A TRANSPORTATION MODEL OF HUMANITARIAN LOGISTICS

Student name, student ID (email address)

Abstract
Natural disaster is an unpredictable event that occur without any warning. Thus, the
humanitarian logistics become crucial to the relief operations and the arise to use simulation
modelling in order to test various scenario to give better decision making and flexibility on the
resource usage. This paper describes the discrete event simulation study of humanitarian
logistics performed by a company in Malaysia. The flow of logistics operation from collecting
the resources until the distribution is studied. In the simulation, 7 models has been introduced.
The simulation model has been derived using ARENA software in order to analyse the waiting
time the entity completion the task. Finally, the best transportation model is proposed by having
the support of another scenario.

Keywords: Simulation, non-government organizations humanitarian logistics flow,

transportation model.

1.0 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background of the study

Natural disaster, urbanization and climate changes are pressuring the disaster relief operations.
In Malaysia are expected to incur economics loss about $127,400,000 on 10 years moving
average in 2015-2014 mostly on flood according to disaster data and statistics from United
Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR). The topic of this paper is on
humanitarian logistics which can be known as the most expensive part in the logistics processes
that accounts about 80% of the total costs (Day, Melnyk, Larson, Davis, & Whybark, 2012).
Humanitarian logistics can be identified as a method or practices in the logistics relief
operations for the mitigation of the effect of disasters (Liu & Yi, 2018). The aim of this paper
is to identify the problem and to optimize the transportation model been made by a non-
government organizations.

Being prepared and knowing how to appropriately respond to a disaster is an essential part of
any crisis management plan (Sprenger & Mönch, 2011). Designing a relief network is included
in this preparation, which it is characterized by a two-level structure: central warehouses and
local distribution centers. The central warehouses usually located in safe places and far from

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the earthquake or disasters fault areas, since it is a high capacity of store. While, the distribution
centers located in public places such as schools, hospitals, and mosques and usually distributed
throughout the city.

In humanitarian logistics, the primary actions must be taken within the first 72 h following the
earthquake (Mitsotakis & Kassaras, 2010). The first 12 h that follow the disaster are crucial
and known as the standard relief time (SRT). The delay in taking any necessary actions might
result in the death of more people. Public and non-public organizations have to assess the
situation immediately and start sending relief products from local warehouses to damaged
areas. Perboli, Tadei, Vigo (2011) mentioned an effective and efficient humanitarian logistics
system should minimize the accidents. It is futher discuss by Goli & Alinaghian (2015) which
they said by sending and delivering relief products such as food, water, and medical equipment
to the damaged areas at the Standard Relief Time could help in minimizing the humans
casualties. That is, rapidly allocating crucial and vital items is a high priority goal in the initial
response to a catastrophic event.

1.2 Research Problem

The effect as the disaster can be worst or minor depend on how large scale of the disaster itself
since it cannot be predicted the exact time of when it will occur. Thus, it will lead the problem
on the humanitarian agencies or even the rescue team to reach the designated places.
Nowadays, the role of IT can be used to face the logistics issues and also help to make the
better decision. Usually, the standard operations procedure are applied for rescue mission but
it can lead to failure in the disaster relief since it required an abnormal number of aid operations.
The mechanism of the IT based project which integrating heterogenous networks in the cloud
platform for the emergency events management can give the flexibility on the certain
procedure. The problem in the disaster events can be associated in many different sources and
treated in different disaggregated manner. That is why the need of IT is important to analyse
the suitable ways to overcome the problem that might happen during the mission.

1.3 Research Objective

The purpose of this research is to have better understanding about simulation study which can
influence humanitarian logistics. The objective of this study as stated as below:

i. To model the current humatarian logistics into simulation software.

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 ii. To propose the best transportation model to improve the efficiency of humanitarian
logistics.

1.4 Method of Analysis

In this paper, the method chosen is simulation which gives the flexiblity to test the various
scenario which will give the better decision making for performing the operation relief strategy.
The Arena simulation software will be used to make the analysis by making the flow of the
process and adjust the flow according the scenario test.

