Emirates Journal for Engineering Research, 9 (2), 53-58 (2004)

(Regular Paper)

SEISMIC MAP FOR THE STATE OF KUWAIT

A. W. SADEK
Building and Energy Technologies Department
Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research

‫ ﺤﻴﺙ ﺘﻡ ﺘﺠﻤﻴﻊ ﺍﻟﺒﻴﺎﻨﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺘﺎﺭﻴﺨﻴﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﺴﺠﻠﺔ ﺁﻟﻴﹰﺎ‬،‫ﺘﺘﻨﺎﻭل ﻭﺭﻗﺔ ﺍﻟﺒﺤﺙ ﺘﻘﻴﻴﻤﹰﺎ ﻟﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻟﺯﻻﺯل ﺒﺩﻭﻟﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻭﻴﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻤﺭﺘﺒﻁﺔ ﺒﻅﺎﻫﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺯﻻﺯل ﺒﻤﻨﻁﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻜﻭﻴﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ ﺍﻟﻤﺠﺎﻭﺭﺓ ﻟﻬﺎ ﻹﻨﺸﺎﺀ ﺃﺴﺎﺱ ﻟﺩﻟﻴل ﺍﻟﺯﻻﺯل ﻴﻐﻁﻲ ﺍﻟﻔﺘﺭﺓ ﻤﻥ‬
‫ ﻟﺘﻭﺯﻴﻊ ﻗﻭﺓ‬Exponential ‫ ﻭﻗﺩ ﺘﻡ ﻋﻤل ﺘﻭﺼﻴﻑ ﻟﻠﻤﻨﺎﻁﻕ ﺍﻟﺯﻟﺯﺍﻟﻴﺔ ﺒﺎﻓﺘﺭﺍﺽ ﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬،‫ﻡ‬2000 ‫ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻋﺎﻡ‬860 ‫ﻋﺎﻡ‬
‫ ﻭﻗﺩ ﻗﺎﻤﺕ ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺔ ﺘﺤﻠﻴل ﻤﺨﺎﻁﺭ ﺍﻟﺯﻻﺯل ﻋﻠﻰ‬.‫ ﻟﺘﻜﺭﺍﺭ ﺤﺩﻭﺙ ﺍﻟﺯﻻﺯل ﻤﻊ ﺍﻟﺯﻤﻥ‬Poisson ‫ ﻭﻨﻤﻭﺫﺝ‬،‫ﺍﻟﺯﻻﺯل‬
.‫ ﺍﻻﺤﺘﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬Cornell ‫ﻁﺭﻴﻘﺔ ﻜﻭﺭﻨﻴل‬

This paper presents the seismic hazard assessment for the State of Kuwait. In the present study,
historical and instrumental seismicity data in the Kuwait area and its vicinity are compiled to
form the base earthquake catalogue covering the period from 860 to 2000. Seismic zones
characterization was performed assuming an exponential model for magnitude distribution and a
Poisson time occurrence model. Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis employed herein is based
on Cornell’s methodology.

INTRODUCTION SEISMOTECTONICS OF KUWAIT

The presented work is part of an ongoing research
project for assessing the seismic risk of residential
buildings in Kuwait whose closeness to Zagros belt
warrants the assessment. The State of Kuwait is
located in the northeastern part of the Arabian
Peninsula at the northwestern end of the Arabian Gulf.
Kuwait is located to the southwest of the Zagros belt,
which is capable of producing strong earthquakes of
magnitudes 7.5. Local seismicity in Kuwait is
characterized by several local earthquakes of
magnitudes up to 5 mainly in the southern part of the
Minagish oilfields.
The prime concern of the present paper is to assess
the seismic hazard in the State of Kuwait. Seismic
hazard assessment in areas of low to moderate seismic
activity such as Kuwait poses a challenge to engineers
due to the scarcity and incompleteness of
seismological data required as input to seismic hazard
analysis.
As for attenuation relationships, no specific
relations have been developed for the region and due
to the absence of instrumented data of peak ground
accelerations, expert judgement was exercised as for
the selection of a conservative attenuation formula.
None of the previous studies of regional seismic
hazard assessment in the Gulf area has considered the
local seismicity in the State of Kuwait as defined by
the local events recorded by the Kuwait National
Seismic Network, KNSN, over the past seven years.
Local events are accounted for in the present study.
Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis employed
herein is based on Cornell’s methodology. Seismic
hazard computation was performed using CRISIS99
program.
The Arabian plate is defined by five tectonic features,
with the Zagros and Taurus mountain in the northeast
defining the continental collision between the Arabian,
Persian and Turkish plates, Figure 1. In the east, the
Arabian plate subducts beneath the Makran region of
Pakistan and Iran, and southeast is the Owen Fracture
zone. In the south and southwest are the spreading
centers on the sea floor along the axis troughs in the
Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea. Kuwait is located off
the coast of the northwest tip of the Arabian Gulf.
THE EARTHQUAKE CATALOGUE
A primary component of any probabilistic seismic
hazard is the earthquake catalogue associated with the
analysis. The present catalogue is the result of
searching the World Seismicity Database, WSD, of the
British Geological Survey, BGS, for the Kuwait area
consisting of a ten-degree square (24.00 to 34.00
latitude, 43.00 to 53.00 longitude) centered on Kuwait
City (latitude 29.33, longitude 48.00).
The catalogue consists of 1939 earthquake events
including historical and instrumental events covering
the period from 860 to 2000 and with magnitudes
ranging between 2 and 8. The seismicity map for the
Kuwait area as defined by the present catalogue is
shown in Figure 2.a. For the purpose of recurrence-
rate analysis, events are classified into historic events
prior to 1900 and the remaining events are
instrumental events.

