Introduction:

Syria lies in the center of Levant, sharing border with Turkey, Iraq, Lebanon as well as Israeli
occupied Golan. The modern day Syria dates back to collapse of Ottoman Empire in 1919. Before
1516, Syrian region was a part of Mumluk Empire. The Ottoman Sultan Selim conquered Syria in
1516 after defeating Mumlukes in northern Syria. And remained under their occupation until
World War 1.

Geostrategic importance of Syria:

Syria is one of the most important geopolitical and economic centers of the main international
equation. Its location on the eastern Mediterranean coast makes it a coastal gateway to the Asian
continent. Syria connects the three continents of Asia, Europe and Africa. Syria is rich in natural,
human and cultural resources. America and some western countries want to have control on
Syria in order to extend power lines from the Arabian Gulf to Europe via Syria to break the need
of Europe for the Russian gas and to weaken Russia they are afraid of, also make the Syrian lands
and ports a passage for importing and exporting goods to the Arab Gulf states.

Skyes-picot agreement

In World War I Ottoman Empire was ally of Germany, fighting against Britain, France and Russia.
Britain, France and Russia held many discussion to discuss the future of the Ottoman Empire.

Skyes-Picot agreement signed between British and French diplomatic to divide Ottoman Empire
into zones according to sphere of influence with the conclusion of WWI. Arab territories was
divided and it was agreed that each country would be allowed to establish such direct and
indirect administration or control as they desire or they think fit to arrange with Arab states.
Under this agreement, France got control of Syria and Lebanon. Britain would take control over
central and southern Mesopotamia, around the Baghdad and Basra province. Palestine would
have an international administration. Other territories under question would have local chief
under the supervision of France and Britain. Britain and France would retain free passage and
trade in each other Zones.
Syrian Independence:

The French reign led to uprising and revolts among people in Syria from 1925-1927. Syrian got
united against French occupation and this is now known as Great Syrian Revolt. French
responded with massive artillery and bombing campaigns against civilian areas, killing thousands.
Other France actions also fueled Syrian nationalism. In 1922, France engraved Lebanon out of
Syria and made it a separate country to protect Christian there, who had ties with France since
at least 1648.

In 1936 France and Syria negotiated a treaty of independence which allowed Syria to remain
independent but gave France military and economic power. At the pouring of WW-II French and
British troops occupied Syria. General De Gaulle promises to end the French mandate. When the
war ended Syria become independent in 1946. Initial years of independence was marked by the
instability and repeated government coup. Syria joined Egypt resulting in the creation of United
Arab Republic in 1958. Egyptian president Jamal Abdel Nasser heads the new state. He orders
the dissolution of Syrian political parties, to the dismay of the Baath party, which had campaigned
for union. This union split in 1961. 1960s bring more military coup, revolts and riots in Syria.
Baath party Revolution:
Baath was founded by Michel Aflaq and Salah-al-Din al-Bitar in 1947. As Nasser’s authoritarian
leadership in the United Arab Republic discredited mainstream parties and allowed new actors
to come to power. A group came primarily from military organized committee opposed Syria’s
incorporation with Egypt. These senior military officers launched a coup in 1963 that toppled
existing president and this union. Hafiz Asad, a young air force officer served military committee
and use this post to rise to power.

The Baathist conspirators first installed Al-din Bitar as Syria’s new president. But both Bitar and
Aflaq were expelled from the Party and from the Syria, and Salah Jadid took over as chief of state.

Syria under Hafez-ul- assad:

The consequence of 1967 war with Israel challenged Baathist power and political rivals criticized
Assad, who was the then defence minister of Syria, for debacle. He started scheme against Jadid
And with the help of his Brother, Hafez Assad had Jadid arrested and confined to a long prison
term. In November 1970 hafez Assad took power as the president of Syria.

He belonged to Alawite Shia group who were in minority in Syria. 83% of population of Syria was
Sunni. As a member of small and religious minority, Assad realized that he needed to legitimize
his rule as a Muslim in predominately Muslim nation. He initially tried to reduce the role of Islam
in Syria by eliminating references to it in the draft of 1973 constitution. However, this decision
provoked demonstration in several Syrian cities, and in response, Assad turned to Musa al-Sadr,
who the then head of high Shia council in Lebanon. Musa Al- Sadr issued Fatwa that Alawite were
a genuine form of Shia’s Islam.

