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Damage Due To Incident Radiation Intensities
Damage Due To Incident Radiation Intensities
1.0 OBJECTIVE
The objective of carrying out Risk Assessment Study for CCPP is to study the risks involving hazardous
materials and their consequences. In this endeavor, the study objectives are outlined here under.
RA will include a number of steps:
Hazard Identification
Release Assessment
Exposure Assessment
Consequence Assessment
Risk Estimation
Institute of Engineering and Ocean Technology (IEOT), ONGC, Panvel was entrusted with job of QRA
Study of Combine Cycle Power Plant (CCPP) at Hazira Plant. The principle aim of this study is to carry
out Quantitative Risk Assessment of CCPP at Hazira. Consequence analysis has been done to evaluate
various consequence analysis has been done to evaluate various consequence by major hydrocarbon
facilities and risk estimation has been done for the plant personal. IEOT has exercised all reasonable
engineering judgement, skill, care and diligence in carrying out this study. IEOT, ONGC has utilized
onshore Risk Analysis software tool called “SAFETI Professional Version-6.7” for carrying out QRA
Study. Based on the Risk Assessment few conclusions have been drawn which are mentioned at 1.10.
CONSEQUENCE ANALYSIS
1.1 GENERAL
Consequence analysis involves the application of mathematical, analytical and computer models for
calculation of effects and damages subsequent to a hydrocarbon release accident. Consequence
models are used to predict the physical behavior of hazardous incidents. The techniques used to model
the consequences of hydrocarbon and other hazardous material releases cover the following:
Modeling of Discharge Rates when holes develop in process equipment/piping/pipeline.
Modeling of the size and shape of flammable and toxic gas clouds from releases in the
atmosphere.
Modeling of the flame and radiation field of the releases that are ignited and burn as jet fire,
pool fire, flash fire and BLEVE/Fire ball.
Modeling of the explosion fields of releases which are ignited away from the plant of release.
Flammable material to be used at site is High pressure Fuel Gas. Therefore, Jet fire, Flash, Fire ball
and explosion have been considered as credible events on ignition of leaked inventory. Therefore, the
following modeling is relevant to the present Risk Analysis Study and their computer outputs for major
risk contributors are placed at Appendix-I of this report.
Dispersion modeling
Jet fire/Flash fire and Explosion Modeling
1.2 DISCHARGE AND DISPERSION MODELLING
1.2 .1 DISCHARGE RATE MODELLING
The initial rate of release of hydrocarbon through a leak depends mainly on the pressure inside the
equipment, size of the hole and phase of the release (liquid, gas or two-phase). The release rate
decreases with time as the equipment depressurizes. This reduction depends mainly on the
hydrocarbon inventory and the action taken to isolate the leak and blow-down the equipment.
The level of damage caused is a function of duration of exposure, as well as of heat flux. This is true
both for the effect on buildings and plant equipment and for the effect on personnel. However, the
variation of likely exposure times is much more marked with personnel, due to the possibility of finding
shelter.
The variation of effects on humans with changes in heat flux and duration of exposure have been
expressed in the form of probit equation:
Probit = -14.9 + 2.16 Ln (t*I 4/3*10 - 4)
Where,
t = duration of exposure in seconds;
I = thermal radiation intensity in watts/sq.m.
For 10% fatality level, Probit = 1.0
For the analysis of fatal effects due to thermal radiation, the radiation intensity of 12.1 kw/m2 is
calculated from the above Probit equation as it is assumed that persons will require about 80 seconds
to move away from the accident area to a “shelter” area.
Based on the above equations, the fatal effects on humans due to various levels of thermal radiation
and duration of exposure have been calculated and summarized below in Table No. 1.4.2.
Table No. 1.4.2
Fatal Radiation Exposure Levels
(Source: WHAZAN – World Bank Hazard Analysis, 1998)
Radiation level Fatality Level
(KW/m2)
1% 10% 99% 1% 10% 99% 1% 10% 99%
Exposure in seconds
1.6 100 1300 3200
4.1 110 370 930
12.1 30 80 200
37.1 8 20 10
(iii) For transient fires like fireball, Probit equation as described above is used to arrive at the fatal
radiation level considering the duration of the fireball. Further, fire fatalities need to be considered for
people in the open (i.e. working on the site, or walking outside the site) and people inside working in
office, or inside houses). For this study, the following Fatality
Probabilities have been considered.
Table No. 1.4.3
Fire Fatality Probability
(Source: Risk Analysis Training Course Manual
prepared for IEOT, ONGC by DNV Technica, 1996)
Fire Type Fatality Probability
Outdoors Indoors Outdoors Indoors
Flash fire 1.0 0.1
Jet, Pool fire 0.7 0.1
Fireball 0.7 0.2
In the event of an explosion-taking place within the complex, due to hydrocarbon and air mixing and
catching fire, the resultant blast wave may have damaging effect. The tanks, buildings, structures etc.,
can only tolerate low level of overpressure. Human body by comparison can with stand higher
overpressure but injury or fatality can be inflicted by collapse of buildings or structures or by being
thrown over. The damage effect of blast overpressure for residential type building is given in Table
1.4.4.
