Phoenix IC

You might also like

Download as pdf or txt
Download as pdf or txt
You are on page 1of 86

INITIATING COVERAGE

PHOENIX MILLS – ‘Not your run of the mill mall operator’

December, 2019

▪ GIRISH CHOUDHARY  girish@sparkcapital.in  +91 44 4344 0021


▪ GAURAV NAGORI  gaurav@Sparkcapital.in  +91 44 4344 0072

 Analyst Certification and Required Disclosures begin on last two pages – Click
Page 1
here
PHOENIX MILLS CMP Target Price Rating
Rs.770 Rs.880 BUY
‘‘Not your run of the mill mall operator” - Initiating Coverage with a BUY rating
Phoenix Mills Limited (PML) is a leading developer and operator of malls with a strong portfolio of eight malls across six cities, and a gross leasable area of
~6msf yielding a rental income of ~Rs. 10bn (FY20E). PML’s expertise in acquiring, designing and developing well-located land parcels, and best in class mall
management skills have given the company an edge over other mall developers, evidenced by a strong consumption CAGR of 13% over FY14-FY19 across its INITIATING COVERAGE
malls with average occupancy of 95% as of FY19. Post a consolidation phase seen in FY13-FY17, PML is currently in the midst of aggressively expanding its 18th December, 2019
retail portfolio, adding five new malls (one new mall each year from FY20-FY24) with GLA doubling to ~11.7msf. PML’s commercial portfolio which is largely
to complement its retail assets is also set to increase multifold from 1.4msf currently to 5.5msf by FY25E. Overall, we expect PML’s rental income to grow at Industry REAL ESTATE
a CAGR of 20% over the next five years led by rent renewals at existing assets, and new developments. Despite a strong capex phase, PML’s balance sheet
ratios remain comfortable with net debt to equity of 1x while strong cash flow generation will continue to fuel long term expansion plans. Key Stock Data
We initiate coverage with a BUY rating with a TP of Rs.880/share based on SoTP (refer slide no. 78). Existing operational assets Bloomberg PHNX IN
(malls/offices/hotels/residential) contribute 75% to our total GNAV, and therefore, provides valuation comfort. Furthermore, implied cap rate for its rental
business works out to ~10% at CMP, which is attractive compared to listed global REITS which trade in the range of 3-4%. Given its high-quality assets, strong Shares o/s 153mn
cash generation potential, and growth visibility, we expect cap rates to compress post commencement of new assets. We are factoring cap rate of 9% for its
rental portfolio (existing and upcoming). Market Cap Rs. 119bn
Key investment thesis:
1. Best proxy for organised retailing and luxury brands growth in India: PML’s rental arrangements are consumption linked, and hence it’s a direct play on 52-wk High-Low Rs. 799-549
increasing share of organised retailing in India. The penetration of organized retail (including E-tail) is very low at ~12% compared to 25-50% in comparable
3m ADV Rs. 148mn
South East economies. However, organised retail is growing rapidly at 20-25%, and a similar trajectory is expected to continue over the next five years led by
increasing aspirations, urbanization and penetration of big brands into tier 2-3 cities. Within the organised retailing space, our estimates suggest that Index BSE 500
consumption through malls commands a market share of ~20%. Given PML’s scale of operations and multi-city presence, it has become a preferred partner for
luxury/international brands to gain entry into India’s retail market. Notably, PML’s flagship mall, High Street Phoenix in Mumbai has ~60% of its tenants selling Latest shareholding (%)
international/luxury brands. Reliance Fashion (has exclusive licenses in India to sell multiple international luxury brands) sales grew at ~38% CAGR over the last
three years, thereby indicating fast-growing demand for this category. We believe PML’s malls remain the best proxy to play this growth. Promoters 59.2
2. Retail rental income set to double – Consumption led rental growth in existing assets + Stabilization of new malls: PML’s current malls under operation
Institutions 33.3
generate strong cash flows with average asset-level RoIC (pre-tax) of around 16%-18%, with its flagship mall, High Street Phoenix topping the list. PML’s rental
from its operational assets is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11% over the next three years largely led by re-pricing given a high share of renewals are expected Public 7.5
till FY22, and steady growth in consumption, complemented by the company’s impressive mall management skills. Expect around 50% of the leasable area to
come under renewals. Further, new assets are expected to drive rental income growth gradually given one new mall is expected to be added each year till
FY24E. Given its strong track record and existing relationships with retailers/brand owners, we expect PML to achieve high rates of pre-leasing in upcoming
malls. For an instance, pre-leasing in its upcoming mall (4QFY20) in Lucknow stands at 85%, thus evidencing the company’s brand recall. The new malls are
expected to generate ~Rs.5bn of rental income post the stabilization phase (FY24-25E). Overall we expect PML’s retail rental income to almost double to ~Rs.
19.8bn by FY24E from Rs. 10.7bn in FY20E
3. Multifold increase in GLA and income from commercial portfolio: PML currently has a commercial portfolio of ~1.4msf which is set to increase by ~4x to
5.5msf, of which ~1.0 msf is under development and the remaining under planning. Entire commercial development is in close proximity to its existing mall RESEARCH ANALYSTS
assets as they complement PML’s retail assets by providing a strong catchment and steady footfalls even on weekdays. Overall, we expect commercial business
rental income to grow from Rs. 1.4bn in FY20E to Rs. 3.8bn by FY24E. GIRISH CHOUDHARY
4. Strong operating cash flow capability and increased scale of operations to support long term capex requirements: With ~40% of the total capex girish@sparkcapital.in
requirement (retail and office expansions) of ~Rs. 65bn already spent, we expect the remaining to be largely met out of internal accruals from its existing assets +91 44 4344 0021
and steady inflows from its residential business in Bangalore. We expect PML to generate cumulative operating cash flows (post-tax) to the tune of ~Rs. 39bn GAURAV NAGORI
over FY21-FY23E which will largely cater to its remaining capex and hence, do not expect a material increase in leverage from the current levels. Given PML’s gaurav@sparkcapital.in
long term plan is to continue adding 1msf of retail space each year post FY24E, we expect an increased scale of operations to suffice the capex requirements and +91 44 4344 0072
also pare down the current debt levels.
find SPARK RESEARCH on Bloomberg [RESP SPAK <go>] | FACTSET | REFINITIV EIKON Page 2
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

Phoenix Mills (PML) – Brief snapshot of the company

Corporate Factsheet

The Phoenix Mills entered the real estate market with commercial projects in Mumbai (Phoenix House and
Company Background Centre), and the famous High Street Phoenix mall in Mumbai. The company has 8 operational malls and
commercial projects in Mumbai & Pune in addition to residential projects in Bangalore and Chennai.

Phoenix develops malls under the High Street Phoenix (Mumbai), Palladium (Mumbai, Chennai), MarketCity
Presence (Mumbai, Bangalore, Chennai, Pune) and United (Lucknow, Bareilly) brands. The company has upcoming malls
in Pune, Indore, Lucknow, Ahmedabad and Bangalore.

▪ Mr. Atul Ruia – Chairman and Managing Director ▪ Mr. Pradumna Kanodia – Director (Finance)
Management depth
▪ Mr. Shishir Srivastava – Joint Managing Director ▪ Mr. Rajendra Kelkar – President and Whole time Director

Revenue contribution FY19 - Retail – 58%; Residential – 19%; Hospitality and Others – 18%; Commercial – 5%

FY19 rental income (Rs.mn)


~Rs.11bn
[Retail + Commercial]

Retail: Commercial:
Residential: Hospitality:
Operational – 5.9msf Operational – 1.32msf
Projects Operational – 3.2msf Operational – 588 keys
Ongoing – 4.9msf Ongoing – 1.0msf
Upcoming – 0.5msf
Planned – 0.9msf Planned – 3.2msf

Credit Rating ▪ CRISIL A+/Stable and IND A+/Stable

Auditors ▪ M/s. DTS & Associates

Page 3
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

PML has transformed itself successfully from a textile company to one of the largest mall operator in India

Started its first ever mall in Mumbai; Gradually entered in major cities in India and created a diversified portfolio of offices, hotels and residential spaces

1905 1959 1986 1987 1992 1996 2001 2002

▪ Began operations ▪ Listed on the BSE ▪ Phoenix House ▪ Entered into the ▪ The first multi- ▪ Opened 20 lane ▪ HSP emerged as a ▪ The first multi-
as a textile commercial centre growing real estate storied Phoenix bowling concourse, model for retail-led storied Phoenix
manufacturing became market where High residential towers the first of its kind development towers were built
company on 17.3 operational Street Phoenix were built on the in India and largest centre with on the Phoenix
acres land in Lower emerged as the Phoenix Mills Land in South Asia introduction of Big Mills Land
Parel Mumbai most frequented Bazaar
destination in
Mumbai

2017 2016 2013 2012 2010-2011 2009 2005 2003

▪ Partnered with ▪ The St. Regis, ▪ Launched Phoenix ▪ Launched ▪ Launched Phoenix ▪ Launched ▪ Celebrated ▪ Pantaloon and
CPPIB to develop Mumbai, the Market City Mall, Palladium Hotel, a MarketCity in Palladium Mall, an 100years Lifestyle, two large
retailed led mixed premiere most Chennai, a mixed 5 star luxury hotel, Pune, Bengaluru architecturally anniversary departmental
use development brand in Starwood use asset with 300+ nestled above the and Kurla designed first of its stores, each
assets (PML has Hotels portfolio stores Palladium Mall (Mumbai) and kind super luxury covering
51% stake in the begins operations ▪ Launched West acquired Phoenix premium and approximately
JV-ISMDPL) with 30 storey United (Bareilly iconic mall in HSP 50,000 sq ft
high-rise towers and Lucknow) complex operational
▪ Total brands = 300
(national &
International)

Source: Spark Capital

Page 4
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

Company Overview: PML derives majority of its revenue from retail segment (~about 60%)

Total area under offering in each segment Retail contributed 58% to overall FY19 revenues
Under
Business FY19 Revenue Split
Operational Area Development Under Planning Total
Vertical
(by FY24E) Hospitality & Others
18%
Retail (Malls) 6.0 4.9 0.9 11.8
Commercial
5%
Residential 3.0 0.2 0.5 3.7
Retail
Hospitality Residential 58%
588 keys
(Hotel) 19%

Commercial
1.9 1.0 3.2 6.1
(Offices)

Source: Spark Capital

Rentals (Malls and offices) regional contribution: Mumbai contributes 45% to


Retail contributed ~70% to FY19 EBITDA
overall rentals
Regional Area Split)
FY19 EBITDA Contribution
Lucknow
Residential Bangalore 4% Bareilly
15% 13% 4%
Chennai
16%
Hotels
14%

Commercial
4% Retail
67% Pune
Mumbai 18%
45%

Source: Spark Capital

Page 5
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

Geographical Overview of PML Properties across India

Currently Phoenix mills has presence in seven cities

MALL
HOSPITALITY
1. HSP & Palladium
(0.74msf) (100%) 1. Courtyard by Marriott
2. PMC Kurla (193 keys) (80%)
(1.14msf) (100%)
MALL

COMMERCIAL 1. Phoenix United, Bareilly


1. Phoenix House (0.31msf) (100%)
(0.20msf) (100%) Bareilly
2. Centrium HOSPITALITY MALL
Agra
(0.28msf) (100%) Lucknow
1. St.Regis, Mumbai 1. Phoenix United, Lucknow
3. Art Guild House (395 keys) (73%)
(0.80msf) (100%) Ahmedabad (0.33msf) (100%)
2. PMC Lucknow
4. Phoenix Paragon Plaza (0.90msf) (100%)
(0.41msf) (100%) MALL Indore
1. Palladium Ahmedabad
(0.70 msf) (50%)
MALL
Mumbai
MALL Pune 1. PMC Indore
1. PMC Pune COMMERCIAL (1.0 msf) (100%)
(1.19msf) (100%)
2. PMC Pune - Wakad 1. Fountainhead 1
(1.00msf) (CPPIB JV) (0.17msf) (100%)
1. Fountainhead 2 & 3 RESIDENTIAL
(0.54msf) (100%)
Bengaluru Chennai 1. The Crest (A,B & C)
(0.47msf) (50%)
MALL
MALL Area/Keys
RESIDENTIAL 1. PMC Chennai
1. PMC Whitefield PML’s Ownership (1.00msf) (50%)
1. One Bangalore West
(0.99msf) (51%) 2. Palladium, Chennai
(2.20msf) (80%)
2. PMC Hebbal 2. Kessaku Under Development (0.22msf) (29%)
(1.00msf) (CPPIB JV) (0.99msf) (80%)

Note: PMC stands for Phoenix MarketCity.

Page 6
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

Phoenix Mills (PML) – 7Y Company Snapshot

FY13 FY20E

6.8 msf 8.7 msf 1.9 msf


Gross leasable area

Rs. 23.5bn Aggregate Consumption Rs. 69.5bn Rs.46.0 bn

Aggregate Rental Income


Rs.3.9bn Rs.12.1bn Rs. 8.2bn
(Retail + Commercial)

Rs. 2.6bn Aggregate EBITDA Rs.10.9bn Rs.8.2bn

Rs. 19.2bn Net Debt Rs. 42.3bn Rs. 23.1bn

Rs. 17.7bn Net Worth Rs. 42.6bn Rs.24.9bn

5% RoE % 10% 5%

5% RoCE % 9% 4%

Operating Cash Flow Rs. 54bn

Capex Rs. 65bn


Cumulative FY14-20E
Free Cash Flow (Rs. 12bn)

Free Cash Flow (post interest & other income) (Rs. 35bn)

Source: Company, Spark Capital

Page 7
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

PML’s Investment Thesis

01 ▪ Presence in major Tier-1 cities ▪ Quasi-play on organized retail space growth 01

02 ▪ One of the largest malls in its operating market ▪ Proxy to play international/luxury brands 02

03 ▪ Located in quality catchment areas ▪ Non-linear growth in return metrics linked to ATD 03

04 ▪ Among highest trading densities across malls ▪ Narrowing gap between consumption and rentals 04

05 ▪ A full-fledged family entertainment centre ▪ Expansion into Tier-2 cities 05

06 ▪ Mixed-use developments aid steady footfalls ▪ Retail rental income to double by FY25E 06

07 ▪ In-house mall management team ▪ 4x increase in office space post expansion 07

08 ▪ Lower threat from existing/upcoming malls ▪ No significant cash outflow from residential business 08

09 ▪ Simplified structure ▪ Internal accruals to support further expansions 09

Page 8
RETAIL SECTION

Page 9
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

Retail overview: Operational and Upcoming malls Snapshot

PML has eight operational malls currently with an area of ~6msf and five upcoming malls with area of ~5msf; One mall is expected to be added each year until FY24E

PML Ownership (post Year of


Mall Name Location Area (msf) # of stores Entity Status
recent restructuring) completion
HSP FY99
HSP & Palladium Mumbai 0.7 270 100% PML Operational
Palladium FY08
Phoenix MarketCity Bangalore Bangalore 1.0 296 51% Island Star (CPPIB - JV) Operational FY11

Phoenix MarketCity Chennai Chennai 1.0 263 50% Classic Mall Developers Operational FY13

Phoenix MarketCity Mumbai Mumbai 1.1 311 100% Offbeat Developers Operational FY11

Phoenix MarketCity Pune Pune 1.2 352 100% Vamona Developers Operational FY11

Palladium Chennai Chennai 0.2 86 50% Starboard Hotels Operational FY18

Phoenix United Lucknow Lucknow 0.3 128 100% UPAL Developers Operational FY10

Phoenix United Bareilly Bareilly 0.3 139 100% Blackwood Developers Operational FY12

Total Operational (msf) 5.9

Phoenix MarketCity Lucknow Lucknow 0.9 NA 100% PML Upcoming FY20

Phoenix MarketCity Indore Indore 1.0 NA 51% CPPIB – JV Upcoming FY21

Palladium Ahmedabad Ahmedabad 0.7 NA 50% BSafal Group Upcoming FY22

Phoenix MarketCity Hebbal Bangalore 1.2 NA 51% CPPIB – JV Upcoming FY23

Phoenix MarketCity Wakad Pune 1.1 NA 51% CPPIB – JV Upcoming FY24

Total Upcoming Area (msf) 4.9


Source: Company, Spark Capital

Page 10
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
PML’s Mall Overview- Aggregate malls rental increased inline with consumption and led by improving average trading density and mall space
addition in last five years
PML’s aggregate consumption grew by 8% and 11% CAGR in last three and five years respectively PML a good proxy to play consumption growth in India

