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In the technical analysis of most stock market models, it is assumed that pricing takes
into account all factors and the price curve continuously depends on these parameters. This is
supported by the fact that most of the graph to the right and left of the gap is more or less
adequately approximated by a continuous function. In other words, in most of the process, a
continuous dependence on the parameters affecting the price is maintained. Only in a finite
number of points can the price function experience a gap of the 1st, and its derivative of the 2nd
kind (“gradient catastrophe”).
The basis of the mathematical approach to solving the described problems in this project
proposed two models developed by the authors earlier. The first model is based on the
consideration of the well-known Riemann problem, which showed the significance and role of
symmetries of trend dynamics on the distribution of break points (breaks) of trends, which is a
new result.
Another methodology began in the classical theory of scattering, in particular in
approaches to finding a solution to the inverse problem. Here, the mechanism of the occurrence
of gradient discontinuities was used, obtained for a model of an elastic medium described by the
set of Navier – Stokes – Schrödinger equations, see [1]. The main novelty is the obtained
relations [1] and estimates of the scattering amplitudes and phase changes.
Unlike existing wave models of the stock market, for which the amplitude and period of
the function under study are significant, the influence of the wave phase on the dynamics of the
price function is taken into account to a greater extent.
These approaches lead to a new interpretation of price dynamics, where a change in the
phase and symmetry of the wave, in some cases, induces the formation and growth of a gap in
the price function.
In addition to this, the availability of our own computational algorithm and software will
allow:
- make a wide modification of the methodology;
- supplement the theoretical model due to the results obtained.
- expand the functionality of the software by modular extension of the software
package.
Finally, this approach is comprehensive when, along with the development and
implementation of new methods of analysis, personnel are trained in the basics of technical
analysis of the stock market.
4.3 The novelty of the proposed approach.
Currently, the most famous paradigm of the wave model of the market is the Elliott
model. This model comes from the Fibonacci numbers, which leads to waves repeating in shape.
This circumstance indicates the rather artificial nature of the hypothesis underlying the theory. A
more general approach is developed in the Dow phase theory, which builds on the visible
reaction of market participants. This reaction allows you to structure the trend into phases of
accumulation, participation and implementation. Certain superpositions of actions of traders in
different phases can create a wave character of a trend.
The approach used, based on the Navier-Stokes equation, proceeds from a fairly general
qualitative analogy assuming the existence of a “restoring force”, i.e. the presence of a
combination of factors seeking to stabilize the trend, along with “disturbing power”, seeking to
raise or lower the trend. If we add to this the inertia of the market as an analogue of mass, then
you can see the full qualitative analogy with the mechanical oscillatory circuit, where the
resulting wave motion provides competition between the external disturbing and internal
stabilizing forces in the presence of inertia.
A similar analogy with mechanics at one time made it possible to formulate a
mathematical model that accurately described the anomalous duration of student unrest in 1968
in France (Weidlich V., 1972; Haken G., 1978).
With this point of view, market behavior is similar to some mechanical system with
vibrational degrees of freedom. Each point on the trend is characterized by a set of parameters
{𝑎1 , 𝑎2 … 𝑎𝑛 }. Then the trend can be represented as a line drawn in the space formed by the direct
topological product of all admissible values of all parameters: 𝐴 = 𝑎1 × 𝑎2 × … × 𝑎𝑛 . In a direct
problem, a trend is a solution to an equation formally similar to the equation of oscillations. For a
distributed continuous medium A, the equation of motion is the equation of motion of an elastic
medium in the Navier-Stokes form.
Since in practice it is more important to determine the break points, the inverse problem
is considered. Here, an approach to solving the inverse wave scattering problem is implemented,
based on the accompanying Schrödinger equation.
The results obtained in [1] and based on the expanded use of the phase of functions and
their images can serve as a starting point for the development of a group of analysis tools that
have no analogues in the technical analysis of the stock market.
Another approach, which follows from the consideration of symmetries in the Riemann
problem, calls the change of symmetry the cause of jumps in price functions. Both approaches
are related to each other because they consider the phase of the process as a key characteristic.
In these works, which investigated the Riemann hypothesis, the fundamental problem of
constructing solutions of equations with mirror symmetry was solved, which has not yet been
solved.
From the point of view of modeling financial markets, this means that using the stable
symmetry of Forex instruments - eur / usd, usd / chf leads to the Monty and Hall paradox. The
rejection of these tools creates a sustainable opportunity to use the Bayes formula, which allows
you to build forecasts with a stable increased probability of winning with getting into the
forecasting zone with a probabilistic measure of 0.8-0.9, which allows you to cost reliable
winning strategies
In parallel with the theoretical part of the project, it is planned to develop its technical
part, which proposes a comprehensive and systematic approach to organizing fundamental and
technical analysis of the stock market in the following structure:
software analysis modules;
personnel training system;
an analytical group developing its own modules.
This structure can serve as a basic platform for creating a trading company.
4.4 National and international significance.
Currently, the republic lacks a unified view and a systematic approach to the analysis and
management of stock markets. The project will lay the foundations for systematic training and
qualifications of analysts and stock market traders.