1.6 Scope of Study

This study will discuss about a simulation study of humanitarian logistics in Malaysia disaster
relief operations which can improve the performances. Malaysia is one of the countries
expanding their performances in worldwide. The humanitarian agencies with other company
and applied fixed flexibility in the face of external doubt.

By using primary and secondary data on this study as a source to get a data about the processes
of humanitarian aid to increase the performance. All the literature review was founded from
journal and also internet material that used for supported all the independent variable as well
as dependent variables. This study more focus on discrete event simulation for humanitarian
logistics. The time series of this data collected from the past journal was 3 years which range
from year 2015 until year 2018. The interview also been conducted to the primary data for the
research.

1.7 Significant of Study

This study will explain about theory on the flexibility in transportation route of using the
simulation tool on humanitarian logistics in Malaysia disaster relief operations. The non-
government organization company able to use and explore many free cloud based simulation
software to help make better strategy.

The simulation analysis will help the organization to make the best decision when the situation
occur is the same. This study also will discuss on how it benefits the organization in term of
reducing the cost and increase the effectiveness.

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LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Company Background

The company is a non-government organization that actively respond to help people in need.
The organization was found in 2004 but it started the operation in 2006 and since then, the 12
years of operations in providing the humanitarian aid to around the world. The mission of this
organizations is to be a trustworthy and capable non-government organization (NGO) to carry
out the responsibilities as a community that cares for the needy and also to carry out the
activities to raise the funds of the establishment provided the approval of the general meeting
and the authorities. The organization has 15 members which categorized as a small-medium
organization.

2.2 Humanitarian Logistics

Disaster occur naturally or intentionally worldwide each year. According to disaster data and
statistics from United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR), between 1998-
2017, the number of disasters occur because of flood about 3,148, storm about 2,049,
earthquake about 563 and extreme temperature is around 405 occurred. Furthermore, the
number of fatalities caused by the natural disaster from 2000- 2018 about 1.2 million people
killed and in 2018 alone, about 10,300 deaths. The estimated economic losses form the natural
disasters totalled US$1.7 trillion in the same period of time (Uri & Yu, 2015). These statistics
also have the implications for the humanitarian activity in terms of preparations of the relief in
the future. Non-governmental organizations (NGO) also known as non-profit organizations
who lead by the civil society is the one who are actively respond to any kind of disaster
happened that carry out the activity such as humanitarian, educational, health care, public
policy, social, human rights, and environmental. The estimated number of NGOs worldwide is
about 10 million nowadays and it will be increase to greater number in the future.

Humanitarian logistics activities is a set of activity that specialized in the organizing the
delivery and warehousing the supplies during the natural disaster event to the designated area
and people(Díaz-Delgado & Gaytán Iniestra, 2014). Although, the activity mostly been used
in the commercial supply chains such as type and quantity and resources, the way to procure
and store the goods, tracking and specializing teams participating are important that connect
directly to humanitarian logistics(Hamedi, Haghani, & Yang, 2012). Developing the
warehouse is essential for humanitarian logistics to store the goods and can be utilized in
response planning(Daud et al., 2016). It should be located to the nearest and safe from the

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disaster which it can be facilitate the deliveries to the desired area with timely manner. The aim
of the NGO is at maximization of response and minimization of the distribution time, money
and number of distribution centre. So, the coordination of the delivery the goods and team are
crucial(D’Uffizi et al., 2015).

Logistics is the major role play in disaster preparedness among the surveillance, warning and
hazard analysis (Hamedi et al., 2012). The success rate of the humanitarian logistics is very
difficult thing to measure since it will be a huge uncertainty occur such as fluctuating demands,
hard to obtain the data from the operation, unpredictable working environment and very short
lead time (Day et al., 2012). So, with the help of the technology is the best way to have accurate
success rate for the humanitarian operation. The technology can provide the real time data and
supply chain information within the organization to help make better planning and decision. It
is also can increase the quickness of the relief operations and enhance the best coordination to
reach the affected place.

