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Phoenix IC
Phoenix IC
Phoenix IC
December, 2019
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PHOENIX MILLS CMP Target Price Rating
Rs.770 Rs.880 BUY
‘‘Not your run of the mill mall operator” - Initiating Coverage with a BUY rating
Phoenix Mills Limited (PML) is a leading developer and operator of malls with a strong portfolio of eight malls across six cities, and a gross leasable area of
~6msf yielding a rental income of ~Rs. 10bn (FY20E). PML’s expertise in acquiring, designing and developing well-located land parcels, and best in class mall
management skills have given the company an edge over other mall developers, evidenced by a strong consumption CAGR of 13% over FY14-FY19 across its INITIATING COVERAGE
malls with average occupancy of 95% as of FY19. Post a consolidation phase seen in FY13-FY17, PML is currently in the midst of aggressively expanding its 18th December, 2019
retail portfolio, adding five new malls (one new mall each year from FY20-FY24) with GLA doubling to ~11.7msf. PML’s commercial portfolio which is largely
to complement its retail assets is also set to increase multifold from 1.4msf currently to 5.5msf by FY25E. Overall, we expect PML’s rental income to grow at Industry REAL ESTATE
a CAGR of 20% over the next five years led by rent renewals at existing assets, and new developments. Despite a strong capex phase, PML’s balance sheet
ratios remain comfortable with net debt to equity of 1x while strong cash flow generation will continue to fuel long term expansion plans. Key Stock Data
We initiate coverage with a BUY rating with a TP of Rs.880/share based on SoTP (refer slide no. 78). Existing operational assets Bloomberg PHNX IN
(malls/offices/hotels/residential) contribute 75% to our total GNAV, and therefore, provides valuation comfort. Furthermore, implied cap rate for its rental
business works out to ~10% at CMP, which is attractive compared to listed global REITS which trade in the range of 3-4%. Given its high-quality assets, strong Shares o/s 153mn
cash generation potential, and growth visibility, we expect cap rates to compress post commencement of new assets. We are factoring cap rate of 9% for its
rental portfolio (existing and upcoming). Market Cap Rs. 119bn
Key investment thesis:
1. Best proxy for organised retailing and luxury brands growth in India: PML’s rental arrangements are consumption linked, and hence it’s a direct play on 52-wk High-Low Rs. 799-549
increasing share of organised retailing in India. The penetration of organized retail (including E-tail) is very low at ~12% compared to 25-50% in comparable
3m ADV Rs. 148mn
South East economies. However, organised retail is growing rapidly at 20-25%, and a similar trajectory is expected to continue over the next five years led by
increasing aspirations, urbanization and penetration of big brands into tier 2-3 cities. Within the organised retailing space, our estimates suggest that Index BSE 500
consumption through malls commands a market share of ~20%. Given PML’s scale of operations and multi-city presence, it has become a preferred partner for
luxury/international brands to gain entry into India’s retail market. Notably, PML’s flagship mall, High Street Phoenix in Mumbai has ~60% of its tenants selling Latest shareholding (%)
international/luxury brands. Reliance Fashion (has exclusive licenses in India to sell multiple international luxury brands) sales grew at ~38% CAGR over the last
three years, thereby indicating fast-growing demand for this category. We believe PML’s malls remain the best proxy to play this growth. Promoters 59.2
2. Retail rental income set to double – Consumption led rental growth in existing assets + Stabilization of new malls: PML’s current malls under operation
Institutions 33.3
generate strong cash flows with average asset-level RoIC (pre-tax) of around 16%-18%, with its flagship mall, High Street Phoenix topping the list. PML’s rental
from its operational assets is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11% over the next three years largely led by re-pricing given a high share of renewals are expected Public 7.5
till FY22, and steady growth in consumption, complemented by the company’s impressive mall management skills. Expect around 50% of the leasable area to
come under renewals. Further, new assets are expected to drive rental income growth gradually given one new mall is expected to be added each year till
FY24E. Given its strong track record and existing relationships with retailers/brand owners, we expect PML to achieve high rates of pre-leasing in upcoming
malls. For an instance, pre-leasing in its upcoming mall (4QFY20) in Lucknow stands at 85%, thus evidencing the company’s brand recall. The new malls are
expected to generate ~Rs.5bn of rental income post the stabilization phase (FY24-25E). Overall we expect PML’s retail rental income to almost double to ~Rs.
19.8bn by FY24E from Rs. 10.7bn in FY20E
3. Multifold increase in GLA and income from commercial portfolio: PML currently has a commercial portfolio of ~1.4msf which is set to increase by ~4x to
5.5msf, of which ~1.0 msf is under development and the remaining under planning. Entire commercial development is in close proximity to its existing mall RESEARCH ANALYSTS
assets as they complement PML’s retail assets by providing a strong catchment and steady footfalls even on weekdays. Overall, we expect commercial business
rental income to grow from Rs. 1.4bn in FY20E to Rs. 3.8bn by FY24E. GIRISH CHOUDHARY
4. Strong operating cash flow capability and increased scale of operations to support long term capex requirements: With ~40% of the total capex girish@sparkcapital.in
requirement (retail and office expansions) of ~Rs. 65bn already spent, we expect the remaining to be largely met out of internal accruals from its existing assets +91 44 4344 0021
and steady inflows from its residential business in Bangalore. We expect PML to generate cumulative operating cash flows (post-tax) to the tune of ~Rs. 39bn GAURAV NAGORI
over FY21-FY23E which will largely cater to its remaining capex and hence, do not expect a material increase in leverage from the current levels. Given PML’s gaurav@sparkcapital.in
long term plan is to continue adding 1msf of retail space each year post FY24E, we expect an increased scale of operations to suffice the capex requirements and +91 44 4344 0072
also pare down the current debt levels.
find SPARK RESEARCH on Bloomberg [RESP SPAK <go>] | FACTSET | REFINITIV EIKON Page 2
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Corporate Factsheet
The Phoenix Mills entered the real estate market with commercial projects in Mumbai (Phoenix House and
Company Background Centre), and the famous High Street Phoenix mall in Mumbai. The company has 8 operational malls and
commercial projects in Mumbai & Pune in addition to residential projects in Bangalore and Chennai.
Phoenix develops malls under the High Street Phoenix (Mumbai), Palladium (Mumbai, Chennai), MarketCity
Presence (Mumbai, Bangalore, Chennai, Pune) and United (Lucknow, Bareilly) brands. The company has upcoming malls
in Pune, Indore, Lucknow, Ahmedabad and Bangalore.
▪ Mr. Atul Ruia – Chairman and Managing Director ▪ Mr. Pradumna Kanodia – Director (Finance)
Management depth
▪ Mr. Shishir Srivastava – Joint Managing Director ▪ Mr. Rajendra Kelkar – President and Whole time Director
Revenue contribution FY19 - Retail – 58%; Residential – 19%; Hospitality and Others – 18%; Commercial – 5%
Retail: Commercial:
Residential: Hospitality:
Operational – 5.9msf Operational – 1.32msf
Projects Operational – 3.2msf Operational – 588 keys
Ongoing – 4.9msf Ongoing – 1.0msf
Upcoming – 0.5msf
Planned – 0.9msf Planned – 3.2msf
Page 3
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
PML has transformed itself successfully from a textile company to one of the largest mall operator in India
Started its first ever mall in Mumbai; Gradually entered in major cities in India and created a diversified portfolio of offices, hotels and residential spaces
▪ Began operations ▪ Listed on the BSE ▪ Phoenix House ▪ Entered into the ▪ The first multi- ▪ Opened 20 lane ▪ HSP emerged as a ▪ The first multi-
as a textile commercial centre growing real estate storied Phoenix bowling concourse, model for retail-led storied Phoenix
manufacturing became market where High residential towers the first of its kind development towers were built
company on 17.3 operational Street Phoenix were built on the in India and largest centre with on the Phoenix
acres land in Lower emerged as the Phoenix Mills Land in South Asia introduction of Big Mills Land
Parel Mumbai most frequented Bazaar
destination in
Mumbai
▪ Partnered with ▪ The St. Regis, ▪ Launched Phoenix ▪ Launched ▪ Launched Phoenix ▪ Launched ▪ Celebrated ▪ Pantaloon and
CPPIB to develop Mumbai, the Market City Mall, Palladium Hotel, a MarketCity in Palladium Mall, an 100years Lifestyle, two large
retailed led mixed premiere most Chennai, a mixed 5 star luxury hotel, Pune, Bengaluru architecturally anniversary departmental
use development brand in Starwood use asset with 300+ nestled above the and Kurla designed first of its stores, each
assets (PML has Hotels portfolio stores Palladium Mall (Mumbai) and kind super luxury covering
51% stake in the begins operations ▪ Launched West acquired Phoenix premium and approximately
JV-ISMDPL) with 30 storey United (Bareilly iconic mall in HSP 50,000 sq ft
high-rise towers and Lucknow) complex operational
▪ Total brands = 300
(national &
International)
Page 4
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Company Overview: PML derives majority of its revenue from retail segment (~about 60%)
Total area under offering in each segment Retail contributed 58% to overall FY19 revenues
Under
Business FY19 Revenue Split
Operational Area Development Under Planning Total
Vertical
(by FY24E) Hospitality & Others
18%
Retail (Malls) 6.0 4.9 0.9 11.8
Commercial
5%
Residential 3.0 0.2 0.5 3.7
Retail
Hospitality Residential 58%
588 keys
(Hotel) 19%
Commercial
1.9 1.0 3.2 6.1
(Offices)
Commercial
4% Retail
67% Pune
Mumbai 18%
45%
Page 5
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
MALL
HOSPITALITY
1. HSP & Palladium
(0.74msf) (100%) 1. Courtyard by Marriott
2. PMC Kurla (193 keys) (80%)
(1.14msf) (100%)
MALL
Page 6
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
FY13 FY20E
5% RoE % 10% 5%
5% RoCE % 9% 4%
Free Cash Flow (post interest & other income) (Rs. 35bn)
Page 7
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
02 ▪ One of the largest malls in its operating market ▪ Proxy to play international/luxury brands 02
03 ▪ Located in quality catchment areas ▪ Non-linear growth in return metrics linked to ATD 03
04 ▪ Among highest trading densities across malls ▪ Narrowing gap between consumption and rentals 04
06 ▪ Mixed-use developments aid steady footfalls ▪ Retail rental income to double by FY25E 06
08 ▪ Lower threat from existing/upcoming malls ▪ No significant cash outflow from residential business 08
Page 8
RETAIL SECTION
Page 9
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
PML has eight operational malls currently with an area of ~6msf and five upcoming malls with area of ~5msf; One mall is expected to be added each year until FY24E
Phoenix MarketCity Chennai Chennai 1.0 263 50% Classic Mall Developers Operational FY13
Phoenix MarketCity Mumbai Mumbai 1.1 311 100% Offbeat Developers Operational FY11
Phoenix MarketCity Pune Pune 1.2 352 100% Vamona Developers Operational FY11
Phoenix United Lucknow Lucknow 0.3 128 100% UPAL Developers Operational FY10
Phoenix United Bareilly Bareilly 0.3 139 100% Blackwood Developers Operational FY12
Page 10
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
PML’s Mall Overview- Aggregate malls rental increased inline with consumption and led by improving average trading density and mall space
addition in last five years
PML’s aggregate consumption grew by 8% and 11% CAGR in last three and five years respectively PML a good proxy to play consumption growth in India
Page 11
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
While HSP & Palladium’s area is just 12% of PML’s aggregate mall area, the mall contributes 35% to overall retail EBITDA; PML’s trading density is
2x of other malls due to its access to better catchment, and higher luxury brand mix.
