FANTASY AUTO RACING 2010
QUALIFICATION NOTES
KOBALT TOOLS 500k
Nothing's Granted play out that way. Alan Kulwicki
won the inaugural races in 1988
after rolling off the grid 21st, and
In the valley of the sun, qualifi- eight of the first 11 races were
cation rain outs are rare. won from outside of the top 10.
Five of the next eight races on
In fact, time trials have been this track were also won from
canceled at Phoenix Interna- outside that mark, so the trend
tional Raceway only one time continued into 2006.
previously in the fall 2007 race.
Jimmie Johnson won that event In fall of that season, Kevin
after starting sixth, but the pole
sitter Carl Edwards was not
Harvick won after starting sec-
ond. Jeff Gordon won from the
quite as lucky; he blew an en- Pole the following spring and
gine and finished 42nd, so the since then, conventional wisdom
reviews were mixed about has been served. A Cup race at
whether starting up front was Phoenix has been won from the
beneficial. During NASCAR's next Pole only three times and all of
trip to the track Ryan Newman those occurrences have come
fell from the pole to finish dead
Number of Wins from Start
last. That doesn't exactly rise
to the level of a Pole Curse, but
it is something that should be
Start Wins
noted.
1 3 11%
In modern day NASCAR, noth- 2 3 11% 21%
ing can be taken for granted. 3 4 14%
Drivers and teams are forced to 5 0 0% 36%
push the limits during every lap 6 2 7%
of competition, which leaves 7 1 4%
them wide open for mistakes 9 1 4%
10 0 0% 50%
to happen-either own, or of
11 2 7%
someone else's making. 12 1 4%
13 2 7%
Accepted logic would suggest 14 2 7%
that qualification should be ex- 15 2 7%
tremely important at Phoenix. 17 1 4%
This is a short track and short 19 1 4%
race, so track position from the 21 1 4%
drop of the green flag should be 28 1 4%
critical, but it doesn't always 29 1 4%
2010 FANTASY AUTO RACING:QUALIFICATION
BY DAN BEAVER
since Gordon first did it in 2007.
Johnson repeated the feat the
following fall and his teammate
Mark Martin won from the pole
in his first Phoenix start with
Hendrick Motorsports, which
means that this organization is
also the only team to have won
the Pole and race in the same
weekend.
Group A
Carl Edwards (11%)
Starts: Pole
Avg. Fin from this position: 13.25
Top-fives from position +/-3*: 28%
Top-10s from position+/-3*:
Avg. Start: 12.67
Avg. Fin: 12.75
Attempts: 12
Diff: -0.08
Best prior start: first (2007)
Best Fin: fourth (3x) ^
During his media availability this
week, Edwards was as confi-
dent as we've seen him in re-
cent weeks. Now that the pres-
sure of winning the Chase is off
his shoulders, it's time to let it
all hang out and that could
make him a big threat on Sun-
day even if the short, flat tracks
haven't been particularly kind to
Roush-Fenway Racing.
Edwards hopes that this year's
1
 FANTASY AUTO RACING 2010
QUALIFICATION NOTES: KOBALT TOOLS 500k
Pole is more rewarding than the tions from start to finish. Avg. Fin from this position: 23.32
last time he started first by ben- Top-fives from position +/-3*: 10%
efit of NASCAR's rule book in ^Wins in 2007, both 2008 races Top-10s from position+/-3*: 12%
2007. He blew an engine that and 2009.
week and finished second-to- Avg. Start: 8.96
last. Jeff Gordon (33%) Avg. Fin: 10.39
Attempts: 23
^ Fourth-place finishes in 2006 Starts: 22nd Diff: -1.43
and both 2008 races.

Dan Beaver's selections:

Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin.
Average Start vs. Average Finish - Career
More than one attempt
Jimmie Johnson (55%)
Driver Avg Fin Avg Start Starts Diff
Starts: 21st
Jeff Burton 11.41 23.64 22 12.23
Avg. Fin from this position: 22.64 Travis Kvapil 25.71 34.14 7 8.43
Top-fives from position +/-3*: 11% Terry Labonte 14.71 22.94 17 8.24
Top-10s from position+/-3*: 14% Jimmie Johnson 4.93 11.00 14 6.07
Tony Raines 29.63 34.75 8 5.13
Clint Bowyer 14.90 19.90 10 5.00
Avg. Start: 11.00
Marcos Ambrose 13.50 18.00 4 4.50
Avg. Fin: 4.93 Joey Logano 17.33 21.33 3 4.00
Attempts: 14 Bobby Labonte 18.17 22.17 23 4.00
Diff: +6.07 David Ragan 24.86 28.86 7 4.00
Best prior start: Pole (2008) David Gilliland 28.00 31.88 8 3.88
Kevin Harvick 15.00 18.73 15 3.73
Best Fin: first (4x) ^ Matt Kenseth 18.19 21.63 16 3.44
Mark Martin 8.67 11.67 27 3.00
Johnson has never finished worse Sam Hornish Jr 21.17 23.33 6 2.17
Juan Montoya 17.14 19.29 7 2.14
than 15th on this track, but his
Tony Stewart 11.71 13.82 17 2.12
starts have been all over the Robby Gordon 27.56 29.25 16 1.69
board. With three qualifications Kurt Busch 13.53 14.27 15 0.73
outside the top 15 in 14 efforts, David Reutimann 18.83 19.50 6 0.67
he hasn't exactly made a career Kyle Busch 13.91 14.55 11 0.64
Carl Edwards 12.75 12.67 12 -0.08
out of coming from the back of Denny Hamlin 11.60 11.40 10 -0.20
the pack, but that does indicate Greg Biffle 15.38 14.31 13 -1.08
he is comfortable in traffic. Jeff Gordon 10.39 8.96 23 -1.43
Brad Keselowski 26.50 24.00 2 -2.50
Elliott Sadler 26.88 24.35 17 -2.53
There is a lot of pressure on
Paul Menard 25.00 22.14 7 -2.86
Johnson; for the first time at this Jamie McMurray 20.93 18.00 14 -2.93
stage of the season, he trails in Bill Elliott 22.55 19.00 20 -3.55
the points and Denny Hamlin is Jason Leffler 33.67 30.00 3 -3.67
going to be incredibly difficult to Martin Truex Jr 15.67 12.00 9 -3.67
Regan Smith 28.00 24.00 4 -4.00
catch on this short, flat track, but Dale Earnhardt Jr 18.75 14.44 16 -4.31
one thing is relatively certain. Joe Nemechek 26.57 21.71 21 -4.86
Johnson should finish better than A J Allmendinger 19.75 13.75 4 -6.00
he starts-and he should improve Mike Bliss 33.00 27.00 5 -6.00
Dave Blaney 27.47 21.27 15 -6.20
significantly. He's only fallen back
Kasey Kahne 20.75 12.83 12 -7.92
from his grid position twice dur- Scott Speed 32.00 23.75 4 -8.25
ing his Phoenix career and he's Casey Mears 27.25 19.00 12 -8.25
never lost more than five posi- Ryan Newman 21.31 11.44 16 -9.88

2010 FANTASY AUTO RACING:QUALIFICATION 2

 FANTASY AUTO RACING 2010
QUALIFICATION NOTES: KOBALT TOOLS 500k
Where the Winner has Started
Season Race Driver Start Season Race Driver Start

2010 Subway Fresh Fit 600k Ryan Newman 14 2000 Checker Auto Parts 500k Jeff Burton 2
2009 Checker Auto Parts 500k Jimmie Johnson 3 1999 Checker Auto Parts 500k Tony Stewart 11
2009 Subway Fresh Fit 500k Mark Martin 1 1998 Dura Lube Kmart 500k Rusty Wallace 6
2008 Checker Auto Parts 500k Jimmie Johnson 1 1997 Dura Lube 500k Dale Jarrett 9
2008 Subway Fresh Fit 500k Jimmie Johnson 7 1996 Dura Lube 500k Bobby Hamilton Sr 17
2007 Checker Auto Parts 500k Jimmie Johnson 6* 1995 Dura Lube 500k Ricky Rudd 29
2007 Subway Fresh Fit 500k Jeff Gordon 1 1994 Slick 50 500k Terry Labonte 19
2006 Checker Auto Parts 500k Kevin Harvick 2 1993 Slick 50 500k Mark Martin 3
2006 Subway Fresh 500k Kevin Harvick 15 1992 Pyroil 500k Davey Allison 12
2005 Checker Auto Parts 500k Kyle Busch 15 1991 Pyroil 500k Davey Allison 13
2005 Subway Fresh 500k Kurt Busch 2 1990 Checker 500k Dale Earnhardt 3
2004 Checker Auto Parts 500k Dale Earnhardt Jr 14 1989 Autoworks 500k Bill Elliott 13
2003 Checker Auto Parts 500k Dale Earnhardt Jr 11 1988 Checker 500k Alan Kulwicki 21
2002 Checker Auto Parts 500k Matt Kenseth 28 * Race set by NASCAR's rule book
2001 Checker Auto Parts 500k Jeff Burton 3

