Life Tables

 They were developed to forecast human population growth by sampling births

and deaths in the 15th century.
 The Life Table is a product of Actuarial Science (life insurance). The first Life
Table was developed in 1662 in England by John Graunt when he published
"The Bills of Mortality".
 This was useful as a concept (ordering mortality data) but there was very
unreliable mortality data available at that time. It was not until 1900 that
reliable mortality data became available.
 Life Tables can be constructed from these types of data sets and they allow us to
better understand the dynamics of populations e.g. in one particular year, there
are a huge number of births and most of those new borns survive, then that
particular year will clearly show up in the age distribution for years to come.
 Life tables allow us to visualize patterns of births and deaths in our
populations.
 In Life Tables. we have numbers observed but rates can be calculated from those
numbers. The rate of mortality (dying) for example can be calculated and this
rate can be plotted as a graph. The opposite to this type of graphs are
survivorship graphs.
 These traits are obviously affected by environmental influences, for example
periodic disturbances, or density dependent influences.
 The life history characteristics of some organisms are so programmed to their
environment that some populations can, for example, rapidly exploit new
available resources when they become available. These characteristics are
classified as opportunistic. Other organisms may have more persistent (and
resistant) strategies, whereas others may be marginal (somewhere in the
middle).
 Populations constitute old and young individuals. The proportion of individuals
in each age group, or age class (or cohort), in a population makes up its age
distribution.
 Knowledge of some background terms and concepts will be useful for
understanding of life table techniques.

1. Cohort. The basic unit of the life table defined as a group of same-
aged persons (birth cohort) or any group of persons who experience
the same significant event in a particular time period (e.g. marriage or
graduation cohort).
2. Life expectancy. The average number of years remaining to a person
of a specified age
3. Life span. The maximal number of years for a given species.
4. Longitudinal survey. Data gathered on a single group over a long
period of time
5. Cross sectional survey. Data gathered from multiple groups over a
short period of time.
  They have been more recently applied to other populations and used in Ecology.
 There are two general forms of the life table.

1. Cohort Life Table: which provides a longitudinal perspective in that

it includes the mortality experience of a particular cohort from the
moment of birth through consecutive ages until none remains in the
original cohort.
2. Current Life Table: which is cross-sectional. This table assumes a
hypothetical cohort subject throughout its lifetime to the age-specific
mortality rates prevailing for the actual population over a specified
period and are used to construct a synthetic cohort.

 In a Life Table it is simply stated, the study of the number of organisms in a

population with special reference to age, size, stage specific schedules of
reproduction and mortality varying with time.
 In such studies researchers use terms like age at maturity (x), number of eggs,
survivorship or probability of surviving from birth to beginning of age class x (lx),
probability of surviving from age x to age x+1 (px), probability of dying between
age x and age x+1 (dx). From these demographic parameters we may obtain life
tables

Life Table Functions

The Life Table is organized in seven columns starting with an age x column from 0
through the age of the oldest person ever to live around 120 years.

Table 1. Hypothetical life table showing the main functions.

Cohort Survival Mortality Deaths Expectation

Living at survival from in interval in interval of life
Age Age x to age x x to x+1 x to x+1 x to x+1 at age x
x Nx lx px qx dx ex
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

0 100,000 1.000 .900 .100 .100 2.40

1 90,000 .900 .556 .444 .400 1.61
2 50,000 .500 .800 .200 .100 1.50
3 40,000 .400 .250 .750 .300 .75
4 10,000 .100 .000 1.000 .100 .50
5 0 -- -- -- -- --

lx= proportion of all newborn surviving to age x

px = proportion of individuals alive at age x that survive to x+1
 qx = proportion of individuals alive at age x that die prior to x+1
dx = proportion of all newborn that die in the interval x to x+1
ex = expected lifetime remaining to the average individual age x

Column 1. The first column of a life table contains all age classes denoted x and ranges
from 0 (newborn) through the oldest possible age.

Column 2. This column gives the number of the original cohort alive at age x and is
denoted Nx. The initial number is typically 100,000 and is known as the Life Table
Radix.