HSP and Palladium (Mumbai) area is 12% of PML’s overall mall operational area
But HSP and Palladium’s rental is 35% of overall PML’s aggregate rental
(~6msf)
Mall-wise Area Contribution Mall-wise Rental Contribution
Phoenix United Phoenix United
Phoenix United (Bareilly) HSP & Palladium Phoenix United
(Lucknow) (Bareilly)
(Lucknow) 5% (Mumbai) Palladium (Chennai) 3%
5% 12% 2%
3%
Palladium (Chennai) HSP & Palladium
PMC - Chennai (Mumbai)
3%
PMC - Bangalore 15% 35%
PMC - Chennai 17%
17%
PMC - Mumbai
12%
Trading density at HSP and Palladium is twice as that of other malls of PML
500
-
Palladium Chennai Phoenix United Bareilly Phoenix United Lucknow PMC - Mumbai PMC - Pune PMC - Chennai PMC - Bangalore HSP & Palladium
Page 12
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Last five year Snapshot of PML’s malls- Most of the malls have seen double digit consumption growth in last three year and five year periods
Currently top three malls rentals account for 65% of PML’s total retail rental income
PMC - Bangalore 17% 19% 14% 13% 14% 13% 13% 16% 11% 11% 745 1,287 1,680
PMC - Pune 21% 18% 16% 12% 14% 15% 15% 14% 12% 13% 653 1,077 1,334
PMC - Mumbai 19% 14% 12% 17% 16% 8% 5% 27% 16% 13% 454 797 1,161
PMC - Chennai 17% 16% 15% -1% 10% 8% 12% 23% 11% 14% 800 1,572 1,505
Phoenix United
5% 5% 3% 16% NA 14% NA NA 10% 9% NA 882 1,113
(Lucknow)
Phoenix United
5% 3% 2% 4% NA 11% NA NA 9% 11% NA 597 827
(Bareilly)
Page 13
INDUSTRY
Page 14
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
# Malls landscape in Tier-1 Cities – Supply declined in last five years and more so in malls with area of more than 0.4msf: Demand for A-Grade malls
(area>0.4msf) has increased significantly in past few years; Supply remains constrained due to high upfront capex
Total retail/mall (area>25,000sf) supply in top seven cities declined to 39msf in last five years versus 49msf in Cumulative supply is 26msf higher than cumulative
FY10-14 occupancy yielding a 19% vacancy rate
Note: Tier 1 cities comprise 7 top cities viz. MMR, NCR, Chennai, Bangalore, Kolkata, Hyderabad, Pune by absorption. Source: Propequity, Spark Capital
Supply has been much lower in Grade-A malls (area over 0.4msf) due to high capex requirement Only 50 malls are over 0.4msf in Tier-1 cities
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
Malls with area < 0.4msf
Malls with area < 0.4 msf Malls with area > 0.4 msf 1,040
Note: Tier 1 cities comprise 7 top cities viz. MMR, NCR, Chennai, Bangalore, Kolkata, Hyderabad, Pune by absorption. Source: Propequity, Spark Capital
Page 15
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Lower supply and higher demand for Grade-A malls led to one of the lowest vacancy historically; Vacancy in Grade-A Malls is 10% versus 19%
for total mall/retail space in top seven cities
Cumulative supply in last five years for Grade-A malls declined to 14.2msf versus
Vacancy rate in Grade-A malls plunged to lowest in last 10 years
20.7 between FY10-15
22.0 20.7 35%
19.7 33%
20.0 30% 31%
18.0 26%
25%
24%
16.0
14.2 21% 21%
20% 20% 19% 20%
14.0 13.2 19% 18% 19% 19%
15% 16%
12.0 15% 15%
12% 12%
11% 11% 11%
10.0 10%
FY10-15 FY15-19 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Current
Grade-A malls new supply(msf) Grade-A space occupied (msf) Grade-A malls vacancy rate % Overall vacancy rate %
Note: Tier 1 cities comprise 7 top cities viz. MMR, NCR, Chennai, Bangalore, Kolkata, Hyderabad, Pune by absorption. Grade A malls comprise of malls over 0.4msf. Source: Propequity, Spark Capital
City-wise total mall demand-supply and vacancy rate data; Chennai has the lowest vacancy rate whereas NCR has the highest amongst the top seven cities in India
Note: Tier 1 cities comprise 7 top cities viz. MMR, NCR, Chennai, Bangalore, Kolkata, Hyderabad, Pune by absorption. Source: Propequity, Spark Capital
Page 16
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Numbers of malls 129 150 176 Numbers of malls 116 149 176
Bengaluru Malls over 0.4 msf 6 8 10 Mumbai Malls over 0.4 msf 7 7 7
Pune Malls over 0.4 msf 4 5 6 Navi Mumbai + Thane Malls over 0.4 msf 3 5 6
Greater Noida + Noida Malls over 0.4 msf 2 4 6 Hyderabad Malls over 0.4 msf 1 3 5
Gurugram Malls over 0.4 msf 1 1 1 Kolkata Malls over 0.4 msf 4 5 5
Numbers of malls 104 118 123 Numbers of malls 127 193 297
New Delhi Malls over 0.4 msf 6 8 8 Ahmedabad Malls over 0.4 msf 5 5 5
Chennai Malls over 0.4 msf 1 3 5 Lucknow Malls over 0.4 msf 1 1 1
Page 17
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Tier-2 Cities- Mall operators are entering in emerging Tier-2 cities with improving per capita income; There are only ~40 Grade-A malls (>0.4msf) in
27 Tier-2 cities in India providing enough scope for mall operators to grow their presence
Only 4 malls are added with an area of more than 0.4msf in 27 Tier-2 cities in last four years
City wise mall supply data- Ahmedabad has the highest number of Grade A mall in India
7
6 Number of malls with area over 0.4msf
6
4
3
3
2 2 2 2 2 2 2
2
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1
0
Ahmedabad Ludhiana Amritsar Coimbatore Jaipur Cochin Lucknow Mangalore Mohali Bhiwadi Bhopal Bhubaneshwar Chandigarh Nagpur Raipur Trivandrum
Page 18
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
We list Tier-2 cities with high potential on the basis of high existing mall stock mostly Grade B and C malls which can be replaced by Grade-A malls
and E-tail hotspots identified on the basis of highest number of Google queries associated with purchasing apparel
Below top 10 Tier-2 cities in India has higher potential due to high population, per capita income/spending and number of B and C grade malls which can be replaced by high
quality Grade-A malls
We have identified cities that could be potential growth pockets for PHNX during its
Tier 1 Cities next leg of growth into Tier-2 markets. The list of cities (in no specific rank) are
divided into two buckets viz. Top 10 and Next 10 on the basis of e-tailing hotspots
Tier 2 Cities (seen on the map to the left), and existing retail supply in these cities (Source:
Tier 3 Cities Propequity)
Top 10 Next 10
Surat Rajkot
Jaipur Bhopal
Nagpur Ludhiana
Vadodara Agra
Cochin Amritsar
Patna Raipur
E-tail hotspots
identified on the basis Vizag Mohali
of highest number of
Google queries Goa Trivandrum
associated with
purchasing apparel. Coimbatore Nashik
Page 19
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Play on organised retail market in India- India Retail market size is pegged at approx.~ Rs.60trn and expected to grow at 12% CAGR over next five
years; Modern retail growth is expected to be higher than industry growth
Total retail market in India has grown at 13-14% CAGR in last six years to Rs.~60trn
Retail market in India is expected to grow at 12% CAGR over next five years
as of FY19
Retail Market Size (Rs.tn) 14%
12%
160 12%
140
140 10%
120 8%
8% 7% 7%
100 89 6%
6%
80 4%
53 4% 3%
60 43 47 2%
2%
40 26 2%
12 16
20 7 0%
0 Hong Kong Australia Singapore Thailand Phillipines Indonesia China Vietnam India
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2017 2018 2022E 2026E
Retail Sales Growth % (FY18-22E) APAC Growth % (FY18-22E)
Only 12% of overall retail market is organized Organized retail penetration is one of the lowest versus other countries
Source : IBEF, Spark Capital Source : Bain & Co, Spark Capital
Page 20
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
While total retail market is expected to grow at 12% CAGR over next five years, Organised retail is expected to grow by more than 30% CAGR over
next five years due to aggressive e-commerce platforms and A-grade malls
Organized retail market is expected to be 25% of overall retail market by 2022E
Various Retail formats in India
from 12% currently
Retail market split
100%
3% 7% Retail Store Formats
90% 9%
18%
80%
70% Organized/Modern
Unorganized
Retail
88%
60%
75%
Small, typically Large, branded, modern.
