Nearpeer Press Pack December 2019

Nearpeer CSS Monthly Press Pack December 2019
How to use this document?

his document was compiled by the CSS wing of Nearpeer to help CSS aspirants by providing
T them with all the important articles of last month from local as well as international
newspapers.
This will serve as an important guide in preparation as well as revision of not only current affairs but
many other compulsory and optional subjects such as Islamic Studies, Pakistan Affairs, Sociology,
Gender Studies, International Relations and Political Science.
This issue is designed to help the you in the following ways:

1- It will help you with catching up with all the happenings of the last month
2- It contains analyses of various issues of importance. Analyses is as important as knowing the
content of news
3- A diverse range of articles are selected from among local as well as international newspapers and
journals, so now you know you do not have to go through old archives of old newspapers
4- This will also serve as a quick revision guide for aspirants just before the exams
5- Candidates can use this issue in order to brush up their analytical as well as comprehension skills
6- Additionally, they can also use it to improve their vocabulary and its usage
All the Best!
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Table of Contents
Peace prospects for Afghanistan? (The News International) By: Nasim Haider ............................... 5
Green Transition (Dawn November,12) By: Rolf Holmboe ............................................................. 7
Pakistan’s Urban Transition (Dawn, November 13) By: Shahrukh Wani .......................................... 8
Why Trade Wars Are Inevitable (Foreign Policy) By: Michael Pettis .............................................. 10
Pakistan’s New Diplomacy (Arab News) By: Dr. Hassan Askari Rizvi ............................................ 14
Impacts of Punjab Forensic Science Agency (The Nation) By: Yasir Habib Khan ............................ 15
The Kartarpur Factor (Dawn, November 15) By: Ashraf Jehangir Qazi........................................... 18
FATF and social reforms (The Nation) By: Samson Simon Sharaf.................................................. 20
Pakistan’s Standing in Global Women’s Index Comes with Few Surprises By: Rafia Zakaria .......... 22
Iraq Protests (Dawn) Editorial..................................................................................................... 23
Is a Resolution of the GCC Crisis Imminent (Al-Jazeera) By: Ibrahim Fraihat.................................. 24
Kabul River: The Key (28 November, Dawn) By: Hassan Abbas ..................................................... 26
China's Problems Show why it Won't Supplant US By: Dr. John C Hulsman .................................. 28
How to deal with the pedophile problem By: Rafia Zakaria ......................................................... 29
Why UK’s Brexit Election is Truly Significant By: Dr. John c Hulsman ........................................... 31
Bolivian Backlash (Dawn, November 13) By:Mahir Ali ................................................................. 32
Divine Punishment (Dawn, November 15) By: Nikhat Sattar ........................................................ 33
New tariff policy; uphill task starts now! (The Nation) By: Khalid Mahmood Rasool ..................... 35
Babri Verdict (Dawn, November 16) By: AG Noorani ................................................................... 36
Pakistan’s Reform Plans (Dawn, November 22) By: Saqib Sheerani ............................................. 38
Ground Zero (Dawn, 23 November) By:Irfan Hussain ................................................................... 40
Security Mosaic (Dawn, November 8) By:Muhammad Ali Babakhel............................................. 41
Kashmir Could Wreck India’s Reputation Among Afghans (Foreign Policy) By: Hari Parsad............ 43
The Revolt Against Populism (The New York Times) By: David Brooks .......................................... 45
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soldier in a country where the US has lost

Peace prospects for Afghanistan? nearly 2,400 soldiers.
(The News International) So Trump had to clean the mess himself. It is

By: Nasim Haider yet to establish who stopped Trump, but he
kept his Twitter trolling in control when the
Taliban attacked the wagon of a Canadian
A
high-profile prisoner exchange has
security company the day prisoners were
given a new lease of life to the resuscitating
being exchanged. Or even a week later, when
peace process in
the militants shot down a Chinook helicopter,
Afghanistan. The moment has also emerged
leaving at least two American servicemen
as a significant move in US foreign policy
dead.
towards the region.
This mature approach signalled Trump’s
But, as expected, it has ended up belittling the
seriousness. It has also reopened the doors for
Afghan government, yet again. After all,
signing the agreement. The earlier fateful
Kabul only played an observer role as Taliban
draft was not made public. The world will
prisoners Anas Haqqani, Haji Mali Khan and
hardly know how far the new agreement is
Hafiz Abdul Rashid flew from Bagram to
more tilted to fulfil the demands of the
Doha. Or American professor Kevin King
Taliban.
and his Australian Colleague Timothy Weeks
were subsequently released.
The fact is that the US administration’s
reckless behaviour has strengthened the
Both professors of American University
Afghan Taliban. And Trump’s attitude of
Kabul were abducted by the Haqqani group
keeping everything about the Afghan issue
in 2016. The group has long been blamed for
under wraps has estranged both Democrats
violence against the Afghan government and
and Republicans.
coalition forces alike. Yet, Anas Haqqani –
the son of the creator of the group – was
The result has been President Trump losing
allowed to leave for Doha.
the liberty of making independent decisions
about the peace process. The Congress that
His release speaks volume about the weak
had long complained about not being taken
negotiating position of Washington. Since
into confidence has assumed reigning leading
2001, be it Bush or Obama, if any American
role. A bipartisan bill has empowered it with
president had ever asked Pakistan to ‘do
oversight power.
more’, it only meant taking stricter action
against the Haqqani Network.
The Trump administration is now bound to
submit final agreement with the Taliban to
Thanks to his foreign policy faux pas,
the Congress. The US secretary of state will
President Trump reduced himself to giving in
also have to assure the body that the Taliban
to the Afghan Taliban’s demand and at the
and Haqqani Network have broken ties with
same time thanking Prime Minister Imran
Al-Qaeda.
Khan for Pakistan’s role in facilitating the
prisoner exchange.
The region would have taken a sigh of relief
had the Congress added some assurances
Trump, even otherwise, was left with little
against Daesh. Over the last few years, the
options. He was responsible for blowing up
terrorist organization has spread its tentacles.
the peace deal that Ambassador Khalilzad
And, despite claims of victory against Daesh
had tirelessly negotiated with the Taliban.
by the Ghani government, it is posing a
That too, for an attack that killed an American
danger not only to Afghanistan but also to
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Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan and the ex- solid steps for silencing the guns. The
Soviet states. ceasefire can be observed zone by zone or
city by city. In any case, there should be
But it is encouraging that Washington has at guarantees that intense fighting to dominate
least recognized that lasting peace can only other regions does not ensue.
be achieved by taking at least Moscow,
Beijing and Islamabad on board. By attending To achieve sustainable peace, an
the four-party talks in Moscow, Ambassador implementable strategy must also be devised
Khalilzad has secured a consensus to promote to socially and economically integrate the
a negotiated settlement. Taliban. In 18 years, the US has failed to get
rid of them or evolve some political groups
Even, otherwise, the US has lost monopoly that could challenge them.
on dialogue. When Trump abruptly called off
talks in September, the Taliban enjoyed the Without a role, the unintegrated 150,000
warmth elsewhere. Their delegation met Taliban will remain a threat to the security of
Russia’s special envoy for Afghanistan Zamir the county. They are already counting the
Kabulove and his Chinese counterpart in days for the US withdrawal. Special Inspector
Beijing Deng Xijun to discuss the way General for Afghanistan Reconstruction John
forward. The Taliban know that a part of the Sopko has rightly observed that “If there is
One Belt One Road initiative may play a ever to be a true, sustainable peace in
pivotal role in boosting Afghan economy and Afghanistan, reintegration of the Taliban and
create much needed jobs. At the same time, other combatants will be a necessary
Russia along with the ex-soviet states can component of that process.”
help build some infrastructure.
Where will this integration lead to? Can it
Raising the eyebrows of the Trump serve as the basis for devising a strategy to
administration, the Taliban even landed in form a government representing all
Tehran. Iran has developed ties with the ethnicities?
militants after finding itself encircled by pro-
American elements in the region. Iran also The highly disputed presidential elections
critically views the American policy of pick have only aborted the democratic process in
and choose when it comes to peace-making Afghanistan. Kabul has only made a mockery
efforts with warring groups in Afghanistan. of itself by holding an exercise where
And, amid accusations of meddling, it is 900,000 votes are missing and another
flooding back hundreds of thousands of hundred thousand eliminated for one reason
refugees. or another.
Led by Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the The world is amazed that hatching votes for
Taliban delegation also enjoyed a stay in two months hasn’t produced a president in
Islamabad. To the benefit of the United that country. This requires the US and
States, Pakistan helped resume their direct regional powers to be serious as the Afghans
interaction with Ambassador Khalilzad. This have suffered enough.
facilitation has brought both Islamabad and
Washington towards a new level of The unfortunate fact is no one is ready to give
understanding. And Pakistan has come back power to the people. The ones who can are
in the game with much more recognition. supporting those which serve them well. It’s
a recipe for a long-term bloodshed.
It’s time to rush for a peace deal, followed by
an intra-Afghan dialogue that must culminate
in a wider agreement. Only that can ensure
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So, the longest military operation in Firstly, green transition in the energy sector
American history may end next year. But, would mean much lower electricity prices as
prospects of viable peace will remain elusive. well as a much smaller burden on Pakistan’s
troubled trade balance. The energy sector in
Pakistan primarily runs on fossil fuels — oil,
Green Transition (Dawn gas and coal. Consequently, electricity is very
expensive in Pakistan, and this is making
November,12) Pakistan less competitive economically. The
By: Rolf Holmboe heavy dependence on imported oil and gas is
also undermining Pakistan’s trade balance
and is a major component of the current
T HE global demand for green transition

is growing, especially among the
youth who will inherit our Earth. It is
no longer seen as the responsibility of just the
government, it is the responsibility of every
economic crisis.
Solar and wind turbines can produce

electricity at half the price of oil and coal or
better. With the help of pioneering wind
public institution, company and citizen to do turbine giant Vestas and others, Denmark has
what they can in their domain. It was the the world’s highest amount of electricity
pledge of more than 70 nations at the UN from renewables approaching 70pc in 2020,
Climate Action Summit in New York on Sept but at the same time has the lowest load-
23 to make concrete plans now for how to shedding and one of the lowest production
reach the goal of climate neutrality by 2050. cost levels in the world.
In Pakistan, there are still voices arguing Those who can produce sustainably will be
against green transition. Some say that the the winners.
countries that industrialised first, created the
problem and that they should carry the burden The message is clear: the more renewable
of solving it. They say that Pakistan is sources for producing electricity, the better
responsible for only 1pc of carbon emissions, for the trade balance and for lower energy
so it does not matter much anyway. Climate prices. And it would make Pakistani
aside, the strongest arguments for Pakistan businesses much more price-competitive in
are economic and with regard to resource the global markets!
survival. They are compelling.
Secondly, global consumers are turning to
sustainable production, and soon this will
also be reflected in tax incentives and
regulations in Pakistan’s two biggest export
markets: the EU and the US. Already, as
many as two-thirds of consumers have a
strong preference for sustainable products,
and this trend is expected to strengthen over
the coming years. Big enterprises like
Carlsberg and Starbucks are taking out plastic
from their line of products to meet those
expectations.
Moreover, it is only a matter of time before

an intensifying race to meet climate goals will
impose sustainability standards on products
being imported to, for instance, Europe. A
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little further down the line, Pakistan’s main For Pakistan, climate neutrality is not just
export markets will also put in place far something ‘nice to do’. It is a ‘need to do’ for
stricter regulations for products. survival. And on top of that it just makes good
economic sense.
Thirdly, building a circular economy is
crucial for Pakistan to preserve its resources. The green entrepreneurs of today, whether
Pakistan is one of 10 countries in the world countries or business companies, will be the
that will be most affected by climate change. global winners of tomorrow.
Pakistan has numerous environmental and
resource challenges that will have to be Pakistan’s Urban Transition
resolved quickly, if, for instance, water
resources and the ability to grow agricultural (Dawn, November 13)
crops are to be available also for future By: Shahrukh Wani
generations.
V
In Pakistan, 85pc of water is used in IRTUALLY every country which
agriculture. The lack of waste management is has economically advanced in
slowly but literally turning Pakistan into a modern history has done so while becoming
wasteland. Air quality ranks among the urbanised. Pakistan’s path can be no
poorest in the world and that has an impact on different; to prosper, we need well-
health standards. connected, vibrant, and liveable cities that
bring people and firms together in dense
The message is clear: sustainable handling of environments.
waste, protection of aquifers from pollution
and saving on water resources are But such cities don’t emerge naturally; they
indispensable to Pakistan. are the result of policy actions. New York
City functions effectively because of its
expansive infrastructure, including an over
Solutions exist. Waste-to-energy and
10,000 kilometres-long elaborate water
recycling solutions could make it possible to
supply system.
put a value on waste and thereby finance
solutions. In Denmark, most waste is
recycled, some is turned into energy and only Building and maintaining such infrastructure
1pc goes into a landfill. The newest state-of- isn’t possible without effective governance
the art waste-to-energy plant in Copenhagen
can convert 500,000 tons of residual waste to structures. Take New York mayor Fiorello La
energy every year practically without the Guardia’s example. In the 1930s, he created a
emission of toxic fumes. The investment is cross-partisan coalition to replace a corrupt
expected to fully pay for itself through the network which had controlled the city for
sale of energy. nearly eight
In October, Copenhagen hosted the C40 decades. Over his three terms, he expanded
World Mayors Summit — with coordination the use of competitive exams to recruit public
among the largest cities around the world, officials, adopted new administrative
including Karachi. Cities are responsible for practices such as centralised purchasing to
70pc of global carbon emissions and 80pc of reduce corruption, and help set up a public
energy use, and that is why green and smart agency to provide urban housing.
solutions for cities are crucial for overall
global green transition. Innovative solutions If La Guardia and others like him hadn’t
are being developed and shared here — and taken measures to modernise city
Pakistan can benefit directly. governance, New York would look very
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different today. Such investments have paid This is where effective public policy comes
off, as demonstrated by the fact that the city in. To benefit from urbanisation, policy needs
has a per capita income that is 172 per cent to expand the good things about urbanisation
higher than the national figure. such as density and connectivity; and reduce
the downsides of urbanisation: crime,
Our policymakers have failed to understand pollution, and congestion. New York’s
the importance of city governance. Mayor La Guardia understood this. Backed
by federal assistance, his administration
Pakistani policymakers have failed to oversaw the rapid construction of bridges,
understand this importance of cities. Small highways, parks, and houses, transforming
wonder the people who move to cities in the city’s physical infrastructure.
search of prosperity face poor living
conditions. We’re several steps behind 1930s New York;
instead, Pakistan needs to first focus on
If Pakistan reverses this and manages its building three first-order conditions:
urban transition effectively, it can unlock
significant economic gains. By bringing First, build local urban governments which
people and firms closer, cities provide a are accountable downwards to the people, not
dense market for products and workers, upwards towards provincial or federal
where both can focus on interdependent governments. Pakistan’s record on this is
activities. Because of this inter-dependence, abysmal: when such governments have
cities allow people and firms to learn from existed, their purpose has not been to
each other, fostering creativity. decentralise control. Take Karachi where the
reverse has happened; more power has been
Think about it this way: if you’re in a city big taken away from the local government and
enough, you can specialise in a narrow but fragmented between various provincial
effective set of skills and find a firm agencies, making accountability impossible.
interested in hiring those skills. After work,
social interaction at cafes or restaurants Punjab doesn’t do much better. In Lahore,
allows you to learn from others. If you change provincial agencies provide vital services like
your job (which is easier in a big city), you water and sanitation. The 2019 local
take your skills to your new employer, government law might change this but it’s
enabling firms to learn from each other. anybody’s guess when elections will be held
and how much the law will be implemented
On a national scale, Pakistan can transform by the provincial government, which stands
its economic structure by moving people to lose power. There is the possibility of a
from agriculture, which is generally less repeat of what we’re seeing in Islamabad,
productive as it requires more people to where the elected Metropolitan Corporation
produce relatively little output, to has been in a tug of war with the unelected
manufacturing and services, which are Capital Development Authority over the
primarily undertaken in cities. But simply control of the city — a battle which now has
moving people to cities is not a condition that now gone to the courts.
unlocks prosperity; people could still move to
cities and find themselves in unstable, Ideally, urban areas need to have a single
informal jobs, unable to benefit from density. elected urban government with clear
Some katchi abadis in Karachi have housed authority to provide services like housing,
people for generations, but they remain poor. water and sanitation, and local transport.
Nationally, one in eight urban residents lives
in poverty. Second, to pay for our urban transition, we
need a robust urban finance base. This can be
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done by allowing local governments to raise