Best prior start: Pole (3x) ^ Lineup Attempts: 14

Best Fin: first (2007)
Gordon's career at Phoenix has
been up and down. In light of that,
and considering how frustrated
he's becoming with a winless sea-
son looming, the smart money
says that he should be avoided
this week. And the fact that he is
only on a third of your provisional
rosters this week does not ex-
actly inspire confidence in the ca-
sual fan.
It is impossible to determine
where Gordon will finish based on
his starting position. Statistically,
he's just as likely to drop back
through the field as he is to move
forward. He's advanced his quali-
fication effort 11 times, fallen back
11 times and won from the Pole
on one occasion. Top-10 starts
have ended in catastrophe and
top-five finishes have come when
he's started mid-pack. The real
question that needs to be an-
swered this week is whether his
luck is going to change, and you
won't know that until the end of
the weekend.
Diff: -2.93
1. Carl Edwards Best prior start: second (2x) ^
3. Kurt Busch Best Fin: third (2008)
4. Greg Biffle
7. Kyle Busch This is the fifth time McMurray
17. Denny Hamlin has earned a top-10 starting
20. Tony Stewart position at Phoenix. That is the
21. Jimmie Johnson good news-the bad news is that
22. Jeff Gordon his top-10 finishes have been
28. Mark Martin much rarer. McMurray is a sen-
35. Juan Montoya timental favorite, but he has
only finished with the leaders on
* This is the percentage of top- one occasion. A third in 2008 is
fives or -10s that have come encouraging, but it is not enough
from drivers who have previ- of an incentive to activate him
ously started in this position, on Sunday.
(plus three spots ahead and
three spots behind that position), ^ Second-place starts in 2007
shown as a percentage of the and 2008.
total such results earned at this
track in Cup competition. Dan Beaver's selections:
Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano,
Group B Clint Bowyer, and Jamie
McMurray.
Jamie McMurray (41%) Kevin Harvick (49%)
Starts: fifth Starts: 29th
Avg. Fin from this position: 15.55 Avg. Fin from this position: 23.48
Top-fives from position +/-3*: 42% Top-fives from position +/-3*: 6%
Top-10s from position+/-3*: 32% Top-10s from position+/-3*: 9%

^ Poles in 2005, 2006, and 2007. Avg. Start: 18.00 Avg. Start: 18.73
Avg. Fin: 20.93 Avg. Fin: 15.00

2010 FANTASY AUTO RACING:QUALIFICATION 3

 FANTASY AUTO RACING 2010
QUALIFICATION NOTES: KOBALT TOOLS 500k
Where the Pole Winner has Finished
Season Race Driver Finish Season Race Driver Finish

2010 Subway Fresh Fit 600k A J Allmendinger 15 2000 Checker Auto Parts 500k Rusty Wallace 4
2009 Checker Auto Parts 500k Martin Truex Jr. 5 1999 Checker Auto Parts 500k John Andretti 8
2009 Subway Fresh Fit 500k Mark Martin 1 1998 Dura Lube Kmart 500k Ken Schrader 22
2008 Checker Auto Parts 500k Jimmie Johnson 1 1997 Dura Lube 500k Bobby Hamilton Sr. 3
2008 Subway Fresh Fit 500k Ryan Newman 43 1996 Dura Lube 500k Bobby Labonte 9
2007 Checker Auto Parts 500k Carl Edwards 42 1995 Dura Lube 500k Bill Elliott 14
2007 Subway Fresh Fit 500k Jeff Gordon 1 1994 Slick 50 500k Sterling Marlin 3
2006 Checker Auto Parts 500k Jeff Gordon 4 1993 Slick 50 500k Bill Elliott 5
2006 Subway Fresh 500k Kyle Busch 36 1992 Pyroil 500k Rusty Wallace 28
2005 Checker Auto Parts 500k Denny Hamlin 13 1991 Pyroil 500k Geoff Bodine 8
2005 Subway Fresh 500k Jeff Gordon 12 1990 Checker 500k Rusty Wallace 38
2004 Checker Auto Parts 500k Ryan Newman 2 1989 Autoworks 500k Ken Schrader 13
2003 Checker Auto Parts 500k Ryan Newman 3 1988 Checker 500k Geoff Bodine 6
2002 Checker Auto Parts 500k Ryan Newman 18 * Race set by NASCAR's rule book
2001 Checker Auto Parts 500k Casey Atwood 14