Table No. 1.4.4
Damage Effect of Blast Overpressure
(Source: Guidelines for Chemical Process
by CCPS of the AIChE,1989)
Overpressure duration is important for determining effects on structures. The positive pressure phase
of the blast wave can last from 10 to 100 ms for typical UVCE. The same overpressure level can have
different effects depending on the duration.
The interpretation of these data is clear with respect to structural damage but subject to debate with
respect to human casualties. The Rijnmond (1972) study equates heavy building damage i.e. 0.31 barg
to a fatal effect, as those inside buildings would likely to be killed by the collapsing structure. For the
present study, the following Explosion Fatality Probabilities have been adopted:
Radiation effect zone of 37.1kw/m2 is limited around the Scrubber. Since fire ball duration is 17second,
equipment damage not expected.
Gas turbine is housed in a Hall and large leak will fill the enclosure and consequence effect and
its distance may be different. In such case flash fire or explosion may occur.
Around the FG Scrubber, there is not much confinement and hence, high explosion overpressure is not
resulted.
As gas turbine will be installed in the enclosure, there is around 200m3 of confinement volume. Also,
obstruction is present in form of gas turbine. In this case higher degree of explosion overpressure may
result as shown above. Upto 3psi overpressure is limited to smaller area in the CCPP layout.
Once the frequencies and consequences of each modeled accident scenario have been estimated,
they have to be combined to form measures of overall risk. In this study, Event Tree Analysis (ETA) in-
built within SAFETI software has been used to estimate the risk. Risk is usually presented in the forms
elaborated below:
F-N Curve - It is a cumulative frequency versus fatalities curve, showing the cumulative frequencies (F)
of accident scenarios involving N or more fatalities. They are derived by sorting the frequency-fatality
pairs from each accident outcome of each accident scenario, and adding them to form cumulative
frequency-fatality (F-N) coordinates for the plot. They can be used to identify the accident scenarios
with the potential to cause large number of fatalities at once. SAFETI software presents group risk in
this form as well as ranks the societal risk results in descending order of fatalities for easy identification
of the accident scenarios contributing maximum to the societal (or group) risk.
Therefore risk to most of the continuously manned location is in broadly acceptable region.
The overall Societal (Group) risk F-N curve plotted by “SAFETI” software forCCPP is placed at
Appendix-III of the report. After examination and evaluation of the F-N curves, the risks of different
group sizes of personnel affected have been estimated and placed as follows in Table No 1.8.2.2.
The group of people is for the persons working in CCPP. Risk is limited to the CCPP plant area. On
perusal of the Societal Risk Ranking results presented at Appendix-III of the report it can be summarized
that the following are the major risk contributing scenarios.
Fuel gas scrubber and associated piping are the major contributor of risk in Combined cycle Power
Plant (CCPP).
1.9 RISK ASSESSMENT
1.9.1 RISK CRITERIA
Indian Regulatory Authorities have not specified any formal regulation/guideline regarding risk criteria
to be adopted. In absence of it, in this study, Individual Risk Acceptance Criteria (RAC) as suggested
by Health & Safety Executive (HSE), of the Government of United Kingdom, for onshore hazardous
industry has been used to assess the individual risk to public and plant personnel.
Further, Society usually judges accidents, which result in multiple fatalities more harshly than the
multiple accidents, which causes fewer fatalities per accident. In view of this fact, the Societal Risk has
also been assessed. Societal Risk Criteria as suggested by H.S.E., U.K has been used.
Health & Safety Executive, U.K suggested a flexible framework, for risk criteria. This form of criteria
usually specifies a level, often known as the maximum tolerable criterion, above which the risk is
regarded as intolerable whatever the benefit may be, and must be reduced. Below this level, the risks
should also be made as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP). This means that when deciding
whether or not to implement risk reduction measures, their cost may be taken into account, using cost-
benefit analysis. In this region, the higher the risks, the more it is worth spending to reduce them. If the
risks are low enough, it may not be worth spending anything, and the risks are then regarded as
negligible.
This approach can be interpreted as dividing risks into three tiers, as is illustrated in Fig.10.1.1. These
tiers are described in the following page:
An intolerable region, within which the risk is generally intolerable whatever the benefit may be.
Risk reduction measures or design changes are considered essential.
A middle band (or ALARP region) where the risk is considered to be tolerable only when it has
been made ALARP. This requires risk reduction measures to be implemented if they are
reasonably practicable, as evaluated by cost- benefit analysis.
A negligible region, within which the risk is generally tolerable, and no risk reduction measures
are needed.
