Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Demand Forecasting (For Students) - V6
Demand Forecasting (For Students) - V6
Actual
Year Month Year Average
Demand
January 437 1
February 605 2
March 722 3
April 893 4
May 901
June 1311
2008
July 1055
August 975
September 822
October 893
November 599
December 608
January 712
February 732
March 829
April 992
May 1148
June 1552
2009
July 927
August 1284
September 1118
October 737
November 983
December 872
January 613
February 984
March 812
April 1218
May 1187
June 1430
2010
July 1392
August 1481
September 940
October 994
November 807
December 527
January 701
February 1291
March 1162
April 1088
May 1497
June 1781
2011
July 1843
August 839
September 1273
October 912
November 996
December 792
Naïve Technique
Actual Naïve Absolute Error Absolute %
Year Month Error
Demand Forecast Error Squared Error
January 437
February 605 437 168 168 28224 28%
March 722 605 117 117 13689 16%
April 893 722 171 171 29241 19%
May 901 893 8 8 64 1%
June 1311 901 410 410 168100 31%
2008 July 1055 1311 -256 256 65536 24%
August 975 1055 -80 80 6400 8%
September 822 975 -153 153 23409 19%
October 893 822 71 71 5041 8%
November 599 893 -294 294 86436 49%
December 608 599 9 9 81 1%
January 712 608 104 104 10816 15%
February 732 712 20 20 400 3%
March 829 732 97 97 9409 12%
April 992 829 163 163 26569 16%
May 1148 992 156 156 24336 14%
June 1552 1148 404 404 163216 26%
2009
July 927 1552 -625 625 390625 67%
August 1284 927 357 357 127449 28%
September 1118 1284 -166 166 27556 15%
October 737 1118 -381 381 145161 52%
November 983 737 246 246 60516 25%
December 872 983 -111 111 12321 13%
January 613 872 -259 259 67081 42%
February 984 613 371 371 137641 38%
March 812 984 -172 172 29584 21%
April 1218 812 406 406 164836 33%
May 1187 1218 -31 31 961 3%
June 1430 1187 243 243 59049 17%
2010
July 1392 1430 -38 38 1444 3%
August 1481 1392 89 89 7921 6%
September 940 1481 -541 541 292681 58%
October 994 940 54 54 2916 5%
November 807 994 -187 187 34969 23%
December 527 807 -280 280 78400 53%
January 701 527 174 174 30276 25%
2011
February 1291 701 590 590 348100 46%
March 1162 1291 -129 129 16641 11%
April 1088 1162 -74 74 5476 7%
May 1497 1088 409 409 167281 27%
June 1781 1497 284 284 80656 16%
2011
July 1843 1781 62 62 3844 3%
August 839 1843 -1004 1004 1008016 120%
September 1273 839 434 434 188356 34%
October 912 1273 -361 361 130321 40%
November 996 912 84 84 7056 8%
December 792 996 -204 204 41616 26%
2012 January 792 -792 792 627264
Tracking
Cum. Error
Signal
2011
April 1088 1051 37 37 1344 3%
May 1497 1180 317 317 100278 21%
June 1781 1249 532 532 283024 30%
2011
July 1843 1455 388 388 150285 21%
August 839 1707 -868 868 753424 103%
September 1273 1488 -215 215 46082 17%
October 912 1318 -406 406 165107 45%
November 996 1008 -12 12 144 1%
December 792 1060 -268 268 72003 34%
2012 January 900 -900 900 810000
ge Technique
Tracking
Cum. Error
Signal
2011
March 1162 864 298 298 88804 26%
April 1088 898 190 190 36252 18%
May 1497 954 543 543 295066 36%