✓ Mall rentals are a function of minimum guarantee and revenue


3Y CAGR - 8% share whichever is higher.
75 5Y CAGR - 11% 60%
57% 68.9 ✓ PML demonstrated consistent track record of improving
70
63.3 50% consumption in all of its mall which is win-win for both mall
65
57.8 operator (higher revenue share) and tenants (lower cost of
60 40%
54.0 occupancy).
55
49.0 30% ✓ PML’s strength is its vast experience in mall management (churning
50
22% out underperforming brands, store relocation, resizing etc.) which
45 40.3 20%
differentiates it from other malls operators in India.
40
10%
7% 9% 9% 10% ✓ Most of the PML malls are marquee properties in the city of
35
30 0%
operations and having one of the highest average trading density.
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 ✓ Hence, both consumption and rentals have grown in double digit
growth in last 3 and 5 years.
Overall Mall Consumption (Rs.bn) Growth %
Source: Company, Spark Capital
PML’s aggregate rentals grew inline with overall consumption growth led by improving average trading PML’s rentals as percentage of consumption is one of the
density and mall space addition in last five years highest in last five years
3Y CAGR - 12%
5Y CAGR - 12% Mall Rental as a % of Consumption
11 9.9 40%
14.5%
36% 35% 14.4%
10 14.3%
8.7 30% 14.1%
14.1%
9
7.7 25% 13.9%
8 7.1 20% 13.7%
6.5 13.7%
14% 14% 15% 13.5%
7 13.4%
5.7 12%
9% 9% 10% 13.3% 13.3%
6 13.1% 13.1%
5%
5 0% 12.9%
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 12.7%
12.5%
Overall Mall Rentals (Rs.bn) Growth %
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
Source: Company, Spark Capital

Page 11
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
While HSP & Palladium’s area is just 12% of PML’s aggregate mall area, the mall contributes 35% to overall retail EBITDA; PML’s trading density is
2x of other malls due to its access to better catchment, and higher luxury brand mix.
HSP and Palladium (Mumbai) area is 12% of PML’s overall mall operational area
But HSP and Palladium’s rental is 35% of overall PML’s aggregate rental
(~6msf)
Mall-wise Area Contribution Mall-wise Rental Contribution
Phoenix United Phoenix United
Phoenix United (Bareilly) HSP & Palladium Phoenix United
(Lucknow) (Bareilly)
(Lucknow) 5% (Mumbai) Palladium (Chennai) 3%
5% 12% 2%
3%
Palladium (Chennai) HSP & Palladium
PMC - Chennai (Mumbai)
3%
PMC - Bangalore 15% 35%
PMC - Chennai 17%
17%
PMC - Mumbai
12%

PMC - Mumbai PMC - Pune


19% 21% PMC - Pune PMC - Bangalore
16% 14%

Source: Spark Capital

Trading density at HSP and Palladium is twice as that of other malls of PML

FY19 Trading Density (Rs.psf/month)


3,500
2,943
3,000
2,500
2,000 1,680
1,505
1,500 1,334
1,113 1,161
1,000 773 827

500
-
Palladium Chennai Phoenix United Bareilly Phoenix United Lucknow PMC - Mumbai PMC - Pune PMC - Chennai PMC - Bangalore HSP & Palladium

Source: Spark Capital

Page 12
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

Last five year Snapshot of PML’s malls- Most of the malls have seen double digit consumption growth in last three year and five year periods

Currently top three malls rentals account for 65% of PML’s total retail rental income

Contribution % Consumption CAGR % Rentals CAGR % Rentals as % of consumption Trading density


Mall name
Area Consumption Rentals 3Y 5Y 3Y 5Y 2013 2016 2019 2013 2016 2019

HSP & Palladium


12% 25% 35% 3% 5% 10% 11% 16% 17% 20% 2,020 2,741 2,943
(Mumbai)

PMC - Bangalore 17% 19% 14% 13% 14% 13% 13% 16% 11% 11% 745 1,287 1,680

PMC - Pune 21% 18% 16% 12% 14% 15% 15% 14% 12% 13% 653 1,077 1,334

PMC - Mumbai 19% 14% 12% 17% 16% 8% 5% 27% 16% 13% 454 797 1,161

PMC - Chennai 17% 16% 15% -1% 10% 8% 12% 23% 11% 14% 800 1,572 1,505

Palladium (Chennai) 3% 2% 3% NA NA NA NA NA NA 24% NA NA 773

Phoenix United
5% 5% 3% 16% NA 14% NA NA 10% 9% NA 882 1,113
(Lucknow)

Phoenix United
5% 3% 2% 4% NA 11% NA NA 9% 11% NA 597 827
(Bareilly)

Source: Company, Spark Capital

Page 13
INDUSTRY

Page 14
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
# Malls landscape in Tier-1 Cities – Supply declined in last five years and more so in malls with area of more than 0.4msf: Demand for A-Grade malls
(area>0.4msf) has increased significantly in past few years; Supply remains constrained due to high upfront capex
Total retail/mall (area>25,000sf) supply in top seven cities declined to 39msf in last five years versus 49msf in Cumulative supply is 26msf higher than cumulative
FY10-14 occupancy yielding a 19% vacancy rate

Cumulative area (FY09-19)


160
137
140
120 111
100
80
60
40
11.4 8.9 7.0 8.1 14.3 12.5 6.5 7.1 9.8 8.6 5.9 5.8 10.5 8.0 5.6 6.0 7.5 6.8 9.7 7.0
20
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 0
Tier-1 Cities Cumulative Mall Tier-1 Cities Cumulative Mall
Tier-1 Cities New Mall Supply (msf) Tier-1 Cities Mall Occupancy (msf) Supply (msf) Occupancy (msf)

Note: Tier 1 cities comprise 7 top cities viz. MMR, NCR, Chennai, Bangalore, Kolkata, Hyderabad, Pune by absorption. Source: Propequity, Spark Capital

Supply has been much lower in Grade-A malls (area over 0.4msf) due to high capex requirement Only 50 malls are over 0.4msf in Tier-1 cities

Number of malls in Tier-1 cities Cumulative number of malls (FY09-19)

1 Malls with area > 0.4msf


13 50
6
1 6 2
7 2 6
107 2
101
94 91
89 89 86 86 88
84

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
Malls with area < 0.4msf
Malls with area < 0.4 msf Malls with area > 0.4 msf 1,040

Note: Tier 1 cities comprise 7 top cities viz. MMR, NCR, Chennai, Bangalore, Kolkata, Hyderabad, Pune by absorption. Source: Propequity, Spark Capital

Page 15
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Lower supply and higher demand for Grade-A malls led to one of the lowest vacancy historically; Vacancy in Grade-A Malls is 10% versus 19%
for total mall/retail space in top seven cities
Cumulative supply in last five years for Grade-A malls declined to 14.2msf versus
Vacancy rate in Grade-A malls plunged to lowest in last 10 years
20.7 between FY10-15
22.0 20.7 35%
19.7 33%
20.0 30% 31%

18.0 26%
25%
24%
16.0
14.2 21% 21%
20% 20% 19% 20%
14.0 13.2 19% 18% 19% 19%
15% 16%
12.0 15% 15%
12% 12%
11% 11% 11%
10.0 10%
FY10-15 FY15-19 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Current

Grade-A malls new supply(msf) Grade-A space occupied (msf) Grade-A malls vacancy rate % Overall vacancy rate %

Note: Tier 1 cities comprise 7 top cities viz. MMR, NCR, Chennai, Bangalore, Kolkata, Hyderabad, Pune by absorption. Grade A malls comprise of malls over 0.4msf. Source: Propequity, Spark Capital

City-wise total mall demand-supply and vacancy rate data; Chennai has the lowest vacancy rate whereas NCR has the highest amongst the top seven cities in India

50 City-wise retail dynamics Tier-1 Cities


30%
Cumulative Supply: 139msf
Cumulative Occupancy: 113msf
35
Vacancy Rate 19%
25
22 16% 15%
18 14%
12% 16
10% 13 14 12
9 11 9
9 8
6%

NCR MMR Bangalore Chennai Hyderabad Pune Kolkata

Cumulative Supply (msf) Cumulative Occupancy (msf) Vacancy Rate %

Note: Tier 1 cities comprise 7 top cities viz. MMR, NCR, Chennai, Bangalore, Kolkata, Hyderabad, Pune by absorption. Source: Propequity, Spark Capital

Page 16
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

City Wise Grade-A malls vacancy over the years

FY13 FY16 FY19 FY13 FY16 FY19

Numbers of malls 129 150 176 Numbers of malls 116 149 176

Bengaluru Malls over 0.4 msf 6 8 10 Mumbai Malls over 0.4 msf 7 7 7

Vacancy % 7% 10% 5% Vacancy % 20% 6% 4%

Numbers of malls 150 217 277 Numbers of malls 56 73 97

Pune Malls over 0.4 msf 4 5 6 Navi Mumbai + Thane Malls over 0.4 msf 3 5 6

Vacancy % 26% 19% 13% Vacancy % 14% 28% 4%

Numbers of malls 30 38 57 Numbers of malls 110 146 178

Greater Noida + Noida Malls over 0.4 msf 2 4 6 Hyderabad Malls over 0.4 msf 1 3 5

Vacancy % 25% 20% 20% Vacancy % 5% 4% 33%

Numbers of malls 69 99 125 Numbers of malls 54 84 109

Gurugram Malls over 0.4 msf 1 1 1 Kolkata Malls over 0.4 msf 4 5 5

Vacancy % 3% 9% 2% Vacancy % 16% 3% 3%

Numbers of malls 104 118 123 Numbers of malls 127 193 297

New Delhi Malls over 0.4 msf 6 8 8 Ahmedabad Malls over 0.4 msf 5 5 5

Vacancy % 15% 20% 10% Vacancy % 49% 39% 41%

Numbers of malls 54 63 72 Numbers of malls 11 19 28

Chennai Malls over 0.4 msf 1 3 5 Lucknow Malls over 0.4 msf 1 1 1

Vacancy % 14% 6% 10% Vacancy % 6% 4% 3%

Source: Propequity, Spark Capital

Page 17
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Tier-2 Cities- Mall operators are entering in emerging Tier-2 cities with improving per capita income; There are only ~40 Grade-A malls (>0.4msf) in
27 Tier-2 cities in India providing enough scope for mall operators to grow their presence
Only 4 malls are added with an area of more than 0.4msf in 27 Tier-2 cities in last four years

Mall supply split in tier 2 cities


120
1
1
100
4 1
3
80
0 104 108
4
60 82 85
5 2 76
63 67
50 47
40
FY10 FY11 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

Malls under 0.4 msf Malls over 0.4 msf

Source: Propequity, Spark Capital

City wise mall supply data- Ahmedabad has the highest number of Grade A mall in India

7
6 Number of malls with area over 0.4msf
6

4
3
3
2 2 2 2 2 2 2
2
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1

0
Ahmedabad Ludhiana Amritsar Coimbatore Jaipur Cochin Lucknow Mangalore Mohali Bhiwadi Bhopal Bhubaneshwar Chandigarh Nagpur Raipur Trivandrum

Source: Propequity, Spark Capital

Page 18
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
We list Tier-2 cities with high potential on the basis of high existing mall stock mostly Grade B and C malls which can be replaced by Grade-A malls
and E-tail hotspots identified on the basis of highest number of Google queries associated with purchasing apparel
Below top 10 Tier-2 cities in India has higher potential due to high population, per capita income/spending and number of B and C grade malls which can be replaced by high
quality Grade-A malls

We have identified cities that could be potential growth pockets for PHNX during its
Tier 1 Cities next leg of growth into Tier-2 markets. The list of cities (in no specific rank) are
divided into two buckets viz. Top 10 and Next 10 on the basis of e-tailing hotspots
Tier 2 Cities (seen on the map to the left), and existing retail supply in these cities (Source:
Tier 3 Cities Propequity)

Top 10 Next 10

Surat Rajkot

Jaipur Bhopal

Nagpur Ludhiana

Vadodara Agra

Cochin Amritsar

Patna Raipur
E-tail hotspots
identified on the basis Vizag Mohali
of highest number of
Google queries Goa Trivandrum
associated with
purchasing apparel. Coimbatore Nashik

Source: Kanvic Analysis Chandigarh Bhubaneshwar

Source: Company, Spark Capital

Page 19
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Play on organised retail market in India- India Retail market size is pegged at approx.~ Rs.60trn and expected to grow at 12% CAGR over next five
years; Modern retail growth is expected to be higher than industry growth
Total retail market in India has grown at 13-14% CAGR in last six years to Rs.~60trn
Retail market in India is expected to grow at 12% CAGR over next five years
as of FY19
Retail Market Size (Rs.tn) 14%
12%
160 12%
140
140 10%
120 8%
8% 7% 7%
100 89 6%
6%
80 4%
53 4% 3%
60 43 47 2%
2%
40 26 2%
12 16
20 7 0%
0 Hong Kong Australia Singapore Thailand Phillipines Indonesia China Vietnam India
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2017 2018 2022E 2026E
Retail Sales Growth % (FY18-22E) APAC Growth % (FY18-22E)

Source: IBEF, Spark Capital

Only 12% of overall retail market is organized Organized retail penetration is one of the lowest versus other countries

E-Tail Organized retail penetration


Organized 3%
85%
9% 90% 80%
80%
70%
55%
60%
50% 40%
35%
40%
25%
30% 20%
15% 12%
20%
10%
Unorganized 0%
88%

India Retail Market split

Source : IBEF, Spark Capital Source : Bain & Co, Spark Capital

Page 20
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
While total retail market is expected to grow at 12% CAGR over next five years, Organised retail is expected to grow by more than 30% CAGR over
next five years due to aggressive e-commerce platforms and A-grade malls
Organized retail market is expected to be 25% of overall retail market by 2022E
Various Retail formats in India
from 12% currently
Retail market split
100%
3% 7% Retail Store Formats
90% 9%
18%
80%
70% Organized/Modern
Unorganized
Retail
88%
60%
75%
Small, typically Large, branded, modern.
50% family owned Includes e-tail
40%
FY18 FY24E
Brick & Mortar e-Tailing
Unorganized/Traditional Organized/Modern E-Tail Street Vendors

Source : IBEF, Spark Capital Street


vendors/hawkers Department Stores Specialty Stores
E-Commerce Sites/
that sell products on Online stores
Expect organised retail including E-tail market to reach Rs.25tn by FY24E; Organized the street. Very Merchandisers that Specialized stores;
retail (ex E-tail) segment is relevant for PML popular in lower tier typically sell general Electronics, sports Interest marketplace
areas. goods and groceries etc that provides a
110 convenient way of
India retail segment sizes (Rs. tn) 7 Kiosks Malls shopping for a wide
range of goods.
90 Super/Hypermarket
Box-like shops which s Largest retail
18 sell small, format, positioned
inexpensive items as a one stop shop
Hypermarkets are
70 like newspaper, combination of a
for goods (general
cigarettes, toffees, and specialized),
supermarket and
2 water, magazines entertainment, food
department stores
75 etc.
50 5 with all kinds of
Mom & Pop Stores grocery, household
Discount Stores
46 and general goods

30 Small, family owned Stores that sell at a


FY18 FY24E businesses selling discount, typically in
various sundry items bulk. Wholesale
Unorganized Organized (ex E-tail) E-Tail stores

Source : IBEF, Spark Capital

Page 21
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Increase in overall retail spend (function of increasing per capita income) and penetration of organised retail (increasing tax compliances) offers
long term growth visibility to Malls and E-tailers
Top seven cities accounts for 15% of overall retail spend in India whereas next 6
City-wise retail spend in India
cities account for 20% of overall retail spend
Total India Retail Spend Retail Spend (Rs.bn)

1,037
Top 7 cities Mumbai
14% Next 15 cities 2,243
9%

899
Next 50 cities NCR
Rest of India 11% 1,919
66%

549
Bangalore
1,155

Source: Knight Frank, Spark Capital 319


Hyderabad
692
City-wise organised retail penetration

319
27% Kolkata
26% 589
22%
238
18% Pune
15% 545
13%
11%
225
Chennai
507

Rest of India Hyderabad MMR Chennai Pune Bangalore NCR


- 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
City-wise Penetration of Modern Retail
FY14 FY19

Source: Knight Frank, Spark Capital

Page 22
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

Retail Industry Category wise market size and organized share- Relevant market size for malls is organised segment of Retail ex Grocery