2.3 Application of Simulation in Humanitarian Logistics

Simulation is the computer experiment studies that help to create the data by pseudorandom
sampling (D’Uffizi, Simonetti, Stecca, & Confessore, 2015). The strength of the simulation is
its ability to know the behaviour of the statistical methods. Some of the ‘truth’ that are usually
parameter or interest can be known from the process of data generating and allows to consider
properties of the method (D’Uffizi et al., 2015). Simulation studies use to obtain the empirical
results about the behaviour of statistical methods in certain scenarios which can cover many
settings (Nouaouri, 2017). To obtain analytic results or may be extremely difficult. Simulation
is helpful when methods make wrong assumptions or data are messy that is, they can assess
the resilience of methods (Nouaouri, 2017). Simulation can enable the dynamicity of the
logistics systems which it used the what if method for strategic tactics and operational (D’Uffizi
et al., 2015).

Simulation also the methods to imitate the operation of the real-world systems which give the
flexibility to make the adjustment. This method is widely used in economy, biology and
engineering. It is also used as simulation of technology for performance, testing, training,
education and also video games. In the logistics of emergency scenario is strongly linked to the
uncertainty. Through this uncertainty such as resources and equipment provided by the public
and private sector, the system needs to have the valid source information about the relevant
key characteristics and behaviours (Nouaouri, 2017).

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The emergency simulation program (ESP) at the British Columbia Institute of Technology
(BCIT) is an example of the organization which use the simulation to train for the emergency
situations such as forest fire fighting, oil spill response, earthquake response and terrorist
attack. The system implementation “Dynamic Run-Time Clock” which allows to speeds up
and slowing down the time to run the simulated time frame (D’Uffizi et al., 2015).

This study differ from the previous studies in term of the strategies proposed and method used.
This study using Discrete Event Simulation (DES) computer-based modelling. The simulation
model were developed using ARENA simulation software. ‘What-if’ analysis been used in
order to test variety of scenarios that can help to suggest the most efficient transportation model.

Many researchers mentioned in their paper about the benefits of using simulation as an
approach or tool in their study. It can be concluded that simulation is the most suitable tool for
solving problems either dynamic or discrete. The simulation also can cut cost in making
analysis, solving problems and making the decision.

METHODOLOGY
3.1 Discrete Event Simulation
This study used Discrete Event Simulation (DES) approach where the process flow of the
humanitarian logistics was mimicked into the simulation software. In DES, there are five
components which include entities, attributes, variables, resources, and event. Kelton,
Sadowski, & Zupick (2015) mentioned that the developed simulation model is able to measure
the performance of a warehouse system which includes entities, attributes, variables, resources,
and event. The Figure 1 shows the steps of the simulation process.

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Figure 1. Simulation Modelling Process

Source: Centeno & Carrillo (2001)

The first step in simulation modelling process is problem identification. This step is done by
identifying the problems occur in the system to be studied and come out with the requirements
for the system. Next, the objectives must be established, so the researchers know what they
need and achieve the objectives of the study. Followed by collect and prepare data. Researchers
need to collect data and information on the current system and prepare the data and information
to conduct the simulation. The data will be entered into the simulation software to be run. If

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the data not meet all the objectives, it needs to be refined and should recollect and prepared
again. Otherwise, if the data available meet all the objectives, the formulating model process
will be run. After that, the validation and verification of the model need to be done. This process
is intended to ensure that the model is valid or not. If the model is not valid, the model needs
to be refined. But, if the model is valid, the process continues with experiment and model
analysis. Lastly, the recommendations and implementation of the model will be done.
The developed model were replicates 10 time to get the average waiting time of the process.
After running the simulation model, it is then validated and verified. In order to prove the
validity of the model, the behavior of the model is compared with the real system by using the
Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) test. This test can be calculated by using the
Equation
𝑀𝐴𝑃𝐸=Σ∣ Xm−Xd ∣ /Xd ×100%
The value of MAPE less than 5% indicates the model is very accurate. While the value of
MAPE greater than 5% and less than 10% shows the model is accurate and value of MAPE
more than 10% shows that the model is not accurate and should be rebuild (Djamali, 2018).