taxes, mainly from land and property (as land
cannot be moved between cities). Over time,
if these taxes can be tied to visible service
delivery, accountability will improve.
Why Trade Wars Are Inevitable
Currently, Pakistan is using this revenue
source ineffectively. Provinces have their
(Foreign Policy)
immovable property tax acts but their By: Michael Pettis
application is far from effective. For starters,
they are often based on outdated valuation
measures or proxies. Such is the case in
Punjab, where a rigid annual rental value is
used to levy this tax. Only now, with help
from the World Bank, is the Sindh
E ven as U.S. President Donald Trump
and Chinese President Xi Jinping announce
and then cancel tariffs in a seemingly
endless back-and-forth, it is a mistake to
view the ongoing trade dispute as simply a
government planning to revaluate properties. spat between the two. It is not a Trump-Xi
fight or even mainly a U.S.-China
This leads to the third point, improving urban one.
land rights. Land is a critical feature of
urbanisation: people need land to build In fact, when it comes to creating global trade
houses, firms need to locate themselves imbalances, China is not the only—or even
where they can get customers, and the the worst—offender. Its current account
government can use appreciation of its value surplus is no longer the world’s largest; the
to finance public investments. most recent data suggests China’s annualized
surplus stands at about $130 billion,
Ideally, land rights need to be transparent and significantly smaller than Japan’s (roughly
secure, so everyone knows who owns what. $180 billion) and Germany’s (roughly $280
Unfortunately, land in urban Pakistan is billion).
regularly exposed to competing claims.
Think how many times you have heard of The real problem is that, over the past two
people investing in real estate only to land decades, it has become increasingly difficult
into uncertainty. In Karachi, as Arif Hasan for the world to fix its massive trade
has argued, land is used as a political tool. imbalances; the very mechanisms that created
This is not what efficient land markets look
like.
These are some fundamental policy

directions. Our urban transition is already
well under way and will occur regardless of
what the government does or doesn’t do;
official statistics claim that 36pc of Pakistanis
live in ‘urban’ areas, but the World Bank puts
this at around 55pc. Whether it is 36pc or
55pc, we’re ignoring the proactive public
policy needed to manage this transition
properly, the consequence of which will be
felt for generations to come
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them also make them harder to absorb. That School of Public Policy, pinned China’s low
is because trade surpluses and deficits are consumption rate on Asian values that
mainly the result of domestic savings supposedly prioritized hard work and saving.
surpluses and deficits, which are themselves That explanation is wrong. It confuses
a result of domestic income inequality. Until household savings with national savings, and
such inequality is substantially reversed, while the Chinese are indeed hard workers, so
high-saving countries will continue to use are workers everywhere. China’s extremely
trade as a way to pass the effects of their high national savings rate, like that of all the
distortions onto other nations, such as the major surplus countries, is not driven by the
United States. This makes global trade thrift of ordinary households but by the fact
conflict nearly inevitable—regardless of who that the country’s workers and retirees earn a
sits in the Oval Office. For the United States, disproportionately low share of national
the only way out may be reconsidering how income, which diminishes their purchasing
willing it is to absorb everyone else’s power.
excesses.
In fact, during the past two decades, the share
Contrary to conventional wisdom, toay’s of Chinese income earned by Chinese
trade surpluses are not the result of households has been the lowest of any
exceptional manufacturing efficiency or country in modern history. That means that
unusually hard-working and high-saving Chinese workers can consume only a small
workforces. In fact, the household savings share of what they produce.
rate in Japan, the country with the world’s
second-largest trade surplus, has been The corollary is that an unusually high share
roughly zero for the past 15 years. Instead, in of income goes to Chinese businesses and to
countries such as Germany, Japan, and South local governments—largely a result of direct
Korea, large trade surpluses were the natural and hidden subsidies for production that are
consequence of policies that, in the name of paid for by ordinary households. Beyond
competitiveness, effectively lowered sluggish wage growth relative to productivity
citizens’ purchasing power for the benefit of growth, these hidden subsidies include an
the banking, business, and political elite— artificially depressed exchange rate, lax
and the companies they controlled. environmental regulations, and, most
importantly, negative real interest rates that
Because its imbalances are so extreme, China have the effect of transferring income from
is the most obvious case in point. By household savers to subsidize the borrowing
definition, a current account surplus is equal of state-owned enterprises and local
to an excess of domestic production over governments. Rather than being spent on new
domestic spending on consumption and goods and services, the resulting profits are
investment. With the highest investment rate invested in financial assets abroad. Trade
in the world, perhaps in history, China ought surpluses are the inevitable consequences.
to be running a current account deficit.
However, because China’s consumption rate China is not unique. For different reasons,
is so low, the value of everything China Germany has also been a model of wage
produces still eclipses the value of everything suppression to the benefit of business profits.
China consumes or invests domestically. To Since the Hartz labor reforms of the early
offload the excess income, it runs a trade 2000s, suppressed wage growth has led to
surplus and invests in financial assets abroad. rising income inequality and has boosted the
relative share of business profits, both of
For a long time, observers such as Kishore which automatically forced up the country’s
Mahbubani, the former dean of the National savings rate and shifted Germany from a
University of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew country with a small current account deficit
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to the nation with the largest surplus in the transformed into a seemingly permanent U.S.
world. trade deficit.
Chinese and German workrs’ woes may seem Trade theory tells us that these kinds of
like primarily domestic problems, but in a imbalances cannot persist indefinitely.
globalized world, distortions in the way Usually, automatic adjustments—including
income is distributed in one country can be rising consumer prices, strengthening
transmitted to others through trade. That currencies, and soaring asset values for
matters especially to the United States, which surplus countries and the reverse for deficit
plays a unique role in meeting the financial countries—eventually eliminate deficits and
needs of the rest of the world. surpluses. The fact that certain countries have
nonetheless run surpluses for decades, while
Because the U.S. economy is the world’s others have run deficits, is evidence that the
largest and most diversified, and supports the global trading system is not working as it is
most flexible and best-governed financial supposed to.
markets in the world, it has been the natural
home for individuals, businesses, and There is a cost to this failure. Surplus
governments looking to store wealth abroad countries’ ability to export their excess
that they cannot or will not invest at home. savings and production abroad sharply
About half of the world’s excess savings tend reduces the pressure on them to rebalance
to end up in the United States, with another income at home. What is more, in the race for
quarter flowing to other economies with competitiveness with surplus countries,
similarly open and sophisticated financial deficit countries must also allow, or even
markets (such as the United Kingdom). encourage, downward pressure on their own
wages. In this globalized system, rising
The United States, in other words, for income inequality is both the cause and a
decades has been a net importer of foreign consequence of international trade
capital, not because it needs foreign capital competition.
but rather because foreigners need
somewhere to stash their savings. But The questio, of course, is what a U.S.
inevitably that also means the United States president should do. In standard economic
has had to run trade deficits that have theory, the financial inflows from the rest of
persisted for decades. From a net exporter in the world should have added to Americans’
the 1950s and 1960s—when the United own savings and led to higher levels of
States shipped food, manufactured products, domestic investment. But with U.S. financial
and capital to the rest of the world’s major markets already flush with capital (offered at
economies, whose productive capacity had the lowest rates in history), and American
been destroyed by two world wars—by the businesses sitting on piles of unused cash,
1970s the balance had started to shift. that is not what happened. Instead, overall
spending outpaced production, and American
By then, the advanced economies had been savings declined. This, too, was inevitable: If
largely rebuilt, and the world was no longer foreign capital inflows do not cause
short of productive capacity. On the contrary, investment to rise—as was clearly the case in
it now needed additional demand to absorb all the United States—they must cause savings
the goods and services being provided by the to decline.
rebuilt economies of countries like Germany
and Japan. As the American consumer Put another way, foreign savings displaced
became key, the U.S. trade surplus, through domestic U.S. savings. This happens in
which it shipped savings to a world countless ways. For example, foreign capital
desperately short of investment, was inflows can bid up the prices of stocks and
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real estate, making consumers feel richer and Today’s trade war is not really a conflict
encouraging them to spend more. Local between the United States and China as
banks, responding to a glut of cash, can lower countries, nor is it even a broader conflict
lending standards to domestic borrowers in between deficit countries and surplus
order to increase credit. Infusions of foreign countries. Rather, it is a conflict between
capital can cause the dollar to appreciate, economic sectors. Bankers and owners of
which encourages spending on foreign capital in both the surplus and the deficit
imports at the expense of domestic countries have benefited from suppressed
production. Factories that can no longer wages, rising profits, and increased mobility
compete can fire workers, who begin to tap of international capital. Workers in the
into their rainy day funds or borrow. The surplus countries paid for the imbalances in
government may expand the fiscal deficit to the form of lower incomes and depreciated
counter the economic slowdown. currencies. Workers in the deficit countries
paid for the imbalances in the form of higher
Put together, these actions drive down U.S. unemployment and rising debt. Reversing
savings. Indeed, the widespread belief that inequality and other distortions in income
persistently low savings over the past four distribution in both the surplus and the deficit
decades reflected spendthrift American countries is therefore the only durable way to
habits turns out to have been wrong. The end the trade war.
United States does not import capital because
it has a low savings rate—it has a low savings In the long run, future U.S. administrations
rate because it is forced to absorb imported will have to tackle income inequality either
capital. through tax reform or by tilting the playing
field in favor of workers and the middle
This was not as much of a problem several class—for example by reducing the costs of
decades ago, when the U.S. economy was health and education, improving social
much larger relative to the others in its trade infrastructure, raising minimum wages, or
orbit. During the Cold War, meanwhile, there even strengthening labor unions. But before
was added incentive to fill this role because it they can do that, they will have to fix the
gave the country increased geopolitical American role in the global imbalances by
leverage. However, as the size of the U.S. making it more difficult for foreigners to
economy shrank relative to those of its dump excess savings into U.S. financial
trading partners, the cost of playing the markets. That could take many forms, but by
balancer rose, and it was always only a far the most efficient would be a one-off entry
question of time before the country would no tax on foreign capital inflows. Such a tax
longer be able or willing to play its traditional would eliminate the current account deficit
role. by addressing it at its origin in the capital
account surplus. It would have the additional
Once the United States was unable to benefit of forcing the cost of adjustment onto
continue absorbing so much of the world’s banks and financial speculators, unlike
excess savings, the global system risked tariffs, which force the cost onto businesses
coming to a chaotic stop: Because no other and consumers.
country was large enough to play this role—
and no country wanted to—there was no The alternative is ugly. As the British
replacement. Trade conflict was inevitable. economist John A. Hobson argued in 1902,
That is why the trade war with China the economic driver of European imperialism
ultimately has little to do with Trump’s at the end of the 19th century was extreme
personal animosities or reelection strategy. It inequality that reduced domestic spending
simply represents the most visible part of a and lowered the returns on financial assets
much deeper global imbalance. invested at home. Europe’s capitalists needed
www.nearpeer.org 13
to find places to dump their excess savings replace traditional diplomacy with
and production. They did so by force, ‘comprehensive diplomacy’, which
securing export markets abroad and recognizes the primacy of official and state-
guaranteeing returns on high-interest loans level interaction, but it supplements it with
with armies and gunboats. That ended in multifaceted societal interaction. It covers
imperialist conflict and, ultimately, war. several non-official activities including visits
of media and academic groups, student
Less than three decades later, the cycle exchanges, tourism, projection of heritage
repeated. In the 1920s, a new wave of and culture and art and architecture.
globalized trade and capital flows coincided Similarly, sports and cultural activities are
with soaring income inequality and rising also used to build a positive image of a
debt. The party came to a halt between 1929 country, especially if a country has
and 1931 and was followed by a vicious trade sportspersons of international repute.
competition that also ended in war. In each
case, a conflict between economic sectors— One area of comprehensive diplomacy is
one in which banks and the owners of capital religious tourism. Pakistan has major
were able to benefit at the expense of the religious places in the Sikh religion. Also,
rest—was represented as a conflict between followers of Buddhism have some of their
countries. It wasn’t a trade war then, and it historical sites in Pakistan. Important artifacts
isn’t now. Only when U.S. policymakers and structures of Buddhism are in Taxila and
realize as much—and get ready to tackle other areas in the northwest and north of
income inequality—will they be able to head Pakistan. There are Buddhist stone carvings
off the worst of the consequences. in Swat, KP, and tribal areas. The museums
in Peshawar, Taxila, and Lahore have
artifacts of the Buddhist era, including some
rare Buddha statues. A part of the history of
Pakistan’s New Diplomacy (Arab the Hindu religion can be traced back to
Pakistan. Several important Hindu temples
News) are in Sindh and Punjab. One well-known
By: Dr. Hassan Askari Rizvi sacred Hindu site is Katas Raj in Punjab. In
January 2019, the government of Pakistan
declared a 1000 years old Hindu temple in
T he inauguration of the Kartarpur

Corridor on November 9, 2019, that
links the Indian border with the Shrine
of the founder of Sikh religion, Baba Guru
Nanak, in the Narowal district of Pakistan, is
Peshawar as a national heritage.
Thousands of Sikhs from India, Canada, the

