Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (xxxx) xxx

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Journal of Cleaner Production

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Air pollution embodied in China’s trade with the BR countries:

Transfer pattern and environmental implication
Changsheng Li a, b, *, Bihua Liu a
a
School of Economics and Management, Qingdao University of Science and Technology, Qingdao, 266061, China
b
Institute of Climate Change and Energy Sustainable Development, Qingdao University of Science and Technology, Qingdao, 266061, China

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Knowledge about environmental load displacement and its effects of China’s trade with the Belt and road
Received 11 June 2019 (BR) countries will help develop coordinating policies to jointly promote green development in the re-
Received in revised form gions. This paper presents an empirical study on embodied air pollution displacement of China-BR trade
9 October 2019
by employing a multi-region input-output model. Embodied air pollution trade and its transfer pattern,
Accepted 31 October 2019
Available online xxx
as well as the driving force for changes in China’s trade embodied air pollution intensity, are investigated.
We found that, in the period of analysis, embodied air pollution displacement between China and the BR
Handling editor: Richard Wood countries was aggravated and China was in embodied air pollution trade surplus. Most net transfer
mainly came from its energy importers with better air quality and higher Human Development Index.
Keywords: This indicated that the net embodied air pollution transfer from the BR countries to China would not
Embodied air pollution bring significant environmental and sustainability impacts on those suppliers. However, embodied air
MRIO pollution flowed from the BR countries to China decreased the overall environmental performance and
The BRI efficiency. Decomposition analysis showed technology effect served the main force driving force for the
Environmental implication
drops in China’s trade embodied air pollution intensity. The findings are beneficial for policymakers of
LMDI
the BR countries to take measures to promote their sustainable development.
© 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
Since the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was proposed by China,
the flow of goods and services between China and the BR regions
has witnessed rapid growth. The goods trade volume has surpassed
6 trillion U.S. dollars from 2013 to 2018 and its share in China’s total
foreign trade volume has increased from 25% in 2013 to 27.4% in
2018 (OLGPBRI, 2019). The growing flow of goods and services in
the BR regions adds increasing concern for the environmental load
displacement and its effects among environmental non-
governmental organizations, and researchers (Li et al., 2015; The
Swedish Trade and Invest Council, 2018; Tracy et al., 2017; UN,
2019; UN Environment, 2017; Wang and Wang, 2017).
The environmental load displacement and its effects of inter-
national trade have been a hot topic in the trade-environment
nexus research field over past decades. However, existing studies
find conflicting evidence about their impacts (Balogh and Jambor,
* Corresponding author. School of Economics and Management, Qingdao Uni-
versity of Science and Technology, Qingdao, 266061, China.
E-mail address: lichangsheng@qust.edu.cn (C. Li).
2017; Cole, 2006) (Antweiler et al., 2001; Copeland and Taylor,
1994; Frankel and Rose, 2005; Gozgor, 2017; Guan et al., 2014;
Managi et al., 2008, 2009; Ståhls et al., 2011; Yasmeen et al.,
2018; Zhang, 2018; Zhang et al., 2017). With regard to research
perspective, embodied flows, such as virtual water, embodied en-
ergy, embodied CO2 flow, and embodied air pollutants, have been
widely employed to environmental degradation caused by inter-
national trade by many researchers (Cazcarro et al., 2016;
Chapagain and Hoekstra, 2011; Hui et al., 2017; Kinna, 2016;
Wakeel et al., 2017; Wan et al., 2016; Zhang, et al., 2018a; Zhao
et al., 2015; Barrett et al., 2013; Bo et al., 2018; Dolter and Victor,
2016; Meng et al., 2018; Peters et al., 2011; Wang and Jiang, 2019;
Wang et al., 2019; Wang and Zhou, 2019b).
With the rapid growth of the trade flow of goods and services
between China and the BR regions, its environmental load
displacement and effects have become an increasing research topic
in recent years. Several studies have attempted to investigate their
environmental effects from a perspective of embodies flow. For
instance, Wang and Zhou, 2019a, 2019b investigated the environ-
mental effects of agricultural products trade among the BR coun-
tries from the perspective of virtual water. They founded that

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119126
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Please cite this article as: Li, C., Liu, B., Air pollution embodied in China’s trade with the BR countries: Transfer pattern and environmental
implication, Journal of Cleaner Production, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119126
2 C. Li, B. Liu / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (xxxx) xxx

