. Required. The operand must be PosInteger.
MotorPool STORAGE 20
TABLE Command initializes a frequency distribution table.
NAME TABLE A,B,C,D

NAME - Entity Label for this entity. Required. The field must be Name. The length of a Table
name is limited to 32 characters.
A - Table argument. The data item whose frequency distribution is to be tabulated. Required.
The operand must be ParenthesizedExpression, SNA or SNA*Parameter.
B - Upper limit of first frequency class. The maximum argument which causes the first
frequency class to be updated. Required. The operand must be Number or String.
C - Size of frequency classes. The difference between the upper limit and lower limit of each
frequency class. Required. The operand must be Number or String.
D - Number of frequency classes. Required. The operand must be PosInteger.
SalesTable TABLE P$Price,9.95,10,10
591
VARIABLE Command defines an arithmetic Variable Entity.
NAME VARIABLE X
X - Expression. Required. Expressions are discussed in Section 3.4.
Var1 VARIABLE 5#LOG(Q$WaitingLine)
592
‫( اﻟﺼﻔﺎت اﻟﻌﺪدﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم‬3) ‫ﻣﻠﺤﻖ‬
SNAs available in GPSS World:
• A1 - Assembly Set of the Active Transaction. Integer value.
• AC1 - Value of absolute system clock. Simulated time since last CLEAR. Real value.
• BVEntnum - Result of evaluating Boolean Variable Entity Entnum. Real value.
• C1 - Value of relative system clock. Simulated time since last RESET. Real value.
• CAEntnum - Average Userchain content. The time weighted average number of chained
Transactions for Userchain Entnum. Real value.
• CCEntnum - Total Userchain entries. The count of all Transactions chained to Userchain
Entnum. Integer value.
• CHEntnum - Current Userchain content. The current number of Transactions chained to

Userchain Entnum. Integer value.
• CMEntnum - Maximum Userchain content. The maximum number of Transactions chained

to Userchain Entnum. The "high water mark". Integer value.
• CTEntnum - Average Userchain residence time. The average duration of Transactions at

Userchain Entnum. Real value.
• FEntnum - Facility busy. If Facility Entity Entnum is currently busy, FEntnum returns 1.
Otherwise FEntnum returns 0. Integer value.
• FCEntnum - Facility capture count. The number of times Facility Entity Entnum has been
SEIZEd or PREEMPTed by a Transaction. Integer value.
• FIEntnum - Facility Entnum interrupted. If Facility Entity Entnum is currently preempted,

FIEntnum returns 1. Otherwise FIEntnum returns 0. Integer value.
• FNEntnum - Function. Result of evaluating Function Entity Entnum . Real value.
• FREntnum - Facility utilization. The fraction of time Facility Entity Entnum has been busy.
FREntnum is expressed in parts-per-thousand and therefore returns a value 0-1000,
inclusive. May be nonintegral. Real value.
• FTEntnum - Average Facility holding time. The average time Facility Entity Entnum is
owned by a capturing Transaction. Real value.
• FVEntnum - Facility in available state. FVEntnum returns 1 if Facility Entity Entnum is in the
available state, 0 otherwise. Integer value.
• GNEntum - Numeric Group count. GNEntnum returns the membership count of Numeric
Group Entnum. Integer value.
• GTEntnum - Transaction Group count. GTEntnum returns the membership count of

Transaction Group Entnum. Integer value.
593
• LSEntnum - Logicswitch set. LSEntnum returns 1 if Logicswitch Entity is in the "set" state, 0
otherwise. Integer value.
• MBEntnum - Match at Block. MBEntnum returns a 1 if there is a Transaction at Block

Entnum which is in the same Assembly Set as the Active Transaction. MBEntnum returns a 0
otherwise. Integer value.
• MPParameter - Transit Time, Parameter. Current absolute system clock value minus value
in Parameter Parameter. Real value.
• MXEntnum(m,n) - Matrix Savevalue. The value in row m, column n of Matrix Entity Entnum
is returned. In Matrices of more than 2 dimensions, all other indices are assumed to be 1.
Unlike MX class SNAs, PLUS Expressions can refer to any element of a higher dimension
matrix.
• M1 - Transit time. M1 returns the absolute system clock minus the "Mark Time" of the
Transaction. Real value.
• NEntnum - Block entry count. The total number of Transactions which have entered Block
Entnum is returned. Integer value.
• PParameter or *Parameter - Parameter value. PParameter or *Parameter returns the value

of Parameter Parameter of the Active Transaction. Integer, real, or string value.
Indirect addressing uses the notation SNA*Parameter.
• PR - Transaction priority. The value of the priority of the Active Transaction. Integer value.
• QEntnum - Current Queue content. The current count value of Queue Entity Entnum.
Integer value.
• QAEntnum - Average Queue content. The time weighted average count for Queue Entity
Entnum. Real value.
• QCEntnum - Total Queue entries. The sum of all entry counts for Queue Entity Entnum.
Integer value.
• QMEntnum - Maximum Queue content. The maximum count of Queue Entity Entnum. The
"high water mark". Integer value.
• QTEntnum - Average Queue residence time. The time weighted average of the count for
Queue Entity Entnum. Real value.
• QXEntnum - Average Queue residence time excluding zero entries. The time weighted
average of the count for Queue Entity Entnum not counting entries with a zero residence
time. Real value.
• QZEntnum - Queue zero entry count. The number of entries of Queue Entity Entnum with a
zero residence time. Integer value.
• REntnum - Available storage capacity. The storage content (or "tokens") available for use
by entering Transactions at Storage Entity Entnum. Integer value.
• RNEntnum - Random number. RNEntnum returns a random integer 0-999 from Random
Number Generator Entnum. Integer value.
594
• SEntnum - Storage in use. SEntnum returns the amount of storage content (or "tokens")
currently in use by entering Transactions at Storage Entity Entnum. Integer value.
• SAEntnum - Average storage in use. SAEntnum returns the time weighted average of
storage capacity (or "tokens") in use at Storage Entity Entnum. Real value.
• SCEntnum - Storage use count. Total number of storage units that have been acquired
from Storage Entity Entnum. Integer value.
• SEEntnum - Storage empty. SEEntnum returns 1 if Storage Entity Entnum is completely

available, 0 otherwise. Integer value.
• SFEntnum - Storage full. SFEntnum returns 1 if Storage Entity Entnum is completely used,
0 otherwise. Integer value.
• SREntnum - Storage utilization. The fraction of total usage represented by the average
storage in use at Storage Entity Entnum. SREntnum is expressed in parts-per-thousand and
therefore returns a value 0-1000, inclusive. May be nonintegral. Real value.
• SMEntnum - Maximum storage in use at Storage Entity Entnum. The "high water mark".
Integer value.
• STEntnum - Average holding time per unit at Storage Entity Entnum. Real value.
• SVEntnum - Storage in available state. SVEntnum returns 1 if Storage Entity Entnum is in

the available state, 0 otherwise. Integer value.
• TBEntnum - Nonweighted average of entries in Table Entity Entnum. Real value.
• TCEntnum - Count of nonweighted table entries in Table Entity Entnum. Integer value.
• TDEntnum - Standard deviation of nonweighted table entries in Table Entity Entnum. Real
value.
• TG1 - Remaining Termination Count. TG1 returns the count that is decremented by
TERMINATE Blocks with a positive A operand. This value is initialized by START Statements
and indicates completion of the simulation when it is 0. Integer value.
• VEntnum - Result of evaluating arithmetic or floating point Variable Entity Entnum. Real
value.
• WEntnum - Current Block count. The current number of Transactions in Block Entity
Entnum. Integer value.
• XEntnum - Savevalue. The value of Savevalue Entity Entnum is returned. Integer, real, or
string value.
• XN1 - Active Transaction number. The Transaction number of the Active Transaction is
returned. Integer value.
• Z1 - Free memory. Value returned by the Operating System. Integer value.
Special rules apply when a simulation is run in GPSS/PC Compatibility Mode. This
are discussed more fully below.
595
GPSS ‫( ﻋﻤﺎل‬4) ‫ﻣﻠﺤﻖ‬
Operators
Operators are used to combine data elements in Expressions. Data are coerced if a specific
type is required by the operator. For example, if a numeric operation is to be performed on a
variable with a string value, the numeric equivalent derived from the characters in the string is
used.
A Setting is available in the Simulation Page of the Settings Notebook which switches the
roles of the [*] operator and the [#] operator.
The operators used in GPSS World are:
^ Exponentiation. A^B returns A raised to the power of B.
# (or *) Multiplication. A # B returns the numeric product of A and B.
/ Division. A / B returns the quotient of A divided by B.
\ Integer Division. A \ B returns the result of integer division of A by B.
@ Integer Remainder. A @ B returns the modulo division of A by B.
- Subtraction. A - B returns the difference of A and B.
+ Addition. A + B return the sum of A and B.

>= ‘GE’ Greater Than or Equal To. A >= B returns 1 if A is numerically greater than or equal
to B, 0 otherwise.
<= ‘LE’ Less Than or Equal To. A <= B returns 1 if A is numerically less than or equal to B,
0 otherwise.
> ‘G’ Greater Than. A > B returns 1 if A is numerically greater than B, 0 otherwise.
< ‘L’ Less Than. A < B returns 1 if A is numerically less than B, 0 otherwise.
= ‘E’ Equal A = B returns 1 if A is numerically equal to B, 0 otherwise.
!= ‘NE’ Not Equal. A != B returns 1 if A is numerically different from B, 0 otherwise.
& ‘AND’ Logical And. A & B returns 1 if and only if both A and B are non zero, 0 otherwise.
| ‘OR’ Logical Or. A ‘OR’ B returns 1 if A or B or both are non zero, 0 otherwise.
596
Precedence
When Expressions are evaluated, the precedence of operators determines the order of
operations. An operator with a higher precedence is evaluated before an operator with a
lower precedence. The precedence of operators is as follows, from highest to lowest:
^ Exponentiation
# (or *) / \ Multiplication, Division, Integer Division
@ Integer Remainder
-+ Addition, Subtraction
>= <= > < Comparison Operators
= != Equal, Not Equal
& Logical And
| Logical Or
597
‫ﻣﻠﺤﻖ )‪ (5‬أﺷﻜﺎل ﺗﻤﺜﯿﻞ ﻗﻮاﻟﺐ ‪GPSS‬‬
‫‪598‬‬
‫ﻣﻠﺤﻖ )‪(6‬‬
‫ﺑﻌﺾ أﺳﺌﻠﺔ اﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎرات‬
‫اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ وإﺟﺎﺑﺎت ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﻟﮭﺎ‬
‫‪599‬‬
‫ﻗﺴﻢ اﻹﺣﺼﺎء وﺑﺤﻮث اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺎت‬
‫إﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻷول ‪1421‬ھـ‪1422/‬ھـ‬
‫ﻟﻤﺎدة ‪ 241‬ﺑﺤﺚ ) طﺮق اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪( 1‬‬
‫اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ‪ 3‬ﺳﺎﻋﺎت‬
‫أﺟﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺟﻤﯿﻊ اﻷﺳﺌﻠﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﺴﺆال اﻷول‪:‬‬
‫أ( ﺑﯿﻦ ﻓﯿﻢ إذا ﻛﺎن أي ﻣﻦ طﺮق اﻟﺘﻄﺎﺑﻖ اﻟﺨﻄﯿﺔ ‪ Linear Congruential Method‬اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﮫ‬
‫دورة ﻛﺎﻣﻠﺔ‪:‬‬
‫)‪a ) X i = (13 X i −1 + 13) ( mod 16‬‬
‫)‪b) X i = (12 X i −1 + 13) ( mod 16‬‬
‫)‪c) X i = (13 X i −1 + 12 ) ( mod 16‬‬
‫ب( ﻟﻸﻋﺪاد اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪0.488 0.226 0.221 0.043 0.055 0.743 0.081 0.685 0.364 0.012‬‬
‫‪0.372 0.543 0.483 0.050 0.628 0.966 0.750 0.697 0.764 0.040‬‬
‫‪0.404 0.549 0.203 0.990 0.155 0.079 0.789 0.462 0.795 0.190‬‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺎ إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻛﺎي أﺧﺘﺒﺮ اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪H 0 : Ri U 0,1‬‬
‫‪H1 : Ri U 0,1‬‬
‫اﻟﺴﺆال اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ا( ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺎ طﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﺘﺤﻮﯾﻞ اﻟﻌﻜﺴﻲ ‪ Inverse Transform Method‬و اﻷﻋﺪاد اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻓﻘﺮة‬
‫)ب( ﻣﻦ اﻟﺴﺆال اﻷول وﻟﺪ ﺧﻤﺴﺔ ﻗﯿﻢ ﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻟﮫ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﺳﻲ ‪Exponential Distribution‬‬
‫ﺑﺪاﻟﺔ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﺗﺮاﻛﻤﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪1 − e , x ≥ 0‬‬
‫‪λ‬‬
‫‪F ( x ) = ‬‬
‫‪−‬‬ ‫‪x‬‬
‫‪ 0,‬‬ ‫‪x<0‬‬

‫ب( اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﻌﺪد ﻣﺮات إﻋﻄﺎل آﻟﺔ ﺣﻔﺮ ﺑﺌﺮ ﺑﺘﺮول ﻓﻲ اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﻮاﺣﺪ ﺑﺄﺣﺪ اﻟﻤﻮاﻗﻊ ﻟﻤﺪة‬
‫‪ 50‬ﯾﻮﻣﺎ‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫أوﺟﺪ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ إﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ ﻣﻌﻠﻤﻲ ﻟﮭﺬه اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت وﻗﺪر ﻣﻌﺎﻟﻢ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﻘﺘﺮح‪ ،‬أوﺟﺪ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﻲ‬
‫‪ Empirical Distribution‬ﻟﻠﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت أﯾﻀﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ج( ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺎ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﻔﻘﺮة )ب( اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺣﺎﻛﻰ ﯾﺪوﯾﺎ آﻟﺔ اﻟﺤﻔﺮ ﻟﻤﺪة ﻋﺸﺮة أﯾﺎم‪.‬‬
‫‪600‬‬
‫اﻹﺟﺎﺑﺎت اﻟﻨﻤﻮذﺟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫أوﻻ ﻧﺪﺧﻞ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﻓﻲ ﺻﻔﺤﺔ ﻋﻤﻞ ‪ Worksheet‬ﻓﻲ ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ‪ Minitab‬ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫> ‪MTB‬‬ ‫‪set‬‬ ‫‪c1‬‬
‫>‪DATA‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫>‪DATA‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫>‪DATA‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫>‪DATA‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫>‪DATA‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫>‪DATA‬‬ ‫‪end‬‬
‫اﻷﻣﺮ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﯾﻜﻮن ﺟﺪول ﺗﻜﺮار ﻧﺴﺒﻲ وﺗﻜﺮار ﻧﺴﺒﻲ ﻣﺘﺠﻤﻊ ﺻﺎﻋﺪ‪.‬‬
‫;‪MTB > tally c1‬‬
‫;‪SUBC> perc‬‬
‫‪SUBC> cump.‬‬
‫اﻟﻌﻤﻮد اﻷول )‪ (C1‬ﯾﺤﻮي اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﻤﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻋﺪد ﻣﺮات إﻋﻄﺎل آﻟﺔ ﺣﻔﺮ ﺑﺌﺮ ﺑﺘﺮول ﻓﻲ اﻟﯿﻮم‬
‫اﻟﻮاﺣﺪ‪ ،‬اﻟﻌﻤﻮد اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﯾﺤﻮي اﻟﺘﻜﺮار اﻟﻨﺴﺒﻲ و اﻟﻌﻤﻮد اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ اﻟﺘﻜﺮار اﻟﻨﺴﺒﻲ اﻟﻤﺘﺠﻤﻊ اﻟﺼﺎﻋﺪ‪.‬‬
‫‪Summary Statistics for Discrete Variables‬‬
‫‪C1‬‬ ‫‪Percent CumPct‬‬

‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪62.00 62.00‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪30.00 92.00‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪6.00 98.00‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2.00 100.00‬‬
‫ﻧﻀﻊ اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﻤﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻋﺪد ﻣﺮات إﻋﻄﺎل آﻟﺔ ﺣﻔﺮ ﺑﺌﺮ ﺑﺘﺮول ﻓﻲ اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﻮاﺣﺪ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﻤﻮد )‪(C2‬‬
‫واﻟﺘﻜﺮارات اﻟﻨﺴﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺌﻮﯾﺔ )ﻧﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ ﺑﻘﺴﻤﺔ اﻟﺘﻜﺮارات اﻟﻨﺴﺒﯿﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ (100‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﻤﻮد )‪ (C3‬وھﺬه ھﻲ داﻟﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻜﺘﻠﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻋﺪد ﻣﺮات إﻋﻄﺎل آﻟﺔ ﺣﻔﺮ ﺑﺌﺮ ﺑﺘﺮول ﻓﻲ اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﻮاﺣﺪ‬
‫> ‪MTB‬‬ ‫‪set c2‬‬
‫>‪DATA‬‬ ‫‪0 1 2 3‬‬
‫> ‪MTB‬‬ ‫‪set c3‬‬
‫>‪DATA‬‬ ‫‪.62‬‬
‫>‪DATA‬‬ ‫‪.3‬‬
‫>‪DATA‬‬ ‫‪.06‬‬
‫>‪DATA‬‬ ‫‪.02‬‬
‫ﻧﻌﺎﯾﻦ ‪ 50‬ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﻤﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻋﺪد ﻣﺮات إﻋﻄﺎل آﻟﺔ ﺣﻔﺮ ﺑﺌﺮ ﺑﺘﺮول ﻓﻲ اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﻮاﺣﺪ )‪(C1‬‬
‫ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻت )‪ (C3‬وﻧﻀﻌﮭﺎ ﻓﻲ )‪ (C4‬وھﺬه ﺗﻤﺜﻞ ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة آﻟﺔ اﻟﺤﻔﺮ ﻟﻤﺪة ‪ 50‬ﯾﻮﻣﺎ‬
‫;‪MTB > rand 50 c4‬‬
‫‪SUBC> disc c2 c3.‬‬
‫ﻧﻮﺟﺪ اﻟﺘﻜﺮارات اﻟﻨﺴﺒﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫;‪MTB > tally c4‬‬
‫‪SUBC> perc.‬‬
‫‪Summary Statistics for Discrete Variables‬‬
‫‪C4‬‬ ‫‪Percent‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪68.00‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪28.00‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2.00‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2.00‬‬
‫ﻧﺪﺧﻞ اﻟﺘﻜﺮارات اﻟﻨﺴﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺌﻮﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻓﻲ )‪ (C5‬وھﺬه ھﻲ داﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺘﻠﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻋﺪد‬
‫ﻣﺮات إﻋﻄﺎل آﻟﺔ ﺣﻔﺮ ﺑﺌﺮ ﺑﺘﺮول ﻓﻲ اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﻮاﺣﺪ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة )اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪة(‬
‫‪MTB > set c5‬‬

‫‪DATA> .68 .28 .02 .02‬‬
‫‪DATA> end‬‬
‫ﻧﻘﻮم اﻵن ﺑﺈﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻛﺎي ﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ اﻟﺼﻔﺮﯾﺔ أن داﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺘﻠﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻋﺪد ﻣﺮات‬
‫إﻋﻄﺎل آﻟﺔ ﺣﻔﺮ ﺑﺌﺮ ﺑﺘﺮول ﻓﻲ اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﻮاﺣﺪ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة )اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪة( ﻻﺗﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻋﻦ داﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺘﻠﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ‬
‫اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻋﺪد ﻣﺮات إﻋﻄﺎل آﻟﺔ ﺣﻔﺮ ﺑﺌﺮ ﺑﺘﺮول ﻓﻲ اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﻮاﺣﺪ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ )اﻟﻤﺤﺴﻮﺑﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺴﺆال اﻷول( ﺑﺎﻟﺼﯿﻐﺔ‬
‫‪601‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪n‬‬
‫∑ = ‪χ n2−1‬‬
‫) ‪(Oi − Ei‬‬
‫‪i =1‬‬ ‫‪Ei‬‬
‫ﺣﯿﺚ ‪ C5‬ﺗﺤﻮي اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪة و ‪ C3‬ﺗﺤﻮي اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ‪ ،‬اﻷﻣﺮ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﯾﺤﺴﺐ ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻛﺎي وﯾﻀﻌﮫ ﻓﻲ ‪k1‬‬
‫)‪MTB > let k1=sum((c5-c3)**2/c3‬‬
‫‪K1‬‬ ‫‪0.0338065‬‬
‫ھﺬه ھﻲ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻛﺎي اﻟﻤﺤﺴﻮﺑﺔ ﺑـ ‪ 3‬درﺟﺎت ﺣﺮﯾﮫ‬
‫> ‪MTB‬‬ ‫;‪cdf k1 k2‬‬
‫>‪SUBC‬‬ ‫‪chis 3.‬‬
‫> ‪MTB‬‬ ‫‪let k3=1-k2‬‬
‫> ‪MTB‬‬ ‫‪print k3‬‬
‫‪Data Display‬‬
‫‪K3‬‬ ‫‪0.998363‬‬
‫وھﻲ ﺗﺤﺼﺮ ﻣﺴﺎﺣﺔ ‪ 0.998363‬إﻟﻰ ﯾﺴﺎرھﺎ ) إﺣﺘﻤﺎل اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ ‪ 0.0338065‬ھﻮ ‪ (k2) 0.00163651‬وھﻲ أﻗﻞ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ‪ ( 0.025‬أي ﻻﻧﺮﻓﺾ اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ اﻟﺼﻔﺮﯾﺔ‬
‫اﻷواﻣﺮ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﺗﺤﺴﺐ اﻟﺼﯿﻐﺔ‬

‫‪4‬‬
‫) ‪E ( X ) = ∑ xi p ( xi‬‬
‫‪i =1‬‬
‫)‪MTB > let k4=sum(c2*c3‬‬
‫)‪MTB > let k5=sum(c2*c5‬‬
‫‪MTB > print k4 k5‬‬
‫اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪه ھﻲ ‪) 0.48‬ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ‪ (k4‬واﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ھﻲ ‪) 0.38‬ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ‪(k5‬‬
‫‪K4‬‬ ‫‪0.480000‬‬
‫‪K5‬‬ ‫‪0.380000‬‬
‫اﻷواﻣﺮ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﺗﺤﺴﺐ اﻟﺼﯿﻐﺔ‬
‫‪V (X ) = E(X‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫) ‪)− E (X‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪MTB > let k6=sum((c2**2)*c3)-k4**2‬‬

‫‪MTB > let k7=sum((c2**2)*c5)-k5**2‬‬
‫اﻟﺘﺒﺎﯾﻨﺎت ﻓﻲ ‪ k6‬و ‪k7‬‬
‫‪K6‬‬ ‫‪0.489600‬‬
‫‪K7‬‬ ‫‪0.395600‬‬
‫اﻟﺠﺰر اﻟﺘﺮﺑﯿﻌﻲ ﻟﻠﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺗﻌﻄﻲ اﻹﻧﺤﺮاﻓﺎت اﻟﻤﻌﯿﺎرﯾﺔ ﻓﻲ ‪ k8‬و ‪k9‬‬
‫)‪MTB > let k8=sqrt(k6‬‬
‫)‪MTB > let k9=sqrt(k7‬‬
‫‪K8‬‬ ‫‪0.699714‬‬
‫‪K9‬‬ ‫‪0.628967‬‬
‫> ‪MTB‬‬

‫إﺧﺘﺒﺎر أﻋﻤﺎل ﻓﺼﻠﻲ أول ﻟﻠﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ‪1421‬ﻫـ‪1422/‬ﻫـ‬
‫‪602‬‬
‫ﻟﻤﺎدة ‪ 241‬ﺑﺤﺚ ) ﻃﺮق اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪( 1‬‬
‫اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ‪ 2‬ﺳﺎﻋﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﻌﺪد ﻣﺮات إﻋﻄﺎل آﻟﺔ ﺣﻔﺮ ﺑﺌﺮ ﺑﺘﺮول ﻓﻲ اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﻮاﺣﺪ ﺑﺄﺣﺪ اﻟﻤﻮاﻗﻊ ﻟﻤﺪة ‪50‬‬
‫ﯾﻮﻣﺎ‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫)أ( أوﺟﺪ داﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺘﻠﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﻌﺪد ﻣﺮات اﻹﻋﻄﺎل اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ‪ ،‬وﻣﻨﮭﺎ اوﺟﺪ ﻋﺪد ﻣﺮات اﻹﻋﻄﺎﻻت‬
‫اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ و اﻹﻧﺤﺮاف اﻟﻤﻌﯿﺎري ﻟﻌﺪد ﻣﺮات اﻹﻋﻄﺎل اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ‬
‫)ب( أوﺟﺪ داﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﻲ ‪ Empirical Distribution‬ﻟﻌﺪد ﻣﺮات اﻹﻋﻄﺎل اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ‪.‬‬
‫)أ( ﺣﺎﻛﻰ ﯾﺪوﯾﺎ آﻟﺔ اﻟﺤﻔﺮ ﻟﻤﺪة ‪ 50‬ﯾﻮﻣﺎ‪ .‬وﻣﻦ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة أوﺟﺪ اﻟﻤﺘﻄﻠﺒﺎت ﻓﻲ اﻟﻔﻘﺮة )أ( ﻣﻦ‬
‫اﻟﺴﺆال اﻷول‪.‬‬
‫)ب( ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻛﺎي‪ ،‬ھﻞ ﯾﻮﺟﺪ إﺧﺘﻼف ﺑﯿﻦ داﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺘﻠﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪة )ﻣﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺤﻜﺎة( واﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ )اﻟﻤﺤﺴﻮﺑﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺴﺆال اﻷول(‪ ،‬أﺧﺘﺒﺮ ﻋﻨﺪ درﺟﺔ ﺛﻘﺔ ‪95%‬‬
‫‪603‬‬
‫ﻛﻠﯿﺔ اﻟﻌﻠﻮم‬
‫اﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻷﻋﻤﺎل اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ‪ 1422/1421‬ھـ‬

‫ﻟﻤﺎدة ‪ 241‬ﺑﺤﺚ ) اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪(1‬‬
‫اﻟﺰﻣﻦ‪ 2 :‬ﺳﺎﻋﺔ‬
‫)أ( إﺳﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﻄﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﺘﻄﺎﺑﻘﯿﺔ اﻟﺨﻄﯿﺔ ‪ Linear Congruential Method‬ﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﺘﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ‬
‫أرﻗﺎم ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ذات رﻗﻤﯿﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺎ اﻟﻘﯿﻢ ‪X 0 = 27, a = 8, c = 47, m = 100‬‬
‫)ب( إﺳﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﻄﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﺘﻄﺎﺑﻘﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻀﺎﻋﻔﯿﺔ ‪ Multiplicative Congruential Method‬ﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻣﺘﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻦ ارﺑﻌﺔ أرﻗﺎم ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ذات ﺛﻼﺛﺔ ارﻗﺎم ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺎ اﻟﻘﯿﻢ ‪X 0 = 117, a = 43, m = 1000‬‬
‫إﺳﺘﺨﺪم إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻛﻮﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮروف – ﺳﻤﯿﺮﻧﻮف ‪ Kolmogorov-Smirnov‬ﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ ﻓﯿﻤﺎ إذا‬
‫ﻛﺎﻧﺖ اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ‬
‫‪0.136‬‬ ‫‪0.513‬‬ ‫‪0.844‬‬ ‫‪0.681‬‬ ‫‪0.154‬‬ ‫‪0.239‬‬ ‫‪0.888‬‬ ‫‪0.090‬‬ ‫‪0.631‬‬ ‫‪0.245‬‬
‫‪0.394‬‬ ‫‪0.531‬‬ ‫‪0.715‬‬ ‫‪0.276‬‬ ‫‪0.880‬‬
‫ﻟﮭﺎ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﻨﺘﻈﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻔﺘﺮة ]‪ [0,1‬ام ﻻ؟ ﺧﺬ ‪. α = 0.05‬‬
‫اﻟﺴﺆال اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ‪:‬‬
‫ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ‪ X‬ﻟﮫ داﻟﺔ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ إﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬
‫‪0,‬‬ ‫‪x≤2‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪  x − 1 ,‬‬ ‫‪2< x≤3‬‬
‫‪ 2 ‬‬
‫‪F ( x) = ‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪ 1‬‬ ‫‪x‬‬
‫‪1 − 3  3 − 2  , 3 < x ≤ 6‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪1,‬‬ ‫‪x>6‬‬
‫)أ( وﻟﺪ ﻋﯿﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ 15‬ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ‪.‬‬
‫)ب( أﺣﺴﺐ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ وﻗﺎرﻧﮭﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺮﯾﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪604‬‬
‫ ھـ‬1422/1421 ‫إﺟﺎﺑﺎت ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﻟﻺﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻷﻋﻤﺎل اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‬
(1 ‫ ﺑﺤﺚ )ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة‬241 ‫اﻟﻤﺪة‬
:‫إﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﺆال اﻷول‬

(‫)أ‬
Linear Congruential Method
X i +1 = ( aX i + c ) mod m, i = 0,1, 2,...
Xi
Ri = , i = 1, 2,...
m
X 0 = 27, a = 8, c = 47, m = 100
X 1 = ( 8 × 27 + 47 ) = 263 = 63 mod100
X 1 63
R1 = = = 0.63
m 100
X 2 = ( 8 × 63 + 47 ) = 551 = 51 mod100
X 2 51
R2 = = = 0.51
m 100
X 3 = ( 8 × 51 + 47 ) = 455 = 55 mod100
X 3 55
R3 = = = 0.55
m 100
0.63,0.51,0.55 :‫إذا اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ھﻲ‬
(‫)ب‬
Multiplicative Congruential Method
X i +1 = aX i , mod m, i = 0,1,2,...
Xi
Ri = , i = 1, 2,...
m
X 0 = 117, a = 43, m = 1000
X 1 = 43 × 117 = 5031 = 031 mod1000
031
R1 = = 0.031
1000
X 2 = 43 × 031 = 1333 = 333 mod1000
333
R2 = = 0.333
1000
X 3 = 43 × 333 = 14319 = 319 mod1000
319
R3 = = 0.319
1000
X 4 = 43 × 319 = 13717 = 717 mod1000
717
R4 = = 0.717
1000
605
‫إذا اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ھﻲ‪0.031,0.333,0.319,0.717 :‬‬
‫إﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﺆال اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‪:‬‬

‫ﺧﻮارزم إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻛﻮﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮروف‪-‬ﺳﻤﯿﺮﻧﻮف‬
‫ﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ‬
‫]‪H 0 : {R1 , R2 ,..., RN } ~ U [0,1‬‬
‫]‪H1 : {R1 , R2 ,..., RN } L U [0,1‬‬
‫ﻧﺘﺒﻊ اﻟﺨﻄﻮات اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﺨﻄﻮة ‪ : 1‬رﺗﺐ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﻣﻦ اﻷﺻﻐﺮ ﻟﻸﻛﺒﺮ‪ .‬دع ) ‪ R(i‬ﺗﺮﻣﺰ إﻟﻲ اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪة ذات اﻟﺮﺗﺒﺔ ‪ i‬ﺑﺤﯿﺚ‬
‫ﯾﻜﻮن ) ‪R(1) ≤ R( 2 ) ≤ ... ≤ R( N‬‬
‫اﻟﺨﻄﻮة ‪ : 2‬أﺣﺴﺐ اﻟﻜﻤﯿﺎت‬
‫‪i‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪D + = max  − R(i ) ‬‬
‫‪1≤i ≤ N  N‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪i −1‬‬
‫‪D − = max  R(i ) −‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪1≤i ≤ N ‬‬ ‫‪N ‬‬
‫اﻟﺨﻄﻮة ‪ : 3‬أﺣﺴﺐ ) ‪D = max ( D + , D −‬‬
‫اﻟﺨﻄﻮة ‪ : 4‬ﻋﯿﻦ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺤﺮﺟﺔ ‪ Dα‬ﻣﻦ ﺟﺪول اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﺤﺮﺟﺔ ﻟﻜﻮﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮروف‪ -‬ﺳﻤﯿﺮﻧﻮف‬
‫ﻟﻤﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﻤﻌﻨﻮﯾﺔ ‪ α‬اﻟﻤﺤﺪد وﻟﺤﺠﻢ اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ ‪ N‬اﻟﻤﻌﻄﻰ‬
‫اﻟﺨﻄﻮة ‪ : 5‬إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ إﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ ‪ D‬أﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺤﺮﺟﺔ ‪ Dα‬ﻓﺈﻧﻨﺎ ﻧﺮﻓﺾ اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺼﻔﺮﯾﺔ أن اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ ﺗﺄﺗﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﻨﺘﻈﻢ‪ .‬إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ‪ D ≤ Dα‬ﻓﺈﻧﻨﺎ ﻧﻘﺮر اﻧﮫ ﻻﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﻓﺮق ﻣﻌﻨﻮي‬
‫ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﻲ ﻟﻸرﻗﺎم } ‪ {R1 , R2 ,..., RN‬واﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﻨﺘﻈﻢ‪.‬‬
‫ﻧﺮﺗﺐ اﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺟﺪول ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫)‪R(I‬‬ ‫‪I‬‬ ‫‪I/N‬‬ ‫‪(I-1)/N R(I)-(I/N) ((I-1)/N)-R(I) |R(I)-(I/N)| |((I-1)/N)-R(I)| max|(R(I)-(I/N)| max|((I-1)/N)-R(I)| D‬‬
‫‪0.09‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.0667‬‬ ‫‪0 0.02333‬‬ ‫‪-0.09 0.023333‬‬ ‫‪0.09‬‬ ‫‪0.124‬‬ ‫‪0.09 0.124‬‬
‫‪0.136‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.1333 0.0667 0.00267 -0.0693333 0.002667 0.069333333‬‬
‫‪0.154‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.2 0.1333‬‬ ‫‪-0.046 -0.0206667‬‬ ‫‪0.046 0.020666667‬‬
‫‪0.239‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.2667‬‬ ‫‪0.2 -0.0277‬‬ ‫‪-0.039 0.027667‬‬ ‫‪0.039‬‬
‫‪0.245‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0.3333 0.2667 -0.0883 0.02166667 0.088333 0.021666667‬‬
‫‪0.276‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪0.4 0.3333‬‬ ‫‪-0.124 0.05733333‬‬ ‫‪0.124 0.057333333‬‬
‫‪0.394‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪0.4667‬‬ ‫‪0.4 -0.0727‬‬ ‫‪0.006 0.072667‬‬ ‫‪0.006‬‬
‫‪0.513‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪0.5333 0.4667 -0.0203 -0.0463333 0.020333 0.046333333‬‬
‫‪0.531‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪0.6 0.5333‬‬ ‫‪-0.069 0.00233333‬‬ ‫‪0.069 0.002333333‬‬
‫‪0.631‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪0.6667‬‬ ‫‪0.6 -0.0357‬‬ ‫‪-0.031 0.035667‬‬ ‫‪0.031‬‬
‫‪0.681‬‬ ‫‪11‬‬ ‫‪0.7333 0.6667 -0.0523 -0.0143333 0.052333 0.014333333‬‬
‫‪0.715‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪0.8 0.7333‬‬ ‫‪-0.085 0.01833333‬‬ ‫‪0.085 0.018333333‬‬
‫‪0.844‬‬ ‫‪13‬‬ ‫‪0.8667‬‬ ‫‪0.8 -0.0227‬‬ ‫‪-0.044 0.022667‬‬ ‫‪0.044‬‬
‫‪0.88‬‬ ‫‪14‬‬ ‫‪0.9333 0.8667 -0.0533 -0.0133333 0.053333 0.013333333‬‬
‫‪0.888‬‬ ‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪1 0.9333‬‬ ‫‪-0.112 0.04533333‬‬ ‫‪0.112 0.045333333‬‬
‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻤﻮدﯾﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ اﻷﺧﯿﺮ ﻧﺠﺪ ‪ D + = 0.124‬و ‪ D − = 0.09‬وﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻮد اﻷﺧﯿﺮ ‪D = 0.124‬‬
‫ﻣﻦ ﺟﺪول اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﺤﺮﺟﺔ ﻟﻜﻮﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮروف‪ -‬ﺳﻤﯿﺮﻧﻮف وﺗﺤﺖ اﻟﻌﻤﻮد ‪ D0.05‬واﻟﺴﻄﺮ ‪ N = 15‬ﻧﺠﺪ‬
‫ان اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺤﺮﺟﺔ ھﻲ ‪D0.05,15 = 0.338‬‬
‫‪606‬‬
‫اﻟﻘﺮار‪ :‬ﺑﻤﺎ أن ‪ D = 0.124 < D0.05,15 = 0.338‬ﻓﺈﻧﻨﺎ ﻻ ﻧﺮﻓﺾ اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ اﻟﺼﻔﺮﯾﺔ أن اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات‬
‫ﺗﺄﺗﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﻨﺘﻈﻢ‪.‬‬
‫إﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﺆال اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ‪:‬‬
‫)أ(‬
‫‪For 2 < X ≤ 3‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪X‬‬ ‫‪‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫≤ ‪R =  − 1  ,0 < R‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪∴X = 2‬‬ ‫(‬ ‫)‬
‫‪R + 1 , when 0 < R ≤ 0.25‬‬
‫‪For 3 < X ≤ 6‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪X 1‬‬
‫‪R = 1− 3−  , < R ≤ 1‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2 4‬‬
‫‪∴ X = 6 − 2 3R , when 0.25 < R ≤ 1‬‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪم ‪ Microsoft Excel‬ﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻋﯿﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ 15‬ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻣﻦ ‪ Tools‬ﻧﺨﺘﺎر ‪ Data Analysis‬وﻣﻦ ﺻﻨﺪوق اﻹﺧﺘﯿﺎرات ﻧﺨﺘﺎر ‪Random Numbers‬‬
‫‪ Generation‬ﺛﻢ ﻧﻤﻠﺊ اﻟﺨﺎﻧﺎت )‪ Number of Variables (=1‬و ‪Number of Random Numbers‬‬
‫)‪ (=15‬و ﻣﻦ ‪ Distributions‬ﻧﺨﺘﺎر ‪ Uniform‬وﻓﻲ ﺧﺎﻧﺔ ‪ Parameters‬ﻧﺄﺧﺬ )‪ Between (=0‬و ‪and‬‬
‫)‪ (=1‬وﻓﻲ ‪ Random Seed‬ﻧﺨﺘﺎر رﻗﻢ أوﻟﻲ وﻟﯿﻜﻦ ‪ 31‬وﻓﻲ ‪ Output options‬ﻧﺨﺘﺎر ‪Output‬‬
‫‪ Range‬وﻧﻜﺘﺐ ﻓﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬﺗﮭﺎ ‪ A1:A15‬ﺛﻢ ‪. OK‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻧﺤﺪد اﻟﺨﻠﯿﺔ ‪ B1‬ﺛﻢ ﻓﻲ ﻧﺎﻓﺬة اﻹدﺧﺎل ﻧﻜﺘﺐ‬
‫))‪=IF(0<=A1<=0.25,B1=2+SQRT(A1)+1,6-2*SQRT(3*A1‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﻧﺤﺪد اﻟﺨﻠﯿﺔ ‪ B1‬ﻣﺮة اﺧﺮى ﺛﻢ ﻧﻨﺴﺨﮭﺎ وﻧﻠﺼﻘﮭﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺨﻼﯾﺎ ‪ B2‬وﺣﺘﻰ ‪B15‬‬
‫‪0.004242073‬‬ ‫‪5.774378915‬‬
‫‪0.404065065‬‬ ‫‪3.798005271‬‬
‫‪0.548448134‬‬ ‫‪3.434580423‬‬
‫‪0.839350566‬‬ ‫‪2.826325979‬‬
‫‪0.028290658‬‬ ‫‪5.417344099‬‬
‫‪0.074861904‬‬ ‫‪5.052190502‬‬
‫‪0.199804682‬‬ ‫‪4.451563311‬‬
‫‪0.215948973‬‬ ‫‪4.390221234‬‬
‫‪0.939634388‬‬ ‫‪2.642082095‬‬
‫‪0.117862484‬‬ ‫‪4.810735604‬‬
‫‪0.03869747‬‬ ‫‪5.318553274‬‬
‫‪0.8992584‬‬ ‫‪2.715018904‬‬
‫‪0.979247414‬‬ ‫‪2.572031365‬‬
‫‪0.6621601‬‬ ‫‪3.181148957‬‬
‫‪0.621539964‬‬ ‫‪3.268978292‬‬
‫)ب( ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪ Excel‬ﻧﺠﺪ ان ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ ‪3.976877‬‬

‫اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﻟﻨﻈﺮي ﻟﻠﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺜﻠﺜﻲ ھﻮ‬
‫‪a + b + c 2 + 3 + 6 11‬‬
‫= ) ‪E(X‬‬ ‫=‬ ‫‪= = 3.66667‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪607‬‬
‫اﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻨﮭﺎﺋﻲ ﻟﻠﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ‪ 1422/1421‬ھـ‬

