Analysis of Precipitation

Data
 Point Data Analysis
Point precipitation data refers to precipitation
of a station. This data could be in form of
hourly record, daily record, monthly
precipitation or annual precipitation.
Depending upon the nature of catchment and
its area, there could be as many gauging
stations as feasible.
 Before using rainfall data, it is necessary to check the
data for continuing and consistency
 Missing data
 Record errors
Estimation of Missing Precipitation Record
Some precipitation stations may have short
breaks in the records because of absence of
the observer or because of instrumental
failures. In the procedure used by the U. S.
Weather Bureau, the missing precipitation
of a station is estimated from the
observations of precipitations at some other
stations as close to and as evenly spaced
around the station with the missing record
as possible.
 Estimation of Missing Precipitation Record
 Methods for estimating missing data
1. Arithmetic Mean Method
2. Normal Ratio Method
 The station whose data is missing is called
interpolation station and gauging stations whose
data are used to calculate the missing station data are
called index stations.
 If the normal annual precipitation (mean of 30
years of annual precipitation) of the index stations
lies within ±10% of normal annual precipitation of
interpolation station then we apply arithmetic mean
method to determine the missing precipitation record
otherwise the normal ratio method is used for this
purpose.
 Estimation of Missing Precipitation Record
Consider that record is missing from a station ‘X’.
Now let,
N = Normal annual precipitation
P = Storm Precipitation
Let Px be the missing precipitation for station ‘X’
and ‘Nx , the normal annual precipitation of this
station, Na , Nb , and Nc are normal annual
precipitation of nearby three stations, A, B and C
respectively while Pa , Pb and Pc are the storm
precipitation of that period for these stations.
 Estimation of Missing Precipitation Record
Now we have to compare Nx with Na , Nb and
Nc separately. If difference of Nx - Na , Nx –
Nb , and Nx – Nc is within ±10% of Nx , then
we use simple arithmetic means method
otherwise the normal ratio method is used.
 Simple Arithmetic Mean Method
• Select rain gauge index stations (e.g. 1, 2
& 3) as close to and as evenly spaced
around the station with the missing
record (i.e. Station X)
 Collection of rainfall data for these
stations on the day for which data at
station X is missing
 Normal annual rainfall at all these
stations should also be collected.
 Simple Arithmetic Mean Method
According to the arithmetic mean method the
missing precipitation ‘Px’ is given as:

In case of three stations 1, 2 and 3,

P1  P2  P3
Px 
3
 Normal Ratio Method
 If average annual rainfall at each of these three
index stations differs more than 10% of average
annual rainfall of station X, then normal ratio
method is applicable.
1  Nx Nx Nx 
Px   P1  P2  P3 
3  N1 N2 N3 

 Where P1, P2, P3 & Px represent respective

rainfall data at stations 1, 2, 3, and X respectively
of the day for which data is missing at station X,
and N1, N2, N3 & Nx represent their respective
normal annual rainfalls.
 Example
Example 3.2
Find out the missing storm precipitation of station ‘C’
given in the following table:
Station A B C D E
Storm precipitation (cm) 9.7 8.3 --- 11.7 8.0
Normal Annual precipitation (cm) 100.3 109.5 93.5 125.7 117.5

Solution:
10% of Nc = 93.5 x 10/100 = 9.35
±10% Range of Nc= 84.15 to 102.85 (Values of Nb , Nd and Ne
are out of this range, hence normal mean method
applicable)
 1  Nx Nx Nx Nx 

Px   P1  P2  P3  P4 
4  N1 N2 N3 N4 

Pc = (1/4) (9.7 x 93.5/100.3 + 8.3 x 93.5/109.5 +

11.7 x 93.5/125.7 + 8.0 x 93.5/117.5) = 7.8 cm.
 Example
Example 3.3:
Precipitation station “X” was inoperative for part of a
month during which a storm occurred. The storm
totals at three surrounding stations A, B and C were
respectively 10.7, 8.9 and 12.2 cm. The normal annual
precipitation amounts at stations X, A, B and C are
respectively 97.8, 112, 93.5 and 119.9 cm. Estimate the
storm precipitation for station “X”.
 Example
Solution:
Pa = 10.7 cm Na = 112 cm
Pb = 8.90 cm Nb = 93.5 cm
Pc = 12.2 cm Nc = 119.9 cm
Px = ? Nx = 97.8 cm
10% of Nx = 97.8 x 10/100 = 9.78 cm
Nx – Na = 97.8 – 112 = -14.2 cm (more than +10% of Nx,
therefore no need to calculate Nx – Nb and Nx – Nc )
So we will use Normal Ratio Method.
Px = (1/3) (10.7 x 97.8/112 + 8.90 x 97.8/93.5 + 12.2 x
97.8/119.9) = 9.5 cm.
 Consistency of Precipitation Data or
Double Mass Analysis
Some of the common causes for inconsistency of
record are:
(i) shifting of a rain gauge station to a new
location,
(ii) the neighborhoods of the station undergoing
a marked change,
(iii) change in the ecosystem due to calamities,
such as forest fires, land slides, and
(iv) occurrence of observational error from a
certain date
14
 Test for Consistency of Record
ΣP in
Accumulated Annual Rainfall at x