although China was in virtual water trade surplus with the coun- Identifying eri as the emission intensity of Sector i in Region r and
tries along the Belt and Road, more than 40 spanning countries diagonal matrix b E ¼ ½eri mnmn , then global embodied air pollution
were in virtual water trade surplus with China and helped ease flows can be represented by Em (mnm) as Eq. (3):
their water shortages. Han et al. (2018) studied embodied carbon
flows in the Belt and Road regions. They found that the BR regions Em ¼ b
ELF (3)
were net suppliers of embodied carbon to developed countries.
Air pollution serves the biggest environmental risk to public According to Equ. (3), embodied flows of the six air pollutants
health. However, environmental load displacement and effects of between China and BR countries can be obtained and thus the
China-BR trade, from the perspective of embodied air pollution, emissions embodied in their imports (EEI) and exports (EEX). The
have received little attention. This paper will address this issue by difference between EEI and EEX (Muradian et al., 2002), termed as
adopting a MRIO based on EORA database. The embodied air the balance of emission embodied in trade (BEET) reflecting its net
pollution transfer among nations and sectors, and its effects on embodied air pollution transfer and environmental effect of trade.
efficiency, environmental pressures, and sustainability are In order to obtain the embodied pollution intensity of the
comprehensively examined. The key findings of this article are: import (IIM) and export (IEX), whose changes can reveal the green
First, the embodied air pollution displacement between China and degree of China’s trade with the BR countries, six air pollutants are
the BR regions is aggravated. Second, China ran the surplus of converted into pollution equivalents by dividing by their respective
embodied air pollution trade with the BR. Most of the net transfer equivalent values. IEX and IIM can be obtained from Equ. (4) and
mainly comes from China’s energy importers with better air quality Equ. (5), respectively.
and a higher Human Development Index (HDI). Third, net 
P
embodied air pollution flows from the BR countries to China PEj PEVj
decreased the overall efficiency. Lastly, the technology effect served IEX ¼ ðj ¼ 1; 2; …; 6Þ (4)
EX
as the main force driving China trade with the BR countries in a
greener way. P 
PEj PEVj
To the best of my knowledge, this is the first empirical study on IIM ¼ ðj ¼ 1; 2; …; 6Þ (5)
air pollution displacement and its effects of China’s trade with the IM
BR countries. The contributions of this paper are twofold: it en-
Where, j is the type of pollutants, PEj ,PEVj ; EX; and IM represent
riches the research on the BR by investigating air pollution
pollutant emission, conversion coefficient, export, and import,
displacement and its effects of China-BR trade. Second, the paper
respectively.
provides policy insights for policymakers to develop coordinating
policies shaping a sustainable BRI.
The remainder of this paper is organized as follows. Section 2
introduces the methodology. Results and analysis are presented
in section 3. Conclusion and policy implication is provided in the 2.1.2. Index decomposition method
last section. Due to a number of desirable attributes, LMDI method has been
widely used in energy and environment research fields (Chong
2. Methods and material et al., 2017; Mousavi et al., 2017; Torrie et al., 2016; Wang et al.,
2014; Wei et al., 2016). For a perfect decomposition and simpler
2.1. Methods formula, this paper adopts the LMDI-I method to study the forces
driving the changes in embodied pollution intensity of China’s
2.1.1. MRIO model trade with the BR countries. The total effect is decomposed into the
Due to its heterogeneity hypothesis, the ability capturing the re- trade sector structure effect (DS), technological progress effect (DT),
export and feedback effect, and tracking the economic relationships and pollutant structure effect (DP).
among different regions and sectors (Zhang et al., 2017), multi-
region input-output (MRIO) models have been widely used to EEX XX EXi EEXi EEXij XX XX
IEX ¼ ¼ ¼ IEXij ¼ Si Ti Pij
analyze embodied flows (Moran and Kanemoto, 2016; Peters and EX EX EXi EXX i
i j i j i j
Hertwich, 2008; Wang et al., 2017; Yu et al., 2014; Zhao et al., 2015).
The key equation is intermediate consumption plus final de- (6)
mand equates to total economic output. In a world consisting of m
regions with n sectors, the key equation for Sector i in region r is IEX t
expressed as: Dtot ¼ ¼ DðSÞ*DðTÞ*DðPÞ (7)
IEX 0
X
m X
n X
m
xri ¼ ars s
f rs !!
ij $xj þ ii ðr; s ¼ 1; 2; …m; i; j ¼ 1; 2…nÞ (1) XX Sti
s¼1 j¼1 s¼1 DS ¼ exp wij ln (8)
i j S0i
Here, xri
is the gross output of Sector i in Region the so- r,ars
ij ,
called technical coefficient, represents the intermediate input de- !!
mand for the output of Sector i in Region r per unit of output of XX T ti
Sector j in Region s, and f rs DT ¼ exp wij ln (9)
ii represents Region s’ final demand for the T 0i
output of Sector i in Region r. i j

Equation (1) can be expressed in the form of a matrix as:

!!
XX P tij
X ¼ AX þ F ¼ ðI  AÞ1 F ¼ LF (2) DP ¼ exp wij ln 0 (10)
i j P ij
Where X ¼ ½xri mn1 , A ¼ ½ars
ij mnmn , F ¼ ½f rs
ii mnn , L is a Leontief
inverse matrix (mnmn). Where,