DATA ANALYSIS AND RESULT

4.1 Humanitarian Logistics Process Flow of the Organization
A case study of humanitarian logistics performed by the organization has been explored. The
model describes the journey of the team from headquarters to distribution area.

Donor and
Transit Warehouse Evacuation Centre
procurement

Distribution

Figure 2: Process flow of humanitarian logistics of the organization

Figure 2 shows the process flow of the humanitarian relief team of the organization. According
to the organization, there are 5 teams join in the relief operations. A team, modelled as an entity

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in the system, journey to the designated place of the disaster according to the process. There
are 4 main process that the team will undergo through the mission.

At the first stage, the team will gather the supplies from the suppliers and donors. Once it
finished for the first team, it begins their journey without waiting for the other because the team
want to get at the designated place as soon as possible. Upon arrival to the transit warehouse,
the team need to use a certain type of transport such as 4x4 pickup and trucks as the normal
vehicles such as bus and car does not have the access to go at the affected area. The next stage,
the team will arrive to the evacuation centre and the lastly, it begins the distribution of the
supply to victim.

4.2 The Route Used to the Affected Area

In this study, the author assumed that the team’s journey time to the destination as being shown
in the Figure 3 as it shows the duration of the team will arrived at the transit warehouse.

The organization

Figure 3: Journey from the organization to Transit Warehouse in Kota Bharu (east coast
Malaysia)

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 Figure 4: Journey from Transit Warehouse to Evacuation Centre

Figure 4 shows the main evacuation centre that the organization targeted since it has the most
victims transferred in this centre. Since the transportation is limited in order to reach the main
destination, the number of vehicles that the organization provided only 4 pickup truck and 2
trucks only. Therefore, they need to go back and forth if the resources and man supply is still
not enough in that place. According to interview from the organization, they need to travel
about 3 times in order the team fully arrived and make the distribution work more faster and
can do other work such as cleaning and cooking. However, the teams managed to complete
their task within 6 days including the journey from the organization since it only have that
amount of time to finished their work according to what have been planned.

4.3 Simulation of Actual System

Figure 5, 6 and 7 below present the simulation of actual flow of the vehicles in the system along
with the summary of the queue detail in table. The data from the previous graphic was codded
into the ARENA software. The initial data that has been insert in the system at the stage 1
(Team Arrival) is based on the minimum and maximum number of vehicles within 24 hour
which are 1 and 3 vehicles per hours respectively.

The model starts from create the process block, in which the entities are generated by “Team
Arrival”. In the sorting the resources process has been assigned with the specific amount of
time needed to complete the process after calculating the average time from the interviews.
Then, the entity will go two different path which going to the distribution centre or dispose. In

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the dispose situation, the entity will be assume cannot be utilize in a day since it has reach the
limit of operation time. So it will continue the process for the next day until it fully utilized.

Figure 5: Route 1, route 2 and route 3 model content

Figure 6: Combination of route 1&2, route 1&3 and route 2&3 model content

Figure 7: Combination of route 1,2 & 3 model content

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4.4 Model parameters
Table 1 shows the detail of parameter used in set up of the simulation model.

Base time units Hours

Replication length 96 Hours
Distance route 1 20.1 km
Distance route 2 21.0 km
Distance route 3 20.6 km
Transport time
Route 1: 50 Minutes
Route 2: 1 Hours
Route 3: 1 Hours 15 Minutes
Operating process
Sorting the resources: 1.5 Hours
Distribution process: 6 Hours
Table 1 Model parameter

4.5 Simulation Model

Simulation model consist of the routes will be taken by the entity to transfer the resources. The
first route indicate the black mark, follow by the second route which indicate the red mark, and
lastly the third route indicate the blue mark. This maps will vizualize how the entities will
undergo their process to complete the tasks.

Figure 8: Simulation vizualization

4.4 Result Interpretation

The simulation model was build in the ARENA software with the run-time of 4 days. There
are three key performance indicator used which are the capacity of waiting time in distribution
centre and sorting the resources as well as the completion of the entities through out the day.
The result of waiting time of the actual simulation model are shown in Table 2 below.

