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Investment Final
Investment Final
FINANCE DEPARTMENT
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CATEGORY........................................................................................................................... 1
CATEGORY OF TABLES......................................................................................................2
I. GENERAL ECONOMIC INFLUENCES:......................................................................3
1. Macro factors:............................................................................................................3
1.1 Economic growth:..................................................................................................3
1.2 Political risk:..........................................................................................................4
2. Economic situation in Viet Nam:...............................................................................4
2.1 The growth of rate:.................................................................................................5
2.2 Inflation:................................................................................................................. 5
2.3 Comsumer price index:...........................................................................................6
3. Industry analysis :......................................................................................................6
3.1 Consumer goods industry ( Drinks ):......................................................................6
3.2 Real estate :............................................................................................................7
II. COMPANY ANALYSIS :...............................................................................................8
1. 1, Vingroup - Joint Stock Company...........................................................................8
1.1 Overview:............................................................................................................... 8
1.2 Development history:.............................................................................................9
1.3 Area of opeations:................................................................................................10
1.4 Shareholder Structure:..........................................................................................10
1.5 Business activities:...............................................................................................10
1.6 Competitors:.........................................................................................................11
1.7 Analyzing financial status:...................................................................................11
2. SAB Coperation:......................................................................................................13
2.1 Overview:.............................................................................................................13
2.2 Development history:...........................................................................................13
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2.3 Area of opeations:................................................................................................14
2.4 Framework of organization:.................................................................................14
2.5 Business activities:...............................................................................................14
2.6 The competitor:....................................................................................................14
2.7 Company’s postion:..............................................................................................15
2.8 Analyzing financial status:...................................................................................15
III. RESOLVE THE SITUATION:....................................................................................17
1. Collecting the datas of two stocks from 1/1/2018 to 31/08/2019.............................17
2. Calculate daily rate of return:...................................................................................18
3. Calculate the expected rate of return:.......................................................................18
4. Calculate the covariance and correlation:................................................................18
5. Draw the minimum variance frontier and point out the efficient frontier:...............20
5.1 Draw the minimum variance frontier:..................................................................20
5.2 Point out the efficient frontier:.............................................................................20
6. If you had 100 million dong, how would you invest?..............................................20
REFERENCE MATERIAL...................................................................................................22
CATEGORY OF TABLES
2
I. GENERAL ECONOMIC INFLUENCES:
1. Macro factors:
The stronger growth recorded from January to March was an unexpected development after
an increase of 2.2 percent in the last quarter of 2018. However, the numbers underlying this
topline growth tell a more nuanced story. Growth was fueled largely by higher state and
local government spending, private inventory investment, and exports. Consumer spending
and business investment — large components of GDP growth — were weak.
3
an annual report by a bipartisan congressional panel. This has a great influence on the
world economic situation because these are the two most powerful powers. However, it
also creates benefit conditions for developing countries to attract foreign investment and
develop other business areas such as real estate, services, manufacturing consumer
goods…
- In 2019 is the first year the main growth motivation has come from the processing
and manufacturing sector. The share of exports and investment of the domestic
private sector has also increased ... Vietnam maintains the highest growth rate in
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ASEAN and is among the best growing economies in Asia. Those are very important
and not easy results. Regarding the vision for 2020 and the years to come, the goal of
maintaining a 6.8% growth rate is very difficult in the context that the world economy
and trade are slowing down and it is predicted that it is likely to reach the threshold of
decline. global regression
2.2 Inflation:
- Inflation in the first quarterly 2019 increased by 1.92% with 2018.
- The implementation of strict, flexible and effective monetary policy, coordinated
synchronously with fiscal policy, trade, investment, prices, markets has contributed
significantly to control inflation under the title. out. Stable exchange rates, interest
rates tended to decrease in line with inflation, creating favorable conditions for
production and business.
3. Industry analysis :
3.1 Consumer goods industry ( Drinks ):
- The index about value, price, profitability, strong finance, manage efficient of drinks
industry are summarized in the table below:
Industry statistics
Valuation
P/E 18,67
P/B 3,65
P/S 1,79
Profitability
Coupon rate 16,43%
EBIT ratio 1343,96%
Profit from operating activities -3187,7%
Net profit ratio -2033,68%
Financial strength
Quick payment ratio 1,42
Current payment ratio 2,09
Long-term liability/equity 0,1
Total debt/Equity 0,84
5
Manage efficient
ROA 7,81%
ROE 13,97%
ROIC 9,99%
Table 2: Industry statistics of consumer goods of industry ( Drinks)
- P/E represents the price at which investors are willing to pay for a share of earnings
from stocks. P/E equal 18,67 means high P / E ratio reflects investors expectation that
the income growth from that stock will be higher in the future.