To expand his power base, Assad created the Nationals Progressive Front in 1972, bringing in the
remnants of the Syrian Communist, the Syrian Arab socialist Union, and several other smaller
leftist group. Assad also reached beyond the political party structure to expand his influence,
advancing both Sunni Muslim and Christian officers to high positions in the military. He made
peace with Syria’s Christian leadership and tried to broker good relation with Syria’s Kurds. Assad
also attempted to win loyalties of the peasants dependent on the state instead of the rural
landowners. Assad also made sure that Syria had virtual control of Lebanese politics, reinforcing
his nationalist claims that Lebanon was actually a part of Syria.

Domestic groups rarely challenged Syria’s secular Baathist rule with the significant exception of
the Muslim Brotherhood revolt. Muslim Brotherhood formed a broader Islamic Front in Syria,
inspired partially by a desire to expand Islam into the Syrian political structure. In 1982 the
Muslim Brotherhood organized revolt against Assad in the city of Hama. Assad responded by
arresting, torturing and executing political rebels. Many believe retaliation took the lives of
20,000 civilians. Hafez Assad died in June 2000.

Bashar-ul- Assad:

After the death of Hafez ul Assad, his son Basher ul Assad succeeded him as president of Syria in
2000. He amended the constitution to reduce the minimum age of president from 40 to 34. He
helped to introduce internet in Syria which aided his image as modernist and reformist. In the
start of his rule, he released 600 political prisoner. Syrians were hopeful that their new leader
would grant more freedoms and impose less oppression than his father.

Syria and the “axis of evil”:

In 2002 Senior US official includes Syria in a list of states that make up an axis of evil, first listed
by President Bush in January. Undersecretary for State John Bolton says Damascus is acquiring
weapon of mass destruction. In 2004 US also imposed sanctions on Syria and claimed that they
are supporting terrorism.

On 14 February 2005, Rafiq Hariri, the former Lebanese prime minister, was assassinated by a
massive car bomb in Beirut. Syria was immediately held at least indirectly responsible for the
killing, with many in the region and in the international community especially Washington,
suspecting that it had been carried out by order of Damascus. The US ambassador to Syria was
recalled the day after the assassination. The United States, Europe and most of the Arab world
were united in calling on Syria to withdraw its 14,000–16,000 remaining troops from Lebanon.

Syrian Civil war:

It is also called proxy war and war on terror. It is also sectarian strife because it is a religious war
between shia and sunni Muslim. Bashar belonged to Alawite group who were only 13% of the
population.

Main parties of war:

There were mainly four parties involved in this war

I. Syrian government and its allies and supporters

II. ISIS and Al-Qaeda-affiliated groups such as Jabhat al Nusra (JN), Ahl al Sham, Mujahideen
Shura Council, and the Khorasan Group
III. Syrian opposition
IV. The Kurdish front.
Syrian Government and its allies and supporters:

The first grouping is the Bashar Al Assad government who belonged to Baath party, its allies and
its supporters, which is represented by more than thirty militant groups and brigades with
approximately 250,000 fighters. It is known that about 10,000 foreign fighters in support of the
Syrian government are from the Lebanese Hezbollah militant group and that a few thousand have
come from Iran.

Thus, the Syrian government and its supportive groups are the biggest force on the ground in the
Syrian war, and allegedly have armament support from Russia, Iran, China, and North Korea, and
non-lethal military support from Venezuela. This grouping newly emerged as a winner in the
Syrian conflict in 2014, especially as the Islamist terrorist groups in the forefront, ISIS and JN,
were weakened due to airstrikes by the U.S.-led coalition.

The Bashar Al Assad government has been able to extend its boundary to the borders of Turkey
once again, while in 2013 the country’s borders had effectively pushed inward as the government
lost control of Syrian territory near the Turkish border.

Radical Opposition:

The second grouping in Syria’s raging war is ISIS and the Al Qaeda-affiliated jihadist terrorist
groups. The groups in this category never fight with each other, and sometimes make alliances
against other groups. The key strength of these groups is the continuous flow of experienced,
highly radicalized, and determined foreign fighters that join them, substantially augmenting the
operational capacity of the groups.

