Crime Analysis and Prediction Using Data Mining – CAP a Survey
Fathima Afroz1, Rajashekara Murthy S2 , Chayadevi M.L3
1
MTech Student, Computer Science & Engg ,RVCE, Bangalore
1
karnataka.a@gmail.com
2
Asst Professor, Department of Computer Science & Engg, RVCE, Bangalore
2
rajashekaramurthys@rvce.edu.in
3
Asst Professor, Department of Information Science & Engg, JSSATE, Bangalore
3
Chayadevi1999 @gmail.com
ABSTRACT
Police department have right to use a expeditiously
volume of data, pooled with the vigorous kind and
density of criminal activities, these needs led to the
use of data mining techniques in crime record
bureaus and police stations. An experience police
official working as analyst can examine crime trends
accurately, when amount of data available is
reasonably small, but as the cases and difficulty of
crime rises quantity of facts and figures also
increases respectively. This has resulted in increase
analysis time, further humanoid mistakes are certain
to creep in, by increasing efficacy and minimizing
errors data mining techniques can enable crime
investigator to detect crime and predict its occurrence
in advance. In this paper a detailed survey of existing
tools and techniques used for crime analysis and
crime prediction is provided.
Keywords- Crime Analysis, Data mining tools, Crime
bureau.
1. INTRODUCTION
With improvement in computer technology and
emergent techniques has revolutionized the
functioning of classical and old style in most of the
public and private sector, Computerization of police
stations, record bureaus, and related units of crime
investigation department, linking division with
Internet and intranet, wifi and blue tooth
technologies, by making use of advanced software to
analyze, detect and predict crime is common in most
of the western countries which will also include time
series data with general packet radio service, and
geographic information system, can results in giving
information about hotspot, and related details.
The complexity of crime investigation is emerging at
a frequency that counterpart the variations in
technology, dynamic nature of crimes, and society as
a unit. Crime record bureaus often strive to cope with
the changes. Indian police has also elected the new
procedures and latest technologies to perform their
work. Some common software used in Indian police
department are listed in table-2,these details are
collected from the national and state crime record
bureau. Computer assisted tools helps in integrating
information and technology to utilize the resources
efficiently.
Evidences, statistics and all information about the
crime under 23 heads, subgroup, victim related
details, FIR, area details, witness details, and much
more information which are collected will be saved
in various formats, throughout the investigation and
even after that, information has to be maintained.
Information is an asset even in the police department
is used to evaluate new and emerging trends, forecast
the crime related details from the history of crimes.
Crime can define as an action or omission that
constitutes an offense that may be prosecuted by the
police and is punishable by law [1]. Or it can
considered as an act or the commission of an act that
is forbidden or the omission of a duty that is
commanded by a public law and that makes the
offender liable to punishment by that law[2].
As per the ministry of home affairs, office of the
registrar General & Census Commissioner, India
Total population of 1,220,200,000 (1.22
India in 2012 billion)
Total Male Population 628,800,000 (628.8
million)
Total Female 591,400,000 (591.4
Population million)
Sex Ratio 940 females per 1,000
males
Table-1 population statistics
The population of India is considered to generate a
crime rate based on area, how many crimes happened
in the different areas, and make prediction of the type
crimes which may occur in thickly populated area,
remote area, public places etc, Per capta crime
prediction can be made with the help of size of area,
its population and number of crime occurrences
. analysis of available information. It is
2. CRIME ANALYSIS
The main purpose of crime analysis is to provide the
data needed to investigator or police from the huge
amount of information stored in the department to
assist them in a right direction in order to prevent
crimes, and control the criminal activities which may
occur in future.
The criminal analysis is not an easy task, because to
commit any crime various parameters might have
supported, emotional imbalance, anger, jealous,
revenge, inferiority complex, ego, gain, damage
others property or name. Shortcuts to become rich,
lust etc, So to analyze the crime one must have the
knowledge about external factors, apart from the
reports, when a machine has to do this kind of
intelligent task, best suitable algorithms need to be
considered, from the literature review various
frameworks were proposed and designed which are
discussed in next section[13].
