Steve Atherton (Colliers International Indonesia) PDF

Colliers International Indonesia
Opportunities and Performance for Retail & Mixed Use Development in Indonesia
Steve Atherton, Director - Investment Services
Indonesia
The 4th most populous nation in the world
1 2 3 5
4
Indonesia
China 1.3 b India 1.2 b US 311 m 250 m Brazil 196 m
2
Jabodetabek
DKI Jakarta & BoDeTaBek
DKI Jakarta & Greater Jakarta
Jakarta
Population:
10.2 million
Size:
Jakarta 662.3 sq km
Tangerang Bekasi
Greater
Jakarta*
Depok Population:
27.9 million
Size:
6,396.4 sq km
Jakarta Bogor
(*) Second most populous urban area in

the world (Wikipedia)
3
Indonesia Economic Growth
*An outlook by McKinsey & Company
4
Demography Profile AGE GROUP
Fact of Indonesia
85+
80 - 74
75 - 79
70 - 74
65 - 69
60 - 64
55 - 59
50 - 54
45 - 49
40 - 44
35 - 39
30 - 34
25 - 29
20 - 24
15 - 19
10 - 14
5-9
0-4
NUMBER OF PEOPLE 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000
females males
85+ 85+
85+ 80 - 74 80 - 74
80 - 74 75 - 79 75 - 79
75 - 79 70 - 74 70 - 74
70 - 74 65 - 69 65 - 69
65 - 69 60 - 64 60 - 64
60 - 64 55 - 59 55 - 59
55 - 59 50 - 54 50 - 54
50 - 54 45 - 49 45 - 49
45 - 49 40 - 44 40 - 44
40 - 44 35 - 39 35 - 39
35 - 39 30 - 34
30 - 34 30 - 34
25 - 29 25 - 29 25 - 29
20 - 24 20 - 24 20 - 24
15 - 19 15 - 19 15 - 19
10 - 14 10 - 14 10 - 14
5-9 5-9 5-9
0-4 0-4 0-4
0
525,000
420,000
315,000
210,000
105,000
105,000
210,000
315,000
420,000
525,000
0
200,000
160,000
120,000
120,000
160,000
200,000
80,000
40,000
40,000
80,000
2,250,000
1,800,000
1,350,000
1,350,000
1,800,000
2,250,000
900,000
450,000
450,000
900,000
females males females males females males
JAPAN SINGAPORE SOUTH KOREA 5

Number of Car Sales
900,000
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
Units
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: The Association of Indonesia Automotive Industries (GAIKINDO)
6
Number of Motorcycle Sales
9,000,000
8,000,000
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
Units
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: The Association of Indonesia Automotive Industries (GAIKINDO)
7
Number of Domestic Tourist to Bali
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
People
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Survey Result By Bali Government Tourism Office
8
Infrastructure
Jakarta Gridlock
10
Transportation Infrastructure Needed
Sumatera ($7.3 billion) Kalimantan ($4.2 billion) Sulawesi ($0.53 billion)

Railway : $6.1 billion Railway : $3.1 billion Port : $0.53 billion
Port : $0.79 billion Port : $0.88 billion
Airport : $0.35 billion Airport : $0.26 billion
Java ($14.6 billion) Bali – Nusa Tenggara($1.3 billion) Papua - Maluku ($5.2 billion)
Railway : $9.2 billion Railway : $1.05 billion Port : $5.2 billion
Port : $3.9 billion Airport : $0.26 billion Airport : $17.5 million
Airport : $1.4 billion 11
Outer Ring Road and MRT
12
Mass Rapid Transit (MRT)
Scheduled for operation in 2018
13
Mass Rapid Transit (MRT)
14
Monorail
15
Plan of Airport Railway
16
Jakarta Retail and
Mixed-Use Project
Opportunities In Retail & Mixed-Use
Premium Malls
Pacific Place,
Senayan City Plaza Senayan
Asking Base Rental for Office
100% Building which is integrated to the
95% mall
90% Plaza Indonesia
85% Asking
Office Building Rent/sq
80%
Grand Indonesia m/month
75%
70%
One Pacific Place USD66.00
65%
60%
The Plaza USD55.00
55%
50%
Sentral Senayan USD55.00
IDR 100,000
IDR 200,000
IDR 300,000
IDR 400,000
IDR 500,000
IDR 600,000
IDR 700,000
IDR 800,000
IDR 900,000
IDR 1,000,000
IDR 1,100,000
IDR 1,200,000
IDR 1,300,000
IDR 1,400,000
IDR 0
Menara BCA USD55.00
Plaza Indonesia Plaza Senayan Senayan City Pacific Place Grand Indonesia
1990, project ext. 2009 1995 2006 2008 2008
Malls in Township
Supermal Karawaci
100%
95%
90% Mal Kelapa Gading
Pondok Indah Mal
85%
80%
75%
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
1,000,000
1,100,000
1,200,000
1,300,000
1,400,000
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
0
Mall Kelapa Gading I - V Pondok Indah Mall 1& 2 Supermal Karawaci AEON Mall
1990, 1995, 2002 & 2009 1991 & 2005 1995, project ext. 2008 2014*
19
Lifestyle Malls
Cilandak Town Square

