BP Energy Outlook

2019 edition

This workbook contains chart data presented in the 2019 BP Energy Outlook

The tabs correspond to the chart page numbers

http://www.bp.com/energyoutlook
Primary energy consumption by fuel

Million toe 2017 ET ME LG RT

Oil 4538 4860 6070 4484 3845
Gas 3156 4617 5767 4320 4343
Coal 3732 3625 4528 3503 1079
Nuclear 596 770 961 770 1012
Hydro 919 1245 1555 1245 1403
Renew.* 571 2748 3432 2763 4709

*Renewables includes wind, solar, geothermal, biomass, and biofuels

CO2 emissions

Gt CO2 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976

Evolving transition (ET) 14267 14763 15465 16312 16226 16246 17126
More energy (ME) 14267 14763 15465 16312 16226 16246 17126
Less globalization (LG) 14267 14763 15465 16312 16226 16246 17126
Rapid transition (RT) 14267 14763 15465 16312 16226 16246 17126
1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986
17673 17952 18528 18364 18130 17958 18129 18798 19196 19530
17673 17952 18528 18364 18130 17958 18129 18798 19196 19530
17673 17952 18528 18364 18130 17958 18129 18798 19196 19530
17673 17952 18528 18364 18130 17958 18129 18798 19196 19530
1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
20136 20804 21202 21295 21291 21378 21412 21650 21898 22518
20136 20804 21202 21295 21291 21378 21412 21650 21898 22518
20136 20804 21202 21295 21291 21378 21412 21650 21898 22518
20136 20804 21202 21295 21291 21378 21412 21650 21898 22518
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
22730 22777 23077 23623 23944 24486 25697 27025 28133 29017
22730 22777 23077 23623 23944 24486 25697 27025 28133 29017
22730 22777 23077 23623 23944 24486 25697 27025 28133 29017
22730 22777 23077 23623 23944 24486 25697 27025 28133 29017
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
30079 30382 29714 31074 31971 32296 32776 32860 32824 32988
30079 30382 29714 31074 31971 32296 32776 32860 32824 32988
30079 30382 29714 31074 31971 32296 32776 32860 32824 32988
30079 30382 29714 31074 31971 32296 32776 32860 32824 32988
2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
33414 34296 34877 35200 35659 35908
33414 35993 39042 41665 44121 46030
33414 33759 33376 33484 33859 33972
33414 30896 28307 25627 22253 18015
Primary energy demand - End-use sector

Million toe 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Industry* 2386 3132 3671 4023 5353 6195 6881 7443
Non-combusted 181 299 459 580 730 926 1107 1263
Buildings 1389 1946 2411 2810 3598 4231 4875 5638
Transport 919 1250 1571 1944 2439 2952 3233 3521

*Industry excludes non-combusted use of fuels

Primary energy demand - Region

Million toe 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
OECD 3487 4256 5036 5612 5756 5842 5803 5719
China 202 417 684 1011 2491 3462 3840 4017
India 65 103 196 318 538 860 1300 1928
Other Asia 88 167 294 499 754 1035 1347 1681
Africa 75 145 223 273 387 492 700 1019
Other 959 1540 1678 1644 2193 2613 3107 3502
Primary energy demand - Fuel

Million toe 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Oil 2292 3053 3237 3691 4145 4675 4829 4860
Gas 827 1224 1676 2065 2731 3382 4041 4617
Coal 1467 1793 2222 2356 3606 3779 3647 3625
Nuclear 18 161 453 584 626 673 739 770
Hydro 266 384 489 601 778 993 1165 1245
Renewables 6 11 35 59 234 802 1674 2748
Increase in global GDP, 2017-2040

Trillion $US
GDP in 2017 113.9

Growth in population 25.2

Growth in GDP/capita 96.5

GDP in 2040 235.6

Global GDP growth and regional contributions

% per annum 1995-2017 2017-2040

China 1.0% 1.0%
India 0.4% 0.6%
Africa 0.2% 0.2%
Other Asia 0.4% 0.4%
Other 0.5% 0.3%
OECD 1.1% 0.6%
Global 3.7% 3.2%
Increase in primary energy demand, 2017-2040

Billion toe
Primary energy demand 2017 13.5

Population 3.0
GDP/capita 11.5
Energy/GDP 10.1

Primary energy demand 2040 17.9

Contributions to primary energy demand growth

% per annum 1995-2017 2017-2040

Population growth 1.2% 0.9%
Energy intensity -1.5% -1.9%
GDP per head 2.4% 2.3%
Net 2.1% 1.2%
Human development index and energy consumption per head, 2017

