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Energy Procedia
Energy Procedia 00
00 (2017)
(2017) 000–000
000–000

ScienceDirect
ScienceDirect
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www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia

Energy
EnergyProcedia 142
Procedia 00(2017)
(2017)2677–2682
000–000
www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia

9th International Conference on Applied Energy, ICAE2017, 21-24 August 2017, Cardiff, UK

Impacts of climate change on the cooling loads of residential

The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling
buildings differences between occupants with different age
Assessing
a the feasibility
a aof using the a heat demand-outdoor
Yu Wanga, Haiyang Lina, Wei Wanga, Yiling Liu a, Ronald Wennerstena, Qie Suna*
a a

temperature function
Institute
Institute of
for Science
of Thermal
a long-term
Thermal Science
a
a and
and Technology,
district
Technology, Shandong
heat
Shandong University,
demand forecast
University, China
China

I. Andrića,b,c*, A. Pinaa, P. Ferrãoa, J. Fournierb., B. Lacarrièrec, O. Le Correc

Abstract
Abstract
a
IN+ Center for Innovation, Technology and Policy Research - Instituto Superior Técnico, Av. Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal
Climate Change
Climate Change is is known
known to tobVeolia
have aaRecherche
have great impact
great & Innovation,
impact on the
on 291 Avenue
the energy
energy Dreyfousin
consumption
consumption inDaniel, 78520This
buildings.
buildings. Limay,
This France
paper
paper studied the
studied the cooling
cooling load
load of
of aa
c
residential Département
building in Systèmes
Jinan, China, Énergétiques
in 2020, et Environnement
2050, 2080 by - IMT Atlantique,
considering the impacts4 rue
of Alfred
climateKastler,
change 44300
on Nantes, Franceparameters
residential building in Jinan, China, in 2020, 2050, 2080 by considering the impacts of climate change on the
the influential
influential parameters
for
for cooling
cooling loads.
loads. TheThe Hadley
Hadley Centre
Centre Coupled
Coupled Model
Model 3(HadCM3)
3(HadCM3) was was employed
employed to to investigate
investigate thethe impact
impact of of climate
climate change
change on
on
the outdoor
the outdoor temperature,
temperature, solarsolar radiation
radiation and and wind
wind speed.
speed. In In addition,
addition, this
this study
study also
also differentiated
differentiated the the cooling
cooling loads
loads according
according to to
occupants’ age,
occupants’ age, since
since the
the energy
energy usage
usage patterns
patterns and
and the
the requirements
requirements on on cooling
cooling loads
loads areare closely
closely related
related to to occupants’
occupants’ age.
age. The
The
Abstract
results
results suggest
suggest that
that climate
climate change
change will
will create
create significant
significant impacts
impacts on on the
the cooling
cooling loads
loads inin residential
residential buildings.
buildings. Regarding
Regarding occupants’
occupants’
age,
age, the
the impact
impact on
on the
the occupants
occupants under
under 55-year-old
55-year-old is
is larger
larger than
than the
the people
people older
older than
than 55.
55.
District heating networks are commonly addressed in the literature as one of the most effective solutions for decreasing the
© 2017
© 2017 The
The Authors.
Authors. Published
Published by by Elsevier
Elsevier Ltd.
Ltd.
©greenhouse
2017 The gas emissions
Authors. frombythe
Published building sector. These systems require high investments which are returned through the heat
Peer-review
Peer-review under responsibility
under responsibility ofElsevier
of the
Ltd.
the scientific
scientific committee of
committee of the
the 9th
9th International
International Conference
Conference on on Applied
Applied Energy.
Energy.
Peer-review
sales. Due under
to theresponsibility
changed climate of theconditions
scientific committee
and building of the 9th International
renovation policies,Conference
heat demand on Applied
in the Energy.
future could decrease,
prolonging
Keywords: the investment
Climate return period.
change; Residential
Residential buildings; Cooling
Keywords: Climate change; buildings; Cooling load;
load; Occupants’
Occupants’ age;age;
The main scope of this paper is to assess the feasibility of using the heat demand – outdoor temperature function for heat demand
forecast. The district of Alvalade, located in Lisbon (Portugal), was used as a case study. The district is consisted of 665
buildings that vary in both construction period and typology. Three weather scenarios (low, medium, high) and three district
1. Introduction
1. Introduction
renovation scenarios were developed (shallow, intermediate, deep). To estimate the error, obtained heat demand values were
compared with results from a dynamic heat demand model, previously developed and validated by the authors.
TheClimate
Climate change
change that
results showed and
andwhenglobal
onlywarming
global warming can
can create
weather change create enormous
enormous
is considered, the impacts
margin ofon
impacts on human
could living
human
error living environment
for someand
environment
be acceptable and energy
energy
applications
consumption,
consumption,
(the error in annualespecially
especially
demandthethe heating
washeating
lower than and
and20%cooling
cooling load
for allload
weatherin buildings
in scenarios [1].
buildingsconsidered). Since the
[1]. SinceHowever, worldwide
the worldwide building energy
buildingrenovation
after introducing energy
consumption
scenarios, the contributes
consumption contributes around
around 40%
error value increased up toof
40% global
of59.5%
global total
total carbon
(depending carbon
on the emissions
emissions
weather and [2], it is
is important
[2],renovation
it important
scenariosto analyze
to analyze the impacts
the
combination impacts of
of
considered).
climate
The value
climate change
of slope
change on energy consumption
coefficient
on energy increased in
consumption in buildings.
onbuildings.
average withinTo this
To this aim,
theaim,
rangea climate model
of 3.8%model
a climate is
up to is8% essential
per decade,
essential to forecast future
that corresponds
to forecast weather
to the
future weather
conditions.
conditions. One
decrease in One of the
the number
of the most
most commonly
of heating
commonly used
hours ofused climate
22-139h
climate model
during
model is the
the global
the heating
is global calculation
seasoncalculation models
(depending models (GCM), which
on the combination
(GCM), which contains
of weather and
contains
atmospheric
atmospheric sub-models,
renovation scenarios
sub-models, ocean On
considered).
ocean sub-models and land
the other hand,
sub-models and land
functionsurface scheme.
intercept
surface It is
increased
scheme. It isforcapable
capable
7.8-12.7% of per
of predicting future climatic
decade (depending
predicting future climatic
on the
coupled scenarios).
conditions
conditions for further
for further The values suggested
evaluating
evaluating the changes
the couldin
changes inbeenergy
used toconsumptions
energy modify the function
consumptions parameters
in buildings
in buildings 4]for the scenarios considered, and
[3, 4]
[3,
improve the accuracy of heat demand estimations.

