Bruton, M. J. 1970. Chapter 4: Trip Distribution.

Introduction to
Transportation Planning. Hutchinson Technical Education: London. pp. 97-
129.

Part I: Growth Factor Methods

General Notation and Formula

Tij2010 = T stands for flows

subscript three possibilities
ij = flow from i to j
i = total outflows or inflows i
= (blank) totals trips
superscript three possibilities
2010 = year of flow
k = iteration
0 = current data

Tij2010 = Tij2002 * E

Tij2002 = Trips from i to j in 2002

Tij2010 = Future Trips i to j in 2010

E = Growth (Adjustment) Factor

 This method can be used to generate trips in both directions (i>j and j>i) usually assume inflows
equal outflows in 24hrs.
 Growth can be simple of complex
o can be based on single factor (population)
o or combination of factors
 land use
 immigration
 class shifts
 commuting ease

4 Types of Trip Distribution Growth Factors

1. Uniform Factor
2. Average " "
3. Fratar
4. Detroit

Uniform Method: Future Flow = Present x Growth Factor

Givens

Tij2002 = Today's flows (other ways of writing

this include (Tij2002 = tij = Tij0)

TiG = Trip Generation Output for Future (Trip

Ends)

Assumption

Tij2010 = Tji2010 Projected Inflows equal

Projected Outflows (24hr. model)

Formulas

E = TiG / Tij2002 = TG / T2002

TG = Total Trips at Future Date

T2002 = Total Trips Today

Tij2010 = Tij2002 * E

Tij2010 = Flow from i to j in future (year 2010)

Step 1: Determine the Uniform Growth Factor

Step 2: Apply factor to all current flows

Average Method: Future Flow = Present x Growth Factor

Givens

Tij2002 = Today's flows (other ways of writing this include ( tij = Tij0) or flows before iterations

TiG = Trip Generation Output for Future (Trip Ends)

= Tolerances lower (1) and upper (2)

Assumption

Tij2010 = Tji2010 Projected Inflows equal

Projected Outflows (24hr. model)

Formulas
Eik-1 = TiG / Tik-1 = = TiG / Tijk-1

TiG = Total Trip Generation at i in Future Date

Tik-1 = Total Trips for iteration k at i

Tijk = Tijk-1 * [(Eik-1 =Ejk-1 )/2]

Tijk = Flow from i to j for iteration k (represents future)

Step 1: Run Trip Generation Model

Step 2: Determine first estimate of "Average Growth Factors"

k=1 Ei1-1 = TiG / Ti1-1 = TiG / Ti2002

Step 3: Apply first set of ave. growth factors to all current flows

k = 1 Tijk = Tijk-1 * [(Eik-1 + Ejk-1 )/2]

Tij1 = Tij0 * [(Ei0 + Ej0 )/2]

Step 4: Check for closure