Mc
units of 103 cm

Pcx  Px
Ma

Accumulated Annual Rainfall of 10 station Mean

ΣP in units of l03 cm 15
 Double-mass curve technique
 The checking for inconsistency of a
record is done by the double-mass
curve technique. This technique is
based on the principle that when each
recorded data comes from the same
parent population, they are consistent.
 Test for consistency record
(Double mass curve techniques)

• Let a group of 5 to 10 base stations in the neighbourhood of the

problem station X is selected
• Arrange the data of X station rainfall and the average of the
neighbouring stations in reverse chronological order (from
recent to old record)
• Accumulate the precipitation of station X  Px  and the
average values of the group base stations  Pavg  starting from
the latest record.
• Plot the  Px  against  Pavg  as shown on the next figure
• A decided break in the slope of the resulting plot is observed
that indicates a change in precipitation regime of station X, i.e
inconsistency.
• Therefore, is should be corrected by the factor shown on the
next slide
 Test for consistency record….
Double Mass Curve Analysis

5
accumulated annual rainfall of X stn in 10^3 cm

4.5

3.5
Mc c
3
c
a

2.5 Ma a
2

1.5

0.5

0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Accumulated annual rainfall of neigbouring stns in 10^3 cm

Pcx – corrected precipitation at any time period t1 at stationX

M
Pcx  Px c P – Original recorded precp. at time period t at station X
x 1

M a
Mc – corrected slope of the double mass curve
Ma – original slope of the mass curve
 Table 3.1 Precipitation Data
Year Annual Precipitation at x Mean of annual YEAR Annual Precipitation at x Mean of annual
(mm) precipitation of 20 (mm) precipitation of 20
surrounding stations (mm) surrounding stations
(mm)

1972 188 264 1954 223 360

1971 185 228 1953 173 234
1970 310 386 1952 282 333
1969 295 297 1951 218 236
1968 208 284 1950 246 251
1967 287 350 1949 284 284
1966 183 236 1948 493 361
1965 304 371 1947 320 282
1964 228 234 1946 274 252
1963 216 290 1945 322 274
1962 224 282 1944 437 302
1961 203 246 1943 389 350
1960 284 264 1942 305 228
1959 295 332 1941 320 312
1958 206 231 1940 328 284
1957 269 234 1939 308 315
1956 241 231 1938 302 280
1955 284 312 1937 414 343
Solution
A double mass curve is plotted by taking cumulative of average
precipitation of surrounding stations along x-axis and
accumulative precipitation of station ‘X’ along
y-axis for which consistency of data is being investigated. The
double mass curve is shown in Figure 3.1

12000
10000
8000 Sa/S0=0.7
6000
S0=1.176
4000
2000 Sa=0.854

0
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000

Figure 3.5 Double Mass Curve

Slope of Ist line = Sa = 0.854
Slope of deviating line = So = 1.176
Correction to values (multiplying factor) =
0.854/1.176 = 0.70
Year
Table 3.2 Adjusted Precipitation
Cumulative Annual precipitation at x(mm) Cumulative precipitation of 20 surrounding stations (mm) Corrected Precipitation Remarks

No Correction
1972 188 264 188
1971 373 492 185
1970 683 878 310
1969 978 1175 295
1968 1186 1459 208
1967 1473 1809 287
1966 1656 2045 183
1965 1960 2416 304
1964 2188 2650 228
1963 2404 2940 216
1962 2628 3222 224
1961 2831 3468 203
1960 3115 3732 284
1959 3410 4064 295
1958 3616 4295 206
1957 3885 4529 269
1956 4126 4760 241
1955 4410 5072 284
1954 4633 5432 223
1953 4806 5666 173
1952 5088 5999 282
1951 5306 6235 218
1950 5552 6486 246
1949 5836 6770 198.8

1948 6329 7131 345.1

1947 6649 7413 224

Precipitation of station of "X" x 0.7

1946 6923 7665 191.8
1945 7245 7939 225.4
1944 7682 8241 305.9
1943 8071 8591 272.3
1942 8376 8819 213.5
1941 8696 9131 224
1940 9024 9415 229.6
1939 9332 9730 215.6
1938 9634 10010 211.4
1937 10048 10353 289.8
 Areal Precipitation Data Analysis
Estimation of Average Precipitation Over a
Basin
 Raingauges rainfall represent only point sampling
of the areal distribution of a storm
 The important rainfall for hydrological analysis is a
rainfall over an area, such as over the catchment
 To convert the point rainfall values at various
stations to in to average value over a catchment, the
following methods are used:
 Arithmetic Mean Method
 Thiessen Polygon Method
 Isohyetal method
 Arithmetic Mean Method

• When the area is physically and climatically

homogenous and the required accuracy is small, the
average rainfall ( P ) for a basin can be obtained as
the arithmetic mean of the hi values recorded at
various stations.
• Applicable rarely for practical purpose

P1  P2  .....  Pi  .....Pn 1 N
P 
N
 
N i 1
Pi
 Example
Example 3.5:
Six rain gauges were installed in a relatively flat
area and storm precipitation from these gauges
was recorded as 3.7, 4.9, 6.8, 11.4, 7.6 and 12.7 cm
respectively from gauges 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. Find
average precipitation over the catchment.