United States, the UK, and the European
Union visit Pakistan every year. The
a history-making event. The four-mile-long Pakistani government has decided to make
modern highway enables Indian Sikhs to special arrangements for the visits of Sikh
enter Pakistan and travel to the shrine on a pilgrims. The Hindu pilgrims from India have
day’s trip without a passport and a visa. Such also started visiting Pakistan in the last couple
a gesture is a major departure in the long of years, though their number is very small.
history of troubled India-Pakistan relations.
Pakistan took the initiative on the eve of the Buddhist heritage and civilization are partly
550th birth anniversary of Guru Nanak and located in Pakistan. Since 2012, delegations
India responded positively for the first visa- from Southeast Asian countries and Sri
free opening on their border. Lanka have visited Buddhist sites in Pakistan.
In May 2012, a Buddhist delegation from
The permission to Indian Sikhs to visit the South Korea performed religious prayer at
Kartarpur shrine in Pakistan’s attempt to the Peshawar Museum in front of the
www.nearpeer.org 14
Buddhist statue collection. Such delegations India, inspired by the RSS Hindu religio-
have visited from South Korea, Thailand and political ideology, does not want to soften its
Sri Lanka who performed their religious strident approach toward Pakistan. However,
ceremonies in Taxila and Peshawar. South Pakistan’s religious tourism and cultural
Koreans claim a special relationship with a diplomacy will boost Pakistan’s image,
small town named Chota Lahore in Swabi neutralizing the negative image created by
District (KP). They claim that a Buddhist terrorism-related issues in the post 9/11
monk from this town came to what is today period. The new diplomacy will increase
South Korea in 384 AD and introduced Pakistan’s diplomatic clout to withstand
Buddhism there. The number of Buddhist India’s diplomatic and conventional military
religious tourists has increased in the last pressures, and it will build counter pressure
couple of years. Pakistan sent Buddhist on India’s current Kashmir policy. Pakistan
statutes and Gandhara art artifacts to South stands to gain by its new and comprehensive
Korea, Sri Lanka and Switzerland for diplomacy and religious tourism.
exhibitions in 2016 and 2018.
Impacts of Punjab Forensic
Pakistan has a rich civilizational heritage that
draws a lot of attention at the international Science Agency (The Nation)
level. This includes Mehrgarh excavations By: Yasir Habib Khan
(Balochistan) and the Indus Valley
Civilization in Mohenjo Daro and Harappa.
Another important asset includes the art and
architecture patronized by Muslims rulers,
especially by the Mughal dynasty. Some of
these historical buildings, forts, and gardens
W hen investigation system, law
enforcement apparatus and
judicial mechanism grapple in the
darkness failing to find clue in the cases that
have been recognized by UNESCO as relate to our daily life and crime scene,
heritage sites of global significance. Punjab Forensic Science Agency (PFSA) is
Pakistan’s folk and Sufi music also attract the sole option to unearth the truth on
attention outside of Pakistan. There are scientific grounds with high accuracy.
ancient languages and sites in northern areas
of Pakistan, including the high mountains that Since its inception in 2009-2011, it has
attract academicians and mountaineers from helped resolved a number of high-profile
abroad. cases in which neither any lead or clue was in
sight. Whether it was Zainab rape-murder
The introduction of modern media and case that made international headlines,
information technology has increased the Chunian case in which 4 children were
opportunities for projecting Pakistan’s sexually abused and killed, identification of
heritage and historical and cultural sites burnt dead bodies in Oil tanker explosion
abroad. This helps to build Pakistan’s image case of Ahmedpur Sharqia and many others
abroad as land with history and cultural daily matters in which government
patterns that go back thousands of years. This machinery was in state of bewilderment and
is expected to build Pakistan’s soft image at did not know what to do, PFSA anchored its
the global level and strengthen its official- role in fixing the issues through DNA
level diplomacy. evidences, audio-video analysis, latent finger
prints, chemical examination matters and
other forensic advanced techniques.
The political dividends of Pakistan’s new
diplomacy will materialize slowly. The
opening of the Kartarpur Corridor is not Even in the cases pertaining to paternity,
expected to quickly improve India-Pakistan child legitimacy, animal theft and organ
relations because the BJP government in
www.nearpeer.org 15
transplant, PFSA makes a difference by the digits below the surface. Alternatively the
providing its forensic services. perpetrator may attempt to change the serial
number. Various techniques and reagents
No doubt credit goes to PFSA Director have been used to successfully restore these
General Dr. Muhammad Ashraf Tahir who original numbers.
has been upholding the supremacy of
excellence and professionalism along with It is learnt that PFSA is also trying to seek a
his capable team. He is going to revolutionize law helping to collect firearms used by police
our daily life and crime landscape by department to increase transparency in the
equipping PFSA with DNA data collection, system. Similarly, a legal framework is direly
Firearms data collection and fingerprints data needed to collect inclusive fingerprints data.
collections first time in the history of In comparison to NADRA that has data but
Pakistan. only tips of 10 fingers. NADRA does not
have all sides, full finger and complete palm
So far thousands of data of DNA, firearms data. However, PFSA will be collecting
and fingerprints have been collected. fingerprints data to be covering all aspects of
Legislation is in offing to help stockpile DNA finger and palm through modern apparatus.
data of all convicts in jails.
In the supervision of DG Dr. Ashraf Tahir,
According to DG Dr. Muhmmad Asharf Punjab Forensic Science agency management
Tahir, firearms include ammunition, guns, maintain a quality management system to
bullets, cartridges, cutter and others sharp or meet the requirements of international
pointed stuff. “Firearm investigation is a standard for laboratories ISO 17025:2005
specialty of forensic science focusing on the ASCLD-LAB International (American
examination of firearms and related subjects. society for crime laboratory directors
Closely linked to this is ballistics, which Laboratory accreditation Board) to achieve
relates to the flight path of projectiles, often high level of customer (Law Enforecemnt
associated with forensic science during the agencies) satisfaction.
investigation of firearms. This area of study
examines the path of a bullet from when it Forensic science sits at the intersection of
leaves the firearm up until it strikes the target. science, law, policing, government and
During investigations in which the use of policy. It is a complex ecosystem that has
firearms is suspected, a number of artefacts competing demands and drivers to deliver
may be collected for examination, including science to assist the justice system.
firearms, cartridge cases, bullets, live
ammunition, trace materials, and any material The United Nations Office on Drugs and
damaged by a projectile,” he said. Crime (UNODC), in collaboration with the
Punjab Forensic Science Agency (PFSA),
During the manufacturing process, legally recently organised a forensic science
produced firearms are stamped with a technician course for the personnel of the
uniquely identifying serial number. These UNODC-developed mobile crime scene
numbers are stamped into the firearm, a investigation units located in the districts of
process which also impresses the digits below Sialkot, Gujrat and Gujranwala.
the surface of the metal. Even though
criminals may attempt to erase these serial The Director General of the PFSA, Dr.
numbers to avoid the weapon being traced, it Mohammad Ashraf Tahir expressed
may be possible to restore these serial appreciation for the UNODC’s efforts, and
numbers to a state in which they are legible. stated that the PFSA is fully equipped to
Serial numbers are often erased by filing or process physical evidence as per international
grinding, which will not necessarily remove standards.
www.nearpeer.org 16
Forensic science is much less cut-and-dried (HVAC) are unique and without any parallel
than television dramas might suggest. When in Pakistan. The establishment of a Forensic
a DNA swab or a shoe mark lands on a Laboratory of this size usually takes 5 to 7
forensic scientist’s lab bench, it has already years in developed countries, whereas here
gone through many steps, each with their own this huge task has been completed in a
uncertainties. remarkable time less than 3 years.
These uncertainties are unavoidable, because The change from eyewitness testimony to
forensic traces typically represent the scientific physical evidence testimony is
aftermath of a chaotic event. The only option colossal in our Judicial System. Human can
is to manage these uncertainties through a lie, forget, can be threatened to appear in the
better understanding of how these traces are Court and can be frightened from the Crime
generated, persist, degrade, interact with each Scene but physical evidence is always present
other, and how the information they hold can at crime scene, as a silent witness. A well-
be interpreted. qualified and properly trained scientist can
with his / her knowledge make this silent
Establishment of Punjab Forensic Science witness speak in the Court of Law.
Agency is a concrete step towards
materializing a tolerant society by assisting The forensic training provides affordable
courts in disseminating speedy justice. It is continuing education, training and PFSA
providing forensic services in fourteen certification training to professionals
forensic disciplines. Integration and according to internationally established
unification of all forensic services under one competency standards.
roof reduce chances of mishandling,
manipulation, deterioration and The forensic training section serves the entire
contamination of evidence. Criminal Justice System and law enforcement
officers throughout the country. Each month,
The scientific analysis undertaken at Agency approximately 2-3 programs of varying
assist investigating agencies in successful length and complexity are offered and about
investigations and replace oral evidence with 100-150 officers are exposed to technical
the empirical testimony in courts of law. training. This training concerns the many
Reliable evidence are available to improve services offered by agency, so that the
conviction rate. It has been reducing the laboratory value of the evidence discovered
nominal justice gap in Punjab. The robust at a crime scene may be recognized and that
independent status of the Agency ensure the evidence may be properly handle.
transparency in handling and processing of
evidence. This training course focuses to the ability of
law enforcement officers to demonstrate
The establishment of Punjab Forensic proper techniques of locating, recognizing
Science Agency in Punjab marks new era in and collecting items of physical evidence,
our national history. Being a full service, state properly package storage and submit physical
of the art Forensic Laboratory, having 14 evidence, and interpret a crime scene to
disciplines under one roof is one of few of its develop a profile of a possible suspect.
kind in the world. PFSA is an innovative,
sophisticated, transfer of technology project
spreading over 53Kanals. It is fixed cost first
of its kind project constructed on Engineering
Procurement and Construction (EPC) Mode.
Its structure civil works, mechanical,
electrical and Air Conditioning System
www.nearpeer.org 17
in favour of the Hindu community. This

elicited condemnation from the Pakistan’s
The Kartarpur Factor (Dawn, foreign office and a response from the Indian
foreign office. The goodwill and possibilities
November 15) generated by the Kartarpur Corridor opening
By: Ashraf Jehangir Qazi may have been diluted by the decision of the
Indian apex court.
Opinions should only be based on facts
Love is wise. Hatred is foolish — Bertrand Kashmir has been in lockdown for more than
Russell a quarter of a year. The situation is likely to
get worse. The Line of Control cannot remain
quiet in such circumstances. India is not
W
HAT is the significance of
Kartarpur? Can it be scaled up to likely to reverse its decision on Kashmir in
impact India-Pakistan relations? the absence of real international pressure, nor
Can it be extended to a Kashmir settlement? is it likely to eliminate the Kashmiri
Many Indians see it as a ploy by Pakistan to resistance short of an exponential escalation
cultivate Sikh goodwill to counter India’s in its already massive human rights violations
policies towards Pakistan. Nevertheless, in the Valley. The international community is
Narendra Modi expressed his appreciation for well aware of a potential human rights
Imran Khan’s initiative. catastrophe in IHK. But, like with climate
change, it is currently not politically
In Pakistan the initiative is very welcome but motivated enough to avoid the worst
it is not expected to break any ice with India outcomes.
especially after the Aug developments in
India-held Kashmir (IHK). However, some In a worst-outcome situation, neither Imran
do hope one good gesture might lead to Khan nor the Pakistan Army will be able to
another including the possibility of Modi restrain the people of Azad Kashmir and
taking a more farsighted and statesmanlike Pakistan from responding. That will raise the
approach to Kashmir and India-Pakistan risks of an Indian assault on Pakistan with all
relations. its possibly existential consequences for both
countries. The very first and least of these
Coinciding with the opening of the Kartarpur consequences would be the closing of the
Corridor the Indian supreme court decided Kartarpur Corridor.
the Babri Masjid or Ram Janmabhoomi case
To avoid worst possible outcomes, the UN
Security Council will need to get off its butt.
While most of the major powers may be
inclined to concentrate their pressure on
Pakistan, this is not likely to succeed because
of the even greater domestic pressure in
Pakistan to stop a perceived genocide in IHK.
In such a situation, only the veto-wielding
powers in the UN Security Country would be
in a position to persuade India to relent in
order to avert a war, including the real risk of
nuclear exchanges.
An alternative scenario is for Pakistan to

abandon the Kashmiris in IHK to their fate
while maintaining a furious and largely futile
www.nearpeer.org 18
diplomatic campaign against Indian clear without the government having to

atrocities. There are many in Pakistan who shower praise on itself.
quietly or openly advocate such an approach
to ensure the survival of the country. Many What ‘out-of-the-box’ initiatives are
suspect the government is itself wedded to available to the prime minister? He could
this approach despite its public denials. consider a statement reiterating his
commitment to take risks for peace even at
This approach hopefully assumes the this hour of minimal hope. He could stun the
Kartarpur initiative might have the potential world by indicating a willingness to travel to
to set in train a series of developments that Delhi to make a joint statement with Modi in
could eventually convince India to review its which both leaders acknowledge the urgent
Kashmir policy, restore the status quo before need to address the following:
Aug 5, and resume dialogue with a Pakistan
that manages to get off the FATF grey list. (i) common threats especially climate
catastrophe;
But why would Modi respond to such an
approach? He certainly resents criticisms of (ii) the need to work towards eliminating
his policies but is under no pressure to revise conflict which could escalate dangerously for
them. Moreover, his Hindutva base would the two countries, the region and the world;
instantly reject him if he revised the Aug 5
decision. He sees Pakistan not India up the (iii) the core concerns of each other ie
creek. He sees Pakistan not India doing U- eliminating terrorism in all its forms
turns. He sees himself as having finally including state terrorism, and moving
settled Kashmir. He sees himself as the towards a principled settlement of the
embodiment of a triumphant ideology that Kashmir dispute acceptable to the people of
has given India great power status while Kashmir, India and Pakistan;
putting an end to Pakistan’s dreams of
Kashmir. (iv) curbing, minimising and eliminating
mutually hateful narratives, negative media
Modi may even see himself as joining an coverage, etc;
Asian trio of superpowers (China, Russia and
India) that leaves Pakistan out in the cold. He (v) the revival of Kashmir- and LoC-related
might see this as providing India even greater understandings and CBMs to reduce tensions
leverage with the US. He believes Indira and provocations;
Gandhi had an historic opportunity to finally
settle Kashmir during the Shimla negotiations (vi) a comprehensive plan of bilateral
in 1972 but was outsmarted by Bhutto. He exchanges, trade and investment, conferences
intends to do no such thing with Imran Khan. and seminars on a range of relevant issues;
In this scenario, Kartarpur will have been a and
one-off happening.
(vii) developing a national consensus in
What is to be done? Pakistan needs to keep its support of these initiatives.
nerve. It has to clean up its act on all fronts. It
has to structurally transform itself politically, The ball would be in India’s court.
economically and socially in order to achieve
stability and increasing prosperity and, just as
importantly, project a positive image to the
world which will allow its point of view to
register. None of this is happening. When it
does the people will acknowledge it loud and
www.nearpeer.org 19
FATF and social reforms (The Pakistan’s financial institutions, the central
bank, economic affair’s division, the banking
Nation) and insurance sectors, brokerages, portfolio
By: Samson Simon Sharaf managers, regulators, revenue departments,
transparency organisations and surveillance
& enforcement will have to work in unison
T he news on FAFT front is not good. In

