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Jindal Steel & Power
Jindal Steel & Power
Jindal Steel & Power
Steel in‐line, power ahead of expectation
October 27, 2010 Steel business matches forecast; Jindal Power (JPL) surpasses expectations:
Q2FY11 Result Update
Jindal Steel & Power (JSPL) reported PAT of Rs4.78bn on a standalone level, in‐
Kamlesh Bagmar line with PLe of Rs4.7bn. JSPL’s standalone EBITDA stood at Rs8.52bn, marginally
kamleshbagmar@plindia.com ahead of PLe of Rs8.4bn. JPL reported PAT of Rs4.59bn, significantly ahead of
+91‐22‐66322237 PLe of Rs3.77bn, on the back of better‐than‐expected volumes at 1.77 units
(PLe:1.72m), higher realisations at Rs4.45/unit (PLe: 4.3/unit) and lower‐than‐
expected cost of generation at Rs0.75/unit (PLe:Rs0.95/unit).
Growth in steel volumes led to QoQ earnings growth: JSPL’s steel volumes
Rating Reduce grew by 15% QoQ to 0.57m tonnes (including metallics) on the back of strong
Price Rs691 demand for semis and flat products. Benefitted by higher volumes and flexible
Target Price Rs639 product mix, EBITDA grew by 8% QoQ despite Rs1,300 cut in realisations (excl.
Implied Upside ‐7.5% metallics) and flat iron ore + pellet sales volumes at 573k tonnes against 573k
Sensex 20,005 tonnes QoQ.
(Prices as on October 27, 2010) Capex update: JSPL commissioned its Unit‐I of 135MW at Raigarh during
September 2010, while Unit‐II of 135MW is expected to be commissioned
Trading data during November 2010. Commissioning of the rest of the units at Raigarh
Market Cap. (Rs bn) 640.7 (135MW*2) and Angul (8*135MW) remains on track.
Shares o/s (m) 927.9
3M Avg. Daily value (Rs m) 1105.7
Valuation: Backed by well‐integrated steel operations, flexible product mix and
investments in high‐yielding merchant power business, JSPL possesses best
earnings quality in the entire sector along with high return ratios. Nevertheless,
we believe that all these positives are very much factored in the current
Major shareholders
valuations. Based on SOTP valuation, we value the stock at Rs639 by valuing
Promoters 58.42%
steel business at EV/EBITDA of 7.5x FY12E and power business on DCF basis. We
Foreign 23.72%
maintain ‘Reduce’ on the stock.
Domestic Inst. 2.50%
Public & Other 15.36% Key financials (MarchY/e March) 2009 2010 2011E 2012E
Revenues (Rs m) 108,510 110,915 133,413 158,743
Growth (%) 97.7 2.2 20.3 19.0
Stock Performance EBITDA (Rs m) 53,126 58,583 68,612 81,943
(%) 1M 6M 12M PAT (Rs m) 30,478 37,239 43,075 50,864
Absolute (1.2) (7.5) 1.8
EPS (Rs) 32.9 40.1 46.4 54.8
Relative (0.7) (20.6) (20.5)
Growth (%) 138.5 22.1 15.7 18.1
Net DPS (Rs) 0.9 1.3 1.6 2.3
Price Performance (RIC: JNSP.BO, BB: JSP IN) Source: Company Data; PL Research
(Rs)
Profitability & Valuation 2009 2010 2011E 2012E
800
700 EBITDA margin (%) 49.0 52.8 51.4 51.6
600
RoE (%) 55.9 42.6 34.5 30.0
500
400 RoCE (%) 26.1 23.9 18.8 16.6
300 EV / sales (x) 6.7 6.7 5.8 4.8
200
100
EV / EBITDA (x) 13.7 12.6 11.3 9.4
0 PE (x) 21.5 17.6 15.2 12.9
Feb-10
Aug-10
Dec-09
Apr-10
Oct-09
Jun-10
Oct-10