Country Gigajoules/capita HDI 2017

Nigeria 7 0.53
South Africa 91 0.70
Egypt 40 0.70
Algeria 54 0.75
Morocco 23 0.67
Angola 17 0.58
Sudan 8 0.50
Kenya 7 0.59
Tunisia 36 0.73
Ghana 10 0.59
Tanzania 4 0.54
Ethiopia 3 0.46
Cote d'Ivoire 8 0.49
Cameroon 6 0.56
Congo, Dem. Rep. 2 0.46
Zambia 11 0.59
Uganda 2 0.52
Libya 108 0.71
Gabon 40 0.70
Botswana 43 0.72
Senegal 8 0.51
Congo, Rep. 15 0.61
Namibia 27 0.65
Mozambique 7 0.44
Chad 0 0.40
Zimbabwe 11 0.53
Equatorial Guinea 85 0.59
Burkina Faso 2 0.42
Mauritius 66 0.79
Mali 3 0.43
Madagascar 2 0.52
Benin 9 0.51
Rwanda 2 0.52
Niger 1 0.35
Malawi 2 0.48
Mauritania 9 0.52
Guinea 4 0.46
Togo 4 0.50
Swaziland 12 0.59
Sierra Leone 2 0.42
Eritrea 2 0.44
Lesotho 15 0.52
Burundi 0 0.42
Cape Verde 38 0.65
Djibouti 22 0.48
Central African Republic 1 0.37
Seychelles 187 0.80
Gambia, The 4 0.46
Guinea-Bissau 3 0.46
Comoros 4 0.50
Sao Tome and Principe 14 0.59
Canada 399 0.93
Mexico 61 0.77
Germany 174 0.94
France 153 0.90
United Kingdom 122 0.92
Italy 109 0.88
Spain 126 0.89
Netherlands 212 0.93
Poland 111 0.87
Sweden 230 0.93
Belgium 228 0.92
Austria 175 0.91
Denmark 127 0.93
Ireland 138 0.94
Finland 208 0.92
Greece 106 0.87
Portugal 108 0.85
Czech republic 165 0.89
Romania 74 0.81
Hungary 99 0.84
Slovak Republic 125 0.86
Luxembourg 266 0.90
Croatia 75 0.83
Bulgaria 112 0.81
Slovenia 140 0.90
Latvia 90 0.85
Lithuania 85 0.86
Estonia 218 0.87
Cyprus 97 0.87
Malta 308 0.88
United States 287 0.92
China 94 0.75
Kazakhstan 156 0.80
Belarus 103 0.81
Azerbaijan 59 0.76
Uzbekistan 59 0.71
Turkmenistan 241 0.71
Georgia 59 0.78
Armenia 45 0.76
Tajikistan 28 0.65
Moldova 34 0.70
Kyrgyzstan 41 0.67
Russia 204 0.82
India 24 0.64
Argentina 81 0.82
Colombia 36 0.75
Venezuela, RB 97 0.76
Chile 88 0.84
Peru 34 0.75
Ecuador 42 0.75
Cuba 32 0.78
Dominican Republic 39 0.74
Guatemala 19 0.65
Uruguay 64 0.80
Costa Rica 45 0.79
Panama 96 0.79
Bolivia 28 0.69
Paraguay 97 0.70
El Salvador 22 0.67
Honduras 22 0.62
Jamaica 46 0.73
Nicaragua 15 0.66
Bahamas, The 150 0.81
Haiti 4 0.50
Suriname 57 0.72
Barbados 87 0.80
Guyana 40 0.65
Belize 27 0.71
St. Lucia 34 0.75
Antigua and Barbuda 147 0.78
Grenada 48 0.77
St. Kitts and Nevis 74 0.78
St. Vincent / Grenadines 31 0.72
Dominica 40 0.72
Brazil 58 0.76
Saudi Arabia 343 0.85
Iran, Islamic Rep. 142 0.80
United Arab Emirates 484 0.86
Israel 130 0.90
Iraq 53 0.69
Kuwait 401 0.80
Oman 260 0.82
Lebanon 57 0.76
Bahrain 452 0.85
Jordan 55 0.74
Syrian Arab Republic 19 0.54
Yemen, Rep 7 0.45
Turkey 82 0.79
Switzerland 131 0.94
Norway 373 0.95
Ukraine 77 0.75
Serbia 80 0.79
Bosnia and Herzegovina 92 0.77
Albania 35 0.78
Macedonia, FYR 47 0.76
Montenegro 57 0.81
Japan 152 0.91
Australia 237 0.94
South Korea 244 0.90
New Zealand 201 0.92
Indonesia 28 0.69
Thailand 80 0.75
Malaysia 134 0.80
Philippines 17 0.70
Hong Kong, China 175 0.93
Pakistan 17 0.56
Bangladesh 8 0.61
Vietnam 33 0.69
Sri Lanka 15 0.77
Myanmar 11 0.58
Afghanistan 5 0.50
Nepal 6 0.57
Cambodia 10 0.58
Papua New Guinea 15 0.54
Brunei 409 0.85
Mongolia 69 0.74
Lao PDR 57 0.60
East Timor 5 0.62
Fiji 50 0.74
Maldives 86 0.72
Bhutan 96 0.61
Solomon Islands 6 0.55
Vanuatu 9 0.60
Samoa 25 0.71
Tonga 34 0.73
Share of world population consuming less than 100 Gigajoules per head

%of total population 2017 2040

Evolving transition 81% 65%
More energy 81% 32%
Primary energy demand and carbon emissions

Cumulative growth rate More energy scenario - Total Evolving transition scenario -
2017 = 0% global consumption Total global consumption
2017 0% 0%
2020 11% 6%
2025 25% 13%
2030 39% 19%
2035 52% 26%
2040 65% 32%
Evolving transition scenario - Net Rapid transition scenario - Net
carbon emissions carbon emissions
0% 0%
3% -8%
4% -15%
5% -23%
7% -33%
7% -46%
Primary energy consumption by end-use sector †

Million toe 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Industry* 2386 3132 3671 4023 5353 6195 6881 7443
Non-combusted 181 299 459 580 730 926 1107 1263
Buildings 1389 1946 2411 2810 3598 4231 4875 5638
Transport 919 1250 1571 1944 2439 2952 3233 3521

†
Primary energy used in power is allocated according to final sector electricity consumption
*Industry excludes non-combusted use of fuels
Annual demand growth and sector contributions

% per annum 1995-2017 2017-2040

Buildings 0.6% 0.5%
Non-combusted 0.2% 0.1%
Industry* 0.9% 0.5%
Transport 0.5% 0.2%

*Industry excludes non-combusted use of fuels

Final energy consumption in industry - regional shares of growth

% per annum 1985-2000 2000-2015 2015-2030 2030-2040

OECD 0.1% -0.3% 0.1% -0.1%
China 0.6% 1.7% 0.1% -0.3%
India 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4%
Other Asia 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Africa 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Others 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%
World 1.1% 2.4% 1.1% 0.6%
Final energy consumption in industry - demand by fuel

