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Ecological Indicators 20 (2012) 269–276

Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect

Ecological Indicators
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolind

Tracking the effect of climate change on ecosystem functioning using protected

areas: Africa as a case study
Nathalie Pettorelli a,∗ , Aliénor L.M. Chauvenet a,b , James P. Duffy a , William A. Cornforth a ,
Alizée Meillere a , Jonathan E.M. Baillie c
a
Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent’s Park, London NW1 4RY, UK
b
Division of Biology, Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Ascot, Berkshire SL5 7PY, UK
c
Conservation Programme, Zoological Society of London, Regent’s Park, London NW1 4RY, UK

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Protected areas represent important core ‘units’ for in situ conservation. However, the current static
Received 3 June 2011 system is at risk from the effects of global environmental change. This is especially true in Africa, a
Received in revised form 10 February 2012 biodiversity-rich continent expected to be hit hard by climate change. Focusing on African protected
Accepted 14 February 2012
areas that experience limited human impact (International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN)
categories I and II), we tested three hypotheses regarding the impact of climate change on the dynamics
Keywords:
of net primary productivity (NPP). We expected a lower annual NPP and higher seasonality in NPP in
Climate change
Eastern and Southern Africa; changes in NPP dynamics to coincide with changes in precipitation; no
National park
NDVI
correlation between changes in NPP dynamics and human development. To test these expectations, we
Primary productivity used the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as an index of NPP. Results show that, between
Remote sensing 1982 and 2008, an increased vegetation greenness was observed in 27% of the protected areas monitored
(mostly in Western Africa), and an increased seasonality in 9% of them (mostly in Eastern and Southern
Africa). Our results lend support to current expectations regarding the impacts of climate change, and
demonstrate how protected areas of IUCN categories I and II could be used to track the effect of climate
change on ecosystem functioning in Africa, and possibly elsewhere. The study highlights the need for a
dynamic approach to conservation, where the relevance and efficiency of management actions need to
be regularly evaluated. It also demonstrates that satellite-based approaches offer a cheap, verifiable way
to quickly identify protected areas of concern at a global scale, supporting managers in their effort to
design and apply adaptive management strategies.
© 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
Protected areas (PAs) form the core of most national or regional
biodiversity conservation strategies, with some 120,000 designated
PAs currently covering 13.9 per cent of the Earth’s land surface
(Chape et al., 2008; Coad et al., 2009). They are renowned for their
ability to act as refuges for species and ecological processes that
cannot persist in intensely managed landscapes and seascapes, as
well as for their ability to provide space for natural evolution and
potential ecological restoration (Dudley et al., 2010). In most cases,
they are the only remaining natural or semi-natural areas in whole
regions and significant numbers of species are found nowhere else
∗ Corresponding author. Tel.: +44 020 7449 6334; fax: +44 020 7586 2870.
E-mail addresses: nathalie.pettorelli@ioz.ac.uk (N. Pettorelli),
alienor.chauvenet@ioz.ac.uk (A.L.M. Chauvenet), james.duffy@ioz.ac.uk (J.P. Duffy),
william.cornforth@ioz.ac.uk (W.A. Cornforth), alizee.meillere@gmail.com
(A. Meillere), jonathan.baillie@zsl.org (J.E.M. Baillie).
(Ricketts et al., 2005). But PAs do not just act as a refuge for biodi-
versity. Their value also lies in protection of cultural heritage and
provision of a range of socio-economic benefits; PAs can supply
ecosystem services such as clean water, wild food, local medicines
or genetic material; they can help mitigate the impacts of cli-
mate change through carbon capture and storage, and can act as
a buffer against natural disasters; lastly, they can help maintain
microclimatic or climatic stability (IPCC, 2007; Chape et al., 2008;
Dudley et al., 2010). Because PAs represent the cornerstone of global
conservation efforts (Balmford et al., 2003) and provide multiple
ecosystem services to societies, monitoring their efficacy is key
for making relevant management decisions in the face of future
environmental change (Gaston et al., 2008).
