Welcome to Statistical PERT® Normal Edition

Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) is a freely licensed, probabilistic, estimation technique. Use Statistical PERT
to estimate uncertainties that have bell-shaped risk properties, like: task duration, work effort,
revenue, expenses, agile story points, project portfolios, event attendance, and more.

Statistical PERT® Normal Edition uses Excel's two normal distribution functions, NORM.DIST and
NORM.INV to model mild-to-moderately skewed uncertainties. To model a wider range of
bell-shaped uncertainties, try Statistical PERT® Beta Edition which uses Excel's two beta
distribution functions, BETA.DIST and BETA.INV.

This example workbook is intended to help you quickly get started. You can also download
a Quick Start guide for Statistical PERT® Normal Edition. The Quick Start guide explains the
essential things you need to know to use this Statistical PERT® Normal Edition spreadsheet.
All Statistical PERT downloads share the same three steps for making a probablistic estimate:

1) Create a 3-point estimate (minimum, most likely, maximum)

2) Render a subjective judgment about the most likely outcome
3) Select any probabilistic planning estimate, or make a risk-based forecast

If you have any questions, suggestions, or comments, I'd love to hear from you!
Contact me!

Version 2.3 – © 2015-2018, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP

Download more FREE Statistical PERT® templates at https://www.statisticalpert.com
Watch a Pluralsight course on Statistical PERT® Normal Edition
Watch Statistical PERT videos on YouTube
Follow Statistical PERT on Twitter to learn when new updates are released
This spreadsheet file is a free spreadsheet template: you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version.

This spreadsheet is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (http://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
 Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition for Beginners

First, enter a three-point estimate for any uncertainty

Minimum Most Likely Maximum
60 120 240 Use SPERT to estimate task duration, work effort, agile story points

Validate your bell-shaped uncertainty A green checkmark means you have correctly entered m
A green or yellow light means you have a suitable, bell

The PERT Mean is the average result PERT Mean

(It's also called the expected result) 130

Render a subjective judgment about HOW LIKELY

the Most Likely outcome really is

This is the SPERT Standard Deviation for your uncertainty

Show probabilities from either the left-side area or right-side are

Enter a Planning Estimate and see its likelihood of occurrence under SPERT Probabilit

Here, you'll see several SPERT estimates with differe

You can change these cumulative probability choices (enter
Find a SPERT Probablistic Estimate that best matche

Choose whether to show currency formatting

Do not show currency formatting

That's it! Now try using the (3-Point entry) worksheet!

Or, use the (1-Point entry) worksheet, where two heuristics automatically calculate the Minimum
-50% << Heuristics >> 100% (You can change the dropdown options on the Vlookups worksheet)
Minimum Most Likely Maximum
60 120 240
Try selecting a different dropdown percentage by clicking above the Minimum and Maximum cell headings,
and see the value changes for the minimum and maximum point-estimates in the green-shaded cells.
The rest of the (1-Point entry) worksheet works exactly the same way as the (3-Point entry) worksheet.

Version 2.3 – © 2015-2018, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP

Download more FREE Statistical PERT® templates at https://www.statisticalpert.com
Watch a Pluralsight course on Statistical PERT® Normal Edition
Watch Statistical PERT videos on YouTube
Follow Statistical PERT on Twitter to learn when new updates are released
This spreadsheet file is a free spreadsheet template: you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version.

This spreadsheet is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (http://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
dition for Beginners

estimate task duration, work effort, agile story points, cos

green checkmark means you have correctly entered minimum, most likely and maximum point-estimates.
green or yellow light means you have a suitable, bell-shaped uncertainty. If it's red, try changing your three-point estimate.