50% family owned Includes e-tail
40%
FY18 FY24E
Brick & Mortar e-Tailing
Unorganized/Traditional Organized/Modern E-Tail Street Vendors
Page 21
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Increase in overall retail spend (function of increasing per capita income) and penetration of organised retail (increasing tax compliances) offers
long term growth visibility to Malls and E-tailers
Top seven cities accounts for 15% of overall retail spend in India whereas next 6
City-wise retail spend in India
cities account for 20% of overall retail spend
Total India Retail Spend Retail Spend (Rs.bn)
1,037
Top 7 cities Mumbai
14% Next 15 cities 2,243
9%
899
Next 50 cities NCR
Rest of India 11% 1,919
66%
549
Bangalore
1,155
319
27% Kolkata
26% 589
22%
238
18% Pune
15% 545
13%
11%
225
Chennai
507
Page 22
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Retail Industry Category wise market size and organized share- Relevant market size for malls is organised segment of Retail ex Grocery
Food and Grocery accounts for 65% of overall retail market; Relevant market for mall operators is organized segment of rest 35% (Retail ex Grocery)
0.5 tn
1.9 tn
Luggage 0.2 tn 0.1 tn Apparel 4.8 tn
Market Size
Organized
Footwear 0.7 tn Food & Grocery 33.5 tn Sector
0.1 tn
1.8 tn
Page 23
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Almost ~60% of a mall consumption is driven by Apparels, Footwear and accessories, Personal care and Food and Beverages (F&B) categories; 80 %
of the listed apparel brands in PMC malls are owned by Reliance brands, ABFRL, Future Retail, Trent and Arvind fashions
~60% of a mall consumption is driven by Apparels, Footwear and accessories, Brands prevalent in malls- Sub-brands of Reliance brands, ABFRL, Future Retail, Trent and
Personal care and Food and Beverages (F&B) categories Arvind fashions account for 80% of total brands
Consumption Apparel brands split in a PMC
Category Area Contribution Brands as a % of total
Contribution Arvind
Others
17%
Apparels 16% 24% 33% 20%
Revenue growth of these five apparel retailers is in mid double digit in last three
High growth for these brands is driven by opening of exclusive stores
years and expected to grow in same range over next three years
Revenue Growth for major apparel players EBO store growth 3Y CAGR
38%
40% 40% 36%
35% 35%
29%
30% 25% 30%
25% 21% 24%
17% 18% 25% 20%
20% 17% 19%
14% 15% 15% 20%
15% 11% 12% 12% 15%
10%
15% 10%
10%
5% 10% 6%
0% 5%
Pantaloons Arvind ABFRL Page Trent Reliance V-Mart Retail 0%
Fashion Industries Fashion Madhura Arvind Trent Page V-Mart Retail Pantaloons Reliance
Lifestyle Fashion Industries Fashion
FY16-19 FY19-21E
Page 24
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Footwear & accessories- One of the highest growing category in India; Growth is in high double digit esp. branded accessories category
Total market for fashion retail (footwear and accessories) has been growing in Growth is driven by EBOs in malls and fashion streets
double digit
2.0
Growth of fashion retail in India Channel-wise sales of footwear
0.6 LFS Online
1.5 7% 3%
Sub-segment split of various accessories market in India 25% of accessories sales happen through malls
Socks,
handkerchiefs,
scarves, gloves, Bags, belts &
mufflers wallets
27% 60%
Unorganized Retail
Stores
63%
Page 25
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Personal Care – While personal care market is expected to grow by 9% CAGR over next five years, branded segment is expected to grow in double
digit
Market size for Personal care sub-segment Top personal care categories and brands
1,800
Personal Care segments (Rs.bn)
1,600 90
128
1,400 158
1,200 9% 173
1,000 225
47
60
800 74 218
101
600 121
11%
21 127 360
400 21 21
48 221
54
59
200 112 330
228
118
-
2012 2017 2022
Bath & Shower Hair Care Oral Care Skin Care
Others Makeup Cosmetics Fragrances Men's Grooming
About ~25% of personal care products are sold through modern trade channels; Mall operators are allocating higher space to personal care brands
Others
LFS – Large format stores
LFS MBO – Multi-brand outlet
75% 3% 22% 14% 27%
EBO – Exclusive-brand outlet
Direct Sales
General Trade Online Modern Trade 22%
Page 26
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Luxury Goods – Segment grew at 18% CAGR in last three years; Given paucity of Grade A malls, malls with higher footfalls offers a launch pad to
international brands who wants to enter in India;
A typical mall allocated 5% of the space to super-luxury brands and 30% to semi-
Luxury goods market is growing in double digit in India
luxury brands
Grade-A mall approx. area split
Luxury Goods (Rs. bn)
Luxury
Mass Segment 5% 10% 769
20%
18% 584
Semi-Premium
30% 16%
358
227
Mid Segment
2013 2016 2019 2022
45%
Source: Industry, Spark Capital Source: Industry, Spark Capital
Marquee brands who entered in India by leasing space in malls Luxury goods- Evolving and high growth segment for malls
Mall operator Year of entry ✓ Luxury goods market grew at 18% CAGR in last three years
and expected to grow in double digit over next five years as
H&M Select CityWalk 2015 well.
✓ Malls typically allocate ~35% of area to luxury brands.
Armani Exchange Select CityWalk 2016 ✓ In India, lot of international brands launch their pilot store in
malls before starting EBOs outside malls as malls provides
Aldo HSP/Palladium 2003 brands insights on Indian consumers spending pattern.
✓ Also, it is seen that consumers prefer to buy luxury good from
Uniqlo Ambience Mall 2018 malls (“Try and buy”) than E-tailing due to high ticket size.
✓ We believe high proportion of international brands will drive
Aptronix HSP/Palladium 2008 the overall consumption in PML malls .
Page 27
KEY STRENGTHS
Page 28
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
# PML malls are amongst the largest mall in each of the city of operation offering shopping and entertainment options
Top five malls in PML’s city of operation; PML malls have leasable area of atleast 0.4msf and are one of the largest malls in each of the city of operation
Mantri Developers – Mantri Square Mall 0.90 msf 0.90 msf Phoenix Mills – Phoenix Market City - Pune 1.20 msf
Forum Mall - Koramangala 0.80 msf City Group (Amanora) – Amanora Town Centre 1.20 msf
0.80 msf
Page 29
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
# All of PML’s malls (except United malls) are amongst the top 20 malls in India by trading density
While HSP, PMCs Bangalore & Chennai have high ATDs, PMC Pune & Kurla are slowly catching up with the all India average on this front
Orion Mall Bangalore PMC Bangalore Bangalore Select City Walk New Delhi
PMC Pune Pune PMC Chennai Chennai HSP & Palladium Mumbai
VR Mall Chennai Chennai DLF Mall of India Noida Ambience Mall Gurugram
PMC Mumbai Mumbai Elante Mall Chandigarh Forum Mall - Bangalore Bangalore
Page 30
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
# Presence at well thought out locations with catchment area having high per capita income population
HSP & Palladium Mumbai has unique location with virtually no competition in South Mumbai; PMC Bangalore is present in Whitefield which is IT hub in the city
2 HSP & Primary catchment(s) for HSP & Palladium at Lower Parel
1 Palladium
• HSP & Palladium, Phoenix’s flagship mall in Mumbai is uniquely placed to
service the affluent population of South Mumbai as it is in the only tier I
mall in the region. South Mumbai has one of the highest per capita income
in Mumbai. The mall houses some of the best international brands and
panders to the shopping, dining and lifestyle needs of the who’s who of
Mumbai.
2
Primary catchment(s) for PMC Mumbai at Kurla
1 • PMC Mumbai is a quick drive from Bandra-Kurla Complex, domestic and
international airports. It is well - connected by the Eastern Freeway, Eastern
Express Highway, Western Express Highway, Santacruz-Chembur Link Road,
and by the Mumbai metro.
• Although there are fewer malls in this micromarket, the mall has struggled
3 to increase consumption due to delayed execution of the metro project.