Billion toe 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Oil 610 619 627 629 652 665
Coal 739 697 1250 1252 1191 1064
Gas 663 762 902 1101 1321 1504
Electricity 581 702 950 1220 1450 1659
Non-combusted demand by source

Million toe 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Oil 449.7 551.4 670.0 776.4 872.0
Gas 107.8 143.6 192.2 246.6 300.1
Coal 22.8 35.2 64.0 83.9 90.7
Non-combusted oil demand

Mb/d
2017 15.1
2040 24.8
Impact of tighter plastics regulations 2.90
Liquid feedstocks for single-use plastics

Mb/d 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

ET scenario 1.1 1.4 1.9 2.3 2.8 3.4 4.0
Single-use plastics ban 3.9
2025 2030 2035 2040
4.6 5.1 5.6 6.1
4.1 3.4 1.3 0.0
Total liquids demand

Mb/d 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

ET scenario 66.5 66.7 67.8 67.6 69.2 70.4 71.9
Single-use plastics ban 66.5 66.7 67.8 67.6 69.2 70.4 71.9
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
74.1 74.5 76.0 76.8 77.7 78.6 80.3 83.2 84.5 85.6
74.1 74.5 76.0 76.8 77.7 78.6 80.3 83.2 84.5 85.6
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
87.1 86.5 85.6 88.5 89.6 90.5 92.1 93.0 94.8 96.5
87.1 86.5 85.6 88.5 89.6 90.5 92.1 93.0 94.8 96.5
2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
98.2 101.6 104.9 106.4 107.9 107.7
98.2 101.6 104.4 104.6 103.7 101.7
Growth of prosperity and energy use in buildings

Other
Annual growth in Developed
developing
2017-2040, p.a.% countries & CIS
countries
Oil -0.3% 0.1%
Gas 0.0% 0.6%
Coal -0.1% -0.3%
Electricity 0.3% 2.1%
Energy demand -0.1% 2.4%

GDP per hear 1.4% 3.3%

Final energy consumption in buildings by fuel

Million toe 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Oil 458 439 447 425 380
Gas 545 635 709 781 835
Coal 125 158 142 101 39
Electricity 606 873 1114 1391 1728
Energy demand growth in ET and LCIB scenarios

% per annum Industry Buildings

1995-2017 1.9% 1.5%
ET 0.9% 1.1%
LCIB 0.1% 0.7%
Buildings and industry fuel mix (2040)

Industry Buildings
Million toe ET LCIB ET LCIB
Liquids 665 554 380 184
Gas 1504 1304 835 745
Coal 1064 632 39 0
Electricity 1659 1573 1728 1761
Carbon emissions in industry and buildings

Gt CO2 Industry Buildings

2040 ET 16.4 10.1

Circular Economy 1.2

Efficiency 1.67 0.9
Fuel switching 0.06 0.1
CCUS 1.59

2040 LCIB 11.9 9.3

Carbon emissions by sector

Gt CO2 Industry Buildings Transport

2017 15.9 9.3 8.3
2040 ET 16.4 10.1 9.4
2040 LCIB 11.9 9.3 9.4
Final energy consumption in transport - Consumption by region

Million toe 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

OECD 1,304 1,390 1,463 1,391 1,280
China 95 229 395 466 484
India 34 69 116 165 247
Other Asia 131 201 286 349 399
Other 352 511 638 775 882
Final energy consumption in transport - Growth by mode

Million toe 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040

Rail 5.8 0.0 1.3 0.7
Aviation 29.1 107.9 57.7 54.5
Marine 51.5 24.7 38.7 14.4
Road 397.5 365.6 150.0 78.5
Transport energy consumption - by fuel

Million toe 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Electricity 16 23 33 56 148
Gas 3 29 58 122 165
Oil 1886 2284 2710 2832 2833
Other* 11 64 96 135 148

* Other includes biofuels, coal and hydrogen

Transport energy consumption - Growth by fuel and mode, 2017-40

Billion toe Biofuels Electricity Gas Oil

Aviation 8 0 0 143
Marine 3 0 31 39
Rail 0 7 0 -7
Road 49 113 87 48
Passenger car parc and vehicle kms electrified

Share electrified (%) 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Vehicle kms 0% 1% 3% 5% 12% 24%
Passenger car parc 0% 1% 3% 5% 10% 15%
Change in the share of road passenger kms

Percentage point 2020-2030 2030-2040

Own Car 4.8% -3.0%
Bus -4.9% -4.4%
Private hire car* 0.9% 10.3%
Light duty truck -0.4% -2.2%
2- and 3- wheeler -0.4% -0.8%

*Includes all forms of taxis

Alternative scenario: lower-carbon transport sector

Efficiency improvements 2017 – 2040 (%) ICE cars Trucks Marine

ET 49% 30% 38%
LCT 54% 37% 44%

Electrification of Vehicle kms by 2040 (%) 2-Wheelers Passenger cars Trucks

ET 7% 24% 6%
LCT 81% 37% 16%

Share of non-oil road transport by 2040 (%) Gas Biofuels Electricity

ET 5% 7% 4%
LCT 5% 11% 10%

Typical car-lifespan (years)