Please cite this article as: Li, C., Liu, B., Air pollution embodied in China’s trade with the BR countries: Transfer pattern and environmental
implication, Journal of Cleaner Production, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119126
 C. Li, B. Liu / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (xxxx) xxx
! had dropped dramatically from 2010 to 2015. Fig. 1 showed that
EEX tij EEX 0
L EX t ， EX 0ij ;
wij ¼   (11)
L IEX t ，IEX 0
8 course with the total embodied pollution. As shown in Fig. 2, China
>
< ab
asb
Lða; bÞ ¼ lnðaÞ  lnðbÞ
>
: achieved significant reductions. NH3 decreased from 0.24 Kt to
a a¼b
Here, Subscripts t and 0 are reporting period and base period,
respectively.
2.2. Countries along the Belt and Road
The BRI, proposed by China in 2013, aims to boost trade and
economic growth across Asia and beyond by promoting coopera-
tion and development. As an open, inclusive, and new models of
international cooperation and global governance, the active
participation of all countries is welcome (Zhang, et al., 2018b). More
than 130 countries have signed the BRI cooperation agreements
with China by the end of 2018. Its boundary has expanded to Asia,
Europe, Africa, and Latin America. For easy analysis, we still set out
scope for its original 65 spanning countries.1
2.3. Data sources and processing
In the past few decades, several MRIO tables have been built by
different organizations. The representative MRIO tables mainly
include Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) data-
base, the World Input-Output Database (WIOD), GTAP (Global
Trade Analysis Project) database, and the Eora database. Compared
to other databases, the Eora database is the most detailed global
scale MRIO database by now, covering 189 individual economies,
features a 26-sector harmonized industrial classification, and has
longer periods of time (Lenzen et al., 2012). Furthermore, the
database provides satellite accounts for energy use and environ-
mental pollution, which is suitable to analyze embodied regional
pollution transfers and their impacts on countries along the Belt
and Road.
All data used in this paper are derived from the Eora database
from 2010 to 2015. The respective equivalent values for six air
pollutants came from the Environmental Protection Tax Law of the
People’s Republic of China.2
3. Result and analysis
3.1. Transfer and its pattern
As shown in Fig. 1, China was in embodied air pollution trade
surplus with the BR regions. China’s EEX to the BR countries
decreased from 4.32 million tones of air pollution equivalent (APE)
in 2010 to 4.00 million tones APE in 2015. While China imported
embodied air pollution from the BR regions increased from 5.92
million tones APE in 2010 to 6.45 million tones APE in 2015. The
surplus increased from 1.60 million tons APE in 2010 to 2.45 million
tons APE in 2015.
Regarding the changes in their intensity, China’s IEX and its IIM
1
Timor and Palestine are not include in EORA database.
2
The PEVs of CO, NOx, NMVOC, NH3, SO2, and PM10 are 6.70, 0.95, 0.95, 9.09,
0.95, and 4.00, respectively. Due to no NMVOC’s PE, PE of VOCs(volatile organic
compounds) is a proxy for NMVOC. Source: Environmental Protection Tax Law of
the People’s Republic of China.
Please cite this article as: Li, C., Liu, B., Air pollution embodied in China’s trade with the BR countries: Transfer pattern and environmental
implication, Journal of Cleaner Production, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119126
3
China’s IEX dropped from 17.6 to 11.5 Kt.APE/billion.USD decreased
by 34.2%. On the other hand, China’s IIM from the BR countries
decreased by 19.7% from 25.0 Kg.APE/billion USD in 2010 to
20.1 Kg.APE/billion USD in 2015.
Six embodied individual air pollutants had experienced a similar
exported six embodied pollutants to the BR countries that had
(12)
0.21 Kt with the largest drop of 16.23% followed by NOx and SO2
with a decrease of 7.50% and 7.49%, respectively. While the growth
rates of six embodied pollutants exported from the BR countries to
China vary from 7.7% to 11.2%. CO led the increase with a growth
rate of 11.21% and amounted to 6.9 million tons in 2015.
Regarding changes in the IEXs of six embodied pollutants, the
decline rate varies from 33.32% to 40.67%. Embodied NH3 in China’s
export to the BR countries has witnessed the largest drop by
40.67%. With regard to changes in the IIMs of six embodied pol-
lutants, the largest drop occurs to NOx with a decrease of 20.73%.
Continuously decreasing China’s IEX and IIM indicated that China’s
trade with the BR countries is undergoing a more environmental-
friendly way.
The fast decline rate of the IEXs of China was attributed to its
ambitious air pollutant measurements. For example, China’s gov-
ernment released its toughest plan to combat air pollution in 2013
known as ‘Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan’.
Compared with 2010, emissions of NH3, SO2 and NOx decreased by
18.0%, 13.0% and 18.6% in 2015 (MEP, 2015).
For the national level, generally, the direction of net embodied
air pollution transfer is opposite to the net trade flows. More than
40 BR countries were in embodied air pollution trade deficit with
China. Six of the ten top embodied air pollution exporters were in
trade surplus with China. These countries mainly included
Kazakhstan, Russia, Indonesia, Oman, Mongolia, Philippines, and
Saudi Arabia (see Fig. 3a) and their embodied air pollution trade
deficit accounted for about 72% of the total. The trade surplus of
Russia’s amounted to 29.4 billion USD in 2015 (see Fig. 3b).
About one-third of the BR countries, including Turkey,
Montenegro, UAE, Singapore, Bangladesh, Romania, Czech Repub-
lic, Slovakia and among others, were in embodied air pollution
trade surplus with China (see Fig. 3b). While eight of the ten top net
embodied air pollution importers were in trade deficit with China.
For example, Turkey’s trade deficit with China amounted to 11.96
billion dollars in 2015.
Another remarkable feature of net embodied air pollution trade
between the BR countries and China is that net embodied air
pollution was mainly transferred from energy exporters. Seven of
the ten top embodied air pollution exporters to China were its key
fossil energy suppliers in the BR regions. For instance, Russia, Saudi
Arabia, and Oman are key to China’s crude oil importers. The im-
ported crude oil from the above three countries accounted for
34.88% of China’s total imported crude oil in 2018. Mongolia,
Indonesia, and Philippines serve as the key coal suppliers. While
Kazakhstan is one of the natural gas suppliers of China. Fossil en-
ergy mining and processing consumed primary energy and emitted
a great amount of air pollution.
Those countries that received net embodied air pollution from
China were in a trade deficit with China. These countries mainly
referred to some developed ones, such as the UAE, Singapore,
Bangladesh, Romania, Czech Republic, Slovakia. A large number of
goods made in China were exported to these countries (Fig. 4).
From the perspective of sectors, as shown in Fig. 5, net
embodied air pollution transfer mainly occurred to key sectors,
such as Petroleum, Chemical and Non-Metallic Mineral Products,
Metal Products, Agriculture, Mining and Quarrying, Electricity, Gas
4 C. Li, B. Liu / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (xxxx) xxx

