Association for Library and Information Science Education (ALISE)

Teaching Descriptive and Inferential Statistics in Library Schools

Author(s): Ronald E. Wyllys
Source: Journal of Education for Librarianship, Vol. 19, No. 1 (Summer, 1978), pp. 3-20
Published by: Association for Library and Information Science Education (ALISE)
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/40368591
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 Teaching Descriptiveand
Inferential Statistics in
LibrarySchools
RONALD E. WYLLYS

The goals of thepaper are: ( 1) to suggestthatlibraryand informationsciencealready

depend heavilyon statisticaltechniques;(2) to presentexamples of the need forgreater
knowledgeof statistics, especiallyinferentialstatistics,
among librariansand informa-
tion scientists;and (3) to argue that libraryschool studentscan be taughtinferential
statistics.In supportof (1) and (2) a studyof the 1,157 articlespublished in 1975 in 36
libraryand informationsciencejournals showed that about 45 per cent of the articles
made some use of statistics and thatabout 3 per centof the articles,concentratedin the
leadingjournals, used inferentialstatistics.Not onlydoes the latterpercentageindicate
thatauthorsmissed opportunitiesto make more penetratinganalyses of many sets of
data, but also it is related to mistakesin the conclusionsthatsome authors draw from
theirdescriptively analyzeddata. In supportof (3), a descriptionis givenof the research
methodscourse at the author'sinstitution, in whichstudentslearn inferentialstatistics
withcomputerassistance.

SHOULD LIBRARY SCHOOLS offer courses in quantitative

methods and other methods of research? How extensive should the
treatmentof statisticsin such courses be? The object of thispaper is to
argue that to the firstquestion the answer should be, "Yes," and to the
second, "Not only descriptivebut also inferentialstatisticsshould be
taught."
Numerous articlesin recent years have dealt with the importanceof
gatheringand reportingstatistics on variousaspectsof libraries,as wellas
withthe need to improvethe accuracyof such statistics.The 1970 book1

Wyllysis Associate Professor,Universityof Texas Graduate School of LibraryScience,

Austin,TX 78712.

3
JOURNALOF EDUCATION FOR LIBRARIANSHIP

edited by D. C. Palmer furnishesan excellentintroductionto theseprob-

lems, and a paper2 by T. A. Childers in 1975 summarizeslater work.
Other recent papers by M.E. Anders,3R. W. Burns,4and M. A. Drake5
have treated particularuses of librarystatistics.
Two especiallyfrankarticles,by S. Leech6 and W. H. Williams,7spell
out the importance of librarystatisticsfor a highlypractical purpose:
justifyingthe library'sexistence. Williamssums up the matterwiththe
words, "the financialsuccess of any library,which ultimatelyis the true
testof services,resultslargelyfromyourabilityto prove statistically your
worthto the community"thatuses, or could use, the library.
The emphasis in most of the worksjust cited is on the collectingof
librarystatisticsand on theproblemsinvolvedin doing so. It is to be hoped
thatthe eventual success of such effortsas the LIBGIS (LibraryGeneral
InformationSurvey) project8 will lessen the need, in the libraryand
informationscience literatureof the future,for papers preaching the
importance of collectingsuch statistics.It is time for the professionto
place more emphasis on utilizingthe statisticsit collects.
In her paper Leech treats,succinctlyand wittily, reasons fornotmerely
collecting but also analyzing library She
statistics. points out that in ex-
tracting useful information from such statisticslibrarians are "limited
onlyby [the] time and imagination"theybring to bear on the task."You
will have informationthat can help you tell your own departmental
personnel whethertheyare up to snuff,you can help themplan waysin
which they might improve their performance,[and] you can analyze
departmentdeficienciesin work flow. . . ."9
In a similar vein, Anders writes: "Generally,as Purdy observed, li-
brarianshave 'been slow to exploitmeasurementas a professionaltool.'10
The available evidence suggests that librariansuse statisticaldata less
oftenin cooperativeplanning - and even in administrativeplanning-
thando personnelof othereducational and serviceagencies. . . .Use of
statisticalmeasures by librariansin program planning appears to have
occurred infrequently."11
To analyze librarystatisticsthoroughlyrequiresa deeper understand-
ing of modern statisticsthan is provided by manylibraryschool courses,
especiallyat the master'slevel. In order to extractthe maximumpossible
amount of informationfrom a set of figures- and in order to avoid
-
drawing superficiallyplausible but actuallyunwarrantedconclusions
the professional librarian needs to know somethingabout inferential
statisticsas well as descriptivestatistics.
The widespread notionthatonlydescriptivestatistics (at most)needs to
be taughtto librariansis,unfortunately, all too clearlyrevealedin a recent
paper12byJ. M. Brittain.Althoughhe argues well the case forteaching
quantitativemethods in libraryschools,he dismissesinferentialstatistics
4
 and Inferential
TeachingDescriptive Statistics
in LibrarySchools
withthecomment thata recenttext,13 whichdiscussesthisarea,"provides
too muchdetailaboutstatistical techniques, manyofwhichhavelimited
applicabilityto libraryand information problems."
The purposesofthepresentpaperare: (1) to suggestthatlibrary and
information scienceare alreadymuchmoredependenton the use of
statistical
techniques thanmanylibrarians andlibrary educatorsappearto
be aware;(2) topresentexamplesoftheneed fora betterunderstanding
ofstatistics,
especially inferential amonglibrarians
statistics, and informa-
tionscientists;and (3) toofferevidenceofwhatcanbe doneinproviding
libraryschoolstudentswitha moreextensiveintroduction to statistics
thanis generallygiventhem.
Whatare "descriptive" and "inferential" statistics?The methodsof
descriptivestatistics servethepurposeofdescribing measurablecharac-
ofsomesetofentities
teristics (e.g.,people,libraries, circulation figures,
periodicalprices).Amongthecharacteristics frequently usedarethetotal,
countsand percentagesin subsets,the median,the arithmeticand
geometricmeans,the range,and the standarddeviation:e.g., median
numberofbookswriitenbyindividualauthors,(arithmetic) meandaily
numberofjournalscirculated, geometric mean annual increase inthesize
ofa collection, range of the number of reference inquiries day,and
in a
standarddeviationofthenumberofpatronsusingthecardcatalogatthe
sametime.The techniquesof descriptive statisticsincludedetermining
numerical valuesforsuchcharacteristics, summarizing them,anddisplay-
ingthemin tables,graphs,charts,etc.
The methodsof inferential statisticscenteraround the processof
a
examining sample ofdata about some set ofentities ofinterest - sucha
setiscalleda "population" - and,through useoftheevidenceavailablein
thesample,makingan inference aboutsomecharacteristic ofthepopula-
tion.The goalsare to makecorrectinferences, to avoidincorrect infer-
ences,and to have a clearidea ofjust how likelyit is thata particular
inferenceis correct.The usual path to thisgoal is to make explicita
statement, called a "statistical hypothesis," concerningthe population
characteristicand thento applya statistical techniqueto theevidencein
the samplein orderto reacha decisioneitherto acceptor rejectthe
hypothesis.
A particular virtueofinferential is thatitcallsattention
statistics tothe
factthatmanyphenomenaare by naturevariable,and thatobserved
differences mayoftenbe due tonothingmorethanchance.Forinstance,
ifone knowsthatthedailycirculation of a libraryfluctuates easilyand
frequently from as low as 50 to as as
high 300, one is unlikely to assume
thatthedifference betweena meandailycirculation of 100lastweekand
101 thisweekreallyportendsan upsurgein circulation. In lessobvious
circumstances, however,people have been knownto interpret equally
5
JOURNALOF EDUCATION FOR LIBRARIANSHIP