Column 3. This column contains cohort survival, lx, defined as the fraction of the
original cohort surviving to age x. The general formula is given as

For example:

= 1.0000 = 0.4000

Survival
Column 4. The parameter defined in this column is known as period survival, px,
defined as the fraction of individuals alive at age x that survive to age x+1. The
general formula is given as

For example the period survival rates for ages x=0 and x=3 from Table 1 are

= 0.90 = 0.25

Thus the probability of surviving from age 0 to 1 is 0.90 and from age 3 to 4 is 0.25.

Column 5. This column contains the compliment of period survival and is known as
period mortality, qx, defined as the fraction of individuals alive at age x that die
prior to age x+1. The general formula is

or

qx = 1 - px

For example, the period mortality rates for ages x=0 and x=3 from Table 1 are

q0 = 1 - p0 q3 = 1 - p3
= 1.00 - 0.90 = 1.00 - 0.25
= 0.10 = 0.75

Thus it shows the fraction of individuals that are alive at age 0 but die prior to age 1
is 0.10 and the fraction that are alive at age 3 but die prior to age 4 is 0.75.
 Age-Specific Mortality

Column 6. The parameter contained in this column is the fraction of the original cohort
that dies in the interval x to x+1 and is denoted dx. It is the frequency distribution of
deaths and is given by the formula

dx = lx - lx+1

For example, the value of dx for ages x=0 and x=3 from Table 1 are

d0 = l0 - l1 d3 = l3 - l4
= 1.00 - 0.90 = 0.14 - 0.10
= .10 = .30

Thus the fraction of the original cohort that dies in the interval 0 to 1 is 0.10 and the
fraction that dies in the interval 3 to 4 is 0.30.
 Frequency Distribution of Deaths

Column 7. This column contains the parameter expectation of life, ex, which is defined
as the average number of years (days, weeks) remaining to an individual age x. The
general formula is given by

For example, the value of dx for ages x =0 and x=3 from Table 1 are

= 2.40 = 0.75

Thus the expectation of life at birth, e0, is 2.4 and at age 3, e3, is 0.75.
Expectation of Life

Life Table of the grass Poa annua (direct observations).

Age Number Survivorship Mortality Survival Expectation Fucundity

(x)* Alive (l x) Rate (m x) Rate (s x) of life (ex) (bx)
0 843 1.000 0.143 0.857 2.114 0
1 722 0.857 0.271 0.729 1.467 300
2 527 0.625 0.400 0.600 1.011 620
3 316 0.375 0.544 0.456 0.685 430
4 144 0.171 0.626 0.374 0.503 210
5 54 0.064 0.722 0.278 0.344 60
6 15 0.018 0.800 0.200 0.222 30
7 3 0.004 1.000 0.000 0.000 10
8 0 0.000
*Number of 3-month periods: in other words, 3 = 9 months

Current Life Table

 A Current Life Table is based on the concept of a synthetic cohort in which the
probabilities of dying from one age class to the next are based on the death
rates of each of the cohorts living at any one time.
 The idea is based on the notion that the probability of surviving to say, age 5, is
the probability (or fraction) or newborn individuals living to age 1 times the
 probability of age 1 individuals living to age 2 times the probability of age 2
individuals living to age 3 and so forth.
 Thus the general form for reconstructing a survival curve and, in turn, all other
life table parameters from period survival (or period mortality) data is

lx = p0 × p1 × p2 × ... × px-1

 For example, suppose we wish to construct a survival curve from the death rates
prevailing from 1990 to 1991 as given in Table 2. The probability of an individual
age 0 in 1990 surviving to age 1 in 1991 is

= 0.8364

Table 2. Number of persons in hypothetical census by age class and year.

Age

Year 0 1 2 3

1990 110,000 121,000 110,000

1991 92,000 100,000 101,000

Similarly for the probabilities for individuals surviving from age 1 to 2 and age 2 to 3

= 0.8264

= .09182

Thus a synthetic survival schedule can be constructed by multiplying progressively as

 Age px lx Nx

0 0.8364 1.0000 100,000

1 0.8264 0.8364 83,640
2 0.9182 0.6912 69,120
3 0.6347 63,470

Thus out of 100,000 individuals age 0, 83,640 will survive to age 1. This is based on the
1990 to 1991 probability of survival from 0 to 1 years. Out of these 83,640 individuals
alive at age 1, 0.8264 of these or 69,120 will survive to age 2. Out of these 69,120
individuals alive at age 2, 0.9182 or 63,470 will survive to age 3. In other words, the
fraction that survive to age x equals the product of the fractions (or probabilities) that
survive through each of the previous age classes.