© 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and
** Qie
Qie Sun.
Sun. Tel.:
Cooling. Tel.: +86-531-88399000-2306.
+86-531-88399000-2306.
E-mail address:
E-mail address: qie@sdu.cn
qie@sdu.cn
Keywords: Heat demand; Forecast; Climate change
1876-6102 ©
1876-6102 © 2017
2017 The
The Authors.
Authors. Published
Published by
by Elsevier
Elsevier Ltd.
Ltd.
Peer-review
Peer-review under
under responsibility
responsibility of
of the
the scientific
scientific committee
committee of
of the
the 9th
9th International
International Conference
Conference on
on Applied
Applied Energy.
Energy.

1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling.
1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 9th International Conference on Applied Energy.
10.1016/j.egypro.2017.12.210
2 Wang Yu / Energy Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000

2678 Yu Wang et al. / Energy Procedia 142 (2017) 2677–2682

Fig. 1. Overview of the simulation required data

Apart from forecasting future weather conditions, many studies tried to address this issue by establishing physical
model and improving the materials and structures of buildings, while the occupants’ behavior was often ignored [1, 5,
6]. However, occupants’ requirements on indoor comfort and their energy consumption patterns have great influence
on the energy consumption in buildings [7, 8]. This is highly significant in summer in cold climate zone of China,
because most urban households here adopt individual air-conditioners to meet their own cooling needs, while district
cooling systems have not be prevail. According to Hu et al. [9], 91% of the urban households would turn off their
cooling devices when they are not necessary and only 1% would keep the air-conditioners on during the whole summer.
Thus, this will result in great differences in cooling loads between different users [10, 11].
Many factors affect households’ needs for cooling in summer and occupants’ age and income have been identified
as the two most important factors [9, 12]. According to Chen et al. [13], occupants’ age is more significantly related
to the operation patterns of air-conditioners than income. Old occupants tend to use air-conditioners for fewer hours
and set the operation temperature higher young people.
However, there have been very few studies looking into the impacts of climate change on the cooling loads of
residential buildings by specifying the differences between the occupants with different age. Therefore, this paper aims
to evaluate the impacts of climate change on occupants’ cooling needs and associated changes in energy consumption.
To achieve this aim, the study selected the city of Jinan as the study location, which is located in the cold climate zone
of China. The Hadley Centre Coupled Model 3 (HadCM3), a kind of GCM, was employed to simulate the future
climate conditions and EnergyPlus was used to model the cooling energy consumption in the residential building as
regards different occupants’ energy consumption patterns according to their ages.