The PERT Mean is calculated using the PERT formula: (Minimum + 4(Most Likely) + Maximum) / 6

Most Likely Confidence

Medium confidence This choice influences the implied bell-shaped curve for the uncertainty you are estimating

SPERT SD
d Deviation for your uncertainty 36
You don't have to know this or do anything with this, but SPERT needs this

m either the left-side area or right-side area Show Left-Side Area Read the red text below to see how this choice a

Planning SPERT Note: This is a cumulative probability, so th

Estimate Probability the Planning Estimate will be EQUAL TO or
ood of occurrence under SPERT Probability 150 71.07% * This is true if you choose Show Left-Side Area in th
you'll see the SPERT Probability that your Planning E

Show the likelihood that the SPERT estimates wil

e, you'll see several SPERT estimates with different probabilities of occurrence SPERT Probabi
change these cumulative probability choices (enter values between 1% and 99%) → 10% 90%
RT Probablistic Estimate that best matches your risk propensity → 84 176

stics automatically calculate the Minimum and Maximum point-estimates

the dropdown options on the Vlookups worksheet)
nimum and Maximum cell headings,
ates in the green-shaded cells.
s the (3-Point entry) worksheet.

atisticalpert.com

eleased
it and/or modify it under the terms of the
n, either version 3 of the License,

OUT ANY WARRANTY;

A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
oint estimate.

ertainty you are estimating

his, but SPERT needs this

below to see how this choice affects the SPERT estimates

mulative probability, so the SPERT Probability is the likelihood that

mate will be EQUAL TO or GREATER THAN the uncertainty's actual outcome*
hoose Show Left-Side Area in the dropdown control above. If you choose Show Right-Side Area,
Probability that your Planning Estimate will be EXCEEDED by the uncertainty's actual outcome.

d that the SPERT estimates will be EQUAL TO or GREATER THAN an uncertainty

SPERT Probabilistic Estimates
85% 80% 75% 70%
167 160 154 149
 Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition
-50% << Heuristics >> 100%
ID Minimum Most Likely Maximum PERT Mean
1 60 120 240 130
2 60 120 240 130
3 60 120 240 130
4 60 120 240 130
5 60 120 240 130
6 60 120 240 130
7 60 120 240 130
8
9
10
420 840 1,680 910

Do not show currency formatting

With 80% confidence

The lowerbound threshold is 758
and the upperbound threshold is 1,062

Between a lowerbound value of 800 Miss the pie

and an upperbound value of 1,000 chart? Press
the range probability is 60% CTRL and 6
where, below the lowerbound, the % is 18% to show the
and above the upperbound, the % is 22% pie chart

To use this template:

1) Create a 3-point estimate under the Minimum, Most Likely, and Maximum columns
2) Render a subjective judgment about how likely the Most Likely outcome is, under the Most Likely Confidence column
3) Examine the SPERT probabilistic estimates for various confidence levels
Note: NORM.DIST and NORM.INV functions use the mean (i.e., the PERT expected value) which impliies probabilistic

Optionally:
Enter any desired estimate under the Planning Estimate column to find the SPERT probability for the planning estimate

Version 2.3 – © 2015-2018, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP

Download more FREE Statistical PERT® templates at https://www.statisticalpert.com
Watch a Pluralsight course on Statistical PERT® Normal Edition
Watch Statistical PERT videos on YouTube
Follow Statistical PERT on Twitter to learn when new updates are released
This spreadsheet file is a free spreadsheet template: you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version.

This spreadsheet is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (http://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
 Show Left-Side Area Show the likelihood that the SPERT estimates wil

Planning SPERT SPERT Probabi

Most Likely Confidence SPERT SD Estimate Probability 10% 90%
Near certainty 13 150 94.19% 114 146
High confidence 20 150 83.55% 104 156
Medium-high confidence 28 150 76.06% 94 166
Medium confidence 36 150 71.07% 84 176
Medium-low confidence 48 150 66.04% 68 192
Low confidence 61 150 62.90% 52 208
Guesstimate 73 150 60.78% 36 224

119 1,050 88.12% 552 1,268

Whole project or portfolio planning estimate 1,000 77.62% 758 1,062

After you finish entering your estimates above, use this

area to calculate the probability of all uncertainties
together. This is especially useful for creating a forecast
for an entire project, for example.

Choose the confidence you want for the confidence

interval in cell D108, and/or choose the confidence
lower and upperbound thresholds in cells D112 and
D113.