Africa contains a large proportion of the remaining world bio-
diversity (Groombridge and Jenkins, 2002; UNEP, 2006) and is
expected to be hit hard by climate change (Hulme et al., 2001;
IPCC, 2007), with changes in a variety of ecosystems already being
detected (Boko et al., 2007). In such a context, PA monitoring and
assessment in Africa is crucial; information is required to identify

1470-160X/$ – see front matter © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2012.02.014
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270 N. Pettorelli et al. / Ecological Indicators 20 (2012) 269–276

areas displaying rapid changes in their functional attributes, and greatest pressure from climate change and potentially in need of
areas that will need to be modified and/or adapted if they are to conservation interventions.
meet the challenges posed by global warming (Hannah et al., 2007).
Effectively monitoring PAs worldwide, however, involves several
2. Materials and methods
technical and financial challenges: monitoring methods need to
be inexpensive, systematic, repeatable, and verifiable. The rele-
2.1. Material
vant metrics of condition should be frequently recordable, available
over a long time-frame, comparable between PAs, as well as offer-
The NDVI is amongst the most intensely studied and
ing a rapid response that allows the early detection of impacts
commonly used vegetation indices (Pettorelli et al., 2005a,
(Alcaraz-Segura et al., 2009). Satellite imagery has the potential
2011). It is derived from the red:near-infrared reflectance ratio
to revolutionise our ability to track changes in PAs throughout the
(NDVI = (NIR − RED)/(NIR + RED), where NIR and RED are the
world, as satellite data can provide valuable information regard-
amounts of near-infrared and red light, respectively, reflected
ing changes in land use, primary productivity or phenology (Kerr
by the vegetation and captured by the sensor of the satellite;
and Ostrovsky, 2003). In particular, it has recently been proposed
Jensen, 2007). Green leaves have high visible light absorption and
that the monitoring of remotely assessed ecosystem functional
high near-infrared reflectance, resulting in NDVI values close to 1.
attributes provide a great opportunity to assess PA performance,
Senescing vegetation, soil, water, cloud and snow will have higher
whether it is in terms of evaluating the effectiveness of man-
near-infrared absorbance, thus driving NDVI values closer to −1
agement practices or tracking the effects of global environmental
(Tucker et al., 1985). For this study, we made use of the long-term
changes (Alcaraz-Segura et al., 2009; Kinyanjui, 2011).
data processed by the Global Inventory Modelling and Mapping
With this study, we aim to test hypotheses regarding the impact
Studies (GIMMS) group (Tucker et al., 2005; Tang et al., 2011). The
of climate change on the dynamics of vegetation in Africa while
spatial resolution is 8 km (pixel size is 64 km2 ) and the dataset
highlighting potential functional changes in the PA network. To
considered spanned from 1 January 1982 to 31 December 2008.
do so, we consider an important functional attribute, namely the
The data were analysed in their original bi-monthly compositing
radiation intercepted by the vegetation (Virginia and Wall, 2001).
period.
Radiation interception is the main control of carbon gains, and, thus,
PA boundaries were obtained from the World Database on Pro-
of net primary productivity (NPP), which is the most integrative
tected Areas (downloaded in February 2009), and information on
indicator of ecosystem functioning (Monteith, 1981; Virginia and
the major land cover types occurring in each PA was obtained
Wall, 2001). This attribute was indexed using the Normalised Dif-
by overlaying the PA boundaries and information on global land
ference Vegetation Index (NDVI; Wang et al., 2004). Because PAs
cover type distribution from the Global Land Cover 2000 Project
minimise land-use conversions, evaluating functional attributes in
(Fig. 1). The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) dataset
PAs can help discern the effects of different drivers of environmen-
Version 2.1, produced monthly at 2.5◦ spatial resolution, was
tal change on ecosystem functioning (Garbulsky and Paruelo, 2004).