Food and Grocery accounts for 65% of overall retail market; Relevant market for mall operators is organized segment of rest 35% (Retail ex Grocery)

Multiplex 0.4 tn 0.1 tn Jewelry 4.2 tn

0.5 tn

1.9 tn
Luggage 0.2 tn 0.1 tn Apparel 4.8 tn

Bags & accessories 0.6 tn 0.2 tn Electronics 7.4 tn


2.0 tn

Market Size

Organized
Footwear 0.7 tn Food & Grocery 33.5 tn Sector
0.1 tn
1.8 tn

Personal Care 1.1 tn


0.2 tn
Total Retail
Market Size 60.2 tn

Food & beverages 4.2 tn


7.7 tn
0.4 tn

Source : IBEF, Knight Frank, Spark Capital

Page 23
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Almost ~60% of a mall consumption is driven by Apparels, Footwear and accessories, Personal care and Food and Beverages (F&B) categories; 80 %
of the listed apparel brands in PMC malls are owned by Reliance brands, ABFRL, Future Retail, Trent and Arvind fashions
~60% of a mall consumption is driven by Apparels, Footwear and accessories, Brands prevalent in malls- Sub-brands of Reliance brands, ABFRL, Future Retail, Trent and
Personal care and Food and Beverages (F&B) categories Arvind fashions account for 80% of total brands
Consumption Apparel brands split in a PMC
Category Area Contribution Brands as a % of total
Contribution Arvind
Others
17%
Apparels 16% 24% 33% 20%

Footwear & accessories 8% 14% 27%


ABFRL
17%
Personal care 8% 11% 10% Reliance
20%
F&B 10% 12% 16%
Future Retail
Total 42% 61% 86% Trent 13%
13%
Source: Industry, Brands in PMC Bangalore, Spark Capital

Revenue growth of these five apparel retailers is in mid double digit in last three
High growth for these brands is driven by opening of exclusive stores
years and expected to grow in same range over next three years

Revenue Growth for major apparel players EBO store growth 3Y CAGR
38%
40% 40% 36%
35% 35%
29%
30% 25% 30%
25% 21% 24%
17% 18% 25% 20%
20% 17% 19%
14% 15% 15% 20%
15% 11% 12% 12% 15%
10%
15% 10%
10%
5% 10% 6%
0% 5%
Pantaloons Arvind ABFRL Page Trent Reliance V-Mart Retail 0%
Fashion Industries Fashion Madhura Arvind Trent Page V-Mart Retail Pantaloons Reliance
Lifestyle Fashion Industries Fashion
FY16-19 FY19-21E

Source: Industry, Spark Capital

Page 24
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

Footwear & accessories- One of the highest growing category in India; Growth is in high double digit esp. branded accessories category
Total market for fashion retail (footwear and accessories) has been growing in Growth is driven by EBOs in malls and fashion streets
double digit
2.0
Growth of fashion retail in India Channel-wise sales of footwear
0.6 LFS Online
1.5 7% 3%

0.2 2015-20 CAGR EBO/MBO


1.0
Footwear – 7% 18%
Accessories – 24%
2010-15 CAGR
0.5 0.1 Footwear – 15% 1.0
Accessories – 19% 0.7
0.4
0.0
2010 2015 2020 Traditional
73%
Footwear (Rs.tn) Accessories (Rs.tn)
Source: ATKearney, Khadim DHRP, Spark Capital

Sub-segment split of various accessories market in India 25% of accessories sales happen through malls

Accessories sales channels


Accessories sub-segments
E-Commerce High Streets
Hair accessories, 2% 10%
cuff-links
Malls
13%
25%

Socks,
handkerchiefs,
scarves, gloves, Bags, belts &
mufflers wallets
27% 60%
Unorganized Retail
Stores
63%

Source: Industry, Spark Capital

Page 25
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Personal Care – While personal care market is expected to grow by 9% CAGR over next five years, branded segment is expected to grow in double
digit
Market size for Personal care sub-segment Top personal care categories and brands

1,800
Personal Care segments (Rs.bn)
1,600 90
128
1,400 158

1,200 9% 173

1,000 225
47
60
800 74 218
101
600 121
11%
21 127 360
400 21 21
48 221
54
59
200 112 330
228
118
-
2012 2017 2022
Bath & Shower Hair Care Oral Care Skin Care
Others Makeup Cosmetics Fragrances Men's Grooming

Source: Industry, Spark Capital

About ~25% of personal care products are sold through modern trade channels; Mall operators are allocating higher space to personal care brands

Others
LFS – Large format stores
LFS MBO – Multi-brand outlet
75% 3% 22% 14% 27%
EBO – Exclusive-brand outlet
Direct Sales
General Trade Online Modern Trade 22%

Salon & Spa


MBO/EBO…
9%

Source: Industry, Spark Capital

Page 26
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Luxury Goods – Segment grew at 18% CAGR in last three years; Given paucity of Grade A malls, malls with higher footfalls offers a launch pad to
international brands who wants to enter in India;
A typical mall allocated 5% of the space to super-luxury brands and 30% to semi-
Luxury goods market is growing in double digit in India
luxury brands
Grade-A mall approx. area split
Luxury Goods (Rs. bn)
Luxury
Mass Segment 5% 10% 769
20%

18% 584
Semi-Premium
30% 16%
358
227

Mid Segment
2013 2016 2019 2022
45%
Source: Industry, Spark Capital Source: Industry, Spark Capital

Marquee brands who entered in India by leasing space in malls Luxury goods- Evolving and high growth segment for malls

Mall operator Year of entry ✓ Luxury goods market grew at 18% CAGR in last three years
and expected to grow in double digit over next five years as
H&M Select CityWalk 2015 well.
✓ Malls typically allocate ~35% of area to luxury brands.
Armani Exchange Select CityWalk 2016 ✓ In India, lot of international brands launch their pilot store in
malls before starting EBOs outside malls as malls provides
Aldo HSP/Palladium 2003 brands insights on Indian consumers spending pattern.
✓ Also, it is seen that consumers prefer to buy luxury good from
Uniqlo Ambience Mall 2018 malls (“Try and buy”) than E-tailing due to high ticket size.
✓ We believe high proportion of international brands will drive
Aptronix HSP/Palladium 2008 the overall consumption in PML malls .

Apple Maker Maxity 2020E

Source: Industry, Spark Capital

Page 27
KEY STRENGTHS

Page 28
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

# PML malls are amongst the largest mall in each of the city of operation offering shopping and entertainment options

Top five malls in PML’s city of operation; PML malls have leasable area of atleast 0.4msf and are one of the largest malls in each of the city of operation

Brigade Group – The Orion Mall 1.10 msf 1.10 msf

Phoenix Mills – Phoenix Market City 1.00 msf 1.00 msf

UB City 0.95 msf 0.95 msf

Mantri Developers – Mantri Square Mall 0.90 msf 0.90 msf Phoenix Mills – Phoenix Market City - Pune 1.20 msf

Forum Mall - Koramangala 0.80 msf City Group (Amanora) – Amanora Town Centre 1.20 msf
0.80 msf

Magarpatta City – Seasons Mall 0.60 msf


Phoenix Mills – Phoenix Market City 1.00 msf Deepak Group –
Creaticity (Ishanya) 0.60 msf
Virtuous Retail Services (Xander Group) –
1.00 msf Dorabjee Estates –
VR Mall
Royale Heritage Mall 0.40 msf
Express Infrastructure –
0.80 msf
Express Avenue Mall
Prestige Group – Phoenix MarketCity Lucknow 1.00 msf
0.60 msf
Forum Vijaya Mall
Allied Housing – Sahara Prime City – Sahara Ganj Mall 0.50 msf
0.50 msf
Grand Marina Mall
Halwasiya Group – One Awadh
0.40 msf
Center(Lucknow Central)
Phoenix Mills – Phoenix Market City 1.10 msf
E-City – Fun Republic 0.40 msf
Phoenix Mills – HSP & Palladium 0.70 msf
Phoenix Mills – Phoenix Mall
0.40 msf
(Phoenix United)
Runwal Group – R City Mall 0.70 msf

K Raheja Constructions – Infiniti Mall 0.70 msf

Obseroi Realty – Oberoi Mall 0.60 msf

Source: Propequity, Spark Capital

Page 29
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

# All of PML’s malls (except United malls) are amongst the top 20 malls in India by trading density

While HSP, PMCs Bangalore & Chennai have high ATDs, PMC Pune & Kurla are slowly catching up with the all India average on this front

Trading Density (Rs.psf per month)

Rs.1,000 to Rs. 1,500 Rs.1,500 - Rs.2,000 Greater than Rs.2,000

Mall Name Location Mall Name Location Mall Name Location

Orion Mall Bangalore PMC Bangalore Bangalore Select City Walk New Delhi

PMC Pune Pune PMC Chennai Chennai HSP & Palladium Mumbai

R City Mumbai Infiniti Mall - Mumbai Mumbai Lulu Mall Cochin

VR Mall Chennai Chennai DLF Mall of India Noida Ambience Mall Gurugram

Vivina Mall Thane Inorbit Malad Mumbai Oberoi Mall Mumbai

PMC Mumbai Mumbai Elante Mall Chandigarh Forum Mall - Bangalore Bangalore

South City Mall Kolkata VR Mall Bangalore Bangalore

Inorbit - Hyderabad Hyderabad

Inorbit - Navi Mumbai Navi Mumbai

Forum Mall - Kolkata Kolkata

Ahmedabad One Ahmedabad

World Trade Park Jaipur

Source: Industry Reports, Spark Capital

Page 30
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

# Presence at well thought out locations with catchment area having high per capita income population

HSP & Palladium Mumbai has unique location with virtually no competition in South Mumbai; PMC Bangalore is present in Whitefield which is IT hub in the city

2 HSP & Primary catchment(s) for HSP & Palladium at Lower Parel
1 Palladium
• HSP & Palladium, Phoenix’s flagship mall in Mumbai is uniquely placed to
service the affluent population of South Mumbai as it is in the only tier I
mall in the region. South Mumbai has one of the highest per capita income
in Mumbai. The mall houses some of the best international brands and
panders to the shopping, dining and lifestyle needs of the who’s who of
Mumbai.
2
Primary catchment(s) for PMC Mumbai at Kurla
1 • PMC Mumbai is a quick drive from Bandra-Kurla Complex, domestic and
international airports. It is well - connected by the Eastern Freeway, Eastern
Express Highway, Western Express Highway, Santacruz-Chembur Link Road,
and by the Mumbai metro.
• Although there are fewer malls in this micromarket, the mall has struggled
3 to increase consumption due to delayed execution of the metro project.

Primary catchment(s) for PMC Bangalore at Whitefield 3


Market City
• PMC Bangalore is situated in micromarket of Whitefield, ITPL Main Road Bangalore
(the IT hubs of the city), which serves to be the primary catchment for the
mall.
• In close proximity to Mahadevapura, Marathahalli (densely populated), Old
Madras Road and Indiranagar (affluent population with access to metro)
• Although Bangalore has a high density of malls, PMC has the reputation of
being one of the largest ‘one-stop-shop’ for shopping, dining and 1
2
entertainment.

Page 31
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

# Catchment - PMC Pune and Chennai mall are present in catchment areas with many IT parks in the vicinity
PMC Pune is in Viman Nagar which is very close to most affluent area in city (Koregaon Park) and near IT corridor (Kharadi Trade Centre) whereas PMC Chennai in Velachery is
close to Tidel Park (Chennai’s IT hub)

Primary catchment(s) for PMC Pune at Viman Nagar

• PMC Pune’s main catchment comprises of the Kharadi Trade Centre


Market City (5km away), which is one of Pune’s largest IT districts.
Pune
• Micromarkets like Viman Nagar, Wagholi, Kharadi are high consumption
markets and PMC is placed in close proximity to all of them.
• PMC Pune is home to a lot of top class Indian and international brands
and is the only tier 1 mall in the locality, thus pandering to all affluent
micro-market pockets in and around a 15km radius.

Primary catchment(s) for PMC Chennai at Velachery

• PMC Chennai is located in Velachery, known for upscale residential projects


and is in close proximity to the Tidel Park – Taramani - OMR belt (Chennai’s
IT hub), thus attracting consumption from all these micromarkets upto
Market City
Meenambakkam (airport). Chennai

• Close proximity to affluent micromarkets like Adyar, Besant Nagar, Guindy


etc.

• Residential micromarkets to the south of PMC (even over 10km away, given
low road traffic) tend to frequent PMC and Palladium in Chennai as it is the
only tier 1 mall in the region.

Page 32
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
# Transformation of Malls into Family Entertainment Centres (FEC) to thwart competition from E-tailing; PML’s USP is to focus on offering a holistic
environment for family entertainment than just being shopping hotspot
Due to threat from E-Tailing, Higher focus on entertainment (Multiplexes and play
Malls to become ‘destinations’ that sell both products and experiences
area) and F&B to attract quality footfalls
Indian malls offerings Past Present Future
Mall space dedicated for FECs
45% 40%
Shopping ✓ ✓ ✓
✓ ✓ ✓
40%
F&B
35%

✓ ✓
30% 25%
25%
Events

✓ ✓
20% 16%
15%
Entertainment Family
10%
10%
5% Services ✓
0%
2008-09 2014-15 Currently 2022-23E Mall Management ✓ ✓

Major malls in India with mall space allocated to F&B and Entertainment options

Mall-wise space allocation (as % of total area)


50%

40%
10%
30%
20% 11%
20% 13% 11% 8% 7% 6%
30%
10% 21%
16% 13% 13% 16% 16% 15%
0%
Orion Mall, Bangalore DLF Promenade, Delhi DLF Mall of India, Noida Select City Walk, Delhi Phoenix MarketCity, Phoenix MarketCity, Pune Inorbit Malad, Mumbai HSP, Mumbai
Bangalore

Entertainment F&B

Source: JLL, Spark Capital

Page 33
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Currently almost 25-30% of mall space is dedicated to FEC options; Not just PML, even other major malls are focusing on it to attract quality
footfalls to the mall
FEC offerings by major malls in India Adventure indoor sports and Fun zone for kids in India

Mall FEC Offerings

Sparky Ice Skating


Lulu Mall
Bowling alley, arcade

Smaash
Orion Mall
Timezone

Smaash

Fun City
DLF Mall of India
Snow World

Canvas Laugh Club

DLF Promenade KiddyWorld


Lulu Mall
Hamleys

Elante Smaash

Fun City

Source: Spark Capital

Page 34
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
FECs options available in PML malls; Multiplexes, Live music concerts and gaming areas (bowling, snooker, cricket nets, arcades) are the most
common entertainment options offered by malls in India
PML currently has play area options for Kids and Adults in its malls along with
Live music shows/concerts are common in malls now a days
multiplexes

Bowling/Arcade Flight Simulation


Music shows at HSP

Ice-skating, Interactive Indoor


Indoor Ice Park Play Area

Bowling/Arcade Indoor Play Area/Arcade Live music at Phoenix


Market City, Bangalore

Rock Climbing/
Adventure Sport Indoor Play Area

Stand-up comedy at Phoenix


Market City, Chennai
Haunted House Indoor Play Area

Children's Indoor
Amusement park Indoor Play Area for Kids

DJ at Phoenix Market City, Pune


Bowling/Arcade/VR

Page 35
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

Malls internationally have started to focus on providing services in addition to entertainment which can aid in recurring footfalls
Globally malls have become ‘destinations’ that sell both products and experiences; Technology driven USPs to optimize experience and mall management; FECs are allotted as
high as 40% of GLA of mall
Gaming, gym, clubbing
Simon Property Group (SPG) said it will invest $5 million in the entertainment company Allied Esports, which will create
lounges for competitive video game events at Simon Malls.
Working with Niantic - the company behind AR game "Harry Potter: Wizards Unite: - to turn 200 of its shopping centres
into in-game locations that players can visit during the gameplay.
Simon in a press release listed its latest investments: in gym operator Life Time, dining and entertainment venue
Pinstripes, e-gaming company Allied Esports, Sports Illustrated and the trendy membership club Soho House.

Robots

SM Supermalls raises the bar in customer service with the introduction of SAM, the country’s first-ever in-mall smart
robot – launched at SM Megamall; SAM is an artificial intelligent (AI) humanoid robot programmed to deliver a smoother,
more personalized and efficient interaction with customers. “SAM is easy to approach and has answers to almost
everything SM mall related, making shopping more seamless and fun for our customers.”