53
A. W. Sadek

Figure 1. Tectonic boundaries of the Arabian Peninsula

Figure 2a. Regional seismicity of the Kuwait area.

54 Emirates Journal for Engineering Research, Vol.9, No.2, 2004


Figure 2b. Symbol key for the regional seismicity map
LOCAL EVENTS
Seismic monitoring in the State of Kuwait began in
March 1997. The Kuwait National Seismograph
Network (KNSN) consists of seven three-component
short period and one broad band seismometers (shown
in Figure 3). The seismic data is transmitted via two-
way full duplex error-correcting digital telemetry to
the recording center at the Kuwait Institute for
Scientific Research (KISR) in Kuwait City.
All seismic data recorded by the seismometers is
digitized using 24-bit digitizers, with a sampling rate
of 100 samples/s [1]. The network can detect local,
regional and teleseismic earthquake events. Local
events are defined as the earthquake events recorded
within the boundaries of the State of Kuwait. The
spatial distribution of the local events is depicted in
Figure 4. The largest event is of magnitude 4.3,
December 1997, and located in the southern part of
Kuwait and such area has been relatively active as
compared to other areas of the State of Kuwait.
DATA PRE-PROCESSING
Any complete earthquake catalogue is generally non-
Poissonian, i.e. earthquakes are not entirely time
independent events since a cluster of after-shocks
whose occurrence is dependent of the main shock
usually follows any major earthquake. Probabilistic
seismic hazard analysis assumes that seismicity
follows a Poisson process and hence it is essential to
remove any non-Poissonian behaviour from the
earthquake catalogue by eliminating the dependent
events. A variety of approaches can be used for that
matter. In the present study the spatial and temporal
windows or filters proposed by Maeda [2] are
employed to eliminate the accessory events from the
original data as follows.
Emirates Journal for Engineering Research, Vol.9, No.2, 2004
Seismic Map for The State of Kuwait
Spatial criterion: L ≤ 10(0.5 Mm-1.8)
Temporal criterion: t ≤ 10(0.17+0.85(Mm-4))/1.3 – 0.3
Magnitude criterion: Ma < Mm-1.0
where:
L = epicentral distance from the main shock
Mm= magnitude of a main shock
Ma = magnitude of an after-shock
t = time in days from occurrence of a main shock
SEISMIC SOURCE ZONATION
A seismic source zone is defined as a seismically
homogeneous area, in which every point within the
source zone is assumed to have the same probability of
being the epicenter of a future earthquake. It is not
always possible to compile detailed information of the
several fields required for the ideal delineation of
source zones. As an alternative, a careful consideration
of the main tectonic structures and their correlation
with the current seismicity can be the basis for the
delineation of the source zones.
Four sources were delineated in the present study
and their details are given in Figures 5 and 6. The first
source accounts for the Zagros belt and is of Poisson
type for which a complete recurrence rate analysis was
performed to define its parameters. The other three
sources account for the local events and are of the
characteristic type, that is the time span of monitoring
and number of events are very limited and do not
warrant a meaningful statistical analysis and are
mainly characterized by a maximum credible
earthquake. Upon the request of the client, local
sources were excluded in the seismic hazard analysis.
55
A. W. Sadek