used for the period 1982–2008 (Herrmann et al., 2005). Human
Specifically, PAs of categories I (a and b) and II are designated to pro-
development was indexed using (1) country-level data on human
tect ecological integrity, hence, focussing on them should maximise
population growth rate and poverty level and (2) information on
our chances of solely detecting climatic signals as human impact
the level of human impact in and around each PA (using buffers;
in these areas is strictly controlled (IUCN, 1994). The following
see Section 2.2). Data on human population growth rate (trend
hypotheses were tested:
in human population growth rate over the period 1982–2008)
and poverty level (average percentage of the population living
(H1) According to reported changes and current projections (Boko
with less than US $2 a day over the period 1982–2008) for each
et al., 2007; Christensen and Hewitson, 2007), seasonal patterns in
African country considered were retrieved from the World Bank
temperature and precipitation are expected to increase in strength
(http://data.worldbank.org/indicator; downloaded in July 2010;
in Eastern and Southern Africa. This should translate into (a)
Table A1 in the Appendix). The human footprint, which is a com-
decreasing levels of vegetation greenness and (b) increasing sea-
posite of transport, night-time lights, urban areas, land cover and
sonality in vegetation greenness in PAs in these regions.
population density layers, normalised by biome (1 km resolution;
(H2) Previous studies have already reported a strong correlation
Sanderson et al., 2002; Leroux et al., 2010) was used to assess the
between vegetation dynamics as indexed using the NDVI and rain-
human impact inside and outside each PA.
fall patterns in Africa (Davenport and Nicholson, 1993; Tucker
and Nicholson, 1999; Chamaille-Jammes et al., 2006; Funk and
Brown, 2006). Therefore, changes in vegetation greenness in pro- 2.2. Methods
tected areas of categories I and II should coincide with changes in
precipitation. NDVI pixels corresponding to the PAs of categories I and II were
(H3) In theory, no resource exploitation is allowed in PAs of cate- extracted from the images of the GIMMS African subset. PAs smaller
gories I and II (IUCN, 1994), hence, changes in NPP in these PAs than the area of a single NDVI pixel were removed from the anal-
(as indexed using the NDVI) should be determined by changes ysis. This meant that out of the 263 possible PAs, only 197 were
in climatic conditions, with no correlation between the spatial considered. Based on previous work (Hartley et al., 2007), a 30 km
distribution of changes in vegetation greenness and human devel- buffer was created for each of those PAs, and their NDVI values
opment. extracted. Buffers which partially included other PAs (IUCN I–VI)
were modified leaving the unprotected areas only for analysis (i.e.,
While testing for these three hypotheses, we provide a descrip- areas of the buffer that overlap another PA were not considered).
tion of the temporal trends in the total amount of and seasonality in Buffer areas located wholly in another PA led to this buffer and its
the radiation intercepted by vegetation over the period 1982–2008. associated PA being eliminated from analysis.
The results are expected to inform the management of PAs in Africa, For each PA and its associated buffer, the average human foot-
by reporting information correlated with recent trends in NPP and print values were calculated. In addition, for each PA and each year,
seasonality across the whole network and by highlighting areas we obtained monthly precipitation data. They were interpolated to
displaying significant changes. It is also hoped that this will help a spatial resolution of 0.02◦ (about 2.2 km) using the Inversed Dis-
identify species and ecosystems in PAs that are likely to be under tance Weighted (IDW) interpolation function in ArcGIS 9.3.1. To do
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N. Pettorelli et al. / Ecological Indicators 20 (2012) 269–276
Fig. 1. Map of Africa detailing the major land cover types (information derived from the Global Land Cover 2000 Project) and the locations of the protected areas considered.
so, 4 neighbours and a power of 1 were considered. We chose this
interpolation method as it is most suitable for the size and nature
of the GPCP dataset (Hartkamp et al., 1999). A high spatial resolu-
tion was used so that it was certain each PA would contain a data
point. The output monthly raster files were vectorised to points.
Precipitation data were then intersected with PA boundaries and
averaged to obtain annual precipitation. Trends in precipitations
for each PA were determined using the Mann–Kendall trend test
(Alcaraz-Segura et al., 2010a,b).