the October 2019 plenary session
Pakistan was found fully compliant in
only one area. All the remaining 39 areas in
for a common objective.
This effort as reflected through more curbs by

banks is resulting in slowing economic
various shades of green and red are to be activities. Public is now generally avoiding
complied by February 2020. Pakistan was banking channels in contravention to FATF
warned and cautioned that unless the objectives on harnessing the informal sectors.
compliance was credible, blacklisting was a Whatever Pakistan’s compliance, unless
possibility. This was a very serious situation. APG clears the situation by February 2020,
nothing will change. This means that APG
In concert, there are smaller regional groups must review all progress by January 2020.
that act as the watchdogs on progress and
compliance on behalf of the plenary The second is October 2020 for a 40 point
meetings. These are International Co- deadline set by APG of ICRG. Though most
operation Review Groups (ICRG) covering points included in February deadline are
Africa/Middle East, the Americas, common, APG could prolong the case of
Asia/Pacific, and Europe/Eurasia. Pakistan Pakistan into the next phase and as admitted
falls under the Asia/Pacific Group (APG) by the minister, even beyond.
where traditional Indo-Pakistan rivalries set
in. Earlier this year Pakistan had requested What will happen to Pakistan’s status
FATF President to remove India from ICRG between the two deadlines is a confusion
as its propaganda against Pakistan was admitted by Pakistan’s minister of economic
hampering progress on technical grounds. affairs. The confusion also provides an
opportunity for a Houdini act for domestic
The fact remains that unless Asia-Pacific consumption. The fact remains that despite
ICRG endorses anti money laundering and jargon and political statements, Pakistan is
terror financing compliance, Pakistan cannot non-compliant for the time being.
be removed from the grey list by FATF.
Therefore Pakistan’s clearance by ICRG is
But the minister also made a very significant
the only way it can succeed at FATF.
remark. “Pakistan faces greater challenges
than many other countries because of its risk
The government as usual played with digits profile. Some countries had been removed
and language to stay clear of any arraignment from the grey list after just 80 per cent
in the public eye. The confusion thus created compliance while Pakistan was being
could be construed and interpreted either way pressurised to ensure 100pc compliance.
for the domestic consumption. Pakistan is being viewed from a very high
threshold; there is a political element to this”.
Pakistan has two important deadlines.
This political element combined with geo
The first deadline is February 2020 as strategy makes a lethal case. It brings to fore
indicated in the October 2019 plenary elements of sanctions, economic coercion
meeting. This is a fast track monitoring and manipulation well beyond the normative
mechanism though not impossible is objectives to harsh political realities.
nonetheless daunting. For this to happen,
www.nearpeer.org 20
Pakistan’s short term diplomatic success with advantage. This is called Financial Inclusion.
USA also backfired. The recently released It has both positive and negative effects.
State Department Country Report on
Terrorism though outdated plays a negative FAFT has made its case for financial
role in perception building against Pakistan. institutions right down to the grass roots. It
It notes that Pakistan being a member of APG fears that in informal, unregulated and
on Money Laundering has made serious undocumented financial services, a pervasive
efforts to meet the standards set by the global cash economy can generate significant
watchdogs but implementation remains money laundering and terrorist financing
uneven. It is followed by ranting of terror risks and negatively affect AML/CFT
groups patronised by the state and backing of preventive, detection and
Afghan dissident groups. This is the same investigation/prosecution efforts. At the same
propaganda, India uses in APG to incriminate time, dependence on mainly informal
Pakistan. financial services limit access to reasonably
priced credit and slows country’s
Pakistan’s knee jerk reactions to points raised development. If the funds are kept outside the
by APG-FAFT and unimaginative formal system, there is a limited multiplier
implementation by banks, FBR and other effect in the economy. At the same time, the
organisations have certainly acted in slowing poor have to rely on financial sources in the
down the economy. This goes to prove that unregulated sectors to meet their needs at
there is still no institutional frame work to exorbitant costs.
harmonise all FAFT related activities.
Pakistan’s top policy and economic planning FAFT estimates that 1.4 billion people, or one
team has individuals with stellar international quarter of the population of the developing
reputation. The question that lingers is that world, lived below an absolute poverty level
why despite a top heavy World Bank and IMF of $1.25 a day in 2005. More than 215 million
dispensation, the noose around Pakistan people (or 3% of the world’s population) live
keeps getting tighter? outside their countries of birth and sent an
estimated $325 billion to developing
Though the ‘political element’ as mentioned countries in 2010. Out of these at least 120
by the minister cannot be ruled out, it is the million live in Pakistan.
informal unknown element of FAFT that is a
major cause of concern for economic On the flip side, FAFT threatens the existence
managers. of Pakistan’s informal sector. This sector is
stronger and more robust than the
Readers need to realise that FAFT has mismanaged formal economy. Hence FAFT
emerged as an Anti-Money Laundering and objectives warrant a twin approach; reforms
Countering Financing of Terrorism Act within the formal financial sectors followed
(AML/CFT) system well after EU and China by micro level institutions that provide
began to assert their financial independence. succour to deprived sectors.
The instrument in its spirit is not linked to
Bretton Woods that complemented the Cold Pakistan’s Prime Minister despite his
War. With European dominance, it also compassion of a welfare state is caught in a
carries a wide array of ‘left of centre’ trio of paradoxes. The IMF-WB team that is
objectives targeting the impoverished and the micro managing the economy and the central
poor. Cognizance of economic disparities is bank leaves no space for sustainable growth.
an outstanding feature of FATF, only if This means making the poor poorer. The
concerned countries see it as an opportunity elites that form the core advisory group are
of poverty alleviation and broader public not known for reforms. Change will denude
their grip on power. Finally, the international
www.nearpeer.org 21
monetary system that works for ends of and conflict information affect women’s
geostrategy, does not want Pakistan to break well-being and indicates whether they will be
free. This leads to an ominous conclusion. able to thrive.
What of FAFT?
The news for Pakistan is not particularly
Meanwhile the middle class will become good. Pakistan (which had scored poorly
poor and the poor, poorer. Stranded at each when the index was first released in 2017)
base, it is a long way from home runs. failed to improve its position. In this year’s
index it ranked 164 out of 167 countries,
outdoing only Yemen, Afghanistan and Syria
all of which are active war zones. Scores were
poor across categories from the lack of
financial inclusion, legal discrimination via
laws etc. employment and many others. One
of the few categories where Pakistan actually
Pakistan’s Standing in Global improved its position was in the increased
Women’s Index Comes with Few disbursement of cell phones among women
but even that small gain is overshadowed by
Surprises the fact that Pakistan remains the worst in the
By: Rafia Zakaria region for even that category.
Pakistani women also scored poorly in
L ast month, Georgetown University

Institute for Women, Peace and
Security and Oslo’s Peace Research
Institute released the first update to the
Women’s Peace and Security Index that was
“financial inclusion” (although better than
previously) which considers the access
women have to financial institutions, credit
and other means of economic empowerment.
Similarly, Pakistan is the worst in South Asia
issued two years earlier. The project, which
in terms of the prevalence of discriminatory
ranks 167 countries around the world was
norms, social standards regarding what
geared toward discerning what strategies for
women can and cannot do and the general
improving women’s lives in different parts of
tolerance of crimes against women.
the world are working and which others have
failed. Using 11 different indicators and
A slightly better performance was noted in
collating data from a variety of sources
categories such as women’s own perception
including the World Bank and the World
of their security in their
Economic forum, the researchers tried to
communities. Pakistan also scored better in
create a snapshot of what it is like to be a
the tabulation of war-related fatalities, not a
woman in the world today. Undergirding the
particularly notable fact since unlike several
index, is the project’s premise that security
other countries at the bottom of the index,
Pakistan is not currently at war. Finally, (and
somewhat surprisingly) Pakistan showed a
lower prevalence of intimate partner violence
than many countries in the region, ranking
among the top rather than the bottom scorers
in South Asia.
Of course, some consideration must be given

to the fact that the ranking on that score is
relative and the bottom is represented by
Afghanistan which has both seen increased
www.nearpeer.org 22
deaths of women owing to conflict and has But despite all this, Pakistan should pay
long failed to prosecute or enforce any laws attention to the results. Regardless of whether
against domestic violence. or not Pakistan agrees with the rankings, the
reality is that the index is something that
Obviously, when the index was inaugurated affects a nation’s stature. Even more
two years ago, the idea was that the presence importantly, the fact that many other poor
of actual data on women was crucial in both nations, several even in the same region as
understanding female empowerment both in Pakistan (such as Bangladesh, India and Sri
terms of what was being achieved and what Lanka) have scored significantly better, could
remained to be done. point to the strategies of improving women’s
lives in environments that are very similar to
In the words of Judith Kelly, Dean of the ours. Whether or not the WPS Index is
Sanford School of Public Policy in North successful in its ultimate goal of ranking
Carolina, “This exercise of rating and ranking countries, its tabulation of a significantly
can be really powerful because countries, like large data set is an opportunity for the
human beings, think in relative terms and government of Pakistan to attend to its most
compare themselves with others.” neglected constituency — the country’s
women.
This is a valid point, but it does not address
certain crucial questions posed by the Iraq Protests (Dawn)
rankings. First, poor countries with few
resources would generally rank worse than Editorial
say Sweden or Norway, even if their men
F
were ranked relative to each other. In simple OR the past several weeks, Iraq has
terms, it is difficult to understand which of been witnessing intense turmoil, with
the factors such as poverty, lack of security regular street protests featuring
etc are ones that affect women thousands of demonstrators facing off against
disproportionately and which are the security forces. The latest incident took place
indiscriminate misfortune of both men and on Sunday night, when protesters tried to
women born in certain countries. storm the Iranian consulate in the holy city of
Karbala. A number of people have reportedly
Even more important is the absence of the been shot dead in the incident. Various
country’s relative power internationally in reasons have been attributed to the protests,
affecting its rankings. Countries with poor including rampant government corruption,
bargaining power, whether its with the economic stagnation and Iranian ‘meddling’
International Monetary Fund or with the in Iraqi affairs. The fact is that for several
World Trade Organization, effect their ability decades now, Iraq has been unable to stabilise
to pass down better lives and greater itself, for reasons external and internal. In
economic and entrepreneurial ability to their 1980, Saddam Hussein launched a ruinous
male and female citizens. This aspect of eight-year war to counter the Islamic
global inequity is left unattended in the index revolutionary government in Iran; hundreds
pushing the perception that the countries are of thousands died on both sides. Then in
competing on a level global playing field. 1990, the Iraqi strongman invaded Kuwait,
And along these same lines, there is history, which resulted in another war and crippling
the fact that some countries are post-colonial sanctions that had a devastating effect on
nations whose precepts and capabilities were ordinary Iraqis. And while the US-led
significantly altered by colonizing nations, invasion toppled him in 2003, peace and
which also finds no place in the discussion at stability eluded Iraq, with one wobbly
all. government following another, until the
militant Islamic State group devoured huge
www.nearpeer.org 23
chunks of Iraqi territory in 2014. Were it not