Page 31
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
# Catchment - PMC Pune and Chennai mall are present in catchment areas with many IT parks in the vicinity
PMC Pune is in Viman Nagar which is very close to most affluent area in city (Koregaon Park) and near IT corridor (Kharadi Trade Centre) whereas PMC Chennai in Velachery is
close to Tidel Park (Chennai’s IT hub)
• Residential micromarkets to the south of PMC (even over 10km away, given
low road traffic) tend to frequent PMC and Palladium in Chennai as it is the
only tier 1 mall in the region.
Page 32
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
# Transformation of Malls into Family Entertainment Centres (FEC) to thwart competition from E-tailing; PML’s USP is to focus on offering a holistic
environment for family entertainment than just being shopping hotspot
Due to threat from E-Tailing, Higher focus on entertainment (Multiplexes and play
Malls to become ‘destinations’ that sell both products and experiences
area) and F&B to attract quality footfalls
Indian malls offerings Past Present Future
Mall space dedicated for FECs
45% 40%
Shopping ✓ ✓ ✓
✓ ✓ ✓
40%
F&B
35%
✓ ✓
30% 25%
25%
Events
✓ ✓
20% 16%
15%
Entertainment Family
10%
10%
5% Services ✓
0%
2008-09 2014-15 Currently 2022-23E Mall Management ✓ ✓
Major malls in India with mall space allocated to F&B and Entertainment options
40%
10%
30%
20% 11%
20% 13% 11% 8% 7% 6%
30%
10% 21%
16% 13% 13% 16% 16% 15%
0%
Orion Mall, Bangalore DLF Promenade, Delhi DLF Mall of India, Noida Select City Walk, Delhi Phoenix MarketCity, Phoenix MarketCity, Pune Inorbit Malad, Mumbai HSP, Mumbai
Bangalore
Entertainment F&B
Page 33
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Currently almost 25-30% of mall space is dedicated to FEC options; Not just PML, even other major malls are focusing on it to attract quality
footfalls to the mall
FEC offerings by major malls in India Adventure indoor sports and Fun zone for kids in India
Smaash
Orion Mall
Timezone
Smaash
Fun City
DLF Mall of India
Snow World
Elante Smaash
Fun City
Page 34
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
FECs options available in PML malls; Multiplexes, Live music concerts and gaming areas (bowling, snooker, cricket nets, arcades) are the most
common entertainment options offered by malls in India
PML currently has play area options for Kids and Adults in its malls along with
Live music shows/concerts are common in malls now a days
multiplexes
Rock Climbing/
Adventure Sport Indoor Play Area
Children's Indoor
Amusement park Indoor Play Area for Kids
Page 35
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Malls internationally have started to focus on providing services in addition to entertainment which can aid in recurring footfalls
Globally malls have become ‘destinations’ that sell both products and experiences; Technology driven USPs to optimize experience and mall management; FECs are allotted as
high as 40% of GLA of mall
Gaming, gym, clubbing
Simon Property Group (SPG) said it will invest $5 million in the entertainment company Allied Esports, which will create
lounges for competitive video game events at Simon Malls.
Working with Niantic - the company behind AR game "Harry Potter: Wizards Unite: - to turn 200 of its shopping centres
into in-game locations that players can visit during the gameplay.
Simon in a press release listed its latest investments: in gym operator Life Time, dining and entertainment venue
Pinstripes, e-gaming company Allied Esports, Sports Illustrated and the trendy membership club Soho House.
Robots
SM Supermalls raises the bar in customer service with the introduction of SAM, the country’s first-ever in-mall smart
robot – launched at SM Megamall; SAM is an artificial intelligent (AI) humanoid robot programmed to deliver a smoother,
more personalized and efficient interaction with customers. “SAM is easy to approach and has answers to almost
everything SM mall related, making shopping more seamless and fun for our customers.”
Cryptocurrency
Emaar Group (known for the Dubai Mall) is releasing a new blockchain-based referral and loyalty platform.
The new EMR platform will reward Emaar customers with tokens for their loyalty and business referrals and an additional
utility token will act as a multi-industry referral and loyalty system, spanning Emaar’s wide array of available services,
including retail, leisure, hospitality and residential development.
Some of the biggest mall owners in the U.S., such as Simon Property Group, Taubman and Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield,
are investing in new food hall concepts, as they increasingly devote space at their properties to entertainment uses and
dining.
Lulu Group’s Line Investments & Property introduces Forsan Central Mall; Designed around the concept of a bamboo
forest with a restful ‘garden in the city’ ambience, the Mall is located strategically in central part/area Khalifa city.
Page 36
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Retail-tainment concept- Amusement parks and Recreation centres are planned inside malls internationally; Dubai malls have Aquariums inside
malls whereas Gyms and Salons are a very common in European malls
FEC offering in some of the marquee malls globally
Trapezoid artists in a
French Westfield mall
Gym
Page 37
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
# Key USP of PML is its In-house mall management team; Mall management is the only way to differentiate from Grade B and C malls leading to
higher foot falls, steady increase in consumption and hence, higher revenue share for PML
Below framework laid out key functions in mall management which is the key factor to attract footfalls in the malls and kick starting the virtuous i.e.
Better mall management → Higher footfalls → Higher consumption→ Attracting high quality Tenants/Brands→ Higher revenue share → Higher spend on mall management
Store Resizing
Good Anchors/FEC lead to Optimizing category mix leads to Strong brand mix leads to
Mall
Management
Increased Footfalls Increased Revenue Share Increase Rentals
Page 38
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Selection of Anchor tenants is of paramount importance as Anchors not only de-risks mall operators by occupying large area but also improve
overall footfalls and revenue for the mall; Changing Anchor tenants with changing consumer preferences is the key to maintain steady footfall rate
Approximately 45% of the mall space is occupied by Anchors (including Changing trends with mall anchors
multiplex)
▪ Malls used to allot large land parcel to anchors like Big Bazaar, Lifestyle. Now there is an
Approximated area split in a PHNX mall effort to reduce land allocated to these brands that have lower trading densities.
▪ Average size of store for anchor brands : 20,000-50,000 sq.ft. Fast fashion retail brands (Zara,
Anchors (Ex
Gucci, H&M) have stores that are typically under 20,000 sq.ft but have higher per sq.ft sales.
Inline Stores
Multiplex) ▪ Fall in tenures of anchor tenants over the years. Mall operators looking for flexibility in tenant
30%
35% mix.
▪ Revenue share for new age anchor tenants is ~20-30% higher than that of the past thus
F&B translating to better rental income for malls, and bridging the gap of rentals between anchors
Other FEC Multiplex and inline stores.
15%
10% 10%
2010-2015
12-15 years
5-6 years
Currently
F&B Brands
8-10 years
2-3 years
Page 39
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Category mix change aids in overall increase in consumption as well as revenue share for mall operators; Malls have replaced
Hypermarkets/Supermarkets space with Fast fashion and Personal care categories as Hypermarkets have low trading density and revenue share
Malls operators de-risk themselves by allocating higher space to anchors and supermarket
Category wise area leased and consumption contribution in mall at the start of mall and gradually churning to higher revenues share categories
Consumption
Category Area Occupied
Contribution More anchor stores,
Hypermarket/
Apparels 16% 24% Supermarket
Malls have allocated higher space to Apparel and Personal care whereas space for
Entertainment (Ex. Multiplex) 11% 8% Supermarkets and Electronics declined in last five years
Change in area
Multiplex 13% 7% Area allocated for categories 2014 2019
allocated
Hypermarkets/Supermarkets 21% 16%
Electronics 7% 5% Apparels 14% 16%
Multiplex 15% 13%
Footwear 4% 5% Entertainment (Ex. Multiplex) 7% 11%
F&B 7% 10%
Lifestyle 5% 4% Personal care 4% 8%
Electronics 10% 8%
Lifestyle 10% 7%
Others 4% 2%
Footwear 4% 4%
Accessories (Jewelry and watches) 6% 5%
Total 100% 100%
Others 2% 2%
Source: Industry, Spark Capital
Page 40
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
# Mall Management - Revenue Share and average trading density for various categories in mall; Personal care, footwear & accessories and apparels
are among the highest revenue contributor for a mall operator
Mall operators prefer to add categories which fall in the sweet spot of optimal revenue share & average trading density which provides the best rental potential
Category Name Sub-category Brands Revenue Share % Average Trading Density (psfpm)
Cosmetics Sephora, MAC, Health & Glow 10%-14% 1,200-2,500
Personal care Optics Vision Express, Titan Eye 12%-16% 1,200-2,500
Salon & Spa Forrest Essentials, Bath & Body Works 10%-16% 1,000-2,500
Leather bags & Accessories Hidesign, Aldo 10%-15% 1,750-2,200
Accessories (Jewelry and watches) Watches (SBOs/MBOs) Titan, Omega, Rado, Tissot, Ethos 5%-10% 1,800-4,000
Jewelry Tanishq, Reliance Jewels, Swarovski 2%-3% 5,000-8,500
Biba, Arvind, Soch, Indian Terrain,
National 8%-12% 900-1,500
Apparels Madura
International Gucci, Zara, H&M, Levis, Lee Cooper 10%-16% 1,200-2,200
Casual/Formal Bata, Hush Puppies, Aldo, Metro, Mochi 10%-12% 1,000-2,500
Footwear
Sports Adidas, Nike, Puma, Reebok 7%-10% 1,500-2,500
Arcade, bowling Amoeba, Blu-O 12.5%-20% 500-700
Entertainment (Ex. Multiplex)
Skating, cricket nets Smaaash, Fun City 15%-20% 500-700
QSR McDonald's, KFC, Dunkin Donuts 6%-10% 600-1,000
Page 41
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
# Mall Management – PML has focused on active mall management, by churning out & relocation of stores to maintain optimal category and brand
mix
Mall management strategies adopted by PML across various malls
Mall name Key steps taken by PML to increase footfalls and trading density in its malls
✓ Churn about 10% of space every year by closing contract with underperforming stores.