Maximum columns
utcome is, under the Most Likely Confidence column

the PERT expected value) which impliies probabilistic symmetry.

find the SPERT probability for the planning estimate

atisticalpert.com

eleased
it and/or modify it under the terms of the
n, either version 3 of the License,

OUT ANY WARRANTY;

A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
d that the SPERT estimates will be EQUAL TO or GREATER THAN an uncertainty
SPERT Probabilistic Estimates
85% 80% 75% 70%
143 141 139 137
151 147 144 141
159 154 149 145
167 160 154 149
180 171 163 155
193 181 171 162
206 192 179 168

1,200 1,145 1,099 1,057

1,033 1,010 990 972

 Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition

ID Minimum Most Likely Maximum PERT Mean

1 60 120 240 130
2 60 120 240 130
3 60 120 240 130
4 60 120 240 130
5 60 120 240 130
6 60 120 240 130
7 60 120 240 130
8
9
10
420 840 1,680 910

Do not show currency formatting

With 80% confidence

The lowerbound threshold is 758
and the upperbound threshold is 1,062

Between a lowerbound value of 800 Miss the pie

and an upperbound value of 1,000 chart? Press
the range probability is 60% CTRL and 6
where, below the lowerbound, the % is 18% to show the
and above the upperbound, the % is 22% pie chart

To use this template:

1) Create a 3-point estimate under the Minimum, Most Likely, and Maximum columns
2) Render a subjective judgment about how likely the Most Likely outcome is, under the Most Likely Confidence column
3) Examine the SPERT probabilistic estimates for various confidence levels
Note: NORM.DIST and NORM.INV functions use the mean (i.e., the PERT expected value) which impliies probabilistic

Optionally:
Enter any desired estimate under the Planning Estimate column to find the SPERT probability for the planning estimate

Version 2.3 – © 2015-2018, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP

Download more FREE Statistical PERT® templates at https://www.statisticalpert.com
Watch a Pluralsight course on Statistical PERT® Normal Edition
Watch Statistical PERT videos on YouTube
Follow Statistical PERT on Twitter to learn when new updates are released
This spreadsheet file is a free spreadsheet template: you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version.

This spreadsheet is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (http://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
 Show Left-Side Area Show the likelihood that the SPERT estimates wil

Planning SPERT SPERT Probabi

Most Likely Confidence SPERT SD Estimate Probability 10% 90%
Near certainty 13 150 94.19% 114 146
High confidence 20 150 83.55% 104 156
Medium-high confidence 28 150 76.06% 94 166
Medium confidence 36 150 71.07% 84 176
Medium-low confidence 48 150 66.04% 68 192
Low confidence 61 150 62.90% 52 208
Guesstimate 73 150 60.78% 36 224

119 1,050 88.12% 552 1,268

Whole project or portfolio planning estimate 1,000 77.62% 758 1,062

After you finish entering your estimates above, use this

area to calculate the probability of all uncertainties
together. This is especially useful for creating a forecast
for an entire project, for example.

Choose the confidence you want for the confidence

interval in cell D108, and/or choose the confidence
lower and upperbound thresholds in cells D112 and
D113.

Maximum columns
utcome is, under the Most Likely Confidence column

the PERT expected value) which impliies probabilistic symmetry.

find the SPERT probability for the planning estimate

atisticalpert.com

eleased
it and/or modify it under the terms of the
n, either version 3 of the License,

OUT ANY WARRANTY;

A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
d that the SPERT estimates will be EQUAL TO or GREATER THAN an uncertainty
SPERT Probabilistic Estimates
85% 80% 75% 70%
143 141 139 137
151 147 144 141
159 154 149 145
167 160 154 149
180 171 163 155
193 181 171 162
206 192 179 168

1,200 1,145 1,099 1,057

1,033 1,010 990 972

 Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition
-50% < Heuristics > 100%
ID Min % Min point Minimum Most Likely Maximum Max point Max %
1 60 120 240
2 60 120 240
3 60 120 240
4 -10% 108 120 144 20%
5 -25% 90 120 160 160
6 40 40 120 200 200
7 80 80 120 210 75%
8
9
10
498 840 1,434