meaninglessdifferencesas important.
Inferentialstatisticsfurnishestools by which to decide whether an
observeddifferenceis "significant," in a stricttechnicalsense: viz.,thatthe
differenceis very unlikelyto be due to chance. A differencethat is
statisticallysignificantmayor maynotbe of practicalimportance.On the
otherhand, a differencemayseem,to theuninitiated,large enough to be
importantand yetbe, in fact,non-significant because itcould easilyhave
been due to mere chance.
A fundamental practice in inferential statisticsis to formulate a
hypothesis- oftencalled a "null" hypothesis- thatamountsto saying,
"The observed phenomenon can reasonablybe attributedto chance, i.e.,
is not significant,"and then to examine the data in order to decide
whetherthishypothesiscan be rejected.Oftentheinvestigatorhopes tobe
able to rejectthe null hypothesisbecause he or she favorsan explanation
other than chance for the phenomenon.
The firstpurpose of thispaper is to indicatethatlibraryand informa-
tionscience already make considerableuse of statisticaltechniques,both
in researchand in practice.Of special interestis thecurrentlevelof use of
the techniquesof inferentialstatistics.From an on-goingstudyof trends
in theuse of statistics
in libraryand informationscience,data are available
on the use of statisticsin articlesinjournals in these fieldsduring 1975.
Before thedata are presented,some definitionsare necessary.Journals
oftencontain not onlyarticlesbut also editorials,news items,obituaries,
etc. In thisstudythebasiccriteriafordecidingwhatwas an articlewere( 1)
identificationas an articleby the editor in the table of contentsor (2)
presence of an author'sname along withthe titlein the tableof contents.
Regular columns(i.e., regularlyappearing features)were not takento be
articles; neitherwere editorials,news stories,and lettersto the editor.
Doubtfulitemswere counted as articlesiftheyhad at least one reference.
Inevitably,some decisionshad to be made ratherarbitrarily, butat leastall
such decisionswere made byjust one person,and the author made them
before examining an item to see whetherit contained statisticsor not.
An articlewas counted as using statistics ( 1) ifit mentionedquantitative
data for the purpose of comparison (e.g., of one institutionagainst
another,one situationagainstanother,or one timeagainstanother),or (2)
if the quantitativedata served to distinguishan institutionor situation
from others of the same general type - as in "LibraryA has 500,000
titles"(viz., not 5,000,000 or 5,000) - provided thatthe distinctionwas
essentialto the main themeof the article.Articlesthatincidentallymen-
tioned quantitativedata forbackgroundinformationwere not counted.
For example, the sentence,"At the beginningof 1974 therewere forty-
eightEDCs [European DocumentationCentres]in the United Kingdom,
mostlylocated withinuniversityor polytechniclibraries,"14appeared in
6
 and Inferential
TeachingDescriptive Statistics
in LibrarySchools
an articlewhich,despiteitscontaining a wealthof information, was not
countedas.usingstatistics. Finally,vaguestatements suchas "about50 per
cent"or "over40,000readers"werenottreatedas uses of statistics.
For the purposesof thisstudy,an articlewas deemed to have used
inferential - as distinguished fromdescriptive - statistics
ifitemployed
suchtechniquesas: analysisof variance;chi-squaretestof association;
chi-squaretestof goodness-of-fit; confidenceintervalsforpopulation
parameters; F-testforthecomparison ofvariances;t-test ofthedifference
of means;or comparabletechniques,eitherparametric(i.e., based on
properties ofthenormal,or Gaussian,distribution) or non-parametric.15
Withperhapsa slightstretch ofthedefinition, an articlethatusedcorrela-
tionor regression wascountedas an instanceofinferential statistics
even
iftheauthorfailedto stateexplicitly a hypothesis aboutthepopulation
correlation coefficient.This does notmean,however,thatarticlescon-
tainingloosestatements aboutthe"correlation" oftwophenomenawere
counted.Foran articletobe includedintheinferential statistics
category,
theauthorhad to showclearlythathe or shewasreferring toa standard
correlation coefficient(e.g.,Pearson,Kendall,Spearman),notmerelya
subjectivelyjudged tendencytowardsimilarbehavior.
In thestudyallarticlesappearingin 1975in 36journalsinthefieldsof
library and information sciencewereexamined.Thesejournalswereall
thenationaland international scholarlyjournalsin thefieldsof library
and information sciencethat(1) were availablein the libraryof the
University ofTexas atAustinand (2) wereinEnglishorFrench.Regional
American journals(e.g.,statelibrary associationjournals)andjournalsin
otherlanguageswereexcluded.
Thejournalsexaminedconstitute nearlyall ofthepopulationofschol-
arlyjournals in Englishin libraryand information science,plus two
journalsinFrench.One ofthejournals,Scientific andTechnical Information
Processing, consistsof translationsof "selectedmajor articles"from
Nauchno-Tekhnicheshaya Informatsiya,Seriya1, and thusrepresents someof
theliterature inRussian.It seemsfairtoconsiderthejournalsinthestudy
as constitutinga substantialportionofall thescholarly journalliterature
inlibrary andinformation sciencefor1975,anda verysubstantial portion
oftheEnglish-language subsetofthatliterature. The year1975wasused
becauseit was the mostrecentyearforwhich,owingto delaysin the
bindery, thejournalliterature was conveniently accessible.
The basicdatafromthestudyappearin Table 1. The totalnumberof
articlesexaminedwas 1,157,ofwhich522,or 45.1 percentmadeat least
one use ofstatisticsthatwasconsideredworthcountingaccordingtothe
criteriaexplained earlier.Every journalthatwasexaminedturnedoutto
haveat leastone articlewithstatistics. Some34, or 2.9 percentofall the
articles,made at leastone count-worthy use of inferential an
statistics,
7
JOURNAL OF EDUCATION FOR LIBRARIANSHIP