Solution:
P (average) = (3.7 + 4.9 + 6.8 + 11.4 + 7.6 + 12.7)/6
= 7.85 cm.
 Thiessen Polygon Method

• The method of Thiessen polygons consists of

attributing to each station an influence zone in
which it is considered that the rainfall is equivalent
to that of the station.
• The influence zones are represented by convex
polygons.
• These polygons are obtained using the mediators of
the segments which link each station to the closest
neighbouring stations
Thiessen polygons ……….
 Thiessen polygons ……….

P7
P6

A7
A6
P2

A2
A1
A8 A5
P1
P8 P5
A3 A4
P3

P4
 Thiessen polygons ……….

P1 A1  P2 A2  .....  Pm Am
P 
 A1  A2  .....  Am 
Generally for M station
M

PA i i M
Ai
P  i 1
Atotal
 
i 1
Pi
A

Ai
The ratio is called the weightage factor of station i
A
 Example
EXAMPLE 3.6
Following is shown map of a catchment
having 6 rainfall recording stations Fig. 3.6.
Find the Average Precipitation over the whole catchment.
The recorded precipitations are shown on the topographic
map of the catchment. The Thiessen’s Polygons are
constructed by the method explained above. The
precipitation and polygon area are given below.
Table 3.3 Average Precipitation by Thiessen Polygon Method

Station Precipitation P Polygon Area A PxA

(mm) (km²) (x106 m³)

Daggar 48 5,068.76 243.30

Besham 33 4,349.17 143.52

Shinkiari 25 1,399.25 34.98

Phulra 32 1,693.80 54.20

Tarbela 56 2,196.33 122.99

Oghi 30 2,234.29 67.03

Total 16,941.60 666.02

Isohyetal Method
The most accurate method of averaging
precipitation over an area is the isohyetal
method.

For estimation of average precipitation of

the catchment by isohyetal method the
following steps are used:
o Draw the map of the area according to a certain scale.
o Locate the points on map where precipitation measuring gauges are installed.
o Write the amount of precipitation for stations.
o Draw isohyets (Lines joining points of equal precipitation).
o Measure area enclosed between every two isohyets or the area enclosed by an
isohyet and boundary of the catchment.
o Find average precipitation by the formula.
P (average) = (P1 A1 + P2 A2 + ...........+ Pn An)/A
Where,
P1= Mean precipitation of two isohyets 1 and 2
A1= Area between these two isohyets.
P2 = Mean precipitation of two isohyets 2 and 3
A2 = the area b/w these two isohyets.
and, so on
Pn = Mean precipitation of isohyets n-1 and n
An = the area between these two isohyets.

It may be noted that the last and first areas mentioned above may be between an
isohyet and boundary of the catchment. In this case the precipitation at the
boundary line is required which may be extrapolated or interpolated.
 Isohyetal Method
• An isohyet is a line joining points of equal rainfall
magnitude. 10.0
8

D
6 C a5
12
9.2
12
a4
7.0 a3
4 B
7.2
A
a2 E 10.0
9.1
4.0 a1
F
8

6
4
 Isohyetal Method

• P1, P2, P3, …. , Pn – the values of the isohytes

• a1, a2, a3, …., a4 – are the inter isohytes area respectively
• A – the total catchment area
• P - the mean precipitation over the catchment

 P1  P2   P2  P3   Pn1  Pn 
a1    a2    ...  an1  
P   2   2   2 
A
NOTE

The isohyet method is superior to the other two methods

especially when the stations are large in number.
Isohyetal Method

 P1  P2   P2  P3   Pn 1  Pn 
a1    a2    .....  an 1  
P  2   2   2 
A
37
 Average / Mean Annual Rainfall
 It is simply, the average of total rainfall of
several consecutive years.
 Greater the number of years considered, more
correct will be the mean value so obtained.
 After studying rainfall records of a large number
of different places extending over many years, it
has been found that 35 years rainfall records are
required for a reliable estimate of mean annual
rainfall of any place.
Average / Mean Annual Rainfall
 Sir Alexander Binnie has shown that if available
record period is less than 35 years then there
will be error in the computed mean annual
rainfall given below:
Period (Yrs) % Error in Mean Rainfall
5 14.9
10 8.2
15 4.8
20 3.3
25 2.8
30 2.3
35 1.8