Figure 3. Location of the seismic stations of KNSN

: 3 ≤ M < 4. : 2.0 ≤ M < 3 :M<2

Figure 4. Local seismicity of the state of Kuwait (1997-2002)

56 Emirates Journal for Engineering Research, Vol.9, No.2, 2004

 Seismic Map for The State of Kuwait

Figure 5. Foreign earthquakes source

Figure 6. Local seismicity sources

the slope of the magnitude-frequency of occurrence

Earthquake Recurrence Rate relation; the activity rate λ, which is the annual
For source 1, the following parameters defining number of earthquakes above the lower bound
occurrence of earthquakes in the source zone are magnitude; and the average hypo-central depth. The
evaluated: Mo, threshold magnitude below which no following values were assigned to these parameters.
engineering significant damage expected; the upper Mo = 4.00
bound magnitude Mmax representing the maximum Mmax = 7.5
expected magnitude; the Gutenberg-Richter B = 0.87
earthquake recurrence parameter b-value, representing λ =11.50

Emirates Journal for Engineering Research, Vol.9, No.2, 2004 57

A. W. Sadek
Figure 7. Seismic hazard map of the State of Kuwait
ATTENUATION RELATIONSHIPS
Strictly speaking, attenuation laws are site dependent
and need to be determined for each location. Such
information is not readily available for the Arabian
Gulf region. For the purpose of the present study the
attenuation relationship developed by Sadigh et al. [4]
was used. However, a dedicated study on the influence
of attenuation laws on the resulting seismicity in the
Arabian Gulf area is highly needed.
SEISMIC HAZARD COMPUTATIONS
The probabilistic seismic hazard computations were
performed using CRISIS99 software [5] whose
calculations are based on the well-known Cornell
approach [6] to compute seismic hazard in extended
regions. Basic input data are geometry of the sources,
seismicity of the sources and the attenuation relations.
Using a recursive triangularization algorithm, spatial
integration of hazard equations are performed
optimizing number of calculations, so CRISIS99 will
integrate with more points for the nearest sources and
less points for distant sources. Hazard estimations are
made for points in a grid not necessarily rectangular.
Data validation options are available and parameters
can be given in a user-friendly graphic environment.
The resulting seismic hazard map of the State of
Kuwait is shown in Figure 7. The map shows expected
peak ground accelerations for a 10% probability of
exceedance over a 100 year return period. It should be
noted the great influence that local seismicity has on
the seismic hazard in Kuwait.
CONCLUSION
The present study performed probabilistic seismic
hazard analysis in the State of Kuwait. The analysis
considered regional seismicity accounting for the
Zagros belt and more important the local seismicity
58
0.225g
0.200g
0.175g
0.15g
0.125g
0.100g
0.075g
0.050g
defined by earthquake events recorded within the State
of Kuwait. The resulting product of the study is a
seismic hazard map of the State of Kuwait showing
expected peak ground accelerations with 10%
probability of exceedance over 100 year return period.
It is clearly demonstrated that local seismicity is
important and should be included in future studies of
hazard assessment.
It is recommended to perform fault tree analysis
including all uncertainties involved in seismic hazard
assessment to better judge the influence of a given
parameter on the ground motion estimate and
prediction.
REFERENCES
1. F. Bou-Rabee, “Seismotectonics and Earthquake
Activity of Kuwait”, Journal of Seismology, Vol. 4, 133-
141, 2000.
2. K. Maeda, “The Use of Foreshocks in Probabilistic
Prediction along the Japan and Kuril Trenches”, Bulletin
Seismological Society of America, Vol. 86 (1A), 242-
254, 1996.
3. B. Gutenberg, C. Richter, “Seismicity of the Earth and
Associated Phenomena”, Pricenton University Press, 2nd
Edition, 1954.
4. K. Sadigh, C.-Y. Chang, J.A. Egan, F. Makdisi and R.R.
Youngs, “Attenuation Relationships for Shallow Crustal
Earthquakes Based on California Strong Motion Data”,
Seismological Research Letters, Vol. 68 (1), 1997.
5. M. Ordaz, A. Aguilar and J. Arboleda, “CRISIS99: A
Computer Code to Evaluate Seismic Hazard”,
Engineering Institute, National Autonomous University
of Mexico, Mexico, 1999.
6. C. A. Cornell, “Engineering Seismic Risk Analysis”,
Bulletin Seismological Society of America,Vol. 58,
1583-1606, 1968.
Emirates Journal for Engineering Research, Vol.9, No.2, 2004