over-allaverageof nearlyone sucharticleperjournal.These 34 consti-

tuted6.5 per centof thearticlesthatused statistics.

table I. Journalsand Numbersof ArticlesUsing Descriptive

and
Statistics
Inferential in 1975
Number of
Total Number of articles
number of articles using
articles using inferential
Journal in 1975 statistics statistics
AslibProceedings 50 12 1
AustralianLibraryJournal 67 27 1
BulletindesBibliothèques
de
France 26 18 - *
BulletinoftheMedicalLibrary
Association 47 30 1
Canadian LibraryJournal 48 16 -

Collegeand ResearchLibraries 44 23 4
Documentation etBibliothèques 25 10 -
DrexelLibraryQuarterly 30 6 -
I FLA Journal 12 2 -
InformationProcessingand
Management 23 12 1

International
Forumon Information
and Documentation 5 1 -
International
LibraryReview 54 36 -
JournalofAcademicLibrarianship 20 8 -
Journalof theAmericanSociety
Science
for Information 45 26 8
JournalofDocumentation 22 16 2

JournalofEducationfor
Librarianship 18 8 1
JournalofLibrarianship 21 13 4
JournalofLibraryAutomation 14 11 -
JournalofLibraryHistory 24 8 -
Law LibraryJournal 24 11 -

LibraryAssociation
Record 60 21 -
LibraryHistory 3 1 -
LibraryJournal 53 20 -
LibraryQuarterly 23 12 3
LibraryResourcesand Technical
Services 32 13 1

LibraryTrends 55 36 -
Libri 27 14 1
MicroformReview 10 6 -

8
 and Inferential
TeachingDescriptive in LibrarySchools
Statistics
Researchin Librarianship} 4 4 1
RQ 26 7 -

SchoolMedia Quarterly 22 7 3
and TechnicalInformation
Scientific
Processing 48 23 1
SLJ¡SchoolLibraryJournal 32 3 -
SpecialLibraries 67 30 1
UnescoBulletinfor Libraries 34 18 -
WilsonLibraryBulletin 42 13 -
Totals 1,157 522 34
*Forease ofreading,"0" is replacedby"- ".
tOnlyissues28 and 29 wereavailableforthestudy.

In Table 2 thejournalsare arrangedin orderofpercentageofarticles

makingatleastone use ofstatistics. Thatthetop-ranked journal,Research
inLibrarianship, appearsto be an outliermaybe due to thefactthatonly
two issueswere availablefor the study,containingonly fourarticles
altogether.Ofthe36journalsstudied,15,or41.7 percent,werefoundto
have count-worthy uses of statisticsin over halfof theirarticles.The
smallestpercentage ofstatistical
articlesin anyjournalwas9.4 percent.
Almosthalfof thejournalscontainedat least one articlethatused
inferential statistics.
Table 3 presentsthe 16journalsthatdid so. The
arrangement isinorderofpercentage ofinferential
statistics
articles
with
respecttothesetofarticles usingeitherdescriptiveorinferential
statistics.
(ThattheSchoolMediaQuarterly ranksfirstin thepercentageofstatistical
articlesthatused inferential statistics
perhapsstemsfromthe factthat
Americangraduatestudents whomajorin educationoftenreceivemuch
trainingin statistics
beforeoccupyingpositionsin suchplacesas school
mediacenters.)
The primary concernof thispaperis theteachingof descriptive and
inferential statisticsto libraryschool students.What implications for
teachingarefoundinthedataon theuseofstatistical methodsinthe1975
journalliterature of libraryand information science?
table 2. Percentages, and
byJournal,of ArticlesUsingDescriptive
in 1975
Statistics
Inferential
Per cent of
Per cent of statistical
Per cent of all articles articles
all articles that used that used
thatused inferential inferential
Journal statistics statistics statistics
Researchin Librarianship 100.0 25.0 25.0
- -
JournalofLibraryAutomation 78.6
JournalofDocumentation 72.7 9.1 12.5
de
BulletindesBibliothèques
France 69.2 - -
66.7 - -
LibraryReview
International
9
JOURNAL OF EDUCATION FOR LIBRARIANSHIP