Attempts: 15
Diff: +3.73
Best prior start: Outside Pole (2006)
Best Fin: first (2x) ^
When we said in the preview that
NASCAR could not have asked for
a better track to contest the
Championship with two races re-
maining, that was not simply hy-
perbole. Hamlin is a flat track
master; Johnson has won four
races in short order, and Harvick
was all but perfect in 2006 when
he swept the Cup races and nearly
doubled down in Nationwide com-
petition as well.
Since then, his fortune hasn't been
nearly as solid. Prior to this week-
end, he hasn't started better than
24th or finished inside the top 10
in his last three attempts, but his
previous records haven't meant
anything so far this year and a
#th-place qualification effort is not
likely to keep him from running in
the top 10 on Sunday.
^ Swept the races in 2006.
Clint Bowyer (47%)
Starts: 14th
Avg. Fin from this position: 17.79
Top-fives from position +/-3*: 19%
Top-10s from position+/-3*: 24%
Avg. Start: 19.90
Avg. Fin: 14.90
Attempts: 10
Diff: +5.00
Best prior start: eighth (2006)
Best Fin: second (2008)
Bowyer is racing for pride. After
getting docked 150 points by
NASCAR to start the Chase in a
hole, his first goal was to climb
out of the basement, which he
finally accomplished last week
after finishing seventh on the
heels of a victory at Talladega
SuperSpeedway. The short, flat
tracks have been kind to him in
recent seasons and it should not
go unnoticed that his fine was
incurred on another minimally-
banked one-mile oval in New
Hampshire Motor Speedway af-
ter he won that race.
It would send a strong message
if he could get to victory lane
again and that is not entirely out
of the question. You won't get
any clues based on his qualifica-
tion effort, however. Prior to this
weekend, he's started with the
leaders only once before (in
2006 when he qualified eighth)
and while that effort netted a
top-five finish, his career best
result of second came after he
started 24th.
Matt Kenseth (44%)
Starts: 15th
Avg. Fin from this position: 15.68
Top-fives from position +/-3*: 18%
Top-10s from position+/-3*: 24%
Avg. Start: 21.63
Avg. Fin: 18.19
Attempts: 16
Diff: +3.44
Best prior start: fourth (2006)
Best Fin: first (2002)
As with most tracks, Kenseth is
a terrible qualifier at Phoenix and
he has been forced to come
from the back of the pack in half
of his attempts. All things con-
sidered, he will be happy with
his lap of 135.084 that allows
him to roll off the grid mid-pack.
In 16 previous races, he's quali-
fied outside the top 20 seven
times while starting in the top