ET 12
LCT 8
Aviation
32%
32%
Transport emissions in ET and LCT scenarios in 2040

Gt CO2
2040 Transport Emissions ET 9.4

Road -1.1
Switching -0.7
Efficiency -0.4

Other -0.2
Switching -0.1
Efficiency -0.1

2040 Transport Emissions LCT 8.1

Road emissions in LCT scenario, 2017 – 2040

Gt CO2
2017 Road Transport Emissions 6.5

Demand for transport services 6.7

0.0
Efficiency -5.8

Fuel Switching -1.9

Electrification -1.0
Biofuels -0.7
Gas -0.2

Advanced Mobility -0.3

2040 Road Transport Emissions LCT 5.3

Growth in primary energy and inputs to power

Billion toe 1995-2017 2017-2040

Primary energy 4.9 4.4

Power 2.5 3.2

OECD 0.4 0.4
Non-O 2.2 2.8
Fuel shares in power

% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Gas 18% 18% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19% 20%
Coal 41% 41% 42% 43% 43% 44% 45% 45%
Renewables 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Hydro & Nuclear 32% 32% 31% 30% 30% 29% 29% 28%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
20% 20% 20% 20% 21% 20% 20% 21% 22% 22%
44% 44% 43% 44% 43% 44% 43% 41% 40% 40%
3% 3% 3% 4% 5% 5% 6% 7% 7% 8%
28% 28% 28% 27% 26% 26% 27% 26% 27% 26%
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
21% 22% 21% 21% 20%
37% 33% 31% 29% 27%
11% 16% 21% 25% 29%
27% 26% 26% 24% 22%
Change in primary energy to power 2017-2040

Billion toe OECD Non-OECD

Gas 0.2 0.4
Coal -0.4 0.5
Renewables 0.7 1.4
Other -0.2 0.6
Total 0.4 2.8
Growth in carbon intensity and power consumption, 2017-2040

Growth of power Growth of carbon

% per annum intensity
EU 0.4% -3.1%
Other CIS 1.5% -1.5%
Africa 4.4% -2.2%
OECD Asia 0.9% -1.6%
China 2.1% -2.3%
India 4.8% -1.3%
Other Asia 3.5% -0.2%

World 2.0% -1.4%

OECD 0.7% -1.9%
Non-OECD 2.7% -1.5%
Power mix in 2040

Faster tech. & Faster

ET
Billion toe depreciation technology
Gas 1.4 1.7 1.8
Coal 1.7 2.0 2.4
Other 2.1 2.1 2.1
Renewables 3.9 3.2 2.6
Carbon prices

$/t of CO2 OECD Non-OECD

2010 7 0
2015 4 0
2020 13 5
2025 25 10
2030 49 22
2035 98 46
2040 200 100
Carbon intensity in ET and LCP scenarios

g of CO2 per kWh

2017 497
ET 2040 346

Carbon Prices -138

CCS subsidies -18
More R&D spending -65
Other policies -46

LCP 2040 78
Inputs to power by fuel

2040
Billion toe 2017 ET LCP
Renewables 0.5 2.6 4.4
Gas 1.2 1.8 1.0
Gas CCUS 0.0 0.0 0.8
Coal 2.3 2.4 0.2
Coal CCUS 0.0 0.0 0.2
Other 1.7 2.1 2.4
Primary energy consumption by region

Billion toe 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

China 0.7 1.0 2.5 3.5 3.8 4.0
India 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.9
OECD 5.0 5.6 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7
Other Asia 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.7
Africa 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0
Other 1.7 1.6 2.2 2.6 3.1 3.5
Primary energy growth and regional contributions

% per annum 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040

China 0.4% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
India 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%
OECD 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% -0.03% -0.1%
Other Asia 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Africa 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Other 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Primary energy consumption by region and fuel

US
Billion toe 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Oil 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95
Gas 0.54 0.52 0.53 0.52 0.52 0.51 0.50 0.54
Coal 0.54 0.53 0.52 0.53 0.54 0.55 0.54 0.55
Renewables 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04
Nuclear 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19
Hydro 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.06

EU
Billion toe 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Oil 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Gas 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Coal 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Renewables 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Nuclear 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Hydro 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

China
Billion toe 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Oil 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
Gas 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Coal 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.6
Renewables 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nuclear 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hydro 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

India
Billion toe 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Oil 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Gas 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Coal 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Renewables 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nuclear 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hydro 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0.89 0.85 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.84 0.85 0.86 0.87 0.88
0.54 0.53 0.56 0.57 0.59 0.61 0.62 0.64 0.65 0.64
0.54 0.47 0.50 0.47 0.42 0.43 0.43 0.37 0.34 0.33
0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.13
0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19
0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
1.6 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
0.85 0.81 0.77 0.73 0.69
0.66 0.70 0.74 0.78 0.82
0.31 0.27 0.22 0.18 0.14
0.17 0.22 0.28 0.34 0.39
0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10
0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4
0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7
0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4
0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.7
0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3
0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4
0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
Primary energy supply by region

Billion toe 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

US 1.6 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.6
Russia 1.3 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.7
Middle East 0.9 1.3 2.1 2.1 2.4 2.8
Africa 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.2
China 0.7 0.9 2.5 2.6 3.0 3.2
Other 3.1 3.7 4.7 4.9 5.6 6.3
Primary energy production growth and regional contributions

% per annum 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040

United States 0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Russia -0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Middle East 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
Africa 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2%
China 0.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2%
Other 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
Total growth 1.3% 2.6% 1.7% 1.2% 1.0%
Energy balance of traded fuels (oil, gas, coal)

Million toe 1990 2017 2040

Americas -133 59 646
Europe -967 -959 -819
Middle East and Africa 963 1530 1640
CIS 515 868 1092
Asia Pacific -379 -1449 -2475
Less globalization - Difference relative to ET scenario in 2040: Global GDP and energy demand

%
GDP -6.0%

Energy -4.4%
Oil -2.1%
Gas -1.7%
Coal -0.7%
Renewable 0.1%
GDP and energy demand
Less globalization - Difference relative to ET scenario in 2040: Regional fuel demand