for support from Iran as well as the US to the
Iraqis, IS may well have been knocking on Is a Resolution of the GCC Crisis
the gates of Baghdad. It is this series of
unfortunate events that, arguably, are largely Imminent (Al-Jazeera)
responsible for the decay in Iraq today. By: Ibrahim Fraihat
Perhaps the core reason for the lack of
S
igns of de-escalation have recently
stability has been the Iraqi political elite’s started to appear in the Gulf,
failure to deliver. While Saddam Hussein was suggesting that after more than two and
a brutal dictator who showed no mercy to a half years, the Gulf Cooperation Council
opponents, the political system that followed (GCC) could finally be moving towards a
him failed, perhaps because — as in resolution.
Afghanistan’s case — it was implanted from
the outside and was inorganic. Today, an Earlier this month, Saudi Arabia, the United
informal confessional system holds sway in Arab Emirates, and Bahrain, which have
Iraq, with power divvied up between the Shia imposed a blockade on Qatar since June
and Sunni Arabs, and Kurds. While indeed 2017, officially announced they will
democratic rule is the only solution to Iraq’s participate in the Arabian Gulf Cup football
problems, Baghdad’s rulers must move tournament to take place in Doha later this
beyond the facade of democracy — political month.
parties, elections, parliament sessions — and
deliver on the basic principles of "This football decision is a very political
representative rule, such as good governance, decision," commented Abdulkhaleq
social justice and respect for fundamental Abdullah, a political science professor known
rights. Iraq’s oil revenues are calculated in to be close to decision-making circles in Abu
tens of billions of dollars. However, very Dhabi. "It is preparation for bigger things," he
little of this is trickling down to the common added.
Iraqi, thus fuelling protests. Blaming Iran or
even the American invasion won’t do. It is Furthermore, a senior Saudi official told
time Iraq’s political forces focused on service reporters that Qatar is taking "encouraging
delivery to ensure rights and prosperity for all positive steps" to mend relations with its
the country’s citizens, regardless of religious, neighbours.
sectarian and ethnic background.
www.nearpeer.org 24
In recent weeks, confrontational social media is, since the advanced American anti-missile
campaigns on both sides have also been toned defence system, the Patriot, was unable to
down as a confidence-building measure to protect a vital national asset like Aramco
create a more favourable environment for from drones, then the question arises: why
talks between the parties. should the Saudi leadership seek to purchase
more weapons and military technology from
All of this came on the back of Qatari Prime the US?
Minister Abdullah bin Nasser bin Khalifa Al
Thani's visit to Saudi Arabia to attend the Thus not only did the attacks seriously
emergency GCC summit in Mecca in the undermine the value of the $110bn-worth of
aftermath of the attacks on oil tankers in the arms deals that Trump promised to the Saudi
Gulf of Oman. It was the highest-level visit leadership in the spring of 2017, but more
by a Qatari official to the kingdom since the importantly, they revealed the security
siege began. vulnerability of Saudi Arabia and raised
serious concerns over any possible escalation
These de-escalatory steps are not happening with Iran or the Houthis in the future.
in a vacuum and are related to regional
factors, including the war in Yemen, tension Second, the September 14 incident also
with Iran and the Trump administration's demonstrated the disloyalty of the Trump
policies towards the Middle East. administration to its allies. Washington
refused to attack Iran in response and instead
While there have been several developments started bargaining with Saudi Arabia over
that have affected the situation in the region who should cover the costs of a US military
and made it more conducive to renewed deployment. Almost one month after the
dialogue, it seems the September 14 drone attack, the US sent 3,000 solders to the Gulf
attacks on the Saudi Aramco oil processing with the US president declaring triumphantly:
facilities have had a significant effect on "Saudi Arabia, at my request, has agreed to
Riyadh. They mark a turning point in Saudi pay us for everything we're doing."
foreign policy on many levels, including the
GCC crisis. Shortly after came Trump's decision to pull
out of northeast Syria, effectively abandoning
The impact of the attack on Aramco was its ally in the fight against the Islamic State of
much bigger than the financial losses the Iraq and the Levant (ISIL or ISIS), the
company incurred as a result of the damage Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), to
to its facilities and the temporary reduction of face a military operation launched by Turkey,
daily oil output. which considers it a terrorist organisation. In
Riyadh, these events were interpreted as
Regardless of where the drones came from - further proof that the US cannot be trusted.
Yemen, Iraq or Iran - the fact that they were
able to reach Aramco's facilities represents These two realisations - that no amount of US
the biggest American failure in the Gulf military weaponry can protect the country
since Donald Trump came to power. As a and that the US is no longer a reliable partner
result, it has upset what many assumed to be - seem to have necessitated a revision of
strong relations between Riyadh and the Saudi foreign policy and national security
Trump administration on at least two levels. strategy. Its results are already clear.
First, the successful attack put under question In late October, Saudi Arabia oversaw
the ability of Saudi Arabia to protect itself negotiations between Yemeni President Abd
through an alliance with the US and Rabbu Mansour Hadi and the secessionist
deployment of US military technology. That Southern Transitional Council, which had
www.nearpeer.org 25
been fighting for control of southern Yemen. region in the world, both by virtue of
C
In November, a peace deal was announced political boundaries and hydrology,
which Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman because all the region’s rivers drain
(MBS) described as an important step into closed basins (ie do not reach the
towards "a political solution in Yemen". open sea). The exception is the Kabul
River, which finds its way to the open sea via
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has also sought to the Indus — the key to opening a gateway for
de-escalate its conflict with Iran. The New CAS to seafaring trade if used for navigation.
York Times recently reported that "Saudi
Arabia and Iran have taken steps toward The School of Life, a global educational
indirect talks to try to reduce the tensions" enterprise, has identified lack of river
between them. Its main regional ally, the navigation in landlocked countries as one of
UAE, has also been involved in de-escalation the major geographical factors resulting in
efforts. Earlier this month, Emirati Minister poor economic conditions. Bolivia, South
of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash America’s poorest country, is landlocked; 11
said further escalation with Iran "serves no of the poorest African countries are
one" and that there is room for "collective landlocked. Asia’s poorest country,
diplomacy". Afghanistan, is also landlocked — although
more politically than hydrologically.
In this context, the overtures of blockading
countries to Qatar should not be surprising. A Historically, Kabul River had been used for
breakthrough in the frozen regional dispute is navigation. According to Article II of the
quite possible. After all, since Trump has 1921 Anglo-Afghan Treaty, “Afghanistan
failed to deliver on regional security, Saudi agrees that British officers and tribesmen
Arabia definitely needs a strong and united living on the British side of the boundary
GCC to deal with the enormous regional shall be permitted, without let or hindrance,
challenges. Kuwait's persistent mediation to use the aforesaid portion of the Kabul
efforts over the past two and a half years have River for purposes of navigation”.
ensured that the door for direct negotiations
has remained wide open. Research by Sheheryar Shafique, a Pakistani
scholar in multi-modal transportation
It is unclear yet whether these early signs of systems at the University of New Mexico,
re-engagement are going to lead to a full concluded that by using modern river
restart in relations between Qatar and its navigation technologies, ranging from solar-
blockading neighbours. Nevertheless, it is powered electric barges to integrated
safe to say that the upcoming GCC summit, navigation and control systems, it is possible
to be held in mid-December in the UAE, is to develop the Kabul-Indus river system into
already set to be substantially different from one of the world’s most modern maritime
the 2017 one which lasted only two hours corridors — connecting Jalalabad to the
instead of two days and further deepened the Arabian Sea.
rift.
Jalalabad can occupy a key commerce node
Kabul River: The Key (28 on the maritime trade route to Central Asia,
just as Singapore and Dubai are in their
November, Dawn) respective regions. The world witnessed their
By: Hassan Abbas transformation from fishing villages to global
cities; such could be the future of Jalalabad.
ENTRAL Asian States (including Economic benefits aside, historically, inland
Afghanistan) make up the largest landlocked navigation has fostered regional peace. In
www.nearpeer.org 26
Water: The Epic Struggle for Wealth, Power, downstream societies. For example, despite
and Civilisation, Steven Solomon concluded the Indus Waters Treaty, blended with a
that the Erie Canal (built in 1825) helped keep number of infrastructure projects worth tens
the union intact during the American Civil of billions each, tensions and distrust over
War. He also attributes China’s millennia- water between Pakistan and India have never
long unity to its Grand Canal, built 2,500 diluted. To sustain peace in Afghanistan,
years ago to facilitate river navigation creating yet another source of distrust or
between the Yellow and Yangtze rivers. After friction should be the avoided at all costs.
40 years of war, Afghanistan desperately
needs economic engines that nurture regional As peace returns to Afghanistan, now is the
peace. best time for Afghans and Pakistanis to
engage with each other in the mutually
Through a commerce hub in Jalalabad, beneficial venture of developing the
Pakistan and Central Asia could benefit too. navigational potential of the Kabul-Indus
The University of Central Asia’s Institute of river system by negotiating a treaty — a win-
Public Policy and Administration has win for both, and for the region too.
acknowledged that food production in CAS is
difficult and insufficient, while food imports To quote the late US diplomat Daniel P.
remain expensive in their landlocked Moynihan, just like the “[Erie] canal brought
disposition. River diversions for irrigation are the seaborne … trade right up into the centre
already overstretched to the extent that the of the American Great Plains”, Kabul-Indus
closed basin of Aral Sea has become one of navigation could bring seaborne trade right
world’s worst environmental disasters. into Central Asia. The Kabul River can be the
Pakistan, on the other hand, is a food-surplus key to liberating the region from the clutches
country according to USAID’s recent Food of poverty and sustaining peace.
Assistance fact sheets. A 2015 report
published in Dawn underscored that a deeper
penetration in the CAS food market is
possible for Pakistan. Pakistan could help
food security in the region and help reduce
the impact of the Aral Sea environmental
disaster. Maritime use of the Kabul River is,
therefore, an instrument of regional peace and
economic uplift.
Currently, however, both Afghanistan and

Pakistan are working in isolation and
conceiving or developing isolated projects in
Kabul River basin. These projects, mostly
short-term, non-synergistic, non-integrated
and environmentally unsustainable, are
falling short of their socioeconomic goals —
as concluded in the audit report of the Special
Inspector General for Afghanistan Recons-
truction.
Even worse, some of these projects may lead

to heightened regional tensions. Historically,
damming and diversion of rivers have
cultivated friction between upstream and
www.nearpeer.org 27
China's Problems Show why it economic miracle may be nearing its end. In
2015, each employed Chinese worker
Won't Supplant US generated only 19 percent of the amount of
By: Dr. John C Hulsman gross domestic product (GDP) an American
worker did. It has been estimated that, when
the superior productivity of American
M uch has rightly been made over the

past decade about the rise of China
to genuine superpower status —
the only possible long-term peer competitor
workers is taken into account, the costs of
manufacturing in China and the US are now
startlingly the same.
Likewise, the Organization for Economic Co-
to the US. Since Deng Xiaoping in December operation and Development estimates that
1978 first put in place the liberalizing Chinese corporate debt spiraled from 120
economic reforms that have utterly percent of GDP in 2012 to more than 160
transformed Chinese society, the country has percent in June 2017. And, for all its talk of
seen an astonishing 20-fold increase in its the merits of globalization, China remains the
economic output. most closed G20 economy, as measured by
The number of Chinese living in extreme investment restrictions and ease of doing
poverty over this period has decreased to 80 business.
million, merely a tenth of what it used to be. Further, China has a significant demography
Even more recently, between 2007 and 2015, problem, as its birth rate starkly declined to
China’s share of global output has 1.2 children per couple in 2017. The
impressively increased from 11 percent to 17 International Monetary Fund has estimated
percent. Streaking across the geopolitical sky that China’s working age population peaked
like a meteor, China’s rise is undoubtedly the in 2011. In 2013, China had 6.57 workers
geopolitical risk story of the past generation. supporting every person 65 or older — by
But, blinded by its out-of-nowhere success, 2050, it is projected this will be down to only
political risk analysts have overcorrected 1.14 workers, with almost half the population
from the sin of ignoring China to overrating then 65 or older. It appears China could get
it. Student-led protests began in Hong Kong old before it gets rich.
in June, igniting over a proposed extradition Even with an able ruling elite, these
bill that would have allowed suspects in the entrenched domestic and demographic
city to be sent to mainland China to be tried. problems will take years to overcome.
The provocative bill, which has since been Assuming (and it is a mighty assumption)
withdrawn, became a lightning rod for a more Beijing is able to master its formidable
general dissatisfaction of Hong Kong challenges, the realm of geopolitics also
residents over Beijing’s increasing influence stands in the way of any dreams it has of
over the territory. The protesters’ demands ousting the US as the pre-eminent country in
have become much broader, encompassing the world. For the only way for China to
calls for genuine democracy in local elections supplant Washington as the strongest force in
and establishing a neutral commission to look global politics for the foreseeable future
into charges of police brutality. Thus the would be for it to enter into a rock-solid
protests have morphed over the past five alliance with one of the fading great powers,
months into one of the most serious either Russia or Europe.
challenges to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s
authority since he took power in 2012. For all the flirting Xi and Russian President
Suffice it to say that internal dissent on such Vladimir Putin do with each other, there is a
a scale has the potential to inhibit China’s massive psychological barrier to a coherent
continued rise. Sino-Russian alliance emerging: Great
Domestically, China has significant Russian nationalism. Putin’s entire basis of
weaknesses too. Indeed, the Chinese rule, and the source of his enduring
www.nearpeer.org 28
popularity in his country, is that culturally he family and said he would upload the video on
is seen “The Good Czar,” strongly cowing the the Internet. Luckily for the other children of
aristocrats (in his case the oligarchs) and Pakistan, the family and the boy, took the
reasserting Russia’s place in the world as a courageous act of reporting the case despite
respected great power. To play second fiddle Ayaz’s threats.
to Beijing (as Moscow would assuredly have
to do for such an alliance to thrive) doesn’t Ayaz’s story is an example of just how
work for Putin either ideologically or manipulative and clever pedophiles are in
practically. As such, all the talk about a firm exploiting the holes in monitoring systems
Beijing-Moscow axis ought to be taken with and slipping through the cracks of law
a gigantic grain of salt. enforcement. Ayaz was able to do this not
Cementing ties with Europe is even more far- only in Pakistan but in several other places.
fetched. For all Trump’s bellowing, the US
and the old continent have marched (often In 2008, Ayaz who had previously been
unhappily) together geopolitically for 70-plus deported from Italy for having abused a child
years. The glacially moving European elite procured a high skilled worker visa for two
are not about to dramatically turn on a dime, years. Off he went to the United Kingdom
renouncing all these established ties and where he worked for the international charity
coherently deciding to decisively throw in Save The Children as a grant monitoring
their lot with Beijing. officer. The feat is remarkable, because not
Given the just-released (to The New York only was he able to pass through UK
Times) internal communist papers on how the immigration monitoring mechanisms without
regime has imprisoned an extraordinary 1 having been discovered as a pedophile, but he
million Uighurs in western China, it is safe to managed to get employment at a charity
say that a Europe that places great emphasis whose very purpose is to safeguard children
on human rights is not about to go in from abuse and exploitation.
decisively with the Uighur’s brutal jailers.
For all these reasons, we need to see the world In the meantime, Italian authorities were
as it truly is. China, while rising to great already looking for Ayaz on a different
power status, has myriad problems and charge of child abuse, and when they raided
geopolitical challenges ahead, which make it his apartment they found over 2,000 images
highly unlikely it will supplant America as of children being abused and tortured.
the greatest power in the world any time soon. According to authorities, the torture and
For at least the next generation, the US will sexual deviance in these photos and videos
remain the world’s predominant power was of the very worst kind. In addition to the
British charge, Ayaz was wanted in a case
where he had been acting as a go between
How to deal with the pedophile connecting a Swedish pedophile who said he
had Romanian children for sale with an
problem Italian man.
By: Rafia Zakaria
Pakistani authorities say that Ayaz slipped
through the cracks because they received no
T wo weeks ago, Sohial Ayaz, who had

been residing in the United Kingdom,
was arrested for brutally raping and
filming a teenage boy in Rawalpindi. In
addition to the cruelty he inflicted on the
information from British authorities when he
was deported. In addition, they like to point
out, Pakistan, unlike the British and the
Americans does not have a system via which
young boy, Ayaz threatened the victim’s pedophiles like Ayaz can be monitored.
Because of this, not only was Ayaz able to
return to Pakistan, he was also able to get a
www.nearpeer.org 29
job working for the government. In simple notation in their identity card numbers so that
terms, a pedophile who was most likely when they supply these numbers for gaining
raping and abusing children for the nearly ten housing, cell phones, computers etc., the
years between when he was deported and party who is providing them with these
when he was caught, was being fed and services know that they are interacting with a
clothed by Pakistani taxpayer money. known child abuser.
This is not the first time that this has Finally, there needs to be a more concerted
happened. Earlier in this decade, members of effort to name and shame those who are found
the notorious Rochdale Sex Trafficking ring, out to be child abusers. Pakistan’s television
who were convicted of the trafficking and and other media platforms need to host wider
rape of scores of underage girls, were also discussions about how to deal with such
deported to Pakistan. It is alleged that even issues while also educating parents in how
these men have been able to get themselves they can teach their children that such
freed and may likely be abusing other demons exist in the world.
children. UK authorities have blamed
Pakistan for serving as a haven for men who Men like Sohail Ayaz slip through the cracks
are convicted or wanted for sex crimes in the because they can. They slip through the
UK. The accused men simply run off to cracks because no one wants to take
Pakistan where they can hide in plain sight responsibility. In the meantime, hundreds,
and keep victimizing children. even thousands of Pakistani children face the
consequences of such lapses.
There is a solution to this mess. First, while
British and Pakistani authorities may say that After he was arrested, Sohail Ayaz confessed
they only co-ordinate in high profile cases, that he had abused at least 30 other children
the fact that lines of communication exist in addition to the one who registered the FIR
means that there is a possibility of against him. In truth, the number is likely
coordination in cases of pedophilia. As all much higher. The existence of such evil is a
those who have traveled between Pakistan tragedy for any nation. But in tragedy there is
and Britain know, there is effective also opportunity, and Pakistan must deploy
monitoring of passports and travel the resources it already has and make fighting
documents. If this sort of monitoring is this scourge an immediate and urgent
already taking place, then it is entirely national priority.
possible to place alerts alongside passport
numbers of pedophiles who are traveling
between the two countries.
Second, Minister for Human Rights Shireen