✓ Relocated designer labels to first floor for better visibility which led to improved overall fashion retail sales
✓ Placed “Zara” near the entry
HSP and Palladium mall
✓ For instance, PML replaced “Big Bazaar” with “H&M”. This led to doubling of average trading density for the same space allocated
before to hypermarket
✓ Refurbished existing PVR malls and offering multiple screens with recliners and in-house gourmet food offerings.
✓ Significant area was allocated to jewellery stores which has high average trading density but low margins for PML. Also, jewellery
PMC Chennai shoppers are unlikely to spend time for other categories. Hence, PML churned out lot of jewellery stores having low sales rate.
✓ Parking walls painted frequently to provide novel experience to shoppers.
✓ At the start of mall, departmental stores are generally allocated larger space and more often, they are one of the anchor tenants.
✓ As malls are matured, incremental space is given to high revenue share categories as department stores have lower trading density
PMC Pune and margin for mall operators
✓ One of the departmental store in Pune mall was resized by more than half, however overall rentals still doubled due to area allocated
to high trading density apparel categories.
Page 42
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
# Mixed Used Development - The PMC Kurla strategy of clubbing malls & office assets is being replicated across other PML malls, with almost
~2msf of office space to be added to complement the current mall spaces
PML plans to add office offering in all of its operational malls
Mall developers globally adopted mixed-use retail HSP & Palladium Phoenix House 0.2 22%
development strategy to drive footfalls in the core
mall asset. Paragon Plaza Key
Paragon Plaza,
PMC Mumbai 1.5 58% Tenants - Uber, Grofers,
The idea was to optimize the mall space to maintain Centrium, Art Guild
Xiaomi
footfalls & sweat the asset with other rental
generating options like an office space, or a for-sale
residential development.
Page 43
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Threat from existing and upcoming malls – Given lower supply of Grade-A malls, threat remains low-moderate for PML malls except PMC
Bangalore & Kurla
Threat Level post new mall
Mall Name Micromarket Noteworthy malls in 10-15 km radius Distance Operational Upcoming
additions
Page 44
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Threat from existing and upcoming malls – PMC Wakad is the only mall in North Pune, with access to a strong catchment
PMC Pune Viman Nagar Time Square Mall 5.1km Podeam - Panchshil Moderate
Esplanade
Signature Mall
Page 45
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Threat from existing and upcoming malls – Although Palladium Ahmedabad is a luxury offering, it is expected to face stiff competition from the
current (and upcoming) malls in the vicinity
Threat Level post new mall
Mall Name Micromarket Noteworthy malls in 10-15 km radius Distance Operational Upcoming
additions
PMC Lucknow Gomti Nagar Fun Republic Mall 4.7km Galaxy Mall Moderate
Wave Mall 5.0km
Page 46
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
# Return metrics ratio- As most of the PML malls have been operational for 10+ years, pre-tax return metrics have stabilized to over 15%
HSP is a cash cow for the company with pre-tax CROIC of over 30%, while there is significant scope of increase return metrics in United Lucknow & Bareilly, and PMC Mumbai
HSP & Palladium PMC Chennai PMC Bangalore PMC Pune United Lucknow PMC Mumbai United Bareilly
Trading Density (Rs.psfpm) 2,943 1,505 1,680 1,334 1,113 1,161 827
Rental Income (Rs.mn) 3,432 1,529 1,392 1,589 292 1,216 215
Invested Capital (Rs.mn) 8,208 6,378 5,494 6,596 1,267 10,939 1,371
Page 47
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Page 48
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Page 49
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Mall Business model- Mall business is very capital intensive and requires upfront capex resulting in high barriers to entry; Asset level return reaches cost of
capital by 8-9th year of operations; Effective mall management is the most important differentiator between Grade A and other malls
Page 50
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Top Mall Operators: Given the high barriers to entry and long gestation period characteristic of a mall, very few players have been able to attain reasonable scale
in this industry
Number of
malls
10 6 9 7 4 5
Gross
leasable 7.1 5.9 5.0 4.2 3.5 ~3.5
area (msf)
Page 51
GROWTH DRIVERS
Page 52
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Consumption proxy- A typical PML mall houses around ~175-200 domestic and international brands across various categories; PML has almost
equal proportion (Higher in Palladium mall concept) of international and domestic brands
We have analyzed brands/retailers housed in HSP & Palladium and PMC Pune ; Of total brands, HSP & Palladium and PMC malls have ~65% and 45% of international brands
Number of
Brand split at a typical PMC Categories Foreign Domestic
Brand split at HSP brands
Apparel 44% 56% 54
Footwear & accessories 40% 60% 43
Domesti F&B 31% 69% 26
c International
37% 43% Personal Care 56% 44% 16
Domesti
c Other (Sports, gifts ,books, toys) 57% 43% 13
International 57%
63% Electronics 67% 33% 6
Supermarket/Hypermarket 25% 75% 4
Home Decor 0% 100% 2
Source: Spark Capital
Infact, ~65% of brands housed in PMC Pune are private retailers; PML acts a good proxy to play consumption growth in unlisted space
Number of
Categories Listed Private
Listed-Private brand split at PMC brands
Apparel 59% 41% 54
Page 53
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
We have analysed brands in PMC Pune mall and split in 4 buckets below; While ~35% of the brands are in listed entities, rest are owned by private
companies. PML acts a good proxy to play growth in these private brands/retailers
International brands are growing the fastest in organized retail market in India; Of the total brands in PMC mall, Only 19% of international brands have JVs with Indian listed
partners
International Domestic
Watches &
Personal Care:
Accessories:
Footwear &
Footwear:
Accessories: PMC brands
profile
Listed
Apparel: Apparel:
Apparel/
19% 17% Entertainment:
Accessories :
Apparel: Apparel:
Page 54
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
# Gap between consumption and rental is much wider when HSP is excluded, thus providing good headroom for catch up of rentals for the other
malls
Gap between consumption and rental is much wider when HSP is excluded, thus
Rental trails consumption, with a slight catch up in the last three years
providing good headroom for catch up of rentals for the other malls
Aggregate rental & consumption trends Aggregate rental & consumption trends
300 267 450
388
249 400 357
250 229 318
214 350 295
195 300 266
200 233
159 208 250 205
271
150 187 200 244
171 213
158 150 186 196
137 159
100 100 100 100
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
Aggregate Consumption (Indexed) Aggregate Rental (Indexed) Consumption ex. HSP (Indexed) Rental ex. HSP (Indexed)
Source: Company, Spark Capital. Note – HSP and 4 MarketCity malls considered Source: Company, Spark Capital. Note – Four MarketCity malls considered
While rental growth has surpassed consumption growth for HSP/Palladium, rental growth lags consumption growth in all other PML malls
HSP and Palladium CAGR PMC Bangalore CAGR PMC Pune CAGR since PMC Mumbai CAGR since PMC Chennai CAGR since
since FY13 since FY13 FY13 FY13 FY13
11% 67%
12% 25% 22% 18% 25% 23% 70%
18%
10% 60% 53%
20% 18% 20%
15% 50%
8% 6% 15% 17% 15% 40%
6%
10% 17% 16% 10% 8% 30%
4%
20%
2% 5% 16% 5%
10%
0% 0% 16% 0% 0%
Consumption Rental Consumption Rental Consumption Rental Consumption Rental Consumption Rental
Page 55
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
# More than 50% of area is up for renewal over next 3 years for most of the malls; Rental renewals expected to be higher given increasing ATD
trends across malls
More than 50% of area is up for renewal over next 3 years for most of the malls; Rental renewals expected
Lease rental schedule for HSP & Palladium
to be higher given increasing ATD trends across malls
Cumulative lease renewals expected between FY20-22E HSP & Palladium Lease Rental Schedule
75%
69% 21%
70%
65% 63% 16%
60% 12%
55% 53%
49% 50%
50%
45%
40%
HSP & Palladium PMC Pune PMC Chennai PMC Mumbai PMC Bangalore FY20E FY21E FY22E
PMC Bangalore Lease Rental PMC Mumbai Lease Rental PMC Pune Lease Rental Schedule PMC Chennai Lease Rental
Schedule Schedule Schedule
38%
20% 31%
34% 19%
26%
24% 20%
11%
5% 5%
2%
FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E FY20E FY21E FY22E
Page 56
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
# Traditionally malls earned revenue through rents alone while in current scenario, malls base their rent with revenue share clause in agreement;
Revenue sharing provides higher optionality to mall operators and offer higher return with same risk profile
Most of Grade A malls operate on minimum guarantee and revenue share-whichever is higher
Previously Now
Sale Model Lease/License Model Lease/License Model
▪ Revenue from rents ▪ Base rent or percentage of sales, whichever is higher
▪ Lesser Risks ▪ Business partnerships between retailer & developer
▪ Shops sold to retailers/investors
▪ Medium term investment (low- ▪ Incentive to build a better product
▪ Short-term investment
risk/medium returns) ▪ Result oriented events and promotions
▪ Lack of discipline, maintenance &
▪ Some control over mix & therefore ▪ Better equipped to face competition
control over trade and tenant mix
the shopper ▪ Same risk profile but greatest returns
, high vacancy rates
▪ Some Ability/Flexibility & Incentive ▪ Occupier Outflow: Monthly minimum guarantee or a fixed % of
to improve sales, whichever is higher
Source: Spark Capital
Typically a mall operating on revenue sharing witness non-linear increase in profitability and return metrics when average trading density crosses Rs.1,500 psfpm
MG Rental (Rs. psfpm) Majority of retail lease agreements at PML pay higher of minimum
Renewal at
significantly guarantee (MG) rents and revenue share (% of consumption)
Rev Share Rental(Rs.psfpm)
higher rates
Trading Density (Rs psfpm))
Trading Density
Generally MG escalates by mid-double digits at the end of 3 years
Mid-teens from
and mid-to-high single digits annually in the interim
3rd year
Single digit
Rent
annual rent
escalation
Year
Page 57
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Potential for improvement in ATD (average trading density) in PMCs Pune & Mumbai, and the United Lucknow & Bareilly
Malls with ATD between Rs. 1,000 and 1,500 have good scope to improve ATDs and
Relationship between ATD and rental as a % of consumption
rents
20% 18-20% FY19 Rental as a % of
16-18% Mall Name FY19 ATD (Rs.psfpm)
Rental as a % of consumption
18% consumption
16% 13-15%
14% 11-12%
12% HSP & Palladium 2,943 18%
10% 8-10%
8%
6%
4%
2% PMC Bangalore 1,680 11%
0%
800-1,200 1,200-1,500 1,500-2,000 2,000-2,500 Greater than
2,500
Average Trading Density (Rs. psfpm)
PMC Chennai 1,505 14%
Source: Company, Spark Capital Potential for
improvement
in ATD
PMC Pune 1,334 13%
Potential for improvement in ATD in PMCs Pune & Mumbai, and the United malls
✓ Given rentals paid by tenants in a mall is higher of minimum guarantee and revenue
share, mall operators focus on increasing overall consumption and average trading
density (ATD). PMC Mumbai 1,161 13%
✓ As shown in above chart, rental as percentage of consumption is highest when ATDs are
higher than Rs.2,000 and lowest below Rs.1,000.