Approximately 60,000 fighters are believed to have joined ISIS and JN, and at least 15 percent of
them are believed to be foreign fighters. However, ISIS and JN are deemed to be on the decline
due to the U.S.-led coalition attacks on their strongholds and training camps, as well as due to
the increased control of border crossings, which has diminished the recruitment of foreign
fighters. Nonetheless, these groups continue to carry out offensive operations in an effort to
prove their might and to attract new fighters, and in such cases, the groups are able to gain some
ground.
For example, the JN capture of key army bases of the north-western province of Idlib, with a huge
amount of weapons, in mid-December 2014, is a great danger to the Idlib city Centre and
threatens government control of the area. The Islamist terrorist groups purportedly have
armament support from Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Libya.

Syrian Opposition:

The third grouping in the Syrian conflict comprises the approximately 70 militant groups, small
and large, of “Syria’s opposition.” This front has in total about 50,000 fighters. Backed by Western
states, the groups belonging to this front is the most varying and uncoordinated.

This grouping is undergoing internal disorder, as each group has its own leader and its own
program, and thus lacks direction and centralized decision-making. The views of the groups are
so discordant that the only factor which places them under one umbrella is their common
opposition to the Bashar Al Assad government.

Kurdish Front:

The fourth main grouping in Syria is the Kurdish front. Constituted and organized in early 2012,
this front almost immediately constructed the necessary political, economic, and security
infrastructure in areas under its control known as ‘Rojava,’ which consists of the Jazira, Kobane,
and Afrin cantons in northern Syria, as well as established an armed forces named the People’s
Protection Units (YPG) the total number of fighters being about 50,000. This front is an alliance
between some of the Syrian Kurdish groups which claim self-rule over the Kurdish populated
areas of northern Syria, and are opposed to Syrian President Bashar Al Assad. The cantons under
the control of the Kurdish front are also inhabited by other ethnic groups such as Arabs, Assyrians,
Chechens, and other groups. The Kurdish front has been fighting against ISIS since its
establishment. It was engaged in intense fighting for more than three months after the first ISIS
attack on the town of Kobane on 16 September 2014, which was aimed at capturing Kobane and
breaking the Kurdish resistance in the area.
Reasons of civil War:

There were poverty, human right violation and political repression- Sunnis. Lack of freedoms and
economic woes drove resentment of Syrian government, harsh crack down on protesters
inflamed public anger. The biggest cause was Arab Spring. In 2011, the successful uprising, known
as Arab Spring, toppled Tunisia’s and Egypt’s presidents. This gave hope to Syrian prodemocracy
activist. The brand of Arab Spring in Syria witnessed divided loyalties. People were either with
Assad or against Assad. This opposite rallies aggravated the situation and caused civil war in Syria.
Non-state actor and terrorist elements also aggravated the situation. The provision of training,
equipment and weapons to the rebels groups had contributed in the Syrian civil war. In March
2011, peaceful protests erupted in Syria as well, after 15 were detained and tortured for graffiti
in support of Arab Spring. One of the boys, a 13 old was killed after having been brutally tortured.

The Syrian government, led by the President Bashar ul Assad, responded to the protests by
killings of hundreds of demonstrators and imprisoning many more. While the protests of 2011
were mostly sectarian, the armed conflict surfaced starker sectarian divisions. Most Syrian are
Sunni Muslims, but Syria’s security establishment has long been dominated by members of Alawi
Sect, of which Assad is member.

Even global warming is said to have played a role in sparking the 2011 uprising. Severe drought
plagued Syria from 2007-10, causing as many as 1.5 million people to migrate from the
countryside into the cities, aggravating poverty and social unrest. In 2007 protest started against
government. Police and army fire over protestors. Protestors took arms and shoot back at police
worsening the situation. In summer of 2011 many people resigned from Army and joined Free
Syrian Army.

International Involvement:

United States of America:

The US wanted to break the Iranian chain of regional influence, maintain its regional influence to
ensure Israel's security and, above all, maintain its status as the world's sole super power. When
the civil war started US imposed sanctions against Assad and six other senior Syrian official. The
treasury department details the sanctions by sayings, “As a result of this action, any property in
the United States or in the possession or control of the US person in which individuals listed in
the Annex have an interest is blocked, and US persons are generally prohibited from engaging in
transactions with them.”