65.4 - -
LibraryTrends
BulletinoftheMedicalLibrary
Association 63.8 2.1 3.3
JournalofLibrarianship 61.9 19.0 30.8
Review 60.0 - -
Microform
Journalof theAmericanSociety
Science
for Information 57.8 17.8 30.8

UnescoBulletinfor Libraries 52.9 - -

Collegeand ResearchLibraries 52.3 9.1 17.4
InformationProcessingand
Management 52.2 4.3 8.3
LibraryQuarterly 52.2 13.0 25.0
Libri 51.8 3.7 7.1

and Technical
Scientific
InformationProcessing 47.9 2.1 4.3
Law Library 45.8 - -
Journal
SpecialLibraries 44.8 1.5 3.3
JournalofEducationfor
Librarianship 44 .4 5.6 12.5
LibraryResourcesand Technical
Services 40.6 3.1 7.7

AustralianLibraryJournal 40.3 1.5 3.7

Documentation etBibliothèques 40.0 - -
40.0 - -
JournalofAcademicLibrarianship
37.7 - -
Library
Journal
35.0 - -
LibraryAssociation
Record

Canadian Library 33.3 - -

Journal
33.3 - -
JournalofLibraryHistory
33.3 - -
LibraryHistory
SchoolMedia Quarterly 31.8 13.6 42.9
WilsonLibraryBulletin 31.0 - -
26.9 - -
RQ
AslibProceedings 24.0 2.0 8.3
DrexelLibraryQuarterly 20.0 - -
Forumon Information
International
and Documentation 20.0 - -
IFLA Journal 16.7 - -
9.4 - -
SLJ¡SchoolLibraryJournal

Medians of all values 44.6 0.0 0.0

Medians of non-zero values 44.6 5.0 10.4

10
 and Inferential
TeachingDescriptive in LibrarySchools
Statistics
Statistics
table 3. JournalswithArticlesUsingInferential
Percentof
statistical Numberof
articles Numberof articles
thatused articles using
inferential using inferential
Journal statistics statistics statistics
SchoolMedia Quarterly 42.9 7 3
JournaloftheAmericanSociety
Science
for Information 30.8 26 8
JournalofLibrarianship 30.8 13 4
LibraryQuarterly 25.0 12 3

Researchin Librarianship 25.0 4 1

Collegeand ResearchLibraries 17.4 23 4
JournalofDocumentation 12.5 16 2
JournalofEducationfor
Librarianship 12.5 8 1

AslibProceedings 8.3 12 1
InformationProcessingand
Management 8.3 12 1
LibraryResourcesand Technical
Services 7.7 13 1
Libri 7.1 14 1

and Technical
Scientific
InformationProcessing 4.3 23 1
AustralianLibraryJournal 3.7 27 1
BulletinoftheMedicalLibrary
Association 3.3 30 1
SpecialLibraries 3.3 30 1

First,the inferentialapproachleads one to the recognition thatthe

journal literaturewhich waspublished in 1975 and examined in thestudy
isonlya sampleofrecentresearchand practice. Asa sample,however, itis
to
largeenough permit one to believethat the proportions observed are
fairlyclose to those thatwould be found if one examined the entire
populationofrecent journalliterature in thesefields.(It is expectedthat
theon-goingstudythatfurnished thedatawillfindthattheproportions
ofuseofstatisticsingeneraland ofinferential inparticular
statistics have
increasedin the literatureof libraryand information scienceduring
recentdecades;butatthemoment, thatremainsan untestedhypothesis.)
Second,one mustrecognize,especiallyfromthedata in Table 2, that
even a casual readingof thisliterature demandsan acquaintancewith
descriptive Even
statistics. in theleast oriented
statistically journal,nearly
one articleout of tenused statistics.
Third,thedatashowthatprofessionals working in library scienceand
11
JOURNALOF EDUCATION FOR LIBRARIANSHIP