✓ Once the mall operator scales up ATD to Rs.1,200, retailer starts making a reasonable
profit and is able to absorb the occupancy cost United Lucknow 1,113 9%
✓ In current PML portfolio, there is a significant scope to increase ATD in Pune, Mumbai and
united malls
✓ With increasing ATD, mall level return metrics also improve non-linearly owing to
United Bareilly 827 11%
significant rental re-pricing power for mall operator.
Page 58
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
PMC Bangalore saw a non-linear improvement in pre-tax ROIC from 9% to 21% when the ATDs doubled from Rs.745; HSP at ATD of around Rs.3,000
has pre-tax ROIC of almost 28%
Non-linear increase in return metrics with increase in ATD
Trading Density (Rs.psfpm) 745 1,131 1,694 Trading Density (Rs.psfpm) 2,020 2,943
Rental Income (Rs.mn) 603 876 1,275 Rental Income (Rs.mn) 1,824 3,432
Invested Capital (Rs.mn) 5,063 5,191 5,430 Invested Capital (Rs.mn) 6,600 8,208
Source: Company, Spark Capital Note: Pre-Tax CROIC is calculated using EBITDA as proxy for cash flows, and invested capital
Page 59
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
PML Growth Plans- Addition of one mall each year till FY24E, Addition of malls in exiting cities and entry in newer Tier-2 cities to drive growth
Growth drivers for PML are increase in trading density in existing malls and addition of new malls; PML has plans to add additional malls in cities such as Bangalore and Pune
where both population and per capita income is high versus other cities
Growth Drivers New malls in existing Tier-1 markets Entry into new Tier-1 markets New malls in Tier-2 markets
Delhi-NCR 1 ▪ No exposure to this market. Can explore opportunities in Gurugram, New Delhi. Has the highest retail stock in India.
▪ PML has 2 malls - PMC Kurla & HSP/Palladium. One of the highest per capita income. PML can explore opportunities in Thane & Vashi
Mumbai 2
(Navi Mumbai).
▪ PML has 1 mall (PMC Whitefield) and is in the process of setting up of another mall (PMC Hebbal). Do not expect more PML malls in the
Bangalore 3
near term.
▪ PML has 2 malls - PMC Chennai & Palladium. Has the lowest vacancy rate among Tier-1 cities. PML can explore opportunities in west
Chennai 4
Chennai.
Hyderabad 5 ▪ No exposure to this market. Strong growth potential owing to increasing white collar tech jobs and lack of quality retail supply.
▪ PML has 1 mall (PMC Viman Nagar) and is in the process of setting up of another mall (PMC Wakad). Do not expect more PML malls in
Pune 6
the near term.
Page 60
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Total Capex
PMC Wakad : Mall Location Dynamics
Rs.13.0bn ✓ Land size : 15 acres; Acquired for Rs. 2.4bn
✓ Current mall in Viman Nagar (around 22km from proposed Wakad mall) serves the
CBD of Kharadi and surrounding residential areas of Kalyani Nagar, Boat Club,
Koregaon Park and neighboring towns such as Ahmednagar, and has a dense mid-
high income range catchment
✓ Commercial areas such as Hinjewadi, Baner and Aundh; Residential areas such as
Wakad, Baner, Aundh, Balewadi extending up to Kothrud in South West of Pune
✓ Strong Commercial catchment of 25 mn sft in Hinjewadi (19 msf and expanding) and
Aundh / Baner (6 msf and expanding)
PMC Whitefield
PMC Wakad
Page 61
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
PML plans to expand its presence into Tier-2 cities over the next five years; 30% of leased area will be in Tier-2 cities by FY25E
Phoenix retail exposure shifting in favor of Tier 2 cities. By FY25E, ~30% of total leasable area will be in Tier 2 cities with PHNX adding another mall in Lucknow, and entering
the Ahmedabad & Indore markets.
Phoenix Retail Area Split - Current Phoenix Retail Area Split (msf) - FY25E
Phoenix plans to move into Tier 2 cities like Ahmedabad (Palladium)
& Indore (Phoenix MarketCity), and to add a 2nd mall (Phoenix
Tier 2
11%
MarketCity) in Lucknow, thus taking overall Tier 2 area from 0.6msf
Tier 2
30% currently to 3.2msf by FY25.
Total Area
Incremental growth is expected from increasing Tier 2 exposure.
Total Area
5.9msf 10.8msf
PML upcoming malls in Tier-2 cities Total rental currently from Tier 2 vs potential rental by FY25
Mall Name City Area (msf) Status Rental Income from Tier-2 cities (Rs.mn)
Page 62
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
PML’s upcoming malls in Tier-2 cities- Indore and Ahmedabad are the new markets where PML has already planned malls
PML adds one additional mall in Lucknow and enters in Indore and Ahmedabad by FY24E; Currently PML has presence in Lucknow and Bareilly
Growth Drivers New malls in existing Tier-1 markets Entry into new Tier-1 markets New malls in Tier-2 markets
▪ Phoenix has a smaller mall in Lucknow (United ▪ With the 50:50 JV with BSafal group, PHNX will enter
▪ Indore is the commercial hub in Madhya Pradesh.
~0.3msf) and will add a big mall 3x the size of united the Ahmedabad market with its premium store brand
mall. ▪ Low mall penetration in the city. City does not have – “Palladium”.
any large format retail stores.
▪ Project located near the International Cricket Stadium ▪ This will be the third malls in Palladium series after
and touted to be a strong growth corridor. ▪ PMC Indore will be the largest mall in the city post launch in Mumbai and Chennai.
commencement.
▪ IT City is about 5KM from the mall. ▪ Located on SG Highway road which is commercial and
▪ Located on Mumbai-Agra national highway. Most of upcoming growth hub in the city.
▪ Recently LULU has started mall with same leasable
the civil construction is already completed.
area. ▪ This will be the first high end mall in the city.
Page 63
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Our assumptions for retail segment: We expect overall rentals to grow at a 15% CAGR over next five years led by an 8-10% rental growth in
existing assets, and ramp up from new malls
Mall leasable area to increase from 5.9msf to almost 11.7msf post current leg of
Expect mall rentals to double from current levels by FY25E
expansion.