Do not show currency formatting

With 80% confidence

After you finish entering you
The lowerbound threshold is 771 this area to calculate the pr
and the upperbound threshold is 993 uncertainties together. This
creating a forecast for an en
example.
Between a lowerbound value of 800 Miss the pie
Choose the confidence you
and an upperbound value of 1,000 chart? Press confidence interval in cell F
the range probability is 74% CTRL and 6 confidence lower and uppe
cells F112 and F113.
where, below the lowerbound, the % is 17% to show the
and above the upperbound, the % is 9% pie chart

To use this template:

1) Create a 3-point estimate under the Minimum, Most Likely, and Maximum columns
2) Render a subjective judgment about how likely the Most Likely outcome is, under the Most Likely Confidence column
3) Examine the SPERT probabilistic estimates for various confidence levels
Note: NORM.DIST and NORM.INV functions use the mean (i.e., the PERT expected value) which impliies probabilistic

Optionally:
Enter any desired estimate under the Planning Estimate column to find the SPERT probability for the planning estimate

Version 2.3 – © 2015-2018, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP

Download more FREE Statistical PERT® templates at https://www.statisticalpert.com
Watch a Pluralsight course on Statistical PERT® Normal Edition
Watch Statistical PERT videos on YouTube
Follow Statistical PERT on Twitter to learn when new updates are released
This spreadsheet file is a free spreadsheet template: you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version.

This spreadsheet is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (http://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
 Show Left-Side Area Show the likelihood that the SPERT estimates will be EQ

Planning SPERT SPERT Probabilistic E

PERT Mean Most Likely Confidence SPERT SD Estimate Probability 10% 90%
130 Near certainty 13 150 94.19% 114 146
130 High confidence 20 150 83.55% 104 156
130 Medium-high confidence 28 150 76.06% 94 166
122 Medium confidence 7 150 99.99% 113 131
122 Medium-low confidence 19 150 93.40% 98 146
120 Low confidence 54 150 71.08% 51 189
128 Guesstimate 53 150 65.92% 61 196

882 87 1,050 97.39% 633 1,131

Whole project or portfolio planning estimate 1,000 91.36% 771 993

After you finish entering your estimates above, use

this area to calculate the probability of all
uncertainties together. This is especially useful for
creating a forecast for an entire project, for
example.

Choose the confidence you want for the

confidence interval in cell F108, and/or choose the
confidence lower and upperbound thresholds in
cells F112 and F113.

the Most Likely Confidence column

d value) which impliies probabilistic symmetry.

robability for the planning estimate

under the terms of the

of the License,
hood that the SPERT estimates will be EQUAL TO or GREATER THAN an uncertainty

SPERT Probabilistic Estimates

85% 80% 75% 70%
143 141 139 137
151 147 144 141
159 154 149 145
129 128 127 126
141 137 134 132
176 165 156 148
183 173 164 156

1,083 1,046 1,013 984

972 955 940 927

 Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition

ID Minimum Most Likely Maximum PERT Mean

1 60 120 240 130
5 90 5

Most Likely Confidence Normal Distribu

0.016

0.014

0.012

0.01

0.008

0.006

0.004
The pie chart above depicts the uncertainty surrounding
the Most Likely outcome. In 100 hypothetical trials, 0.002
each pie slice shows how many times the minimum,
most likely and maximum outcomes would occur if those 0
3 15 27 39 51 63 75 87 99 111 123 135 147 1
were the only three outcomes possible.

Version 2.3 – © 2015-2018, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP

Download more FREE Statistical PERT® templates at https://www.statisticalpert.com
Watch a Pluralsight course on Statistical PERT® Normal Edition
Watch Statistical PERT videos on YouTube
Follow Statistical PERT on Twitter to learn when new updates are released
This spreadsheet file is a free spreadsheet template: you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version.

This spreadsheet is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (http://www.gnu.org/licenses/).