informationscienceunquestionablyneed tounderstand basicinferential

inordertofollowtheliterature
statistics ofthesefields.FromTable 3 itis
easy to see thattheJournaloftheAmerican Sciencehad
forInformation
Society
thehighestnumberofinferential
statistics 8,and thattheJournal
articles,
and Collegeand ResearchLibrariestiedforsecond place with
ofLibrarianship
foursucharticlesapiece.PlacingthirdweretheLibrary Quarterly and the
SchoolMediaQuarterly, bothwiththreeinferential statisticsarticles;the
JournalofDocumentation, withtwo,was next.Journalsof the calibreof
theseand theothersin Table 3 simplycannotbe ignoredbytheprofes-
sionallibrarianorinformation scientist, and in thesejournalstheprofes-
sionalis goingtocontinuetoencounter articlesthathe orshecannotfully
understandwithouta knowledgeof inferential statistics.
Sinceprofessionals in libraryand information scienceneed an under-
of
standing descriptive and inferential libraryschoolstudents
statistics,
need to be taughtthesesubjects.As futureprofessionals, theymustbe
enabledto cope withpublications thatgo beyondwhatB. C. Vickery16
callsthequalitative description modeofinvestigation intowhathe labels
as quantitativeand evaluative description and,evenfurther, intocorrela-
tive studiesand studiesthatinvolvecausal analysis.Whetheror not
students and professionals perform suchstudiesthemselves, theymustbe
able to understand, and appreciatetheimportance of, such studies.
There is stillanotherwayofinterpreting thedata. Althoughmanyof
thearticles countedas usingstatistics did so inminorways,a considerable
numberof articlescontainedlarge quantitiesof descriptive statistics.
Manyof thesewere detailedpresentations of resultsfromsurveysor
recordsof userbehavior(e.g.,studiesof interlibrary loan requestswith
dataon age ofjournalorbooksought,category ofrequestor - physician,
dentist,student,socialworker,medicaltechnician, - languageof item
requested, sourceofreference.) Manyoffered a richness ofdatathatcried
out for inferential analysis(e.g., do physicians who are primarily in
practicereallytendto requestarticlesthatare morerecentthanthose
requestedbyphysicians whoare primarily educators?).
Brittainassertsthatthe "needs of practising librariansforskills[in
researchand statistics] are relatively modest.. . ,"17To thedegreethat
thisistrue,itis so becausepracticing librariansand information scientists
set theirsightstoo low and failto realizehow muchbettertheycould
practicetheirprofession iftheypossessedstatistical skillsand werealert
foropportunities toemploythem.Burns,havingobservedthat"libraries
have nevercome to gripsadequatelywiththe problemswhicharisein
gathering statistical
information aboutthemselves or theiroperations,"18
goeson topresenta longlistofquestionstowhichlibrary andinformation
system managersneedanswersbutalmostalwayslackthem.Whyare the
answersmissing? Becausethegenerally inadequatestatistical knowledge
12
 and Inferential
TeachingDescriptive in LibrarySchools
Statistics
ofprofessional librariansand information scientistscausesthemto miss
opportunities to gatherand analyzedata thatcould yieldtheanswers.
The percentageof use of descriptive in journal articlesin
statistics
libraryand information science can be viewed as a measure ofthereadi-
nessofauthorsinthesefieldstoemployquantitative arguments, toappeal
"tothenumbers"forsupportfortheirtheses.The percentageof use of
inferentialstatisticscan be viewedas a measureof thesophistication of
authorsin thesefieldsin employingquantitative arguments.The gap
betweenthepercentage (45.1)ofarticles in 1975thatusedstatistics ofany
kindand thepercentage(2.9) thatusedinferential statistics
indicatesthe
greatpotentialforimprovement in theuse of quantitative arguments.
The studyuncoveredexampleafterexampleofdescriptive summaries
ofdata on whichinferential analysesmight have been performed. Such
analysesmighthave led - surelywouldhave led in somecases- to a
deeperunderstanding of thephenomenabeingstudied.
One clarification thatcan resultfrominferential analysisis a recogni-
tionthatapparentlyminordifferences are actuallysignificant (in the
statistical
sense) and may be of practicalimportance. Failure to use infer-
entialanalysiscan thusresultin missingan opportunity forclarification.
Probablymorecommonis themistakeof assumingthatan observed
difference is significantwheninferential analysiswouldhaveshownitto
be easilyexplainedbychance.An examplewhichtheauthorhas used in
theclassroomforseveralyearscomesfroman article19 comparingmen
andwomenheadlibrarians inAmerican colleges.One of the tablesinthat
articlecontainstheinformation presented here as Table 4.
table 4. PortionofCollegeBudgetAllotted
toLibrary
vs.SexofHead of
Library
Number of librarianswhose librarieswere allotted
the stated portionof the college budget
Portionof college
budget allottedto Male Female
the library head librarians head librarians
Under 2% 9 6
2%-4% 78 60
4%-6% 92 109
Over 6% 19 18

Referring tothedatainTable 4, thearticlesays,"It wouldappearthat

the ladies are slightlybetterat gettingthe moneythanare the men."
Although thisstatement canbe arguedtobe correctifinterpreted literal-
it
ly, certainly might leavea hurriedreader withtheerroneousimpression
thatthearticlehad provedwomenhead librarians in generaltobe more
successful thanmenhead librarians themoney."In fact,by
at "getting
13
JOURNAL OF EDUCATION FOR LIBRARIANSHIP

applyingthe chi-square testof associationto the data in Table 4, one

obtains4.35 as theobservedchi-squarescore.With3 degreesoffreedom,
thisscoreis onlyslightlyoverhalfof thecriticalvalueof 7.82 neededto
reject,at the 5 per centlevelof significance,thenullhypothesis of no
associationbetweena library's share of thecollegebudget and the head
librarian's sex. One musttherefore recognize that the numbers of male
and femalehead librarians thatturnedup in theauthor'ssamplemight
just as easilyhaveseemedto showa slighttendency formentobe better
thanwomenat"getting themoney."The observeddataaresimply incon-
clusive.
A clear-cut exampleof an author'sreachinga conclusionthatwas not
supportedby ownevidenceisfoundina paper20surveying
his usersofthe
technicallibraryof a company.One of the statements in the paper is:
"Significantdifferencesbetweendirectors[of departmentsof the
company]and non-directors wererevealedin manyresponses.. . . On
theirreasonforuse ofthelibrary [presented hereas Table 5],44% ofthe
directorsuse it forkeepingup on currentinformation comparedwith
21% fornon-directors. Thisdirector/non-director splithasseriousimpli-
cationsforthelibraryand is themostimportant finding."
table 5. Reasonsfor Usinga CompanyLibraryvs. Statusof User
Consensus
Reason for Use of Library [Totals] Director Non-Director
Work in quiet place 0 0 0
Literaturesearch 1 (3%) 0 1 (7%)
Keep up on currentliterature 11 (34%) 8 (44%) 3(21%)
Get answer to question 13(41%) 8(44%) 5(36%)
Obtain citation 7(22%) 2(12%) 5(36%)

Whathappenswhenone examinesthesedatabythemethodsofinfer-
ential statistics?Using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov two-sampletestof
goodness-of-fit,21 one findsthatthe observedvalue,0.24, of the test
is muchlessthanthecriticalvalue,0.48,which(withsamplesof
statistics
14 and 18, respectively) mustbe exceeded for rejectionof the null
hypothesis at the 5 per cent The generalnull
level of significance.
hypothesis of theKolmogorov-Smirnov testis,Ho: The twopopulations
fromwhichthesamplesweredrawnhavethesamedistribution function.
In thisexamplethe null hypothesis maybe particularizedthus:The
variousreasonsforusingthelibrary are snared,inthesameproportions,
by directors and non-directors.

