GROUP PROJECT

Technical analysis

18S701 – Abhijeet

18F505 - Akanksha Gupta

18S640 – Sagar Senapati

18S735 – Rahul Iyer

18S739 – Ria Singh

US 10Y T Notes Futures

 Bullish B harmonics can be traced between mid-2019 to end-2019, for which the support is tested between
127 - 128 range.
 Using Fibonacci retracement from the low at 117.42 on October 2018 till high of 131.93 on October 2019,
which estimates it to further hold support between 127 - 128 range.
 The Fibonacci extension predict a high of 134.52.
 The trend is bullish and have a decent upside potential.

Current Price = 129.34

Target

1.618 * 3.89 + 129.34 = 134.52

Stop Loss

 First stop loss at 128

 If it breaches the first support, then the stop loss should be set at 126.4 – 127 range.

Reward to Risk

 For stop loss 1,

Reward = 5.18

Risk = 1.34

Reward to Risk ratio = 3.86

 For stop loss 2,

Reward = 5.18
Risk = 2.94

Reward to Risk Ratio = 1.76

S&P 500

 Using Elliott waves, it was found that the current uptrend is in the third wave of intermediate third wave of
primary third wave – 3(iii) of (3). Hence, it is a highly bullish rally with a huge upside potential.
 First target is set at 1.618 times the measure of wave 1 of intermediate wave 3 of primary 3.
 Second target is set at 2.618 times of the measure of wave 1 of intermediate wave 3 of primary 3.
 Trailing stop loss is considered – first at wave 2 of intermediate wave of primary 3 and second at wave 2 of
primary 3.

Current price = 3283.15

Target –

1. 201.73 *1.618 +2965.45 = 3291.84 - wave 3(1)

2. 201.73 * 2.618 + 2965.45 = 3517.14 - wave 3(1)

Stop loss –

1. 2856.47 – wave 3(3) (ii)

2. 2728.94 – Wave 2

Reward to Risk

 Target 2 stop loss 1

Reward = 551.69

Risk = 108.98

Reward to risk ratio = 5.06

 Target 2 stop loss 2

Reward = 551.69

Risk = 236.51

Reward to risk ratio = 2.33

 The chart manifests a bearish trend, hence a short sell strategy will be appropriate in an investment horizon
of 3 months.
 Bearish engulfing pattern is formed at high of start of January.
 Using Fibonacci retracements at high at beginning of 2020 and low at August 2019, it was estimated that 1st
support level is at 1502 to 1504 level and 2nd support at 1477 to 1481.94 level.
 The Fibonacci extension at high of October 2019 and low of end of 2019, which estimated the target for
short sell to be 1621.85

Current Price = 1550.19

Target to short sell = 1621.85

Target to buy = 1502 and 1477

Stop loss

2*108.31 + 1550.19 = 1766.81

Reward to Risk

Reward = 119.85

Risk = 71.66

Reward to Risk ratio = 1.67

Reward = 144.85

Risk = 71.66

Reward to Risk ratio = 2.02

USD/CNY-China Renminbi

There has been major price action in the current strata of price range. There is Hidden Positive Divergence in RSI and
using the Fibonacci Extensions and Retracements, we get the target price and stop loss as the following-

Target Price = 7.3390

Stop Loss = 6.8390

Reward to Risk = (7.3390-6.8909)/(6.8909-6.8390)

= 0.4481/ 0.0519

= 8.63
NIFTY 50 (INR)

We can see the impulse Elliott wave over the course of last 2 years. After the completion of the impulse wave, we
see a running flat, which in conjunction with the first impulse wave forms the primary wave 1. Using Fibonacci
Extensions, we have calculated the target price and stop loss.

Target Price = 12758

Stop Loss = 12050

Reward to Risk = (12758-12340)/(12340-12050)

= 418/ 290

= 1.44

The reward to risk ratio is low comparatively as the volatility is quite high and price movement is restricted.