X-axis increments 3.00

3 5.7428693E-07
6 9.207077E-07
 9 1.4595346E-06
12 2.2877405E-06
15 3.545675E-06
18 5.4336399E-06
21 8.2334634E-06
24 0.000012336
27 1.8275332E-05
30 2.6770489E-05
33 3.877458E-05
36 5.5531278E-05
39 7.8637193E-05
42 0.0001101078
45 0.0001524432
48 0.0002086881
51 0.0002824796
54 0.0003780735
57 0.0005003401
60 0.0006547176
63 0.0008471153
66 0.0010837543
69 0.0013709414
72 0.0017147734
75 0.0021207738
78 0.0025934731
81 0.0031359483
84 0.0037493487
87 0.0044324366
90 0.0051811839
93 0.0059884615
96 0.0068438626
99 0.0077336957
102 0.0086411719
105 0.0095468036
108 0.0104290104
111 0.0112649167
114 0.0120313024
117 0.0127056555
120 0.0132672612
123 0.0136982553
126 0.0139845665
129 0.0141166787
132 0.0140901568
135 0.0139058933
138 0.013570059
141 0.0130937592
144 0.0124924246
147 0.0117849812
150 0.0109928633
153 0.0101389395
156 0.0092464284
159 0.0083378727
162 0.007434235
165 0.0065541606
168 0.0057134397
171 0.0049246797
174 0.0041971849
177 0.0035370239
180 0.0029472546
183 0.0024282706
186 0.0019782277
189 0.0015935117
192 0.0012692116
195 0.0009995685
198 0.0007783785
201 0.000599334
204 0.0004562961
207 0.0003434981
210 0.0002556829
213 0.0001881824
216 0.000136948
219 9.8544536E-05
222 7.0114692E-05
225 4.9327066E-05
228 3.4313207E-05
231 2.3601364E-05
234 1.6051391E-05
237 1.0794139E-05
240 7.1773335E-06
243 4.71887E-06
246 3.0676985E-06
249 1.9719101E-06
252 1.2533181E-06
255 7.8765366E-07
258 4.8945081E-07
261 3.0073403E-07
264 1.8270729E-07
267 1.0975617E-07
270 6.5193123E-08
273 3.8289033E-08
276 2.2235494E-08
279 1.2767885E-08
282 7.2492134E-09
285 4.0697018E-09
288 2.2590928E-09
291 1.2399533E-09
294 6.7294001E-10
297 3.6111634E-10
300 1.916098E-10
 Show Left-Side Area Show the likelihood that the SPERT estimate

Planning SPERT SPERT Prob

Most Likely Confidence SPERT SD Estimate Probability 25% 95%
Medium-high confidence 28 160 85.59% 111 176

Normal Distribution Curve

6

8 Can't see the implied probability curve?

On Windows, press CTRL and 6
6 On Macintosh, press ^ and 6
to see the implied probability curve.
4

2 (To avoid toggling the display of Excel objects, first show all Excel hidden objects,
then delete any Excel objects that you don't want to see)
0
3 15 27 39 51 63 75 87 99 111 123 135 147 159 171 183 195 207 219 231 243 255 267 279 291

tisticalpert.com

ased
and/or modify it under the terms of the
either version 3 of the License,

UT ANY WARRANTY;
PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
d that the SPERT estimates will be EQUAL TO or GREATER THAN an uncertainty
SPERT Probabilistic Estimates
90% 85% 80% 75%
166 159 154 149
Statistical PERT® (SPERT®) Normal Edition This is an experime

The starting date for our next release is 10/1/2018

We'll use 2 week sprints
We'll most likely complete about 15 story points (or user stori
We have Medium-low confidence that the most likely outc
In a worst-case scenario, we would complete only 8 story points (or user stori
In a best-case scenario, we might possibly complete 25 story points (or user stori
Our PB or next sprint release represents about 100 story points of effort (or
We want to have 75% confidence in our release
Be sure this indicator is green or yellow → if red, check your inputs
So, on average, we expect each sprint will finish 15.5 story points (or user stori
For this uncertainty, the SPERT standard deviation is 4.6 that is: (MAX - MIN) * SP
Given this, we forecast that we'll complete at least 12.4 story points (or user stori
We'll need 8.1 sprints to do all the work
So, we'll need about 16 business weeks
During this time, there is/are 5 non-working holiday(s) o
In total, the number of days needed are 117 which includes both wor
So, we will complete the next release on 1/26/2019 or earlier, with
75% confidence

Version 2.3 – © 2015-2018, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP

Download more FREE Statistical PERT® templates at https://www.statisticalpert.com
Watch a Pluralsight course on Statistical PERT® Normal Edition
Watch Statistical PERT videos on YouTube
Follow Statistical PERT on Twitter to learn when new updates are released
This spreadsheet file is a free spreadsheet template: you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the
GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License,
or (at your option) any later version.