The diagram below depicts the crime analysis
process, which will take the entire data which
contains all types of crimes, in the next step only IPC
related crimes under economic category is
considered, then analysis will be narrowed for a
particular IPC section and one sub group say
cheating, finally cheating crimes related to family is
considered to arrive at the conclusion out of entire
analysis process.
Figure-1 shows the crime analysis
method.
Facing a rising crime rate, the Police Department
needed an efficient and cost-effective way to analyze
crime data, assess public safety risks and make
intelligent decisions about personnel deployment.
Deployment of a powerful predictive analytic tool
that brings data from multiple sources into one
database, discovers hidden relationships in the data,
and automatically generates crime forecasts is a
solution. According to the survey tools available in
the police department is of high cost.
Types of criminal analysis: Crime analysis remains
one of the most effective tools available to support
police department as mentioned by Deborah Osborne,
Susan Wernicke[15].
 Administrative crime analysis focuses on
providing summary data, statistics, and general
trend information to police managers.
 Investigative crime analysis involves profiling
suspects and victims for investigators based on
sometimes called “criminal investigative
analysis.”
 Intelligence analysis, at the present time,
occurs more often at the state and federal
levels. It focuses on organized crime,
terrorism, and supporting specific
investigations with information analysis and
presentation.
Police use their limited resources. To work actively,
using effective methods to control the crime activity
but - The effectiveness of the strategies must be
measureable. Reduced crime. maximum arrest rates
for serious/rare crimes.
The paper is organized into 5 sections. Section 1
describes basic information crime and analysis
section 2 includes the data mining concepts
commonly used in building crime detection and
crime analysis systems. Section 4 describes the
layout how predictive system works.
3. CRIME SURVEY
According to the literature review. One crime under
IPC is reported every seventeen seconds in India.
Crime against women every three minutes and a
molestation case is committed every 15 minutes
whereas a case of rape is committed every 29th
minutes. A case of cruelty by husband and relatives is
reported every 9th minutes, whereas a case of attempt
to murder is committed every 29 minutes. A theft
case is committed every 2 minutes and a crime
against property is committed every minute and an
economic crime is committed every 8 minutes. The
concept of intelligent and advanced policing is
quickly catching up the imagination in modern times
across the world. This includes emphasis on policing
with forecasting capability and problem solving
nature.
Fig-2 shows the analysis of crimes in Karnataka and movements and activities of inter-state and inter-
state district criminals [5]. It will keep in constant touch
with the incidence of crime and movements of
Review of software’s used in Crime Bureaus criminals in other districts. It will deal only with
India is a vast country with more than one billion active habitual criminals who commit crime against
populations, and has a police force of 2.5 million. property and whose activities extend over more than
Police is a critical component of civil administration one station [6]. It will not take up investigation of
in India. It has created its own decision making cases but will advise and offer suggestions to the
strategies to issue assigned responsibilities. Indian Investigating Officers on crime and criminals on the
constitution assigns responsibility for maintaining basis of the records maintained by it. In important
law and order to the states and territories, and almost cases of organized crime, an officer of the Bureau
all routine policing, including apprehension of may be placed at the disposal of the local police in
criminals, is carried out by state-level police order to collect any particular information or make
forces[4]. The police functioning have remained a any special enquiry, but such officer will, on no
constant area of governmental concern and efforts to account, take the investigation out of the hands of the
improve it upon further [3]. Way back in 1986, the local Investigating Officer.
Government of India created National Crime Record
Bureau (NCRB). To give right impetus to the 4. DATA MINING CONCEPTS
National Crime Record Bureau, State Crime Record
Bureau (SCRB) at States and District Crime Record
USED
Bureau (DCRB) at Districts followed. Data mining is defined as digging in the huge amount
of data storage for the required data based on certain
Abbreviation Application Software
conditions. Data mining is an interdisciplinary field
package
involving: Databases, Statistics, Machine Learning,
CCIS Crime Criminal Information
High Performance Computing, Artificial Intelligence,
System
Visualization, and Mathematics [7].
