CIGRE SC-C6 (COLL 2005)….
IWD
Electrification: Uncertainties, Models and Design Procedures
Ron Herman, University of Cape Town. rherman@ebe.uct.ac.za
C T Gaunt, University of Cape Town, South Africa. ctg@ebe.uct.ac.za
1. INTRODUCTION
Electrification is considered by many to be a
measure of the development of a country. The
benefits are obvious stimuli for growth.
Electrification therefore is an essential component in
the development of a country such as South Africa.
Since the electrification drive was initiated some 15
years ago, there has been a challenge to engineers to
produce appropriate and cost-effective
electrification networks. These challenges are made
more severe by financial, technical and political
constraints imposed on the planners. Certain actions
and procedures were put into place in South Africa
that significantly helped to meet these goals.
2. UNCERTAINTIES
The electrification of relatively large groups of
households in distant areas is often dominated by
uncertainties that affect the accuracy of the network
designs. Various demographic characteristics of the
potential customers will influence the sizes and the
usage patterns of the electricity demand. Planners
need to know which demographic parameters have
the greatest effect on the customer load. They then
need to correlate these data with the target
community. A Load Research Project to gather
typical data in South Africa was commenced in
1994 based on research by Herman and Gaunt [1].
The parameters that have the greatest effect on
household demand are:
a. Income
b. Provision of piped water
c. Circuit breaker limitation
d. Floor area
e. Number of occupants
f. Community habits
g. Climate
h. Distance from city centres
Uncertainty may also be a problem in other areas
such as in control of construction, illegal
connections and growth of the community.
Research has shown that uncertainty in the
specification of design loads has the most significant
impact design of electrification networks [2]. The
NRS Load Research Project in South Africa was
initiated to address the uncertainty relating to design
loads, but these have different effects according to
the type of network supplying the loads.
3. MODELS
The planning and design of electrification networks
are most effectively expedited when appropriate and
accurate models of the circuits and the loads are
Contributors: R Herman
Topic: E3
available. Given the chosen technology, the electric
circuit parameters are generally well known. The
current technologies used for LV distribution
networks in South Africa are: (a) three-phase four-
conductor, (b) dual-phase and (c) single-phase
networks. As mentioned the major source of
uncertainty is in the specification of the predicted
design loads. The development of a sound statistical
data base of residential loads requires the
synchronised measurement of individual customer
loads at intervals commensurate with the type of
application.
These data have to be matched by relevant
demographic surveys. Three electrical models are
commonly used for describing electrical loads: (a)
constant power, (b) constant impedance and (c)
constant current. After due consideration of the
different appliance types likely to constitute the bulk
of the residential sector, the constant current model
was adopted in South Africa. The residential sector
has been divided into eight classes and load data was
collected over several years in sites typical to each
class. For this purpose stand-alone data loggers
were developed that would synchronously record the
average individual customer load current at 5 minute
intervals over a complete year. From these data the
contribution of each measured customer at the
interval corresponding to the maximum demand of
the total group may be extracted. These
contributions may be represented in the form of a
histogram from which the statistical parameters such
as mean and variance may be determined.
The results of these load surveys suggested that the
probability density distribution of load current at the
interval of maximum demand was not symmetrical
about the mean, but could be skewed. Further
research [3] showed that the Beta pdf was the most
appropriate for describing the shape of this
distribution of currents. The Beta pdf has parameters
a, b and is supported on a positive base value, C.
Since an individual customer cannot draw a current
greater than the circuit breaker rating, Cb, the value
of C may be set to Cb or a higher value.
The following table shows the load parameters for
the different classes of customer [4]. The most
significant demographic parameter affecting the
customer’s maximum demand was found to be
income.