The next step was to correct for environmental noise (‘smooth-
ing’) in the NDVI data (Pettorelli et al., 2005a). The radiation
reaching the satellite sensor can be contaminated by atmospheric
variation, and NDVI values may therefore become inexact represen-
tations of the vegetation status on the ground (Tanre et al., 1992;
Achard and Estreguil, 1995). This was performed by identifying
rapid changes in NDVI values (of 0.25 or more from one composite
to the next) for each pixel, which were immediately followed by a
return to the original values or higher (Garonna et al., 2009). We
271
attributed these changes to environmental noise, because factors
such as water, clouds and shadow give rise to highly reduced NDVI
values (Pettorelli et al., 2005a). Once we had identified all contami-
nated values, they were replaced by the average of the previous and
following values, so as to ‘smooth’ the annual NDVI curve for that
pixel. If two consecutive ‘drop’ values were present, the average of
the closest higher NDVI values was calculated; all pixels with 3 con-
secutive NDVI values <0 were removed (Garonna et al., 2009). PAs
with more than 50% of their pixels removed were not considered
for further analysis.
Based on spatially averaged curves estimated for each PA and
each year, four parameters capturing important features of ecosys-
tem functioning were calculated: (1) annual maximum (MAX),
(2) annual minimum (MIN), (3) annual integrated NDVI (NDVI-I),
and (4) annual relative range (RREL = [MAX − MIN]/MEAN, where
MEAN is the annual mean NDVI for the PA considered; Pettorelli
et al., 2005a; Alcaraz-Segura et al., 2009). As a result, for each sin-
gle PA, we had four datasets (one for each parameter MAX, MIN,
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272 N. Pettorelli et al. / Ecological Indicators 20 (2012) 269–276
NDVI-I, and RREL), each containing 27 values (i.e., one for each
year).
All statistical analyses were performed in the statistical package
R (www.r-project.org). We searched for significant linear trends
over the period 1982–2008 in each of those four datasets for each
PA. Significance was assessed using the Mann–Kendall trend test
(Alcaraz-Segura et al., 2010a,b). Although we performed a large
number of tests (n = four parameters × number of PAs), each test
was done on a unique dataset, i.e., no multiple comparisons. As
a result, we did not need to use any multiple testing correction
method such as the Bonferroni correction.
Average human footprint inside and outside PAs was compared
using ANOVA. To explore correlations between temporal trends
in NDVI dynamics, human footprint and precipitation, we fitted
a linear model, where the trend in each parameter (MIN, MAX,
NDVI-I and RREL; as estimated by the Mann–Kendall’s rank cor-
relation coefficient) was modelled as a function of the average
human footprint value inside and outside each PA, as well as the
Mann–Kendall’s rank correlation coefficient for precipitation in
each PA. To explore correlations between temporal trends in NDVI
dynamics, trend in human population growth rate (over the period
1982–2008) and poverty level (percentage of the population living
with less than $2 a day), we determined for each country (N = 33)
the proportion of PAs displaying significant changes in NDVI-I, MIN
and MAX. These proportions were arcsine square root-transformed
(Sokal and Rohlf, 1995) before fitting a linear model (with trend in
human population growth rate or log (poverty level) as factors)
weighed by the number of PAs for each country.
3. Results
Environmental noise correction led to a significant drop in the
number of pixels and PAs that could be considered for analy-
sis. Using the aforementioned selection criteria meant that only
168 PAs (12,679 pixels) out of the original 263 PAs were put
forward for analysis. Average PA size was 75 pixels, standard
deviation being 152 pixels. Ten of these PAs were of category I,
the rest were category II. These 168 PAs covered 33 countries
(Fig. 1). Average NPP as indexed by NDVI-I over the 27 years
considered varied greatly across PAs, with average NDVI-I values
ranging from 1.5 in Elba National Park (NP, Egypt) to 18.78 in
Tsaratanana NP (Madagascar). Likewise, the annual relative range,
which constitutes a normalised descriptor of seasonality, ranged
from 0.24 in Tassili N’Ajjer NP (Algeria) to 1.50 in Dinder NP
(Sudan). Trends in MIN, MAX, NDVI-I and RREL from pixels within
the PAs were highly correlated to trends in these parameters in
pixels from associated buffers (MIN: slope = 0.85 ± 0.04, R2 = 0.73,
p < 0.001; MAX: slope = 0.83 ± 0.06, R2 = 0.57, p < 0.001; NDVI-I:
slope = 0.79 ± 0.04, R2 = 0.71, p < 0.001; RREL: slope = 0.86 ± 0.04,
R2 = 0.74, p < 0.001). However, the average human footprint index
was significantly higher outside PAs than inside PAs (F1,334 = 5.54,
p = 0.02).