This spreadsheet is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY;
without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
See the GNU General Public License for more details (http://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
 This is an experimental worksheet for agile team forecasting

week sprints
story points (or user stories or features) per sprint
that the most likely outcome will regularly occur
story points (or user stories or features)
story points (or user stories or features)
story points of effort (or user stories or features)
confidence in our release estimate
if red, check your inputs and ensure this is a bell-shaped uncertainty
story points (or user stories or features) per sprint
that is: (MAX - MIN) * SPERT RSM
story points (or user stories or features) each sprint (for the confidence level expressed in cell C6)
sprints to do all the work of the PB or the next release
business weeks
non-working holiday(s) or days-off
which includes both working + non-working days
or earlier, with
confidence

the terms of the

SPERT Most Likely Subjective Terms RSM Min Most Likely Max
Near certainty 0.07071068 1 98 1
High confidence 0.11380712 3 94 3
Medium-high confidence 0.15690356 5 90 5
Medium confidence 0.2 8 84 8
Medium-low confidence 0.26873397 14 72 14
Low confidence 0.33746795 23 54 23
Guesstimate 0.40620192 33 34 33

-5%
-10%
-15%
These are the Minimum heuristic -20%
percentages used in the 'SPERT Normal (1- -25%
Point entry)' and 'SPERT Normal (Mixed
entry)' worksheets to create a minimum -30%
value for a 3-point estimate. You can add -35%
to, remove, or change this list. -40%
-50%
-60%
-70%

10%
20%
30%
These are the Maximum heuristic 40%
percentages used in the 'SPERT Normal (1- 50%
Point entry)' and 'SPERT Normal (Mixed
entry)' worksheets to create a maximum 75%
value for a 3-point estimate. You can add 100%
to, remove, or change this list. 125%
150%
175%
200%

Choose which side of the normal curve to display

Show Left-Side Area 0 Show the likelihood that the SPERT estimates will be EQUAL TO or GR
Show Right-Side Area 1 Show the likelihood that an uncertainty will EXCEED the SPERT estima

Choose whether to show currency formatting

Show currency formatting 1
Do not show currency formatting 0
Version 2.3 – © 2015-2018, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP
 Dropdown values for the Most Likely Confidence selection
Ratio Scale Multiplier used in the SPERT Standard Deviation formula
Number of trials out of 100, used to create the Most Likely Confidence pie chart

timates will be EQUAL TO or GREATER THAN an uncertainty

y will EXCEED the SPERT estimates below
 HIGHER Confidence MEDIUM Confidence
Standard Devation: 8.48528137 Standard Devation:
Ratio Scale Modifier: 0.07071068 Ratio Scale Modifier:
Mean: 120 Mean:

Minimum Most Likely Maximum Minimum Most Likely

PERT Estimate: 60 120 180 PERT Estimate: 60 120
Distribution: 1 98 1 Distribution: 8 84