‫ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ زﻣﻦ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل ﻟﻠﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﺑﺎﻟﺪﻗﯿﻘﺔ إﻟﻰ دﻛﺎن أﺣﺪ اﻟﺤﻼﻗﯿﻦ ﯾﻌﻄﻲ ﺑﺎﻟﺠﺪول‪:‬‬
‫‪Time Between Arrivals‬‬ ‫‪Probability‬‬

‫)‪(Minutes‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.23‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.37‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.28‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.12‬‬
‫)أ( وﻟﺪ أزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ وﺻﻮل ﻟﻌﺪد ‪ 50‬زﺑﻮﻧﺎ‪.‬‬

‫)ب( ﻛﻮن ﻣﺪرج ﺗﻜﺮاري ﻟﻸزﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﻤﻮﻟﺪة ﻓﻲ اﻟﻔﻘﺮة اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫)ج( أﺧﺘﺒﺮ ﺟﻮدة اﻟﺘﻮﻓﯿﻖ ﻟﻸزﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﻤﻮﻟﺪة ) اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪة ‪ ( O‬ﻣﻊ اﻷزﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﻤﻌﻄﺎه ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺪول‬
‫‪( χ 3,0.05‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫)اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ‪ .( E‬ﺧﺬ ‪= 7.81 ) . α = 0.05‬‬
‫ﻟﻸرﻗﺎم اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪) :‬إﻗﺮأ ﻣﻦ اﻟﯿﺴﺎر ﻟﻠﯿﻤﯿﻦ ﺳﻄﺮا ﺑﺴﻄﺮ(‬
‫‪0.25 0.01 0.93 0.70 0.66 0.74 0.79 0.47 0.68 0.18 0.88 0.07 0.99 0.51 0.04 0.01‬‬
‫‪0.43 0.60 0.59 0.55 0.64 0.10 0.61 0.22 0.85 0.42 0.01 0.98 0.05 0.20 0.11 0.23‬‬
‫‪0.68 0.41 0.96 0.48 0.11 0.59 0.11 0.10‬‬
‫)أ( أﺳﺘﺨﺪم إﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﺠﺮي ‪ Runs Test‬ﻓﻮق وﺗﺤﺖ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻓﯿﻤﺎ إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ھﺬه اﻷرﻗﺎم‬
‫ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ‪ .‬ﺧﺬ‬
‫) ‪2n1n2 1 2 2n1n2 ( 2n1n2 − N‬‬ ‫‪b − ( 2n1n2 N ) − 1 2‬‬
‫= ‪µb‬‬ ‫= ‪+ ,σb‬‬ ‫= ‪, Z0‬‬
‫‪N‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫)‪N ( N − 1‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪ 2n1n2 ( 2n1n2 − N ) ‬‬
‫‪12‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪N 2 ( N − 1) ‬‬
‫‪α = 0.05, z0.025 = 1.96‬‬
‫‪608‬‬
‫)ب( ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﺴﻄﺮ اﻷول ﻣﻦ اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ وﻟﺪ ﻗﯿﻢ ﻟـ ‪ 8‬ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮات ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﺗﺘﺒﻊ داﻟﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪0,‬‬ ‫‪x≤0‬‬
‫‪ 2‬‬
‫‪x ,‬‬ ‫‪0 < x ≤1‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪F ( x) = ‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪1 − ( 2 − x ) ,‬‬ ‫‪1< x ≤ 2‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬‫‪1,‬‬ ‫‪x>2‬‬
‫ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام طﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﻘﺒﻮل واﻟﺮﻓﺾ ‪ Acceptance-Rejection Technique‬وﻟﺪ ﻗﯿﻢ ﻟـ ‪ 8‬ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮات‬
‫ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﺗﺘﺒﻊ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﺑﻮاﺳﻮن ‪ Poisson Variates‬ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ . ( e −0.2 = 0.8187 ) λ = 0.2‬إﺳﺘﺨﺪم‬
‫اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺴﺆال اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﺳﻄﺮا ﺑﺴﻄﺮ‪ .‬ﺧﻄﻮات اﻟﺨﻮارزم ھﻲ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﺨﻄﻮة ‪ :1‬ﺿﻊ ‪ n = 0‬و ‪. P = 1‬‬
‫اﻟﺨﻄﻮة ‪ :2‬وﻟﺪ رﻗﻢ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ‪ Rn+1‬وﺑﺪل ‪ P‬ﺑـ ‪. P × Rn +1‬‬
‫اﻟﺨﻄﻮة ‪ :3‬إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ‪ P < e− λ‬ﻋﻨﺪﺋﺬ إﻗﺒﻞ ‪ N = n‬وإﻻ أرﻓﺾ ‪ n‬اﻟﺤﺎﻟﯿﺔ وزد ‪ n‬ﺑﻮاﺣﺪ وﻋﺪ‬
‫ﻟﻠﺨﻄﻮة ‪. 2‬‬
‫‪609‬‬

‫)‪Time Between Arrivals (Minutes‬‬ ‫‪Probability‬‬

‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.23‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.37‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.28‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.12‬‬

‫‪( χ 3,0.05‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫)اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ‪ .( E‬ﺧﺬ ‪= 7.81 ) . α = 0.05‬‬
‫‪0.25 0.01 0.93 0.70 0.66 0.74 0.79 0.47 0.68 0.18 0.88 0.07 0.99 0.51 0.04 0.01‬‬
‫‪0.43 0.60 0.59 0.55 0.64 0.10 0.61 0.22 0.85 0.42 0.01 0.98 0.05 0.20 0.11 0.23‬‬
‫‪0.68 0.41 0.96 0.48 0.11 0.59 0.11 0.10‬‬
‫) ‪2n1n2 1 2 2n1n2 ( 2n1n2 − N‬‬ ‫‪b − ( 2n1n2 N ) − 1 2‬‬
‫= ‪µb‬‬ ‫= ‪+ ,σb‬‬ ‫= ‪, Z0‬‬
‫‪N‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫)‪N ( N − 1‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪ 2n1n2 ( 2n1n2 − N ) ‬‬
‫‪12‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪N 2 ( N − 1) ‬‬
‫‪α = 0.05, z0.025 = 1.96‬‬
‫)ب( ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﺴﻄﺮ اﻷول ﻣﻦ اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ وﻟﺪ ‪ 6‬ﻗﯿﻢ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻣﺘﻘﻄﻊ‬
‫)ﻣﻨﻔﺼﻞ( ﯾﺘﺒﻊ داﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪x‬‬
‫= )‪F ( x‬‬ ‫‪, x = 1, 2,L ,6‬‬
‫‪6‬‬
‫)ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ‪ :‬ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮل ﻋﻠﻲ أرﻗﺎم ﺻﺤﯿﺤﺔ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ‪  x  = smallest integer ≥ x‬أي أﺻﻐﺮ‬
‫ﻋﺪد ﺻﺤﯿﺢ أﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ أو ﯾﺴﺎوي ‪. x‬‬
‫‪610‬‬
‫)ج( ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام طﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﻘﺒﻮل واﻟﺮﻓﺾ ‪ Acceptance-Rejection Technique‬وﻟﺪ ‪ 4‬ﻗﯿﻢ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﯾﺘﺒﻊ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﺑﻮاﺳﻮن ‪ Poisson Variates‬ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪. ( e −0.2 = 0.8187 ) λ = 0.2‬‬
‫إﺳﺘﺨﺪم اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺴﺆال اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﺳﻄﺮا ﺑﺴﻄﺮ‪ .‬ﺧﻄﻮات اﻟﺨﻮارزم ھﻲ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﺨﻄﻮة ‪ :1‬ﺿﻊ ‪ n = 0‬و ‪. P = 1‬‬

‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.30‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬

‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬
‫ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ‪ :‬اﺳﺘﺨﺪم اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺴﺆال اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‪ .‬اﺳﺘﺨﺪم رﻗﻤﺎ ﺟﺪﯾﺪا ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺮة وﺗﻌﺎد‬
‫ﻗﺮاﺋﺔ اﻷرﻗﺎم ﻣﻦ أول اﻟﺠﺪول ﻛﻞ ﻣﺎ ﯾﻨﺘﮭﻲ(‪.‬‬
‫‪611‬‬
‫إﺟﺎﺑﺎت ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﻟﻺﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻨﮭﺎﺋﻲ ﻟﻠﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ‪1422/1421‬ھـ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺎدة ‪ 241‬ﺑﺤﺚ‬
‫إﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﺆال اﻷول‪:‬‬
‫)أ(‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫)ب(‬
‫‪x‬‬ ‫) ‪Count ( Oi‬‬ ‫)‪p ( x‬‬

‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪13‬‬ ‫‪0.26‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪21‬‬ ‫‪0.42‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪0.24‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.80‬‬
‫‪20‬‬
‫‪Frequency‬‬
‫‪10‬‬
‫‪0‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬

‫‪C8‬‬
‫)ج( ﻧﺤﺴﺐ اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ‪Ei‬‬

‫‪E1 = 50 × 0.23 = 11.5‬‬
‫‪E2 = 50 × 0.37 = 18.5‬‬
‫‪E3 = 50 × 0.28 = 14‬‬
‫‪E4 = 50 × 0.12 = 6‬‬
‫وﻧﺤﺴﺐ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻛﺎي‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫∑= ‪χ‬‬‫‪2‬‬
‫‪k‬‬
‫) ‪(Oi − Ei‬‬ ‫=‬
‫)‪(13 − 11.5‬‬ ‫‪+‬‬
‫)‪( 21 − 18.5‬‬ ‫‪+‬‬
‫) ‪(12 − 14‬‬ ‫‪+‬‬
‫)‪(4 − 6‬‬
‫‪0‬‬
‫‪i =1‬‬ ‫‪Ei‬‬ ‫‪11.5‬‬ ‫‪18.5‬‬ ‫‪14‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫‪= 0.195652 + 0.337838 + 0.285714 + 0.666666 = 1.4859‬‬
‫‪Q χ 02 = 1.4859 < 7.81 = χ 3,0.05‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪612‬‬
.‫ﻻﻧﺮﻓﺾ اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ اﻟﻘﺎﺋﻠﺔ ﺑﺄن اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻮﻟﺪة ﺗﺘﺒﻊ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﻌﻄﻰ ﺑﺎﻟﺠﺪول‬
‫ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬:‫إﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﺆال اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‬

µ = 0.4485
‫ﻧﻮﺟﺪ اﻟﺠﺮي ﻓﻮق وﺗﺤﺖ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬
- - + + + + + + + - + - + + -
- - + + + + - + - + - - + - -
- - + - + + - + - -
b = 21 , n1 = 21 , n2 = 19 , N = 40
2 × 21 × 19 1
µb = + = 20.45
40 2
2 × 21 × 19 × ( 2 × 21 × 19 − 40 ) 604884
σ b2 = 2 = = 9.693654
( 40 ) ( 40 − 1) 62400
21 − 20.45 0.55
Z0 = = = 0.17665
9.693654 3.11346
Q Z 0 = 0.17665 < 1.96 = z0.025
.‫ﻓﺈﻧﻨﺎ ﻻﻧﺮﻓﺾ اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ اﻟﻘﺎﺋﻠﺔ أن ھﺬه اﻷرﻗﺎم ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ‬
(‫)ب‬
x
F ( x) = = R, x = 1, 2,...,6; R U ( 0,1)
6
X
∴ =R
6
X = 6 R, R U ( 0,1)
‫ ﻧﺄﺧﺬ‬6 ‫ و‬1 ‫ ﺑﯿﻦ‬X ‫وﻟﻜﻲ ﻧﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ أرﻗﺎم ﺻﺤﯿﺤﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ‬
X =  6 R  , R U ( 0,1)
:‫اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ھﻲ‬
X 1 =  6 × 0.25 = 1.5 = 2, X 2 =  6 × 0.01 =  0.06 = 1, X 3 =  6 × 0.93 = 5.58 = 6
X 4 =  6 × 0.70 =  4.2  = 5, X 5 =  6 × 0.66 = 3.96 = 4, X 6 = 6 × 0.74  =  4.44  = 5
2,1,6,5,4,5 ‫أي‬
(‫)ج‬
step 1: set n = 0, P = 1
step 2 : R1 = 0.25, P → P × R1 , P = 1 × 0.25 = 0.25
step 3 : Sice P = 0.25 < e − λ = 0.8187, accept N = 0.
step 1: set n = 0, P = 1
step 2 : R1 = 0.01, P → P × R1 , P = 1 × 0.01 = 0.01
step 1: set n = 0, P = 1
step 2 : R1 = 0.93, P → P × R1 , P = 1 × 0.93 = 0.93
step 3 : Sice P = 0.93 ≥ e − λ = 0.8187, reject n = 0, and return to step 2 with n = 1.
step 2 : R2 = 0.70, P → P × R2 , P = 0.93 × 0.70 = 0.65
613
‫‪step 1: set n = 0, P = 1‬‬
‫‪step 2 : R1 = 0.66, P → P × R1 , P = 1 × 0.66 = 0.66‬‬
‫‪step 3 : Sice P = 0.66 < e − λ = 0.8187, accept N = 0.‬‬
‫إذا ‪ 4‬ﻗﯿﻢ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ھﻲ‪0,0,1,0 :‬‬
‫ﻧﻌﺪ ﺟﺪول )‪ (1‬ﻟﻌﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﻟﻜﻞ ﯾﻮم‬
‫‪Number of Customers‬‬ ‫‪CDF‬‬ ‫‪Random Number‬‬

‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.01 - 0.35‬‬
‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪0.65‬‬ ‫‪0.36 - 0.65‬‬
‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪0.90‬‬ ‫‪0.66 – 0.90‬‬
‫‪14‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.91 - 1‬‬
‫ﻧﻌﺪ ﺟﺪول )‪ (2‬ﻟﻌﺪد اﻷرﻏﻔﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ زﺑﻮن‬
‫‪Number of Loafs‬‬ ‫‪CDF‬‬ ‫‪Random Number‬‬

‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.40‬‬ ‫‪0.01 - 0.40‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪0.70‬‬ ‫‪0.41 - 0.70‬‬
‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪0.90‬‬ ‫‪0.71 – 0.90‬‬
‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.91 - 1‬‬
‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻷول‪ R = 0.25 :‬وﻣﻦ ﺟﺪول )‪ (1‬ﻧﺠﺪ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ‪8‬‬
‫‪Customer Number‬‬ ‫‪R‬‬ ‫‪Number of Loafs‬‬

‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.01‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.93‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.70‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.66‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0.74‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪0.79‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪0.47‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪0.68‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬ ‫‪Total = 76‬‬
‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‪ R = 0.18 :‬وﻣﻦ ﺟﺪول )‪ (1‬ﻧﺠﺪ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ‪8‬‬

‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.88‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.07‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.99‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.51‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0.04‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪0.01‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪0.43‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪0.60‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬ ‫‪Total = 64‬‬
‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ‪ R = 0.59 :‬وﻣﻦ ﺟﺪول )‪ (1‬ﻧﺠﺪ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ‪10‬‬
‫‪614‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.55‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.64‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.61‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0.22‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪0.85‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪0.42‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪0.01‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪0.98‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬
‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪04 Total = 76‬‬
‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ‪ R = 0.20 :‬وﻣﻦ ﺟﺪول )‪ (1‬ﻧﺠﺪ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ‪8‬‬

‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.11‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.23‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.68‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.41‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0.96‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪0.48‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪0.11‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪0.59‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬ ‫‪Total = 60‬‬
‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ‪ R = 0.11 :‬وﻣﻦ ﺟﺪول )‪ (1‬ﻧﺠﺪ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ‪8‬‬

‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.01‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.93‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0.70‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪0.66‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪0.74‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪0.79‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪Total = 64‬‬
‫وھﻜﺬا ﻓﺈن ﻋﺪد أﻷرﻏﻔﺔ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺧﻤﺴﺔ أﯾﺎم ھﻲ‪ 76,64,76,60,64 :‬رﻏﯿﻔﺎ‪ .‬إذا ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬
‫ﻋﺪد اﻷرﻏﻔﺔ ھﻮ ‪ 68‬رﻏﯿﻔﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪615‬‬
‫اﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻨﮭﺎﺋﻲ ﻟﻠﻔﺼﻞ اﻷول ‪ 1423/1422‬ھـ‬

‫ﺳﺠﻠﺖ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﺰﻣﻦ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻓﻲ أﺣﺪ طﻮاﺑﯿﺮ ﻧﻈﺎم ﻟﻌﺪد ‪ 50‬زﺑﻮﻧﺎ‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫طﺒﻖ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ إﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻟﮭﺬه اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات‪.‬‬ ‫أ(‬
‫وﻟﺪ ‪ 20‬زﻣﻦ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﮭﺬا اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪.‬‬ ‫ب(‬
‫وﻟﺪ ‪ 20‬ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻣﺘﻘﻄﻊ )ﻣﻨﻔﺼﻞ( ﯾﺘﺒﻊ داﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪x‬‬
‫= )‪F ( x‬‬ ‫‪, x = 1, 2,L ,6‬‬
‫‪6‬‬
‫)ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ‪ :‬ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮل ﻋﻠﻲ أرﻗﺎم ﺻﺤﯿﺤﺔ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ‪  x  = smallest integer ≥ x‬أي أﺻﻐﺮ‬
‫ﻋﺪد ﺻﺤﯿﺢ أﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ أو ﯾﺴﺎوي ‪. x‬‬

‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.30‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬

‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬
‫ﺣﺎﻛﻲ ﯾﺪوﯾﺎ ‪ 10‬أﯾﺎم ﻋﻤﻞ وﺣﺪد ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﺪد اﻷرﻏﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﻌﺪھﺎ اﻟﺨﺒﺎز ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪616‬‬

‫ﺳﺠﻠﺖ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﺰﻣﻦ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻓﻲ أﺣﺪ طﻮاﺑﯿﺮ ﻧﻈﺎم ﻟﻌﺪد ‪ 50‬زﺑﻮﻧﺎ‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫ت( طﺒﻖ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ إﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻟﮭﺬه اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات‪.‬‬
‫ث( وﻟﺪ ‪ 20‬زﻣﻦ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﮭﺬا اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪.‬‬
‫وﻟﺪ ‪ 20‬ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻣﺘﻘﻄﻊ )ﻣﻨﻔﺼﻞ( ﯾﺘﺒﻊ داﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪x‬‬
‫= )‪F ( x‬‬
‫‪, x = 1, 2,L ,6‬‬
‫‪6‬‬
‫)ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ‪ :‬ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮل ﻋﻠﻲ أرﻗﺎم ﺻﺤﯿﺤﺔ ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ ‪  x  = smallest integer ≥ x‬أي أﺻﻐﺮ ﻋﺪد‬
‫ﺻﺤﯿﺢ أﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ أو ﯾﺴﺎوي ‪. x‬‬
‫ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام طﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﻘﺒﻮل واﻟﺮﻓﺾ ‪ Acceptance-Rejection Technique‬وﻟﺪ ‪ 5‬ﻗﯿﻢ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﯾﺘﺒﻊ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﺑﻮاﺳﻮن ‪ Poisson Variates‬ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪. λ = 0.5‬‬
‫ﺧﻄﻮات اﻟﺨﻮارزم ھﻲ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﺨﻄﻮة ‪ :1‬ﺿﻊ ‪ n = 0‬و ‪. P = 1‬‬
‫اﻟﺴﺆال اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ‪:‬‬
‫ﯾﺮﯾﺪ أﺣﺪ اﻟﺨﺒﺎزﯾﻦ ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﺪد أرﻏﻔﺔ أﻟﺨﺒﺰ اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﻌﺪھﺎ ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ‪ .‬اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ أﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻟﻌﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‬
‫ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ ﯾﻌﻄﻰ ﺑﺎﻟﺠﺪول‪:‬‬
‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.30‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬
‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬
‫‪617‬‬
‫ ھـ‬1423/1422 ‫إﺟﺎﺑﺎت ﻧﻤﻮذﺟﯿﺔ ﻷﺳﺌﻠﺔ اﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻨﮭﺎﺋﻲ ﻟﻠﻔﺼﻞ اﻷول‬
( 1 ‫ ﺑﺤﺚ ) طﺮق اﻟﻤﺤﻜﺎة‬241 ‫ﻟﻤﺎدة‬
:‫إﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﺆال اﻷول‬

‫ ﻧﺠﺪ‬Minitab ‫)أ( ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام‬
MTB > Tally C1;
SUBC> Counts;
SUBC> CumCounts;
SUBC> Percents;
SUBC> CumPercents.
Summary Statistics for Discrete Variables
SerTime Count CumCnt Percent CumPct

5 8 8 16.00 16.00
6 11 19 22.00 38.00
7 10 29 20.00 58.00
8 11 40 22.00 80.00
9 10 50 20.00 100.00
N= 50
Input ‫ﻟﺘﻄﺒﯿﻖ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ إﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ إﻣﺎ ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪم إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻛﺎي أو ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻣﺤﻠﻞ اﻟﻤﺪﺧﻼت‬
Analyzer
Distribution: Discrete
Expression: Disc(5, 9)
Chi Square Test

Data Summary

Min Data Value =5
Max Data Value =9
Sample Mean = 7.08
Histogram Summary
Histogram Range = 4.5 to 9.5
618
‫‪Number of Intervals = 5‬‬
‫ﻧﺠﺪ أن اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺘﻘﻄﻊ ‪ Discrete‬ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 5‬و ‪ 9‬ﯾﻨﻄﺒﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت‬
‫)ب( ﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ ‪ 20‬زﻣﻦ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪم أﻣﺮ اﻟﻤﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ ﺑﺈﺣﻼل ﻓﻲ ‪ Minitab‬ﻛﺎﻻﺗﻲ‪:‬‬
‫;‪MTB > Sample 20 C1 c4‬‬
‫>‪SUBC‬‬ ‫‪Replace.‬‬
‫‪MTB > print c4‬‬
‫‪C4‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬
‫‪9‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫‪5‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬

‫ﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ ﻗﯿﻢ ﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﯾﺘﺒﻊ داﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ‬
‫‪x‬‬
‫= ) ‪F (x‬‬ ‫‪, x = 1, 2,..., 6‬‬
‫‪6‬‬
‫ﻧﻌﻤﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪x‬‬
‫‪R = F (x ) = , x = 1, 2,..., 6‬‬
‫‪6‬‬
‫)‪\ x = 6R , R Î (0,1‬‬
‫وھﺬا ﯾﻌﻄﻰ ﻗﯿﻢ ﻏﯿﺮ ﺻﺤﯿﺤﺔ وﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮل ﻋﻠﻰ ارﻗﺎم ﺻﺤﯿﺤﺔ ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬
‫‪x = smallest int eger ³ x‬‬
‫‪ëû‬‬
‫ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪ Minitab‬ﻧﺠﺪ‬
‫> ‪MTB‬‬ ‫;‪Random 20 c1‬‬
‫>‪SUBC‬‬ ‫‪Uniform 0.0 1.0.‬‬
‫> ‪MTB‬‬ ‫‪let c2=6*c1‬‬
‫> ‪MTB‬‬ ‫‪let c3=c2+0.5‬‬
‫> ‪MTB‬‬ ‫‪round c3 c4‬‬
‫> ‪MTB‬‬ ‫‪print c4‬‬
‫‪C4‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫> ‪MTB‬‬
‫‪- 0.5‬‬
‫‪e‬‬ ‫‪= 0.606531‬‬
‫‪619‬‬
1)n = 0, P = 1
2)R 1 = 0.771828 Þ P ® PR 1 = 0.771828
3)0.771828< 0.606531 Þ NO ® reject n = 0 Þ n = 1
2)R 2 = 0.428251 Þ P ® PR 2 = 0.3305361
3)0.3305361 < 0.606531 Þ YES ® N = 1
1)n = 0, P = 1
2)R 1 = 0.995495 Þ P ® PR 1 = 0.995495
3)0.995495< 0.606531 Þ NO ® reject n = 0 Þ n = 1
2)R 2 = 0.067969 Þ P ® PR 2 = 0.067663
3)0.067663 < 0.606531 Þ YES ® N = 1
1)n = 0, P = 1
2)R 1 = 0.815945 Þ P ® PR 1 = 0.815945
3)0.815945< 0.606531 Þ NO ® reject n = 0 Þ n = 1
2)R 2 = 0.833423 Þ P ® PR 2 = 0.680027
3)0.680027 < 0.606531 Þ NO ® reject n = 1 Þ n = 2
2)R 3 = 0.344675 Þ P ® PR 3 = 0.234388
3)0.234388 < 0.606531 Þ YES ® N = 2
1)n = 0, P = 1
2)R 1 = 0.565971 Þ P ® PR 1 = 0.565971
3)0.565971< 0.606531 Þ NO ® reject n = 0 Þ n = 1
2)R 2 = 0.560698 Þ P ® PR 2 = 0.317339
3)0.317339 < 0.606531 Þ YES ® N = 1
1)n = 0, P = 1
2)R 1 = 0.718902 Þ P ® PR 1 = 0.718902
3)0.718902< 0.606531 Þ NO ® reject n = 0 Þ n = 1
2)R 2 = 0.631130 Þ PR 2 = 0.453721
3)0.453721< 0.606531 Þ YES ® N = 1
1,1,2,1,1 :‫اﻟﻘﯿﻢ ھﻲ‬
:‫إﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﺆال اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ‬

:‫ﻹﺟﺮاء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة اﻟﯿﺪوﯾﺔ ﻧﻜﻮن ﺟﺪاول ﻟﻠﻤﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫ﺟﺪول ﻣﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﻟﻜﻞ ﯾﻮم‬
Number of Customers/Day Probability Cumulative Probability
8 0.35 0.35
10 0.30 0.65
620
‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.90‬‬
‫‪14‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬
‫ﺟﺪول ﻣﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ ﻋﺪد اﻷرﻏﻔﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ زﺑﻮن‬

‫‪Number of Loafs/Customer‬‬ ‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪Cumulative Probability‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬
‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.9‬‬
‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪1.0‬‬
‫ﻧﻮﺟﺪ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﺑﺴﺤﺐ رﻗﻢ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ‪ 0.125002‬وﺑﻤﺎ أن ھﺬا اﻟﺮﻗﻢ ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 0‬و ‪ 0.35‬إذا ﻋﺪد‬
‫اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﻟﻠﯿﻮم اﻷول = ‪8‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.747727‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.165930‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.807279‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.691822‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0.332073‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪0.865662‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪0.954414‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪0.605033‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪Total‬‬ ‫‪76‬‬
‫إذا ﻋﺪد اﻷرﻏﻔﺔ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﻟﻠﯿﻮم اﻷول = ‪ 76‬رﻏﯿﻔﺎ‬

‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.795704‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.191331‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.326339‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.760580‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0.232169‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪0.766908‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪0.897992‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪0.498371‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪0.593898‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪0.917927‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬
‫‪Total‬‬ ‫‪92‬‬
‫إذا ﻋﺪد اﻷرﻏﻔﺔ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﻟﻠﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ = ‪ 92‬رﻏﯿﻔﺎ‬

‫‪621‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.500345‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.377338‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.497917‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.560237‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0.742156‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪0.066540‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪0.953874‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪0.048342‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪0.133688‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪0.145730‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪11‬‬ ‫‪0.313932‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪0.656628‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪13‬‬ ‫‪0.146369‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪14‬‬ ‫‪0.688054‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪Total‬‬ ‫‪96‬‬
‫إذا ﻋﺪد اﻷرﻏﻔﺔ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﻟﻠﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ = ‪ 96‬رﻏﯿﻔﺎ‬

‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.102021‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.352606‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.739246‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.278503‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0.495604‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪0.471064‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪0.214966‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪0.784797‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪0.922574‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬
‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪0.011573‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪11‬‬ ‫‪0.530562‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪0.811989‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫‪Total‬‬ ‫‪100‬‬
‫إذا ﻋﺪد اﻷرﻏﻔﺔ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﻟﻠﯿﻮم اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ = ‪ 100‬رﻏﯿﻔﺎ‬

‫‪622‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.113377‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.682001‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.860924‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.616596‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0.670505‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪0.996726‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪0.203282‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪0.616869‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪0.337997‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪0.273178‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬
‫‪11‬‬ ‫‪0.832140‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬
‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪0.575714‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬
‫‪Total‬‬ ‫‪96‬‬
‫إذا ﻋﺪد اﻷرﻏﻔﺔ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﻟﻠﯿﻮم اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ = ‪ 96‬رﻏﯿﻔﺎ‬

‫إذا ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﺪد اﻷرﻏﻔﺔ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ ھﻮ‬
‫‪76 + 92 + 96 + 100 + 96 460‬‬
‫= ‪Average Number of Loafs‬‬ ‫=‬ ‫‪= 92‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫وﻟﺬﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ اﻷﻓﻀﻞ ﻟﻠﺨﺒﺎز إﻋﺪاد ‪ 92‬رﻏﯿﻔﺎ ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪623‬‬
‫ﺑﺴﻢ ﷲ اﻟﺮﺣﻤﻦ اﻟﺮﺣﻴﻢ‬
‫ﻣﺎدة ‪ 241‬ﺑﺤﺚ )طﺮق اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪( 1‬‬

‫‪Daily Demand‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬

‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪0.33‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬ ‫‪0.12‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬
‫)‪Lead Time (Days‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬

‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬
‫زﻣﻦ اﻟﺤﯿﺎة ‪ Lifetime‬ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻨﻮات ﻟﻘﻤﺮ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﻲ وﺿﻊ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺪار ﺣﻮل اﻷرض ﯾﺘﺒﻊ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪0.4e−0.4 x ,‬‬ ‫‪x≥0‬‬
‫‪f ( x) = ‬‬
‫ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪ MINITAB‬أو ‪ EXCEL‬وﻟﺪ ‪ 1000‬أزﻣﻨﺔ ﺣﯿﺎة وأﺟﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻣﺎھﻮ إﺣﺘﻤﺎل أن اﻟﻘﻤﺮ اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ ﻻﯾﺰال ﯾﻌﻤﻞ ﺑﻌﺪ ‪ 5‬ﺳﻨﻮات؟‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻣﺎھﻮ إﺣﺘﻤﺎل أن اﻟﻘﻤﺮ اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ ﯾﻌﻤﻞ ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 3‬و ‪ 6‬ﺳﻨﻮات ﺑﻌﺪ إطﻼﻗﮫ؟‬
‫‪ -3‬ﺣﻘﻖ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺠﻚ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠﯿﺎ )اﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ھﺬه اﻟﻔﻘﺮة إﺧﺘﯿﺎرﯾﺎ(‪.‬‬
‫‪624‬‬
‫اﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﯾﻤﺜﻞ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪات ﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ‪xi‬‬
‫‪xi‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬
‫‪Observed‬‬ ‫‪118‬‬ ‫‪274‬‬ ‫‪298‬‬ ‫‪169‬‬ ‫‪105‬‬ ‫‪25‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫أﺧﺘﺒﺮ اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ اﻟﻘﺎﺋﻠﺔ ان ‪ xi‬ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻟﮫ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﺑﻮاﺳﻮن ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 2‬ﺧﺬ ‪. α = 0.05‬‬
‫‪625‬‬
‫إﺟﺎﺑﺎت ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﻟﻺﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻨﮭﺎﺋﻲ ﻟﻠﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ‪ 1423/1422‬ھـ‬

‫ﻟﻠﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة اﻟﯿﺪوﯾﺔ ﻧﻜﻮن اﻟﺠﺪاول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺟﺪول ﻣﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪Demand‬‬ ‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪Cumulative Probability‬‬ ‫‪Random Number‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0.33‬‬ ‫‪0.33‬‬ ‫‪0.00 – 0.33‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.58‬‬ ‫‪0.34 – 0.58‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬ ‫‪0.78‬‬ ‫‪0.59 – 0.78‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.12‬‬ ‫‪0.90‬‬ ‫‪0.79 – 0.90‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬ ‫‪0.91 – 1.00‬‬
‫ﺟﺪول ﻣﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻘﺪم‪:‬‬

‫‪Lead Time‬‬ ‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪Cumulative Probability‬‬ ‫‪Random Number‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.00 – 0.30‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.8‬‬ ‫‪0.31 – 0.80‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪1.0‬‬ ‫‪0.81 – 1.00‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪:‬‬
‫اﻻﺳﺒﻮع اﻷول‪:‬‬
‫‪626‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻷﺳﺒﻮع اﻷول ﺗﺒﻘﻰ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ‪ 8‬وﺣﺪات‬
‫ﻧﺘﯿﺠﺔ اﻟﻔﺤﺺ‪ :‬ﻻﺗﻀﻊ طﻠﺒﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫اﻷﺳﺒﻮع اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻷﺳﺒﻮع اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﻢ ﯾﺘﺒﻘﻰ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ﺷﯿﺊ وﺣﺪث ﻧﻘﺺ ‪ 4‬وﺣﺪات‬
‫اﻷﺳﺒﻮع اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ‪:‬‬
‫‪627‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻷﺳﺒﻮع اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ﻟﻢ ﯾﺘﺒﻘﻰ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ﺷﯿﺊ وﻟﻢ ﯾﺤﺪث ﻧﻘﺺ‪.‬‬
‫اﻷﺳﺒﻮع اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ‪:‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻷﺳﺒﻮع اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ ﻟﻢ ﯾﺘﺒﻘﻰ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ﺷﯿﺊ وﺣﺪث ﻧﻘﺺ ‪ 7‬وﺣﺪات‪.‬‬
‫اﻷﺳﺒﻮع اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ‪:‬‬
‫‪628‬‬
‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‪) :‬وﺻﻠﺖ اﻟﻄﻠﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﺠﺪﯾﺪة(‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻷﺳﺒﻮع اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ ﺗﺒﻘﻰ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ‪ 3‬وﺣﺪات وﺣﺪث ﻧﻘﺺ ‪ 2‬وﺣﺪة ﻓﻲ ﺑﺪاﯾﺔ اﻷﺳﺒﻮع‪.‬‬
‫اﻷﺳﺒﻮع اﻟﺴﺎدس‪:‬‬
‫‪629‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻷﺳﺒﻮع اﻟﺴﺎدس ﺗﺒﻘﻰ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ‪ 2‬وﺣﺪات وﻟﻢ ﯾﺤﺪث ﻧﻘﺺ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻮﻋﺪ وﺻﻮل اﻟﻄﻠﺒﯿﺔ‪ :‬اﻟﺮﻗﻢ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ‪ 0.892844‬زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻘﺪم ‪ 3‬اﯾﺎم‪.‬‬
‫)ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة(‬
‫وﻧﻀﻊ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻓﻲ ﺟﺪول ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫زﻣﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﺮﻗﻢ‬ ‫اﻟﻨﻘﺺ‬ ‫ﻧﺘﯿﺠﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﺗﺒﻘﻰ ﻣﻦ‬ ‫اﻟﻄﻠﺐ‬ ‫اﻟﺮﻗﻢ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺨﺰون‬ ‫اﻷﯾﺎم‬
‫اﻟﺘﻘﺪم‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻔﺤﺺ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺨﺰون‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮد‬
‫ﻟﻮﺻﻮل‬ ‫ﻟﻠﻄﻠﺐ‬
‫اﻷﺳﺒﻮع )‪(1‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.419225‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻷول‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.672281‬‬ ‫‪11‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.556692‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0.179291‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0.066128‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0.136442‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺴﺎدس‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0.219630‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻊ‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫ﻻﺗﻀﻊ طﻠﺒﯿﺔ‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻷﺳﺒﻮع‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.345517‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻷول‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.520493‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.616346‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.639711‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0.330888‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.949622‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺴﺎدس‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.640219‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻊ‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.753165‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻷول‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0.132686‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.592781‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.641142‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.711578‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺴﺎدس‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.976901‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻊ‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.940874‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻷول‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.830444‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.823155‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.996509‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.382630‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺴﺎدس‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0.018751‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻊ‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.599484‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻷول‬
‫وﺻﻮل‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.583797‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.835045‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ‬
‫‪630‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.362963‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.699827‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0.089972‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺴﺎدس‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0.155004‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻊ‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.373323‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻷول‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.379252‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.584059‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0.138283‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.615948‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺴﺎدس‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.928577‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻊ‬
‫اﻟﻨﻘﺺ ) اﻟﻄﻠﺐ اﻟﻀﺎﺋﻊ(‬ ‫ﻋﺪد اﻷﯾﺎم اﻟﺘﻲ ﺣﺪث ﻓﯿﮭﺎ ﻧﻘﺺ‬ ‫اﻟﻄﻠﺐ‬ ‫اﻷﺳﺒﻮع‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪17‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪11‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬
‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪65‬‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮع‬
‫ھﻨﺎك ‪ 6‬أﯾﺎم ﺣﺪث ﻓﯿﮭﺎ ﻧﻘﺺ اي ‪ 14.3%‬ﻣﻦ اﻷﯾﺎم‪.‬‬

‫ﻋﺪد اﻟﻮﺣﺪات اﻟﺘﻲ طﻠﺒﺖ وﻟﻢ ﺗﺤﻘﻖ ھﻲ ‪ 15‬وﺣﺪة أي ‪ 23.07%‬ﻧﺴﺒﺔ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ اﻟﻀﺎﺋﻊ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻮﺣﺪات اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮﺑﺔ ﻟﻠﺸﺮاء اﺳﺒﻮﻋﯿﺎ ‪ 10.83‬وﺣﺪة وھﻲ اﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻮﺣﺪات اﻟﺘﻲ‬
‫ﯾﺘﻢ طﻠﺒﮭﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪631‬‬
‫‪1‬‬
‫=‪µ‬‬ ‫ﻣﻦ داﻟﺔ اﻟﻜﺜﺎﻓﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻧﺠﺪ ‪ λ = 0.4‬أي أن اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪= 2.5‬‬
‫‪0.4‬‬
‫ﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ ‪ 1000‬ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪم اوﻻ ‪ MINITAB‬واﻷواﻣﺮ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫;‪MTB > RANDOM 1000 C1‬‬
‫‪SUBC> EXPO 2.5.‬‬
‫> ‪MTB‬‬
‫اﻧﺴﺦ اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﻤﻮﻟﺪة واﻟﺼﻘﮭﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺻﻔﺤﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪ EXCEL‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﻌﻤﻮد ‪ A‬ﺛﻢ اوﺟﺪ اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﺼﻐﺮى‬
‫واﻟﻜﺒﺮى ﻟﻠﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت وﻛﻮن اﻟﻔﺌﺎت ﺑﺤﯿﺚ ﺗﻨﻄﺒﻖ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺎﺗﮭﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻘﯿﻢ اﻟﻤﺮاد ﺣﺴﺎﺑﮭﺎ وﻛﻮن اﻟﺠﺪول‬
‫‪Class Interval‬‬ ‫‪Relative Frequency‬‬ ‫‪Cumulative Relative Frequency‬‬
‫‪xi ≤ 0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫)‪0 = P ( X ≤ 0‬‬
‫‪0 < xi ≤ 1‬‬ ‫‪0.331‬‬ ‫)‪0.331 = P ( X ≤ 1‬‬
‫‪1 < xi ≤ 2‬‬ ‫‪0.224‬‬ ‫) ‪0.555 = P ( X ≤ 2‬‬
‫‪2 < xi ≤ 3‬‬ ‫‪0.144‬‬ ‫)‪0.699 = P ( X ≤ 3‬‬
‫‪3 < xi ≤ 4‬‬ ‫‪0.101‬‬ ‫) ‪0.800 = P ( X ≤ 4‬‬
‫‪4 < xi ≤ 5‬‬ ‫‪0.056‬‬ ‫) ‪0.856 = P ( X ≤ 5‬‬
‫‪5 < xi ≤ 6‬‬ ‫‪0.049‬‬ ‫) ‪0.905 = P ( X ≤ 6‬‬
‫‪6 < xi ≤ 7‬‬ ‫‪0.035‬‬ ‫) ‪0.940 = P ( X ≤ 7‬‬
‫‪7 < xi ≤ 8‬‬ ‫‪0.018‬‬ ‫) ‪0.958 = P ( X ≤ 8‬‬
‫‪8 < xi ≤ 9‬‬ ‫‪0.012‬‬ ‫) ‪0.970 = P ( X ≤ 9‬‬
‫‪9 < xi ≤ 10‬‬ ‫‪0.006‬‬ ‫) ‪0.976 = P ( X ≤ 10‬‬
‫‪10 < xi ≤ 11‬‬ ‫‪0.007‬‬ ‫)‪0.983 = P ( X ≤ 11‬‬
‫‪11 < xi ≤ 12‬‬ ‫‪0.006‬‬ ‫) ‪0.989 = P ( X ≤ 12‬‬
‫‪12 < xi ≤ 13‬‬ ‫‪0.006‬‬ ‫)‪0.995 = P ( X ≤ 13‬‬
‫‪13 < xi ≤ 14‬‬ ‫‪0.001‬‬ ‫) ‪0.996 = P ( X ≤ 14‬‬
‫‪14 < xi ≤ 15‬‬ ‫‪0.003‬‬ ‫) ‪0.999 = P ( X ≤ 15‬‬
‫‪15 < xi ≤ 16‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫) ‪0.999 = P ( X ≤ 16‬‬
‫‪16 < xi ≤ 17‬‬ ‫‪0.001‬‬ ‫) ‪1.000 = P ( X ≤ 17‬‬
‫‪17 < xi‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﺠﺪول‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬إﺣﺘﻤﺎل ان اﻟﻘﻤﺮ اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ ﻻﯾﺰال ﯾﻌﻤﻞ ﺑﻌﺪ ‪ 5‬ﺳﻨﻮات‬
‫‪P ( X ≥ 5 ) = 1 − P ( X < 5 ) = 1 − 0.856=0.144‬‬
‫وذﻟﻚ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻤﻮد اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ﺑﺎﻟﺠﺪول‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬إﺣﺘﻤﺎل ان اﻟﻘﻤﺮ اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ ﯾﻌﻤﻞ ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 3‬و ‪ 6‬ﺳﻨﻮات‬
‫‪P ( 3 ≤ X ≤ 6 ) = P ( X ≤ 6 ) − P ( X ≤ 3) = 0.905 - 0.699 = 0.206‬‬
‫اﯾﻀﺎ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻌﻤﻮد اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺪول‪.‬‬
‫‪-3‬‬
‫‪632‬‬
‫‪5‬‬
‫)‪1‬‬ ‫‪P ( X ≤ 5 ) = ∫ 0.4e−0.4 x = 1 − e −0.4(5) = 0.864664717‬‬
‫‪0‬‬
‫‪1-P ( X ≤ 5 ) = 0.1353353‬‬
‫‪6‬‬
‫‪2) P ( 3 ≤ X ≤ 6 ) = ∫ 0.4e −0.4 x = e −0.4(3) − e −0.4( 6) = 0.210476259‬‬
‫‪3‬‬
‫ﻧﻼﺣﻆ ان ھﻨﺎك ﺗﻘﺎرب ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ) ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮل ﻋﻠﻰ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺞ أدق ﺗﺆﺧﺬ اﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻋﯿﻨﺔ(‬
‫‪633‬‬
‫ﻧﺤﺴﺐ اﻟﺘﻜﺮارات اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪−2‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪e 2‬‬
‫‪E1 = 1000 P ( X = 0 ) = 100‬‬ ‫‪= 135.335283‬‬
‫!‪0‬‬
‫‪e −2 21‬‬
‫‪E2 = 1000 P ( X‬‬ ‫‪= 1) = 100‬‬ ‫‪= 270.6705665‬‬
‫!‪1‬‬
‫‪e −2 2 2‬‬
‫‪E3 = 1000 P ( X‬‬ ‫‪= 2 ) = 100‬‬ ‫‪= 270.6705665‬‬
‫!‪2‬‬
‫‪e −2 23‬‬
‫‪E4 = 1000 P ( X‬‬ ‫‪= 3) = 100‬‬ ‫‪= 180.4470443‬‬
‫!‪3‬‬
‫‪e −2 2 4‬‬
‫‪E5 = 1000 P ( X‬‬ ‫‪= 4 ) = 100‬‬ ‫‪= 90.22352216‬‬
‫!‪4‬‬
‫‪e −2 25‬‬
‫‪E6 = 1000 P ( X‬‬ ‫‪= 5 ) = 100‬‬ ‫‪= 36.08940886‬‬
‫!‪5‬‬
‫‪e −2 26‬‬
‫‪E7 = 1000 P ( X‬‬ ‫‪= 6 ) = 100‬‬ ‫‪= 12.02980295‬‬
‫!‪6‬‬
‫‪e −2 27‬‬
‫‪E8 = 1000 P ( X‬‬ ‫‪= 7 ) = 100‬‬ ‫‪= 3.43708656‬‬
‫!‪7‬‬
‫‪e −2 2 8‬‬
‫‪E9 = 1000 P ( X‬‬ ‫‪= 8 ) = 100‬‬ ‫‪= 0.85927164‬‬
‫!‪8‬‬
‫وﻧﻜﻮن ﺟﺪول‪:‬‬
‫‪i‬‬ ‫‪xi‬‬ ‫‪Observed Oi‬‬ ‫‪Expected Ei‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪118‬‬ ‫‪135.3353‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪274‬‬ ‫‪270.6706‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪298‬‬ ‫‪270.6706‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪169‬‬ ‫‪180.447‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪105‬‬ ‫‪90.22352‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪25‬‬ ‫‪36.08941‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪12.0298‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪3.437087‬‬
‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.859272‬‬
‫‪Total‬‬ ‫‪1000‬‬ ‫‪999.7626‬‬
‫ﻧﻼﺣﻆ أن اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺨﻠﯿﺘﯿﻦ اﻷﺧﯿﺮة أﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪ 5‬ﻓﺘﺪﻣﺞ اﻟﺨﻠﯿﺘﯿﻦ ﻣﻊ اﻟﺨﻠﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻟﮭﻤﺎ‬
‫‪xi‬‬ ‫‪Observed Oi‬‬ ‫‪Expected Ei‬‬ ‫) ‪( Oi − Ei‬‬

