Sino-Pak Relations: CPEC, the Belt and Road

Initiative and the Politics of Trade Corridors

Dr. Shah Rukh Hashmi

Assistant Professor-Current Affairs
Sukkur-IBA University, Sukkur
Email: sr.hashmi@iba-suk.edu.pk
 Over all Background
• Creation of India and Pakistan
August 1947
• Completion of revolution in
ROC and PRC ?
ROC: Taiwan founded by Chiang Kai-shek,
China October 1949
PRC: China, Mainland China founded by
• Kashmir was in UNSC it was Mao Zedong
inevitable to recognize China
• Regional Security
Architecture; Arrangements of
buffer zones between British
India and China
• McMahan Line, Sikkim,
Bhutan, Tibet, Nepal and
Kashmir.
• Regions and Power by Barry
Buzan, Nehru failure to
neutralize China and manage
buffers.

• Currency Devolution and Coal
Crisis
• Jute and Cotton for Coal, need for
market
• SEATO, containment and
suspicions between Pakistan and
China
• Bandung Conference of Afro-
Asian Countries 1955
• 1958 Regime Change in Pakistan
and Combined Defense notion
from Pakistan, rejected by India
and criticized by China
• Sino-Indian and Sino-Soviet rifts
“Our main and only purpose was to
safeguard the safety and security of
Pakistan and we needed support from
like-minded and peace-loving
nations. We have never made any
secret of the fact that we apprehended
a threat to our security from India.”
Muhammad Ali Bogra, Bandung
1955
• 1956: PM visit to China
responded by Premier Zhou
Enlai
• 1957: Tibet Crisis and rise
of Sino Indian Rivalry
 Founding Friendship
• 1962 Sino Indian war, western
assistance to India, annoyed
Pakistan
• Border Treaty between China and
Pakistan March 1963
• Trade Agreement January 1963
• 1964 Premier Zhou Enlai paid
visit to Pakistan and declared open
support for Kashmir.
• Though Islamabad was under
pressure form Washington,
Pakistan not only improved
relations with China but also with
the Soviets.
July, 1963: In case of Indian
Attack, Pak would not be alone
as it would involve “the
territorial integrity and security
of largest state in Asia”.
The-then FM Bhutto
• March 1965: President visited
China a warm reception
• Pak-Campaign for China’s seat
in UNSC and UN membership
• 1965 War: China enforcement of
Borders with Indian and
declaration the latter aggressor
• Chinese ultimatum: Sep 16, to
dismantle military work on China
border and return live stocks and
captives within three days.
 Bridging Sino-US Rapprochement
• Vietnam War, Taiwan Crisis and
Need for normalization between
US and China
• Nixon visited Pakistan in 1969
made a request to channelize
peace process
• July 1971, Kissinger made a
secret visit to Beijing from • “China would intervene with
Islamabad arms and men.” Kissinger
shared with Yahya Khan.
• Dec, 1971 War, wrong • China would support Pakistan
expectations and would not be an idle
spectator.
• Cultural Revolution within China • Zhou message by Chinese
and Indo-Soviet Treaty …… Ambassador to Pakistan
 Appraisal
• US stopped military equipment supply to both India and
Pakistan in Sept 1965, hampered more to Pakistan
• Convinced Islamabad to have multiple sources of supply
and China fulfilled that vacuum
• For China, Pakistan was a good recipient of Chinese
military equipment and in return could offer access to
western technology. Coming years both assisted Nuclear
and Missile Technologies too.
• Thus forming a relationship that favors both and ties both in
long term relations.
• Although US was tilted towards Pakistan in 1971 war,
Pakistan defends China’s failure to rescue and ignore US
favors.
• By 1982 China occupied significant
position in defense setup of Pakistan. 75
percent of Tank force and 65 percent of air
force.
• June 1978 opening up of Karakorum
Highway
• Pakistan gained $620 million from China
as aid by 1980
• In 2010 floods China offered $247 million
aid of which $10 million was in cash.
• FoDP: China had no pledge whereas US
and allies promised $5 billion.
• 2008 China offered $500 million to
Pakistan
• Military aid Package $700
Million four naval frigates, Six
helicopters.
• JF-17 a cheap cost but standard
aircraft. One third of the price for
comparable aircrafts.
• In 2001, US Satellite captured an
image of shipment to Pakistan,
allegedly part of Shaheen-I and II.
• In Kargil war China did not
enter into conflict rather favored
a bilateral solution
• Between 2008 to 2012 Pakistan
imported 55 percent of Chinese
weapons export.

