KFC FORECASTING

KFC’s FORECASTING MODEL

The KFC model is comprised of two decision tree-based classifiers: K-FADE [based on shape specificity
features calculated by the Fast-Atomic Density Evaluator, or FADE and K-CON (based on biochemical
contact features). Each decision tree, which provides a set of hierarchical rules for hot spot classification,
was trained by a supervised learning process to recognize the local structural environments that are
indicative of hot spots. In practice, every path through the tree terminates with a prediction/classification
as to whether a residue is a hot spot. The training set used for learning consisted of 249 experimentally
characterized almandine mutations within the interface of 16 no redundant protein complexes. Structures
for each complex were obtained from the Protein Databank (PDB) . For this work, residues were
classified as hot spots if their mutation to almandine resulted in a change of binding energy greater than 2
kcal/mol. The data mining tool C5.0 (Rule quest, St. Ives, Australia) was used to create predictive models
from many different combinations of structurally-derived chemical and physical features that describe the
interface residues, and those that best described the hot spot environment were selected as features for the
K-FADE and K-CON models. K-FADE predicts hot spots using the size of the residue and the radial
distribution of shape specificity and interface points. K-CON predicts hot spots in terms of a residue's;
intermolecular atomic contacts, hydrogen bonds, interface points and chemical type. To validate this
approach, KFC's; ability to predict known hotspots was compared to the Robetta Interface Alanine
Scanning (Robetta-Ala) service, a leading hot spot prediction utility that predicts the G of a residue's;
mutation to alanine. The predictive performance of each method was described in terms of F1 score, a
statistical measure of accuracy balancing precision (the fraction of positive hot spot predictions that are
correct) and recall (the fraction of known hot spots that are predicted)., we have used the F1 score as a
standard measure of predictive accuracy.A cross-validation analysis of the training data showed that KFC
exceeded the predictive accuracy of Robetta-Ala, and a model combining KFC and Robetta-Ala
performed significantly better than Robetta-Ala alone (P = 0.02). The combined model predicts a residue
is a hot spot if either KFC or Robetta-Ala makes a positive prediction. In addition, this result was verified
by using an independent test set of 112 mutations and the final KFC models trained on the full training
set. Again, KFC slightly outperformed Robetta-Ala, and the combination of KFC and Robetta-Ala
achieved a large statistical improvement in predictive accuracy over either individual model (P = 0.0071).
In addition to its high accuracy, KFC is computationally fast. Using common computer hardware, a
typical KFC analysis is complete in less than 2min. Given its speed and accuracy, the KFC model can
support hot spot predictions for multiple users in a server environment.
Yum! Brands, the owner of the KFC and Pizza Hut brands, has reaffirmed its full year 2009 EPS growth
forecast of 12% and expects further growth of beyond 10% in 2010. “2009 has been a year of solid
performance led by our China and Yum! Restaurants International businesses, and we remain on track to
deliver 12% EPS growth,” David Novak, Chairman and CEO, said. “This performance has been driven by
our industry leading international new unit development, favorable commodity costs, productivity gains
across our businesses and a lower effective tax rate.” “Our biggest challenge continues to be driving
same-store-sales growth in the difficult consumer environment. All indications are that 2010 will be
another challenging year, and we have built our plans accordingly.” Next year’s growth is likely to stem
from favorable currency movements, international expansion (1,400 new stores are planned) and
“modest” same-store sales growth
KFC QUALITY MANAGEMENT
Controlling quality in a manufacturing company revolves around understanding consumer
expectations in terms of products or services and what the establishment need to do to meet those
expectations. Total Quality encompasses culture, attitude and organization of an establishment
that intends to provide and persists to provide, its patrons with goods and services that satisfy
their needs. The culture needs quality in all facets of the company operations, desiring to perform
perfection and intolerance of defects. Hence, customer driven quality, top management
leadership and commitment, employee participation, continuous improvement, fast action based
on facts and a Total Quality Management culture.

Managing quality in service business includes the intangibility of service results and the presence
and participation of customers in the creation of service. The way a service process is executed
and service outcome are the two important points of service customers. Consequently, quality
management in services emphasize on both of these factors. For example, Kentucky Fried
Chicken’s management requires to control not only the taste, temperature and fried chicken’s,
but also the courtesy and the speed of service it gives to its patrons.

Kentucky Fried Chicken’s quality management identifies this basic difference by utilizing two
complementary programs for quantifying quantity: The quality service and cleanliness (QSC)
program for judging the quality of service results from the prospective of a patron. The
operations facility review (OFR) program for estimating an establishment’s process
implementation performance against Kentucky fried Chicken’s process specifications. The
outcome of this two quality measurement programs is edited in” Today’s Kentucky Fried
Chicken restaurant quality period report” a quarterly report for senior management at Kentucky
Fried Chicken. Kentucky Fried Chicken often uses customer – and market – oriented surveys to
manage its service quality in order to understand customer’s expectations and to access the
company’s performance against its competitors. The outcome of these surveys is also edited in
the quarterly quality report. In order to achieve its goal, Kentucky Fried Chicken hires a
professional interviewing service to surveys consumers on their impressions of product and
service quality. A consulting firm is also periodically hired to recognize important service
qualities and uses the understanding of consumer expectations in designing and continually
updating its quality assessment schemes. Kentucky Fried Chicken monitor customer complaints
via complaint cards available at all Kentucky Fried Chicken outlets and also through letters and
phone calls from consumers. Kentucky Fried Chicken also record the number and the types of
complaints different restaurants receive.