CIPA Common Integrated Police
Application
Data mining techniques have already proved a
CAS Core Application Software significant role in implementing a crime analysis and
e-COPS e-COPS( Andhra Pradesh) crime detection software.
Police IT Police Information
Technology(Karnataka) Step1: Extraction of crime files
TTS Thana Tracking System(West Data has to be acquired and integrated from different
Bengal) sources, crime data will be available in pdf files,
CAARUS Tamil Nadu tables, excel worksheets, web page and static or
HD IITS Gujarat dynamic images or recorded voice, it has to be
MVCS Motor Vehicle Coordinating brought into a standard form for further processing,
System such as CSV, ASCII format etc.
OCIS Organized Crime Information Method used to extract data involves bringing data
System into suitable format and fetching the data
CCTNS Crime and Criminal Tracking
Network Systems Step2: Preprocessing
PSMS Police Station Management From step1 the data has to be cleansed by removing
System noise, transformation can be done by smoothing,
PS Prison Statistics aggregating and normalizing of data, patterns has to
JMS Jail Management Software be evaluated for avoiding redundant patterns.
PBS Prosecution Branch System Method adopted to preprocess data is cleaning the
NBSS/FSLS National Bomb Squad System and data by ignoring the entire record or attribute if it
Forensic Science Laboratory leads to confusion or inconsistency, filling missing
System. value manually, or automatic filling by assigning
PBS Portrait Building System default value(usually mean or mode of the attribute ),
FACTS Fingerprint Analysis and Criminal to handle noisy data neighborhood or binning,
Tracking System regression or clustering procedure can be adopted.
Table-2 Core Software used by Indian Police force
Step3: Classification of crime data
CRB’s primary duty is to collect record and Classification is a type of supervised learning that
disseminate information about crime in the district consists of a training stage and a testing stage.
Accordingly the dataset is divided into a training set
and a testing set. The classifier is designed to “learn” etc.Table-2 lists some data mining crime detection
from the training set classification models governing and prediction tools used globally.
the membership of data items. Accuracy of the Statist Spatial Data Data- Report
classifier is assessed using the testing set. Software ical analysis Entry minin ing
Common classifiers may fall into one of these model g
categories, Discriminant analysis, Bayesian model, Crime Yes No No Yes Yes
decision trees, artificial neural networks, support View
vector machines. ATAC Yes Yes yes Yes Yes
Web Yes Yes No Yes Yes
Step4: Clustering the crime dataset CAT
Clustering is a type of unsupervised learning. It CAD Yes Yes No Yes Yes
groups similar data items into clusters without mine
knowing their class membership[16]. Data No No No Yes Yes
Detective
ATAC Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Worksta
tion
CompSt Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
at
Fig-3 Clustering Process
VCAP Yes No Yes Yes Yes
The purpose of crime data clustering is to find a set
CAT No Yes Yes Yes Yes
of similar crime incidents based on an offender’s
ArcGIS
behavioral traits or to find a geographical area with a
SPSS Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
high concentration of certain types of crimes etc.
RAIDS Yes Yes No Yes Yes
Step5: Prediction about the criminals and crimes Online’s
Its is necessary to obtain outlier detection, isolate public
such items from the data, using above steps and crime
association rule mining, or neural network based map
concepts results can be obtained. Table-2 some software using data mining concepts
for crime detection and prediction
Step6: Results of knowledge gained from above steps
Finally the results will be tabulated or provided with 5. PREDICTIVE SYSTEM
graphical representation with or without GUI. Literature review helps in knowing the system which
The literature review [8][9][10][11] high lights the is implemented with the help of data mining
data mining concepts used for different types of techniques each system developed follows the
crime head detection and analysis. different algorithms [12]. From decades, for nabbing
criminals police officials uses their knowledge and
past experience by considering the history of crimes
and criminals, "the best predictor of the future is the
past" is a common method of developing crime
forecasts. Mathematical models that describe the
behaviour of observed past values can be used to
forecast future crime trends by projecting a time
series analysis of crime trends into the future.
Modeling consists of describing the causal sequence
of variables and the prediction of their interactions.