Mall Status FY19 FY22E FY25E 13.0
11.4 11.7
HSP & Palladium (increase in 12.0
Operational 3,432 4,179 7,893 11.0
area in FY25E)
10.0 HSP
PMC Bangalore Operational 1,392 1,715 2,708 9.0 8.6
7.9 PMC Wakad
8.0
PMC Pune Operational 1,589 2,122 2,700 6.9 6.9 PMC Hebbal
7.0 Palladium
5.9 Ahmedabad
6.0
PMC Chennai Operational 1,529 1,860 2,215 PMC
5.0 PMC Indore
Lucknow
PMC Mumbai Operational 1,216 1,522 1,903 4.0
FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY25E
Palladium, Chennai Operational 248 329 378 Total Leasable Area (msf)
Source: Spark Capital
United Lucknow Operational 292 350 418
United Bareilly Operational 215 258 308 Total lease rentals (and PML stake lease rent) to grow at a ~15% CAGR between
FY19-25E
PMC Indore Upcoming - 742 1,216
25.0 23.7
Page 64
OTHER SEGMENTS
Page 65
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Office Portfolio: PML currently has five operational offices in Mumbai and Pune with total leased area of 1.4msf and rentals of ~Rs.1.4bn
Office name Art Guild House Centrium Phoenix House Phoenix Paragon Plaza Fountainhead Tower 1
Total leasable area in msf 0.80 (Sold 0.60 msf) 0.28 (Sold 0.16 msf) 0.20 0.42 (Sold 0.12 msf) 0.17
PML Office
Portfolio
Page 66
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Gross leasable area (excluding sold out area) in the commercial segment will touch 5.5msf by FY25E – 4x of current GLA
PML has plans to add office space in each of its upcoming malls
Gross leasable area (excluding sold out area) in the commercial segment will touch 5.5msf by FY25E – 4x of current GLA
6.0
Commercial space addition schedule (msf) HSP
PMC Wakad
5.0 PMC Hebbal
PMC Whitefield 5.5
4.0 The Crest
3.0 1.6
Fountainhead T2-T3
2.0 0.4
0.6
1.0
1.4
0.0
FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY25E
Source: Spark Capital
Page 67
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
All of the PML’s offices are nearby or within existing malls as Offices act as an enabler in attracting footfalls to malls; Expect rentals from offices to
increase to Rs.2bn by FY22E led by increasing occupancy at existing properties and start of new towers in Fountainhead, Pune and PMC, Chennai
PML has plans to treble its office space over next five years increasing total
Rentals expected to grow ~5x by FY25E from Rs.1.2bn in FY19
leasable area to ~6msf
Total 7,000
Total Capex Tentative
Office name Status leasable 6,000
(Rs.bn) start year
area (msf)
5,000
4,000 ~25-30% CAGR
Fountainhead Towers 2 & Under 3,000
0.6 2.1 FY21E
3 (Pune) construction 2,000
1,000
1,215 1,384 1,806 2,046 2,531 3,809 5,919
Under -
PMC (Chennai) 0.4 1.6 FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY25E
construction
Office Rental (Rs.mn) (inc. HSP office)
HSP (Lower Parel, Under Source: Spark Capital Note: We have assumed HSP & Wakad to be operational by FY25E; yet to be guided by
1.1 4.4 FY24E company
Mumbai) planning
Under ✓ As a result, commercial segment gross leasable area by FY25E will be 5.5msf- 4x of
PMC (Hebbal, Bangalore) 0.6 2.2 FY24E
planning current GLA and rental income will increase to Rs.6bn.
✓ Office portfolio rentals will contribute 12-13% to overall PML revenue in FY25E.
Total 4.2 14.3
Page 68
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
PML’s Residential Portfolio: Projects in Bangalore and Chennai and mainly in Ultra-Luxury and Luxury segments
PML’s residential project details: PML has launched three projects in Bangalore and PML’s residential project details: PML has two residential projects in Bangalore and
Chennai so far one in Chennai
One Bangalore
Project name Kessaku The Crest Total
West
Crest ventures
Other stakeholders NA NA
Ltd
Balance area to be
0.72 0.47 NA 1.19
launched (msf)
The Crest
Luxury Ultra- luxury Luxury Velachery, Chennai
Segment
(2-4 BHK) (4-6 BHK) (3-5 BHK)
Page 69
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Supply-demand dynamics of NW Bangalore micromarket; While the region has seen decline in inventory in FY19, OBW/Kessaku sales rate has
remained subdued because of the ultra-luxury nature of the project.
Steady demand market with a decline in inventory seen in FY19; Demand recovered in FY19 after subdued performance between FY16-18
10.0 16.0
9.0 14.0
8.0 13.3
12.7 12.8 12.3
11.9 12.0
7.0
10.5 10.0
6.0 9.3
5.0 8.0
4.0 6.2 6.0
3.0
4.0
2.0 2.9 3.3
1.0 2.0
2.4 2.4 3.2 2.8 7.1 4.2 7.7 4.5 9.2 5.9 5.6 5.5 5.0 4.5 2.1 3.5 1.1 2.5 6.9 5.1
- -
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
New Launches (000's units) Absorption (000's units) Inventory (000's units)
Increase in demand in FY19 has led to a sharp fall in inventory years to a OBW & Kessaku are present within the Rajajinagar area, an affluent neighborhood
comfortable 2.3 years at the end of FY19 in NW Bangalore.
Inventory Years Micromarket Current average price (Rs.psf)
5.0
4.5
4.5
Dollars Colony 10,477
4.0
3.6
3.5
2.9 Malleshwaram 12,104
3.0
2.5 2.3 2.3
Rajajinagar 12,532
1.9
2.0 1.7
1.5 1.2 1.1 1.1 Phoenix OBW & Kessaku FY19 average 14,442
1.0
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 Bangalore average 5,500-7,000
Page 70
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
PML residential segment: PML has already sold 80% of its residential portfolio and has about 1.7msf of unsold inventory (including area not
opened for sale)
PML has already launched towers 1-6 (0.7msf) in OBW; Tower 7 was launched in FY20 whereas towers 8-9 are expected to be launched post FY22E. Kessaku & The Crest are
100% completed projects.
Inventory in area Total inventory
Area opened for Area not opened Cumulative Area Booking value Collections Collections as % Receivables
opened for including area not
As of FY19 booking (msf) (msf) sold (msf) (Rs.mn) (Rs.mn) of booking value (Rs.mn)
booking (msf) opened (msf)
One Bangalore West 1.5 0.7 1.3 0.2 0.9 13,070 12,190 93% 880
Kessaku 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.7 4,388 2,692 61% 1,696
Total 2.5 1.2 2.0 0.5 1.7 21,284 18,708 88% 2,576
Page 71
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Our assumption for PML residential segment- While we factor in slower sales rate due to luxury nature of projects, cash outflow in this segment
will be minimal
As sales rate has been quite subdued for PML projects due to luxury nature of projects, we expect projects (including area not opened for booking) to get sold out by FY26E.
Nonetheless, we expect potential pre-tax net cash operating cash flow of Rs.25bn accruing over next 10 years as PML has incurred the majority of construction costs
Total Inventory in
msf (launched area Potential collections Cost to incur to Pre-tax net operating Our assumptions for the Residential
In Rs.mn Receivables Total collections segment:
and area to be from inventory complete full project cash flows
opened for booking)
▪ Given luxury nature of projects, we
expect the sales rate to be slower.
▪ PML took more than 7 years to sell
One Bangalore 80% of launched inventory in One
0.9 15,892 880 16,772 5,158 11,614
West Bangalore West.
▪ Majority of the construction cost is
already incurred for all the projects.
▪ PML has sold 2.0msf with booking
value of Rs.21bn so far. We factor
sales of 1.7msf (unsold inventory
Kessaku 0.7 11,535 1,696 13,231 718 12,512 and area not opened for booking) to
be sold by FY28E.
▪ Assuming price appreciation, we
expect PML to post booking value of
Rs.28-30bn from this 1.7msf
inventory.