On August 18, 2011 US imposed new economic sanctions on Syria, freezing Syrian government
assets in the US, barring Americans from making new investment in the country and prohibiting
any US transactions relating to Syrian petroleum products, among other things.

On February 6, 2012 United States closes its embassy in Damascus and recalled its diplomats.
April 25, 2013 US secretary of defense announces the United States has evidence that the
chemical weapon sarin has been used in Syria on small scale. Resident Barack Obama says that
Syria has crossed a “red-line” with its use of chemical weapons against rebels. In 2013, the CIA
began a covert programme to arm, fund and train rebel groups opposing Assad, but programme
later shut down after it was revealed that CIA had spent $500m but only trained 60 fighters.

The purpose of US was to root out ISIS. For this purpose, United States and its allies launch an
airstrike against ISIS targets in Syria, focusing on the city of Raqqa when ISIS launched an assault
on kobane.

When Donald Trump assumed the office he announced that he is removing American soldiers
from Syria because their sole purpose was to defeat ISIS and they have accomplished that
purpose. But on 4 April, 2017 the regime launched chemical attack in Khan Shaykun, Idlib.
President Trump responded immediately because according to him, Syria has cross many many
lines beyond red line by killing innocent babies. US launched Missile from ship on Syrian airbase.
And US decides to arms the YPG (popular protection unit). These fight alongside the main
opposition on Syrian Democratic Force which capture Tabqa dam from ISIS. US shoot down Syrian
fighter jet near Raqqa after it allegedly drop bomb near US-backed rebel SDF.

Trump made statements often that he wants his troop back. He said we have done a great job in
Syria and defeated ISIS 100 percent. Now they will not fight Syrian war because its sand and its
death there. In October 2019 he pulled his troops from northern Syria. Russian troop took over
the control immediately. Republicans criticized him. On the question of Kurds he said that we
never agreed to protect Kurds in Syria forever. Some of US troops are still in Syria upon which
trump said that we are here to protect oil in east Syria.

Russia:

Russia and Syria had always been strong allies in all major realm building bridges between soft
and hard powers. Syria is important for Russia because of trading, political and other reasons
which included to stop the propagation of terrorism within Russian zone of influence. But Russian
support to regime was mostly logistical and political. It is the state which make the bid for no-
military intervention in Syria. But when regime launched chemical attack in Ghouta. Russia
convinced Assad to dismantle chemical weapons. Russia succeeded and OPCW (organization for
prohibition of Chemical Weapons) dismantle chemicals weapons of Syria for which it won Noble
Peace prize of 2013. Through Syrian crisis Russia got a chance to involve in the Middle Eastern
politics. Because its Syrian crisis on which the fate of whole Middle East depends.

Russia’s direct military intervention is marked in 2015 when US launch strikes against Assad on
humanitarian basis. Russia is the most loyal foreign friend of Syria because it also vetoed
resolution passed by UN against Assad regime.

Russia wants US to leave Syria and has markedly reported that US presence in Syria is illegal. As
the United States withdraws from Syria, Russia is stepping in, running patrols to separate warring
factions, striking deals and helping President Bashar al-Assad advance. US withdrawal is
considered a great gift for Syria. Because Moscow perceives U.S. President Donald Trump’s
abandonment of Syria as a victory that adds greatly to its political capital. It could also allow
Moscow to reach out to European leaders in France and Germany, as well as the European
Union’s foreign-policy chief, by persuading them to embrace their own version of a political
settlement. Now Russia is main party to resolve the conflict.

Turkey

Turkey is anti-Assad. It had very strong and monochromatic policy towards the Syrian crisis. It
helps the rebel groups to gain control and power and to topple Assad regime while at the same
time hitting ISIS for security purpose in the region. It was quick to join other states who were not
pro-Assad and also in supplying armaments to rebel forces. It also formed the Syrian nation
council in 2011 with the aim of getting rid of Assad regime.

After civil war started, a lot of people migrated from Syria creating refuge crisis. Turkey was also
effected by the refugees.