100%
95%
90%
85%
80% Lotte Shopping Avenue
75%
70%
65%
60% Kuningan City
55%
50%
IDR 1,000,000
IDR 1,100,000
IDR 1,200,000
IDR 1,300,000
IDR 1,400,000
IDR 100,000
IDR 200,000
IDR 300,000
IDR 400,000
IDR 500,000
IDR 600,000
IDR 700,000
IDR 800,000
IDR 900,000
IDR 0
Cilandak Town Square Kuningan City Lotte Shopping Avenue

2002 2011 2013
20
Mall on Major Toll Road Visible Location
Mal Taman Anggrek

100%
95%
90%
85% Central Park
80% ST Moritz Mall*
75%
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
IDR 400,000
IDR 1,000,000
IDR 1,100,000
IDR 1,200,000
IDR 1,300,000
IDR 1,400,000
IDR 100,000
IDR 200,000
IDR 300,000
IDR 500,000
IDR 600,000
IDR 700,000
IDR 800,000
IDR 900,000
IDR 0
Mal Taman Anggrek Central Park ST Moritz Mall

1996 2009 2014*
21
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
IDR 0
IDR 100,000
IDR 200,000
Next Wave DKI Fringe Mixed-Use Project
IDR 300,000
2013
IDR 400,000
ST Moritz Mall*
Baywalk
IDR 500,000
Baywalk
IDR 600,000
IDR 700,000
IDR 800,000
IDR 900,000
2014*
ST Moritz Mall
IDR 1,000,000
IDR 1,100,000
IDR 1,200,000
IDR 1,300,000
IDR 1,400,000
22
Major Developers
# Project
Land bank
Developer
(ha) Shopping
Apartment Office Hotel
Center
Agung Podomoro Land 990 24 5 9 16
Kuningan City, Satrio, South Central Park, S. Parman, West Green Bay, Pluit, North Senayan City, Senayan, South
Jakarta Jakarta Jakarta Jakarta
23
Major Developers
# Project
Land bank
Developer
(ha) Shopping
Center
Ciputra 4,000 7 2 4 5
Ciputra World, Satrio, South Citraland, S.Parman, West Ciputra World, MayJend
Jakarta Jakarta Sungkono, Surabaya
24
Major Developers
# Project
Land bank
Developer
(ha) Shopping
Center
Lippo 7,326 6 4 8 31
Kemang Village, Antasari, ST Moritz, Puri Indah, West Holland Village, Cempaka
South Jakarta Jakarta Putih, Central Jakarta
25
Major Developers
# Project
Land bank
Developer
(ha) Shopping
Center
Pakuwon 368 3 3 2 6
Kota Kasablanka, Kasablanka, Gandaria City, Gandaria, Tunjungna Plaza, Basuki

South Jakarta South Jakarta Rahmat, Surabaya
26
Major Developers
# Project
Land bank
Developer
(ha) Shopping
Center
Summarecon 1,500 3 5 4 3
Summarecon Kelapa Gading, Summarecon Serpong, Summarecon Bekasi, West

East Jakarta Tangerang Java
27
• Retail malls in new townships
• Tier 2 & Tier 3 retail malls and mixed-use with local developer partners
• Transit-oriented retail development along MRT
• Lifestyle retail including F&B, sports, cinema, etc.
• Next wave of DKI fringe mixed-use projects
• Acquire under-performing retail assets and reposition, renovate and / or

expand
28
• Co-invest with major mixed-use developers on land bank for next

projects
• Aggregate retail assets into REIT structure
• Bali retail concepts to serve tourist market
• Big box retail on major tolroad visible locations
• Premium factory outlet malls
• Destination retail at amusement parks
29
Q&A
Colliers International Disclaimer: This presentation and the calculations shown herein have been prepared by The Colliers International as
World Trade Center 1, 14th Floor a guide only. Any interested party seeking to rely on the contents should undertake its own inquiries as to the
Jalan Jenderal Sudirman Kav. 29-31 accuracy of the information. Colliers International does not guarantee, warrant the accuracy or represent the
Jakarta 12920 information contained in this document and excludes unequivocally all inferred and implied terms, conditions and
Indonesia
loss of profits, business or anticipated savings.
30
warranties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damage arising there from including any

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Colliers International Indonesia

DKI Jakarta & Greater Jakarta

(*) Second most populous urban area in

JAPAN SINGAPORE SOUTH KOREA 5

Source: The Association of Indonesia Automotive Industries (GAIKINDO)

Source: The Association of Indonesia Automotive Industries (GAIKINDO)

Source: Survey Result By Bali Government Tourism Office

Sumatera ($7.3 billion) Kalimantan ($4.2 billion) Sulawesi ($0.53 billion)

Scheduled for operation in 2018

Menara BCA USD55.00

Cilandak Town Square

Cilandak Town Square Kuningan City Lotte Shopping Avenue

Mal Taman Anggrek

Mal Taman Anggrek Central Park ST Moritz Mall

Agung Podomoro Land 990 24 5 9 16

Kota Kasablanka, Kasablanka, Gandaria City, Gandaria, Tunjungna Plaza, Basuki

Summarecon Kelapa Gading, Summarecon Serpong, Summarecon Bekasi, West

• Retail malls in new townships

• Transit-oriented retail development along MRT

• Lifestyle retail including F&B, sports, cinema, etc.

• Next wave of DKI fringe mixed-use projects

• Acquire under-performing retail assets and reposition, renovate and / or

• Co-invest with major mixed-use developers on land bank for next

• Aggregate retail assets into REIT structure

• Bali retail concepts to serve tourist market

• Big box retail on major tolroad visible locations

• Premium factory outlet malls

• Destination retail at amusement parks

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