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Paham Saham
Paham Saham
Melawan
inflasi
Why investasi?
Return
paling tinggi
Why saham?
Pasar paling
bagus Why sekarang?
Why Saham?
Modal Kecil Modal Modal Besar Fisik Fluktuatif
(max Rp100 Sedang (min Rp10
ribu) (Rp100 ribu- juta)
Rp10juta)
3
Why Saham?
8,57 5,78
Inflasi
5,38% % %
Saham
Deposit 10,82
o
%
6,96
Investasi Rp 100.000,- Anda menjadi berapa? %
Per 31 July 2018
380
340
Saham, 328.75
300
260 Obligasi Negara, 259.08
140
Tabungan, 130.91
100
60
Jul-18
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Why Sekarang?
JCI Index (IHSG) IDR Depreciation (%) Inflation (%)
JCI is significantly higher than 1998 & 2008 Depreciation rate is lower than 1998 & 2008 Inflation is controlled under
5,799.24 the revised budget target
1998 -197% 55.67
Non-Performing Loan (NPL, %) Policy Rate (%) Foreign Reserves (USD Billion)
NPL level is below the maximum threshold of Policy rate is significantly lower Significantly higher than 1998 & 2008, ample
5% to cover 6.9 months of import and external
60 debt repayment
1998 30.00
1998 17.40
2008 3.80 9.25 5.25 2008 50.20
Apr-18 2.79
1998 2008 Jun-18 Jun-18 119.8
Government Debt/GDP (%) External Debt/GDP External Debt (Public & Private) to FX
Continue to decline and allocated to Slightly higher than 2008, but significantly Reserve Ratio
productive sectors lower than 1998 Significantly lower than 1998 crisis
116.8%
100.0% 8.6x
27.4% 29.2% 33.2% 34.77%
3.1x 2.8x
8
Why Sekarang?
6,355.654
5,226.947
5,831.650
5,296.711
3,703.512 4,593.008
4,316.687
4,274.177
3,821.992
2,745.826
2,534.356
1,355.408
D-07 2008 D-08 2009 D-09 2010 D-10 2011 D-11 2012 D-12 2013 D-13 2014 D-14 2015 D-15 2016 D-16 2017 D-17 2018 D-18
9
Why Sekarang?
Market Capitalization
Listed Companies
Investor
in USD Billion (number of account, % total population)
11
Why Oh Why?
Financial Literacy Index
Survey in 2013 & 2016
Survey 2013 Survey 2016
29.7% 28.9% 28.3%
21.8% 21.8%
17.8% 17.8%
15.8% 14.9%
13.1%
10.9% 11.0%
9.8%
7.1%
3.8% 4.4%
National Bank ing Insurance Pension Fund Financing Pawnbroking Capit al Social Employees
Market Security Social
Administrat or Security
for Health Sy stem
13
Pasar Modal & Saham
1. Cari modal dari keluarga & temen (IPO & tercatat di BEI)
2. Masing2 kasih modal sesuai kemauan & kemampuan (pembeli saham UNVR)
3. Jualan tiap hari (produk dijual di supermarket & warung)
4. Bagi-bagi untung ke pemodal sesuai proporsi (bagi-bagi dividen)
14
Return vs Risk
Capital
Dividend
gain
Risk
Capital
Suspend Delisting Bankrupt
loss
Unilever Indonesia di BEI
IPO UNVR
1982 2018
IPO 9.2 juta lembar saham Sejak IPO (36 tahun) naik ±2500* kali
Harga Penawaran @Rp3,175
atau tumbuh ±24% per tahun
Kapitalisasi Pasar Rp29.21 miliar
*) disesuaikan dengan aksi korporasi selain dividen.
Punya iPod vs Punya Apple Inc.
2001 2018
BMW 320i Sport
= Saham
APPL
Saham
APPL =
USD399 333 lembar
@USD1.2/saham
333 lembar USD63,367
Rp4.2 juta @USD190.29
per saham Rp913 juta
Saham Saham
ASII ASII
= =
Rp 8 juta 500 lembar 500 lembar
Rp16.000 Rp760,515* Rp380 juta
per saham per saham
(Harga Pasar @Rp 7.150)
Bursa Efek (Saham)
Source: IDX
Gimana Milihnya?
Tetapkan Kenali
tujuan investasi perusahaannya
Fundamental Teknikal
Ekonomi
Industri
Perusahaan
( Saham)
Analisis Fundamental
Dividend Yield
• Seberapa konsisten perusahaan menghasilkan laba bersih
• Rekomendasi dividend yield = 2 - 4 %
Dividend Payout Ratio (DPR)
• Seberapa besar keuntungan (dividen) yang didistribusikan kepada pemegang
saham
• Rekomendasi DPR = 20-50%
Analisis Fundamental
Open Close
Open
Close
Low
Low
Analisa Teknikal
Analisa Teknikal
Moving Average (MA)
???
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
• RSI = 30
oversold
• RSI = 70
overbought
• RSI = 40-50
untuk jangka
pendek
sell
buy
Sumber Data & Informasi
Data Keterangan Data Keterangan
Investor Investor
pemula pengalaman
Tujuan tercapai!