Mazari stated that the pedophile registry that
exists abroad does not exist in Pakistan. The
answer to this is not the wholesale
development of a pedophile registry from
scratch. Pakistan already monitors most of its
citizens via National Identity Card numbers.
The system can easily be deployed to also
monitor child abusers who victimize
children.
Men who are convicted of child abuse crimes

anywhere in the country should have a special
www.nearpeer.org 30
Why UK’s Brexit Election is Truly won at the last election, giving them a free run
there in an effort to get Brexit done in the next
Significant Parliament.
By: Dr. John c Hulsman While the Tories are conquering the Leave
vote, Labour and the Liberal Democrats
continue to bicker and block each other over
H istorically, most politicians are and

have always been time-servers,
living in an era that did not portend
significant breaks with the past. But, every
the Remain vote, being unable and unwilling
to form a tactical “Remainer alliance.”
Labour and the Lib Dems remain divided
both politically and ideologically, between
once in a while, an individual or an electoral those who want a softer Brexit (staying in a
moment emerges that substantially changes customs union with the EU even as the UK
the course of a country. leaves) than Johnson is offering and those
In the US, the election of Franklin Roosevelt who want to cancel Brexit altogether. These
in 1932 was one such event, as he changed irreconcilable differences are at the root of
the nature of both the American economy the Labour/Lib Dem schism, giving the prime
and, ultimately, the US’ place in the world. minister an absolutely huge electoral
Likewise, for the UK, the election of advantage ahead of the December vote.
Margaret Thatcher in 1979 realigned Britain Beyond the political tactics, the Remainers —
in seminal ways that are still felt to this day. in allowing a trapped Johnson to call an
The Brexit election of Dec. 12 is one such election he was always likely to win — made
rare moment. A large reason for this is that one crucial error: They utterly misunderstood
Brexit is a binary policy project: One either who the British public was likely to blame for
leaves the EU or one does not. The December the endless, enervating Brexit deadlock.
2019 vote looks set to see the UK finally set
sail for a very different future than the one it An important ComRes poll of early October
has hewed to for decades. underlined this. It found a whopping 83
Polling numbers have become nightmarish percent of those respondents polled blamed
for the opposition “Remainer” cause. A the old obstreperous Parliament for the Brexit
recent YouGov seat-by-seat analysis found delay; 70 percent specifically blamed Remain
the Conservatives ahead at 43 percent, with MPs; and 63 percent pointed the finger at the
Labour well back at 32 percent. Practically European Commission. Last on the list, only
this translates into a hefty overall Tory 56 percent blamed the prime minister for the
majority of 68 (with 359 Conservative seats mess. Rather than crippling and undermining
and 211 for Labour), which would amount to Johnson, in their endless blocking of Brexit,
its best general election result since the Remainers, to a far greater extent, have
Thatcher’s heyday in 1987. earned the derision of the voting public. And
Partly, this reflects the fact that the Boris that is why, more than anything else, Johnson
Johnson campaign (ably directed by my old is set to actually win the coming December
friend Dominic Cummings) has already won Brexit election outright.
what amounts to the first of two actual A definitive Johnson victory in the Brexit
election campaigns. election would have profound policy
Johnson, in convincing the electorate that he implications for the UK. First, with a working
wants to get on with Brexit, has squeezed the majority, the UK looks set to finally leave the
ultra-Leave Brexit Party of Nigel Farage, EU by the end of January 2020 deadline,
whose numbers are dwindling as disaffected along the lines of Johnson’s proposed deal.
Tories come home. Pushed into a corner, Such an outcome would enable Britain to be
Farage (somewhat grumpily) went the next able to strike new free trade deals on its own
step, announcing his party would not stand outside the EU’s customs union.
any candidates in the 317 seats the Tories Second, at last we get to the heart of the
www.nearpeer.org 31
matter. Ignore the past few years of endless in the first round. Then the vote count was
myopia about Brexit and the larger geo- suddenly suspended, and when it resumed the
economic and geopolitical questions swing requisite advantage was in place.
into clear view. For the key as to whether
Brexit amounts to a medium and long-term It certainly seems suspicious, although there
success is if, in the next few (three to five) is an alternative explanation — namely that
years, the UK is able to nail down free trade the last votes to be tallied were from far-flung
deals with Canada, Australia, New Zealand, rural regions, where Morales’ popularity has
the US and India — all parts of the world steadily been greater than in urban areas.
growing at a far greater rate than a moribund
EU. Anyhow, an ‘audit’ by the Organisation of
If London can manage this, then in the long- American States (OAS) — which is funded
term Brexit was worth it in policy terms. If mainly by the US, and over the decades has
not, then Brexit was a huge mistake. But this frequently fallen short of objectivity —
is the yardstick and parameter that companies revealed significant discrepancies, and it
and countries should focus on from here on called for the vote to be annulled. Morales
out in determining Brexit’s efficacy. agreed and vowed to constitute a new
What all of this means (and I’m delighted to electoral commission. Within hours, he was
say my firm has called all this correctly out of a job.
analytically for a long, long time) is that the
December UK election is one of those rare The president had also stirred resentment by
electoral contests that actually will change insisting on aiming for a fourth term, after
the nature of the country in political risk marginally losing a referendum on term
terms. It is truly that important. limits, and then persuading Bolivia’s
constitutional court to rescind them
altogether. His popularity was diminished as
a result, but still remained substantial.
Bolivian Backlash (Dawn,
Among the leading lights of the ‘pink tide’
November 13) that swept through much of Latin America at
By:Mahir Ali the turn of the century, Morales was a
relatively quiet achiever. The kind of bluster
associated with Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez
HEN a nation’s elected president
W is compelled to resign because the

military chief commands him to
relinquish his post, it is hardly unfair to
was seemingly alien to his nature. Even his
detractors acknowledge, however, that the
Morales presidency has been remarkably
successful in reducing both inequality and
describe it as a coup. absolute poverty. The economy has ticked
along smoothly, with average growth at
That’s essentially what happened in Bolivia almost 5pc since Morales first assumed
on Sunday, when Evo Morales was forced out power in 2006.
of office, just hours after he had agreed to a
fresh presidential election following weeks of
There has been visible development, the
occasionally violent unrest. illiteracy rate has sharply declined, and
healthcare has substantially improved.
The mobilisations began shortly after the Oct Morales led a movement of coca farmers
20 presidential poll. No one seriously doubts before he became the first indigenous
that Morales was genuinely ahead in the vote Bolivian to take charge in a nation two-thirds
count, but he appeared to be falling short of of whose citizens are ‘Indians’. Until 2006,
the 10 per cent margin required to seal victory
www.nearpeer.org 32
they had broadly been excluded from the widespread unrest; and then the army struck
power structure. just as negotiations between the government
and the opposition reached agreement on how
It must be acknowledged, though, that in to proceed.
recent years some of the complaints about the
Morales administration have also come from A nightmare unfolded thereafter, and
the left, especially in instances where the Pakistan is still living with its consequences.
government seemed to be colluding with Bolivia in 2019 will hopefully avoid such a
vested agricultural and industrial interests, to dire fate. For the moment, there is
the detriment of the rural population and its considerable uncertainty, and no one can
environment. When, a few months ago, fires confidently predict whether the clear-cut
raged through the Bolivian countryside, advances of the past 13 years will be
much of the blame was laid at the preserved. A relapse into the instability of the
government’s door. pre-Morales period — in which his main
presidential rival this year, Carlos Mesa, was
It is also not completely clear whether credited with a key role — would be
Morales’ primary motivation for extending disastrous, but cannot be ruled out.
his tenure arose from concern that his task
was unfinished, or could be attributed to a On the other hand, if democracy survives in
growing taste for power. The two are not one way or another, one must hope that so
mutually exclusive, of course, but purity of will key aspects of Morales’ largely positive
motive isn’t exactly irrelevant. legacy.
It was unclear at the time of writing how the

unexpected power vacuum in Bolivia would
be filled. The army showed no immediate
inclination to directly assume power, which
Divine Punishment (Dawn,
is a small mercy given Bolivia’s history of November 15)
military rule, not least a half-century ago,
when Che Guevara was assassinated. It is not By: Nikhat Sattar
surprising that elements in the military
A
reacted badly when the Morales government COMMON belief among many
decided to elaborately commemorate the 50th Muslims is that disasters are a
anniversary of Che’s martyrdom in Bolivia manifestation of the wrath of God
two years ago.
Since the vice president and head of the

Senate resigned alongside Morales, the
deputy leader of the Senate, opposition
politician Jeanine Anez, is expected to take
over as interim president. The crucial
question is what happens next? Will there be
another election sooner rather than later? And
will Morales, whose Movement for Socialism
has majorities in both chambers of
parliament, be allowed to contest?
There are echoes in this week’s developments

in La Paz of events in Islamabad 42 years ago,
when perceptions of electoral fraud provoked
www.nearpeer.org 33
due to our wayward ways and negligence of In the case of Hazrat Muhammad (PBUH),
religious duties. God separated all disbelievers after a very
long process of giving time and allowance to
These could be natural or manmade disasters: the Quraish and the wrongdoers among the
earthquakes; floods; heatwaves, drought and Jews and Christians of that time. They were
extreme cold, wars etc. Such a belief is then killed in wars at the hands of the
entrenched within our psyche, ahadith are Muslims. This action was only meant for that
quoted to support it. We often fail to time, when a prophet was present among the
recognise our own hand in the making of people and he had made all efforts to guide
these disasters and their impacts. Our his people to the right path.
fatalistic tendencies are reinforced and we
end up blaming society and various groups Itemam al Hujja and subsequent actions were
for their misdeeds for such events. relevant only for the times of the prophets.
Since Prophet Muhammad (PBUH) is the last
The Quran says: “...nor would We visit with messenger and no one shall come after him,
Our Wrath until We had sent a messenger (to this process of God’s collective punishment
give warning)” (17:15). Throughout in this world has come to an end. An
humankind’s history, messengers have been individual may still believe that a disaster that
sent to their specific communities to warn has befallen one in life might be a
people and guide them to the right path, consequence of something he or she may
whenever they strayed towards evil acts and have done to displease God, but that is his or
persisted with the latter. her personal belief and he or she must try and
atone for this through penance and
After years of calling them to return to put compensating for the wrong that has been
their belief in one God and the Hereafter and done.
adopt an honest and compassionate lifestyle,
God decided whether or not the time had However, this is not a universal fact and is not
come to separate the deniers of truth from the valid for children and innocent people. It
believers. This was the stage of conclusive would, therefore, be completely wrong on
arguments and clarification (Itemam al someone’s part to witness another’s
Hujja). misfortune and consider it as a sign of
displeasure of God.
Once this was done, God sent His
punishment, either in the form of natural Disasters occur in this world due to natural,
events, as in the case of Hazrat Lut’s people, scientific reasons; most often, they are a
upon whom was sent a storm of stones like result of man’s activities. The melting of
baked clay; Hazrat Shuaib, whose people glaciers, floods, landslides, the impact of
were all destroyed by a terrible earthquake, tsunamis and earthquakes and wars are all
and Hazrat Nuh, who had preached for consequences of either global warming or
several hundred years, but to no avail. His lack of appropriate preventive or corrective
people were destroyed by a flood after he had measures by humans.
sailed away in an ark built by him. In the case
of Hazrat Musa, Pharaoh and his army were According to Javed Ahmad Ghamidi, God
destroyed when they drowned at sea. In each allows these disasters to occur to remind
of these and other examples, God had human beings of the truth of collective death
separated the good people and saved them, and the end of the world. Death occurs
while the rest were wiped off from the face of everywhere all the time, but it is only mass
the earth. destruction that helps those who are living to
realise that they all must leave the world some
time and that they, too, are in line and can go
www.nearpeer.org 34
anytime. They should try and do some good services reforms and reorganization of FBR
while they are alive and have the ability to were two most talked about areas.
act, lest it becomes too late.
Lately, lot of hype has been taking rounds for
This does not negate the fact that people must reforming FBR by having a new supra
pray, individually and collectively, for those structure of Pakistan Revenue Authority. As
who have suffered and for the safety of those expected, it has met sever resistance from
whose lives and property was saved. within the department. While this proposed
change has yet to find a way forward, another
Disasters that cause collective harm are also reform initiative has landed; surely not a
challenges from God, to take appropriate pleasing one for FBR.
action and to also express regrets. In
compassion and concern, the heart calls out Federal Cabinet has approved National Tariff
to the Creator with sincerity and He has Policy 2019-24 to be implemented in a period
promised to listen. At the same time, of five years starting from the Budget 2020-
rationality should not become a casualty and 21. It’s easy to approve a policy but harder to
all measures should be taken at individual, put it in action. However, it is a major
community and national levels for the development to relocate the administrative
prevention of and protection against function of Tariff Regime in Commerce
disasters. Division where it originally belonged to for
presumably rational usage of tariffs for trade
For example, it is good to pray for and investment promotion as well as a
deliverance from disasters. It is also revenue instrument.
important to ensure the protection of trees to
avoid soil erosion; harvest rainwater when it The proposal submitted to Federal Cabinet
does rain and take steps for disaster risk for approval pleads that this would help
reduction and management. resorting to a more rational regime where
tariffs are used to contain de-industrialization
and anti-export bias in our national Customs
Tariffs. However, it is a challenging for any
New tariff policy; uphill task starts country balancing between revenue
considerations, pro-export tariff structures
now! (The Nation) and protections of local industry.
By: Khalid Mahmood Rasool
Last two decades of performance has
demonstrated that the Pakistan economy
I n the midst of reforms drive, here comes

another one; National Tariff Policy 2019-
2024. The spirit of the policy for a paradigm
shift in the Tariff Regime may be well
thought and appropriate move but its
witnessed de-industrialization. The share of
industrial production has gone down from
26.4% of the GDP in FY 2010 to 20.3% in
FY2019. Meanwhile, the share of exports
dropped from 13.5% of GDP in 2010 to 7%
implementation would be a challenge. in 2019. Higher tariffs and in the manner
these tariffs have been repeatedly used as
Need of structural reforms has been a favorite weapon to raise revenues are blamed for de-
pep talk with every new economic cycle of industrialization and anti-export bias leading
boom and bust in our recent memory. It was to stagnant exports.
not different this time either. The PTI
Government assumed the office with a Due to the inability of tax machinery to
promise to reform this “rotten system”. Civil collect direct taxes, reliance of Pakistan on
taxes collected at import stage has been
www.nearpeer.org 35
increasing. The tariffs collected at import improving industrial competitiveness,