Cryptocurrency

Emaar Group (known for the Dubai Mall) is releasing a new blockchain-based referral and loyalty platform.
The new EMR platform will reward Emaar customers with tokens for their loyalty and business referrals and an additional
utility token will act as a multi-industry referral and loyalty system, spanning Emaar’s wide array of available services,
including retail, leisure, hospitality and residential development.

Focus on new dining concepts, more F&B options

Some of the biggest mall owners in the U.S., such as Simon Property Group, Taubman and Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield,
are investing in new food hall concepts, as they increasingly devote space at their properties to entertainment uses and
dining.
Lulu Group’s Line Investments & Property introduces Forsan Central Mall; Designed around the concept of a bamboo
forest with a restful ‘garden in the city’ ambience, the Mall is located strategically in central part/area Khalifa city.

Page 36
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Retail-tainment concept- Amusement parks and Recreation centres are planned inside malls internationally; Dubai malls have Aquariums inside
malls whereas Gyms and Salons are a very common in European malls
FEC offering in some of the marquee malls globally

Events Family Entertainment Services

Aquaria – Central Phuket


Salons in Westfield, London
Live art battle

Aquarium - Dubai Mall

Trapezoid artists in a
French Westfield mall

Gym

Live music at Metro Manila


Amusement Park at SM
Mall - Phillipines

Source: Spark Capital

Page 37
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
# Key USP of PML is its In-house mall management team; Mall management is the only way to differentiate from Grade B and C malls leading to
higher foot falls, steady increase in consumption and hence, higher revenue share for PML
Below framework laid out key functions in mall management which is the key factor to attract footfalls in the malls and kick starting the virtuous i.e.
Better mall management → Higher footfalls → Higher consumption→ Attracting high quality Tenants/Brands→ Higher revenue share → Higher spend on mall management

Strategic Method of Mall Management

Strategic Framework for Mall Operation Differentiating factors in a mall

▪ Location, with access to relevant catchment


▪ Right sizing
Mall Ideation Mall Management Mall Maintenance
▪ Mall positioning – Luxury, semi-premium, mid-segment,
mass market, discount
Common Area
Location Analysis Category Mix decision Maintenance (CAM) ▪ Themes
▪ F&B, FEC offerings
Mall Tenant Power Management
▪ Tenant Mix – Identifying and pandering to the right
Tenant Mix decision
tenants to drive consumption
▪ Category Mix – Getting the right categories with higher
Mall Positioning Tenants Churning Water Management revenue share (apparel, personal care) to drive rentals
▪ Brand Mix – In line with mall positioning, optimized to
Store Relocation Sanitation & Hygiene provide best rentals

Store Resizing

Good Anchors/FEC lead to Optimizing category mix leads to Strong brand mix leads to

Mall
Management
Increased Footfalls Increased Revenue Share Increase Rentals

Source: Spark Capital

Page 38
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Selection of Anchor tenants is of paramount importance as Anchors not only de-risks mall operators by occupying large area but also improve
overall footfalls and revenue for the mall; Changing Anchor tenants with changing consumer preferences is the key to maintain steady footfall rate
Approximately 45% of the mall space is occupied by Anchors (including Changing trends with mall anchors
multiplex)
▪ Malls used to allot large land parcel to anchors like Big Bazaar, Lifestyle. Now there is an
Approximated area split in a PHNX mall effort to reduce land allocated to these brands that have lower trading densities.
▪ Average size of store for anchor brands : 20,000-50,000 sq.ft. Fast fashion retail brands (Zara,
Anchors (Ex
Gucci, H&M) have stores that are typically under 20,000 sq.ft but have higher per sq.ft sales.
Inline Stores
Multiplex) ▪ Fall in tenures of anchor tenants over the years. Mall operators looking for flexibility in tenant
30%
35% mix.
▪ Revenue share for new age anchor tenants is ~20-30% higher than that of the past thus
F&B translating to better rental income for malls, and bridging the gap of rentals between anchors
Other FEC Multiplex and inline stores.
15%
10% 10%

Source: Spark Capital

Traditionally, anchors used to demand large space commitment for longer


Anchor tenants needs to be churned to maintain steady rate of footfalls in the mall tenures which is changing now as mall operators need to adapt to
changing consumer preferences
Apparel/Lifestyle Brands
2014 2019 2000-2005
18-20 years
9-10 years

2010-2015
12-15 years
5-6 years

Currently
F&B Brands
8-10 years
2-3 years

Anchors Other Brands


Source: Spark Capital

Page 39
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Category mix change aids in overall increase in consumption as well as revenue share for mall operators; Malls have replaced
Hypermarkets/Supermarkets space with Fast fashion and Personal care categories as Hypermarkets have low trading density and revenue share
Malls operators de-risk themselves by allocating higher space to anchors and supermarket
Category wise area leased and consumption contribution in mall at the start of mall and gradually churning to higher revenues share categories
Consumption
Category Area Occupied
Contribution More anchor stores,
Hypermarket/
Apparels 16% 24% Supermarket

Fast fashion, personal


Hypermarkets/Supermarkets 16% 12% care brands, accessories
(Watches/Bags)
F&B 10% 12%
Luxury brands, Fine
dining, Services
Personal care 8% 11% (Salon/Spa etc),

Bags, Accessories & Jewellery 6% 10% Source: Spark Capital

Malls have allocated higher space to Apparel and Personal care whereas space for
Entertainment (Ex. Multiplex) 11% 8% Supermarkets and Electronics declined in last five years
Change in area
Multiplex 13% 7% Area allocated for categories 2014 2019
allocated
Hypermarkets/Supermarkets 21% 16% 
Electronics 7% 5% Apparels 14% 16% 
Multiplex 15% 13% 
Footwear 4% 5% Entertainment (Ex. Multiplex) 7% 11% 
F&B 7% 10% 
Lifestyle 5% 4% Personal care 4% 8% 
Electronics 10% 8% 
Lifestyle 10% 7% 
Others 4% 2%
Footwear 4% 4% 
Accessories (Jewelry and watches) 6% 5% 
Total 100% 100%
Others 2% 2% 
Source: Industry, Spark Capital

Page 40
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
# Mall Management - Revenue Share and average trading density for various categories in mall; Personal care, footwear & accessories and apparels
are among the highest revenue contributor for a mall operator
Mall operators prefer to add categories which fall in the sweet spot of optimal revenue share & average trading density which provides the best rental potential
Category Name Sub-category Brands Revenue Share % Average Trading Density (psfpm)
Cosmetics Sephora, MAC, Health & Glow 10%-14% 1,200-2,500
Personal care Optics Vision Express, Titan Eye 12%-16% 1,200-2,500
Salon & Spa Forrest Essentials, Bath & Body Works 10%-16% 1,000-2,500
Leather bags & Accessories Hidesign, Aldo 10%-15% 1,750-2,200
Accessories (Jewelry and watches) Watches (SBOs/MBOs) Titan, Omega, Rado, Tissot, Ethos 5%-10% 1,800-4,000
Jewelry Tanishq, Reliance Jewels, Swarovski 2%-3% 5,000-8,500
Biba, Arvind, Soch, Indian Terrain,
National 8%-12% 900-1,500
Apparels Madura
International Gucci, Zara, H&M, Levis, Lee Cooper 10%-16% 1,200-2,200
Casual/Formal Bata, Hush Puppies, Aldo, Metro, Mochi 10%-12% 1,000-2,500
Footwear
Sports Adidas, Nike, Puma, Reebok 7%-10% 1,500-2,500
Arcade, bowling Amoeba, Blu-O 12.5%-20% 500-700
Entertainment (Ex. Multiplex)
Skating, cricket nets Smaaash, Fun City 15%-20% 500-700
QSR McDonald's, KFC, Dunkin Donuts 6%-10% 600-1,000

F&B Casual Dinings/ Cafes CCD, Starbucks 10%-15% 600-800


Mainland China, Kabab Factory,
Fine Dining 12%-18% 1,000-2,500
Rajdhani
Multiplex Movies & Cinema PVR, Inox 11%-16% 500-700
Croma, Reliance Digital, E-Zone, The
Multi-Brand Outlets 3%-4% 2,500-5,000
Electronics Mobile Store
Single-Brand Outlets Apple, Bose, Sony, Samsung 2%-3% 3,000-6,000
Lifestyle/Home Décor Home Décor & Furniture Home Centre, @Home 6%-8% 1,000-1,200
Large Department Stores Food Bazaar, More, Reliance Fresh 4%-7% 7,00-1,200
Hypermarkets/Supermarkets
Super/Hypermarkets Spar, Star Bazaar, Big Bazaar 5%-9% 1,000-1,500
Gifts, Books, MBO sports shops Hallmark,Crossword, Planet Sports,
Others 7%-15% 650-1,800
& Others William Penn
Source: Industry, Spark Capital

Page 41
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
# Mall Management – PML has focused on active mall management, by churning out & relocation of stores to maintain optimal category and brand
mix
Mall management strategies adopted by PML across various malls

Mall name Key steps taken by PML to increase footfalls and trading density in its malls

✓ Churn about 10% of space every year by closing contract with underperforming stores.
✓ Relocated designer labels to first floor for better visibility which led to improved overall fashion retail sales
✓ Placed “Zara” near the entry
HSP and Palladium mall
✓ For instance, PML replaced “Big Bazaar” with “H&M”. This led to doubling of average trading density for the same space allocated
before to hypermarket
✓ Refurbished existing PVR malls and offering multiple screens with recliners and in-house gourmet food offerings.

✓ Significant area was allocated to jewellery stores which has high average trading density but low margins for PML. Also, jewellery
PMC Chennai shoppers are unlikely to spend time for other categories. Hence, PML churned out lot of jewellery stores having low sales rate.
✓ Parking walls painted frequently to provide novel experience to shoppers.

✓ At the start of mall, departmental stores are generally allocated larger space and more often, they are one of the anchor tenants.
✓ As malls are matured, incremental space is given to high revenue share categories as department stores have lower trading density
PMC Pune and margin for mall operators
✓ One of the departmental store in Pune mall was resized by more than half, however overall rentals still doubled due to area allocated
to high trading density apparel categories.

✓ Higher discounts for group parties/dinner to attract footfalls.


PMC Kurla ✓ Fine dining concept such as 212, Bar Bar and Shizu San were thought out to fill the vacant space in the mall. This led to increased
footfalls and in turn led to entry of other food chains in the mall.

✓ Dedicated spot for photography


Common themes ✓ Shuttles service from different locations in city
✓ Comedy clubs and live events during weekdays to attract footfalls

Source: Propequity, Spark Capital

Page 42
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
# Mixed Used Development - The PMC Kurla strategy of clubbing malls & office assets is being replicated across other PML malls, with almost
~2msf of office space to be added to complement the current mall spaces
PML plans to add office offering in all of its operational malls

Operational Office Mixed use as a % of


Mall Office asset area (msf) Remarks
Asset total asset
Mixed Use Retail to maintain footfalls

Mall developers globally adopted mixed-use retail HSP & Palladium Phoenix House 0.2 22%
development strategy to drive footfalls in the core
mall asset. Paragon Plaza Key
Paragon Plaza,
PMC Mumbai 1.5 58% Tenants - Uber, Grofers,
The idea was to optimize the mall space to maintain Centrium, Art Guild
Xiaomi
footfalls & sweat the asset with other rental
generating options like an office space, or a for-sale
residential development.

For instance, PMC Chennai also has The Crest, a


residential development accompanying the mall. Upcoming Office Mixed use as a % of
Mall Office asset area (msf) Remarks
Going forward, the company is looking to add ~2msf Asset total asset
of office area in various PMCs around the country.
Whitefield
When PML acquires land for a mixed-use PMC Whitefield 0.35 26%
Commercial
development, payback period is calculated
considering revenue potential from retail offering
alone. However, the addition of commercial offering PMC Hebbal Hebbal Commercial 0.7 37%
in the same asset supplements this revenue stream
and, ensures proper & full utilization of asset space,
and adds to footfalls.
PMC Wakad Wakad Commercial 0.5 31%

Also has 3 residential


The Crest -
PMC Chennai 0.42 26% towers as a part of
Commercial
Crest

Source: Industry, Spark Capital

Page 43
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Threat from existing and upcoming malls – Given lower supply of Grade-A malls, threat remains low-moderate for PML malls except PMC
Bangalore & Kurla
Threat Level post new mall
Mall Name Micromarket Noteworthy malls in 10-15 km radius Distance Operational Upcoming
additions

Atria - The Millenium Mall 2.1km Jio World Centre


Orchid City Centre 3.9km Oberoi Worli Mall
HSP & Palladium Lower Parel Moderate
Link Square Mall - Bandra West 9.3km Maker Maxity
CR2 Mall 9.5km
VR Bengaluru 0.2km DLF Mall
Soul Space Arena 3.4km Embassy Mall
Park Square Mall 4.6km Fortuna Mall
PMC Bangalore Whitefield Inorbit Whitefield 5.2km Salarpuria Platinum Mall High
Forum Shantiniketan 5.5km Fortune City Mall
Orion Avenue 8.7km
Forum Value Mall 9.2km
Grand Square 2.3km Esthell Mall
Citi Centre 7.9km The Gateway Mall

PMC Forum Vijaya Mall 9.9km Aurum Plaza Moderate


Velachery
Chennai/Palladium Express Avenue 11km
Ampa SkyWalk 12km
VR Chennai 13km
R City Mall 3.8km Jio World Centre
Link Square Mall - Bandra West 8.5km Oberoi Worli Mall
PMC Mumbai Kurla DB Mall 10.8km Boulevard - Xander Group High
Infiniti Mall 13.6km Maker Maxity
Oberoi Mall 14.7km
Source: Propequity, Spark Capital

Page 44
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

Threat from existing and upcoming malls – PMC Wakad is the only mall in North Pune, with access to a strong catchment

Threat Level post new mall


Mall Name Micromarket Noteworthy malls in 10-15 km radius Distance Operational Upcoming
additions

Sky Max Mall 0.7km Plaza Center

Vascon Mariplex Mall 2.9km Runwal Gold

PMC Pune Viman Nagar Time Square Mall 5.1km Podeam - Panchshil Moderate

Seasons Mall 7.4km

Amanora Mall 7.5km

Emerald Mall 2.6km Unitech Mall

Gardens Galleria 7.3km Galaxy Mall

Saharaganj Mall 10.6km Sahara Plaza Extension


Phoenix United
Alambagh
Lucknow Moderate
Lulu Mall 12.1km Experio

Fun Republic Mall 13km

City Mall 14.3km

Galaxy Tower 3.9km


Phoenix United Mahanagar
Low
Bareilly Colony
Amrapali Mall 11km

Esplanade

PMC Wakad Wakad Runwal Gold Low

Signature Mall

Source: Propequity, Spark Capital Under Development

Page 45
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Threat from existing and upcoming malls – Although Palladium Ahmedabad is a luxury offering, it is expected to face stiff competition from the
current (and upcoming) malls in the vicinity
Threat Level post new mall
Mall Name Micromarket Noteworthy malls in 10-15 km radius Distance Operational Upcoming
additions

Elements Mall 4.0km DLF Mall

Orion Mall 7.8km Embassy Mall


PMC Hebbal Hebbal Moderate
Orion Avenue 9.1km Fortuna Mall

RMZ Galleria Mall 9.6km

Zodiac Mall 6.7km DLF Mall


Indore-Bhopal
PMC Indore Treasure Island Mall 8km Omaxe City Mall Moderate
Bypass
Central Mall 11.3km City Homes Mall

Singapore Mall 2.0km Sahara Plaza Extension

City Mall 2.4km Experio

One Awadh Centre 2.9km Unitech Mall

PMC Lucknow Gomti Nagar Fun Republic Mall 4.7km Galaxy Mall Moderate
Wave Mall 5.0km

Umrao Mall 8.6km

Star Mall 8.7km

SG Mall 1.4km Metro Mall

The Acropolis 1.8km Olympus Mall

Palladium Himalaya Mall 2.4km Central Square


Thaltej High
Ahmedabad Shakti The Mall 2.5km

Ahmedabad One Mall 3.5km

A-Square Mall 4.8km


Source: Propequity, Spark Capital Under Development

Page 46
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

# Return metrics ratio- As most of the PML malls have been operational for 10+ years, pre-tax return metrics have stabilized to over 15%

HSP is a cash cow for the company with pre-tax CROIC of over 30%, while there is significant scope of increase return metrics in United Lucknow & Bareilly, and PMC Mumbai

HSP & Palladium PMC Chennai PMC Bangalore PMC Pune United Lucknow PMC Mumbai United Bareilly

Number of years into operation 20 8 10 10 11 10 11

Trading Density (Rs.psfpm) 2,943 1,505 1,680 1,334 1,113 1,161 827

Rental Income (Rs.mn) 3,432 1,529 1,392 1,589 292 1,216 215

EBITDA (Rs.mn) 2,768 1,858 1,337 1,358 232 1,276 141

EBIT (Rs.mn) 2,326 1,669 1,157 1,139 174 949 92

Invested Capital (Rs.mn) 8,208 6,378 5,494 6,596 1,267 10,939 1,371

Pre-Tax RoIC % 27.7% 21.3% 20.4% 17.3% 13.4% 8.7% 6.5%

Pre-Tax CROIC % 33.7% 29.1% 24.3% 20.6% 18.3% 11.7% 10.3%

Source: Industry, Spark Capital

Page 47
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

Simplification of structure : Stake buy-out exercise is almost over


Stake-buyout completed between FY13-18 and as a part of the restructuring in FY20E, PML will amalgamate Phoenix Hospitality Co. Pvt. Ltd. (PHCPL) using share swap
(implied value of ~Rs.4bn) subjected to approval.