Kurdish factor:

Kurds is a large ethnic minority. After WW-I Kurds were left without a state of their own. They
end up spreading across Turkey, Syria, Iran and Iraq. As an ethnic community in these areas, Kurds
faced depression. As a result, a militant group, the Kurdistan militant party (PKK), emerged to
protect the Kurds and demanded for the independent state for Kurds in Turkey. It now calls for
greater autonomy in in the country. In the 1980, a violent conflict ensued between Turkish state
and the PKK. PKK still regularly attacks Turkish security forces. Ankara, EU and U.S. call PKK as
terrorist group. They also established YPG (people protection unit) and later joined Syrian
democratic force. YPG receives US training and aid in the form arms, air support and intelligence.
Before the uprising against Mr.Assad began in 2011 most Kurds lived in the cities of Damascus
and Aleppo, and in three northern area near Turkish border- Afrin in the west, Kobane in the
centre, and Qamishli in the east.

Turkish attack on Syria

Turkey had long threatened to launch an operation in SDF-held territory to create a 32 km deep
“safe zone” running for 480km along the Syrian side of the border. The second aim of the Turkey
is to push away YPG from its border.

On June 20, 2018 turkey launches operation olive branch on the ground that it’s for the security
of the Turkey. Turkey also claim that it is fighting against ISIL, even this group does not exist in
Afrin.

U.S. urged turkey to exercise restraints and will maintain a military presence in the region with
Kurds for unforeseeable future. This thing urged anger in Turkish leadership. EU also warns turkey
that its offense can undermine Geneva peace talks. Russia has pulled back troops from Afrin but
has recently firmed up its ties with the YPG, while Turkey has struck defense and trade deals with
Russia.

When U.S withdrew its forces from Syria. It give green signal to the turkey. Turkish forces
immediately launched attack on Kurds who were the allies of U.S. U.S changes its policy on this
matter frequently. First trump tweeted that whoever wants to fight for Kurds is friend whether
it’s Russia or China or Napoleon Bonaparte. Then he said he will destroy turkey’s economy. Then
he tweeted that he had left the fate of Kurds with the Bashar ul Assad to whom he called “our
enemy” in the same breath. He held the opinion that Kurds didn’t fight with us in WW-II. They
fight for their land. He also said that US would not intervene in border issue of Turkey. And also
call former US allies Kurds “no angel.”

Russia is playing a role in settling the issue by arranging peace talks because he is now the sole
problem solver in the region.

Peace talks:

March 2012: Six-point peace plan

 Kofi Annan submitted on March 16 a six-point peace plan to the UN Security Council.

 It also called on all parties to stop the fighting and work with the UN in an “inclusive
Syrian-led political process” to install an effective international supervision mechanism.

June 2012: Geneva I

 Based on Annan's peace plan, US and Russia officials, along with other major powers,
meet in Geneva, Switzerland and agree on a road map for peace, known as the Geneva
Communique.

 The document envisions the establishment of a transitional governing body with full
executive powers that would oversee elections and put the country on the path to
democracy.
January 2013: Assad’s proposed peace plan

 The Syrian president offers his own peace plan that includes a national reconciliation
conference, a new government and constitution.

 The Syrian opposition rejects the peace initiative.

January 2014: Geneva II

 Talks collapse as UN fails to break the deadlock between the opposition and the
government.

 The UN blames the Syrian government’s refusal to entertain the opposition’s demands.

November 2015: Vienna agreement

 All 20 members of the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) meet in Vienna and
produce an agreement on the need to bring the Syrian government and the opposition to
the negotiating table under UN auspices.

 Members affirm their commitment to enforcing the 2012 Geneva Communique for
political transition and a nationwide ceasefire.

December 2015: UNSC adopts resolution 2254

 The document becomes the basis for negotiations and serves as a framework for political
transition

 2254 outlines the UN's support for a Syrian-led political process that "establishes credible,
inclusive and non-sectarian governance and sets a schedule and process for drafting a
new constitution" within six months.
  The resolution also recommends "free and fair elections, pursuant to the new
constitution, to be held within 18 months" under UN supervision.

February 2016: Geneva III

 Talks are suspended after three days following disagreements between the opposition and
the government over the priority of humanitarian issues such as releasing prisoners.

April 2016: Geneva IV

 Syrian opposition walks out over the escalation in violence on the ground, lack of progress
on humanitarian and prisoner issues.