14
 Teaching Descriptiveand InferentialStatisticsin LibrarySchools
In short,when one examines the data of the example fromthe view-
point of inferentialstatistics,one realizes that the apparent difference
betweendirectorsand non-directorsin theirreasons forusing thelibrary
is probablyjust the kind of differencethatarises by chance alone out of
typicalvagariesof the process of sampling.The evidence simplydoes not
justifythereportedconclusionthatdirectorsand non-directorsgenerally
differin theirreasons for using the library.
One need not be versed in the Kolmogorov-Smirnovtestto check the
conclusion the article draws from Table 5. Though the Kolmogorov-
Smirnov procedure is preferable for dealing with Table 5, the better-
knownchi-squaretestof associationcould be used. An appropriatewayof
using it entailsignoringthe "workin quiet place" categoryand merging
the "literaturesearch" and "obtaincitation"categoriesto avoid expected
frequenciesless thanone.22The resultis a chi-squarescore of 4.54 with2
degrees of freedom, well under the criticalvalue of 5.99 needed for
rejection,at the 5 per cent level,of the null hypothesisof no association
between being a directoror non-directorand reasons for using the li-
brary.
Both the chi-square and the Kolmogorov-Smirnovprocedures show
thatthearticle's"mostimportantfinding"is notsupportedbyitsdata. The
pointis thatitsauthorfailedto recognizethe possibility thathis data were
inconclusive and to test for that possibility.Now, all students in an
elementarycourse in inferentialstatistics willworkat leasta fewproblems
using thechi-squaretestof association.The author would argue thatany
such studentexperiencesenough of the vagariesof smallsamples to have
asked himselfor herselfwhetherthe frequenciesin Table 5 reallysup-
ported the conclusiondrawn in thisexample, and thatany such student
would thus have avoided the error.
Even an elementaryunderstandingof theconceptsof inferentialstatis-
ticswould have saved theauthorofthisexample fromstatingin print- as
"themostimportantfinding"of his study- a conclusionwhichhis own
data belie. But more important,such an understandingwould have saved
his readers fromacquiringas factan unsubstantiated,and quite possibly
false,conclusion.
A final example. While the author was writingthis paper, a former
studentdropped in to visit.During the conversationhe casually men-
tioned thathe had just found a potentiallyembarrassingmisuseof statis-
ticsin a requestfora grantcurrentlybeing draftedin thelibrarywherehe
now works.Because he knewenough about statistics, he notonlykepthis
institutionfrombeing embarrassedby the misuse but also quite possibly
preventedthe proposal itselffrombeing considered unfavorablyby the
prospectivefundingagencybecause of the error.In short,his knowledge
of statisticsmay well mean thousands of dollars to his libraryin this
15
JOURNALOF EDUCATION FOR LIBRARIANSHIP
instancealone.
The problemsof makingmistakesand missingopportunitiesto probe
more deeply into phenomena constitutethe main argumentforteaching
inferentialstatisticsin libraryschools. One should not overlookthe addi-
tional argument of enabling students to understand the professional
literaturebetter.
But can libraryschool studentslearn inferentialstatistics? The present
is
paper arguing thatthe answer is "Yes," and thisanswer is supportedby
experience in teaching inferentialstatisticsin the Graduate School of
LibraryScience, Universityof Texas at Austin.
For the past six years the course, Research in Library Science, has
included an introductionto descriptiveand inferentialstatistics.Other
parts of the three semesterhour course are an introductionto scientific
research,trainingin the preparation of research proposals, trainingin
surveymethods, and brief treatmentsof other areas of library-related
research, viz., content analvsis, stylostatistics,historicalresearch (with
emphasis on cliometrics,the newly developing area of quantitative
methods in historicalresearch),and analyticbibliography.
This course appears quite similar in content to the quantitative-
methods course at Loughborough Universitythat Brittain23outlines,
except that it places less emphasis on surveymethods and much more
emphasis on statistics.These differencesin emphasis stemnot onlyfrom
thecase forteachinginferentialstatisticspresentedin thispaper, but also
fromthebeliefthatstudents(and professionals)can learn surveymethods
on theirown muchmoreeasilythantheycan learn statistics on theirown.
To guide the autodidact in surveymethods,there is an abundance of
good textbooks.The appendix to this paper offerssome suggestions.
The would-be autodidact in statistics,however,faces greaterdifficul-
ties. There is simplyno satisfactorytextbookin English24on statistics
designed specificallyfor librariansand informationscientists,although
H. Goldhor's book25on researchprovidesa usefulintroduction.A recent
efforttowardsuch a text26turnedout, unfortunately, to be "repletewith
errors"27thatmake itunsuitableforthestatisticalnovice.For textbooksin
statistics, theTexas course has relied on Goldhor'sbook and on introduc-
tory texts for studentsin psychologyand sociology(for details, see the
appendix).
The intrinsicdifficulties of statisticsand thelack of suitabletextsaimed
at librariansand informationscientistswould sufficeas reasons for em-
phasizing statisticsover surveymethods in libraryschool courses in re-
searchor quantitativemethods.But thereis stillanotherreason: It is now
possible to teach students computer-assistedstatistics.Computer pro-
gramscan handle thetediousarithmeticthatused to burden studentsand
statisticians.The student,freed fromarithmetictoil,can concentrateon
16
 and Inferential
TeachingDescriptive in LibrarySchools
Statistics
theconceptsofstatistics insteadofthecalculations. Furthermore, compu-
ter programscan easilyhandle problemslarge enough and realistic
enoughtoprovidethestudentadditionalincentives forlearning.Practice
withsuchprograms helpsstudents tobecomeawareofhoweasyitreallyis
nowadaysto getanswersto statistical problems.Clearly,itwillordinarily
be mucheasier (foradministrative, ratherthan technical,reasons)to
provide instruction in computer-assisted to organizedclassesin
statistics
universitiesthanto autodidacts.
The Texas coursein researchinlibrary scienceintegrates thelearning
of statisticalconceptswithpracticein usingseveralstatistical program
packages,28 includingBMD,29OMNITAB II,30and SPSS.31Barelyhave
thestudents learnedwhatthearithmetic meanisbeforetheylearnhowto
makeOMNITAB calculatemeansforthem.Bytheend ofthecoursethe
studentsare usingthecomputerto performregression analysesand to
drawdatapointsand trendlineson a computer plotter. Alongthewaythe
students learntheconceptsofinferential and someofitsprinci-
statistics
pal techniques(analysisof variance,chi-square,confidenceintervals,
correlation, regression, and t-test)byworking library-oriented problems
withcomputerassistance.
The totalcostofcomputertimeand suppliesfortheproblemsis about
$15 per student.For thismodestexpenditurebytheuniversity thestu-
dentsacquirenotonlya knowledge ofinferentialstatisticsbutalsoa good
deal ofpracticein usingcomputers and inbatch-mode.
interactively The
practiceiseffective inovercoming thequalmsaboutusingcomputers with
whichmanystudentsbeginthecourse.Furthermore, thestatistical
pro-
grampackagesused in the courseare widelyavailable.The students'
attentionis called to the factthatmanyof themwillbe workingfor
academicinstitutions, municipalgovernments, schoolsystems, and com-
panies with computersystems on which these or comparablestatistical
programpackages are or can be installed.
Lestanyonethinkthatstudentsemergefromthecourseable to work
problemsonlywiththeaid of a computer,
statistical it shouldbe added
thatmanualmethodsarenotneglected.However,arithmetic forthesake
of arithmetic is avoided,and studentsare encouragedto use personal
electronic calculators. Quite inexpensivemodels(under$30) nowoffer
directcalculations ofmeanand standarddeviation. ForstudentuseTexas
provides three electronic calculators - Hewlett-Packard models67 and
45 and a CommodoremodelS-61("Statistician") - and thestudents are
requiredto learnto use all three.
Experienceindicatesthata coursein researchor quantitative methods
oughtto comeearly,ratherthanlate,in theeducationof thefledgling
librarian or information AtTexas theresearchmethodscourse
scientist.
used to be scheduledforthestudent'sterminalsemester, as one of the
17
JOURNALOF EDUCATION FOR LIBRARIANSHIP