Million toe Oil Gas Coal Renewables Energy

China -60.9 -83.2 -20.3 44.6 -119.8
India -49.9 -25.7 -15.7 4.4 -86.9
EU -11.7 -34.3 -11.1 43.5 -13.7
US -2.9 12.1 -9.2 -29.2 -29.3
Russia 1.2 -12.1 -6.0 -7.2 -24.1
uel demand
Net exporting/importing (oil & gas)

US Net exporting
Million toe 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 2020 2025 2030
ET -659 -744 -584 -288 -294 -24 181 262
Less globalization -659 -744 -584 -288 -294 -48 64 121

Russia Net exporting

Million toe 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 2020 2025 2030
ET 347 509 526 544 585 606 651 680
Less globalization 347 509 526 544 585 583 586 599

China Net importing

Million toe 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 2020 2025 2030
ET 64 151 259 401 482 583 676 732
Less globalization 64 151 259 401 482 526 563 598

India Net importing

Million toe 2000 2005 2010 2015 2017 2020 2025 2030
ET 74 94 126 170 202 238 287 346
Less globalization 74 94 126 170 202 224 253 300
2035 2040
269 243
117 80

2035 2040
732 779
639 676

2035 2040
781 783
632 623

2035 2040
424 516
363 437
Primary energy consumption by fuel

Billion toe 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Oil 2.3 3.1 3.2 3.7 4.1 4.7 4.8
Gas 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.1 2.7 3.4 4.0
Coal 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.4 3.6 3.8 3.6
Nuclear 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7
Hydro 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2
Renewables 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.7
2040
4.9
4.6
3.6
0.8
1.2
2.7
Shares of primary energy

% 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977

Oil 47% 48% 49% 50% 49% 48% 49% 49%
Gas 17% 17% 17% 17% 18% 18% 18% 18%
Coal 30% 29% 28% 27% 27% 27% 27% 27%
Nuclear 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2%
Hydro 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 5% 5%
Renewables 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
48% 48% 46% 45% 43% 43% 42% 41% 41% 40%
18% 18% 18% 19% 19% 19% 20% 20% 19% 20%
26% 26% 27% 28% 28% 28% 28% 29% 28% 29%
2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 5% 5% 5%
6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 40% 39% 40%
20% 20% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 22% 21%
28% 28% 27% 27% 27% 27% 26% 26% 26% 26%
5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 6% 7%
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
40% 40% 39% 39% 39% 38% 38% 37% 36% 36%
22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22% 22%
25% 25% 25% 25% 26% 27% 28% 29% 29% 30%
6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5%
7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
35% 35% 34% 34% 34% 33% 33% 34% 34% 34%
22% 22% 23% 22% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23%
30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 30% 29% 28% 28%
5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4%
6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%
1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4%
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
33% 31% 30% 29% 27%
24% 24% 25% 26% 26%
26% 24% 23% 21% 20%
5% 5% 5% 4% 4%
7% 7% 7% 7% 7%
6% 8% 10% 13% 15%
Demand and supply for liquid fuels

Growth
Mb/d 2017 2017 - 2040
Demand 98.2 9.6
OECD -9.1
India 4.8
China 2.7
Other Asia 3.6
Africa 3.1
Mid East 1.7
Other 2.8

Growth
Mb/d 2017 2017 - 2040
Supply 98.1 10.0
Non-OPEC decline -3.1
US 5.1
Brazil 2.3
Russia 1.2
OPEC 4.4
0.0
0.0
Liquids demand

Mb/d 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Cars 17.0 20.0 21.0 22.0 22.3 22.8 22.2
Trucks 20.0 22.0 23.8 24.0 24.2 24.4 23.5
Non-road 11.4 11.3 13.0 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.6
Non-combusted 13.0 14.4 16.5 18.1 19.4 20.7 22.0
Industry 12.5 12.5 12.6 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.3
Buildings 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.3 10.0 9.6 9.1
Power 4.6 4.5 4.2 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.1

Cars include 2- and 3-wheelers. Trucks includes most SUVs in North America.
Non-road includes aviation, marine and rail
Liquids demand average annual growth
2005- 2010- 2015- 2020- 2025-
Mb/d 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Transport 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.2
Non-combusted 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3
Industry -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.0
Buildings -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.0 -0.1
Power -0.1 -0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1
Total 0.8 1.3 1.4 0.7 0.3
2030- 2035-
2035 2040
0.2 -0.2
0.3 0.3
0.0 0.0
-0.1 -0.1
-0.1 -0.1
0.3 -0.0
Demand and supply of oil*

Mb/d 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974

Supply 48.5 51.3 54.2 59.0 59.2
Supply with no new approvals after 2017†

ET demand
Greater reform demand
Single-use plastics ban demand
Rapid transition demand
More energy demand
Less globalization demand

* excluding GTLs and CTLs

† Based on IEA’s WEO 2018 assumption if future investment is limited to developing existing fields and there was no investm
 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984
56.4 61.0 63.4 64.0 66.7 63.6 60.2 58.0 57.4 58.5

ting fields and there was no investment in new production areas

1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994
58.3 61.4 61.8 64.2 65.2 66.7 66.5 67.1 67.5 68.6
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
69.7 71.5 73.9 75.3 74.1 76.3 76.5 76.2 79.7 82.6
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
83.6 84.1 84.0 84.7 82.9 85.3 86.0 88.2 88.7 90.9
2015 2016 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
93.7 94.3 95.1
95.1 88.1 69.4 54.8 43.2 34.0

95.1 98.3 100.7 101.6 102.6 102.5

95.1 98.3 100.7 101.6 103.3 105.6
95.1 98.3 100.3 99.8 98.3 96.4
95.1 94.8 94.2 91.7 88.0 81.8
95.1 102.7 111.7 118.5 124.5 128.4
95.1 95.6 95.7 96.0 96.7 96.3
US liquids supply