December 2016: Russia-Turkey ceasefire

 Turkey and Russia broker a nation-wide ceasefire that is agreed upon by the Syrian
government and the armed opposition.

January 2017: Astana I

 The talk’s sponsors, Russia, Turkey and Iran, agree to set up a trilateral monitoring body
to enforce the ceasefire, which took effect on December 30.

 Representatives of the armed opposition sit face-to-face with a government delegation

for the first time.

 Neither the opposition nor the government delegation sign the agreement.

February 2017: Astana II

 Ends with the adoption of a document to formalize monitoring of the December ceasefire
  Parties also agree to continue discussions of a mechanism to exchange corpses and
prisoners, including women and children.

Geneva V

 De Mistura says warring sides agree to future negotiations based on UNSC 2254, which
lays the foundation for a political transition based on accountable governance, a new
constitution and UN-supervised elections within 18 months.

March 2017: Astana III

 Opposition refuses to attend talks, accuses government of failing to uphold the ceasefire
declared in December.

May 2017: Astana IV

 Russia, Turkey and Iran agree on plan for "de-escalation zones" in rebel-held territory.

 The plan calls for the cessation of hostilities between government and opposition fighters
in four safe zones to bring relief for Syrian civilians.

 Opposition delegation suspends their participation citing government bombardment of

rebel-held areas.

Geneva VI

 Talks collapse after four days with no detailed discussions of items on the agenda.
July 2017: Astana V

 Russia, Turkey and Iran fail to hammer out details over boundaries and the policing of the
four safe zones previously agreed.

Geneva VII

 Talks conclude with no breakthrough

 UN says Syrian government not willing to discuss political transition

September 2017: Astana VI

 Russia, Turkey and Iran agree to set up de-escalation zones in Syria for six months, which
may be extended in the future.

 The zones will include, fully or partly, Eastern Ghouta, the provinces of Idlib, Homs,
Latakia, Aleppo and Hama.

Sochi talks

After 9 October, when turkey launched attack against Kurds, talks were held between Russian
president Vildamir Putin and Turkish president Tayyip Erdogan in Sochi. They agreed to push back
Kurds from Safe zone along the Turkey Syria border.

In these talks, presidents of both countries agreed on following points;

 The two sides restate their commitment to the preservation of the political unity and
territorial integrity of Syria and the protection of national security of the Turkey.
 They emphasize their determination to combat terrorism in all forms and manifestation
and to disrupt separatist agendas in the Syrian territory.
  In this framework, the established status quo in the current operation peace spring area
will be preserved.
 Both side reaffirm the importance of Adana agreement. The Russian federation will
facilitate the implementation of Adana agreement in the current circumstances.
 Starting 12:00 noon of October 23, 2019,Russian military police and Syrian border guards
will enter the Syrian side of Turkish- Syrian border, outside the area of Operation peace
spring, to facilitate the removal of YPG elements and their weapons to the depth of 30km
from the Turkish-Syrian border.
 All YPG elements and their weapon will be removed from manbij and Tal Rifat.
 Both sides will take necessary measures to prevent infiltration of terrorist elements.
 Joint effort will be launched to facilitate the return of refugees in a safe and volunteer
manner.
 A joint monitoring and verification mechanism will be established to oversee and
coordinate the implementation of this memorandum.
 The two sides will continue to work to find a lasting political solution to the Syrian
conflict within the Astana mechanism and will support the activity of the Constitutional
Committee.

Conclusion:
Syria’s conflict is a critical one. Every State is working for the interest of their own. Syria is very
important strategically without which peace cannot be achieved in Middle East. Every state is
working in Syria for their own interests. US changes its policy frequently toward Syria. Russia is
trying to fill the place left by the USA. It’s the sole problem solver in Syria. Turkey’s foreign policy
can be summed up in two phases. In first phase from 2002 to 2011, the relation between two
reached at the stage of strategic alliance. The problem got resolved between two up to some
extent but in case of conflict it is assumed that problem will rise again. From 2011 to till now
turkey is being aggressive toward Syria. It wants to topple the regime of Bashar ul Assad. It has
become pro-west. But Syrian crisis proved that Turkey cannot work in Syria away from the
calculations of regional and international powers.
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