- Quick payment ratio is 1,42>1, This demonstrate ability to pay off debt well in the
short term.
- Current payment ratio= 2,09. A high ratio indicates a good solvency for the company
and is also true in long term(long term liability/ equity=0,1 that is quite low). This
small ratio proves that enterprises are less dependent on capital mobilization by debt;
may imply that the business is subject to low risk.
- Return on asset and return on equity are also high , 7.81% and 13.97% respectively.
- As the result, investor can consider to invest in short term and long term.
- Today, the real estate industry is one of the most lucrative sectors of the U.S economy
in particular, of global economy in general. It continues to provide opportunities for
interested and motivated individuals. Since many professions within real estate are
based on sales, success depends on effort. This is an industry for hardworking, goal-
oriented people who are always ready to take on more. However, the hard-charging
lifestyle is balanced by some flexibility: Those who succeed in the real estate industry
often set their own hours, are not limited by a fixed salary, and can be their own boss.
Industry statistics
Valuation
P/E 23,03
P/B 2,66
P/S 3,08
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Profitability
Coupon rate 31,17%
EBIT ratio 55,64%
Profit from operating activity -49,66%
Net profit ratio 43,40%
Financial strength
Quick payment ratio 2,33
Current payment ratio 3,01
Long-term liability/equity 0,3
Total debt/Equity 3,19
Manage efficient
ROA 5,96%
ROE 17,47%
ROIC 5,7%
Table 3 Industry statistics of real estate
- P/E equal 23,03 means high P / E ratio reflects investors expectation that the income
growth from that stock will be higher in the future.
- Quick payment ratio is 2,33>1, This reflects the company's ability to pay off its
liabilities with short-term assets that can be converted into cash quickly.
- Current payment ratio= 3,01. A high ratio indicates a good solvency for the company
- Long term liability/ equity equal 0,3 and total debt/ equity equal 3,19. This
demonstrate that short term debt is quite high.
- Return on asset and return on equity are also high , 5,96% and 17,41% respectively.
- As the result, investor can consider to invest in long term.
- Website vingroup.net
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- Established August 8, 1993; 26 years ago
- Founders: Pham Nhat Vuong, Le Viet Lam, Pham Thuy Hang, Pham Thu Huong,
Nguyen Huong Lan, Tran Minh Son, Nguyen Thuy Ha.
- Head office No. 7, Bang Lang 1 Street, Vinhomes Riverside, Viet Hung Ward, Long
Bien District, Hanoi
- Products: Vinhomes, Vin City, Happy Town, Vincom, Vin Office, Vinpearl, Vinpearl
Land, Vinpearl Golf, Vinpearl Luxury, Vintata, Vinpearl Hotels & Resort, Vinpearl
Discovery, VinOasis, Vinpearl Safari, VinMart & VinMart +, VinPro, Adayroi.com ,
VinFast, VinSmart, VinMec, VinFa, Vin DS, Vinschool, VinUniversity, VinEco,
VinTech, Vincom Retail, Vinpearl Safari, Vinpearl Air, Vin ID, Vin ID Pay, VinBus,
Vin KE, Vincharm, ALMAZ.
- Revenue increased by VND 122,575 billion (2018)
- Real interest: Increase VND 5,815 billion (2018)
- Total assets Increase VND 289,105 billion (2018)
- 11/2013: Launched Vinhomes brand, a line of luxury housing real estate services.
- 1/2015: Establishing VinDS, a company that operates retail chains of sports goods
(Sports World), footwear (ShoeCenter), cosmetics (BeautyZone), fashion (Fashion
MegaStore).
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1.3 Area of opeations:
- Vingroup is one of Asia's largest multidisciplinary private economic groups with a
market capitalization of nearly US $ 16 billion. The Group operates in 3 core business
areas, including:
+ Technology
+ Industry
+ Trade in Services
10
Financial
3,786,983,558,714 4,908,949,587,074 22.86%
expenses
General and
Administrative 6,852,447,761,955 7,367,839,332,550 7.00%
expenses
VIC's net revenue of sales and service in 2017 reached 89.350 billions VND but then
increased dramatically to 121.894 billions VND. Along with the increase in sales, there were
the growth in its cost of goods sold by 32.46% , so gross profit went up slightly to 8.19%.