Source: Propequity, Spark Capital

Page 48
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

# Simplified structure – Most malls are fully owned by PML


PML has progressively increased its stake to 100% in all of its SPVs except Chennai malls and under-development malls as a part of the CPPIB JV; In total, it has spent ~Rs.16bn
for this exercise
Stake FY10 FY20E Cash outflow for stake acquisition (Rs.bn)
Malls 3.2 3.1
Cumulative
HSP & Palladium 100% 100% Rs 15.8bn
3.0
PMC Mumbai 24% 100%
PMC Bangalore 28% 51% 2.8 2.7 2.7
PMC Pune 59% 100% 2.6 2.5
PMC Chennai 33% 50% 2.4 2.4
2.4
Palladium Chennai 29% 50%
Phoenix United - Lucknow 73% 100% 2.2

Phoenix United - Bareilly 73% 100% 2.0


Offices FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

Fountainhead - Pune 58% 100% Source: Spark Capital


Paragon Plaza 44% 100%
Art Guild House 56% 100% Most of the assets are fully-owned by PML
Centrium 56% 100%
✓ Till 2010, PML adopted strategy of having lower stake due to smaller balance sheet
Phoenix House 100% 100% size.
Residential ✓ Over the past few years, PML has increased its stake in all of its SPVs and invested
almost Rs.16bn between FY14-19.
OBW & Kessaku 70% 100%
✓ Further, as a part of the restructuring in FY20E, PML will amalgamate Phoenix
The Crest 34% 50% Hospitality Co. Pvt. Ltd. (PHCPL) using share swap (implied value of ~Rs.4bn) subjected
Hotels to approval.
✓ Post this, PML will have 100% stake in most of the asset except Chennai malls and
Courtyard by Marriott 21% 100% 50% stake in malls under development with CPPIB.
St.Regis 53% 73%
Source: Propequity, Spark Capital

Page 49
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Mall Business model- Mall business is very capital intensive and requires upfront capex resulting in high barriers to entry; Asset level return reaches cost of
capital by 8-9th year of operations; Effective mall management is the most important differentiator between Grade A and other malls

Business model for a typical Grade A mall in a Tier-1 city in India

Mall Capex assumptions


Mall area in msf 1.0
Mall Business Model- Higher
Land cost (Rs.mn) 2,500
barriers to entry due to high
Construction cost (Rs.mn) 4,000 upfront capex and back-ended
Total cost (Rs.mn) 6,500 returns
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 ✓ Prima facie, malls business
seems plain vanilla renting
Cash outflow (Rs.mn) -2,500 -1,200 -1,000 -1,000 -800 out shops to tenants which
makes it quite easy for
existing land owner to
Cash Inflow enter.
Occupancy % 50% 65% 85% 95% 95% 95% ✓ Inline with Global scenario,
only Grade A malls have
Lease rent psfpm (Rs.) 100 110 121 133 146 161 been able to thwart
Total lease rentals (Rs.mn) 600 858 1,234 1,517 1,669 1,836 competition from E-tailers.
✓ A typical Grade-A mall
EBITDA (Rs.mn) 480 738 1,114 1,397 1,549 1,716 requires high upfront capex
EBITDA margins % 80% 86% 90% 92% 93% 93% and return ratio surpasses
cost of capital only by
Depreciation (Rs.mn) 160 160 160 160 160 160 seventh or eighth year of
EBIT (Rs.mn) 320 578 954 1,237 1,389 1,556 operation making it difficult
for other players to enter.
✓ Return metrics increase
RoIC % 4% 7% 11% 14% 16% 18% non-linearly from eighth
year.
CRoIC % 6% 9% 13% 16% 18% 20%
Non-linear increase in
Returns metrics < cost of capital
return metrics

Source : Spark Capital

Page 50
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Top Mall Operators: Given the high barriers to entry and long gestation period characteristic of a mall, very few players have been able to attain reasonable scale
in this industry

Top mall operators in India

Forum Mall Nexus Malls Inorbit Malls


Phoenix Mills DLF VR Group
(Prestige Group) (Blackstone) (K Raheja)

Number of
malls
10 6 9 7 4 5

Gross
leasable 7.1 5.9 5.0 4.2 3.5 ~3.5
area (msf)

▪ Bangalore ▪ Mumbai ▪ Ahmedabad ▪ New Delhi ▪ Bangalore ▪ Malad


▪ Chennai ▪ Bangalore ▪ Amritsar ▪ Noida ▪ Chennai ▪ Bangalore
▪ Hyderabad ▪ Pune ▪ Pune ▪ Gurugram ▪ Surat ▪ Vashi

Locations ▪ Mangalore ▪ Chennai ▪ Navi Mumbai ▪ Chandigarh ▪ Punjab ▪ Hyderabad


▪ Mysore ▪ Lucknow ▪ Chandigarh ▪ Vadodara
▪ Udaipur ▪ Bareilly ▪ Indore
▪ Cochin ▪ Bhubaneshwar

Source : Spark Capital

Page 51
GROWTH DRIVERS

Page 52
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Consumption proxy- A typical PML mall houses around ~175-200 domestic and international brands across various categories; PML has almost
equal proportion (Higher in Palladium mall concept) of international and domestic brands
We have analyzed brands/retailers housed in HSP & Palladium and PMC Pune ; Of total brands, HSP & Palladium and PMC malls have ~65% and 45% of international brands
Number of
Brand split at a typical PMC Categories Foreign Domestic
Brand split at HSP brands
Apparel 44% 56% 54
Footwear & accessories 40% 60% 43
Domesti F&B 31% 69% 26
c International
37% 43% Personal Care 56% 44% 16
Domesti
c Other (Sports, gifts ,books, toys) 57% 43% 13
International 57%
63% Electronics 67% 33% 6
Supermarket/Hypermarket 25% 75% 4
Home Decor 0% 100% 2
Source: Spark Capital

Infact, ~65% of brands housed in PMC Pune are private retailers; PML acts a good proxy to play consumption growth in unlisted space

Number of
Categories Listed Private
Listed-Private brand split at PMC brands
Apparel 59% 41% 54

Footwear & accessories 31% 69% 43


Listed F&B 8% 92% 26
36%
Personal Care 13% 88% 16
Private
64% Other (Sports, gifts ,books, toys) 36% 64% 13

Electronics 17% 83% 6

Supermarket/Hypermarket 75% 25% 4

Home Décor 0% 100% 2


Source: Spark Capital

Page 53
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
We have analysed brands in PMC Pune mall and split in 4 buckets below; While ~35% of the brands are in listed entities, rest are owned by private
companies. PML acts a good proxy to play growth in these private brands/retailers
International brands are growing the fastest in organized retail market in India; Of the total brands in PMC mall, Only 19% of international brands have JVs with Indian listed
partners

International Domestic

Watches &
Personal Care:
Accessories:

Footwear &
Footwear:
Accessories: PMC brands
profile
Listed

Apparel: Apparel:

F&B: International Domestic F&B:


Listed Listed

Apparel/
19% 17% Entertainment:
Accessories :

Bags & 23% 41% F&B:


Accessories
International Domestic
Personal Care: Unlisted Unlisted
Personal Care:
Unlisted

Apparel: Apparel:

F&B: Bags &


Accessories:
Watches &
Footwear:
Accessories

Source: Propequity, Spark Capital

Page 54
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
# Gap between consumption and rental is much wider when HSP is excluded, thus providing good headroom for catch up of rentals for the other
malls
Gap between consumption and rental is much wider when HSP is excluded, thus
Rental trails consumption, with a slight catch up in the last three years
providing good headroom for catch up of rentals for the other malls
Aggregate rental & consumption trends Aggregate rental & consumption trends
300 267 450
388
249 400 357
250 229 318
214 350 295
195 300 266
200 233
159 208 250 205
271
150 187 200 244
171 213
158 150 186 196
137 159
100 100 100 100
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

Aggregate Consumption (Indexed) Aggregate Rental (Indexed) Consumption ex. HSP (Indexed) Rental ex. HSP (Indexed)

Source: Company, Spark Capital. Note – HSP and 4 MarketCity malls considered Source: Company, Spark Capital. Note – Four MarketCity malls considered

While rental growth has surpassed consumption growth for HSP/Palladium, rental growth lags consumption growth in all other PML malls

HSP and Palladium CAGR PMC Bangalore CAGR PMC Pune CAGR since PMC Mumbai CAGR since PMC Chennai CAGR since
since FY13 since FY13 FY13 FY13 FY13
11% 67%
12% 25% 22% 18% 25% 23% 70%
18%
10% 60% 53%
20% 18% 20%
15% 50%
8% 6% 15% 17% 15% 40%
6%
10% 17% 16% 10% 8% 30%
4%
20%
2% 5% 16% 5%
10%
0% 0% 16% 0% 0%
Consumption Rental Consumption Rental Consumption Rental Consumption Rental Consumption Rental

Source: Industry, Spark Capital

Page 55
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
# More than 50% of area is up for renewal over next 3 years for most of the malls; Rental renewals expected to be higher given increasing ATD
trends across malls
More than 50% of area is up for renewal over next 3 years for most of the malls; Rental renewals expected
Lease rental schedule for HSP & Palladium
to be higher given increasing ATD trends across malls
Cumulative lease renewals expected between FY20-22E HSP & Palladium Lease Rental Schedule
75%
69% 21%
70%
65% 63% 16%
60% 12%
55% 53%
49% 50%
50%
45%
40%
HSP & Palladium PMC Pune PMC Chennai PMC Mumbai PMC Bangalore FY20E FY21E FY22E

Source: Industry, Spark Capital

Lease rental schedules for Phoenix MarketCity malls

PMC Bangalore Lease Rental PMC Mumbai Lease Rental PMC Pune Lease Rental Schedule PMC Chennai Lease Rental
Schedule Schedule Schedule
38%
20% 31%
34% 19%

26%
24% 20%
11%

5% 5%
2%

FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E

Source: Industry, Spark Capital

Page 56
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
# Traditionally malls earned revenue through rents alone while in current scenario, malls base their rent with revenue share clause in agreement;
Revenue sharing provides higher optionality to mall operators and offer higher return with same risk profile
Most of Grade A malls operate on minimum guarantee and revenue share-whichever is higher

Previously Now
Sale Model Lease/License Model Lease/License Model
▪ Revenue from rents ▪ Base rent or percentage of sales, whichever is higher
▪ Lesser Risks ▪ Business partnerships between retailer & developer
▪ Shops sold to retailers/investors
▪ Medium term investment (low- ▪ Incentive to build a better product
▪ Short-term investment
risk/medium returns) ▪ Result oriented events and promotions
▪ Lack of discipline, maintenance &
▪ Some control over mix & therefore ▪ Better equipped to face competition
control over trade and tenant mix
the shopper ▪ Same risk profile but greatest returns
, high vacancy rates
▪ Some Ability/Flexibility & Incentive ▪ Occupier Outflow: Monthly minimum guarantee or a fixed % of
to improve sales, whichever is higher
Source: Spark Capital

Typically a mall operating on revenue sharing witness non-linear increase in profitability and return metrics when average trading density crosses Rs.1,500 psfpm

MG Rental (Rs. psfpm) Majority of retail lease agreements at PML pay higher of minimum
Renewal at
significantly guarantee (MG) rents and revenue share (% of consumption)
Rev Share Rental(Rs.psfpm)
higher rates
Trading Density (Rs psfpm))

Trading Density
Generally MG escalates by mid-double digits at the end of 3 years
Mid-teens from
and mid-to-high single digits annually in the interim
3rd year
Single digit
Rent

annual rent
escalation

Typically a lease is renewed at the end of 5th year and the


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 renegotiated MG/revenue share is significantly higher

Year

Source: Spark Capital

Page 57
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

Potential for improvement in ATD (average trading density) in PMCs Pune & Mumbai, and the United Lucknow & Bareilly
Malls with ATD between Rs. 1,000 and 1,500 have good scope to improve ATDs and
Relationship between ATD and rental as a % of consumption
rents
20% 18-20% FY19 Rental as a % of
16-18% Mall Name FY19 ATD (Rs.psfpm)
Rental as a % of consumption

18% consumption
16% 13-15%
14% 11-12%
12% HSP & Palladium 2,943 18%
10% 8-10%
8%
6%
4%
2% PMC Bangalore 1,680 11%
0%
800-1,200 1,200-1,500 1,500-2,000 2,000-2,500 Greater than
2,500
Average Trading Density (Rs. psfpm)
PMC Chennai 1,505 14%
Source: Company, Spark Capital Potential for
improvement
in ATD
PMC Pune 1,334 13%
Potential for improvement in ATD in PMCs Pune & Mumbai, and the United malls
✓ Given rentals paid by tenants in a mall is higher of minimum guarantee and revenue
share, mall operators focus on increasing overall consumption and average trading
density (ATD). PMC Mumbai 1,161 13%
✓ As shown in above chart, rental as percentage of consumption is highest when ATDs are
higher than Rs.2,000 and lowest below Rs.1,000.
✓ Once the mall operator scales up ATD to Rs.1,200, retailer starts making a reasonable
profit and is able to absorb the occupancy cost United Lucknow 1,113 9%
✓ In current PML portfolio, there is a significant scope to increase ATD in Pune, Mumbai and
united malls
✓ With increasing ATD, mall level return metrics also improve non-linearly owing to
United Bareilly 827 11%
significant rental re-pricing power for mall operator.

Source: Industry, Spark Capital

Page 58
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
PMC Bangalore saw a non-linear improvement in pre-tax ROIC from 9% to 21% when the ATDs doubled from Rs.745; HSP at ATD of around Rs.3,000
has pre-tax ROIC of almost 28%
Non-linear increase in return metrics with increase in ATD

HSP & Palladium


PMC Bangalore FY13 FY15 FY18 FY13 FY19
(inc. commercial)

Trading Density (Rs.psfpm) 745 1,131 1,694 Trading Density (Rs.psfpm) 2,020 2,943

Rental Income (Rs.mn) 603 876 1,275 Rental Income (Rs.mn) 1,824 3,432

EBITDA (Rs.mn) 532 906 1,352 EBITDA (Rs.mn) 1,837 2,768

EBIT (Rs.mn) 429 746 1,180 EBIT (Rs.mn) 1,562 2,326

Invested Capital (Rs.mn) 5,063 5,191 5,430 Invested Capital (Rs.mn) 6,600 8,208

Pre-Tax RoIC % 8.5% 14.2% 20.7% Pre-Tax RoIC % 23.7% 27.7%

Pre-Tax CROCI % 10.5% 17.5% 24.9% Pre-Tax CROCI % 27.8% 33.7%

Source: Company, Spark Capital Note: Pre-Tax CROIC is calculated using EBITDA as proxy for cash flows, and invested capital

Page 59
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

PML Growth Plans- Addition of one mall each year till FY24E, Addition of malls in exiting cities and entry in newer Tier-2 cities to drive growth
Growth drivers for PML are increase in trading density in existing malls and addition of new malls; PML has plans to add additional malls in cities such as Bangalore and Pune
where both population and per capita income is high versus other cities

Growth Drivers New malls in existing Tier-1 markets Entry into new Tier-1 markets New malls in Tier-2 markets

Tier-1 Cities Overall Rank* Remarks

Delhi-NCR 1 ▪ No exposure to this market. Can explore opportunities in Gurugram, New Delhi. Has the highest retail stock in India.