▪ OBW: Expect the unsold inventory
The Crest 0.1 752 - 752 - 752 to be completely sold by FY26E
▪ Kessaku: No significant cash
outflow as project is fully complete;
Inventory expected to be sold out
by FY26E
▪ The Crest: No significant cash
outflow as project is fully complete;
Total 1.7 28,178 2,576 30,754 5,876 24,878 Inventory expected to be sold out
by FY23E
Page 72
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Hotel Portfolio: PML currently has two marquee five star hotel properties in Mumbai and Agra
Details of PML’s hotel properties Occupancy at St.Regis expected to touch ~90% by FY22E
St.Regis Occupancy %
Hotel name St. Regis Courtyard Marriot
90% 89%
88% 86%
Location Mumbai (Lower Parel) Agra 86%
84% 83%
82% 80%
Pallazzio Hotels &
SPV name Palladium Constructions 80%
Leisure 78% 76%
76%
PML Stake 73% 100% 74% 72%
72%
70%
ABIPL (Avinash Bhosale FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
Other stakeholders NA
Infrastructure pvt ltd)
Source: Spark Capital
Launch year Nov, 2012 Feb, 2015 While occupancy levels at the Courtyard (Agra) will hover around the 74-76% range
for the next 3 years
60% 57%
Average room rental in Rs. 14,000-18,000 5,000-7,000
55%
50%
FY19 Revenue including F&B 3,043 370 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
Page 73
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
St. Regis- One of the marquee properties in South Mumbai, this hotel has one of the highest ARRs (average room rental) in all of South Mumbai
St.Regis IRRs have grown at an 8% CAGR over the last 3 years. Given high IRRs
Top hotels in South Mumbai with average rent
currently, we factor in ARR growth of 3% between FY19-22E
4,000 13,500
12,963 13,000
3,500 12,555 12,500
12,159 12,000
3,000 11,776
11,405 11,500
2,500
11,000 Sofitel BKC
10,443 10,500 Rs.10,000-10,500
2,000 10,000
9,500 JW Marriott, Juhu
2,520 2,790 3,043 3,281 3,529 3,794 Rs.14,000-14,300
1,500 9,000 ITC Grand Central
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E Rs. 16,500-17,000
While margins are expected to remain flat at around ~40% till FY22E
1,800 41%
41% 41% 41% 41% St.Regis Mumbai
1,600 40%
1,400 Rs.14,750-15,000
39%
1,200 Four Season Hotel
38% 38%
1,000 Rs.14,000-14,300
37% The Oberoi,
800
36% 36% Nariman Point
600
400 35% Rs.16,000-16,300
200 34%
907 1,055 1,234 1,331 1,431 1,538 Taj Mahal Palace
- 33%
Rs.24,000-24,500
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
Page 74
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Courtyard Marriot – Subdued ARR and return ratios in this property given competition from other 5-star properties. PML has capital employed of
~Rs.2.0bn in this property which generates EBITDA of ~Rs.0.4bn
Subdued ARR growth in this property due to high quality supply in the vicinity Top hotels in Agra with average rent
500 4,400
4,336
4,300
450
4,214 4,200
400 4,109 4,100
4,007 4,000 Radisson Hotel, Agra
350 Rs. 6,600-6,700
3,908 3,900
300 3,811 3,800
3,700 The Oberoi
250 Amarvillas
323 360 370 394 424 455 3,600
Rs. 40,000+
200 3,500
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
Page 75
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Consolidated Financials: Expect revenue and PAT CAGR of 11% and 14% respectively over FY21-22E
We expect revenue growth of ~11-12% for the next 2-3 years largely led by start of
Expect EBITDA margin to remain around 50%
PMCs Lucknow & Indore, Fountainhead T2-T3, and revenue ramp-up at Palladium
28.0 25% 15.0 52%
22% 14.0 51%
26.0 20% 51%
24.0 13.0 51%
15% 50% 50%
22.0 12% 12.0 50%
10% 9% 10% 11.0 50% 50%
20.0
5% 10.0 49%
18.0
0% 9.0 49%
16.0 8.0 48% 48%
14.0 -5%
-11% 7.0 48%
12.0 -10% 6.0 47%
16.2 19.8 21.9 23.9 26.7 7.8 9.9 10.9 12.0 13.6
10.0 -15% 5.0 47%
FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E
PAT margins to decline to sub-20% levels due to higher depreciation and interest
We do not expect dividend to increase materially given ongoing capex
costs owing to new assets
Page 76
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Balance Sheet: Despite Rs.35bn of impending capex over the next four years, net debt will increase by ~Rs.6bn and peak out in FY22E; Expect de-
leveraging to start FY23E onwards
Considering ongoing capex, expect next debt to peak out in FY23E and de-leveraging to
Current segment-wise debt position; Retail debt contributes ~80% to overall debt
follow
Status Asset Class Amount (Rs.mn) % Net Debt (Rs.bn)
Retail 32,484 78% 47.0
Hospitality 5,398 13% 45.0
Operational
Commercial 2,574 6% 43.0
Leverage ratios to remain at higher level over the next two years Return metrics to remain in the ~10-11% range due to ongoing capex
6.0 17%
15%
5.0 5.0 15%
13% 13%
4.0 3.8 4.0 13%
3.6 11%
3.2 10% 10% 11%
3.0 11% 10% 10%
2.6 9% 9%
9% 9%
2.0 9%
1.8 7%
1.4
1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 7%
0.8 0.6
- 5%
FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E FY24E
Net Debt to Equity (x) Net Debt to EBITDA (x) RoE % RoCE %
Page 77
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Cash flows from operations excluding interest expense, will treble by FY24E. PML can add 1-2msf of retail/commercial space each via internal
accruals
While OCF is expected to increase to Rs.12bn by FY22E, FCF to remain negative due
WC days to reduce given liquidation of residential portfolio
to ongoing capex
14.0
12.0 Internal Accruals to aid in growth from FY23-24E
10.0
8.0
✓ Given significant increase in GLA in both retail and offices, we expect PML’s cash
flow from operation post interest expense to increase to ~Rs.12bn by FY24E from
6.0
~Rs.4bn in FY20E.
4.0
2.0 ✓ Currently 1msf mall space including land cost around Rs.6-7bn in Tier-1 cities, we
4.5 7.8 7.8 11.3 12.5 believe PML can add a mall with GLA of 1-2msf each year via internal accruals.
-
FY20E FY21E FY22E FY23E FY24E
Page 78
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
PML currently trades at implied cap rate of 10% (for rental assets); We value rental assets at 9% considering growth over next few years and arriv
at a target price of Rs.880/share
SoTP Valuation – Growth in rentals in existing annuity assets contributes 80% to
Valuations methodology for segments
overall valuations
Existing 8,305 52 6%
Discounted after tax cash flows from all three residential projects at
Residential
Commercial WACC of 12%
Upcoming 12,869 81 9%
PML trades at 10% cap rate at current enterprise value
Hotel NA 17,450 109 12%
Implied cap rate calculation Rs.bn
Net debt (PML Debt pertaining to land for upcoming retail and commercial asset in PPE 15
34,596 217 -25%
share) Enterprise value for retail and commercial assets as of FY22E 93
FY22E post-tax annuity income 9
Net NAV 140,231 880 100%
Implied cap rate for existing rental asset % 9.8%
Page 79
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Valuations: Stock is trading around its +1 standard deviation to its 7 year average valuations
One year forward price to book trend One year forward P/B(x) and RoE chart
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Dec-14
Jun-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Dec-17
Jun-18
Dec-18
Jun-19
Dec-19
Sep-13
Sep-14
Sep-15
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
Sep-19
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Mar-17
Mar-18
Mar-19
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Dec-14
Jun-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Dec-17
Jun-18
Dec-18
Jun-19
Dec-19
Sep-13
Sep-14
Sep-15
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
Sep-19
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Mar-17
Mar-18
Mar-19
12MF P/B(x) Average +1SD -1SD RoE % 12MF P/B(x)
15.0
14.0 14.2
13.0 We initiate coverage with a BUY rating with a TP of Rs. 880/share based on SoTP.
12.5 Existing operational assets (malls/offices/hotels/residential) form 75% of our total
12.0
11.0 GNAV, and therefore provides comfort to our valuations. Further implied cap rate
10.0 10.4 for its rental business works out to ~10% at CMP, which is attractive compared to
9.0 listed global REITS which trade in the range of 3-4%. Given its high-quality assets,
8.0 8.4 strong cash generation potential, and growth visibility, we expect cap rates to
7.0 compress post commencement of new assets. We are building in cap rate of 9%
6.0 for its rental portfolio.
Dec-12
Jun-13
Dec-13
Jun-14
Dec-14
Jun-15
Dec-15
Jun-16
Dec-16
Jun-17
Dec-17
Jun-18
Dec-18
Jun-19
Dec-19
Sep-13
Sep-14
Sep-15
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
Sep-19
Mar-13
Mar-14
Mar-15
Mar-16
Mar-17
Mar-18
Mar-19
Page 80
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
International Peer Comparison- Most of the international peers trade at 3-4% implied cap rate
Rental Income
Revenue Growth % EBITDA Growth % P/B (x) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Market Cap (in million) Implied Cap GLA
Company/REIT Currency
(in million) Rate % (msf)
Last 3Y Last 3Y
Last 3Y Next 2Y Last 3Y Next 2Y 2019 2020 2019 2020 2019 2020
Average CAGR %
AREIT SGD 10,507 6% 4% 9% 4% 705 9% 1.3 1.3 19.1 18.0 22.1 21.4 3.5% 3
Capitaland SGD 18,506 3% 12% 16% 22% 4,319 3% 0.8 0.8 13.6 15.3 17.9 12.9 4.2% 16
Link REIT HKD 165,854 5% 8% -25% 8% 8,543 9% 1.0 0.9 32.9 30.0 28.1 25.9 4.2% 13
Federal Investment
USD 9,701 6% 9% 6% 6% 813 7% 3.6 3.3 36.1 34.6 20.8 20.6 4.7% 24
Trust
Klepierre EUR 9,945 -2% 3% -16% 3% 1,228 1% 0.9 1.0 10.8 10.8 18.3 18.2 5.6% 6
Regency Center
USD 10,362 22% 4% 27% 2% 796 26% 1.7 1.7 43.2 39.7 20.0 17.6 5.6% 54
Corporation
Simon Property
USD 44,674 1% 1% 2% 3% 5,022 3% 21.1 30.1 21.9 21.0 17.9 NA 6.1% 191
Group
Intu Property GBP 456 0% -5% -1% -6% 491 -11% 0.2 0.3 7.0 6.6 14.9 15.2 7.2%
Page 81
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Page 82
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Page 83
INITIATING COVERAGE – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Revenues CAGR 90% -1% 11% RoE (%) 6% 8% 11% 1,88,392 1,200
TOTAL
Entry = Rs.770 @ 2.6x Cumulative Dividends of Based on FY23E SOTP RETURN OF
FY21E BPS Rs.10/share Valuations 56%
Page 84
Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
Spark Disclaimer
Spark Disclaimer
Spark Capital Advisors (India) Private Limited (Spark Capital) and its affiliates are engaged in investment banking, investment advisory and institutional equities. Spark Capital is registered with SEBI as a Stock Broker, corporate
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Spark Capital has two wholly owned subsidiaries (1) Spark Family Office and Investment Advisors (India) Private Limited which is engaged in the services of providing investment advisory services and is registered with SEBI as
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entity and became subsidiary with effect from August 01, 2018. Spark Capital also has an associate company Spark Infra Advisors (India) Private Limited which is engaged in the business of providing infrastructure advisory
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Initiating Coverage – Phoenix Mills | BUY | TP – Rs.880
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BUY Stock expected to provide positive returns of >15% over a 1-year horizon REDUCE Stock expected to provide returns of <5% – -10% over a 1-year horizon
Absolute Rating
Interpretation
ADD Stock expected to provide positive returns of >5% – <15% over a 1-year horizon SELL Stock expected to fall >10% over a 1-year horizon
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