17.6 20.0

5.0 14.3 13.7 11.6

12.4 15.0
11.5

EEX (Mt APE)

(Kt APE/billion USD)

Intensity of EEX
10.0
3.0
4.3 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.2 5.0
4.0

1.0 0.0

5.0
1.0
10.0

3.0 5.9 15.0

(Kt APE/billion USD)

6.7 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.5

Intensity of EEI
20.0
EEI (Mt.APE)

18.9
5.0 20.2 19.5 20.1
20.8
25.0
25.0
7.0 30.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

EEX EEI IEX IIM

Fig. 1. Embodied air pollutant flow and its intensity between China and the BR countries.

6.0 20.0

Intensity of EX (Kt/billion USD)

16.3
EEX (MKt)

10.8 15.0
4.0 EEX EEI
7.6
IEX IIM 10.0
4.3
2.0 2.1 2.2
5.0 3.2 2.8
0.6 1.5 5.0
1.0

0.0
0.0

5.0

2.0 3.4 2.7 3.7 10.0

6.7 4.9 4.6
5.4

9.2 7.4
4.0 15.0
Intensity of EEI (Kt/billion USD)

20.0
21.3
EEI (Mt.)

6.0
25.0

26.1
8.0 30.0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

CO SO2 NMVOC NOx NH3 PM10

Fig. 2. Six embodied pollutants and their intensity in China’s trade with the BR counties.

and Water. Among these sectors, Electricity, Gas and Water were in
net embodied air pollution trade surplus with China. Although
there was little direct product trade in Electricity, Gas and Water
sector between China and the BR countries. BR countries imported
a lot of goods from China. In 2015, China’s sectors including Textiles
and Wearing Apparel, Metal Products, Electrical and Machinery,
Transport Equipment, Other Manufacturing were in trade surplus
with the BR countries. Massive power was consumed in these
manufacturing sectors and resulted in considerable air pollution
emission.

Please cite this article as: Li, C., Liu, B., Air pollution embodied in China’s trade with the BR countries: Transfer pattern and environmental
implication, Journal of Cleaner Production, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119126
 C. Li, B. Liu / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (xxxx) xxx 5

EEX EEI BEET

650 650
BEET>0 BEET<0
EEX (Kt.APE)

450 450

250 250

BEET(Kt APE)
50 50

150 -150
EEI (Kt.APE)

350 -350

550 -550

Brunei

Viet Nam

Kazakhstan
Sri Lanka

Poland
Lithuania

Latvia

Uzbekistan

Malaysia
Pakistan

Thailand
Bangladesh

Armenia

Slovenia

Oman
Serbia

Israel
Slovakia

Nepal
Egypt

India

Cambodia
Albania

Tajikistan

Estonia
Bhutan

Iraq

Yemen
UAE

Russia
Turkey

Maldives
Turkmenistan

Kyrgyzstan
Bulgaria

Qatar

Iran

Philippines
Romania

Moldova
Lebanon

Hungary

Saudi Arabia
Czech Republic

Bahrain

Belarus
Kuwait

Laos

Indonesia
Mongolia
Singapore

Croatia

Afghanistan
Montenegro

Azerbaijan
Jordan

Georgia

TFYR Macedonia

Ukraine

Myanmar
Syria

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Fig. 3a. Environmental surplus of the BR countries trade with China in 2015.

pollution flowed from BR countries to China. A possible explanation

for this phenomenon lies in differences in production efficiency
between China and the BR countries. Another explanation is
different positions in the production chain between China and the
BR countries. Generally, most of the BR countries are still at
industrialization start stage and usually located at lower position of
production chain than that of China. China might import primary
product as an intermediate product with higher air pollution in-
tensity and then exported products with a lower air pollution in-
tensity to the BR counties.