2010 FANTASY AUTO RACING:QUALIFICATION 4


QUALIFICATION NOTES: KOBALT TOOLS 500k
10 only twice. However, one
can't exactly say that he has
made a career out of coming
to the front at Phoenix. He may
have seven top-10s, all of which
are sixth or better, but this
ranks as only his 19th-best
track in terms of average re-
sults and there are less than a
handful of venues where he is
worse.
Ryan Newman (43%)
Starts: 18th
Avg. Fin from this position: 18.75
Top-fives from position +/-3*: 15%
Top-10s from position+/-3*: 19%
Avg. Start: 11.44
Avg. Fin: 21.31
Attempts: 16
Diff: -9.88
Best prior start: Pole (4x) ^
Best Fin: first (2010)
Given how strong Newman
typically is in qualification, it
never comes as a surprise when
he is regularly one of the driv-
ers who looses spots on aver-
age during a race. However,
when he is at the very bottom
of the grid, it causes some con-
cern. With an average drop of
nearly 10 spots per race, there
are no drivers who are worse
and very few who are anywhere
near as bad.
Of course, those stats didn't
keep Newman from taking ad-
vantage of a late-race restart
to rocket past Jeff Gordon this
spring during a green-white-
For Weekend Newsbreakers, Subscribe to Dan Beaver’s Twitter Feed:
https://twitter.com/fantasyrace
checkered overtime, so it is im-
possible to completely discount
his chances. Still with an aver-
age finish of 21st and six races
during which he's finished worse,
it's hard to recommend him.
Poles in 2002, 2003, 2004, and
2008.
Lineup
5. Jamie McMurray
6. David Reutimann
10. Joey Logano
11. Martin Truex Jr.
12. David Ragan
13. Marcos Ambrose
14. Clint Bowyer
15. Matt Kenseth
18. Ryan Newman
23. Elliott Sadler
25. Kasey Kahne
29. Kevin Harvick
30. Brad Keselowski
31. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
40. Jeff Burton
* This is the percentage of top-
fives or -10s that have come
from drivers who have previ-
ously started in this position,
(plus three spots ahead and
three spots behind that position),
shown as a percentage of the
total such results earned at this
track in Cup competition.
Group C
A.J. Allmendinger (37%)
Starts: Outside Pole
Avg. Fin from this position: 14.21
2010 FANTASY AUTO RACING:QUALIFICATION
FANTASY AUTO RACING 2010
Top-fives from position +/-3*: 34%
Top-10s from position+/-3*: 26%
Avg. Start: 13.75
Avg. Fin: 19.75
Attempts: 4
Diff: -6.00
Best prior start: Pole (2010)
Best Fin: 13th (2009)
Allmendinger was one of the feel
good stories this spring when he
won the Pole. He finished strong
as well and finished in the top
15 for the second consecutive
time. For several weeks, we've
been saying that Allmendinger
is a good value if you have allo-
cations remaining and that is still
the case. If he's an option, start
the driver of the No. 43 with
confidence.
Dan Beaver's selections: Aric
Almirola and Sam Hornish Jr..
Sam Hornish Jr. (43%)
Starts: 16th
Avg. Fin from this position: 19.54
Top-fives from position +/-3*: 16%
Top-10s from position+/-3*: 23%
Avg. Start: 23.33
Avg. Fin: 21.17
Attempts: 6
Diff: +2.17
Best prior start: third (2010)
Best Fin: ninth (2009)
In this age of immediate gratifi-
cation, it's hard to be patient
with a driver like Hornish who
doesn't immediately set the
world on fire, so you should
5
 FANTASY AUTO RACING 2010
QUALIFICATION NOTES: KOBALT TOOLS 500k
have respect for team owner unrestricted, intermediate fives or -10s that have come
Roger Penske. He's stuck with speedways than the short, flat from drivers who have previ-
the former open wheel driver tracks, so you will have a chance ously started in this position,
through some hard times and to start him next week on the (plus three spots ahead and
it is finally paying dividends. Both 1.5-miler of Homestead-Miami three spots behind that posi-
Hornish's best start and finish Speedway. tion), shown as a percentage of
on this track have come in the the total such results earned at
last two years, which is making Lineup this track in Cup competition.
him a consistently great value
in Yahoo!'s Group C. 2. A.J. Allmendinger
8. Regan Smith
The short, flat tracks are tradi- 9. Aric Almirola
tionally kind to former open 18. Paul Menard
wheel racers, and this week's 24. Casey Mears
preview noted his four-race 26. Bobby Labonte
top-10 streak on this track type 32. Dave Blaney
last year. It's too late for him 33. J.J. Yeley
to repeat that accomplishment 34. Robby Gordon
this season, but that doesn't 36. Mike Bliss
mean he won't be the best 37. David Gilliland
value in the last two races. 38. Travis Kvapil
39. Landon Cassill
Paul Menard (41%) 42. Tony Raines
43. Terry Labonte
Starts: 19th
Avg. Fin from this position: 23.79 * This is the percentage of top-
Top-fives from position +/-3*:
14%16%
Top-10s from position+/-3*:
Finishes for Pole Winners
Avg. Start: 22.14 Finished Times
Avg. Fin: 25.00
Attempts: 7 1 3 11%
2 1 4% 14%
Diff: -2.86
3 3 11%
Best prior start: seventh (2009)
4 2 7%
Best Fin: 21st (2008) 5 2 7% 39%
6 1 4%
It's impossible to ignore the 8 2 7%
strength of the team in Group 9 1 4%
C, so it's hard to question why 10 0 0% 54%
so many players still have 12 1 4%
Menard on their provisional ros- 13 2 7%
14 2 7%
ter. However, just as last week
15 1 4%
we suggested the No. 98 over 18 1 4%
the No. 77, this week should go 22 1 4%
to Hornish's team if your deci- 28 1 4%
sion comes down to these two 36 1 4%
drivers. 38 1 4%
42 1 4%
Menard is much better on the 43 1 4%

2010 FANTASY AUTO RACING:QUALIFICATION 6