‫‪2‬‬
‫‪Ei‬‬
‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪118‬‬ ‫‪135.3353‬‬ ‫‪2.220504‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪274‬‬ ‫‪270.6706‬‬ ‫‪0.040953‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪298‬‬ ‫‪270.6706‬‬ ‫‪2.759428‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪169‬‬ ‫‪180.447‬‬ ‫‪0.726162‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪105‬‬ ‫‪90.22352‬‬ ‫‪2.420038‬‬
‫‪634‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪25‬‬ ‫‪36.08941‬‬ ‫‪3.40751‬‬
‫‪≥6‬‬ ‫‪11‬‬ ‫‪16.32616‬‬ ‫‪1.737578‬‬
‫‪Total‬‬ ‫‪1000‬‬ ‫‪999.7626‬‬ ‫‪13.31217‬‬
‫ﻛﺎي ﺗﺮﺑﯿﻊ اﻟﻤﺤﺴﻮﺑﺔ ‪χ 62 = 13.31217‬‬

‫‪2‬‬
‫‪χ 0.05,6‬‬ ‫وﻛﺎي ﺗﺮﺑﯿﻊ اﻟﺠﺪوﻟﯿﺔ ‪= 12.5916‬‬
‫ﺑﻤﺎ ان اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺴﻮﺑﺔ اﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﺠﺪوﻟﯿﺔ ﻓﺈﻧﻨﺎ ﻧﺮﻓﺾ اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ اﻟﻘﺎﺋﻠﺔ ان ‪ xi‬ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ‬
‫ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻟﮫ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﺑﻮاﺳﻮن ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 2‬ﻋﻨﺪ ‪. α = 0.05‬‬
‫‪635‬‬
‫ﻣﺎدة ‪ 342‬ﺑﺤﺚ ) طﺮق اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪( 2‬‬
‫إﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻷول ‪ 1421‬ھـ‪ 1422/‬ھـ‬

‫ا( ﻋﺮف طﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة اﻷﺣﺪاث اﻟﻤﻨﻔﺼﻠﺔ ‪ Discrete-event simulation method‬و أذﻛﺮ‬
‫أﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ‬
‫ب( ﻗﺎرن ﺑﯿﻦ طﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﺟﺪوﻟﺔ اﻷﺣﺪاث ‪ Event schedualing‬وطﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﺗﻔﺎﻋﻞ اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺎت ‪Process‬‬
‫‪ interaction‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‬
‫ج( ﻗﺎرن ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﯿﻜﺎﻧﯿﻜﯿﺔ ﺗﻘﺪم زﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة اﻟﻤﻌﺘﻤﺪة ﻋﻠﻰ اﻷﺣﺪاث ‪Next event time‬‬
‫‪ advance‬و اﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ ‪Fixed increment time advance‬‬
‫ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ ﯾﺘﻜﻮن ﻣﻦ ﺧﺎدﻣﯿﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﻮاﻟﻲ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﮭﻢ ﻟﮫ ﻧﻈﺎم طﺎﺑﻮر ‪ ، FIFO‬أي زﺑﻮن ﯾﻜﻤﻞ‬
‫اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻣﻊ اﻟﺨﺎدم اﻷول ﯾﺘﺠﮫ إﻟﻰ اﻟﺨﺎدم اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ وﻣﻦ ﺑﻌﺪ إﻛﻤﺎﻟﮫ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻣﻊ اﻟﺨﺎدم اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﯾﻐﺎدر‬
‫اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪ .‬ﻟﻨﻔﺘﺮض أن زﻣﻦ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل ﻟﻠﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﻟﻠﺨﺎدم اﻷول ﻟﮫ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﺳﻲ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‬
‫واﺣﺪة‪ .‬زﻣﻦ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ اﻟﺨﺎدم اﻷول ﻟﮭﺎ أﯾﻀﺎ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﺳﻲ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 0,7‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ وﻋﻨﺪ اﻟﺨﺎدم‬
‫اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﮭﺎ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﺳﻲ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 0،9‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‪ .‬أوﺟﺪ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺎ ‪: GPSS‬‬
‫أ( أﺟﺮي ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم ﻟﻌﺪد ‪ 100‬زﺑﻮن وﻗﺪر ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻟﻠﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﺪد‬
‫اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ طﺎﺑﻮر اﻟﺨﺎدﻣﯿﻦ وﻗﺪر ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺨﺎدﻣﯿﻦ‪.‬‬
‫ب( ﻟﻨﻔﺘﺮض أﻧﮫ ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﻓﺘﺮة زﻣﻨﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻮﺟﮫ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺨﺎدم اﻷول إﻟﻰ اﻟﺨﺎدم اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ واﻟﺘﻲ ﻟﮭﺎ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻤﺎﺛﻞ ﺑﯿﻦ دﻗﯿﻘﺔ وﺛﻼث دﻗﺎﺋﻖ‪ .‬أﻋﺪ إﺟﺮاء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺗﺤﺖ ھﺬه اﻟﻈﺮوف وأوﺟﺪ اﻟﺘﻘﺪﯾﺮات‬
‫اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ج( ﻟﻨﻔﺘﺮض أن ‪ %20‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﻻﯾﺤﺘﺎج إﻟﻰ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ اﻟﺨﺎدم اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﺑﻞ ﯾﻐﺎدر اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﺑﻌﺪ إﻛﻤﺎل‬
‫اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻣﻊ اﻟﺨﺎدم اﻻول‪ .‬أﺟﺮ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺗﺤﺖ ھﺬه اﻟﻈﺮوف وأوﺟﺪ اﻟﺘﻘﺪﯾﺮات اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪636‬‬

‫ﻟﻤﺎدة ‪ 342‬ﺑﺤﺚ ) اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪( 2‬‬
‫أﺟﺐ ﻋﻠﻲ واﺣﺪ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻣﻦ اﻷﺳﺌﻠﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺎ ‪:GPSS WORLD‬‬
‫)أ( ﺗﺼﻨﻊ ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﻋﻦ طﺮﯾﻖ ﻣﺘﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺎت‪ ،‬ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﮭﺎ ﺗﺘﺒﻊ ﺑﺪﻗﯿﻘﺘﯿﻦ ﻟﻠﻔﺤﺺ‪ .‬اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺔ اﻷوﻟﻰ‬

‫‪Frequency‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪0.13‬‬ ‫‪0.16‬‬ ‫‪0.22‬‬ ‫‪0.29‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬
‫)‪Process time (mins‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪14‬‬ ‫‪21‬‬ ‫‪32‬‬ ‫‪38‬‬ ‫‪45‬‬
‫إﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﯿﺎري ‪ 4‬دﻗﺎﺋﻖ‪ .‬ﺣﺎﻛﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺎت اﻟﺘﺼﻨﯿﻊ ﻟـ ‪ 100‬ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﻣﻜﺘﻤﻠﺔ‪ .‬ﻋﯿﻦ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ اﻵزم ﻟﺬﻟﻚ‬
‫وﻋﺪد اﻟﻘﻄﻊ اﻟﻤﺮﻓﻮﺿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫أو‬
‫)ب( ﻣﺨﺰون ﻣﻨﺘﺞ ﻧﮭﺎﺋﻲ ﯾﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﺑﮫ ﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ ﻣﺮاﺟﻌﺔ دورﯾﺔ اﺳﺒﻮﻋﯿﺎ‪ .‬اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻹﺑﺘﺪاﺋﻲ ﯾﺘﻜﻮن‬
‫ﻣﻦ ‪ 1000‬وﺣﺪة‪ .‬اﻟﻄﻠﺐ اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ ﯾﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 40‬و ‪ 63‬وﺣﺪة وﺑﺈﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﻣﺘﺴﺎوي‪ .‬اﻟﻤﺨﺰون‬
‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﮭﺪف ھﻮ ‪ 1000‬وﺣﺪة‪ ،‬اي ان ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻞ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ﯾﺘﻢ ﺑﻄﻠﺐ اﻟﻔﺮق ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮد و‬
‫‪1000‬وﺣﺪة‪ .‬ﻓﺈذا ﻛﺎن اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮد ھﻮ ‪ 800‬وﺣﺪة او اﻛﺜﺮ ﻓﻠﻦ ﯾﻌﺪل اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ﻟﺬﻟﻚ‬
‫اﻻﺳﺒﻮع‪ .‬اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﺑﻨﻈﺎم ﺧﻤﺴﺔ اﯾﺎم ﻟﻺﺳﺒﻮع‪ .‬زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻘﺪم ‪ lead time‬ﻟﺘﻮﺻﯿﻞ اﻟﻄﻠﺒﯿﺔ ھﻮ‬
‫اﺳﺒﻮع واﺣﺪ‪ .‬ﺣﺎﻛﻲ ﻧﻈﺎم اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ﻟﻤﺪة ‪ 200‬ﯾﻮم وﺗﺤﻖ ﻓﯿﻤﺎ إذا ﻛﺎن ھﻨﺎك اي ﻧﻘﺺ ﻟﻠﻤﺨﺰون‬
‫‪.stockouts‬‬
‫‪637‬‬
(‫ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺗﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻧﺘﯿﺠﺔ اﻷﻋﺪاد اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ‬:‫إﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﺆال )أ( )ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ‬

*****************************************************************
* Quality Control Program *
* Time units are in minutes *
*****************************************************************
RMULT 93211
* Definitions
Transit TABLE M1,100,100,20 ;Transit Time
0,0/.05,10/.18,14/.34,21/.56,32/.85,38/1.0,45
*****************************************************************
RELEASE Machine1
*****************************************************************
RELEASE Machine2
*****************************************************************
RELEASE Machine3
TERMINATE 1
*****************************************************************
TERMINATE
TERMINATE
TERMINATE
(‫ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺗﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻧﺘﯿﺠﺔ اﻷﻋﺪاد اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ‬:‫إﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﺆال )ب( )ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ‬
*********************************************************************
*
*
*********************************************************************
638
RMULT 39941
*********************************************************************
*********************************************************************
demand
*********************************************************************
639

‫اﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎراﻟﻨﮭﺎﺋﻲ ﻟﻠﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ‪ 1422/1421‬ھـ‬

‫اﻟﺰﻣﻦ‪ 3 :‬ﺳﺎﻋﺎت‬
‫أﺟﺐ ﻋﻠﻲ اﻟﺴﺆال اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫ﯾﺸﺘﺮي ﺑﺎﺋﻊ ﺟﺮاﺋﺪ ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ ﻋﺪد ﻣﻦ اﻟﺠﺮاﺋﺪ ﻟﺒﯿﻌﮭﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻤﻼﺋﮫ‪ ،‬ﯾﺸﺘﺮي اﻟﺠﺮﯾﺪة اﻟﻮاﺣﺪة ﺑﻤﺒﻠﻎ‬
‫‪ 1.50‬﷼ وﯾﺒﯿﻌﮭﺎ ﺑﻤﺒﻠﻎ ‪ 2‬﷼‪ .‬اﻟﺠﺮاﺋﺪ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺘﺒﻘﻲ ﻓﻲ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﯿﻮم ﺗﺒﺎع ﻟﻤﺼﻨﻊ ﻗﺮاطﯿﺲ ﺑﻤﺒﻠﻎ ‪20‬‬
‫ھﻠﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﺠﺮﯾﺪة اﻟﻮاﺣﺪة‪ .‬اﻟﺠﺮاﺋﺪ ﺗﺸﺘﺮي ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﺎﺷﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺰم ﺗﺘﻜﻮن ﻣﻦ ‪ 10‬ﺟﺮاﺋﺪ‪ ،‬وھﻜﺬا ﻓﺈن ﺑﺎﺋﻊ‬
‫اﻟﺠﺮاﺋﺪ ﯾﺸﺘﺮي إﻣﺎ ‪ 50‬او ‪ 60‬او ‪ 70‬او ‪ ...‬اﻟﺦ ﺟﺮﯾﺪة ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ‪ .‬ﻣﻦ ﺧﺒﺮة اﻟﺒﺎﺋﻊ ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ھﻨﺎك ﺛﻼﺛﺔ‬
‫أﻧﻮاع ﻣﻦ اﻷﯾﺎم ﻟﻸﺧﺒﺎر‪ ،‬ﯾﻮم "ﺟﯿﺪ" وﯾﻮم "ﻻﺑﺄس ﺑﮫ" وﯾﻮم "ﺳﯿﺊ" و ﺑﺈﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻت‬
‫‪ 0.35,0.45,0.25‬ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﻮاﻟﻲ )إﻗﺮأ ﻣﻦ اﻟﯿﺴﺎر ﻟﻠﯿﻤﯿﻦ(‪ .‬ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻲ اﻟﺠﺮاﺋﺪ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻧﻮع‬
‫اﻟﯿﻮم ﯾﻌﻄﻰ ﺑﺎﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪40‬‬ ‫‪0.03‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬ ‫‪0.44‬‬
‫‪50‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪0.18‬‬ ‫‪0.22‬‬
‫‪60‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪0.40‬‬ ‫‪0.16‬‬
‫‪70‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬ ‫‪0.12‬‬
‫‪80‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.08‬‬ ‫‪0.06‬‬
‫‪90‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪0.04‬‬ ‫‪0.00‬‬
‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪0.07‬‬ ‫‪0.00‬‬ ‫‪0.00‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ اﻟﻌﺪد اﻷﻣﺜﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺠﺮاﺋﺪ اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺸﺘﺮﯾﮭﺎ ﺑﺎﺋﻊ اﻟﺠﺮاﺋﺪ ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ ﺣﺘﻲ ﯾﺤﻘﻖ أﻋﻠﻰ رﺑﺢ‪.‬‬
‫)أ( ﺣﺎﻛﻲ ‪ 10‬أﯾﺎم ﯾﺪوﯾﺎ ﻹﯾﺠﺎد اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب‪.‬‬
‫)ب( ﻛﻮن ﻧﻤﻮذج ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪ GPSS WORLD‬وﺣﺎﻛﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻟﻤﺪة ‪ 100‬ﯾﻮم ﻹﯾﺠﺎد اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ‪ :‬ﺗﺤﺴﺐ اﻷرﺑﺎح ﻣﻦ اﻟﺼﯿﻐﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪P=R–C–L+S‬‬
‫ﺣﯿﺚ اﻟﺮﻣﻮز ﺗﻌﻨﻲ‪:‬‬
‫)اﻷرﺑﺎح( ‪P = Profit‬‬
‫)ﻣﺒﻠﻎ اﻟﻤﺒﯿﻌﺎت اﻟﻜﻠﻲ( ‪R = Revenue from sales‬‬
‫)ﺗﻜﻠﻔﺔ اﻟﺠﺮاﺋﺪ( ‪C = Cost of newspapers‬‬
‫)اﻷرﺑﺎح اﻟﻤﻔﻘﻮدة ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪم ﺗﺤﻘﯿﻖ طﻠﺐ( ‪L = Lost profit from excess demand‬‬
‫)اﻟﻤﺒﻠﻎ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺮﺟﻊ ﻣﻦ ﺑﯿﻊ اﻟﺠﺮاﺋﺪ اﻟﻤﺘﺒﻘﯿﺔ( ‪S = salvage from sale of scrap papers‬‬
‫‪640‬‬


‫أﺟﺐ ﻋﻠﻲ اﻷﺳﺌﻠﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﺴﺆال أﻷول‪:‬‬

‫‪40‬‬ ‫‪0.03‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬ ‫‪0.44‬‬
‫‪50‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪0.18‬‬ ‫‪0.22‬‬
‫‪60‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪0.40‬‬ ‫‪0.16‬‬
‫‪70‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬ ‫‪0.12‬‬
‫‪80‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.08‬‬ ‫‪0.06‬‬
‫‪90‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪0.04‬‬ ‫‪0.00‬‬
‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪0.07‬‬ ‫‪0.00‬‬ ‫‪0.00‬‬
‫ﺣﺎﻛﻲ ‪ 10‬أﯾﺎم ﯾﺪوﯾﺎ ﻹﯾﺠﺎد اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﻓﯿﻤﺎ إذا أﺷﺘﺮى اﻟﺒﺎﺋﻊ ‪ 80,70,60,50‬ﺟﺮﯾﺪة ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪P=R–C–L+S‬‬
‫‪641‬‬
‫ﯾﻘﻮم ﻗﺴﻢ اﻟﺘﺼﻨﯿﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺷﺮﻛﺔ إﻟﻜﺘﺮوﻧﺎت ﺑﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺳﺎﻋﺎت رﻗﻤﯿﺔ‪ .‬ﺗﻌﺒﺄ اﻟﺴﺎﻋﺎت ﻓﻲ ﻗﺴﻢ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ‬
‫‪Order Size‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪18‬‬ ‫‪24‬‬ ‫‪30‬‬ ‫‪36‬‬ ‫‪48‬‬

‫‪Frequency 0.10‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.30‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪0.12‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪0.03‬‬
‫ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪ GPSS‬ﺣﺎﻛﻲ ‪ 10‬أﯾﺎم ﻣﻦ ﻧﺸﺎط اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻟﻜﻲ ﺗﻌﻄﻲ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬

‫‪642‬‬
‫ﻗﺴﻢ اﻹﺣﺼﺎء و ﺑﺤﻮث اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺎت‬

‫ﻣﺎدة ‪ 342‬ﺑﺤﺚ ) اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪( 2‬‬
‫إﺟﺎﺑﺔ اﻟﺴﺆال اﻷول‪:‬‬
‫ﻧﻜﻮن ﺟﺪول )‪ (1‬ﻟﻨﻮع اﻟﯿﻮم اﻷﺧﺒﺎري‪:‬‬
‫‪News Day‬‬ ‫‪Prob.‬‬ ‫‪Cum. Prob‬‬ ‫‪Random Digit‬‬
‫‪Good‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪01-35‬‬
‫‪Fair‬‬ ‫‪0.45‬‬ ‫‪0.80‬‬ ‫‪36-80‬‬
‫‪Poor‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪81-00‬‬
‫ﻧﻜﻮن ﺟﺪول )‪ (2‬ﻟﻠﻄﻠﺐ ﻟﻠﯿﻮم اﻷﺧﺒﺎري اﻟﺠﯿﺪ‪:‬‬
‫‪Demand‬‬ ‫‪Prob.‬‬ ‫‪Cum. Prob.‬‬ ‫‪Random Dig.‬‬
‫‪40‬‬ ‫‪0.03‬‬ ‫‪0.03‬‬ ‫‪01-03‬‬
‫‪50‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪0.08‬‬ ‫‪04-08‬‬
‫‪60‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪0.23‬‬ ‫‪09-23‬‬
‫‪70‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬ ‫‪0.43‬‬ ‫‪24-43‬‬
‫‪80‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.78‬‬ ‫‪44-78‬‬
‫‪90‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪0.93‬‬ ‫‪79-93‬‬
‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪94-00‬‬
‫ﻧﻜﻮن ﺟﺪول )‪ (3‬ﻟﻠﻄﻠﺐ ﻟﻠﯿﻮم اﻷﺧﺒﺎري ﻻﺑﺄس ﺑﮫ‪:‬‬
‫‪40‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬ ‫‪01-10‬‬
‫‪643‬‬
‫‪50‬‬ ‫‪0.18‬‬ ‫‪0.28‬‬ ‫‪11-28‬‬
‫‪60‬‬ ‫‪0.40‬‬ ‫‪0.68‬‬ ‫‪29-68‬‬
‫‪70‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬ ‫‪0.88‬‬ ‫‪69-88‬‬
‫‪80‬‬ ‫‪0.08‬‬ ‫‪0.96‬‬ ‫‪89-96‬‬
‫‪90‬‬ ‫‪0.04‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪97-00‬‬
‫ﻧﻜﻮن ﺟﺪول )‪ (4‬ﻟﻠﻄﻠﺐ ﻟﻠﯿﻮم اﻷﺧﺒﺎري اﻟﺴﯿﺊ ‪:‬‬
‫‪40‬‬ ‫‪0.44‬‬ ‫‪0.44‬‬ ‫‪01-44‬‬
‫‪50‬‬ ‫‪0.22‬‬ ‫‪0.66‬‬ ‫‪45-66‬‬
‫‪60‬‬ ‫‪0.16‬‬ ‫‪0.82‬‬ ‫‪67-82‬‬
‫‪70‬‬ ‫‪0.12‬‬ ‫‪0.94‬‬ ‫‪83-94‬‬
‫‪80‬‬ ‫‪0.06‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪95-00‬‬
‫ﻧﺒﺪأ اﻟﻤﺤﻜﺎة ﻟﻠﯿﻮم اﻷول‪:‬‬

‫ﻋﺪد اﻟﺠﺮاﺋﺪ اﻟﻤﺸﺘﺮاة = ‪ 50‬ﺟﺮﯾﺪة ﺑﺴﻌﺮ ‪ 75‬﷼ ) ‪(C = 75 SR‬‬
‫ﻧﻮع اﻟﯿﻮم اﻷﺧﺒﺎري‪ :‬ﻧﺴﺤﺐ رﻗﻢ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺟﺪول ‪ 64 = A.1.‬ﻻﺑﺄس ﺑﮫ‬
‫اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻟﻠﯿﻮم اﻷول‪ :‬ﻧﺴﺤﺐ رﻗﻢ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ = ‪ 13‬وﻣﻦ ﺟﺪول )‪ (3‬اﻟﻄﻠﺐ = ‪50‬‬
‫‪P=R–C–L+S‬‬
‫‪= 2x50 – 1.5x 50 – 0 + 0 = 25 SR‬‬
‫ﻋﺪد اﻟﺠﺮاﺋﺪ اﻟﻤﺸﺘﺮاة = ‪ 50‬ﺟﺮﯾﺪة‬
‫ﻧﻮع اﻟﯿﻮم اﻷﺧﺒﺎري‪ :‬ﻧﺴﺤﺐ رﻗﻢ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺟﺪول ‪ 82 = A.1.‬ﺳﯿﺊ‬
‫اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻟﻠﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‪ :‬اﻟﺮﻗﻢ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ‪ 45‬وﻣﻦ ﺟﺪول )‪ (4‬اﻟﻄﻠﺐ = ‪50‬‬
‫‪P=R–C–L+S‬‬
‫‪= 2x50 – 1.5x 50 – 0 + 0 = 25 SR‬‬
‫وھﻜﺬا وﻧﻜﻮن ﺟﺪول ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪Day‬‬ ‫‪R.D.‬‬ ‫‪Newsday‬‬ ‫‪R.D.‬‬ ‫‪Demand‬‬ ‫‪R L‬‬ ‫‪S‬‬ ‫‪P‬‬

‫‪Newsday‬‬ ‫‪Demand‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪64‬‬ ‫‪Fair‬‬ ‫‪13‬‬ ‫‪50‬‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪25‬‬

‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪82‬‬ ‫‪Poor‬‬ ‫‪45‬‬ ‫‪50‬‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪25‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪26‬‬ ‫‪Good‬‬ ‫‪93‬‬ ‫‪90‬‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪35‬‬ ‫‪Good‬‬ ‫‪80‬‬ ‫‪90‬‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪644‬‬
5 17 Good 04 50 100 0 0 25
6 45 Fair 20 50 100 0 0 25
7 03 Good 88 90 100 20 0 5
8 72 Fair 03 40 80 0 2 7
9 83 Poor 78 60 100 5 0 20
10 69 Fair 03 40 80 0 2 7
‫ ﷼‬14.5 ‫ ﺟﺮﯾﺪة ﻓﻲ اﻟﯿﻮم ھﻮ‬50 ‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﺠﺪول ﻧﺠﺪ ان ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﻟﺮﺑﺢ اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ ﻓﯿﻤﺎ إذا اﺷﺘﺮي اﻟﺒﺎﺋﻊ‬
.‫ ﺟﺮﯾﺪة ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ وﻧﺤﺴﺐ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﻟﺮﺑﺢ اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ‬80 ‫ و‬70 ‫ و‬60 ‫ﻧﻜﺮر اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻟـ‬
:‫إﺟﺎﺑﺔ اﻟﺴﺆال اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‬
:‫ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬GPSS ‫ﻧﻜﻮن ﻧﻤﻮذج ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام‬
* Time Unit is one hour
*
Sizeorder FUNCTION RN1,D7 ;Order size
.10,6/.35,12/.65,18/.80,24/.92,30/.97,36/1.0,48
Transit TABLE M1,.015,.015,20 ;Transit time
; 4000 units
*********************************************************************
QUEUE Packing
DEPART Packing
TERMINATE
Stockout TERMINATE
*********************************************************************
* increased by 60
Stockad TERMINATE
*********************************************************************
TABULATE Number
SAVEVALUE 1,0
TERMINATE 1
*********************************************************************
TERMINATE
‫ واﺣﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪة ﺗﻘﺎرﯾﺮ ﻟﻠﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‬:‫اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‬
645
GPSS World Simulation Report - Manufact.1.1
Saturday, May 19, 2001 17:49:40
START TIME END TIME BLOCKS FACILITIES

STORAGES
0.000 80.000 23 1 1
NAME VALUE
AMOUNT 1000.000
MACHINE 10009.000
NUMBER 10003.000
PACKING 10008.000
PTIME 10004.000
SIZEORDER 10000.000
STOCK 10006.000
STOCKAD 16.000
STOCKOUT 13.000
TRANSIT 10002.000

RETRY
1 GENERATE 325 0
0
2 ASSIGN 325 0
0
3 TEST 325 0
0
4 LEAVE 325 0
0
5 QUEUE 325 0
0
6 SEIZE 325 0
0
7 DEPART 325 0
0
8 ADVANCE 325 0
0
9 RELEASE 325 0
0
10 SAVEVALUE 325 0
0
11 TABULATE 325 0
0
12 TERMINATE 325 0
0
STOCKOUT 13 TERMINATE 0 0
0
14 GENERATE 105 0
0
15 ENTER 105 0
0
STOCKAD 16 TERMINATE 105 0
0
17 GENERATE 10 0
0
18 TABULATE 10 0
0
646
19 SAVEVALUE 10 0
0
20 TERMINATE 10 0
0
21 GENERATE 1 0
0
22 ENTER 1 0
0
23 TERMINATE 1 0
0
FACILITY ENTRIES UTIL. AVE. TIME AVAIL. OWNER PEND INTER RETRY DELAY
MACHINE 325 0.354 0.087 1 0 0 0 0 0
QUEUE MAX CONT.ENTRY ENTRY(0)AVE.CONT. AVE.TIME AVE.(-0)RETR PACKING

4 0 325 208 0.104 0.026 0.071 0
STORAGE CAP. REM. MIN. MAX. ENTRIES AVL. AVE.C. UTIL. RETRY DELAY
STOCK 4000 2928 0 1378 7300 1 1132.973 0.283 0 0
TABLE MEAN STD.DEV. RANGE RETRY FREQUENCY CUM.%

TRANSIT 0.113 0.055 0
0.045 - 0.060
22 6.77
0.060 - 0.075
52 22.77
0.075 - 0.090
66 43.08
0.090 - 0.105
51 58.77
0.105 - 0.120
43 72.00
0.120 - 0.135
20 78.15
0.135 - 0.150
17 83.38
0.150 - 0.165
7 85.54
0.165 - 0.180
17 90.77
0.180 - 0.195
8 93.23
0.195 - 0.210
2 93.85
0.210 - 0.225
3 94.77
0.225 - 0.240
3 95.69
0.240 - 0.255
2 96.31
0.255 - 0.270
1 96.62
0.270 - 0.285
5 98.15
0.285 - _
6 100.00
NUMBER 622.800 156.046 0
647
300.000 - 400.000
1 10.00
400.000 - 500.000
1 20.00
500.000 - 600.000
1 30.00
600.000 - 700.000
4 70.00
700.000 - 800.000
2 90.00
800.000 - 900.000
1 100.00

1 0 0
FEC XN PRI BDT ASSEM CURRENT NEXT PARAMETER

VALUE
443 0 80.090 443 0 1
442 0 80.343 442 0 14
444 0 88.000 444 0 17
648
649
‫• ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻄﻠﺒﺎت اﻟﻤﻨﺘﻈﺮة ﻓﻲ ﻗﺴﻢ اﻟﺘﻌﺒﺌﺔ ھﻮ ﻓﻘﻂ ‪ . 0.12‬وھﻮ ﻣﻦ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ‪Ave.‬‬
‫‪ Cont.‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ ﺗﺤﺖ ‪.Queue Entity Packing‬‬
‫• ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺴﺎﻋﺎت اﻟﺮﻗﻤﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻮزﻋﺔ ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ ﻣﻌﻄﻰ ﻓﻲ ‪. Table Number‬‬
‫• ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﻷوﻗﺎت اﻹﻧﺘﻘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻄﻠﺒﺎت ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺪول ‪ TRANSIT‬وﻣﻮﺿﺤﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﺳﻢ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‪.‬‬
‫‪650‬‬

‫ ھـ‬1421-1420 ‫اﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻨﮭﺎﺋﻲ ﻟﻠﻔﺼﻞ اﻷول‬
(2 ‫ ﺑﺤﺚ ) طﺮق اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‬342 ‫اﻟﻤﺎدة‬
‫اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﺛﻼث ﺳﺎﻋﺎت‬

:‫اﺟﺐ ﻋﻠﻲ ﺟﻤﯿﻊ اﻷﺳﺌﻠﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬
:‫اﻟﺴﺆال اﻷول‬
:‫ﻋﺮف اﻟﻤﺼﻄﻠﺤﺎت اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ و أﻋﻄﻲ أﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ‬
(a) System state (b) Entity (c) Attributes (d) List (e) Event (f) Event list (g) Activity (h)
Simulation clock.
:‫اﻟﺴﺆال اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‬
A taxicab company operates one vehicle during the 9:00 A.M. to 5:00 P.M. period. Currently,
consideration is being given to the addition of a second vehicle to the fleet. The demand for taxi
follows the distribution shown:
Time between Calls (Minutes) 15 20 25 30 35

Probability 0.14 0.22 0.43 0.17 0.04
The distribution of time to complete a service is as follows:
Service Time (Minute) 5 15 25 35 45

Probability 0.12 0.35 0.43 0.06 0.04
a) Simulate the operation of the system for one day by hand.

b) Using ARENA simulate five individual days of operation of the current system and
the system with an additional taxicab. Compare the two systems with respect to the
waiting times of the customers and any other measures that might shed light on the
situation ( like vehicle utilization etc.)
651
‫ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺷﺎﺣﻨﺎت ﻧﻘﻞ اﻟﻔﺤﻢ‪:‬‬
‫ﻟﺪﯾﻨﺎ ‪ 6‬ﺷﺎﺣﻨﺎت ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻟﻨﻘﻞ اﻟﻔﺤﻢ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻨﺠﻢ اﻟﻰ ﻣﺤﻄﺔ اﻟﻘﻄﺎرات‪ .‬اﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻰ ﯾﻌﻄﻲ ﻣﺨﻄﻂ‬
‫ﻟﺬﻟﻚ‪.‬‬
‫‪Station‬‬
‫‪Travelig‬‬
‫‪text‬‬
‫‪Loading‬‬
‫‪text‬‬
‫‪Scale‬‬
‫‪Weighing‬‬
‫‪text‬‬
‫‪Queue‬‬
‫‪Loader Queue‬‬
‫‪text‬‬
‫ﻛﻞ ﺷﺎﺣﻨﺔ ﺗﺤﻤﻞ ﻣﻦ رﺻﯿﻒ واﺣﺪ ﻣﻦ اﺣﺪ رﺻﯿﻔﯿﻦ وﺑﻌﺪ اﻟﺘﺤﻤﯿﻞ ﺗﺘﺤﺮك اﻟﺸﺎﺣﻨﺔ إﻟﻰ رﺻﯿﻒ‬
‫وزن ﻟﻜﻲ ﺗﻮزن‪ ،‬زﻣﻦ اﻟﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ارﺻﻔﺔ اﻟﺸﺤﻦ ﻟﻠﻤﯿﺰان ﺗﺴﺘﻐﺮق ‪ 2 ± 1‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﻌﺪ اﻟﻮزن‬
‫ﺗﺘﺤﺮك اﻟﺸﺎﺣﻨﺔ اﻟﻰ ﻣﺤﻄﺔ اﻟﻘﻄﺎرات وﺗﻔﺮغ ﺷﺤﻨﺘﮭﺎ وﺗﻌﻮد اﻟﻰ ارﺻﻔﺔ اﻟﺸﺤﻦ ﻣﺮة ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻮزﯾﻌﺎت اوﻗﺎت اﻟﺸﺤﻦ واوﻗﺎت اﻟﻮزن وزﻣﻦ اﻟﺬھﺎب واﻟﻌﻮدة ﻣﻦ واﻟﻰ ﻣﺤﻄﺔ اﻟﻘﻄﺎرات ﻣﻌﻄﺎة‬
‫ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺪاول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺟﺪول ازﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﺘﺤﻤﯿﻞ‪.‬‬
‫‪Loading Time‬‬ ‫‪Probability‬‬

‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬
‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬
‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺟﺪول ازﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﻮزن‪.‬‬
‫‪Weighing Time‬‬ ‫‪Probability‬‬

‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬
‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﺟﺪول ازﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﺬھﺎب واﻟﻌﻮدة إﻟﻰ ﻣﺤﻄﺔ اﻟﻘﻄﺎرات‪.‬‬
‫‪652‬‬
‫‪Travel Time‬‬ ‫‪Probability‬‬
‫‪40‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪60‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬
‫‪80‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬
‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬
‫ﺟﻤﯿﻊ اﻷوﻗﺎت ﺗﻘﺎس ﺑﺎﻟﺪﻗﺎﺋﻖ‪.‬‬

‫اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﺗﻘﺪﯾﺮ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ارﺻﻔﺔ اﻟﺸﺤﻦ ورﺻﯿﻒ اﻟﻮزن وﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ‬
‫طﺎﺑﻮر‪.‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺣﺎﻛﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﯾﺪوﯾﺎ ﻟـ ‪ 5‬رﺣﻼت ﻟﻜﻞ ﺷﺎﺣﻨﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻧﻤﺬج اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﺑﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪ GPSS‬ﻟـ ‪ 100‬رﺣﻠﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺷﺎﺣﻨﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﻛﺮر اﻟﻔﻘﺮة ‪ 2‬ﺑﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪. ARENA‬‬
‫‪ -1‬اﻟﺤﻞ اﻟﺼﺤﯿﺢ ﯾﺴﺘﺤﻖ ‪ 30‬ﻋﻼﻣﺔ ﻣﻦ أﻋﻤﺎل اﻟﻔﺼﻞ‪ 10 ) .‬ﻋﻼﻣﺎت ﻟﻜﻞ ﻓﻘﺮة(‬
‫‪ -2‬آﺧﺮ ﻣﻮﻋﺪ ﻟﺘﺴﻠﯿﻢ اﻟﺤﻞ ‪ 10‬رﻣﻀﺎن ‪ 1422‬ھـ اﻟﻤﻮاﻓﻖ ‪ 25‬ﻓﺒﺮاﯾﺮ ‪ 2001‬م‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬اﻟﻤﺸﺎرﻛﺔ اﻟﺠﻤﺎﻋﯿﺔ ﺗﺸﺠﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻻﯾﺰﯾﺪ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻤﺸﺎرﻛﯿﻦ ﻋﻦ ‪. 2‬‬
‫د‪ .‬ﻋﺪﻧﺎن ﻣﺎﺟﺪ ﺑﺮي‬
‫‪653‬‬
‫أ( أوﺻﻒ أﻓﻀﻞ طﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﻟﺪراﺳﺔ اﻷﻧﻈﻤﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻣﻊ ذﻛﺮ ﺣﺎﻻت اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ‪ System states‬و‬
‫اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت ‪ Entities‬و ﺻﻔﺎت اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت ‪ Attributes‬و أﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ‪Activities‬‬
‫‪ (3‬ﻗﺴﻢ طﻮارئ ﺑﺄﺣﺪ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺸﻔﯿﺎت‬ ‫‪ (1‬ﻗﺴﻢ ﺻﻐﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺼﻨﻊ ‪ (2‬ﺗﻘﺎطﻊ طﺮﯾﻘﯿﻦ‬
‫ب( ﻣﺎ اﻟﻤﻘﺼﻮد ﺑﻄﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة اﻷﺣﺪاث اﻟﻤﻨﻔﺼﻠﺔ ‪Discrete-event Simulation Method‬‬
‫ﻣﻊ ذﻛﺮ اﻣﺜﻠﺔ‬
‫أ( أﺷﺮح ﺑﺈﯾﺠﺎز ﻣﻊ إﻋﻄﺎء ﻣﺜﺎل ﻋﻤﻞ ﻗﻮاﻟﺐ ‪ GPSS‬اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪1) GENERATE‬‬ ‫‪2) ADVANCE 3) ASSIGN 4) TERMINATE‬‬
‫‪5) TRANSFER‬‬ ‫‪6) TEST‬‬
‫ب( ﻣﺎ اﻟﻔﺮق ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ Facility‬و ‪ Storage‬وﻛﯿﻒ ﺗﺒﺮﻣﺞ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﮭﺎ ﺑﻠﻐﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪ GPSS‬ﻣﻊ إﻋﻄﺎء‬
‫أﻣﺜﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺗﺸﻐﻞ ﺷﺮﻛﺔ ﺗﺄﺟﯿﺮ ﺳﯿﺎرات ﺣﺪﯾﺜﺔ اﻹﻧﺸﺎء ﺳﯿﺎرة واﺣﺪة ﻓﻲ اﻟﻔﺘﺮة ‪ 9:00‬ﺻﺒﺎﺣﺎ وﺣﺘﻰ ‪5:00‬‬
‫ﻋﺼﺮا‪ .‬ﯾﻔﻜﺮ ﺻﺎﺣﺐ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻓﻲ إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺳﯿﺎرة ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺔ وﻟﻜﻦ ﺑﻌﺪ دراﺳﺔ ﻓﯿﻤﺎ اذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ اﻟﺤﺎﺟﺔ‬
‫ﺗﺘﻄﻠﺐ ذﻟﻚ‪ .‬اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﯿﺎرة اﺟﺮة ﺣﺴﺐ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻌﺔ ﻟﺪى اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ھﻲ‪:‬‬
‫)‪Time between calls (Minutes‬‬ ‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪25‬‬ ‫‪30‬‬ ‫‪35‬‬
‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪0.14‬‬ ‫‪0.22‬‬ ‫‪0.43‬‬ ‫‪0.17‬‬ ‫‪0.04‬‬
‫وﺗﻮزﯾﻊ وﻗﺖ إﻛﻤﺎل ﺧﺪﻣﺔ )ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻞ اﻟﺰﺑﻮن( ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫)‪Service Time (Minutes‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪25‬‬ ‫‪35‬‬ ‫‪45‬‬
‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪0.12‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.43‬‬ ‫‪0.06‬‬ ‫‪0.04‬‬
‫ﺣﺎﻛﻲ ﻧﻈﺎم اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻟﻤﺪة ‪ 100‬ﯾﻮم ﻟﻜﻲ ﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﺻﺎﺣﺐ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻹﺗﺨﺎذ ﻗﺮاره ﻓﯿﻤﺎ إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ھﻨﺎك‬
‫ﺣﺎﺟﺔ ﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺳﯿﺎرة ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫أ( ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻟﻐﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪GPSS‬‬
‫ب( وﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻟﻐﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة اﻟﺘﺼﻮﯾﺮﯾﺔ ‪ARENA‬‬
‫‪654‬‬
‫إﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻧﻤﻮذﺟﯿﺔ ﻟﻺﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻨﮭﺎﺋﻲ ﻟﻠﻔﺼﻞ اﻷول ‪ 1423/1422‬ھـ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺎدة ‪ 342‬ﺑﺤﺚ )طﺮق ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪(2‬‬