Income from financial activities of VIC also went up over 6 times from 1.63 billions VND
to 7.47 billions VND, the reason of which mainly came from the liquidation of financial
investments and transfer of subsidiaries. Therefore, the profit before tax and increased
significantly from 9.114 billions VND to 13.853 billions VND. In short, thanks to incomes
from operating and financing activities increased significantly and expenses increased
slowtly , the profit increased in this period.
Profitability ratios
11
Comments:
- VIC's ROA in 2017 is 30.82%, it means that for every 100 assets, the company created
30.82 earnings per share. While the average ROA of the industry is 5,96%, this proves
that VCF had a higher return on its peers. In 2018, ROA ratio decreased slightly to
20.90%
- VIC's ROE in 2017 was 11,71%, which means that for every 100 of equity capital, PHR
made 11,71 profit after tax for shareholders. Although there was a slight increased to
11,78% in the following year, VIC’s ROE also higher than average rate of industry.
- VIC's EPS in 2017 was 1.82 VND/share and then gone down to 1.27 VND/share.
Turnover ratios
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2. SAB Coperation:
2.1 Overview:
Compay’s English name: Saigon Beer – Alcohol – Beverage Corporation.
Telephone: (08) 3829 6342 – 3829 4081 – 3829 4083 Fax: (08) 3829 6856
Website: www.sabeco.com.vn
Chartered Capital: 6.412.811.860.000 VND
2.2 Development history:
- Saigon Brewery, was established on 05.17.1977 under Decision No. 854 / foodstuff
by the Minister of Food and Food. After that, implementing the State's policy on
reorganizing production and business in the state economic sector, on September 14,
1993, the Minister of Light Industry issued Decision No. 882 / QD-TCCB. the State
enterprise and renamed Saigon Beer company.
- On December 28, 2007, the Prime Minister issued Decision No. 1862 / QD-TTg
approving the plan and transforming Saigon Beer - Alcohol - Beverage Corporation
into the Beer Joint Stock Corporation - Alcohol - Saigon beverage.
- On September 20, 2016, the Ministry of Industry and Trade issued Document No.
8845 / BCT-CNN approving the proposal to list SABECO shares on the Ho Chi Minh
Stock Exchange. Ho Chi Minh City.
- On October 20, 2016, SABECO's General Meeting of Shareholders issued Resolution
No. 62/2016 / NQ-DHDCD approving the listing of SABECO's shares at Ho Chi
Minh Stock Exchange. Ho Chi Minh City.
2.3 Area of opeations:
Sabeco is a large corporation operating mainly in the field of beer, wine and soft drinks
in the territory of Vietnam.
1.1 Shareholder Structure:
On October 6,2016, the company has 1,227 shareholders of which 01 major shareholder
(State shareholder: Ministry of Industry and Trade) holds 574,519,134 shares, accounting
for 89.59%; Domestic shareholders hold 581,056,097 shares, accounting for 90.61%;
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Foreign shareholders hold 60,225,089 shares, accounting for 9.39%.
SAB’s net revenue of sales and service increased with 1,755 bilions in 2018. The reason
effect on the declined of gross profit that is the increased of cost of goods sold might the
affect of cost management or cost of selling. Income from financial activities increased by
65,42% while the general and administraive expenses and selling declined by 2,55% and
2,93% respectively.Therefor, the profit before tax and net profit after tax has decreased.
+ Profitability:
15
XIndicators Year 2017 Year 2018
Total assets and Equity both increased in 2018. ROA, ROE (ROA was 100 VND of assets,
generating 22.48 VND of profit in 2017 and 19.68 VND 2018, ROE was 100 VND of capital
generated 34,32 VND in 2017, 27.33 in 2018) While capital and assets increased, ROA and
ROE still decreased, the main reason was the declined of net revenue and inefficient use of
assets and capital lead to EPS declined. Conclusion, ROA,ROE of SAB’s company still
higher than ROA,ROE of industry (7,75% &17,44%)
+ Solvency:
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Comments:
- The current ratio > 1 and increased over 2 years. Therefor, The company have ability
to pay short-term debts (such as debts and payables) with its short-term assets, such
as cash, accounts receivable, and inventories).