3.2. Environmental effects

3.2.1. Pressure transfer

Fig. 3b. The trade surplus of the BR countries with China in 2015.
Net embodied air pollution mainly flowed out the BR countries
to China by Mining and Quarrying, and Agriculture sectors. Their
net embodied air pollution flows amounted to 1.28 million tonnes
APE and 0.94 million tonnes APE in 2015, respectively. They
accounted for more than 70% of the total net embodied air pollution
flows out of the BR countries. These reflected the fact that, as the
most populous country and the second-largest economy in the
world, China needs to import large quantities of agricultural
products and minerals from the BR countries to meet domestic
production and living needs.
Most embodied air pollution flows at the sectoral level had the
same as the trade flows, which is consistent with the previous
study (Wang and Zhou, 2019a, 2019b). However, embodied air
pollution flows in some sectors had the opposite direction as the
trade flows. For example, the Metal Products sector had a trade
deficit with China. This meant that the net goods flow in this sector
were transferred from China to the BR countries. Meanwhile the
negative BEET, according to its definition, implied net embodied air
Fig. 6 represents the environmental pressure transfer between
the BR countries and China. Here, environmental pressure is
measured by the difference between PM2.5 air pollution (mean
annual exposure) and China’s level. Therefore, environmental
pressure transfer can be measured by the net volume of embodied
air pollution with the unit of thousand tons APE.
From Fig. 6, the majority of the net embodied air pollution
flowed to China was mainly from those countries with less envi-
ronmental pressure (grey). Kazakhstan, Russia, Myanmar,
Cambodia, and Indonesia led the top five contributors. Air pollut-
ants flowed from countries with less environmental pressure to a
higher one (China) means these suppliers bear no significant
environmental pressure and can help improve the overall envi-
ronmental performance.
However, when the net embodied air pollutants are transferred
from countries with higher PM2.5 exposure to lower ones, sup-
pliers will face somewhat environmental transfer. For the BR
countries, they transferred 154.8 Kt APE environmental pressure in
trade with China in 2015. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan are the main
suppliers. For example, Saudi Arabia’s PM2.5 concentration is
higher than that of China with 38.4 59 mg/m3 and exported 100.8 Kt
the net embodied air pollution to China in 2015. While China also

Please cite this article as: Li, C., Liu, B., Air pollution embodied in China’s trade with the BR countries: Transfer pattern and environmental
implication, Journal of Cleaner Production, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119126
6 C. Li, B. Liu / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (xxxx) xxx

40

BT(Billion dollars)
Russia,530.7
Malaysia,99.4
30
Indonesia,154.9
Singapore,48.9
20

Kazakhstan,535.0 Montenegro,133.1

10
Oman,142.8

0
-700 -600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300
BEET( Kt.APE)

Cambodia,195.4 -10

Myanmar,350.1
Saudi Arabia,100.8
UAE,97.5 Turkey,158.6
-20

Fig. 4. BEET and trade balance of the BR countries’ trade with China.

1000
BEET(Kt.APE)

Electricity, Gas and Water,-

800 0.07 633.46 ,

600

400

200

0
-40 -20 0 20 40 60
-200 BT(Billion dollars)

-400 Agriculture,10.16 , -938.14 ,

-600
Mining and Quarrying,34.76 ,
-800 -1278.44 ,
Metal Products,-7.90 , -425.40 ,

-1000

-1200

-1400

-1600
Fig. 5. Sectoral net embodied air pollution transfer and trade balance.

transferred 616.3 Kt APE environmental pressure to the BR counties
with lower PM2.5 exposure in 2015. Turkey, Montenegro, and UAE
are the main receivers. They received 158.6, 133.1, and 97.5 Kt APE
embodied air pollution in 2015, respectively.
3.2.2. Transfer efficiency
We further investigate the efficiency of net embodied air
pollution flow between China and the BR countries. The efficiency
is defined as the output per embodied air pollutant, with a unit of
thousand USD/Kt.APE, which is the reciprocal function of the
embodied air pollutant intensity. If net embodied air pollutants
flow from counties/regions with higher efficiency to the lower
ones, this flow can increase the overall efficiency of embodied air
pollutants.
Fig. 7 presents the efficiency of net embodied air pollutants flow
between China and the BR countries. Due to most of the BR coun-
tries’ embodied air pollution efficiency lower than that of China, the
main transfer flows to China decreased the overall embodied
pollution efficiency and the net inefficiency embodied pollution
flows amount to 3080.9 Kt.APE in 2015. The key suppliers include
Kazakhstan, Russia, Myanmar, Cambodia, and Indonesia and among
others. While another net inefficiency embodied pollution flows

Please cite this article as: Li, C., Liu, B., Air pollution embodied in China’s trade with the BR countries: Transfer pattern and environmental
implication, Journal of Cleaner Production, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119126
 C. Li, B. Liu / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (xxxx) xxx 7

300 Bangladesh, 39.1 ,

Turkey, 158.6 ,
Montenegro, 133.1
UAE, 97.5 Nepal, 9.0
200

Egypt, 12.9 Qatar,42.3

100 Environmental pressure (ug/m3 )

0
-80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60
-100 Iraq, 28.5
Cambodia,195
-200 Pakistan,37.3
Indonesia, 154.9 Yemen, -63.8
-300
Saudi Arabia, 100.8
Kazakhstan,535 -400

BEET (Kt.APE)
-500
Myanmar, 350.1
-600

Russia, 530.7 -700

Fig. 6. Environmental pressure transfer between the BR countries and China.