‫أ(‬
‫‪ (1‬ﻗﺴﻢ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺼﻨﻊ‪ :‬ﺑﺪون اﻟﻨﻈﺮ إﻟﻰ اﻟﻤﻨﺘﺞ وطﺒﯿﻌﺔ اﻟﺘﺼﻨﯿﻊ ﻓﺒﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺎم ھﻨﺎك ﻗﻄﻊ ﺗﺼﻨﻊ‬
‫ﺗﻤﺮ ﺑﻤﺎ ﯾﺴﻤﻰ ﺑﺨﻂ إﻧﺘﺎج وﯾﺘﻢ ﺗﺠﻤﯿﻌﮭﺎ ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮل ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﻨﺘﺞ اﻟﻨﮭﺎﺋﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺣﺎﻻت اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪ :‬ﻟﺤﻈﺔ وﺻﻮل ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﻟﺨﻂ اﻹﻧﺘﺎج‪ ،‬ﻟﺤﻈﺔ إﻧﺘﮭﺎء ﺗﺠﻤﯿﻊ ﻗﻄﻌﺔ اﻟﺦ‬
‫اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت‪ :‬اﻟﻘﻄﻊ‬
‫ﺻﻔﺎت اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت‪ :‬زﻣﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل‪ ،‬زﻣﻦ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ )زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﺠﻤﯿﻊ(‬
‫أﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪ :‬أوﻗﺎت اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ) ﻛﻞ ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ زﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻟﻠﻘﻄﻌﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ(‬
‫‪ (2‬ﺗﻘﺎطﻊ طﺮﯾﻘﯿﻦ‪ :‬وﯾﺘﻤﯿﺰ ﺑﻤﺮور ﺣﺎﻓﻼت ﻓﻲ ﺟﻤﯿﻊ اﻹﺗﺠﺎھﺎت ﺗﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﺑﮭﺎ إﺷﺎرات ﻣﺮور‪:‬‬
‫ﺣﺎﻻت اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪ :‬ﻟﺤﻈﺔ وﺻﻮل ﺣﺎﻓﻠﺔ اﻟﻰ اﻟﺘﻘﺎطﻊ‪ ،‬ﻟﺤﻈﺔ ﺗﻐﯿﺮ إﺷﺎرة اﻟﻤﺮور‬
‫اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت‪ :‬اﻟﺤﺎﻓﻼت‬
‫ﺻﻔﺎت اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت‪ :‬زﻣﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل‬
‫أﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪ :‬ﻋﺪد اﻟﺤﺎﻓﻼت اﻟﻤﻨﺘﻈﺮة ﻋﻨﺪ اﻟﺘﻘﺎطﻊ )وھﺬا ﯾﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺤﺎﻓﻼت اﻟﺘﻲ ﻓﻲ آﺧﺮ‬
‫اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر إﻣﺎ ﺗﻤﺮ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻓﺘﺢ اﻹﺷﺎرة أو ﺗﻘﻔﻞ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ اﻹﺷﺎرة ﻗﺒﻞ اﻟﻌﺒﻮر(‬
‫‪ (3‬ﻗﺴﻢ طﻮارئ ﺑﻤﺴﺘﺸﻔﻰ‪ :‬اﻟﻤﺼﺎﺑﯿﻦ ﻓﻲ ﺣﻮادث او ﻏﯿﺮھﺎ ﯾﺼﻠﻮا إﻟﻰ ﻗﺴﻢ اﻟﺤﻮادث ﻟﺘﻠﻘﻲ‬
‫اﻟﻌﻼج‬
‫‪ (4‬ﺣﺎﻻت اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪ :‬ﻟﺤﻈﺔ وﺻﻮل اﻟﻤﺼﺎب‪ ،‬ﻟﺤﻈﺔ إﻧﺘﮭﺎء اﻟﻌﻼج‬
‫اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت‪ :‬اﻟﻤﺼﺎﺑﯿﻦ‬
‫ﺻﻔﺎت اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت‪ :‬زﻣﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل‪ ،‬زﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻼج‬
‫أﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ‪ :‬وﻗﺖ اﻧﺘﻈﺎر اﻟﻌﻼج ) ﻛﻞ ﻣﺼﺎب ﯾﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ زﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻟﻠﻤﺼﺎب اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ(‬
‫ب( طﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة اﻷﺣﺪاث اﻟﻤﻨﻔﺼﻠﺔ‪ :‬ﻓﻲ ھﺬه اﻟﻄﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﺗﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﺣﺎﻻت اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻋﻨﺪ ﻧﻘﺎط زﻣﻨﯿﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻨﻔﺼﻠﺔ )أي ان اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﻣﺘﻘﻄﻊ ‪ ( Discrete‬واﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺤﺪث ﻓﯿﮭﺎ ﺣﺪث‪ .‬ﻣﺜﺎل ذﻟﻚ طﺎﺑﻮر ﺧﺪﻣﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺨﺎدم واﺣﺪ إذ ﯾﺼﻞ اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﻋﻨﺪ أزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﻨﻔﺼﻠﺔ ﺗﺘﺒﻊ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺔ ﺑﻮاﺳﻮن‪ .‬وﺻﻮل اﻟﺤﺎﻓﻼت إﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺗﻘﺎطﻊ طﺮﯾﻘﯿﻦ أﻟﺦ‪.‬‬
‫)أ(‬
‫‪(1) GENERATE A,B,C,D,E‬‬
‫‪A - Mean inter generation time.‬‬
‫‪B - Inter generation time half-range or Function Modifier.‬‬
‫‪C - Start delay time. Time increment for the first Transaction.‬‬
‫‪D - Creation limit.‬‬
‫‪E - Priority level.‬‬
‫‪Example: GENERATE 0.1‬‬
‫‪655‬‬
(2) ADVANCE A,B
Future Events Chain ‫ ﻋﻠﻲ ﻗﺎﺋﻣﺔ اﻷﺣداث اﻟﻣﺳﺗﻘﺑﻠﯾﺔ‬Transaction ‫ﯾﺿﻊ ﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل‬
A - The mean time increment.
B - The time half-range or, if a function, the function modifier.
Example: ADVANCE 101.6,50.3
(3) ASSIGN A,B,C
Transaction Parameter ‫ﯾﻌدل ﻣﻌﻠم اﻟﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل‬
A - Parameter number of the Active Transaction.
B - Value.
C - Function number.
Example: ASSIGN 2000,150.6
(4) TERMINATE A
A - Termination Count decrement. Default is 0.
Example: TERMINATE 1
(5) TRANSFER A,B,C,D
A - Transfer Block mode.
B - Block number or location.
C - Block number or location.
D - Block number increment for ALL Mode.
Examples:
(a) Unconditional Mode
TRANSFER ,New_Place
(b) Fractional Mode
(c) Both Mode
656
(d) All Mode
(e) Pick Mode
(f) Function Mode
TRANSFER FN,Func1,5
(g) Parameter Mode
(h) Subroutine Mode
(i) Simultaneous Mode
(6) TEST O A,B,C
‫ وﻋدل إﻧﺳﯾﺎب اﻟﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل‬arithmetic condition ‫اﺧﺗﺑر اﻟﺷرط اﻟﺣﺳﺎﺑﻲ‬
A - Test value.
B - Reference value.
C - Destination Block number.
Example: TEST G C1,70000
(‫)ب‬
‫ )ﺗﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ( ﺗﺴﺘﻮﻋﺐ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ واﺣﺪ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻋﻨﺪ أي وﻗﺖ ﻣﻦ اﻷوﻗﺎت و ﻟﺘﻤﺜﯿﻞ اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ‬Facility
RELEASE ‫ و‬SEIZE ‫ﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺒﯿﻦ‬
:‫ﻣﺜﺎل‬
GPSS BLOCKS
SEIZE Facility
GPSS BLOCKS
RELEASE Facility
GPSS BLOCKS
657
‫ وﻟﺘﻤﺜﯿﻞ‬STORAGE ‫ )ﻣﺨﺰن( ﯾﺴﺘﻮﻋﺐ اﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ واﺣﺪ وﯾﺤﺪد ﻟﮫ ﺳﻌﺔ ﺑﺎﻷﻣﺮ‬Storage
LEAVE ‫ و‬ENTER ‫اﻟﻤﺨﺰن ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ ﺳﻌﺘﺔ ﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺒﯿﻦ‬
:‫ﻣﺜﺎل‬
GPSS COMMANDS
SL STORAGE Capacity
GPSS COMMANDS
GPSS BLOCKS
ENTER SL
GPSS BLOCKS
LEAVE SL
GPSS BLOCKS
:‫إﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﺆال اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ‬
calls FUNCTION RN1,D5
0.14,15/0.36,20/0.79,25/0.96,30/1.0,35
sertime FUNCTION RN1,D5
0.12,5/0.47,15/0.9,25/0.96,35/1.0,45
callwait TABLE M1,10,10,20

*
GENERATE FN$calls
QUEUE cabq
SEIZE cab
DEPART cabq
ADVANCE FN$sertime
RELEASE cab
TABULATE callwait
TERMINATE 1
GPSS World Simulation Report - Untitled Model 1.1.1
Sunday, January 13, 2002 00:06:22
START TIME END TIME BLOCKS FACILITIES STORAGES

0.000 2455.000 8 1 0
NAME VALUE
CAB 10006.000
CABQ 10005.000
CALLS 10000.000
CALLWAIT 10004.000
SERTIME 10002.000

1 GENERATE 101 0 0
2 QUEUE 101 0 0
3 SEIZE 101 1 0
4 DEPART 100 0 0
5 ADVANCE 100 0 0
6 RELEASE 100 0 0
7 TABULATE 100 0 0
8 TERMINATE 100 0 0
CAB 101 0.827 20.099 1 101 0 0 0 0
658
QUEUE MAX CONT. ENTRY ENTRY(0) AVE.CONT. AVE.TIME AVE.(-0) RETRY
CABQ 3 1 101 60 0.261 6.337 15.610 0

CALLWAIT 26.650 13.410 0
_ - 10.000 7 7.00
10.000 - 20.000 27 34.00
20.000 - 30.000 39 73.00
30.000 - 40.000 13 86.00
40.000 - 50.000 9 95.00
50.000 - 60.000 3 98.00
60.000 - 70.000 2 100.00
CEC XN PRI M1 ASSEM CURRENT NEXT PARAMETER VALUE

101 0 2450.000 101 3 4
FEC XN PRI BDT ASSEM CURRENT NEXT PARAMETER VALUE

102 0 2475.000 102 0 1
‫ ﻣﻦ ﺟﺪول اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻧﺠﺪ أن زﻣﻦ‬.‫ وھﻲ ﻋﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻧﻮﻋﺎ ﻣﺎ‬% 82.7 ‫ﻧﻼﺣﻆ أن ﻓﻌﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﺴﯿﺎرة ھﻲ‬
‫ دﻗﺎﺋﻖ وھﻮ ﻋﺎﻟﻲ ﺟﺪا ﻛﻤﺎ‬26.65 ‫ دﻗﯿﻘﺔ وﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬70 ‫اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻓﻲ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ﻟﻠﺴﯿﺎرة ﯾﺼﻞ ﺣﺘﻰ‬
:‫ھﻮ ﻣﻮﺿﺢ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺪرج اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
ARENA ‫)ب( ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام‬
659
Project: Taxi Cab Problem Run execution date : 1/12/2001
Analyst: Model revision date: 1/12/2001
TALLY VARIABLES
_______________________________________________________________________________
finish_Ta 25.750 (Insuf) 22.000 27.000 4
cab_R_Q Queue Time 1.0000 (Insuf) .00000 5.0000 5
660
_______________________________________________________________________________
# in cab_R_Q .05000 (Insuf) .00000 1.0000 .00000
cab_R Busy .93000 (Insuf) .00000 1.0000 1.0000
cab_R Available 1.0000 (Insuf) 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000
COUNTERS
_________________________________________
finish_C 4 Infinite
%93 ‫ دﻗﯿﻘﺔ وﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﯿﺎرة‬25.75 ‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ ﻧﺠﺪ أن ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر‬
‫ ﻗﺪ ﯾﺤﺘﺎج ﺻﺎﺣﺐ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺳﯿﺎرة اﺧﺮى ﺣﺘﻰ ﻻﯾﻔﻘﺪ اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﺬﯾﻦ ﻟﮭﻢ ازﻣﺎن إﻧﺘﻈﺎر‬:‫اﻟﻘﺮار‬
.‫طﻮﯾﻠﺔ‬
SIMAN ‫اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺑﻠﻐﺔ‬
42$ CREATE, 1:DISC( 0.14,15,0.36,20,0.79,25,0.96,30,1.0,35 );
3$ STATION, calls;
51$ TRACE, -1,"-Arrived to system at station calls\n":;
661
27$ DELAY: 0.;
56$ TRACE, -1,"-Transferred to station cab\n":;
29$ ROUTE: 2,cab;
0$ STATION, cab;
158$ TRACE, -1,"-Arrived to station cab\n":;
121$ DELAY: 0.;
165$ TRACE, -1,"-Waiting for resource cab_R\n":;
82$ QUEUE, cab_R_Q:MARK(QueueTime);
83$ SEIZE, 1:
cab_R,1;
192$ BRANCH, 1:
If,RTYP(cab_R).eq.2,193$,Yes:
If,RTYP(cab_R).eq.1,95$,Yes;
193$ MOVE: cab_R,cab;
95$ TALLY: cab_R_Q Queue Time,INT(QueueTime),1;
202$ DELAY: 0.0;
TRACE, -1,"-Delay for processing time DISC(

0.12,5,0.47,15,0.9,25,0.96,35,1.0,45 )\n":;
84$ DELAY: DISC( 0.12,5,0.47,15,0.9,25,0.96,35,1.0,45 );
85$ RELEASE: cab_R,1;
149$ DELAY: 0.;
171$ TRACE, -1,"-Transferred to station finish\n":;
89$ ROUTE: 0.,finish;
662
2$ STATION, finish;
233$ TRACE, -1,"-Arrived to station finish\n":;
203$ DELAY: 0.;
225$ COUNT: finish_C,1;
230$ TALLY: finish_Ta,Interval(QueueTime),1;
232$ DISPOSE;
663

‫اﺷﺮح ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻔﺼﯿﻞ ﻋﻤﻞ اﻷواﻣﺮ و اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪SETS‬‬ ‫‪STORAGE‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬

‫‪TRANSIT‬‬ ‫‪TABLE‬‬ ‫‪M1,100,100,20‬‬
‫‪AGAIN‬‬ ‫‪GATE SNF‬‬ ‫‪SETS,OCCUPIED‬‬
‫‪ENTER‬‬ ‫‪SETS‬‬
‫‪ADVANCE‬‬ ‫‪180,60‬‬
‫‪LEAVE‬‬ ‫‪SETS‬‬
‫‪TABULATE‬‬ ‫‪TRANSIT‬‬
‫‪OCCUPIED‬‬ ‫‪ADVANCE‬‬ ‫‪300,60‬‬
‫‪TRANSFER‬‬ ‫‪,AGAIN‬‬
‫ﯾﻌﻤﻞ اﺣﻤﺪ وﺑﻜﺮ وﺧﺎﻟﺪ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻄﻌﻢ ﻟﻠﻮﺟﺒﺎت اﻟﺴﺮﯾﻌﺔ ﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‪ ،‬ﯾﺼﻞ اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ إﻟﻰ اﻟﻤﻄﻌﻢ‬
‫ﺑﻤﻌﺪل زﺑﻮن ﻛﻞ ‪ 5 ± 5‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‪ .‬ﯾﺨﺪم اﺣﻤﺪ وﺑﻜﺮ وﺧﺎﻟﺪ اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﺑﻤﻌﺪل زﺑﻮن ﻛﻞ ‪ 10 ± 6‬دﻗﺎﺋﻖ‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﯾﻔﻀﻠﻮا ﺧﺪﻣﺔ اﺣﻤﺪ ﻋﻦ ﺑﻜﺮ وﺧﺪﻣﺔ ﺑﻜﺮ ﻋﻦ ﺧﺎﻟﺪ‪ .‬إذا وﺟﺪ اﻟﺰﺑﻮن ان اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻤﻔﻀﻞ‬
‫ﻟﺪﯾﮫ ﻣﺸﻐﻮل ﻓﺈﻧﮫ ﯾﺨﺘﺎر اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻤﻔﻀﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪ .‬ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪ GPSS‬ﺣﺎﻛﻲ ﺣﺘﻰ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ ‪100‬‬
‫زﺑﻮن‪ .‬أوﺟﺪ ﻛﻞ اﻹﺣﺼﺎءات اﻟﻤﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﻋﻦ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪.‬‬
‫أ( أدﺧﻞ اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ اﻟﻤﺬﻛﻮر ﻓﻲ اﻟﺴﺆال اﻷول ﻓﻲ ‪ GPSS‬وﻗﻢ ﺑﺈﺟﺮاﺋﮫ ‪ 100‬ﻣﺮة وﺳﺠﻞ‬
‫اﻟﺠﺪول ‪TRANSIT‬‬
‫ب( ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ ‪ OPEN‬و ‪ WRITE‬و ‪ CLOSE‬أﺟﻤﻊ اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﺔ اﻟﻤﻨﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﻹﻧﺘﺎج ﻧﻔﺲ‬
‫اﻟﺠﺪول ﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ ‪EXCEL‬‬
‫‪664‬‬

‫‪SETS‬‬ ‫‪STORAGE‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫اﻷﻣﺮ‬
‫ﯾﻌﺮف اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ ‪ SETS‬ﻣﻦ ﻧﻮع ﻣﺨﺰن وﯾﻌﻄﯿﮫ ﺳﻌﺔ وﺣﺪﺗﯿﻦ ‪2‬‬
‫‪TRANSIT‬‬ ‫‪TABLE‬‬ ‫اﻷﻣﺮ ‪M1,100,100,20‬‬
‫ﯾﻌﺮف اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻦ ‪ TRANSIT‬ﻣﻦ ﻧﻮع ﺟﺪول وھﻮ ﺟﺪول ﺗﻜﺮاري ﻟﺰﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺮور ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ‪M1‬‬
‫ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ وﯾﺤﺪد ﻟﮫ ﺑﺪاﯾﺔ اﻟﻔﺌﺔ اﻷوﻟﻰ ‪ 100‬وﺳﻌﺔ اﻟﻔﺌﺔ ‪ 100‬وﻋﺪد اﻟﻔﺌﺎت ‪20‬‬
‫‪GENERATE‬‬ ‫اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ))‪(Exponential(1,0,200‬‬
‫ﯾﻘﻮم ﺑﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ ﺣﺴﺐ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻻﺳﻲ ﺑﻤﻌﺪل ‪ 200‬وﺣﺪة زﻣﻨﯿﺔ ﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل‬
‫‪AGAIN‬‬ ‫‪GATE SNF‬‬ ‫اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪SETS,OCCUPIED‬‬
‫ھﺬا اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ﻻﯾﺴﻤﺢ ﺑﻤﺮور اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻨﺸﻂ ﺣﺘﻰ ﯾﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﺷﺮط ان اﻟﻤﺨﺰن ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﻤﺘﻠﺊ ﻓﻔﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ‬
‫ﻋﺪم ﺗﻮﻓﺮ وﺣﺪة ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺰن ﯾﻨﺘﻘﻞ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻨﺸﻂ ﻟﻠﻘﺎﻟﺐ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ ‪ OCCUPIED‬ﻻﺣﻆ ان ھﺬا‬
‫اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ﻣﻌﻠﻢ ﺑـ ‪AGAIN‬‬
‫‪ENTER‬‬ ‫اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪SETS‬‬
‫ھﺬا اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ﯾُﻤﻠّﻚ اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻨﺸﻂ أﺣﺪ اﻟﻮﺣﺪات اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻓﺮة ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺨﺰن وﺑﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺗﺼﺒﺢ ﻣﺸﻐﻮﻟﺔ‬
‫وﺗﻨﻘﺺ ﻋﺪد وﺣﺪات اﻟﺘﺨﺰﯾﻦ ﺑﻮاﺣﺪ‬
‫‪ADVANCE‬‬ ‫اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪180,60‬‬
‫ﯾﻤﺜﻞ زﻣﻦ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ‬
‫‪LEAVE‬‬ ‫اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪SETS‬‬
‫ﺑﻌﺪ إﻧﺘﮭﺎء ﺧﺪﻣﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻨﺸﻂ ﯾﺠﻌﻞ ھﺬا اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ أﺣﺪ اﻟﻮﺣﺪات اﻟﻤﺸﻐﻮﻟﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺨﺰن ﻣﺘﻮﻓﺮة‬
‫ﻟﻺﺳﺘﺨﺪام‬
‫‪TABULATE‬‬ ‫اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪TRANSIT‬‬
‫ﯾﻘﻮم ھﺬا اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ﺑﺈﺿﺎﻓﺔ زﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺮور ﻟﻠﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻨﺸﻂ إﻟﻰ اﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري ‪TRANSIT‬‬
‫‪TERMINATE‬‬ ‫اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪1‬‬
‫ﺧﺮوج اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻨﺸﻂ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم وﯾﺘﻢ إﻧﻘﺎص ﻋﺪاد اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺑﻮاﺣﺪ‬
‫‪OCCUPIED ADVANCE‬‬ ‫اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪300,60‬‬
‫ھﺬا اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ اﻟﺬي ﯾﺤﻮل اﻟﯿﮫ اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ اﻟﻨﺸﻂ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻛﻮن ﺟﻤﯿﻊ وﺣﺪات اﻟﻤﺨﺰن ﻣﺸﻐﻮﻟﺔ وﯾﻤﺜﻞ‬
‫زﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻗﺒﻞ إﻋﺎدة اﻟﻤﺤﺎوﻟﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﺮور ﺑﺎﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻣﺮة اﺧﺮي‬
‫‪TRANSFER‬‬ ‫اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪,AGAIN‬‬
‫ﺗﺤﻮﯾﻞ ﻏﯿﺮ ﺷﺮطﻲ وإﺟﺒﺎري ﻟﻠﻘﻠﺐ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻢ ﺑـ ‪AGAIN‬‬
‫إﺟﺎﺑﺔ اﻟﺴﺆال اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‪:‬‬

‫اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﻓﻲ اﺑﺴﻂ أﺷﻜﺎﻟﮫ ) اﻗﻞ اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﻣﻦ اﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ(‬
‫‪TRANSFER‬‬ ‫‪BOTH,,BAKR‬‬
‫‪SEIZE‬‬ ‫‪AHMD‬‬
‫‪ADVANCE‬‬ ‫‪10,6‬‬
‫‪RELEASE‬‬ ‫‪AHMD‬‬
‫‪665‬‬
TERMINATE 1
BAKR TRANSFER BOTH,,KHLD
SEIZE BAKRS
ADVANCE 10,6
RELEASE BAKRS
TERMINATE 1
KHLD SEIZE KHLDS
ADVANCE 10,6
RELEASE KHLDS
TERMINATE 1
GPSS World Simulation Report - OR342F22223TEST.5.1

0.000 527.111 15 3 0
NAME VALUE
AHMD 10001.000
BAKR 7.000
BAKRS 10003.000
KHLD 12.000
KHLDS 10004.000

1 GENERATE 100 0 0
2 TRANSFER 100 0 0
3 SEIZE 38 0 0
4 ADVANCE 38 0 0
5 RELEASE 38 0 0
6 TERMINATE 38 0 0
BAKR 7 TRANSFER 62 0 0
8 SEIZE 33 0 0
9 ADVANCE 33 0 0
10 RELEASE 33 0 0
11 TERMINATE 33 0 0
KHLD 12 SEIZE 29 0 0
13 ADVANCE 29 0 0
14 RELEASE 29 0 0
15 TERMINATE 29 0 0
AHMD 38 0.742 10.291 1 0 0 0 0 0
BAKRS 33 0.625 9.987 1 0 0 0 0 0
KHLDS 29 0.538 9.782 1 0 0 0 0 0
:‫وﻧﺴﺘﺨﻠﺺ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬

‫ زﺑﻮن‬29 ‫ زﺑﻮن وﺧﺎﻟﺪ ﺑﺨﺪﻣﺔ‬33 ‫ زﺑﻮن وﺑﻜﺮ ﺑﺨﺪﻣﺔ‬38 ‫ زﺑﻮن ﻗﺎم اﺣﻤﺪ ﺑﺨﺪﻣﺔ‬100 ‫ ﻣﻦ‬-1
% 53.8 ‫ وﺧﺎﻟﺪ‬% 62.5 ‫ وﺑﻜﺮ‬% 74.2 ‫ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﺣﻤﺪ‬-2
‫ وﺣﺪة‬9.78 ‫ وﺣﺪة زﻣﻨﯿﺔ وﻟﺨﺎﻟﺪ‬9.99 ‫ وﺣﺪة زﻣﻨﯿﺔ وﻟﺒﻜﺮ‬10.29 ‫ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻷﺣﻤﺪ‬-3
‫زﻣﻨﯿﺔ‬

SETS STORAGE 2
TRANSIT TABLE M1,100,100,20
AGAIN GATE SNF SETS,OCCUPIED
ENTER SETS
666
ADVANCE 180,60
LEAVE SETS
TABULATE TRANSIT
OPEN ("OR342TEST.TXT")
WRITE M1
CLOSE
TERMINATE 1
OCCUPIED ADVANCE 300,60
TRANSFER ,AGAIN
GPSS ‫اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﻣﻦ‬


0.000 20542.415 12 0 1
NAME VALUE
AGAIN 2.000
OCCUPIED 11.000
SETS 10000.000
TRANSIT 10001.000

1 GENERATE 101 0 0
AGAIN 2 GATE 139 0 0
3 ENTER 101 0 0
4 ADVANCE 101 1 0
5 LEAVE 100 0 0
6 TABULATE 100 0 0
7 OPEN 100 0 0
8 WRITE 100 0 0
9 CLOSE 100 0 0
OCCUPIED 11 ADVANCE 38 0 0
12 TRANSFER 38 0 0
SETS 2 1 0 2 101 1 0.880 0.440 0 0

TRANSIT 297.446 218.612 0
100.000 - 200.000 43 43.00
200.000 - 300.000 29 72.00
300.000 - 400.000 0 72.00
400.000 - 500.000 12 84.00
500.000 - 600.000 9 93.00
600.000 - 700.000 1 94.00
700.000 - 800.000 2 96.00
800.000 - 900.000 1 97.00
900.000 - 1000.000 0 97.00
1000.000 - 1100.000 2 99.00
1100.000 - 1200.000 1 100.00
EXCEL ‫اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام‬
447.19104 120.9797 100 Bin Frequency

142.45752 1159.576 200 100 0
141.44256 300 200 43
153.0858 400 300 29
224.15124 500 400 0
187.07448 600 500 12
473.57184 700 600 9
187.85268 800 700 1
667
138.25368 900 800 2
583.11864 1000 900 1
126.55968 1100 1000 0
210.52992 1200 1100 2
166.04964 1200 1
202.2108 More 0
221.46168
144.26412
170.22144
151.45536
564.96312
401.00184
168.51948
227.982
493.75908
645.29976
128.09292
172.87824
214.55064
134.52924
238.19016
523.35684
188.38032
156.58548
199.62912
225.40236
214.041
1098.33264
163.29384
709.89768
195.2046
212.42136
403.98228
207.80292
874.81932
223.1532
512.68284
210.61992
195.47808
230.361
170.83992
190.97136
166.10148
205.11792
528.2358
213.90372
668
124.18656
131.94768
232.80108
443.54328
441.855
579.49092
1159.57632
787.90956
234.73992
458.39088
217.89816
215.5128
234.14784
149.37048
120.97968
200.424
577.71828
122.3448
148.4562
214.66848
122.07684
169.5528
184.78092
225.53004
212.53392
153.53736
213.2232
128.63448
145.53648
206.16264
489.95664
560.03004
470.44152
125.72004
198.56412
1037.46348
513.23496
405.47844
135.97596
183.97836
485.02836
214.5666
161.3094
122.68596
175.62636
225.71892
669
‫وﻧﻼﺣﻆ ﺗﻄﺎﺑﻖ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‬
‫‪670‬‬

‫ ھـ‬1421-1420 ‫اﻻﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻨﮭﺎﺋﻲ ﻟﻠﻔﺼﻞ اﻷول‬
(2 ‫ ﺑﺤﺚ ) طﺮق اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‬342 ‫اﻟﻤﺎدة‬
‫اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﺛﻼث ﺳﺎﻋﺎت‬

:‫اﺟﺐ ﻋﻠﻲ ﺟﻤﯿﻊ اﻷﺳﺌﻠﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬
:‫اﻟﺴﺆال اﻷول‬
:‫ﻋﺮف اﻟﻤﺼﻄﻠﺤﺎت اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ و أﻋﻄﻲ أﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ‬
(a) System state (b) Entity (c) Attributes (d) List (e) Event (f) Event list (g) Activity (h)
Simulation clock.
:‫اﻟﺴﺆال اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‬
A taxicab company operates one vehicle during the 9:00 A.M. to 5:00 P.M. period. Currently,
consideration is being given to the addition of a second vehicle to the fleet. The demand for taxi
follows the distribution shown:
Time between Calls (Minutes) 15 20 25 30 35

Probability 0.14 0.22 0.43 0.17 0.04
The distribution of time to complete a service is as follows:
Service Time (Minute) 5 15 25 35 45

Probability 0.12 0.35 0.43 0.06 0.04
a) Simulate the operation of the system for one day by hand.

b) Using ARENA simulate five individual days of operation of the current system and
the system with an additional taxicab. Compare the two systems with respect to the
waiting times of the customers and any other measures that might shed light on the
situation ( like vehicle utilization etc.)
671
‫ﻣﺎدة ‪ 342‬ﺑﺤﺚ ) طﺮق اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪( 2‬‬
‫إﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻷول ‪ 1421‬ھـ‪ 1422/‬ھـ‬

‫ا( ﻋﺮف طﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة اﻷﺣﺪاث اﻟﻤﻨﻔﺼﻠﺔ ‪ Discrete-event simulation method‬و أذﻛﺮ‬
‫أﻣﺜﻠﺔ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ‬
‫ب( ﻗﺎرن ﺑﯿﻦ طﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﺟﺪوﻟﺔ اﻷﺣﺪاث ‪ Event schedualing‬وطﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﺗﻔﺎﻋﻞ اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺎت ‪Process‬‬
‫‪ interaction‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‬
‫ح( ﻗﺎرن ﺑﯿﻦ ﻣﯿﻜﺎﻧﯿﻜﯿﺔ ﺗﻘﺪم زﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة اﻟﻤﻌﺘﻤﺪة ﻋﻠﻰ اﻷﺣﺪاث ‪Next event time‬‬
‫‪ advance‬و اﻟﺜﺎﺑﺘﺔ ‪Fixed increment time advance‬‬
‫ﻣﺮﻛﺰ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ ﯾﺘﻜﻮن ﻣﻦ ﺧﺎدﻣﯿﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﻮاﻟﻲ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﮭﻢ ﻟﮫ ﻧﻈﺎم طﺎﺑﻮر ‪ ، FIFO‬أي زﺑﻮن ﯾﻜﻤﻞ‬
‫اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻣﻊ اﻟﺨﺎدم اﻷول ﯾﺘﺠﮫ إﻟﻰ اﻟﺨﺎدم اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ وﻣﻦ ﺑﻌﺪ إﻛﻤﺎﻟﮫ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻣﻊ اﻟﺨﺎدم اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﯾﻐﺎدر‬
‫اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪ .‬ﻟﻨﻔﺘﺮض أن زﻣﻦ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل ﻟﻠﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﻟﻠﺨﺎدم اﻷول ﻟﮫ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﺳﻲ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‬
‫واﺣﺪة‪ .‬زﻣﻦ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ اﻟﺨﺎدم اﻷول ﻟﮭﺎ أﯾﻀﺎ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﺳﻲ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 0,7‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ وﻋﻨﺪ اﻟﺨﺎدم‬
‫اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻟﮭﺎ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﺳﻲ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 0،9‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‪ .‬أوﺟﺪ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺎ ‪: GPSS‬‬
‫ت( أﺟﺮي ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم ﻟﻌﺪد ‪ 100‬زﺑﻮن وﻗﺪر ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻟﻠﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ‪ ،‬ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﺪد‬
‫اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ طﺎﺑﻮر اﻟﺨﺎدﻣﯿﻦ وﻗﺪر ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺨﺎدﻣﯿﻦ‪.‬‬
‫ث( ﻟﻨﻔﺘﺮض أﻧﮫ ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﻓﺘﺮة زﻣﻨﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﺘﻮﺟﮫ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺨﺎدم اﻷول إﻟﻰ اﻟﺨﺎدم اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ واﻟﺘﻲ ﻟﮭﺎ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ‬
‫ﻣﺘﻤﺎﺛﻞ ﺑﯿﻦ دﻗﯿﻘﺔ وﺛﻼث دﻗﺎﺋﻖ‪ .‬أﻋﺪ إﺟﺮاء اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺗﺤﺖ ھﺬه اﻟﻈﺮوف وأوﺟﺪ اﻟﺘﻘﺪﯾﺮات‬
‫اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ج( ﻟﻨﻔﺘﺮض أن ‪ %20‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﻻﯾﺤﺘﺎج إﻟﻰ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ اﻟﺨﺎدم اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﺑﻞ ﯾﻐﺎدر اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﺑﻌﺪ إﻛﻤﺎل‬
‫اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻣﻊ اﻟﺨﺎدم اﻻول‪ .‬أﺟﺮ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﺗﺤﺖ ھﺬه اﻟﻈﺮوف وأوﺟﺪ اﻟﺘﻘﺪﯾﺮات اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪672‬‬

‫أﺟﺐ ﻋﻠﻲ واﺣﺪ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻣﻦ اﻷﺳﺌﻠﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺎ ‪:GPSS WORLD‬‬
‫)أ( ﺗﺼﻨﻊ ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﻋﻦ طﺮﯾﻖ ﻣﺘﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺎت‪ ،‬ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﮭﺎ ﺗﺘﺒﻊ ﺑﺪﻗﯿﻘﺘﯿﻦ ﻟﻠﻔﺤﺺ‪ .‬اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺔ اﻷوﻟﻰ‬

‫‪Frequency‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪0.13‬‬ ‫‪0.16‬‬ ‫‪0.22‬‬ ‫‪0.29‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬
‫)‪Process time (mins‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪14‬‬ ‫‪21‬‬ ‫‪32‬‬ ‫‪38‬‬ ‫‪45‬‬
‫إﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﯿﺎري ‪ 4‬دﻗﺎﺋﻖ‪ .‬ﺣﺎﻛﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺎت اﻟﺘﺼﻨﯿﻊ ﻟـ ‪ 100‬ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﻣﻜﺘﻤﻠﺔ‪ .‬ﻋﯿﻦ اﻟﺰﻣﻦ اﻵزم ﻟﺬﻟﻚ‬
‫وﻋﺪد اﻟﻘﻄﻊ اﻟﻤﺮﻓﻮﺿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫أو‬
‫)ب( ﻣﺨﺰون ﻣﻨﺘﺞ ﻧﮭﺎﺋﻲ ﯾﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﺑﮫ ﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ ﻣﺮاﺟﻌﺔ دورﯾﺔ اﺳﺒﻮﻋﯿﺎ‪ .‬اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻹﺑﺘﺪاﺋﻲ ﯾﺘﻜﻮن‬
‫ﻣﻦ ‪ 1000‬وﺣﺪة‪ .‬اﻟﻄﻠﺐ اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ ﯾﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 40‬و ‪ 63‬وﺣﺪة وﺑﺈﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﻣﺘﺴﺎوي‪ .‬اﻟﻤﺨﺰون‬
‫اﻟﻤﺴﺘﮭﺪف ھﻮ ‪ 1000‬وﺣﺪة‪ ،‬اي ان ﺗﻌﺪﯾﻞ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ﯾﺘﻢ ﺑﻄﻠﺐ اﻟﻔﺮق ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮد و‬
‫‪1000‬وﺣﺪة‪ .‬ﻓﺈذا ﻛﺎن اﻟﻤﺨﺰون اﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮد ھﻮ ‪ 800‬وﺣﺪة او اﻛﺜﺮ ﻓﻠﻦ ﯾﻌﺪل اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ﻟﺬﻟﻚ‬
‫اﻻﺳﺒﻮع‪ .‬اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﺑﻨﻈﺎم ﺧﻤﺴﺔ اﯾﺎم ﻟﻺﺳﺒﻮع‪ .‬زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻘﺪم ‪ lead time‬ﻟﺘﻮﺻﯿﻞ اﻟﻄﻠﺒﯿﺔ ھﻮ‬
‫اﺳﺒﻮع واﺣﺪ‪ .‬ﺣﺎﻛﻲ ﻧﻈﺎم اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ﻟﻤﺪة ‪ 200‬ﯾﻮم وﺗﺤﻖ ﻓﯿﻤﺎ إذا ﻛﺎن ھﻨﺎك اي ﻧﻘﺺ ﻟﻠﻤﺨﺰون‬
‫‪.stockouts‬‬
‫‪673‬‬
(‫ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺗﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻧﺘﯿﺠﺔ اﻷﻋﺪاد اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ‬:‫إﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﺆال )أ( )ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ‬

*****************************************************************
* Quality Control Program *
* Time units are in minutes *
*****************************************************************
RMULT 93211
* Definitions
Transit TABLE M1,100,100,20 ;Transit Time
0,0/.05,10/.18,14/.34,21/.56,32/.85,38/1.0,45
*****************************************************************
RELEASE Machine1
*****************************************************************
RELEASE Machine2
*****************************************************************
RELEASE Machine3
TERMINATE 1
*****************************************************************
TERMINATE
TERMINATE
TERMINATE
(‫ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ ﺗﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﻧﺘﯿﺠﺔ اﻷﻋﺪاد اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺔ‬:‫إﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﺆال )ب( )ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ‬
*********************************************************************
*
*
*********************************************************************
674
RMULT 39941
*********************************************************************
*********************************************************************
demand
*********************************************************************
675


‫أﺟﺐ ﻋﻠﻲ اﻷﺳﺌﻠﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﺴﺆال أﻷول‪:‬‬