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 Route Entity complete Entity Average waiting time (hr)
the task dispose Distribution Process Sorting the resources
1 7 0 0.4783 1.4771
2 6 1 0.0000 1.0572
3 2 5 0.2572 1.3996
Table 2 Waiting time detail summary

As in Table 2 shows that there are 3 route models used to utilize their resources. It shows few
entities are dispose in route 2 and route 3, which are 1 and 5 respectively. This shows only one
transportation models which are route 1 capable to be used since it manage to complete the
transfer without disposal.

However, to choose the best transportation model also required to analyze the waiting time of
each process which included the distribution process and sorting the resources process. The
average of distribution process and sorting the resources process of route 1 are 0.4783hr and
1.4771hr. While route 2 shows the time taken for average distribution process and sorting the
resources process are 0.000 hr and 1.057 hr. Lastly, the average of distribution process and
sorting the resources process of route 3 are 0.2572 hr and 1.3996 hr respectively.

Here it can be concluded that the real model can only used one route during the emergencency,
which is route 2. This is because it is has the shortest time taken for the operating process and
has only one disposal entity.

Thus, the experimentation and analysis is done by creating scenarios to forecast other best
decisions.

4.5 Validation
Validation is the process of determination on how and to what extent a model is accurate in
representing the actual system. Validation is also concern about building the right model. It is
used to specify that the model is exactly mimicking the actual system. In order to prove the
validity of the model, it could be done by comparing the behavior of the model with the real
system by using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) test. MAPE is a relative measure
of the percentage of errors. Below is the formula for MAPE:

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 |𝑋𝑚−𝑋𝑑|
MAPE = ∑ 𝑋𝑑 × 100%
where: Xm = forecast value
Xd = actual data

|6.4−6|
MAPE = ∑ × 100%
6

= 6.67%
The forecast value which is Xm in the formula can be found in the simulation output result

while the actual data, Xd is from the collected data. For this study, the output result in the

simulation is 6.4 hours while the actual data 6 hours is. The information from the organization

about the data is 6 hours was taken for each of the operating process. After the calculation of

the validation is done, the value of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) for this research

is 6.67%. This proves that the validity of the model is accurate.

Djamali (2018) stated that when MAPE value is greater than 5% and less than 10%, it shows

that the model is accurate and valid. If MAPE value is more than 10%, it indicates that the

model is not accurate and not suitable to be used for the study. Therefore, the model should be

rebuilt.

Verification is the process to determine that the implementation of the model and related data

are accurate represents the developer’s conceptual description and specifications. It also can be

define as the process of determining that this model is exactly as was designed for. It is to

ensuring that the computer program of the computerized model and its execution is correct. It

is concerned with building a model correctly. Once a simulation model has been programmed,

the developer need to check if the computer code contains programming errors.

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4.6 What if analysis
Two scenarios was created in order to identify the changes of decision whether the other
transportation model can be use when:

Scenario 1: Adding alternatives route by combining the existed route. In this case, the
developer create 3 new route which is route 1&2, route 1&3, route 2&3 and route 1,2,&3

The results from simulation software shows there are differences in the average waiting time
for the whole model after adding new routes. The results are shown in Table 3 below;

Table 3 Result of Scenario 1

Route Entity complete Entity Average waiting time (hr)

the task dispose Distribution Process Sorting the resources
1 7 0 0.4783 4.4771
2 6 1 0.0000 1.0572
3 2 5 0.2572 1.3996
1&2 7 0 0.3911 1.5586
1&3 5 2 0.6406 1.4475
2&3 4 3 0.0898 0.9989
1, 2 & 3 7 0 0.3210 1.5586

As can be seen, adding three new routes into the real model gives positive changes in the
average waiting time on the operating process. In terms of resources utilization, only route 1,
route 1&2 and route 1,2,&3 show no entity were dispose, means the utilization of the resources
are perfomed well. While route 2&3 shows the poor utilization resources.