Mb/d 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Tight oil 0.4 0.8 4.6 7.9 10.1 10.3 9.8
NGLs 1.7 2.1 3.3 5.0 6.0 6.5 6.6
Other 6.0 6.5 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.4 6.1
2040
8.4
6.4
5.5
OPEC supply and market share

Mb/d 2017 2025 2030 2035 2040

OPEC supply 40.0 37.8 38.8 41.5 44.4
OPEC market share 41% 36% 36% 38% 41%
Change in oil supply - Greater reform vs. ET scenario

Mb/d 2025 2030 2035 2040

Low-cost producers* 0.0 0.1 1.4 5.1
Oil sands 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7
US tight oil 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.5
Tight oil outside US 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.7
Other 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2

* Low-cost producers: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and Russia

Oil demand

Mb/d 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

ET scenario 86.3 87.3 88.1 89.5 90.2 92.0 93.7 95.2
Greater reform 86.3 87.3 88.1 89.5 90.2 92.0 93.7 95.2
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
98.3 100.7 101.6 102.6 102.5
98.3 100.7 101.6 103.3 105.6
Global liquids supply

Mb/d 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

Crude and condensates 68.46 75.24 83.66 84.03 84.15
NGLs 6.29 8.02 12.50 15.17 15.92
Other liquids* 1.89 4.22 5.69 7.43 7.95

Global Other liquids*

Mb/d 2017 2040

Biofuels 2.4 4.1
Other 2.9 3.9

Global NGLs

Mb/d 2017 2040

US 3.7 6.4
Middle East 3.9 5.4
Other regions 3.3 4.1

*Other liquids includes biofuels, GTL/CTL and refinery gains

Demand and supply growth by product, 2017-2040

Refinery Non-refinery
Mb/d supply supply
Total liquids 3.0 7.0
LPG & Naphtha 0.9 4.7
Jet/kerosene 2.4 0.2
Gasoline 0.4 1.4
Diesel -0.8 0.6
Fuel oil -0.3 0.0
Other 0.5 0.0
Refining throughput growth, 2017-2040

Mb/d
World 3.2
China 0.8
India 3.7
Middle East 1.2
From planned capacity additions (2017-23)* 7.6
Reduction required in existing refining system -10.1

*Assumes planned capacity runs at 85% utilisation rate

Gas demand and production, 2017 - 2040

Growth
Bcm 2017 2017 - 2040
Demand 3670 1699
US 218
Middle East 295
China 400
Other Asia 146
Africa 195
Others 446

Growth
Bcm 2017 2017 - 2040
Production 3680 1690
US 397
Middle East 396
Russia 216
China 218
Other Asia -45
Africa 245
Europe -102
Others 364
Gas trade, 2017 - 2040

Growth
Bcm 2017 2017 - 2040
Production 3680 1690
Produced within region 997
Pipeline 215
LNG 477
Gas consumption: by sector

Bcm 1990 2017 2040

Industry 771 1182 1749
Buildings 530 784 972
Non combusted 103 206 349
Transport 2 55 192
Power 543 1444 2109
Gas consumption: Growth by sector and region, 2017-40

Bcm Power Industry Buildings Non-combusted

US 134.9 38.7 8.7 13.9
EU 22.5 -14.7 -31.9 -2.7
Middle East 90.2 118.7 49.4 31.1
Africa 100.9 60.0 11.5 20.7
China 103.7 156.0 88.3 8.5
India 41.6 50.0 9.4 25.8
Other Asia 46.9 60.1 12.8 11.1
Other 124.6 97.9 39.4 34.5
Transport
21.7
16.8
5.3
1.4
43.6
4.5
15.1
28.5
LNG imports and exports

Bcm 2017 2020 2030 2040

Imports 390 497 666 871
Japan and Korea 165 159 156 161
China 53 96 118 139
India 26 33 57 112
Other Asia 40 70 137 198
Europe 62 99 126 135
Other 44 41 72 127

Exports 390 497 666 871

Middle East 123 122 160 227
North America 17 69 163 207
Australia 76 107 109 126
Africa 55 59 77 137
Russia 16 37 61 77
Other 103 103 97 97
Gas supply to Europe

Bcm 2010 2020 2030 2040

Domestic production 309 245 196 159
Russia 173 185 203 245
LNG 89 99 126 135
Africa 43 41 38 27
Other 13 21 26 24
Gas supply to China

Bcm 2010 2020 2030 2040

Domestic production 96.5 171.9 273.5 367.2
LNG 13.4 95.9 118.4 138.8
Russia 0.0 4.3 42.0 69.0
Other 3.7 45.2 69.9 65.9
Coal demand by region

Million toe 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

OECD 1163 1145 857 622 503
China 706 1749 1958 1737 1410
India 164 290 467 658 917
Other Asia 86 157 239 363 499
Other 237 265 259 267 297
World 2356 3606 3779 3647 3625
Change in coal demand by region

Million toe 1995-2017 2017-2040

OECD -166.6 -432.6
China 1227.4 -482.2
India 283.7 492.6
Other Asia 149.2 286.1
Other 13.6 29.8
World 1507.3 -106.3

Increase in coal demand (2017 - 2040)

Million toe Power Other

India 342.5 150.1
Other Asia 240.9 45.2
Renewables share of power generation: By source

% 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Wind 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 1.6% 3.4%
Solar 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.1%
Geothermal and biomass 1.0% 1.1% 1.3% 1.7% 2.2%
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
5.9% 8.4% 10.3% 12.2% 13.7%
3.0% 5.2% 7.4% 9.6% 11.9%
2.5% 2.8% 3.1% 3.3% 3.4%
Renewables share of power generation: By region

% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

EU 1.0% 1.1% 1.3% 1.6% 1.7% 2.1% 2.3% 2.8%
US 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 2.1%
World 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5%
China 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
India 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
3.2% 3.9% 4.6% 5.2% 6.2% 7.2% 8.5% 9.5% 11.6%
2.1% 2.1% 2.2% 2.4% 2.6% 3.1% 3.7% 4.2% 4.9%
1.6% 1.8% 1.9% 2.0% 2.3% 2.6% 3.0% 3.4% 4.0%
0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.7% 1.2% 1.5% 2.0%
0.7% 1.1% 1.2% 1.6% 1.9% 2.3% 2.6% 3.0% 3.5%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020 2025 2030
13.6% 15.4% 17.0% 19.2% 19.5% 21.7% 25.4% 33.7% 38.9%
5.7% 6.5% 7.2% 7.9% 9.2% 10.4% 10.9% 17.0% 22.1%
4.5% 5.2% 5.9% 6.7% 7.4% 8.5% 11.4% 16.4% 20.8%
2.4% 3.3% 3.9% 4.8% 5.8% 7.3% 11.8% 16.8% 22.1%
3.8% 4.1% 4.2% 4.4% 5.2% 5.9% 10.4% 16.1% 20.6%
2035 2040
45.9% 53.4%
29.0% 34.3%
25.1% 29.0%
26.4% 29.9%
24.6% 27.8%
Speed of penetration of new fuels in global energy system

Share of world energy

Years from reaching Oil Gas Hydro Renewables
Nuclear (1974)
1% share (1877) (1899) (1922) (2006)
1 1.2% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1%
2 1.4% 1.1% 1.4% 1.1% 1.3%
3 1.6% 1.2% 1.6% 1.2% 1.5%
4 1.9% 1.2% 1.9% 1.4% 1.7%
5 2.0% 1.2% 2.2% 1.7% 1.9%
6 2.0% 1.3% 2.2% 1.7% 2.2%
7 1.6% 1.3% 2.4% 1.9% 2.4%
8 1.8% 1.4% 2.9% 2.1% 2.8%
9 1.8% 1.3% 3.2% 2.1% 3.1%
10 2.2% 1.3% 3.5% 2.4% 3.4%
11 2.3% 1.5% 4.0% 2.8% 3.8%
12 2.2% 1.5% 4.7% 2.9% 4.2%
13 2.6% 1.6% 4.9% 2.8%
14 2.9% 1.6% 5.2% 3.1%
15 3.4% 1.6% 5.4% 3.0%
16 3.3% 1.8% 5.5% 3.2%
17 3.5% 1.9% 5.6% 3.3%
18 3.3% 2.1% 5.8% 3.3%
19 3.7% 2.1% 5.8% 3.2%
20 3.9% 2.0% 6.0% 3.3%
21 3.9% 2.4% 6.0% 3.4%
22 3.8% 2.2% 6.1% 3.7%
23 3.7% 2.2% 6.2% 3.5%
24 4.0% 2.3% 6.1% 4.0%
25 4.4% 2.7% 6.1% 4.2%
26 4.6% 3.0% 6.2% 3.9%
27 4.6% 3.2% 6.2% 4.1%
28 5.0% 3.5% 6.3% 4.3%
29 4.6% 3.5% 6.3% 4.3%
30 4.4% 3.8% 5.9% 4.4%
31 4.9% 4.3% 5.9% 4.5%
32 5.5% 4.7% 5.7% 4.6%
33 5.5% 4.7% 5.6% 4.8%
34 5.7% 4.8% 5.4% 4.7%
35 5.9% 4.7% 5.3% 4.8%
36 5.7% 4.9% 5.3% 5.0%
37 5.8% 5.0% 5.1% 5.3%
38 6.6% 5.2% 4.8% 5.1%
39 7.3% 5.4% 4.4% 5.2%
40 7.2% 5.4% 4.4% 5.5%
41 7.6% 5.4% 4.4% 5.5%
42 7.7% 5.4% 4.5% 5.5%
43 10.1% 5.3% 5.4%
44 11.1% 5.7% 5.6%
45 13.9% 6.0% 5.7%
46 14.5% 6.4% 5.6%
47 14.9% 8.2% 5.6%
48 14.9% 7.9% 5.5%
49 15.4% 7.9% 5.4%
50 15.8% 8.4% 5.4%
Renewables Renewables
(2006) - ET (2006) - RT

4.2% 4.2%
4.6% 6.2%
5.0% 7.8%
5.5% 9.0%
6.1% 10.5%
6.5% 11.7%
7.0% 13.0%
7.5% 14.1%
8.0% 15.3%
8.5% 16.4%
9.0% 17.4%
9.4% 18.3%
9.9% 19.3%
10.4% 20.3%
10.9% 21.1%
11.4% 22.0%
11.8% 22.8%
12.3% 23.7%
12.9% 24.5%
13.3% 25.4%
13.8% 26.3%
14.3% 27.1%
14.8% 27.9%
15.4% 28.7%
Nuclear power output

TWh 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

OECD 1825 1916 1933 2007 2055 2146 2213 2195
China 0 0 0 2 15 13 14 14
Non-OECD (exc. China) 176 180 179 176 157 164 180 181
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
2239 2311 2351 2409 2435 2353 2468 2475 2498 2430
14 15 17 17 25 43 50 53 55 62
178 199 213 227 236 245 238 241 251 254
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2412 2368 2418 2277 2079 2085 2104 2089 2078 2069
68 70 74 86 97 112 133 171 213 248
258 261 275 289 296 295 304 316 321 319
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
2193 2078 2017 1632 1316
396 533 732 984 1253
386 464 518 648 833
Hydro power output

TWh, annual average growth 1995-2005 2005-2017 2017-2030 2030-2040

China 20.6 63.2 21.9 7.0
Africa 2.9 3.3 12.5 6.2
Other Asia 2.1 9.7 14.2 7.9
S&C America 15.9 7.7 17.7 7.3
Other 1.3 11.2 17.2 7.4
CO2 emissions in ET scenario, 2017-2040