It is natural for neighbors to have dispute, keeping the larger picture in mind, if
certain issues cannot be resolved for the time being , they may be shelved
temporarily, to have normalization.
President Jiang Zemin, address to Pakistan’s Parliament, December 1996
The Belt and Road
• “One Belt, One Road” (一带一路), or
now formally the Belt and Road
Initiative; the BRI is the most
prominent phenomenon of
international politics.
• The BRI Policy is aimed at
promoting the economic prosperity of
the countries along the Belt and Road,
regional economic cooperation,
strengthening exchanges, mutual
learning between different
civilizations, and promote world
peace and development.
• It upholds the Five Principles of
Peaceful Coexistence: mutual respect
for each other's sovereignty and
territorial integrity, mutual non-
aggression, mutual non-interference
in each other's internal affairs,
equality and mutual benefit, and
peaceful coexistence.
The Belt and Road

Ancient Silk Route

 Regional Connectivity
• “The level and effectiveness of regional
networks to facilitate flows of goods, services,
people, and knowledge” ought to integrate
both physical and non-physical parameters to
offer the most cost- and time-effective
multimodal systems”. Qu Xing
 The OBOR to the BRI
• Strategy for (extra) regional connectivity
Past Precedents
• Silk Route Economic Belt + Maritime Silk
Route = OBOR • Berlin Baghdad Rail
• $1.4 trillion cost, about 12 times larger than Project
the Marshall Plan, which was about $120 • British Supply Route
billion in present value. for India
• China will build 81,000 kilometers (about • Post-War
International System
50,000 miles) of high-speed railway, more
• Pan-American
than the current world total, involving 65 Highway
countries. • Marshall Plan
• Network of Ports From South China Sea in • INSTC
Pacific, Indian Ocean to Mediterranean Sea.

Respect for mutual non-

sovereignty& mutual non- equality mutual benefit
interference in
territorial integrity aggression
internal affairs
 CPEC and The BRI
• ‘If ‘One Belt, One Road’ is like a symphony
involving and benefiting every country, then
construction of the China-Pakistan Economic
Corridor is the sweet melody of the symphony’s first
movement.’ Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister

CPEC
 China-Pakistan Relations
• History of more than 6 decades
• Pakistan: 1st state in the Islamic World recognizing PRC in 1949
• Pakistan’s Crucial role in Sino-US Rapprochement in 1971
• May, 2013 Li Kiqiang’s Visit and proposal of Economic/Trade corridor
• 2015 has been termed as the Year of Friendly Exchanges between
China and Pakistan
• Xi Jinping ‘Pakistan and China's struggles have brought their hearts
and minds together, Pakistan was with us when China stood isolated’
• For China, Pakistan is a gateway to the Gulf States and Middle East
• Xi’s visit saw 51 agreements signed, among them the pledge of $46
billion in investment. Now about $ 62 billion
• CPEC proposed under the initiative of OBOR/ BRI
• Shortest route to Gulf region
• PLAN becomes Two Ocean’s Navy
• Pakistan being located at a unique
geographical location offers route to
connect the continental road with the
maritime route of the BRI through
southern corridor.
• The China Pakistan Economic
Corridor (CPEC) would materialize
this potential of Pakistan as Pakistan
and China shares a border along 520
kilometer and Gwadar port connects
to the Arabian Sea.
• Furthermore Pakistan is a gateway to
the Gulf States and Middle East,
where China seeks to showcase its
soft power, and develop trade and
diplomatic links, obviously the same
Pakistan looking for itself too.
 Government and People’s Response to CPEC and China

• President of Pakistan:
“the corridor will be monument of the
century benefitting billions of people
throughout the region”.
• MNS, Ex. PM Pakistan:
– As an important part of “OBOR
initiative” CPEC “will bring huge
economic and development benefits
not just to our two countries but the
entire region and beyond”
– “a game changer” not only for China
and Pakistan but the entire region.
– PM Imran Khan; China is like a
window of fresh oxygen and
friendship of hope and prosperity.
• “All Parties Conference” (APC):
consensus
 CPEC Debate and Federating Units
• CPEC another EIC? This view came from Senator Tahir Mashhadi, the-
then Chairman of the Senate Standing Committee on Planning and
Development, who specifically voiced concerns about the exorbitant loans
Pakistan will need to pay back to China for CPEC. Debt Trap?

• China Pakistan Economic Corridor or China Punjab…..

• Demands for Transparency and declassification of projects and plans

• Route Controversies

• Political Division and unrest in federating units

• Social Unrest; Cross Cultural marriages and Criminal Syndicates

• Labor employment and more issues

 Domestic Conflict and Suggested
Mechanism
• Stage one is evident in state
like Pakistan where small
Execution leads
federating units are always to Peace and
entrapped in conflict with Development
comparative larger unit and felt
marginalized. Confidence
Building mutual
• Stage two achieved through Consultation and
fair distribution
open discussion, transparency
and some time generous
offerings by the larger units. ie
NFC award.
Inception of
• Stage three the most awaited is Plan and
achieved only after first two Differences
being dealt.
 Socio-Economic Impacts of CPEC
• CPEC will change the economic geography of Pakistan
“This is Pakistan's first opportunity since the 1960 Indus Water Treaty to
change its economic geography”. Dr. Kaisar Bengali
• Development in the Western regions of Pakistan and China
– Bond of strength to Western part of Both Pakistan and China
• Energy requirement for Pak
– 8000 MW shortfall of electricity causing panic and trouble in Pakistan
under CPEC it will invest in electricity projects will be operationalized
including Hydro, Solar, Wind and Coal.
– Qaid-e-Azam Solar Park in Bahawalpur (Functional)
• Marginalized, less developed with low density of population, Baluchistan
will be internationalized due to Gwadar Port,
• Kyrgyzstan and Post-Sanctions Iran shown willingness to be the part of
CPEC.
• More connectivity and integration, more trade and development.
 Internal Challenges to CPEC in Pakistan