Forty-six out of the 168 PAs considered displayed a significant
increase in average NDVI-I, as opposed to 11 that displayed a sig-
nificant decrease (Table 1). Three of the 46 PAs were of category I,
and 1 out of the 11 PAs displaying a significant decrease in NDVI-
I belonged to that same category. In accordance with (H1a), the
11 PAs displaying a significant decrease in NDVI-I were primarily
located in Eastern and Southern Africa (Fig. 2). Fifteen PAs displayed
a significant increase in average seasonality (none of them being of
category I), while 44 PAs (5 of them being of category I) showed
a significant decrease in average seasonality. In accordance with
(H1b), most of the PAs displaying an increased seasonality were
located in Eastern and Southern Africa (Fig. 3).
Table 1
Number of PAs (out of the 168 PAs considered) displaying significant changes in
annual maximum (MAX) and minimum (MIN) NDVI, annual integrated NDVI (NDVI-
I) and annual relative range (RREL = [MAX − MIN]/MEAN, where MEAN is the annual
mean NDVI for the PA considered). Significance was assessed with Mann–Kendall
trend tests (n = 27 years, threshold values = 0.27066 for p = 0.05).
Significant increase Significant decrease
PA MAX NDVI 21 22
MIN NDVI 41 13
NDVI-I 46 11
RREL 15 44
Buffer MAX NDVI 22 8
MIN NDVI 42 11
NDVI-I 47 18
RREL 15 43
According to (H2), changes in NPP should be driven by changes
in precipitation. Indeed, we found positive links between tempo-
ral trends in precipitation and trends in MAX (slope = 0.37 ± 0.10,
t = 3.89, p < 0.001), RREL (slope = 0.22 ± 0.12, t = 1.87, p = 0.06) and
NDVI-I (slope = 0.18 ± 0.13, t = 1.41, p = 0.16). Such a link was how-
ever not significant when considering MIN (p = 0.93).
Finally, in accordance with (H3), in most cases we could not
find any significant correlation between the proportion of PAs
(per country) displaying temporal changes in vegetation greenness
and human development indices such as the trend in popula-
tion growth rate (over the period 1982–2008) or poverty level
(average percentage of the population living with less than US $2
a day over the period 1982–2008) (all p > 0.05). However, coun-
tries with increasing human population growth rate had a higher
proportion of PAs with significant decrease in MAX within their
boundaries (slope = 0.29 ± 0.12, t = 2.46, p = 0.02). These countries
were also associated with a smaller proportion of PAs with signifi-
cant increases in RREL (slope = −0.25 ± 0.10, t = −2.41, p = 0.02). We
were unable to report any significant link between the probability
to display a negative trend in MIN or MAX and the human footprint
inside or outside PAs (all p > 0.15).