In terms of waiting time, the alternatives route which is route 2&3 shows the shortest time
taken for both distribution process and sorting the resources which are 0.0898 hr and 0.9989
hr respectively. Followed by route 1&2 which are 0.3911 hr and 1.5586 hr.

It can be concluded that route 1&2 would be the best route to be used during emergency. This
is because it has the best results in both terms, resources utilization and average waiting time
for operating process.

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Scenario 2: Increase number of entity which are vehicles increased. In the previous analysis,
the number of entity used are 7, while in this scenario 10 entities are used which represent the
number of vehicles. The result has been conclude in the Table 4 below.

Table 4 Result for scenario 2

Route Entity complete Entity Average waiting time (hr)

the task dispose Distribution Process Sorting the resources
1 10 0 0.4257 1.6157
2 7 3 0.0000 4.0257
3 4 6 0.3564 0.4996
1&2 10 0 0.3102 1.1256
1&3 5 5 0.7406 0.3475
2&3 6 4 0.0998 1.0989
1, 2 & 3 10 0 0.5911 3.5586

From the result, it shows the capabalities of each route to utilize the resources since the
entity was added from 7 to 10 vehicles. There are only three routes that fully utilize the
resources which are route 1, route 1&2, and route 1,2 &3. By comparing the average waiting
time for these three routes, route 1&2 has the shortest average waiting time for both distrbution
process and sorting the resources.

Hence, it can be said that route 1&2 is the best transportation model which the number
of entities is fully utilize within 4 days and has the lowest number of distribution process and
sorting the resources which are 0.3102 hr and 3.1256 hr respectively. Other than that, the result
also shows that the entity able to complete all the task without any dispose.

5.0 Conclusion
This paper is about the transportation model of humanitarian logistics. Nowadays the
demand for humanitarian logistics increase by time to time when the natural disaster or man-
made disaster occurs. The challenge face by the organization is to deliver the resources as fast
as they can.

The purpose of the study is to proposed the best transportation model for the company
to execute their operation in an effective way. The input data for the simulation was provided

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through interviews with the member of the organization and the data were input into ARENA
simulation software to perform and analyse the best transporation model. In this study, there
are some limitation where the information on the condition of the roads and current situation
of the disaster were not provided.

To propose the best transportation model, the experimental study and the support of
what if analysis has been introduced which shown the combination of route 1 & 2 is the best
transportation model. However, this model has it own limitation which the number of resources
such as food and clothes is not ben considered as well as the current situation of the disaster.
Therefore, as a future work, more enhancement is needed to be performed on this study where
the resources utilization should be taken into consideration as well as the current situation of
the disaster that might be change from time to time. Besides, more units should be introduced
and simulated in the future proposed model.

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6.0 References
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logistics for disaster relief operations. Procedia CIRP, 33, 157–162.
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Daud, S. M. M., Hussein, M., Nasir, M., Abdullah, R., Kassim, R., Suliman, M., & Saludin,
M. R. (2016). Humanitarian Logistics and Its Challenges: The Literature Review. Int. J
Sup. Chain. Mgt, 5(3), 107–110.

Day, J. M., Melnyk, S. A., Larson, P. D., Davis, E. W., & Whybark, D. C. (2012).
Humanitarian and disaster relief supply chains: A matter of life and death. Journal of
Supply Chain Management, 48(2), 21–36. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1745-
493X.2012.03267.x

Díaz-Delgado, C., & Gaytán Iniestra, J. (2014). Flood risk assessment in humanitarian
logistics process design. Journal of Applied Research and Technology, 12(5), 976–984.
https://doi.org/10.1016/S1665-6423(14)70604-2

Hamedi, M., Haghani, A., & Yang, S. (2012). Reliable Transportation of Humanitarian
Supplies in Disaster Response: Model and Heuristic. Procedia - Social and Behavioral
Sciences, 54, 1205–1219. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2012.09.835

Liu, P., & Yi, S. ping. (2018). A study on supply chain investment decision-making and
coordination in the Big Data environment. Annals of Operations Research, 270(1–2),
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Nouaouri, I. (2017). A Simulation Study of Emergency Logistic in Case of Disaster, II, 4–9.

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