▪ PML has 2 malls - PMC Kurla & HSP/Palladium. One of the highest per capita income. PML can explore opportunities in Thane & Vashi
Mumbai 2
(Navi Mumbai).

▪ PML has 1 mall (PMC Whitefield) and is in the process of setting up of another mall (PMC Hebbal). Do not expect more PML malls in the
Bangalore 3
near term.

▪ PML has 2 malls - PMC Chennai & Palladium. Has the lowest vacancy rate among Tier-1 cities. PML can explore opportunities in west
Chennai 4
Chennai.

Hyderabad 5 ▪ No exposure to this market. Strong growth potential owing to increasing white collar tech jobs and lack of quality retail supply.

▪ PML has 1 mall (PMC Viman Nagar) and is in the process of setting up of another mall (PMC Wakad). Do not expect more PML malls in
Pune 6
the near term.

Kolkata 7 ▪ No exposure to this market.

*Ranks were arrived at on the basis of following factors:


Population growth potential, current retail stock, upcoming retail supply, vacancy rates, and retail investments in each of these cities.
Source: JLL
Source: Company, Spark Capital

Page 60
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

Upcoming Phoenix malls in Tier-1 cities


PMC Hebbal is upcoming in the North Bangalore micromarket and around 19km from the existing PMC Bangalore mall; PMC Wakad is upcoming around 21km from the
existing PMC Pune

Total Capex
PMC Wakad : Mall Location Dynamics
Rs.13.0bn ✓ Land size : 15 acres; Acquired for Rs. 2.4bn
✓ Current mall in Viman Nagar (around 22km from proposed Wakad mall) serves the
CBD of Kharadi and surrounding residential areas of Kalyani Nagar, Boat Club,
Koregaon Park and neighboring towns such as Ahmednagar, and has a dense mid-
high income range catchment
✓ Commercial areas such as Hinjewadi, Baner and Aundh; Residential areas such as
Wakad, Baner, Aundh, Balewadi extending up to Kothrud in South West of Pune
✓ Strong Commercial catchment of 25 mn sft in Hinjewadi (19 msf and expanding) and
Aundh / Baner (6 msf and expanding)

PMC Hebbal Total Capex


Rs.8.5bn

PMC Whitefield
PMC Wakad

PMC Hebbal : Mall Location Dynamics


✓ Land size: 13 acres; Acquired for Rs.7.0bn
✓ Current PML mall (PMC Whitefield) serves the eastern parts of Bengaluru city
✓ PMC Hebbal is almost 19 km away from PMC Whitefield with strategic and easy access to
key commercial & residential areas in the burgeoning North Bangalore micromarket
✓ Strong operational commercial catchment of ~11-12 msf in the vicinity PMC Pune
✓ Dense residential population (with large projects like Raintree Boulevard) in the range of
Rs. 10,000 per sq.ft
Source: Industry, Spark Capital

Page 61
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

PML plans to expand its presence into Tier-2 cities over the next five years; 30% of leased area will be in Tier-2 cities by FY25E
Phoenix retail exposure shifting in favor of Tier 2 cities. By FY25E, ~30% of total leasable area will be in Tier 2 cities with PHNX adding another mall in Lucknow, and entering
the Ahmedabad & Indore markets.
Phoenix Retail Area Split - Current Phoenix Retail Area Split (msf) - FY25E
Phoenix plans to move into Tier 2 cities like Ahmedabad (Palladium)
& Indore (Phoenix MarketCity), and to add a 2nd mall (Phoenix
Tier 2
11%
MarketCity) in Lucknow, thus taking overall Tier 2 area from 0.6msf
Tier 2
30% currently to 3.2msf by FY25.

Phoenix will also be adding a mall each in Bangalore (MarketCity,


Hebbal) & Pune (MarketCity, Wakad), both cities where they already
Tier 1 have presence, but do not have any immediate plans to expand into
Tier 1 70% any new Tier 1 cities.
89%

Total Area
Incremental growth is expected from increasing Tier 2 exposure.
Total Area
5.9msf 10.8msf

Source: Company, Spark Capital

PML upcoming malls in Tier-2 cities Total rental currently from Tier 2 vs potential rental by FY25

Mall Name City Area (msf) Status Rental Income from Tier-2 cities (Rs.mn)

Phoenix United Lucknow 0.3 Operational 4,000


3,398
3,500
Phoenix United Bareilly 0.3 Operational 3,000
2,500
Phoenix MarketCity Lucknow 0.9 Upcoming – FY20E 2,000 6.7x
1,500
Phoenix MarketCity Indore 1.0 Upcoming – FY22E
1,000
507
500
Palladium Ahmedabad 0.7 Upcoming – FY23E
-
FY19 FY25E
Total 4.9

Source: Company, Spark Capital

Page 62
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

PML’s upcoming malls in Tier-2 cities- Indore and Ahmedabad are the new markets where PML has already planned malls

PML adds one additional mall in Lucknow and enters in Indore and Ahmedabad by FY24E; Currently PML has presence in Lucknow and Bareilly

Growth Drivers New malls in existing Tier-1 markets Entry into new Tier-1 markets New malls in Tier-2 markets

Phoenix MarketCity, Lucknow Phoenix MarketCity, Indore Phoenix Palladium, Ahmedabad

Area (msf) 0.9 Area (msf) 1.0 Area (msf) 0.7

Capex (Rs.bn) 7.5 Capex (Rs.bn) 7.5 Capex (Rs.bn) 8.0

Commencement FY20E Commencement FY21E Commencement FY22E

Number of malls over 0.4msf Number of malls over 0.4msf


Number of malls over 0.4msf area 2 0 6
area area
Biggest mall in Indore once First PHNX mall in
Remarks Second PHNX mall in Lucknow Remarks Remarks
operational Ahmedabad; Luxury category

▪ Phoenix has a smaller mall in Lucknow (United ▪ With the 50:50 JV with BSafal group, PHNX will enter
▪ Indore is the commercial hub in Madhya Pradesh.
~0.3msf) and will add a big mall 3x the size of united the Ahmedabad market with its premium store brand
mall. ▪ Low mall penetration in the city. City does not have – “Palladium”.
any large format retail stores.
▪ Project located near the International Cricket Stadium ▪ This will be the third malls in Palladium series after
and touted to be a strong growth corridor. ▪ PMC Indore will be the largest mall in the city post launch in Mumbai and Chennai.
commencement.
▪ IT City is about 5KM from the mall. ▪ Located on SG Highway road which is commercial and
▪ Located on Mumbai-Agra national highway. Most of upcoming growth hub in the city.
▪ Recently LULU has started mall with same leasable
the civil construction is already completed.
area. ▪ This will be the first high end mall in the city.

Source: Company, Spark Capital

Page 63
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Our assumptions for retail segment: We expect overall rentals to grow at a 15% CAGR over next five years led by an 8-10% rental growth in
existing assets, and ramp up from new malls
Mall leasable area to increase from 5.9msf to almost 11.7msf post current leg of
Expect mall rentals to double from current levels by FY25E
expansion.
Mall Status FY19 FY22E FY25E 13.0
11.4 11.7
HSP & Palladium (increase in 12.0
Operational 3,432 4,179 7,893 11.0
area in FY25E)
10.0 HSP
PMC Bangalore Operational 1,392 1,715 2,708 9.0 8.6
7.9 PMC Wakad
8.0
PMC Pune Operational 1,589 2,122 2,700 6.9 6.9 PMC Hebbal
7.0 Palladium
5.9 Ahmedabad
6.0
PMC Chennai Operational 1,529 1,860 2,215 PMC
5.0 PMC Indore
Lucknow
PMC Mumbai Operational 1,216 1,522 1,903 4.0
FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY25E
Palladium, Chennai Operational 248 329 378 Total Leasable Area (msf)
Source: Spark Capital
United Lucknow Operational 292 350 418

United Bareilly Operational 215 258 308 Total lease rentals (and PML stake lease rent) to grow at a ~15% CAGR between
FY19-25E
PMC Indore Upcoming - 742 1,216
25.0 23.7

PMC Lucknow Upcoming - 536 868 19.0


20.0
PMC Hebbal Upcoming - - 1,445 15.2
15.0 12.4
11.9
PMC Wakad Upcoming - - 1,078 9.9 10.1
10.0 8.3

Palladium, Ahmedabad Upcoming - - 587


5.0
Total Operational 9,913 12,334 18,523
-
FY19 FY21E FY23E FY25E
Total Upcoming - 1,277 5,194
PML stake lease rental (Rs.bn) Total lease rental (Rs.bn)
Total 9,913 13,611 23,718
Source: Spark Capital

Page 64
OTHER SEGMENTS

Page 65
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

Office Portfolio: PML currently has five operational offices in Mumbai and Pune with total leased area of 1.4msf and rentals of ~Rs.1.4bn

Details of PML’s operational Office properties

Office name Art Guild House Centrium Phoenix House Phoenix Paragon Plaza Fountainhead Tower 1

Location Mumbai Mumbai Mumbai Mumbai Pune

Graceworks Realty &


SPV name Offbeat Developers Offbeat Developers Standalone Alliance Spaces
Leisure

PML Stake 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Start year FY12 FY12 Since 2010 FY15 FY19

Total leasable area in msf 0.80 (Sold 0.60 msf) 0.28 (Sold 0.16 msf) 0.20 0.42 (Sold 0.12 msf) 0.17

FY19 Occupancy % 90% 85% 65% 55% 90%

Lease rent Rs. Psf per month


96 91 110 95 80
(FY19)

Total rentals (Rs.mn) 582 96 147 358 135

PML Office
Portfolio

Art Guild House Centrium Phoenix House Paragon Plaza Fountainhead T1


Kurla Kurla Lower Parel Kurla Pune

Source: Spark Capital

Page 66
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

Gross leasable area (excluding sold out area) in the commercial segment will touch 5.5msf by FY25E – 4x of current GLA

PML has plans to add office space in each of its upcoming malls

Office Name Status Malls where office space is present/planned

Art Guild House Operational PMC Kurla, Mumbai

Centrium Operational PMC Kurla, Mumbai

Phoenix Paragon plaza Operational PMC Kurla, Mumbai

Phoenix House Operational HSP, Lower Parel, Mumbai

Fountainhead (Tower 1, 2 and 3) Operational and Under construction PMC Pune

The Crest – Commercial Under construction PMC Chennai

Mumbai Under planning HSP, Lower Parel, Mumbai

Pune Under planning PMC, Wakad, Pune

Bangalore Under planning PMC, Whitefield, Bangalore


Bangalore Under planning PMC, Hebbal, Bangalore

Gross leasable area (excluding sold out area) in the commercial segment will touch 5.5msf by FY25E – 4x of current GLA

6.0
Commercial space addition schedule (msf) HSP
PMC Wakad
5.0 PMC Hebbal
PMC Whitefield 5.5
4.0 The Crest

3.0 1.6
Fountainhead T2-T3
2.0 0.4
0.6
1.0
1.4
0.0
FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY25E
Source: Spark Capital

Page 67
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
All of the PML’s offices are nearby or within existing malls as Offices act as an enabler in attracting footfalls to malls; Expect rentals from offices to
increase to Rs.2bn by FY22E led by increasing occupancy at existing properties and start of new towers in Fountainhead, Pune and PMC, Chennai
PML has plans to treble its office space over next five years increasing total
Rentals expected to grow ~5x by FY25E from Rs.1.2bn in FY19
leasable area to ~6msf

Total 7,000
Total Capex Tentative
Office name Status leasable 6,000
(Rs.bn) start year
area (msf)
5,000
4,000 ~25-30% CAGR
Fountainhead Towers 2 & Under 3,000
0.6 2.1 FY21E
3 (Pune) construction 2,000
1,000
1,215 1,384 1,806 2,046 2,531 3,809 5,919
Under -
PMC (Chennai) 0.4 1.6 FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY25E
construction
Office Rental (Rs.mn) (inc. HSP office)

HSP (Lower Parel, Under Source: Spark Capital Note: We have assumed HSP & Wakad to be operational by FY25E; yet to be guided by
1.1 4.4 FY24E company
Mumbai) planning

PMC (Wakad, Pune)


Under
0.5 2.0 FY24E ✓ PML currently has 1.4 msf of leased area (excluding sold out area) and has rental
planning income of Rs.1.2bn as of in FY19.

✓ Offices act as an enabler in attracting footfalls to malls, as seen in PMC Kurla.


PMC (Whitefield, Under
1.0 2.0 FY24E
Bangalore) planning ✓ Hence, PML plans to add office space either inside/nearby malls for all of its
operational and upcoming malls.

Under ✓ As a result, commercial segment gross leasable area by FY25E will be 5.5msf- 4x of
PMC (Hebbal, Bangalore) 0.6 2.2 FY24E
planning current GLA and rental income will increase to Rs.6bn.

✓ Office portfolio rentals will contribute 12-13% to overall PML revenue in FY25E.
Total 4.2 14.3

Source: Spark Capital

Page 68
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

PML’s Residential Portfolio: Projects in Bangalore and Chennai and mainly in Ultra-Luxury and Luxury segments
PML’s residential project details: PML has launched three projects in Bangalore and PML’s residential project details: PML has two residential projects in Bangalore and
Chennai so far one in Chennai

One Bangalore
Project name Kessaku The Crest Total
West

Bangalore Bangalore Chennai


One Bangalore West
Location Rajajinagar, Bangalore
(Rajaji Nagar) (Rajaji Nagar) (Velachery)

Palladium Palladium Classic Mall


SPV name
constructions constructions Development

PML Stake 100% 100% 50%

Crest ventures
Other stakeholders NA NA
Ltd

Launch year Nov, 2012 Feb, 2015 Jan, 2012 Kessaku


Rajajinagar, Bangalore
Total Area (msf) 2.20 0.99 0.53 3.72

Total area launched so far


1.48 0.52 0.53 2.53
(msf)

Balance area to be
0.72 0.47 NA 1.19
launched (msf)
The Crest
Luxury Ultra- luxury Luxury Velachery, Chennai
Segment
(2-4 BHK) (4-6 BHK) (3-5 BHK)

Average pricing psf 16,000-18,000 19,000-21,000 13,000-14,000

Source: Company, Spark Capital

Page 69
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Supply-demand dynamics of NW Bangalore micromarket; While the region has seen decline in inventory in FY19, OBW/Kessaku sales rate has
remained subdued because of the ultra-luxury nature of the project.
Steady demand market with a decline in inventory seen in FY19; Demand recovered in FY19 after subdued performance between FY16-18

10.0 16.0
9.0 14.0
8.0 13.3
12.7 12.8 12.3
11.9 12.0
7.0
10.5 10.0
6.0 9.3
5.0 8.0
4.0 6.2 6.0
3.0
4.0
2.0 2.9 3.3
1.0 2.0
2.4 2.4 3.2 2.8 7.1 4.2 7.7 4.5 9.2 5.9 5.6 5.5 5.0 4.5 2.1 3.5 1.1 2.5 6.9 5.1
- -
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
New Launches (000's units) Absorption (000's units) Inventory (000's units)

Source: Industry, Spark Capital

Increase in demand in FY19 has led to a sharp fall in inventory years to a OBW & Kessaku are present within the Rajajinagar area, an affluent neighborhood
comfortable 2.3 years at the end of FY19 in NW Bangalore.
Inventory Years Micromarket Current average price (Rs.psf)
5.0
4.5
4.5
Dollars Colony 10,477
4.0
3.6
3.5
2.9 Malleshwaram 12,104
3.0
2.5 2.3 2.3
Rajajinagar 12,532
1.9
2.0 1.7
1.5 1.2 1.1 1.1 Phoenix OBW & Kessaku FY19 average 14,442
1.0
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Bangalore average 5,500-7,000

Source: Industry, Spark Capital

Page 70
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
PML residential segment: PML has already sold 80% of its residential portfolio and has about 1.7msf of unsold inventory (including area not
opened for sale)
PML has already launched towers 1-6 (0.7msf) in OBW; Tower 7 was launched in FY20 whereas towers 8-9 are expected to be launched post FY22E. Kessaku & The Crest are
100% completed projects.
Inventory in area Total inventory
Area opened for Area not opened Cumulative Area Booking value Collections Collections as % Receivables
opened for including area not
As of FY19 booking (msf) (msf) sold (msf) (Rs.mn) (Rs.mn) of booking value (Rs.mn)
booking (msf) opened (msf)

