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Four Step Model - Trip Distribution PDF
Four Step Model - Trip Distribution PDF
RAMOS
TRIP DISTRIBUTION
Trip distribution (or destination choice or zonal interchange analysis),
is the second component (after Trip Generation, but before Mode Choice
and Route Choice) in the traditional four-step transportation forecasting
model.
Zone 4
Zone 1 Zone 5
Zone 6
Zone 7
Zone 8
TWO BASIC METHODS
2. Synthetic Methods
Gravity Model
Opportunity Model
MODEL COMPARISON
i = I = Production Zone
j = J = Attraction Zone
Tij = τ tij
= (1.2)(5)
=6
TAZ 1 2 3 4
1 6 60 120 240 Trip Matrix, T
2 60 6 120 360
3 60 120 6 120 (2018)
4 120 240 300 24
FRATAR’S GROWTH-FACTOR METHOD
Sample Problems:
THE GRAVITY MODEL
M1 M2
F=k
r2
THE GRAVITY MODEL
Variables
Tij = Qij= Trips Volume between i & j
Fij = 1/Wcij = Friction Factor
Wij = Generalized Cost (including travel time, cost)
c = Calibration Constant
pij = Probability that trip i will be attracted to zone j
kij = Socioeconomic Adjustment Factor
THE GRAVITY MODEL
Pi Aj FijKij
Tij = Qij = = Pipij
ΣAjFijKij
(Productions)(Attractions)(Friction Factor)
= Sum of the (Attractions x Friction Factors) of the Zones
Fij = 1 / c
W ij & ln F = - c ln W
What we need…
1. Productions, {Pi}
2. Attractions, {Aj}
3. Skim Tables {Wij)
Target-Year Interzonal Impedances
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
Given:
Target-year Productions, {Pi}
Relative Attractiveness of Zones, {Aj}
Skim Table, {Wij}
Calibration Factor, c = 2.0
Socioeconomic Adjustment Factor, K = 1.0
Find:
Trip Interchanges, {Qij}
SAMPLE PROBLEMS
Given… Target-Year Inter-zonal
Calibration Factor
Impedances, {Wij}
TAZ Productions TAZ "Attractiveness" TAZ 1 2 3 4 c = 2.0
1 1500 1 0
1 5 10 15 20
2 0 2 3
3 2600 3 2 2 10 5 10 15 Socioeconomic Adj. Factor
3 15 10 5 10
4
Σ
0
4100
4
Σ
5
10 4 20 15 10 5
K = 1.0
Calculate Friction Factors, {Fij}
TAZ 1 2 3 4
1 0.0400 0.0100 0.0044 0.0025 1 1
2 0.0100 0.0400 0.0100 0.0044 Fij = c = F 11 = 2 = 0.04
3 0.0044 0.0100 0.0400 0.0100 W ij 5
4 0.0025 0.0044 0.0100 0.0400
TAZ 1 2 3 4
1 1.4 1.2 1.7 1.9
2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.4
3 1.7 1.1 1.5 1.3
4 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.6
The Problem with K-Factors
• Although K-Factors may improve the model in the base year,
they assume that these special conditions will carry over to
future years and scenarios
• This limits model sensitivity and undermines the model’s ability to
predict future travel behavior