‫‪40‬‬ ‫‪0.03‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬ ‫‪0.44‬‬
‫‪50‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪0.18‬‬ ‫‪0.22‬‬
‫‪60‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪0.40‬‬ ‫‪0.16‬‬
‫‪70‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬ ‫‪0.12‬‬
‫‪80‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.08‬‬ ‫‪0.06‬‬
‫‪90‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪0.04‬‬ ‫‪0.00‬‬
‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪0.07‬‬ ‫‪0.00‬‬ ‫‪0.00‬‬
‫ﺣﺎﻛﻲ ‪ 10‬أﯾﺎم ﯾﺪوﯾﺎ ﻹﯾﺠﺎد اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﻓﯿﻤﺎ إذا أﺷﺘﺮى اﻟﺒﺎﺋﻊ ‪ 80,70,60,50‬ﺟﺮﯾﺪة ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪P=R–C–L+S‬‬
‫‪676‬‬
‫ﯾﻘﻮم ﻗﺴﻢ اﻟﺘﺼﻨﯿﻊ ﻓﻲ ﺷﺮﻛﺔ إﻟﻜﺘﺮوﻧﺎت ﺑﺼﻨﺎﻋﺔ ﺳﺎﻋﺎت رﻗﻤﯿﺔ‪ .‬ﺗﻌﺒﺄ اﻟﺴﺎﻋﺎت ﻓﻲ ﻗﺴﻢ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ‬
‫‪Order Size‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪18‬‬ ‫‪24‬‬ ‫‪30‬‬ ‫‪36‬‬ ‫‪48‬‬

‫‪Frequency 0.10‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.30‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪0.12‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪0.03‬‬
‫ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪ GPSS‬ﺣﺎﻛﻲ ‪ 10‬أﯾﺎم ﻣﻦ ﻧﺸﺎط اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻟﻜﻲ ﺗﻌﻄﻲ اﻟﻤﻌﻠﻮﻣﺎت اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬

‫‪677‬‬
‫ﻗﺴﻢ اﻹﺣﺼﺎء و ﺑﺤﻮث اﻟﻌﻤﻠﯿﺎت‬

‫ﻣﺎدة ‪ 342‬ﺑﺤﺚ ) اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪( 2‬‬
‫ﻧﻜﻮن ﺟﺪول )‪ (1‬ﻟﻨﻮع اﻟﯿﻮم اﻷﺧﺒﺎري‪:‬‬
‫‪News Day‬‬ ‫‪Prob.‬‬ ‫‪Cum. Prob‬‬ ‫‪Random Digit‬‬
‫‪Good‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪01-35‬‬
‫‪Fair‬‬ ‫‪0.45‬‬ ‫‪0.80‬‬ ‫‪36-80‬‬
‫‪Poor‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪81-00‬‬
‫ﻧﻜﻮن ﺟﺪول )‪ (2‬ﻟﻠﻄﻠﺐ ﻟﻠﯿﻮم اﻷﺧﺒﺎري اﻟﺠﯿﺪ‪:‬‬
‫‪40‬‬ ‫‪0.03‬‬ ‫‪0.03‬‬ ‫‪01-03‬‬
‫‪50‬‬ ‫‪0.05‬‬ ‫‪0.08‬‬ ‫‪04-08‬‬
‫‪60‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪0.23‬‬ ‫‪09-23‬‬
‫‪70‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬ ‫‪0.43‬‬ ‫‪24-43‬‬
‫‪80‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.78‬‬ ‫‪44-78‬‬
‫‪90‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬ ‫‪0.93‬‬ ‫‪79-93‬‬
‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪94-00‬‬
‫ﻧﻜﻮن ﺟﺪول )‪ (3‬ﻟﻠﻄﻠﺐ ﻟﻠﯿﻮم اﻷﺧﺒﺎري ﻻﺑﺄس ﺑﮫ‪:‬‬
‫‪40‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬ ‫‪01-10‬‬
‫‪678‬‬
‫‪50‬‬ ‫‪0.18‬‬ ‫‪0.28‬‬ ‫‪11-28‬‬
‫‪60‬‬ ‫‪0.40‬‬ ‫‪0.68‬‬ ‫‪29-68‬‬
‫‪70‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬ ‫‪0.88‬‬ ‫‪69-88‬‬
‫‪80‬‬ ‫‪0.08‬‬ ‫‪0.96‬‬ ‫‪89-96‬‬
‫‪90‬‬ ‫‪0.04‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪97-00‬‬
‫ﻧﻜﻮن ﺟﺪول )‪ (4‬ﻟﻠﻄﻠﺐ ﻟﻠﯿﻮم اﻷﺧﺒﺎري اﻟﺴﯿﺊ ‪:‬‬
‫‪40‬‬ ‫‪0.44‬‬ ‫‪0.44‬‬ ‫‪01-44‬‬
‫‪50‬‬ ‫‪0.22‬‬ ‫‪0.66‬‬ ‫‪45-66‬‬
‫‪60‬‬ ‫‪0.16‬‬ ‫‪0.82‬‬ ‫‪67-82‬‬
‫‪70‬‬ ‫‪0.12‬‬ ‫‪0.94‬‬ ‫‪83-94‬‬
‫‪80‬‬ ‫‪0.06‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪95-00‬‬
‫ﻧﺒﺪأ اﻟﻤﺤﻜﺎة ﻟﻠﯿﻮم اﻷول‪:‬‬

‫ﻋﺪد اﻟﺠﺮاﺋﺪ اﻟﻤﺸﺘﺮاة = ‪ 50‬ﺟﺮﯾﺪة ﺑﺴﻌﺮ ‪ 75‬﷼ ) ‪(C = 75 SR‬‬
‫ﻧﻮع اﻟﯿﻮم اﻷﺧﺒﺎري‪ :‬ﻧﺴﺤﺐ رﻗﻢ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺟﺪول ‪ 64 = A.1.‬ﻻﺑﺄس ﺑﮫ‬
‫اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻟﻠﯿﻮم اﻷول‪ :‬ﻧﺴﺤﺐ رﻗﻢ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ = ‪ 13‬وﻣﻦ ﺟﺪول )‪ (3‬اﻟﻄﻠﺐ = ‪50‬‬
‫‪P=R–C–L+S‬‬
‫‪= 2x50 – 1.5x 50 – 0 + 0 = 25 SR‬‬
‫ﻋﺪد اﻟﺠﺮاﺋﺪ اﻟﻤﺸﺘﺮاة = ‪ 50‬ﺟﺮﯾﺪة‬
‫ﻧﻮع اﻟﯿﻮم اﻷﺧﺒﺎري‪ :‬ﻧﺴﺤﺐ رﻗﻢ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻣﻦ ﺟﺪول ‪ 82 = A.1.‬ﺳﯿﺊ‬
‫اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻟﻠﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‪ :‬اﻟﺮﻗﻢ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ‪ 45‬وﻣﻦ ﺟﺪول )‪ (4‬اﻟﻄﻠﺐ = ‪50‬‬
‫‪P=R–C–L+S‬‬
‫‪= 2x50 – 1.5x 50 – 0 + 0 = 25 SR‬‬
‫وھﻜﺬا وﻧﻜﻮن ﺟﺪول ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪Day‬‬ ‫‪R.D.‬‬ ‫‪Newsday‬‬ ‫‪R.D.‬‬ ‫‪Demand‬‬ ‫‪R L‬‬ ‫‪S‬‬ ‫‪P‬‬

‫‪Newsday‬‬ ‫‪Demand‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪64‬‬ ‫‪Fair‬‬ ‫‪13‬‬ ‫‪50‬‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪25‬‬

‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪82‬‬ ‫‪Poor‬‬ ‫‪45‬‬ ‫‪50‬‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪25‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪26‬‬ ‫‪Good‬‬ ‫‪93‬‬ ‫‪90‬‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪35‬‬ ‫‪Good‬‬ ‫‪80‬‬ ‫‪90‬‬ ‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬
‫‪679‬‬
5 17 Good 04 50 100 0 0 25
6 45 Fair 20 50 100 0 0 25
7 03 Good 88 90 100 20 0 5
8 72 Fair 03 40 80 0 2 7
9 83 Poor 78 60 100 5 0 20
10 69 Fair 03 40 80 0 2 7
‫ ﷼‬14.5 ‫ ﺟﺮﯾﺪة ﻓﻲ اﻟﯿﻮم ھﻮ‬50 ‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﺠﺪول ﻧﺠﺪ ان ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﻟﺮﺑﺢ اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ ﻓﯿﻤﺎ إذا اﺷﺘﺮي اﻟﺒﺎﺋﻊ‬
.‫ ﺟﺮﯾﺪة ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ وﻧﺤﺴﺐ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﻟﺮﺑﺢ اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ‬80 ‫ و‬70 ‫ و‬60 ‫ﻧﻜﺮر اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻟـ‬
:‫إﺟﺎﺑﺔ اﻟﺴﺆال اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‬
:‫ ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬GPSS ‫ﻧﻜﻮن ﻧﻤﻮذج ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام‬
* Time Unit is one hour
*
Sizeorder FUNCTION RN1,D7 ;Order size
.10,6/.35,12/.65,18/.80,24/.92,30/.97,36/1.0,48
Transit TABLE M1,.015,.015,20 ;Transit time
; 4000 units
*********************************************************************
QUEUE Packing
DEPART Packing
TERMINATE
Stockout TERMINATE
*********************************************************************
* increased by 60
Stockad TERMINATE
*********************************************************************
TABULATE Number
SAVEVALUE 1,0
TERMINATE 1
*********************************************************************
TERMINATE
‫ واﺣﺪ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪة ﺗﻘﺎرﯾﺮ ﻟﻠﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‬:‫اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‬
680
GPSS World Simulation Report - Manufact.1.1
Saturday, May 19, 2001 17:49:40
START TIME END TIME BLOCKS FACILITIES

STORAGES
0.000 80.000 23 1 1
NAME VALUE
AMOUNT 1000.000
MACHINE 10009.000
NUMBER 10003.000
PACKING 10008.000
PTIME 10004.000
SIZEORDER 10000.000
STOCK 10006.000
STOCKAD 16.000
STOCKOUT 13.000
TRANSIT 10002.000

RETRY
1 GENERATE 325 0
0
2 ASSIGN 325 0
0
3 TEST 325 0
0
4 LEAVE 325 0
0
5 QUEUE 325 0
0
6 SEIZE 325 0
0
7 DEPART 325 0
0
8 ADVANCE 325 0
0
9 RELEASE 325 0
0
10 SAVEVALUE 325 0
0
11 TABULATE 325 0
0
12 TERMINATE 325 0
0
STOCKOUT 13 TERMINATE 0 0
0
14 GENERATE 105 0
0
15 ENTER 105 0
0
STOCKAD 16 TERMINATE 105 0
0
17 GENERATE 10 0
0
18 TABULATE 10 0
0
681
19 SAVEVALUE 10 0
0
20 TERMINATE 10 0
0
21 GENERATE 1 0
0
22 ENTER 1 0
0
23 TERMINATE 1 0
0
MACHINE 325 0.354 0.087 1 0 0 0 0 0
QUEUE MAX CONT.ENTRY ENTRY(0)AVE.CONT. AVE.TIME AVE.(-0)RETR PACKING

4 0 325 208 0.104 0.026 0.071 0
STOCK 4000 2928 0 1378 7300 1 1132.973 0.283 0 0

TRANSIT 0.113 0.055 0
0.045 - 0.060
22 6.77
0.060 - 0.075
52 22.77
0.075 - 0.090
66 43.08
0.090 - 0.105
51 58.77
0.105 - 0.120
43 72.00
0.120 - 0.135
20 78.15
0.135 - 0.150
17 83.38
0.150 - 0.165
7 85.54
0.165 - 0.180
17 90.77
0.180 - 0.195
8 93.23
0.195 - 0.210
2 93.85
0.210 - 0.225
3 94.77
0.225 - 0.240
3 95.69
0.240 - 0.255
2 96.31
0.255 - 0.270
1 96.62
0.270 - 0.285
5 98.15
0.285 - _
6 100.00
NUMBER 622.800 156.046 0
682
300.000 - 400.000
1 10.00
400.000 - 500.000
1 20.00
500.000 - 600.000
1 30.00
600.000 - 700.000
4 70.00
700.000 - 800.000
2 90.00
800.000 - 900.000
1 100.00

1 0 0
FEC XN PRI BDT ASSEM CURRENT NEXT PARAMETER

VALUE
443 0 80.090 443 0 1
442 0 80.343 442 0 14
444 0 88.000 444 0 17
683
684
‫• ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻄﻠﺒﺎت اﻟﻤﻨﺘﻈﺮة ﻓﻲ ﻗﺴﻢ اﻟﺘﻌﺒﺌﺔ ھﻮ ﻓﻘﻂ ‪ . 0.12‬وھﻮ ﻣﻦ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ‪Ave.‬‬
‫‪ Cont.‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ ﺗﺤﺖ ‪.Queue Entity Packing‬‬
‫• ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺴﺎﻋﺎت اﻟﺮﻗﻤﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻮزﻋﺔ ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ ﻣﻌﻄﻰ ﻓﻲ ‪. Table Number‬‬
‫• ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﻷوﻗﺎت اﻹﻧﺘﻘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻄﻠﺒﺎت ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺪول ‪ TRANSIT‬وﻣﻮﺿﺤﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺮﺳﻢ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‪.‬‬
‫‪685‬‬
‫ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺷﺎﺣﻨﺎت ﻧﻘﻞ اﻟﻔﺤﻢ‪:‬‬
‫ﻟﺪﯾﻨﺎ ‪ 6‬ﺷﺎﺣﻨﺎت ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻟﻨﻘﻞ اﻟﻔﺤﻢ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻨﺠﻢ اﻟﻰ ﻣﺤﻄﺔ اﻟﻘﻄﺎرات‪ .‬اﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻰ ﯾﻌﻄﻲ ﻣﺨﻄﻂ‬
‫ﻟﺬﻟﻚ‪.‬‬
‫‪Station‬‬
‫‪text‬‬
‫‪Loading‬‬
‫‪text‬‬
‫‪Scale‬‬
‫‪Weighing‬‬
‫‪text‬‬
‫‪Queue‬‬
‫‪Loader Queue‬‬
‫‪text‬‬
‫ﻛﻞ ﺷﺎﺣﻨﺔ ﺗﺤﻤﻞ ﻣﻦ رﺻﯿﻒ واﺣﺪ ﻣﻦ اﺣﺪ رﺻﯿﻔﯿﻦ وﺑﻌﺪ اﻟﺘﺤﻤﯿﻞ ﺗﺘﺤﺮك اﻟﺸﺎﺣﻨﺔ إﻟﻰ رﺻﯿﻒ‬
‫وزن ﻟﻜﻲ ﺗﻮزن‪ ،‬زﻣﻦ اﻟﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ارﺻﻔﺔ اﻟﺸﺤﻦ ﻟﻠﻤﯿﺰان ﺗﺴﺘﻐﺮق ‪ 2 ± 1‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﻌﺪ اﻟﻮزن‬
‫ﺗﺘﺤﺮك اﻟﺸﺎﺣﻨﺔ اﻟﻰ ﻣﺤﻄﺔ اﻟﻘﻄﺎرات وﺗﻔﺮغ ﺷﺤﻨﺘﮭﺎ وﺗﻌﻮد اﻟﻰ ارﺻﻔﺔ اﻟﺸﺤﻦ ﻣﺮة ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﻮزﯾﻌﺎت اوﻗﺎت اﻟﺸﺤﻦ واوﻗﺎت اﻟﻮزن وزﻣﻦ اﻟﺬھﺎب واﻟﻌﻮدة ﻣﻦ واﻟﻰ ﻣﺤﻄﺔ اﻟﻘﻄﺎرات ﻣﻌﻄﺎة‬
‫ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺪاول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬

‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬
‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬
‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬

‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬
‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬
‫‪686‬‬
‫‪40‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪60‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬
‫‪80‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬
‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬

‫اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﺗﻘﺪﯾﺮ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ارﺻﻔﺔ اﻟﺸﺤﻦ ورﺻﯿﻒ اﻟﻮزن وﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ‬
‫طﺎﺑﻮر‪.‬‬
‫‪ -4‬ﺣﺎﻛﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﯾﺪوﯾﺎ ﻟـ ‪ 5‬رﺣﻼت ﻟﻜﻞ ﺷﺎﺣﻨﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -5‬ﻧﻤﺬج اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﺑﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪ GPSS‬ﻟـ ‪ 100‬رﺣﻠﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺷﺎﺣﻨﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -6‬ﻛﺮر اﻟﻔﻘﺮة ‪ 2‬ﺑﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪. ARENA‬‬
‫‪ -4‬اﻟﺤﻞ اﻟﺼﺤﯿﺢ ﯾﺴﺘﺤﻖ ‪ 30‬ﻋﻼﻣﺔ ﻣﻦ أﻋﻤﺎل اﻟﻔﺼﻞ‪ 10 ) .‬ﻋﻼﻣﺎت ﻟﻜﻞ ﻓﻘﺮة(‬
‫‪ -5‬آﺧﺮ ﻣﻮﻋﺪ ﻟﺘﺴﻠﯿﻢ اﻟﺤﻞ ‪ 10‬رﻣﻀﺎن ‪ 1422‬ھـ اﻟﻤﻮاﻓﻖ ‪ 25‬ﻓﺒﺮاﯾﺮ ‪ 2001‬م‪.‬‬
‫‪ -6‬اﻟﻤﺸﺎرﻛﺔ اﻟﺠﻤﺎﻋﯿﺔ ﺗﺸﺠﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻻﯾﺰﯾﺪ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻤﺸﺎرﻛﯿﻦ ﻋﻦ ‪. 2‬‬
‫د‪ .‬ﻋﺪﻧﺎن ﻣﺎﺟﺪ ﺑﺮي‬
‫‪687‬‬
‫ب( أوﺻﻒ أﻓﻀﻞ طﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﻟﺪراﺳﺔ اﻷﻧﻈﻤﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻣﻊ ذﻛﺮ ﺣﺎﻻت اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ‪ System states‬و‬
‫اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت ‪ Entities‬و ﺻﻔﺎت اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت ‪ Attributes‬و أﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ‪Activities‬‬
‫‪ (3‬ﻗﺴﻢ طﻮارئ ﺑﺄﺣﺪ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺸﻔﯿﺎت‬ ‫‪ (1‬ﻗﺴﻢ ﺻﻐﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺼﻨﻊ ‪ (2‬ﺗﻘﺎطﻊ طﺮﯾﻘﯿﻦ‬
‫ب( ﻣﺎ اﻟﻤﻘﺼﻮد ﺑﻄﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة اﻷﺣﺪاث اﻟﻤﻨﻔﺼﻠﺔ ‪Discrete-event Simulation Method‬‬
‫ﻣﻊ ذﻛﺮ اﻣﺜﻠﺔ‬
‫أ( أﺷﺮح ﺑﺈﯾﺠﺎز ﻣﻊ إﻋﻄﺎء ﻣﺜﺎل ﻋﻤﻞ ﻗﻮاﻟﺐ ‪ GPSS‬اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪1) GENERATE‬‬ ‫‪2) ADVANCE 3) ASSIGN 4) TERMINATE‬‬
‫‪5) TRANSFER‬‬ ‫‪6) TEST‬‬
‫ب( ﻣﺎ اﻟﻔﺮق ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ Facility‬و ‪ Storage‬وﻛﯿﻒ ﺗﺒﺮﻣﺞ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﮭﺎ ﺑﻠﻐﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪ GPSS‬ﻣﻊ إﻋﻄﺎء‬
‫أﻣﺜﻠﺔ‬
‫ﺗﺸﻐﻞ ﺷﺮﻛﺔ ﺗﺄﺟﯿﺮ ﺳﯿﺎرات ﺣﺪﯾﺜﺔ اﻹﻧﺸﺎء ﺳﯿﺎرة واﺣﺪة ﻓﻲ اﻟﻔﺘﺮة ‪ 9:00‬ﺻﺒﺎﺣﺎ وﺣﺘﻰ ‪5:00‬‬
‫ﻋﺼﺮا‪ .‬ﯾﻔﻜﺮ ﺻﺎﺣﺐ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻓﻲ إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺳﯿﺎرة ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺔ وﻟﻜﻦ ﺑﻌﺪ دراﺳﺔ ﻓﯿﻤﺎ اذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ اﻟﺤﺎﺟﺔ‬
‫ﺗﺘﻄﻠﺐ ذﻟﻚ‪ .‬اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﯿﺎرة اﺟﺮة ﺣﺴﺐ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻌﺔ ﻟﺪى اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ھﻲ‪:‬‬
‫)‪Time between calls (Minutes‬‬ ‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪25‬‬ ‫‪30‬‬ ‫‪35‬‬
‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪0.14‬‬ ‫‪0.22‬‬ ‫‪0.43‬‬ ‫‪0.17‬‬ ‫‪0.04‬‬
‫وﺗﻮزﯾﻊ وﻗﺖ إﻛﻤﺎل ﺧﺪﻣﺔ )ﺗﻮﺻﯿﻞ اﻟﺰﺑﻮن( ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫)‪Service Time (Minutes‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪25‬‬ ‫‪35‬‬ ‫‪45‬‬
‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪0.12‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬ ‫‪0.43‬‬ ‫‪0.06‬‬ ‫‪0.04‬‬
‫ﺣﺎﻛﻲ ﻧﻈﺎم اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻟﻤﺪة ‪ 100‬ﯾﻮم ﻟﻜﻲ ﺗﺴﺎﻋﺪ ﺻﺎﺣﺐ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻹﺗﺨﺎذ ﻗﺮاره ﻓﯿﻤﺎ إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ھﻨﺎك‬
‫ﺣﺎﺟﺔ ﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺳﯿﺎرة ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ت( ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻟﻐﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪GPSS‬‬
‫ث( وﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ﻟﻐﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة اﻟﺘﺼﻮﯾﺮﯾﺔ ‪ARENA‬‬
‫‪688‬‬
‫إﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻧﻤﻮذﺟﯿﺔ ﻟﻺﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻨﮭﺎﺋﻲ ﻟﻠﻔﺼﻞ اﻷول ‪ 1423/1422‬ھـ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺎدة ‪ 342‬ﺑﺤﺚ )طﺮق ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪(2‬‬

‫أ(‬
‫‪ (5‬ﻗﺴﻢ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺼﻨﻊ‪ :‬ﺑﺪون اﻟﻨﻈﺮ إﻟﻰ اﻟﻤﻨﺘﺞ وطﺒﯿﻌﺔ اﻟﺘﺼﻨﯿﻊ ﻓﺒﺸﻜﻞ ﻋﺎم ھﻨﺎك ﻗﻄﻊ ﺗﺼﻨﻊ‬
‫ﺗﻤﺮ ﺑﻤﺎ ﯾﺴﻤﻰ ﺑﺨﻂ إﻧﺘﺎج وﯾﺘﻢ ﺗﺠﻤﯿﻌﮭﺎ ﻟﻠﺤﺼﻮل ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﻨﺘﺞ اﻟﻨﮭﺎﺋﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﺣﺎﻻت اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪ :‬ﻟﺤﻈﺔ وﺻﻮل ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﻟﺨﻂ اﻹﻧﺘﺎج‪ ،‬ﻟﺤﻈﺔ إﻧﺘﮭﺎء ﺗﺠﻤﯿﻊ ﻗﻄﻌﺔ اﻟﺦ‬
‫اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت‪ :‬اﻟﻘﻄﻊ‬
‫ﺻﻔﺎت اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت‪ :‬زﻣﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل‪ ،‬زﻣﻦ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ )زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﺠﻤﯿﻊ(‬
‫أﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪ :‬أوﻗﺎت اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ) ﻛﻞ ﻗﻄﻌﺔ ﺗﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ زﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻟﻠﻘﻄﻌﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ(‬
‫‪ (6‬ﺗﻘﺎطﻊ طﺮﯾﻘﯿﻦ‪ :‬وﯾﺘﻤﯿﺰ ﺑﻤﺮور ﺣﺎﻓﻼت ﻓﻲ ﺟﻤﯿﻊ اﻹﺗﺠﺎھﺎت ﺗﺘﺤﻜﻢ ﺑﮭﺎ إﺷﺎرات ﻣﺮور‪:‬‬
‫ﺣﺎﻻت اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪ :‬ﻟﺤﻈﺔ وﺻﻮل ﺣﺎﻓﻠﺔ اﻟﻰ اﻟﺘﻘﺎطﻊ‪ ،‬ﻟﺤﻈﺔ ﺗﻐﯿﺮ إﺷﺎرة اﻟﻤﺮور‬
‫اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت‪ :‬اﻟﺤﺎﻓﻼت‬
‫ﺻﻔﺎت اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت‪ :‬زﻣﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل‬
‫أﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪ :‬ﻋﺪد اﻟﺤﺎﻓﻼت اﻟﻤﻨﺘﻈﺮة ﻋﻨﺪ اﻟﺘﻘﺎطﻊ )وھﺬا ﯾﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺤﺎﻓﻼت اﻟﺘﻲ ﻓﻲ آﺧﺮ‬
‫اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر إﻣﺎ ﺗﻤﺮ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻓﺘﺢ اﻹﺷﺎرة أو ﺗﻘﻔﻞ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ اﻹﺷﺎرة ﻗﺒﻞ اﻟﻌﺒﻮر(‬
‫‪ (7‬ﻗﺴﻢ طﻮارئ ﺑﻤﺴﺘﺸﻔﻰ‪ :‬اﻟﻤﺼﺎﺑﯿﻦ ﻓﻲ ﺣﻮادث او ﻏﯿﺮھﺎ ﯾﺼﻠﻮا إﻟﻰ ﻗﺴﻢ اﻟﺤﻮادث ﻟﺘﻠﻘﻲ‬
‫اﻟﻌﻼج‬
‫‪ (8‬ﺣﺎﻻت اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪ :‬ﻟﺤﻈﺔ وﺻﻮل اﻟﻤﺼﺎب‪ ،‬ﻟﺤﻈﺔ إﻧﺘﮭﺎء اﻟﻌﻼج‬
‫اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت‪ :‬اﻟﻤﺼﺎﺑﯿﻦ‬
‫ﺻﻔﺎت اﻟﻜﺎﺋﻨﺎت‪ :‬زﻣﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل‪ ،‬زﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻼج‬
‫أﻧﺸﻄﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ‪ :‬وﻗﺖ اﻧﺘﻈﺎر اﻟﻌﻼج ) ﻛﻞ ﻣﺼﺎب ﯾﺆﺛﺮ ﻋﻠﻰ زﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻟﻠﻤﺼﺎب اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ(‬
‫ب( طﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة اﻷﺣﺪاث اﻟﻤﻨﻔﺼﻠﺔ‪ :‬ﻓﻲ ھﺬه اﻟﻄﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﺗﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﺣﺎﻻت اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻋﻨﺪ ﻧﻘﺎط زﻣﻨﯿﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻨﻔﺼﻠﺔ )أي ان اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ﻣﺘﻘﻄﻊ ‪ ( Discrete‬واﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺤﺪث ﻓﯿﮭﺎ ﺣﺪث‪ .‬ﻣﺜﺎل ذﻟﻚ طﺎﺑﻮر ﺧﺪﻣﺔ‬
‫ﺑﺨﺎدم واﺣﺪ إذ ﯾﺼﻞ اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﻋﻨﺪ أزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﻨﻔﺼﻠﺔ ﺗﺘﺒﻊ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺔ ﺑﻮاﺳﻮن‪ .‬وﺻﻮل اﻟﺤﺎﻓﻼت إﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺗﻘﺎطﻊ طﺮﯾﻘﯿﻦ أﻟﺦ‪.‬‬
‫)أ(‬
‫‪(1) GENERATE A,B,C,D,E‬‬
‫‪A - Mean inter generation time.‬‬
‫‪B - Inter generation time half-range or Function Modifier.‬‬
‫‪C - Start delay time. Time increment for the first Transaction.‬‬
‫‪D - Creation limit.‬‬
‫‪E - Priority level.‬‬
‫‪Example: GENERATE 0.1‬‬
‫‪689‬‬
(2) ADVANCE A,B
Future Events Chain ‫ ﻋﻠﻲ ﻗﺎﺋﻣﺔ اﻷﺣداث اﻟﻣﺳﺗﻘﺑﻠﯾﺔ‬Transaction ‫ﯾﺿﻊ ﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل‬
A - The mean time increment.
B - The time half-range or, if a function, the function modifier.
Example: ADVANCE 101.6,50.3
(3) ASSIGN A,B,C
Transaction Parameter ‫ﯾﻌدل ﻣﻌﻠم اﻟﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل‬
A - Parameter number of the Active Transaction.
B - Value.
C - Function number.
Example: ASSIGN 2000,150.6
(4) TERMINATE A
A - Termination Count decrement. Default is 0.
Example: TERMINATE 1
(5) TRANSFER A,B,C,D
A - Transfer Block mode.
B - Block number or location.
C - Block number or location.
D - Block number increment for ALL Mode.
Examples:
(a) Unconditional Mode
TRANSFER ,New_Place
(b) Fractional Mode
(c) Both Mode
690
(d) All Mode
(e) Pick Mode
(f) Function Mode
TRANSFER FN,Func1,5
(g) Parameter Mode
(h) Subroutine Mode
(i) Simultaneous Mode
(6) TEST O A,B,C
‫ وﻋدل إﻧﺳﯾﺎب اﻟﻣﺗﻌﺎﻣل‬arithmetic condition ‫اﺧﺗﺑر اﻟﺷرط اﻟﺣﺳﺎﺑﻲ‬
A - Test value.
B - Reference value.
C - Destination Block number.
Example: TEST G C1,70000
(‫)ب‬
‫ )ﺗﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ( ﺗﺴﺘﻮﻋﺐ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ واﺣﺪ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻋﻨﺪ أي وﻗﺖ ﻣﻦ اﻷوﻗﺎت و ﻟﺘﻤﺜﯿﻞ اﻟﺘﺴﮭﯿﻠﺔ‬Facility
RELEASE ‫ و‬SEIZE ‫ﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺒﯿﻦ‬
:‫ﻣﺜﺎل‬
GPSS BLOCKS
SEIZE Facility
GPSS BLOCKS
RELEASE Facility
GPSS BLOCKS
691
‫ وﻟﺘﻤﺜﯿﻞ‬STORAGE ‫ )ﻣﺨﺰن( ﯾﺴﺘﻮﻋﺐ اﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺘﻌﺎﻣﻞ واﺣﺪ وﯾﺤﺪد ﻟﮫ ﺳﻌﺔ ﺑﺎﻷﻣﺮ‬Storage
LEAVE ‫ و‬ENTER ‫اﻟﻤﺨﺰن ﺑﻌﺪ ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ ﺳﻌﺘﺔ ﯾﺴﺘﺨﺪم اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺒﯿﻦ‬
:‫ﻣﺜﺎل‬
GPSS COMMANDS
SL STORAGE Capacity
GPSS COMMANDS
GPSS BLOCKS
ENTER SL
GPSS BLOCKS
LEAVE SL
GPSS BLOCKS
calls FUNCTION RN1,D5
0.14,15/0.36,20/0.79,25/0.96,30/1.0,35
sertime FUNCTION RN1,D5
0.12,5/0.47,15/0.9,25/0.96,35/1.0,45
callwait TABLE M1,10,10,20

*
GENERATE FN$calls
QUEUE cabq
SEIZE cab
DEPART cabq
ADVANCE FN$sertime
RELEASE cab
TABULATE callwait
TERMINATE 1
Sunday, January 13, 2002 00:06:22

0.000 2455.000 8 1 0
NAME VALUE
CAB 10006.000
CABQ 10005.000
CALLS 10000.000
CALLWAIT 10004.000
SERTIME 10002.000

1 GENERATE 101 0 0
2 QUEUE 101 0 0
3 SEIZE 101 1 0
4 DEPART 100 0 0
5 ADVANCE 100 0 0
6 RELEASE 100 0 0
7 TABULATE 100 0 0
8 TERMINATE 100 0 0
CAB 101 0.827 20.099 1 101 0 0 0 0
692
QUEUE MAX CONT. ENTRY ENTRY(0) AVE.CONT. AVE.TIME AVE.(-0) RETRY
CABQ 3 1 101 60 0.261 6.337 15.610 0

CALLWAIT 26.650 13.410 0
_ - 10.000 7 7.00
10.000 - 20.000 27 34.00
20.000 - 30.000 39 73.00
30.000 - 40.000 13 86.00
40.000 - 50.000 9 95.00
50.000 - 60.000 3 98.00
60.000 - 70.000 2 100.00
CEC XN PRI M1 ASSEM CURRENT NEXT PARAMETER VALUE

101 0 2450.000 101 3 4
FEC XN PRI BDT ASSEM CURRENT NEXT PARAMETER VALUE

102 0 2475.000 102 0 1
‫ ﻣﻦ ﺟﺪول اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻧﺠﺪ أن زﻣﻦ‬.‫ وھﻲ ﻋﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻧﻮﻋﺎ ﻣﺎ‬% 82.7 ‫ﻧﻼﺣﻆ أن ﻓﻌﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﺴﯿﺎرة ھﻲ‬
‫ دﻗﺎﺋﻖ وھﻮ ﻋﺎﻟﻲ ﺟﺪا ﻛﻤﺎ‬26.65 ‫ دﻗﯿﻘﺔ وﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ‬70 ‫اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻓﻲ اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ﻟﻠﺴﯿﺎرة ﯾﺼﻞ ﺣﺘﻰ‬
:‫ھﻮ ﻣﻮﺿﺢ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺪرج اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
ARENA ‫)ب( ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام‬
693
Project: Taxi Cab Problem Run execution date : 1/12/2001
Analyst: Model revision date: 1/12/2001
TALLY VARIABLES
_______________________________________________________________________________
finish_Ta 25.750 (Insuf) 22.000 27.000 4
cab_R_Q Queue Time 1.0000 (Insuf) .00000 5.0000 5
694
_______________________________________________________________________________
# in cab_R_Q .05000 (Insuf) .00000 1.0000 .00000
cab_R Busy .93000 (Insuf) .00000 1.0000 1.0000
cab_R Available 1.0000 (Insuf) 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000
COUNTERS
_________________________________________
finish_C 4 Infinite
%93 ‫ دﻗﯿﻘﺔ وﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﯿﺎرة‬25.75 ‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ ﻧﺠﺪ أن ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر‬
‫ ﻗﺪ ﯾﺤﺘﺎج ﺻﺎﺣﺐ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺳﯿﺎرة اﺧﺮى ﺣﺘﻰ ﻻﯾﻔﻘﺪ اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﺬﯾﻦ ﻟﮭﻢ ازﻣﺎن إﻧﺘﻈﺎر‬:‫اﻟﻘﺮار‬
.‫طﻮﯾﻠﺔ‬
SIMAN ‫اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ ﺑﻠﻐﺔ‬
42$ CREATE, 1:DISC( 0.14,15,0.36,20,0.79,25,0.96,30,1.0,35 );
3$ STATION, calls;
51$ TRACE, -1,"-Arrived to system at station calls\n":;
695
27$ DELAY: 0.;
56$ TRACE, -1,"-Transferred to station cab\n":;
29$ ROUTE: 2,cab;
0$ STATION, cab;
158$ TRACE, -1,"-Arrived to station cab\n":;
121$ DELAY: 0.;
165$ TRACE, -1,"-Waiting for resource cab_R\n":;
82$ QUEUE, cab_R_Q:MARK(QueueTime);
83$ SEIZE, 1:
cab_R,1;
192$ BRANCH, 1:
If,RTYP(cab_R).eq.2,193$,Yes:
If,RTYP(cab_R).eq.1,95$,Yes;
193$ MOVE: cab_R,cab;
95$ TALLY: cab_R_Q Queue Time,INT(QueueTime),1;
202$ DELAY: 0.0;
TRACE, -1,"-Delay for processing time DISC(

0.12,5,0.47,15,0.9,25,0.96,35,1.0,45 )\n":;
84$ DELAY: DISC( 0.12,5,0.47,15,0.9,25,0.96,35,1.0,45 );
85$ RELEASE: cab_R,1;
149$ DELAY: 0.;
171$ TRACE, -1,"-Transferred to station finish\n":;
89$ ROUTE: 0.,finish;
696
2$ STATION, finish;
233$ TRACE, -1,"-Arrived to station finish\n":;
203$ DELAY: 0.;
225$ COUNT: finish_C,1;
230$ TALLY: finish_Ta,Interval(QueueTime),1;
232$ DISPOSE;
697
‫ﻛﻠﻴﺔ اﻟﻌﻠﻮم‬
‫إﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻋﻤﺎل اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺼﯿﻔﻲ ‪ 1423/1422‬ھـ‬


‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.23‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.37‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.28‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.12‬‬

‫)ج( إﺳﺘﺨﺪم ‪ Excel‬ﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ ‪ 1000‬أزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ وﺻﻮل وﻛﻮن ﻣﺪرج ﺗﻜﺮاري ﻟﮭﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ت( ﻟﻸﻋﺪاد اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪0.488 0.226 0.221 0.043 0.055 0.743 0.081 0.685 0.364 0.012‬‬
‫‪0.372 0.543 0.483 0.050 0.628 0.966 0.750 0.697 0.764 0.040‬‬
‫‪0.404 0.549 0.203 0.990 0.155 0.079 0.789 0.462 0.795 0.190‬‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺎ إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻛﺎي أﺧﺘﺒﺮ اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪H 0 : Ri U 0,1‬‬
‫‪H1 : Ri U 0,1‬‬
‫ﺧﺬ ‪. α = 0.05‬‬
‫ب( إﺳﺘﺨﺪم إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻛﻮﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮروف – ﺳﻤﯿﺮﻧﻮف ‪ Kolmogorov-Smirnov‬ﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ ﻓﯿﻤﺎ‬
‫إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ‬
‫‪0.136 0.513 0.844 0.681 0.154 0.239 0.888 0.090 0.631 0.245‬‬
‫‪0.394 0.531 0.715 0.276 0.880‬‬
‫ﻟﮭﺎ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﻨﺘﻈﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻔﺘﺮة ]‪ .[0,1‬ﺧﺬ ‪ . α = 0.05‬ﻋﻠﻤﺎ ان ‪D0.05,15 = 0.338‬‬
‫إﺳﺘﺨﺪم ‪ Excel‬ﻓﻲ إﺟﺎﺑﺎﺗﻚ ﻛﻠﻤﺎ أﻣﻜﻦ ذﻟﻚ‪.‬‬
‫‪698‬‬
‫إﺟﺎﺑﺎت ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻋﻤﺎل اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺼﯿﻔﻲ ‪ 1423/1422‬ھـ‬
‫ﻧﻜﻮن ﺟﺪول ﻣﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﻌﻄﻰ‬
‫‪Time Between‬‬ ‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪Cumulative‬‬ ‫‪Random Number‬‬
‫)‪Arrivals (Minutes‬‬ ‫‪Probability‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.23‬‬ ‫‪0.23‬‬ ‫‪0.00 - 0.23‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.37‬‬ ‫‪0.60‬‬ ‫‪0.24 - 0.60‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.28‬‬ ‫‪0.88‬‬ ‫‪0.61 - 0.88‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.12‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬ ‫‪0.89 - 1.00‬‬
‫)أ( ﺗﻮﻟﯿﺪ أزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ وﺻﻮل ﻟﻌﺪد ‪ 50‬زﺑﻮﻧﺎ‬

‫‪Customer‬‬ ‫‪Random Number‬‬ ‫‪Time Between‬‬
‫‪Number‬‬ ‫)‪Arrivals (Minutes‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.625855‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.556581‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.945541‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.952997‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0.420310‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪0.936866‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪0.107296‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪0.114627‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪0.740750‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪0.187467‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪11‬‬ ‫‪0.755018‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪0.107803‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪13‬‬ ‫‪0.778554‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪14‬‬ ‫‪0.866096‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪0.504978‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪0.272018‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪17‬‬ ‫‪0.040550‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪18‬‬ ‫‪0.545166‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪19‬‬ ‫‪0.880144‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪0.653542‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪21‬‬ ‫‪0.950950‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪22‬‬ ‫‪0.007961‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪23‬‬ ‫‪0.059577‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪24‬‬ ‫‪0.212337‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪25‬‬ ‫‪0.959134‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪26‬‬ ‫‪0.958470‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬
‫‪27‬‬ ‫‪0.493049‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪28‬‬ ‫‪0.714507‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪29‬‬ ‫‪0.247049‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪30‬‬ ‫‪0.463654‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪31‬‬ ‫‪0.224657‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪32‬‬ ‫‪0.279055‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪33‬‬ ‫‪0.629967‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪699‬‬
34 0.846872 3
35 0.269160 2
36 0.047683 1
37 0.744348 3
38 0.251238 2
39 0.884811 3
40 0.946383 4
41 0.116568 1
42 0.591652 2
43 0.086417 1
44 0.007588 1
45 0.206254 1
46 0.114240 1
47 0.242383 2
48 0.221609 1
49 0.017977 1
50 0.281981 2
.‫)ب( ﺗﻜﻮﯾﻦ ﻣﺪرج ﺗﻜﺮاري ﻟﻸزﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﻤﻮﻟﺪة ﻓﻲ اﻟﻔﻘﺮة اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‬