One Bangalore West 1.5 0.7 1.3 0.2 0.9 13,070 12,190 93% 880

Kessaku 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.7 4,388 2,692 61% 1,696

The Crest 0.5 - 0.4 0.1 0.1 3,826 3,826 100% -

Total 2.5 1.2 2.0 0.5 1.7 21,284 18,708 88% 2,576

Source: Spark Capital

Page 71
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Our assumption for PML residential segment- While we factor in slower sales rate due to luxury nature of projects, cash outflow in this segment
will be minimal
As sales rate has been quite subdued for PML projects due to luxury nature of projects, we expect projects (including area not opened for booking) to get sold out by FY26E.
Nonetheless, we expect potential pre-tax net cash operating cash flow of Rs.25bn accruing over next 10 years as PML has incurred the majority of construction costs

Total Inventory in
msf (launched area Potential collections Cost to incur to Pre-tax net operating Our assumptions for the Residential
In Rs.mn Receivables Total collections segment:
and area to be from inventory complete full project cash flows
opened for booking)
▪ Given luxury nature of projects, we
expect the sales rate to be slower.
▪ PML took more than 7 years to sell
One Bangalore 80% of launched inventory in One
0.9 15,892 880 16,772 5,158 11,614
West Bangalore West.
▪ Majority of the construction cost is
already incurred for all the projects.
▪ PML has sold 2.0msf with booking
value of Rs.21bn so far. We factor
sales of 1.7msf (unsold inventory
Kessaku 0.7 11,535 1,696 13,231 718 12,512 and area not opened for booking) to
be sold by FY28E.
▪ Assuming price appreciation, we
expect PML to post booking value of
Rs.28-30bn from this 1.7msf
inventory.
▪ OBW: Expect the unsold inventory
The Crest 0.1 752 - 752 - 752 to be completely sold by FY26E
▪ Kessaku: No significant cash
outflow as project is fully complete;
Inventory expected to be sold out
by FY26E
▪ The Crest: No significant cash
outflow as project is fully complete;
Total 1.7 28,178 2,576 30,754 5,876 24,878 Inventory expected to be sold out
by FY23E

Source: Spark Capital

Page 72
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

Hotel Portfolio: PML currently has two marquee five star hotel properties in Mumbai and Agra

Details of PML’s hotel properties Occupancy at St.Regis expected to touch ~90% by FY22E

St.Regis Occupancy %
Hotel name St. Regis Courtyard Marriot
90% 89%
88% 86%
Location Mumbai (Lower Parel) Agra 86%
84% 83%
82% 80%
Pallazzio Hotels &
SPV name Palladium Constructions 80%
Leisure 78% 76%
76%
PML Stake 73% 100% 74% 72%
72%
70%
ABIPL (Avinash Bhosale FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
Other stakeholders NA
Infrastructure pvt ltd)
Source: Spark Capital
Launch year Nov, 2012 Feb, 2015 While occupancy levels at the Courtyard (Agra) will hover around the 74-76% range
for the next 3 years

Total capex in Rs.mn 8,347 2,500 Courtyard Occupancy %


80%
76%
Total Keys 395 193 75% 73%
70%
70% 67%
FY19 Occupancy 80% 67% 65%
65%

60% 57%
Average room rental in Rs. 14,000-18,000 5,000-7,000
55%

50%
FY19 Revenue including F&B 3,043 370 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

Source: Spark Capital

Page 73
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

St. Regis- One of the marquee properties in South Mumbai, this hotel has one of the highest ARRs (average room rental) in all of South Mumbai
St.Regis IRRs have grown at an 8% CAGR over the last 3 years. Given high IRRs
Top hotels in South Mumbai with average rent
currently, we factor in ARR growth of 3% between FY19-22E
4,000 13,500
12,963 13,000
3,500 12,555 12,500
12,159 12,000
3,000 11,776
11,405 11,500

2,500
11,000 Sofitel BKC
10,443 10,500 Rs.10,000-10,500

2,000 10,000
9,500 JW Marriott, Juhu
2,520 2,790 3,043 3,281 3,529 3,794 Rs.14,000-14,300
1,500 9,000 ITC Grand Central
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E Rs. 16,500-17,000

Revenue (Rs.mn) ARR (Rs.)


Taj Land Ends
Rs.19,800-20,000
Source: Company, Spark Capital

While margins are expected to remain flat at around ~40% till FY22E

1,800 41%
41% 41% 41% 41% St.Regis Mumbai
1,600 40%
1,400 Rs.14,750-15,000
39%
1,200 Four Season Hotel
38% 38%
1,000 Rs.14,000-14,300
37% The Oberoi,
800
36% 36% Nariman Point
600
400 35% Rs.16,000-16,300
200 34%
907 1,055 1,234 1,331 1,431 1,538 Taj Mahal Palace
- 33%
Rs.24,000-24,500
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

EBITDA (Rs.mn) EBITDA Margins %

Source: Company, Spark Capital, Booking.com

Page 74
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Courtyard Marriot – Subdued ARR and return ratios in this property given competition from other 5-star properties. PML has capital employed of
~Rs.2.0bn in this property which generates EBITDA of ~Rs.0.4bn
Subdued ARR growth in this property due to high quality supply in the vicinity Top hotels in Agra with average rent

500 4,400
4,336
4,300
450
4,214 4,200
400 4,109 4,100
4,007 4,000 Radisson Hotel, Agra
350 Rs. 6,600-6,700
3,908 3,900
300 3,811 3,800
3,700 The Oberoi
250 Amarvillas
323 360 370 394 424 455 3,600
Rs. 40,000+
200 3,500
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

Revenue (Rs.mn) ARR (Rs.)

Source: Company, Spark Capital Tajview Agra


Rs. 5,000-5,100
EBITDA margins to remain flattish as a result
Courtyard by Marriott
170 40% Trident Agra Rs. 5,500-6,000
Rs. 10,000-10,200
160 39%
150 38%
140 37%
130 35% 35% 35% 35% 36% ITC Mughal
Rs. 7,600-7,700
120 35%
110 34%
129 138 148 159
100 33%
FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

EBITDA (Rs.mn) EBITDA Margins %

Source: Company, Spark Capital, Booking.com

Page 75
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

Consolidated Financials: Expect revenue and PAT CAGR of 11% and 14% respectively over FY21-22E
We expect revenue growth of ~11-12% for the next 2-3 years largely led by start of
Expect EBITDA margin to remain around 50%
PMCs Lucknow & Indore, Fountainhead T2-T3, and revenue ramp-up at Palladium
28.0 25% 15.0 52%
22% 14.0 51%
26.0 20% 51%
24.0 13.0 51%
15% 50% 50%
22.0 12% 12.0 50%
10% 9% 10% 11.0 50% 50%
20.0
5% 10.0 49%
18.0
0% 9.0 49%
16.0 8.0 48% 48%
14.0 -5%
-11% 7.0 48%
12.0 -10% 6.0 47%
16.2 19.8 21.9 23.9 26.7 7.8 9.9 10.9 12.0 13.6
10.0 -15% 5.0 47%
FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

Revenue (Rs.bn) Growth % EBITDA (Rs.bn) EBITDA Margins %


Source: Company, Spark Capital

PAT margins to decline to sub-20% levels due to higher depreciation and interest
We do not expect dividend to increase materially given ongoing capex
costs owing to new assets

6.0 25% 4.5 25.0%

5.0 21% 20.9%


19% 20% 4.0 20.0%
18% 19%
4.0 15%
15% 3.5 15.0%
3.0 13.2%
13.1%
10% 3.0 10.4% 11.6% 10.0%
2.0

1.0 5% 2.5 5.0%


2.4 4.2 4.0 4.6 5.2 2.4 2.6 3.0 3.0 4.0
- 0% 2.0 0.0%
FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

PAT (Rs.bn) PAT Margins % DPS (Rs.) Payout Ratio %

Source: Company, Spark Capital

Page 76
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Balance Sheet: Despite Rs.35bn of impending capex over the next four years, net debt will increase by ~Rs.6bn and peak out in FY22E; Expect de-
leveraging to start FY23E onwards
Considering ongoing capex, expect next debt to peak out in FY23E and de-leveraging to
Current segment-wise debt position; Retail debt contributes ~80% to overall debt
follow
Status Asset Class Amount (Rs.mn) % Net Debt (Rs.bn)
Retail 32,484 78% 47.0
Hospitality 5,398 13% 45.0
Operational
Commercial 2,574 6% 43.0

Residential 1,371 3% 41.0

Sub-Total (A) 41,827 39.0

Retail 4,094 85% 37.0


Under-Development 38.5 38.0 42.3 43.5 44.6 41.9 38.2
Commercial 708 15% 35.0
FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E FY24E
Sub-Total (B) 4,802
Source: Company, Spark Capital

Leverage ratios to remain at higher level over the next two years Return metrics to remain in the ~10-11% range due to ongoing capex

6.0 17%
15%
5.0 5.0 15%
13% 13%
4.0 3.8 4.0 13%
3.6 11%
3.2 10% 10% 11%
3.0 11% 10% 10%
2.6 9% 9%
9% 9%
2.0 9%
1.8 7%
1.4
1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 7%
0.8 0.6
- 5%
FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E FY24E

Net Debt to Equity (x) Net Debt to EBITDA (x) RoE % RoCE %

Source: Company, Spark Capital

Page 77
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Cash flows from operations excluding interest expense, will treble by FY24E. PML can add 1-2msf of retail/commercial space each via internal
accruals
While OCF is expected to increase to Rs.12bn by FY22E, FCF to remain negative due
WC days to reduce given liquidation of residential portfolio
to ongoing capex

20.0 15.1 200


11.7 11.8 166 164
15.0 149
8.1
10.0 150 128
5.0 2.1 110
- 100 82 90
-0.3 -0.3 66
-5.0 56
-2.8 40
-10.0 50
-8.1
-15.0
-20.0 -15.2 -
FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E

OCF (Rs.bn) FCF (Rs.bn) Inventory Days Working Capital Days

Source: Spark Capital

OCF post interest expected to treble from current levels, by FY24E

14.0
12.0 Internal Accruals to aid in growth from FY23-24E
10.0
8.0
✓ Given significant increase in GLA in both retail and offices, we expect PML’s cash
flow from operation post interest expense to increase to ~Rs.12bn by FY24E from
6.0
~Rs.4bn in FY20E.
4.0
2.0 ✓ Currently 1msf mall space including land cost around Rs.6-7bn in Tier-1 cities, we
4.5 7.8 7.8 11.3 12.5 believe PML can add a mall with GLA of 1-2msf each year via internal accruals.
-
FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E FY24E

Post interest OCF (Rs.bn)

Source: Industry, Spark Capital

Page 78
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
PML currently trades at implied cap rate of 10% (for rental assets); We value rental assets at 9% considering growth over next few years and arriv
at a target price of Rs.880/share
SoTP Valuation – Growth in rentals in existing annuity assets contributes 80% to
Valuations methodology for segments
overall valuations

% contribution Segment Assumptions


Segment Status Rs.mn Per share
to target price We forecast post tax EBITDA for all the individual malls till FY25E and
Retail use cap rate of 9% for cash flows thereafter. Discount cash flows at
WACC of 12%.
Existing 1,02,457 641 73% We forecast post tax EBITDA for all the individual malls till FY25E and
Retail Commercial use cap rate of 9% for cash flows thereafter. Discount cash flows at
WACC of 12%.
Upcoming 23,106 145 16%
Hotel We attribute EV/EBITDA multiple of 15x to FY22E EBITDA

Existing 8,305 52 6%
Discounted after tax cash flows from all three residential projects at
Residential
Commercial WACC of 12%
Upcoming 12,869 81 9%
PML trades at 10% cap rate at current enterprise value
Hotel NA 17,450 109 12%
Implied cap rate calculation Rs.bn

Current market cap 121


Residential NA 10,876 68 8%
FY22E net debt (PML stake and excluding CWIP) 21
Total Enterprise Value (excluding CWIP) 142
GNAV 174,828 1,096 125%
Hotel and Residential enterprise value 34

Net debt (PML Debt pertaining to land for upcoming retail and commercial asset in PPE 15
34,596 217 -25%
share) Enterprise value for retail and commercial assets as of FY22E 93
FY22E post-tax annuity income 9
Net NAV 140,231 880 100%
Implied cap rate for existing rental asset % 9.8%

Source: Spark Capital Source: Spark Capital

Page 79
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

Valuations: Stock is trading around its +1 standard deviation to its 7 year average valuations

One year forward price to book trend One year forward P/B(x) and RoE chart

4.0 4.0 Average RoE % - 9% 14%


Average P/B - 2.4x
3.5 3.5 12%
2.8 2.8
3.0 3.0 10%
2.8 2.5 8%
2.5
2.4 2.0 6%
2.0
1.9 1.5 4%
1.5 1.0 2%
1.0 0.5 0%
Dec-12

Jun-13

Dec-13

Jun-14

Dec-14

Jun-15

Dec-15

Jun-16

Dec-16

Jun-17

Dec-17

Jun-18

Dec-18

Jun-19

Dec-19
Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19
Mar-13

Mar-14

Mar-15

Mar-16

Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-19

Dec-12

Jun-13

Dec-13

Jun-14

Dec-14

Jun-15

Dec-15

Jun-16

Dec-16

Jun-17

Dec-17

Jun-18

Dec-18

Jun-19

Dec-19
Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19
Mar-13

Mar-14

Mar-15

Mar-16

Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-19
12MF P/B(x) Average +1SD -1SD RoE % 12MF P/B(x)

Source: Spark Capital Source: Spark Capital

One year forward EV/EBITDA trend

15.0
14.0 14.2
13.0 We initiate coverage with a BUY rating with a TP of Rs. 880/share based on SoTP.
12.5 Existing operational assets (malls/offices/hotels/residential) form 75% of our total
12.0
11.0 GNAV, and therefore provides comfort to our valuations. Further implied cap rate
10.0 10.4 for its rental business works out to ~10% at CMP, which is attractive compared to
9.0 listed global REITS which trade in the range of 3-4%. Given its high-quality assets,
8.0 8.4 strong cash generation potential, and growth visibility, we expect cap rates to
7.0 compress post commencement of new assets. We are building in cap rate of 9%
6.0 for its rental portfolio.
Dec-12

Jun-13

Dec-13

Jun-14

Dec-14

Jun-15

Dec-15

Jun-16

Dec-16

Jun-17

Dec-17

Jun-18

Dec-18

Jun-19

Dec-19
Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19
Mar-13

Mar-14

Mar-15

Mar-16

Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-19

12MF EV/EBITDA(x) Average +1SD -1SD

Source: Spark Capital

Page 80
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

International Peer Comparison- Most of the international peers trade at 3-4% implied cap rate

Current debt break up by division

Rental Income
Revenue Growth % EBITDA Growth % P/B (x) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Market Cap (in million) Implied Cap GLA
Company/REIT Currency
(in million) Rate % (msf)
Last 3Y Last 3Y
Last 3Y Next 2Y Last 3Y Next 2Y 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020
Average CAGR %

AREIT SGD 10,507 6% 4% 9% 4% 705 9% 1.3 1.3 19.1 18.0 22.1 21.4 3.5% 3

Capitaland SGD 18,506 3% 12% 16% 22% 4,319 3% 0.8 0.8 13.6 15.3 17.9 12.9 4.2% 16

Link REIT HKD 165,854 5% 8% -25% 8% 8,543 9% 1.0 0.9 32.9 30.0 28.1 25.9 4.2% 13

Federal Investment
USD 9,701 6% 9% 6% 6% 813 7% 3.6 3.3 36.1 34.6 20.8 20.6 4.7% 24
Trust

Klepierre EUR 9,945 -2% 3% -16% 3% 1,228 1% 0.9 1.0 10.8 10.8 18.3 18.2 5.6% 6

Regency Center
USD 10,362 22% 4% 27% 2% 796 26% 1.7 1.7 43.2 39.7 20.0 17.6 5.6% 54
Corporation

Simon Property
USD 44,674 1% 1% 2% 3% 5,022 3% 21.1 30.1 21.9 21.0 17.9 NA 6.1% 191
Group

Intu Property GBP 456 0% -5% -1% -6% 491 -11% 0.2 0.3 7.0 6.6 14.9 15.2 7.2%

Source: Spark Capital

Page 81
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

Financial Summary (Consolidated)