700.0 Kazakhstan:5.36,535.0 Rssia:19.5,530.7

BEET(Kt.APE)

600.0 China
Output efficiency:25.0

500.0

400.0

Cambodia:1.5, 195.4 Myanmar:6.2,350.1

300.0
Indonesia:15.4 , 154.9

200.0

Qatar,26.0, 42.3 UAE:41.9,-97.5

100.0
Czech Republic,27.4 , -30.6

0.0
-10.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0

-100.0
Singapore,27.8 , -48.9
Bangladesh:16.6,-39.1 Output Efficiency
-200.0
Montenegro:24.1,-133.1 (Thousand USD/Kg)
Turkey:22.0,-158.6
-300.0
Lebanon 9.8,-21.7
Fig. 7. Comparisons of embodied air pollutants transfer volume and output efficiency between China and the BR countries in 2015.

are exported to the BR countries with higher embodied air pollu-
tion efficiencies, such as UAE, Singapore, and Czech Republic
(green) and are about 177 Kt.APE in 2015.
3.2.3. Transfer and sustainability
Another key concern of the BRI from the international
community is its sustainability implication. Fig. 8 presents the
relationship of net embodied air pollutants transfer with their
sustainability level. Here, the Human Development Index (HDI)
represents the countries’ sustainable level. According to China’s
Human Development Index, China is classified as a high human
development country in 2015. From Fig. 7, the net embodied air

Please cite this article as: Li, C., Liu, B., Air pollution embodied in China’s trade with the BR countries: Transfer pattern and environmental
implication, Journal of Cleaner Production, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119126
8 C. Li, B. Liu / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (xxxx) xxx

800

BEET(Kt.APE)
Low Human Medium Human High Human Very high Human
Development Development Development Development

600
Russia, 0.813,530.7
Kazakhstan,0.797 , 535.0

400 Cambodia, 0.571 , 195.4 Myanmar,0.809 , 350.1

Indonesia,0.686 , 154.9
Iran,0.483 , 63.8
200

0
0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00
HDI
-200

-400
China's Human
Development index 0.743

Fig. 8. Embodied air pollutants transfer and sustainability between China and the BR countries in 2015.

pollutants to China are mainly transferred from countries with increased by 5.9% which means the import of China from the BR
Medium Human development and above. The net embodied air countries in 2015 became dirtier compared to that in 2014.
pollutants are transferred from the BR countries with higher HDIs With regard to the driving forces, LMDI-I analysis of the
than China, which accounts for 56.4% of the total. However, extra decrease in the IEX and in the IIM is similar. The biggest contri-
attention should be paid to those suppliers who belonged to Low bution lies in its technological effect. It decreased by 33.9% in the
and Medium development countries. Air pollution could cause IEX and 21.8% in the IIM, respectively. The trade structure effect has
more damage to local residents due to inadequate public medical a negative effect on their decreases. It increased by 2.6% in IEX and
facilities. 1.4% in the IIM, respectively. However, the values of the pollutant
structure effect are almost close to the one and indicated it has no
3.3. Driven forces analysis contribution to the change in IEX and IIM.
Differences in the contribution of trade structure and techno-
According to the above analysis, we find that the IEX and IIM of logical progress to the decrease in China IEX could be explained by
China witnessed a significant drop from 2010 to 2015. What drives follows. According to the previous studies, domestic industrial
China’s trade with the BR countries in a greener way? In this part, structure and technological progress are the main factors affecting
we applied the LMDI-I method to decompose the IIM and IEX into trade structure (Liu and Zhang, 2016; Wang and Song, 2019; Zhang,
trade structure effect, technology effect and pollution structure 2011; Zhao and Zhou, 2009). Technological innovation in China’s
effect to check their driving forces. The results are shown in Table 1. energy and environment fields gained extra momentum from 2010
Table 1 shows the decomposition results of China’s IEX and IIM, to 2015, which were triggered by its national ambitious energy-
respectively. Generally speaking, the IEX has witnessed a drop of saving and emission reduction plan and toughest plan to combat
34.3% from 2010 to 2015. In the subsequent periods 2001e2012, air pollution.
2012e2013 and 2013e2014, and 2014e2015, the IEX decreased by However, China’s industrial structure updating was blocked by
4.0%, 10.0%, 6.1% and 0.6%, respectively. its bold fiscal stimulus programs embarked in late 2008 and 2009.
Regarding the change in the IIM, it decreased by 19.1 percent The stimulus efforts aimed to create supply rather than making up
from 2010 to 2015. In the subsequent periods 2001e2012, for the lack of demand in the economy, which exerted adverse ef-
2012e2013 and 2013e2014, the IIM deceased by16.9%, 2.8%, 3.2%, fects on China’s domestic industrial structure and its trade struc-
and3.5%, respectively. However, during 2014e2015, the IIM ture. It was testified by (Liu and Zhang, 2016) Liu and Zhang (2016)
whose study showed that the shares of resource-intensive goods
and low-tech products in China trade volume experienced an in-
Table 1
crease from 2010 to 201, which were abnormal to China trade
LMDI decomposition of the changes in China’s IEX and IIM during 2010e2015.
structure changes in past decades.
Periods IEX IIM An interesting result is that the pollutant structure effect has
Dtot (1) DS (2) DT (3) DP (4) Dtot (5) DS (6) DT (7) DP (8) almost no contribution to the decrease in China’s IEX. As we know,
2010e2011 0.815 1.007 0.810 1.000 0.831 1.006 0.826 1.000
air pollutants mainly come from fuel combustion and industrial
2011e2012 0.960 0.997 0.963 1.000 0.972 1.002 0.970 1.000 process. The result seems to conflict with China’s great efforts to cut
2012e2013 0.900 1.004 0.896 1.000 0.968 1.000 0.967 1.000 air pollution. From 2015 to 2010, emissions of major pollutants in
2013e2014 0.939 1.013 0.928 1.000 0.965 1.000 0.965 1.000 the exhaust gas, such as SO2 and NOx, were reduced by 18% and
2014e2015 0.994 1.005 0.989 1.000 1.064 1.005 1.059 1.000
18.6%, respectively (MEP, 2015). However, the same proportion of
2010e2015 0.657 1.026 0.641 1.000 0.803 1.014 0.792 1.000