Time Between Arrivals Frequency Relative Frequency
(Minutes)
1 17 0.34
2 13 0.26
3 13 0.26
4 7 0.14
‫وﻟﮫ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
15
Frequency
10
1 2 3 4
Time Between Arrivals (Minutes)
700
‫)ح( إﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪ Excel‬ﻟﺘﻮﻟﯿﺪ ‪ 1000‬أزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ وﺻﻮل وﺗﻜﻮﯾﻦ ﻣﺪرج ﺗﻜﺮاري ‪.‬‬
‫أدﺧﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺻﻔﺤﺔ ﻣﻦ ‪Excel‬‬
‫ﻓﻨﺤﺼﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‪:‬‬

‫ﻟﻸﻋﺪاد اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪0.488 0.226 0.221 0.043 0.055 0.743 0.081 0.685 0.364 0.012‬‬
‫‪0.372 0.543 0.483 0.050 0.628 0.966 0.750 0.697 0.764 0.040‬‬
‫‪0.404 0.549 0.203 0.990 0.155 0.079 0.789 0.462 0.795 0.190‬‬
‫ﺳﻮف ﻧﺨﺘﺒﺮ اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬

‫‪H 0 : Ri U 0,1‬‬
‫‪H1 : Ri U 0,1‬‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﯿﻦ إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻣﺮﺑﻊ ﻛﺎي‬
‫ﻧﻘﺴﻢ اﻟﻔﺘﺮة ]‪ [0,1‬إﻟﻰ ‪ 10‬ﻓﺘﺮات ﻣﺘﺴﺎوﯾﺔ وﻧﺴﺠﻞ ﻋﺪد اﻷﻋﺪاد اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻘﻊ ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ ﻓﺘﺮة‬
‫‪Interval‬‬ ‫‪Observed‬‬ ‫‪Expected‬‬ ‫‪Chi Sq.‬‬
‫‪0.00 - 0.10‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪5.33‬‬
‫‪0.11 - 0.20‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.33‬‬
‫‪701‬‬
‫‪0.21 - 0.30‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪0.31 - 0.40‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.33‬‬
‫‪0.41 - 0.50‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.33‬‬
‫‪0.51 - 0.60‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.33‬‬
‫‪0.61 - 0.70‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪0.71 - 0.80‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪1.33‬‬
‫‪0.81 - 0.90‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪0.91 - 1.00‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.33‬‬
‫‪11.33‬‬
‫ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻛﺎي ﺗﺮﺑﯿﻊ اﻟﻤﺤﺴﻮﺑﺔ ھﻲ ‪ 11.33‬وﺑﺪرﺟﺎت ﺣﺮﯾﺔ ‪9‬‬

‫ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻛﺎي ﺗﺮﺑﯿﻊ اﻟﺠﺪوﻟﯿﺔ ﻋﻨﺪ ‪ α = 0.05‬ودرﺟﺎت ﺣﺮﯾﺔ ‪ 9‬ھﻲ ‪ 16.9‬وھﻲ أﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺤﺴﻮﺑﺔ‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﻘﺮار‪ :‬ﻻﻧﺮﻓﺾ اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ اﻟﺼﻔﺮﯾﺔ‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﺤﻞ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪Excel‬‬
‫‪702‬‬
‫ب( ﺳﻮف ﻧﺴﺘﺨﺪم إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻛﻮﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮروف – ﺳﻤﯿﺮﻧﻮف ‪ Kolmogorov-Smirnov‬ﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر‬
‫اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ ﻓﯿﻤﺎ إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ‬
‫‪0.136 0.513 0.844 0.681 0.154 0.239 0.888 0.090 0.631 0.245‬‬
‫‪0.394 0.531 0.715 0.276 0.880‬‬
‫ﻟﮭﺎ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﻨﺘﻈﻢ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻔﺘﺮة ]‪.[0,1‬‬
‫أوﻻ ﻧﺮﺗﺐ اﻷﻋﺪاد ﺗﺼﺎﻋﺪﯾﺎ‬
‫‪0.09 0.136 0.154 0.239 0.245 0.276 0.394 0.513 0.531 0.631 0.681 0.715‬‬
‫‪0.844 0.88 0.888‬‬
‫ﻧﺤﺴﺐ اﻟﻜﻤﯿﺎت‬
‫‪i‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪D + = max  − R(i ) ‬‬
‫‪1≤ i ≤ N‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪N‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪i − 1‬‬
‫‪D − = max  R( i ) −‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪1≤i ≤ N‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪N ‬‬
‫ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‬
‫‪i‬‬ ‫)‪R(i‬‬ ‫‪i/N‬‬ ‫‪(i-1)/N‬‬ ‫)‪[i/N]-R(i‬‬ ‫]‪R(i)-[(i-1)/N‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.09‬‬ ‫‪0.066‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪-0.069‬‬ ‫‪+0.136‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.136‬‬ ‫‪0.133‬‬ ‫‪0.066‬‬ ‫‪-0.379‬‬ ‫‪+0.446‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.154‬‬ ‫‪0.199‬‬ ‫‪0.133‬‬ ‫‪-0.644‬‬ ‫‪+0.711‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.239‬‬ ‫‪0.266‬‬ ‫‪0.199‬‬ ‫‪-0.414‬‬ ‫‪+0.481‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0.245‬‬ ‫‪0.333‬‬ ‫‪0.266‬‬ ‫‪+0.18‬‬ ‫‪-0.1127‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪0.276‬‬ ‫‪0.399‬‬ ‫‪0.333‬‬ ‫‪+0.16‬‬ ‫‪-0.0943‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪0.394‬‬ ‫‪0.466‬‬ ‫‪0.399‬‬ ‫‪-0.421‬‬ ‫‪+0.488‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪0.513‬‬ ‫‪0.533‬‬ ‫‪0.466‬‬ ‫‪+0.44‬‬ ‫‪-0.3767‬‬
‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪0.531‬‬ ‫‪0.599‬‬ ‫‪0.533‬‬ ‫‪-0.031‬‬ ‫‪+0.098‬‬
‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪0.631‬‬ ‫‪0.666‬‬ ‫‪0.599‬‬ ‫‪+0.42‬‬ ‫‪-0.355‬‬
‫‪11‬‬ ‫‪0.681‬‬ ‫‪0.733‬‬ ‫‪0.666‬‬ ‫‪+0.34‬‬ ‫‪-0.2727‬‬
‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪0.715‬‬ ‫‪0.799‬‬ ‫‪0.733‬‬ ‫‪+0.27‬‬ ‫‪-0.2023‬‬
‫‪13‬‬ ‫‪0.844‬‬ ‫‪0.866‬‬ ‫‪0.799‬‬ ‫‪+0.15‬‬ ‫‪-0.085‬‬
‫‪14‬‬ ‫‪0.88‬‬ ‫‪0.933‬‬ ‫‪0.866‬‬ ‫‪+0.65‬‬ ‫‪-0.5907‬‬
‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪0.888‬‬ ‫‪0.999‬‬ ‫‪0.933‬‬ ‫‪+0.12‬‬ ‫‪-0.0533‬‬
‫‪D + = 0.657‬‬
‫‪D − = 0.711‬‬
‫‪D = 0.711‬‬
‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﺠﺪاول ﻧﺠﺪ أن ‪D0.05,15 = 0.338‬‬
‫اﻟﻘﺮار‪ :‬ﺑﻤﺎ ان اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺴﻮﺑﺔ أﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﺠﺪوﻟﺔ ﻓﺈﻧﻨﺎ ﻧﺮﻓﺾ اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ اﻟﺼﻔﺮﯾﺔ‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﺤﻞ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪Excel‬‬
‫‪703‬‬
704
‫اﻹﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻨﮭﺎﺋﻲ ﻟﻠﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺼﯿﻔﻲ ‪ 1423/1422‬ھـ‬

‫ﺟﻤﻌﺖ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟـ ‪ 50‬زﺑﻮﻧﺎ ﻓﻲ طﺎﺑﻮر أﺣﺪ اﻟﺒﻨﻮك‪.‬‬
‫أزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل‪:‬‬
‫‪IAT‬‬
‫‪4.8‬‬ ‫‪3.3‬‬ ‫‪2.8‬‬ ‫‪3.8‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪6.0‬‬ ‫‪2.0‬‬
‫‪16.5‬‬ ‫‪1.4‬‬ ‫‪2.5‬‬ ‫‪4.0‬‬ ‫‪14.3‬‬ ‫‪1.6‬‬ ‫‪5.0‬‬ ‫‪2.9‬‬ ‫‪11.9‬‬ ‫‪1.5‬‬
‫‪7.1‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪3.1‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪6.4‬‬ ‫‪2.4‬‬ ‫‪3.2‬‬ ‫‪7.4‬‬ ‫‪11.6‬‬ ‫‪5.1‬‬
‫‪8.5‬‬ ‫‪1.5‬‬ ‫‪4.1‬‬ ‫‪9.6‬‬ ‫‪10.0‬‬ ‫‪2.7‬‬ ‫‪3.5‬‬ ‫‪3.2‬‬ ‫‪9.2‬‬ ‫‪2.6‬‬
‫‪5.5‬‬ ‫‪10.8‬‬ ‫‪4.8‬‬ ‫‪6.1‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪1.6‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪15.5‬‬ ‫‪3.8‬‬ ‫‪8.7‬‬
‫وأزﻣﻨﺔ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪ST‬‬
‫‪5.5‬‬ ‫‪5.4‬‬ ‫‪2.8‬‬ ‫‪2.7‬‬ ‫‪5.6‬‬ ‫‪7.1‬‬ ‫‪4.0‬‬ ‫‪5.0‬‬ ‫‪3.3‬‬ ‫‪4.1‬‬ ‫‪4.5‬‬ ‫‪1.2‬‬
‫‪3.4‬‬ ‫‪5.3‬‬ ‫‪5.2‬‬ ‫‪6.8‬‬ ‫‪6.2‬‬ ‫‪8.1‬‬ ‫‪4.8‬‬ ‫‪5.8‬‬ ‫‪6.8‬‬ ‫‪4.9‬‬ ‫‪6.5‬‬ ‫‪6.8‬‬
‫‪7.7‬‬ ‫‪4.6‬‬ ‫‪5.1‬‬ ‫‪5.3‬‬ ‫‪4.2‬‬ ‫‪4.6‬‬ ‫‪3.2‬‬ ‫‪5.6‬‬ ‫‪2.6‬‬ ‫‪7.5‬‬ ‫‪4.1‬‬ ‫‪5.3‬‬
‫‪7.0‬‬ ‫‪5.4‬‬ ‫‪4.6‬‬ ‫‪6.0‬‬ ‫‪4.3‬‬ ‫‪5.0‬‬ ‫‪4.4‬‬ ‫‪6.7‬‬ ‫‪9.9‬‬ ‫‪3.7‬‬ ‫‪4.4‬‬ ‫‪5.5‬‬
‫‪3.6‬‬ ‫‪5.9‬‬
‫‪ -1‬أوﺟﺪ داﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﻲ )اﻟﻌﯿﻨﻲ( ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ أزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل وأزﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺎ أزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل واﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ اﻟﻤﻌﻄﺎة‪ ،‬ﺣﺎﻛﻲ ﯾﺪوﯾﺎ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم وأوﺟﺪ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﺨﺎدم‬
‫وﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻟﻤﻦ اﻧﺘﻈﺮ‪.‬‬
‫‪705‬‬
‫ﻣﻄﻌﻢ ﯾﻘﻮم ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻠﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﻄﻠﺒﺎت ﻓﯿﮫ ﺧﺎدم واﺣﺪ ﻷﺧﺬ وﺗﻮﺻﯿﻞ اﻟﻄﻠﺒﺎت ﻟﻠﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‪ .‬ﯾﺼﻞ اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ إﻟﻰ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻄﻌﻢ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ازﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ وﺻﻮل وﺗﺘﻢ ﺧﺪﻣﺘﮭﻢ طﺒﻘﺎ ﻟﻠﺘﻮزﯾﻌﺎت ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺪاول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫ﺟﺪاول ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ أزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل واﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪IAT‬‬
‫)‪(Minutes‬‬ ‫‪Probability‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.40‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬
‫‪Service Time‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬
‫‪706‬‬
‫ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪ Excel‬ﺣﺎﻛﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﺣﺘﻰ إﻧﮭﺎء ﺧﺪﻣﺔ ‪ 100‬زﺑﻮن وﻛﺮر اﻟﻤﺤﻜﺎة ‪ 31‬ﻣﺮة‬
‫وأﺧﺘﺒﺮ اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺎت اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪H 0 : Server Utilization = 0.75‬‬
‫‪H1 : Server Utilization ≠ 0.75‬‬
‫ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ‪ X‬ﻟﮫ داﻟﺔ ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ إﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬
‫‪ 2 x, 0 ≤ x ≤ 1‬‬
‫‪f ( x) = ‬‬
‫‪ 0, otherwise‬‬
‫‪ -1‬وﻟﺪ ‪ 50‬ﻣﺸﺎھﺪة ﻣﻦ ھﺬا اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬أﺧﺘﺒﺮ اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻟﺪة ﻟﺤﺴﻦ اﻟﺘﻄﺎﺑﻖ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ‪ .K-S Test‬ﺧﺬ ‪ . α = 0.05‬ﻋﻠﻤﺎ‬
‫‪DN ,0.05 = 1.36‬‬ ‫ﺑﺄن ‪N‬‬
‫‪384‬‬
‫إﺟﺎﺑﺎت ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ ﻟﻺﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﻨﮭﺎﺋﻲ ﻟﻠﻔﺼﻞ اﻟﺼﯿﻔﻲ ‪ 1423/1422‬ھـ‬

‫‪-1‬‬
‫‪385‬‬
‫إذا داﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﻲ )اﻟﻌﯿﻨﻲ( ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻦ أزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل وأزﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ھﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪IAT‬‬ ‫‪CDF‬‬
‫‪−∞ < x ≤ 0‬‬ ‫‪0.00‬‬
‫‪0 < x ≤ 3.3‬‬ ‫‪0.04‬‬
‫‪3.3 < x ≤ 6.6‬‬ ‫‪0.48‬‬
‫‪6.6 < x ≤ 9.9‬‬ ‫‪0.74‬‬
‫‪9.9 < x ≤ 13.2‬‬ ‫‪0.86‬‬
‫‪13.2 < x ≤ 16.5‬‬ ‫‪0.94‬‬
‫∞ < ‪16.5 < x‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬
‫‪ST‬‬ ‫‪CDF‬‬
‫‪−∞ < x ≤ 1.2‬‬ ‫‪0.00‬‬
‫‪1.2 < x ≤ 2.94‬‬ ‫‪0.02‬‬
‫‪2.94 < x ≤ 4.68‬‬ ‫‪0.08‬‬
‫‪4.68 < x ≤ 6.42‬‬ ‫‪0.40‬‬
‫‪6.42 < x ≤ 8.16‬‬ ‫‪0.78‬‬
‫‪8.16 < x ≤ 9.9‬‬ ‫‪0.98‬‬
‫∞ < ‪9.9 < x‬‬ ‫‪1.00‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻟﻠﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة اﻟﯿﺪوﯾﺔ ﻧﻜﻮن اﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫ﻧﻜﻮن ﺟﺪول ﻟﻠﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪:‬‬
‫‪Customer‬‬ ‫‪IAT‬‬ ‫‪Arrival‬‬ ‫‪ST‬‬ ‫‪Service‬‬ ‫‪Service‬‬ ‫?‪Wait‬‬ ‫‪Wait‬‬
‫‪Number‬‬ ‫‪Time‬‬ ‫‪Begin‬‬ ‫‪Ends‬‬ ‫‪Time‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪4.8‬‬ ‫‪4.8‬‬ ‫‪5.5‬‬ ‫‪4.8‬‬ ‫‪10.3‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3.3‬‬ ‫‪8.1‬‬ ‫‪5.4‬‬ ‫‪10.3‬‬ ‫‪15.7‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2.2‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2.8‬‬ ‫‪10.9‬‬ ‫‪2.8‬‬ ‫‪15.7‬‬ ‫‪18.5‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪4.8‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪3.8‬‬ ‫‪14.7‬‬ ‫‪2.7‬‬ ‫‪18.5‬‬ ‫‪21.2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪3.8‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬ ‫‪15.1‬‬ ‫‪5.6‬‬ ‫‪21.2‬‬ ‫‪26.8‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪6.1‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪15.2‬‬ ‫‪7.1‬‬ ‫‪26.8‬‬ ‫‪33.9‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪11.6‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪15.4‬‬ ‫‪4.0‬‬ ‫‪33.9‬‬ ‫‪37.9‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪18.5‬‬
‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪15.4‬‬ ‫‪5.0‬‬ ‫‪37.9‬‬ ‫‪42.9‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪22.5‬‬
‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪6.0‬‬ ‫‪21.4‬‬ ‫‪3.3‬‬ ‫‪42.9‬‬ ‫‪46.2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪21.5‬‬
‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪2.0‬‬ ‫‪23.4‬‬ ‫‪4.1‬‬ ‫‪46.2‬‬ ‫‪50.3‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪22.8‬‬
‫‪11‬‬ ‫‪16.5‬‬ ‫‪39.9‬‬ ‫‪4.5‬‬ ‫‪50.3‬‬ ‫‪54.8‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪10.4‬‬
‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪1.4‬‬ ‫‪41.3‬‬ ‫‪1.2‬‬ ‫‪54.8‬‬ ‫‪56.0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪13.5‬‬
‫‪13‬‬ ‫‪2.5‬‬ ‫‪43.8‬‬ ‫‪3.4‬‬ ‫‪56.0‬‬ ‫‪59.4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪12.2‬‬
‫‪14‬‬ ‫‪4.0‬‬ ‫‪47.8‬‬ ‫‪5.3‬‬ ‫‪59.4‬‬ ‫‪64.7‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪11.6‬‬
‫‪386‬‬
‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪14.3‬‬ ‫‪62.1‬‬ ‫‪5.2‬‬ ‫‪64.7‬‬ ‫‪69.9‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2.6‬‬
‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪1.6‬‬ ‫‪63.7‬‬ ‫‪6.8‬‬ ‫‪69.9‬‬ ‫‪76.7‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪6.2‬‬
‫‪17‬‬ ‫‪5.0‬‬ ‫‪68.7‬‬ ‫‪6.2‬‬ ‫‪76.7‬‬ ‫‪82.9‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪8.0‬‬
‫‪18‬‬ ‫‪2.9‬‬ ‫‪71.6‬‬ ‫‪8.1‬‬ ‫‪82.9‬‬ ‫‪91.0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪11.3‬‬
‫‪19‬‬ ‫‪11.9‬‬ ‫‪83.5‬‬ ‫‪4.8‬‬ ‫‪91.0‬‬ ‫‪95.8‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪7.5‬‬
‫‪20‬‬ ‫‪1.5‬‬ ‫‪85.0‬‬ ‫‪5.8‬‬ ‫‪95.8‬‬ ‫‪101.6‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪10.8‬‬
‫‪21‬‬ ‫‪7.1‬‬ ‫‪92.1‬‬ ‫‪6.8‬‬ ‫‪101.6‬‬ ‫‪108.4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪9.5‬‬
‫‪22‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬ ‫‪92.3‬‬ ‫‪4.9‬‬ ‫‪108.4‬‬ ‫‪113.3‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪16.1‬‬
‫‪23‬‬ ‫‪3.1‬‬ ‫‪95.4‬‬ ‫‪6.5‬‬ ‫‪113.3‬‬ ‫‪119.8‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪17.9‬‬
‫‪24‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪95.7‬‬ ‫‪6.8‬‬ ‫‪119.8‬‬ ‫‪126.6‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪24.1‬‬
‫‪25‬‬ ‫‪6.4‬‬ ‫‪102.1‬‬ ‫‪7.7‬‬ ‫‪126.6‬‬ ‫‪134.3‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪24.5‬‬
‫‪26‬‬ ‫‪2.4‬‬ ‫‪104.5‬‬ ‫‪4.6‬‬ ‫‪134.3‬‬ ‫‪138.9‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪29.8‬‬
‫‪27‬‬ ‫‪3.2‬‬ ‫‪107.7‬‬ ‫‪5.1‬‬ ‫‪138.9‬‬ ‫‪144.0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪31.2‬‬
‫‪28‬‬ ‫‪7.4‬‬ ‫‪115.1‬‬ ‫‪5.3‬‬ ‫‪144.0‬‬ ‫‪149.3‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪28.9‬‬
‫‪28‬‬ ‫‪11.6‬‬ ‫‪126.7‬‬ ‫‪4.2‬‬ ‫‪149.3‬‬ ‫‪153.5‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪22.6‬‬
‫‪30‬‬ ‫‪5.1‬‬ ‫‪131.8‬‬ ‫‪4.6‬‬ ‫‪153.5‬‬ ‫‪158.1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪21.7‬‬
‫‪31‬‬ ‫‪8.5‬‬ ‫‪140.3‬‬ ‫‪3.2‬‬ ‫‪158.1‬‬ ‫‪161.3‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪17.8‬‬
‫‪32‬‬ ‫‪1.5‬‬ ‫‪141.8‬‬ ‫‪5.6‬‬ ‫‪161.3‬‬ ‫‪166.9‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪19.5‬‬
‫‪33‬‬ ‫‪4.1‬‬ ‫‪145.9‬‬ ‫‪2.6‬‬ ‫‪166.9‬‬ ‫‪169.5‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪21.0‬‬
‫‪34‬‬ ‫‪9.6‬‬ ‫‪155.5‬‬ ‫‪7.5‬‬ ‫‪169.5‬‬ ‫‪177.0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪14.0‬‬
‫‪35‬‬ ‫‪10.0‬‬ ‫‪165.5‬‬ ‫‪4.1‬‬ ‫‪177.0‬‬ ‫‪181.1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪11.5‬‬
‫‪36‬‬ ‫‪2.7‬‬ ‫‪168.2‬‬ ‫‪5.3‬‬ ‫‪181.1‬‬ ‫‪186.4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪12.9‬‬
‫‪37‬‬ ‫‪3.5‬‬ ‫‪171.7‬‬ ‫‪7.0‬‬ ‫‪186.4‬‬ ‫‪193.4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪14.7‬‬
‫‪38‬‬ ‫‪3.2‬‬ ‫‪174.9‬‬ ‫‪5.4‬‬ ‫‪193.4‬‬ ‫‪198.8‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪18.5‬‬
‫‪39‬‬ ‫‪9.2‬‬ ‫‪184.1‬‬ ‫‪4.6‬‬ ‫‪198.8‬‬ ‫‪203.4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪14.7‬‬
‫‪40‬‬ ‫‪2.6‬‬ ‫‪186.7‬‬ ‫‪6.0‬‬ ‫‪203.4‬‬ ‫‪209.4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪16.7‬‬
‫‪41‬‬ ‫‪5.5‬‬ ‫‪192.2‬‬ ‫‪4.3‬‬ ‫‪209.4‬‬ ‫‪213.7‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪17.2‬‬
‫‪42‬‬ ‫‪10.8‬‬ ‫‪203.0‬‬ ‫‪5.0‬‬ ‫‪213.7‬‬ ‫‪218.7‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪10.7‬‬
‫‪43‬‬ ‫‪4.8‬‬ ‫‪207.8‬‬ ‫‪4.4‬‬ ‫‪218.7‬‬ ‫‪223.1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪10.9‬‬
‫‪44‬‬ ‫‪6.1‬‬ ‫‪213.9‬‬ ‫‪6.7‬‬ ‫‪223.1‬‬ ‫‪229.8‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪9.2‬‬
‫‪45‬‬ ‫‪0.0‬‬ ‫‪213.9‬‬ ‫‪9.9‬‬ ‫‪229.8‬‬ ‫‪239.7‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪15.9‬‬
‫‪46‬‬ ‫‪1.6‬‬ ‫‪215.5‬‬ ‫‪3.7‬‬ ‫‪239.7‬‬ ‫‪243.4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪24.2‬‬
‫‪47‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬ ‫‪215.6‬‬ ‫‪4.4‬‬ ‫‪243.4‬‬ ‫‪247.8‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪27.8‬‬
‫‪48‬‬ ‫‪15.5‬‬ ‫‪231.1‬‬ ‫‪5.5‬‬ ‫‪247.8‬‬ ‫‪253.3‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪16.7‬‬
‫‪49‬‬ ‫‪3.8‬‬ ‫‪234.9‬‬ ‫‪3.6‬‬ ‫‪253.3‬‬ ‫‪256.9‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪18.4‬‬
‫‪50‬‬ ‫‪8.7‬‬ ‫‪243.6‬‬ ‫‪5.9‬‬ ‫‪256.9‬‬ ‫‪262.8‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪13.3‬‬
‫‪Totals‬‬ ‫‪258‬‬ ‫‪49‬‬ ‫‪759.8‬‬
‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﺠﺪول ﻧﺠﺪ‪:‬‬

‫‪258‬‬
‫= ‪0.982‬‬ ‫ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﺨﺎدم =‬
‫‪262.8‬‬
‫‪759.8‬‬
‫= ‪ 15.51‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻟﻤﻦ إﻧﺘﻈﺮوا =‬
‫‪49‬‬
‫‪387‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺻﻔﺤﺔ ﺟﺪﯾﺪة ﻣﻦ ‪ Excel‬أدﺧﻞ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﻛﻤﺎ ھﻮ ﻣﻮﺿﺢ‬
‫ﻓﺘﻈﮭﺮ اﻟﻨﺘﯿﺠﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪388‬‬
‫اﻟﻌﺎﻣﻮد اﻷﺧﯿﺮ )‪ (L‬ﯾﺤﻮى ‪ 31‬ﻗﯿﻤﺔ ﻟﻔﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﺨﺎدم وﺳﻮف ﻧﺨﺘﺒﺮ اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ‬
‫‪H 0 : Server Utilization = 0.75‬‬
‫‪H1 : Server Utilization ≠ 0.75‬‬
‫‪xUtil − 0.75‬‬
‫= ‪t0‬‬ ‫ﻧﻮﺟﺪ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ واﻹﻧﺤﺮاف اﻟﻤﻌﯿﺎري ﻟﻠﻔﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ وﻧﺤﺴﺐ اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﺔ‬
‫‪sUtil‬‬
‫ﻧﻼﺣﻆ أن ﻗﯿﻤﺔ اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺴﻮﺑﺔ أﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﺠﺪوﻟﺔ وﺑﮭﺬا ﻻﻧﺴﺘﻄﯿﻊ رﻓﺾ اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺼﻔﺮﯾﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪389‬‬
‫ﻻﺣﻆ أﯾﻀﺎ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺴﻮﺑﺔ ھﻲ ‪ 0.68288‬وھﻲ أﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ ‪. 0.05‬‬
‫‪390‬‬
‫ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ‪ X‬ﻟﮫ داﻟﺔ ﻛﺜﺎﻓﺔ إﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﯿﺔ‬
‫‪ 2 x, 0 ≤ x ≤ 1‬‬
‫‪f ( x) = ‬‬
‫‪ 0, otherwise‬‬
‫ﻧﻮﺟﺪ داﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺮاﻛﻤﻲ‬
‫‪x‬‬
‫∫ = )‪F ( x) = P ( X ≤ x‬‬ ‫‪f ( t ) dt‬‬
‫∞‪−‬‬
‫‪x‬‬
‫‪= ∫ 2t dt = x 2 , 0 ≤ x ≤ 1‬‬
‫∞‪−‬‬
‫أي‬
‫‪ 0,‬‬ ‫‪x<0‬‬
‫‪ 2‬‬
‫‪F ( x) = x , 0 ≤ x ≤ 1‬‬
‫‪ 1,‬‬ ‫‪x >1‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻧﻮﻟﺪ ‪ 50‬ﻣﺸﺎھﺪة ﻣﻦ ھﺬا اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻌﻼﻗﺔ‬

‫) ‪X i = F −1 ( Ri‬‬
‫ﺣﯿﺚ )‪ Ri U ( 0,1‬أي‬
‫‪X i = Ri‬‬
‫ﻧﻜﻮن ﺟﺪول ﻟﻠﻨﺘﺎﺋﺞ‪:‬‬
‫‪R‬‬ ‫‪X‬‬
‫‪0.714465‬‬ ‫‪0.845260‬‬
‫‪0.708959‬‬ ‫‪0.841997‬‬
‫‪0.267740‬‬ ‫‪0.517436‬‬
‫‪0.474856‬‬ ‫‪0.689098‬‬
‫‪0.005750‬‬ ‫‪0.075830‬‬
‫‪0.271049‬‬ ‫‪0.520623‬‬
‫‪0.736142‬‬ ‫‪0.857987‬‬
‫‪0.976983‬‬ ‫‪0.988425‬‬
‫‪0.269966‬‬ ‫‪0.519583‬‬
‫‪0.721422‬‬ ‫‪0.849366‬‬
‫‪0.174332‬‬ ‫‪0.417530‬‬
‫‪0.303994‬‬ ‫‪0.551357‬‬
‫‪0.530758‬‬ ‫‪0.728531‬‬
‫‪0.994646‬‬ ‫‪0.997320‬‬
‫‪0.648218‬‬ ‫‪0.805120‬‬
‫‪0.508599‬‬ ‫‪0.713161‬‬
‫‪0.841944‬‬ ‫‪0.917575‬‬
‫‪0.999339‬‬ ‫‪0.999670‬‬
‫‪0.160562‬‬ ‫‪0.400701‬‬
‫‪391‬‬
‫‪0.378975‬‬ ‫‪0.615609‬‬
‫‪0.699994‬‬ ‫‪0.836656‬‬
‫‪0.038948‬‬ ‫‪0.197353‬‬
‫‪0.257783‬‬ ‫‪0.507724‬‬
‫‪0.979658‬‬ ‫‪0.989777‬‬
‫‪0.931111‬‬ ‫‪0.964941‬‬
‫‪0.339948‬‬ ‫‪0.583050‬‬
‫‪0.220766‬‬ ‫‪0.469857‬‬
‫‪0.221735‬‬ ‫‪0.470888‬‬
‫‪0.646679‬‬ ‫‪0.804164‬‬
‫‪0.406209‬‬ ‫‪0.637345‬‬
‫‪0.183378‬‬ ‫‪0.428227‬‬
‫‪0.931081‬‬ ‫‪0.964925‬‬
‫‪0.360813‬‬ ‫‪0.600677‬‬
‫‪0.418293‬‬ ‫‪0.646756‬‬
‫‪0.022497‬‬ ‫‪0.149989‬‬
‫‪0.383389‬‬ ‫‪0.619184‬‬
‫‪0.863775‬‬ ‫‪0.929395‬‬
‫‪0.396413‬‬ ‫‪0.629613‬‬
‫‪0.363247‬‬ ‫‪0.602700‬‬
‫‪0.774759‬‬ ‫‪0.880204‬‬
‫‪0.944995‬‬ ‫‪0.972109‬‬
‫‪0.345821‬‬ ‫‪0.588065‬‬
‫‪0.543244‬‬ ‫‪0.737051‬‬
‫‪0.596568‬‬ ‫‪0.772378‬‬
‫‪0.559454‬‬ ‫‪0.747966‬‬
‫‪0.103366‬‬ ‫‪0.321506‬‬
‫‪0.879555‬‬ ‫‪0.937846‬‬
‫‪0.383400‬‬ ‫‪0.619193‬‬
‫‪0.531172‬‬ ‫‪0.728816‬‬
‫‪0.103973‬‬ ‫‪0.322449‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻧﺨﺘﺒﺮ اﻟﻤﺸﺎھﺪات اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻟﺪة ﻟﺤﺴﻦ اﻟﺘﻄﺎﺑﻖ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ‪ K-S Test‬ﻋﻨﺪ ‪α = 0.05‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺻﻔﺤﺔ ﺟﺪﯾﺪة ﻣﻦ ‪ Excel‬أدﺧﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪392‬‬
‫ﻧﻼﺣﻆ أن ‪ D < D50,0.05‬أي ﻻﻧﺮﻓﺾ اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ اﻟﺼﻔﺮﯾﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪393‬‬

‫ﻓﻲ ﻛﺘﺎب ﻣﻄﺒﻮع وﺟﺪ أن ﻋﺪد اﻷﺧﻄﺎء اﻟﻤﻄﺒﻌﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟـ ‪ 50‬ﺻﻔﺤﺔ اﻷوﻟﻰ ھﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫)أ( أوﺟﺪ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺠﺮﯾﺒﻲ )اﻟﻌﯿﻨﻲ( ﻟﻠﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪.‬‬

‫)ب( ﯾﺬﻛﺮ ﻓﻲ ﻛﺘﺐ اﻹﺣﺼﺎء أن اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﻲ " ﻋﺪد اﻷﺧﻄﺎء اﻟﻤﻄﺒﻌﯿﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺻﻔﺤﺔ ﻣﻄﺒﻮﻋﺔ"‬
‫ﻟﮫ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﺑﻮاﺳﻮن‪ .‬إﺧﺘﺒﺮ ھﺬه اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ أﺳﺎس أن ‪. λ = 1‬‬
‫)ج( ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪ EXCEL‬ﻋﺎﯾﻦ ‪ 50‬ﺻﻔﺤﺔ أﺧﺮى ﻣﻦ ھﺬا اﻟﻜﺘﺎب‪.‬‬
‫إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻣﺘﻌﺪد اﻹﺧﺘﯿﺎرات ﯾﺘﻜﻮن ﻣﻦ ‪ 10‬أﺳﺌﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛﻞ ﺳﺆال ﻟﺔ ‪ 4‬إﺟﺎﺑﺎت )‪ (A‬و )‪ (B‬و )‪ (C‬و )‪(D‬‬
‫واﺣﺪة ﻣﻨﮭﺎ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺻﺤﯿﺤﺔ‪ .‬ﻗﺎم طﺎﻟﺐ ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻋﺐ ﻟﻠﻤﺎدة ﺑﺈﺟﺎﺑﺔ اﻷﺳﺌﻠﺔ ﺑﺈﺧﺘﯿﺎر ﺳﺆال ﺑﺸﻜﻞ‬
‫ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﺑﺤﯿﺚ ﯾﻜﻮن إﺧﺘﯿﺎره ﻷي ﺳﺆال ﻟﮫ ﻧﻔﺲ اﻟﻔﺮﺻﺔ‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب‪:‬‬
‫)أ( ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺮض أن ﻛﻞ ﺳﺆال ﻋﻠﯿﮫ ﻋﻼﻣﺔ واﺣﺪة‪ ،‬وأن اﻟﻨﺠﺎح ﯾﻜﻮن ﻋﻠﻰ أﺳﺎس اﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ اﻟﺼﺤﯿﺤﺔ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ 5‬ﻣﻦ ‪ 10‬أﺳﺌﻠﺔ‪ .‬ﻗﺪر ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة اﻟﯿﺪوﯾﺔ إﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﻧﺠﺎح ھﺬا اﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺎ ‪20‬‬
‫ﺗﻜﺮارا‪ .‬ﻋﻠﻤﺎ أن اﻹﺟﺎﺑﺎت اﻟﺼﺤﯿﺤﺔ ھﻲ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫اﻟﺴﺆال‬
‫‪D‬‬ ‫‪B‬‬ ‫‪D‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬ ‫‪D‬‬ ‫‪B‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬ ‫‪B‬‬ ‫اﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ اﻟﺼﺤﯿﺤﺔ‬
‫)ب( ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪ EXCEL‬أﻋﺪ اﻟﻔﻘﺮة )أ( ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺎ ‪ 200‬ﺗﻜﺮار‪.‬‬

‫)ج( أﻋﺪ ﻓﻘﺮة )ب( إذا ﻛﺎن اﻟﻨﺠﺎح ﻋﻠﻰ أﺳﺎس اﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ اﻟﺼﺤﯿﺤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ 6‬ﻣﻦ ‪ 10‬أﺳﺌﻠﺔ‪.‬‬
‫)د( ھﺬه اﻟﻔﻘﺮة إﺧﺘﯿﺎرﯾﺔ ﻟﺰﯾﺎدة ﻋﻼﻣﺎﺗﻚ‪ :‬أوﺟﺪ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ اﻟﻨﻈﺮﯾﺔ ﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﻧﺠﺎح ھﺬا اﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ‪.‬‬
‫‪394‬‬

‫‪Daily Demand‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬

‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪0.33‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬ ‫‪0.12‬‬ ‫‪0.10‬‬
‫)‪Lead Time (Days‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬

‫‪Probability‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬
‫زﻣﻦ اﻟﺤﯿﺎة ‪ Lifetime‬ﺑﺎﻟﺴﻨﻮات ﻟﻘﻤﺮ ﺻﻨﺎﻋﻲ وﺿﻊ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺪار ﺣﻮل اﻷرض ﯾﺘﺒﻊ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪0.4e−0.4 x ,‬‬ ‫‪x≥0‬‬
‫‪f ( x) = ‬‬
‫ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪ MINITAB‬أو ‪ EXCEL‬وﻟﺪ ‪ 1000‬أزﻣﻨﺔ ﺣﯿﺎة وأﺟﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -4‬ﻣﺎھﻮ إﺣﺘﻤﺎل أن اﻟﻘﻤﺮ اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ ﻻﯾﺰال ﯾﻌﻤﻞ ﺑﻌﺪ ‪ 5‬ﺳﻨﻮات؟‬
‫‪ -5‬ﻣﺎھﻮ إﺣﺘﻤﺎل أن اﻟﻘﻤﺮ اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ ﯾﻌﻤﻞ ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 3‬و ‪ 6‬ﺳﻨﻮات ﺑﻌﺪ إطﻼﻗﮫ؟‬
‫‪ -6‬ﺣﻘﻖ ﻧﺘﺎﺋﺠﻚ ﺗﺤﻠﯿﻠﯿﺎ )اﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ھﺬه اﻟﻔﻘﺮة إﺧﺘﯿﺎرﯾﺎ(‪.‬‬
‫‪395‬‬
‫اﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﺘﻜﺮاري اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﯾﻤﺜﻞ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪات ﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ‪xi‬‬
‫‪xi‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬
‫‪Observed‬‬ ‫‪118‬‬ ‫‪274‬‬ ‫‪298‬‬ ‫‪169‬‬ ‫‪105‬‬ ‫‪25‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫أﺧﺘﺒﺮ اﻟﻔﺮﺿﯿﺔ اﻟﻘﺎﺋﻠﺔ ان ‪ xi‬ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﻲ ﻟﮫ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﺑﻮاﺳﻮن ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 2‬ﺧﺬ ‪. α = 0.05‬‬
‫‪396‬‬
‫ﻗﻄﻊ ﻣﺼﻨﻌﺔ ﺗﺼﻞ إﻟﻰ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ اﻟﺘﻐﻠﯿﻒ ﺑﺄزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ وﺻﻮل ﻟﮭﺎ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪Time Between Arrivals Probability‬‬

‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0.23‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.37‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.28‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.12‬‬
‫ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺎت اﻟﺘﻐﻠﯿﻒ ﺗﺴﺘﻐﺮق أزﻣﻨﺔ ﻟﮭﺎ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎوي ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 1‬و ‪ . 4‬ﺟﻤﯿﻊ اﻷوﻗﺎت ﺗﻘﺎس ﺑﺎﻟﺪﻗﺎﺋﻖ‪.‬‬
‫أ( أﺟﺮي ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﯾﺪوﯾﺔ ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم ﺣﺘﻰ اﻹﻧﺘﮭﺎء ﻣﻦ ﺗﻐﻠﯿﻒ ‪ 10‬ﻗﻄﻊ‪ .‬وﻗﺪر‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ أزﻣﻨﺔ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻓﻲ طﺎﺑﻮر اﻟﺘﻐﻠﯿﻒ ﻟﺠﻤﯿﻊ اﻟﻘﻄﻊ وﻟﻠﻘﻄﻊ اﻟﺘﻲ أﻧﺘﻈﺮت ﻓﻌﻼ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻐﻠﯿﻒ وھﻞ ﻧﺤﺘﺎج إﻟﻰ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﺗﻐﻠﯿﻒ اﺧﺮى‪ -3 .‬أﻗﺼﻰ طﻮل ﻟﻠﻄﺎﺑﻮر‪.‬‬
‫ب( ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪ EXCEL‬أﺟﺮى ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم ﺣﺘﻰ اﻹﻧﺘﮭﺎء ﻣﻦ ﺗﻐﻠﯿﻒ ‪ 100‬ﻗﻄﻌﺔ‪ .‬ﻗﺪر اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﻓﻲ ‪ 1‬و ‪ 2‬و ‪3‬‬
‫ﺑﺎﻟﻔﻘﺮة اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫أ( اﺧﺘﺒﺮ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻛﻮﻟﻤﻮﺟﻮروف‪-‬ﺳﻤﯿﺮﻧﻮف )‪:( K-S Test‬‬
‫‪0.0930‬‬ ‫‪0.0824‬‬ ‫‪0.9011‬‬ ‫‪0.0988‬‬ ‫‪0.9203‬‬ ‫‪0.3435‬‬ ‫‪0.0465‬‬