2. Methodology

Therefore, this study employed GCM to construct available and reliable weather data of the future climate.
Moreover, this study used weather files from EnergyPlus weather database as current weather data, which is derived
from the Typical Meteorological Year 3 (TMY3) weather format [14]. Compared to single year data, TMY3, based
on improved solar models, using more comprehensive method to produce a synthetic year to represent sorts of
variables, matches better the long-term average climatic conditions [15].
In this study, there are two major input files: (a) TMY3 weather file and (b) a low-rise residential building model
with three designed occupant operation schedules. Fig. 1 shows a diagram of workflow and interrelation of those input
files.

2.1. Climate conditions and weather files

This study used TMY3 weather file come from official website of EnergyPlus [16] and used Climate Change
World Weather File Generator (CCWorldWeatherGen) tool to produce future climate weather files.
 Yu Wang et al. / Energy Procedia 142 (2017) 2677–2682 2679

Wang Yu/ Energy Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000 3

Fig. 2. 3D rendering of building model used in EnergyPlus

CCWorldWeatherGen employs HadCM3 climate model to project future climate change by using HadCM3. A2
experiment ensemble as input files which comes from intergovernmental panel on climate’s third assessment report
model summary data. And A2 scenario represents medium emission.
The output files are weather files of 2020,2050,2080 including variables which have impact on building cooling
energy such as dry bulb temperature, ground temperature, solar radiation, wind speed and direction and relative
humidity etc.

2.2. Residential building model

Although the energy consumption in buildings is related to its design and construction materials, this study selected
a typical low-rise residential building, since the research focus is on the impacts of climate conditions on the cooling
needs of the occupants with different age, rather than on the design or construction materials of buildings. It is assumed
that the envelope designs of the building conform with the standard JGJ 26-2010 [17], which is the building envelope
code applicable to Jinan.
The building model is a 30 m × 22 m, 3.5 m floor-to-floor height and three-story high residential building. The
window-to-wall ratio is 22%. Total floor area of this building is 1980 m2 (1800 m2 air-conditioned and 180 m2 non-
air-conditioned). The building is divided into 21 thermal zones, i.e. 7 zones on each floor including six in both sides
and one in the middle. Fig. 2 is the sketch of the building and Table 1 shows the key parameters of the building.

Table 1. Summary of key design parameters

Parameters Value(W/m2K)
U-value of exterior wall (W/m2K) 0.36
U-value of interior wall (W/m2K) 1.3
U-value of window (W/m K) 2
1.7
U-value of exterior floor (W/m2K) 1.2
U-value of roof (W/m K)
2
0.34
Internal gain of occupancy (person/ m2) 0.02
Internal gain of lighting (W/ m )
2
8
Internal gain of equipment (W/ m2) 5

2.3. Three energy modeling cases

According to Xie et al. [12], residential building occupants usually stay at home for 12 hours a day and they use
air conditioner 10.7 hours on average in summer. Occupants of different age groups have different air condition
operation patterns. According to Chen et al. [13], people over 55-year-old on average would set the operation
temperature of the air conditioners at 28 °C and use them for about 7 hours a day in summer, while people below 55-
year-old would set the operation temperature at 26 °C and use them for 10 hours a day. In addition, younger occupants
2680 Yu Wang et al. / Energy Procedia 142 (2017) 2677–2682
4 Wang Yu / Energy Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000

have a higher tendency to use air conditioners when they are sleeping. This study designs different air conditioner
usage schedules between weekday and weekend but the amount of total cooling hours is according to Chen’s survey.
Therefore, this study designed three modeling cases, detailed parameters can be found in Table 2.