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. and/or its associates (the 'Firm') does and/or seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result investors should be aware that
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Please refer to important disclosures and disclaimers at the end of the report
Jindal Steel & Power
Q2FY11 Result Overview (Rs m)
Y/e March Q2FY11 Q2FY10 YoY gr. (%) Q1FY11 H1FY11 H1FY10 YoY gr. (%)
Net Sales 22,955 15,965 43.8 21,189 44,143 31,722 39.2
Raw Material 6,223 4,294 44.9 6,146 12,368 9,177 34.8
% of Net Sales 27.1 26.9 29.0 28.0 28.9
Staff Costs 694 498 39.2 617 1,311 984 33.2
% of Net Sales 3.0 3.1 2.9 3.0 3.1
Power & Fuel 1,521 1,382 10.1 1,151 2,672 2,896 (7.7)
% of Net Sales 6.6 8.7 5.4 6.1 9.1
Stores and spares 2,780 1,937 43.5 2,280 5,059 3,763 34.4
% of Net Sales 12.1 12.1 10.8 11.5 11.9
Other Expenses 3,219 2,359 36.5 3,109 6,328 3,823 65.5
% of Net Sales 14.0 14.8 14.7 14.3 12.1
Total Expenditure 14,436 10,469 37.9 13,303 27,739 20,643 34.4
EBITDA 8,519 5,496 55.0 7,886 16,405 11,079 48.1
Margin (%) 37.1 34.4 37.2 37.2 34.9
Depreciation 1,638 1,270 28.9 1,475 3,112 2,499 24.5
Other income 101 222 (54.3) 89 191 391 (51.2)
EBIT 6,983 4,448 57.0 6,501 13,483 8,971 50.3
Interest 781 545 43.2 742 1,522 873 74.4
PBT 6,202 3,903 58.9 5,759 11,961 8,099 47.7
Tax 1,420 853 66.6 1,402 2,822 2,048 37.8
% PBT 22.9 21.8 24.3 23.6 25.3
Reported PAT 4,782 3,050 56.8 4,357 9,139 6,051 51.0
Adjusted PAT 4,782 3,050 56.8 4,357 9,139 6,051 51.0
Source: Company Data, PL Research
Operating Parameters
Y/e March Q2FY11 Q2FY10 YoY gr. (%) Q1FY11 H1FY11 H1FY10 YoY gr. (%)
Sales (Tonnes)
Metallics 106,500 136,341 (21.9) 89,995 196,495 253,207 (22.4)
Steel products 462,429 404,322 14.4 403,814 866,243 824,799 5.0
Total steel volume 568,929 540,663 5.2 493,809 1,062,738 1,078,006 (1.4)
Power (m units) 180 227 (20.7) 190 370 606 (39.0)
Performance of Jindal Power Ltd
Gross power generation (m units) 1,972 1,851 6.5 2,210 4,182 3,947 6.0
Revenue (Rs m) 7,856 8,911 (11.8) 9,276 17,132 21,046 (18.6)
PAT (Rs m) 4,590 5,147 (10.8) 5,600 10,190 12,150 (16.1)
Source: Company Data, PL Research
October 27, 2010 2
Jindal Steel & Power
Income Statement (Rs m) Balance Sheet Abstract (Rs m)
Y/e March 2009 2010 2011E 2012E Y/e March 2009 2010 2011E 2012E
Net Revenue 108,510 110,915
133,413 158,743 Shareholders Funds 70,515 104,168 145,520 193,841
Raw Material Expenses 55,384 52,333
64,801 76,800 Total Debt 81,133 86,043 146,355 159,926
Gross Profit 53,126 58,583 68,612 81,943 Other Liabilities 7,215 10,114 12,444 15,461
Employee Cost — — — — Total Liabilities 158,863 200,325 304,318 369,228
Other Expenses — — — — Net Fixed Assets 126,863 178,444 243,267 288,330
EBITDA 53,126 58,583 68,612 81,943 Goodwill 363 1,007 1,007 1,007
Depr. & Amortization 9,641 9,970 10,381 12,241 Investments 1,613 2,630 2,630 2,630
Net Interest 5,166 4,508 4,730 5,533 Net Current Assets 29,992 18,166 57,337 77,184
Other Income (209) 1,430 2,695 2,925 Cash & Equivalents 10,219 1,683 28,389 47,013
Profit before Tax 38,111 45,535 56,196 67,094 Other Current Assets 53,967 67,383 89,435 111,117