‫‪0.9542‬‬
‫‪0.0366‬‬ ‫‪0.0689‬‬ ‫‪0.2400‬‬ ‫‪0.5310‬‬ ‫‪0.3506‬‬ ‫‪0.6749‬‬ ‫‪0.7549‬‬
‫‪0.1155‬‬
‫‪0.2112‬‬ ‫‪0.5087‬‬ ‫‪0.3676‬‬ ‫‪0.7177‬‬ ‫‪0.3827‬‬
‫ب( ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺎ ‪ EXCEL‬اﺧﺘﺒﺮ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام إﺧﺘﺒﺎر اﻟﺠﺮي ﻷﺳﻔﻞ وأﻋﻠﻰ ‪Runs Up and‬‬
‫‪.Runs Down Test‬‬
‫ﻣﻼﺣﻈﺔ‪ :‬إذا ﻓﺮﺿﻨﺎ أن ‪ a‬ھﻮ اﻟﻌﺪد اﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻟﻠﺠﺮي ﻓﻲ ﻣﺘﺘﺎﺑﻌﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﺤﻘﯿﻘﯿﺔ ﻓﺈن ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ وﺗﺒﺎﯾﻦ‬
‫‪2N −1‬‬ ‫‪16 N − 29‬‬
‫= ‪ µ a‬ﺣﯿﺚ ‪ N‬ﺣﺠﻢ اﻟﻌﯿﻨﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﺈذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ ‪ N > 20‬ﻓﺈن ‪a‬‬ ‫= ‪, σ a2‬‬ ‫‪ a‬ﺗﻌﻄﻰ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻼﻗﺎت‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪90‬‬
‫ﯾﻜﻮن ﻟﮭﺎ ﺗﻘﺮﯾﺒﺎ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ) ‪. N ( µ a , σ a2‬‬
‫‪397‬‬
‫إﺧﺘﺒﺎر أﻋﻤﺎل اﻟﻔﺼﻞ اﻷول ‪ 1424/1423‬ھـ‬

‫ﻣﻄﻌﻢ ﯾﻘﻮم ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﻠﺒﯿﺔ اﻟﻄﻠﺒﺎت ﻓﯿﮫ ﺧﺎدم واﺣﺪ ﻷﺧﺬ وﺗﻮﺻﯿﻞ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﻟﻠﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‪ .‬ﯾﺼﻞ اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ إﻟﻰ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻄﻌﻢ ﺣﺴﺐ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ازﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪IAT‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.40‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.15‬‬
‫اﻟﺨﺎدم ﯾﺘﺒﻊ ﻧﻈﺎﻣﯿﻦ ﻟﻠﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﺣﺴﺐ طﻮل طﺎﺑﻮر اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫ﺟﺪول ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ أزﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ إذا ﻛﺎن طﻮل اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر أﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪:4‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.35‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬
‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬
‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪0.20‬‬
‫ﺟﺪول ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ أزﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ إذا ﻛﺎن طﻮل اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر أﻛﺒﺮ ﻣﻦ أو ﯾﺴﺎوي ‪:4‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.30‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.28‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.25‬‬
‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0.17‬‬
‫‪398‬‬
‫ﺣﺎﻛﻲ ﯾﺪوﯾﺎ ھﺬا اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﺣﺘﻰ إﻧﺘﮭﺎء ﺧﺪﻣﺔ ‪ 20‬زﺑﻮن‪ .‬وأوﺟﺪ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﺨﺎدم وأﻗﺼﻰ طﻮل ﻟﻠﻄﺎﺑﻮر‬
‫وﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر‪.‬‬
‫أﺳﺘﺨﺪم ‪ Excel‬ﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﺣﺘﻲ إﻧﺘﮭﺎء ‪ 200‬زﺑﻮن‪ .‬أوﺟﺪ ﻣﻘﺎﯾﯿﺲ اﻷداء ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم‪.‬‬
‫‪399‬‬


‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.23‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.37‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.28‬‬
‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪0.12‬‬

‫‪( χ 3,0.05‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫)اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻌﺔ ‪ .( E‬ﺧﺬ ‪= 7.81 ) . α = 0.05‬‬
‫‪0.25 0.01 0.93 0.70 0.66 0.74 0.79 0.47 0.68 0.18 0.88 0.07 0.99 0.51 0.04 0.01‬‬
‫‪0.43 0.60 0.59 0.55 0.64 0.10 0.61 0.22 0.85 0.42 0.01 0.98 0.05 0.20 0.11 0.23‬‬
‫‪0.68 0.41 0.96 0.48 0.11 0.59 0.11 0.10‬‬
‫) ‪2n1n2 1 2 2n1n2 ( 2n1n2 − N‬‬ ‫‪b − ( 2n1n2 N ) − 1 2‬‬
‫= ‪µb‬‬ ‫= ‪+ ,σb‬‬ ‫= ‪, Z0‬‬
‫‪N‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫)‪N ( N − 1‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪ 2n1n2 ( 2n1n2 − N ) ‬‬
‫‪12‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪N 2 ( N − 1) ‬‬
‫‪α = 0.05, z0.025 = 1.96‬‬
‫‪400‬‬
‫)ب( ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﺴﻄﺮ اﻷول ﻣﻦ اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ وﻟﺪ ﻗﯿﻢ ﻟـ ‪ 8‬ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮات ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﺗﺘﺒﻊ داﻟﺔ‬
‫اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫‪0,‬‬ ‫‪x≤0‬‬
‫‪ 2‬‬
‫‪x ,‬‬ ‫‪0 < x ≤1‬‬
‫‪2‬‬
‫‪F ( x) = ‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪1 − ( 2 − x ) ,‬‬ ‫‪1< x ≤ 2‬‬
‫‪‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪‬‬
‫‪‬‬‫‪1,‬‬ ‫‪x>2‬‬
‫ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام طﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﻘﺒﻮل واﻟﺮﻓﺾ ‪ Acceptance-Rejection Technique‬وﻟﺪ ﻗﯿﻢ ﻟـ ‪ 8‬ﻣﺘﻐﯿﺮات‬
‫ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﺗﺘﺒﻊ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﺑﻮاﺳﻮن ‪ Poisson Variates‬ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ . ( e −0.2 = 0.8187 ) λ = 0.2‬إﺳﺘﺨﺪم‬
‫اﻷرﻗﺎم اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺴﺆال اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﺳﻄﺮا ﺑﺴﻄﺮ‪ .‬ﺧﻄﻮات اﻟﺨﻮارزم ھﻲ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﺨﻄﻮة ‪ :1‬ﺿﻊ ‪ n = 0‬و ‪. P = 1‬‬
‫‪401‬‬

‫اﻟﻤﺎدة ‪ 342‬ﺑﺤﺚ )ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪(2‬‬
‫أﺷﺮح ﺑﺎﻟﺘﻔﺼﯿﻞ ﻋﻤﻞ اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪Space‬‬ ‫‪STORAGE‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫*‬
‫*‬ ‫‪Model Segment 1‬‬
‫*‬
‫‪TRANSFER‬‬ ‫‪Both,,Lost‬‬
‫‪ENTER‬‬ ‫‪Space‬‬
‫‪SEIZE‬‬ ‫‪Wash‬‬
‫‪LEAVE‬‬ ‫‪Space‬‬
‫‪ADVANCE‬‬ ‫))‪(Exponential(1,0,400‬‬
‫‪RELEASE‬‬ ‫‪Wash‬‬
‫‪Lost‬‬ ‫‪TERMINATE‬‬
‫*‬
‫*‬ ‫‪Model Segment 2‬‬
‫*‬
‫‪TERMINATE 1‬‬
‫ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪:GPSS‬‬
‫طﻮر اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺑﺤﯿﺚ‪:‬‬
‫‪ -1‬ﺗﺠﻤﻊ إﺣﺼﺎﺋﯿﺎت ﻋﻦ طﻮاﺑﯿﺮ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﺟﺪاول ﺗﻜﺮارﯾﺔ ﻟﻌﺪد اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ اﻟﺬﯾﻦ ﻣﺮو ﺑﺎﻟﻨﻈﺎم وأزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﻜﻮﺛﮭﻢ ﺑﺎﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬ﺗﻮﺟﺪ ﺟﺪاول ﺗﻜﺮارﯾﺔ ﻟﻌﺪد اﻟﻤﺘﻌﺎﻣﻠﯿﻦ اﻟﺬﯾﻦ ﻟﻢ ﯾﻤﺮو ﺑﺎﻟﻨﻈﺎم ‪.Lost‬‬
‫‪ -4‬أﺟﺮي اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ اﻟﻤﻄﻮر وأطﺒﻊ وﻓﺴﺮ اﻟﺘﻘﺮﯾﺮ اﻟﻨﺎﺗﺞ‪.‬‬
‫‪402‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺎدة ‪ 342‬ﺑﺤﺚ )ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪ (2‬اﻟﺰﻣﻦ ‪ 3‬ﺳﺎﻋﺎت‬
‫أﺟﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ أﺣﺪ اﻷﺳﺌﻠﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪: GPSS‬‬
‫ﺗﺼﻞ إﻟﻰ أﺣﺪ اﻟﻤﻮاﻧﺊ ﻧﻮﻋﯿﻦ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺴﻔﻦ ﻟﻜﻲ ﺗﻔﺮغ ﺣﻤﻮﻟﺘﮭﺎ‪ .‬ﯾﻮﺟﺪ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﯿﻨﺎء زورﻗﯿﻦ ﻗﻄﺮ‬
‫)ﻟﺴﺤﺐ اﻟﺴﻔﻦ إﻟﻰ داﺧﻞ وﺧﺎرج اﻷرﺻﻔﺔ( اﻟﻨﻮع اﻷول ﻣﻦ اﻟﺴﻔﻦ ﺻﻐﯿﺮة اﻟﺤﺠﻢ وﺗﺤﺘﺎج إﻟﻰ‬
‫زورق ﻗﻄﺮ واﺣﺪ ﻟﺴﺤﺒﮭﺎ إﻟﻰ وﻣﻦ اﻟﺮﺻﯿﻒ واﻟﻨﻮع اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﻛﺒﯿﺮة اﻟﺤﺠﻢ وﺗﺤﺘﺎج إﻟﻰ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ‬
‫اﻟﺰورﻗﯿﻦ ﻟﻘﻄﺮھﺎ إﻟﻰ وﻣﻦ اﻟﺮﺻﯿﻒ‪ .‬ﺑﺴﺒﺐ إﺧﺘﻼف ﺣﺠﻢ اﻟﺴﻔﻦ ﻓﺈﻧﮭﺎ ﺗﻔﺮغ ﺣﻤﻮﻟﺘﮭﺎ ﻓﻲ أرﺻﻔﺔ‬
‫ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ وﻓﻲ أزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﺔ ﺣﺴﺐ اﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﻧﻮع اﻟﺴﻔﯿﻨﺔ‬
‫ﻛﺒﯿﺮة‬ ‫ﺻﻐﯿﺮة‬
‫‪390 ± 60‬‬ ‫‪130 ± 30‬‬ ‫أزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل)دﻗﯿﻘﺔ(‬
‫‪45 ± 12‬‬ ‫‪30 ± 7‬‬ ‫زﻣﻦ اﻟﺴﺤﺐ ﻟﻠﺮﺻﯿﻒ)دﻗﯿﻘﺔ(‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫ﻋﺪد أرﺻﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﻔﺮﯾﻎ اﻟﻤﺘﺎﺣﺔ‬
‫‪18 ± 4‬‬ ‫‪12 ± 2‬‬ ‫زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻔﺮﯾﻎ)ﺳﺎﻋﺔ(‬
‫‪35 ± 10‬‬ ‫‪20 ± 5‬‬ ‫زﻣﻦ اﻟﺴﺤﺐ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺮﺻﯿﻒ)دﻗﯿﻘﺔ(‬
‫اﻟﺴﻔﯿﻨﺔ ﻻﺗﺴﺤﺐ إﻟﻰ داﺧﻞ اﻟﻤﯿﻨﺎء إﻻ إذا ﻛﺎن ھﻨﺎك رﺻﯿﻒ ﻣﺘﺎح ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻟﺤﺠﻤﮭﺎ‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ أن اﻟﺴﻔﻦ‬
‫ﻣﻦ اﻟﺤﺠﻢ اﻟﻜﺒﯿﺮ ﻻﺗﺴﺤﺐ إﻻ إذا ﻛﺎن ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ زورﻗﻲ اﻟﻘﻄﺮ ﻣﺘﺎﺣﺔ ﻟﮭﺎ‪.‬‬
‫ﺣﺎﻛﻲ ﻋﻤﻞ ﻧﻈﺎم اﻟﻤﯿﻨﺎء ﻟﻤﺪة اﺳﺒﻮع واﺣﺪ وأوﺟﺪ ﺟﻤﯿﻊ ﻣﻘﺎﯾﯿﺲ اﻷداء ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺤﻞ ﺑﻘﺎﻟﺔ ﺻﻐﯿﺮ ﯾﺘﻜﻮن ﻣﻦ ‪ 3‬ﻣﺴﺎرات ﺑﯿﻦ أرﻓﻒ اﻟﺒﻀﺎﺋﻊ وﻣﺤﺎﺳﺐ واﺣﺪ‪ .‬ﯾﺼﻞ اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ إﻟﻰ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺤﻞ ﺑﺄزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ وﺻﻮل ﻣﻮزﻋﺔ اﺳﯿﺎ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 90‬ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺔ‪ .‬ﻋﻨﺪ وﺻﻮل اﻟﺰﺑﻮن ﯾﺄﺧﺬ ﺳﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﻛﻮﻣﺔ ﺗﺘﻜﻮن ﻣﻦ ‪ 20‬ﺳﻠﺔ وﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ ﻋﺪم وﺟﻮد ﺳﻠﺔ ﻓﺈن اﻟﺰﺑﻮن ﯾﻐﺎدر اﻟﻤﺤﻞ أو ﻗﺪ ﯾﻨﺘﻈﺮ ﻓﺮاغ‬
‫ﺳﻠﺔ ﺑﺈﺣﺘﻤﺎل ‪ 0.55‬ﺛﻢ ﻗﺪ ﯾﺘﺠﺔ إﻟﻰ ﻣﺴﺎرأو أﻛﺜﺮ ﻟﻠﺘﺴﻮق ﺣﺴﺐ اﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺴﺎر إﺣﺘﻤﺎل دﺧﻮل اﻟﻤﺴﺎر زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﺴﻮق ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺴﺎر ﻋﺪد اﻟﻮﺣﺪات اﻟﻤﺄﺧﻮذة ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺴﺎر‬
‫‪3 ±1‬‬ ‫‪ 120 ± 60‬ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺔ‬ ‫‪0.75‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪4 ±1‬‬ ‫‪ 150 ± 30‬ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺔ‬ ‫‪0.55‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪5 ±1‬‬ ‫‪ 120 ± 45‬ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺔ‬ ‫‪0.82‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪ اﻹﻧﺘﮭﺎء ﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﺴﻮق ﯾﺘﺠﮫ اﻟﺰﺑﻮن ﻟﻨﻘﻄﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺐ وﯾﻨﺘﻈﺮ ﻓﻲ طﺎﺑﻮر ﺣﺴﺐ أوﻟﻮﯾﺔ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﻨﺪ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺐ ﯾﻮﺟﺪ رف ﺑﮫ ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﺒﻀﺎﺋﻊ اﻟﻤﺨﻔﻀﺔ واﻟﺘﻲ ﻗﺪ ﯾﺨﺘﺎر ﻣﻨﮭﺎ اﻟﺰﺑﻮن ﻋﺪد‬
‫‪ 2 ± 1‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﻮﺣﺪات ﺑﺈﺣﺘﻤﺎل ‪ . 0.25‬زﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺒﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ زﺑﻮن ﯾﻌﺘﻤﺪ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻮﺣﺪات اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﺮﯾﺪ‬
‫ﺷﺮاﺋﮭﺎ وھﻮ ‪ 3‬ﺛﻮان ﻟﻜﻞ وﺣﺪة‪ .‬ﺑﻌﺪ إﻧﺘﮭﺎء دﻓﻊ اﻟﺤﺴﺎب ﯾﺘﺮك اﻟﺰﺑﻮن اﻟﺴﻠﺔ وﯾﻐﺎدر‪.‬‬
‫ﺣﺎﻛﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻟﻤﺪة اﺳﺒﻮع واﺣﺪ ﺣﯿﺚ ﯾﻮم اﻟﻌﻤﻞ ‪ 8‬ﺳﺎﻋﺎت وأوﺟﺪ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﻠﺬﯾﻦ‬
‫ﻏﺎدرو اﻟﻤﺤﻞ ﺑﺪون ﺗﺴﻮق ﻟﻌﺪم ﺗﻮﻓﺮ ﺳﻼل‪ .‬ﺟﺪول زﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﻜﻮث ﺑﺎﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻟﻠﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﻮﻗﯿﻦ‪،‬‬
‫ﻣﺎھﻲ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻟﺴﻼل واﻟﻤﺤﺎﺳﺐ ﻣﺎھﻮ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺴﻼل اﻷﻣﺜﻞ اﻟﺬي ﯾﺠﺐ ان ﯾﻮﻓﺮه ﺻﺎﺣﺐ اﻟﻤﺤﻞ‬
‫ﺣﺘﻰ ﻻﯾﻔﻘﺪ أي زﺑﻮن؟‬
‫‪403‬‬
‫أ( أﺷﺮح ﻋﻤﻞ اﻷواﻣﺮ ‪ COMMANDS‬اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪) :‬إﺧﺘﺎر ‪ 3‬ﻓﻘﻂ(‬
‫‪1- Seats‬‬ ‫‪STORAGE‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬
‫‪2- TimeInSys TABLE‬‬ ‫‪M1,5,10,20‬‬
‫‪3- Delay‬‬ ‫‪VARIABLE‬‬ ‫‪RN1@10+50‬‬
‫‪4- InterAT‬‬ ‫‪FUNCTION‬‬ ‫‪RN1,D7‬‬
‫‪0,0/.05,1/.18,3/.34,4/.56,6/.85,7/1.0,8‬‬
‫ب( أﺷﺮح ﻋﻤﻞ اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ ‪ BLOCKS‬اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪) :‬إﺧﺘﺎر ‪ 3‬ﻓﻘﻂ(‬
‫‪1-‬‬ ‫‪GENERATE‬‬ ‫))‪Exponential(1,0,3‬‬
‫‪2-‬‬ ‫‪ADVANCE‬‬ ‫‪P1‬‬
‫‪3-‬‬ ‫‪TABULATE‬‬ ‫‪TimeInSys‬‬
‫‪4-‬‬ ‫‪TEST GE‬‬ ‫‪X$Seats,P$Delay‬‬
‫‪5-‬‬ ‫‪SAVEVALUE‬‬ ‫‪Seats-,P$Delay‬‬
‫أ( أذﻛﺮ اﻟﻘﻮاﻟﺐ اﻟﻤﻜﻤﻠﺔ ﻟﻠﻘﻮاﻟﺐ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪) :‬إﺧﺘﺎر ‪ 3‬ﻓﻘﻂ(‬
‫‪1- GENERATE‬‬ ‫‪2- QUEUE‬‬ ‫‪3- RELEASE‬‬
‫‪4- LEAVE‬‬ ‫‪5- ADVANCE‬‬ ‫‪6- TRANSFER‬‬
‫ب( أذﻛﺮ طﻮرﯾﻦ ﻣﻦ أطﻮار ‪ MODES‬اﻟﻘﺎﻟﺐ ‪ TRANSFER‬ﻣﻊ اﻟﺘﻮﺿﯿﺢ‪.‬‬
‫‪404‬‬
‫أﺟﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ واﺣﺪ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺴﺆاﻟﯿﻦ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﯿﻦ‪:‬‬
‫ﻗﻄﻊ ﻣﺼﻨﻌﺔ ﺗﺼﻞ إﻟﻰ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ اﻟﺘﻐﻠﯿﻒ ﺑﺄزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ وﺻﻮل ﻟﮭﺎ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪Time Between Arrivals Probability‬‬

‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪0.23‬‬
‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪0.37‬‬
‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.28‬‬
‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪0.12‬‬
‫ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺎت اﻟﺘﻐﻠﯿﻒ ﺗﺴﺘﻐﺮق أزﻣﻨﺔ ﻟﮭﺎ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ طﺒﯿﻌﻲ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 0.5‬وإﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﯿﺎري ‪. 0.1‬‬
‫أ( ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪ EXCEL‬أﺟﺮى ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻟﻠﻨﻈﺎم ﺣﺘﻰ اﻹﻧﺘﮭﺎء ﻣﻦ ﺗﻐﻠﯿﻒ ‪ 100‬ﻗﻄﻌﺔ‪ .‬وﻗﺪر‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ أزﻣﻨﺔ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻓﻲ طﺎﺑﻮر اﻟﺘﻐﻠﯿﻒ ﻟﺠﻤﯿﻊ اﻟﻘﻄﻊ وﻟﻠﻘﻄﻊ اﻟﺘﻲ أﻧﺘﻈﺮت ﻓﻌﻼ‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻋﻤﻠﯿﺔ اﻟﺘﻐﻠﯿﻒ وھﻞ ﻧﺤﺘﺎج إﻟﻰ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ ﺗﻐﻠﯿﻒ اﺧﺮى‪.‬‬
‫‪ -3‬أﻗﺼﻰ طﻮل ﻟﻠﻄﺎﺑﻮر‪.‬‬
‫ب( ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪ GPSS‬أﺟﺮى اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻔﻘﺮة اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ وأوﺟﺪ اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ ‪ 1‬و ‪ 2‬و ‪. 3‬‬
‫ﻟﺪﯾﻨﺎ ‪ 6‬ﺷﺎﺣﻨﺎت ﺗﺴﺘﺨﺪم ﻟﻨﻘﻞ اﻟﻔﺤﻢ ﻣﻦ ﻣﻨﺠﻢ اﻟﻰ ﻣﺤﻄﺔ اﻟﻘﻄﺎرات‪ .‬اﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻰ ﯾﻌﻄﻲ ﻣﺨﻄﻂ ﻟﺬﻟﻚ‪.‬‬
‫‪Station‬‬
‫‪text‬‬
‫‪Loading‬‬
‫‪text‬‬
‫‪Scale‬‬
‫‪Weighing‬‬ ‫‪text‬‬
‫‪Loader‬‬ ‫‪Queue‬‬
‫‪Queue‬‬
‫‪text‬‬
‫ﻛﻞ ﺷﺎﺣﻨﺔ ﺗﺤﻤﻞ ﻣﻦ رﺻﯿﻒ واﺣﺪ ﻣﻦ اﺣﺪ رﺻﯿﻔﯿﻦ وﺑﻌﺪ اﻟﺘﺤﻤﯿﻞ ﺗﺘﺤﺮك اﻟﺸﺎﺣﻨﺔ إﻟﻰ رﺻﯿﻒ وزن ﻟﻜﻲ ﺗﻮزن‪،‬‬
‫زﻣﻦ اﻟﺮﺣﻠﺔ ﻣﻦ ارﺻﻔﺔ اﻟﺸﺤﻦ ﻟﻠﻤﯿﺰان ﺗﺴﺘﻐﺮق ‪ 2 ± 1‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﻌﺪ اﻟﻮزن ﺗﺘﺤﺮك اﻟﺸﺎﺣﻨﺔ اﻟﻰ ﻣﺤﻄﺔ اﻟﻘﻄﺎرات‬
‫وﺗﻔﺮغ ﺷﺤﻨﺘﮭﺎ وﺗﻌﻮد اﻟﻰ ارﺻﻔﺔ اﻟﺸﺤﻦ ﻣﺮة ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺔ‪ .‬ﺗﻮزﯾﻌﺎت اوﻗﺎت اﻟﺸﺤﻦ واوﻗﺎت اﻟﻮزن وزﻣﻦ اﻟﺬھﺎب‬
‫واﻟﻌﻮدة ﻣﻦ واﻟﻰ ﻣﺤﻄﺔ اﻟﻘﻄﺎرات ﻣﻌﻄﺎة ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺪاول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬

‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬
‫‪405‬‬
‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪0.5‬‬
‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬

‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪0.7‬‬
‫‪16‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬

‫‪40‬‬ ‫‪0.4‬‬
‫‪60‬‬ ‫‪0.3‬‬
‫‪80‬‬ ‫‪0.2‬‬
‫‪100‬‬ ‫‪0.1‬‬

‫ﻧﻤﺬج اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﺑﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪ GPSS‬ﻹﻛﻤﺎل ‪ 100‬رﺣﻠﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺷﺎﺣﻨﺔ‪ .‬وﻗﺪر‬
‫‪ -1‬ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ ارﺻﻔﺔ اﻟﺸﺤﻦ ورﺻﯿﻒ اﻟﻮزن‪.‬‬
‫‪ -2‬ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ اﻹﻧﺘﻈﺎر ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ طﺎﺑﻮر‪.‬‬
‫‪406‬‬
‫‪ (1‬ﻧﺮﯾﺪ ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ اﻹﺳﺘﺮاﺗﯿﺠﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﺜﻠﻰ ﻟﻜﻲ ﻧﺮﺑﺢ ﻓﻲ ﻣﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺗﻠﻔﺰﯾﻮﻧﯿﺔ ﺗﺠﺮى ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻨﺤﻮ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﯾﻌﺮض ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺛﻼﺛﺔ اﺑﻮاب ﺧﻠﻔﮭﺎ ﺟﻮاﺋﺰ أﺣﺪ ھﺬه اﻟﺠﻮاﺋﺰ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ واﻻﺧﺮﯾﯿﻦ ﻟﯿﺲ ﻟﮭﺎ ﻗﯿﻤﺔ‪،‬‬
‫ﯾﻄﻠﺐ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎﺑﻖ إﺧﺘﯿﺎر أﺣﺪ ھﺬه اﻷﺑﻮاب وﺑﻌﺪ إﺧﺘﯿﺎرة وﻗﺒﻞ أن ﯾﻔﺘﺢ اﻟﺒﺎب ﻟﻤﻌﺮﻓﺔ اﻟﺠﺎﺋﺰة‬
‫ﯾﻘﻮم ﻣﻘﺪم اﻟﻤﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺑﻔﺘﺢ أﺣﺪ أﻷﺑﻮاب اﻻﺧﺮى ﻟﻜﻲ ﯾﻈﮭﺮ ﺧﻠﻔﮭﺎ ﺟﺎﺋﺰة ﻏﯿﺮ ذات ﻗﯿﻤﺔ‪ ،‬ﯾﺴﺄل ﻣﻘﺪم‬
‫اﻟﺒﺮﻧﺎﻣﺞ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻓﯿﻤﺎ إذا ﻛﺎن ﯾﺮﯾﺪ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ رأﯾﮫ وإﺳﺘﺒﺪال إﺧﺘﯿﺎره أﻷول وذﻟﻚ ﺑﺈﺧﺘﯿﺎر اﻟﺒﺎب‬
‫اﻵﺧﺮ اﻟﺬي ﺗﺒﻘﻰ‪.‬‬
‫اﻟﺴﺆال ھﻮ‪ :‬ھﻞ ﯾﺠﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ رأﯾﮫ وإﺧﺘﯿﺎر اﻟﺒﺎب اﻵﺧﺮ؟‬
‫ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺎ اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة أﺟﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺴﺆال اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺑﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة اﻟﺴﯿﻨﺎرﯾﻮھﺎت اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫أ( ﻟﻨﻔﺘﺮض أن ﻣﺘﺴﺎﺑﻘﺎ ﺳﻤﺢ ﻟﮫ اﻟﻠﻌﺐ ‪ 500‬ﻣﺮة‪ ،‬وﻟﻨﻔﺘﺮض أﻧﮫ داﺋﻤﺎ ﯾﺨﺘﺎر اﻟﺒﺎب رﻗﻢ ‪ 1‬وأﻧﮫ‬
‫ﻻﯾﻐﯿﺮ إﺧﺘﯿﺎره ﺑﻌﺪ ﻓﺘﺢ أﺣﺪ اﻻﺑﻮاب اﻟﻤﺘﺒﻘﯿﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﺈذا ﻋﻠﻤﺖ أن اﻟﺠﺎﺋﺰة اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ ﻗﺪ ﺗﻜﻮن ﺧﻠﻒ أي ﺑﺎب‬
‫ﻣﻦ اﻷﺑﻮاب ﺑﻨﻔﺲ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﻋﻨﺪ ﺑﺪاﯾﺔ اﻟﻠﻌﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻜﻢ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺮات ﯾﺮﺑﺢ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎﺑﻖ اﻟﺠﺎﺋﺰة اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ؟‬
‫ب( ﻟﻨﻔﺘﺮض أن ھﺬا اﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﺳﻤﺢ ﻟﮫ ﺑﺎﻟﻠﻌﺐ ‪ 500‬ﻣﺮة اﺧﺮى‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ھﺬه اﻟﻤﺮة ﯾﺨﺘﺎر داﺋﻤﺎ اﻟﺒﺎب‬
‫رﻗﻢ ‪ 1‬ﻓﻲ اﻟﺒﺪاﯾﺔ ﺛﻢ ﯾﻐﯿﺮ إﻟﻰ اﻟﺒﺎب اﻵﺧﺮ ﺑﻌﺪ ﻣﺸﺎھﺪه اﻟﺒﺎب اﻟﻤﻔﺘﻮح اﻟﺬي ﯾﺤﻮي ﺟﺎﺋﺰة ﻏﯿﺮ‬
‫ﻗﯿﻤﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﺈذا ﻋﻠﻤﺖ أن اﻟﺠﺎﺋﺰة اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ ﻗﺪ ﺗﻜﻮن ﺧﻠﻒ أي ﺑﺎب ﻣﻦ اﻷﺑﻮاب ﺑﻨﻔﺲ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﻋﻨﺪ ﺑﺪاﯾﺔ‬
‫اﻟﻠﻌﺒﺔ‪ ،‬ﻓﻜﻢ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺮات ﯾﺮﺑﺢ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎﺑﻖ اﻟﺠﺎﺋﺰة اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺔ؟‬
‫ج( إذا ﻛﻨﺖ ﻣﺘﺴﺎﺑﻘﺎ ﻣﺎذا ﻛﻨﺖ ﺳﺘﻔﻌﻞ إذا طﻠﺐ ﻣﻨﻚ ﺗﻐﯿﯿﺮ إﺧﺘﯿﺎرك اﻷول؟‬
‫‪ (2‬اﻟﻄﻠﺐ اﻟﺸﮭﺮي ﻋﻠﻰ آﺧﺮ ﻣﻮدﯾﻞ ﻣﻦ اﻟﺤﺎﺳﺒﺎت ﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺑﻲ ﺳﻲ‪ -‬ﻧﺖ ﯾﺘﺒﻊ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻄﺒﯿﻌﻲ‬
‫ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 350‬وإﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﯿﺎري ‪ .75‬ﺗﺸﺘﺮي ﺑﻲ ﺳﻲ‪ -‬ﻧﺖ ھﺬه اﻟﺤﺎﺳﺒﺎت ﺑﻤﺒﻠﻎ ‪ 4500‬﷼‬
‫وﺗﺒﯿﻌﮭﺎ ﺑﻤﺒﻠﻎ ‪ 8625‬﷼‪ .‬ﺗﺘﻜﻠﻒ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻣﺒﻠﻎ ‪ 375‬﷼ ﻟﻮﺿﻊ طﻠﺒﯿﺔ و ‪ 4‬﷼ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﻞ ﺣﺎﺳﺐ‬
‫ﯾﻈﻞ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﺨﺰﯾﻦ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ ﻛﻞ ﺷﮭﺮ‪ .‬ﺣﺎﻟﯿﺎ ﺗﻀﻊ اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ طﻠﺒﯿﺔ ﻟﻌﺪد ‪ 1000‬ﺣﺎﺳﺐ ﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ ﯾﻨﻘﺺ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ﻓﻲ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ اﻟﺸﮭﺮ ﻷﻗﻞ ﻣﻦ ‪ 100‬ﺣﺎﺳﺐ‪ .‬ﻋﻠﻰ إﻓﺘﺮاض ان اﻟﻄﻠﺒﯿﺎت اﻟﺘﻲ ﻻﺗﺘﺤﻘﻖ ﻓﻲ أي‬
‫ﺷﮭﺮ ﺗﻔﻘﺪ ﻟﺼﺎﻟﺢ ﺷﺮﻛﺎت ﻣﻨﺎﻓﺴﺔ ﻛﻤﺎ أن اﻟﻄﻠﺒﯿﺎت اﻟﻤﻮﺿﻮﻋﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ أﺣﺪ اﻷﺷﮭﺮ ﺗﺼﻞ ﻓﻲ‬
‫ﺑﺪاﯾﺔ اﻟﺸﮭﺮ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪.‬‬
‫أ( ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻗﺪر أرﺑﺎح اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﻟﻠﺴﻨﺘﯿﻦ اﻟﻘﺎدﻣﺘﯿﻦ‪.‬‬
‫ب( أﻓﺘﺮض أن اﻟﺸﺮﻛﺔ ﺗﺮﯾﺪ ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ‪ Reorder point‬و ﻛﻤﯿﺔ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ‪Order quantity‬‬
‫اﻟﻤﺜﻠﻰ ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪا ﻟﻜﻞ ‪ 100‬وﺣﺪة زﯾﺎدة ﻓﻲ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺳﻮف ﯾﻘﻮﻣﻮ ﺑﺈﻧﻘﺎص ﻛﻤﯿﺔ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺑﻤﻘﺪار‬
‫‪407‬‬
‫‪ .100‬أي ﺗﺮﻛﯿﺒﺔ ﻣﻦ ﻧﻘﻄﺔ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ وﻛﻤﯿﺔ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ ﺳﻮف ﺗﻌﻄﻲ أﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ أرﺑﺎح ﻟﻠﺴﻨﺘﯿﻦ‬
‫اﻟﻘﺎدﻣﺘﯿﻦ؟‬
‫‪ (3‬ﻣﺪﯾﺮ ﻣﺆﺳﺴﺔ اﻟﺘﻤﯿﻤﻲ ﻟﻸﺳﻮاق اﻟﻤﺮﻛﺰﯾﺔ ﯾﺤﺎول اﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ ﻋﻦ ﻣﻘﺪار اﻟﺪﺧﻞ اﻟﺬي ﺳﯿﻨﺘﺞ ﻣﻦ ﻛﻞ‬
‫ﻗﺴﻢ ﻣﻦ أﻗﺴﺎم اﻟﻤﺘﺠﺮ ﺧﻼل اﻟﺴﻨﺔ ‪ .2004‬ﻟﻘﺪ ﻗﺎم اﻟﻤﺪﯾﺮ ﺑﺘﻘﺪﯾﺮ ﻣﻌﺪﻻت اﻟﻨﻤﻮ اﻟﺼﻐﺮى واﻟﻌﻈﻤﻰ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻤﻜﻨﺔ ﻟﻠﺪﺧﻞ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻗﺴﻢ‪ .‬ﻛﻤﺎ أﻧﮫ ﯾﻌﺘﻘﺪ ﺑﺄن ﻣﻌﺪﻻت اﻟﻨﻤﻮ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻘﻊ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻘﯿﻤﺘﯿﻦ اﻟﺼﻐﺮى‬
‫واﻟﻌﻈﻤﻰ ﻟﮭﺎ ﻧﻔﺲ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﻓﻲ اﻟﺤﺪوث‪ .‬ﺗﻘﺪﯾﺮات اﻟﻤﺪﯾﺮ ﻣﻠﺨﺼﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﻣﻌﺪل اﻟﻨﻤﻮ‬
‫اﻷﻋﻈﻢ‬ ‫اﻷﺻﻐﺮ‬ ‫دﺧﻞ ‪ 2003‬ﺑﺎﻟﺮﯾﺎل‬ ‫اﻟﻘﺴﻢ‬
‫‪10%‬‬ ‫‪2%‬‬ ‫‪6342213‬‬ ‫اﻷدوات اﻟﻜﮭﺮﺑﺎﺋﯿﺔ‬
‫‪5%‬‬ ‫‪- 4%‬‬ ‫‪1203231‬‬ ‫ﻣﻠﺘﺰﻣﺎت اﻟﺤﺪاﺋﻖ‬
‫‪6%‬‬ ‫‪- 2%‬‬ ‫‪4367342‬‬ ‫أﺣﺬﯾﺔ‬
‫‪8%‬‬ ‫‪- 1%‬‬ ‫‪3543532‬‬ ‫ﻣﻠﺘﺰﻣﺎت اﻟﺮﯾﺎﺿﺔ‬
‫‪15%‬‬ ‫‪4%‬‬ ‫‪4342132‬‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺎب‬
‫ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻗﻢ ﺑﺘﻘﺪﯾﺮ اﻟﺪﺧﻞ اﻟﻜﻠﻲ اﻟﺬي ﻗﺪ ﯾﻨﺘﺞ ﻟﻠﻌﺎم اﻟﻘﺎدم ‪ .2004‬ﻛﺮر اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪500‬‬
‫ﻣﺮة وأوﺟﺪ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫أ( ﻛﻮن ﻓﺘﺮة ﺛﻘﺔ ‪ 95%‬ﻟﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى اﻟﺪﺧﻞ اﻟﻤﺘﻮﻗﻊ ﻟﻌﺎم ‪.2004‬‬
‫ب( ﺣﺴﺐ ﻧﻤﻮذﺟﻚ ﻣﺎھﻲ اﻟﻔﺮص ﻓﻲ أن ﯾﻜﻮن اﻟﺪﺧﻞ اﻟﻜﻠﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺳﻨﺔ ‪ 2004‬أﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ‪ 5%‬زﯾﺎدة‬
‫ﻋﻨﺔ ﻋﻦ اﻟﻌﺎم اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ؟‬
‫‪ (4‬ﻓﻨﺪق اﻟﻀﯿﺎﻓﺔ ﻟﻠﻌﺎﺋﻼت ﻟﺪﯾﮫ ‪ 100‬ﻏﺮﻓﺔ ﺗﺆﺟﺮ ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ ﺑﻤﺒﻠﻎ ‪ 400‬﷼ ﻟﻠﻐﺮﻓﺔ‪ .‬ﺗﺘﻜﻠﻒ إدارة‬
‫اﻟﻔﻨﺪق ‪ 100‬﷼ ﻟﻠﻐﺮﻓﺔ ﻛﻤﺼﺎرﯾﻒ ﻣﺘﻨﻮﻋﺔ )ﺗﻨﻈﯿﻒ‪ ،‬رواﺗﺐ‪ ،‬ﺻﯿﺎﻧﺔ اﻟﺦ( ﻟﻜﻞ ﯾﻮم ﺗﺄﺟﺮ ﻓﯿﮫ‬
‫اﻟﻐﺮﻓﺔ‪ .‬ﻟﻜﻞ ﺣﺠﺰ ﺗﻢ ﻗﺒﻮﻟﮫ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻔﻨﺪق ھﻨﺎك إﺣﺘﻤﺎل ‪ 5%‬أن اﻟﻀﯿﻮف ﻟﻦ ﯾﺼﻠﻮ‪ .‬إذا أﺧﺬ اﻟﻔﻨﺪق‬
‫ﺣﺠﻮزات أﻛﺜﺮ ﻣﻦ ﻋﺪد اﻟﻐﺮف اﻟﺸﺎﻏﺮة ﻓﺈن ﻋﻠﯿﮫ ﺗﻌﻮﯾﺾ اﻟﻀﯿﻒ اﻟﻘﺎدم ﺑﺤﺠﺰ ﻣﺆﻛﺪ واﻟﺬي‬
‫ﻻﯾﺠﺪ ﻏﺮﻓﺔ ﺷﺎﻏﺮة ﺑﻤﺒﻠﻎ ‪ 750‬﷼‪ .‬ﺣﺪد ﻋﺪد اﻟﺤﺠﻮزات اﻟﺘﻲ ﯾﻤﻜﻦ ان ﯾﺘﻘﺒﻠﮭﺎ اﻟﻔﻨﺪق ﺑﺤﯿﺚ‬
‫ﯾﻌﻈﻢ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ رﺑﺤﮫ اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ‪ .‬أﺳﺘﺨﺪم ‪ 500‬ﺗﻜﺮار ﻟﻠﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ﺣﺠﺰ ﺗﺄﺧﺬه‪.‬‬
‫‪408‬‬
‫‪ (5‬ﺗﻤﺮ أﺣﺪ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﻮﻻت ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﻤﻨﺎزل ﺗﺴﺘﺠﺪي ﻣﺒﻠﻐﺎ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺎل‪ .‬ﻣﻦ ﺧﺒﺮﺗﮭﺎ اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﺗﻘﺪر أن ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ طﺒﯿﻌﻲ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 20‬﷼ وإﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﯿﺎري ‪ 3‬﷼ ﺑﯿﻨﻤﺎ ذﻟﻚ ﻟﻠﺮﺟﺎل ﯾﺘﺒﻊ اﯾﻀﺎ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ‬
‫طﺒﯿﻌﻲ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 10‬﷼ وإﻧﺤﺮاف ﻣﻌﯿﺎري ‪ 2‬﷼‪) .‬إذا ﻋﻠﻤﺖ أن اﻟﻤﺘﺴﻮﻟﺔ ﺗﻐﻄﻲ ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 10‬إﻟﻰ‬
‫‪ 15‬ﻣﻨﺰﻻ ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ ﺑﻨﻔﺲ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎل( ﻓﻘﺪر ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ دﺧﻠﮭﺎ )اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ( )ﻓﻲ زﯾﺎرة ﻟﻌﺪد ‪ 200‬ﻣﻨﺰل‪(.‬‬
‫‪ (6‬ﻓﻲ ﻣﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ ﻣﻌﺪﻟﺔ ﻣﻦ " ﻣﻦ ﺳﯿﺮﺑﺢ اﻟﻤﻠﯿﻮن " ﺑﻌﺪ أن ﯾﺘﻢ إﺧﺘﯿﺎر اﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻣﻦ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ‬
‫ﻣﺘﺴﺎﺑﻘﯿﻦ ﯾﻄﺮح ﻋﻠﯿﮫ ﻋﺪة أﺳﺌﻠﺔ ﺗﺘﻜﻮن ﻛﻞ ﻣﻨﮭﺎ ﻣﻦ أرﺑﻊ إﺟﺎﺑﺎت ﻣﺤﺘﻤﻠﺔ واﺣﺪة ﻣﻨﮭﺎ ﺻﺤﯿﺤﺔ ﻓﺈذا‬
‫أﺟﺎب اﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎﺑﻖ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺴﺆال اﻟﻤﻄﺮوح ﺑﺈﺟﺎﺑﺔ ﺻﺤﯿﺤﺔ ﻓﺈﻧﮫ ﯾﻨﺘﻘﻞ ﻟﻠﺴﺆال اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ وھﻜﺬا ﺣﺘﻰ ﯾﺼﻞ‬
‫إﻟﻰ ﺳﺆال اﻟﻤﻠﯿﻮن‪ .‬ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺮض أن اﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﺳﺆال ھﻲ اﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ اﻟﺼﺤﯿﺤﺔ وأن اﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎﺑﻖ‬
‫ﯾﺨﺘﺎر أﺣﺪ اﻹﺟﺎﺑﺎت اﻷرﺑﻌﺔ ﺑﻄﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﺑﻨﻔﺲ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎل وإذا ﻛﺎن ھﻨﺎك ‪ 16‬ﺳﺆاﻻ ﺣﺘﻰ‬
‫ﯾﺮﺑﺢ اﻟﻤﻠﯿﻮن‬
‫أ( أوﺟﺪ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎﺑﻘﯿﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 500‬ﻣﺘﺴﺎﺑﻖ اﻟﺬﯾﻦ ﯾﺮﺑﺤﻮن اﻟﻤﻠﯿﻮن‪.‬‬
‫ب( إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ اﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ اﻟﺼﺤﯿﺤﺔ ﺗﺘﻐﯿﺮ ﻣﻦ ﺳﺆال ﻵﺧﺮ ﺑﻄﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﻋﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ ﺑﺤﯿﺚ ﺗﻜﻮن أي ﻣﻦ‬
‫اﻹﺟﺎﺑﺎت اﻷرﺑﻌﺔ وﺑﻨﻔﺲ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎل أوﺟﺪ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎﺑﻘﯿﻦ ﻣﻦ ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 500‬ﻣﺘﺴﺎﺑﻖ اﻟﺬﯾﻦ ﯾﺮﺑﺤﻮن‬
‫اﻟﻤﻠﯿﻮن‪.‬‬
‫ج( ﺣﺎﻛﻲ ﻣﺴﺎﺑﻘﺔ " ﻣﻦ ﺳﯿﺮﺑﺢ اﻟﻤﻠﯿﻮن " ﻛﻤﺎ ﺗﺸﺎھﺪھﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺘﻠﻔﺰﯾﻮن وأوﺟﺪ ﻧﺴﺒﺔ اﻟﻤﺘﺴﺎﺑﻘﯿﻦ ﻣﻦ‬
‫ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 500‬ﻣﺘﺴﺎﺑﻖ اﻟﺬﯾﻦ ﯾﺮﺑﺤﻮن اﻟﻤﻠﯿﻮن‪.‬‬
‫‪ (7‬إﺧﺘﺒﺎر ﻣﺘﻌﺪد اﻹﺧﺘﯿﺎرات ﯾﺘﻜﻮن ﻣﻦ ‪ 10‬أﺳﺌﻠﺔ‪ ،‬ﻛﻞ ﺳﺆال ﻟﺔ ‪ 4‬إﺟﺎﺑﺎت )‪ (A‬و )‪ (B‬و )‪ (C‬و‬
‫)‪ (D‬واﺣﺪة ﻣﻨﮭﺎ ﻓﻘﻂ ﺻﺤﯿﺤﺔ‪ .‬ﻗﺎم طﺎﻟﺐ ﻏﯿﺮ ﻣﺴﺘﻮﻋﺐ ﻟﻠﻤﺎدة ﺑﺈﺟﺎﺑﺔ اﻷﺳﺌﻠﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﺮﯾﻘﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬
‫أوﻻ( ﯾﺮﻣﻲ ﻋﻤﻠﺔ ﻣﺘﺰﻧﺔ ﻓﺈذا ظﮭﺮ وﺟﮫ ‪ H‬أﺧﺘﺎر اﻹﺟﺎﺑﺘﯿﻦ )‪ (A‬و )‪ (B‬وإﻻ أﺧﺘﺎر )‪ (C‬و )‪.(D‬‬
‫ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺎ( ﯾﺮﻣﻲ اﻟﻌﻤﻠﺔ ﻣﺮة اﺧﺮي ﻟﻜﻲ ﯾﺨﺘﺎر واﺣﺪة ﻣﻦ اﻹﺟﺎﺑﺘﯿﻦ ﻓﺈذا ظﮭﺮ وﺟﮫ ‪ H‬أﺧﺘﺎر اﻹﺟﺎﺑﮫ‬
‫)‪ (A‬أو )‪ (C‬وإﻻ اﺧﺘﺎر )‪ (B‬أو )‪ .(D‬أﻧﻈﺮ اﻟﺸﻜﻞ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪409‬‬
‫)‪H (A‬‬
‫)‪H (A & B‬‬
‫)‪T (B‬‬
‫)‪H (C‬‬
‫)‪T (C & D‬‬
‫)‪T (D‬‬
‫)أ( ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺮض أن ﻛﻞ ﺳﺆال ﻋﻠﯿﮫ ﻋﻼﻣﺔ واﺣﺪة‪ ،‬وأن اﻟﻨﺠﺎح ﯾﻜﻮن ﻋﻠﻰ أﺳﺎس اﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ اﻟﺼﺤﯿﺤﺔ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ 5‬ﻣﻦ ‪ 10‬أﺳﺌﻠﺔ‪ .‬ﻗﺪر ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة إﺣﺘﻤﺎل ﻧﺠﺎح ھﺬا اﻟﻄﺎﻟﺐ ﻣﺴﺘﺨﺪﻣﺎ ‪ 200‬ﺗﻜﺮارا‪.‬‬
‫ﻋﻠﻤﺎ أن اﻹﺟﺎﺑﺎت اﻟﺼﺤﯿﺤﺔ ھﻲ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪9‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪7‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪5‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫اﻟﺴﺆال‬
‫‪D‬‬ ‫‪B‬‬ ‫‪D‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬ ‫‪D‬‬ ‫‪B‬‬ ‫‪C‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬ ‫‪A‬‬ ‫‪B‬‬ ‫اﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ اﻟﺼﺤﯿﺤﺔ‬
‫)ب( أﻋﺪ ﻓﻘﺮة )أ( إذا ﻛﺎن اﻟﻨﺠﺎح ﻋﻠﻰ أﺳﺎس اﻹﺟﺎﺑﺔ اﻟﺼﺤﯿﺤﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪ 6‬ﻣﻦ ‪ 10‬أﺳﺌﻠﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﺣﻞ اﻟﺴﺆال اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪:GPSS‬‬