Table 2. Parameters of three modeling cases

Cooling period Cooling time (h) Cooling set-point
Monday to Sunday and holidays Monday to Sunday and temperature (℃)
Saturday Saturday holidays
Case 1 0:00 – 24:00 0:00 – 24:00 24 24 26
Case 2 17:00 – 23:00 13:00 - 23:00(next day) 6 10 28
Case 3 17:00 – 2:00(next 13:00 - 2:00(next day) 9 13 26
day)
Case 1 represents the total cooling load with air condition 24-hour on in the cooling season. Case 2 and case 3
respectively represent the air condition operation pattern of elderly occupants above 55 and younger occupants below
55.

3. Results and discussion

This study conducted energy simulations using EnergyPlus with a 15-minute time step for the whole year. For each
case, simulations were conducted under weather data of three climate slices: 2020, 2050, 2080. The variation of annual
building cooling energy along with the climate change was analyzed and the annual cooling energy consumption of
different age group occupants were compared.

3.1. Monthly cooling energy consumption variation under the impacts of climate change

Fig. 3 (a) shows the comparison of monthly dry-bulb temperature (DBT) in 2020, 2050, 2080. It is clear that the
monthly DBT in 2050 and 2080 have a general ascending trend compared to 2020 especially in the hottest season,
which indicates a longer cooling season in the future. For 2080, the mean DBT increases 4.3 °C in August, 3.8 °C in
July and 3.6 °C in September than 2020 while other months shows a merely 3 °C increase, which indicates higher
cooling demand in the cooling season.
Fig. 3 (b) shows a comparison of monthly cooling energy in 2020, 2050, 2080 for case 1. It can be found that the
cooling energy in 2050, and 2080 are obvious high than 2020, and especially in July. It would be, respectively, 31.0%
and 74.7% more than the 2020 average cooling energy.
35 100000
Mothly dry-bulb Temperature

Monthly cooling energy (kWh)

30
80000
25
20 60000
15 40000
(℃)

10
20000
5
0 0

(a) (b) 2020 2050 2080

Fig. 3. (a) Monthly average temperature in 2020, 2050 and 2080. (b) Monthly cooling energy in 2020, 2050, 2080 for case 1.
 Yu Wang et al. / Energy Procedia 142 (2017) 2677–2682 2681
Wang Yu/ Energy Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000 5

3.2. Monthly cooling energy consumption of different age groups

To find out the influence of occupants’ age on cooling energy, a series of comparisons between above 55-year-old
and below 55-year-old age group were conducted under three climate scenarios. A summary of the comparisons is
shown in Fig. 4. The overall monthly cooling energy of above 55-year-old age group is lower than below 55-year-old
age group due to the different cooling device using patterns. And it worth pointing out that the cooling energy in hot
summer for younger people is particularly higher than elderly people. For instance, for 2020, cooing energy of younger
people in July is 8646 kWh higher than elderly people while in May it is 4295 kWh. In addition, as the climate
changing, the cooling energy in August reach nearly parity with July which means high-cooling-load season would
become longer in the future.
Along with the climate change, cooling load of both age groups may show not only an increasing tendency in total
amount but also a concentration phenomenon in hot summer which indicates extremely huge cooling load in hot
summer which may cause enormous pressure to the grid. However, younger people shows a more obvious tendency.
35000
Cooling energy (kWh)

30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0

(a) Monthly cooling energy in 2020

40000
35000
Cooling energy (kWh)

30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0

(b) Monthly cooling energy in 2050

50000
Cooling energy (kWh)

40000
30000
20000
10000 age≥55
0 age＜55

(c) Monthly cooling energy in 2080

Fig. 4. Impacts of occupants’ age on monthly cooling energy in 2020, 2050, 2080.
2682 Yu Wang et al. / Energy Procedia 142 (2017) 2677–2682
6 Wang Yu / Energy Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000

4. Conclusion

This paper conducted a series of simulations to evaluate the impacts of climate change on cooling energy of
residential building under three climate scenarios. The results showed that residential building cooling energy is
sensitive to climate change, i.e. the total annual cooling energy in 2050, and 2080 would increase respectively 30.7%
and 80.3% more than the 2020. Age is an important parameter, accounting for 8646 kWh increase of cooling energy.
Younger people (age below 55) tend to use more energy for cooling in hot season than elderly people (age above 55).
And cooling load of both age groups may show an increasing tendency in total amount and also a concentration
phenomenon in hot summer along with the climate change while younger people show a more obvious tendency.

Acknowledgements

This work was supported in part by Project ZR2014EEM025 supported by Natural Science Foundation of
Shandong Province, China; and the 973 Program 2013CB228305, China.

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