1 60 120 180 1 60 120

2 120 2 60 120
3 120 3 60 120
4 120 4 60 120
5 120 5 60 120
6 120 6 60 120
7 120 7 60 120
8 120 8 60 120
9 120 9 120
10 120 10 120
11 120 11 120
12 120 12 120
13 120 13 120
14 120 14 120
15 120 15 120
16 120 16 120
17 120 17 120
18 120 18 120
19 120 19 120
20 120 20 120
21 120 21 120
22 120 22 120
23 120 23 120
24 120 24 120
25 120 25 120
26 120 26 120
27 120 27 120
28 120 28 120
29 120 29 120
30 120 30 120
31 120 31 120
32 120 32 120
33 120 33 120
34 120 34 120
35 120 35 120
36 120 36 120
37 120 37 120
38 120 38 120
39 120 39 120
40 120 40 120
41 120 41 120
42 120 42 120
43 120 43 120
44 120 44 120
45 120 45 120
46 120 46 120
47 120 47 120
48 120 48 120
49 120 49 120
50 120 50 120
51 120 51 120
52 120 52 120
53 120 53 120
54 120 54 120
55 120 55 120
56 120 56 120
57 120 57 120
58 120 58 120
59 120 59 120
60 120 60 120
61 120 61 120
62 120 62 120
63 120 63 120
64 120 64 120
65 120 65 120
66 120 66 120
67 120 67 120
68 120 68 120
69 120 69 120
70 120 70 120
71 120 71 120
72 120 72 120
73 120 73 120
74 120 74 120
75 120 75 120
76 120 76 120
77 120 77 120
78 120 78 120
79 120 79 120
 80 120 80 120
81 120 81 120
82 120 82 120
83 120 83 120
84 120 84 120
85 120 85
86 120 86
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Version 2.3 – © 2015-2018, William W. Davis, MSPM, PMP

Download more FREE Statistical PERT templates at https://www.statisticalpert.com
Watch a Pluralsight course on Statistical PERT® Normal Edition
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This spreadsheet file is a free spreadsheet template: you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the GNU General Public
the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or (at your option) any later version.

This spreadsheet is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of M
FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the GNU General Public License for more details (http://www.gnu.org/licenses/).
UM Confidence LOWER Confidence
24 Standard Devation: 48.7442304
0.2 Ratio Scale Modifier: 0.40620192
120 Mean: 120

Maximum Minimum Most Likely Maximum

180 PERT Estimate: 60 120 180
8 Distribution: 33 34 33

180 1 60 120 180

180 2 60 120 180
180 3 60 120 180
180 4 60 120 180
180 5 60 120 180
180 6 60 120 180
180 7 60 120 180
180 8 60 120 180
9 60 120 180
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24 60 120 180
25 60 120 180
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31 60 120 180
32 60 120 180
33 60 120 180
34 120
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the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by

thout even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or

/www.gnu.org/licenses/).
Date Version
9/22/18 2.3
3/1/17 2.2
2/3/17 2.1
1/12/17 2.0.2
1/3/17 2.0.1
1/1/17 2.0
10/6/16 1.4.1
10/3/16 1.4
9/21/16 1.3a
9/10/16 1.3
7/9/16 1.2
7/3/16 1.1
10/9/15 1.02
9/17/15 1.01
7/31/15 1.00
 Description
Added a new tab "Agile Forecast" for agile team estimation/forecasting
Added new tab 'for Beginners' to make it easy and non-threatening to use Statistical PERT for smart people who don't love stati
Added new tab 'Mixed Mode' allowing manual 3-point entry and/or global or line-level heuristics
Removed the dash to read, "Statistical PERT® Normal Edition" and "SPERT® Normal Edition"
Changed '(1-point entry)' & '(3-point entry)' tabs so cells L104 and L106 only show probabilities when a planning estimate is en
Added: '(1-Point entry)' tab to create 3-pt estimates with heuristics, show left/right side probabilities, enhanced formatting.
Added HTTPS to links. Renamed "SPERT Graphs…" to "SPERT Charts…"
Added a pie chart to 'SPERT Graphs…' worksheet and removed "Unskewed" probabilities which used the mode instead of mea
Changed links to HTTPS, added a SPERT logo to the Welcome tab, and changed pie chart so upperbound is red, lowerbound is g
Added a confidence interval probability and pie chart for all estimated tasks
Added traffic light indicators to check for a valid 3-point estimate and implied bell-shape of the task
Added new worksheet, SPERT Bell-Curve for Task Duration to show the implied, normal bell-shaped curve
Formatting changes for the PMI article on ProjectManagement.com; updated formulas in cols O - T.
Changed formulas in cells M4:M15, N4:N15 so the Most Likely value in column C is > 0 (not > 4)
Initial release