finalstepsin preparingthe studentto entertheprofession. But at the

suggestion of students the course has been moved to early thecur-
in
riculum.Thus thestudents areabletousewhattheylearnintheresearch
courseintheirlatercourses,especially inconnection withtheirreadingof
the professionalliteratureforothercourses.This recognition by the
studentsthemselves of the importanceof statistical methodsis further
evidenceof the indispensability of thesemethodsforthe personwho
wantsto function as a professional in libraryand information science.
Over 700 studentshave completedthiscoursein researchin library
scienceduringthepastsixyears.Theirsuccessin thecourseprovesthat
library schoolstudents canlearnbothdescriptive andinferential statistics.
A studyof thejournal literature of libraryand information science
showedthatin 1975about45 percentofallthearticlesmadesomeuseof
statisticsand about3 percentofall thearticlesused inferential statistics.
The formerpercentagewas interpreted as, primafacie,a call forthe
educatingoflibrary schoolstudents indescriptive Althoughthe
statistics.
latterpercentageis low,articlesusinginferential appear with
statistics
higherrelativefrequencies intheleadingjournalsusedbyseriousprofes-
sionalsinlibrary and information science.The lowpercentage ofinferen-
articleswas also placed in the contextof mistakesin the
tial statistics
analysisofquantitative dataand missedopportunities formorepenetrat-
inganalyses of such data. It was argued that such mistakes and missed
opportunities, along with the use of inferential in
statistics the leading
professional journals,callfortheeducatingoflibrary schoolstudentsin
inferential statistics.A descriptionwas givenof a coursein research
methodsthatincludesdescriptive and inferential and provides
statistics
students withexperienceinusingcomputerprogrampackagestohandle
statisticaldata. The successfulcompletionof this course by several
hundredlibrary schoolstudents providestheevidencethatsuchstudents
can learndescriptive and inferential statistics.

APPENDIX
Recommended
Workson SurveyMethods
Berdie, D. R., and Anderson,J. F.: Questionnaires: Designand Use. Metuchen, New Jersey,Scarecrow,
1974.
Hyman, H. H., etal.: Interviewingin Social Research.Chicago, Universityof Chicago Press, 1954.
Line, M. B.: LibrarySurveys.London, Clive Bingley, 1967.
Moser, C. A.: SurveyMethodsin Social Investigation. London, Heinemann, 1958.
Oppenheim, A. N.: Questionnaire Designand Attitude Measurement.New York, Basic Books, 1966.
Tauber, M. F., and Stephens, I. R., eds.: LibrarySurveys.New York, Columbia UniversityPress, 1967.
Wheeler, M.: Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics:The ManipulationofPublic Opinionin America.New York,
1976.
Liveright,