stage now constitute around 48% of total tax removing anomalies in the tariff structure.
revenue of the country which is much higher
than comparable economies of the The real challenge, however, would be
region. Departure from this reliance would implementation with its true spirit. Old habits
only be possible if FBR could shift its die hard and harder is to relinquish the
revenue collection thrust to direct power. It would be a formidable challenge to
taxes instead of current reliance on indirect reverse the decade’s old onus back to
taxation. Ministry of Commerce from FBR amidst the
hovering fiscal deficits, severity of hard
The Federal Government Rules of business economic choices and tough stabilization
1973 stipulated the Tariff Policy and measures in progress under IMF Stabilization
protection regime as the mandate of program.
Commerce division. It has been negotiating
tariff concessions under bilateral and Subtle but brutal intra ministerial turf of war
multilateral arrangements and formulating may multiply the challenge of putting the
the Trade Policy; the tariffs being its primary National Tariff Policy into action. Capacity
instrument. of Commerce Division to deliver and pacify
the fears of revenue loss during the ongoing
However, the onus shifted over the years to IMF Program would be harder challenge too.
wards to FBR due to ever growing revenue Also, having the IMF’s nod to do so would be
constraints. FBR, being purely a revenue not easy as FBR is the focal institution to
collection agency, has used tariff setting as a ensure the ambitious targets; on which it is
primary instrument to augment its revenues. already faltering.
This overriding compulsion has caused
multiple layers of policy distortions which
adversely effected country’s industrial
competitiveness, caused higher import tariffs
on imported raw materials, intermediate
goods and machinery. Babri Verdict (Dawn, November
16)
Money speaks louder than anything else.
FBR, thus, assumed centrality in tariff setting By: AG Noorani
and has been most frequented block of Pak
Secretariat. The importance and power HE Supreme Court of India’s judgement in
attached with tariff setting helped FBR to the Babri Masjid case does no credit to the
amass enormous power and say in trade and
industrial policy and any other economic
initiative. This subtle but decisive turf of war
with other competing and related ministries
like Commerce, Ministry of Industries and
Defence Production and organizations like
EDB made them toothless and often paper
pushers for the fulfilment of revenue
constraints of FBR.
National Tariff Policy 2019-24 is an

ambitious policy reform measure to reverse
these administrative imbalances. It has noble
objectives and principles in its spirits like
www.nearpeer.org 36
court’s reputation. It comes in the concluded on the conclusion [sic] that faith
T
wake of its studied denial of redress to and belief of Hindus since prior to the
the Kashmiris after the Modi construction of Mosque and subsequent
government’s outrageous attempt on thereto has always been that Janamasthan
Aug 5 to destroy the very identity of (birthplace) of Lord Ram is the place where
Kashmir. Babri Mosque has been constructed which
faith and belief is proved by documentary and
The judgement flouts every canon of the oral evidence discussed above.” One would
centuries-old format of judgements. With be justified in retorting. ‘So what?’ Cases are
British rule came courts which followed the decided according to the law and evidence;
British practice in writing judgements. One not faith.
judge writes it, the others record their
concurrence or dissent. The law reports The Babri Masjid was built by Mir Baqi, a
faithfully record them. Reasons for dissent commander in Babar’s army, in 1528. During
are always set out. Concurrence can dispense the night of Dec 22-23 1949, idols of Ram
with the reasons but they are sometimes were placed in it and Muslims were excluded
recorded. All this is imperative because completely.
transparency is a guarantee of integrity.
Section 145 of the Criminal Procedure Code
In the Babri Masjid case, the five-member provided for just such an offence. A
bench purported to render a unanimous magistrate inquires as to the fact of
judgement signed by all. But, contrary to the possession and restores the property to the
practice in English courts, to which we are person in whose possession it was. The
heirs since the 18th century, the supreme encroacher is left free to file a regular civil
court’s judgement in this instance does not suit on title. But in this case the mosque was
record the author of the judgement. It simply not restored to the Muslims; instead, a
records the judgment and signatures of all receiver was appointed and clothed with a
five to provide an appearance of unanimity. scheme for administration.
At the very end of this 929-page judgement Muslims were excluded and it is a strange
comes this strange paragraph: “One of us, coincidence that every judicial
while being [sic] in agreement with the above pronouncement since went against Muslims
reasons and directions has recorded separate — from district courts, the high court to the
reasons on ‘whether the disputed structure is supreme court.
the birthplace of Lord Ram according to the
faith and belief of the Hindu devotees’.” The The masjid was demolished by the goons of
reasons of the learned judge are set out in an the RSS, BJP and Shiv Sena on Dec 6, 1992.
addendum. Criminal proceedings launched against the
leaders — L.K. Advani and the rest have
This strange document begins by reproducing made scant progress. There now comes the
that issue differently in these words: supreme court’s strange verdict strangely
“Whether disputed structure is the holy [sic] expressed with a stooge addendum which
birthplace of Lord Ram as per the faith, belief belies its unanimity.
and trust of the Hindus?” Such inaccuracy is
inexcusable in the pronouncement of any The court holds that the idols were indeed
court of law, especially in the judgement of planted inside the mosque on Dec 22-23,
the highest court of the country. 1949, and holds also that the demolition on
Dec 6, 1992, was against the ‘rule of law’.
This addendum runs into 116 pages and ends But it does not restore the masjid to the
with these revealing words: “It is thus victims of those two crimes. It rewards their
www.nearpeer.org 37
perpetrators’ successors in interest with sector, among other areas. While addressing
possession of the land on which the legislative and policy gaps is an important
demolished masjid stood. It caps this order element of the reforms, the substantive part
with a direction to build a temple to and frame remains in the area of building (or rebuilding)
a scheme for its management. Muslims are state capacity and capability in policy
fobbed off with pretentious balancing — they formulation, implementation, monitoring as
are awarded five acres of land on which to well as evaluation across a wide range of
build a mosque. government function.
Barring a few ever-present Uncle Toms The reform agenda needs to entail enhancing
among Muslims, writers and public figures of the technocratic capacity of the civil service
repute have rejected this offer. A heartening by providing the requisite resources,
feature of the debate since is that non-Muslim including financial as well as technological.
writers and intellectuals of standing have Importantly, the reform enterprise should
censured the verdict as being influenced by also entail rewiring institutional
the move of the majoritarianism sweeping arrangements to promote coordination
India today. vertically as well as horizontally across
different levels of government as well as
The judgement makes more than one across different agencies and departments, to
reference to the case of the Shaheed Gunj lower ‘inside’ as well as ‘outside’ lags in
mosque in Lahore. Unlike Ram whose policy formulation and implementation, to
historicity is contested by some Hindus — enhance the efficiency as well as
notably C. Rajagopalachari — there existed effectiveness of government work, to shift the
an authentic deed of Waqf. The venue was focus from outputs to outcomes, and to
occupied by Sikhs when they conquered provide an enabling and facilitating
Punjab in the 19th century. Muslims sued for environment for the private sector.
its recovery much later and lost in all the
courts. Given this daunting reform agenda, how
should the government approach this
There were demands by Malik Barkat Ali and gargantuan task at hand. While the PTI
K.L. Guha for legislation to override the government has demonstrated its intent to
Privy Council’s judgement. The premier introduce meaningful reform in critical areas
Sikandar Hayat Khan refused. Quaid-i-Azam of economic management, such as the tax
Mohammad Ali Jinnah and the Muslim Lea- regime, the reform intent does not appear to
gue backed him. The gurdwara remained. be informed by a ‘grand design’, and this is
likely to be problematic.
Pakistan’s Reform Plans (Dawn,
Some important elements of successful
November 22) reform include the following. First and
By: Saqib Sheerani foremost, there is deep strategic thinking
prior to initiating the reforms. What are the
initial conditions, which challenges are the
P AKISTAN has a dire and well-

established need for wide-ranging
structural and institutional reform. The
required reforms encompass
administration, the wider civil service,
tax
most pressing, what are the key points of
change, what resources are available to effect
the change (human capital, finances, political
capital, institutional capacity, technology,
international support, time)?
management of state-owned enterprises, the
energy sector, regulatory agencies, the central This phase should be informed not just by a
bank as well as the regulation of the corporate mapping of initial conditions, but by a
www.nearpeer.org 38
thorough understanding of the political affiliated with the National Development and
economy context. Who will be the ultimate Reform Commission. The Chinese Academy
winners and losers of each reform, how can of Fiscal Sciences operates under the
support of potential winners be galvanised Ministry of Finance and has 12 research
and potential losers ‘compensated’, and what centres, five graduate school departments, six
should the optimum pace and sequencing of supporting departments and two subsidiary
the reform process be keeping in view the associations associated with it.
political capital of the government. To
achieve its reform objectives, what will be the To ensure that expert policy advice gains
most effective strategic communication of the more traction within policymaking, the
reform plan? Chinese try to induct and embed academics
and practitioners into formal policymaking
As part of this process of strategic thinking, a roles. This practice is of course not unique to
key consideration will be matching the China but followed in many countries
reform ambition with the available including the US. In Pakistan, a parallel,
institutional capacity. Any asymmetry lateral entry system for technocrats was
between the two will also impact the pace and introduced in the early 2000s with special pay
sequencing of reforms. This entire thinking scales, but its success has largely been
process should not be donor-led but home- undermined by an insecure bureaucracy.
grown, with the donors restricted to providing
technical assistance where such expertise is Choosing the right reform team is another
not locally available. essential success factor. The standard
practice in Pakistan has been to select a
A related question is who informs narrow-based band of reformers, usually all
policymaking in Pakistan? After consigning macroeconomists with varying degrees of
the Economic Advisory Council to public policy or multilateral experience,
irrelevance, there is no de facto formal instead of a much wider and more eclectic
mechanism for the government to take policy team comprising change management
input from. An institutional mechanism specialists, systems designers, sociologists
(however half-baked) has been replaced by a and anthropologists, behavioural
host of part-time task forces, kitchen cabinets psychologists, behavioural economists etc.
and informal advisers. Formally, and de jure,
this role has been assigned to the Pakistan This team of reformers should be embedded
Institute of Development Economics since in the designated lead agency responsible for
the last few years. However, its performance formulating and implementing the reform
and utility have suffered from both demand plans. In our case, the natural choice should
as well as supply-side issues. be the Planning Commission.
In this context, Pakistan should take a leaf Finally, the most critical element of a reform
from China which has a pantheon of public enterprise or a restructuring project is a
policy think tanks working for the clearly articulated and understood ‘theory of
government. Under the State Council, there is change’ to anchor and guide the process. The
the well-respected Chinese Academy of PTI’s original theory of change was to bring
Social Sciences (which comprises 32 in technocratically capable, and untainted,
research institutes, three research centres and fresh blood with reformist impulses into
a graduate school. Also under the State government. However, it has since
Council, there is the Development Research completely undermined this by
Centre. The Academy of Macroeconomic accommodating tainted members of the old
Research and the China Centre for guard (the so-called ‘electables’) into the
International Economic Exchanges are cabinet and positions of influence. Combined
www.nearpeer.org 39
with the clout of its political allies who articles are written bemoaning the state of
mostly represent the corrupt old guard, and affairs; politicians get on their soapboxes to
whose votes the PTI is completely dependent blame others; and committees are formed to
on, the centre of gravity has now shifted away address the problem.
from the reformists.
But as soon as the problem recedes, it is back
Even if somehow the PTI can retain its to normal with all the players exhausted by
reformist impulses, a looming challenge will their unaccustomed expenditure of energy. In
be a perennial one — how to sustain the the case of our annual smog crisis — and it is
reform enterprise after achieving a crisis — we go through the usual drill
macroeconomic stabilisation and seeing off before settling back and waiting for a miracle
the IMF programme. Clearly, the reform to deliver us of this plague.
enterprise has plenty of internal hoops of fire
to navigate even before it confronts pushback In his excellent analysis published in the EOS
from entrenched vested interests on the section of the last weekend’s issue of Dawn,
outside. Ahmad Rafay Alam lays some persistent
myths to rest. Much of the data here is drawn
from his article (‘If you haven’t seen
Lahore…’). Abid Omar also contributed to
the discussion.
Perhaps the only encouraging thing to emerge

from the ongoing debate is the rise in
consciousness among the young.
Schoolchildren, deprived of their lessons
again and again due to school closures caused
Ground Zero (Dawn, 23 by smog, are now aware that their health and
education are at risk because of
November) environmental factors.
By:Irfan Hussain
For years, the period between November and
January is now semi-officially designated as
I COULD see the curtain of haze miles

away as we drove to Lahore from Islamabad
recently. And before I
remembered the air mask I had been
presented, my throat had begun to itch.
the smog season. Pakistani politicians, trying
to duck their responsibility, point the finger at
Indian farmers and their practice of burning
rice stubble. But this is a two-way street. Our
farmers do exactly the same thing. The
I had been reading about the Lahore smog for problem on both sides of the border is caused
weeks, but this was my first recent experience by shifting wind direction: in the winter, the
of it. Like much else in Pakistan, we wake up ‘westerlies’ bring strong gusts from India to
when a crisis is upon us. Editorials and Pakistan, but this can change quickly.
While playing the blame game with India

over agricultural pollution, we have closed
our eyes to the other causes that contribute
even greater amounts of particulate matter.
Industry, transport and the power sector
pump a whopping 80 per cent of the
pollutants in our atmosphere.
www.nearpeer.org 40
Independent power projects, often coal-fired, The Thar coal-fired power project shows how
are some of the worst offenders. Meanwhile, far we are from the international consensus
the fuel we import is probably the filthiest in on global warming, and the fallout of the
the world. Instead of being at the Euro II carbon we spew into the atmosphere. Our
standard, we continue to use dirty petroleum preoccupation with petty politics blinds us to
products that add to the pollution. the larger issues of our times. Until we hold
our leaders to account, little will change.
Despite all this harm inflicted on children, the
elderly and pregnant women, we continue Another issue to consider is the need to
merrily along our polluting trajectory. cooperate with our eastern neighbour to
Knowing what we do about the health impact address these problems on both sides of the
of polluted air, we bury our head in the sand border. We do not need to resolve the
instead of tackling the issue with the Kashmir conflict to ensure clean air for
determination it warrants. Pakistani and Indian children.
For example, a day in Lahore during peak So I fear that until the number of the dead and
pollution is equivalent to smoking a pack of the seriously ill multiplies, little will be done
cigarettes. Having kicked the habit many by our politicians and bureaucrats. Once the
years ago, the last thing I need is a high dose haze lifts, and life returns to normal, it will be
of nicotine equivalent. Kids are especially business as usual. Committees will no doubt
vulnerable to this pernicious air. Their mental be formed to make recommendations, but
and physical development can be impaired, nothing will change until the next smog
and foetuses can carry this tar when their season.
mothers breathe in this poison.
Security Mosaic (Dawn,
The Pakistan Air Quality Initiative, or PAQI,
has placed a number of air-monitoring November 8)
devices that report on air quality in Punjab. By:Muhammad Ali Babakhel
Instead of welcoming this NGO’s efforts,
officialdom asserts that the monitors are
unreliable. In that case, the government
should install its own.
Thus far, we have treated the problem as