- The Quick Ratio < 1 It’s mean that the company's financial situation is in a weak
state, unable to pay off short-term debts immediately. However, 2018 have a mark to
rose up which was SAB’s had strategy to improve the activities of company.
- Cash Ratio < 1 it’s mean that the ability of payments such as debt, current liabilities
by cash decreased and not enough to pay short-term debt.
+ Performance:
- Total assets turnover in 2017 was 1,553, this means 1 asset generated 1,553 revenue
unit. But then this rate increased to 1,607 in 2018. The reason of this was because the
speed of total revenue in 2018 went up dramatically than one’s total asset. Other
while, net sales from good and services dropped the number of customers debt tend to
went up, so account receivable turnover went down from 47,8 to 46,95.
- Inventory turnover in 2018 increased slightly, compared to 2017 (from 17,0665 to
19,81)
Using the websites https://vietstock.vn/ to collect the datas of two stocks which named SAB,
VIC and that of VNINDEX from 1/1/2018 to 31/08/2019.
+ According to the equation below and the data of historical closed prices:
17
Belong to two stocks, we estimated the daily rate of return.
P ( t+1 )−P(t)
R (t)=
P (t)
Pt: Price of stock in t,
Pt+1: Price of stock in t+1,
Rt: Rate of return of stock in t.
Data covers the period from 1/1/2018 to 31/08/2019, including 412 days trading (n=412)
412
∑ R(t )
1
E( R)=
412
412
∑ A2
A=R ( t )−E (RVIC ), σ 2 = 1
412−1
∑ B2
B=R ( t )−E ( RSAB ) , σ 2 = 1
412−1
σ =√ σ 2
412
∑ (A∗B)
1
Cov( R VIC , R SAB)=
412−1
Covariance 0,000051
0,157382981
Correlation
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5. Draw the minimum variance frontier and point out the efficient frontier:
5.1 Draw the minimum variance frontier:
Draw the minimum variance frontier by using Expect return and Standard Deviation of
tagency portfolio. Vertical show expect return and horizontal show Standard Deviation.
σ 2P= √ w 2VIC∗σ 2VIC +w 2SAB∗σ 2SAB +2W VIC W SAB σ VIC , SAB
- Step 2: Point out the efficient frontier: upper half of minimum variance frontier.
0.001400
EXPECTED RETURN
0.001200
0.001000
0.000800 EF
0.000600 CAL
Risk free rate
0.000400
Tangency portfolio
0.000200 GMV portfolio
0.000000
0.000000 0.010000 0.020000 0.030000
STANDARD DEVIATION
E ( R P )−R F
S=
σP
3.55
Risk free asset return is 3.55% per year => Daily return: ≈ 0.000099
360
20
Suposse that “y” is the weight of tangency portfolio; (1-y) is the weight of risk free
asset; C: is the completed portfolio.
U=E ( R C )−0.5 A σ 2C
With:
E ( RC ) =w p E ( R p ) + w F R F
σC = y σP
Therefore, we have:
2
U= y E ( R p ) +(1− y ) R F −0.5 A( y σ P )
y ≈ 0.563824788
In conclusion, the weight of tangency portfolio is 0.563824788 , the weight of risk free
asset is 0.436175212. And if we had 100 million dong, we should invest
Amount of money
VIC 51.87188052
invest in tangency
56.38247882
portfolio (million
SAB 4.510598306
VND)
Amount of money
invest in risk free asset 43.61752118
(million VND)
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REFERENCE MATERIAL
https://vietstock.vn/
http://cafef.vn/
https://www.gso.gov.vn/default.aspx?
tabid=621&ItemID=18668&fbclid=IwAR2OCIDSNBcWhAiNNc0YooNDnAbk3Fvz498Jvn-
o4qwTU-F6xA3-9739O2o
https://www.stockbiz.vn/IndustryOverview.aspx?
Code=3500&fbclid=IwAR20lI_dlFOLvLxAvZpebpzorlKLTMmvJCsOl5MTDNOQUjbdMpOw-
6xKhLU
https://www.stockbiz.vn/IndustryOverview.aspx?
Code=8630&fbclid=IwAR2KSos4w2J4IPcmAMe9q6QvMnjIutJ2k6nGclgcKVDK7RYQXcb3VrhT-
RU
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