Also the risk levels suggested for plant personnel and general public are placed in the Table given
below & in Fig 10.1.2 in the previous page:
Table No. 1.9.1.1: INDIVIDUAL RISK CRITERIA
(Suggested by Health & Safety Executive, U.K)
Note:
1 N is the Number of Fatalities
2 F is the frequency of N or more fatalities per year
Further, risks can be categorized as involuntary or voluntary, depending on the benefit gained from the
activity by an individual undertaking the risks, arising out of the activity.
Risk to an individual member of the Public may generally be treated as involuntary. For the sake of
comparison, the following involuntary risks undertaken by individuals may be of interest:
Risks to an individual Plant Personnel are usually being treated as voluntary. For the sake of
comparison, the following voluntary risks undertaken by individuals may be of interest:
On perusal of the F-N Curve generated for CCPP and the Societal (Group) Risk figures tabulated under
Table No. 1.9.2.2 as given below, it can be concluded that the societal risk is in the ALARP risk region.
1.10 Conclusion:
Individual risk contour are not extending far off distances and are confined around the CCPP.
Risk is in ALARP Risk region. Maximum individual risk is covering GT and fuel Scrubber (KOD)
area. In relation to the Overall Hazira plant layout, Individual Risk is limited to a small area.
ISO risk contours from 1x10-4/year to 1x10-6/year are limited to the CCPP and FGH area. None
of the contour is going outside the Hazira plant boundary. Therefore, Maximum risk contour for
Plant personnel and for general public is confined inside the plant boundary.
Maximum working persons are expected to be available on site during day time and hence
Group (Societal) risk considering this case is in ALARP Risk Region. In Night time less person
are present at site so group risk for night will reduce further.
Jet fire is the most credible scenario in case of leakage from the Fuel gas system. Small leak
from fuel gas scrubber etc. is expected to disperse easily, if ignited, will have local effect limited
to the facility. Medium leak if ignited may have local effect limited to the facility. Medium leak if
ignited may give small duration jet fire. Jet fire may result damage to facility. Timely isolation of
the leak may reduce the consequences considerably. Jet fire from medium leak may last for
about 130seconds. Radiation level of 37.1 Kw/m2 have potential to result facility damage.
Facilities are situated in well-ventilated area, however, Worst case Scenario are analyzed for
large leak/catastrophic rupture. Large leak or catastrophic rupture in the fuel gas system or gas
turbine, if ignited immediately may give rise to small duration jet fire and for delayed ignition
can result flash fire, fireball or explosion. Gas detection and ignition control will help in
minimizing the consequences.
Catastrophic rupture followed by delayed ignition may result flash fire. Flash fire effects are
localized. Facility damage not expected but major injury or fatality may result for the person
trapped in the flash fire.
Gas Turbine Generator is to be housed in a well –ventilated Hall. Small leaks are expected to
disperse easily. Worst case scenario of catastrophic rupture ignited by high temperature on gas
turbine may give rise to fireball/explosion.
In case of early Explosion in gas turbine enclosure, Gas Turbine Control room is falling under
3psi overpressure zone and Control Room is beyond 3psi Pressure zone. In case of late
explosion, 3 psi overpressure is reaching up to Control Room.
In relation to the overall plant, the consequence effect are broadly limited to the CCPP area.
Based on the conclusion drawn above, following are the major recommendation for improvement of
Safety.
1. As high fuel gas handled in the CCPP, an adequate Gas detection system should be provided
covering the Fuel gas system for quick detection of any leakage of the gas.
Action: adequate Gas detection system is in place.
2. Means of quick isolation should be provided in the fuel gas system to limit the leaked inventory
and duration of fire. The isolation system should be interlocked with the F&G system. A long
duration jet fire, because of medium or large leak, may damage the pipe rack passing near the
FG System and may escalate the consequences.
Action: Onsite & off site emergency Plan is Available. Proper exit system is provided.
3. Adequate ventilation should be insured in the Gas Turbine Hall. The gas turbine hall should
adequately be covered by gas detection system so that any leak can be detected and control
measure can be activated accordingly.
Action: Available
4. In Case of explosion in the Gas turbine enclosure, the Gas Turbine Control room and Control
room is falling in 3 psi explosion overpressure zone. Therefore it is recommended that Gas
Turbine Control Room and Control room should be made to withstand 3 psi explosion
overpressure or be shifted beyond the 3 psi explosion overpressure zone.
5. Shutdown valve should be provided at the gas entry point to the turbine hall to limit the gas
leaked quantity if any major leak happens. This shutdown valve should be interlocked with the
Fire and Gas detection system provided in the turbine hall/enclosure.
PSVs with
Closed
Fire-proof Discharge
Structures Process
Safety System
Fixed HC/H2S
ESDS Detection
Flare Monitoring
through CCTV