Abridged Financial Statements
Rs. mn FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
Profit & Loss
Revenue 14,485 16,533 17,795 18,246 16,199 19,816 21,876 23,944 26,747
EBITDA 6,784 7,620 7,869 8,469 7,777 9,931 10,852 12,030 13,609
Depreciation 1,055 1,681 1,773 1,953 1,983 2,042 2,146 2,373 2,756
EBIT 6,120 6,251 6,399 6,988 6,350 8,740 9,496 10,487 11,724
Other Income 391 312 302 472 556 851 790 830 871
Interest expense 3,451 3,956 4,425 4,230 3,476 3,506 3,630 3,842 3,966
Exceptional items -84 938 387 - - -481 - - -
PBT 2,754 1,357 1,587 2,758 2,874 5,716 5,866 6,645 7,759
Reported PAT (after minority interest) 1,285 354 1,289 1,679 2,424 4,210 4,019 4,582 5,192
Adj PAT 1,200 1,292 1,676 1,679 2,424 3,729 4,019 4,582 5,192
EPS (Rs.) 8 9 11 11 16 24 25 29 33
Balance Sheet (0) (0) - - - - - - -
Net Worth 17,237 17,003 20,273 21,501 28,519 34,741 42,572 46,576 50,999
Deferred Tax -858 231 355 55 -1,391 -1,366 -1,366 -1,366 -1,366
Total debt 34,061 33,825 38,895 36,267 42,259 42,660 45,277 47,777 48,277
Other liabilities and provisions 14,767 14,595 13,804 11,154 13,093 22,256 22,968 23,834 25,025
Total Networth and liabilities 65,207 65,655 73,327 68,977 82,480 98,291 109,451 116,821 122,935
Gross Fixed assets 45,060 46,364 50,373 50,113 63,296 73,790 85,179 87,379 96,379
Net fixed assets 41,697 41,303 43,549 41,713 52,939 61,513 70,756 70,584 76,827
Capital work-in-progress 2,350 2,138 1,949 3,311 5,760 9,214 11,214 18,014 18,014
Goodwill - 207 1,931 3,273 3,711 3,711 3,711 3,711 3,711
Investments 3,544 2,012 1,611 4,096 8,290 7,450 7,450 7,450 7,450
Cash and Bank Balances 851 677 1,630 812 406 1,920 208 1,804 1,202
Loans & advances and other assets 4,916 6,541 7,899 5,963 4,566 5,020 5,542 6,066 6,776
Net working capital 11,849 12,776 14,759 9,809 6,808 9,463 10,570 9,194 8,955
Total assets 65,207 65,655 73,327 68,977 82,480 98,291 109,451 116,821 122,935
Capital Employed 45,471 51,063 54,998 58,468 64,273 74,090 82,625 91,101 96,815
Invested Capital (CE - cash - CWIP) 42,269 48,248 51,419 54,345 58,107 62,956 71,203 71,284 77,599
Net Debt 31,942 32,958 37,051 35,454 38,541 38,012 42,341 43,245 44,347
Cash Flows
Cash flows from Operations (Pre-tax) 5,237 6,639 5,270 15,267 15,592 3,582 9,935 13,748 14,330
Cash flows from Operations (post-tax) 3,768 5,636 4,972 14,189 15,142 2,077 8,089 11,684 11,763
Capex -15,515 -1,200 -3,862 -1,847 -15,015 -14,645 -13,389 -9,000 -9,000
Free cashflows -11,747 4,436 1,110 12,342 127 -12,569 -5,300 2,684 2,763
Free cashflows (post interest costs) -14,807 792 -3,012 8,583 -2,793 -15,223 -8,141 -328 -332
Cash flows from Investing -12,629 -1,021 -3,889 -3,536 -18,249 -12,516 -12,599 -8,170 -8,129
Cash flows from Financing 8,855 -4,546 -707 -11,080 2,774 10,527 2,799 -1,919 -4,235
Total cash & liquid investments 2,120 867 1,844 812 3,718 4,648 2,936 4,532 3,930
Source: Spark Capital

Page 82
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

Financial Summary (Consolidated)


Growth and Ratios
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
Key variables (sector specific)
Retail Gross Leasable Area (msf) 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.9 5.9 6.9 6.9 7.9
Retail and commercial area leased in msf 0.7 5.2 5.6 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.3 8.3 9.0
Retail and commercial rentals in Rs.mn 5,388 6,210 7,097 7,748 9,159 10,717 11,658 13,183 15,146
Growth ratios
Revenue 208% 14% 8% 3% -11% 22% 10% 9% 12%
EBITDA 158% 12% 3% 8% -8% 28% 9% 11% 13%
Adj PAT 42% 8% 30% 0% 44% 54% 8% 14% 13%
Margin ratios
EBITDA 47% 46% 44% 46% 48% 50% 50% 50% 51%
Adj PAT 8% 8% 9% 9% 15% 19% 18% 19% 19%
Performance ratios
Pre-tax OCF/EBITDA 77.2% 87.1% 67.0% 180.3% 200.5% 36.1% 91.6% 114.3% 105.3%
OCF/IC (%) 9% 12% 10% 26% 26% 3% 11% 16% 15%
RoE (%) 7% 2% 7% 8% 10% 13% 10% 10% 11%
RoCE(%) 9% 10% 7% 8% 7% 9% 9% 9% 9%
RoCE (Pre-tax) 14% 13% 12% 13% 11% 13% 12% 12% 13%
RoIC (Pre-tax) 10% 10% 8% 9% 8% 11% 10% 11% 12%
Fixed asset turnover (x) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4
Total asset turnover (x) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Financial stability ratios
Net Debt to Equity (x) 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9
Net Debt to EBITDA (x) 4.7 4.3 4.7 4.2 5.0 3.8 3.9 3.6 3.3
Interest cover (x) 1 1 1 3 4 1 2 3 3
Cash conversion days 299 282 303 196 153 174 176 140 122
Working capital days 232 252 280 148 66 82 90 56 40
Valuation metrics
Fully Diluted Shares (mn) 145 145 153 153 153 153 160 160 160
Market cap (Rs.mn) 110,083 110,167 116,272 116,331 116,388 116,500 121,266 121,266 121,266
P/E (x) 91.7 85.3 69.4 69.3 48.0 31.2 30.2 26.5 23.4
P/OCF(x) 22.2 17.5 22.1 7.6 7.5 32.5 11.7 8.5 8.1
EV (Rs.mn)(ex-CWIP) 145,979 147,208 151,490 148,531 149,169 145,186 147,515 141,619 142,721
EV/ EBITDA (x) 21.5 19.3 19.3 17.5 19.2 14.6 13.6 11.8 10.5
EV/ OCF(x) 27.9 22.2 28.7 9.7 9.6 40.5 14.8 10.3 10.0
FCF Yield -10% 1% -2% 6% -2% -10% -6% 0% 0%
Price to BV (x) 6.4 6.5 5.7 5.4 4.1 3.4 2.8 2.6 2.4
Dividend pay-out (%) 21% 45% 50% 23% 21% 10% 13% 12% 13%
Dividend yield (%) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%

Source: Spark Capital

Page 83
INITIATING COVERAGE – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

Crystal Ball Gazing


Phoenix Mills Limited (PML) is a leading developer and operator of malls with a strong portfolio of eight malls across six cities, and a gross leasable
area of ~6msf garnering a rental income of ~Rs. 10bn (FY20E). PML is currently in midst of aggressively expanding its retail portfolio, with GLA doubling
to ~11.7msf. PML’s commercial portfolio which is largely to complement its retail assets is also set to increase multifold from 1.4msf currently to
5.5msf by FY25E. Overall we expect PML’s rental income to grow at a CAGR of 20% over the next five years led by re-pricing of its existing assets, and
new developments. Despite a strong capex phase, PML’s balance sheet remains comfortable with net debt to equity of 1x while strong cash flow
generation will continue to fuel long term expansion plans.

We value retail and commercial rentals at 9% cap


Expect rental CAGR of 11% over the next 3 years RoE% to increase to around 11%
rate

FY11-FY14 FY14-FY18 FY19-FY23E FY11-FY14 FY14-FY18 FY19-FY23E NAV Price target

Revenues CAGR 90% -1% 11% RoE (%) 6% 8% 11% 1,88,392 1,200

EBITDA CAGR 69% 1% 11% RoCE (%) 6% 8% 9%


RoIC (%) 9% 8% 11%
EBITDA margin 52% 46% 50%
Average 1 yr fwd
EPS CAGR 13% 21% 12%
PB (x) 1.6 2.8
Total Asset Turnover (x) 0.16 0.24 0.22
EV/EBITDA (x) 13.6 12.1
Total WC days 454.0 164.8 46.0
Peak 1 yr fwd
Pre-tax OCF/EBITDA (%) 94% 149% 108% PB (x) 2.1 3.7
Post Tax OCF as a % of IC 11% 21% 15% EV/EBITDA (x) 18.3 14.5
Debt/EBITDA 6.3 4.6 3.4

TOTAL
Entry = Rs.770 @ 2.6x Cumulative Dividends of Based on FY23E SOTP RETURN OF
FY21E BPS Rs.10/share Valuations 56%

Page 84
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

Spark Disclaimer
Spark Disclaimer
Spark Capital Advisors (India) Private Limited (Spark Capital) and its affiliates are engaged in investment banking, investment advisory and institutional equities. Spark Capital is registered with SEBI as a Stock Broker, corporate
member on the Bombay Stock Exchange and National Stock Exchange and Category I Merchant Banker. We hereby declare that our activities were neither suspended nor we have defaulted with any stock exchange authority
with whom we are registered in the last five years. We have not been debarred from doing business by any Stock Exchange/SEBI or any other authorities, nor has our certificate of registration been cancelled by SEBI at any point
of time.
Spark Capital has two wholly owned subsidiaries (1) Spark Family Office and Investment Advisors (India) Private Limited which is engaged in the services of providing investment advisory services and is registered with SEBI as
Investment Advisor and (2) Spark Alternative Asset Advisors India Private Limited engaged in the business of Category II Alternate Investment Fund. Spark Capital have two more subsidiaries (1) Spark Fund Managers Private
Limited which is engaged in the business of Portfolio Management Services and is registered with SEBI (2) Spark Fund Advisors LLP registered with SEBI as Category III Alternate Investment Fund which was originally an associate
entity and became subsidiary with effect from August 01, 2018. Spark Capital also has an associate company Spark Infra Advisors (India) Private Limited which is engaged in the business of providing infrastructure advisory
services.
Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits
and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or
passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident
of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject Spark Capital and/or its affiliates to any
registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The securities described herein may or may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to a certain category of investors. Persons in whose possession this document
may come are required to inform themselves of and to observe such applicable restrictions. This material should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such
an offer or solicitation would be illegal.
Spark Capital makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained in this document. Spark Capital , its affiliates, and the employees of
Spark Capital and its affiliates may, from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to perform
investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report.
This report has been prepared on the basis of information, which is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through an independent analysis by Spark Capital. While we would endeavour to update the
information herein on a reasonable basis, Spark Capital and its affiliates are under no obligation to update the information. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that prevent Spark Capital and its affiliates
from doing so. Neither Spark Capital nor its affiliates or their respective directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be responsible or liable in any manner, directly or indirectly, for views or opinions expressed in this
report or the contents or any errors or discrepancies herein or for any decisions or actions taken in reliance on the report or the inability to use or access our service in this report or for any loss or damages whether direct or
indirect, incidental, special or consequential including without limitation loss of revenue or profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of or reliance on this report.
Spark Capital and/or its affiliates and/or employees may have interests/positions, financial or otherwise in the securities mentioned in this report. To enhance transparency, Spark Capital has incorporated a disclosure of interest
statement in this document. This should however not be treated as endorsement of views expressed in this report:

Details of Financial Interest of Research Entity [Spark Capital Advisors (India) Private Limited] and its Associates No
Details of Financial Interest of covering analyst/ and his relatives No
Disclosure of interest statement

Investment banking relationship with the company covered No


Any other material conflict of interest at the time of publishing the research report by Spark and its associates No
Receipt of compensation by Spark Capital or its Associate Companies from the subject company covered for in the last twelve months:
▪ Managing/co-managing public offering of securities ; Investment banking/merchant banking/brokerage services ; Products or services other than those above in connection with research report; No
Compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report
Whether covering analyst has served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company covered No
Whether the Spark and its associates has been engaged in market making activity of the Subject Company No
Whether the research entity or its associates, has actual/beneficial ownership of one per cent. or more securities of the subject company, at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication
No
of the research report

Page 85
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880

Spark Disclaimer
Analyst Certification of Independence
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst’s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst’s compensations was, is or will be, directly or
indirectly, related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in the report.
Additional Disclaimer for US Institutional Investors
This report was prepared, approved, published and distributed by Spark Capital Advisors (India) Pvt. Ltd a company located outside of the United States (a “non-US Group Company”). This report is distributed in the U.S. by LXM
LLP USA, a U.S. registered broker dealer, on behalf of Spark Capital Advisors (India) Pvt. Ltd only to major U.S. institutional investors (as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exchange Act”))
pursuant to the exemption in Rule 15a-6 and any transaction effected by a U.S. customer in the securities described in this report must be effected through LXM LLP USA.
Neither the report nor any analyst who prepared or approved the report is subject to U.S. legal requirements or the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc. (“FINRA”) or other regulatory requirements pertaining to research
reports or research analysts. No non-US Group Company is registered as a broker-dealer under the Exchange Act or is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Inc. or any other U.S. self-regulatory organization.
Analyst Certification. Each of the analysts identified in this report certifies, with respect to the companies or securities that the individual analyses, that (1) the views expressed in this report reflect his or her personal views about
all of the subject companies and securities and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly dependent on the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Please bear in mind that
(i) Spark Capital Advisors (India) Pvt. Ltd is the employer of the research analyst(s) responsible for the content of this report and (ii) research analysts preparing this report are resident outside the United States and are not
associated persons of any US regulated broker-dealer and that therefore the analyst(s) is/are not subject to supervision by a US broker-dealer, and are not required to satisfy the regulatory licensing requirements of FINRA or
required to otherwise comply with US rules or regulations regarding, among other things, communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
Important US Regulatory Disclosures on Subject Companies. This material was produced by Spark Capital Advisors (India) Pvt. Ltd solely for information purposes and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced under
any circumstances and is not to be copied or made available to any person other than the recipient. It is distributed in the United States of America by LXM LL P USA and elsewhere in the world by Spark Capital Advisors (India)
Pvt. Ltd or an authorized affiliate of Spark Capital Advisors (India) Pvt. Ltd . This document does not constitute an offer of, or an invitation by or on behalf of Spark Capital Advisors (India) Pvt. Ltd or its affiliates or any other
company to any person, to buy or sell any security. The information contained herein has been obtained from published information and other sources, which Spark Capital Advisors (India) Pvt. Ltd or its Affiliates consider to be
reliable. None of Spark Capital Advisors (India) Pvt. Ltd accepts any liability or responsibility whatsoever for the accuracy or completeness of any such information. All estimates, expressions of opinion and other subjective
judgments contained herein are made as of the date of this document. Emerging securities markets may be subject to risks significantly higher than more established markets. In particular, the political and economic
environment, company practices and market prices and volumes may be subject to significant variations. The ability to assess such risks may also be limited due to significantly lower information quantity and quality. By
accepting this document, you agree to be bound by all the foregoing provisions.
LXM LLP USA assumes responsibility for the research reports content in regards to research distributed in the U.S. LXM LLP USA or its affiliates has not managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for the subject
company in the past 12 months, has not received compensation for investment banking services from the subject company in the past 12 months, does not expect to receive and does not intend to seek compensation for
investment banking services from the subject company in the next 3 months. LXM LLP USA has never owned any class of equity securities of the subject company. There are not any other actual, material conflicts of interest of
LXM LLP USA at the time of the publication of this research report. As of the publication of this report LXM LLP USA, does not make a market in the subject securities.

BUY Stock expected to provide positive returns of >15% over a 1-year horizon REDUCE Stock expected to provide returns of <5% – -10% over a 1-year horizon
Absolute Rating
Interpretation
ADD Stock expected to provide positive returns of >5% – <15% over a 1-year horizon SELL Stock expected to fall >10% over a 1-year horizon

SPARK CAPITAL ADVISORS | Board: +91.44. 4344 0000 | www.sparkcapital.in


Spark Capital Advisors (India) Pvt. Ltd. is a SEBI registered Research Analyst bearing SEBI Registration No. INH200001459

Page 86

You might also like