Any predictive model Endeavour’s to show a
relationship between certain independent (predictor)
Fig-4 Shows the data mining techniques used for variables and a dependent variable (i.e., the criterion
different crime detection. to be predicted).Various data sources and methods
used to guide forecasting include crime statistics;
In order to help the legal experts, police and crime surveys of experts, practitioners, and the general
investigators there are more than one twenty tools are public; literature reviews; scenario writing; and
available all over the world out of which some statistical (time series) models that extrapolate crime
software's are dedicated for specific types of crimes. trends into the future
 Mining Suite integrates graphical and
statistical data analysis with
modeling algorithms including
neural networks, clustering,
fuzzy systems, and genetic
algorithms.
RapAnalyst(tm) uses advanced artificial
intelligence to create dynamic
predictive models, to reveal
relationships between new and
Fig-5 Represents the overview of Crime prediction historical data.
method. Powerhouse Data For predictive and clustering
Mining software modeling, based on Dorian
Table-2 Software suites for knowledge Pyle's ideas on using
Discovery Information Theory in data
Software Description analysis. Most information is in
XLMiner Data Mining Add-In For Excel. Spanish.
Zoom 'n View The plug-in reporting solutions Pentaho Open-source BI suite, including
TIMi Suite: Intelligent Mining machine, a reporting, analysis, dashboards,
family of stand-alone, data integration, and data mining
automated, user-friendly GUI based on Weka.
tools for prediction, Oracle Data Enables customers to produce
segmentation and data Mining (ODM) actionable predictive
preparation, with high information and build integrated
scalability, speed, ROI & business intelligence
prediction accuracy. applications.
Synapse A development environment for Microsoft SQL Empowers informed decisions
neural networks and other Server 2005 with predictive analysis through
adaptive systems, supporting the intuitive data mining, seamlessly
entire development cycle from integrated within the Microsoft
data import and preprocessing BI platform, and extensible into
via model construction and any application.
training to evaluation and KnowledgeMiner For Excel, a knowledge mining
deployment; allows deployment (yX) tool that works with data stored
as .NET components. in Microsoft Excel for building
Statistica Data A comprehensive, integrated predictive and descriptive
Miner statistical data analysis, graphics, models. (MacOS, Excel 2004 or
data base management, and later).
application development system. GMDH Shell An advanced but easy to use tool
SAS Enterprise Enterprise Miner, an integrated for predictive modeling and data
Miner suite which provides a user- mining.
friendly GUI front-end to the Fair Isaac Model software platform for developing
SEMMA (Sample, Explore, Builder and deploying analytic models,
Modify, Model, Assess) process. includes data analysis, decision
Salford Systems CART Decision Trees, MARS tree and predictive model
Data Mining predictive modeling, automated construction, decision
Suite regression, TreeNet optimization, business rules
classification and regression, management, and open-platform
data access, preparation, deployment.
cleaning and reporting modules, Angoss A comprehensive suite of data
RandomForests predictive Knowledge mining and predictive modeling
modeling, clustering and Studio tools; interoperability with SAS
anomaly detection. and other major statistical tools.
Previa family of products for 11Ants Model A desktop predictive analytics
classification and forecasting Builder modelling tool, which includes
Predictive Data From Predictive Dynamix regression, classification and
propensity models.
11Ants Predictor A high speed scoring engine for
deploying predictive models
against enterprise databases.
Since crime continues to persist a step ahead of the
law and order, frequently making traditional methods
and tools, devices and technology are insufficient,
police department are stepping up their crime-
fighting efforts and getting smarter using
sophisticated new generation software’s which will
analyze, detect and predict crimes and can compile
volumes of crime records in seconds, including data
from the Internet, phone calls, monetary transactions,
traffic movements, patrols, at any time[14].
CONCLUSION
Classical crime analysis basically develops a method
to analyze time series data against crime heads, and
then tries to associate with exact crime, criminal,
victim, location to identify the criminal or suspect in
order to reduce crime
Along with this method if data mining techniques are
included then analysis and prediction becomes fast
and easy even though data is huge, diverse, and
unstructured, also provides the results far better than
the manual methods. As the results of detection and
prediction will become fast, police can take action in
advance to prevent the future crimes.
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