Please cite this article as: Li, C., Liu, B., Air pollution embodied in China’s trade with the BR countries: Transfer pattern and environmental
implication, Journal of Cleaner Production, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119126
 C. Li, B. Liu / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (xxxx) xxx 9

Table 2
LMDI decomposition of China’s sectoral embodied pollutants intensity changes during 2010e2015.

IEX IIM

Dtot (1) DS (2) DT (3) DP (4) Dtot (1) DS (2) DT (3) DP (4)

Agriculture 0.991 0.999 0.992 1.000 0.971 1.005 0.966 1.000

Fishing 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 0.999 1.000
Mining and quarrying 0.966 1.008 0.959 1.000 0.950 0.999 0.952 1.000
Food & Beverages 0.996 1.000 0.996 1.000 0.996 1.001 0.995 1.000
Textiles and wearing Apparel 0.989 1.001 0.989 1.000 0.997 0.999 0.998 1.000
Wood and paper 0.997 1.000 0.997 1.000 0.997 1.000 0.997 1.001
Petroleum, chemical and non-metallic mineral products 0.945 1.003 0.942 1.000 0.973 0.999 0.974 1.000
Metal products 0.965 1.001 0.964 1.000 0.973 1.006 0.967 1.000
Electrical and machinery 0.969 0.998 0.971 1.000 0.990 0.999 0.991 1.000
Transport equipment 0.993 1.000 0.993 1.000 0.998 1.000 0.998 1.000
Other manufacturing 0.997 1.000 0.997 1.000 0.999 1.000 0.999 1.000
Recycling 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.998 1.000 0.998 1.000
Electricity, gas and water 0.869 1.013 0.858 1.000 0.976 0.999 0.977 1.000
Construction 0.999 1.000 0.999 1.000 0.999 1.000 0.999 1.000
Maintenance and repair 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 1.000 1.000
Wholesale trade 0.999 1.000 0.999 1.000 0.999 1.000 0.999 1.000
Retail trade 0.998 1.000 0.998 1.000 0.999 1.000 0.999 1.000
Hotels and restaurants 0.998 1.000 0.998 1.000 0.999 1.000 0.999 1.000
Transport 0.937 1.003 0.934 1.000 0.978 0.999 0.979 1.000
Post and telecommunications 0.999 1.000 0.999 1.000 0.999 1.000 0.999 1.000
Financial intermediation and business activities 0.992 1.000 0.992 1.000 0.996 1.000 0.996 1.000
Public administration 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
Education, health and Other services 0.996 1.000 0.996 1.000 0.998 1.001 0.998 1.000
Private households 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 0.999 1.000
Others 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.999 1.000 0.999 1.000
Total 0.657 1.026 0.641 1.000 0.803 1.009 0.796 1.000