Gt CO2
CO2 in 2017 33.4

Population 7.4
GDP per capita 28.3
Energy intensity -25.3
Carbon intensity -7.9

CO2 in 2040 35.9

CO2 emissions by sector

Gt CO2 1995 2017 2040 - ET

Power 7.3 12.7 14.2
Buildings 3.2 3.3 3.2
Industry 6.4 9.3 9.7
Transport 5 8.1 8.8
CO2 emissions ET vs. RT scenario

Gt CO2
Year ET RT
1965 11.2 11.2
1966 11.7 11.7
1967 12.1 12.1
1968 12.7 12.7
1969 13.5 13.5
1970 14.3 14.3
1971 14.8 14.8
1972 15.5 15.5
1973 16.3 16.3
1974 16.2 16.2
1975 16.3 16.3
1976 17.1 17.1
1977 17.7 17.7
1978 18.0 18.0
1979 18.5 18.5
1980 18.4 18.4
1981 18.1 18.1
1982 18.0 18.0
1983 18.1 18.1
1984 18.8 18.8
1985 19.2 19.2
1986 19.5 19.5
1987 20.1 20.1
1988 20.8 20.8
1989 21.2 21.2
1990 21.3 21.3
1991 21.3 21.3
1992 21.4 21.4
1993 21.4 21.4
1994 21.7 21.7
1995 21.9 21.9
1996 22.5 22.5
1997 22.7 22.7
1998 22.8 22.8
1999 23.1 23.1
2000 23.6 23.6
2001 23.9 23.9
2002 24.5 24.5
2003 25.7 25.7
2004 27.0 27.0
2005 28.1 28.1
2006 29.0 29.0
2007 30.1 30.1
2008 30.4 30.4
2009 29.7 29.7
2010 31.1 31.1
2011 32.0 32.0
2012 32.3 32.3
2013 32.8 32.8
2014 32.9 32.9
2015 32.8 32.8
2016 33.0 33.0
2017 33.4 33.4
2020 34.3 30.9
2025 34.9 28.3
2030 35.2 25.6
2035 35.7 22.3
2040 35.9 18.0
CO2 emissions in 2040 - ET vs. RT scenario

Gt CO2
ET 2040 35.9

Power -11.0
Industry & Buildings -5.3
Transport -1.7

LC 2040 18.0
CO2 emissions in RT scenario, 2017-40

Gt CO2
2017 33.4

Population 7.4
GDP per head 28.3
Energy intensity -28.6
Carbon intensity -18.2
CCUS -4.3

RT 2040 18.0
Primary energy consumption by fuel

Billion toe Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Renewables

2017 4.5 3.2 3.7 0.6 0.9 0.6
RT 2040 3.8 4.3 1.1 1.0 1.4 4.7
ET 2040 4.9 4.6 3.6 0.8 1.2 2.7
RT scenario in 2040: Energy demand

Billion toe
Transport 2.7
Industry* 3.7
Buildings 0.9
Power 9.1

*Industry includes non-combusted sector

RT scenario in 2040: CO2 emissions

Gt CO2
Transport 7.3
Industry* 5.2
Building 2.3
Power 3.2

*Industry includes non-combusted sector

RT scenario in 2040: CO2 emissions by fuel and sector

Gt CO2 Coal Gas Oil Net

Power 0.7 2.5 0.0 3.2
Transport 0.0 0.3 6.9 7.3
Industry* 1.6 2.1 1.5 5.2
Buildings 0.0 1.8 0.6 2.3

*Industry includes non-combusted sector

ET scenario in EO19 vs EO18: difference in projected levels in 2040

Million toe
By fuel:
Oil -115.2
Coal -110.4
Gas 41.5
Renewables 224.1
Nuclear -141.1
Hydro 1.2

By region:
China -295.9
CIS 76.9
OECD Asia 86.6
Other 32.6

By sector*:
Industry -178.2
Buildings 94.1
Transport 24.0
Non-combusted -39.8

Note: For comparison purposes, figures from the 2018 EO have been rebased to be consistent with the 2018 Statistical Rev
* Losses in the power sector have been allocated to end-use sectors
ent with the 2018 Statistical Review
Revisions in 2035 energy demand versus 2014 Outlook

Million toe
By fuel:
Coal -1153
Renewables 929
Oil & Gas -289
Other -209

By region:
China -790
Africa 69
India 242
Other Asia 169
Other -412

Million toe
China by sector:
Industry inc. non-combusted -678
Other -112

China by fuel:
Coal -14
Renewables -912
Oil & Gas -169
Other 305
Energy consumption growth by fuel and carbon emissions, 2017-2040

% per annum BP ET Scenario Min Max Sample average

Primary Energy 1.2% 1.0% 1.3% 1.2%
Carbon emissions 0.3% 0.0% 0.9% 0.5%
Oil 0.3% 0.4% 0.9% 0.6%
Gas 1.7% 0.9% 1.8% 1.5%
Coal -0.1% -0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
Nuclear 1.1% 1.0% 2.6% 1.7%
Hydro 1.3% 1.2% 2.1% 1.5%
Renewables 7.1% 3.7% 8.4% 5.5%
Energy consumption growth by region, 2017-2040

% per annum BP ET Scenario Min Max Sample average

World 1.2% 1.0% 1.3% 1.2%
EU -0.6% -0.2% -1.2% -0.7%
North America 0.1% -0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
OECD Asia 0.1% -0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
China 1.1% 0.8% 1.1% 1.0%
Middle East 1.9% 1.3% 2.1% 1.7%
Africa 3.6% 1.6% 2.8% 2.3%
India 4.1% 2.5% 3.7% 3.1%