4. Discussion
This study addressed the role of PAs as reference areas to eval-
uate the impact of global change on natural ecosystems. The focus
was on PAs in Africa, since this continent offers an adequate sce-
nario in relation to: (a) the number of PAs; (b) the availability of
regional evaluations of the impact of climate change and human
pressure, and (c) the high diversity of ecosystems where to test
the proposed hypotheses. In general, our predictions were met, as
(1) we reported a trend towards lower annual NPP (as indexed
using NDVI-I) and higher seasonality (as indexed using RREL) in
Eastern and Southern Africa; (2) we demonstrated a link between
changes in rainfall and changes in vegetation greenness across
the continent; (3) in most cases we could not report any signif-
icant correlation between the spatial distribution of significant
changes in vegetation greenness dynamics and human develop-
ment or poverty levels. Our last prediction (namely, that changes
in NPP dynamics in PAs of categories I and II should be solely deter-
mined by changes in climate) was based on the assumption that PAs
of categories I and II are described as being mostly, if not totally,
protected from direct human impact, e.g., illegal logging, graz-
ing, or agriculture. This was a reasonable assumption considering
that those PAs encompass strict nature reserves, wilderness areas
or NPs, with natural, unmodified habitat where human impact is
strictly controlled (IUCN, 1994). Contrary to expectations, however,
countries with increasing human population growth rate were
associated with a higher proportion of PAs with significant decrease
in the level of maximum vegetation greenness. This might indicate
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N. Pettorelli et al. / Ecological Indicators 20 (2012) 269–276
Fig. 2. Spatial distribution of the protected areas displaying a significant increase in the satellite-based index of annual net primary productivity (NDVI-I) and a significant
decrease in NDVI-I.
that some PAs of categories I and II are subjected to some levels
of human pressure and human exploitation, potentially interfering
with the link between climate and NDVI dynamics in these areas.
Interestingly, several trends reported at the individual PA scale
also corroborate results from previous local assessments: for exam-
ple, our approach highlighted (a) an increased seasonality and a
reduced annual NPP in the Serengeti and Masai Mara NPs, which is
supported by recent assessment of the ecosystem (where increased
fire occurrence and an increased elephant population have been
suggested to correlate with a decreased tree coverage; Sinclair
et al., 2008); (b) degrading conditions in Mweru-Wantipa NP where
the reported increased seasonality and a reduced annual NPP
also matches reports of human encroachment and forest clear-
ing activities in the park (Almond, 2000); (c) degrading conditions
in Rwanda, a country where civil war in the nineties is known to
have had an ecological impact on PAs (see e.g., Havugimana, 2009).
This set of local examples illustrates a possible shortcoming of PA
273
monitoring approaches based on NDVI, namely that they cannot
help remotely identify the main factors (e.g., climate, soil quality,
megaherbivore density, illegal activities) locally driving changes in
NPP dynamics.
Other limitations are linked to the nature of the NDVI: this
satellite-based index is a crude estimate of vegetation health
(Goward and Prince, 1995), and its ability to monitor variation in
NPP can sometimes be reduced (Markon and Peterson, 2002). In
tropical ecosystems, the radiation reaching the satellite sensor can
be contaminated by atmospheric variations such as cloud cover and
smoke, and NDVI values may become inexact representations of the
vegetation status on the ground (Achard and Estreguil, 1995). NDVI
is moreover known to have only a weak ability to detect NPP varia-
tion in very dense canopies, as the linear correlation between NDVI
and the leaf area index (LAI) does not hold in very densely vegetated
areas (Huete, 1988; Pettorelli et al., 2005a). It can also be expected
that the likelihood to detect a trend in NDVI dynamics is influenced
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274 N. Pettorelli et al. / Ecological Indicators 20 (2012) 269–276

Fig. 3. Spatial distribution of the protected areas displaying a significant increase in the satellite-based index of annual seasonality (annual relative range, RREL) and a
significant decrease in seasonality.

by the level of variability in climatic conditions, although this was
not the case in our study (no significant correlation between the
coefficient of variation in rainfall and the likelihood of picking up
a trend in MIN, MAX, NDVI-I and RREL). Altogether, such limita-
tions could have hampered our ability to detect changes in NPP
dynamics in areas with high vegetation cover, low climatic variabil-
ity and high cloud cover (see Fig. 1A in the Appendix), highlighting
the importance of considering NDVI-based approaches as being a
component of a possible monitoring framework for PAs at a global
scale.