Pilih Sahamnya
Market
No. Code Company %
• Menggunakan
Capitalization
(in Trillion Rp) top down atau
1. BBCA Bank Central Asia Tbk. 577.26 8.75 bottom up
2. HMSP H.M. Sampoerna Tbk. 433.87 6.58
analysis?
3. BBRI Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. 384.65 5.83
4. TLKM Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. [S] 381.39 5.78
5. UNVR Unilever Indonesia Tbk. [S] 329.81 5.00 • Pilih saham
6. ASII Astra International Tbk. [S] 319.82 4.85 blue chip
7. BMRI Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk. 316.47 4.80
8. GGRM Gudang Garam Tbk. 139.11 2.11
merupakan
9. BBNI Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. 135.24 2.05 cara mudah
10. UNTR United Tractors Tbk. [S] 124.96 1.90 tapi belum
11. ICBP Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk. [S] 104.08 1.58
12. CPIN Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk. [S] 90.19 1.37
tentu murah
X
13. TPIA Chandra Asri Petrochemical Tbk. [S] 85.78 1.30
14. BDMN Bank Danamon Indonesia Tbk. 70.45 1.07
15. INKP Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper Tbk. 69.62 1.06
16. BYAN Bayan Resources Tbk. [S] X 65.33 0.99
17. KLBF Kalbe Farma Tbk. [S] 64.22 0.97
18. INTP Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk. [S] 63.69 0.97
19. SMMA Sinar Mas Multiartha Tbk. X 63.04 0.96
20. MYOR Mayora Indah Tbk. [S] X 57.01 0.86
Market Capitalization of The 20 Stocks 3,875.99 58.78
• Cash is king
Maksimum 1 kali
Harga Fraksi
Perubahan Harga
< Rp200 Rp1 Rp10
Rp200 ≤ Harga < Rp500 Rp2 Rp20
Rp500 ≤ Harga < Rp2000 Rp5 Rp50
Rp2000 ≤ Harga < Rp5000 Rp10 Rp100
≥ Rp5.000 Rp25 Rp250
Fee
Waktu Harga Topup Lot Jual/Beli Portofolio Net Portofolio Saldo Kas Keterangan
Rp10,000,000
25-Jan 1000 Rp500,000 5 0.15% Rp500,000 Rp499,250 Rp9,500,000 Beli
25-Feb 850 Rp500,000 6 0.15% Rp425,000 Rp424,363 Rp9,000,000
25-Mar 700 Rp500,000 7 0.15% Rp411,765 Rp411,147 Rp8,500,000
25-Apr 750 Rp1,000,000 13 0.15% Rp535,714 Rp534,911 Rp7,500,000 Review & Beli
25-May 900 Rp500,000 6 0.15% Rp1,200,000 Rp1,198,200 Rp7,000,000
25-Jun 1250 Rp500,000 4 0.15% Rp694,444 Rp693,403 Rp6,500,000
25-Jul 1500 Rp1,000,000 7 0.15% Rp600,000 Rp599,100 Rp5,500,000 Review & Beli
25-Aug 1300 Rp500,000 4 0.15% Rp866,667 Rp865,367 Rp5,000,000
25-Sep 1200 Rp500,000 4 0.15% Rp461,538 Rp460,846 Rp4,500,000
25-Oct 1100 Rp1,000,000 9 0.15% Rp458,333 Rp457,646 Rp3,500,000 Review & Beli
25-Nov 1400 Rp500,000 4 0.15% Rp1,272,727 Rp1,270,818 Rp3,000,000
25-Dec 1300 - 0.25% Rp7,415,050 Rp7,396,512 Rp10,396,512 Jual
Fee
Waktu Harga Topup Lot Jual/Beli Portofolio Net Portofolio Saldo Kas Keterangan
Rp10,000,000
25-Jan 1000 Rp7,000,000 70 0.15% Rp7,000,000 Rp6,989,500 Rp3,000,000 Beli
25-Feb 850 70 Rp5,950,000 Rp5,950,000 Rp3,000,000
25-Mar 700 70 Rp4,900,000 Rp4,900,000 Rp3,000,000
25-Apr 750 70 Rp5,250,000 Rp5,250,000 Rp3,000,000
25-May 900 70 Rp6,300,000 Rp6,300,000 Rp3,000,000
25-Jun 1250 70 Rp8,750,000 Rp8,750,000 Rp3,000,000
25-Jul 1500 70 Rp10,500,000 Rp10,500,000 Rp3,000,000
25-Aug 1300 70 Rp9,100,000 Rp9,100,000 Rp3,000,000
25-Sep 1200 70 Rp8,400,000 Rp8,400,000 Rp3,000,000
25-Oct 1100 70 Rp7,700,000 Rp7,700,000 Rp3,000,000
25-Nov 1400 70 Rp9,800,000 Rp9,800,000 Rp3,000,000
25-Dec 1300 - 0.25% Rp9,800,000 Rp9,775,500 Rp12,775,500 Jual
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