I NTERNAL security is an essential
element of national security. The Quaid
said, a government is responsible for
maintaining order and protecting life and
property, and religious belief. Provincialism,
specific to Lahore and Punjab. But this
impression is belied by the fact that we sectarianism and ethnic divisions have led to
breathe polluted air across Pakistan. Accor- different phases of violence but a well-
ding to PAQI data, the number of ‘unhealthy articulated internal security policy couldn’t
days’ in Lahore in 2018 was 187 against 152 be formulated.
in Karachi and 86 in Islamabad. But Karachi
went through 166 ‘sensitive days’ against 88 Tribalism, feudalism, weak governance,
for Lahore. corruption and poor socioeconomic
conditions are threat enablers; sectarianism,
Karachi, of course, is often swept clean by its sub-nationalism and extremism are threat
sea air, while the ‘inversion lid’ over Lahore multipliers. While globalisation encourages
can trap polluted air over the city for days. innovation and information-sharing, it has
But make no mistake: we are all inhaling also led to the misuse of technology. Violent
some of the foulest air on the planet. non-state actors on the internet pose serious
security challenges ie encrypted
www.nearpeer.org 41
communication, online access to IED- and extremists used broadcasting to poison the
suicide vest-making techniques. ears of their audience. Initially, TTP
commanders were united, but power politics
Pakistan’s internal security mosaic needs led to factions. After TTP chief Mullah
integrated reforms. Out of the 26 Fazlullah’s death, Noor Wali tried to
constitutional amendments, four directly reconsolidate matters, but the military made
pertain to internal security. Without it is difficult for TTP to stage a comeback
incorporating key players, national security with the same intensity. The Sipah-i-Sahaba,
issues cannot be effectively addressed. Lashkar Jhangvi and Sipah-i-Mohammad
Implementing Article 140-A will boost local were involved in sectarian proxies, while the
governments, which will help in executing Balochistan Liberation Army, Balochistan
internal security policies. Besides the Anti- Republican Army, Lashkar-i-Balochistan,
Terrorism Act, Anti-Money Laundering Act, Balochistan Liberation United Front and
Investigation for Fair Trial Act, Nacta, and United Baloch Army were significant
Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act were insurgent groups that challenged internal
formulated after 9/11. Counterterrorism security. In Sindh, the TTP, AQIS, LeJ and
strategies were based on a ‘capture and kill’ Sipah-i-Mohammad Pakistan remained
approach until the formulation of the active. Burmese, Bengalis and Seraiki
National Internal Security Policy. The elements were also active in LeJ. An
National Action Plan rearticulated NISP’s innovation of some Karachi University
goals, but converting such ideals into reality students, Ansar-ul-Sharia, was only recently
needs improved provincial ownership. tackled by LEAs.
Signing four peace accords with militants In the past four decades, the Fata region
between 2004 and 2008 proved to be mere remained a hub for militants who challenged
appeasement. Though such accords enabled the authority of maliks and political agents.
both sides to buy more time, the ultimate Since 2004, KP has registered 4,359 incidents
casualty was durable peace. The failure of the of terrorism; 2009 was the bloodiest period,
policy of appeasement reduced the scope for with 728 attacks recorded. Since 2017,
soft approaches, leading to military Balochistan registered 333 incidents of
operations against militants. However, the terrorism. Militants changed their strategy
results of these operations were not worked from suicide bombing to IEDs and rocket
out well in advance. fire. Factionalism continued to dilute the
strength of militant groups, and some of them
Internal security threats cannot be neatly opted for clandestine collusion. Karachi
separated from external factors. Indian remained a hub of ethnic violence and was an
involvement in sabotaging peace in Pakistan attractive shelter for dormant extremists.
is evident from the 240-page Kao Plan. The Though the Karachi operation resulted in an
first part focused on supporting instability in 89 per cent decline in terrorism, the real
East Pakistan, the remainder concerned KP challenge is how to retain the dividends of
and Balochistan. Cyberspace facilitated ongoing operations. Unrest in Karachi has
certain elements to wage a hybrid war. Apart always been tackled with an iron fist, but the
from external linkages, such issues are not to violence reappears after a brief respite.
be seen exclusively through the prism of
security, but also need to be understood Converting Fata’s merger into reality,
through a socioeconomic and political lens. consolidating gains of LEAs and preventing
ethno-political fissures need political will, a
For more than a decade, the Tehreek-i- doable transition plan and financial resou-
Taliban Pakistan was the common voice of rces. Integrating Levies and Khasadars with
militants. Prior to military operations, the police and redefining the Frontier
www.nearpeer.org 42
Constabulary’s mandate need more efforts. approach to Kashmir. But while Afghan
Although the Fata merger has changed KP’s public opinion is generally hostile to
demographic and administrative dynamics, if Pakistan, the position on Kashmir is
issues that emerged after the merger are not muddled, changing and not entirely favorable
addressed, it may affect the peace indexation to New Delhi. These divergent perspectives
of the settled districts. Weak institutional not only have implications for the country’s
responses to the dividends of military future but also reveal the limits of India’s
operations may result in the return of influence in the region despite its long-
disorder. standing soft-power campaign to shape
public perception in its favor.
India’s soft power is touted as a key factor in

its relationship with Afghanistan. India is one
of Afghanistan’s largest donors and has
supported the investment of several key
infrastructure projects, including the
financing of Kabul’s new parliament
building. Indian cultural exports like
Bollywood influence the mindset of
Afghanistan’s youth, helping to cement the
long-standing ties between the two countries.
As such, Afghans generally perceive New
Delhi as a stabilizing force in the region. In
contrast, because of Pakistan’s military’s
relationship with the Taliban and other
Afghan militants, along with ongoing
hostility and clashes along the border,
Afghans are more apt to view Pakistan
negatively. Large scale anti-Pakistan
protests, such as the ones in 2014 and 2017,
Kashmir Could Wreck India’s illuminate this.
Reputation Among Afghans
On Aug. 5, Jammu and Kashmir lost the
(Foreign Policy) nominally autonomous status it was granted
By: Hari Parsad on being ceded to India in 1947. To enforce
the move, New Delhi sent an additional
38,000 Indian security forces into the region,
I n 1989, as Soviet troops withdrew from

Afghanistan, another Pakistan-sponsored
insurgency flourished as resistance to Indian
rule in Kashmir flared. The battle in Jammu
and Kashmir, a border region long disputed
severed all forms of communication, and
arrested top Kashmiri politicians. As the
lockdown continued, several Pakistani
policymakers were quick to link the issue to
by India and Pakistan, has linked its fate then-ongoing peace talks in Afghanistan
with Afghanistan—and Kabul is still caught between the United States and the Taliban,
in the crossfire between Islamabad seeking to persuade Western policymakers to
and New Delhi. put pressure on India.
Since New Delhi revoked the special status of Both Kabul and the Taliban rebuked this
Jammu and Kashmir in August and began a linkage, emphasizing the bilateral nature of
sweeping clampdown, there have been many the Kashmir conflict. Former Afghan
reports of Kabul’s support for India’s intelligence director Amrullah Saleh was
www.nearpeer.org 43
quick to side with India and tweeted that India Arif Khan (a pseudonym), a taxi driver and
alone holds the power to change the status of former 1980s mujahideen fighter based in
Kashmir. He accused Pakistan of producing Kabul, relayed a similar sentiment to us. He
“brain washed Madrasa terrorists” who killed sympathized with the Kashmiris for what
Afghan civilians “just because they are not they experienced and often wished that the
anti India.” mujahideen continued to Kashmir to help
liberate it from Indian rule. But when asked
In contrast to many who view the Afghan about the situation in Kashmir today, he said,
Taliban as purely a Pakistani military proxy, “This all has to do with Pakistan. Pakistan is
the Taliban’s statement on Aug. 8 that urged meddling there and here. They’re keeping our
India and Pakistan to exercise restraint was country behind and holding Afghanistan back
surprisingly neutral, reflecting its and using the country as a funneling route for
prioritization of national issues over weapons, drugs, and other things.”
international Muslim solidarity. “The Taliban
have always claimed to be a nationalist This geopolitical interpretation of the
movement. … They usually do not comment Kashmir issue seems to be popular among the
on other countries’ oppression of Muslims, Afghan diaspora, but their more nuanced take
apart from some vague statements of saying is perhaps a reflection of their experiences of
they want freedom for all Muslims,” said leaving the conflict-ridden country and
Mohammed Harun Arsalai, an Afghanistan- looking at the issue from a distance. Suraia
based journalist and co-founder of Sahar, an Afghan Canadian activist who
Documenting Afghanistan. works extensively with the Afghan diaspora
and refugee communities, said Afghans are
But our discussions with journalists and generally supportive of Kashmiris but also
Afghans in the region show the popular understand that both India and Pakistan are
reaction is decidedly more nuanced. Many meddling to advance their own interests in
working-class Afghans, drawing from their Afghanistan. She added: “Any honest
own experiences of conflict and oppression, discourse will recognize both states as threats
identify with Kashmir’s Muslims. This to the autonomy of neighboring regions. …
perception is understandable, as Arsalai said: On one hand, we can see Pakistan’s
“People who have seen a lot of the [ongoing] insincerity in human rights advocacy with
war understand oppression in a very real their brutal treatment of Baloch and Pashtuns.
way.” But India’s cruel policies targeting Muslims
in India foreshadows what’s to come for
Yet, although many Afghans are sympathetic Kashmiris.”
to the Kashmiri cause, the regional power
dynamics muddle the popular discourse. As Afghans are closely watching the actions of
with pro-India elites, there is a palpable anger Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s
among some middle- and working-class government in Kashmir and throughout the
Afghans at Islamabad’s continued region. That should be a reality check for
interference in their country, compounded by New Delhi; its courting of Afghan opinion
violent border skirmishes and the can only go so far. India may have the
mistreatment of the Pashtun minority in funding and power to shape public opinion
Pakistan. This negative perception of and support in Afghanistan, but it will take
Islamabad has led some Afghans to side with much more to overcome growing mistrust.
India on any issue that is anti-Pakistan,
sometimes to an extent that discernibly
downplays or even whitewashes India’s
actions in Kashmir.
www.nearpeer.org 44
The Revolt Against Populism (The was white ethnic nationalism of Donald
Trump and Brexit. In the Middle East it was
New York Times) Muslim fundamentalism. In China it was the
By: David Brooks increasing authoritarianism of Xi Jinping. In
India it was the Hindu nationalism of
Narendra Modi.
H
ave you noticed that the world
is on fire? In places, the populist wave is still rising. The
Yellow Vests in France and the protests in
Crowds are chanting “Death to Chile are led by those who feel economically
Khamenei” in Iran while the left behind. But it’s also clear that when in
regime kills them en masse power the populists can’t deliver goods. So
and shuts down the internet. now in many places we’re seeing a revolt
Throngs are marching to preserve democratic against the revolt, urban middle-class
rights in Hong Kong, Warsaw, Budapest, uprisings against the populists themselves.
Istanbul and Moscow. The masses are angry
in Pakistan, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia and
The core problem is economic. Populist
toppling leaders in Lebanon and Bolivia.
economic policies of left and right destroy
growth. Venezuela is an economic disaster.
This is the most widespread surge in global In Mexico the left-wing populist policies of
civic unrest since 1989. It’s a story 10 times Andrés Manuel López Obrador have brought
bigger than impeachment, although the two growth to a halt. The International Monetary
are related. Fund projects Latin American growth could
fall to 0.2 percent.
The seeds of today’s unrest were planted in
those events of 30 years ago — the fall of the Lebanon is creating only 3,000 jobs a year,
Soviet Union, the spread of globalization and when it needs at least 20,000. Meanwhile,
all the rest. That was the heyday of liberal debt has soared. Trump’s trade war has
democratic capitalism, free market lowered American economic dynamism. Xi
fundamentalism, the end of history. has walked away from market reforms and
ushered in an economic slowdown. Under the
We all know now what many of us didn’t tax-hiking populist leader Imran Khan in
appreciate then: Globalized democratic Pakistan, car sales fell 39 percent in the latest
capitalism was going to spark a backlash. It quarter.
led to growing economic and cultural clashes
between the educated urbanites, who thrived, All across the world, members of the new
and the rural masses, who were left behind. It middle classes feel trapped and abandoned.
was too spiritually thin, too cosmopolitan and As Fareed Zakaria noted recently, the I.M.F.
deracinated. People felt that their national sees a world economy that is in a
cultures were being ripped away from them. “synchronized slowdown” and growing at
“its slowest pace since the global financial
The populist backlash came in different crisis.”
forms in different parts of the world. In
Central and Eastern Europe it came in the The second thing the populists have brought
form of nationalist strongmen — Victor is corruption. Trump’s quid pro quo attempt
Orban, Vladimir Putin, the Law and Justice with Ukraine is of a piece with the corrupt
party in Poland. In Latin America it came in practices ushered in by populists all around
the form of the Pink Tide — a group of left- the world. They vowed to smash the rules, but
wing economic populists like Hugo Chávez it turns out it was mostly for self-enrichment
and Nicolás Maduro. In the Anglosphere it and self-protection.
www.nearpeer.org 45
Evo Morales stands accused of trying to rig globalization are real, but the populist
an election in Bolivia. Former Lebanese alternative is not working.
Prime Minister Saad Hariri gave $16 million
to a bikini model while his countrymen were The protests in all these places are leaderless,
scraping by. In the U.S., Washington insiders so it’s unrealistic to expect them to have
are rising up to curtail Trump’s normlessness. policy agendas. But the big question is,
Data from the Corruption Perceptions Index what’s next? What comes after the failure of
show that people around the world feel that populism?
corruption is on the rise.
The big job ahead for leaders in almost all
The populist/authoritarian regimes are losing these nations is this: Write a new social
legitimacy. The members of the urban middle contract that gives both the educated urban
class in places like Hong Kong and Indonesia elites and the heartland working classes a
are rising up to protect the political and social piece of what they want most.
freedoms.
The working classes who have been
These days, it doesn’t take much to set off a supporting populists need a way to thrive in
giant wave of anger. In Lebanon it was a the modern economy and a sense they are
proposed tax on WhatsApp. In Saudi Arabia respected contributors to their national
the government raised taxes on hookah project. The educated elites want their
restaurants. In France, Zimbabwe, Ecuador democratic freedoms protected and to live in
and Iran it was rising fuel prices. In Chile it ethnically diverse pluralistic societies.
was a proposed 4 percent rise in subway
fares. Whoever can write that social bargain wins
the futu
The world is unsteady and ready to blow. The
overall message is that the flaws of liberal

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soldier in a country where the US has lost

(The News International) So Trump had to clean the mess himself. It is

T HE global demand for green transition

Solar and wind turbines can produce

Moreover, it is only a matter of time before

done by allowing local governments to raise

These are some fundamental policy

T he inauguration of the Kartarpur

Thousands of Sikhs from India, Canada, the

in favour of the Hindu community. This

An alternative scenario is for Pakistan to

diplomatic campaign against Indian clear without the government having to

T he news on FAFT front is not good. In

This effort as reflected through more curbs by

Pakistani women also scored poorly in

L ast month, Georgetown University

Of course, some consideration must be given

chunks of Iraqi territory in 2014. Were it not

Currently, however, both Afghanistan and

Even worse, some of these projects may lead

M uch has rightly been made over the

T wo weeks ago, Sohial Ayaz, who had

Second, Minister for Human Rights Shireen

Men who are convicted of child abuse crimes

H istorically, most politicians are and

W is compelled to resign because the

It was unclear at the time of writing how the

Since the vice president and head of the

There are echoes in this week’s developments

I n the midst of reforms drive, here comes

increasing. The tariffs collected at import improving industrial competitiveness,

National Tariff Policy 2019-24 is an

P AKISTAN has a dire and well-

Perhaps the only encouraging thing to emerge

I COULD see the curtain of haze miles

While playing the blame game with India

Thus far, we have treated the problem as

India’s soft power is touted as a key factor in

I n 1989, as Soviet troops withdrew from

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