222| United States The current economic expansion has become the longest on record but economic growth is now slowing, parlly due to increased tariffs on imported goods and high trade tensions. The labour market has created many new jobs and unemployment has fallen to historically very low rates. Rising real wages and high asset prices are supporting average household income and consumption growth. On the other hand, in addition to intense trade tensions and uncertainty, the combined effects of a waning fiscal impulse, weaker growth in trading partners, and demographic pressures are weighing on confidence and activity The Federal Reserve has acted to meet its dual employment and inflation mandate, With inflation returning to target only slowly and inflation expectations slipping, no changes to interest rates are projected, which may help meet the inflation target symmetrically, With large budget deficits and unsustainable long-run fiscal trends, the federal government has limited space to support the economy. Reducing barriers to finding jobs ‘would help boost labour supply and productivity. The economy is slowing Investment and trade are slowing due to heightened uncertainty and weak demand from foreign markets, denting growth prospects. New trade measures implemented in September and those scheduled to be introduced in December 2019 on USD 300 billion imports from China have increased uncertainty, which is. weighing on confidence, business investment and industrial production. The effect of new trade measures will also depress consumption growth and temporarily boost inflation. These effects are compounded by weak demand from trading partners. United States 1 Job growth is slowing Uncertainty is weighing on investinent etlaboutoce Yoo Hehanget Ie, 90 MA 8010 ley ccotaey ne = 10 3 eAQoe 0 so so 6 10 2s a4 100 ° ae oe Ie a a a Source: OECD Economic Outlook 106 dalabaso; US Bureau of Labor Stats; and Rint ‘StatLink segm hips/soom!0.1787868034046057 (OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, VOLUME 2019 ISSUE 2: PRELIMINARY VERSION © OECD 2019United States: Demand, output and prices [223 United States "no (zara es) {GDP at markt prices weriso 24-2923 20 20 Private consumption mas 28 30 25 23 20 Government consumption pee 08 17 192118 ‘Gross fxd capital formation 376937 41 19 21 38 Final domestic demand soma 925-30 24 2224 Stocxbulcing”| 21 09 91 02 01 90 “otal domestic demand seme 26 31 25 22 21 Exports of goods ana services 2208 35 30 01 07 19 Imports of goods ana services 2784 47 48 1821 30 Net exports 188-03 03 03 92 02 Wemerandum ams (GOP detator Personal consumption expenditures defttor (Core personal consumpton expenditures defator™ Unorployment at (% of abour force) Household saving rato, net of espasable income) Genera goverment franca balance (% of GOP) (General govemment gross debt (% of GOP) (Curent account balance (5 of GOP) 1. Covttnseeange ne CP, aca amount he a cour 2. Deter rte consumption exng fed an ne. United States 2 Fiscal policy fs running large defets 43 tose 1059 1084 1119 1153 49 24 48 22 22 went 18 2128 18 20 17 22 28 4439 a7 38 37 10 77 1 79 80 47-70 69 49 23 24 25 25 28 ‘StatLink sm pss om!0.s787Bene940469 Intation ie eeturning to targot Yom mane ‘1 Ganorl governmont shows the consolidated (Le. wih ina-governmant amounts nat out) accounts fora evs of govemmont (cena sls stataoal bared on OECD national ecouts, This measure ifr rom fhe federal dtthald by the puble, which wes 77.8% of GOP for ‘he 2018 fiscal year, 2, Personal Consumption Expenditures pric index. Source: OECD Eeonomic Outlook 106 deabese. ‘StatLin mea Nips om/0 1787/86880404807 (OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, VOLUME 2019 ISSUE 2: PRELIMINARY VERSION © OECD 2018