• Political Divide
– Over route (which should be operationalized first)
– Political Instability (Dharnas etc)
– Divide between the Center and Provinces
• Controversy over Local resources and their ownership
– Local people are displaced from the area
– They are not given jobs
– Creates conflict
• Security Threats
– Militancy
– Baloch Liberation Front
– Baloch Liberation Army
• Role of Fifth columnists
– Propaganda
– Negative Chinese Image as colonizer
– De-tract development opportunities
 External Challenges
• Conflict ridden areas along Western alignment
• Recent episode of Kunduz and saturation of Taliban in North
Eastern Afghanistan
• ETIM militants in Xingjian Autonomous region and their
assumed presence in Pakistan
• Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)
• Renminbi crisis

• External
– Declared policy of Indian P.M (Northern Alignment passes
through Gilget Baltistan and increased presence of PLA in
Development projects in Kashmir)
– offering a plan for a direct India-China Silk Route Corridor
(ICSRC) that could run along the traditional Ladakh-
Xinjiang axis
 Conclusion
• Sino-Pak friendship should deliver in people’s
prosperity
• CPEC related issues in Pakistan should be dealt in the
light of constitutional provisions.
• Mutual Trust and confidence should reach to civil setup
of Pakistan too.
• Pakistan should open up with more windows of
opportunities and should not rely merely on China. As
the proverbs goes, ‘Islamabad should not put all eggs in
one’s Basket ie relying on Beijing only’.
• Transparency and openness must be practiced in all
projects under CPEC so that real vision be achieved.
BRI-Mapping Distances
Cont.…..
 Regional Rivalries: External Oppositions and
alternative visions of other States
India
• India appeared to be the only Major
Power that did not participated in the BRI
Summit in May in 2017 and 2019.
• Negated transparency and questioned
legitimacy of CPEC in lieu of the projects
passing from AJK owing to its disputed
sovereignty.
• Started working on Chabahar port of Iran
as an alternative to BRI and favored
Japanese plus Russian sponsored ideas of
connectivity i.e. INSTC
• BIM corridor and more likewise
 Russia’s Vision of Connectivity and Trade
Corridors/ Routes
• The Eurasian Economic
Union, integrated together
with Kazakhstan, Belarus
and Armenia, and is
considering strengthening
this group through
economic and diplomatic
ties with the belt and road
plan.
• Its geo-economic goals
include expanding its
natural gas pipelines to
China. And have some
working on North Sea
Route
 Iran’s Vision of Regional Integration/ Corridors

• More or less resembles with India’s

connectivity policy towards Europe
and the Global North.
• It tries to become bridge between
many regions it connects ie; Central
Asia and Middle East, Middle East
and South Asia, Asia with Turkey
and China with Middle East.
• Iran is part of the Ashgabat
Agreement, a multimodal transport
pact between Kazakhstan,
Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan,
Pakistan, India and Oman to
facilitate the transport of goods
between Central Asia and the
Persian Gulf.
 The EU’s Vision
• The European Union, with its highly
developed infrastructure, is seeking to
expand and develop links through a number
of initiatives.
• The Trans-European Transport Network
consists of nine corridors across its
expanse, with more than half focused on
expanding its connections to Asia.
• Likewise, the European Union has several
agreements, most notably the Euro-
Mediterranean Partnership and the Eastern
Partnership, aimed at extending relations
beyond its borders.
• The EU-China Connectivity Platform
Short-Term Action Plan strengthens
cooperation between China's belt and road
scheme and the EU's Trans-European
Transport Network's policy, promoting the
development of structures for a relevant
corridor between all regions along the route
 Japan’s Vision
• Having strong bilateral ties with the
US and the West. Japan is trying to
connect to Asia and engage Asia in
development and look for
partnership in sustainable economic
prosperity.
• Founder of Asian Development
Bank and champion of
Transparency in Asia, Japan holds
high echelon of Democratic
principles and Human Rights
record.
• It could offer real democratic
consolidation and contribute for
sustainable growth.
 Korea’s Vision beyond Borders
• The South Korean
government aims to
strengthen relations with the
ASEAN member countries
through its New Southern
Policy, which also includes
cooperation with its northern
neighbors and the
northeastern region of China.
• Projects include the
development of port
infrastructure, railways,
natural gas pipelines and
electricity grids.
 ASEAN BLOC
• The 10 countries that make up
this geo-economic group
propose, with their Master Plan
on ASEAN Connectivity 2025,
to develop key infrastructure.
• These include the improvement
of ports to strengthen the
Maritime Economic Corridor,
highways to connect the great
sub-region of the Mekong, and
a railway project between
Singapore and the Chinese city
of Kunming.
Thank you!