18
 and Inferential
TeachingDescriptive in LibrarySchools
Statistics
Comments on Textbooks in Statistics
Beginning withthespring semester ofacademicyear1977-78,thetextbooks instatistics
forthecourse,
Researchin Library Science,at theUniversityof Texas at Austin,are:
Wallis,W. A., and Roberts,H. V.: Statistics:
A NewApproach. Glencoe,Illinois,FreePress,1956.
and
Bruning,J.L., and Kintz,B. L.: Computational
Handbook ofStatistics.
2nded. Glenview,Illinois,Scott,
Foresman,1977.
The previously usedtextbook forthecoursewas:
Hardyck, C. D., and Petrinovich,L. F.: Introduction
to Statistics
for theBehavioralSciences.2nd ed.
Philadelphia,W. B. Saunders,1976.
The approachin thisworkis sound;however, froman
ofthesecondeditionsuffers
thefirstprinting
excessivenumberoftypographical errors(thisauthorcan providea listof errata).
A textin use earlierforthecoursehasjust beenpublishedin a newedition:
Young, R. K., and Veldman, D. J.: Introductory for theBehavioralSciences.3rd ed. New York,
Statistics
Holt,Rinehart
and Winston,1977.
Changesintheneweditionappearto haveincreasedthebook'ssuitability
forlibrary
schoolstudents.

and Notes
References
1. Palmer, D. C, ed.: Planningfor a NationwideSystem
ofLibraryStatistics.
Washington,D.C., U.S.
NationalCenterforEducational 1970.
Statistics,
2. Childers,T. A.: Statistics
That DescribeLibrariesand LibraryService.In: Voigt,M. J.,ed.:
AdvancesinLibrarianship.
NewYork,AcademicPress,1975.Vol. 5, pp. 107-122.
3. Anders,M. E.: Statistical
Information as a BasisforCooperative
Planning.
Library 24:229-
Trends,
244,Oct. 1975.
4. Burns,R. W.,Jr.:AnEmpirical Rationale fortheAccumulationofStatistical
Information.
Library
Resourcesand TechnicalServices,18:253-258, Summer, 1974.
5. Drake,M. A.: Forecasting
AcademicLibrary Growth. andResearch
College Libraries,
37:53-59,Jan.
1976.
6. Leech,S.: YouCan'tAddApplesandOranges.Kentucky Association
Library 39,no.4: 24-27,
Bulletin,
specialissue,1975.
7. Williams,W. H.: HowtoProveYourLibrary's WorthtoItsCommunity. Wyoming Library
Roundup,
31, no. 2:7-8,Tune,1976.
8. See,forexample:Slanker,B. O.: Developing
LIBGIS withStateParticipation.
In: Miele,M.,ed.:
AnnualofLibrary
Bowker andBookTradeInformation.
19thed. New York,R. R. Bowker,1974, pp. 225-228.
9. Leech,ref.6.
10. Purdy,G. F.: Professional
Overview.In: Palmer,ref.1, pp. 25-29.
11. Anders,ref.3.
J.M.: TeachingQuantitative
12. Brittain, MethodsinLibrary Schools.
Journal 9: 108-
ofLibrarianship,
119,April,1977.
13. Simpson,I. S.: BaskStatistics
forLibrarians.
London,CliveBingley,1975.
14. Hopkins.M.: The Bibliographical Resourcesof EuropeanDocumentation Centres.
Journal of
7:84-99,April,1975.
Librarianship,
15. Concisedescriptionsof manyparametric and non-parametric of
techniques inferential
statistics
maybe foundin: Roscoe,J.T.: Fundamental theBehavioralSciences.2nd ed. New York,
ResearchStatisticsfor
Holt,Rinehart and Winston, 1975.
16. Vickery, B. C: AcademicResearchin Library and InformationStudies.
JournalofLibrarianship,
7: 153-160,July,1975.
17. Brittain,ret.12.
18. Burns,ref.4.
19. Blankenship, W.C: Head Librarians:HowManyMen?HowManyWomen?College andResearch
28:41-48,Jan.1967.
Libraries,
20. Fatcheric,J. P.: Surveyof Usersofa Medium-Sized TechnicalLibrary. 66:245-
SpecialLibraries,
251,May/June, 1975.
21. See, forexample:Conover,W. I.: Practical Statistics.
Nonparametric NewYork,Wiley,1971.
22. Fora discussion ofwhatminimum valueofexpectedfrequenciesshouldbe usedinthechi-square
procedure, seepp.235and241of:Snedecor, G. W.,andCochran,W.G.:Statistical
Methods.6thed.Ames,
Iowa,Iowa StateUniversity Press,1967.
19
JOURNALOF EDUCATION FOR LIBRARIANSHIP
ref.12.
23. Brittain,
24. A recentworkin Germandeservesspecialmention:Stock,K. F.: Grundlagen undPraxisder
PullachbeiMünchen,
Bibltotheksstatistik, VerlagDokumentation, handbook
1974.A reference ratherthan
overview
thisworkcontainsan excellent
a textbook, and inferential
of descriptive discusses
statistics,
and providesmanyexamplesofanalysesof library
numerouspossibleapplications, statistics.
25. Goldhor, H.: An Introduction Researchin Librarianship.Urbana, Graduate School of
to Scientific
LibraryScience,University of Illinois,1972.
26. Simpson,ref.13.
27. Norton,H. W.: Reviewof BasicStatistics byI. S. Simpson.Newsletter
forLibrarians, onLibrary
no. 18:8-10,Dec. 1976.
Research,
28. Wyllys,R. E.: InstructionalUse ofStatistical
ProgramPackages:BMD, IMP,OMNITAB II, and
Scienceand Statistics:
SPSS. In: Hogben, D., and Fife,D. W., eds.: Computer on the
TenthAnnualSymposium
pp. 265-270.(NationalBureau of StandardsSpecialPublication
Interface, D.C.,
503.) Washington,
NationalBureauof Standards,1978.
29. Dixon,W. J., ed.: BMDP: Biomedicai ComputerPrograms.Berkeley,California, of
University
California
Press,1975.
30. Hogben,D., Peavy,S. T., andVarner,R. N.:OMNITABII User's Manual.(NBSTechnical
Reference
Note552.) Washington, D.C., NationalBureauof Standards,1971.
Packagefor theSocial Sciences.2nd ed. New York, McGraw-Hill,
31. Nie, N. H., etal. : SPSS: Statistical
1975.

20