June 1781 1148 633 633 400942 36%
2011
July 1843 1364 479 479 229633 26%
August 839 1474 -635 635 403479 76%
September 1273 1410 -137 137 18660 11%
October 912 1447 -535 535 285797 59%
November 996 1330 -334 334 111289 33%
December 792 1173 -381 381 144856 48%
2012 January
e Technique
Tracking
Cum. Error
Signal
Tracking
Cum. Error
Signal
AF
MAD
MAD = 232 n
MSE = 88412
A F
2
263 1.1 MAPE = 24%
380 1.6 MSE
828 3.6 n
878 3.8 A-F
1004 4.3
A
1248 5.4 MAPE x100
1269 5.5 n
1558 6.7
1682 7.3
1732 7.5
1806 7.8
1934 8.3
2149 9.3
2406 10.4
2921 12.6
3312 14.3
3438 14.8
3550 15.3
3943 17.0
3965 17.1
4029 17.4
4295 18.5
4514 19.5
4552 19.6
4946 21.3
5084 21.9
5393 23.3
5470 23.6
5589 24.1
6093 26.3
6291 27.1
6560 28.3
6922 29.9
6926 29.9
7547 32.5
7747 33.4
7768 33.5
8114 35.0
8588 37.0
8874 38.3
9790 42.2
9845 42.5
10190 43.9
10200 44.0
10434 45.0
F
x100
Three Period Weighted Moving Average Techniqu
PERIOD 1 2 3 Sum
WEIGHTS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0
Tracking
Cum. Error
Signal
Tracking
Cum. Error
Signal
AF
MAD
MAD = 395 n
MSE = 238031
A F
2
MAPE = 46%
MSE
348 0.9 n
490 1.2 A-F
818 2.1
A
1357 3.4 MAPE x100
1762 4.5 n
2443 6.2
2935 7.4
3213 8.1
3399 8.6
3484 8.8
3553 9.0
3671 9.3
4044 10.2
4537 11.5
4705 11.9
5144 13.0
5945 15.1
6400 16.2
6822 17.3
7467 18.9
7594 19.2
7867 19.9
7991 20.2
8005 20.3
8151 20.6
8268 20.9
8396 21.3
9228 23.4
9901 25.1
10683 27.0
11553 29.2
12035 30.5
12328 31.2
12374 31.3
12499 31.6
12689 32.1
12947 32.8
12990 32.9
14137 35.8
14720 37.3
15650 39.6
16286 41.2
16985 43.0
F
x100
Five Period Weighted Moving Average Technique
PERIOD 1 2 3 4 5 Sum
WEIGHTS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tracking
Cum. Error
Signal
A-F
A
x100
n
Exponential Smoothing Technique
Alpha =
A-F
A
x100
n
Exponential Smoothing Technique Using Solver
Alpha =
Tracking
Cum. Error
Signal F_(t+1)= 〖 αA 〗 _t+(1−
α)F_t A F
MAD = MAD
MSE = n
MAPE =
A F
2
MSE
n
A-F
A
MAPE x100
n
〖 αA 〗 _t+(1−
A-F
A
x100
n
Adjusted Exponential Smoothing Technique
Alpha = Beta =
F_(t+1)= 〖 αA 〗 _t+(1−
Absolute Tracking
Cum. Error
% Error Signal T_(t+1)= 〖 β(F 〗 _(t+1 )
MAD = AF
MAD
MSE = n
MAPE =
A F
2
MSE
n
A-F
A
MAPE x100
n
+1)= F_(t+1)+T_(t+1)
December 36 527
January 37 701
February 38 1291
March 39 1162
April 40 1088
May 41 1497
June 42 1781
2011
July 43 1843
August 44 839
September 45 1273
October 46 912
November 47 996
December 48 792
2012 January
Absolute Tracking
Cum. Error
% Error Signal
MAD = AF
MSE =
MAD
n
MAPE =
A F
2
MSE
n
A-F
A
MAPE x100
n
AF
n
A F
2
n
A-F
A
E x100
n
Time Series Methods Analysis
Forecasting Techniques
SMA-5 WMA-3 WMA-3S WMA-5 WMA-5S ES-0.1 ES-0.5 ESS AES AESS
Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast
308 232 1033 395 1040 0 0 0 0 0
129168 88412 1160249 238031 1176790 0 0 0 0 0
31% 24% 100% 46% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
LTL
Min
Forecast
0 0
0 0
0% 0%
Seasonally Adjusted Forecast (SAF)
Year 1 2 3 4
Total Demand
Slope b
Intercept a
Year (2012)
Forecast
Average
Monthly
Forecast
t (SAF)