1
 Table 1: Extraction from NRS034-1: Amendment 2
(Dec 2000)
Load Parameters - 7 yrs Load Parameters – 15
yrs
Consumer AMPS Income Range a b c ADMD a b c ADMD
Class LSM [R]/month [A] kVA [A] kVA
Rural LSM1 0 - 600 0.30 2.98 20.00 0.42 0.35 2.88 20.00 0.50
Settlement (low)
Rural Village LSM 1&2 400 – 900 0.43 2.52 20.00 0.67 0.48 2.13 20.00 0.85
Informal LSM 3&4 800 – 0.77 9.88 60.00 1.00 0.91 8.80 60.00 1.29
Settlement 1500
Township area LSM 5&6 1500 - 3000 1.05 7.81 60.00 1.64 1.22 5.86 60.00 2.38
Urban LSM 7 3000 - 5500 1.23 5.56 60.00 2.50 1.25 3.55 60.00 3.59
residential I
Urban LSM 7&8 5500 - 8500 1.45 6.07 80.00 3.54 1.42 4.10 80.00 4.73
residential II
Urban LSM 8 8500 - 12000 1.45 5.75 80.00 3.70 1.42 4.13 80.00 4.71
townhouses
Urban Multi- LSM 8 12000 - 24000 1.43 4.41 80.00 4.50 1.37 3.39 80.00 5.30
storey (high)

Instead of using deterministic (mean) values

together with a variety of empirical factors in the
design calculations, it is now possible to include the
parameters of the probability distribution of the
loads directly in the design.
4. DESIGN PROCEDURES
A probabilistic design algorithm using the Beta pdf
for load currents was developed by Herman and
further enhanced by Heunis [5,6,7]. This design
procedure was independently compared with other
methods used in South Africa at the time and found
to be superior [8]. It was then adopted as the
prescribed design method in the electricity supply
industry in South Africa [4,9].
5. CONCLUSION
It is important to note that load characteristics tend
to be regional and it is unwise to interchange load
parameters between countries, particularly when
comparing developed and developing countries.
Notwithstanding these limitations, it is feasible to
follow similar procedures in countries outside of
South Africa.
While the Electricity Supply Industry has embraced
the enhanced electrification design process, not all
the participating parties are willing to depart from
older methods. The compilation and publication of
the NRS 034 document, while not prescriptive,
encourages standardization. A set of benchmark
results of voltage drop calculations using the
Herman-Beta method were published [10]. In some
regions within Eskom, consultants are requested to
complete a small sample design with their tenders
to ensure that the probabilistic methods will be used
correctly.
6. REFERENCES
[1] R Herman & C T Gaunt, "Measurement and
representation of maximum demand for individual and
grouped domestic consumers including constraints",
CIRED, April 1991, Liege.
[2] C G Carter-Brown, C T Gaunt & R Herman
Sensitivity studies on parameter uncertainties in
distribution network performance, UPEC2005, Sept,
Cork.
[3] R. Herman & J.J. Kritzinger, "The statistical
description of grouped domestic electrical load currents",
Electric Power Systems Research, 27 (1993) 43 – 48.
[4] NRS 034-1:1999 Electricity distribution –
Guidelines for the provision of electrical
distributionnetworks in residential areas, SANS
[5] R. Herman, J.S. Maritz & J.H.R Enslin, "The analysis
of voltage regulation using the beta distribution model",
Electric Power Systems Research, 29 (1994) 213 – 216.
[6] R. Herman & J.S. Maritz, “Voltage regulation
algorithm for a bi-phase distribution system feeding
residential customers using a Beta p.d.f load model”,
Electric Power Systems Research, 43 (2) (1997) pp 77 –
80.
[7] R. Herman & S.W. Heunis “A General Probabilistic
Voltage Drop Calculation Method for L.V. Distribution
networks based on a Beta p.d.f. Load Model”, Electric
Power Systems Research, 46 (1) (1998) pp 45 - 49.
[8] R L Sellick & C T Gaunt “Comparing methods of
calculating voltage drop in low voltage feeders”, Trans
SAIEE, Sept, 1995.
[9] I Ferguson & C T Gaunt “LV network sizing in
electrification projects – replacing a deterministic method
with a probabilistic method”, CIRED, Barcelona, 2003.
[10] R. Herman, C.T Gaunt & S.W. Heunis, “Benchmark
tests and results for the evaluation of LV distribution
voltage drop calculation procedures”, Transactions
SAIEE, Vol 90 (2) (1999) pp 54 - 60