reduction in major pollutants indicated that China’s air pollution
structure had no significant changes from 2010 to 2015.
From the sectoral perspective (see Table 2), Electricity, gas and
water, and Transport, Petroleum, chemical and non-metallic min-
eral products, severed as the main contributors to the decreases in
China’s IEX. Their IEX reduced by 13.1%, 6.3%, and 5.5% over our
period of analysis, respectively. The results reflected the achieve-
ments of energy and emission efficiency improvement in the above
sectors. Coal-fired power supply coal consumption per kWh was
reduced from 333 g of Coal equivalent in 2010 to 318 g of Coal
equivalent in 2015 (State Council, 2013, 2016). On the other hand,
desulfurization facilities covered more than 99% of coal-fired power
plants by the end of 2015. The coal-fired power with denitrification
facilities increased from 0.8 billion kilowatts to 830 million kilo-
watts, and the installation rate increased from 12% in 2010 to 92% in
2015 (MEP, 2015).
Regarding the decreases in China’s IIM, Wood and paper, other
manufacturing, and construction sectors served as the most con-
tributors and decreased by 2.1%,1.5%, and 1.3% over our period of
analysis, respectively. A possible explanation was that the increased
international demand and a large amount of foreign investment
might improve their technological level and output efficiency,
especially in Wood and paper and Construction sectors.
4. Conclusion and policy implication
4.1. Conclusion
In this paper, we investigated the embodied air pollution
displacement of China-BR trade. The results showed that the air
pollution displacement was aggravated in the period of analysis,
which would add worries that China would phase out its polluting
industries to the BR countries to achieve its domestic green shift. In
this case, environmental damage and pollution was simply trans-
ferred rather than genuinely reduced (Tracy et al., 2017), which was
not conducive to the BR regions’ sustainable development.
Another finding of our work was that China ran the surplus of
embodied air pollution trade with the BR countries. Due to most of
the BR countries are at the crucial stage of industrialization and
urbanization, our findings align with the previous studies which
found embodied flows were mainly transferred from the less
developed countries/regions to developed ones. (Han et al., 2018;
Zhang, et al., 2018a; Zhao et al., 2015). The difference between
our findings with the previous papers lied in China’s embodied air
pollution trade surplus mainly came from its fossil energy im-
porters in the regions. For the sectors, Agriculture, Mining and
Quarrying sectors served the main suppliers to China.
Regarding its environmental effects, although air pollution load
displacement of China-BR trade was aggravated, most embodied air
pollutants mainly came from countries with better air quality and
higher HDI than that of China. This would somewhat ease the worry
that China’s trade with the BR countries would lead to environ-
mental deterioration. However, from the perspective of output ef-
ficiency, the inefficiency flows of embodies air pollution form the
BR countries to China lowered the overall efficiency.
Decomposition analysis showed that the driving forces for the
reduction of China’s IEX and IIM were similar. The technological
effect served as the most critical driving force for their reduction.
For example, the technological effect of China’s IEX decreased by
33.9%, while it reduced by 21.8% in China’s IIM. This finding was
similar to that of existing literature (Rui and Ri-jia, 2018; Xie. and
Zhao., 2016). However, the trade structure effect increased the
embodied air pollution intensity of China-BR countries. Pollutant
structure effect had also no contribution to the reduction in China’s
IEX and IIM over the period of analysis.
The results and conclusions of embodied air pollution flow in
China-BR trade and structural decomposition analysis are helpful
for us to derive the following policy implications.
To ease the growing concerns resulting from the aggravated air
pollution load displacement of China-BR trade, China has to put its
ecological civilization theories into the practice of building a green
BRI. For example, the Chinese government should encourage

Please cite this article as: Li, C., Liu, B., Air pollution embodied in China’s trade with the BR countries: Transfer pattern and environmental
implication, Journal of Cleaner Production, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119126
10 C. Li, B. Liu / Journal of Cleaner Production xxx (xxxx) xxx
Chinese companies to adopt more green technologies to update
their excess capacity when they move them to the BR countries.
Furthermore, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the New
Development Bank, mainly funded by the Chinese government,
should pay much attention to green finance mechanisms to
enhance the BR countries’ sustainable ability. On the other hand, to
counter the adverse effects of trade structure, great efforts are
needed for China to further update its industrial structure and
embrace a knowledge-based and service-oriented economy. These
sectors are located in the downstream of the industrial chain and
can bring a large amount of economic output (Wang and Zhou,
2019a).
For the BR countries, although some countries had a relatively
better environmental performance in terms of PM2.5 exposure
than that of China, most of these countries still are at the early stage
of industrialization and urbanization with a fragile ecological
environment. Therefore, these countries should enhance their
environmental standards. This would help them avoid the adverse
effects of traditional industrialization and urbanization. For natural
resources exporting countries, they should vigorously develop their
manufacturing industries with more advanced technology, which
could help them transform from natural resources exporters to
resource product exporters. Besides, China’s successful experience
in combating air pollution and the technology of green power
generation will help the BR countries better deal with such issues.
For the world, all nations should promote technical cooperation
to promote green development, especially between developed and
less developed countries. This requires that all nations should
facilitate the transfer of green and applicable technologies to
developing countries along the BR route. Besides, all nations should
intensify their cooperation on formulating environmental agree-
ments to control embodied air pollution in trade activities.
In this paper, we conducted an empirical study on air pollution
load displacement of China-BR trade. Our decomposition analysis
showed that pollutant structure seems to have no contribution to
the decreases in China’s embodied air pollution intensity. How to
play the role of pollutant structure effects to further decrease the
embodied air pollution intensity, we need further researches.
Declaration of competing interestsCOI
All authors have no competing financial interests.
Acknowledgements
This paper is funded by the National Natural Science Foundation
of China (No. 71303126), Natural Science Foundation of Shandong
Province (No. ZR2013GQ008), and Philosophy and Social Science
Planning Research Project of Qingdao (No.QDKSL170113).
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