 Both the cohort life table and the current life table are based on assumptions that
are violated in reality. The cohort life table is based on the mortality experience of
the same group of individuals from birth through the age when the last individuals
dies.

Table . Life Table for 1970 birth cohort subjected to mortality rates of 1990 U.S.
females.

Survival Survival Mortality Fraction dying Number Expecta-

Number
to from x to from x to x to dying x to tion of
Year Age Remaining
age x x+1 x+1 x+1 x+1 life
Alive
lx px qx dx Dx ex

1970 0 3731000 1.0000 .9914 .0086 .0086 31975 79.9

1971 1 3699025 .9914 .9993 .0007 .0007 2537 79/5
1972 2 3696488 .9908 .9996 .0004 .0004 1567 78.6
1973 3 3694921 .9903 .9997 .0003 .0003 1194 77.6
1974 4 3693727 .9900 .9997 .0003 .0002 933 76.7
1975 5 3692795 .9898 .9998 .0002 .0002 821 75.7
1976 6 3691974 .9895 .9998 .0002 .0002 746 74.7
1977 7 3691228 .9893 .9998 .0002 .0002 709 73.7
1978 8 3690519 .9892 .9998 .0002 .0002 634 72.7
1979 9 3689884 .9890 .9998 .0002 .0002 597 71.7
1980 10 3689287 .9888 .9998 .0002 .0002 597 70.7

1981 11 3688690 .9887 .9998 .0002 .0001 560 69.8

1982 12 3688131 .9885 .9998 .0002 .0002 672 68.8
1983 13 3687459 .9883 .9998 .0002 .0002 784 67.8
1984 14 3686676 .9881 .9997 .0003 .0003 1007 66.8
1985 15 3685668 .9879 .9997 .0003 .0003 1269 65.8
1986 16 3684400 .9875 .9996 .0004 .0004 1455 64.8
1987 17 3682945 .9871 .9996 .0004 .0004 1642 63.9
1988 18 3681303 .9867 .9995 .0005 .0005 1716 62.9
1989 19 3679587 .9862 .9995 .0005 .0005 1791 61.9
1990 20 3677796 .9857 .9995 .0005 .0005 1791 60.9

1991 21 3676005 .9853 .9995 .0005 .0005 1866 60.0

1992 22 3674140 .9848 .9995 .0005 .0005 1903 59.0
1993 23 3672237 .9843 .9995 .0005 .0005 1940 58.0
1994 24 3670297 .9837 .9995 .0005 .0005 1977 57.1
1995 25 3668319 .9832 .9994 .0006 .0006 2089 56.1
1996 26 3666230 .9826 .9994 .0006 .0006 2127 55.1
1997 27 3664103 .9821 .9994 .0006 .0006 2127 54.2
1998 28 3661977 .9815 .9994 .0006 .0006 2164 53.2
1999 29 3659813 .9809 .9994 .0006 .0006 2127 52.2
2000 30 3657686 .9804 .9994 .0006 .0006 2164 51.2

2001 31 3655522 .9798 .9994 .0006 .0006 2164 50.3

2002 32 3653358 .9792 .9994 .0006 .0006 2239 49.3
2003 33 3651119 .9786 .9994 .0006 .0006 2276 48.3
2004 34 3648843 .9780 .9993 .0007 .0006 2388 47.4
2005 35 3646456 .9773 .9993 .0007 .0007 2500 46.4
2006 36 3643956 .9767 .9993 .0007 .0007 2649 45.4
2007 37 3641307 .9760 .9992 .0008 .0008 2947 44.5
2008 38 3638359 .9752 .9991 .0009 .0009 3395 43.5
2009 39 3634964 .9743 .9989 .0011 .0010 3880 42.5
2010 40 3631084 .9732 .9988 .0012 .0012 4515 41.6