Several studies conducted at various spatial scales and in vari-
ous types of environment have now linked NDVI-based estimates
of NPP to wildlife distribution and abundance (see recent reviews
in Pettorelli et al., 2009, 2011). Likewise, information on temporal
changes in NPP has been shown to correlate with animal move-
ment, distribution and performance (Pettorelli et al., 2005a,b;
Boone et al., 2006; Bro-Jørgensen et al., 2008). Based on these
studies, it can be safely assumed that reduced annual NPP or
increased seasonality in NPP (as indexed using the NDVI) are likely
to affect animal biodiversity. The possible mechanisms by which
such changes can impact biodiversity are varied, depending on the
species under study, ranging from affecting the temporal match
between resource availability and breeding season or arrival of
migrant species (Durant et al., 2005), to affecting carrying capac-
ity (Pettorelli et al., 2009). Although reduced vegetation greenness
can be expected to negatively impact animal biodiversity, increased
vegetation greenness cannot be systematically expected to posi-
tively impact animal biodiversity. For example, while NPP might
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N. Pettorelli et al. / Ecological Indicators 20 (2012) 269–276
have increased in PAs across Western Africa, highlighting, among
other things, a possible change in precipitation regime (IPCC, 2007;
our results) or a positive effect of management actions in this part
of the continent, such a result precludes providing any generaliza-
tion about PA management efficiency when it comes to preventing
biodiversity loss (Redford, 1992; Craigie et al., 2010).
Various authors have recommended the use of satellite data
for PA monitoring (e.g., Alcaraz-Segura et al., 2009; Nemani et al.,
2009; Tang et al., 2011), and the Assessment of African Protected
Areas project (http://bioval.jrc.ec.eu/PA/) is already making use
of NDVI to detect significant anomalies in NDVI dynamics (by
comparing every new 10-day period with the same period in his-
torical records), helping managers to identify PAs that require
further investigation (Hartley et al., 2007). Our work builds on these
approaches, exploring long-term trends in vegetation dynamics.
Information on such trends can help pinpoint those PAs experi-
encing significant, long term changes, highlighting where more
refined data on land use change, exploitation, water availability
and wildlife population times series data are needed.
Ultimately, such an approach could help identify sets of species
or habitats that might be particularly vulnerable to the specific
changes detected. This work however only represents a first step
towards long-term, satellite-based PA monitoring, as e.g., non-
linear trends might provide useful information when it comes to
identifying PAs that require urgent attention; our approach was
based on a coarse scale (8 km × 8 km) dataset and other prod-
ucts might be useful in assessing ecosystem changes (Fensholt
et al., 2009; Pfeifer et al., 2011); the use of different NDVI datasets
might lead to different results (see e.g., Alcaraz-Segura et al.,
2010a,b; Parent and Verbyla, 2010). In particular, the MODIS
(Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer; Huete et al.,
2002) MOD13Q1 product could provide interesting additional fine-
scale information to our first results (see e.g., Garonna et al., 2009).
Additional analysis should be complementary, as previous studies
have reported high consistency among NDVI records derived from
Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (such as the GIMMS
data), SPOT-Vegetation, SeaWiFS, MODIS and Landsat (Brown
et al., 2006). However, MODIS products are only available from
2000, preventing the tracking of long term changes in vegetation
dynamics.
5. Conclusions
Our study demonstrates how PAs of categories I and II can be
used to track the effect of climate change on ecosystem functioning
in Africa and provide another example of what could be achieved
by considering a better integration of satellite-based data in global
monitoring programs. They also highlight the need for a dynamic
approach to conservation, where the relevance and efficiency of
management actions need to be regularly evaluated. Although
satellite-based approaches are linked to several limitations, they do
offer a cheap, verifiable way to quickly identify areas of concerns
at a global scale, supporting managers in their effort to design and
apply adaptive management strategies. Satellite-based information
also provides a cost effective method to target monitoring effort, by
identifying areas with rapid changes in functional attributes where
more intense monitoring might be required.
Acknowledgments
Special thanks are due to Guy Cowlishaw, Ben Collen and Patricia
Brekke for their helpful comments during the developmental stage
of this manuscript. NP was supported by the L’Oréal UK and Ireland
Fellowship For Women In Science. ALMC was supported financially
by the AXA fellowship.
275
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary data associated with this article can be found, in
the online version, at doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2012.02.014.
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