Since the global stock market does not have national restrictions, any positive result of
the application of innovative methodology will be evaluated at the international level.
In this regard, an analysis method that takes into account the fine structure of phase
changes and associates these changes with the parameters of the price function is promising.
4.5 The main technological task to be solved.
The main technological tasks in the project are the development of software tools for
technical analysis of the stock market and the prediction of break points in price trends. Creating
a common interface with the user and with other software modules developed by third-party
manufacturers.
4.6 Socio-economic effect.
Within the framework of the project, it is planned to create a group of traders and analysts
who are familiar with theoretical and software methods of market analysis. A group of trained
specialists can form the core of a company engaged in fundamental and technical analysis of the
stock market.
This group can both perform custom work on the analysis of the state of the customer’s
assets, assess risks and perform services for managing the client’s stock assets.
Actual data show that existing price functions cannot be solutions of differential
equations, due to the presence of such gaps. For this reason, it is necessary to use a different
mathematical apparatus to describe these phenomena.
For a rigorous presentation of the above, we consider the Schrödinger equations together
with the Navier-Stokes equations. According to the completeness of the solutions of the
equation, for V we have the representation:
𝑉 = 𝑃𝑉 + 𝑃𝐷,
where PV is the projection of the velocity onto the continuous part of the spectrum of the
Schrödinger equation, and PD is the projection onto the discrete part of the spectrum.
As it was found out in our works, gradient catastrophes and, as a result, the loss of
reliability of the WRF model occurs in PD. Therefore, we have constructed a numerical
implementation of PD is the basis for overcoming gradient catastrophes in the Navier-Stokes
equations and, therefore, in the WRF model.
For the numerical implementation of PD, the numerical implementation of PV is
required, which is also part of our current work.
In addition, when numerically implementing PD, numerical criteria for finding PD are
needed. Therefore, a large amount of theoretical and numerical research fell on the construction
of the criterion for finding PD.
After finding the PD, the Navier-Stokes equations are rewritten using the form:
V = W + PD,
W = V-PD.
And for Q we have the following equations:
Wt vW (W , W ) (W , PD) ( PD, W ) p f ( x, t ), divW 0 (1)
W t 0 W0 ( x)
In the area of Q R 3 (0, T ) where:
T
𝑑𝑖𝑣 𝑊 = 0,
the refined nonlinear equations for W remain, which is a smooth function, since the poor
behavior of the velocity is in PD.
Unlike the turbulence model, when applied to the market, the gradient catastrophe has a
different interpretation, where the break points are the desired break points of the trends. Thus,
the mathematical model tested in the WRF model passes into an adequate description of market
dynamics.
It was shown that the classical methods of the theory of function estimates in the
framework of the theory of Sobolev - Schwartz spaces are not suitable for the problem of
studying gradient catastrophe. The results show that the embedding theorems cannot give the
opportunity to study the process of the occurrence of gradient catastrophe. An alternative method
is proposed for studying gradient catastrophe through studying the Fourier transform of a
function and isolating the features of a function through the features of the phase of the Fourier
transform of a given function.
The proposed approach is based on the fact that modern mathematical methods of
function theory, devoted to the estimation of functions, have ignored such an important
component of the Fourier transform as its phase.
In this vein, the following theorem was proved:
Theorem. There are functions from 𝑾𝟏𝟐 (𝑹) with an unchanged norm for a gradient
catastrophe, which are sufficient to change the phase of its Fourier transform.
The next goal is to maximize the class of functions in which the phase is important. Here
it is necessary to use the phase that appears in the inverse scattering problem, and the phase
generated by the discrete spectrum of the Liouville equation is mainly of interest. Thus, a
transition to the main subject of research is made - the occurrence of discontinuities, fronts, and
other unstable in numerical modeling, but physically stable objects.
To build a deeper analysis, the results of scattering theory should be applied to this
problem. Consider the spectral problem for the Liouville equations with potential q belonging to
the space of functions M with the following norm.
+∞
‖𝑞 ‖𝑀 = ∫−∞ |𝑞(𝑥 )| (1 + |𝑥 |)𝑑𝑥.
For these, it is known from the results that one can find solutions of the Liouville
equation:
−𝛹 ʺ + 𝑞𝛹 = |𝑘|2 𝛹, 𝑘 ∈ 𝐶.
with the following asymptotics:
lim 𝛹1 (𝑘, 𝑥 ) = 𝑒 𝑖𝑘𝑥 + 𝑠12 (𝑘)𝑒𝑥𝑝(−𝑖𝑘𝑥 ), lim 𝛹1 (𝑘, 𝑥 ) = 𝑠11 (𝑘)ex p(𝑖𝑘𝑥) ,
𝑥→−∞ 𝑥→+∞
After that, the issue of gradient disaster for a more general class of functions is
considered. To do this, we consider the Liouville equation and as a potential we consider a
function from 𝑊21 (𝑅)we give a characterization of these functions through the inverse scattering
problem.
The proof follows from the presentation of U, V; here this result stands out in a separate
theorem.
Theorem. To assess the maximum potential, the following estimates are valid:
+∞
4. Bibliography