‫‪410‬‬
‫‪18 ± 4‬‬ ‫‪12 ± 2‬‬ ‫زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻔﺮﯾﻎ)ﺳﺎﻋﺔ(‬
‫‪411‬‬
‫اﻟﺴﺆال اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ‪:‬‬
‫ﻋﺪد اﻟﻮﺣﺪات اﻟﻤﺄﺧﻮذة ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺴﺎر‬ ‫زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﺴﻮق ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺴﺎر‬ ‫إﺣﺘﻤﺎل دﺧﻮل اﻟﻤﺴﺎر‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺴﺎر‬
‫‪3 ±1‬‬ ‫‪ 120 ± 60‬ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺔ‬ ‫‪0.75‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪4 ±1‬‬ ‫‪ 150 ± 30‬ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺔ‬ ‫‪0.55‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪5 ±1‬‬ ‫‪ 120 ± 45‬ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺔ‬ ‫‪0.82‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪412‬‬
‫اﻟﺴﺆال اﻟﺴﺎدس‪:‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻣﺤﻞ ﻟﻠﺒﯿﻊ اﻟﻤﻔﺮق اﻟﻄﻠﺐ اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻨﺪ ﻣﻌﯿﻦ ﯾﺘﺒﻊ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ ) ‪ N (10, 4‬وﺣﺪة‪ .‬ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﻧﻘﺺ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ﻣﻦ ھﺬا اﻟﺒﻨﺪ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ‪ 30‬وﺣﺪة ﻓﺈن ﺻﺎﺣﺐ اﻟﻤﺤﻞ ﯾﻀﻊ طﻠﺒﯿﺔ ﻣﻊ اﻟﻤﻮرد ﻟﻌﺪد‬
‫‪ 100‬وﺣﺪة واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺼﻞ إﻟﻰ اﻟﻤﺤﻞ ﻓﻲ ﻓﺘﺮة زﻣﻨﯿﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 6‬و ‪ 10‬أﯾﺎم ﻣﻮزﻋﺔ ﻣﺘﺴﺎوﯾﺔ‪ .‬أي طﻠﺒﯿﺔ‬
‫ﻻﺗﺠﺪ ﻣﺨﺰون ﻛﺎﻓﻲ ﻟﮭﺎ ﺗﻔﻘﺪ‪.‬‬
‫أوﺟﺪ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ‪ :‬اﻟﻤﺒﯿﻌﺎت اﻟﯿﻮﻣﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻔﻘﻮدة و ﻋﺪد اﻟﻮﺣﺪات ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون‬
‫اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ‪.‬‬
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‫اﻟﺴﺆال اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻊ‪:‬‬
‫ﻣﻄﻌﻢ ﻟﻠﺨﺪﻣﺔ اﻟﺴﺮﯾﻌﺔ ﯾﻌﻤﻞ ﺑﮫ ﺧﺎدﻣﯿﻦ وﻟﮫ طﺎﺑﻮر واﺣﺪ ﻟﻺﻧﺘﻈﺎر‪ ،‬زﻣﻦ ﻣﺎ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل ﻟﻠﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‬
‫ﻟﮫ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ‪ . 2.5 ± 1.5‬أﺣﺪ اﻟﺨﺎدﻣﯿﻦ ﯾﺪﻋﻰ أﺣﻤﺪ ﻣﻌﺮوف ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ وھﻮ أﻛﺜﺮ ﺧﺒﺮة وﺳﺮﻋﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻲ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻣﻦ زﻣﯿﻠﮫ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺠﺪ ﺑﻜﺮ‪ ،‬اﻟﺰﺑﻮن اﻟﺬي ﯾﺼﻞ وﯾﺠﺪ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ أﺣﻤﺪ وﺑﻜﺮ ﻓﺎرﻏﯿﻦ ﯾﺨﺘﺎر‬
‫أﺣﻤﺪ ﻟﺨﺪﻣﺘﺔ‪ .‬زﻣﻦ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ اﻟﺰﺑﻮن ﻷﺣﻤﺪ ﻟﮫ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ‪ 3.5 ± 1.5‬وﻟﺒﻜﺮ ‪. 4.5 ± 1.5‬‬
‫ﺣﺎﻛﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﺣﺘﻰ إﻧﺘﮭﺎء ﺧﺪﻣﺔ ‪ 1000‬زﺑﻮن وأوﺟﺪ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ أﺣﻤﺪ وﺑﻜﺮ وﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﺬﯾﻦ‬
‫ﺗﻤﺖ ﺧﺪﻣﺘﮭﻢ ﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ أﺣﻤﺪ وﺑﻜﺮ وأوﺟﺪ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ طﻮل اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر‪.‬‬
‫أﺟﺐ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺴﺆال اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ ﺑﺈﺳﺘﺨﺪام ‪: GPSS‬‬

‫ﯾﺘﻜﻮن ﻣﺼﺮف ﻣﻦ ‪ 5‬ﺻﺮاﻓﯿﻦ‪ ،‬ﯾﻔﺘﺢ اﻟﻤﺼﺮف أﺑﻮاﺑﮫ اﻟﺴﺎﻋﺔ ‪ 9:00‬ﺻﺒﺎﺣﺎ وﯾﻐﻠﻖ اﻟﺴﺎﻋﺔ ‪5:00‬‬
‫ﻋﺼﺮا‪ ،‬وﻟﻜﻦ ﯾﺴﺘﻤﺮ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﺣﺘﻰ ﯾﻨﮭﻲ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ آﺧﺮ زﺑﻮن وﺻﻞ ﻗﺒﻞ أو ﻋﻨﺪ ‪ 5:00‬ﻋﺼﺮا‪ .‬أزﻣﻨﺔ‬
‫ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل ﻟﻠﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﻟﮭﺎ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﺳﻲ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 1‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ وأزﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ ﻟﮭﺎ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﺳﻲ‬
‫ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 4.5‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻛﻞ ﺻﺮاف ﻟﮫ طﺎﺑﻮر ﺧﺎص ﺑﮫ‪ .‬ﯾﺤﺎول أي زﺑﻮن وﺻﻞ ﺗﻮا اﻹﻟﺘﺤﺎق ﺑﺄﻗﺼﺮ طﺎﺑﻮر وﻓﻲ ﺣﺎل‬
‫ﺗﺴﺎوي أطﻮال اﻟﻄﻮاﺑﯿﺮ ﯾﻠﺘﺤﻖ اﻟﺰﺑﻮن ﺑﺎﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ﻓﻲ أﻗﺼﻰ اﻟﯿﺴﺎر‪ .‬أي زﺑﻮن ﻓﻲ ﻧﮭﺎﯾﺔ أي طﺎﺑﻮر‬
‫ﯾﺘﺮك طﺎﺑﻮره وﯾﻠﺘﺤﻖ ﺑﺎﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر اﻷﻗﺼﺮ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎل ﻛﻮن ھﻨﺎك طﺎﺑﻮر أﻗﺼﺮ ﻣﻦ طﺎﺑﻮره وﻋﻨﺪﻣﺎ‬
‫ﯾﻜﻮن ھﻨﺎك طﺎﺑﻮرﯾﻦ ﻣﺘﺴﺎوﯾﯿﻦ أﻗﺼﺮ ﻣﻦ طﺎﺑﻮره ﯾﻠﺘﺤﻖ اﻟﺰﺑﻮن ﺑﺎﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر اﻷﻗﺼﺮ ﻓﻲ أﻗﺼﻰ‬
‫اﻟﯿﺴﺎر‪ ،‬وإذا ﻛﺎن ھﺬا اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر ﺧﺎﻟﯿﺎ ﯾﺒﺪأ اﻟﺰﺑﻮن ﺑﺎﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻓﻮرا‪.‬‬
‫ﺗﺤﺮص إدارة اﻟﻤﺼﺮف ﻋﻠﻰ إرﺿﺎء اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ وﺗﻔﻜﺮ ﻓﻲ زﯾﺎدة ﺻﺮاف أو أﻛﺜﺮ وﻟﻜﻦ ﺗﺮﯾﺪ اﻟﻘﯿﺎم‬
‫ﺑﺪراﺳﺔ ﺗﺪﻋﻢ ﺑﮭﺎ ھﺬا اﻟﻘﺮار‪ .‬ﻗﻢ ﺑﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻧﻈﺎم اﻟﻤﺼﺮف ﺣﺎﻟﯿﺎ وﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ إﺿﺎﻓﺔ ‪ 1‬أو ‪ 2‬ﺻﺮاف‬
‫إﺿﺎﻓﻲ ﻟﻤﺪة ‪ 30‬ﯾﻮﻣﺎ‪ ،‬ﻣﺎھﻲ ﺗﻮﺻﯿﺎﺗﻚ؟‬
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‫ﻣﺼﻨﻊ ﺑﮫ ‪ 5‬ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺎت ﻣﻦ اﻵﻻت‪ ،‬اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ اﻷوﻟﻰ ﺑﮭﺎ ‪ 3‬آﻻت واﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ اﻟﺜﺎﻧﯿﺔ ﺑﮭﺎ ‪ 2‬آﻟﺔ‬
‫واﻟﺜﺎﻟﺜﺔ ﺑﮭﺎ ‪ 4‬آﻻت واﻟﺮاﺑﻌﺔ ﺑﮭﺎ ‪ 3‬آﻻت واﻟﺨﺎﻣﺴﺔ ﺑﮭﺎ ‪ 1‬آﻟﺔ واﺣﺪة وﺟﻤﯿﻊ اﻵﻻت ھﻲ ﻧﻔﺴﮭﺎ ﻓﻲ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ اﻟﻮاﺣﺪة‪ .‬ﺗﺼﻞ اﻟﻮظﺎﺋﻒ اﻟﻤﺮاد ﺗﺼﻨﯿﻌﮭﺎ إﻟﻰ اﻟﻤﺼﻨﻊ ﺑﺄزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ وﺻﻮل ﻟﮭﺎ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ‬
‫اﺳﻲ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 0.25‬ﺳﺎﻋﺔ‪ .‬اﻟﻮظﺎﺋﻒ اﻟﻮاﺻﻠﺔ ﺗﺘﻜﻮن ﻣﻦ ‪ 3‬أﻧﻮاع‪ ،‬اﻟﻮظﺎﺋﻒ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻮع اﻷول‬
‫ﺗﻜﻮن ‪ 30%‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﻮظﺎﺋﻒ وﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻮع اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ ﺗﻜﻮن ‪ 50%‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﻮظﺎﺋﻒ وﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻮع اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ ﺗﻜﻮن‬
‫‪ 20%‬ﻣﻦ اﻟﻮظﺎﺋﻒ‪ .‬اﻟﻮظﺎﺋﻒ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻮع اﻷول ﺗﺤﺘﺎج إﻟﻰ ‪ 4‬ﻣﮭﺎم ﻹﻧﺠﺎزھﺎ وﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻮع اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ إﻟﻰ‬
‫‪ 3‬ﻣﮭﺎم ﻹﻧﺠﺎزھﺎ وﻣﻦ اﻟﻨﻮع اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ إﻟﻰ ‪ 5‬ﻣﮭﺎم ﻹﻧﺠﺎزھﺎ وﻛﻞ ﻣﮭﻤﺔ ﯾﺠﺐ أن ﺗﺘﻢ ﻋﻨﺪ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ‬
‫ﻣﻌﯿﻨﺔ ﻣﻦ اﻵﻻت وﺑﺘﺮﺗﯿﺐ ﻣﻌﯿﻦ ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ اﻟﻤﻜﺎﺋﻦ ﺑﺎﻟﺘﺮﺗﯿﺐ )ﻣﻦ اﻟﯿﺴﺎر(‬ ‫ﻧﻮع اﻟﻮظﯿﻔﺔ‬
‫‪3, 1, 2, 5‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪4, 1, 3‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪2, 5, 1, 4, 3‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫أزﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﮭﻤﺔ ﺣﺴﺐ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ اﻵﻻت ﻟﮭﺎ ﺗﻮزﯾﻌﺎت ﻣﺘﺴﺎوﯾﺔ ﺣﺴﺐ اﻟﺠﺪول اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬
‫أزﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﻤﮭﺎم ﺑﺎﻟﺴﺎﻋﺔ )ﻣﻦ اﻟﯿﺴﺎر(‬ ‫ﻧﻮع اﻟﻮظﯿﻔﺔ‬

‫) ‪( 0.50 ± 0.10 ) , ( 0.60 ± 0.05 ) , ( 0.85 ± 0.15 ) , ( 0.50 ± 0.20‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫)‪(1.10 ± 0.20 ) , ( 0.80 ± 0.15) , ( 0.75 ± 0.25‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫) ‪(1.20 ± 0.15 ) , ( 0.25 ± 0.05 ) , ( 0.70 ± 0.15 ) , ( 0.90 ± 0.20 ) , (1.00 ± 0.10‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫اﻟﻮظﺎﺋﻒ اﻟﻮاﺻﻠﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺗﻨﺘﻈﺮ دورھﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ إﻧﺸﻐﺎل اﻵﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺳﺘﻘﻮم ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ‬
‫واﻷﻓﻀﻠﯿﺔ ﻟﻠﻮظﯿﻔﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺼﻞ أوﻻ‪.‬‬
‫ﺣﺎﻛﻲ ‪ 365‬ﯾﻮﻣﺎ ﻟﻠﻤﺼﻨﻊ ﻋﻠﻰ إﻋﺘﺒﺎر أن اﻟﯿﻮم ﯾﺘﻜﻮن ﻣﻦ ‪ 8‬ﺳﺎﻋﺎت وﻗﺪر ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ أزﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﺘﺄﺧﺮ‬
‫ﻓﻲ اﻟﻄﻮاﺑﯿﺮ وﻗﺪر ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ طﻮل وﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻛﻞ طﺎﺑﻮر ﻓﻲ ﻛﻞ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪415‬‬
‫ﺗﺼﻞ اﻟﺴﻔﻦ إﻟﻰ ﻣﯿﻨﺎء ﺑﺄزﻣﻨﺔ ﻣﺎﺑﯿﻦ وﺻﻮل ﻟﮭﺎ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﺳﻲ ﺑﻤﺘﻮﺳﻂ ‪ 1.25‬ﯾﻮﻣﺎ‪ .‬اﻟﻤﯿﻨﺎء ﯾﺘﻜﻮن‬
‫ﻣﻦ رﺻﯿﻔﯿﻦ ﻟﻜﻞ ﻣﻨﮭﻤﺎ آﻟﺔ ﺗﻔﺮﯾﻎ )وﻧﺶ( واﺣﺪة‪ .‬اﻟﺴﻔﻦ اﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺼﻞ وﺗﺠﺪ اﻷرﺻﻔﺔ ﻣﺸﻐﻮﻟﺔ ﺗﻨﺘﻈﺮ‬
‫ﻓﻲ طﺎﺑﻮر واﺣﺪ ﺣﺴﺐ أوﻟﻮﯾﺔ وﺻﻮﻟﮭﺎ‪ .‬زﻣﻦ ﺗﻔﺮﯾﻎ ﺳﻔﯿﻨﺔ ﻟﮫ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ﻣﺘﺴﺎوي ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 0.5‬و ‪1.5‬‬
‫ﯾﻮﻣﺎ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻟﺔ وﺟﻮد ﺳﻔﯿﻨﺔ واﺣﺪة ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﯿﻨﺎء ﻓﺈن آﻻت اﻟﺘﻔﺮﯾﻎ ﻛﻠﺘﯿﮭﻤﺎ ﯾﻌﻤﻼن ﻋﻠﯿﮭﺎ ﻣﻤﺎ ﯾﺨﺘﺼﺮ‬
‫زﻣﻦ ﺗﻔﺮﯾﻐﮭﺎ إﻟﻰ اﻟﻨﺼﻒ‪ .‬ﻋﻨﺪ وﺟﻮد ﺳﻔﯿﻨﺘﯿﻦ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﯿﻨﺎء ﻓﺈن آﻻت اﻟﺘﻔﺮﯾﻎ ﺗﻌﻤﻞ ﻛﻞ واﺣﺪة ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﺳﻔﯿﻨﺔ‪ .‬ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎل ﻋﻤﻞ اﻵﻟﺘﯿﻦ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺳﻔﯿﻨﺔ ووﺻﻮل ﺳﻔﯿﻨﺔ ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺔ ﻓﺈن أﺣﺪ اﻵﻻت ﺗﻘﻄﻊ ﻋﻤﻠﮭﺎ ﻓﻮرا‬
‫وﺗﺒﺪأ اﻟﻌﻤﻞ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻟﺴﻔﯿﻨﺔ اﻟﺘﻲ وﺻﻠﺖ واﻟﺰﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺘﺒﻘﻲ ﻟﺘﻔﺮﯾﻎ اﻟﺴﻔﯿﻨﺔ اﻷوﻟﻰ ﯾﺘﻀﺎﻋﻒ‪.‬‬
‫أﺟﺮي ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة ﻟﻨﻈﺎم اﻟﻤﯿﻨﺎء ﻟﻤﺪة ‪ 90‬ﯾﻮﻣﺎ وﻗﺪر أﻗﻞ و أﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ زﻣﻦ ﻣﻜﻮث اﻟﺴﻔﻦ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‬
‫وﻛﺬﻟﻚ ﻗﺪر ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ اﻷرﺻﻔﺔ وآﻻت اﻟﺘﻔﺮﯾﻎ‪.‬‬
‫‪416‬‬
‫‪18 ± 4‬‬ ‫‪12 ± 2‬‬ ‫زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻔﺮﯾﻎ)ﺳﺎﻋﺔ(‬
‫‪417‬‬
‫اﻟﺴﺆال اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ‪:‬‬
‫ﻋﺪد اﻟﻮﺣﺪات اﻟﻤﺄﺧﻮذة ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺴﺎر‬ ‫زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﺴﻮق ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺴﺎر‬ ‫إﺣﺘﻤﺎل دﺧﻮل اﻟﻤﺴﺎر‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺴﺎر‬
‫‪3 ±1‬‬ ‫‪ 120 ± 60‬ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺔ‬ ‫‪0.75‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬
‫‪4 ±1‬‬ ‫‪ 150 ± 30‬ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺔ‬ ‫‪0.55‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬
‫‪5 ±1‬‬ ‫‪ 120 ± 45‬ﺛﺎﻧﯿﺔ‬ ‫‪0.82‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬
‫‪418‬‬
‫اﻟﺴﺆال اﻟﺴﺎدس‪:‬‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﻣﺤﻞ ﻟﻠﺒﯿﻊ اﻟﻤﻔﺮق اﻟﻄﻠﺐ اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻨﺪ ﻣﻌﯿﻦ ﯾﺘﺒﻊ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ ) ‪ N (10, 4‬وﺣﺪة‪ .‬ﻛﻠﻤﺎ ﻧﻘﺺ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺨﺰون ﻣﻦ ھﺬا اﻟﺒﻨﺪ ﻋﻦ ﻣﺴﺘﻮى ‪ 30‬وﺣﺪة ﻓﺈن ﺻﺎﺣﺐ اﻟﻤﺤﻞ ﯾﻀﻊ طﻠﺒﯿﺔ ﻣﻊ اﻟﻤﻮرد ﻟﻌﺪد‬
‫‪ 100‬وﺣﺪة واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﺼﻞ إﻟﻰ اﻟﻤﺤﻞ ﻓﻲ ﻓﺘﺮة زﻣﻨﯿﺔ ﺑﯿﻦ ‪ 6‬و ‪ 10‬أﯾﺎم ﻣﻮزﻋﺔ ﻣﺘﺴﺎوﯾﺔ‪ .‬أي طﻠﺒﯿﺔ‬
‫ﻻﺗﺠﺪ ﻣﺨﺰون ﻛﺎﻓﻲ ﻟﮭﺎ ﺗﻔﻘﺪ‪.‬‬
‫أوﺟﺪ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﻤﺘﻐﯿﺮات اﻟﻌﺸﻮاﺋﯿﺔ‪ :‬اﻟﻤﺒﯿﻌﺎت اﻟﯿﻮﻣﯿﺔ اﻟﻤﻔﻘﻮدة و ﻋﺪد اﻟﻮﺣﺪات ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺨﺰون‬
‫اﻟﯿﻮﻣﻲ‪.‬‬
‫‪419‬‬
‫اﻟﺴﺆال اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻊ‪:‬‬
‫ﻣﻄﻌﻢ ﻟﻠﺨﺪﻣﺔ اﻟﺴﺮﯾﻌﺔ ﯾﻌﻤﻞ ﺑﮫ ﺧﺎدﻣﯿﻦ وﻟﮫ طﺎﺑﻮر واﺣﺪ ﻟﻺﻧﺘﻈﺎر‪ ،‬زﻣﻦ ﻣﺎ ﺑﯿﻦ اﻟﻮﺻﻮل ﻟﻠﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‬
‫ﻟﮫ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ‪ . 2.5 ± 1.5‬أﺣﺪ اﻟﺨﺎدﻣﯿﻦ ﯾﺪﻋﻰ أﺣﻤﺪ ﻣﻌﺮوف ﻣﻦ ﻗﺒﻞ اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ وھﻮ أﻛﺜﺮ ﺧﺒﺮة وﺳﺮﻋﺔ‬
‫ﻓﻲ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻣﻦ زﻣﯿﻠﮫ اﻟﻤﺴﺘﺠﺪ ﺑﻜﺮ‪ ،‬اﻟﺰﺑﻮن اﻟﺬي ﯾﺼﻞ وﯾﺠﺪ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ أﺣﻤﺪ وﺑﻜﺮ ﻓﺎرﻏﯿﻦ ﯾﺨﺘﺎر‬
‫أﺣﻤﺪ ﻟﺨﺪﻣﺘﺔ‪ .‬زﻣﻦ ﺧﺪﻣﺔ اﻟﺰﺑﻮن ﻷﺣﻤﺪ ﻟﮫ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ ‪ 3.5 ± 1.5‬وﻟﺒﻜﺮ ‪. 4.5 ± 1.5‬‬
‫ﺣﺎﻛﻲ اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﺣﺘﻰ إﻧﺘﮭﺎء ﺧﺪﻣﺔ ‪ 1000‬زﺑﻮن وأوﺟﺪ ﻓﻌﺎﻟﯿﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ أﺣﻤﺪ وﺑﻜﺮ وﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ اﻟﺬﯾﻦ‬
‫ﺗﻤﺖ ﺧﺪﻣﺘﮭﻢ ﺑﻮاﺳﻄﺔ ﻛﻞ ﻣﻦ أﺣﻤﺪ وﺑﻜﺮ وأوﺟﺪ ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ طﻮل اﻟﻄﺎﺑﻮر‪.‬‬
‫‪420‬‬
:‫اﻟﻤﺮاﺟﻊ‬
‫( ﻣﺒﺎدئ اﻹﺣﺼﺎء واﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻻت‬1
‫ أﻧﻮر أﺣﻤﺪ‬.‫ ﻣﺤﻤﻮد ﻣﺤﻤﺪ إﺑﺮاھﯿﻢ ھﻨﺪي و د‬.‫ د‬، ‫ ﻋﺪﻧﺎن ﻣﺎﺟﺪ ﻋﺒﺪاﻟﺮﺣﻤﻦ ﺑﺮي‬.‫ د‬:‫ﺗﺄﻟﯿﻒ‬
‫ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ اﻟﻤﻠﻚ ﺳﻌﻮد‬:‫ﻣﺤﻤﺪ ﻋﺒﺪ اﻟﻠﺔ – اﻟﻨﺎﺷﺮ‬
‫( أﺳﺎﺳﯿﺎت طﺮق اﻟﺘﺤﻠﯿﻞ اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ‬2
‫ اﻟﺤﺴﯿﻨﻲ ﻋﺒﺪ‬.‫ ﻣﺤﻤﻮد ﻣﺤﻤﺪ إﺑﺮاھﯿﻢ ھﻨﺪي و د‬.‫ د‬، ‫ ﻋﺪﻧﺎن ﻣﺎﺟﺪ ﻋﺒﺪاﻟﺮﺣﻤﻦ ﺑﺮي‬.‫ د‬:‫ﺗﺄﻟﯿﻒ‬
‫ ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ اﻟﻤﻠﻚ ﺳﻌﻮد‬:‫اﻟﺒﺮ إﺑﺮاھﯿﻢ راﺿﻲ – اﻟﻨﺎﺷﺮ‬
‫( طﺮق اﻟﺘﻨﺒﺆ اﻹﺣﺼﺎﺋﻲ‬3
‫ ﻋﺪﻧﺎن ﻣﺎﺟﺪ ﻋﺒﺪاﻟﺮﺣﻤﻦ ﺑﺮي‬.‫ د‬:‫ﺗﺄﻟﯿﻒ‬
http://www.abarry.net/or/or221book1.pdf ‫ ﻋﻠﻰ اﻹﻧﺘﺮﻧﺖ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﻮﻗﻊ‬:‫اﻟﻨﺎﺷﺮ‬
4) Discrete-Event System Simulation, Second Ed.
By: Jerry Banks, John S. Carson, II and Barry L. Nelson.
Published by: Prentice Hall, 1996
5) Simulation Modelling and Analysis, Second Ed.
By: Avrill M. Law and W. David Kelton.
Published by: McGraw-Hill, 1991
6) Simulation with Arena.
By: W. David Kelton, Randall P. Sadowski and Deborah A. Sadowski.
Published by: McGraw-Hill,1998
7) Applied Management Science, Modelling, Spreadsheet Analysis,
and Communication for Decision Making, Second Ed.
By: John A. Lawrence, Jr. and Barry A. Pasternack.
Published by: Wiley 2002.
8) GPSS World Reference Manual. Student Version.
Published by: Minuteman Software.
421

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‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ اﻟﻤﻠﻚ ﺳﻌﻮد‬

‫ﻗﺴﻢ اﻹﺣﺼﺎء وﺑﺤﻮث اﻟﻌﻤﻠﻴﺎت‬

‫ﺗﺄﻟﻴﻒ د‪ .‬ﻋﺪﻧﺎن ﻣﺎﺟﺪ ﻋﺒﺪاﻟﺮﺣﻤﻦ ﺑﺮي‬

‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ اﻟﻤﻠﻚ ﺳﻌﻮد‬

‫ﻓﻲ ھﺬا اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‪:‬‬

‫اﻧﺸﻄﺔ‬ ‫ﺻﻔﺎت‬ ‫ﻛﺎﺋﻨﺎت‬ ‫اﻟﻨﻈﺎم‬

‫‪STATIC‬‬ ‫‪DYNAMIC‬‬ ‫‪STATIC‬‬ ‫‪DYNAMIC‬‬

‫‪NUMERICAL‬‬ ‫‪ANALYTICAL‬‬ ‫‪NUMERICAL‬‬ ‫‪SIMULATION‬‬

‫وﻟﻜﻦ ھﻨﺎك ﺑﻌﺾ اﻟﻌﯿﻮب او ﺑﺎﻻﺣﺮى اﻟﺼﻌﻮﺑﺎت ﻣﺜﻞ‪:‬‬

‫ﺧﻄﻮات إﻋﺪاد اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة‪:‬‬

Setting of objectives and overall

Model conceptualization Data collection

Production runs and analysis

‫‪ period‬وطﻮل إﺟﺮاﺋﺎت ‪ Simulation runs‬اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة وﻋﺪد اﻟﺘﻜﺮارات ﻟﻜﻞ إﺟﺮاء‪.‬‬

‫وﺑﻨﻔﺲ اﻟﻄﺮﯾﻘﺔ ﻧﻜﻮن ﺟﺪول ﻷوﻗﺎت اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ زﺑﻮن ﻛﺎﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪ :2‬أﺣﻤﺪ وﺑﻜﺮ ﻟﻠﺨﺪﻣﺔ اﻟﺴﺮﯾﻌﺔ‪:‬‬

:‫ﺟﺪول ﺗﻮزﯾﻊ أزﻣﻨﺔ اﻟﺨﺪﻣﺔ ﻟﺒﻜﺮ‬

.‫اﻟﻤﻄﻠﻮب ﻣﺤﺎﻛﺎة اﻟﻨﻈﺎم ﻟﻤﻌﺮﻓﺔ أداﺋﮫ‬

‫ﻣﺪة اﻟﻤﺤﺎﻛﺎة ‪ 72‬دﻗﯿﻘﺔ‬

‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪ :3‬ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺑﺎﺋﻊ اﻟﺼﺤﻒ‪:‬‬

‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪ :4‬ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺘﺨﺰﯾﻦ‪:‬‬

‫‪Daily Demand‬‬ ‫‪0‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬

‫)‪Lead Time (Days‬‬ ‫‪1‬‬ ‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪3‬‬

‫ﺟﺪول ﻣﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻘﺪم‪:‬‬

‫‪15‬‬ ‫‪6‬‬ ‫‪65‬‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺠﻤﻮع‬

‫ﻣﺜﺎل ‪ 5‬ﻣﺸﻜﻠﺔ ﺗﺤﺪﯾﺪ اﻟﻄﻠﺐ‪:‬‬

‫‪Number of Customers/Day‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪10‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪14‬‬

‫ﻛﻞ زﺑﻮن ﯾﺸﺘﺮي ﻋﺪد ﻣﻦ اﻷرﻏﻔﺔ ﺣﺴﺐ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪Number of Loafs/Customer‬‬ ‫‪4‬‬ ‫‪8‬‬ ‫‪12‬‬ ‫‪16‬‬

‫‪Number of Customers‬‬ ‫‪CDF‬‬ ‫‪Random Number‬‬

‫ﻧﻌﺪ ﺟﺪول )‪ (2‬ﻟﻌﺪد اﻷرﻏﻔﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ زﺑﻮن‬

8 ‫( ﻧﺠﺪ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‬1) ‫ وﻣﻦ ﺟﺪول‬R = 0.25 :‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻷول‬

Customer Number R Number of Loafs

8 ‫( ﻧﺠﺪ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‬1) ‫ وﻣﻦ ﺟﺪول‬R = 0.18 :‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ‬

Customer Number R Number of Loafs

10 ‫( ﻧﺠﺪ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‬1) ‫ وﻣﻦ ﺟﺪول‬R = 0.59 :‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ‬

8 ‫( ﻧﺠﺪ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‬1) ‫ وﻣﻦ ﺟﺪول‬R = 0.20 :‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ‬

Customer Number R Number of Loafs

8 ‫( ﻧﺠﺪ ﻋﺪد اﻟﺰﺑﺎﺋﻦ‬1) ‫ وﻣﻦ ﺟﺪول‬R = 0.11 :‫اﻟﯿﻮم اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ‬

Customer Number R Number of Loafs

‫ﺟﺪول ﻣﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ ﻋﺪد اﻷرﻏﻔﺔ ﻟﻜﻞ زﺑﻮن‬

‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.165930‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬

‫إذا ﻋﺪد اﻷرﻏﻔﺔ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﻟﻠﯿﻮم اﻷول = ‪ 76‬رﻏﯿﻔﺎ‬

‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.191331‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬

‫إذا ﻋﺪد اﻷرﻏﻔﺔ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﻟﻠﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻧﻲ = ‪ 92‬رﻏﯿﻔﺎ‬

‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.377338‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬

‫إذا ﻋﺪد اﻷرﻏﻔﺔ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﻟﻠﯿﻮم اﻟﺜﺎﻟﺚ = ‪ 96‬رﻏﯿﻔﺎ‬

‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.352606‬‬ ‫‪04‬‬

‫إذا ﻋﺪد اﻷرﻏﻔﺔ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﻟﻠﯿﻮم اﻟﺮاﺑﻊ = ‪ 100‬رﻏﯿﻔﺎ‬

‫‪2‬‬ ‫‪0.682001‬‬ ‫‪08‬‬

‫إذا ﻋﺪد اﻷرﻏﻔﺔ اﻟﻤﺒﺎﻋﺔ ﻟﻠﯿﻮم اﻟﺨﺎﻣﺲ = ‪ 96‬رﻏﯿﻔﺎ‬

‫زﻣﻦ اﻟﺘﻘﺪم ﺑﺎﻷﯾﺎم ﻟﮫ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪Lead Time Probability Cumulative Probability‬‬ ‫‪Random Numbers‬‬

‫ﻣﺘﻮﺳﻂ اﻟﻮﺣﺪات اﻟﻤﺘﺒﻘﯿﺔ ﯾﻮﻣﯿﺎ =‪ 3.4 = 85/25‬وﺣﺪة‪.‬‬

‫ﺟﺪول ﻣﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ اﻟﻤﺨﺎطﺐ‬

‫ﺟﺪول ﻣﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ إذا ﻛﺎﻧﺖ اﻧﺜﻰ ھﻞ ﺗﺪﻓﻊ ﻣﺒﻠﻎ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺎل‬

‫ﺟﺪول ﻣﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ إذا ﻛﺎن رﺟﻞ ھﻞ ﯾﺪﻓﻊ ﻣﺒﻠﻎ ﻣﻦ اﻟﻤﺎل‬

‫ﺟﺪول ﻣﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ اﻟﻤﺒﻠﻎ اﻟﺬي ﺗﺪﻓﻌﮫ اﻷﻧﺜﻰ‬

‫ﺟﺪول ﻣﻌﺎﯾﻨﺔ اﻟﻤﺒﻠﻎ اﻟﺬي ﯾﺪﻓﻌﮫ اﻟﺮﺟﻞ‬

‫ﻛﻮن داﻟﺔ اﻟﺘﻮزﯾﻊ اﻹﺣﺘﻤﺎﻟﻲ ﺛﻢ أدﺧﻞ اﻟﺒﯿﺎﻧﺎت ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﺼﻔﺤﺔ اﻟﺘﺎﻟﯿﺔ‪:‬‬

‫ﻛﺮراﻟﺨﻄﻮات ﻛﻤﺎ ﻓﻲ اﻟﻤﺜﺎل اﻟﺴﺎﺑﻖ‪.‬‬

‫ھﻨﺎ اﺳﺘﺨﺪﻣﻨﺎ ‪ 3‬دوال‪:‬‬

‫‪ -3‬اﻟﺪاﻟﺔ ) (‪ RAND‬واﻟﺘﻲ ﺗﻌﻄﻲ )‪.U ( 0,1‬‬