Total Tax 8,040 9,189 12,564 15,657 Current Liabilities 34,194 50,900 60,488 80,946
Profit after Tax 30,072 36,346 43,632 51,437 Other Assets 31 78 78 78
Ex‐Od items / Min. Int. 406 893 (557) (572) Total Assets 158,863 200,325 304,318 369,228
Adj. PAT 30,478 37,239 43,075 50,864
Avg. Shares O/S (m) 927.1 927.9 927.9 927.9
EPS (Rs.) 32.9 40.1 46.4 54.8
Cash Flow Abstract (Rs m) Quarterly Financials (Rs m)
Y/Marche March 2009 2010 2011E 2012E Y/e March Q3FY10 Q4FY10 Q1FY11 Q2FY11
C/F from Operations 38,787 55,747 47,428 69,502 Net Revenue 17,576 23,888 21,189 22,955
C/F from Investing (38,520) (64,326) (75,092) (57,193) EBITDA 6,071 7,784 7,886 8,519
C/F from Financing 220 3,013 54,371 6,316 % of revenue 34.5 32.6 37.2 37.1
Inc. / Dec. in Cash 487 (5,566) 26,706 18,624 Depr. & Amortization 1,310 1,313 1,475 1,638
Opening Cash 6,207 6,694 1,128 27,834 Net Interest 691 836 742 781
Closing Cash 6,694 1,128 27,834 46,458 Other Income 288 984 89 101
FCFF (8,621) 35,597 8,427 31,766 Profit before Tax 4,358 6,619 5,759 6,202
FCFE 2,551 40,507 68,739 45,337 Total Tax 1,101 1,129 1,402 1,420
Profit after Tax 3,256 5,490 4,357 4,782
Adj. PAT 3,256 5,490 4,357 4,782
Key Financial MetricMarchs Key Operating Metrics
Y/e March 2009 2010 2011E 2012E Y/e March 2009 2010 2011E 2012E
Growth Standalone operations
Revenue (%) 97.7 2.2 20.3 19.0 Metallics‐Sales (Tonnes) 666,002.0 588,562.0 147,200.0 27,500.0
EBITDA (%) 125.5 10.3 17.1 19.4 Steel products‐Sales (Tonnes) 1,515,280.0 1,716,401.0 2,379,666.7 2,450,250.0
PAT (%) 139.4 22.2 15.7 18.1 Realisation per tonne of Steel 33,674.6 26,427.9 31,453.3 32,422.6
EPS (%) 138.5 22.1 15.7 18.1 Power (m units) 1,124.5 1,552.0 1,591.3 7,840.2
Profitability Realisation per unit of Power 2.4 2.4 2.5 3.0
EBITDA Margin (%) 49.0 52.8 51.4 51.6
PAT Margin (%) 28.1 33.6 32.3 32.0 Jindal Power Ltd
RoCE (%) 26.1 23.9 18.8 16.6 JPL‐Units sold (m units) 5,725.7 7,451.0 7,413.6 7,174.4
RoE (%) 55.9 42.6 34.5 30.0 Rate per Kwh 5.7 5.3 4.6 4.6
Balance Sheet JPL‐Revenue (Rs m) 32,574.8 39,219.0 34,102.5 33,002.4
Net Debt : Equity 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.6 JPL‐PAT (Rs m) 15,819.3 23,188.0 19,091.0 19,520.8
Net Wrkng Cap. (days) (43) (87) (20) (28)
Valuation
PER (x) 21.5 17.6 15.2 12.9
P / B (x) 9.3 6.3 4.5 3.4
EV / EBITDA (x) 13.7 12.6 11.3 9.4
EV / Sales (x) 6.7 6.7 5.8 4.8
Earnings Quality
Eff. Tax Rate 21.1 20.2 22.4 23.3
Other Inc / PBT 3.1 3.4 4.8 4.4 Source: Company Data, PL Research.
Eff. Depr. Rate (%) 8.3 7.6 6.3 6.3
FCFE / PAT 8.4 108.8 159.6 89.1
Source: Company Data, PL Research.
October 27, 2010 3
Jindal Steel & Power
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3rd Floor, Sadhana House, 570, P. B. Marg, Worli, Mumbai‐400 018, India
Tel: (91 22) 6632 2222 Fax: (91 22) 6632 2209
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60%
% of Total Coverage
50%
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20%
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0%
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October 27, 2010 4